Patrick C. Longley
Morgan C. McDonnell
James E. Reddy
Michelle P. Katoski
Olivia L. Miller
J. Renee Brooks
Annie L. Putman
2024
<p><span>The National Water Model (NWM) provides critical analyses and projections of streamflow that support water management decisions. However, the NWM performs poorly in lower-elevation rivers of the western United States (US). The accuracy of the NWM depends on the fidelity of the model inputs and the representation and calibration of model processes and water sources. To evaluate the NWM performance in the western US, we compared observations of river water isotope ratios (</span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>18</sup></span><span>O </span><span id="MathJax-Element-1-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mo>/</mo></math>"></span><span> </span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>16</sup></span><span>O and </span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span><span>H </span><span id="MathJax-Element-2-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mo>/</mo></math>"></span><span> </span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>1</sup></span><span>H expressed in </span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i></span><span> notation) to NWM-flux-estimated (model) river reach isotope ratios. The modeled estimates were calculated from long-term (2000–2019) mean summer (June, July, and August) NWM hydrologic fluxes and gridded isotope ratios using a mass balance approach. The observational dataset comprised 4503 in-stream water isotope observations in 877 reaches across 5 basins. A simple regression between observed and modeled isotope ratios explained 57.9 % (</span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>18</sup></span><span>O) and 67.1 % (</span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>2</sup></span><span>H) of variance, although observations were 0.5 ‰ (</span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>18</sup></span><span>O) and 4.8 ‰ (</span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>2</sup></span><span>H) higher, on average, than mass balance estimates. The unexplained variance suggest that the NWM does not include all relevant water fluxes to rivers. To infer possible missing water fluxes, we evaluated patterns in observation–model differences using </span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O<sub>diff</sub></span><span> (</span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O<sub>obs</sub>−<i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O<sub>mod</sub></span><span>) and </span><span class="inline-formula"><i>d</i><sub>diff</sub></span><span> (</span><span id="MathJax-Element-3-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M15" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><msup><mi mathvariant="italic">&#x3B4;</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msup><msub><mrow class="chem"><mi mathvariant="normal">H</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">diff</mi></msub><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">8</mn><mo>&#x22C5;</mo><msup><mi mathvariant="italic">&#x3B4;</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">18</mn></msup><msub><mrow class="chem"><mi mathvariant="normal">O</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">diff</mi></msub></mrow></math>"></span><span>). We detected evidence of evaporation in observations but not model estimates (negative </span><span class="inline-formula"><i>d</i><sub>diff</sub></span><span> and positive </span><span class="inline-formula"><i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O<sub>diff</sub></span><span>) at lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid sites. The catchment actual-evaporation-to-precipitation ratio, the fraction of streamflow estimated to be derived from agricultural irrigation, and whether a site was reservoir-affected were all significant predictors of </span><span class="inline-formula"><i>d</i><sub>diff</sub></span><span> in a linear mixed-effects model, with up to 15.2 % of variance explained by fixed effects. This finding is supported by seasonal patterns, groundwater levels, and isotope ratios, and it suggests the importance of including irrigation return flows to rivers, especially in lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid rivers of the western US.</span></p>
application/pdf
10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024
en
European Geosciences Union
Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States
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