Prakhin Assavapanuvat Michael J. Osland David A. Kaplan Yiyang Kang 2026 <p><span>The critical carbon sink provided by coastal wetlands, known as blue carbon, can be affected by multiple aspects of climate change. One important example is warming-induced mangrove poleward expansion, which is shifting dominant plant cover across tropical–temperate transitional zones and altering ecosystem structure and function. We examined how mangrove expansion affects soil organic carbon (SOC) quantity and source, using measurements of SOC density and isotopic signatures (δ</span>¹³<span>C and δ</span>¹⁵<span>N) at 15 sites across Florida’s west coast (USA). The sampled sites represent examples of three expansion stages: a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove expansion, spanning mature mangroves in the south, former ecotones at mid latitudes, and current ecotones in the north. Our analyses of soil core data indicate that mangrove expansion stage is a significant predictor of SOC density, δ</span>¹³<span>C, and δ</span>¹⁵<span>N, but not C:N ratio. Current ecotones exhibited significantly lower SOC density but higher δ</span>¹³<span>C, suggesting a greater contribution of preexisting C</span>₄<span>&nbsp;salt marshes, while no difference was found between former ecotones and mature mangroves. SOC density, δ</span>¹³<span>C, and δ</span>¹⁵<span>N were found to vary with mangrove aboveground biomass, stage, and sedimentary setting along the latitudinal gradient. For all three mangrove expansion stages, SOC density decreased with depth, but δ</span>¹³<span>C showed no vertical trend, suggesting that mangroves contributed organic carbon to the entire 20-cm soil profile. The observed regional trend of SOC across mangrove expansion stages highlights the ecological impacts of warming-driven vegetation shifts in coastal wetlands, though further evidence is needed to determine the primary drivers and mechanisms, while also considering local and regional environmental factors.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1007/s10021-025-01021-3 en Springer Variation in soil organic carbon across a latitudinal chronosequence of mangrove poleward expansion article