Jason J. Rohweder Molly Van Appledorn Shelby A. Weiss Matthew Trumper Lyle J. Guyon Nathan R. De Jager 2026 <h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" data-test="abstract-sub-heading">Context</h3><p>Different rates of floodplain forest recruitment and mortality can reveal important changes in ecosystem processes that drive forest dynamics, resulting in net changes in forest cover, thereby influencing a wide range of river habitat and morphological characteristics.</p><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" data-test="abstract-sub-heading">Objectives</h3><p>We evaluated characteristics of forest change areas in the Upper Mississippi River System.</p><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" data-test="abstract-sub-heading">Methods</h3><p>An overlay technique was used to map patches of forest loss, gain, and persistence between 2010 and 2020 in relation to a series of explanatory variables.</p><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" data-test="abstract-sub-heading">Results</h3><p>We quantified a net decline in forest cover ranging from 3.2 to 16.8% in the uppermost five study reaches, and a net increase in forest cover ranging from 0.5 to 4.6% in the southernmost three reaches. Patches of forest loss and persistence were similarly tall (&gt; 15&nbsp;m), dense (&gt; 90% cover), silver maple (<i>Acer saccharinum</i>) dominated forests, whereas forest gain patches were short (&lt; 15&nbsp;m), less dense (&lt; 66% cover) and more likely to be dominated by willow (<i>Salix)</i><span>&nbsp;</span>species. Both forest loss and gain patches were smaller than forest persistence patches and were typically found in areas with low neighborhood forest density (&lt; 50% forested 10&nbsp;ha neighborhood). Areas that experienced more than three flood events per growing season, more than 100 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event, and more than 60 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020 showed a net loss of forest cover in all study reaches. In contrast, net increases in forest cover were restricted to areas that experienced less than a single flood event per growing season, less than 40 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event and less than 30 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020.</p><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" data-test="abstract-sub-heading">Conclusions</h3><p>Forest mortality along these river reaches is associated with forest fragmentation and an increasingly wetter hydrological regime.</p> application/pdf 10.1007/s10980-025-02286-8 en Springer Patterns of floodplain forest mortality and recruitment along the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Associations with forest fragmentation and flood inundation article