Patterns of rift basin development and the fidelity of the subsidence record: Insights through Bayesian modeling of rapid tectonic subsidence in a Rio Grande rift basin, Socorro, NM, U.S.A

Earth and Planetary Science Letters
By: , and 

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Abstract

Characterizing tectonic subsidence rates within depositional sequences provides direct insight into the driving mechanism(s) of accommodation in a basin. However, the temporal resolution of this record is often stymied by a lack of high-precision and high-resolution ages, which enable a more complete description of basin subsidence drivers. We explore the effect of high-precision and high-resolution ages in modeling accommodation for the Miocene La Jencia Basin of the central Rio Grande rift (RGR) and interpret driving mechanism behavior from these models (e.g., lithospheric thinning). We present a new geochronologic dataset of both laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) and chemical abrasion-isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) data and use these ages in Bayesian accommodation modeling. Models constrained by high-precision and high-accuracy TIMS ages yield peak tectonic subsidence rates exceeding 220 m/Myr, and an average Miocene subsidence of ∼120 m/Myr. While timing and magnitude vary, all models suggest two pulses of rapid Miocene tectonic subsidence, which we interpret to reflect basin-bounding fault movement. Prior to peak subsidence, there was an initial period of fault linkage and organization that occurred over <1–3 Myr that produced the basin-bounding La Jencia-Cerro Colorado fault zone. A comparison of published tectonic subsidence rates to those modeled here shows that while tectonic subsidence during continental rifting is highly variable, the La Jencia Basin rates appear relatively high. However, the significant difference between peak and average La Jencia Basin rates modeled here highlights the potential for underestimation of many records of tectonic subsidence due to a lack of high-precision and high-resolution age constraints. Furthermore, age data and modeling results presented here document fault movement and consequent rates of tectonic subsidence that lower-resolution data would not, providing a high-fidelity case study of continental rift basin development.

Suggested Citation

Smith, T.M., Gaynor, S.P., Keller, B.C., Curry, M.E., Schoene, B., and Lapen, T.J., 2026, Patterns of rift basin development and the fidelity of the subsidence record: Insights through Bayesian modeling of rapid tectonic subsidence in a Rio Grande rift basin, Socorro, NM, U.S.A: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 689, 120097, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120097.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Patterns of rift basin development and the fidelity of the subsidence record: Insights through Bayesian modeling of rapid tectonic subsidence in a Rio Grande rift basin, Socorro, NM, U.S.A
Series title Earth and Planetary Science Letters
DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120097
Volume 689
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center
Description 120097, 16 p.
Country United States
State New Mexico
City Socorro
Other Geospatial Magdalena Mountains
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