Though the presence of a species can be unequivocally confirmed, its absence can only be inferred with a degree of probability. I used a model to calculate the minimum number of unsuccessful visits to a site that are necessary to assume that a species is absent. The model requires the probability of detection of the species per visit to be known. This probability may vary depending on habitat, year, season, the area surveyed, the population size of the species, and the observer. I studied 3 European snake species-asp viper (Vipera aspis), smooth snake (Coronella austriaca), and grass snake (Natrix natrix)-over a 5-yr (1994-1998) interval, and made 645 visits to 87 sites during their activity periods. I used a generalized logistic regression approach with random effects for years and sites to (1) estimate the probability of detection of these species from sites known to be occupied, (2) test factors affecting it, and (3) compute the minimum number of times that a site must be visited to infer the absence of the particular species. Probability of detection for all species was heavily influenced by an index of population size. For V. aspis, probability of detection increased from 0.23 to 0.50 and 0.70 in small, medium, and large populations, respectively. Similarly, probability of detection increased from 0.09 to 0.45 and 0.56 in small, medium, and large populations of C. austriaca, respectively, and from 0.11 in small to 0.25 in medium and large populations of N. natrix. Probability of detection also varied across months for all 3 species, among habitat types (C. austriaca only), and from year to year (N. natrix only). Sites with unknown occupancy status conservatively may be assumed to be occupied by small populations. I calculated that such sites need to be surveyed 12, 34, and 26 times for V. aspis, C. austriaca, and N. natrix, respectively, before assuming with 95% probability that the site is unoccupied. These results suggest that some species may be more wide-spread than thought. However, to ascertain the presence of such species at a site, search efforts need to be intensive.
","language":"English","publisher":"The Wildlife Society","doi":"10.2307/3803165","usgsCitation":"Kery, M., 2002, Inferring the absence of a species: A case study of snakes: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 66, no. 2, p. 330-338, https://doi.org/10.2307/3803165.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"330","endPage":"338","numberOfPages":"9","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":201863,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"66","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b23e4b07f02db6adfb5","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Kery, M.","contributorId":46637,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kery","given":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340653,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":5224099,"text":"5224099 - 2002 - Individual covariation in life-history traits: Seeing the trees despite the forest","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-10T15:39:19.629345","indexId":"5224099","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:54","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":740,"text":"American Naturalist","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Individual covariation in life-history traits: Seeing the trees despite the forest","docAbstract":"We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level. Our results provided confirmation of what has been suggested by other investigators: within-cohort phenotypic selection can mask senescence. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in humans and captive animals, conclusive evidence of the discrepancy between population-level and individual-level patterns of age-related variation in life-history traits is extremely rare in wild animal populations. Evolutionary studies of the influence of age on life-history traits should use approaches differentiating population level from the genuine influence of age: only the latter is relevant to theories of life-history evolution. The development of models permitting access to individual variation in fitness is a promising advance for the study of senescence and evolutionary processes.
","language":"English","publisher":"The University of Chicago Press","doi":"10.1086/324126","usgsCitation":"Cam, E., Link, W., Cooch, E., Monnat, J.#., and Danchin, E., 2002, Individual covariation in life-history traits: Seeing the trees despite the forest: American Naturalist, v. 159, no. 1, p. 96-105, https://doi.org/10.1086/324126.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"96","endPage":"105","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202217,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"France","otherGeospatial":"Brittany","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -4.9658203125,\n 47.42065432071318\n ],\n [\n -1.483154296875,\n 47.42065432071318\n ],\n [\n -1.483154296875,\n 49.001843917978526\n ],\n [\n -4.9658203125,\n 49.001843917978526\n ],\n [\n -4.9658203125,\n 47.42065432071318\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"159","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a80e4b07f02db6493c0","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cam, E.","contributorId":12952,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cam","given":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340550,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Link, W.A. 0000-0002-9913-0256","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9913-0256","contributorId":8815,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Link","given":"W.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340549,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Cooch, E.G.","contributorId":40932,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cooch","given":"E.G.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340552,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Monnat, J. #NAME?","contributorId":33019,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Monnat","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"#NAME?","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340551,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Danchin, E.","contributorId":89635,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Danchin","given":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340553,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":5224133,"text":"5224133 - 2002 - The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-29T19:57:17.547467","indexId":"5224133","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:54","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1465,"text":"Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics","docAbstract":"Optimal control theory is finding increased application in both theoretical and applied ecology, and it is a central element of adaptive resource management. One of the steps in an adaptive management process is to develop alternative models of system dynamics, models that are all reasonable in light of available data, but that differ substantially in their implications for optimal control of the resource. We explored how the form of the recruitment and survival functions in a general population model for ducks affected the patterns in the optimal harvest strategy, using a combination of analytical, numerical, and simulation techniques. We compared three relationships between recruitment and population density (linear, exponential, and hyperbolic) and three relationships between survival during the nonharvest season and population density (constant, logistic, and one related to the compensatory harvest mortality hypothesis). We found that the form of the component functions had a dramatic influence on the optimal harvest strategy and the ultimate equilibrium state of the system. For instance, while it is commonly assumed that a compensatory hypothesis leads to higher optimal harvest rates than an additive hypothesis, we found this to depend on the form of the recruitment function, in part because of differences in the optimal steady-state population density. This work has strong direct consequences for those developing alternative models to describe harvested systems, but it is relevant to a larger class of problems applying optimal control at the population level. Often, different functional forms will not be statistically distinguishable in the range of the data. Nevertheless, differences between the functions outside the range of the data can have an important impact on the optimal harvest strategy. Thus, development of alternative models by identifying a single functional form, then choosing different parameter combinations from extremes on the likelihood profile may end up producing alternatives that do not differ as importantly as if different functional forms had been used. We recommend that biological knowledge be used to bracket a range of possible functional forms, and robustness of conclusions be checked over this range.","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1357:TIOFFI]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Runge, M., and Johnson, F., 2002, The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics: Ecology, v. 83, no. 5, p. 1357-1371, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1357:TIOFFI]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"1357","endPage":"1371","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":201862,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"83","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a29e4b07f02db611c0c","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Runge, M.C. 0000-0002-8081-536X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8081-536X","contributorId":49312,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Runge","given":"M.C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340647,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Johnson, Fred A.","contributorId":93863,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnson","given":"Fred A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340648,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224125,"text":"5224125 - 2002 - Disentangling sampling and ecological explanations underlying species-area relationships","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-29T20:18:59.372253","indexId":"5224125","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:54","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1465,"text":"Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Disentangling sampling and ecological explanations underlying species-area relationships","docAbstract":"We used a probabilistic approach to address the influence of sampling artifacts on the form of species-area relationships (SARs). We developed a model in which the increase in observed species richness is a function of sampling effort exclusively. We assumed that effort depends on area sampled, and we generated species-area curves under that model. These curves can be realistic looking. We then generated SARs from avian data, comparing SARs based on counts with those based on richness estimates. We used an approach to estimation of species richness that accounts for species detection probability and, hence, for variation in sampling effort. The slopes of SARs based on counts are steeper than those of curves based on estimates of richness, indicating that the former partly reflect failure to account for species detection probability. SARs based on estimates reflect ecological processes exclusively, not sampling processes. This approach permits investigation of ecologically relevant hypotheses. The slope of SARs is not influenced by the slope of the relationship between habitat diversity and area. In situations in which not all of the species are detected during sampling sessions, approaches to estimation of species richness integrating species detection probability should be used to investigate the rate of increase in species richness with area.","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1118:DSAEEU]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Cam, E., Nichols, J., Hines, J., Sauer, J., Alpizar-Jara, R., and Flather, C., 2002, Disentangling sampling and ecological explanations underlying species-area relationships: Ecology, v. 83, no. 4, p. 1118-1130, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1118:DSAEEU]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"1118","endPage":"1130","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":203101,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Maryland","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -79.541015625,\n 39.16414104768742\n ],\n [\n -79.013671875,\n 39.26628442213066\n ],\n [\n -78.0908203125,\n 39.470125122358176\n ],\n [\n -77.255859375,\n 38.8225909761771\n ],\n [\n -75.76171875,\n 37.055177106660814\n ],\n [\n -75.05859375,\n 38.51378825951165\n ],\n [\n -75.5419921875,\n 38.54816542304656\n ],\n [\n -75.6298828125,\n 39.67337039176558\n ],\n [\n -79.62890625,\n 39.740986355883564\n ],\n [\n -79.541015625,\n 39.16414104768742\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"83","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a81e4b07f02db64a428","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cam, E.","contributorId":12952,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cam","given":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340617,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Nichols, J.D. 0000-0002-7631-2890","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-2890","contributorId":14332,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nichols","given":"J.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340618,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Hines, J.E. 0000-0001-5478-7230","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5478-7230","contributorId":36885,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hines","given":"J.E.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":340620,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Sauer, J.R. 0000-0002-4557-3019","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4557-3019","contributorId":66197,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sauer","given":"J.R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340621,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Alpizar-Jara, R.","contributorId":35434,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Alpizar-Jara","given":"R.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340619,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Flather, C.H.","contributorId":73161,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Flather","given":"C.H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340622,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":5220523,"text":"5220523 - 2002 - Conditions and limitations on learning in the adaptive management of mallard harvests","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-02T17:16:07","indexId":"5220523","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:54","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3779,"text":"Wildlife Society Bulletin","onlineIssn":"1938-5463","printIssn":"0091-7648","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Conditions and limitations on learning in the adaptive management of mallard harvests","docAbstract":"In 1995, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service adopted a protocol for the adaptive management of waterfowl hunting regulations (AHM) to help reduce uncertainty about the magnitude of sustainable harvests. To date, the AHM process has focused principally on the midcontinent population of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), whose dynamics are described by 4 alternative models. Collectively, these models express uncertainty (or disagreement) about whether harvest is an additive or a compensatory form of mortality and whether the reproductive process is weakly or strongly density-dependent. Each model is associated with a probability or 'weight,' which describes its relative ability to predict changes in population size. These Bayesian probabilities are updated annually using a comparison of population size predicted under each model with that observed by a monitoring program. The current AHM process is passively adaptive, in the sense that there is no a priori consideration of how harvest decisions might affect discrimination among models. We contrast this approach with an actively adaptive approach, in which harvest decisions are used in part to produce the learning needed to increase long-term management performance. Our investigation suggests that the passive approach is expected to perform nearly as well as an optimal actively adaptive approach, particularly considering the nature of the model set, management objectives and constraints, and current regulatory alternatives. We offer some comments about the nature of the biological hypotheses being tested and describe some of the inherent limitations on learning in the AHM process.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Wildlife Society Bulletin","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service","collaboration":"5871_Johnson.pdf","usgsCitation":"Johnson, F., Kendall, W., and Dubovsky, J., 2002, Conditions and limitations on learning in the adaptive management of mallard harvests: Wildlife Society Bulletin, v. 30, no. 1, p. 176-185.","productDescription":"176-185","startPage":"176","endPage":"185","numberOfPages":"10","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":196163,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":17523,"rank":200,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.jstor.org/stable/3784651","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}}],"volume":"30","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b14e4b07f02db6a4788","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Johnson, Fred A.","contributorId":93863,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnson","given":"Fred A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":331955,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Kendall, W. L. 0000-0003-0084-9891","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0084-9891","contributorId":32880,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kendall","given":"W. L.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":331953,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Dubovsky, J.A.","contributorId":50242,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dubovsky","given":"J.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":331954,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":5224369,"text":"5224369 - 2002 - Determining the trophic guilds of fishes and macroinvertebrates in a seagrass food web","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-01-10T16:52:56.937746","indexId":"5224369","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:39","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1583,"text":"Estuaries","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Determining the trophic guilds of fishes and macroinvertebrates in a seagrass food web","docAbstract":"We established trophic guilds of macroinvertebrate and fish taxa using correspondence analysis and a hierarchical clustering strategy for a seagrass food web in winter in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. To create the diet matrix, we characterized the trophic linkages of macroinvertebrate and fish taxa. present in Hatodule wrightii seagrass habitat areas within the St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge (Florida) using binary data, combining dietary links obtained from relevant literature for macroinvertebrates with stomach analysis of common fishes collected during January and February of 1994. Heirarchical average-linkage cluster analysis of the 73 taxa of fishes and macroinvertebrates in the diet matrix yielded 14 clusters with diet similarity greater than or equal to 0.60. We then used correspondence analysis with three factors to jointly plot the coordinates of the consumers (identified by cluster membership) and of the 33 food sources. Correspondence analysis served as a visualization tool for assigning each taxon to one of eight trophic guilds: herbivores, detritivores, suspension feeders, omnivores, molluscivores, meiobenthos consumers, macrobenthos consumers, and piscivores. These trophic groups, cross-classified with major taxonomic groups, were further used to develop consumer compartments in a network analysis model of carbon flow in this seagrass ecosystem. The method presented here should greatly improve the development of future network models of food webs by providing an objective procedure for aggregating trophic groups.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1007/BF02692212","usgsCitation":"Luczkovich, J., Ward, G., Johnson, J.C., Christian, R., Baird, D., Neckles, H., and Rizzo, W., 2002, Determining the trophic guilds of fishes and macroinvertebrates in a seagrass food web: Estuaries, v. 25, no. 6A, p. 1143-1163, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02692212.","productDescription":"21 p.","startPage":"1143","endPage":"1163","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":203102,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Florida","otherGeospatial":"St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -84.44847106933594,\n 30.034027713362217\n ],\n [\n -84.3804931640625,\n 30.034027713362217\n ],\n [\n -84.3804931640625,\n 30.073847754270204\n ],\n [\n -84.44847106933594,\n 30.073847754270204\n ],\n [\n -84.44847106933594,\n 30.034027713362217\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"25","issue":"6A","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4aa8e4b07f02db66739e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Luczkovich, J.J.","contributorId":35436,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Luczkovich","given":"J.J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341439,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Ward, G.P.","contributorId":58748,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ward","given":"G.P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341441,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Johnson, James C.","contributorId":78364,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnson","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341443,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Christian, R.R.","contributorId":8593,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Christian","given":"R.R.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341438,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Baird, D.","contributorId":57194,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Baird","given":"D.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341440,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Neckles, H.","contributorId":65204,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Neckles","given":"H.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341442,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Rizzo, W.M.","contributorId":104849,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rizzo","given":"W.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341444,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":5224224,"text":"5224224 - 2002 - Spatio-temporal dynamics of species richness in coastal fish communities","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2016-11-02T10:19:53","indexId":"5224224","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:39","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3174,"text":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of species richness in coastal fish communities","docAbstract":"Determining patterns of change in species richness and the processes underlying the dynamics of biodiversity are of key interest within the field of ecology, but few studies have investigated the dynamics of vertebrate communities at a decadal temporal scale. Here, we report findings on the spado-temporal variability in the richness and composition of fish communities along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast having been surveyed for more than half a century. Using statistical models incorporating non-detection and associated sampling variance, we estimate local species richness and changes in species composition allowing us to compute temporal variability in species richness. We tested whether temporal variation could be related to distance to the open sea and to local levels of pollution. Clear differences in mean species richness and temporal variability are observed between fjords that were and were not exposed to the effects of pollution. Altogether this indicates that the fjord is an appropriate scale for studying changes in coastal fish communities in space and time. The year-to-year rates of local extinction and turnover were found to be smaller than spatial differences in community composition. At the regional level, exposure to the open sea plays a homogenizing role, possibly due to coastal currents and advection.","language":"English","publisher":"Royal Society Publishing","doi":"10.1098/rspb.2002.2058","usgsCitation":"Lekve, K., Boulinier, T., Stenseth, N.C., Gjosaeter, J., Fromentin, J., Hines, J., and Nichols, J., 2002, Spatio-temporal dynamics of species richness in coastal fish communities: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, v. 269, no. 1502, p. 1781-1789, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2002.2058.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"1781","endPage":"1789","numberOfPages":"9","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":478593,"rank":1,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/1691096","text":"External Repository"},{"id":196009,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"269","issue":"1502","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2002-09-07","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e49e2e4b07f02db5e4bc2","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Lekve, K.","contributorId":49889,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lekve","given":"K.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340956,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Boulinier, T.","contributorId":37845,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Boulinier","given":"T.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340954,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Stenseth, N. C.","contributorId":7798,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Stenseth","given":"N.","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340951,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Gjosaeter, J.","contributorId":45413,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gjosaeter","given":"J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340955,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Fromentin, J-M.","contributorId":60340,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fromentin","given":"J-M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340957,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Hines, J.E. 0000-0001-5478-7230","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5478-7230","contributorId":36885,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hines","given":"J.E.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":340953,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Nichols, J.D. 0000-0002-7631-2890","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-2890","contributorId":14332,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nichols","given":"J.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340952,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":5224232,"text":"5224232 - 2002 - Demography of a population collapse: The Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-29T20:25:41.865144","indexId":"5224232","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:39","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1465,"text":"Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Demography of a population collapse: The Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)","title":"Demography of a population collapse: The Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)","docAbstract":"We studied the demography of a population of Northern Idaho ground squirrels (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus) in Adams Co., Idaho. The population was completely censused yearly from 1987 to 1999, during which time it declined from 272 to 10 animals. The finite population growth rate, based on a Leslie matrix model of average life-history parameters, was only 0.72 (i.e., significantly <1.0). Growth rate was more sensitive to proportional changes in juvenile female survival than to any other single life-history parameter. Comparisons with self-sustaining populations of closely related ground squirrel species revealed that juvenile survival and breeding rates of yearling females were anomalously low. We believe that the ultimate cause of the population's collapse was inadequacy of food resources, particularly seeds, due to drying of the habitat and changes in plant species composition, likely the result of fire suppression and grazing. No 'rescue' by immigration occurred, probably because S. b. brunneus seldom disperse long distances and fire suppression has allowed conifers to encroach on inhabited meadows, shrinking them and closing dispersal routes. The proximate cause of the population's collapse was mortality of older breeding females, which reduced the mean age of breeders. Younger females had lower average pregnancy rates and litter sizes. To place our results in context we developed a new, general classification of anthropogenic population declines, based on whether they are caused by changes in the means of the life-history parameters (blatant disturbances), their variances (inappropriate variations), or the correlations among them (evolutionary traps). Many S. b. brunneus populations have disappeared in recent years, apparently due to blatant disturbances, especially loss of habitat and changes in food-plant composition, resulting in inadequate prehibernation nutrition and starvation overwinter. In addition, our study population may have been caught in an evolutionary trap, because the vegetational cues that could potentially enable the animals to adjust reproduction to the anticipated food supply no longer correlate with availability of fat-laden seeds.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2816:DOAPCT]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Sherman, P.W., and Runge, M., 2002, Demography of a population collapse: The Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus): Ecology, v. 83, no. 10, p. 2816-2831, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2816:DOAPCT]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"2816","endPage":"2831","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":201838,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Idaho","county":"Adams County","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -116.83959960937499,\n 44.67255939212045\n ],\n [\n -116.1639404296875,\n 44.67255939212045\n ],\n [\n -116.1639404296875,\n 45.061881623213026\n ],\n [\n -116.83959960937499,\n 45.061881623213026\n ],\n [\n -116.83959960937499,\n 44.67255939212045\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"83","issue":"10","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4ab2e4b07f02db66ec99","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Sherman, P. W.","contributorId":35046,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Sherman","given":"P.","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340983,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Runge, M.C. 0000-0002-8081-536X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8081-536X","contributorId":49312,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Runge","given":"M.C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340984,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224375,"text":"5224375 - 2002 - The effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (Aroclor 1242) on thyroxine, estradiol, molt, and plumage characteristics in the American kestrel (Falco sparverius)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-01-07T16:50:55.78574","indexId":"5224375","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:39","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1571,"text":"Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"The effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (Aroclor 1242) on thyroxine, estradiol, molt, and plumage characteristics in the American kestrel (Falco sparverius)","title":"The effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (Aroclor 1242) on thyroxine, estradiol, molt, and plumage characteristics in the American kestrel (Falco sparverius)","docAbstract":"The purpose of this experiment was to determine the effects of Aroclor 1242, a mixture of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), on plumage characteristics and molt in the American kestrel, Falco sparverills. Several characteristics of plumage. including color and molt schedule, are modulated by hormonal signals and hence may be modified by endocrine-active contaminants. If so, the functions of plumage (e.g. communication for mating or territorial defense) may be compromised by exposure to such compounds. Captive American kestrels were fed Aroclor 1242 at 0. 6.0. and 60.0 ppm (n = 6 males and 6 females per treatment) mixed in their normal diet. Concentrations of plasma estradiol and thyroxine were measured weekly from the beginning of treatment. Measured plumage characteristics included width of the black subterminal band on the tail, color (a composite index of hue and saturation), reflectance from 230 to 800 min. pattern of feather loss and regrowth on the tail and wing. and timing of onset and duration of molt. Aroclor 1242 depressed plasma thyroxine. Plasma estradiol levels remained low due to the phase of the breeding cycle. Treatments did not disrupt the measured plumage characteristics. This may be due to timing or dose of exposure or to genetic factors.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/etc.5620210713","usgsCitation":"Quinn, M., French, J., McNabb, F., and Ottinger, M.A., 2002, The effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (Aroclor 1242) on thyroxine, estradiol, molt, and plumage characteristics in the American kestrel (Falco sparverius): Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, v. 21, no. 7, p. 1417-1422, https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5620210713.","productDescription":"6 p.","startPage":"1417","endPage":"1422","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":201492,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Maryland","city":"Laurel","otherGeospatial":"U.S. Geological Survey Patuxent Wildife Research Center","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -76.84112548828125,\n 39.065914339454764\n ],\n [\n -76.83382987976074,\n 39.065914339454764\n ],\n [\n -76.83382987976074,\n 39.069912673532144\n ],\n [\n -76.84112548828125,\n 39.069912673532144\n ],\n [\n -76.84112548828125,\n 39.065914339454764\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"21","issue":"7","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2002-07-01","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e49f4e4b07f02db5f072b","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Quinn, M.J.","contributorId":50990,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Quinn","given":"M.J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341469,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"French, J.B. 0000-0001-8901-7092","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8901-7092","contributorId":13944,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"French","given":"J.B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341467,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"McNabb, F.M.A.","contributorId":43462,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McNabb","given":"F.M.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341468,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Ottinger, M. A.","contributorId":99078,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ottinger","given":"M.","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341470,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":5224223,"text":"5224223 - 2002 - Proposal for adaptive management to conserve biotic integrity in a regulated segment of the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, U.S.A","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2016-11-02T10:18:51","indexId":"5224223","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:30","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1321,"text":"Conservation Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Proposal for adaptive management to conserve biotic integrity in a regulated segment of the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, U.S.A","docAbstract":"Conserving river biota will require innovative approaches that foster and utilize scientific understanding of ecosystem responses to alternative river-management scenarios. We describe ecological and societal issues involved in flow management of a section of the Tallapoosa River (Alabama, U.S.A.) in which a species-rich native fauna is adversely affected by flow alteration by an upstream hydropower dam. We hypothesize that depleted Iow flows, flow instability and thermal alteration resulting from pulsed flow releases at the hydropower dam are most responsible for changes in the Tallapoosa River biota. However, existing data are insufficient to prescribe with certainty minimum flow levels or the frequency and duration of stable flow periods that would be necessary or sufficient to protect riverine biotic integrity. Rather than negotiate a specific change in the flow regime, we propose that stakeholders--including management agencies, the power utility, and river advocates--engage in a process of adaptive-flow management. This process would require that stakeholders (1) develop and agree to management objectives; (2) model hypothesized relations between dam operations and management objectives; (3) implement a change in dam operations; and (4) evaluate biological responses and other stakeholder benefits through an externally reviewed monitoring program. Models would be updated with monitoring data and stakeholders would agree to further modify flow regimes as necessary to achieve management objectives. A primary obstacle to adaptive management will be a perceived uncertainty of future costs for the power utility and other stakeholders. However, an adaptive, iterative approach offers the best opportunity for improving flow regimes for native biota while gaining information critical to guiding management decisions in other flow-regulated rivers.","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00514.x","usgsCitation":"Irwin, E.R., and Freeman, M.C., 2002, Proposal for adaptive management to conserve biotic integrity in a regulated segment of the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, U.S.A: Conservation Biology, v. 16, no. 5, p. 1212-1222, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00514.x.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"1212","endPage":"1222","numberOfPages":"11","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":199512,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"16","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2002-09-27","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a9ae4b07f02db65d864","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Irwin, Elise R. 0000-0002-6866-4976 eirwin@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6866-4976","contributorId":2588,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Irwin","given":"Elise","email":"eirwin@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":506,"text":"Office of the AD Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":340949,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Freeman, Mary C. 0000-0001-7615-6923","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7615-6923","contributorId":99659,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Freeman","given":"Mary","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":340950,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224196,"text":"5224196 - 2002 - Narrowing historical uncertainty: probabilistic classification of ambiguously identified tree species in historical forest survey data","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-02-02T00:15:31","indexId":"5224196","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:29","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1478,"text":"Ecosystems","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Narrowing historical uncertainty: probabilistic classification of ambiguously identified tree species in historical forest survey data","docAbstract":"Historical data have increasingly become appreciated for insight into the past conditions of ecosystems. Uses of such data include assessing the extent of ecosystem change; deriving ecological baselines for management, restoration, and modeling; and assessing the importance of past conditions on the composition and function of current systems. One historical data set of this type is the Public Land Survey (PLS) of the United States General Land Office, which contains data on multiple tree species, sizes, and distances recorded at each survey point, located at half-mile (0.8 km) intervals on a 1-mi (1.6 km) grid. This survey method was begun in the 1790s on US federal lands extending westward from Ohio. Thus, the data have the potential of providing a view of much of the US landscape from the mid-1800s, and they have been used extensively for this purpose. However, historical data sources, such as those describing the species composition of forests, can often be limited in the detail recorded and the reliability of the data, since the information was often not originally recorded for ecological purposes. Forest trees are sometimes recorded ambiguously, using generic or obscure common names. For the PLS data of northern Wisconsin, USA, we developed a method to classify ambiguously identified tree species using logistic regression analysis, using data on trees that were clearly identified to species and a set of independent predictor variables to build the models. The models were first created on partial data sets for each species and then tested for fit against the remaining data. Validations were conducted using repeated, random subsets of the data. Model prediction accuracy ranged from 81% to 96% in differentiating congeneric species among oak, pine, ash, maple, birch, and elm. Major predictor variables were tree size, associated species, landscape classes indicative of soil type, and spatial location within the study region. Results help to clarify ambiguities formerly present in maps of historic ecosystems for the region and can be applied to PLS datasets elsewhere, as well as other sources of ambiguous historical data. Mapping the newly classified data with ecological land units provides additional information on the distribution, abundance, and associations of tree species, as well as their relationships to environmental gradients before the industrial period, and clarifies the identities of species formerly mapped only to genus. We offer some caveats on the appropriate use of data derived in this way, as well as describing their potential.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Ecosystems","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","collaboration":"5952_Mladenoff.pdf","usgsCitation":"Mladenoff, D., Dahir, S., Nordheim, E., Schulte, L., and Guntenspergen, G., 2002, Narrowing historical uncertainty: probabilistic classification of ambiguously identified tree species in historical forest survey data: Ecosystems, v. 5, p. 539-553.","productDescription":"539-553","startPage":"539","endPage":"553","numberOfPages":"15","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202293,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b02e4b07f02db6989f4","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Mladenoff, D.J.","contributorId":18881,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mladenoff","given":"D.J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340864,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Dahir, S.E.","contributorId":31878,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dahir","given":"S.E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340865,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Nordheim, E.V.","contributorId":97222,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nordheim","given":"E.V.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340867,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Schulte, L.A.","contributorId":10131,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schulte","given":"L.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340863,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Guntenspergen, G.R. 0000-0002-8593-0244","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8593-0244","contributorId":95424,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Guntenspergen","given":"G.R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340866,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":5224209,"text":"5224209 - 2002 - Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-29T20:36:59.828982","indexId":"5224209","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:29","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1465,"text":"Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data","docAbstract":"Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[3276:ESTPFU]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Kendall, W., and Nichols, J., 2002, Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data: Ecology, v. 83, no. 12, p. 3276-3284, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[3276:ESTPFU]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"3276","endPage":"3284","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":503491,"rank":1,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://zotero.org/groups/5435545/items/CQIKD2N5","text":"External Repository"},{"id":201490,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Antigua and Barbuda","otherGeospatial":"Long Island","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -61.767196655273445,\n 17.147351748174778\n ],\n [\n -61.744537353515625,\n 17.147351748174778\n ],\n [\n -61.744537353515625,\n 17.163426087651086\n ],\n [\n -61.767196655273445,\n 17.163426087651086\n ],\n [\n -61.767196655273445,\n 17.147351748174778\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"83","issue":"12","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a0ce4b07f02db5fc83e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Kendall, W. L. 0000-0003-0084-9891","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0084-9891","contributorId":32880,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kendall","given":"W. L.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":340909,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Nichols, J.D. 0000-0002-7631-2890","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-2890","contributorId":14332,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nichols","given":"J.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340908,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224207,"text":"5224207 - 2002 - A hierarchical analysis of population change with application to Cerulean Warblers","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-01-03T16:03:35.5142","indexId":"5224207","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:29","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1465,"text":"Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A hierarchical analysis of population change with application to Cerulean Warblers","docAbstract":"Estimation of population change from count surveys is complicated by variation in quality of information among sample units, by the need for covariates to accommodate factors that influence detectability of animals, and by multiple geographic scales of interest. We present a hierarchical model for estimation of population change from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Hierarchical models, in which population parameters at different geographic scales are viewed as random variables, provide a convenient framework for summary of population change among regions, accommodating regional variation in survey quality and a variety of distributional assumptions about observer effects and other nuisance parameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide a convenient means for fitting these models and also allow for construction of estimates of derived variables such as weighted regional trends and composite yearly population indices. We construct an overdispersed Poisson regression model for estimation of trend and year effects for Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea), accommodating nuisance covariates for observer and start-up effects, and estimating abundance- and area-weighted annual indices at regional and continent-wide geographic scales. A goodness-of-fit test is also presented for the model. Cerulean Warblers declined at a rate of 3.04% per year over the interval 1966-2000.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2832:AHAOPC]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Link, W., and Sauer, J., 2002, A hierarchical analysis of population change with application to Cerulean Warblers: Ecology, v. 83, no. 10, p. 2832-2840, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2832:AHAOPC]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"2832","endPage":"2840","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":201971,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"83","issue":"10","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b24e4b07f02db6ae49e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Link, W.A. 0000-0002-9913-0256","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9913-0256","contributorId":8815,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Link","given":"W.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340904,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Sauer, J.R. 0000-0002-4557-3019","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4557-3019","contributorId":66197,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sauer","given":"J.R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340905,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224208,"text":"5224208 - 2002 - Scaling in sensitivity analysis","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-29T20:47:36.079445","indexId":"5224208","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T12:18:29","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1465,"text":"Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Scaling in sensitivity analysis","docAbstract":"Population matrix models allow sets of demographic parameters to be summarized by a single value λ, the finite rate of population increase. The consequences of change in individual demographic parameters are naturally measured by the corresponding changes in λ; sensitivity analyses compare demographic parameters on the basis of these changes. These comparisons are complicated by issues of scale. Elasticity analysis attempts to deal with issues of scale by comparing the effects of proportional changes in demographic parameters, but leads to inconsistencies in evaluating demographic rates. We discuss this and other problems of scaling in sensitivity analysis, and suggest a simple criterion for choosing appropriate scales. We apply our suggestions to data for the killer whale, Orcinus orca.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[3299:SISA]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Link, W., and Doherty, P., 2002, Scaling in sensitivity analysis: Ecology, v. 83, no. 12, p. 3299-3305, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[3299:SISA]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"7 p.","startPage":"3299","endPage":"3305","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":196302,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"83","issue":"12","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a0de4b07f02db5fd986","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Link, W.A. 0000-0002-9913-0256","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9913-0256","contributorId":8815,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Link","given":"W.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340906,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Doherty, P.F. Jr.","contributorId":74096,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Doherty","given":"P.F.","suffix":"Jr.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340907,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224304,"text":"5224304 - 2002 - Intermittent fasting during winter and spring affects body composition and reproduction of a migratory duck","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-03-04T20:47:54","indexId":"5224304","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2226,"text":"Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, Systemic, and Environmental Physiology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Intermittent fasting during winter and spring affects body composition and reproduction of a migratory duck","docAbstract":"We compared food intake, body mass and body composition of male and female black ducks (Anas rubripes) during winter (January-March). Birds were fed the same complete diet ad libitum on consecutive days each week without fasting (control; nine male; nine female) or with either short fasts (2 day.week-1; nine male; nine female), or long fasts (4 day.week-1; eleven male; twelve female). We continued treatments through spring (March-May) to measure the effect of intermittent fasts on body mass and egg production. Daily food intake of fasted birds was up to four times that of unfasted birds. Weekly food intake of males was similar among treatments (364 g.kg-1.week-1) but fasted females consumed more than unfasted females in January (363 g.kg-1.week-1 vs. 225 g.kg-1.week-1). Although both sexes lost 10-14% body mass, fasted females lost less mass and lipid than unfasted females during winter. Total body nitrogen was conserved over winter in both sexes even though the heart and spleen lost mass while the reproductive tract and liver gained mass. Intermittent fasting increased liver, intestinal tissue and digesta mass of females but not of males. Fasting delayed egg production in spring but did not affect size, fertility or hatching of the clutch. Females on long fasts were still heavier than controls after laying eggs. Thus black ducks combine flexibility of food intake with plasticity of digestive tract, liver and adipose tissue when food supply is interrupted during winter. Females modulate body mass for survival and defer reproduction when food supply is interrupted in spring.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, Systemic, and Environmental Physiology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1007/s00360-002-0267-y","collaboration":"6153_Barboza.pdf","usgsCitation":"Barboza, P., and Jorde, D., 2002, Intermittent fasting during winter and spring affects body composition and reproduction of a migratory duck: Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, Systemic, and Environmental Physiology, v. 172, no. 5, p. 419-434, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00360-002-0267-y.","productDescription":"419-434","startPage":"419","endPage":"434","numberOfPages":"16","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":199514,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":17075,"rank":200,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00360-002-0267-y","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}}],"volume":"172","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b23e4b07f02db6ae1bf","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Barboza, P.S.","contributorId":44261,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barboza","given":"P.S.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341205,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Jorde, Dennis G. djorde@usgs.gov","contributorId":12804,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Jorde","given":"Dennis G.","email":"djorde@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":341204,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224156,"text":"5224156 - 2002 - Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-01-20T10:06:27","indexId":"5224156","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":708,"text":"American Birds","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change","docAbstract":"The scientific credibility of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) results depend on the development and implementation of appropriate methods of statistical analysis. The key to any successful analysis of CBC data is to begin with a careful review of how the limitations of the data are likely to influence the results of the analysis, then to choose methods of analysis that accommodate as much as possible the limitations of the survey. For our analyses of CBC data, we develop a flexible model for effort adjustment and use information from the data to guide the selection of the best model. We include geographic structuring to accommodate the regional variation in number of samples, use a model that allows for overdispersed poisson data appropriate for counts, and employ empirical Bayes procedures to accommodate differences in quality of information in regional summaries. This generalized linear model approach is very flexible, and can be applied to a variety of studies focused on factors influencing wintering bird populations. In particular, the model can be easily modified to contain covariates, allowing for assessment of associations between CBC counts and winter weather, disturbance, and a variety of other environmental factors. These new survey analysis methods have added value in that they provide insights into changes in survey design that can enhance the value of the information. The CBC has been extremely successful as a tool for increasing public interest in birding and bird conservation. Use of the information for bird conservation creates new demands on quality of information, and it is important to maintain a dialogue between users of the information, information needs for the analyses, and survey coordinators and participants. Our work as survey analysts emphasizes the value and limitations of existing data, and provides some indications of what features of the survey could be modified to make the survey a more reliable source of bird population data. Surveys only remain useful if they adapt to current needs, while still maintaining consistency with historical goals.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"American Birds","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Audubon Society","collaboration":"5910_Sauer.pdf","usgsCitation":"Sauer, J., and Link, W., 2002, Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change: American Birds, p. 10-14.","productDescription":"10-14","startPage":"10","endPage":"14","numberOfPages":"5","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":17583,"rank":300,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.audubon.org/bird/cbc/pdf/american_birds102A.pdf","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"}},{"id":199648,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a16e4b07f02db603cdf","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Sauer, J.R. 0000-0002-4557-3019","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4557-3019","contributorId":66197,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sauer","given":"J.R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340713,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Link, W.A. 0000-0002-9913-0256","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9913-0256","contributorId":8815,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Link","given":"W.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":340712,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5224372,"text":"5224372 - 2002 - Producing progeny from endangered birds of prey: Treatment of urine-contaminated semen and a novel intramagnal insemination approach","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-03-15T20:08:03","indexId":"5224372","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2514,"text":"Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Producing progeny from endangered birds of prey: Treatment of urine-contaminated semen and a novel intramagnal insemination approach","docAbstract":"Wild raptors brought into an ex situ environment often have poor semen quality that is further compromised by urine contamination. Generally, it is believed that in birds, artificial insemination into the cloaca or caudal vagina of females requires large doses of high-quality spermatozoa to maximize fertility. In an effort to define and overcome some of the challenges associated with reproduction in wild raptors, the objectives of this study were to 1) evaluate the frequency, impact, and remediation of urine contamination in fresh ejaculates for the purpose of maintaining sperm motility and viability in vitro, and 2) develop a deep insemination method that allows low numbers of washed sperm to be placed directly into the magnum to increase the probability of producing fertilized eggs. The species evaluated include golden eagle (Aquila chrysoetos), imperial eagle (A. adalberti), Bonelli's eagle (Hiernaetus fasciatus), and peregrine, falcon (Falco peregrinus). Semen samples were collected and pooled by species, and a minimum of 25 pooled ejaculates per species were evaluated for urine contamination, pH, sperm viability, and sperm motility; the samples were either unwashed or washed in neutral (pH 7.0) or alkaline (pH 8.0) modified Lake's diluent. Female golden eagles and peregrine falcons were inseminated via transjunctional, intramagnal insemination with washed spermatozoa from urine-contaminated samples. Urine contamination occurred in 36.8 +/- 12.8% (mean +/- SEM) golden eagle, 43.1 +/- 9.1% imperial eagle, 28.7 +/- 16.1% Bonelli's eagle, and 48.2 +/- 17.3% peregrine falcon ejaculates. The pH in urine-contaminated semen samples ranged from 6.48 +/- 0.3 to 6.86 +/- 0.2, and in noncontaminated samples it ranged from from 7.17 +/- 0.1 to 7.56 +/- 0.1. Sperm viability and motility were reduced (P < 0.05) in all species for unwashed vs. washed sperm after 30 min incubation at room temperature. Two peregrine falcon chicks and one golden eagle chick hatched after intramagnal insemination. This study demonstrates that urine contamination, a common and lethal acidifier in manually collected raptor ejaculates, can be circumvented by immediate, gentle seminal washing. Furthermore, these processed sperm, when deposited by transjunctional intramagnal insemination, can produce live young.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1638/1042-7260(2002)033[0001:PPFEBO]2.0.CO;2","collaboration":"6243_Blanco.pdf","usgsCitation":"Blanco, J., Gee, G., Wildt, D., and Donoghue, A., 2002, Producing progeny from endangered birds of prey: Treatment of urine-contaminated semen and a novel intramagnal insemination approach: Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine, v. 33, no. 1, p. 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1638/1042-7260(2002)033[0001:PPFEBO]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"1-7","startPage":"1","endPage":"7","numberOfPages":"7","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":269408,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1638/1042-7260(2002)033[0001:PPFEBO]2.0.CO;2"},{"id":202276,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"33","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a9be4b07f02db65e490","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Blanco, J.M.","contributorId":50257,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blanco","given":"J.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341455,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Gee, G.F.","contributorId":70335,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gee","given":"G.F.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341456,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wildt, D.E.","contributorId":106610,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wildt","given":"D.E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341457,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Donoghue, A.M.","contributorId":46653,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Donoghue","given":"A.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":341454,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":5224174,"text":"5224174 - 2002 - FrogwatchUSA","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-01-11T10:15:15","indexId":"5224174","displayToPublicDate":"2010-06-16T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3030,"text":"People, Land, and Water","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"FrogwatchUSA","docAbstract":"full text: Frogs and toads are perhaps the most approachable and available of all our wildlife. In many, if not most places, they are abundant. In wetter parts of the East, almost anyone outside on a warm rainy night in spring will hear their dream-like calls, bellows, trills and snores. Even in the deserts of the Southwest, a nocturnal trip after a summer monsoon will yield toads moving across the roads toward a cacophonous orgy of mating and calling in the roadside ditches and desert pools. Birds share with frogs and toads this same sense of presence in our daily lives. But the difference is that birds are like the attractive neighbor who just never gives you the time of day, while frogs are more like the troglodyte who appears regularly to chat, philosophize, and have a beer. Uninvited, frogs appear in our water gardens, toads are on our stoops in the morning, we catch them when we are kids, raise their babies in the aquarium, and feel sorry when we find we have run them over with the lawnmower. When concerns about declining populations of amphibians reached the mass media, the Secretaries' office became involved. In addition to using traditional research mechanisms to investigate the problem, the Secretary also wanted to involve the public directly. The combination of high public appeal and the relative ease with which frog calls can be learned made a large-scale monitoring program for frogs and toads possible. What emerged was a program called Frogwatch USA, modeled after a successful Canadian program with a similar name. A web site was created (www.frogwatch.org) that presented potential frogwatchers with directions and a way to register their site online as well as enter their data. Observers chose where to count frogs depending on what they felt was important. For some it was their backyard, others chose vulnerable wetlands in their neighborhoods, or spots on local refuges and parks. Initially funded at $8,000 a year and then after two years increased to $25,000, most of the first part of this program's life was spent developing the tools and web site to document counts of frogs online. Despite the lack of time available to promote the program, send out press releases and recruit observers, news of the program quickly spread by word of mouth and the electronic media. Many newspaper articles later, we found a large number of people had become involved with counting frogs in their neighborhoods and backyards. Current figures show 1,456 observers who have registered at 1,683 sites logging almost 5,000 visits. These visits yield information on when and what species are calling from wetlands throughout the United States. These records are usually the only records of information about frogs and toads for those sites and become a permanent record that can be revisited in future years. Additionally, when observers make a lot of visits or there are many sites in a region, a phenology of calls can be created that documents when it is most likely in that year for each species to be recorded. Finally, even for those observers whose data we may mistrust and therefore are likely to eliminate from analyses, these people have taken the time to leave their televisions, go outside, and directly experience frogs, toads, and all that occur in Nature. In 1999 it was decided that FrogwatchUSA needed to work with another group that specifically focused on environmental education and outreach. After talking to a number of organizations we found that the National Wildlife Federation, with their Backyard Wildlife Habitat, Endangered Species, and other programs along with their four million members who are interested in nature, would be an excellent match. Thus a partnership was born. After over a year of work between Interior and National Wildlife Federation biologists and lawyers, an agreement has been created that places the Federation as the lead of Frogwatch USA. It will now take care of res","language":"English","usgsCitation":"Droege, S., 2002, FrogwatchUSA: People, Land, and Water, v. 9, no. 1, p. 35-35.","productDescription":"1 p.","startPage":"35","endPage":"35","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":201650,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"9","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b32e4b07f02db6b4668","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Droege, Sam 0000-0003-4393-0403","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4393-0403","contributorId":64185,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Droege","given":"Sam","affiliations":[{"id":50464,"text":"Eastern Ecological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":340787,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70157406,"text":"70157406 - 2002 - Using high hydraulic conductivity nodes to simulate seepage lakes","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2015-09-22T15:25:18","indexId":"70157406","displayToPublicDate":"2010-02-02T01:15:00","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3825,"text":"Groundwater","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Using high hydraulic conductivity nodes to simulate seepage lakes","docAbstract":"In a typical ground water flow model, lakes are represented by specified head nodes requiring that lake levels be known a priori. To remove this limitation, previous researchers assigned high hydraulic conductivity (K) values to nodes that represent a lake, under the assumption that the simulated head at the nodes in the high-K zone accurately reflects lake level. The solution should also produce a constant water level across the lake. We developed a model of a simple hypothetical ground water/lake system to test whether solutions using high-K lake nodes are sensitive to the value of K selected to represent the lake. Results show that the larger the contrast between the K of the aquifer and the K of the lake nodes, the smaller the error tolerance required for the solution to converge. For our test problem, a contrast of three orders of magnitude produced a head difference across the lake of 0.005 m under a regional gradient of the order of 10−3 m/m, while a contrast of four orders of magnitude produced a head difference of 0.001 m. The high-K method was then used to simulate lake levels in Pretty Lake, Wisconsin. Results for both the hypothetical system and the application to Pretty Lake compared favorably with results using a lake package developed for MODFLOW (Merritt and Konikow 2000). While our results demonstrate that the high-K method accurately simulates lake levels, this method has more cumbersome postprocessing and longer run times than the same problem simulated using the lake package.
","language":"English","publisher":"National Ground Water Association","doi":"10.1111/j.1745-6584.2002.tb02496.x","usgsCitation":"Anderson, M.P., Hunt, R.J., Krohelski, J.T., and Chung, K., 2002, Using high hydraulic conductivity nodes to simulate seepage lakes: Groundwater, v. 40, no. 2, p. 117-122, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2002.tb02496.x.","productDescription":"6 p.","startPage":"117","endPage":"122","numberOfPages":"6","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":308395,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"40","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2005-12-13","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"56027c2ce4b03bc34f544892","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Anderson, Mary P.","contributorId":147842,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Anderson","given":"Mary","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":16925,"text":"University of Wisconsin-Madison","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":573028,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hunt, Randall J. 0000-0001-6465-9304 rjhunt@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6465-9304","contributorId":1129,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hunt","given":"Randall","email":"rjhunt@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":677,"text":"Wisconsin Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":573029,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Krohelski, James T.","contributorId":52223,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Krohelski","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":677,"text":"Wisconsin Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":573030,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Chung, Kuopo","contributorId":147861,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Chung","given":"Kuopo","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":573031,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":5230269,"text":"5230269 - 2002 - Identification and synthetic modeling of factors affecting American black duck populations","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2014-08-13T12:53:32","indexId":"5230269","displayToPublicDate":"2009-06-09T10:33:00","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"title":"Identification and synthetic modeling of factors affecting American black duck populations","docAbstract":"We reviewed the literature on factors potentially affecting the population status of American black ducks (Anas rupribes). Our review suggests that there is some support for the influence of 4 major, continental-scope factors in limiting or regulating black duck populations: 1) loss in the quantity or quality of breeding habitats; 2) loss in the quantity or quality of wintering habitats; 3) harvest, and 4) interactions (competition, hybridization) with mallards (Anas platyrhychos) during the breeding and/or wintering periods.
\nThese factors were used as the basis of an annual life cycle model in which reproduction rates and survival rates were modeled as functions of the above factors, with parameters of the model describing the strength of these relationships. Variation in the model parameter values allows for consideration of scientific uncertainty as to the degree each of these factors may be contributing to declines in black duck populations, and thus allows for the investigation of the possible effects of management (e.g., habitat improvement, harvest reductions) under different assumptions.
\nWe then used available, historical data on black duck populations (abundance, annual reproduction rates, and survival rates) and possible driving factors (trends in breeding and wintering habitats, harvest rates, and abundance of mallards) to estimate model parameters. Our estimated reproduction submodel included parameters describing negative density feedback of black ducks, positive influence of breeding habitat, and negative influence of mallard densities; our survival submodel included terms for positive influence of winter habitat on reproduction rates, and negative influences of black duck density (i.e., compensation to harvest mortality). Individual models within each group (reproduction, survival) involved various combinations of these factors, and each was given an information theoretic weight for use in subsequent prediction. The reproduction model with highest AIC weight (0.70) predicted black duck age ratios increasing as a function of decreasing mallard abundance and increasing acreage of breeding habitat; all models considered involved negative density dependence for black ducks. The survival model with highest AIC weight (0.51) predicted nonharvest survival increasing as a function of increasing acreage of wintering habitat and decreasing harvest rates (additive mortality); models involving compensatory mortality effects received ≈0.12 total weight, vs. 0.88 for additive models.
\nWe used the combined model, together with our historical data set, to perform a series of 1-year population forecasts, similar to those that might be performed under adaptive management. Initial model forecasts over-predicted observed breeding populations by ≈25%. Least-squares calibration reduced the bias to ≈0.5% under prediction. After calibration, model-averaged predictions over the 16 alternative models (4 reproduction × 4 survival, weighted by AIC model weights) explained 67% of the variation in annual breeding population abundance for black ducks, suggesting that it might have utility as a predictive tool in adaptive management.
\nWe investigated the effects of statistical uncertainty in parameter values on predicted population growth rates for the combined annual model, via sensitivity analyses. Parameter sensitivity varied in relation to the parameter values over the estimated confidence intervals, and in relation to harvest rates and mallard abundance. Forecasts of black duck abundance were extremely sensitive to variation in parameter values for the coefficients for breeding and wintering habitat effects. Model-averaged forecasts of black duck abundance were also sensitive to changes in harvest rate and mallard abundance, with rapid declines in black duck abundance predicted for a range of harvest rates and mallard abundance higher than current levels of either factor, but easily envisaged, particularly given current rates of growth for mallard populations.
\nBecause of concerns about sensitivity to habitat coefficients, and particularly in light of deficiencies in the historical data used to estimate these parameters, we developed a simplified model that excludes habitat effects. We also developed alternative models involving a calibration adjustment for reproduction rates, survival rates, or neither. Calibration of survival rates performed best (AIC weight 0.59, % BIAS = -0.280, R2=0.679), with reproduction calibration somewhat inferior (AIC weight 0.41, % BIAS = -0.267, R2=0.672); models without calibration received virtually no AIC weight and were discarded. We recommend that the simplified model set (4 biological models × 2 alternative calibration factors) be retained as the best working set of alternative models for research and management.
\nFinally, we provide some preliminary guidance for the development of adaptive harvest management for black ducks, using our working set of models.
","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Wildlife Monographs","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"The Wildlife Society","usgsCitation":"Conroy, M.J., Miller, M., and Hines, J., 2002, Identification and synthetic modeling of factors affecting American black duck populations, v. 150, 64 p.","productDescription":"64 p.","numberOfPages":"66","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202656,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":292086,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://www.jstor.org/stable/3830767"}],"country":"Canada;United States","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ 173.0,16.916667 ], [ 173.0,56.86 ], [ -66.95,56.86 ], [ -66.95,16.916667 ], [ 173.0,16.916667 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"150","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a09e4b07f02db5faa89","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Conroy, Michael J.","contributorId":20871,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Conroy","given":"Michael","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":13266,"text":"Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, The University of Georgia","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":343886,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Miller, Mark W.","contributorId":83642,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Miller","given":"Mark W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":343887,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Hines, James E. jhines@usgs.gov","contributorId":3506,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hines","given":"James E.","email":"jhines@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":343885,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":5211162,"text":"5211162 - 2002 - Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-02-02T00:15:25","indexId":"5211162","displayToPublicDate":"2009-06-09T09:23:19","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"title":"Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data","docAbstract":"Pradel's (1996) temporal symmetry model permitting direct estimation and modelling of population growth rate, lambda sub i provides a potentially useful tool for the study of population dynamics using marked animals. Because of its recent publication date, the approach has not seen much use, and there have been virtually no investigations directed at robustness of the resulting estimators. Here we consider several potential sources of bias, all motivated by specific uses of this estimation approach. We consider sampling situations in which the study area expands with time and present an analytic expression for the bias in lambda hat sub i. We next consider trap response in capture probabilities and heterogeneous capture probabilities and compute large-sample and simulation-based approximations of resulting bias in lambda hat sub i. These approximations indicate that trap response is an especially important assumption violation that can produce substantial bias. Finally, we consider losses on capture and emphasize the importance of selecting the estimator for lambda sub i that is appropriate to the question being addressed. For studies based on only sighting and resighting data, Pradel's (1996) lambda hat prime sub i is the appropriate estimator.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Statistical analysis of data from marked bird populations","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":4,"text":"Other Government Series"},"language":"English","collaboration":"EURING 2000 Conference, Point Reyes, California, October 1-7. PDF on file: 5829_Hines.pdf","usgsCitation":"Hines, J., and Nichols, J., 2002, Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data, chap. of Statistical analysis of data from marked bird populations, p. 573-587.","productDescription":"669","startPage":"573","endPage":"587","numberOfPages":"669","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202411,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4779e4b07f02db47f3f7","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hines, J.E. 0000-0001-5478-7230","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5478-7230","contributorId":36885,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hines","given":"J.E.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":330290,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Nichols, J.D. 0000-0002-7631-2890","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-2890","contributorId":14332,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nichols","given":"J.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330289,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5211160,"text":"5211160 - 2002 - Random effects and shrinkage estimation in capture-recapture models","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-02-02T00:15:25","indexId":"5211160","displayToPublicDate":"2009-06-09T09:23:19","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"title":"Random effects and shrinkage estimation in capture-recapture models","docAbstract":"We discuss the analysis of random effects in capture-recapture models, and outline Bayesian and frequentists approaches to their analysis. Under a normal model, random effects estimators derived from Bayesian or frequentist considerations have a common form as shrinkage estimators. We discuss some of the difficulties of analysing random effects using traditional methods, and argue that a Bayesian formulation provides a rigorous framework for dealing with these difficulties. In capture-recapture models, random effects may provide a parsimonious compromise between constant and completely time-dependent models for the parameters (e.g. survival probability). We consider application of random effects to band-recovery models, although the principles apply to more general situations, such as Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. We illustrate these ideas using a commonly analysed band recovery data set.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Statistical analysis of data from marked bird populations","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":4,"text":"Other Government Series"},"language":"English","collaboration":"EURING 2000 Conference, Point Reyes, California, October 1-7. PDF on file: 5826_Royle.pdf","usgsCitation":"Royle, J., and Link, W., 2002, Random effects and shrinkage estimation in capture-recapture models, chap. of Statistical analysis of data from marked bird populations, p. 329-351.","productDescription":"669","startPage":"329","endPage":"351","numberOfPages":"669","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202351,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a80e4b07f02db649543","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Royle, J. Andrew 0000-0003-3135-2167","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3135-2167","contributorId":96221,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Royle","given":"J. Andrew","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330286,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Link, W.A. 0000-0002-9913-0256","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9913-0256","contributorId":8815,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Link","given":"W.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330285,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5211173,"text":"5211173 - 2002 - Contrasting determinants of abundance in ancestral and colonized ranges of an invasive brood parasite","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-02-02T00:15:26","indexId":"5211173","displayToPublicDate":"2009-06-09T09:23:19","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"title":"Contrasting determinants of abundance in ancestral and colonized ranges of an invasive brood parasite","docAbstract":"Avian species distributions are typically regarded as constrained by spatially extensive variables such as climate, habitat, spatial patchiness, and microhabitat attributes. We hypothesized that the distribution of a brood parasite depends as strongly on host distribution patterns as on biophysical factors and examined this hypothesis with respect to the national distribution of the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater). We applied a classification and regression (CART) analysis to data from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Christmas Bird Count (CBC) and derived hierarchically organized statistical models of the influence of climate and weather, cropping and land use, and host abundance and distribution on the distribution of the Brown-headed Cowbird within the conterminous United States. The model accounted for 47.2% of the variation in cowbird incidence, and host abundance was the top predictor with an R2 of 18.9%. The other predictors identified by the model (crops 15.7%, weather and climate 14.3%, and region 9.6%) fit the ecological profile of this cowbird. We showed that host abundance was independent of these environmental predictors of cowbird distribution. At the regional scale host abundance played a very strong role in determining cowbird abundance in the cowbird?s colonized range east and west of their ancestral range in the Great Plains (26.6%). Crops were not a major predictor for cowbirds in their ancestral range, although they are the most important predictive factor (33%) for the grassland passerines that are the cowbird?s ancestral hosts. Consequently our findings suggest that the distribution of hosts does indeed take precedence over habitat attributes in shaping the cowbird?s distribution at a national scale, within an envelope of constraint set by biophysical factors.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Predicting Species Occurrences : Issues of Accuracy and Scale","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":4,"text":"Other Government Series"},"language":"English","publisher":"Island Press","publisherLocation":"Washington, DC","collaboration":"OCLC: 48501074 PDF on file: 5878_Hahn.pdf","usgsCitation":"Hahn, D., and O’Connor, R., 2002, Contrasting determinants of abundance in ancestral and colonized ranges of an invasive brood parasite, chap. of Predicting Species Occurrences : Issues of Accuracy and Scale, p. 219-228.","productDescription":"xvii, 868","startPage":"219","endPage":"228","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202485,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4af3e4b07f02db6919fe","contributors":{"editors":[{"text":"Scott, J. Michael","contributorId":98877,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Scott","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"Michael","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":507671,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Heglund, Patricia J.","contributorId":51248,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Heglund","given":"Patricia J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":507670,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Morrison, Michael L.","contributorId":111417,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Morrison","given":"Michael L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":507672,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Haufler, Jonathan B.","contributorId":112340,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Haufler","given":"Jonathan","email":"","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":507673,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Wall, William A.","contributorId":113497,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wall","given":"William","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":507674,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":5}],"authors":[{"text":"Hahn, D.C. 0000-0002-5242-2059","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5242-2059","contributorId":46447,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hahn","given":"D.C.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":330317,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"O’Connor, R.J.","contributorId":37861,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O’Connor","given":"R.J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330316,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":5211163,"text":"5211163 - 2002 - The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2015-12-17T14:34:53","indexId":"5211163","displayToPublicDate":"2009-06-09T09:23:19","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2173,"text":"Journal of Applied Statistics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida","docAbstract":"The rate of population growth (lambda) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate lambda for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of lambda from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates lambda using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of lambda differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that lambda of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.
","language":"English","publisher":"Taylor & Francis","doi":"10.1080/02664760120108854","usgsCitation":"Dreitz, V., Nichols, J., Hines, J., Bennetts, R., Kitchens, W., and DeAngelis, D., 2002, The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida: Journal of Applied Statistics, v. 29, no. 1-4, p. 609-623, https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760120108854.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"609","endPage":"623","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":202414,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"29","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-05-14","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a5ee4b07f02db633ece","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dreitz, V.J.","contributorId":65432,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dreitz","given":"V.J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330294,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Nichols, J.D. 0000-0002-7631-2890","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-2890","contributorId":14332,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nichols","given":"J.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330291,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Hines, J.E. 0000-0001-5478-7230","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5478-7230","contributorId":36885,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hines","given":"J.E.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":330293,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Bennetts, R.E.","contributorId":103214,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bennetts","given":"R.E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330296,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Kitchens, W.M.","contributorId":87647,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kitchens","given":"W.M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330295,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"DeAngelis, D.L. 0000-0002-1570-4057","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1570-4057","contributorId":32470,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"DeAngelis","given":"D.L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":330292,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":5211159,"text":"5211159 - 2002 - Model-based estimation of individual fitness","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-02-02T00:15:21","indexId":"5211159","displayToPublicDate":"2009-06-09T09:23:19","publicationYear":"2002","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"title":"Model-based estimation of individual fitness","docAbstract":"Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Statistical analysis of data from marked bird populations","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":4,"text":"Other Government Series"},"language":"English","collaboration":"EURING 2000 Conference, Point Reyes, California, October 1-7. 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