ABSTRACT: In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.
Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.2307/3802565","issn":"0022541X","usgsCitation":"Flint, P.L., Grand, J.B., and Rockwell, R.F., 1998, A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 62, no. 3, p. 1110-1118, https://doi.org/10.2307/3802565.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"1110","endPage":"1118","costCenters":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":231333,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta","volume":"62","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5059e480e4b0c8380cd46687","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Flint, Paul L. 0000-0002-8758-6993 pflint@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8758-6993","contributorId":3284,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Flint","given":"Paul","email":"pflint@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":386225,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Grand, J. Barry 0000-0002-3576-4567 barry_grand@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3576-4567","contributorId":579,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Grand","given":"J.","email":"barry_grand@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"Barry","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":386223,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Rockwell, Robert F.","contributorId":172752,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Rockwell","given":"Robert","email":"","middleInitial":"F.","affiliations":[{"id":6989,"text":"American Museum of Natural History","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":386224,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70021149,"text":"70021149 - 1998 - Crustal structure of China from deep seismic sounding profiles","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2020-05-05T13:02:42.052373","indexId":"70021149","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3525,"text":"Tectonophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Crustal structure of China from deep seismic sounding profiles","docAbstract":"More than 36,000 km of Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) profiles have been collected in China since 1958. However, the results of these profiles are not well known in the West due to the language barrier. In this paper, we summarize the crustal structure of China with a new contour map of crustal thickness, nine representative crustal columns, and maps showing profile locations, average crustal velocity, and Pn velocity. The most remarkable aspect of the crustal structure of China is the well known 70+ km thickness of the crust of the Tibetan Plateau. The thick (45–70 km) crust of western China is separated from the thinner (30–45 km) crust of eastern China by the north-south trending seismic belt (105°E). The average crustal velocity of China ranges from 6.15 to 6.45 km/s, indicating a felsic-to-intermediate bulk crustal composition. Upper mantle (Pn) velocities are 8.0 ± 0.2 km/s, equal to the global continental average. We interpret these results in terms of the most recent thermo-tectonic events that have modified the crust. In much of eastern China, Cenozoic crustal extension has produced a thin crust with a low average crustal velocity, similar to western Europe and the Basin and Range Province, western USA. In western China, Mesozoic and Cenozoic arc-continent and continent-continent collisions have led to crustal growth and thickening. Inferences on the process of crustal thickening are provided by the deep crustal velocity structure as determined by DSS profiles and other seismological studies. A high velocity (7.0–7.4 km/s) lower-crustal layer has been reported in western China only beneath the southernmost Tibetan Plateau. We identify this high-velocity layer as the cold lower crust of the subducting Indian plate. As the Indian crust is injected northward into the Tibetan lower crust, it heats and assimilates by partial melting, a process that results in a reduction in the seismic velocity of the lower crust in the central and northern Tibetan Plateau.
An experimental and computational research approach was used to determine interactions between pool geometry and hydraulics. A 20-m-long, 1.8-m-wide flume was used to investigate the effect of four different geometric aspects of pool shape on flow velocity. Plywood sections were used to systematically alter constriction width, pool depth, pool length, and pool exit-slope gradient, each at two separate levels. Using the resulting 16 unique geometries with measured pool velocities in four-way factorial analyses produced an empirical assessment of the role of the four geometric aspects on the pool flow patterns and hence the stability of the pool. To complement the conclusions of these analyses, a two-dimensional computational flow model was used to investigate the relationships between pool geometry and flow patterns over a wider range of conditions. Both experimental and computational results show that constriction and depth effects dominate in the jet section of the pool and that pool length exhibits an increasing effect within the recirculating-eddy system. The pool exit slope appears to force flow reattachment. Pool length controls recirculating-eddy length and vena contracta strength. In turn, the vena contracta and recirculating eddy control velocities throughout the pool.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/1998WR900004","usgsCitation":"Thompson, D.M., Nelson, J.M., and Wohl, E.E., 1998, Interactions between pool geometry and hydraulics: Water Resources Research, v. 34, no. 12, p. 3673-3681, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998WR900004.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"3673","endPage":"3681","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":488112,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/1998wr900004","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":228209,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"34","issue":"12","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a3cc5e4b0c8380cd6301e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Thompson, Douglas M.","contributorId":98483,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Thompson","given":"Douglas","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383916,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Nelson, Jonathan M. 0000-0002-7632-8526 jmn@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7632-8526","contributorId":2812,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nelson","given":"Jonathan","email":"jmn@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":37778,"text":"WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":5044,"text":"National Research Program - Central Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":383918,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wohl, Ellen E.","contributorId":16969,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wohl","given":"Ellen","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383917,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":1000816,"text":"1000816 - 1998 - A collapsible trap for capturing ruffe","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-01-28T10:26:14","indexId":"1000816","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2886,"text":"North American Journal of Fisheries Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A collapsible trap for capturing ruffe","docAbstract":"A modified version of the Windermere trap was designed, constructed, and tested for its effectiveness in capturing ruffe Gymnocephalus cernuus. The inexpensive, lightweight, collapsible trap was easily deployed and retrieved from a small boat. Field tests conducted at the St. Louis River estuary in western Lake Superior in spring 1995 and 1996 indicated that the trap was effective in capturing ruffe. Proportions of the ruffe in trap and bottom trawl catches were similar in 1995 and 1996. This trap could be a useful tool in surveillance, monitoring, or control programs for ruffe or similar species, either to augment existing sampling programs or especially in situations where gillnetting or bottom trawling are not feasible.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"North American Journal of Fisheries Management","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Taylor & Francis","publisherLocation":"London, UK","doi":"10.1577/1548-8675(1998)018<0465:ACTFCR>2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Edwards, A., Czypinski, G.D., and Selgeby, J.H., 1998, A collapsible trap for capturing ruffe: North American Journal of Fisheries Management, v. 18, no. 2, p. 465-469, https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8675(1998)018<0465:ACTFCR>2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"p. 465-469","startPage":"465","endPage":"469","numberOfPages":"4","costCenters":[{"id":324,"text":"Great Lakes Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":266591,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1577/1548-8675(1998)018<0465:ACTFCR>2.0.CO;2"},{"id":133590,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"18","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b28e4b07f02db6b1099","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Edwards, Andrew J.","contributorId":90266,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Edwards","given":"Andrew J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":309518,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Czypinski, Gary D.","contributorId":61394,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Czypinski","given":"Gary","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":309516,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Selgeby, James H.","contributorId":89828,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Selgeby","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":309517,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70021368,"text":"70021368 - 1998 - Sampling-variance effects on detecting density dependence from temporal trends in natural populations","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-09-29T16:55:02.221072","indexId":"70021368","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1459,"text":"Ecological Monographs","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Sampling-variance effects on detecting density dependence from temporal trends in natural populations","docAbstract":"Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to evaluate robustness of four tests to detect density dependence, from series of population abundances, to the addition of sampling variance. Population abundances were generated from random walk, stochastic exponential growth, and density-dependent population models. Population abundance estimates were generated with sampling variances distributed as lognormal and constant coefficients of variation (cv) from 0.00 to 1.00. In general, when data were generated under a random walk, Type I error rates increased rapidly for Bulmer's R, Pollard et al.'s, and Dennis and Taper's tests with increasing magnitude of sampling variance for n > 5 yr and all values of process variation. Bulmer's R* test maintained a constant 5% Type I error rate for n > 5 yr and all magnitudes of sampling variance in the population abundance estimates. When abundances were generated from two stochastic exponential growth models (R = 0.05 and R = 0.10), Type I errors again increased with increasing sampling variance; magnitude of Type I error rates were higher for the slower growing population. Therefore, sampling error inflated Type I error rates, invalidating the tests, for all except Bulmer's R* test. Comparable simulations for abundance estimates generated from a density-dependent growth rate model were conducted to estimate power of the tests. Type II error rates were influenced by the relationship of initial population size to carrying capacity (K), length of time series, as well as sampling error. Given the inflated Type I error rates for all but Bulmer's R*, power was overestimated for the remaining tests, resulting in density dependence being detected more often than it existed. Population abundances of natural populations are almost exclusively estimated rather than censused, assuring sampling error. Therefore, because these tests have been shown to be either invalid when only sampling variance occurs in the population abundances (Bulmer's R, Pollard et al.'s, and Dennis and Taper's tests) or lack power (Bulmer's R* test), little justification exists for use of such tests to support or refute the hypothesis of density dependence.
","language":"English","publisher":"Ecological Society of America","doi":"10.1890/0012-9615(1998)068[0445:SVEODD]2.0.CO;2","usgsCitation":"Shenk, T.M., White, G.C., and Burnham, K.P., 1998, Sampling-variance effects on detecting density dependence from temporal trends in natural populations: Ecological Monographs, v. 68, no. 3, p. 445-463, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(1998)068[0445:SVEODD]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"19 p.","startPage":"445","endPage":"463","numberOfPages":"19","costCenters":[{"id":189,"text":"Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":230070,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"68","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505ab097e4b0c8380cd87bb8","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Shenk, Tanya M","contributorId":221010,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Shenk","given":"Tanya","email":"","middleInitial":"M","affiliations":[{"id":40309,"text":"NPS, Lincoln, NE","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":389623,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"White, Gary C.","contributorId":26256,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"White","given":"Gary","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":389622,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Burnham, Kenneth P.","contributorId":95025,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Burnham","given":"Kenneth","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":189,"text":"Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":389624,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70020451,"text":"70020451 - 1998 - Early Archean crust in the northern Wyoming province: Evidence from U-Pb ages of detrital zircons","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-06-25T15:51:30.032856","indexId":"70020451","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3112,"text":"Precambrian Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Early Archean crust in the northern Wyoming province: Evidence from U-Pb ages of detrital zircons","docAbstract":"U–Pb ages of individual detrital and metamorphic zircons from 12 Archean metasedimentary rocks, including quartzites, from the Beartooth, Ruby, and Tobacco Root uplifts of the northern Wyoming province indicate that they were deposited between 2.7 and 3.2 Ga. Younger, metamorphic zircons are found as overgrowths and new grains in some samples, and yield ages between 2.7 and 1.9 Ga. They are, however, much less abundant than detrital grains, which constitute >75% of the 355 grains analyzed. The majority of the detrital grains have ages between 3.2 and 3.4 Ga; none are younger than 2.9 Ga. Grains with 207Pb/206Pb ages between 3.4 and 4.0 Ga constituted approximately 15% of all grains with analyses within 10% of concordia, but are concentrated in samples from the eastern Beartooth Mountains. Comparison of the average of the Pb–Pb ages of individual zircons within 10% of concordia with previously published Lu–Hf chondritic model ages for some individual samples suggests that the age distribution recorded by the U–Pb system in these zircons has not been significantly disturbed by pre- or post-depositional Pb-loss. Collectively, these data suggest that the individual metasedimentary rocks did not completely share a common provenance and that a major crust-forming cycle occurred 3.2 to 3.4 Ga. In conjunction with previously published U–Th–Pb whole-rock data, these results suggest that rocks with a relatively high proportion of >3.4 Ga grains may have had crust of comparable age in their provenance.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/S0301-9268(98)00055-2","issn":"03019268","usgsCitation":"Mueller, P., Wooden, J.L., Nutman, A., and Mogk, D., 1998, Early Archean crust in the northern Wyoming province: Evidence from U-Pb ages of detrital zircons: Precambrian Research, v. 91, no. 3-4, p. 295-307, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-9268(98)00055-2.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"295","endPage":"307","numberOfPages":"13","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":230902,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"91","issue":"3-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a0474e4b0c8380cd509c7","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Mueller, P.A.","contributorId":86117,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mueller","given":"P.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386274,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wooden, J. L.","contributorId":58678,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wooden","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386272,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Nutman, A.P.","contributorId":16177,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nutman","given":"A.P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386271,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Mogk, D.W.","contributorId":61575,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mogk","given":"D.W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386273,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70021112,"text":"70021112 - 1998 - Extremely acid Permian lakes and ground waters in North America","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:19:48","indexId":"70021112","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2840,"text":"Nature","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Extremely acid Permian lakes and ground waters in North America","docAbstract":"Evaporites hosted by red beds (red shales and sandstones), some 275-265 million years old, extend over a large area of the North American mid- continent. They were deposited in non-marine saline lakes, pans and mud- flats, settings that are typically assumed to have been alkaline. Here we use laser Raman microprobe analyses of fluid inclusions trapped in halites from these Permian deposits to argue for the existence of highly acidic (pH < 1) lakes and ground waters. These extremely acidic systems may have extended over an area of 200,000 km2. Modern analogues of such systems may be natural acid lake and groundwater systems (pH ~2-4) in southern Australia. Both the ancient and modern acid systems are characterized by closed drainage, arid climate, low acid-neutralizing capacity, and the oxidation of minerals such as pyrite to generate acidity. The discovery of widespread ancient acid lake and groundwater systems demands a re-evaluation of reconstructions of surface conditions of the past, and further investigations of the geochemistry and ecology of acid systems in general.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Nature","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1038/31917","issn":"00280836","usgsCitation":"Benison, K., Goldstein, R., Wopenka, B., Burruss, R., and Pasteris, J.D., 1998, Extremely acid Permian lakes and ground waters in North America: Nature, v. 392, no. 6679, p. 911-914, https://doi.org/10.1038/31917.","startPage":"911","endPage":"914","numberOfPages":"4","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":206560,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/31917"},{"id":230214,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"392","issue":"6679","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a0e69e4b0c8380cd53441","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Benison, K.C.","contributorId":44687,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Benison","given":"K.C.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388690,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Goldstein, R.H.","contributorId":18908,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Goldstein","given":"R.H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388689,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wopenka, B.","contributorId":56064,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wopenka","given":"B.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388691,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Burruss, R.C. 0000-0001-6827-804X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6827-804X","contributorId":99574,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Burruss","given":"R.C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388693,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Pasteris, J. D.","contributorId":97640,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pasteris","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388692,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70020431,"text":"70020431 - 1998 - Information-theoretic model selection and model averaging for closed-population capture-recapture studies","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-08-28T16:38:19.361962","indexId":"70020431","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1038,"text":"Biometrical Journal","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Information-theoretic model selection and model averaging for closed-population capture-recapture studies","docAbstract":"Specification of an appropriate model is critical to valid statistical inference. Given the “true model” for the data is unknown, the goal of model selection is to select a plausible approximating model that balances model bias and sampling variance. Model selection based on information criteria such as AIC or its variant AICc, or criteria like CAIC, has proven useful in a variety of contexts including the analysis of open-population capture-recapture data. These criteria have not been intensively evaluated for closed-population capture-recapture models, which are integer parameter models used to estimate population size (N), and there is concern that they will not perform well. To address this concern, we evaluated AIC, AICc, and CAIC model selection for closed-population capture-recapture models by empirically assessing the quality of inference for the population size parameter N. We found that AIC-, AICc-, and CAIC-selected models had smaller relative mean squared errors than randomly selected models, but that confidence interval coverage on N was poor unless unconditional variance estimates (which incorporate model uncertainty) were used to compute confidence intervals. Overall, AIC and AICc outperformed CAIC, and are preferred to CAIC for selection among the closed-population capture-recapture models we investigated. A model averaging approach to estimation, using AIC, AICc, or CAIC to estimate weights, was also investigated and proved superior to estimation using AIC-, AICc-, or CAIC-selected models. Our results suggested that, for model averaging, AIC or AICc should be favored over CAIC for estimating weights.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/(SICI)1521-4036(199808)40:4%3C475::AID-BIMJ475%3E3.0.CO;2-%23","usgsCitation":"Stanley, T.R., and Burnham, K.P., 1998, Information-theoretic model selection and model averaging for closed-population capture-recapture studies: Biometrical Journal, v. 40, no. 4, p. 475-494, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1521-4036(199808)40:4%3C475::AID-BIMJ475%3E3.0.CO;2-%23.","productDescription":"20 p.","startPage":"475","endPage":"494","numberOfPages":"20","costCenters":[{"id":291,"text":"Fort Collins Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":231218,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"40","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"1999-04-19","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a3bbae4b0c8380cd627bd","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Stanley, Thomas R. 0000-0002-8393-0005 stanleyt@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8393-0005","contributorId":209928,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stanley","given":"Thomas","email":"stanleyt@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":291,"text":"Fort Collins Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":386200,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Burnham, Kenneth P.","contributorId":95025,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Burnham","given":"Kenneth","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":189,"text":"Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":386201,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70020568,"text":"70020568 - 1998 - Incubation temperature, developmental biology, and the divergence of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) within Lake Washington","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2019-11-10T11:40:12","indexId":"70020568","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1169,"text":"Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Incubation temperature, developmental biology, and the divergence of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) within Lake Washington","docAbstract":"Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) introduced into Lake Washington in the 1930s and 1940s now spawn at several different sites and over a period of more than 3 months. To test for evolutionary divergence within this derived lineage, embryos that would have incubated in different habitats (Cedar River or Pleasure Point Beach) or at different times (October, November, or December in the Cedar River) were reared in the laboratory at 5, 9, and 12.5??C. Some developmental variation mirrored predictions of adaptive divergence: (i) survival at 12.5??C was highest for embryos most likely to experience such temperatures in the wild (Early Cedar), (ii) development rate was fastest for progeny of late spawners (Late Cedar), and (iii) yolk conversion efficiency was matched to natural incubation temperatures. These patterns likely had a genetic basis because they were observed in a common environment and could not be attributed to differences in egg size. The absolute magnitude of divergence in development rates was moderate (Late Cedar embryos emerged only 6 days earlier at 9??C) and some predictions regarding development rates were not supported. Nonetheless our results provide evidence of adaptive divergence in only 9-14 generations.
","language":"English","publisher":"Canadian Science Publishing ","doi":"10.1139/f98-020","issn":"0706652X","usgsCitation":"Hendry, A., Hensleigh, J., and Reisenbichler, R., 1998, Incubation temperature, developmental biology, and the divergence of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) within Lake Washington: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, v. 55, no. 6, p. 1387-1394, https://doi.org/10.1139/f98-020.","productDescription":"8 p.","startPage":"1387","endPage":"1394","numberOfPages":"8","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":231495,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Washington","otherGeospatial":"Lake Washington","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -122.32452392578125,\n 47.49679221520181\n ],\n [\n -122.13775634765625,\n 47.49679221520181\n ],\n [\n -122.13775634765625,\n 47.75779097897638\n ],\n [\n -122.32452392578125,\n 47.75779097897638\n ],\n [\n -122.32452392578125,\n 47.49679221520181\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"55","issue":"6","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a3a0fe4b0c8380cd61b2f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hendry, A.P.","contributorId":89351,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hendry","given":"A.P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386722,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hensleigh, J.E.","contributorId":86964,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hensleigh","given":"J.E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386721,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Reisenbichler, R.R.","contributorId":77356,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reisenbichler","given":"R.R.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386720,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70020448,"text":"70020448 - 1998 - The chemical evolution of Kurnub Group palcowater in the Sinai-Negev province - A mass balance approach","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:20:15","indexId":"70020448","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":835,"text":"Applied Geochemistry","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The chemical evolution of Kurnub Group palcowater in the Sinai-Negev province - A mass balance approach","docAbstract":"The chemical evolution of the Kurnub Group paleowater was studied starting from rainwater in recharge areas of the Sinai and along groundwater flowpaths leading to the natural outlets of this regional aquifer. This was achieved by investigating the chemical composition of groundwater, ionic ratios, degrees of saturation with common mineral species, normative analysis of dissolved salts and by modeling of rock/water interaction and mixing processes occurring along groundwater flow paths. The initial groundwater composition used is from the Nakhel well in Sinai. It evolves from desert rainwater percolating through typical Kurnub Group lithology in Sinai. This rainwater dissolves mainly gypsum, halite and dolomite together with smaller amounts of marine aerosol and K-feldspar. At the same time it precipitates calcite, SiO2, smectite and degasses CO2. Between the area of Nakhel and the northern Negev the chemistry of Kurnub Group waters is influenced by dissolution of halite and lesser amounts of gypsum of surficial origin in recharge areas, small amounts of feldspars and of dolomite cement in sandstones eroded from the Arabo-Nubian igneous massif of Sinai and organic degradation-derived CO2. Concomitantly, there is precipitation of calcite, smectite, SiO2 and probably analcime characteristic of sediments in continental closed basins. North of the Negev, the Kurnub Group fluids are diluted and altered by mixing with Judea Group aquifer groundwaters. On the E there is mixing with residual brines from the water body ancestral to the Dead Sea, prior to discharge into the Arava valley. Rock/water interaction indicated by NETPATH and PHREEQC modeling is in agreement with lithology and facies changes previously observed in the Kurnub Group sequence.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Applied Geochemistry","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1016/S0883-2927(97)00092-9","issn":"08832927","usgsCitation":"Rosenthal, E., Jones, B., and Weinberger, G., 1998, The chemical evolution of Kurnub Group palcowater in the Sinai-Negev province - A mass balance approach: Applied Geochemistry, v. 13, no. 5, p. 553-569, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0883-2927(97)00092-9.","startPage":"553","endPage":"569","numberOfPages":"17","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":206986,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0883-2927(97)00092-9"},{"id":231485,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"13","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505baa2be4b08c986b32273d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Rosenthal, E.","contributorId":72562,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rosenthal","given":"E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386265,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Jones, B.F.","contributorId":52156,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Jones","given":"B.F.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386263,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Weinberger, G.","contributorId":70958,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Weinberger","given":"G.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":386264,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70019797,"text":"70019797 - 1998 - Proactive responses to human impacts that balance development and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) conservation: An integrative model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:19:23","indexId":"70019797","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"Proactive responses to human impacts that balance development and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) conservation: An integrative model","docAbstract":"Incorporating human impacts into conservation plans is critical to protect natural resources. Using a model that examines how anthropogenic changes might be proactively influenced to promote conservation, we argue that a denser human population does not spell inevitable doom for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Humans affect the Atlantic salmon ecosystem deleteriously through landscape alteration, exploitation, external inputs, and resource competition. An intact ecosystem provides positive feedback to society by providing food, ecosystem services, and improving the quality of life. As Atlantic salmon and associated ecosystem benefits are increasingly valued by society, policies, laws, and regulations that protect salmon populations and habitats are codified into a 'control system' or institutional infrastructure. Via research that helps maintain wild salmon populations and in informing the public about the benefits of a healthy Atlantic salmon ecosystem, scientists can influence public attitudes and facilitate the implementation of environmental policies that moderate harmful anthropogenic changes. Because exchange among scientists is of paramount importance in increasing our understanding of important interrelationships between humans and fish, we recommend the establishment of an international salmon organizational for research.","largerWorkTitle":"Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences","language":"English","issn":"0706652X","usgsCitation":"Wilzbach, M., Mather, M.E., Folt, C., Moore, A., Naiman, R., Youngson, A., and McMenemy, J., 1998, Proactive responses to human impacts that balance development and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) conservation: An integrative model, in Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, v. 55, no. SUPPL.1, p. 288-302.","startPage":"288","endPage":"302","numberOfPages":"15","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":227688,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"55","issue":"SUPPL.1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a8c79e4b0c8380cd7e6ee","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wilzbach, M.A.","contributorId":48505,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wilzbach","given":"M.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383946,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Mather, M. E.","contributorId":71708,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mather","given":"M.","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383947,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Folt, C.L.","contributorId":34671,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Folt","given":"C.L.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383945,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Moore, A.","contributorId":29351,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Moore","given":"A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383943,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Naiman, R.J.","contributorId":14354,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Naiman","given":"R.J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383942,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Youngson, A.F.","contributorId":82076,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Youngson","given":"A.F.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383948,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"McMenemy, J.","contributorId":34280,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McMenemy","given":"J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":383944,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70020972,"text":"70020972 - 1998 - A nonlinear model for analysis of slug-test data","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-03-16T10:31:23","indexId":"70020972","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3722,"text":"Water Resources Research","onlineIssn":"1944-7973","printIssn":"0043-1397","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A nonlinear model for analysis of slug-test data","docAbstract":"While doing slug tests in high-permeability aquifers, we have consistently seen deviations from the expected response of linear theoretical models. Normalized curves do not coincide for various initial heads, as would be predicted by linear theories, and are shifted to larger times for higher initial heads. We have developed a general nonlinear model based on the Navier-Stokes equation, nonlinear frictional loss, non-Darcian flow, acceleration effects, radius changes in the well bore, and a Hvorslev model for the aquifer, which explains these data features. The model produces a very good fit for both oscillatory and nonoscillatory field data, using a single set of physical parameters to predict the field data for various initial displacements at a given well. This is in contrast to linear models which have a systematic lack of fit and indicate that hydraulic conductivity varies with the initial displacement. We recommend multiple slug tests with a considerable variation in initial head displacement to evaluate the possible presence of nonlinear effects. Our conclusion is that the nonlinear model presented here is an excellent tool to analyze slug tests, covering the range from the underdamped region to the overdamped region.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/97WR02710","usgsCitation":"McElwee, C., and Zenner, M., 1998, A nonlinear model for analysis of slug-test data: Water Resources Research, v. 34, no. 1, p. 55-66, https://doi.org/10.1029/97WR02710.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"55","endPage":"66","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":487408,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/97wr02710","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":229884,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"34","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5059e4bfe4b0c8380cd468c6","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"McElwee, C.D.","contributorId":66408,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McElwee","given":"C.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388160,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Zenner, M.A.","contributorId":10575,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Zenner","given":"M.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":388159,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70021109,"text":"70021109 - 1998 - The seismic response of the Los Angeles basin, California","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-10-22T14:50:50.221699","indexId":"70021109","displayToPublicDate":"1998-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1998","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1135,"text":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","onlineIssn":"1943-3573","printIssn":"0037-1106","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The seismic response of the Los Angeles basin, California","docAbstract":"Using strong-motion data recorded in the Los Angeles region from the 1992 (Mw 7.3) Landers earthquake, we have tested the accuracy of existing three-dimensional (3D) velocity models on the simulation of long-period (≧2 sec) ground motions in the Los Angeles basin and surrounding San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys. First, the overall pattern and degree of long-period excitation of the basins were identified in the observations. Within the Los Angeles basin, the recorded amplitudes are about three to four times larger than at sites outside the basins; amplitudes within the San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys are nearly a factor of 3 greater than surrounding bedrock sites. Then, using a 3D finite-difference numerical modeling approach, we analyzed how variations in 3D earth structure affect simulated waveforms, amplitudes, and the fit to the observed patterns of amplification. Significant differences exist in the 3D velocity models of southern California that we tested (Magistrale et al., 1996; Graves, 1996a; Hauksson and Haase, 1997). Major differences in the models include the velocity of the assumed background models; the depth of the Los Angeles basin; and the depth, location, and geometry of smaller basins. The largest disparities in the response of the models are seen for the San Fernando Valley and the deepest portion of the Los Angeles basin. These arise in large part from variations in the structure of the basins, particularly the effective depth extent, which is mainly due to alternative assumptions about the nature of the basin sediment fill. The general ground-motion characteristics are matched by the 3D model simulations, validating the use of 3D modeling with geologically based velocity-structure models. However, significant shortcomings exist in the overall patterns of amplification and the duration of the long-period response. The successes and limitations of the models for reproducing the recorded ground motions as discussed provide the basis and direction for necessary improvements to earth structure models, whether geologically or tomographically derived. The differences in the response of the earth models tested also translate to variable success in the ability to successfully model the data and add uncertainty to estimates of the basin response given input “scenario” earthquake source models.