The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issues forecasts for aftershocks about 20 minutes after most earthquakes above M 5 in the United States and its territories, and updates these forecasts 75 times during the first year. Most of the forecasts are issued automatically, but some forecasts require manual intervention to maintain accuracy. It is important to identify the sequences whose forecasts will benefit from a modified approach so the USGS can provide accurate information to the public. The oaftools R package (Paris and Michael, 2022) includes functions that analyze and plot earthquake sequences and their forecasts to identify which sequences require such intervention. The package includes the Operational Aftershock Forecast (OAF) Viewer, which incorporates the functions into an interactive web environment that can be used to explore aftershock sequences. The OAF Viewer starts with a global map and table of mainshocks. After a mainshock has been selected, the map and a new table show its aftershocks and the OAF Viewer generates five analytical plots: (1) magnitude–time, which is used to look for patterns in the data; (2) cumulative number, to see how the productivity of the sequence compares to a Reasenberg and Jones (1989) aftershock model over time; (3) magnitude–frequency, to compare the ratio of large to small magnitudes and extrapolate to higher magnitudes with sparse data and lower magnitudes with incomplete data; (4) forecast success, to compare the forecasts with observations for a sequence; and (5) parameter–time, which examines the temporal evolution of the forecast model parameters. The user can interact with the functions provided by the oaftools package through the OAF Viewer or by incorporating the functions into their own analysis methods. The OAF Viewer will help seismologists understand complexities in the data, communicate with the public and emergency managers, and improve the OAF system by maintaining operational awareness.
","language":"English","publisher":"Seismological Society of America","doi":"10.1785/0220220108","usgsCitation":"Paris, G.M., and Michael, A.J., 2023, An interactive viewer to improve operational aftershock forecasts: Seismological Research Letters, v. 94, no. 1, p. 473-484, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220108.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"473","endPage":"484","ipdsId":"IP-138814","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":435560,"rank":2,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PZTYEN","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"OAF Tools - R package"},{"id":411488,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"94","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2022-11-14","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Paris, Gabrielle Madison 0000-0001-5008-1441","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5008-1441","contributorId":300636,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Paris","given":"Gabrielle","email":"","middleInitial":"Madison","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":861018,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Michael, Andrew J. 0000-0002-2403-5019 michael@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2403-5019","contributorId":1280,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Michael","given":"Andrew","email":"michael@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":861019,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70238623,"text":"70238623 - 2023 - Habitat associations of riverine fishes among rocky shoals","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-03-15T14:29:14.633881","indexId":"70238623","displayToPublicDate":"2022-11-14T07:09:41","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1471,"text":"Ecology of Freshwater Fish","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Habitat associations of riverine fishes among rocky shoals","docAbstract":"Understanding species' associations with physical habitat conditions is a fundamental goal of ecology. For organisms that occupy lotic ecosystems, relationships to streamflow are of particular importance, but these associations are unstudied for most species. We tested the predictability of fish–microhabitat relationships in river shoals (shallow, rocky areas with relatively swift water flow) using a large data set from the Conasauga River in Georgia, USA. Our objective was to assess the consistency of species-specific relationships with flow-dependent variables (depth, velocity, Reynolds number and Froude number) while accounting for other microhabitat variables (e.g. vegetation). We used data from 8285 seine-sets collected during late summer or autumn at 26 sites over 12 years to relate occurrence and counts of 22 fish species to habitat variables using generalised linear multiple regression models. Results showed that microhabitat models explained a substantial amount of the variation in counts for some species, although other species were poorly predicted. We classified 16 species as velocity specialists and nine species as depth specialists, with six species specialised for depth and velocity and three species classified as depth and velocity generalists. The variability in habitat associations that we observed suggests that species will be unevenly affected by anthropogenic activities that alter flows.
Best management practices (BMPs) have been predominantly used throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) to reduce nutrients and sediments entering streams, rivers, and the bay. These practices have been successful in reducing loads entering the estuary and have shown the potential to reduce other contaminants (pesticides, hormonally active compounds, pathogens) in localized studies and modeled load estimates. However, further understanding of relationships between BMPs and non-nutrient contaminant reductions at regional scales using sampled data would be beneficial. Total estrogenic activity was measured in surface water samples collected over a decade (2008–2018) in 211 undeveloped NHDPlus V2.1 watersheds within the CBW. Bayesian hierarchical modeling between total estrogenic activity and landscape predictors including landcover, runoff, BMP intensity, and a BMP*agriculture intensity interaction term indicates a 96% posterior probability that BMP intensity on agricultural land is reducing total estrogenic activity. Additionally, watersheds with high agriculture and low BMPs had a 49% posterior probability of exceeding an effects-based threshold in aquatic organisms of 1 ng/L but only a 1% posterior probability of exceeding this threshold in high-agriculture, high-BMP watersheds.
Large-scale sociological, geographic, and demographic changes affect the way people interact with and value wildlife. Beliefs and attitudes of stakeholders towards wildlife and uses of wildlife are also shifting along with these geographical and demographic changes. Changes in societal or professional attitudes toward uses of wildlife has potential to create alignment issues between wildlife professionals and society. To inform deliberations within The Wildlife Society (TWS) and the larger population of conservation professionals, we assessed and compared the change over time between 1998 and 2020 in value orientations, beliefs, and attitudes toward uses of wildlife and wildlife management practices of members of TWS as a proxy for practicing wildlife professionals. We administered a Qualtrics web-based survey (n = 3,247), January–March 2020. Respondents closely approximated TWS membership demographically, who identified as male (59.7%) and female (37.7%), and geographically within 50 U.S. states at the time of the survey. Results indicated wildlife conservation professionals express as broad of a spectrum of beliefs, albeit shifting, about consumptive uses of wildlife in hunting and trapping much as they did 2 decades ago. Change in attitudes and beliefs was modest but mutualistic or protectionist beliefs and attitudes increased, especially among younger professionals, toward the ethical acceptability of harvested animals involving fair chase and sportsmanship (72% in 1998; 93.2% in 2020), and in expressed acceptance of regulated hunting and trapping. Our work provides insights into potential focus areas of training and education, such as Conservation Leaders for Tomorrow and Trapping Matters.
","language":"English","publisher":"The Wildlife Society","doi":"10.1002/wsb.1419","usgsCitation":"Menale, R., Riley, S.J., and Organ, J.F., 2023, Attitudes of the Wildlife Society members toward uses of wildlife, v. 47, no. 2, e1419, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.1419.","productDescription":"e1419, 17 p.","ipdsId":"IP-138461","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":445259,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.1419","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":433161,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"47","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-01-23","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Menale, Rachel","contributorId":341365,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Menale","given":"Rachel","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6601,"text":"Michigan State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908306,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Riley, Shawn J.","contributorId":202177,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Riley","given":"Shawn","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":908307,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Organ, John F. 0000-0002-0959-0639 jorgan@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0959-0639","contributorId":189047,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Organ","given":"John","email":"jorgan@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"F.","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":908308,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70256620,"text":"70256620 - 2023 - The effect of scent lures on detection is not equitable among sympatric species","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-08-27T14:51:35.039219","indexId":"70256620","displayToPublicDate":"2022-11-11T09:48:36","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3777,"text":"Wildlife Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The effect of scent lures on detection is not equitable among sympatric species","docAbstract":"Context: Camera trapping is an effective tool for cost-efficient monitoring of species over large temporal and spatial scales and it is becoming an increasingly popular method for investigating wildlife communities and trophic interactions. However, camera trapping targeting rare and elusive species can be hampered by low detection rates, which can decrease the accuracy and precision of results from common analytical approaches (e.g., occupancy modeling, capture-recapture). Consequently, researchers often employ attractants to increase detection without accounting for how attractants influence detection of species among trophic levels.
Aims: We aimed to evaluate the influences of a commonly used non-species-specific olfactory lure (i.e. sardines) and sampling design on detection of four species (i.e. bobcat [Lynx rufus], coyote [Canis latrans], raccoon [Procyon lotor], and eastern cottontail [Sylvilagus floridanus]) that represented a range of foraging guilds in an agricultural landscape.
Methods: We set 180 camera stations, each for ∼28 days, during the summer of 2019. We set cameras with one of three lure treatments: (1) olfactory lure, (2) no olfactory lure, or (3) olfactory lure only during the latter half of the survey. We evaluated the influence of the lure at three temporal scales of detection (i.e. daily probability of detection, independent sequences per daily detection, and triggers per independent sequence).
Key results: The lure tended to positively influence detection of coyotes and raccoons but negatively influenced detection of bobcats and eastern cottontails. The influence of the lure varied among temporal scales of detection.
Conclusions: Scent lures can differentially influence detection of species within or among tropic levels, and the influence of a scent lure may vary among temporal scales.
Implications: Our results demonstrate the importance of evaluating the influence of an attractant for each focal species when using camera data to conduct multi-species or community analyses, accounting for variation in sampling strategies across cameras, and identifying the appropriate species-specific temporal resolution for assessing variation in detection data. Furthermore, we highlight that care should be taken when using camera data as an index of relative abundance (e.g. as is commonly done with prey species) when there is variation in the use of lures across cameras.
","language":"English","publisher":"CSIRO Publishing","doi":"10.1071/WR22094","usgsCitation":"Dart, M.M., Perkins, L., Jenks, J., Hatfield, G., and Lonsinger, R.C., 2023, The effect of scent lures on detection is not equitable among sympatric species: Wildlife Research, v. 50, no. 3, p. 190-200, https://doi.org/10.1071/WR22094.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"190","endPage":"200","ipdsId":"IP-135401","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":433198,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"50","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2022-11-11","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dart, Marlin M.","contributorId":340675,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Dart","given":"Marlin","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":5089,"text":"South Dakota State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908346,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Perkins, Lora B.","contributorId":224968,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Perkins","given":"Lora B.","affiliations":[{"id":26958,"text":"South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908347,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Jenks, Jonathan A.","contributorId":264322,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Jenks","given":"Jonathan A.","affiliations":[{"id":5089,"text":"South Dakota State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908348,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Hatfield, Gary","contributorId":341397,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hatfield","given":"Gary","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":5089,"text":"South Dakota State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908349,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Lonsinger, Robert Charles 0000-0002-1040-7299","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1040-7299","contributorId":340524,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lonsinger","given":"Robert","email":"","middleInitial":"Charles","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":908350,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70238549,"text":"70238549 - 2023 - Geochemistry of the Cretaceous Mowry Shale in the Wind River Basin, Wyoming","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-07-11T15:28:59.13242","indexId":"70238549","displayToPublicDate":"2022-11-11T07:22:49","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1723,"text":"GSA Bulletin","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Geochemistry of the Cretaceous Mowry Shale in the Wind River Basin, Wyoming","docAbstract":"The siliceous nature of the Mowry Shale distinguishes it from many of the well-studied organic-rich mudstones of the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway. Available models of organic enrichment in mudstones rarely incorporate detailed biomarker, bulk organic, inorganic, and mineralogy data. Here, we used these data to evaluate how variations in organic matter source, productivity, dilution, and preservation modulated organic matter accumulation during the deposition of the Mowry Shale, while also demonstrating the benefits of this integrated approach. An organic stable carbon isotope vertical profile for the Mowry Shale is presented to test whether the Mowry Shale was deposited during oceanic anoxic event 1d (OAE 1d), thereby contributing to organic enrichment in the Mowry Shale.
","language":"English","publisher":"Geological Society of America","doi":"10.1130/B36382.1","usgsCitation":"French, K.L., Birdwell, J.E., and Lillis, P.G., 2023, Geochemistry of the Cretaceous Mowry Shale in the Wind River Basin, Wyoming: GSA Bulletin, v. 135, no. 7-8, p. 1899-1922, https://doi.org/10.1130/B36382.1.","productDescription":"24 p.","startPage":"1899","endPage":"1922","ipdsId":"IP-131176","costCenters":[{"id":164,"text":"Central Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":445264,"rank":3,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1130/b36382.1","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":435562,"rank":2,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9FKDVK2","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Data release for Geochemistry of the Cretaceous Mowry Shale in the Wind River Basin, Wyoming"},{"id":409791,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Wyoming","otherGeospatial":"Wind River basin","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -107.00,\n 43.00\n ],\n [\n -107.00,\n 42.20\n ],\n [\n -106.2,\n 42.20\n ],\n [\n -106.2,\n 43.00\n ],\n [\n -107.00,\n 43.00\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"135","issue":"7-8","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2022-11-11","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"French, Katherine L. 0000-0002-0153-8035","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0153-8035","contributorId":205462,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"French","given":"Katherine","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":164,"text":"Central Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":255,"text":"Energy Resources Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":857833,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Birdwell, Justin E. 0000-0001-8263-1452 jbirdwell@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8263-1452","contributorId":3302,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Birdwell","given":"Justin","email":"jbirdwell@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":164,"text":"Central Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":569,"text":"Southwest Climate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":255,"text":"Energy Resources Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":857834,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Lillis, Paul G. 0000-0002-7508-1699 plillis@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7508-1699","contributorId":1817,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lillis","given":"Paul","email":"plillis@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":164,"text":"Central Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":857835,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70238554,"text":"70238554 - 2023 - Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-04-11T16:54:56.776638","indexId":"70238554","displayToPublicDate":"2022-11-11T06:51:55","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1447,"text":"Ecohydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics","docAbstract":"In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-based metrics. To address this knowledge gap, we developed and examined 27 climate and ecological drought metrics across dryland areas of the western U.S. Included in the 27 metrics is a suite of 19 largely new “ecological drought metrics” that are designed to quantify multiple aspects of environmental limitation in drylands, including overall growing conditions, seasonal fluctuations, seasonal moisture timing, exposure to extreme drought, and recruitment potential for perennial plants. To quantify these metrics, we simulated water balance pools and fluxes of daily soil moisture at multiple depths with historical weather from 1970-2010 using the SOILWAT2 ecosystem water balance model. We assessed the relationships among these metrics and their spatial and temporal patterns. We found that the inclusion of ecological drought metrics substantially increased the dimensionality of the climate metrics dataset; the number of independent variables needed to explain 90% of the variance in the dataset increased with the addition of ecological drought metrics. Spatial patterns in overall growing conditions represented well-known differences among ecoregions, for example high temperatures and low precipitation in the southwest and cool temperatures and greater precipitation in the northeast. Seasonal fluctuation in soil water availability (SWA) was greatest in the southwest (Mojave Desert) while fluctuation in climatic water deficit (CWD) was greatest in the northwest (northern Great Basin and Columbia Plateau). Seasonal timing of moisture also differed among metrics; the timing of wet degree days (WDD), SWA and CWD were only weakly related to seasonal timing of precipitation. Plant recruitment metrics varied strongly across western drylands. In the Great Plains, recruitment events occurred more frequently and lasted longer than in the intermountain regions, where recruitment events were comparatively rare and short. These ecological drought metrics provide new insight into patterns of soil moisture and temperature that shape the structure and function of dryland ecosystems. The metrics will be useful for assessing the potential impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and developing adaptive resource management strategies to sustain dryland ecosystem services in a changing world.
Occurring globally, pockmarks are seafloor depressions associated with seabed fluid escape. Pockmark ubiquity and morphologic heterogeneity result in an irregular seafloor that can be difficult to quantitatively describe. To address this challenge, we test the hypothesis that deep-learning based object detection and segmentation can be used to develop data-driven models for pockmark identification and characterization. This study describes the development, testing, and deployment of eight separate deep learning-based pockmark detection models using publicly available, gridded bathymetric data from the Belfast Bay, Maine, USA, Blue Hill Bay, Maine, USA, and Passamaquoddy Bay, New Brunswick, Canada estuarine pockmark fields. The models tested include three types of convolutional neural network architectures, as well as a generative adversarial network. We find that the data-driven models consistently resolve pockmarks from the background seafloor, allowing for quick and accurate delineation of pockmarks in a variety of seabed habitats. With these delineations we examine and compare the morphology of the muddy estuarine pockmark fields. We then compare these morphometric results to pockmark fields in two distinct settings, the sandy German Bight and the Aquitaine continental slope. We find that in all the pockmark fields a power law relationship, generally, exists between pockmark area and pockmark depth, though this relationship deteriorates with the smallest pockmarks, suggesting that there may be a minimum size needed for geomorphic stability. These results show that the training data and trained models developed here can be applied for quick detection and characterization of pockmarks where other high-resolution bathymetry is available, demonstrating the value of data-driven detection models for characterizing morphologically complex seafloors. Last, the morphologic characteristics of pockmarks identified in this study will aid future studies in relating pockmark size to environmental characteristics like seabed sediment texture and regional gradient.
Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km2 across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid-century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest.
Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to be an important part of global efforts to decarbonize the energy industry. Widespread deployment of GCS relies on strategies to maximize CO2 injection rates while minimizing reservoir pressurization that could induce seismicity and/or fluid leakage into groundwater resources. Brine extraction from CO2 storage formations with subsurface reinjection elsewhere could mitigate pressure buildup associated with GCS. Therefore, evaluation of CO2 storage resources should consider the injectivity of produced brine in geologic layers above or below the CO2 storage formation. For this study, a methodology was developed to estimate brine injectivity from formation depth and thickness using flow modeling and optimization techniques. The methodology was demonstrated in the Illinois Basin, where GCS in the Mt. Simon Sandstone is ongoing. Based on pressure constraints and considering only regions of the shallower units where salinity and sealing conditions were met, maximum brine injection rates were estimated within the Mt. Simon and three overlying hydrostratigraphic layers. Results indicate that a large area exists where CO2 injectivity could be optimized by brine extraction and reinjection.
Large-scale, climate-induced synchrony in the productivity of fish populations is becoming more pronounced in the world's oceans. As synchrony increases, a population's “portfolio” of responses can be diminished, in turn reducing its resilience to strong perturbation. Here we argue that the costs and benefits of trait synchronization, such as the expression of growth rate, are context dependent. Contrary to prevailing views, synchrony among individuals could actually be beneficial for populations if growth synchrony increases during favorable conditions, and then declines under poor conditions when a broader portfolio of responses could be useful. Importantly, growth synchrony among individuals within populations has seldom been measured, despite well-documented evidence of synchrony across populations. Here, we used century-scale time series of annual otolith growth to test for changes in growth synchronization among individuals within multiple populations of a marine keystone species (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua). On the basis of 74,662 annual growth increments recorded in 13,749 otoliths, we detected a rising conformity in long-term growth rates within five northeast Atlantic cod populations in response to both favorable growth conditions and a large-scale, multidecadal mode of climate variability similar to the East Atlantic Pattern. The within-population synchrony was distinct from the across-population synchrony commonly reported for large-scale environmental drivers. Climate-linked, among-individual growth synchrony was also identified in other Northeast Atlantic pelagic, deep-sea and bivalve species. We hypothesize that growth synchrony in good years and growth asynchrony in poorer years reflects adaptive trait optimization and bet hedging, respectively, that could confer an unexpected, but pervasive and stabilizing, impact on marine population productivity in response to large-scale environmental change.
Stock assessment modeling provides a means to estimate the population dynamics of invasive fishes and may do so despite data limitations. Blue catfish (Ictalurus furcatus) were introduced to the Chesapeake Bay watershed to support recreational fisheries but also consume species of conservation need and economic importance. To assess management tradeoffs, managers need to understand the current status of the population and anticipate future population abundance and trends. A Bayesian size-based stock assessment model was used to estimate blue catfish abundance, fishing mortality, and size structure over time (2001–2016) in the tidal James River. The model estimated population size increases until around 2006, with declines in total abundance after 2011 and large blue catfish (≥80 cm total length) after 2001. These first estimates of blue catfish population dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay region provide inputs for projection models to evaluate prospective management actions and identify monitoring needs.
Mass capture of flightless geese during the summer is a common trapping technique to obtain large numbers of individuals for research and marking, but few studies have assessed the impacts of this method on the survival of after-hatch-year geese. We evaluated the effects of holding time and captured flock size on the survival of >26,000 subadult (second yr) and adult (≥third yr) greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) banded in Alaska, USA, 1999–2017. We constructed models with and without capture effects to analyze our band-recovery data and used Akaike's Information Criterion to rank our model set. Models that included both capture-related variables ranked highest. Longer individual holding times negatively affected survival during the first year after banding, and effects were greatest during the earliest years of our study when holding times were generally longer and protocols to minimize negative capture effects were less refined. There was a positive relationship between survival and captured flock size. We suggest practitioners reduce holding times of geese during mass captures to the extent practicable and continually evaluate and refine their methods to minimize negative capture effects.
Urban ammonia (NH3) emissions contribute to poor local air quality and can be transported to rural landscapes, impacting sensitive ecosystems. The Colorado Front Range urban corridor encompasses the Denver Metropolitan Area, rural farmland/rangeland and montane forest between the city and the Rocky Mountains. Reactive nitrogen emissions from the corridor are partly responsible for increased N deposition to the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in this region. To determine the significance of individual NH3 sources to WUI ecosystems, we measured the concentration and isotopic composition (δ15N–NH3) of ambient NH3(g) from April to October 2018 across a five-site urban to rural gradient in the corridor. The urban sites had higher NH3 concentrations and δ15N–NH3 values than the rural/suburban sites. Based on isotope mixing models, NH3 emission source contributions for all sites were fertilizer (12 ± 5.7%), livestock waste (18 ± 12%), vehicles (37 ± 23%), and biomass burning (34 ± 20%). Vehicle contributions were consistent across all months with an average of 35% and summer months showed a peak in biomass burning contributions (40%). As wildfires are projected to increase due to climate change, we stress a need for constraints on the isotopic signature of NH3 emitted from wildfires. Vehicle emissions contributed the greatest amount of NH3 (40%) at the urban sites while rural/suburban sites had higher agricultural contributions (41%). Had 2018 not had an anomalously high wildfire season, 46% and 60% of the NH3 would have been attributed to vehicle emissions at the WUI site and urban sites, respectively. NH3 emissions have historically been ascribed to agricultural activities but these findings illustrate the universal significance of vehicle emissions and the potential for sustained wildfire activity to be a primary contributor to NH3. Air quality (e.g., particulate matter) and nitrogen deposition reduction plans may benefit by including management practices that address vehicle NH3 emissions.
Earthquakes on strike-slip faults are preserved in the geomorphic record by offset landforms that span a range of displacements, from small offsets created in the most recent earthquake (MRE) to large offsets that record cumulative slip from multiple prior events. An exponential decay in the number of large cumulative offsets has been observed on many faults, and a leading hypothesis is that climate controls the rate of decay. We present offset measurements compiled from 31 studies of strike-slip faults with evidence of multiple paleoearthquakes and corresponding climatic and tectonic information to test this hypothesis. Both the global compilation and numerical landscape evolution modeling reveal that the decay rate in large offsets is negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation. Faults in dry regions with high drainage density more commonly preserve small MRE offsets, and faults in wet regions with lower drainage density more commonly preserve a mix of small MRE and large cumulative offsets. Geomorphology of faults in different climates supports this result and illustrates precipitation’s effect on the development and preservation of offset channels. Our findings imply that current and past climate affect how displacement on strike-slip faults is recorded and interpreted to inform earthquake history.
Habitat suitability is a consequence of interacting environmental factors. In riparian ecosystems, suitable plant habitat is influenced by interactions between stream hydrology and climate, hereafter referred to as “hydroclimate”. We tested the hypothesis that hydroclimate variables would improve the fit of ecological niche models for a suite of riparian species using occurrence data from the western United States. We focus on the climate conditions (temperature, precipitation and vapor pressure deficit) during the months of lowest and highest streamflow as integrative hydroclimate metrics of resource and stress levels. We found that the inclusion of hydroclimate variables improved model fit for all species in the western USA dataset. We then tested the utility of the improved habitat suitability models by projecting them onto a regulated segment of the Colorado River to assess potential impacts of streamflow seasonality on vegetation metrics of management concern. Species frequency derived from independent survey data in the Colorado River segment was significantly higher for species with predicted suitable habitat than for species without predicted suitable habitat. Under different simulated hydrographs for the Colorado River, overall species richness was predicted to be greatest with peak streamflows during summer, and native-to-non-native species ratios were predicted to be greatest with lowest streamflows in winter. Summer high flows were particularly associated with higher predicted habitat suitability for species that have increased in cover over recent decades (e.g., Pluchea sericea, Baccharis species). We conclude that hydroclimate covariates can be useful tools for predicting how riparian vegetation communities respond to changes in the seasonal timing of low and high streamflows.
Two radioactive elements, uranium (U) and radon (Rn), which are of potential concern in New Hampshire (NH) groundwater, are investigated. Exceedance probability maps are tools to highlight locations where the concentrations of undesirable substances in the groundwater may be elevated. Two forms of statistical analysis are used to create exceedance probability maps for U and Rn in NH groundwater. The first, Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), was selected for estimating U exceedance values. It computes exceedance values directly using the Bernoulli distribution function. The second method of statistical analysis used for Rn to determine exceedance probabilities is ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. In the process of determining exceedance probabilities for U and Rn, the utility of a new dataset is investigated. That new predictor dataset is the Multi-Order Hydrologic Position (MOHP) dataset. MOHP raster datasets have been produced nationally for the conterminous United States at a 30-m resolution. The concept behind MOHP is that, for any given point on the earth's surface, there is the potential for a longer groundwater flow path as one goes deeper beneath the land surface. MOHP predictors were tested in both models. Three MOHP predictors were found useful in the BRT model and two in the OLS model. MOHP data were found useful as predictors along with other site characteristics in predicting U and Rn exceedance probabilities in New Hampshire groundwater.
Seasonal movements cued by environmental variables are a critical component of riverine fish life history. Life-history events for species such as blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus are likely cued by discharge and temperature and may be disrupted if those life-history events and environmental regimes are mismatched. However, this effect may be dependent upon the habitat occupied when environmental cues are received by individuals. We tracked telemetered blue sucker in the Colorado River, Texas, USA, from 2015 to 2017 and modelled the relative effects of discharge, temperature and habitat structure on seasonal movement patterns. Tagged fish varied in their propensity to move, although most returned to their original tagging locations. Decreasing temperatures and increasing discharge resulted in increased seasonal movements. Temperature and discharge had the largest effect on movement behaviour, but the magnitude of movements was largely dependent on the year. Temperatures between 12 and 19°C and discharges between 10 and 240 m3s−1 resulted in greater probabilities of spawning movements. Spawning was most probable in 2015 and reduced or halted in 2016 and 2017. Future climate scenarios suggest North America will experience increased drought, warmer temperatures and more variable weather patterns. These future scenarios could negatively impact blue sucker by disrupting environmental cues and habitat availability for seasonal life-history events. Our results suggest temperature and discharge are critical cues for the species, but that their combined effect is largely dependent on the occupied habitat.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/eff.12687","usgsCitation":"Acre, M.R., Grabowski, T.B., Leavitt, D.J., Smith, N.G., Pease, A.A., Bean, P.T., and Geeslin, D., 2023, Mismatch between temperature and discharge disrupts spawning cues in a fluvial specialist, blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus: Ecology of Freshwater Fish, v. 32, no. 2, p. 305-321, https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12687.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"305","endPage":"321","ipdsId":"IP-112567","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":482336,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Texas","otherGeospatial":"Colorado River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -97.75,\n 30.4\n ],\n [\n -97.75,\n 29.4\n ],\n [\n -96.25,\n 29.4\n ],\n [\n -96.25,\n 30.4\n ],\n [\n -97.75,\n 30.4\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"32","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2022-10-31","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Acre, Matthew Ross 0000-0002-5417-9523","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5417-9523","contributorId":268034,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Acre","given":"Matthew","email":"","middleInitial":"Ross","affiliations":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":928132,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Grabowski, Timothy B. 0000-0001-9763-8948 tgrabowski@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9763-8948","contributorId":4178,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Grabowski","given":"Timothy","email":"tgrabowski@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":928134,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Leavitt, Daniel J.","contributorId":338057,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Leavitt","given":"Daniel","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":81077,"text":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":928172,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Smith, Nathan G.","contributorId":268036,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Smith","given":"Nathan","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":55541,"text":"Heart of the Hills Fisheries Science Center","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":928173,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Pease, Allison A.","contributorId":201493,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pease","given":"Allison","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":928174,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Bean, Preston T.","contributorId":172956,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bean","given":"Preston","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":928175,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Geeslin, Dakus","contributorId":301932,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Geeslin","given":"Dakus","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":62404,"text":"Texas Parks and Wildlife","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":928176,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70240254,"text":"70240254 - 2023 - Mismatch between temperature and discharge disrupts spawning cues in a fluvial specialist, blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-03-15T15:07:22.606179","indexId":"70240254","displayToPublicDate":"2022-10-31T09:07:45","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1471,"text":"Ecology of Freshwater Fish","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Mismatch between temperature and discharge disrupts spawning cues in a fluvial specialist, blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus","title":"Mismatch between temperature and discharge disrupts spawning cues in a fluvial specialist, blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus","docAbstract":"Seasonal movements cued by environmental variables are a critical component of riverine fish life history. Life-history events for species such as blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus are likely cued by discharge and temperature and may be disrupted if those life-history events and environmental regimes are mismatched. However, this effect may be dependent upon the habitat occupied when environmental cues are received by individuals. We tracked telemetered blue sucker in the Colorado River, Texas, USA, from 2015 to 2017 and modelled the relative effects of discharge, temperature and habitat structure on seasonal movement patterns. Tagged fish varied in their propensity to move, although most returned to their original tagging locations. Decreasing temperatures and increasing discharge resulted in increased seasonal movements. Temperature and discharge had the largest effect on movement behaviour, but the magnitude of movements was largely dependent on the year. Temperatures between 12 and 19°C and discharges between 10 and 240 m3s−1 resulted in greater probabilities of spawning movements. Spawning was most probable in 2015 and reduced or halted in 2016 and 2017. Future climate scenarios suggest North America will experience increased drought, warmer temperatures and more variable weather patterns. These future scenarios could negatively impact blue sucker by disrupting environmental cues and habitat availability for seasonal life-history events. Our results suggest temperature and discharge are critical cues for the species, but that their combined effect is largely dependent on the occupied habitat.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/eff.12687","usgsCitation":"Acre, M.R., Grabowski, T.B., Leavitt, D., Smith, N.G., Pease, A.A., Bean, P.T., and Geeslin, D., 2023, Mismatch between temperature and discharge disrupts spawning cues in a fluvial specialist, blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus: Ecology of Freshwater Fish, v. 32, no. 2, p. 305-321, https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12687.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"305","endPage":"321","ipdsId":"IP-137756","costCenters":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":412616,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Texas","otherGeospatial":"lower Colorado River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -97.86373123082404,\n 30.561041444362274\n ],\n [\n -97.86373123082404,\n 28.5\n ],\n [\n -95.2430023882664,\n 28.5\n ],\n [\n -95.2430023882664,\n 30.561041444362274\n ],\n [\n -97.86373123082404,\n 30.561041444362274\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"32","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2022-10-31","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Acre, Matthew Ross 0000-0002-5417-9523","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5417-9523","contributorId":268034,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Acre","given":"Matthew","email":"","middleInitial":"Ross","affiliations":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":863092,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Grabowski, Timothy B. 0000-0001-9763-8948 tgrabowski@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9763-8948","contributorId":4178,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Grabowski","given":"Timothy","email":"tgrabowski@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":863093,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Leavitt, Daniel J.","contributorId":268035,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Leavitt","given":"Daniel J.","affiliations":[{"id":55540,"text":"Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southwest","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":863094,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Smith, Nathan G.","contributorId":268036,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Smith","given":"Nathan","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":55541,"text":"Heart of the Hills Fisheries Science Center","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":863095,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Pease, Allison A.","contributorId":201493,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pease","given":"Allison","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":863096,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Bean, Preston T.","contributorId":172956,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bean","given":"Preston","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":863097,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Geeslin, Dakus","contributorId":301932,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Geeslin","given":"Dakus","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":62404,"text":"Texas Parks and Wildlife","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":863098,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70238054,"text":"70238054 - 2023 - Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-11-08T12:49:09.1771","indexId":"70238054","displayToPublicDate":"2022-10-30T06:45:51","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3352,"text":"Science of the Total Environment","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts","docAbstract":"As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.
We produced a globally distributed catalog of earthquakes and nuclear explosions with calibrated hypocenters, referred to as the Global Catalog of Calibrated Earthquake Locations (GCCEL). This dataset currently contains 18,782 events in 289 clusters with >3.2 million arrival times observed at 19,258 stations. The term “calibrated” refers to the property that the hypocenters are minimally biased by unknown Earth structure. In addition, we calculate uncertainties using empirically determined variability of the arrival‐time data itself, specific to each calibrated cluster of hypocenters. Outliers in the arrival‐time dataset are removed based on measured variability of the data. In each cluster, we estimate the empirically determined uncertainty for each set of station‐phase arrival times. We use a version of the hypocentroidal decomposition multiple event relocation algorithm specifically adapted for calibrated relocations of clusters of seismic events. Most clusters are calibrated by fitting the subset of direct crustal first arrivals (Pg and Sg) with a locally appropriate travel‐time model to estimate the cluster hypocentroid. A few clusters are calibrated by aligning the pattern of relative locations in space and time with one or more events for which a ground‐truth hypocenter is available from an independent source with known uncertainty, such as a nuclear explosion. Epicentral uncertainties in GCCEL typically range from 1 to 5 km with a 90% confidence interval. Most events have depth constraint from one or more sources, usually with an uncertainty of ≤5 km. GCCEL is a significant resource for research at local, regional, and global scales because it provides minimally biased absolute hypocenters, meaningful associated error estimates, and curated arrival times as a reference dataset that can be used as prior constraints in the development of new regional, national, and global earthquake catalogs; validation of new location techniques; and the generation of advanced Earth models.
","language":"English","publisher":"Seismological Society of America","doi":"10.1785/0220220217","usgsCitation":"Bergman, E.A., Benz, H.M., Yeck, W.L., Karasözen, E., Engdahl, E., Ghods, A., Hayes, G., and Earle, P.S., 2023, A global catalog of calibrated earthquake locations: Seismological Research Letters, v. 94, no. 1, p. 485-495, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220217.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"485","endPage":"495","ipdsId":"IP-134306","costCenters":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":435566,"rank":2,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P95R8K8G","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Global Catalog of Calibrated Earthquake Locations"},{"id":408855,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"otherGeospatial":"Earth","volume":"94","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2022-10-27","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Bergman, Eric A. 0000-0002-7069-8286","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7069-8286","contributorId":84513,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bergman","given":"Eric","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":856034,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Benz, Harley M. 0000-0002-6860-2134 benz@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6860-2134","contributorId":794,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Benz","given":"Harley","email":"benz@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":856035,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Yeck, William L. 0000-0002-2801-8873 wyeck@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2801-8873","contributorId":147558,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Yeck","given":"William","email":"wyeck@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":309,"text":"Geology and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":856036,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Karasözen, Ezgi","contributorId":298619,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Karasözen","given":"Ezgi","affiliations":[{"id":64627,"text":"Alaska Earthquake Center, University of Alaska-Fairbanks","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":856037,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Engdahl, E. Robert","contributorId":298620,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Engdahl","given":"E. Robert","affiliations":[{"id":36627,"text":"University of Colorado, Boulder","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":856038,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Ghods, Abdolreza","contributorId":244222,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ghods","given":"Abdolreza","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":48866,"text":"Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":856039,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Hayes, Gavin P. 0000-0003-3323-0112","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3323-0112","contributorId":6157,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hayes","given":"Gavin P.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":856040,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Earle, Paul S. 0000-0002-3500-017X pearle@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3500-017X","contributorId":173551,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Earle","given":"Paul","email":"pearle@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":856041,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8}]}} ,{"id":70241095,"text":"70241095 - 2023 - A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-03-15T15:25:36.985892","indexId":"70241095","displayToPublicDate":"2022-10-26T09:11:43","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2032,"text":"International Journal of Climatology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts","docAbstract":"Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major-drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short-term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short-term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.
","language":"English","publisher":"Royal Meteorological Society","doi":"10.1002/joc.7904","usgsCitation":"McCabe, G.J., Wolock, D.M., Lombard, M.A., Dudley, R.W., Hammond, J.C., Hecht, J.S., Hodgkins, G.A., Olson, C.G., Sando, R., Simeone, C.E., and Wieczorek, M.E., 2023, A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts: International Journal of Climatology, v. 43, no. 3, p. 1234-1250, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7904.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"1234","endPage":"1250","ipdsId":"IP-140211","costCenters":[{"id":37778,"text":"WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":413901,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"MultiPolygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n [\n -94.81758,\n 49.38905\n ],\n [\n 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csimeone@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3263-6452","contributorId":221126,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Simeone","given":"Caelan","email":"csimeone@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":466,"text":"New England Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":866020,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Wieczorek, Michael E. 0000-0003-3114-8369 mewieczo@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3114-8369","contributorId":302956,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wieczorek","given":"Michael","email":"mewieczo@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":41514,"text":"Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":866021,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11}]}} ,{"id":70254842,"text":"70254842 - 2023 - Geomorphology shapes relationships between animal communities and ecosystem function in large rivers","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-06-12T00:05:24.430001","indexId":"70254842","displayToPublicDate":"2022-10-25T19:04:10","publicationYear":"2023","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2939,"text":"Oikos","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Geomorphology shapes relationships between animal communities and ecosystem function in large rivers","docAbstract":"Understanding how the Earth's surface (i.e. ‘nature's stage') influences connections between biodiversity and ecosystem function (BEF) is a central objective in ecology. Despite recent calls to examine these connections at multiple trophic levels and at more complex and realistic scales, little is known about how landscape structure shapes BEF relationships among animal communities in nature. We coupled high-resolution habitat mapping with extensive field sampling to quantify connections among the geophysical habitat templet, invertebrate assemblages and secondary production in two large North American riverscapes. Patterns of sediment size governed invertebrate assemblage structure, with particularly strong effects on composition, richness and taxonomic and functional diversity. These relationships propagated to drive positive relationships between biodiversity and secondary production that were modified by scale, context-dependencies and anthropogenic modification. Finally, leveraging spatially-explicit descriptions of geophysical and biological properties, we uncovered distinct and nested spatial scales of biodiversity and secondary production, and suggest that multiple geophysical processes simultaneously influence these patterns at different scales. Together, our findings advance our understanding of relationships between the physical templet and patterns of BEF, and help to predict how perturbations to the Earth's surface may propagate to influence biodiversity and energy flux through food webs.
Uranium‑lead perovskite in situ geochronology has become a cornerstone technique for determining the emplacement timing of alkaline, ultrapotassic, and silica-undersaturated igneous rocks, kimberlites, and carbonatites. Accurate in situ dates are dependent on the availability of matrix matched mineral reference materials which themselves are chemically well characterized and dated accurately to the highest possible precision. When dating perovskite to high precision, such as by isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS), appropriately accounting and correcting for the quantity and isotopic composition of Pb incorporated into the crystal upon crystallization (Pbi) is a large source of uncertainty and potential inaccuracy. Unfortunately, although ultra-high precision perovskite dates are attainable with modern mass spectrometry techniques, the accuracy of applied Pbi compositions, which can be a considerable percentage of total Pb in a crystal, has not kept pace, resulting in percent level inaccuracy on precisely measured isotopic ratios.
In an effort to characterize the age and initial Pb isotopic composition of a readily available, relatively pure perovskite endmember (93–98%) which will be useful as a matrix matched age reference material for in situ U-Pb geochronology, we date crystals isolated from three samples from the Ice River Complex (samples 81IR6, I90.3, and I92.30) by ID-TIMS and evaluate their suitability as known-age reference materials. We directly determine the isotopic composition of Pbi in each sample by ID-TIMS measurement of cogenetic low 238U/204Pb (μ < 500) phlogopite, apatite, and/or clinopyroxene. Using these initial common Pb isotopic compositions, which are significantly more radiogenic than those predicted by age appropriate Pb evolution models, we obtain ultra-precise weighted-mean 206Pb/238U perovskite dates of 355.83 ± 0.14, 355.04 ± 0.15, and 357.34 ± 0.12 Ma on the three Ice River samples, respectively. These dates are consistent with the relative emplacement ages previously established for units in the Ice River layered ultramafic series based on field relationships. They also demonstrate the feasibility of attaining accurate perovskite dates in instances when maximum precision is critical by utilizing ID-TIMS analysis of cogenetic low uranium phases for direct measurement of Pbi.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elesvier","doi":"10.1016/j.chemgeo.2022.121187","usgsCitation":"Burgess, S.D., Heaman, L.M., and Bowring, S.A., 2023, High-precision ID-TIMS U-Pb geochronology of perovskite (CaTiO3) from the Ice River Complex, southeastern British Columbia: Chemical Geology, v. 616, 121187, 14 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2022.121187.","productDescription":"121187, 14 p.","ipdsId":"IP-139900","costCenters":[{"id":617,"text":"Volcano Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":445325,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2022.121187","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":412023,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Canada","state":"British Columbia","otherGeospatial":"Ice River Complex","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -116.34950948827608,\n 51.223598537476136\n ],\n [\n -116.35438310285049,\n 51.09829987106596\n ],\n [\n -116.17649617088217,\n 51.09829439916399\n ],\n [\n -116.1911170146057,\n 51.22360289128022\n ],\n [\n -116.34950948827608,\n 51.223598537476136\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"616","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Burgess, Seth D. 0000-0002-4238-3797 sburgess@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4238-3797","contributorId":200371,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Burgess","given":"Seth","email":"sburgess@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":617,"text":"Volcano Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":861755,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Heaman, Larry M 0000-0002-4456-9560","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4456-9560","contributorId":301017,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Heaman","given":"Larry","email":"","middleInitial":"M","affiliations":[{"id":36696,"text":"University of Alberta","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":861756,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Bowring, Samuel A.","contributorId":271058,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bowring","given":"Samuel","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":12444,"text":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":861757,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}