The many volcanoes of the remote and mostly uninhabited Kurile Island arc (fig. 1; table 1) pose a serious hazard for air traffic in the North Pacific. Ash clouds from Kurile eruptions can impact some of the busiest air travel routes in the world and drift quickly into airspace managed by three countries: Russia, Japan, and the United States. Prevailing westerly winds throughout the region will most commonly send ash from any Kurile eruption directly across the parallel North Pacific airways between North America and Asia (Kristine A. Nelson, National Weather Service, oral commun., 2006; fig. 1). This report presents maps showing locations of the 36 most active Kurile volcanoes plotted on Operational Navigational Charts published by the Defense Mapping Agency (map sheets ONC F-10, F-11, and E-10; figs. 1, 2, 3, 4). These maps are intended to assist aviation and other users in the identification of restless Kurile volcanoes. A regional map is followed by three subsections of the Kurile volcanic arc (North, Central, South). Volcanoes and selected primary geographic features are labeled. All maps contain schematic versions of the principal air routes and selected air navigational fixes in this region.
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These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model.\r\n\r\nComputing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process.\r\n\r\nThe next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.","largerWorkType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"largerWorkTitle":"Appendix N in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","doi":"10.3133/ofr20071437N","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center","usgsCitation":"Field, E.H., and Gupta, V., 2008, Conditional, time-dependent probabilities for segmented Type-A faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2 (Version 1.0): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437, 29 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071437N.","productDescription":"29 p.","costCenters":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":195285,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/usgs_thumb.jpg"},{"id":11149,"rank":100,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/n/","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}}],"edition":"Version 1.0","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a5ee4b07f02db633ecb","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Field, Edward H. 0000-0001-8172-7882 field@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8172-7882","contributorId":52242,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Field","given":"Edward","email":"field@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":294417,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Gupta, Vipin","contributorId":26389,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gupta","given":"Vipin","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":294416,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":81126,"text":"ofr20071437M - 2008 - Empirical estimation of regional time variation in seismicity rates","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2019-07-17T16:49:27","indexId":"ofr20071437M","displayToPublicDate":"2008-04-22T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2008","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":330,"text":"Open-File Report","code":"OFR","onlineIssn":"2331-1258","printIssn":"0196-1497","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2007-1437","chapter":"M","title":"Empirical estimation of regional time variation in seismicity rates","docAbstract":"No abstract available.
","largerWorkType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"largerWorkTitle":"Appendix M in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20071437M","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center","usgsCitation":"Felzer, K., 2008, Empirical estimation of regional time variation in seismicity rates (Version 1.0): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437, ii, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071437M.","productDescription":"ii, 19 p.","costCenters":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":190689,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/usgs_thumb.jpg"},{"id":11148,"rank":100,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/m/","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}}],"edition":"Version 1.0","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a19e4b07f02db60570f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Felzer, Karen R.","contributorId":40680,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Felzer","given":"Karen R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":294415,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":81124,"text":"ofr20071437K - 2008 - A-priori rupture models for Northern California Type-A faults","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2019-07-17T16:13:29","indexId":"ofr20071437K","displayToPublicDate":"2008-04-22T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2008","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":330,"text":"Open-File Report","code":"OFR","onlineIssn":"2331-1258","printIssn":"0196-1497","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2007-1437","chapter":"K","title":"A-priori rupture models for Northern California Type-A faults","docAbstract":"This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, “a-priori” models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide. As a result, the modified segmented models discussed here only concern the San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults.
","largerWorkType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"largerWorkTitle":"Appendix K in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20071437K","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center","usgsCitation":"Wills, C.J., Weldon, R.J., and Field, E.H., 2008, A-priori rupture models for Northern California Type-A faults (Version 1.0): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437, iii, 7 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071437K.","productDescription":"iii, 7 p.","costCenters":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":195551,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/usgs_thumb.jpg"},{"id":11146,"rank":100,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/k/","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}}],"edition":"Version 1.0","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4b15e4b07f02db6a4a82","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wills, Chris J.","contributorId":97576,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wills","given":"Chris","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":294412,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Weldon, Ray J. II","contributorId":47859,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Weldon","given":"Ray","suffix":"II","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":294410,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Field, Edward H. 0000-0001-8172-7882 field@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8172-7882","contributorId":52242,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Field","given":"Edward","email":"field@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":294411,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}