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The coasts of the U.S. are home to many large urban centers and important infrastructure such seaports, airports, transportation routes, oil import and refining facilities, power plants, and military bases. All are vulnerable to varying degrees to impacts of global warming such as sea-level rise, storms, and flooding. High Confidence.
Physical observations collected over the past several decades from the land, coasts, oceans, and the atmosphere, as well as environmental indicators, show that warming and some related environmental changes are occurring globally at rates greater than can be expected due to natural processes. These climate-related changes are highly varied, but some are likely due in large part to anthropogenically increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and altered land surface properties. High Confidence.
Findings from many independent scientific studies conclude that these changes are consistent with global warming. The primary changes observed are rising sea level and average global air, land, and ocean temperatures; heightening temperature and precipitation extremes in some regions; and increasing levels of oceans acidification and rates of glacier and ice sheet melt. High Confidence.
Most coastal landforms, such as barrier islands, deltas, bays, estuaries, wetlands, coral reefs, are highly dynamic and sensitive to even small changes in physical
forces and feedbacks such as warming, storms, ocean circulation, waves and currents, flooding, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. High Confidence.
The effects of sea-level rise on coasts vary considerably from region-to-region and over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Land subsidence in certain locations causes relative sea-level rise to exceed global mean sea-level rise. Land uplift such as that found in Alaska and the Northwestern Pacific coast can reduce effects of global mean rise. The effects will be greatest and most immediate on low-relief, low-elevation parts of the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico, mid-Atlantic states, northern Alaska, Hawaii, and island territories and especially on coasts containing deltas, coastal plains, tidal wetlands, bays, estuaries, and coral reefs. Beaches and wetlands on steep cliff coasts and shores backed with seawalls may be unable to move landward or maintain their landform with sea-level rise. Many areas of the coast are especially vulnerable because of the often detrimental effects of development on natural processes. High Confidence.
The gradual inundation from recent sea-level rise is evident in many regions such as the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana where high tides regularly flood roads and areas that were previously dry, and in stands of “ghost forests,” in which trees are killed by intrusion of brackish water. High Confidence.
Sea level change and storms are dominant driving forces of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms. Increasingly, sea-level rise will become a hazard for coastal regions because of continued global mean sea-level rise, including possibly accelerated rates of rise that increase risk to coastal regions. As the global climate continues to warm and ice sheets melt, coasts will become more dynamic and coastal cities and low-lying areas will be increasingly exposed to erosion, inundation, and flooding. High Confidence.
No coordinated, interagency process exists in the U.S. for identifying agreed upon global mean sea-level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, or management, even though this is a critical first step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. High Confidence.
Global sea level rose at a rate of 1.7 millimeters/year during the 20th century. The rate has increased to over 3 millimeters/year in the past 20 years and scientific studies suggest high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise 0.2 to 2 meters by the end of this century. Some regions such as Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay will experience greater relative rise due to factors such as land subsidence, gravitational redistribution of ice-sheet meltwater, ocean circulation changes, and regional ocean thermostatic effects. Other regions undergoing land uplift, such as Alaska, will experience lesser sea-level rise. High Confidence.
Variability in the location and time-of-year of storm genesis can influence landfalling storm characteristics, and even small changes can lead to large changes in landfalling location and impact. Although scientists have only low confidence in the sign of projected changes to the coast of storm-related hazards that depend on a combination of factors such as frequency, track, intensity, and storm size, any sea-level rise is virtually certain to exacerbate storm-related hazards. High Confidence.
Although sea-level rise and climate change have occurred in the past, the increasing human presence in the coastal zone will make the impacts different
for the future. Land use and other human activities often inhibit the natural response of physical processes and adaptation by plants and animals. In some
areas, erosion and wetland loss are common because sediment budgets have been reduced, while, in other regions, excess sediment is in-filling harbors, channels, and bays. High Confidence.
Observations continue to indicate an ongoing, warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle that will likely result in heavier precipitation events and, combined with sea-level rise and storm surge, an increased flooding severity in some coastal areas, particularly the northeast U.S. Moderate Confidence.
Temperature is primarily driving environmental change in the Alaskan coastal zone. Sea ice and permafrost make northern regions particularly susceptible to temperature change. For example, an increase of two degrees Celsius could basically transform much of Alaska from frozen to unfrozen, with extensive implications. Portions of the north and west coast of Alaska are seeing dramatic increases in the rate of coastal erosion and flooding due to sea ice loss and permafrost melting. As a consequence, several coastal communities are planning to relocate to safer locations. Relocation is a difficult decision that is likely to become more common in the future for many coastal regions. High Confidence.
Methane is a primary greenhouse gas. Large reserves of methane are bound-up in Alaska’s frozen permafrost. These are susceptible to disturbance and methane
release if the Arctic continues to warm. The additional methane released may result in even greater greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. High Confidence.
This chapter is the tenth in a series of 11 book-length chapters, collectively referred to as “this volume,” in the series U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386, Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World. In the other 10 chapters, each of which concerns a specific glacierized region of Earth, the authors used remotely sensed images, primarily from the Landsat 1, 2, and 3 series of spacecraft, in order to analyze that glacierized region and to monitor changes in its glaciers. Landsat images, acquired primarily during the period 1972 through 1981, were used by an international team of glaciologists and other scientists to study the various glacierized regions and (or) to discuss related glaciological topics. In each glacierized region, the present distribution of glaciers within its geographic area is compared, wherever possible, with historical information about their past areal extent. The atlas provides an accurate regional inventory of the areal extent of glacier ice on our planet during the 1970s as part of an expanding international scientific effort to measure global environmental change on the Earth’s surface. However, this chapter differs from the other 10 in its discussion of observed changes in all four elements of the Earth’s cryosphere (glaciers, snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost) in the context of documented changes in all components of the Earth System. Human impact on the planet at the beginning of the 21st century is pervasive. The focus of Chapter A is on changes in the cryosphere and the importance of long-term monitoring by a variety of sensors carried on Earth-orbiting satellites or by a ground-based network of observatories in the case of permafrost. The chapter consists of five parts. The first part provides an introduction to the Earth System, including the interrelationships of the geosphere (cryosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and atmosphere), the biosphere, climate processes, biogeochemical cycles, and the critically important hydrologic cycle, in which glacier ice is the second largest reservoir of water after the oceans. The second part assesses the state of glaciers in all of the glacierized regions of the planet, primarily as drawn in the other 10 chapters. It includes sections on ice cores and the climate record they contain, volumetric changes in glaciers, harnessing spaceborne sensors to measure changes in glaciers, and related topics. The third part summarizes trends in global snow cover. The fourth part summarizes long-term changes in area and thickness of floating ice, including polar sea ice and freshwater (lake and river) ice. The fifth part assesses the loss of permafrost and changes in periglacial environments at high latitudes and high altitudes.
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The Bureau of Reclamation has the responsibility for management of this system, in coordination with the seven basin States, within a complex framework of law, regulations, compact, treaty, and policies often referred to collectively as the “Law of the River.” Lake Mead is a critical component of the overall Colorado River management, providing the capacity to store almost 2 years of the average runoff of the river.","largerWorkType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"largerWorkTitle":"A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave (CIR 1381)","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/cir13813","collaboration":"This report is Chapter 3 in A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave. 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Lake Mead is the largest reservoir by volume in the nation and it supplies critical storage of water supplies for more than 25 million people in three Western States (California, Arizona, and Nevada). Storage within Lake Mead supplies drinking water and the hydropower to provide electricity for major cities including Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Tucson, and San Diego, and irrigation of more than 2.5 million acres of croplands. Lake Mead is arguably the most important reservoir in the nation because of its size and the services it delivers to the Western United States. This Circular includes seven chapters. Chapter 1 provides a short summary of the overall findings and management implications for Lakes Mead and Mohave that can be used to guide the reader through the rest of the Circular. Chapter 2 introduces the environmental setting and characteristics of Lakes Mead and Mohave and provides a brief management context of the lakes within the Colorado River system as well as overviews of the geological bedrock and sediment accumulations of the lakes. Chapter 3 contains summaries of the operational and hydrologic characteristics of Lakes Mead and Mohave. Chapter 4 provides information on water quality, including discussion on the monitoring of contaminants and sediments within the reservoirs. Chapter 5 describes aquatic biota and wildlife, including food-web dynamics, plankton, invertebrates, fish, aquatic birds, and aquatic vegetation. Chapter 6 outlines threats and stressors to the health of Lake Mead aquatic ecosystems that include a range of environmental contaminants, invasive species, and climate change. Chapter 7 provides a more detailed summary of overall findings that are presented in Chapter 1; and it contains a more detailed discussion on associated management implications, additional research, and monitoring needs.","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/cir1381","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Nevada Department of Wildlife, Southern Nevada Water Authority, University of Nevada, Reno, and University of Nevada, Las Vegas","usgsCitation":"Rosen, M.R., Turner, K., Goodbred, S.L., and Miller, J.M., 2012, A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1381, vi, 162 p.; 3 Figures, https://doi.org/10.3133/cir1381.","productDescription":"vi, 162 p.; 3 Figures","startPage":"i","endPage":"162","numberOfPages":"172","additionalOnlineFiles":"Y","costCenters":[{"id":465,"text":"Nevada Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":266705,"type":{"id":14,"text":"Image"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1381/pdf/circ1381_fig02-03.pdf"},{"id":266703,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1381/"},{"id":266704,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1381/pdf/circ1381.pdf"},{"id":266706,"type":{"id":14,"text":"Image"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1381/pdf/circ1381_fig02-04.pdf"},{"id":266707,"type":{"id":14,"text":"Image"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1381/pdf/circ1381_fig02-06.pdf"},{"id":266708,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/cir_1381.jpg"}],"otherGeospatial":"Lake Mead National Recreation Area","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -114.1448,36.0397 ], [ -114.1448,36.2538 ], [ -113.9941,36.2538 ], [ -113.9941,36.0397 ], [ -114.1448,36.0397 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5108ef5fe4b0d965cd9f22a8","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Rosen, Michael R. 0000-0003-3991-0522 mrosen@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3991-0522","contributorId":495,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rosen","given":"Michael","email":"mrosen@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":472658,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Turner, Kent","contributorId":11486,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Turner","given":"Kent","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472660,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Goodbred, Steven L. sgoodbred@usgs.gov","contributorId":497,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Goodbred","given":"Steven","email":"sgoodbred@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":true,"id":472659,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Miller, Jennell M.","contributorId":104365,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Miller","given":"Jennell","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472661,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70042678,"text":"ofr20121253 - 2012 - Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Saluda, Congaree, and Edisto River basins through March 2009","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2016-12-08T16:33:28","indexId":"ofr20121253","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-17T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":330,"text":"Open-File Report","code":"OFR","onlineIssn":"2331-1258","printIssn":"0196-1497","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2012-1253","title":"Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Saluda, Congaree, and Edisto River basins through March 2009","docAbstract":"Part of the mission of the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control and the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources is to protect and preserve South Carolina's water resources. Doing so requires an ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina. A particular need is information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams, which is especially important for effectively managing the State's water resources during critical flow periods, such as during periods of severe drought like South Carolina has experienced in the last decade or so. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, initiated a study in 2008 to update low-flow statistics at continuous-record streamgaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in South Carolina. This report presents the low-flow statistics for 25 selected streamgaging stations in the Saluda, Congaree, and Edisto River basins in South Carolina, and includes flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-,75-, 90-, and 95-percent exceedances and the annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day average flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, depending on the length of record available at the streamgaging station. The low-flow statistics were computed from records available through March 31, 2009. Of the 25 streamgaging stations for which recurrence interval computations were made, 20 were compared to low-flow statistics that were published in previous U.S. Geological Survey reports. A comparison of the low-flow statistics for the annual minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 10-year recurrence interval (7Q10) from this study with the most recently published values indicates that 18 of the 20 streamgaging stations have values lower than the previous published values. The low-flow statistics are influenced by length of record, hydrologic regime under which the record was collected, analytical techniques used, and other changes, such as urbanization, diversions, droughts, and so on, that may have occurred in the basin.","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20121253","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control","usgsCitation":"Feaster, T., and Guimaraes, W.B., 2012, Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Saluda, Congaree, and Edisto River basins through March 2009: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012-1253, vi, 53 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121253.","productDescription":"vi, 53 p.","numberOfPages":"64","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","costCenters":[{"id":13634,"text":"South Atlantic Water Science 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Carolina\",\"nation\":\"USA \"}}]}","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50f91d70e4b0727905955f20","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Feaster, Toby D. 0000-0002-5626-5011 tfeaster@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5626-5011","contributorId":1109,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Feaster","given":"Toby D.","email":"tfeaster@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":559,"text":"South Carolina Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":472038,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Guimaraes, Wladmir B. wbguimar@usgs.gov","contributorId":3818,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Guimaraes","given":"Wladmir","email":"wbguimar@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":559,"text":"South Carolina Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":472039,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70042411,"text":"ds734 - 2012 - Quality of surface water in Missouri, water year 2011","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2016-08-10T11:14:59","indexId":"ds734","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":310,"text":"Data Series","code":"DS","onlineIssn":"2327-638X","printIssn":"2327-0271","active":false,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"734","title":"Quality of surface water in Missouri, water year 2011","docAbstract":"The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, designed and operates a series of monitoring stations on streams throughout Missouri known as the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network. During the 2011 water year (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011), data were collected at 75 stations—72 Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network stations, 2 U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network stations, and 1 spring sampled in cooperation with the U.S. Forest Service. Dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, water temperature, suspended solids, suspended sediment, fecal coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli bacteria, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, dissolved and total recoverable lead and zinc, and select pesticide compound summaries are presented for 72 of these stations. The stations primarily have been classified into groups corresponding to the physiography of the State, primary land use, or unique station types. In addition, a summary of hydrologic conditions in the State including peak discharges, monthly mean discharges, and 7-day low flow is presented.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ds734","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources","usgsCitation":"Barr, M.N., 2012, Quality of surface water in Missouri, water year 2011: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 734, vi, 22 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ds734.","productDescription":"vi, 22 p.","numberOfPages":"32","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","temporalStart":"2010-10-01","temporalEnd":"2011-09-30","costCenters":[{"id":396,"text":"Missouri Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":265365,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/ds_734.gif"},{"id":265363,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/734/"},{"id":265364,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/734/ds734.pdf"}],"projection":"Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 15","datum":"North American Datum of 1983","country":"United States","state":"Missouri","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -95.8,36.0 ], [ -95.8,40.6 ], [ -89.1,40.6 ], [ -89.1,36.0 ], [ -95.8,36.0 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50ebee6ee4b07f1501afcfc0","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Barr, Miya N. 0000-0002-9961-9190 mnbarr@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9961-9190","contributorId":3686,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barr","given":"Miya","email":"mnbarr@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"N.","affiliations":[{"id":396,"text":"Missouri Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":36532,"text":"Central Midwest Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471488,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70042374,"text":"sir20125268 - 2012 - Hydrologic and sediment data collected from selected basins at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation, Missouri--2010-11","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-01-06T13:53:14","indexId":"sir20125268","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-06T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":334,"text":"Scientific Investigations Report","code":"SIR","onlineIssn":"2328-0328","printIssn":"2328-031X","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2012-5268","title":"Hydrologic and sediment data collected from selected basins at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation, Missouri--2010-11","docAbstract":"Commercial and residential development within a basin often increases the amount of impervious area, which changes the natural hydrologic response to storm events by increasing runoff. Land development and disturbance combined with increased runoff from impervious areas potentially can increase sediment transport. At the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation in Missouri, there has been an increase in population and construction activities in the recent past, which has initiated an assessment of the hydrology in selected basins. From April 2010 to December 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Maneuver Support Center at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation, collected hydrologic and suspended-sediment concentration data in six basins at Fort Leonard Wood. Storm-sediment concentration, load, and yield varied from basin to basin and from storm to storm. In general, storm-sediment yield, in pounds per square mile per minute, was greatest from Ballard Hollow tributary (06928410) and Dry Creek (06930250), and monthly storm-sediment yield, in tons per square mile, estimates were largest in Ballard Hollow tributary (06928410), East Gate Hollow tributary (06930058), and Dry Creek (06930250). Sediment samples, collected at nine sites, primarily were collected using automatic samplers and augmented with equal-width-increment cross-sectional samples and manually collected samples when necessary. Storm-sediment load and yield were computed from discharge and suspended-sediment concentration data. Monthly storm-sediment yields also were estimated from the total storm discharge and the mean suspended-sediment concentration at each given site.","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/sir20125268","isbn":"978-1-4113-3531-8","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with U.S. Army Maneuver Support Center at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation","usgsCitation":"Richards, J.M., Rydlund, P.H., and Barr, M.N., 2012, Hydrologic and sediment data collected from selected basins at the Fort Leonard Wood Military Reservation, Missouri--2010-11: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5268, vi, 23 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20125268.","productDescription":"vi, 23 p.","numberOfPages":"36","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","temporalStart":"2010-04-01","temporalEnd":"2011-12-31","ipdsId":"IP-039458","costCenters":[{"id":396,"text":"Missouri Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":265315,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/sir_2012_5268.gif"},{"id":265313,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5268/"},{"id":265314,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5268/sir12-5268.pdf"}],"projection":"Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 15","datum":"North American Datum of 1983","country":"United States","state":"Missouri","county":"Pulaski","otherGeospatial":"Fort Leonard Wood","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -92.25,37.583333 ], [ -92.25,37.833333 ], [ -92.0,37.833333 ], [ -92.0,37.583333 ], [ -92.25,37.583333 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50ea9ceee4b02dd6076fad8b","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Richards, Joseph M. 0000-0002-9822-2706 richards@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9822-2706","contributorId":2370,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Richards","given":"Joseph","email":"richards@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":36532,"text":"Central Midwest Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471403,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Rydlund, Paul H. Jr. 0000-0001-9461-9944 prydlund@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9461-9944","contributorId":3840,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rydlund","given":"Paul","suffix":"Jr.","email":"prydlund@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":502,"text":"Office of Surface Water","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":36532,"text":"Central Midwest Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":396,"text":"Missouri Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471405,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Barr, Miya N. 0000-0002-9961-9190 mnbarr@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9961-9190","contributorId":3686,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barr","given":"Miya","email":"mnbarr@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"N.","affiliations":[{"id":36532,"text":"Central Midwest Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":396,"text":"Missouri Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471404,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70039016,"text":"70039016 - 2012 - Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2014-02-25T15:49:17","indexId":"70039016","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T14:04:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2032,"text":"International Journal of Climatology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices","docAbstract":"Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"International Journal of Climatology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Royal Meteorological Society","doi":"10.1002/joc.3625","usgsCitation":"Schwartz, M., Ault, T., and Betancourt, J.L., 2012, Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices: International Journal of Climatology, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3625.","productDescription":"6 p.","ipdsId":"IP-039075","costCenters":[{"id":147,"text":"Branch of Regional Research-Water Resources","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":282783,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":282778,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3625"}],"country":"United States","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -124.8,24.5 ], [ -124.8,49.38333 ], [ -66.95,49.38333 ], [ -66.95,24.5 ], [ -124.8,24.5 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-11-16","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"53cd73d8e4b0b290851092da","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Schwartz, Mark D.","contributorId":11092,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schwartz","given":"Mark D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":465435,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Ault, Toby R.","contributorId":48852,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ault","given":"Toby R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":465436,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Betancourt, Julio L. 0000-0002-7165-0743 jlbetanc@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-0743","contributorId":3376,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Betancourt","given":"Julio","email":"jlbetanc@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":436,"text":"National Research Program - Eastern Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":554,"text":"Science and Decisions Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":465434,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70046806,"text":"70046806 - 2012 - A remote-sensing, GIS-based approach to identify, characterize, and model spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon in a sub-arctic, glacially fed river","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-09T11:25:25","indexId":"70046806","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T11:15:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3624,"text":"Transactions of the American Fisheries Society","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A remote-sensing, GIS-based approach to identify, characterize, and model spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon in a sub-arctic, glacially fed river","docAbstract":"At northern limits of a species’ distribution, fish habitat requirements are often linked to thermal preferences, and the presence of overwintering habitat. However, logistical challenges and hydrologic processes typical of glacial systems could compromize the identification of these habitats, particularly in large river environments. Our goal was to identify and characterize spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and model habitat selection from spatial distributions of tagged individuals in the Tanana River, Alaska using an approach that combined ground surveys with remote sensing. Models included braiding, sinuosity, ice-free water surface area (indicating groundwater influence), and persistent ice-free water (i.e., consistent presence of ice-free water for a 12-year period according to satellite imagery). Candidate models containing persistent ice-free water were selected as most likely, highlighting the utility of remote sensing for monitoring and identifying salmon habitat in remote areas. A combination of ground and remote surveys revealed spatial and temporal thermal characteristics of these habitats that could have strong biological implications. Persistent ice-free sites identified using synthetic aperture radar appear to serve as core areas for spawning fall chum salmon, and the importance of stability through time suggests a legacy of successful reproductive effort for this homing species. These features would not be captured with a one-visit traditional survey but rather required remote-sensing monitoring of the sites through time.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Transactions of the American Fisheries Society","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Taylor & Francis","doi":"10.1080/00028487.2012.692348","usgsCitation":"Wirth, L., Rosenberger, A., Prakash, A., Gens, R., Margraf, F.J., and Hamazaki, T., 2012, A remote-sensing, GIS-based approach to identify, characterize, and model spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon in a sub-arctic, glacially fed river: Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, v. 141, no. 5, p. 1349-1363, https://doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2012.692348.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"1349","endPage":"1363","ipdsId":"IP-039186","costCenters":[{"id":108,"text":"Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":274752,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":274749,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2012.692348"}],"volume":"141","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-08-30","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51dd30e4e4b0f72b44719c3d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wirth, Lisa","contributorId":24671,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wirth","given":"Lisa","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480306,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Rosenberger, Amanda","contributorId":45609,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rosenberger","given":"Amanda","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480309,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Prakash, Anupma","contributorId":41101,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Prakash","given":"Anupma","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480307,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Gens, Rudiger","contributorId":54490,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gens","given":"Rudiger","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480310,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Margraf, F. Joseph jmargraf@usgs.gov","contributorId":257,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Margraf","given":"F.","email":"jmargraf@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"Joseph","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":480305,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Hamazaki, Toshihide","contributorId":41723,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hamazaki","given":"Toshihide","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480308,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70048115,"text":"70048115 - 2012 - Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-05-23T16:29:45","indexId":"70048115","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T09:24:42","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty","docAbstract":"Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"9th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics 2012 Proceedings","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"language":"English","usgsCitation":"Wildhaber, M.L., Wikle, C.K., Anderson, C.J., Franz, K.J., Moran, E.H., and Dey, R., 2012, Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty, in 9th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics 2012 Proceedings, 8 p.","productDescription":"8 p.","numberOfPages":"8","ipdsId":"IP-035667","costCenters":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":287648,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Missouri River","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -180.0,-90.0 ], [ -180.0,90.0 ], [ 180.0,90.0 ], [ 180.0,-90.0 ], [ -180.0,-90.0 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5387056ee4b0aa26cd7b53d1","contributors":{"editors":[{"text":"Mader, Helmut","contributorId":111577,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mader","given":"Helmut","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":509597,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Kraml, Julia","contributorId":112880,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kraml","given":"Julia","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":509598,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":2}],"authors":[{"text":"Wildhaber, Mark L. 0000-0002-6538-9083 mwildhaber@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6538-9083","contributorId":1386,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wildhaber","given":"Mark","email":"mwildhaber@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":483779,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wikle, Christopher K.","contributorId":55680,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wikle","given":"Christopher","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483783,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Anderson, Christopher J.","contributorId":11516,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Anderson","given":"Christopher","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483781,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Franz, Kristie J.","contributorId":36061,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Franz","given":"Kristie","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483782,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Moran, Edward H. emoran@usgs.gov","contributorId":5445,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Moran","given":"Edward","email":"emoran@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":483780,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Dey, Rima","contributorId":81210,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dey","given":"Rima","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483784,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70042844,"text":"70042844 - 2012 - Hydromechanical effects of continental glaciation on groundwater systems","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-02-26T11:59:47","indexId":"70042844","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1765,"text":"Geofluids","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Hydromechanical effects of continental glaciation on groundwater systems","docAbstract":"Hydromechanical effects of continental ice sheets may involve considerably more than the widely recognized direct compression of overridden terrains by ice load. Lithospheric flexure, which lags ice advance and retreat, appears capable of causing comparable or greater stress changes. Together, direct and flexural loading may increase fluid pressures by tens of MPa in geologic units unable to drain. If so, fluid pressures in low-permeability formations subject to glaciation may have increased and decreased repeatedly during cycles of Pleistocene glaciation and can again in the future. Being asynchronous and normally oriented, direct and flexural loading presumably cause normal and shear stresses to evolve in a complex fashion through much or all of a glacial cycle. Simulations of fractured rock predict permeability might vary by two to three orders of magnitude under similar stress changes as fractures at different orientations are subjected to changing normal and shear stresses and some become critically stressed. Uncertainties surrounding these processes and their interactions, and the confounding influences of surface hydrologic changes, make it challenging to delineate their effects on groundwater flow and pressure regimes with any specificity. To date, evidence for hydromechanical changes caused by the last glaciation is sparse and inconclusive, comprising a few pressure anomalies attributed to the removal of direct ice load. This may change as more data are gathered, and understanding of relevant processes is refined.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Geofluids","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","publisherLocation":"Hoboken, NJ","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-8123.2011.00347.x","usgsCitation":"Neuzil, C., 2012, Hydromechanical effects of continental glaciation on groundwater systems: Geofluids, v. 12, no. 1, p. 22-37, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-8123.2011.00347.x.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"22","endPage":"37","ipdsId":"IP-027857","costCenters":[{"id":146,"text":"Branch of Regional Research-Eastern Region","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":268370,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":268369,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-8123.2011.00347.x"}],"volume":"12","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2011-09-25","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"53cd61cfe4b0b290850fdbfc","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Neuzil, C. E. 0000-0003-2022-4055","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2022-4055","contributorId":81078,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Neuzil","given":"C. E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472375,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70045588,"text":"70045588 - 2012 - Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-01-05T18:01:12.044462","indexId":"70045588","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3331,"text":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study","docAbstract":"We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid environments characterized by high topo-climatic variability, land and water managers need indicators of local watershed hydrology response to complement regional temperature and precipitation estimates. Our results also suggest that temperature forcing may generate greater drought stress affecting soils and stream flows than can be estimated by variability in precipitation alone.","language":"English","publisher":"University of California","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2012v10iss4art2","usgsCitation":"Micheli, E., Flint, L., Flint, A., Weiss, S., and Kennedy, M., 2012, Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 10, no. 4, 31 p., https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2012v10iss4art2.","productDescription":"31 p.","ipdsId":"IP-028558","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":552,"text":"San Francisco Bay-Delta","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474239,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2012v10iss4art2","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":381884,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"San Francisco Bay","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -123.0,37.0 ], [ -123.0,38.5 ], [ -121.5,38.5 ], [ -121.5,37.0 ], [ -123.0,37.0 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"10","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-12-05","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51838ae6e4b0a21483941a8e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Micheli, Elisabeth","contributorId":105615,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Micheli","given":"Elisabeth","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477892,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Flint, Lorraine 0000-0002-7868-441X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7868-441X","contributorId":97753,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Flint","given":"Lorraine","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477891,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Flint, Alan","contributorId":58503,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Flint","given":"Alan","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477889,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Weiss, Stuart","contributorId":7590,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Weiss","given":"Stuart","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477888,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Kennedy, Morgan","contributorId":77446,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kennedy","given":"Morgan","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477890,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70043864,"text":"70043864 - 2012 - A national geographic framework for guiding conservation on a landscape scale","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-02-26T13:22:11","indexId":"70043864","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2287,"text":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A national geographic framework for guiding conservation on a landscape scale","docAbstract":"The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with the global conservation community, has recognized that the conservation challenges of the 21st century far exceed the responsibilities and footprint of any individual agency or program. The ecological effects of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors do not recognize geopolitical boundaries and, as such, demand a national geographic framework to provide structure for cross-jurisdictional and landscape-scale conservation strategies. In 2009, a new map of ecologically based conservation regions in which to organize capacity and implement strategic habitat conservation was developed using rapid prototyping and expert elicitation by an interagency team of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and U.S. Geological Survey scientists and conservation professionals. Incorporating Bird Conservation Regions, Freshwater Ecoregions, and U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic unit codes, the new geographic framework provides a spatial template for building conservation capacity and focusing biological planning and conservation design efforts. The Department of Interior's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives are being organized in these new conservation regions as multi-stakeholder collaborations for improved conservation science and management.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service","publisherLocation":"Arlington, VA","doi":"10.3996/052011-JFWM-030","usgsCitation":"Millard, M.J., Czarnecki, C.A., Morton, J.M., Brandt, L., Briggs, J., Shipley, F.S., Sayre, R.G., Sponholtz, P.J., Perkins, D., Simpkins, D.G., and Taylor, J., 2012, A national geographic framework for guiding conservation on a landscape scale: Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, v. 3, no. 1, p. 175-183, https://doi.org/10.3996/052011-JFWM-030.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"175","endPage":"183","ipdsId":"IP-029673","costCenters":[{"id":529,"text":"Pacific Southwest Regional Executive Office","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":268390,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":268389,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3996/052011-JFWM-030"}],"country":"United States","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ 172.5,18.9 ], [ 172.5,71.4 ], [ -66.9,71.4 ], [ -66.9,18.9 ], [ 172.5,18.9 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"3","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"53cd4a22e4b0b290850ef964","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Millard, Michael J.","contributorId":23411,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Millard","given":"Michael","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":6987,"text":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Sevice","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":474333,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Czarnecki, Craig A.","contributorId":73086,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Czarnecki","given":"Craig","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474336,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Morton, John M.","contributorId":17097,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Morton","given":"John","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474331,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Brandt, Laura A.","contributorId":18608,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Brandt","given":"Laura A.","affiliations":[{"id":6987,"text":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Sevice","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":474332,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Briggs, Jennifer S.","contributorId":101167,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Briggs","given":"Jennifer S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474337,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Shipley, Frank S. frank_shipley@usgs.gov","contributorId":3804,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Shipley","given":"Frank","email":"frank_shipley@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":true,"id":474329,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Sayre, Roger G. rsayre@usgs.gov","contributorId":2882,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sayre","given":"Roger","email":"rsayre@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474328,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Sponholtz, Pamela J.","contributorId":51176,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sponholtz","given":"Pamela","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474334,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Perkins, David","contributorId":102357,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Perkins","given":"David","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474338,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Simpkins, Darin G.","contributorId":10892,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Simpkins","given":"Darin","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474330,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Taylor, Janith","contributorId":66832,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Taylor","given":"Janith","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474335,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11}]}} ,{"id":70043908,"text":"70043908 - 2012 - Drought drove forest decline and dune building in eastern upper Michigan, USA, as the upper Great Lakes became closed basins","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-05-02T15:12:05","indexId":"70043908","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1796,"text":"Geology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Drought drove forest decline and dune building in eastern upper Michigan, USA, as the upper Great Lakes became closed basins","docAbstract":"Current models of landscape response to Holocene climate change in midcontinent North America largely reconcile Earth orbital and atmospheric climate forcing with pollen-based forest histories on the east and eolian chronologies in Great Plains grasslands on the west. However, thousands of sand dunes spread across 12,000 km2 in eastern upper Michigan (EUM), more than 500 km east of the present forest-prairie ecotone, present a challenge to such models. We use 65 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages on quartz sand deposited in silt caps (n = 8) and dunes (n = 57) to document eolian activity in EUM. Dune building was widespread ca. 10–8 ka, indicating a sharp, sustained decline in forest cover during that period. This decline was roughly coincident with hydrologic closure of the upper Great Lakes, but temporally inconsistent with most pollen-based models that imply canopy closure throughout the Holocene. Early Holocene forest openings are rarely recognized in pollen sums from EUM because faint signatures of non-arboreal pollen are largely obscured by abundant and highly mobile pine pollen. Early Holocene spikes in nonarboreal pollen are recorded in cores from small ponds, but suggest only a modest extent of forest openings. OSL dating of dune emplacement provides a direct, spatially explicit archive of greatly diminished forest cover during a very dry climate in eastern midcontinent North America ca. 10–8 ka.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Geology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"GSA","doi":"10.1130/G32937.1","usgsCitation":"Loope, W.L., Loope, H.M., Goble, R.J., Fisher, T.G., Lytle, D.E., Legg, R.J., Wysocki, D., Hanson, P.R., and Young, A., 2012, Drought drove forest decline and dune building in eastern upper Michigan, USA, as the upper Great Lakes became closed basins: Geology, v. 40, no. 4, p. 315-318, https://doi.org/10.1130/G32937.1.","productDescription":"4 p.","startPage":"315","endPage":"318","ipdsId":"IP-028146","costCenters":[{"id":324,"text":"Great Lakes Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":271774,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":271773,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G32937.1"}],"otherGeospatial":"North America","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ 177.1,5.6 ], [ 177.1,85.4 ], [ -4.0,85.4 ], [ -4.0,5.6 ], [ 177.1,5.6 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"40","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-02-28","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51838ae8e4b0a21483941a9d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Loope, Walter L. wloope@usgs.gov","contributorId":4616,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Loope","given":"Walter","email":"wloope@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":324,"text":"Great Lakes Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":474439,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Loope, Henry M.","contributorId":79381,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Loope","given":"Henry","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474446,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Goble, Ronald J.","contributorId":61319,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Goble","given":"Ronald","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474444,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Fisher, Timothy G.","contributorId":45659,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fisher","given":"Timothy","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474443,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Lytle, David E. dlytle@usgs.gov","contributorId":343,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lytle","given":"David","email":"dlytle@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":true,"id":474438,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Legg, Robert J.","contributorId":30527,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Legg","given":"Robert","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474441,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Wysocki, Douglas A.","contributorId":61320,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wysocki","given":"Douglas A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474445,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Hanson, Paul R.","contributorId":35214,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hanson","given":"Paul","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474442,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Young, Aaron R.","contributorId":12353,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Young","given":"Aaron R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474440,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9}]}} ,{"id":70044372,"text":"70044372 - 2012 - Hillslope hydrology and stability","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-03-08T15:55:28","indexId":"70044372","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"title":"Hillslope hydrology and stability","docAbstract":"Landslides are caused by a failure of the mechanical balance within hillslopes. This balance is governed by two coupled physical processes: hydrological or subsurface flow and stress. The stabilizing strength of hillslope materials depends on effective stress, which is diminished by rainfall. This book presents a cutting-edge quantitative approach to understanding hydro-mechanical processes across variably saturated hillslope environments and to the study and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. Topics covered include historic synthesis of hillslope geomorphology and hydrology, total and effective stress distributions, critical reviews of shear strength of hillslope materials and different bases for stability analysis. Exercises and homework problems are provided for students to engage with the theory in practice. This is an invaluable resource for graduate students and researchers in hydrology, geomorphology, engineering geology, geotechnical engineering and geomechanics and for professionals in the fields of civil and environmental engineering and natural hazard analysis.","language":"English","publisher":"Cambridge University Press","publisherLocation":"Cambridge, U.K.","usgsCitation":"Lu, N., and Godt, J., 2012, Hillslope hydrology and stability, 458 p.","productDescription":"458 p.","ipdsId":"IP-038719","costCenters":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":268907,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":268906,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://www.cambridge.org/us/knowledge/isbn/item6885007/?site_locale=en_US"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5139c4f7e4b09608cc166b28","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Lu, Ning","contributorId":191360,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lu","given":"Ning","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":12620,"text":"U.S. Army Corp. of Engineers","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":475391,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Godt, Jonathan","contributorId":53431,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Godt","given":"Jonathan","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475392,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70044357,"text":"70044357 - 2012 - Physical controls and predictability of stream hyporheic flow evaluated with a multiscale model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-04-09T14:54:58","indexId":"70044357","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3722,"text":"Water Resources Research","onlineIssn":"1944-7973","printIssn":"0043-1397","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Physical controls and predictability of stream hyporheic flow evaluated with a multiscale model","docAbstract":"Improved predictions of hyporheic exchange based on easily measured physical variables are needed to improve assessment of solute transport and reaction processes in watersheds. Here we compare physically based model predictions for an Indiana stream with stream tracer results interpreted using the Transient Storage Model (TSM). We parameterized the physically based, Multiscale Model (MSM) of stream-groundwater interactions with measured stream planform and discharge, stream velocity, streambed hydraulic conductivity and porosity, and topography of the streambed at distinct spatial scales (i.e., ripple, bar, and reach scales). We predicted hyporheic exchange fluxes and hyporheic residence times using the MSM. A Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model was used to convert the MSM output into predictions of in stream solute transport, which we compared with field observations and TSM parameters obtained by fitting solute transport data. MSM simulations indicated that surface-subsurface exchange through smaller topographic features such as ripples was much faster than exchange through larger topographic features such as bars. However, hyporheic exchange varies nonlinearly with groundwater discharge owing to interactions between flows induced at different topographic scales. MSM simulations showed that groundwater discharge significantly decreased both the volume of water entering the subsurface and the time it spent in the subsurface. The MSM also characterized longer timescales of exchange than were observed by the tracer-injection approach. The tracer data, and corresponding TSM fits, were limited by tracer measurement sensitivity and uncertainty in estimates of background tracer concentrations. Our results indicate that rates and patterns of hyporheic exchange are strongly influenced by a continuum of surface-subsurface hydrologic interactions over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales rather than discrete processes.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Water Resources Research","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","publisherLocation":"Hoboken, NJ","doi":"10.1029/2011WR011582","usgsCitation":"Stonedahl, S.H., Harvey, J.W., Detty, J., Aubeneau, A., and Packman, A., 2012, Physical controls and predictability of stream hyporheic flow evaluated with a multiscale model: Water Resources Research, v. 48, no. 10, W10513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011582.","productDescription":"W10513","ipdsId":"IP-040699","costCenters":[{"id":436,"text":"National Research Program - Eastern Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474129,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2011wr011582","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":270711,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011582"},{"id":270712,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"48","issue":"10","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-10-06","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51653871e4b077fa94dae00c","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Stonedahl, Susa H.","contributorId":66145,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stonedahl","given":"Susa","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475365,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Harvey, Judson W. 0000-0002-2654-9873 jwharvey@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2654-9873","contributorId":1796,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Harvey","given":"Judson","email":"jwharvey@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":436,"text":"National Research Program - Eastern Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475361,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Detty, Joel","contributorId":12347,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Detty","given":"Joel","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475362,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Aubeneau, Antoine","contributorId":44057,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Aubeneau","given":"Antoine","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475364,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Packman, Aaron I.","contributorId":15092,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Packman","given":"Aaron I.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475363,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ]}