Upper plates of subduction zones commonly respond to flat slab subduction by structural reactivation, magmatic arc disruption, and foreland basin inversion. However, the role of active strike-slip faults in focusing convergent deformation and magmatism in response to oblique flat slab subduction remains less clear. Here, we present new detrital apatite fission-track (dAFT) ages from 12 modern catchments in the eastern Alaska Range, Alaska, USA, to reveal how the dextral Denali fault system has facilitated bedrock exhumation and topographic growth during ca. 30 Ma-to-present oblique flat slab subduction of the Yakutat oceanic plateau. Additionally, a 940 ka (40Ar/39Ar whole rock) basalt flow is spatially associated with Cenozoic structures, locally reset AFT ages and provides the first evidence for Quaternary volcanism along the southern flank of the eastern Alaska Range. We integrate our new data with other thermochronologic, geochronologic, and regional geologic datasets to show that (1) most high topography regions in southern Alaska have undergone rapid bedrock cooling and exhumation since ca. 30 Ma; (2) elevated terrain and young cooling are spatially associated with long-lived active strike-slip fault systems; (3) topographic growth associated with strike-slip fault deformation led to local inversion of basin systems and drainage reorganization; (4) the onset of oblique oceanic plateau subduction is coeval with a southward shift in arc magmatism from one region of active strike-slip faulting to another above the northeastern edge of the flat slab; and (5) Quaternary volcanism marks the revival of magmatism in the eastern Alaska Range above the geophysically imaged northeastern edge of the flat slab. Our analysis of the post-30 Ma geologic evolution of southern Alaska demonstrates that strike-slip fault systems that were active at the time of slab flattening evolved into transpression zones that focused bedrock cooling, rock exhumation, and topographic growth.
Sea turtle hatchlings face many natural and anthropogenic threats during their short journey to the water after emerging from nests. Reducing hatchling mortality is critical to population recovery of imperiled sea turtle species; however, protecting hatchlings is particularly challenging on beaches degraded by human development and disturbances, including artificial lighting. Managers need practical methods to reduce hatchling mortality without harming their natural behavior or development. To address this need, we describe an approach to reduce mortality of loggerhead hatchlings that relies on prediction of clutch incubation length and knowledge of hatchling emergence patterns. We developed models to predict incubation length utilizing sand temperature and nest depth data from 133 loggerhead nests laid on an urban beach in Northwest Florida from 2013 to 2020. Incubation length was predicted to within 2.2 days using mean sand temperatures measured just outside of the clutch. Predicted accuracy improved to 1.9 days using a 2-parameter model incorporating sand temperature and measured depth to the topmost eggs. Hatchlings emerged almost exclusively at night in a single large group with no evidence of asynchronous emergences. Emergence times were skewed toward the early evening, in contrast to loggerhead nests on the Florida Atlantic coast which tend to hatch near midnight. Using these prediction tools, monitoring efforts could be focused on days and times of expected emergence to enable protection of hatchlings emerging naturally from nests left in situ. The method used here, while not a substitute for recovery of degraded nesting habitat, provides a way to protect hatchlings that avoids disturbing the eggs with instruments or restraining the hatchlings with cages or screens.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.jembe.2021.151647","usgsCitation":"Watson, K.P., and Lamont, M., 2022, Temperature-based modeling of incubation period to protect loggerhead hatchlings on an urban beach in Northwest Florida: Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, v. 546, 151647, 10 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2021.151647.","productDescription":"151647, 10 p.","ipdsId":"IP-127739","costCenters":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":398117,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Florida","county":"Bay County","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -85.528564453125,\n 30.023921574501376\n ],\n [\n -85.8856201171875,\n 30.235340577517942\n ],\n [\n -85.92819213867188,\n 30.22466172703242\n ],\n [\n -85.59860229492188,\n 30.0286775329042\n ],\n [\n -85.54504394531249,\n 30.00013836058068\n ],\n [\n -85.528564453125,\n 30.023921574501376\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"546","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Watson, Kennard P.","contributorId":289668,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Watson","given":"Kennard","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":62225,"text":"Panama City Beach Turtle Watch","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":839570,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Lamont, Margaret 0000-0001-7520-6669","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7520-6669","contributorId":222403,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lamont","given":"Margaret","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":839571,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70225602,"text":"70225602 - 2022 - Ontogeny of eDNA shedding during early development in Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-04-11T16:36:52.660548","indexId":"70225602","displayToPublicDate":"2021-10-24T07:20:50","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":5840,"text":"Environmental DNA","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Ontogeny of eDNA shedding during early development in Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)","docAbstract":"Knowledge of the timing of major life history events in aquatic species is important for informing conservation and resource management planning. Accordingly, surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA) have been performed to determine the efficacy of eDNA for providing information on life history events, primarily focusing on the timing of events associated with spawning, and these studies have proved successful. However, spawning represents only one part of the life history, and therefore, information on eDNA shedding during other life history stages is needed to fill gaps in knowledge. Here, we explored eDNA shedding during early life history (from fertilized eggs until near yolk sac absorption) in Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at three biomasses in a laboratory environment. We found that fertilized eggs shed little eDNA prior to hatching. Hatching coincided with a spike in eDNA, and we observed a significant and positive relationship between eDNA concentration and the number of hatched eggs. The concentration of eDNA shed by larvae after hatching was not consistent across post-hatch sampling days, suggesting developmental and behavioral changes associated with larval ontogeny may affect eDNA shedding rate. These results indicate that eDNA data may be used to identify hatch timing and verify successful reproduction in oviparous aquatic fishes. The application of eDNA to early life history broadens the capacity of eDNA-based methods for assessing population status and trends.
Estimating the detection threshold of a seismic network (the minimum magnitude earthquake that can be reliably located) is a critical part of network design and can drive network maintenance efforts. The ability of a station to detect an earthquake is often estimated by assuming the spectral amplitude for an earthquake of a given size, assuming an attenuation relationship, and comparing the predicted amplitude with the average station background noise level. This approach has significant uncertainty because of unknown regional attenuation and complications in computing small event power spectra, and it fails to account for the specific capabilities of the automatic seismic phase picker used in monitoring. We develop a data‐driven approach to determine network detection thresholds using a multiband phase picking algorithm that is currently in use at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. We apply this picking algorithm to cataloged earthquakes to determine an empirical relationship of the observability of earthquakes as a function of magnitude and distance. Using this relationship, we produce maps of detection threshold using station spatial configuration and station noise levels. We show that quiet, well‐sited stations significantly increase the detection capabilities of a network compared with a network composed of many noisy stations. Because our method is data driven, it has two distinct advantages: (1) it is less dependent on theoretical assumptions of source spectra and models of regional attenuation, and (2) it can easily be applied to any seismic network. This tool allows for an objective approach to the management of stations in regional seismic networks.
Worldwide, many productive rivers are dam-regulated and rely on flow management strategies that must balance support of ecological processes with human water use. One component of evaluating this balance is to understand ecological consequences of alternative flow management strategies, which has often been accomplished by coupling population dynamics models with models that relate streamflow to habitat availability and quality. Numerous methods assign habitat availability to locations within a river basin: These include fine-scale field-measured values that are extrapolated to other locations within the basin having similar physical characteristics or equation-driven values created by functions of model-predicted values of physical characteristics. The array of options for creating habitat models is evolving rapidly as high-resolution remote-sensing data becomes more accessible and computational capacity improves. Our objective was to identify trade-offs among approaches that assign habitat relationships to large rivers and to create a decision support tool to supplement choices of extent and granularity. Using a selection of case studies that represent a breadth of scales and diverse trade-offs, we demonstrate the need for a transparent process of data evaluation and assessment to determine the appropriate fit for model scope or context that best supports management needs and recognize sources of uncertainty. The structured approach proposed here aims at improving future model development and refine population dynamics models that inform the management of rivers.
Agent-based models (ABMs) and state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) have proven useful for understanding processes underlying social-ecological systems and evaluating practical questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. ABMs can simulate a variety of agents (autonomous units, such as wildlife or people); agent characteristics, decision-making, adaptive behavior, and mobility; and agent-environment interactions. STSMs are flexible and intuitive stochastic landscape models that can track scenarios and integrate diverse data. Both can be run spatially and track metrics of management success.
Due to the complementarity of these approaches, we sought to couple them through a dynamic linkage and demonstrate the relevance of this advancement for modeling landscape processes and patterns.
We developed analytical techniques and software tools to couple these modeling approaches using NetLogo, R, and the ST-Sim package for SyncroSim. We demonstrated the capabilities and value of this coupled approach through a proof-of-concept case study of bison-vegetation interactions in Badlands National Park.
The coupled ABM-STSM: (1) streamlined handling of model inputs and outputs; (2) allowed representation of processes at multiple temporal scales; (3) minimized assumptions; and (4) generated spatial and temporal patterns that better reflected agent-environment interactions.
These developments constitute a new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks; modelers can now use output from an ABM to dictate landscape changes within an STSM that in turn influence agents. This facilitates experimentation across domains (agent and environment) and creation of more realistic and management-relevant projections, and opens new opportunities for communicating models and linking to other methods.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1007/s10980-021-01282-y","usgsCitation":"Miller, B.W., and Frid, L., 2022, A new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks: Coupled agent-based and state-and-transition simulation models: Landscape Ecology, v. 37, p. 43-58, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01282-y.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"43","endPage":"58","ipdsId":"IP-119604","costCenters":[{"id":40927,"text":"North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":436047,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9R98PPB","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Coupled Agent-Based and State-and-Transition Simulation Model"},{"id":390809,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"37","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-10-17","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Miller, Brian W. 0000-0003-1716-1161","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1716-1161","contributorId":196603,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Miller","given":"Brian","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":36940,"text":"National Climate Adaptation Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":825579,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Frid, Leonardo","contributorId":196604,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Frid","given":"Leonardo","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":825580,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70256761,"text":"70256761 - 2022 - Retention and dimensional changes of evergreen brush piles within a flood control reservoir","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-09-04T16:45:33.982342","indexId":"70256761","displayToPublicDate":"2021-10-15T11:40:21","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2287,"text":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Retention and dimensional changes of evergreen brush piles within a flood control reservoir","docAbstract":"Brush piles (i.e., trees and large woody debris) are often installed in reservoirs to supplement fish habitat. The retention and dimensional change of brush piles after installation is important information that can be used to maximize the effectiveness of this management action. We evaluated the retention and dimensional change of 70 eastern red cedar Juniperus virginiana and bald cypress Taxodium distichum brush piles in an embayment of a drawdown reservoir up to four annual cycles of submergence and exposure. We used satellite imagery to supplement our onsite measurements of retention. We also examined spatial patterns of brush pile retention and dimensional change. Brush piles were lost at 10% per year, and their volume was lost at 14% per year. We compared our rates of brush pile retention and dimensional change with those from a holdout data set of 50 brush piles. Estimates between data sets did not differ statistically. Spatial patterns of retention and dimensional change coincided with morphological features in our study area, suggesting that retention and dimensional change is influenced by variable physical forces (e.g., wave action and flow) at installation locations. Our estimates of brush pile retention and dimensional change can be used to generally sustain desirable brush densities. For example, to maintain a fixed total volume of brush in our study embayment, roughly 23% of the total brush volume installed would need to be replaced annually. Similar research in reservoirs managed for other purposes is needed, as length and cycle of inundation could lead to variable rates of retention and dimensional change. Additionally, advancements into computer-assisted detection and volume estimation could reduce the time and effort needed to monitor brush piles.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service","doi":"10.3996/JFWM-21-033","usgsCitation":"Aldridge, C., Norris, D., Hatcher, H., Coppola, G., Colvin, M., and Miranda, L.E., 2022, Retention and dimensional changes of evergreen brush piles within a flood control reservoir: Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, v. 13, no. 1, p. 223-235, https://doi.org/10.3996/JFWM-21-033.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"223","endPage":"235","ipdsId":"IP-119765","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":449622,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3996/jfwm-21-033","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":433459,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Mississippi","otherGeospatial":"Long Branch Creek embayment of Enid Lake","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -89.84895707764991,\n 34.12639444197403\n ],\n [\n -89.84895707764991,\n 34.10300231952699\n ],\n [\n -89.8179302628156,\n 34.10300231952699\n ],\n [\n -89.8179302628156,\n 34.12639444197403\n ],\n [\n -89.84895707764991,\n 34.12639444197403\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"13","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Aldridge, C.A.","contributorId":275883,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Aldridge","given":"C.A.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":17848,"text":"Mississippi State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908887,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Norris, D.M.","contributorId":341780,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Norris","given":"D.M.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":12717,"text":"Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908888,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Hatcher, H.R.","contributorId":278602,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hatcher","given":"H.R.","affiliations":[{"id":17848,"text":"Mississippi State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908889,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Coppola, G.","contributorId":265335,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Coppola","given":"G.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":17848,"text":"Mississippi State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908890,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Colvin, M.E.","contributorId":341781,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Colvin","given":"M.E.","affiliations":[{"id":17848,"text":"Mississippi State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":908891,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Miranda, Leandro E. 0000-0002-2138-7924 smiranda@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2138-7924","contributorId":531,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Miranda","given":"Leandro","email":"smiranda@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":908892,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70230025,"text":"70230025 - 2022 - Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived using tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-03-25T13:43:11.24047","indexId":"70230025","displayToPublicDate":"2021-10-15T10:55:54","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1837,"text":"Global Change Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived using tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests","docAbstract":"Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously account for the effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth, which has limited the potential to use tree rings to understand forest productivity, its climate sensitivity, and its global change responses. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model non-linear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter (DBH), and year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree’s growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥ 3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually over ≤ 3-month seasonal windows), with both included in 78% of top models, and with non-linear responses prevalent (63% of relationships). Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (44% of cases tested). Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently peaked at intermediate DBH and declined thereafter. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/gcb.15934","usgsCitation":"Anderson-Teixeira, K.J., Herrmann, V., Rollinson, C., Gonzales, B., Gonzalez-Akre, E.B., Pederson, N., Alexander, M.R., Allen, C., Alfaro-Sanchez, R., Awada, T., Baltzer, J.L., Baker, P.J., Birch, J.D., Bunyavejchewin, S., Cherubini, P., Davies, S.J., Dow, C., Helcoski, R., Kaspar, J., Lutz, J.A., Margolis, E.Q., Maxwell, J., McMahon, S.M., Piponiot, C., Russo, S.E., Šamonil, P., Sniderhan, A.E., Tepley, A.J., Vasickova, I., Vlam, M., and Zuidema, P.A., 2022, Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived using tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests: Global Change Biology, v. 28, p. 245-266, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15934.","productDescription":"21 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These surveys often contain spatial–temporal dependencies that can greatly influence conclusions drawn from analyses. Pygmy whitefish (PWF, Prosopium coulterii) populations in Lake Superior were recently assessed as Threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Species in Canada, which motivated a thorough analysis of available data to improve our understanding of its population status. The US Geological Survey conducts annual bottom trawl surveys in Lake Superior that commonly capture PWF. We used these data (1989–2018) to model temporal trends in PWF biomass density and make lake-wide population projections. We used a Bayesian approach, integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), and compared the impact of including different random structures on model fit. Inclusion of spatial structure improved model fit and conclusions differed from models omitting random effects. 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Lee","given":"Adam","email":"","middleInitial":"S","affiliations":[{"id":13677,"text":"Fisheries and Oceans Canada","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":866881,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Vinson, Mark R. 0000-0001-5256-9539 mvinson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-9539","contributorId":3800,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Vinson","given":"Mark","email":"mvinson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":324,"text":"Great Lakes Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":866882,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Koops, Marten A.","contributorId":16715,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Koops","given":"Marten","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":866883,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70229707,"text":"70229707 - 2022 - Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-03-16T15:30:14.386184","indexId":"70229707","displayToPublicDate":"2021-10-08T11:28:59","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1456,"text":"Ecological Indicators","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100","title":"Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100","docAbstract":"Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (<i>Anas fulvigula</i>), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108276","usgsCitation":"Moon, J., Lehnen, S., Metzger, K., Squires, M., Brasher, M., Wilson, B., Conway, W., Haukos, D.A., Davis, B., Rohwer, F., Wehland, E., and Ballard, B., 2022, Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100: Ecological Indicators, v. 132, 108276, 28 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108276.","productDescription":"108276, 28 p.","ipdsId":"IP-132508","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":449655,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108276","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":397158,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Louisiana, 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Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1324,"text":"Conservation Genetics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Genome-wide SNP analysis of three moose subspecies at the southern range limit in the contiguous United States","docAbstract":"Genome-wide evaluations of genetic diversity and population structure are important for informing management and conservation of trailing-edge populations. North American moose (Alces alces) are declining along portions of the southern edge of their range due to disease, species interactions, and marginal habitat, all of which may be exacerbated by climate change. We employed a genotyping by sequencing (GBS) approach in an effort to collect baseline information on the genetic variation of moose inhabiting the species’ southern range periphery in the contiguous United States. We identified 1920 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 155 moose representing three subspecies from five states: A. a. americana (New Hampshire), A. a. andersoni (Minnesota), and A. a. shirasi (Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming). Molecular analyses supported three geographically isolated clusters, congruent with currently recognized subspecies. Additionally, while moderately low genetic diversity was observed, there was little evidence of inbreeding. Results also indicated > 20% shared ancestry proportions between A. a. shirasi samples from northern Montana and A. a. andersoni samples from Minnesota, indicating a putative hybrid zone warranting further investigation. GBS has proven to be a simple and effective method for genome-wide SNP discovery in moose and provides robust data for informing herd management and conservation priorities. With increasing disease, predation, and climate related pressure on range edge moose populations in the United States, the use of SNP data to identify gene flow between subspecies may prove a powerful tool for moose management and recovery, particularly if hybrid moose are more able to adapt.
Rediscovery of living populations of a species that was presumed to be extirpated can generate new narratives for conservation in areas suffering from losses in biodiversity. We used field observations and DNA sequence data to verify the rediscovery of the Critically Endangered scincid lizard Emoia slevini on Dåno′, an islet off the coast of Guam in the southern Mariana Islands, where for > 20 years it had been considered possibly extirpated. Endemic to the Marianas, E. slevini has declined throughout its range and no longer occurs on as many as five islands from which it was historically known, most likely because of interactions with invasive species and loss of native forest. Our results show that individuals from Dåno′, the type locality for E. slevini, are genetically similar but not identical to E. slevini on Sarigan and Alamagan to the north, and that E. slevini is a close evolutionary relative to another congener in the southern Marianas that is currently recognized as Emoia atrocostata but probably represents an undescribed species in this archipelago. We also show that other, more broadly distributed species of Emoia occurring on Dåno′ are distant relatives to E. slevini and the Mariana lineage of E. atrocostata, providing further evidence of the distinctiveness of these taxa. The rediscovery of E. slevini on Dåno′ following rodent eradication and culling of a population of monitor lizards suggests that management of invasive species is key to the recovery of this skink in the Mariana Islands, and that a range eclipse on the larger neighbouring island of Guam best explains why the rediscovery took place at the periphery of the species’ historic range. A Chamorro abstract can be found in the supplementary material.
Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) creates highly productive habitats in coastal areas, providing support for many important species of fish and wildlife. Despite the importance and documented loss of SAV across fresh to marine habitats globally, we lack consistent baseline data on estuarine SAV resources, particularly in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) estuaries. To understand SAV distribution in the NGOM, SAV biomass and species identity were collected at 384 sites inter-annually (June–September; 2013–2015) from Mobile Bay, Alabama, to San Antonio Bay, Texas, USA. Coastwide, SAV distribution and biomass were consistent across years, covering an estimated 87,000 ha, and supporting approximately 16 ± 1% total cover with an average biomass of 24.5 ± 1.9 g m−2. Differences in hydrology (i.e., precipitation, freshwater input, water depth) and exposure (i.e., wave and wind energy) manifested in unique SAV assemblages and biomass distributions across the region (i.e., Coastal Mississippi-Alabama, Mississippi River Coastal Wetlands, Chenier Plain, Texas Mid-Coast) and estuarine gradient (i.e., marsh zones defined as fresh, intermediate, brackish, saline). Descriptive cluster analyses identified indicator SAV species, known as medoid observations that represented combined salinity, turbidity, and depth conditions unique to different region and marsh zone combinations. While the presence of SAV is often used as an indicator of ecological health, identifying a medoid-based SAV indicator species in aquatic habitats can be used to describe estuarine conditions in more detail and develop aquatic habitat zones. Exploration and the use of this type of field data could be developed as a means to track, manage, and define aquatic habitats across regional and estuarine gradients and further develop ecosystem-based assessment and restoration activities. Identifying aquatic zones through a representative medoid associates SAV species with locations defined by both long-term salinity and salinity variability, water depth, and exposure, which is a powerful potential tool for managers and restoration decision-makers.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer Link","doi":"10.1007/s12237-021-00958-7","usgsCitation":"DeMarco, K., Hillmann, E., Nyman, J.A., Couvillion, B., and La Peyre, M., 2022, Defining aquatic habitat zones across northern Gulf of Mexico estuarine gradients through submerged aquatic vegetation species assemblage and biomass data: Estuaries and Coasts, v. 45, p. 148-167, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-021-00958-7.","productDescription":"20 p.","startPage":"148","endPage":"167","ipdsId":"IP-121908","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":500008,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://repository.lsu.edu/agrnr_pubs/598","text":"External Repository"},{"id":396544,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas","otherGeospatial":"northern Gulf of Mexico","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -97.822265625,\n 26.60817437403311\n ],\n [\n -87.47314453125,\n 26.60817437403311\n ],\n [\n -87.47314453125,\n 31.034108344903512\n ],\n [\n -97.822265625,\n 31.034108344903512\n ],\n [\n -97.822265625,\n 26.60817437403311\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"45","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-10-03","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"DeMarco, K. 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A.","contributorId":275213,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Nyman","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":5115,"text":"Louisiana State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":836449,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Couvillion, Brady 0000-0001-5323-1687","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5323-1687","contributorId":222810,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Couvillion","given":"Brady","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":836448,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"La Peyre, Megan K. 0000-0001-9936-2252","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9936-2252","contributorId":264343,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"La Peyre","given":"Megan K.","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":836450,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70226957,"text":"70226957 - 2022 - Estimating urban air pollution contribution to South Platte River nitrogen loads with National Atmospheric Deposition Program data and SPARROW model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-12-22T13:00:51.139878","indexId":"70226957","displayToPublicDate":"2021-10-01T06:57:24","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2258,"text":"Journal of Environmental Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Estimating urban air pollution contribution to South Platte River nitrogen loads with National Atmospheric Deposition Program data and SPARROW model","docAbstract":"Air pollution is commonly disregarded as a source of nutrient loading to impaired surface waters managed under the Clean Water Act per states’ 303(d) list programs. The contribution of air pollution to 2017–2018 South Platte River nitrogen (N) loads was estimated from the headwaters to the gage at Weldona, Colorado, USA (100 km downstream of Denver), using data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model. The NADP offers wet-deposition raster created by spatial interpolation of data collected from regionally representative monitoring sites, excluding the influences from urban site data. For this study, NADP wet-deposition data obtained from sites within the Denver-Boulder, Colorado, urban corridor were included and excluded in new spatial interpolations of wet-deposition raster, which were used as input for SPARROW to model the influence of urban air pollution sources on South Platte River loads. Because urban air pollution is already incorporated into the NADP Total Deposition modeling methodology, dry N deposition was held constant for each SPARROW modeling scenario when dry deposition was included. By including the urban wet-deposition data in the model, estimated N loading to the South Platte River at Denver increased by 9–11 percent. Factoring in dry deposition at a 1:1.8 dry:wet ratio obtained from the results, urban air pollution was estimated to contribute as much as 20 percent of the nitrate Total Maximum Daily Load for Segment 14 of the South Platte River.
Most Americans receive their drinking water from publicly supplied sources, a large portion of it from groundwater. Mapping these populations consistently and at a high resolution is important for understanding where the resource is used and needs to be protected. The results show that 269 million people are supplied by public supply, 107 million are supplied by groundwater and 162 million are supplied by surface water. The population using public supply drinking water was mapped in two ways: the census enhanced method (CEM) evenly distributes the population across populated census blocks, and the urban land-use enhanced method (ULUEM) distributes the population only to certain urban land use designations. In addition, a two-dimensional polygon dataset was created for the conterminous U.S. that identifies 177 unique Hydrogeologic Mapping Units (HMUs) with similar hydrogeologic characteristics. The HMUs do not overlap, but they can delineate areas where stacked hydrogeologic regions (HRs) contribute drinking water from below the surface. HRs are waterbearing geologic regions identified as either a principal aquifers (PA) or secondary hydrogeologic regions (SHR). Within each HMU, the wells were used to determine the proportion of each HR that is providing groundwater to the HMU. In 63% of the HMUs, a single HR is providing water to the public supply wells located within it, while the rest of the HMUs show that the wells are tapping up to a maximum of four stacked HRs. In total, groundwater from 108 HRs provide drinking water for public supply, six of which provide more than 50% of the groundwater used for public supply drinking water. The aquifer serving the largest number of equivalent people (>17 million) is the glacial aquifer. The HR providing the greatest number of people per km2 is the Biscayne aquifer in Florida at nearly 453 people per km2.
Fire severity is a key driver shaping the ecological structure and function of North American boreal ecosystems, a biome dominated by large, high-intensity wildfires. Satellite-derived burn severity maps have been an important tool in these remote landscapes for both fire and resource management. The conventional methodology to produce satellite-inferred fire severity maps generally involves comparing imagery from 1 year before and 1 year after a fire, yet environmental conditions unique to the boreal have limited the accuracy of resulting products. We introduce an alternative method – the ‘hybrid composite’ – based on deriving mean severity over time on a per-pixel basis within the cloud-computing environment of Google Earth Engine. It constructs the post-fire image from satellite data composited from all valid images (i.e., clear-sky and snow-free) acquired in the time period immediately after fire through the early growing season of the following year. We compare this approach to paired-scene and composite approaches where the post-fire time period is from the growing season 1 year after fire. Validation statistics based on field-derived data for 52 fires across Alaska and Canada indicate that the hybrid composite method outperforms the other approaches. This approach presents an efficient and cost-effective means to monitor and explore trends and patterns across broad spatial domains, and could be applied to fires in other regions, especially those with frequent cloud cover or rapid vegetation recovery.
","language":"English","publisher":"Zoological Society of London","doi":"10.1002/rse2.238","usgsCitation":"Holsinger, L.M., Parks, S., Saperstein, L., Loehman, R.A., Whitman, E., Barnes, J.L., and Parisien, M., 2022, Improved fire severity mapping in the North American boreal forest using a hybrid composite method: Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, v. 8, no. 2, p. 222-235, https://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.238.","productDescription":"14 p.","startPage":"222","endPage":"235","ipdsId":"IP-129945","costCenters":[{"id":118,"text":"Alaska Science Center Geography","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":449694,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.238","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":400697,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Canada, United States","state":"Alaska","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n 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Previous histological and targeted chemical analyses have identified infectious agents and pollutants in fish tissues including organic contaminants, mercury, and perfluorinated compounds, but a common causative link for the observed signs of disease across this widespread area has not been determined. This study examines 146 young-of-year smallmouth bass collected from 14 sampling sites in the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania, USA with varying levels of disease prevalence. Whole fish were extracted by a recently developed modification to the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe extraction method and analyzed by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A targeted analysis was conducted to identify the presence and quantity of 127 known contaminants, including polychlorinated biphenyls, brominated diphenyl ethers, organochlorinated pesticides, and pharmaceutical and personal care products. A non-targeted analysis was conducted on the same data set to identify analytes of interest not included on routine target compound lists. Chromatographic alignment through Statistical Compare (ChromaTOF GC) was followed by Fisher ratio and principal component analysis to reduce the data set from thousands of peaks per sample to a final data set of 65 analytes of interest. Comparisons of these 65 compounds between Normal (no observed health anomalies) and Lesioned (observed health anomaly at time of collection) fish revealed increased levels of three chemical families in Lesioned fish including esters, ketones, and nitrogen containing compounds.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150378","usgsCitation":"Teehan, P., Schall, M., Blazer, V., and Dorman, F.L., 2022, Targeted and non-targeted analysis of young-of-year smallmouth bass using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry: Science of the Total Environment, v. 806, no. 2, 150378, 10 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150378.","productDescription":"150378, 10 p.","ipdsId":"IP-130510","costCenters":[{"id":50464,"text":"Eastern Ecological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":389815,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Chesapeake Bay watershed, Susquehanna River basin","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n 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vblazer@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6647-9614","contributorId":150384,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blazer","given":"Vicki S.","email":"vblazer@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":823987,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Dorman, Frank L","contributorId":236876,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Dorman","given":"Frank","email":"","middleInitial":"L","affiliations":[{"id":6738,"text":"The Pennsylvania State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":823988,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70236513,"text":"70236513 - 2022 - The 6 May 1947 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, earthquake","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-09-09T11:58:51.284302","indexId":"70236513","displayToPublicDate":"2021-09-15T06:56:30","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3372,"text":"Seismological Research Letters","onlineIssn":"1938-2057","printIssn":"0895-0695","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The 6 May 1947 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, earthquake","docAbstract":"The State of Wisconsin is not known for earthquake activity. The authoritative public‐facing U.S. Geological Survey Comprehensive Catalog of earthquakes includes only three small (magnitude < 2) earthquakes in the state, all instrumentally recorded. Although other catalogs include more events in Wisconsin, experience has shown that many types of events, such as explosions and cryoseisms, have made their way into earthquake catalogs in this region. In this short report, I summarize available information about an earthquake that was felt in eastern Wisconsin at 15:27 local time on 6 May 1947. As what appears to be the largest historical earthquake in the State of Wisconsin, it is of public interest, its modest size notwithstanding. It appears that no useful instrumental records exist, due in part to a teleseismic event that occurred approximately 3 min later, generating surface waves that were recorded on early long‐period instruments in the region. Instrumental data may exist for this event but have not been found. Comparing the felt area with information from recent earthquakes in the region, I estimate an intensity magnitude of 3.8 for the event, with a subjectively estimated uncertainty range 3.5–4.1. Relatively strong effects, including reports of broken dishes in Milwaukee, and shaking described as short but especially sharp, suggest that the event may have been among the sprinkling of shallow earthquakes now known to occur in the upper Great Lakes region.
Information on the annual variability in abundance and growth of juvenile groundfish can be useful for predicting fisheries stocks, but is often poorly known owing to difficulties in sampling fish in their first year of life. In the Western Gulf of Alaska (WGoA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystems, three species of puffin (tufted and horned puffin, Fratercula cirrhata, Fratercula corniculata, and rhinoceros auklet, Cerorhinca monocerata, Alcidae), regularly prey upon (i.e., “sample”) age-0 groundfish, including walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogramma, Gadidae) and Pacific cod (Gadus microcephalus, Gadidae). Here, we test the hypothesis that integrating puffin dietary data with walleye pollock stock assessment data provides information useful for fisheries management, including indices of interannual variation in age-0 abundance and growth. To test this hypothesis, we conducted cross-correlation and regression analyses of puffin-based indices and spawning stock biomass (SSB) for the WGoA and EBS walleye pollock stocks. For the WGoA, SSB leads the abundance of age-0 fish in the puffin diet, indicating that puffins sample the downstream production of the WGoA spawning stock. By contrast, the abundance and growth of age-0 fish sampled by puffins lead SSB for the EBS stock by 1–3 years, indicating that the puffin diet proxies incoming year class strength for this stock. Our study indicates connectivity between the WGoA and EBS walleye pollock stocks. Integration of non-traditional data sources, such as seabird diet data, with stock assessment data appears useful to inform information gaps important for managing US fisheries in the North Pacific.
Identifying sources of exposure to chemical stressors is difficult when both target organisms and stressors are highly mobile. While previous studies have demonstrated that populations of some organisms proximal to urban centers may display increased burdens of human-created chemicals compared to more distal populations, this relationship may not be universal when applied to organisms and stressors capable of transboundary movements. We examined eggs of brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis), a nearshore seabird with daily movements ranging from local to 50 km and annual migrations ranging from year-round residency to 1500 km. Thirty-six eggs from three breeding colonies located at increasing distances to a major urban center (Charleston, South Carolina, USA) were analyzed for concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Areas of high use for each colony during the breeding season were also assessed via the tracking of adult pelicans from each colony using GPS-PTT satellite transmitters and overlapped with measures of relative urbanization via land cover data. We report potentially significant ∑PFAS concentrations in the eggs of pelicans (175.4 ± 120.1 ng/g w wt. SD), driven largely by linear perfluorooctane sulfonate (n-PFOS) (48–546 ng/g w wt.). Residues of the precursor compound perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) were also present in pelican eggs, suggesting continued exposure of local wildlife beyond implemented phaseouts of some PFAS. For most analytes, egg concentrations did not exhibit a significant spatial structure despite some differentiation in high-use areas unlike similar data for another regional apex predator, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). We suggest that the partially migratory nature of brown pelicans during the non-breeding season, combined with daily ranges that may extend to 50 km from local point sources, may have homogenized exposure across individuals. Charleston likely remains a major source for PFAS in the overall region, however, given the high concentrations observed as well as known releases of PFAS in the nearshore environment.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150110","usgsCitation":"Wilkinson, B.P., Robuck, A., Lohman, R., Pickard, H.M., and Jodice, P.G., 2022, Urban proximity while breeding is not a predictor of perfluoroalkyl substance contamination in the eggs of brown pelicans: Science of the Total Environment, v. 803, 150110, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150110.","productDescription":"150110, 11 p.","ipdsId":"IP-126746","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":449715,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150110","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":396995,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"South Carolina","city":"Charleston","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -80.36911010742188,\n 32.48196313217176\n ],\n [\n -80.30868530273438,\n 32.46690196868371\n ],\n [\n -79.7662353515625,\n 32.690243035492266\n ],\n [\n -79.66049194335938,\n 32.856518010109546\n ],\n [\n -79.76211547851562,\n 32.99714648628775\n ],\n [\n -79.95574951171875,\n 33.14100094401691\n ],\n [\n -80.08758544921874,\n 33.17204260575893\n ],\n [\n -80.32791137695312,\n 32.923402043498875\n ],\n [\n -80.36911010742188,\n 32.48196313217176\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"803","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wilkinson, B. P.","contributorId":279808,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wilkinson","given":"B.","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":7084,"text":"Clemson University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":837776,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Robuck, A. R.","contributorId":288354,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Robuck","given":"A. R.","affiliations":[{"id":6922,"text":"University of Rhode Island","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":837777,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Lohman, R.","contributorId":288356,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lohman","given":"R.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6922,"text":"University of Rhode Island","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":837778,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Pickard, H. M.","contributorId":288357,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pickard","given":"H.","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":16811,"text":"Harvard University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":837779,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Jodice, Patrick G.R. 0000-0001-8716-120X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8716-120X","contributorId":219852,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Jodice","given":"Patrick","middleInitial":"G.R.","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":837780,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70236993,"text":"70236993 - 2022 - Effect of fixing earthquake depth in ShakeAlert algorithms on performance for intraslab earthquakes","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-09-27T12:23:25.206911","indexId":"70236993","displayToPublicDate":"2021-09-08T07:21:02","publicationYear":"2022","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3372,"text":"Seismological Research Letters","onlineIssn":"1938-2057","printIssn":"0895-0695","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Effect of fixing earthquake depth in ShakeAlert algorithms on performance for intraslab earthquakes","docAbstract":"We investigate whether assuming a fixed shallow depth in the ShakeAlert network‐based earthquake early warning system is sufficient to produce accurate ground‐motion based alerts for intraslab earthquakes. ShakeAlert currently uses a fixed focal depth of 8 km to estimate earthquake location and magnitude. This is an appropriate way to reduce computational costs without compromising alert accuracy in California, where earthquakes typically occur on shallow crustal faults. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), however, the most common moderate‐magnitude events occur within the subducting Juan de Fuca slab at depths between ∼35 and 65 km. Using a dataset of seismic recordings from 37 Mw 4.5+ intraslab earthquakes from the PNW and Chile, we replay events through the Earthquake Point‐Source Integrated Code and eqInfo2GM algorithms to estimate source parameters and compute modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) alert threshold contours. Each event is replayed twice—once using a fixed 8 km depth and a second time using the actual catalog earthquake depth. For each depth scenario, we analyze MMI III and IV contours using various performance metrics to determine the number of correctly alerted sites and measure warning times. We determine that shallow depth replays are more likely to produce errors in location estimates of greater than 50 km if the event is located outside of a seismic network. When located within a seismic network, shallow and catalog depth replays have similar epicenter estimates. Results show that applying catalog earthquake depth does not improve the accuracy of magnitude estimates or MMI alert threshold contours, or increase warning times. We conclude that using a fixed shallow earthquake depth for intraslab earthquakes will not significantly impact alert accuracy in the PNW.
The 2019
Environmental water management often benefits from a risk-based approach where information on the area of interest is characterized, assembled, and incorporated into a decision model considering uncertainty. This includes prior information from literature, field measurements, professional interpretation, and data assimilation resulting in a decision tool with a posterior uncertainty assessment accounting for prior understanding and what is learned through model development and data assimilation. Model construction and data assimilation are time consuming and prone to errors, which motivates a repeatable workflow where revisions resulting from new interpretations or discovery of errors can be addressed and the analyses repeated efficiently and rigorously. In this work, motivated by the real world application of delineating risk-based (probabilistic) sources of water to supply wells in a humid temperate climate, a scripted workflow was generated for groundwater model construction, data assimilation, particle-tracking and post-processing. The workflow leverages existing datasets describing hydrogeology, hydrography, water use, recharge, and lateral boundaries. These specific data are available in the United States but the tools can be applied to similar datasets worldwide. The workflow builds the model, performs ensemble-based history matching, and uses a posterior Monte Carlo approach to provide probabilistic capture zones describing source water to wells in a risk-based framework. The water managers can then select areas of varying levels of protection based on their tolerance for risk of potential wrongness of the underlying models. All the tools in this workflow are open-source and free, which facilitates testing of this repeatable and transparent approach to other environmental problems.
Regional scale forest distribution models are important tools for biogeography and understanding the structure of forest communities in space. These models take climate and geographic variables as input and are therefore helpful for long-term decision support and climate adaptation planning. Generally, local processes of tree germination and seedling survival are resolved probabilistically with explanatory variables such as elevation, latitude, exposure, soil type, moisture availability, climate and weather inputs and `trained’ using landscape and regional presence-absence data and machine learning techniques. How seeds are distributed in these models, that is, determining the dispersal kernel, is far more problematic. The challenge is that variables conditioning vertebrate seed dispersal (motility and probability of utilization or caching in response to cover type) are not represented in large scale distribution models, and in fact vary on scales (10-100 meters) that are much smaller than the smallest pixel size for the distribution model (1-10 kilometers). We present a homogenized seed digestion kernel (HSDK) which incorporates this scale separation. Homogenization naturally links highly variable small-scale processes (like seed foraging and caching by birds and rodents) with large scale effects (like dispersal of seeds over tens of kilometers). We develop a homogenization strategy to predict seed dispersal on landscape scales, analytically linking small-scale variables (landscape fraction cover by tree type, gut residence times and cover type utilization by frugivorous birds) with large scale behaviors. Closed form approximations are developed in two dimensions for two limiting cases of seed handling behavior, and the approach is illustrated using landscape data and piñon-pine dispersal in a 630,000 square kilometer region in the southwestern US.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.amc.2021.126591","usgsCitation":"Neupane, R.C., Powell, J., and Edwards, T., 2022, Connecting regional-scale tree distribution models with seed dispersal kernels: Applied Mathematics and Computation, v. 412, 126591, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126591.","productDescription":"126591, 17 p.","ipdsId":"IP-124972","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":449740,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126591","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":396921,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"412","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Neupane, Ram C.","contributorId":288149,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Neupane","given":"Ram","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":61709,"text":"ta&m","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":837519,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Powell, James A.","contributorId":288150,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Powell","given":"James A.","affiliations":[{"id":28050,"text":"USU","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":837520,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Edwards, Thomas C. Jr. 0000-0002-0773-0909 tce@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0773-0909","contributorId":191916,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Edwards","given":"Thomas C.","suffix":"Jr.","email":"tce@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":837518,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}