Populations of common ravens (Corvus corax; ravens) have increased rapidly within sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems between 1960 and 2020. Although ravens are native to North America, their population densities have expanded to levels that negatively influence the population dynamics of other wildlife species of conservation concern, such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). For this reason, lethal removal, such as the application of the avicide DRC-1339, has been used to manage raven numbers at local scales and under certain circumstances. Because the relative effectiveness of DRC-1339 in reducing raven populations densities is not thoroughly understood, we completed 2 case studies using a before-after-control-impact experimental design of density estimates generated from point count data within a Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling framework. Specifically, we analyzed >16,000 point count surveys collected during 2009–2019 and split into 2 study designs covering multiple field sites within the Great Basin region. The first experiment evaluated intra-annual changes in density by comparing before and after treatment time periods within a single breeding season for multiple treatment regions compared to 2 control regions. The other experiment focused on inter-annual differences by comparing time periods across years before and after the onset of annual avicide application for a single treatment region compared to multiple control regions. Our models estimated a 100% probability of decline in density relative to control sites for both the intra- and inter-annual model designs. At treatment sites, expected densities of ravens varied but were reduced by 43% (95% CRI: 33–49%) and 54% (95% CRI: 24–71%) according to intra- and inter-annual analyses, respectively, whereas densities increased by 42% (95% CRI: 27–60%) and 15% (95% CRI: -17 to 58%) at control sites. Although population densities were reduced with treatments, trends indicated that sustained effort would likely be needed to maintain densities at acceptable levels within regions of interest. Effectively reducing the adverse effects of raven populations on other native species likely will depend on a variety of targeted management actions such as improving habitat quality for prey species, possibly reducing ravens’ population density, and treating the cause of increased raven abundance to reduce future carrying capacity and prevent rebounds.
","language":"English","publisher":"Berryman Institute","doi":"10.26077/p79d-en84","usgsCitation":"O’Neil, S.T., Coates, P.S., Brockman, J.C., Jackson, P.J., Spencer, J.O., and Williams, P.J., 2021, Inter- and intra-annual effects of lethal removal on common raven abundance in Nevada and California, USA: Human–Wildlife Interactions, v. 15, no. 3, 20, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.26077/p79d-en84.","productDescription":"20, 16 p.","ipdsId":"IP-130888","costCenters":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":413856,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California, Nevada","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -114.06172324180406,\n 41.791122396069284\n ],\n [\n -120.49545088606604,\n 41.791122396069284\n ],\n [\n -120.49545088606604,\n 37.428574642347996\n ],\n [\n -114.06172324180406,\n 37.428574642347996\n ],\n [\n -114.06172324180406,\n 41.791122396069284\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"15","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"O’Neil, Shawn T. 0000-0002-0899-5220","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0899-5220","contributorId":206589,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O’Neil","given":"Shawn","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":865865,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Coates, Peter S. 0000-0003-2672-9994 pcoates@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9994","contributorId":3263,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Coates","given":"Peter","email":"pcoates@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":865866,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Brockman, Julia C.","contributorId":302928,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Brockman","given":"Julia","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":16686,"text":"University of Nevada, Reno","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":865867,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Jackson, Pat J.","contributorId":206602,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Jackson","given":"Pat","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":27489,"text":"Nevada Department of Wildlife","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":865868,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Spencer, Jack O. 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Movement patterns based on life history phases, particularly territoriality of breeding birds and transiency of nonbreeding birds, are thought to influence the frequency and efficacy of nest predation. As such, predicting where on the landscape territorial resident and non-territorial transient birds may be found in relation to the distribution of sensitive prey is of increasing importance to managers and conservationists. From 2007 to 2019, we conducted raven point count surveys between mid-March and mid-September across 43 different field sites representing typical sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of the Great Basin, USA. The surveys conducted during 2007–2016 were used in previously published maps of raven occurrence and density. Here, we examined the relationship between occurrence and density of ravens using spatially explicit predictions from 2 previously published studies and differentiate areas occupied by higher concentrations of resident ravens as opposed to transients. Surveys conducted during 2017–2019 were subsequently used to evaluate the predicted trends from our analytical approach. Specifically, we used residuals from a generalized linear regression to establish the relationship between occurrence and density, which ultimately resulted in a spatially explicit categorical map that identifies areas of resident versus transient ravens. We evaluated mapped categories using independently collected observed raven group sizes from the 2017–2019 survey data, as well as an independent dataset of global positioning system locations of resident and transient individuals monitored during 2019–2020. We observed moderate agreement between the mapped categories and independent datasets for both evaluation approaches. Our map provides broad inference about spatial variation in potential predation risk from ravens for species such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and can be used as a valuable spatial layer for decision support tools aimed at guiding raven management decisions and, ultimately, improving survival and reproduction of sensitive prey within the Great Basin.
","language":"English","publisher":"Berryman Institute","doi":"10.26077/djza-3976","usgsCitation":"Webster, S.C., O’Neil, S.T., Brussee, B.E., Coates, P.S., Jackson, P.J., Tull, J.C., and Delehanty, D.J., 2021, Spatial modeling of common raven density and occurrence helps guide landscape management within Great Basin sagebrush ecosystems: Human–Wildlife Interactions, v. 15, no. 3, 10, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.26077/djza-3976.","productDescription":"10, 19 p.","ipdsId":"IP-130899","costCenters":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":436107,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P900CRGI","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Raven Occurrence and Density in the Great Basin Region of the Western United States (2007-2019)"},{"id":413854,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Arizona, California, 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0000-0003-4981-2010","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4981-2010","contributorId":302117,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Webster","given":"Sarah","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":865871,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"O’Neil, Shawn T. 0000-0002-0899-5220","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0899-5220","contributorId":206589,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O’Neil","given":"Shawn","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":865872,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Brussee, Brianne E. 0000-0002-2452-7101 bbrussee@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2452-7101","contributorId":4249,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Brussee","given":"Brianne","email":"bbrussee@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":865873,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Coates, Peter S. 0000-0003-2672-9994 pcoates@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9994","contributorId":3263,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Coates","given":"Peter","email":"pcoates@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":865874,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Jackson, Pat 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Retreat and regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial as simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 coupled climate–ice sheet model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-03-23T13:57:55.277892","indexId":"70230007","displayToPublicDate":"2021-12-01T08:45:41","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":5790,"text":"Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Retreat and regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial as simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 coupled climate–ice sheet model","docAbstract":"During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model-derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre-industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice-sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high-latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice-sheet response.","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/2021PA004272","usgsCitation":"Sommers, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Lipscomb, W., Lofverstrom, M., Shafer, S., Bartlein, P.J., Brady, E.C., Kluzek, E., Leguy, G., Thayer-Calder, K., and Tomas, R., 2021, Retreat and regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial as simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 coupled climate–ice sheet model: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, v. 36, no. 12, e2021PA004272, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004272.","productDescription":"e2021PA004272, 19 p.","ipdsId":"IP-117386","costCenters":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science 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Research","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838640,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Lofverstrom, Marcus","contributorId":289166,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lofverstrom","given":"Marcus","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":7042,"text":"University of Arizona","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838641,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Shafer, Sarah 0000-0003-3739-2637 sshafer@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3739-2637","contributorId":149866,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Shafer","given":"Sarah","email":"sshafer@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":838642,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Bartlein, Patrick J. 0000-0001-7657-5685","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7657-5685","contributorId":211587,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bartlein","given":"Patrick","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":33397,"text":"U of Oregon","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838643,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Brady, Esther C. 0000-0001-7833-2249","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7833-2249","contributorId":289169,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Brady","given":"Esther","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":6648,"text":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838644,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Kluzek, Erik 0000-0002-1606-9219","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1606-9219","contributorId":289172,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kluzek","given":"Erik","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6648,"text":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838645,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Leguy, Gunter 0000-0002-9963-8076","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-8076","contributorId":289175,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Leguy","given":"Gunter","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6648,"text":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838646,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Thayer-Calder, Katherine","contributorId":289176,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Thayer-Calder","given":"Katherine","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6648,"text":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838647,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Tomas, Robert","contributorId":289179,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Tomas","given":"Robert","affiliations":[{"id":6648,"text":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838648,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11}]}} ,{"id":70236081,"text":"70236081 - 2021 - Changes in liquefaction severity in the San Francisco Bay Area with sea-level rise","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-08-29T12:15:11.769298","indexId":"70236081","displayToPublicDate":"2021-12-01T07:11:23","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"Changes in liquefaction severity in the San Francisco Bay Area with sea-level rise","docAbstract":"This paper studies the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction triggering and severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California, for the M 7.0 “HayWired” earthquake scenario along the Hayward fault. This work emerged from stakeholder engagement for the US Geological Survey releases of the HayWired earthquake scenario and the Coastal Storm Modeling System projects, in which local planners and engineers asked where, why, and by how much liquefaction hazards may change due to sea-level rise in the future. We assess the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction by computing changes in liquefaction potential index (LPI) for over 400 cone penetration test (CPT) soundings around the San Francisco Bay for groundwater table models developed for current and increased sea levels of up to 5 m. For the M 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario, we find that while the majority of sites are insensitive to sea-level changes of less than 1 m, some sites are highly sensitive to small changes in water levels. We then repeat these analyses for a uniform shaking scenario to isolate the effects of sea-level rise and we find similar patterns of change. For both earthquake scenarios, modest changes in overall LPI are expected for increases in sea level, but individual sites may see significant increases in liquefaction likelihood and severity.
Aquatic systems in and around the Long Island Sound (LIS) provide a variety of ecological and economic benefits, but in some areas of the LIS, aquatic ecosystems have become degraded by excess nitrogen. A substantial fraction of the nitrogen inputs to the LIS are transported through the groundwater-flow system. Because groundwater travel times in surficial aquifers can exceed 100 years, multiyear lags are introduced between inputs at the water table in recharge areas and discharge to inland or coastal receiving waters. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study, developed a steady-state groundwater model of the watersheds draining from the northern shore of the LIS for the purpose of calculating groundwater budgets and travel times to coastal waters.
The model was developed by using the MODFLOW–NWT software and existing spatial data on aquifers, river networks, land-surface altitudes, land cover, groundwater recharge, and water use. Coastal waters were delineated on the basis of the National Wetland Inventory; all non-coastal waters were collectively termed “inland waters.” A coarse-resolution model was calibrated by using the PEST++ software, long-term records of water levels in 65 wells, stream altitudes from 477 streams, base-flow records for 14 streamgages that are relatively unaffected by withdrawals, and error metrics based on incorrectly simulated flooding and incorrectly simulated dry streams. The calibrated values were used in a fine-resolution model in which the mean absolute residuals were 4.5 meters for groundwater levels, 1.3 meters for stream altitudes, and 7,200 cubic meters per day (2.9 cubic feet per second) for base flow. About 89 percent of the terrestrial cells were correctly simulated with the water table below land surface, and nearly 90 percent of the cells representing streams were correctly simulated as having the water table above the stream bottom. Together, these metrics suggest that this model is robust for simulating regional-scale groundwater patterns.
Simulated groundwater budgets were compiled for the entire study area, for each HUC12 (Hydrologic Unit Code no. 12) watershed and its adjacent coastal waters, if applicable, within the study area, and for 14 coastal-embayment watersheds. Most groundwater (90.6 percent of inflows) discharged to inland waters, with smaller fractions to coastal waters (7.0 percent) and well withdrawals (2.4 percent). When computed for HUC12 watersheds with coastal discharge, the portions of groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from 0.02 to 66 percent of groundwater outflows, with a median of 13 percent. Within priority-embayment watersheds, the portions of groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from 2 to 56 percent, with a median of 15 percent.
Groundwater travel times also were simulated for the entire study area, for each HUC12 watershed and its adjacent coastal waters, if applicable, within the study area and for 14 priority coastal embayments. Within the entire study area, the median groundwater travel time was 1.9 years, with an interquartile range of 0.1 to 5.9 years. Sensitivity analysis of groundwater travel times within a subbasin in the study area indicates that the travel times are a function of the grid resolution, with coarser grids resulting in shorter median travel times. Travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters were similar to travel times for groundwater discharging to inland waters, with a median of 1.9 years. Median travel times for the HUC12 watersheds ranged from 0.9 to 53.5 years, with a median of 1.8 years. Among HUC12 watersheds that include coastal areas, travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from less than 1 to 61.6 years, with a median of 2.8 years. The HUC12 watersheds with the longest simulated travel times were in the urban area near New York City where the model performance is less accurate. Median travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters within the priority-embayment watersheds ranged from less than 1 to 18.6 years, with a median of 2.3 years.
A more focused analysis was conducted for the Niantic River watershed to demonstrate the applicability of the regional model to local-scale nitrogen-transport analyses by using nitrogen-input and -attenuation rates from literature sources. Nitrogen inputs were estimated by using land-cover-based loading factors, and attenuation was estimated by using attenuation factors based on geologic zones and soil properties. Based on this analysis, groundwater transports an estimated 22,000 kilograms of nitrogen per year (2.9 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare per year) to streams, rivers, and coastal waters within the Niantic River watershed. Approximately 36 percent of discharging nitrogen is from atmospheric-deposition sources, 38 percent is from fertilizers, and 26 percent is from septic systems. Most of the groundwater-transported nitrogen (88 percent) discharges first to streams and rivers, with only 12 percent discharging directly to coastal waters. Travel times for groundwater-transported nitrogen ranged from less than 1 day to more than 100 years, with a median of 1.6 years.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/sir20215116","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study and the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection","usgsCitation":"Barclay, J.R., and Mullaney, J.R., 2021, Simulation of groundwater budgets and travel times for watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, with implications for nitrogen-transport studies: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2021–5116, 84 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215116.","productDescription":"Report: x, 84 p.; 2 Data Releases","numberOfPages":"84","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-117840","costCenters":[{"id":466,"text":"New England Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":391933,"rank":4,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P91TQ895","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Summary data on groundwater budgets and travel times for watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound"},{"id":391932,"rank":3,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BLHPIT","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"MODFLOW–NWT and MODPATH groundwater flow models of steady-state conditions in coastal Connecticut and adjacent areas of New York and Rhode Island, as well as a nitrogen transport model of the Niantic River watershed"},{"id":391931,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2021/5116/sir20215116.pdf","text":"Report","size":"30.6 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIR 2021-5116"},{"id":391930,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2021/5116/coverthb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island","otherGeospatial":"Long island Sound","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -73.9324951171875,\n 40.826280356677124\n ],\n [\n -71.45782470703125,\n 40.826280356677124\n ],\n [\n -71.45782470703125,\n 41.50857729743935\n ],\n [\n -73.9324951171875,\n 41.50857729743935\n ],\n [\n -73.9324951171875,\n 40.826280356677124\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Director, New England Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
10 Bearfoot Road
Northborough, MA 01532
Evaluations of resource use among native piscivores in natural lakes have consistently documented significant partitioning that supports coexistence. Partitioning may be less prominent in reservoirs where water-level fluctuations can compress habitat and trophic diversity, but studies are lacking. Stable isotopes and bioenergetic models were used to quantify trophic interactions within a native piscivore assemblage inhabiting a temperate irrigation reservoir and explore implications for coexistence with a focus on threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). As hypothesised, adult bull trout exhibited the greatest degree of trophic specialisation by consuming mostly coldwater pelagic forage fish, which were consumed seasonally by the more abundant burbot (Lota lota) and northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis). Numerous trophic niche overlap probabilities exceeded 70%, were as high as 93% and greatest between bull trout and burbot. Bioenergetics simulations demonstrated the high seasonal consumption capacity of burbot relative to northern pikeminnow. As a result, threefold to fourfold fewer burbot were required to consume the annual productivity of coldwater prey important for bull trout, particularly in the absence of small-bodied mesothermic or eurythermal fish as a buffer. Collectively, our analysis elucidated relatively strong trophic niche overlap among similarly sized piscivores, the importance of maintaining a diverse forage fish community for promoting coexistence and the greatest potential for competitive interactions between adult bull trout and burbot if key prey were limited or less diverse. More studies in regulated systems are needed to test for consistent patterns and identify mechanisms that limit or promote coexistence amid growing human-induced environmental change and demands on freshwater.
Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021).
Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts.
The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information.
The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are:
(1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time.
Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise.
(2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced.
Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate.
(3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts.
Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity.
The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20211102","usgsCitation":"Keisman, J.L., Bristol, S., Brown, D.S., Flickinger, A.K., Gunther, G., Murdoch, P.S., Musgrove, M., Nelson, J.C., Steyer, G.D., Thomas, K.A., and Waite, I.R., 2021, Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2021-1102, 110 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20211102.","productDescription":"Report: v, 110 p.; Data Release","numberOfPages":"110","onlineOnly":"Y","ipdsId":"IP-129970","costCenters":[{"id":208,"text":"Core Science Analytics and Synthesis","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":241,"text":"Eastern Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":455,"text":"National Wetlands Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":518,"text":"Oregon Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":568,"text":"Southwest Biological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":583,"text":"Texas Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":606,"text":"Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":41514,"text":"Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":392008,"rank":5,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BB5NMZ","linkHelpText":"USGS Earthmap Capacity Assessment Dataset"},{"id":392006,"rank":4,"type":{"id":34,"text":"Image Folder"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1102/images"},{"id":392005,"rank":3,"type":{"id":31,"text":"Publication XML"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1102/ofr20211102.xml"},{"id":392004,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1102/ofr20211102.pdf","text":"Report","size":"6 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"}},{"id":392003,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1102/covrthb.jpg"}],"contact":"Director,
U.S. Geological Survey
12201 Sunrise Valley Drive
Reston, VA 20192
The widespread application of directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies expanded oil and gas (OG) development to previously inaccessible resources. A single OG well can generate millions of liters of wastewater, which is a mixture of brine produced from the fractured formations and injected hydraulic fracturing fluids (HFFs). With thousands of wells completed each year, safe management of OG wastewaters has become a major challenge to the industry and regulators. OG wastewaters are commonly disposed of by underground injection, and previous research showed that surface activities at an Underground Injection Control (UIC) facility in West Virginia affected stream biogeochemistry and sediment microbial communities immediately downstream from the facility. Because microbially driven processes can control the fate and transport of organic and inorganic components of OG wastewater, we designed a series of aerobic microcosm experiments to assess the influence of high total dissolved solids (TDS) and two common HFF additives—the biocide 2,2-dibromo-3-nitrilopropionamide (DBNPA) and ethylene glycol (an anti-scaling additive)—on microbial community structure and function. Microcosms were constructed with sediment collected upstream (background) or downstream (impacted) from the UIC facility in West Virginia. Exposure to elevated TDS resulted in a significant decrease in aerobic respiration, and microbial community analysis following incubation indicated that elevated TDS could be linked to the majority of change in community structure. Over the course of the incubation, the sediment layer in the microcosms became anoxic, and addition of DBNPA was observed to inhibit iron reduction. In general, disruptions to microbial community structure and function were more pronounced in upstream and background sediment microcosms than in impacted sediment microcosms. These results suggest that the microbial community in impacted sediments had adapted following exposure to OG wastewater releases from the site. Our findings demonstrate the potential for releases from an OG wastewater disposal facility to alter microbial communities and biogeochemical processes. We anticipate that these studies will aid in the development of useful models for the potential impact of UIC disposal facilities on adjoining surface water and shallow groundwater.
Juvenile tree survival will play an important role in the persistence of coniferous forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States (SWUS). Vulnerability to climatic and environmental stress declines as trees grow, such that larger, more deeply rooted juveniles are less likely to experience mortality. It is unclear how juvenile conifers partition the aboveground and belowground components of early growth, if growth differs between species and ecosystem types, and what environmental factors influence juvenile carbon allocation above- or belowground. We developed a novel data set for four juvenile conifer groups (junipers, piñon pines, ponderosa pines, firs; 1121 juveniles sampled, 221 destructively) in three height classes (<150 mm, 150–300 mm, and 300+ mm), across 25 SWUS sites. We compared growth characteristics across groups and height classes and related differences to climatic and environmental factors. As tree height increased from <150 mm to 300+ mm, belowground growth increased, root:shoot ratio declined, and specific leaf area declined for all conifers except firs. Maximum rooting depth was shallower than previous estimates (<˜400 mm). Lower elevation juveniles were frequently located in sheltered microsites that provided high shading, whereas mid- and higher elevation juveniles were frequently unsheltered. Across all forest and woodland sites, herbaceous cover was positively correlated with aboveground growth. At study locations comprised of multiple sites, differences in aboveground growth were best explained by ecosystem type (piñon pine-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, mixed-conifer forest) and local environmental variation. Our results indicate generally more belowground early growth and more aboveground later growth, but specific allocation patterns varied among ecosystem (greater proportional shoot growth at lower and mid-elevations compared with higher elevations). Juvenile conifers had similar magnitudes of proportional growth across conifer groups, displaying limited capacity to acclimate growth to differences in climate that control ecosystem type. If juvenile conifers also do not acclimate physiologically to their environment, our findings suggest that local environmental variation will play a primary role in regulating forest and woodland persistence and modify the effects of climate change in the SWUS.
The disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) was first recognized in upstate New York in 2006 and has since spread across much of the United States (U.S.), causing severe mortality in several North American bat species. To aid in the identification and monitoring of at-risk bat populations, we evaluate factors associated with the presence of the causative fungal agent of WNS, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), in the continental United States. We obtained Pd samples through hibernaculum surveys conducted from 2013 to 2020, with all samples analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center. Using generalized additive models, we estimated the likelihood of Pd presence under three different hypotheses: human-mediated, species-mediated, and hibernaculum type. In addition to hypothesis-related predictor variables, a subset of models included a smoothed nonseparable effect of longitude and latitude and a smoothed effect of time since study onset to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Under all hypotheses, models indicated probability of Pd detection is best described by the smoothed nonseparable effect of longitude and latitude and a smoothed effect of time since onset of this study. After accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelations, only hibernaculum type significantly affected Pd presence, with mines and culverts/tunnels less likely to contain Pd compared with caves. Reduced likelihood of Pd presence in mines and culverts/tunnels bodes well for bats of the western and southern United States, where use of these hibernaculum types is more common. While our findings can help guide monitoring and management efforts, the potential for long-distance dispersal combined with variation in community composition and hibernation ecology between the western and eastern United States necessitates the continued monitoring of Pd presence.
The noble gas temperature climate proxy is an established tool that has previously been applied to determine the source of groundwater recharge, however, unanswered questions remain. In fractured media (e.g., volcanic islands) recharge can be so rapid that groundwater is significantly depleted in heavy noble gases, indicating that the water has retained noble gas concentrations from higher elevations. Previous studies of rain samples have confirmed a match to patterns seen in fractured-rock groundwater for heavy noble gases along with a significant helium excess. Snow has been shown to be a credible source for both the helium excess and the observed heavy noble gas pattern. Here, liquid cloud water samples were collected at two mountainous sites and analyzed for noble gas concentrations. A pattern like that of rainwater was found. However, an analysis of diffusive uptake of noble gases into cloud water demonstrates that droplets of 1 mm diameter and smaller should be in constant solubility equilibrium with the atmosphere. To explain this, we present a novel hypothesis that relies on the assumption that liquid water consists of two types of water molecule clusters bounded by hydrogen bonds: a low-density ice-like structure and a high-density condensed structure. In this model, the pressure gradient near the surface of a droplet resulting from surface tension could allow for the formation of a surface layer that is rich in ice-like low density clusters. This can explain both the helium excess and the heavy noble gas depletion seen in the samples.
Indicator species are species which can be monitored as an index to measure the overall health of an ecosystem. Crocodylians have been shown to be good indicators of wetland condition as they respond to changes in hydrology, can be efficiently monitored, and are a key part of ecosystem trophic relationships. Eye shine surveys at night are a standard method used to sample alligators, but because some individuals that are present in a study area may go undetected and the proportion of individuals counted is not constant over time, appropriate modeling is required to convert counts to estimates of abundance. We analyzed 13 years of American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) survey count data from South Florida using an N-mixture model. Alligator abundance estimates were assigned to quartiles that were then represented as color coded categories of red, yellow, or green to provide a straightforward rating of Everglades restoration based on familiar stoplight coloring. These results were then compared to a previously used method in which unadjusted counts of these same data were assigned to color coded quartile categories. Water depth played a major role in the detection probability of alligators and the stoplight colors between the two methods matched 76% of the time. This suggests that the original stoplight score method provided a good overall snapshot of the trends in alligator abundance in the Everglades; however, the hierarchical models estimate abundance and trends of alligator abundance by incorporating detection probability thus providing unbiased estimates of abundance.
Effective conservation for listed migratory species requires an understanding of how drivers of population decline vary spatially and temporally, as well as knowledge of range-wide connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. Environmental conditions distant from breeding areas can have lasting effects on the demography of migratory species, yet these consequences are often the least understood. Our objectives were to 1) evaluate associations between survival and extreme environmental disturbances at nonbreeding areas, including hurricanes, harmful algal blooms, and oil spills, and 2) estimate migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas of midcontinental piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We used capture and resighting data from 5067 individuals collected between 2002 and 2019 from breeding areas across the midcontinent, and nonbreeding areas throughout the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic coasts of North America. We developed a hidden Markov multistate model to estimate seasonal survival and account for unobservable geographic locations. Hurricanes and harmful algal blooms were negatively associated with nonbreeding season survival, but we did not detect a similarly negative relationship with oil spills. Our results indicated that individuals from separate breeding areas mixed across nonbreeding areas with low migratory connectivity. Mixing among individuals in the nonbreeding season may provide a buffering effect against impacts of extreme events on any one breeding region. Our results suggest that understanding migratory connectivity and linking seasonal threats to population dynamics can better inform conservation strategies for migratory shorebirds.
As science becomes increasingly cross-disciplinary and scientific models become increasingly cross-coupled, standardized practices of model evaluation are more important than ever. For normally distributed data, mean squared error (MSE) is ideal as an objective measure of model performance, but it gives little insight into what aspects of model performance are “good” or “bad.” This apparent weakness has led to a myriad of specialized error metrics, which are sometimes aggregated to form a composite score. Such scores are inherently subjective, however, and while their components may be interpretable, the composite itself is not. We contend that, a better approach to model benchmarking and interpretation is to decompose MSE into interpretable components. To demonstrate the versatility of this approach, we outline some fundamental types of decomposition and apply them to predictions at 1,021 streamgages across the conterminous United States from three streamflow models. Through this demonstration, we hope to show that each component in a decomposition represents a distinct concept, like “season” or “variability,” and that simple decompositions can be combined to represent more complex concepts, like “seasonal variability,” creating an expressive language through which to interrogate models and data.
Seismic attenuation is generally greater in the western United States (WUS) than the central and eastern United States (CEUS), but the nature of this transition or location of this boundary is poorly constrained. We conduct crustal seismic (Lg) attenuation tomography across a region that stretches from the CEUS across the Rocky Mountains to the Basin and Range using a total of 115,870 amplitude measurements from 106 earthquakes recorded on 544 stations across five frequency bands spanning 0.5–16 Hz. Similar to previous studies, we find higher attenuation in the WUS (Q0 ∼ 190) than the nominally CEUS (Q0 ∼ 250) and comparatively high attenuation on the Gulf Coast (Q0 ∼ 175). Our models defy simple east versus west regionalization, however. Heterogeneity within the Rocky Mountain region—low attenuation in the Colorado Plateau interior and Wyoming Craton (Q0 ∼ 230) compared to high attenuation in the southern Rockies (Q0 ∼ 110)—exceeds the gross differences between the CEUS and western United States. These province-scale patterns are readily interpreted in terms of intrinsic attenuation. The boundary between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range hosts the highest attenuation imaged in the study area (Q0 ∼ 90), consistent with localized scattering across contrasting crustal structure. Focused high attenuation in the southern Rockies may represent the effects of represent in situ partial crustal melt. Within the CEUS, second-order bands of comparatively high attenuation align with the Proterozoic Yavapai-Mazatzal suture zone and Midcontinent Rift. This complex attenuation structure defies broad regionalization and suggests a need for path-specific models near these boundaries and for critical infrastructure.
Research presented in the preceding chapters emphasizes recent advancements in the research, management, and aquaculture of Walleye, Sauger, and Yellow Perch in North America. These percid fishes, along with the European Perch and Pikeperch, are economically and ecologically important fishes in their native geographic range. Advances in techniques to evaluate current habitat and predict future habitat conditions provide managers with detailed baseline information and biophysical models useful for evaluating adaptive management practices. Current habitat use and movement assessments have improved substantially with technological advancements in acoustic tags and extensive receiver array networks, which, combined with genetic and genomic tools, are improving percid stock assessments and management. Advances in percid aquaculture techniques have improved growth, survival, and disease resistance, enhancing percid stocking efforts and the production of marketable fish. The exchange of information between researchers and managers will continue to advance techniques of percid management for commercial and recreational exploitation and improve aquaculture practices to provide a lucrative commercial aquaculture industry.
","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Yellow Perch, Walleye, and Sauger: Aspects of ecology, management, and culture","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":15,"text":"Monograph"},"language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-80678-1_12","usgsCitation":"DeBruyne, R., and Roseman, E., 2021, International importance of Percids: Summary and looking forward, chap. of Yellow Perch, Walleye, and Sauger: Aspects of ecology, management, and culture, p. 309-320, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80678-1_12.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"309","endPage":"320","ipdsId":"IP-128480","costCenters":[{"id":324,"text":"Great Lakes Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":392676,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-11-22","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"DeBruyne, Robin L.","contributorId":139752,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"DeBruyne","given":"Robin L.","affiliations":[{"id":12902,"text":"MI State UNiversity","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":828102,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Roseman, Edward F. 0000-0002-5315-9838","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5315-9838","contributorId":217909,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Roseman","given":"Edward F.","affiliations":[{"id":324,"text":"Great Lakes Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":828103,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70229763,"text":"70229763 - 2021 - Co-occurring lotic crayfishes exhibit variable long-term responses to extreme-flow events and temperature","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-03-17T16:45:05.624976","indexId":"70229763","displayToPublicDate":"2021-11-21T11:15:12","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1699,"text":"Freshwater Science","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Co-occurring lotic crayfishes exhibit variable long-term responses to extreme-flow events and temperature","docAbstract":"Crayfish serve critical roles in aquatic ecosystems as engineers, omnivores, and prey. It is unclear how increasingly frequent extreme-flow events and warming air temperatures will affect crayfish populations, partly because there are few long-term crayfish monitoring datasets. Using a unique 10-y dataset, we asked 1) whether recruitment of crayfishes in summer responded to extreme-flow events and air temperature during spring brooding and summer growing periods and 2) whether responses were similar among 3 co-occurring crayfish species. Golden (Faxonius luteus [Creaser, 1933]), Ozark (Faxonius ozarkae [Williams, 1952]), and Spothand (Faxonius punctimanus [Creaser, 1933]) crayfishes were sampled in quadrats at 2 sites each in the Big Piney (1993–2000) and Jacks Fork (1992–2001) rivers (Missouri, USA; n = 3355 1-m2 quadrats). We used zero-inflated generalized linear models to relate variability in quadrat-level age-0 counts to mean daily maximum air temperatures and flow metrics (variability, magnitude, and frequency of extreme high- and low-flow events). Species ranged from a small-bodied, abundant habitat generalist (Golden Crayfish) to large-bodied, uncommon habitat specialists (Ozark and Spothand crayfishes). Golden Crayfish occurred in higher-velocity habitats (riffles, runs) and had variable recruitment that increased during years with few spring and summer high-flow events and summers with lower flows and warmer temperatures. In contrast, annual recruitment variability of Ozark and Spothand crayfishes was low and explained by positive effects of cooler summers and by different flow metrics. Spothand Crayfish recruitment decreased in years with frequent spring and summer high-flow events, whereas lower summer minimum flow was the only flow metric that explained slight increases in Ozark Crayfish recruitment. Relationships with the preceding year’s recruitment were quadratic for Ozark and Spothand crayfishes, suggesting potential density dependence at higher recruitment levels. Species-specific responses suggest that closely related crayfishes could respond idiosyncratically to changes in temperature and flow. Temperature- and flow-related disturbances may be key mechanisms mediating competition and, thus, may help maintain crayfish diversity. However, warming air temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme-flow events could disadvantage some species, thereby altering future crayfish assemblages.
","language":"English","publisher":"Society for Freshwater Science","doi":"10.1086/717486","usgsCitation":"Dunn, C.G., Moore, M.J., Sievert, N., Paukert, C.P., and DiStefano, R., 2021, Co-occurring lotic crayfishes exhibit variable long-term responses to extreme-flow events and temperature: Freshwater Science, v. 40, no. 4, p. 626-643, https://doi.org/10.1086/717486.","productDescription":"18 p.","startPage":"626","endPage":"643","ipdsId":"IP-127694","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":450160,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717486","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":397261,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Missouri","otherGeospatial":"Big Piney River, Jacks Forks River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -91.84673309326172,\n 37.07791492175793\n ],\n [\n -91.80965423583984,\n 37.07791492175793\n ],\n [\n -91.80965423583984,\n 37.0921568267209\n ],\n [\n -91.84673309326172,\n 37.0921568267209\n ],\n [\n -91.84673309326172,\n 37.07791492175793\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -92.05821990966797,\n 37.15128685950638\n ],\n [\n -92.00122833251953,\n 37.15128685950638\n ],\n [\n -92.00122833251953,\n 37.2125580936087\n ],\n [\n -92.05821990966797,\n 37.2125580936087\n ],\n [\n -92.05821990966797,\n 37.15128685950638\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"40","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dunn, Corey Garland 0000-0002-7102-2165","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7102-2165","contributorId":288691,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dunn","given":"Corey","email":"","middleInitial":"Garland","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":838223,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Moore, Michael J.","contributorId":274823,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Moore","given":"Michael","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":6754,"text":"University of Missouri","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838224,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Sievert, Nicholas A. 0000-0003-3160-7596","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3160-7596","contributorId":177341,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Sievert","given":"Nicholas A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":838448,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Paukert, Craig P. 0000-0002-9369-8545","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-8545","contributorId":245524,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Paukert","given":"Craig","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":838225,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"DiStefano, Robert J.","contributorId":213268,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"DiStefano","given":"Robert J.","affiliations":[{"id":16971,"text":"Missouri Department of Conservation","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":838226,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70228224,"text":"70228224 - 2021 - Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-02-08T15:43:48.285368","indexId":"70228224","displayToPublicDate":"2021-11-21T09:38:08","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":5053,"text":"Earth's Future","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model","docAbstract":"Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nuisance flooding during the 21st century. A surrogate modeling framework of waves, winds, and tides is developed in this study to efficiently predict spatially varying nearshore and estuarine water levels contingent on any combination of offshore forcing conditions. The surrogate models are coupled with a time-dependent stochastic climate emulator that provides efficient downscaling for hypothetical iterations of offshore conditions. Together, the hybrid statistical-dynamical framework can assess present day and future coastal flood risk, including the chronological characteristics of individual flood and wave-induced dune overtopping events and their changes into the future. The framework is demonstrated at Naval Base Coronado in San Diego, CA, utilizing the regional Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS; composed of Delft3D and XBeach) as the dynamic simulator and Gaussian process regression as the surrogate modeling tool. Validation of the framework uses both in-situ tide gauge observations within San Diego Bay, and a nearshore cross-shore array deployment of pressure sensors in the open beach surf zone. The framework reveals the relative influence of large-scale climate variability on future coastal flood resilience metrics relevant to the management of an open coast artificial berm, as well as the stochastic nature of future total water levels.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/2021EF002285","usgsCitation":"Anderson, D.L., Ruggiero, P., Mendez, F.J., Barnard, P.L., Erikson, L.H., O'Neill, A., Merrifield, M., Rueda, A., Cagigal, L., and Marra, J.M., 2021, Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model: Earth's Future, v. 9, no. 12, e2021EF002285, 24 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002285.","productDescription":"e2021EF002285, 24 p.","ipdsId":"IP-111912","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":450163,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002285","text":"External Repository"},{"id":395620,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","city":"San Diego","otherGeospatial":"Naval Base Coronado","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -117.32986450195312,\n 32.54565554741415\n ],\n [\n -117.05795288085936,\n 32.54565554741415\n ],\n [\n -117.05795288085936,\n 32.87555050280593\n ],\n [\n -117.32986450195312,\n 32.87555050280593\n ],\n [\n -117.32986450195312,\n 32.54565554741415\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"9","issue":"12","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Anderson, D. L.","contributorId":274874,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Anderson","given":"D.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":6680,"text":"Oregon State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":833469,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Ruggiero, P.","contributorId":191579,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ruggiero","given":"P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":833470,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Mendez, F. J.","contributorId":274876,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mendez","given":"F.","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":27840,"text":"Universidad de Cantabria","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":833471,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Barnard, Patrick L. 0000-0003-1414-6476 pbarnard@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-6476","contributorId":140982,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barnard","given":"Patrick","email":"pbarnard@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":833472,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Erikson, Li H. 0000-0002-8607-7695 lerikson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8607-7695","contributorId":149963,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Erikson","given":"Li","email":"lerikson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":833473,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"O'Neill, Andrea C. 0000-0003-1656-4372 aoneill@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1656-4372","contributorId":5351,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O'Neill","given":"Andrea C.","email":"aoneill@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":833474,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Merrifield, M.","contributorId":274878,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Merrifield","given":"M.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":37799,"text":"SCRIPPS","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":833475,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Rueda, A.","contributorId":274880,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Rueda","given":"A.","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":27840,"text":"Universidad de Cantabria","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":833476,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Cagigal, L.","contributorId":274882,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Cagigal","given":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":27840,"text":"Universidad de Cantabria","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":833477,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Marra, J. M.","contributorId":219619,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Marra","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":833478,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10}]}} ,{"id":70226550,"text":"70226550 - 2021 - Classifying crop types using two generations of hyperspectral sensors (Hyperion and DESIS) with machine learning on the cloud","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-11-24T13:27:41.850893","indexId":"70226550","displayToPublicDate":"2021-11-21T07:23:35","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3250,"text":"Remote Sensing","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Classifying crop types using two generations of hyperspectral sensors (Hyperion and DESIS) with machine learning on the cloud","docAbstract":"Understanding the age and movement of groundwater is important for predicting the vulnerability of wells to contamination, constraining flow models that inform sustainable groundwater management, and interpreting geochemical signals that reflect past climate. Due to both the ubiquity of groundwater with order ten-thousand-year residence times and its importance for climate reconstruction of the last glacial period, there is a strong need for improving geochemical dating tools on this timescale. Whereas 14C of dissolved inorganic carbon and dissolved 4He are common age tracers for Late Pleistocene groundwater, each is limited by systematic uncertainties related to aquifer composition and lithology, and the extent of water-rock interaction. In principle, radiogenic 40Ar in groundwater acquired from decay of 40K in aquifer minerals should be insensitive to some processes that impact 14C and 4He and thus represent a useful, complementary age tracer. In practice, however, detection of significant radiogenic 40Ar signals in groundwater has been limited to a small number of studies of extremely old groundwater (>100 ka). Here we present the first high-precision (<1‰) measurements of triple Ar isotopes (40Ar, 38Ar, 36Ar) in groundwater. We introduce a model that distinguishes radiogenic 40Ar from atmospheric 40Ar by using the non-radiogenic Ar isotopes (36Ar, 38Ar) to correct for mass-dependent fractionation. Using this model, we investigate variability in radiogenic 40Ar excess (Δ40Ar) across 58 groundwater samples collected from 36 wells throughout California (USA). We find that Δ40Ar ranges from ~0‰ (the expected minimum value) to +4.2‰ across three study areas near Fresno, San Diego, and the western Mojave Desert. Based on measurements from a network of 23 scientific monitoring wells in San Diego, we find evidence for a strong dependence of Δ40Ar on aquifer lithology. We suggest that Δ40Ar is fundamentally controlled by the weathering of old K-bearing minerals and thus reflects both the degree of groundwater-rock interaction, which is related to groundwater age, and the integrated flow through different geological formations. Future studies of Late Pleistocene groundwater may benefit from high-precision triple Ar isotope measurements as a new tool to better interpret 14C- and 4He-based constraints on groundwater age and flow.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.chemgeo.2021.120458","usgsCitation":"Seltzer, A., Krantz, J.A., Ng, J., Danskin, W.R., Bekaert, D., Barry, P.H., Kimbrough, D.L., Kulongoski, J.T., and Severinghaus, J.P., 2021, The triple argon isotope composition of groundwater on ten-thousand-year timescales: Chemical Geology, v. 583, 120458, 12 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2021.120458.","productDescription":"120458, 12 p.","ipdsId":"IP-134673","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":450168,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9kx1757b","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":417210,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"583","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Seltzer, Alan 0000-0003-2870-1215","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2870-1215","contributorId":270717,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Seltzer","given":"Alan","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36711,"text":"Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":873138,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Krantz, John A.","contributorId":305541,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Krantz","given":"John","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":66250,"text":"Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry Department, Woods Hole, MA, United States of America","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":873139,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Ng, Jessica","contributorId":268304,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ng","given":"Jessica","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":38264,"text":"Scripps Institution of Oceanography","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":873140,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Danskin, Wesley R. 0000-0001-8672-5501 wdanskin@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8672-5501","contributorId":1034,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Danskin","given":"Wesley","email":"wdanskin@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":873141,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Bekaert, David 0000-0002-1062-6221","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1062-6221","contributorId":270718,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bekaert","given":"David","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36711,"text":"Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":873142,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Barry, Peter H. 0000-0002-6960-1555","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6960-1555","contributorId":218244,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Barry","given":"Peter","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":25447,"text":"University of Oxford","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":873143,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Kimbrough, David L.","contributorId":211569,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kimbrough","given":"David","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":6608,"text":"San Diego State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":873144,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Kulongoski, Justin T. 0000-0002-3498-4154 kulongos@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-4154","contributorId":173457,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kulongoski","given":"Justin","email":"kulongos@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":873145,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.","contributorId":140715,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Severinghaus","given":"Jeffrey","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":873146,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9}]}} ,{"id":70225702,"text":"sir20205137 - 2021 - Numerical modeling of groundwater flow in the crystalline-rock aquifer in the vicinity of the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-04-14T16:02:52.30844","indexId":"sir20205137","displayToPublicDate":"2021-11-19T13:45:00","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":334,"text":"Scientific Investigations Report","code":"SIR","onlineIssn":"2328-0328","printIssn":"2328-031X","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2020-5137","displayTitle":"Numerical Modeling of Groundwater Flow in the Crystalline-Rock Aquifer in the Vicinity of the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund Site, Milford, New Hampshire","title":"Numerical modeling of groundwater flow in the crystalline-rock aquifer in the vicinity of the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire","docAbstract":"In 2010, tetrachloroethylene (PCE), a chlorinated volatile organic compound, was detected in groundwater from deep (more than 300 feet below land surface) fractures in monitoring wells tapping a crystalline-rock aquifer. The aquifer underlies the Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer, a high water-producing aquifer, and the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site in Milford, New Hampshire. Between 30 and 40 residential water-supply wells are near (0.25 mile north of) the PCE-contaminated monitoring wells. Some of the residential water-supply wells are likely installed in similar rock types and formations as those of the monitoring wells installed as part of the Superfund site. As of 2020, periodic sampling by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (cooperative partners for this study) since 1996 had not detected PCE in groundwater from the residential water-supply wells. Nevertheless, understanding the vulnerability of the residential water wells to capture PCE contaminated groundwater was of concern.
A numerical groundwater flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess groundwater flow and advective transport of PCE-contaminated groundwater in the crystalline-rock aquifer of the Milford area. The model (called the area-wide model) encompasses a 26.5-square mile area to allow for more accurate computation of water fluxes near the PCE-contaminated monitoring wells and the residential water wells. Simulations with the area-wide model show that, with the 2016 configuration of residential wells, capture of PCE by the residential water wells appears unlikely for hydrologic conditions typical of 2010 based on steady-state, advective transport modeling. However, simulations also show that adding residential water wells to the north of the PCE-contaminated monitoring wells could affect the transport of PCE. Groundwater withdrawals at other adjacent wells in the overlying Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer affect advective transport in the crystalline-rock aquifer. Therefore, the potential for future changes in withdrawals in the area, as well as changes in hydrologic conditions, including groundwater recharge and streamflow amounts, should be considered in the remedial assessment process. The development of the area-wide model and linkages established by this study with previously developed Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer transport models will help facilitate the development of remedial strategies for this Superfund site.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/sir20205137","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services","usgsCitation":"Harte, P.T., 2021, Numerical modeling of groundwater flow in the crystalline-rock aquifer in the vicinity of the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2020–5137, 47 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205137.","productDescription":"Report: ix, 47 p.; Data Release","numberOfPages":"47","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-036649","costCenters":[{"id":466,"text":"New England Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":391937,"rank":6,"type":{"id":39,"text":"HTML Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/sir20205137/full","text":"Report","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}},{"id":391330,"rank":5,"type":{"id":31,"text":"Publication XML"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2020/5137/sir20205137.XML"},{"id":391326,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2020/5137/coverthb.jpg"},{"id":391329,"rank":4,"type":{"id":34,"text":"Image Folder"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2020/5137/images/"},{"id":391328,"rank":3,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F7J102FK","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"MODFLOW -2005, MODPATH, and MOC3D used for groundwater flow simulation, pathlines analysis, and solute transport in the crystalline-rock aquifer in the vicinity of the Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire"},{"id":391327,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2020/5137/sir20205137.pdf","text":"Report","size":"12.2 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIR 2020-5137"}],"country":"United States","state":"New Hampshire","city":"Milford","otherGeospatial":"Savage Municipal Water-Supply Well Superfund Site","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -71.78741455078125,\n 42.798675589844414\n ],\n [\n -71.57524108886719,\n 42.798675589844414\n ],\n [\n -71.57524108886719,\n 42.938328528472546\n ],\n [\n -71.78741455078125,\n 42.938328528472546\n ],\n [\n -71.78741455078125,\n 42.798675589844414\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Director, New England Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
10 Bearfoot Road
Northborough, MA 01532
Eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris; hereafter turkey) is an important game species that is pursued by thousands of Alabama hunters each spring. Biologists in Alabama and other parts of the southeastern U.S. believe that turkey populations have been declining for at least two decades. Managers in many state agencies and organizations believe that liberal spring bag limits and the timing of hunting seasons are contributing to this decline. We used an expert-driven approach to develop models of turkey populations that predicted the outcomes of spring harvest management alternatives. The models were based on recent research and expert judgement regarding the effects of spring hunting regulations on turkey vital rates. We then used the relationship between the expected spring density of adult males and expected harvest elicited from experts to compare the values of the alternatives over a 30-year period. Our model suggests that if later opening dates result in increased turkey productivity and increased harvest, the result will be larger turkey populations, increased harvest, and greater value to stakeholders. In 84% of deterministic projections from 27,951 different initial populations, the highest valued alternative was to open seasons later, reduce bag limits, and shorten the season. This alternative also was best in 48% of projections that included parametric uncertainty. These results were used to produce a decision-support tool, that could be used to guide decisions about spring hunting regulations for turkeys in Alabama, and updated using the results of monitoring programs. Further research is needed to more precisely estimate the causes and effects of spring hunting seasons on turkey vital rates.
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