Reliable information on water use and availability at basin and field scales are important to ensure the optimized constructive uses of available water resources. This study was conducted with the specific objective to estimate Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model across the state of South Dakota (SD), USA for the 1986–2018 (33-year) period. Validated ETa estimations (r2 = 0.91, PBIAS = −4%, and %RMSE = 11.8%) were further used to understand the crop water-use characteristics and existing historic mono-directional (increasing/decreasing) trends over the eastern (ESD) and western (WSD) regions of SD. The crop water-use characteristics indicated that the annual cropland water uses across the ESD and WSD were more or less met by the precipitation amounts in the area. The ample water supply and distribution have led to high rainfed and low percentage of irrigated cropland (~2.5%) in the state. The WSD faced greater crop-water use reductions than the ESD during drought periods. The landscape ETa responses across the state were found to be more sensitive than precipitation for the drought impact assessments. The Mann Kendall trend analysis revealed the absence of a significant trend (p > 0.05) in annual ETa at a regional scale due to the varying weather conditions in the state. However, about 12% and 9% cropland areas in the ESD and WSD, respectively, revealed a significant mono-directional trend at pixel scale ETa. Most of the pixels under significant trend showed an increasing trend that can be explained by the shift in agricultural practices, increased irrigated cropland area, higher productions, moisture regime shifts, and decreased risk of farming in the dry areas. The decreasing trend pixels were clustered in mid-eastern SD and could be the result of dynamic conversion of wetlands to croplands and decreased irrigation practices in the region. This study also demonstrates the tremendous potential and robustness of the SSEBop model, Landsat imagery, and remote sensing-based ETa modelling approaches in estimating consistent spatially distributed evapotranspiration.
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Dakota\",\"nation\":\"USA \"}}]}","volume":"35","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2020-12-27","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Bawa, Arun 0000-0003-1226-0320","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1226-0320","contributorId":336731,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bawa","given":"Arun","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":5089,"text":"South Dakota State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":900997,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Senay, Gabriel B. 0000-0002-8810-8539 senay@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8810-8539","contributorId":3114,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Senay","given":"Gabriel","email":"senay@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":223,"text":"Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center (Geography)","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":900947,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Kumar, Sandeep 0000-0002-2717-5455","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2717-5455","contributorId":336732,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kumar","given":"Sandeep","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":5089,"text":"South Dakota State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":900998,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70256757,"text":"70256757 - 2021 - Movement, recruitment, and abundance relationships of Prairie Chub: An endemic Great Plains cyprinid","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-08-15T11:08:23.453988","indexId":"70256757","displayToPublicDate":"2021-01-01T06:05:15","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":4,"text":"Other Government Series"},"title":"Movement, recruitment, and abundance relationships of Prairie Chub: An endemic Great Plains cyprinid","docAbstract":"The Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis is a poorly studied endemic cyprinid of the upper Red River basin and is listed as threatened in Texas and of greatest conservation need in Oklahoma. Hypothesized mechanisms have been proposed to explain the decline of pelagic broadcast spawning minnows including disrupted spawning cues, reduced recruitment, degraded habitat complexity, and reduced water availability and connectivity. Our study objectives were to evaluate Prairie Chub movement, identify spawn timing, and estimate abundance of Prairie Chub at locations in the upper Red River basin. We assessed Prairie Chub movement using a mark-recapture experiment with multiple tag and recapture occasions during late spring through summer (i.e., May-August) of 2019 and 2020. We tagged 5,771 Prairie Chub during summers of 2019 and 2020 and recaptured 213 fish across both summers. We conducted recapture events at approximately 2-week intervals from late May to August of 2019 and 2020. Movement by Prairie Chub was consistently greater than expected under the restricted movement paradigm. The average expected movement distance of the stationary population component was 2 m in 2019 and 3 m in 2020, whereas the expected average movement distance for the mobile population component was 42 m in 2019 and 75 m in 2020. We found no evidence of upstream bias in adult Prairie Chub movement during our study. We processed otoliths for 2,017 age-0 Prairie Chub across 7 rivers and two spawning seasons (i.e., 2019 and 2020). The likelihood of spawning and frequency of observed hatches per spawning date were higher in 2019 compared to 2020. The probability of spawning increased with increasing scaled discharge and average temperature in both 2019 and 2020. Spawning was more likely to occur earlier in the sample season though substantial spatial and temporal variation in spawning success was evident among rivers. The number of successful hatches observed per spawning day was highest in the Pease and Red rivers and lowest in the Salt Fork and South Wichita rivers for both years. We conducted 104 abundance surveys in 2019 and 2020. Our abundance estimates were consistently lower in upstream reaches, higher in downstream reaches, and more variable in mid reaches. We found Prairie Chub abundance was related to several covariates, but abundance did not vary much between years. Overall, adult Prairie Chub abundance was higher in the eastern portion of their range and increased with increasing discharge and turbidity but decreased at higher water temperatures. Adult Prairie Chub abundance had a quadratic relationship with salinity where Prairie Chub density peaked at a salinity of 10 ppt and then declined by nearly 100% when salinities reached 20 ppt. Our juvenile Prairie Chub abundance model had similar but weaker relationships with covariates compared to the adults; however, juvenile abundance was higher in 2020 compared to 2019. Our results indicate conservation of Prairie Chub and ecologically similar species would benefit from maintaining broadly connected habitats (i.e., for movement and drift). We show substantial variation in spawning patterns among rivers that has important implications for developing conservation actions. If agencies are concerned about abundance of Prairie Chub, then management agencies may want to consider the strong relationship with salinity when desalinization projects are proposed. Considering how salinity may narrow the realized niche of Prairie Chub, agencies interested in Prairie Chub persistence may want to prevent large changes in salinity concentrations in the species’ remaining habitat.
We show that long-recognized seismicity in the central Virginia seismic zone of the eastern North American intraplate setting arises primarily from tectonic processes predicted by new, fully coupled plate tectonic geodynamic models. The study leverages much new geophysical and geologic data following the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake that ruptured a steeply dipping, northwest-verging reverse fault traversed by the South Anna River. The data are primarily assembled from a flight of six fluvial terrace geomorphic markers identified and correlated on texture, relative weathering, and numeric ages including one terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) profile and 30 luminescence dates. Terrace thickness, stratigraphic age models, and incision rates downstream and upstream of the 2011 rupture are different. Long-term river incision rates of ∼25–30 m/My are superimposed on regional TCN-determined erosion rates of ∼8.5 m/My; however, there are at least 10 m of tectonically driven incision in the epicentral region at rates of ∼30–94 m/My. The inferred deformation resembles a hanging wall anticline above a blind reverse fault with a diffuse overlying carapace of minor brittle faults, an interpretation supported by seismology as well as bedrock and saprolite mapped across the epicentral region. These results are further supported by channel metrics that show nonuniform channel steepness (ksn) and a predicted steady-state channel elevation different from the actual channel elevation across the epicentral region. If all of the observed deformation is a consequence of the fault that ruptured in 2011, the recurrence interval of Mineral-sized events would be ∼5.5 ky.
","language":"English","publisher":"University of Chicago Press","doi":"10.1086/712636","usgsCitation":"Pazzaglia, F.J., Malenda, H.F., McGavick, M.L., Raup, C., Carter, M.W., Berti, C., Mahan, S.A., Nelson, M., Rittenour, T.M., Counts, R., Willenbring, J.K., Germanoski, D., Peters, S.C., and Holt, W.D., 2021, River terrace evidence of tectonic processes in the eastern North American plate interior, South Anna River, Virginia: Journal of Geology, v. 129, no. 5, p. 595-624, https://doi.org/10.1086/712636.","productDescription":"30 p.","startPage":"595","endPage":"624","ipdsId":"IP-116434","costCenters":[{"id":211,"text":"Crustal Geophysics and Geochemistry Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":245,"text":"Eastern Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":383393,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Virginia","otherGeospatial":"South Anna River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -78.486328125,\n 37.52715361723378\n ],\n [\n -76.92626953125,\n 37.52715361723378\n ],\n [\n -76.92626953125,\n 38.63618191259742\n ],\n [\n -78.486328125,\n 38.63618191259742\n ],\n [\n -78.486328125,\n 37.52715361723378\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"129","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Pazzaglia, Frank J.","contributorId":214045,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pazzaglia","given":"Frank","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":16160,"text":"Lehigh University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810449,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Malenda, Helen F. 0000-0003-4143-6460","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-6460","contributorId":211885,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Malenda","given":"Helen","email":"","middleInitial":"F.","affiliations":[{"id":38341,"text":"Colorodo School of Mines","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":true,"id":810450,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"McGavick, Matthew L.","contributorId":251735,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McGavick","given":"Matthew","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":16160,"text":"Lehigh University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810451,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Raup, Cody","contributorId":251736,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Raup","given":"Cody","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":16160,"text":"Lehigh University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810452,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Carter, Mark W. 0000-0003-0460-7638 mcarter@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0460-7638","contributorId":4808,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Carter","given":"Mark","email":"mcarter@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":245,"text":"Eastern Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":810453,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Berti, Claudio","contributorId":145598,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Berti","given":"Claudio","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":16160,"text":"Lehigh University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810454,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Mahan, Shannon A. 0000-0001-5214-7774 smahan@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5214-7774","contributorId":147159,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mahan","given":"Shannon","email":"smahan@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":810455,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Nelson, Michelle S.","contributorId":140753,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Nelson","given":"Michelle S.","affiliations":[{"id":6682,"text":"Utah State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810456,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Rittenour, Tammy M.","contributorId":140755,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Rittenour","given":"Tammy","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":6682,"text":"Utah State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810457,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Counts, Ron 0000-0002-8426-1990","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8426-1990","contributorId":222105,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Counts","given":"Ron","affiliations":[{"id":36508,"text":"University of Mississippi","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810458,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Willenbring, Jane K","contributorId":191115,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Willenbring","given":"Jane","email":"","middleInitial":"K","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":810459,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11},{"text":"Germanoski, Dru","contributorId":251743,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Germanoski","given":"Dru","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":50388,"text":"Lafayette University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810462,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":12},{"text":"Peters, Stephen C.","contributorId":149324,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Peters","given":"Stephen","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":16160,"text":"Lehigh University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810460,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":14},{"text":"Holt, William D.","contributorId":251741,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Holt","given":"William","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":36488,"text":"Stony Brook University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810461,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":15}]}} ,{"id":70219594,"text":"70219594 - 2021 - Yearly temperature fluctuations and survey speed influence road counts of wintering raptors","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-04-15T12:41:07.935225","indexId":"70219594","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-30T07:39:51","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1961,"text":"Ibis","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Yearly temperature fluctuations and survey speed influence road counts of wintering raptors","docAbstract":"Globally, evaluation of population trends is the most pressing research need for many species of conservation concern. Road counts for birds of prey are useful for monitoring long‐term population trends and examining year‐to‐year variations in abundance. We examined data from 2155 road surveys conducted from 2001 to 2018 by community scientists who recorded > 85 000 individuals of 14 species of raptors while participating in the Pennsylvania Winter Raptor Survey, in Pennsylvania, USA. We estimated abundance and population growth rates while accounting for observation error by using dynamic Bayesian state‐space models. Model estimates indicated that counts of wintering Bald Eagles Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Red‐shouldered Hawks Buteo lineatus and Black Vulture Coragyps atratus increased over the course of the study. Counts of Rough‐legged Buzzard Buteo lagopus, Red‐tailed Hawk Buteo jamaicensis, Northern Harrier Circus hudsonius, Turkey Vulture Cathartes aura and American Kestrel Falco sparverius varied more (CV > 5.0) over the duration of the study than other species did. Higher winter temperatures were associated with increases in counts of species whose local populations are partially migratory (American Kestrel and Red‐tailed Hawk), and with lower counts of a long‐distance arctic migrant – Rough‐legged Buzzard. Counts of these species were therefore correlated such that more American Kestrels and Red‐tailed Hawks were counted during years when Rough‐legged Buzzards were less frequently seen. Generally, the number of individuals counted declined as survey speed increased. A general rule for road counts therefore seems to be ‘slower is better’, consistent with past recommendations that observers travel at a speed < 40 km/h during road counts. Our study highlights the utility of road surveys and advances analytical approaches to monitor raptors.
Although the round goby Neogobius melanostomus has become established throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes, a multi-model inference (MMI) approach toward characterizing round goby growth in the Laurentian Great Lakes has yet to applied using otolith-derived data. Further, spatial variation in round goby growth among lakes has yet to be investigated. For each sex, growth of round gobies at three locations of Lake Michigan and four locations of Lake Huron was investigated using MMI, based on information theory, with three candidate growth models. These three growth models included the von Bertalanffy model, the Gompertz model, and the logistic model. The von Bertalanffy model was most often selected (13 out of 14 cases) as the ‘best’ model among all candidate models, followed by the logistic model. None of the best models were strongly supported as a ‘clear winner’. At least one additional model was supported by the data in each of the 14 cases, indicating that there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in model selection. When model selection uncertainty was ignored, standard errors of growth parameters were underestimated in 8 of the 14 cases. Overall, round gobies in Lake Michigan attained larger sizes at age and grew faster than in Lake Huron. Based on multi-model inference, our study provided a robust assessment of round goby growth, which will be essential in better managing sport fisheries in both lakes.
There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge engineering application in southern California. Catalogs of simulated ground motions representing a 200,000-year forecast are selected from the Southern California Earthquake Center CyberShake version 15.12 database for five sites in Southern California (~20,000 unscaled ground motions per site). They are used in Non-Linear Time History Analysis (NLTHA) of four Ordinary Standard Bridge structures. For each site, these data are used to obtain simulation-based Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) hazard curves. These are compared against EDP hazard curves that are constructed using conventional methods based on empirical models, i.e., using recorded ground motions through Incremental Dynamic Analysis and integration over the Intensity Measure (IM) hazard curve. The two sets of simulation-based and conventional EDP hazard curves are compared at various return periods. To further account for the differences between simulated and recorded ground motions, direct comparisons are also made between IM hazard curves for simulated and recorded catalogs, as well as the EDP versus IM data obtained from NLTHA of the bridges. We observe that CyberShake simulates motions that yield similar EDP values compared to empirical data for shorter return periods. For longer return periods, however, EDPs from the simulation-based analysis tend to be lower than the EDPs obtained from utilizing recorded ground motions for short-period bridges, while the opposite is the case for long-period bridges. It is recommended that validation efforts go beyond IM levels and also include comparisons of the relations between IMs and EDPs. Finally, site-specific relations are proposed that correlate the ratio between the two types of EDPs (simulation-based and conventional) with the hazard level, shallow site condition, and site basin depth.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106533","usgsCitation":"Fayaz, J., Rezaeian, S., and Zareian, F., 2021, Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges: Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering Journal, v. 141, 106533,12 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106533.","productDescription":"106533,12 p.","ipdsId":"IP-124793","costCenters":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":453982,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/24h5p4cj","text":"External Repository"},{"id":381938,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"141","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Fayaz, Jawad","contributorId":217356,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Fayaz","given":"Jawad","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":34134,"text":"UC Irvine","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":807631,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Rezaeian, Sanaz 0000-0001-7589-7893 srezaeian@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7589-7893","contributorId":4395,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rezaeian","given":"Sanaz","email":"srezaeian@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":807632,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Zareian, Farzin","contributorId":152544,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Zareian","given":"Farzin","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6641,"text":"University of California at Merced","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":807633,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70217202,"text":"70217202 - 2021 - Correcting the historical record for Kīlauea Volcano's 1832, 1868, and 1877 summit eruptions","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-01-13T13:02:23.49683","indexId":"70217202","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-30T07:00:39","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2499,"text":"Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Correcting the historical record for Kīlauea Volcano's 1832, 1868, and 1877 summit eruptions","docAbstract":"Three fissure eruptions are known to have occurred along the northeastern edge of Kīlauea's summit caldera in the 19th century—in the years 1832, 1868, and 1877. Modern portrayal of these eruptions on maps and in written sources indicates that the 1832 eruption was from a fissure on the side of the Poliokeawe scarp south of Byron Ledge, the 1868 eruption was from a fissure on the southern wall of Kīlauea Iki Crater and fed a lava flow that covered the bottom of that crater, and the eruption in 1877 occurred on the floor of Keanakākoʻi Crater, as well as from a fissure of uncertain location on the east wall of the caldera below Byron Ledge. New geologic mapping and a review of historical documents and maps contradict these views. We find, instead, that: (1) the 1832 eruption discharged from a fissure on Byron Ledge (not Poliokeawe scarp), from another fissure on the southwestern wall of Kīlauea Iki Crater, and from at least one fissure along the east side of Kīlauea caldera below Byron Ledge; (2) the 1868 lava erupted through the floor of Kīlauea Iki Crater, not from a fissure in its southwestern wall; and (3) the 1877 lava erupted from Kīlauea Iki Crater's mid-wall fissure (until now believed to have opened in 1868), from the fissure previously assigned an 1832 date on Poliokeawe escarpment, and from a precisely relocated vent on the northeastern wall of the caldera. Finally, no conclusive first-hand accounts of the late 19th century eruption in Keanakākoʻi Crater were identified, leaving in doubt the often-inferred 1877 date for this event. Possible alternative dates include 1868, 1879, and 1881.
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.
Recent snow droughts associated with unusually warm winters are predicted to increase in frequency and affect species dependent upon snowpack for winter survival. Changes in populations of some cold‐adapted species have been attributed to heat stress or indirect effects on habitat from unusually warm summers, but little is known about the importance of winter weather to population dynamics and how responses to snow drought vary among sympatric species. We evaluated changes in abundance of hoary marmots (Marmota caligata) over a period that included a year of record‐low snowpack to identify mechanisms associated with weather and snowpack. To consider interspecies comparisons, our analysis used the same a priori model set as a concurrent study that evaluated responses of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) to weather and snowpack in the same study area of North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA. We hypothesized that marmot abundance reflected mechanisms related to heat stress, cold stress, cold exposure without an insulating snowpack, snowpack duration, atmospheric moisture, growing‐season precipitation, or select combinations of these mechanisms. Changes in marmot abundances included a 74% decline from 2007 to 2016 and were best explained by an interaction of chronic dryness with exposure to acute cold without snowpack in winter. Physiological stress during hibernation from exposure to cold, dry air appeared to be the most likely mechanism of change in marmot abundance. Alternative mechanisms associated with changes to winter weather, including early emergence from hibernation or altered vegetation dynamics, had less support. A post hoc assessment of vegetative phenology and productivity did not support vegetation dynamics as a primary driver of marmot abundance across years. Although marmot and pika abundances were explained by strikingly similar models over periods of many years, details of the mechanisms involved likely differ between species because pika abundances increased in areas where marmots declined. Such differences may lead to diverging geographic distributions of these species as global change continues.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/ece3.7126","usgsCitation":"Johnston, A.N., Christophersen, R.G., Beever, E.A., and Ransom, J.I., 2021, Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought: Ecology and Evolution, v. 11, no. 3, p. 1264-1279, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7126.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"1264","endPage":"1279","ipdsId":"IP-108644","costCenters":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":453991,"rank":1,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7126","text":"External Repository"},{"id":436605,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9K0QEDT","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Hoary Marmot Abundance in North Cascades National Park 2007-2008 and 2016-2017"},{"id":385448,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Washington","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -121.86035156249999,\n 47.60616304386874\n ],\n [\n -118.5205078125,\n 47.60616304386874\n ],\n [\n -118.5205078125,\n 48.980216985374994\n ],\n [\n -121.86035156249999,\n 48.980216985374994\n ],\n [\n -121.86035156249999,\n 47.60616304386874\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"11","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Johnston, Aaron N. 0000-0003-4659-0504","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4659-0504","contributorId":201768,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnston","given":"Aaron","email":"","middleInitial":"N.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":815106,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Christophersen, Roger G","contributorId":257828,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Christophersen","given":"Roger","email":"","middleInitial":"G","affiliations":[{"id":36189,"text":"National Park Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":815107,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Beever, Erik A. 0000-0002-9369-486X ebeever@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-486X","contributorId":2934,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Beever","given":"Erik","email":"ebeever@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":815108,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Ransom, Jason I.","contributorId":139841,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ransom","given":"Jason","email":"","middleInitial":"I.","affiliations":[{"id":6924,"text":"National Park Service, Upper Columbia Basin Network","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":815109,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70236888,"text":"70236888 - 2021 - A ground‐motion prediction model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Greece","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-09-21T12:17:14.197561","indexId":"70236888","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-29T07:14:39","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1135,"text":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","onlineIssn":"1943-3573","printIssn":"0037-1106","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A ground‐motion prediction model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Greece","docAbstract":"Using a recently completed database of uniformly processed strong‐motion data recorded in Greece, we derive a ground‐motion prediction model (GMPM) for horizontal‐component peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and 5% damped pseudoacceleration response spectra, at 105 periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The equations were developed by modifying a global GMPM, to account for more rapid attenuation and weaker magnitude scaling in the Greek ground motions than in the global GMPM. Our GMPM is calibrated using the Greek data for distances up to 300 km, magnitudes from 4.0 to 7.0, and time‐averaged 30 m shear‐wave velocities from 150 to
Lithium concentrations in untreated groundwater from 1464 public-supply wells and 1676 domestic-supply wells distributed across 33 principal aquifers in the United States were evaluated for spatial variations and possible explanatory factors. Concentrations nationwide ranged from <1 to 396 μg/L (median of 8.1) for public supply wells and <1 to 1700 μg/L (median of 6 μg/L) for domestic supply wells. For context, lithium concentrations were compared to a Health Based Screening Level (HBSL, 10 μg/L) and a drinking-water only threshold (60 μg/L). These thresholds were exceeded in 45% and 9% of samples from public-supply wells and in 37% and 6% from domestic-supply wells, respectively. However, exceedances and median concentrations ranged broadly across geographic regions and principal aquifers. Concentrations were highest in arid regions and older groundwater, particularly in unconsolidated clastic aquifers and sandstones, and lowest in carbonate-rock aquifers, consistent with differences in lithium abundance among major lithologies and rock weathering extent. The median concentration for public-supply wells in the unconsolidated clastic High Plains aquifer (central United States) was 24.6 μg/L; 24% of the wells exceeded the drinking-water only threshold and 86% exceeded the HBSL. Other unconsolidated clastic aquifers in the arid West had exceedance rates comparable to the High Plains aquifer, whereas no public supply wells in the Biscayne aquifer (southern Florida) exceeded either threshold, and the highest concentration in that aquifer was 2.6 μg/L. Multiple lines of evidence indicate natural sources for the lithium concentrations; however, anthropogenic sources may be important in the future because of the rapid increase of lithium battery use and subsequent disposal. Geochemical models demonstrate that extensive evaporation, mineral dissolution, cation exchange, and mixing with geothermal waters or brines may account for the observed lithium and associated constituent concentrations, with the latter two processes as major contributing factors.
Observations of crustal stress orientation from the regional inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms often conflict with those from borehole breakouts, possibly indicating local stress heterogeneity, either laterally or with depth. To investigate this heterogeneity, we compiled SHmax estimates from previous studies for 57 near‐vertical boreholes with measured breakout azimuths across the Los Angeles region. We identified subsets of earthquake focal mechanisms from established earthquake catalogs centered around each borehole with various criteria for maximum depth and maximum lateral distance from the borehole. Each subset was independently inverted for 3‐D stress orientation and corresponding SHmax probability distributions, then compared with the corresponding borehole breakout‐derived estimate. We find good agreement when both methods sample the basement stress (breakouts are close to the sediment‐basement interface), or when both methods sample the mid‐basin stress (sufficient earthquakes are present within a sedimentary basin). Along sedimentary basin margins, in contrast, we find acceptable agreement only when focal mechanisms are limited to shallow and close earthquakes, implying short‐length‐scale heterogeneity of <20 km. While the region as a whole shows evidence of both lateral and vertical stress orientation heterogeneity, we find a more homogeneous stress state within basement rock, over length scales of 1–35 km. These results reconcile the apparently conflicting observations of short‐length‐scale heterogeneity observed in boreholes, which sample primarily the basins, with the relative homogeneity of stress inferred from focal mechanisms, which sample primarily the basement, and imply distinct regimes for the appropriate use of each type of stress indicator.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/2020JB020817","usgsCitation":"Luttrell, K., and Hardebeck, J.L., 2021, A unified model of crustal stress heterogeneity from borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms: JGR Solid Earth, v. 126, no. 2, e2020JB020817, 13 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020817.","productDescription":"e2020JB020817, 13 p.","ipdsId":"IP-121662","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":454007,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb020817","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":384262,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"126","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-02-05","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Luttrell, Karen 0000-0003-1405-1207","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1405-1207","contributorId":254967,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Luttrell","given":"Karen","affiliations":[{"id":5115,"text":"Louisiana State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":811558,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hardebeck, Jeanne L. 0000-0002-6737-7780 jhardebeck@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-7780","contributorId":841,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hardebeck","given":"Jeanne","email":"jhardebeck@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":811559,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70219488,"text":"70219488 - 2021 - Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-10-26T16:09:06.790716","indexId":"70219488","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-26T06:49:09","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1839,"text":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors","docAbstract":"Assessing long‐term shifts in faunal assemblages is important to understand the consequences of ongoing global environmental change. One approach to assess drivers of assemblage changes is to identify the traits associated with synchronous shifts in count trends among species. Our research identified traits influencing trends in 73 years of count data on migrating raptors recorded in the north‐eastern USA.
Pennsylvania, USA.
1946–2018.
Birds of prey/raptors.
Migrating raptors were counted during autumn, following a standardized protocol. We used a hierarchical breakpoint model to identify when count trends shifted and to assess the role of traits in driving these trends before and after the breakpoint. Specifically, we quantified the probability of the direction (PD) of an effect of body mass, habitat or dietary specialization, migratory behaviour and susceptibility to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) on count trends.
We documented an assemblage‐wide mean shift in count trends of migrating raptors in 1974. In general, species that exhibited negative count trends before the breakpoint exhibited positive count trends afterwards. We found that traits associated with resource use (diet and habitat specialization) had high probabilities of affecting count trends, pre‐ and post‐breakpoint (> 90%). Moreover, the direction of their effects differed during both periods. Unexpectedly, other traits we evaluated, including DDT susceptibility, had relatively weaker associations with count trends.
Trait‐based frameworks have promise for testing generalized assumptions about drivers of population trajectories. Historically, DDT was considered a key driver of changes in raptor population trends. However, our analysis suggests that other factors were also relevant. Moreover, the positive association between count trends and generalist behaviour depended on the temporal context. This result has implications for other settings where demographic trends can be linked to traits and help to identify drivers of biodiversity change.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/geb.13242","usgsCitation":"Dumandan, P.K., Bildstein, K.L., Goodrich, L.J., Zaiats, A., Caughlin, T., and Katzner, T., 2021, Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors: Global Ecology and Biogeography, v. 30, no. 3, p. 640-650, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13242.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"640","endPage":"650","ipdsId":"IP-118350","costCenters":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":384958,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United 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Contact between poultry and wild birds is a key driver of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a process that allows for host-switching and accelerated reassortment, diversification and spread of virus between otherwise unconnected regions. This study addresses questions relevant to the spillover of HPAI at a transmission hotspot: what is the nature of the wild bird-poultry interface in Egypt and adjacent Black Sea-Mediterranean countries and how has this contributed to outbreaks occurring worldwide? Using a spatio-temporal model of infection risk informed by satellite tracking of waterfowl and viral phylogenetics, this study identified ecological conditions that contribute to spillover in this understudied region. Results indicated that multiple ducks (Northern Shoveler and Northern Pintail) hosted segments that shared ancestry with HPAI H5 from both clade 2.2.1 and clade 2.3.4 supporting the role of Anseriformes in linking viral populations in East Asia and Africa over large-distances. Quantifying the interface between wild ducks and H5N1-infected poultry revealed an increasing interface in late winter peaking in early spring when ducks expanded their range before migration, with key differences in the timing of poultry contact risk between local and long-distance migrants.
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Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data yield several millimeters of static offsets out to ∼100 km from the rupture and up to ∼0.1 m of near‐field crustal deformation. We combine the GPS and InSAR data with long‐period regional seismic waveforms to derive models of kinematic slip and afterslip. We find that the coseismic rupture is complex, likely involving up to 2 m combined left‐lateral strike slip and normal slip on a previously unidentified ∼south‐southeast‐striking fault. This slip is predominantly left‐lateral strike slip, different from the dominant east‐northeast–west‐northwest normal faulting of the region. At least one ∼northeast‐trending fault, likely associated with the Trans‐Challis fault system, is inferred to have accommodated a few decimeters of right‐lateral afterslip, consistent with vigorous aftershock activity at depth along northeast‐trending lineations.
","language":"English","publisher":"Seismological Society of America","doi":"10.1785/0220200315","usgsCitation":"Pollitz, F., Hammond, W.C., and Wicks, C., 2021, Rupture process of the M6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake inferred from seismic waveform and geodetic data: Seismological Research Letters, v. 92, no. 2A, p. 699-709, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200315.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"699","endPage":"709","ipdsId":"IP-124061","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":481877,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Idaho","city":"Stanley","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -115.45,\n 44.5\n ],\n [\n -115.45,\n 43.99\n ],\n [\n -114.5,\n 43.99\n ],\n [\n -114.5,\n 44.5\n ],\n [\n -115.45,\n 44.5\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"92","issue":"2A","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2020-12-23","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Pollitz, Frederick 0000-0002-4060-2706 fpollitz@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4060-2706","contributorId":139578,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pollitz","given":"Frederick","email":"fpollitz@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":926887,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hammond, William C.","contributorId":73735,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hammond","given":"William","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":926888,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wicks, Charles 0000-0002-0809-1328","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0809-1328","contributorId":9023,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wicks","given":"Charles","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":926889,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70217371,"text":"70217371 - 2021 - The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-01-20T14:17:42.716823","indexId":"70217371","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-23T08:15:48","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1801,"text":"Geomorphology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches","docAbstract":"The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both short-term climate variability and long-term climate impacts across the varied coastal settings of California. This study is the first to quantify the coastal response for one of the strongest El Niño events in the historical record across the coast of California through the analysis of nearshore wave conditions and seasonal beach changes for 8000 shore-normal transects. Through the analysis of pre- and post- El Niño LiDAR, we find that that central and northern California experienced the most sandy beach shoreline retreat/erosion during the El Niño winter, with a mean of 45.7 m of erosion (96% of beaches) in central California, a mean of 25.5 m of erosion (89% of beaches) in northern California, and a mean of 9.7 m of erosion (79% of beaches) in southern California. These patterns are compared to LiDAR and satellite-derived long-term shoreline change rates, in which southern California and central California beaches are moderately accreting, while northern California is eroding at an average of 79 cm per year. A significant correlation is found between cumulative wave energy flux and shoreline change during the El Niño winter across the state of California. Although local beach response during the El Niño winter was highly variable, heightened erosion was observed at river mouths and on the southern side of structures impeding littoral drift, with accretion observed on the northern side of these structures. These erosional patterns, driven by a northerly wave direction anomaly, contrast those of classic El Niño events such as the 1982–.83 and 1997–98 events, where more southerly storm tracks and southerly wave directions were key factors controlling shoreline behavior, and may indicate a shift in El Niño storm patterns driven by climate change.
Obstacle marks are instream bedforms, typically composed of an upstream frontal scour hole and a downstream sediment accumulation in the vicinity of an obstacle. Local scouring at infrastructure (e.g. bridge piers) is a well‐studied phenomenon in hydraulic engineering, while less attention is given to the time‐dependent evolution of frontal scour holes at instream boulders and their geometric relations (depth to width, and length ratio). Furthermore, a comparison between laboratory studies and field observations is rare. Therefore, the morphodynamic importance of such scour features to fluvial sediment transport and morphological change is largely unknown. In this study, obstacle marks at boulder‐like obstructions were physically modelled in 30 unscaled process‐focused flume experiments (runtime per experiment ≥ 5760 min) at a range of flows (subcritical, clear‐water conditions, emergent and submerged water levels) and boundary conditions designed to represent the field setting (i.e. obstacle tilting, and limited thickness of the alluvial layer). Additionally, geometries of scour holes at 90 in‐situ boulders (diameter ≥ 1 m) located in a 50‐km segment of the Colorado River in Marble Canyon (AZ) were measured from a 1 m‐resolution digital elevation model. Flume experiments reveal similar evolution of local scouring, irrespective of hydraulic conditions, controlled by the scour incision, whereas the thickness of the alluvial layer and obstacle tilting into the evolving frontal scour hole limit incision. Three temporal evolution phases—(1) rapid incision, (2) decreasing incision, and (3) scour widening—are identified based on statistical analysis of spatiotemporal bed elevation time series. A quantitative model is presented that mechanistically predicts enlargement in local scour length and width based on (1) scour depth, (2) the inclination of scour slopes, and (3) the planform area of the frontal scour hole bottom. The comparison of field observations and laboratory results demonstrates scale invariance of geometry, which implies similitude of processes and form rather than equifinality.
One of the challenges in assessing temporal and spatial aspects of landslide hazard using process-based models is estimating model input parameters, especially in areas where limited measurements of soil and rock properties are available. In an effort to simplify and streamline parameter estimation, development of a simple, rapid approach to sensitivity analysis relies on field measurements of landslide characteristics, especially slope and depth. This method is demonstrated for a case study in Puerto Rico where widespread destruction resulted from tens of thousands of debris flows induced by Hurricanes Irma and María in Puerto Rico in 2017. The approach can be applied to estimation of shear strength as well as hydrologic parameters that control infiltration and flow of water in the subsurface and ultimately the timing of landslides resulting from heavy rainfall. Results narrow the possible range of cohesion and friction parameters as well as hydraulic conductivity and other soil water parameters by counting the fraction of field observations that can be explained by each combination of parameters. For cases studied in Puerto Rico, the method identified combinations of cohesion and friction values that explain more than 80–90% of observed landslide source areas.
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statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard","docAbstract":"Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard assessment in areas that have not been studied in detail. The following review discusses more than a decade of development of statistical approaches to studying submarine landslides. Landslides were previously viewed together with other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and fires, as a phenomenon whose size distribution obeys an inverse power law. Inverse power law distributions are the result of self-organized avalanche processes, in which the final hazard size cannot be predicted at the onset of the disturbance. We find that volume and area distributions of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic continental slope and along nine other margins worldwide do not follow an inverse power law. Rigorous statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments. Lognormal distributions can be simulated by assuming that the area of slope failure depends on earthquake magnitude, in other words, failure occurs simultaneously over the area affected by horizontal ground shaking and does not cascade from nucleating sources. Therefore, the maximum landslide size can be predicted from the earthquake magnitude and the distance from the rupturing fault. Moreover, earthquakes <~M4.5 cannot generate significant submarine landslides. We further demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from these lognormal landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. In addition to hazard estimation, scaling relationships can yield insights on the physical processes associated with landslide failure. For example, the log-log relationship between volume and area of landslide scars in siliciclastic margins is observed to be almost linear implying that most landslides are translational. Carbonate margins, in contrast, show a power-law distribution of scar volumes and their volume to area relationship is ~1.3. These results suggest that landslides in carbonate margins are governed by the random distributions of existing fissures, and they act like rock falls on land. Although earthquakes are the principal trigger of submarine landslides, the effects of earthquake frequency on slope stability can be counterintuitive. The average size of landslide scars decreases non-linearly with increasing frequency of earthquakes and increases with increasing sedimentation rate. The effect is interpreted as evidence for densification and shear strength increase of margin sediment, induced by repeated seismic shaking.
","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"language":"English","publisher":"Springer Link","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-60196-6_23","usgsCitation":"ten Brink, U., and Geist, E.L., 2021, On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard, chap. of Understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk, p. 329-341, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60196-6_23.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"329","endPage":"341","ipdsId":"IP-118112","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":678,"text":"Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":387818,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2020-12-22","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"ten Brink, Uri S. 0000-0001-6858-3001 utenbrink@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6858-3001","contributorId":127560,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"ten Brink","given":"Uri S.","email":"utenbrink@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":186,"text":"Coastal and Marine Geology Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":678,"text":"Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":820876,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Geist, Eric L. 0000-0003-0611-1150","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0611-1150","contributorId":15543,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Geist","given":"Eric","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":820877,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70224290,"text":"70224290 - 2021 - Identifying information gaps in predicting winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-07-07T13:40:08.78752","indexId":"70224290","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-22T07:38:01","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3624,"text":"Transactions of the American Fisheries Society","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Identifying information gaps in predicting winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon","docAbstract":"The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the availability of critical habitat during winter months in six estuaries. Large information gaps, especially related to critical estuarine habitat for juveniles, hinder recovery efforts to protect these habitats and assess risks from emerging threats. Using Apalachicola Bay, Florida, as a model system, we developed and analyzed a preliminary Bayesian network model so that we could identify knowledge gaps (i.e., where expert knowledge was lacking) and data gaps (i.e., where data were unavailable) that limit the ability to assess the quantity of critical estuarine habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon. The model hypothesized habitat availability per winter month in estuarine habitat under alternative scenarios of river discharge and length of the winter foraging season. A search for geospatial data sets revealed that the largest gap involved salinity, temperature, and oxygen (i.e., water condition) monitoring data, with data available only for Apalachicola Bay. For the Apalachicola Bay model, data gaps prevented the development of 53% of water condition geospatial data sets and a sensitivity analysis showed that water condition data most limited the ability to predict habitat availability. Expert knowledge was low, and conditional certainty scores showed that the relationships with the lowest certainty were abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Reducing information gaps could aid the development of a model that is appropriate for informing management. Future efforts could prioritize the expansion of water monitoring within critical habitat estuaries and predicting abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Bayesian network models can easily incorporate prior and new information for complex systems. Thus, our model could be updated as future research and monitoring efforts close these information gaps.
Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and variability in mountain snowpack is limited by the relatively short and strongly temperature forced observational record. Motivated by the urgent need to better understand snowpack dynamics in a long-term, spatially coherent framework, here we examine snow-growth relationships in western North American tree-ring chronologies. We present an extensive network of snow-sensitive proxy data to support high space/time resolution paleosnow reconstruction, quantify and interpret the type and spatial density of snow related signals in tree-ring records, and examine the potential for regional bias in the tree-ring based reconstruction of different snow drought types (dry versus warm). Our results indicate three distinct snow-growth relationships in tree-ring chronologies: moisture-limited snow proxies that include a spring temperature signal, moisture-limited snow proxies lacking a spring temperature signal, and energy-limited snow proxies. Each proxy type is based on distinct physiological tree-growth mechanisms related to topographic and climatic site conditions, and provides unique information on mountain snowpack dynamics that can be capitalized upon within a statistical reconstruction framework. This work provides a platform and foundational background required for the accelerated production of high-quality annually-resolved snowpack reconstructions from regional to high (<12 km) spatial scales in western North America, and by extension, will support an improved understanding of the vulnerability of snowmelt-derived water resources to natural variability and future climate warming.
","language":"English","publisher":"IOP Science","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/abd5de","usgsCitation":"Coulthard, B.L., Anchukaitis, K.J., Pederson, G.T., Cook, E.R., Littell, J., and Smith, D.J., 2021, Snowpack signals in North American tree rings: Environmental Research Letters, v. 16, no. 3, 034037, 13 p., https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd5de.","productDescription":"034037, 13 p.","ipdsId":"IP-122302","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":454037,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd5de","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":383252,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"16","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-02-26","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Coulthard, Bethany L.","contributorId":250711,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Coulthard","given":"Bethany","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":37455,"text":"University of Nevada","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810246,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Anchukaitis, Kevin J.","contributorId":195005,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Anchukaitis","given":"Kevin","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":810247,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Pederson, Gregory T. 0000-0002-6014-1425 gpederson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6014-1425","contributorId":3106,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pederson","given":"Gregory","email":"gpederson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":810248,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Cook, Edward R","contributorId":218752,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Cook","given":"Edward","email":"","middleInitial":"R","affiliations":[{"id":17701,"text":"Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810249,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Littell, Jeremy S. 0000-0002-5302-8280","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5302-8280","contributorId":205907,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Littell","given":"Jeremy","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":107,"text":"Alaska Climate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":810250,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Smith, Dan J.","contributorId":250712,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Smith","given":"Dan","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":16829,"text":"University of Victoria","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":810251,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70218733,"text":"70218733 - 2021 - Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-03-10T13:13:17.025736","indexId":"70218733","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-22T07:10:16","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":7501,"text":"JGR Solid Earth","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models","docAbstract":"I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the mainshock. The synthetic sequences are generated from generalized “physical” triggering models, optionally superimposed on background heterogeneity that controls the level of clustering. The statistical Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model performs relatively better the more clustered the direct aftershocks, while the true generalized “physical” model performs relatively worse. Real aftershocks appear to be sufficiently clustered to allow ETAS to perform as well as or better than physical models such as Coulomb stress triggering. A likely cause of the spatial clustering of direct aftershocks is heterogeneity of the background physical conditions, which typically is not modeled in physics‐based forecasts. This implies that the forecast performance of physical models could be substantially improved through a better understanding of the interaction between earthquake stress changes and variable background physical conditions such as stress state, fault strength, and fluid pressure.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/2020JB020824","usgsCitation":"Hardebeck, J.L., 2021, Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models: JGR Solid Earth, v. 126, no. 2, e2020JB020824, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020824.","productDescription":"e2020JB020824, 16 p.","ipdsId":"IP-117739","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":384260,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"126","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-01-27","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hardebeck, Jeanne L. 0000-0002-6737-7780","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-7780","contributorId":254964,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hardebeck","given":"Jeanne","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":811557,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70218478,"text":"70218478 - 2021 - In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-03-01T14:49:47.347398","indexId":"70218478","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-21T08:42:00","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1757,"text":"Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica","docAbstract":"The Costa Rican convergent margin has been considered a type erosive margin, with erosional models suggesting average losses up to −153 km3/km/m.y. However, three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program data collected offshore the Osa Peninsula images accretionary structures and vertical motions that conflict with the forearc basal erosion model. Here we integrate such data to do an in‐situ accounting of material transfer at the plate boundary across the outermost 10 km of the forearc, characterized by active and inactive megathrusts. Our in‐situ budget finds an approximate balance between sediment recycling via accretion and underplating, 0.7–2.3 km3/km/m.y., and basal erosion, 0.7 km3/km/m.y., while subducting sediment volumes, 7.8 km3/km/m.y., greatly outpace either material transfer volumes. These budget results differ significantly from published estimates based on simple proxies of trench axis deflection and slope subsidence. These budget results are the summation of thin incoming hemipelagic sediments that variably accrete along the deformation front, underplating of hemipelagic sediments on the upthrown‐side and basal erosion on the downthrown‐side of active plate bending faulting landward of the trench axis, and sediment subduction primarily composed of pelagic sediments.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/2020GC009190","usgsCitation":"Edwards, J., Kluesner, J.W., Silver, E., Lauer, R., Bangs, N., and Boston, B., 2021, In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, v. 22, e2020GC009190, 13 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009190.","productDescription":"e2020GC009190, 13 p.","ipdsId":"IP-106898","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488380,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doaj.org/article/6804fd0b6f724ecb9c8aad62cdccfc0b","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":383681,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Costa Rica","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -82.9852294921875,\n 8.597315884206026\n ],\n [\n -85.15502929687499,\n 10.487811882056695\n ],\n [\n -86.23168945312499,\n 9.56283423106296\n ],\n [\n -83.6883544921875,\n 7.656553242193619\n ],\n [\n -82.9852294921875,\n 8.597315884206026\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"22","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2021-02-17","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Edwards, Joel","contributorId":252933,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Edwards","given":"Joel","affiliations":[{"id":27155,"text":"University of California Santa Cruz","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":811162,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Kluesner, Jared W. 0000-0003-1701-8832 jkluesner@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1701-8832","contributorId":201261,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kluesner","given":"Jared","email":"jkluesner@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":811163,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Silver, Eli","contributorId":252934,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Silver","given":"Eli","affiliations":[{"id":27155,"text":"University of California Santa Cruz","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":811164,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Lauer, Rachel","contributorId":252935,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lauer","given":"Rachel","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":16660,"text":"University of Calgary","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":811165,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Bangs, Nathan","contributorId":252936,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bangs","given":"Nathan","affiliations":[{"id":50475,"text":"UTIG","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":811166,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Boston, Brian","contributorId":252937,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Boston","given":"Brian","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":40272,"text":"Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":811167,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70229429,"text":"70229429 - 2021 - Canada goose survival and recovery rates in urban and rural areas of Iowa, USA","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-03-08T12:50:04.301788","indexId":"70229429","displayToPublicDate":"2020-12-21T06:46:00","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2508,"text":"Journal of Wildlife Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Canada goose survival and recovery rates in urban and rural areas of Iowa, USA","docAbstract":"Once extirpated from much of their North American range, temperate-breeding Canada geese (Branta canadensis maxima) have reached high abundance. As a result, focus has shifted from restoration to managing harvest and addressing human-goose conflict. Conflict persists or is increasing in urban areas throughout the Mississippi Flyway. Managers need more information regarding demographic rates to determine how hunting affects geese breeding in urban areas and what management actions may be required to achieve management goals. We estimated survival, dead recovery, live recapture, and fidelity probabilities using data from 77,872 Canada geese banded in Iowa, USA, during 1999–2019 using Burnham joint live-dead band recovery models. Factors predicted to affect parameters in candidate models included age (juvenile, subadult, adult), banding site (urban, rural), time, trend, harvest regulation index, and winter severity index. We predicted Canada geese banded in urban areas would have higher survival and lower dead recovery rates than geese banded at rural sites. The top model indicated support for age and banding site effects, and trends in survival and recovery rate (Brownie parameterization). Adult survival was similar for urban (0.75; range = 0.60–0.92) and rural (0.75; range = 0.66–0.82) geese and relatively constant across years. Mean juvenile survival was lower in urban (0.74; range = 0.48–0.93) than rural (0.85; range = 0.68–0.92) areas. Survival increased for urban-banded juveniles and recovery rates increased during liberalization of harvest regulations and decreased after regulations stabilized. Recovery rates of subadults increased for the urban and rural groups. Our results suggest Canada geese breeding in urban areas contribute to harvest and specialized regulations can affect these populations. Harvest regulations in place during our analysis may not have reached a threshold required to observe substantial changes in survival. Current human-goose conflict in urban areas suggests survival has not decreased to a level required to completely address conflict via reduction in goose abundance. Managers may consider additional liberalization of harvest regulations and monitoring via banding to determine to what degree hunter harvest contributes to reducing human-goose conflict and what additional management actions will be required to achieve goals. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.