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Previously, however, there has been no way to quantify the probability that wildlife dispersed over the seascape would be exposed to spilled oil. Polar bears, the apical predator of the arctic, are widely dispersed near the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean, an area also undergoing considerable hydrocarbon exploration and development. We used 15,308 satellite locations from 194 radiocollared polar bears to estimate the probability that polar bears could be exposed to hypothetical oil spills. We used a true 2 dimensional Gausian kernel density estimator, to estimate the number of bears likely to occur in each 1.00 km2 cell of a grid superimposed over near shore areas surrounding 2 oil production facilities: the existing Northstar oil production facility, and the proposed offshore site for the Liberty production facility. We estimated the standard errors of bear numbers per cell with bootstrapping. Simulated oil spill footprints for September and October, the times during which we hypothesized effects of an oil-spill would be worst, were estimated using real wind and current data collected between 1980 and 1996. We used ARC/Info software to calculate overlap (numbers of bears oiled) between simulated oil-spill footprints and polar bear grid-cell values. Numbers of bears potentially oiled by a hypothetical 5912 barrel spill (the largest spill thought probable from a pipeline breach) ranged from 0 to 27 polar bears for September open water conditions, and from 0 to 74 polar bears in October mixed ice conditions. Median numbers oiled by the 5912 barrel hypothetical spill from the Liberty simulation in September and October were 1 and 3 bears, equivalent values for the Northstar simulation were 3 and 11 bears. In October, 75% of trajectories from the 5912 barrel simulated spill at Liberty oiled 9 or fewer bears while 75% of the trajectories affected 20 or fewer polar bears when we simulated an October spill at the Northstar site. Northstar Island is nearer the active ice flaw zone than Liberty. Simulations suggested that oil spilled at Northstar would spread more effectively and more consistently into surrounding areas. Also, polar bear densities are consistently higher near Northstar. Oil spills simulated for the Liberty site were more erratic in the areas they covered and the numbers of bears impacted, and numbers of bears hypothetically exposed were usually smaller. Methods described here are broadly applicable to other dispersed marine wildlife. Key words: Arctic, Beaufort Sea, clustering, kernel, management, oil spill, polar bears, population delineation, radiotelemetry, satellite, smoothing, Ursus maritimus
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center","doi":"10.3133/85885","usgsCitation":"Amstrup, S.C., Durner, G.M., McDonald, T.L., and Johnson, W., 2006, Estimating Potential Effects of Hypothetical Oil Spills on Polar Bears, https://doi.org/10.3133/85885.","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","costCenters":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":127815,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/usgs_thumb.jpg"},{"id":91990,"rank":300,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.polarbearsinternational.org/sites/default/files/scientists/amstrup_et_al_mms_oil_spill_2006.pdf","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"}}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4ae0e4b07f02db688276","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Amstrup, Steven C.","contributorId":67034,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Amstrup","given":"Steven","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":13182,"text":"Polar Bears International","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":296663,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Durner, George M. 0000-0002-3370-1191 gdurner@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3370-1191","contributorId":3576,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Durner","given":"George","email":"gdurner@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":116,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology MFEB","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":296662,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"McDonald, T. L.","contributorId":101211,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McDonald","given":"T.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":296665,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Johnson, W.R.","contributorId":100316,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnson","given":"W.R.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":296664,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70184339,"text":"70184339 - 2006 - Reply to comment on ‘Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times’ by R. E. Criss and W. E. Winston","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-03-07T15:25:10","indexId":"70184339","displayToPublicDate":"2006-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2006","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1924,"text":"Hydrological Processes","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Reply to comment on ‘Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times’ by R. E. Criss and W. E. Winston","docAbstract":"No abstract available
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/hyp.6516","usgsCitation":"Reddy, M.M., Schuster, P., Kendall, C., and Reddy, M.B., 2006, Reply to comment on ‘Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times’ by R. E. Criss and W. E. Winston: Hydrological Processes, v. 20, no. 16, p. 3573-3578, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6516.","productDescription":"6 p. ","startPage":"3573","endPage":"3578","costCenters":[{"id":589,"text":"Toxic Substances Hydrology Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":336964,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"20","issue":"16","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2006-09-04","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"58bfd4ffe4b014cc3a3ba532","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Reddy, Michael M. mmreddy@usgs.gov","contributorId":684,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reddy","given":"Michael","email":"mmreddy@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":145,"text":"Branch of Regional Research-Central Region","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":681052,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Schuster, Paul","contributorId":80542,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schuster","given":"Paul","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":681053,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Kendall, Carol 0000-0002-0247-3405 ckendall@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0247-3405","contributorId":1462,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kendall","given":"Carol","email":"ckendall@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":681054,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Reddy, Micaela B.","contributorId":7947,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reddy","given":"Micaela","email":"","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":681055,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":81598,"text":"81598 - 2006 - Fire ecology of the Sierra Nevada","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-01-23T13:47:08","indexId":"81598","displayToPublicDate":"2006-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2006","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"title":"Fire ecology of the Sierra Nevada","docAbstract":"No abstract available.
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Thus, to better understand how perturbations to the life history affect long-term population size, we examined population momentum for four vertebrate classes with different life history strategies. In a series of demographic experiments we show that population momentum generally has a larger effect on long-term population size for organisms with long generation times than for organisms with short generation times. However, patterns between population momentum and generation time varied across taxonomic groups and according to the life history parameter that was changed. Our findings indicate that momentum may be an especially important aspect of population dynamics for long-lived vertebrates, and deserves greater attention in life history studies. Further, we discuss the importance of population momentum in natural resource management, pest control, and conservation arenas. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. 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The sources of high-frequency arrivals at UPSAR, which we use to identify the rupture front, are mapped onto the San Andreas fault using their apparent velocity and back azimuth. Measurements of apparent velocity and back azimuth are calibrated using aftershocks, which have a compact source and known location. Aftershock back azimuths show considerable lateral refraction, consistent with a high-velocity ridge on the southwest side of the fault. We infer that the initial mainshock rupture velocity was approximately the Rayleigh speed (with respect to slower side of the fault), and the rupture then slowed to about 0.66?? near the town of Parkfield after 2 sec. The last well-correlated pulse, 4 sec after S, is the largest at UPSAR, and its source is near the region of large accelerations recorded by strong-motion accelerographs and close to northern extent of continuous surface fractures on the southwest fracture zone. Coincidence of sources with preshock and aftershock distributions suggests fault material properties control rupture behavior. High-frequency sources approximately correlate with the edges of asperities identified as regions of high slip derived from inversion of strong-motion waveforms.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1785/0120050812","issn":"00371106","usgsCitation":"Fletcher, J.B., Spudich, P., and Baker, L., 2006, Rupture propagation of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from observations at the UPSAR: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 96, no. 4 B, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050812.","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":209670,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120050812"},{"id":236341,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"4 B","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505aaedae4b0c8380cd87265","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Fletcher, Joe B.","contributorId":8850,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fletcher","given":"Joe","email":"","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419830,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Spudich, P.","contributorId":85700,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Spudich","given":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419832,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Baker, L.M.","contributorId":40608,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Baker","given":"L.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419831,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70028747,"text":"70028747 - 2006 - Using digital photographs and object-based image analysis to estimate percent ground cover in vegetation plots","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:21:00","indexId":"70028747","displayToPublicDate":"2006-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2006","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1701,"text":"Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Using digital photographs and object-based image analysis to estimate percent ground cover in vegetation plots","docAbstract":"Ground vegetation influences habitat selection and provides critical resources for survival and reproduction of animals. Researchers often employ visual methods to estimate ground cover, but these approaches may be prone to observer bias. We therefore evaluated a method using digital photographs of vegetation to objectively quantify percent ground cover of grasses, forbs, shrubs, litter, and bare ground within 90 plots of 2m2. We carried out object-based image analysis, using a software program called eCognition, to divide photographs into different vegetation classes (based on similarities among neighboring pixels) to estimate percent ground cover for each category. We used the Kappa index of agreement (KIA) to quantify correctly classified, randomly selected segments of all images. Our KIA values indicated strong agreement (> 80%) of all vegetation categories, with an average of 90-96% (SE = 5%) of shrub, litter, forb, and grass segments classified correctly. We also created artificial plots with known percentages of each vegetation category to evaluate the accuracy of software predictions. Observed differences between true cover and eCognition estimates for each category ranged from 1 to 4%. This technique provides a repeatable and reliable way to estimate percent ground cover that allows quantification of classification accuracy. ?? The Ecological Society of America.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","issn":"15409295","usgsCitation":"Luscier, J., Thompson, W., Wilson, J.M., Gorham, B., and Dragut, L., 2006, Using digital photographs and object-based image analysis to estimate percent ground cover in vegetation plots: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, v. 4, no. 8, p. 408-413.","startPage":"408","endPage":"413","numberOfPages":"6","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":236543,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"4","issue":"8","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505bc045e4b08c986b32a01f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Luscier, J.D.","contributorId":20961,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Luscier","given":"J.D.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419594,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Thompson, W.L.","contributorId":83234,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Thompson","given":"W.L.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419596,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wilson, J. M.","contributorId":88753,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wilson","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419597,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Gorham, B.E.","contributorId":106688,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gorham","given":"B.E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419598,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Dragut, L.D.","contributorId":69346,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dragut","given":"L.D.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":419595,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70028861,"text":"70028861 - 2006 - Does body size affect a bird's sensitivity to patch size and landscape structure?","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-08-31T13:24:03","indexId":"70028861","displayToPublicDate":"2006-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2006","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1318,"text":"Condor","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Does body size affect a bird's sensitivity to patch size and landscape structure?","docAbstract":"Larger birds are generally more strongly affected by habitat loss and fragmentation than are smaller ones because they require more resources and thus larger habitat patches. Consequently, conservation actions often favor the creation or protection of larger over smaller patches. However, in grassland systems the boundaries between a patch and the surrounding landscape, and thus the perceived size of a patch, can be indistinct. We investigated whether eight grassland bird species with different body sizes perceived variation in patch size and landscape structure in a consistent manner. Data were collected from surveys conducted in 44 patches of northern tallgrass prairie during 1998–2001. The response to patch size was very similar among species regardless of body size (density was little affected by patch size), except in the Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), which showed a threshold effect and was not found in patches smaller than 140 ha. In landscapes containing 0%–30% woody vegetation, smaller species responded more negatively to increases in the percentage of woody vegetation than larger species, but above an apparent threshold of 30%, larger species were not detected. Further analyses revealed that the observed variation in responses to patch size and landscape structure among species was not solely due to body size per se, but to other differences among species. These results indicate that a stringent application of concepts requiring larger habitat patches for larger species appears to limit the number of grassland habitats that can be protected and may not always be the most effective conservation strategy.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Ornithological Society","doi":"10.1650/0010-5422(2006)108[808:DBSAAB]2.0.CO;2","issn":"00105422","usgsCitation":"Winter, M., Johnson, D.H., and Shaffer, J.A., 2006, Does body size affect a bird's sensitivity to patch size and landscape structure?: Condor, v. 108, no. 4, p. 808-816, https://doi.org/10.1650/0010-5422(2006)108[808:DBSAAB]2.0.CO;2.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"808","endPage":"816","numberOfPages":"9","costCenters":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":477445,"rank":10000,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1650/0010-5422(2006)108[808:dbsaab]2.0.co;2","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":236553,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":209825,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1650/0010-5422(2006)108[808:DBSAAB]2.0.CO;2"}],"volume":"108","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a038ce4b0c8380cd50524","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Winter, Maiken","contributorId":174790,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Winter","given":"Maiken","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":420065,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Johnson, Douglas H. 0000-0002-7778-6641 douglas_h_johnson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7778-6641","contributorId":1387,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnson","given":"Douglas","email":"douglas_h_johnson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":420066,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Shaffer, Jill A. 0000-0003-3172-0708 jshaffer@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3172-0708","contributorId":3184,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Shaffer","given":"Jill","email":"jshaffer@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":420064,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}