Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.
","language":"English","publisher":"PNAS","doi":"10.1073/pnas.1710231115","usgsCitation":"Dietze, M., Fox, A., Beck-Johnson, L., Betancourt, J.L., Hooten, M., Jarnevich, C.S., Keitt, T.H., Kenney, M.A., Laney, C.M., Larsen, L., Loescher, H.W., Lunch, C.K., Pijanowski, B., Randerson, J.T., Read, E., Tredennick, A.T., Vargas, R., Weathers, K.C., and White, E.P., 2018, Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, v. 115, no. 7, p. 1424-1432, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710231115.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"1424","endPage":"1432","ipdsId":"IP-087870","costCenters":[{"id":436,"text":"National Research Program - Eastern Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":29789,"text":"John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469004,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710231115","text":"External Repository"},{"id":351515,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"115","issue":"7","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":9,"text":"Reston PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-01-30","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee730e4b0da30c1bfc19e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dietze, Mike","contributorId":190102,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Dietze","given":"Mike","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728347,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Fox, Andrew","contributorId":190103,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Fox","given":"Andrew","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728348,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Beck-Johnson, Lindsay","contributorId":202412,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Beck-Johnson","given":"Lindsay","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6621,"text":"Colorado State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728349,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Betancourt, Julio L. 0000-0002-7165-0743 jlbetanc@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-0743","contributorId":3376,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Betancourt","given":"Julio","email":"jlbetanc@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":436,"text":"National Research Program - Eastern Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":554,"text":"Science and Decisions Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728346,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Hooten, Mevin 0000-0002-1614-723X mhooten@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1614-723X","contributorId":2958,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hooten","given":"Mevin","email":"mhooten@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":12963,"text":"Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Fort Collins, CO","active":true,"usgs":false},{"id":291,"text":"Fort Collins Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728350,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Jarnevich, Catherine S. 0000-0002-9699-2336 jarnevichc@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9699-2336","contributorId":3424,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Jarnevich","given":"Catherine","email":"jarnevichc@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":291,"text":"Fort Collins Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728351,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Keitt, Timothy H.","contributorId":202413,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Keitt","given":"Timothy","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":36422,"text":"University of Texas","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728352,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Kenney, Melissa A.","contributorId":202414,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kenney","given":"Melissa","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":7083,"text":"University of Maryland","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728353,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Laney, Christine M.","contributorId":202415,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Laney","given":"Christine","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":36423,"text":"Battelle","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728354,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Larsen, Laurel G.","contributorId":191391,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Larsen","given":"Laurel G.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728355,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Loescher, Henry W.","contributorId":146136,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Loescher","given":"Henry","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":16596,"text":"National Ecological Observatory Network Inc and Institute of Alpine and Arctic Research, University of Colorado, Boulder","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728356,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11},{"text":"Lunch, Claire K.","contributorId":202416,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lunch","given":"Claire","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[{"id":36423,"text":"Battelle","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728357,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":12},{"text":"Pijanowski, Bryan","contributorId":190108,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pijanowski","given":"Bryan","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728358,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":13},{"text":"Randerson, James T.","contributorId":190109,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Randerson","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728359,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":14},{"text":"Read, Emily 0000-0002-9617-9433 eread@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9617-9433","contributorId":190110,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Read","given":"Emily","email":"eread@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":5054,"text":"Office of Water Information","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37316,"text":"WMA - Integrated Information Dissemination Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728360,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":15},{"text":"Tredennick, Andrew T.","contributorId":152688,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Tredennick","given":"Andrew","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":18962,"text":"Dept. of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728361,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":16},{"text":"Vargas, Rodrigo","contributorId":172036,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Vargas","given":"Rodrigo","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728362,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":17},{"text":"Weathers, Kathleen C.","contributorId":202417,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Weathers","given":"Kathleen","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":36424,"text":"Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728363,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":18},{"text":"White, Ethan P.","contributorId":190112,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"White","given":"Ethan","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728364,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":19}]}} ,{"id":70195349,"text":"70195349 - 2018 - Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-09T11:55:43","indexId":"70195349","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-09T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2508,"text":"Journal of Wildlife Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic","docAbstract":"Red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.21389","usgsCitation":"Lyons, J.E., Winn, B., Keyes, T., and Kalasz, K.S., 2018, Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 82, p. 383-396, https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21389.","productDescription":"14 p.","startPage":"383","endPage":"396","ipdsId":"IP-086607","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351422,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Georgia","county":"Gylnn County, McIntosh County","otherGeospatial":"Altamaha River Delta","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -81.50619506835938,\n 31.208103321325254\n ],\n [\n -81.16561889648438,\n 31.208103321325254\n ],\n [\n -81.16561889648438,\n 31.52470272697062\n ],\n [\n -81.50619506835938,\n 31.52470272697062\n ],\n [\n -81.50619506835938,\n 31.208103321325254\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"82","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":10,"text":"Baltimore PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-10-23","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7ec171e4b00f54eb25a747","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Lyons, James E. 0000-0002-9810-8751 jelyons@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9810-8751","contributorId":177546,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lyons","given":"James","email":"jelyons@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":727979,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Winn, Bradford","contributorId":202233,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Winn","given":"Bradford","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36377,"text":"Manomet","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727980,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Keyes, Timothy","contributorId":202234,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Keyes","given":"Timothy","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36378,"text":"Georgia Department of Natural Resources","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727981,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Kalasz, Kevin S.","contributorId":202235,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kalasz","given":"Kevin","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":36379,"text":"Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727982,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70194691,"text":"sir20175145 - 2018 - Distribution of effluent injected into the Boulder Zone of the Floridan aquifer system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, southeastern Florida, 1997–2011","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-12T14:52:11","indexId":"sir20175145","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-09T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":334,"text":"Scientific Investigations Report","code":"SIR","onlineIssn":"2328-0328","printIssn":"2328-031X","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2017-5145","title":"Distribution of effluent injected into the Boulder Zone of the Floridan aquifer system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, southeastern Florida, 1997–2011","docAbstract":"Nonhazardous, secondarily treated, domestic wastewater (effluent) has been injected about 1 kilometer below land surface into the Boulder Zone of the Floridan aquifer system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant in southeastern Florida. The Boulder Zone contains saline, nonpotable water. Effluent transport out of the injection zone is a risk of underground effluent injection. At the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, injected effluent was detected outside the Boulder Zone. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Miami-Dade Water and Sewer Department, investigated effluent transport from the Boulder Zone to overlying permeable zones in the Floridan aquifer system.
One conceptual model is presented to explain the presence of effluent outside of the injection zone in which effluent injected into the Boulder Zone was transported to the Avon Park permeable zone, forced by buoyancy and injection pressure. In this conceptual model, effluent injected primarily into the Boulder Zone reaches a naturally occurring feature (a karst-collapse structure) near an injection well, through which the effluent is transported vertically upward to the uppermost major permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer. The effluent is then transported laterally through the uppermost major permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer to another naturally occurring feature northwest of the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, through which it is then transported vertically upward into the Avon Park permeable zone. In addition, a leak within a monitoring well, between monitoring zones, allowed interflow between the Avon Park permeable zone and the Upper Floridan aquifer. A groundwater flow and effluent transport simulation of the hydrogeologic system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, based on the hypothesized and non-unique conceptualization of the subsurface hydrogeology and flow system, generally replicated measured effluent constituent concentration trends. The model was calibrated to match observed concentration trends for total ammonium (NH4+) and total dissolved solids.
The investigation qualitatively indicates that fractures, karst-collapse structures, faults, or other hydrogeologic features may permit effluent injected into the Boulder Zone to be transported to overlying permeable zones in the Floridan aquifer system. These findings, however, are qualitative because the locations of transport pathways that might exist from the Boulder Zone to the Avon Park permeable zone are largely unknown.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/sir20175145","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the Miami-Dade Water and Sewer Department","usgsCitation":"King, J.N., and Decker, J.D., 2018, Distribution of effluent injected into the Boulder Zone of the Floridan aquifer system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, southeastern Florida, 1997–2011: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5145, 52 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175145.","productDescription":"Report: vii, 52 p.; Data Release","numberOfPages":"64","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"Y","ipdsId":"IP-049438","costCenters":[{"id":27821,"text":"Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351307,"rank":1,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5145/sir20175145.pdf","text":"Report","size":"14.8 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIR 2017–5145"},{"id":351436,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5145/coverthb3.jpg"},{"id":351308,"rank":2,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F75H7DBF","text":"USGS data release","description":"USGS Data Release","linkHelpText":"SEAWAT Data Sets for Simulation of Effluent Transport in the Floridan Aquifer System at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, Southeastern Florida, 1997-2011: U.S. Geological Survey Data Release"}],"country":"United States","state":"Florida","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -80.5,\n 25.5\n ],\n [\n -80,\n 25.5\n ],\n [\n -80,\n 26.1667\n ],\n [\n -80.5,\n 26.1667\n ],\n [\n -80.5,\n 25.5\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Director, Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
4446 Pet Lane, Suite 108
Lutz, FL 33559
Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.173","usgsCitation":"Ryberg, K.R., Blomquist, J.D., Sprague, L.A., Sekellick, A.J., and Keisman, J.L., 2018, Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change: Science of the Total Environment, v. 616–617, p. 1423-1430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.173.","productDescription":"8 p.","startPage":"1423","endPage":"1430","ipdsId":"IP-080391","costCenters":[{"id":478,"text":"North Dakota Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469009,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.173","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":351357,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Chesapeake Bay ","volume":"616–617","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":4,"text":"Rolla PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7d6ff8e4b00f54eb24417b","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Ryberg, Karen R. 0000-0002-9834-2046 kryberg@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9834-2046","contributorId":1172,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ryberg","given":"Karen","email":"kryberg@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":34685,"text":"Dakota Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727090,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Blomquist, Joel D. 0000-0002-0140-6534 jdblomqu@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0140-6534","contributorId":197860,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blomquist","given":"Joel","email":"jdblomqu@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":374,"text":"Maryland Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727093,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Sprague, Lori A. 0000-0003-2832-6662 lsprague@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2832-6662","contributorId":726,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sprague","given":"Lori","email":"lsprague@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":27111,"text":"National Water Quality Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":451,"text":"National Water Quality Assessment Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":509,"text":"Office of the Associate Director for Water","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727092,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Sekellick, Andrew J. 0000-0002-0440-7655 ajsekell@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0440-7655","contributorId":4125,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sekellick","given":"Andrew","email":"ajsekell@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":374,"text":"Maryland Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727091,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Keisman, Jennifer L. 0000-0001-6808-9193 jkeisman@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6808-9193","contributorId":198107,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Keisman","given":"Jennifer","email":"jkeisman@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":41514,"text":"Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727094,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70195083,"text":"70195083 - 2018 - Dietary plasticity in a nutrient-rich system does not influence brown bear (Ursus arctos) body condition or denning","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-04-02T13:49:47","indexId":"70195083","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-08T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3093,"text":"Polar Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Dietary plasticity in a nutrient-rich system does not influence brown bear (Ursus arctos) body condition or denning","title":"Dietary plasticity in a nutrient-rich system does not influence brown bear (Ursus arctos) body condition or denning","docAbstract":"Behavioral differences within a population can allow use of a greater range of resources among individuals. The brown bear (Ursus arctos) is a generalist omnivore that occupies diverse habitats and displays considerable plasticity in food use. We evaluated whether brown bear foraging that resulted in deviations from a proposed optimal diet influenced body condition and, in turn, denning duration in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska. To assess assimilated diet, we used sectioned guard hair samples (n = 23) collected in autumn to determine stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios. To index proportional contributions of meat and vegetation to assimilated diets, we compared the carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) values of hair samples with the values identified for major food categories. We then compared percentage body fat and body mass in relation to the proportion of assimilated meat in the diet using linear models. We also examined the influence of autumn percentage body fat and mass on denning duration. Percentage body fat was not influenced by the proportion of assimilated meat in the diet. Additionally, percentage body fat and body mass did not influence denning duration. However, body mass of bears assimilating proportionately more meat was greater than bears assimilating less meat. Our results provide support for previous findings that larger bears consume higher amounts of protein to maintain their body size and therefore forage further from the proposed optimal diet. Additionally, our results demonstrate that individuals can achieve similar biological outcomes (e.g., percentage body fat) despite variable foraging strategies, suggesting that individuals within generalist populations may confer an adaptive advantage through behavioral plasticity.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1007/s00300-017-2237-6","usgsCitation":"Mangipane, L.S., Belant, J.L., Lafferty, D., Gustine, D.D., Hiller, T.L., Colvin, M., Mangipane, B.A., and Hilderbrand, G., 2018, Dietary plasticity in a nutrient-rich system does not influence brown bear (Ursus arctos) body condition or denning: Polar Biology, v. 41, no. 4, p. 763-772, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-017-2237-6.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"763","endPage":"772","ipdsId":"IP-081926","costCenters":[{"id":116,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology MFEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351349,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -155,\n 59.75\n ],\n [\n -152.75,\n 59.75\n ],\n [\n -152.75,\n 61\n ],\n [\n -155,\n 61\n ],\n [\n -155,\n 59.75\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"41","issue":"4","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-27","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7d6ff9e4b00f54eb244183","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Mangipane, Lindsey S.","contributorId":200447,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mangipane","given":"Lindsey","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726862,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Belant, Jerrold L.","contributorId":108394,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Belant","given":"Jerrold","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":35599,"text":"Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726863,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Lafferty, Diana J. R.","contributorId":201733,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lafferty","given":"Diana J. R.","affiliations":[{"id":36244,"text":"MSU","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726864,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Gustine, David D. dgustine@usgs.gov","contributorId":3776,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gustine","given":"David","email":"dgustine@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726865,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Hiller, Tim L.","contributorId":200448,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hiller","given":"Tim","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726866,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Colvin, Michael E.","contributorId":140975,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Colvin","given":"Michael E.","affiliations":[{"id":6680,"text":"Oregon State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726867,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Mangipane, Buck A.","contributorId":200450,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mangipane","given":"Buck","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726868,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Hilderbrand, Grant V. 0000-0002-0051-8315 ghilderbrand@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0051-8315","contributorId":199764,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hilderbrand","given":"Grant V.","email":"ghilderbrand@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":116,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology MFEB","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":726861,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8}]}} ,{"id":70195069,"text":"70195069 - 2018 - Using interviews and biological sign surveys to infer seasonal use of forested and agricultural portions of a human-dominated landscape by Asian elephants in Nepal","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-06-19T10:11:01","indexId":"70195069","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-08T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1590,"text":"Ethology Ecology and Evolution","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Using interviews and biological sign surveys to infer seasonal use of forested and agricultural portions of a human-dominated landscape by Asian elephants in Nepal","docAbstract":"Understanding how wide-ranging animals use landscapes in which human use is highly heterogeneous is important for determining patterns of human–wildlife conflict and designing mitigation strategies. Here, we show how biological sign surveys in forested components of a human-dominated landscape can be combined with human interviews in agricultural portions of a landscape to provide a full picture of seasonal use of different landscape components by wide-ranging animals and resulting human–wildlife conflict. We selected Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Nepal to illustrate this approach. Asian elephants are threatened throughout their geographic range, and there are large gaps in our understanding of their landscape-scale habitat use. We identified all potential elephant habitat in Nepal and divided the potential habitat into sampling units based on a 10 km by 10 km grid. Forested areas within grids were surveyed for signs of elephant use, and local villagers were interviewed regarding elephant use of agricultural areas and instances of conflict. Data were analyzed using single-season and multi-season (dynamic) occupancy models. A single-season occupancy model applied to data from 139 partially or wholly forested grid cells estimated that 0.57 of grid cells were used by elephants. Dynamic occupancy models fit to data from interviews across 158 grid cells estimated that monthly use of non-forested, human-dominated areas over the preceding year varied between 0.43 and 0.82 with a minimum in February and maximum in October. Seasonal patterns of crop raiding by elephants coincided with monthly elephant use of human-dominated areas, and serious instances of human–wildlife conflict were common. Efforts to mitigate human–elephant conflict in Nepal are likely to be most effective if they are concentrated during August through December when elephant use of human-dominated landscapes and human–elephant conflict are most common.
","language":"English","publisher":"Taylor & Francis","doi":"10.1080/03949370.2017.1405847","usgsCitation":"Lamichhane, B.R., Subedi, N., Pokheral, C.P., Dhakal, M., Acharya, K.P., Pradhan, N.M., Smith, J.L., Malla, S., Thakuri, B.S., and Yackulic, C.B., 2018, Using interviews and biological sign surveys to infer seasonal use of forested and agricultural portions of a human-dominated landscape by Asian elephants in Nepal: Ethology Ecology and Evolution, v. 30, no. 4, p. 331-347, https://doi.org/10.1080/03949370.2017.1405847.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"331","endPage":"347","ipdsId":"IP-082625","costCenters":[{"id":568,"text":"Southwest Biological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351344,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Nepal","geographicExtents":"{\"type\":\"FeatureCollection\",\"features\":[{\"type\":\"Feature\",\"geometry\":{\"type\":\"Polygon\",\"coordinates\":[[[88.12044,27.87654],[88.04313,27.44582],[88.1748,26.81041],[88.06024,26.41462],[87.22747,26.3979],[86.02439,26.63098],[85.25178,26.7262],[84.67502,27.2349],[83.30425,27.36451],[81.99999,27.92548],[81.0572,28.4161],[80.08842,28.79447],[80.47672,29.72987],[81.11126,30.18348],[81.5258,30.42272],[82.32751,30.11527],[83.33712,29.46373],[83.89899,29.32023],[84.23458,28.83989],[85.01164,28.64277],[85.82332,28.20358],[86.95452,27.97426],[88.12044,27.87654]]]},\"properties\":{\"name\":\"Nepal\"}}]}","volume":"30","issue":"4","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-18","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7d6ffae4b00f54eb24418e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Lamichhane, Babu Ram","contributorId":201694,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lamichhane","given":"Babu","email":"","middleInitial":"Ram","affiliations":[{"id":36232,"text":"National Trust for Nature Conservation, Khumaltar, POB 3712, Lalitpur, Nepal","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726793,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Subedi, Naresh","contributorId":201695,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Subedi","given":"Naresh","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36232,"text":"National Trust for Nature Conservation, Khumaltar, POB 3712, Lalitpur, Nepal","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726794,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Pokheral, Chiranjibi Prasad","contributorId":201696,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pokheral","given":"Chiranjibi","email":"","middleInitial":"Prasad","affiliations":[{"id":36232,"text":"National Trust for Nature Conservation, Khumaltar, POB 3712, Lalitpur, Nepal","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726795,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Dhakal, Maheshwar","contributorId":201698,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Dhakal","given":"Maheshwar","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36233,"text":"Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation, Babarmahal, Kathmandu, Nepal","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726797,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Acharya, Krishna Prasad","contributorId":201699,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Acharya","given":"Krishna","email":"","middleInitial":"Prasad","affiliations":[{"id":36233,"text":"Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation, Babarmahal, Kathmandu, Nepal","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726798,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Pradhan, Narendra Man Babu","contributorId":201700,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pradhan","given":"Narendra","email":"","middleInitial":"Man Babu","affiliations":[{"id":36234,"text":"Bird Conservation Nepal, Lazimpat, Kathmandu, Nepal (Work was done when he was with WWF Nepal, Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal)","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726799,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Smith, James L. David","contributorId":201701,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Smith","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"L. David","affiliations":[{"id":36235,"text":"Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Minnesota University, MN, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726800,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Malla, Sabita","contributorId":201702,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Malla","given":"Sabita","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36236,"text":"WWF Nepal, Baluwatar, Kathmandu","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726801,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Thakuri, Bishnu Singh","contributorId":201697,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Thakuri","given":"Bishnu","email":"","middleInitial":"Singh","affiliations":[{"id":36232,"text":"National Trust for Nature Conservation, Khumaltar, POB 3712, Lalitpur, Nepal","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726796,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Yackulic, Charles B. 0000-0001-9661-0724 cyackulic@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9661-0724","contributorId":4662,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Yackulic","given":"Charles","email":"cyackulic@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":568,"text":"Southwest Biological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726792,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10}]}} ,{"id":70195068,"text":"70195068 - 2018 - Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T12:28:05","indexId":"70195068","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-08T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2341,"text":"Journal of Hydrologic Engineering","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota","docAbstract":"The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (
Developing fast, cost-effective assessments of wild animal abundance is an important goal for many researchers, and environmental DNA (eDNA) holds much promise for this purpose. However, the quantitative relationship between species abundance and the amount of DNA present in the environment is likely to vary substantially among taxa and with ecological context. Here, we report a strong quantitative relationship between eDNA concentration and the abundance of spawning sockeye salmon in a small stream in Alaska, USA, where we took temporally- and spatially-replicated samples during the spawning period. This high-resolution dataset suggests that (1) eDNA concentrations vary significantly day-to-day, and likely within hours, in the context of the dynamic biological event of a salmon spawning season; (2) eDNA, as detected by species-specific quantitative PCR probes, seems to be conserved over short distances (tens of meters) in running water, but degrade quickly over larger scales (ca. 1.5 km); and (3) factors other than the mere presence of live, individual fish — such as location within the stream, live/dead ratio, and water temperature — can affect the eDNA-biomass correlation in space or time. A multivariate model incorporating both biotic and abiotic variables accounted for over 75% of the eDNA variance observed, suggesting that where a system is well-characterized, it may be possible to predict species' abundance from eDNA surveys, although we underscore that species- and system-specific variables are likely to limit the generality of any given quantitative model. Nevertheless, these findings provide an important step toward quantitative applications of eDNA in conservation and management.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2018.01.030","usgsCitation":"Tillotson, M.D., Kelly, R.P., Duda, J.J., Hoy, M.S., Kralj, J., and Quinn, T.P., 2018, Concentrations of environmental DNA (eDNA) reflect spawning salmon abundance at fine spatial and temporal scales: Biological Conservation, v. 220, p. 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.01.030.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"11","ipdsId":"IP-089550","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469008,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.01.030","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":438018,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F7K073HH","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Concentrations of environmental DNA (eDNA) during sockeye salmon spawning in 2016, Hansen Creek, Alaska, USA"},{"id":351365,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Hansen Creek","volume":"220","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7d6ff8e4b00f54eb244176","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Tillotson, Michael D.","contributorId":202117,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Tillotson","given":"Michael","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":36354,"text":"University of Washington, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727832,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Kelly, Ryan P.","contributorId":202201,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kelly","given":"Ryan","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":36369,"text":"University of Washington, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, 3710 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105. USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727833,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Duda, Jeffrey J. 0000-0001-7431-8634 jduda@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7431-8634","contributorId":148954,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Duda","given":"Jeffrey","email":"jduda@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727831,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Hoy, Marshal S. 0000-0003-2828-9697 mhoy@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2828-9697","contributorId":3033,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hoy","given":"Marshal","email":"mhoy@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727834,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Kralj, James","contributorId":202118,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kralj","given":"James","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36355,"text":"University of Washington, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, 3710 Brooklyn Ave. NE, Seattle, WA 98105","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727835,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Quinn, Thomas P.","contributorId":167272,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Quinn","given":"Thomas","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":24671,"text":"School of Aquatic and Fsiery Sciences, UW, Box 355020, Seattle, WA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727836,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70195100,"text":"70195100 - 2018 - The impact of lidar elevation uncertainty on mapping intertidal habitats on barrier islands","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-07T13:47:07","indexId":"70195100","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3250,"text":"Remote Sensing","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The impact of lidar elevation uncertainty on mapping intertidal habitats on barrier islands","docAbstract":"While airborne lidar data have revolutionized the spatial resolution that elevations can be realized, data limitations are often magnified in coastal settings. Researchers have found that airborne lidar can have a vertical error as high as 60 cm in densely vegetated intertidal areas. The uncertainty of digital elevation models is often left unaddressed; however, in low-relief environments, such as barrier islands, centimeter differences in elevation can affect exposure to physically demanding abiotic conditions, which greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. In this study, we used airborne lidar elevation data, in situ elevation observations, lidar metadata, and tide gauge information to delineate low-lying lands and the intertidal wetlands on Dauphin Island, a barrier island along the coast of Alabama, USA. We compared three different elevation error treatments, which included leaving error untreated and treatments that used Monte Carlo simulations to incorporate elevation vertical uncertainty using general information from lidar metadata and site-specific Real-Time Kinematic Global Position System data, respectively. To aid researchers in instances where limited information is available for error propagation, we conducted a sensitivity test to assess the effect of minor changes to error and bias. Treatment of error with site-specific observations produced the fewest omission errors, although the treatment using the lidar metadata had the most well-balanced results. The percent coverage of intertidal wetlands was increased by up to 80% when treating the vertical error of the digital elevation models. Based on the results from the sensitivity analysis, it could be reasonable to use error and positive bias values from literature for similar environments, conditions, and lidar acquisition characteristics in the event that collection of site-specific data is not feasible and information in the lidar metadata is insufficient. The methodology presented in this study should increase efficiency and enhance results for habitat mapping and analyses in dynamic, low-relief coastal environments.
","language":"English","publisher":"MDPI","doi":"10.3390/rs10010005","usgsCitation":"Enwright, N.M., Wang, L., Borchert, S., Day, R.H., Feher, L.C., and Osland, M.J., 2018, The impact of lidar elevation uncertainty on mapping intertidal habitats on barrier islands: Remote Sensing, v. 10, no. 1, p. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10010005.","productDescription":"Article 5; 18 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"18","ipdsId":"IP-092535","costCenters":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469015,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10010005","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":438022,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F7125RVT","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"The impact of lidar elevation uncertainty on mapping intertidal habitats on barrier islands"},{"id":351280,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alabama","otherGeospatial":"Dauphin Island","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -88.35548400878906,\n 30.201520239640427\n ],\n [\n -88.05473327636719,\n 30.201520239640427\n ],\n [\n -88.05473327636719,\n 30.282788098216884\n ],\n [\n -88.35548400878906,\n 30.282788098216884\n ],\n [\n -88.35548400878906,\n 30.201520239640427\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"10","issue":"1","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":5,"text":"Lafayette PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-21","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e71e4b00f54eb2292d1","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Enwright, Nicholas M. 0000-0002-7887-3261 enwrightn@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7887-3261","contributorId":4880,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Enwright","given":"Nicholas","email":"enwrightn@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":455,"text":"National Wetlands Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726924,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wang, Lei","contributorId":193279,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wang","given":"Lei","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726925,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Borchert, Sinéad M. 0000-0002-6665-7115","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6665-7115","contributorId":193278,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Borchert","given":"Sinéad M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726926,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Day, Richard H. 0000-0002-5959-7054 dayr@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5959-7054","contributorId":2427,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Day","given":"Richard","email":"dayr@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":455,"text":"National Wetlands Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726927,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Feher, Laura C. 0000-0002-5983-6190 lhundy@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5983-6190","contributorId":176788,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Feher","given":"Laura","email":"lhundy@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726928,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Osland, Michael J. 0000-0001-9902-8692 mosland@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9902-8692","contributorId":3080,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Osland","given":"Michael","email":"mosland@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":455,"text":"National Wetlands Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726929,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70195101,"text":"70195101 - 2018 - Why large cells dominate estuarine phytoplankton","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-03-12T13:09:06","indexId":"70195101","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2620,"text":"Limnology and Oceanography","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Why large cells dominate estuarine phytoplankton","docAbstract":"Surveys across the world oceans have shown that phytoplankton biomass and production are dominated by small cells (picoplankton) where nutrient concentrations are low, but large cells (microplankton) dominate when nutrient-rich deep water is mixed to the surface. I analyzed phytoplankton size structure in samples collected over 25 yr in San Francisco Bay, a nutrient-rich estuary. Biomass was dominated by large cells because their biomass selectively grew during blooms. Large-cell dominance appears to be a characteristic of ecosystems at the land–sea interface, and these places may therefore function as analogs to oceanic upwelling systems. Simulations with a size-structured NPZ model showed that runs of positive net growth rate persisted long enough for biomass of large, but not small, cells to accumulate. Model experiments showed that small cells would dominate in the absence of grazing, at lower nutrient concentrations, and at elevated (+5°C) temperatures. Underlying these results are two fundamental scaling laws: (1) large cells are grazed more slowly than small cells, and (2) grazing rate increases with temperature faster than growth rate. The model experiments suggest testable hypotheses about phytoplankton size structure at the land–sea interface: (1) anthropogenic nutrient enrichment increases cell size; (2) this response varies with temperature and only occurs at mid-high latitudes; (3) large-cell blooms can only develop when temperature is below a critical value, around 15°C; (4) cell size diminishes along temperature gradients from high to low latitudes; and (5) large-cell blooms will diminish or disappear where planetary warming increases temperature beyond their critical threshold.
","language":"English","publisher":"Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography","doi":"10.1002/lno.10749","usgsCitation":"Cloern, J.E., 2018, Why large cells dominate estuarine phytoplankton: Limnology and Oceanography, v. 63, no. S1, p. S392-S409, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10749.","productDescription":"18 p.","startPage":"S392","endPage":"S409","ipdsId":"IP-090756","costCenters":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469025,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10749","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":438020,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F74F1P6P","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Phytoplankton Species Composition, Abundance and Cell Size in San Francisco Bay: Microscopic Analyses of USGS Samples Collected 1992-2014"},{"id":351310,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"63","issue":"S1","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-11-30","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e71e4b00f54eb2292ca","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cloern, James E. 0000-0002-5880-6862 jecloern@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5880-6862","contributorId":1488,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cloern","given":"James","email":"jecloern@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726930,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70195108,"text":"70195108 - 2018 - Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T09:27:41","indexId":"70195108","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1427,"text":"Earth and Planetary Science Letters","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California","title":"Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California","docAbstract":"The accumulation of magmatic CO2 beneath low-permeability barriers may lead to the formation of CO2-rich gas reservoirs within volcanic systems. Such accumulation is often evidenced by high surface CO2 emissions that fluctuate over time. The temporal variability in surface degassing is believed in part to reflect a complex interplay between deep magmatic degassing and the permeability of degassing pathways. A better understanding of the dynamics of CO2 degassing is required to improve monitoring and hazards mitigation in these systems. Owing to the availability of long-term records of CO2 emissions rates and seismicity, Mammoth Mountain in California constitutes an ideal site towards such predictive understanding. Mammoth Mountain is characterized by intense soil CO2 degassing (up to ∼1000 t d−1) and tree kill areas that resulted from leakage of CO2 from a CO2-rich gas reservoir located in the upper ∼4 km. The release of CO2-rich fluids from deeper basaltic intrusions towards the reservoir induces seismicity and potentially reactivates faults connecting the reservoir to the surface. While this conceptual model is well-accepted, there is still a debate whether temporally variable surface CO2 fluxes directly reflect degassing of intrusions or variations in fault permeability. Here, we report the first large-scale numerical model of fluid and heat transport for Mammoth Mountain. We discuss processes (i) leading to the initial formation of the CO2-rich gas reservoir prior to the occurrence of high surface CO2 degassing rates and (ii) controlling current CO2 degassing at the surface. Although the modeling settings are site-specific, the key mechanisms discussed in this study are likely at play at other volcanic systems hosting CO2-rich gas reservoirs. In particular, our model results illustrate the role of convection in stripping a CO2-rich gas phase from a rising hydrothermal fluid and leading to an accumulation of a large mass of CO2 (∼107–108 t) in a shallow gas reservoir. Moreover, we show that both, short-lived (months to years) and long-lived (hundreds of years) events of magmatic fluid injection can lead to critical pressures within the reservoir and potentially trigger fault reactivation. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that observed temporal fluctuations in surface degassing are only indirectly controlled by variations in magmatic degassing and are mainly the result of temporally variable fault permeability. Finally, we suggest that long-term CO2 emission monitoring, seismic tomography and coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical modeling are important for CO2-related hazard mitigation.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.epsl.2017.12.038","usgsCitation":"Pfeiffer, L., Wanner, C., and Lewicki, J.L., 2018, Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 484, p. 318-328, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.12.038.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"318","endPage":"328","ipdsId":"IP-089596","costCenters":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":502607,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://boris.unibe.ch/108615/","text":"External Repository"},{"id":351302,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"Mammoth Mountain","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -119.0456199645996,\n 37.615387232289116\n ],\n [\n -119.01257514953612,\n 37.615387232289116\n ],\n [\n -119.01257514953612,\n 37.6343536596899\n ],\n [\n -119.0456199645996,\n 37.6343536596899\n ],\n [\n -119.0456199645996,\n 37.615387232289116\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"484","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e6fe4b00f54eb2292b9","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Pfeiffer, Loic","contributorId":201801,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Pfeiffer","given":"Loic","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36253,"text":"CICESE","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726985,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wanner, Christoph","contributorId":201802,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wanner","given":"Christoph","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":25430,"text":"University of Bern","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726986,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Lewicki, Jennifer L. 0000-0003-1994-9104 jlewicki@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1994-9104","contributorId":5071,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lewicki","given":"Jennifer","email":"jlewicki@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":617,"text":"Volcano Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726984,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70195157,"text":"70195157 - 2018 - Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T09:24:14","indexId":"70195157","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":681,"text":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America","docAbstract":"Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.11.005","usgsCitation":"Biederman, J.A., Scott, R.L., Arnone, J.A., Jasoni, R.L., Litvak, M.E., Moreo, M.T., Papuga, S.A., Ponce-Campos, G.E., Schreiner-McGraw, A.P., and Vivoni, E.R., 2018, Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v. 249, p. 407-419, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.11.005.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"407","endPage":"419","ipdsId":"IP-088519","costCenters":[{"id":465,"text":"Nevada Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469024,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1549057","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":351309,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"249","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":1,"text":"Sacramento PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e6ee4b00f54eb2292a1","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Biederman, Joel A.","contributorId":201939,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Biederman","given":"Joel","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":6758,"text":"USDA-ARS","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727236,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Scott, Russell L.","contributorId":39875,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Scott","given":"Russell","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727237,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Arnone, John A.","contributorId":201941,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Arnone","given":"John","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":16138,"text":"Desert Research Institute","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727238,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Jasoni, Richard L.","contributorId":201942,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Jasoni","given":"Richard","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":16138,"text":"Desert Research Institute","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727239,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Litvak, Marcy E.","contributorId":73932,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Litvak","given":"Marcy","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727240,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Moreo, Michael T. 0000-0002-9122-6958 mtmoreo@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9122-6958","contributorId":2363,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Moreo","given":"Michael","email":"mtmoreo@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":465,"text":"Nevada Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727235,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Papuga, Shirley A.","contributorId":197727,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Papuga","given":"Shirley","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727241,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.","contributorId":201945,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ponce-Campos","given":"Guillermo","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":6758,"text":"USDA-ARS","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727242,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.","contributorId":201946,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Schreiner-McGraw","given":"Adam","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":6607,"text":"Arizona State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727243,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Vivoni, Enrique R.","contributorId":139052,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Vivoni","given":"Enrique","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":12634,"text":"School of Earth and Space Exploration and School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727244,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10}]}} ,{"id":70195156,"text":"70195156 - 2018 - Time series sightability modeling of animal populations","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-07T13:33:48","indexId":"70195156","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2980,"text":"PLoS ONE","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Time series sightability modeling of animal populations","docAbstract":"Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.
","language":"English","publisher":"PLoS ONE","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0190706","usgsCitation":"ArchMiller, A.A., Dorazio, R., St. Clair, K., and Fieberg, J.R., 2018, Time series sightability modeling of animal populations: PLoS ONE, v. 13, no. 1, p. 1-16, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190706.","productDescription":"e0190706; 16 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"16","ipdsId":"IP-085670","costCenters":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469014,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190706","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":351270,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"13","issue":"1","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":5,"text":"Lafayette PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-01-12","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e6ee4b00f54eb2292a6","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"ArchMiller, Althea A.","contributorId":194336,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"ArchMiller","given":"Althea","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727232,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Dorazio, Robert 0000-0003-2663-0468 bob_dorazio@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2663-0468","contributorId":172151,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dorazio","given":"Robert","email":"bob_dorazio@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":5051,"text":"FLWSC-Orlando","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727231,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"St. Clair, Katherine","contributorId":201938,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"St. Clair","given":"Katherine","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36306,"text":"Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727233,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Fieberg, John R. 0000-0002-3180-7021","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-7021","contributorId":194333,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Fieberg","given":"John","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727234,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70195285,"text":"70195285 - 2018 - Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-07T12:12:02","indexId":"70195285","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3352,"text":"Science of the Total Environment","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient","docAbstract":"Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.327","usgsCitation":"Spanjer, A., Moran, P.W., Larsen, K., Wetzel, L., Hansen, A.G., and Beauchamp, D.A., 2018, Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient: Science of the Total Environment, v. 625, p. 1003-1012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.327.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"1003","endPage":"1012","ipdsId":"IP-091284","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469018,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.327","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":438023,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F7W094WD","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Influence of urbanization on the health of juvenile salmonids in Pacific Northwest perennial streams"},{"id":351235,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"625","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e68e4b00f54eb229268","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Spanjer, Andrew R.","contributorId":202171,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Spanjer","given":"Andrew R.","affiliations":[{"id":17855,"text":"School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727732,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Moran, Patrick W. 0000-0002-2002-3539 pwmoran@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2002-3539","contributorId":489,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Moran","given":"Patrick","email":"pwmoran@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":622,"text":"Washington Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727733,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Larsen, Kimberly 0000-0001-7978-2452","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7978-2452","contributorId":202172,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Larsen","given":"Kimberly","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727734,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Wetzel, Lisa 0000-0003-3178-9940","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3178-9940","contributorId":202173,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wetzel","given":"Lisa","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727735,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Hansen, Adam G.","contributorId":197415,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hansen","given":"Adam","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":34919,"text":"Colorado Parks and Wildlife, 317 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727736,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Beauchamp, David A. 0000-0002-3592-8381 fadave@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3592-8381","contributorId":4205,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Beauchamp","given":"David","email":"fadave@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727731,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70195240,"text":"70195240 - 2018 - Removing rural roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-01-29T15:55:10.456084","indexId":"70195240","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3052,"text":"Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Removing rural roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011","docAbstract":"Quantifying change in urban land provides important information to create empirical models examining the effects of human land use. Maps of developed land from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of the conterminous United States include rural roads in the developed land class and therefore overestimate the amount of urban land. To better map the urban class and understand how urban lands change over time, we removed rural roads and small patches of rural development from the NLCD developed class and created four wall-to-wall maps (1992, 2001, 2006, and 2011) of urban land. Removing rural roads from the NLCD developed class involved a multi-step filtering process, data fusion using geospatial road and developed land data, and manual editing. Reference data classified as urban or not urban from a stratified random sample was used to assess the accuracy of the 2001 and 2006 urban and NLCD maps. The newly created urban maps had higher overall accuracy (98.7 percent) than the NLCD maps (96.2 percent). More importantly, the urban maps resulted in lower commission error of the urban class (23 percent versus 57 percent for the NLCD in 2006) with the trade-off of slightly inflated omission error (20 percent for the urban map, 16 percent for NLCD in 2006). The removal of approximately 230,000 km2 of rural roads from the NLCD developed class resulted in maps that better characterize the urban footprint. These urban maps are more suited to modeling applications and policy decisions that rely on quantitative and spatially explicit information regarding urban lands.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing","doi":"10.14358/PERS.84.2.101","usgsCitation":"Soulard, C.E., Acevedo, W., and Stehman, S.V., 2018, Removing rural roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011: Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, v. 84, no. 2, p. 101-109, https://doi.org/10.14358/PERS.84.2.101.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"101","endPage":"109","ipdsId":"IP-082476","costCenters":[{"id":657,"text":"Western Geographic Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":489910,"rank":3,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.14358/pers.84.2.101","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":351268,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":361096,"rank":2,"type":{"id":42,"text":"Open Access USGS Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/ja/70195240/70195240.pdf","text":"USGS open-access version of article","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"}}],"country":"United States","volume":"84","issue":"2","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e69e4b00f54eb22926e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Soulard, Christopher E. 0000-0002-5777-9516 csoulard@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5777-9516","contributorId":2642,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Soulard","given":"Christopher","email":"csoulard@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":657,"text":"Western Geographic Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727583,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Acevedo, William wacevedo@usgs.gov","contributorId":2689,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Acevedo","given":"William","email":"wacevedo@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":223,"text":"Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center (Geography)","active":false,"usgs":true},{"id":657,"text":"Western Geographic Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727584,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Stehman, Stephen V.","contributorId":77283,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stehman","given":"Stephen","email":"","middleInitial":"V.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727585,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70196691,"text":"70196691 - 2018 - The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-04-24T17:03:06","indexId":"70196691","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3544,"text":"The Auk","onlineIssn":"1938-4254","printIssn":"0004-8038","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach","docAbstract":"Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas, and status of the species for the larger Bi-State.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Ornithological Society","doi":"10.1642/AUK-17-137.1","usgsCitation":"Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B., Ricca, M.A., Halstead, B., Casazza, M.L., Blomberg, E.J., Brussee, B.E., Wiechman, L., Tebbenkamp, J., Gardner, S.C., and Reese, K.P., 2018, The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach: The Auk, v. 135, no. 2, p. 240-261, https://doi.org/10.1642/AUK-17-137.1.","productDescription":"22 p.","startPage":"240","endPage":"261","ipdsId":"IP-090891","costCenters":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469019,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"http://www.bioone.org/doi/10.1642/AUK-17-137.1","text":"External Repository"},{"id":353689,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"135","issue":"2","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":1,"text":"Sacramento PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee731e4b0da30c1bfc1ac","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Coates, Peter S. 0000-0003-2672-9994 pcoates@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9994","contributorId":3263,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Coates","given":"Peter","email":"pcoates@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":733981,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Prochazka, Brian G. bprochazka@usgs.gov","contributorId":147020,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Prochazka","given":"Brian G.","email":"bprochazka@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":733982,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Ricca, Mark A. mark_ricca@usgs.gov","contributorId":2400,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ricca","given":"Mark","email":"mark_ricca@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":733983,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Halstead, Brian J. 0000-0002-5535-6528 bhalstead@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5535-6528","contributorId":3051,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Halstead","given":"Brian J.","email":"bhalstead@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":733984,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Casazza, Michael L. 0000-0002-5636-735X mike_casazza@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5636-735X","contributorId":2091,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Casazza","given":"Michael","email":"mike_casazza@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":733985,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Blomberg, Erik J.","contributorId":17543,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Blomberg","given":"Erik","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":7063,"text":"University of Maine","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":733986,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Brussee, Brianne E. 0000-0002-2452-7101 bbrussee@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2452-7101","contributorId":4249,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Brussee","given":"Brianne","email":"bbrussee@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":733987,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Wiechman, Lief","contributorId":108039,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wiechman","given":"Lief","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":733988,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Tebbenkamp, Joel","contributorId":25089,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Tebbenkamp","given":"Joel","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":733989,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Gardner, Scott C.","contributorId":192081,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Gardner","given":"Scott","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":733990,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Reese, Kerry P.","contributorId":70254,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reese","given":"Kerry","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":733991,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11}]}} ,{"id":70195214,"text":"70195214 - 2018 - Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T09:08:53","indexId":"70195214","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2193,"text":"Journal of Biogeography","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape","docAbstract":"Aim
Climate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results.
Location
Alpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.
Taxon
Lednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae.
Methods
We generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results.
Results
Contemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation.
Main conclusions
We identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana, this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/jbi.13125","usgsCitation":"Hotaling, S., Muhlfeld, C.C., Giersch, J.J., Ali, O., Jordan, S., Miller, M.R., Luikart, G., and Weisrock, D.W., 2018, Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape: Journal of Biogeography, v. 45, no. 2, p. 304-317, https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13125.","productDescription":"14 p.","startPage":"304","endPage":"317","ipdsId":"IP-090859","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351237,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Montana","otherGeospatial":"Glacier National Park","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n 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Joseph 0000-0001-7818-3941 jgiersch@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7818-3941","contributorId":198074,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Giersch","given":"J.","email":"jgiersch@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"Joseph","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727483,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Ali, Omar","contributorId":202051,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ali","given":"Omar","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":7214,"text":"University of California, Davis","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727484,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Jordan, Steve","contributorId":168297,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Jordan","given":"Steve","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":25242,"text":"Department of Biology, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, Pennsylvania 17837, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727485,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Miller, Michael R.","contributorId":45796,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Miller","given":"Michael","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":12709,"text":"Department of Animal Science, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727486,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Luikart, Gordon","contributorId":97409,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Luikart","given":"Gordon","affiliations":[{"id":6580,"text":"University of Montana, Flathead Lake Biological Station, Polson, Montana 59860, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727487,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Weisrock, David W.","contributorId":198313,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Weisrock","given":"David","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727488,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8}]}} ,{"id":70195211,"text":"70195211 - 2018 - Hypocenter relocation along the Sunda arc in Indonesia, using a 3D seismic velocity model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-28T10:04:58","indexId":"70195211","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3372,"text":"Seismological Research Letters","onlineIssn":"1938-2057","printIssn":"0895-0695","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Hypocenter relocation along the Sunda arc in Indonesia, using a 3D seismic velocity model","docAbstract":"The tectonics of the Sunda arc region is characterized by the junction of the Eurasian and Indo‐Australian tectonic plates, causing complex dynamics to take place. High‐seismicity rates in the Indonesian region occur due to the interaction between these tectonic plates. The availability of a denser network of seismometers after the earthquakes of
Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/ele.12893","usgsCitation":"Getz, W.M., Marshall, C.R., Carlson, C.J., Giuggioli, L., Ryan, S.J., Romanach, S.S., Boettiger, C., Chamberlain, S.D., Larsen, L., D'Odorico, P., and O’Sullivan, D., 2018, Making ecological models adequate: Ecology Letters, v. 21, no. 2, p. 153-166, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12893.","productDescription":"14 p.","startPage":"153","endPage":"166","ipdsId":"IP-088087","costCenters":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469017,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8d5d214b-4b79-4eaf-80fb-edd67296962f","text":"External Repository"},{"id":351271,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"21","issue":"2","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":5,"text":"Lafayette PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-27","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e6fe4b00f54eb2292b3","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Getz, Wayne M.","contributorId":201830,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Getz","given":"Wayne","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":36267,"text":"Dept of Environmental Science, University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727050,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Marshall, Charles R.","contributorId":197649,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Marshall","given":"Charles","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727052,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Carlson, Colin J.","contributorId":201831,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Carlson","given":"Colin","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":36267,"text":"Dept of Environmental Science, University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727053,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Giuggioli, Luca","contributorId":201832,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Giuggioli","given":"Luca","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36268,"text":"Bristol Centre for Complexity Sciences, University of Bristol, UK","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727054,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Ryan, Sadie J.","contributorId":139037,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ryan","given":"Sadie","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":12623,"text":"State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727055,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Romanach, Stephanie S. 0000-0003-0271-7825 sromanach@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0271-7825","contributorId":140419,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Romanach","given":"Stephanie","email":"sromanach@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":566,"text":"Southeast Ecological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727051,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Boettiger, Carl","contributorId":201833,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Boettiger","given":"Carl","affiliations":[{"id":36267,"text":"Dept of Environmental Science, University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727056,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Chamberlain, Samuel D.","contributorId":201834,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Chamberlain","given":"Samuel","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":36267,"text":"Dept of Environmental Science, University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727057,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Larsen, Laurel","contributorId":190106,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Larsen","given":"Laurel","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727058,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"D'Odorico, Paolo","contributorId":201835,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"D'Odorico","given":"Paolo","affiliations":[{"id":36267,"text":"Dept of Environmental Science, University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727059,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"O’Sullivan, David","contributorId":201836,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"O’Sullivan","given":"David","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36269,"text":"Dept of Geography, University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727060,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11}]}} ,{"id":70195203,"text":"70195203 - 2018 - Virulence of a chimeric recombinant infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus expressing the spring viraemia of carp virus glycoprotein in salmonid and cyprinid fish","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-07T12:01:35","indexId":"70195203","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2286,"text":"Journal of Fish Diseases","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Virulence of a chimeric recombinant infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus expressing the spring viraemia of carp virus glycoprotein in salmonid and cyprinid fish","docAbstract":"Infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV) are both rhabdoviruses of fish, listed as notifiable disease agents by the World Organization for Animal Health. Recombinant rhabdoviruses with heterologous gene substitutions have been engineered to study genetic determinants and assess the potential of these recombinant viruses for vaccine development. A recombinant IHNV (rIHNV), containing the full-length genome of a European IHNV strain, was modified by deleting the glycoprotein (G) gene and replacing it with a European SVCV G-gene to make the rIHNV-Gsvcv. The chimeric rIHNV-Gsvcv level of virulence in rainbow trout, common carp and koi was assessed, and its ability to induce a protective immune response in surviving koi against wild-type SVCV infection was tested. The rIHNV-Gsvcv infection of trout led to high mortality, ranging from 78% to 92.5%, after immersion. In contrast, no deaths occurred in juvenile common carp after infection with rIHNV-Gsvcv by either immersion or intraperitoneal (IP) injection. Similarly, koi infected with rIHNV-Gsvcv via IP injection had little to no mortality (≤9%). Koi that survived initial infection with a high dose of recombinant virus rIHNV-Gsvcv were protected against a virulent SVCV challenge resulting in a high relative per cent survival of 82.5%.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/jfd.12678","usgsCitation":"Emmenegger, E.J., Biacchesi, S., Merour, E., Glenn, J.A., Palmer, A., Bremont, M., and Kurath, G., 2018, Virulence of a chimeric recombinant infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus expressing the spring viraemia of carp virus glycoprotein in salmonid and cyprinid fish: Journal of Fish Diseases, v. 41, no. 1, p. 67-78, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfd.12678.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"67","endPage":"78","ipdsId":"IP-085208","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351233,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"41","issue":"1","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-08-11","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e6be4b00f54eb22927e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Emmenegger, Eveline J. 0000-0001-5217-6030 eemmenegger@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5217-6030","contributorId":202027,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Emmenegger","given":"Eveline","email":"eemmenegger@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727423,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Biacchesi, Stephane","contributorId":202028,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Biacchesi","given":"Stephane","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36328,"text":"Virologie et Immunologie Moléculaires (VIM), INRA, Université Paris-Saclay, 78350","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727425,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Merour, Emilie","contributorId":202029,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Merour","given":"Emilie","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36328,"text":"Virologie et Immunologie Moléculaires (VIM), INRA, Université Paris-Saclay, 78350","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727426,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Glenn, Jolene. A","contributorId":202030,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Glenn","given":"Jolene.","email":"","middleInitial":"A","affiliations":[{"id":36329,"text":"Fred Hutch Cancer Research Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727427,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Palmer, Alexander D.","contributorId":202031,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Palmer","given":"Alexander D.","affiliations":[{"id":36330,"text":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Microbiology, Chemical and Life Sciences Laboratories, 601 S Goodwin Ave. B-210 Urbana, IL 61801 USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727428,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Bremont, Michel","contributorId":202032,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bremont","given":"Michel","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36328,"text":"Virologie et Immunologie Moléculaires (VIM), INRA, Université Paris-Saclay, 78350","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727429,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Kurath, Gael 0000-0003-3294-560X gkurath@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3294-560X","contributorId":2629,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kurath","given":"Gael","email":"gkurath@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727424,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70195044,"text":"70195044 - 2018 - Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-07-16T11:28:09","indexId":"70195044","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-06T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3750,"text":"Wetlands","onlineIssn":"1943-6246","printIssn":"0277-5212","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum","docAbstract":"The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to shift among alternate states. We propose that incorporation of state shifts into the Wetland Continuum, as originally proposed or as modified by Hayashi et al., is a relatively simple matter if one allows for shifts of wetlands along the horizontal, groundwater axis of the framework under conditions of extreme and sustained wet or dry conditions. We suggest that the ease by which state shifts can be accommodated within both the original and modified frameworks of the Wetland Continuum is a testament to the robustness of the concept when it is related to the alternative-stable-state concept.","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1007/s13157-018-1004-y","usgsCitation":"Mushet, D.M., McKenna, O.P., LaBaugh, J.W., Euliss, N.H., and Rosenberry, D.O., 2018, Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum: Wetlands, v. 38, no. 3, p. 647-651, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1004-y.","productDescription":"5 p.","startPage":"647","endPage":"651","ipdsId":"IP-087524","costCenters":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351036,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"38","issue":"3","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":4,"text":"Rolla PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-02-05","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7acd1be4b00f54eb20c584","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Mushet, David M. 0000-0002-5910-2744 dmushet@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5910-2744","contributorId":1299,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mushet","given":"David","email":"dmushet@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726735,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"McKenna, Owen P. 0000-0002-5937-9436 omckenna@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5937-9436","contributorId":198598,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McKenna","given":"Owen","email":"omckenna@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":726736,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"LaBaugh, James W. 0000-0002-4112-2536 jlabaugh@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4112-2536","contributorId":1311,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"LaBaugh","given":"James","email":"jlabaugh@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":27111,"text":"National Water Quality Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":493,"text":"Office of Ground Water","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726737,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Euliss, Ned H. Jr. ceuliss@usgs.gov","contributorId":2916,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Euliss","given":"Ned","suffix":"Jr.","email":"ceuliss@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726738,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Rosenberry, Donald O. 0000-0003-0681-5641 rosenber@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0681-5641","contributorId":1312,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rosenberry","given":"Donald","email":"rosenber@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"O.","affiliations":[{"id":5044,"text":"National Research Program - Central Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726739,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70195226,"text":"70195226 - 2018 - Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-06T18:16:45","indexId":"70195226","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-06T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2344,"text":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin","docAbstract":"Despite the importance of the Missouri River for navigation, recreation, habitat, hydroelectric power, and agriculture, relatively little is known about the basic hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin (MRB). This is of particular concern given the droughts and floods that have occurred over the past several decades and the potential future exacerbation of these extremes by climate change. Here, observed and modeled hydroclimatic data and estimated natural flow records in the MRB are used to 1) assess the major source regions of MRB flow, 2) describe the climatic controls on streamflow in the upper and lower basins , and 3) investigate trends over the instrumental period. Analyses indicate that 72% of MRB runoff is generated by the headwaters in the upper basin and by the lowest portion of the basin near the mouth. Spring precipitation and temperature and winter precipitation impacted by changes in zonal versus meridional flow from the Pacific Ocean play key roles in surface water supply variability in the upper basin. Lower basin flow is significantly correlated with precipitation in late spring and early summer, indicative of Atlantic-influenced circulation variability affecting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Although increases in precipitation in the lower basin are currently overriding the effects of warming temperatures on total MRB flow, the upper basin’s long-term trend toward decreasing flows, reduction in snow versus rain fraction, and warming spring temperatures suggest that the upper basin may less often provide important flow supplements to the lower basin in the future.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Meteorology Society","doi":"10.1175/JHM-D-17-0155.1","usgsCitation":"Wise, E.K., Woodhouse, C.A., McCabe, G.J., Pederson, G.T., and St. Jacques, J., 2018, Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 19, no. 1, p. 161-182, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0155.1.","productDescription":"22 p.","startPage":"161","endPage":"182","ipdsId":"IP-089104","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469027,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/er6r-bm17","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":351220,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Missouri River basin","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -90.2197265625,\n 38.42777351132902\n ],\n [\n -91.97753906249999,\n 41.178653972331674\n ],\n [\n -94.921875,\n 43.54854811091286\n ],\n [\n -104.0185546875,\n 49.095452162534826\n ],\n [\n -111.26953125,\n 49.52520834197442\n ],\n [\n -114.43359375,\n 46.5739667965278\n ],\n [\n -104.94140625,\n 38.58252615935333\n ],\n [\n -90.2197265625,\n 38.42777351132902\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"19","issue":"1","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":2,"text":"Denver PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-01-22","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7acd1ae4b00f54eb20c581","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wise, Erika K.","contributorId":202071,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wise","given":"Erika","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[{"id":27051,"text":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727526,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Woodhouse, Connie A.","contributorId":187601,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Woodhouse","given":"Connie","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":32413,"text":"University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85721","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727527,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"McCabe, Gregory J. 0000-0002-9258-2997 gmccabe@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9258-2997","contributorId":200854,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McCabe","given":"Gregory","email":"gmccabe@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":5044,"text":"National Research Program - Central Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37778,"text":"WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727528,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Pederson, Gregory T. 0000-0002-6014-1425 gpederson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6014-1425","contributorId":3106,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pederson","given":"Gregory","email":"gpederson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727525,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie","contributorId":195063,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"St. Jacques","given":"Jeannine-Marie","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727529,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70195228,"text":"70195228 - 2018 - Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-22T12:50:21","indexId":"70195228","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-06T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3722,"text":"Water Resources Research","onlineIssn":"1944-7973","printIssn":"0043-1397","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries","docAbstract":"With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1002/2017WR021663","usgsCitation":"Woodhouse, C.A., and Pederson, G.T., 2018, Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries: Water Resources Research, v. 54, no. 1, p. 286-300, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021663.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"286","endPage":"300","ipdsId":"IP-082478","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469029,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10150/627610","text":"External Repository"},{"id":351219,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Colorado River","volume":"54","issue":"1","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":2,"text":"Denver PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-01-23","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7acd18e4b00f54eb20c57e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Woodhouse, Connie A.","contributorId":187601,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Woodhouse","given":"Connie","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":32413,"text":"University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85721","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727535,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Pederson, Gregory T. 0000-0002-6014-1425 gpederson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6014-1425","contributorId":3106,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pederson","given":"Gregory","email":"gpederson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727534,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70195250,"text":"70195250 - 2018 - Occupancy modeling of autonomously recorded vocalizations to predict distribution of rallids in tidal wetlands","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-07-13T13:03:41","indexId":"70195250","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-06T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2018","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3750,"text":"Wetlands","onlineIssn":"1943-6246","printIssn":"0277-5212","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Occupancy modeling of autonomously recorded vocalizations to predict distribution of rallids in tidal wetlands","docAbstract":"Conservation and management for a species requires reliable information on its status, distribution, and habitat use. We identified occupancy and distributions of king (Rallus elegans) and clapper (R. crepitans) rail populations in marsh complexes along the Pamunkey and Mattaponi Rivers in Virginia, USA by modeling data on vocalizations recorded from autonomous recording units (ARUs). Occupancy probability for both species combined was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.75) in marshes along the Pamunkey and 0.59 (0.45, 0.72) in marshes along the Mattaponi. Occupancy probability along the Pamunkey was strongly influenced by salinity, increasing logistically by a factor of 1.62 (0.6, 2.65) per parts per thousand of salinity. In contrast, there was not a strong salinity gradient on the Mattaponi and therefore vegetative community structure determined occupancy probability on that river. Estimated detection probability across both marshes was 0.63 (0.62, 0.65), but detection rates decreased as the season progressed. Monitoring wildlife within wetlands presents unique challenges for conservation managers. Our findings provide insight not only into how rails responded to environmental variation but also into the general utility of ARUs for occupancy modeling of the distribution and habitat associations of rails within tidal marsh systems.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1007/s13157-018-1003-z","usgsCitation":"Stiffler, L.L., Anderson, J.T., and Katzner, T., 2018, Occupancy modeling of autonomously recorded vocalizations to predict distribution of rallids in tidal wetlands: Wetlands, v. 38, no. 3, p. 605-612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1003-z.","productDescription":"8 p.","startPage":"605","endPage":"612","ipdsId":"IP-088312","costCenters":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351216,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Virginia","otherGeospatial":"Mattaponi River, Pamunkey River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -76.96678161621094,\n 37.51190453731693\n ],\n [\n -76.75804138183594,\n 37.51190453731693\n ],\n [\n -76.75804138183594,\n 37.6359849542696\n ],\n [\n -76.96678161621094,\n 37.6359849542696\n ],\n [\n -76.96678161621094,\n 37.51190453731693\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"38","issue":"3","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-01-22","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7acd15e4b00f54eb20c576","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Stiffler, Lydia L.","contributorId":198904,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Stiffler","given":"Lydia","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":12432,"text":"West Virginia University","active":true,"usgs":false},{"id":12697,"text":"University of Georgia","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727616,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Anderson, James T.","contributorId":28071,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Anderson","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":12432,"text":"West Virginia University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727617,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Katzner, Todd E. 0000-0003-4503-8435 tkatzner@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4503-8435","contributorId":191353,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Katzner","given":"Todd E.","email":"tkatzner@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727615,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}