Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel longterm “continuous” projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT), comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years) (by modelling SAT and precipitation). A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next 200 kyr into the future, we find that SAT oscillations appear to be primarily influenced by obliquity for the first ∼ 120 kyr, whilst eccentricity is relatively low, after which precession plays a more dominant role. Conversely, variations in precipitation over the entire period demonstrate a strong precessional signal. Overall, we find that the emulator provides a useful and powerful tool for rapidly simulating the long-term evolution of climate, both past and future, due to its relatively high spatial resolution and relatively low computational cost. However, there are uncertainties associated with the approach used, including the inability of the emulator to capture deviations from a quasi-stationary response to the forcing, such as transient adjustments of the deep-ocean temperature and circulation, in addition to its limited range of fixed ice sheet configurations and its requirement for prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
","language":"English","publisher":"European Geosciences Union","doi":"10.5194/cp-2017-57","usgsCitation":"Lord, N.S., Crucifix, M., Lunt, D.J., Thorne, M.C., Bounceur, N., Dowsett, H.J., O’Brien, C.L., and Ridgwell, A., 2017, Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future: Climate of the Past, v. 13, p. 1539-1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-57.","productDescription":"33 p.","startPage":"1539","endPage":"1571","ipdsId":"IP-083123","costCenters":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469214,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-57","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":355675,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"13","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":9,"text":"Reston PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5b6fc50ae4b0f5d57878eaea","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Lord, Natalie S.","contributorId":206300,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lord","given":"Natalie","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740007,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Crucifix, Michel","contributorId":206301,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Crucifix","given":"Michel","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740008,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Lunt, Daniel J.","contributorId":101168,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lunt","given":"Daniel","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740009,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Thorne, Mike C.","contributorId":206302,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Thorne","given":"Mike","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740010,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Bounceur, Nabila","contributorId":206303,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bounceur","given":"Nabila","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740011,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Dowsett, Harry J. 0000-0003-1983-7524 hdowsett@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1983-7524","contributorId":949,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dowsett","given":"Harry","email":"hdowsett@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":740012,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"O’Brien, Charlotte L.","contributorId":206304,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"O’Brien","given":"Charlotte","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740013,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Ridgwell, A.","contributorId":192917,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ridgwell","given":"A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":740014,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8}]}} ,{"id":70198037,"text":"70198037 - 2017 - Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-07-16T10:48:25","indexId":"70198037","displayToPublicDate":"2018-07-09T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2321,"text":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability","docAbstract":"Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short‐term water‐rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short‐term and long‐term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full‐bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half‐meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high‐water‐level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ∼1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low‐frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1‐D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1002/2017JC012730","usgsCitation":"Wang, R., Herdman, L.M., Erikson, L.H., Barnard, P., Hummel, M., and Stacey, M., 2017, Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, v. 122, no. 12, p. 9962-9979, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012730.","productDescription":"18 p.","startPage":"9962","endPage":"9979","ipdsId":"IP-086795","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469215,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jc012730","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":355566,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"122","issue":"12","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-15","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5b46e540e4b060350a15d05d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wang, Ruo-Quian","contributorId":206190,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wang","given":"Ruo-Quian","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":37278,"text":"University of Dundee","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":739743,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Herdman, Liv M. 0000-0002-5444-6441 lherdman@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5444-6441","contributorId":149964,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Herdman","given":"Liv","email":"lherdman@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":474,"text":"New York Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":739741,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Erikson, Li H. 0000-0002-8607-7695 lerikson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8607-7695","contributorId":149963,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Erikson","given":"Li","email":"lerikson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":739744,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Barnard, Patrick L. 0000-0003-1414-6476 pbarnard@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-6476","contributorId":147147,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barnard","given":"Patrick L.","email":"pbarnard@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":739742,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Hummel, Michelle","contributorId":204476,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hummel","given":"Michelle","affiliations":[{"id":36942,"text":"University of California, Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":739745,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Stacey, Mark T.","contributorId":94531,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Stacey","given":"Mark T.","affiliations":[{"id":12776,"text":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":739746,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70197366,"text":"70197366 - 2017 - Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-05-31T15:13:42","indexId":"70197366","displayToPublicDate":"2018-05-31T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3551,"text":"The Condor","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)","title":"Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)","docAbstract":"Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.","language":"English","publisher":"American Ornithological Society","doi":"10.1650/CONDOR-16-165.1","usgsCitation":"Welch, B.C., Boal, C.W., and Skipper, B.R., 2017, Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis): The Condor, v. 119, no. 2, p. 298-307, https://doi.org/10.1650/CONDOR-16-165.1.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"298","endPage":"307","ipdsId":"IP-079361","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469216,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1650/condor-16-165.1","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":354649,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Texas","city":"Lubbock","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -102.32666015625,\n 32.93492866908233\n ],\n [\n -100.8544921875,\n 32.93492866908233\n ],\n [\n -100.8544921875,\n 34.03445260967645\n ],\n [\n -102.32666015625,\n 34.03445260967645\n ],\n [\n -102.32666015625,\n 32.93492866908233\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"119","issue":"2","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":9,"text":"Reston PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5b155df3e4b092d9651e1b90","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Welch, Brandi C.","contributorId":176181,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Welch","given":"Brandi","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":737004,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Boal, Clint W. 0000-0001-6008-8911 cboal@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6008-8911","contributorId":1909,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Boal","given":"Clint","email":"cboal@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":736882,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Skipper, Ben R.","contributorId":198462,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Skipper","given":"Ben","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":737005,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70187004,"text":"sir20175013 - 2017 - The HayWired Earthquake Scenario","interactions":[{"subject":{"id":70187003,"text":"sir20175013v1 - 2017 - The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards","indexId":"sir20175013v1","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"chapter":"A–H","displayTitle":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards","title":"The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards"},"predicate":"IS_PART_OF","object":{"id":70187004,"text":"sir20175013 - 2017 - The HayWired Earthquake Scenario","indexId":"sir20175013","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"title":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario"},"id":1},{"subject":{"id":70195667,"text":"sir20175013v2 - 2021 - The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications","indexId":"sir20175013v2","publicationYear":"2021","noYear":false,"chapter":"I–Q","displayTitle":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications","title":"The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications"},"predicate":"IS_PART_OF","object":{"id":70187004,"text":"sir20175013 - 2017 - The HayWired Earthquake Scenario","indexId":"sir20175013","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"title":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario"},"id":2},{"subject":{"id":70206048,"text":"sir20175013V3 - 2019 - The HayWired earthquake scenario—Societal consequences","indexId":"sir20175013V3","publicationYear":"2019","noYear":false,"chapter":"R–W","displayTitle":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences","title":"The HayWired earthquake scenario—Societal consequences"},"predicate":"IS_PART_OF","object":{"id":70187004,"text":"sir20175013 - 2017 - The HayWired Earthquake Scenario","indexId":"sir20175013","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"title":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario"},"id":3}],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-04-22T20:42:59.787763","indexId":"sir20175013","displayToPublicDate":"2018-04-17T12:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":334,"text":"Scientific Investigations Report","code":"SIR","onlineIssn":"2328-0328","printIssn":"2328-031X","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"2017-5013","title":"The HayWired Earthquake Scenario","docAbstract":"The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.
With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.
The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake?
The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions.
Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future.
As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/sir20175013","usgsCitation":"Detweiler, S.T., and Wein, A.M., eds., 2017, The HayWired earthquake scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013.","productDescription":"3 Volumes","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":438111,"rank":11,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9HKJU90","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Voice and data telecommunications restoration curves for 15 counties affected by the April 18, 2018, M7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock"},{"id":438110,"rank":11,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LMGHRV","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Fire following the Mw 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario"},{"id":438109,"rank":11,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P94Z8BOZ","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Estimated geospatial and tabular damages and vulnerable population distributions resulting from exposure to multiple hazards by the M7.0 HayWired scenario on April 18, 2018, for 17 counties in the San Francisco Bay region, California"},{"id":438108,"rank":11,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9CLW518","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Economic subareas of interest data for areas containing concentrated damage resulting from the April 18, 2018, HayWired earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay region, California"},{"id":438107,"rank":11,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P94HDTD8","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Results of individual and collocated lifeline exposure to hazards (and associated hazard and multi-hazard exposure surface data) resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake sequence for counties and cities in the San Francisco Bay area, California"},{"id":438106,"rank":11,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9UWWM0W","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Selected products of the scenario HayWired earthquake sequence Hazus analyses for 17 counties in the San Francisco Bay region, California"},{"id":353492,"rank":5,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20183016","text":"Fact Sheet 2018-3016","description":"FS 2018-3016","linkHelpText":"– The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—We Can Outsmart Disaster"},{"id":399529,"rank":10,"type":{"id":36,"text":"NGMDB Index Page"},"url":"https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Prodesc/proddesc_109753.htm"},{"id":399528,"rank":9,"type":{"id":36,"text":"NGMDB Index Page"},"url":"https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Prodesc/proddesc_109190.htm"},{"id":399527,"rank":8,"type":{"id":36,"text":"NGMDB Index Page"},"url":"https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Prodesc/proddesc_107137.htm"},{"id":397249,"rank":7,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://geonarrative.usgs.gov/liquefactionandsealevelrise/","text":"Liquefaction and Sea-Level Rise","linkHelpText":"– A USGS storymap presenting the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California for the M7.0 ‘HayWired’ earthquake scenario along the Hayward Fault"},{"id":392896,"rank":6,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20213054","text":"Fact Sheet 2021-3054","linkHelpText":"– The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences"},{"id":368403,"rank":4,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013V3","text":"Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013 Volume 3","description":"SIR 2017-5013 V3","linkHelpText":"– The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences"},{"id":353491,"rank":3,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013v2","text":"Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013 Volume 2","description":"SIR 2017-5013 V2","linkHelpText":"– The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications"},{"id":340064,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5013/coverthb1.jpg"},{"id":353442,"rank":2,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013v1","text":"Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013 Volume 1","description":"SIR 2017-5013 V1","linkHelpText":"– The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"Hayward Fault","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -123,\n 37\n ],\n [\n -121,\n 37\n ],\n [\n -121,\n 38.65\n ],\n [\n -123,\n 38.65\n ],\n [\n -123,\n 37\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Contact Information, Menlo Park, Calif.
Office—Earthquake Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
345 Middlefield Road, MS 977
Menlo Park, CA 94025
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/
The strongly deformed Yuleken porphyry Cu deposit (YPCD) occurs in the Kalaxiangar porphyry Cu belt (KPCB), which occupies the central area of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) between the Sawu’er island arc and the Altay Terrane in northern Xinjiang. The YPCD is one of several typical subduction-related deposits in the KPCB, which has undergone syn-collisional and post-collisional metallogenic overprinting. The YPCD is characterized by three pyrite-forming stages, namely a hydrothermal stage A (Py I), a syn-ductile deformation stage B (Py II) characterized by Cu-Au enrichment, and a fracture-filling stage C (Py III). In this study, we conducted systematic petrographic and geochemical studies of pyrites and coexist biotite, which formed during different stages, in order to constrain the physicochemical conditions of the ore formation. Euhedral, fragmented Py I has low Pb and high Te and Se concentration and Ni contents are low with Co/Ni ratios mostly between 1 and 10 (average 9.00). Py I is further characterized by enrichments of Bi, As, Ni, Cu, Te and Se in the core relative to the rim domains. Anhedral round Py II has moderate Co and Ni contents with high Co/Ni ratios >10 (average 95.2), and average contents of 46.5 ppm Pb and 5.80 ppm Te. Py II is further characterized by decreasing Bi, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag, Te, Mo, Sb and Au contents from the rim to the core domains. Annealed Py III has the lowest Co content of all pyrite types with Co/Ni ratios mostly <0.1 (average 1.33). Furthermore, Py III has average contents of 3.31 ppm Pb, 1.33 ppm Te and 94.6 ppm Se. In addition, Fe does not correlate with Cu and S in the Py I and Py III, while Py II displays a negative correlation between Fe and Cu as well as a positive correlation between Fe and S. Therefore, pyrites which formed during different tectonic regimes also have different chemical compositions. Biotite geothermometer and oxygen fugacity estimates display increasing temperatures and oxygen fugacities from stage A to stage B, while temperature and oxygen fugacities decrease from stage B to stage C. The Co/Ni ratio of pyrite depends discriminates between the different mineralizing stages in the Yuleken porphyry copper deposit: Py II, associated with the deformation stage B and Cu-enrichment, shows higher Co/Ni ratios and enrichments of Pb, Zn, Mo, Te and Sb than the pyrites formed during the other two stages. The Co/Ni ratio of pyrite can not only apply to discriminate the submarine exhalative, magmatic or sedimentary origins for ore deposits but also can distinguish different ore-forming stages in a single porphyry Cu deposit. Thus, Co/Ni ratio of pyrites may act as an important exploration tool to distinguish pyrites from Cu-rich versus barren area. Furthermore, the distribution of Cu, Mo, Pb, Au, Bi, Sb and Zn in the variably deformed pyrite is proportional to the extent of deformation of the pyrites, indicating in accordance with variable physicochemical conditions different element migration behavior during the different stages of deformation and, thus, mineralisation.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.oregeorev.2017.10.019","usgsCitation":"Hong, T., Xu, X., Gao, J., Peters, S., Li, J., Cao, M., Xiang, P., Wu, C., and You, J., 2017, Element migration of pyrites during ductile deformation of the Yuleken porphyry Cu deposit (NW-China): Ore Geology Reviews, v. 100, p. 205-219, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oregeorev.2017.10.019.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"205","endPage":"219","ipdsId":"IP-092178","costCenters":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":352972,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"100","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee788e4b0da30c1bfc2ba","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hong, Tao","contributorId":201265,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hong","given":"Tao","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724856,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Xu, Xing-Wang","contributorId":201266,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Xu","given":"Xing-Wang","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724857,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Gao, Jungang","contributorId":201267,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Gao","given":"Jungang","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724858,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Peters, Stephen 0000-0002-4431-5675 speters@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4431-5675","contributorId":167263,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Peters","given":"Stephen","email":"speters@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":724855,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Li, Jilei","contributorId":201276,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Li","given":"Jilei","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724859,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Cao, Mingjian","contributorId":201277,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Cao","given":"Mingjian","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724860,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Xiang, Peng","contributorId":201270,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Xiang","given":"Peng","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724861,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Wu, Chu","contributorId":201272,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wu","given":"Chu","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724862,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"You, Jun","contributorId":201273,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"You","given":"Jun","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":724863,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9}]}} ,{"id":70185961,"text":"sim3378 - 2017 - Hydrogeologic characteristics and geospatial analysis of water-table changes in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas River Valley, southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-03-08T14:30:44","indexId":"sim3378","displayToPublicDate":"2018-03-08T15:25:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":333,"text":"Scientific Investigations Map","code":"SIM","onlineIssn":"2329-132X","printIssn":"2329-1311","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"3378","title":"Hydrogeologic characteristics and geospatial analysis of water-table changes in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas River Valley, southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015","docAbstract":"The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District measures groundwater levels periodically in about 100 wells completed in the alluvial material of the Arkansas River Valley in Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, and Prowers Counties in southeastern Colorado, of which 95 are used for the analysis in this report. The purpose of this report is to provide information to water-resource administrators, managers, planners, and users about groundwater characteristics in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas Valley extending roughly 150 miles between Pueblo Reservoir and the Colorado-Kansas State line. This report includes three map sheets showing (1) bedrock altitude at the base of the alluvium of the lower Arkansas Valley; (2) estimated spring-to-spring and fall-to-fall changes in water-table altitude between 2002, 2008, and 2015; and (3) estimated saturated thickness in the alluvium during spring and fall of 2002, 2008, and 2015, and thickness of the alluvium in the lower Arkansas Valley. Water-level changes were analyzed by geospatial interpolation methods.
Available data included all water-level measurements made between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2015; however, only data from fall and spring of 2002, 2008, and 2015 are mapped in this report. To account for the effect of John Martin Reservoir in Bent County, Colorado, lake levels at the reservoir were assigned to points along the approximate shoreline and were included in the water-level dataset. After combining the water-level measurements and lake levels, inverse distance weighting was used to interpolate between points and calculate the altitude of the water table for fall and spring of each year for comparisons. Saturated thickness was calculated by subtracting the bedrock surface from the water-table surface. Thickness of the alluvium was calculated by subtracting the bedrock surface from land surface using a digital elevation model.
In order to analyze the response of the alluvium to varying environmental and anthropogenic conditions, the percentage of area of the lower Arkansas Valley showing an absolute change of 3 feet or less was calculated for each of the six water-table altitude change maps. For fall water-table altitude change maps, the periods between 2002 and 2008, 2008 and 2015, and 2002 and 2015 showed that 86.5 percent, 85.2 percent, and 66.3 percent of the study area, respectively, showed a net change of 3 feet or less. In the spring water-table altitude change maps these periods showed a net change of 3 feet or less in 94.4 percent, 96.1 percent, and 90.2 percent of the study area, respectively. While the estimated change in water-table altitude was slightly greater and more variable in fall-to-fall comparisons, these high percentages of area with relatively small net changes indicated that, at least in comparisons of the years presented, there was not a large amount of fluctuation in the altitude of the water table.
The saturated thickness in the lower Arkansas Valley was between 25 and 50 feet in 34.4 to 35.9 percent of the study area, depending on the season and year. Between 30.2 and 35.6 percent of the area showed saturated thicknesses between 0 and 25 feet. Less than 1 percent of the area showed a saturated thickness greater than 200 feet in all mapped seasons and years.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/sim3378","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District","usgsCitation":"Holmberg, M.J., 2017, Hydrogeologic characteristics and geospatial analysis of water-table changes in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas River Valley, southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3378, pamphlet 9 p., 3 sheets, scale 1:130,000 and 1:575, 000, https://doi.org/10.3133/sim3378.","productDescription":"Report: vi, 9 p.; 3 Sheets: 43.0 x 32.0 inches or smaller; 2 Appendixes; Data Release; Read Me","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"Y","ipdsId":"IP-081751","costCenters":[{"id":191,"text":"Colorado Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":341216,"rank":5,"type":{"id":17,"text":"Plate"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3378_sheet3.pdf","text":"Sheet 3","size":"17.2 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIM 3378 Sheet 3","linkHelpText":" Estimated Saturated Thickness of the Alluvium, Spring 2002, 2008, and 2015; Fall, 2002, 2008, and 2015, and Estimated Thickness of the Alluvium in the Lower Arkansas River Valley, Southeast Colorado"},{"id":341219,"rank":8,"type":{"id":20,"text":"Read Me"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3378Readme.txt","text":"Read Me","size":"12.0 kB","linkFileType":{"id":2,"text":"txt"},"description":"SIM 3378 Read Me"},{"id":341217,"rank":6,"type":{"id":3,"text":"Appendix"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3387_appendix1.xlsx","text":"Appendix 1","size":"36.0 kB","linkFileType":{"id":3,"text":"xlsx"},"description":"SIM 3378 Appendix 1","linkHelpText":"Well Information and Measured Water Levels in the lower Arkansas Valley, Southeast Colorado, 2001–2015"},{"id":341213,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/coverthb.jpg"},{"id":341303,"rank":9,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F71G0JF6","text":"USGS data release","description":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Hydrogeologic Characteristics and Geospatial Analysis of Water-Table Changes in the Alluvium of the Lower Arkansas River Valley, Southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015"},{"id":341215,"rank":4,"type":{"id":17,"text":"Plate"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3378_sheet2.pdf","text":"Sheet 2","size":"17.1 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIM 3378 Sheet 2","linkHelpText":"Estimated Change in Water-Table Altitude, Spring-to-Spring, 2002–2008, 2018–2015, and 2002–2015; Fall-to-Fall, 2002–2008, 2018–2015, and 2002–2015; and Locations of Monitoring Wells in the Alluvium of the Lower Arkansas River Valley, Southeast Colorado"},{"id":341218,"rank":7,"type":{"id":3,"text":"Appendix"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3387_appendix2.pdf","text":"Appendix 2","size":"572 kB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIM 3378 Appendix 2","linkHelpText":" Hydrographs Showing Water-Table Altitude in Select Monitoring Wells in the lower Arkansas Valley and Water-Surface Altitude in John Martin Reservoir, Southeast Colorado, 2001–2015"},{"id":341223,"rank":3,"type":{"id":17,"text":"Plate"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3378_sheet1.pdf","text":"Sheet 1","size":"8.02 MB ","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIM 3378 Sheet 1","linkHelpText":" Bedrock Altitude at the Base of the Alluvium of the Lower Arkansas River Valley, Southeast Colorado"},{"id":341221,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3378/sim3378.pdf","text":"Report","size":"1.25 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"SIM 3378 Report"}],"country":"United States","state":"Colorado","otherGeospatial":"Arkansas River Valley","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -104.66125488281249,\n 37.93986540897977\n ],\n [\n -102.041015625,\n 37.93986540897977\n ],\n [\n -102.041015625,\n 38.29424797320529\n ],\n [\n -104.66125488281249,\n 38.29424797320529\n ],\n [\n -104.66125488281249,\n 37.93986540897977\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Colorado Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
Box 25046, MS-415
Denver, CO 80225-0046
We directly compare trip willingness to pay (WTP) values between 1985 and 2015 stated preference surveys of private party Grand Canyon boaters using identically designed valuation methods. The temporal gap of 30 years between these two studies is well beyond that of any tests of WTP temporal stability in the literature. Comparisons were made of mean WTP estimates for four hypothetical Colorado River flow level scenarios. WTP values from the 1985 survey were adjusted to 2015 levels using the consumer price index. Mean WTP precision was estimated through simulation. No statistically significant differences were detected between the adjusted Bishop et al. (1987) and the current study mean WTP estimates. Examination of pooled models of the data from the studies suggest that while the estimated WTP values are stable over time, the underlying valuation functions may not be, particularly when the data and models are corrected to account for differing bid structures and possible panel effects.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1002/2017WR020729","usgsCitation":"Neher, C.J., Duffield, J., Bair, L.S., Patterson, D.A., and Neher, K., 2017, Testing the limits of temporal stability: Willingness to pay values among Grand Canyon whitewater boaters across decades: Water Resources Research, v. 53, no. 12, p. 10108-10120, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020729.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"10108","endPage":"10120","ipdsId":"IP-084682","costCenters":[{"id":568,"text":"Southwest Biological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":461315,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/2017wr020729","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":438113,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F7M044C9","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Grand Canyon Whitewater Boater Data, Temporal Stability of Willingness to Pay Values"},{"id":351777,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Arizona","otherGeospatial":"Grand Canyon","volume":"53","issue":"12","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee788e4b0da30c1bfc2be","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Neher, Chris J.","contributorId":202569,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Neher","given":"Chris","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":36482,"text":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Montana","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728925,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Duffield, John","contributorId":202570,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Duffield","given":"John","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36482,"text":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Montana","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728926,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Bair, Lucas S. 0000-0002-9911-3624 lbair@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9911-3624","contributorId":5270,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bair","given":"Lucas","email":"lbair@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":568,"text":"Southwest Biological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728924,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Patterson, David A.","contributorId":175326,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Patterson","given":"David","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":36482,"text":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Montana","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728927,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Neher, Katherine","contributorId":202571,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Neher","given":"Katherine","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36483,"text":"Bioeconomics, Inc. Missoula, MT","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728928,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70195159,"text":"70195159 - 2017 - Control of landslide volume and hazard by glacial stratigraphic architecture, Northwest Washington state, USA","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T09:31:33","indexId":"70195159","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-07T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1796,"text":"Geology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Control of landslide volume and hazard by glacial stratigraphic architecture, Northwest Washington state, USA","docAbstract":"Landslide volumes span many orders of magnitude, but large-volume slides tend to travel\nfarther and consequently can pose a greater hazard. In northwest Washington State, USA, a\nlandscape abounding with landslides big and small, the recent occurrence of the large-volume\nand tragically deadly State Route 530 (Oso) landslide is a stark reminder of the hazards\nassociated with glacial terraces lining valleys of the western Cascade Range. What controls\nthe differences in location and size of these slope failures? Here, we examine the control on\nlandslide volume and failure style by terrace sedimentary architecture. We analyze lidar\ntopographic data in three nearby valleys and find significant variation in landslide deposit\nvolumes, morphology, and relative mobility in each valley. Geologic data show that each site\ndiffers in the thickness and position of outwash, tills, and glaciolacustrine clays. Combining\na three-dimensional limit-equilibrium slope-stability analysis (Scoops3D) with simulations\nof variably saturated groundwater flow (VS2Dt), we show that landslide volumes are highly\nsensitive both to the distribution of material strength as well as the location of perched water\ntables. Modeled landslides match observed failure sizes and depths in all valleys when the\neffects of variably saturated groundwater flow are included. The position and thickness of\nlow-strength strata act as first-order controls on landslide volume, with peak volumes for\nstratigraphic geometries similar to that of the valley containing the Oso landslide. Knowledge\nof feedbacks between lithology and hydrology is therefore critical to assess the landslide\nhazard and evolution of landscapes composed of stratigraphically layered units.","language":"English","publisher":"Geological Society of America","doi":"10.1130/G39691.1","usgsCitation":"Perkins, J., Reid, M.E., and Schmidt, K.M., 2017, Control of landslide volume and hazard by glacial stratigraphic architecture, Northwest Washington state, USA: Geology, v. 45, no. 12, p. 1139-1142, https://doi.org/10.1130/G39691.1.","productDescription":"4 p.","startPage":"1139","endPage":"1142","ipdsId":"IP-086196","costCenters":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":351303,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Washington","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -126.7822265625,\n 45.9511496866914\n ],\n [\n -119.0478515625,\n 45.9511496866914\n ],\n [\n -119.0478515625,\n 49.56797785892715\n ],\n [\n -126.7822265625,\n 49.56797785892715\n ],\n [\n -126.7822265625,\n 45.9511496866914\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"45","issue":"12","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-10-19","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e6de4b00f54eb22929b","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Perkins, Jonathan","contributorId":201949,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Perkins","given":"Jonathan","affiliations":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727247,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Reid, Mark E. 0000-0002-5595-1503 mreid@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5595-1503","contributorId":1167,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reid","given":"Mark","email":"mreid@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":186,"text":"Coastal and Marine Geology Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":617,"text":"Volcano Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727248,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Schmidt, Kevin M. 0000-0003-2365-8035 kschmidt@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2365-8035","contributorId":1985,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schmidt","given":"Kevin","email":"kschmidt@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727249,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70195020,"text":"70195020 - 2017 - Effects of lava heating on volatile-rich slopes on Io","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-11-01T14:42:54","indexId":"70195020","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-02T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2317,"text":"Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Effects of lava heating on volatile-rich slopes on Io","docAbstract":"The upper crust of Io may be very rich in volatile sulfur and SO2. The surface is also highly volcanically active, and slopes may be warmed by radiant heat from the lava. This is particularly the case in paterae, which commonly host volcanic eruptions and long-lived lava lakes. Paterae slopes are highly variable, but some are greater than 70°. I model the heating of a volatile slope for two end-member cases: instantaneous emplacement of a large sheet flow, and persistent heating by a long-lived lava lake. In general, single flows can briefly raise sulfur to the melting temperature, or drive a modest amount of sublimation of SO2. Persistently lava-covered surfaces will drive much more significant geomorphic effects, with potentially significant sublimation and slope retreat. In addition to the direct effects, heating is likely to weaken slope materials and may trigger mass wasting. Thus, if the upper crust of Io is rich in these volatile species, future missions with high-resolution imaging are likely to observe actively retreating slopes around lava lakes and other locations of frequent eruptions.","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1002/2016JE005177","usgsCitation":"Dundas, C.M., 2017, Effects of lava heating on volatile-rich slopes on Io: Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets, v. 122, p. 546-559, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JE005177.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"546","endPage":"559","ipdsId":"IP-077825","costCenters":[{"id":131,"text":"Astrogeology Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":350986,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"122","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-03-20","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7586d6e4b00f54eb1d81da","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dundas, Colin M. 0000-0003-2343-7224 cdundas@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2343-7224","contributorId":2937,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dundas","given":"Colin","email":"cdundas@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":131,"text":"Astrogeology Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726594,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70194990,"text":"70194990 - 2017 - Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-05T10:17:23","indexId":"70194990","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-02T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3627,"text":"Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model","docAbstract":"Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e.g., rye and early planting), due to warmer temperatures. According to simulation results, WCCs were effective to mitigate nitrate loads accelerated by FCCs and therefore the role of WCCs in mitigating nitrate loads is even more important in the given FCCs.","language":"English","publisher":"ASABE","doi":"10.13031/trans.12390","usgsCitation":"Lee, S., Sadeghi, A.M., Yeo, I., McCarty, G.W., and Hively, W., 2017, Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model: Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, v. 60, no. 6, p. 1939-1955, https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.12390.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"1939","endPage":"1955","ipdsId":"IP-090236","costCenters":[{"id":242,"text":"Eastern Geographic Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":502649,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"text":"External Repository"},{"id":350954,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Chesapeake Bay","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -77.574462890625,\n 37.055177106660814\n ],\n [\n -74.827880859375,\n 37.055177106660814\n ],\n [\n -74.827880859375,\n 39.816975090490004\n ],\n [\n -77.574462890625,\n 39.816975090490004\n ],\n [\n -77.574462890625,\n 37.055177106660814\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"60","issue":"6","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":9,"text":"Reston PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7586d8e4b00f54eb1d81e9","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Lee, Sangchul","contributorId":201237,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lee","given":"Sangchul","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726407,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Sadeghi, Ali M.","contributorId":131147,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Sadeghi","given":"Ali","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":7262,"text":"USDA-ARS, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726409,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Yeo, In-Young","contributorId":131145,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Yeo","given":"In-Young","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":7261,"text":"Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726408,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"McCarty, Gregory W.","contributorId":192367,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McCarty","given":"Gregory","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726410,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Hively, W. 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Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/ece3.3685","usgsCitation":"Sample, C., Fryxell, J., Bieri, J., Federico, P., Earl, J., Wiederholt, R., Mattsson, B., Flockhart, T., Nicol, S., Diffendorfer, J., Thogmartin, W.E., Erickson, R.A., and Norris, D.R., 2017, A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics: Ecology and Evolution, v. 8, no. 1, p. 493-508, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3685.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"493","endPage":"508","ipdsId":"IP-084172","costCenters":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469220,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3685","text":"Publisher Index 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Tucson","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726533,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Mattsson, Brady J.","contributorId":171612,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mattsson","given":"Brady J.","affiliations":[{"id":26928,"text":"Univ. of Vienna","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726534,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Flockhart, Tyler","contributorId":201601,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Flockhart","given":"Tyler","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":12660,"text":"University of Guelph","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726535,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Nicol, Sam","contributorId":171610,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Nicol","given":"Sam","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":26927,"text":"CSIRO, 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Ryan","contributorId":59734,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Norris","given":"D.","email":"","middleInitial":"Ryan","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726539,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":13}]}} ,{"id":70195017,"text":"70195017 - 2017 - Estimating the impact of oyster restoration scenarios on transient fish production","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-02T14:11:54","indexId":"70195017","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-02T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3271,"text":"Restoration Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Estimating the impact of oyster restoration scenarios on transient fish production","docAbstract":"Oyster reef restoration projects are increasing in number both to enhance oyster density and to retain valuable ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs. Although some oyster restoration projects have demonstrated success by increasing density and biomass of transient fish, it still remains a challenge to quantify the effects of oyster restoration on transient fish communities. We developed a bioenergetics model to assess the impact of selected oyster reef restoration scenarios on associated transient fish species. We used the model to analyze the impact of changes in (1) oyster population carrying capacity; (2) oyster population growth rate; and (3) diet preference of transient fish on oyster reef development and associated transient fish species. Our model results indicate that resident fish biomass is directly affected by oyster restoration and oyster biomass, and oyster restoration can have cascading impacts on transient fish biomass. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of a favorable oyster population growth rate during early restoration years, as it can lead to rapid increases in mean oyster biomass and biomass of transient fish species. The model also revealed that a transient fish's diet solely dependent on oyster reef-derived prey could limit the biomass of transient fish species, emphasizing the importance of habitat connectivity in estuarine areas to enhance transient fish species biomass. Simple bioenergetics models can be developed to understand the dynamics of a system and make qualitative predictions of management and restoration scenarios.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/rec.12498","usgsCitation":"McCoy, E., Borrett, S.R., LaPeyre, M.K., and Peterson, B.J., 2017, Estimating the impact of oyster restoration scenarios on transient fish production: Restoration Ecology, v. 25, no. 5, p. 798-809, https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.12498.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"798","endPage":"809","ipdsId":"IP-079135","costCenters":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":350977,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Louisiana","volume":"25","issue":"5","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":9,"text":"Reston PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-02-02","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7586d6e4b00f54eb1d81dd","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"McCoy, Elizabeth","contributorId":201616,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McCoy","given":"Elizabeth","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726577,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Borrett, Stuart R.","contributorId":201617,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Borrett","given":"Stuart","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726578,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"LaPeyre, Megan K. 0000-0001-9936-2252 mlapeyre@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9936-2252","contributorId":585,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"LaPeyre","given":"Megan","email":"mlapeyre@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726576,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Peterson, Bradley J.","contributorId":84502,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Peterson","given":"Bradley","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726579,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70194999,"text":"70194999 - 2017 - Host susceptibility to snake fungal disease is highly dispersed across phylogenetic and functional trait space","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-02T13:46:24","indexId":"70194999","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-02T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":5010,"text":"Science Advances","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Host susceptibility to snake fungal disease is highly dispersed across phylogenetic and functional trait space","docAbstract":"Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) reduce host population sizes, cause extinction, disassemble communities, and have indirect negative effects on human well-being. Fungal EIDs have reduced population abundances in amphibians and bats across many species over large areas. The recent emergence of snake fungal disease (SFD) may have caused declines in some snake populations in the Eastern United States (EUS), which is home to a phylogenetically and ecologically diverse assembly of 98 taxa. SFD has been documented in only 23 naturally occuring species, although this is likely an underestimate of the number of susceptible taxa. Using several novel methods, including artificial neural networks, we combine phylogenetic and trait-based community estimates from all taxa in this region to show that SFD hosts are both phylogenetically and ecologically randomly dispersed. This might indicate that other species of snakes in the EUS could be currently infected or susceptible to SFD. Our models also indicate that information about key traits that enhance susceptiblity is lacking. Surveillance should consider that all snake species and habitats likely harbor this pathogen.","language":"English","publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.1701387","usgsCitation":"Burbrink, F.T., Lorch, J.M., and Lips, K.R., 2017, Host susceptibility to snake fungal disease is highly dispersed across phylogenetic and functional trait space: Science Advances, v. 3, no. 12, e1701387; 9 p., https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701387.","productDescription":"e1701387; 9 p.","ipdsId":"IP-081412","costCenters":[{"id":456,"text":"National Wildlife Health Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":461317,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701387","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":350945,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"3","issue":"12","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":15,"text":"Madison PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7586d8e4b00f54eb1d81e6","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Burbrink, Frank T.","contributorId":201581,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Burbrink","given":"Frank","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":36210,"text":"The American Museum of Natural History","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726507,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Lorch, Jeffrey M. 0000-0003-2239-1252 jlorch@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1252","contributorId":5565,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lorch","given":"Jeffrey","email":"jlorch@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":456,"text":"National Wildlife Health Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726506,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Lips, Karen R.","contributorId":26258,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lips","given":"Karen","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726508,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70195022,"text":"70195022 - 2017 - Granular flows at recurring slope lineae on Mars indicate a limited role for liquid water","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-02T16:16:35","indexId":"70195022","displayToPublicDate":"2018-02-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2845,"text":"Nature Geoscience","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Granular flows at recurring slope lineae on Mars indicate a limited role for liquid water","docAbstract":"Recent liquid water flow on Mars has been proposed based on geomorphological features, such as gullies. Recurring slope lineae — seasonal flows that are darker than their surroundings — are candidate locations for seeping liquid water on Mars today, but their formation mechanism remains unclear. Topographical analysis shows that the terminal slopes of recurring slope lineae match the stopping angle for granular flows of cohesionless sand in active Martian aeolian dunes. In Eos Chasma, linea lengths vary widely and are longer where there are more extensive angle-of-repose slopes, inconsistent with models for water sources. These observations suggest that recurring slope lineae are granular flows. The preference for warm seasons and the detection of hydrated salts are consistent with some role for water in their initiation. However, liquid water volumes may be small or zero, alleviating planetary protection concerns about habitable environments.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer Nature","doi":"10.1038/s41561-017-0012-5","usgsCitation":"Dundas, C.M., McEwen, A.S., Chojnacki, M., Milazzo, M.P., Byrne, S., McElwaine, J., and Urso, A., 2017, Granular flows at recurring slope lineae on Mars indicate a limited role for liquid water: Nature Geoscience, v. 10, p. 903-907, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0012-5.","productDescription":"5 p.","startPage":"903","endPage":"907","ipdsId":"IP-079976","costCenters":[{"id":131,"text":"Astrogeology Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469221,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0012-5","text":"External Repository"},{"id":350995,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"10","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-11-20","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7586d8e4b00f54eb1d81ee","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dundas, Colin M. 0000-0003-2343-7224 cdundas@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2343-7224","contributorId":2937,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dundas","given":"Colin","email":"cdundas@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":131,"text":"Astrogeology Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726602,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"McEwen, Alfred S.","contributorId":61657,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McEwen","given":"Alfred","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":7042,"text":"University of Arizona","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726603,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Chojnacki, Matthew","contributorId":201621,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Chojnacki","given":"Matthew","affiliations":[{"id":27205,"text":"U. Arizona","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726604,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Milazzo, Moses P. 0000-0002-9101-2191 moses@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9101-2191","contributorId":4811,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Milazzo","given":"Moses","email":"moses@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":131,"text":"Astrogeology Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":726605,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Byrne, Shane","contributorId":192609,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Byrne","given":"Shane","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":726606,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"McElwaine, Jim","contributorId":201623,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McElwaine","given":"Jim","affiliations":[{"id":25252,"text":"Durham University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726607,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Urso, Anna","contributorId":173270,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Urso","given":"Anna","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":27205,"text":"U. Arizona","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":726608,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70198023,"text":"70198023 - 2017 - Geologic overview of the Mars Science Laboratory rover mission at the Kimberley, Gale crater, Mars","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-07-06T14:36:28","indexId":"70198023","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-30T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2317,"text":"Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Geologic overview of the Mars Science Laboratory rover mission at the Kimberley, Gale crater, Mars","docAbstract":"The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover completed a detailed investigation at the Kimberley waypoint within Gale crater from sols 571-634 using its full science instrument payload. From orbital images examined early in the Curiosity mission, the Kimberley region had been identified as a high-priority science target based on its clear stratigraphic relationships in a layered sedimentary sequence that had been exposed by differential erosion. Observations of the stratigraphic sequence at the Kimberley made by Curiosity are consistent with deposition in a prograding, fluvio-deltaic system during the late Noachian to early Hesperian, prior to the existence of most of Mt. Sharp. Geochemical and mineralogic analyses suggest that sediment deposition likely took place under cold conditions with relatively low water-to-rock ratios. Based on elevated K2O abundances throughout the Kimberley formation, an alkali feldspar protolith is likely one of several igneous sources from which the sediments were derived. After deposition, the rocks underwent multiple episodes of diagenetic alteration with different aqueous chemistries and redox conditions, as evidenced by the presence of Ca-sulfate veins, Mn-oxide fracture-fills, and erosion-resistant nodules. More recently, the Kimberley has been subject to significant aeolian abrasion and removal of sediments to create modern topography that slopes away from Mt. Sharp, a process that has continued to the present day.
The Washington West 30’ × 60’ quadrangle covers an area of approximately 4,884 square kilometers (1,343 square miles) in and west of the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. The eastern part of the area is highly urbanized, and more rural areas to the west are rapidly being developed. The area lies entirely within the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin and mostly within the Potomac River watershed. It contains part of the Nation's main north-south transportation corridor east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, consisting of Interstate Highway 95, U.S. Highway 1, and railroads, as well as parts of the Capital Beltway and Interstate Highway 66. Extensive Federal land holdings in addition to those in Washington, D.C., include the Marine Corps Development and Education Command at Quantico, Fort Belvoir, Vint Hill Farms Station, the Naval Ordnance Station at Indian Head, the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historic Park, Great Falls Park, and Manassas National Battlefield Park. The quadrangle contains most of Washington, D.C.; part or all of Arlington, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Rappahannock, and Stafford Counties in northern Virginia; and parts of Charles, Montgomery, and Prince Georges Counties in Maryland.
The Washington West quadrangle spans four geologic provinces. From west to east these provinces are the Blue Ridge province, the early Mesozoic Culpeper basin, the Piedmont province, and the Coastal Plain province. There is some overlap in ages of rocks in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces. The Blue Ridge province, which occupies the western part of the quadrangle, contains metamorphic and igneous rocks of Mesoproterozoic to Early Cambrian age. Mesoproterozoic (Grenville-age) rocks are mostly granitic gneisses, although older metaigneous rocks are found as xenoliths. Small areas of Neoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks nonconformably overlie Mesoproterozoic rocks. Neoproterozoic granitic rocks of the Robertson River Igneous Suite intruded the Mesoproterozoic rocks. The Mesoproterozoic rocks are nonconformably overlain by Neoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks of the Fauquier and Lynchburg Groups, which in turn are overlain by metabasalt of the Catoctin Formation. The Catoctin Formation is overlain by Lower Cambrian clastic metasedimentary rocks of the Chilhowee Group. The Piedmont province is exposed in the east-central part of the map area, between overlapping sedimentary units of the Culpeper basin on the west and those of the Coastal Plain province on the east. In this area, the Piedmont province contains Neoproterozoic and lower Paleozoic metamorphosed sedimentary, volcanic, and plutonic rocks. Allochthonous mélange complexes on the western side of the Piedmont are bordered on the east by metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation, which has been interpreted as part of volcanic arc. The mélange complexes are unconformably overlain by metasedimentary rocks of the Popes Head Formation. The Silurian and Ordovician Quantico Formation is the youngest metasedimentary unit in this part of the Piedmont. Igneous rocks include the Garrisonville Mafic Complex, transported ultramafic and mafic inclusions in mélanges, monzogranite of the Dale City pluton, and Ordovician tonalitic and granitic plutons. Jurassic diabase dikes are the youngest intrusions. The fault boundary between rocks of the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces is concealed beneath the Culpeper basin in this area but is exposed farther south. Early Mesozoic rocks of the Culpeper basin unconformably overlie those of the Piedmont and Blue Ridge provinces in the central part of the quadrangle. The north-northeast-trending extensional basin contains Upper Triassic to Lower Jurassic nonmarine sedimentary rocks. Lower Jurassic sedimentary strata are interbedded with basalt flows, and both Upper Triassic and Lower Jurassic strata are intruded by diabase of Early Jurassic age. The Bull Run Mountain fault, a major Mesozoic normal fault characterized by down-to-the-east displacement, separates rocks of the Culpeper basin from those of the Blue Ridge province on the west. On the east, the contact between rocks of the Culpeper basin and those of the Piedmont province is an unconformity, which has been locally disrupted by normal faults. Sediments of the Coastal Plain province unconformably overlie rocks of the Piedmont province along the Fall Zone and occupy the eastern part of the quadrangle. Lower Cretaceous deposits of the Potomac Formation consist of fluvial-deltaic gravels, sands, silts, and clays. Discontinuous fluvial and estuarine terrace deposits of Pleistocene and middle- to late-Tertiary age flank the modern Potomac River valley unconformable capping these Cretaceous strata and the crystalline basement where the Cretaceous has been removed by erosion. East of the Potomac River, the Potomac Formation is onlapped and unconformably overlain by a westward thinning wedge of marine sedimentary deposits of Late Cretaceous and early- and late-Tertiary age. Basement rooted Coastal Plain faults of Tertiary to Quaternary age occur along the Fall Zone and this part of the inner Coastal Plain. These Coastal Plain faults have geomorphic expression that appear to influence river drainage patterns.
The geologic map of the Washington West quadrangle is intended to serve as a foundation for applying geologic information to problems involving land use decisions, groundwater availability and quality, earth resources such as natural aggregate for construction, assessment of natural hazards, and engineering and environmental studies for waste disposal sites and construction projects. This 1:100,000-scale map is mainly based on more detailed geologic mapping at a scale of 1:24,000.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20171142","usgsCitation":"Lyttle, P.T., Aleinikoff, J.N., Burton, W.C., Crider, E.A., Jr., Drake, A.A., Jr., Froelich, A.J., Horton, J.W., Jr., Kasselas, Gregorios, Mixon, R.B., McCartan, Lucy, Nelson, A.E., Newell, W.L., Pavlides, Louis, Powars, D.S., Southworth, C.S., and Weems, R.E., 2017, Geologic map of the Washington West 30’ × 60’ quadrangle, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington D.C.: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017–1142, 1 sheet, scale 1:100,000, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171142.","productDescription":"Map: 55.30 x 60.78 inches; Database; Database Metadata; Spatial Data","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-052801","costCenters":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":350265,"rank":6,"type":{"id":9,"text":"Database"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/ofr20171142_washington-west-geologic-map-database.zip","text":"Database","size":"102 MB","linkFileType":{"id":6,"text":"zip"},"linkHelpText":"- Washington West Geologic Map Database"},{"id":350266,"rank":7,"type":{"id":23,"text":"Spatial Data"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/ofr20171142_washingtonwestVADCMD-ArcGIS-10.0.mxd","size":"438 KB mxd","linkHelpText":"- Washington West: Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. (ArcGIS 10.0)"},{"id":350263,"rank":4,"type":{"id":23,"text":"Spatial Data"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/ofr20171142_washington-west-base-map.zip","text":"Base Map","size":"50.4 MB","linkFileType":{"id":6,"text":"zip"},"linkHelpText":"- Washington West Base Map Files"},{"id":350262,"rank":3,"type":{"id":23,"text":"Spatial Data"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/ofr20171142_washington-west-geologic-shapefiles.zip","text":"Shapefiles","size":"9.08 MB","linkFileType":{"id":6,"text":"zip"},"linkHelpText":"- Washington West Geologic Shapefiles"},{"id":350260,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/coverthb.jpg"},{"id":350261,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/ofr20171142.pdf","text":"Report","size":"35.5 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"OFR 2017-1142"},{"id":350264,"rank":5,"type":{"id":16,"text":"Metadata"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2017/1142/ofr20171142_washington-west-geologic-database-metadata.zip","text":"Database Metadata","linkHelpText":"- Washington West Geologic Database Metadata"}],"country":"United States","state":"Maryland, Virginia","otherGeospatial":"Washington, D.C.","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -78,\n 38.5\n ],\n [\n -77,\n 38.5\n ],\n [\n -77,\n 39\n ],\n [\n -78,\n 39\n ],\n [\n -78,\n 38.5\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center
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12201 Sunrise Valley Drive
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The extent of damage in Washington, DC, from the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake was surprising for an epicenter 130 km away; U.S. Geological Survey “Did-You-Feel-It” reports suggest that Atlantic Coastal Plain and other unconsolidated sediments amplified ground motions in the city. We measure this amplification relative to bedrock sites using earthquake signals recorded on a temporary seismometer array. The spectral ratios show strong amplification in the 0.7 to 4 Hz frequency range for sites on sediments. This range overlaps with resonant frequencies of buildings in the city as inferred from their heights, suggesting amplification at frequencies to which many buildings are vulnerable to damage. Our results emphasize that local amplification can raise moderate ground motions to damaging levels in stable continental regions, where low attenuation extends shaking levels over wide areas and unconsolidated deposits on crystalline metamorphic or igneous bedrock can result in strong contrasts in near-surface material properties.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1002/2017GL075517","usgsCitation":"Pratt, T.L., Horton, J.W., Munoz, J., Hough, S.E., Chapman, M.C., and Olgun, C.G., 2017, Amplification of earthquake ground motions in Washington, DC, and implications for hazard assessments in central and eastern North America: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, no. 24, p. 12150-12160, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075517.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"12150","endPage":"12160","ipdsId":"IP-092357","costCenters":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":352058,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":352048,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075517/full"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Washington, DC","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -82,\n 36\n ],\n [\n -75,\n 36\n ],\n [\n -75,\n 40\n ],\n [\n -82,\n 40\n ],\n [\n -82,\n 36\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"44","issue":"24","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":2,"text":"Denver PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee788e4b0da30c1bfc2c8","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Pratt, Thomas L. 0000-0003-3131-3141 tpratt@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3131-3141","contributorId":3279,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pratt","given":"Thomas","email":"tpratt@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":729624,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Horton, J. Wright Jr. 0000-0001-6756-6365 whorton@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6756-6365","contributorId":173694,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Horton","given":"J.","suffix":"Jr.","email":"whorton@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"Wright","affiliations":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":729625,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Munoz, Jessica","contributorId":202790,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Munoz","given":"Jessica","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":729626,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Hough, Susan E. 0000-0002-5980-2986 hough@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5980-2986","contributorId":587,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hough","given":"Susan","email":"hough@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":729627,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Chapman, Martin C.","contributorId":139348,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Chapman","given":"Martin","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":12694,"text":"Virginia Tech","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":729628,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Olgun, C. Guney 0000-0001-9751-1103","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9751-1103","contributorId":202791,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Olgun","given":"C.","email":"","middleInitial":"Guney","affiliations":[{"id":12694,"text":"Virginia Tech","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":729629,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70193367,"text":"70193367 - 2017 - Investigation of input reduction techniques for morphodynamic modeling of complex inlets with baroclinic forcing","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-28T12:00:44","indexId":"70193367","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"Investigation of input reduction techniques for morphodynamic modeling of complex inlets with baroclinic forcing","docAbstract":"The Mouth of the Columbia River (MCR) is a complex estuary inlet system characterized by a buoyant plume created\nby high freshwater flows from the Columbia River into the Pacific Ocean. Data obtained during two major field\ncampaigns have resulted in a comprehensive dataset of hydrodynamics and sediment transport under high (2013) and\nlow (2005) river flow conditions. Through the analysis of this data and model simulations obtained with the Delft3D\n(MCR) model application we explored the importance and effect of stratification on sand-sized sediment for short- and\nlong-term sediment transport simulations. Stratification influences the sediment transport through much of the estuary,\nand significantly reduces sediment export at the MCR. A correlation analysis reveals that a similar representative tide\nthat best approximates the spring-neap averaged transport can be selected for both stratified and non-stratified flow.\nThis correspondence implies that standard morphodynamic tide schematizations (e.g. Lesser, 2009) may also be valid\nin the stratified conditions found at MCR and other highly stratified estuaries.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Coastal Dynamics 2017, Proceedings","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"conferenceTitle":"Coastal Dynamics 2017","conferenceDate":"June 12-16, 2017","conferenceLocation":"Helsingør, Denmark","language":"English","publisher":"Coastal Dynamics 2017","usgsCitation":"Gelfenbaum, G.R., Elias, E., and Stevens, A.W., 2017, Investigation of input reduction techniques for morphodynamic modeling of complex inlets with baroclinic forcing, in Coastal Dynamics 2017, Proceedings, Helsingør, Denmark, June 12-16, 2017, p. 1142-1154.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"1142","endPage":"1154","ipdsId":"IP-086608","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":352132,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":347951,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://coastaldynamics2017.dk/proceedings.html"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Columbia River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -124.09744262695312,\n 46.091329046507695\n ],\n [\n -123.01254272460938,\n 46.091329046507695\n ],\n [\n -123.01254272460938,\n 46.3507193554773\n ],\n [\n -124.09744262695312,\n 46.3507193554773\n ],\n [\n -124.09744262695312,\n 46.091329046507695\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee788e4b0da30c1bfc2ce","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Gelfenbaum, Guy R. 0000-0003-1291-6107 ggelfenbaum@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1291-6107","contributorId":742,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gelfenbaum","given":"Guy","email":"ggelfenbaum@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":186,"text":"Coastal and Marine Geology Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":718871,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Elias, Edwin","contributorId":199380,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Elias","given":"Edwin","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":718872,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Stevens, Andrew W. 0000-0003-2334-129X astevens@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2334-129X","contributorId":139313,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stevens","given":"Andrew","email":"astevens@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":186,"text":"Coastal and Marine Geology Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":718873,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70196241,"text":"70196241 - 2017 - Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-03-30T12:57:39","indexId":"70196241","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2508,"text":"Journal of Wildlife Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas","docAbstract":"Since the mid 1990s, the number of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) nests on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, the historically predominant breeding area of brant, has declined steadily. This has caused researchers and managers to question if arctic breeding populations can compensate for the reduction in brant nests on the YKD. An important component of the assessment of brant population dynamics is having current estimates of first‐year and adult survival. We banded brant at 4 locations in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, and at 1 location in the subarctic, the Tutakoke River (TR) colony on the YKD, 1990–2015. We used joint live and dead mark‐recapture models to estimate first‐year and adult (≥1 yr old) survival of brant. We also used band recovery rates from a Brownie model to assess temporal trends in band recovery rates of adult brant. First‐year survival of brant hatched at TR declined from approximately 0.60 to <0.20 and, although first‐year survival generally was higher for goslings marked in the Arctic, their survival declined from approximately 0.70 in the early 1990s to ≤0.45 in the 2010s. Annual survival of adult females decreased from an average of 0.881 (95% CI = 0.877–0.885) to 0.822 (95% CI = 0.815–0.829) at TR and from 0.851 (95% CI = 0.843–0.860) to 0.821 (95% CI = 0.805–0.836) in the Arctic, from 1990 to 2014. Band recovery rates of adults generally were <1.25% until the last several years of study, when they reached ≤3.5%. Although the current harvest rates may be partially additive to natural mortality, we do not believe that harvest is the main influence on the declines in survival. The general decline in survival rates of brant breeding across a large geographic area may be influenced by a reduction in the quality of migration and wintering ground habitats. We suggest an analysis of seasonal survival of brant to test the hypothesis that declining habitat quality on wintering or spring migration areas is reducing survival. Our results suggest that the number of breeding pairs at TR will continue to decline and also brings into question the ability of arctic breeding populations to grow at a rate necessary to offset the declines on the YKD. Researchers should continue to closely monitor survival and harvest rates of brant, and assess methods currently used to monitor their abundance.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.21284","usgsCitation":"Leach, A.G., Ward, D.H., Sedinger, J.S., Lindberg, M.S., Boyd, W.S., Hupp, J.W., and Ritchie, R.J., 2017, Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 81, no. 7, p. 1210-1218, https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21284.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"1210","endPage":"1218","ipdsId":"IP-080965","costCenters":[{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":438115,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F76971SZ","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Black Brant Banding and Recovery Encounter Histories, Alaska, 1990-2016"},{"id":353007,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"81","issue":"7","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-06-15","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee788e4b0da30c1bfc2c6","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Leach, Alan G.","contributorId":203591,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Leach","given":"Alan","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":36666,"text":"Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada-Reno","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":731833,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Ward, David H. 0000-0002-5242-2526 dward@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5242-2526","contributorId":3247,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ward","given":"David","email":"dward@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":731831,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Sedinger, James S.","contributorId":84861,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Sedinger","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":12742,"text":"University of Nevada Reno","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":731834,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Lindberg, Mark S.","contributorId":63292,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lindberg","given":"Mark","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":7211,"text":"University of Alaska, Fairbanks","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":731835,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Boyd, W. Sean","contributorId":199405,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Boyd","given":"W.","email":"","middleInitial":"Sean","affiliations":[{"id":35539,"text":"Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Delta, BC, Canada","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":731836,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Hupp, Jerry W. 0000-0002-6439-3910 jhupp@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6439-3910","contributorId":127803,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hupp","given":"Jerry","email":"jhupp@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":731832,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Ritchie, Robert J.","contributorId":203595,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ritchie","given":"Robert","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":36669,"text":"ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":731837,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70194838,"text":"70194838 - 2017 - Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-01-16T15:50:40","indexId":"70194838","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1475,"text":"Ecosphere","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota","docAbstract":"Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.
","language":"English","publisher":"Ecological Society of America","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.2020","usgsCitation":"Miller, B., Symstad, A.J., Frid, L., Fisichelli, N.A., and Schuurman, G.W., 2017, Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota: Ecosphere, v. 8, no. 12, e02020; 24 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2020.","productDescription":"e02020; 24 p.","ipdsId":"IP-086834","costCenters":[{"id":477,"text":"North Central Climate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469222,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2020","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":350458,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"South Dakota","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -103.25,\n 43\n ],\n [\n -101.5,\n 43\n ],\n [\n -101.5,\n 44\n ],\n [\n -103.25,\n 44\n ],\n [\n -103.25,\n 43\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"8","issue":"12","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-15","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a60e453e4b06e28e9c1406f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Miller, Brian W. 0000-0003-1716-1161 bwmiller@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1716-1161","contributorId":195418,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Miller","given":"Brian W.","email":"bwmiller@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":411,"text":"National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":477,"text":"North Central Climate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":725512,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Symstad, Amy J. 0000-0003-4231-2873 asymstad@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4231-2873","contributorId":147543,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Symstad","given":"Amy","email":"asymstad@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":480,"text":"Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":725513,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Frid, Leonardo","contributorId":56553,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Frid","given":"Leonardo","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":725514,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Fisichelli, Nicholas A.","contributorId":174508,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Fisichelli","given":"Nicholas","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":27461,"text":"NPS, Fort Collins, CO","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":725515,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Schuurman, Gregor W. 0000-0002-9304-7742","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9304-7742","contributorId":147698,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Schuurman","given":"Gregor","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":16909,"text":"U.S. National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science, Fort Collins, CO, 80525, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":725516,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70195388,"text":"70195388 - 2017 - Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-13T10:58:56","indexId":"70195388","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2982,"text":"PNAS","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States","docAbstract":"Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result in overly broad or inappropriate management and policy decisions that neglect to account for regionally specific or other important factors driving fire activity. We developed statistical models relating seasonal temperature and precipitation variables to historical annual fire activity for 37 different regions across the continental United States and asked whether and how fire-climate relationships vary geographically, and why climate is more important in some regions than in others. Climatic variation played a significant role in explaining annual fire activity in some regions, but the relative importance of seasonal temperature or precipitation, in addition to the overall importance of climate, varied substantially depending on geographical context. Human presence was the primary reason that climate explained less fire activity in some regions than in others. That is, where human presence was more prominent, climate was less important. This means that humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effect of climate. Thus, geographical context as well as human influence should be considered alongside climate in national wildfire policy and management.
","language":"English","publisher":"PNAS","doi":"10.1073/pnas.1713885114","usgsCitation":"Syphard, A.D., Keeley, J.E., Pfaff, A., and Ferschweiler, K., 2017, Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States: PNAS, v. 114, no. 52, p. 13750-13755, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713885114.","productDescription":"6 p.","startPage":"13750","endPage":"13755","ipdsId":"IP-089931","costCenters":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469225,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713885114","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":351517,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","volume":"114","issue":"52","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":1,"text":"Sacramento PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-11","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5afee788e4b0da30c1bfc2cc","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Syphard, Alexandra D.","contributorId":8977,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Syphard","given":"Alexandra","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":728343,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Keeley, Jon E. 0000-0002-4564-6521 jon_keeley@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4564-6521","contributorId":1268,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Keeley","given":"Jon","email":"jon_keeley@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728342,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Pfaff, Anne Hopkins","contributorId":202411,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pfaff","given":"Anne Hopkins","affiliations":[{"id":651,"text":"Western Ecological Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":728344,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Ferschweiler, Ken","contributorId":127604,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ferschweiler","given":"Ken","affiliations":[{"id":7074,"text":"Conservation Biology Institute, Covallis OR","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":728345,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70195134,"text":"70195134 - 2017 - Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T09:32:07","indexId":"70195134","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1807,"text":"Geophysical Research Letters","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting","docAbstract":"Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.
","language":"English","publisher":"AGU","doi":"10.1002/2017GL075272","usgsCitation":"Hegermiller, C., Rueda, A.C., Erikson, L., Barnard, P., Antolinez, J., and Mendez, F.J., 2017, Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, no. 24, p. 12315-12323, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075272.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"12315","endPage":"12323","ipdsId":"IP-091771","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":469224,"rank":1,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075272","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":438116,"rank":0,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/F7N29V2V","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Nearshore waves in southern California: hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series"},{"id":351304,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -122,\n 31\n ],\n [\n -117,\n 31\n ],\n [\n -117,\n 35.5\n ],\n [\n -122,\n 35.5\n ],\n [\n -122,\n 31\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"44","issue":"24","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5a7c1e76e4b00f54eb229300","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hegermiller, Christie 0000-0002-6383-7508 chegermiller@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6383-7508","contributorId":149010,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hegermiller","given":"Christie","email":"chegermiller@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":678,"text":"Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":727098,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Rueda, Ana C.","contributorId":177511,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Rueda","given":"Ana","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727099,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Erikson, Li H. 0000-0002-8607-7695 lerikson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8607-7695","contributorId":3170,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Erikson","given":"Li H.","email":"lerikson@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":727100,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Barnard, Patrick L. 0000-0003-1414-6476 pbarnard@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-6476","contributorId":138921,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barnard","given":"Patrick L.","email":"pbarnard@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":727101,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Antolinez, J.A.A.","contributorId":201853,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Antolinez","given":"J.A.A.","affiliations":[{"id":36274,"text":"University of Cantabria, Spain","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":727102,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Mendez, Fernando J.","contributorId":177514,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mendez","given":"Fernando","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":727103,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70197620,"text":"70197620 - 2017 - A simulation method for combining hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag tracks to predict the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass under future engineering scenarios","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-06-14T10:27:56","indexId":"70197620","displayToPublicDate":"2018-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":9,"text":"Other Report"},"title":"A simulation method for combining hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag tracks to predict the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass under future engineering scenarios","docAbstract":"During water year 2016 the U.S. Geological Survey California Water Science Center (USGS) collaborated with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to conduct a joint hydrodynamic and fisheries study to acquire data that could be used to evaluate the effects of proposed modifications to the Fremont Weir on outmigrating juvenile Chinook salmon. During this study the USGS surgically implanted acoustic tags in juvenile late fall run Chinook salmon from the Coleman National Fish Hatchery, released the acoustically tagged juvenile salmon into the Sacramento River upstream of the Fremont Weir, and tracked their movements as they emigrated past the western end of the Fremont Weir.
The USGS analyzed tracking data from the acoustically tagged juvenile salmon along with detailed hydrodynamic data collected in the Sacramento River during the winter/spring of water year 2016 in the vicinity of the western end of the Fremont Weir to assess the potential for enhancing the entrainment of Sacramento River Chinook salmon onto the Yolo Bypass under six different Fremont Weir modification scenarios. Each modification scenario consists of a notch or multiple notches in the Fremont Weir which are designed to divert a portion of the Sacramento River onto the Yolo Bypass when the Sacramento River is below the crest of the Fremont Weir. The primary goal of this entrainment analysis was to investigate how the location of the notch or notches in each scenario affected the entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon onto the Yolo Bypass, and to predict the notch location or locations that would result in maximum entrainment under each modification scenario.
Stumpner et al.’s (in review) analysis of hydraulic data collected during the 2016 study period showed that backwater effects in the Sacramento River created significant variability in the relationship between Sacramento River stage and the proportion of the Sacramento River flow that we expect to be diverted onto the Yolo Bypass under the modification scenarios. Because of this variability, accurately evaluating the entrainment potential of possible notch locations for each scenario required combining historic abundance data for juvenile Sacramento River Chinook salmon with historic hydraulic data for the Sacramento River in the vicinity of the Fremont Weir, so that the entrainment estimates would reflect the covariance between Sacramento River stage, Sacramento River discharge, and juvenile salmon abundance within the historic record.
We used a Monte Carlo simulation framework to combine the high resolution hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag track data collected in 2016 with historic juvenile salmon abundance, Sacramento River stage, and Sacramento River discharge data from a period spanning water years 1996-2010 to assess the entrainment potential of different weir modification scenarios under historic conditions. The scenarios we simulated consisted of four single notch configurations, and two multiple notch configurations in the vicinity of the western end of the Fremont Weir. For each notch configuration the 15-water-year entrainment simulation was repeated for 63 possible notch locations in the vicinity of the western end of the Fremont Weir. This approach allowed us to assess the effect of notch location on the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass for each of the six notch configurations that we evaluated.
The entrainment simulations showed that the location of each notch configuration had a major impact on the entrainment for each scenario; the predicted entrainment of some scenarios varied by as much as 400% based on where the notch (or notches) was (were) located in the study area. All of the single notch scenarios performed best when they were located within a 330 ft (100 meter) long section of the Sacramento River bank adjacent to the western terminus of the Fremont Weir (Table 1). Both of the multiple notch scenarios performed best when their upstream notches were located about 660 ft (200 meters) upstream of the western terminus of the Fremont Weir (Table 1). The results of the entrainment simulations indicated that for each notch configuration the same notch location produced near-maximum entrainment regardless of run abundance timing; this result suggests that there are areas within the study are where a notch (or notches) can be sited to achieve maximum entrainment for all runs (barring significant behavioral or physiological differences between runs). In addition, the simulation results indicate that for each notch configuration the same location is expected to produce nearmaximum entrainment for both wet water years and dry water years.
Based on the results of the entrainment simulation we make three general recommendations for strategies to improve the entrainment potential of a notch in the Fremont Weir:
1) Comparisons between the maximum entrainment potential for each scenario suggested that total entrainment of winter run, spring run, and fall run salmon onto the Yolo Bypass can be increased by increasing the amount of water entering a notch when the Sacramento River stage is between 19 ft and 22 ft NAVD88; this could be accomplished by lowering notch invert elevations or by adding a control section to the Sacramento River to raise stage for a given discharge.
2) The relationship between Sacramento River stage and entrainment for each scenario indicated that entrainment efficiency for each scenario declined significantly once Sacramento River stage exceeded bankfull (approximately 28.5 ft NAVD88). This effect was likely due to inundation of the floodplain between the Sacramento River and the Fremont Weir; Stumpner et. al (In Review) have documented a reduction in the strength of the secondary circulation and centralization of the downwelling zone in the Sacramento River when this floodplain is inundated. Therefore, increasing the height of the river right bank of the Sacramento River to coincide with the height of the Fremont Weir is recommended to increase entrainment at higher stages.
3) Bathymetric features upstream of notch openings appeared to have a major impact on the entrainment potential of the simulated notches. For this reason we recommend taking care to avoid siting notches immediately downstream of bank features that alter the sidewall boundary layer, and we expect that smoothing the bank bathymetry upstream of a notch will enhance entrainment.
Finally, we caution that the entrainment simulation was based on the behavior of large hatchery smolts, so it is likely that our results will be sensitive to any differences in behavior and physiology between these hatchery surrogates and naturally migrating juvenile salmon.
","language":"English","publisher":"Delta Stewardship Council","usgsCitation":"Blake, A.R., Stumpner, P., and Burau, J.R., 2017, A simulation method for combining hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag tracks to predict the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass under future engineering scenarios, 108 p.","productDescription":"108 p.","ipdsId":"IP-089808","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":355046,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":355027,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://deltacouncil.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2018/04/Entrainment%20Analysis_FinalVersion_Released.pdf"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"Yolo Bypass","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":1,"text":"Sacramento PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5b46e607e4b060350a15d246","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Blake, Aaron R. 0000-0001-7348-2336 ablake@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7348-2336","contributorId":5059,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blake","given":"Aaron","email":"ablake@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":737949,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Stumpner, Paul 0000-0002-0933-7895 pstump@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0933-7895","contributorId":5667,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stumpner","given":"Paul","email":"pstump@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":737950,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Burau, Jon R. 0000-0002-5196-5035 jrburau@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5196-5035","contributorId":1500,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Burau","given":"Jon","email":"jrburau@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":737951,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70211525,"text":"70211525 - 2017 - The Southern Appalachian Brook Trout management conundrum: What should restoration look like in the 21st Century?","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2020-08-04T22:42:32.799735","indexId":"70211525","displayToPublicDate":"2017-12-31T17:32:27","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"The Southern Appalachian Brook Trout management conundrum: What should restoration look like in the 21st Century?","docAbstract":"Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the southern Appalachian portion of their range have been isolated in remote headwater systems for millennia. Recent genetic investigations indicate extremely low allelic diversity, heterozygosity and effective population sizes in many streams. In populations restored using multiple source stocks, limited introgression has been observed despite source stocks being collected from streams within the same subwatershed. It remains unclear if pre- and/or post-reproductive isolating mechanisms are restricting effective gene flow among source stocks in restored streams. Objectives of this study were to: 1) identify environmental variables contributing to assortative mating, and 2) use common garden crossings to determine if wild type brood stock crossings resulted in physiologically viable offspring. We observed markedly different fertilization success rates within-population (66.7%) and betweenpopulation (91.7%) from the 42 crosses (N=18 control, N=24 treatment). Moreover, we observed significant (P < 0.05) differences between within-population and between-population groups in each of our linear mixed effects global models for each trial stage of development (i.e., fertilization rate, eyed egg rate, and hatch rates). Tukey’s HSD comparisons revealed only one significantly (P < 0.003) different fertilization rate among the forty five pairwise comparisons in each of our three stages of trails. In addition, we observed differential peaks of gamete production within and among source stream brood stock, despite common garden conditions, that appeared to have limited fertilization success rates between interstream and control groups. Despite differential peak gamete timing, intrastream crosses performed equally, and, in some instances, better than those between control groups. Our results suggest differential responses to shared environmental conditions (i.e., temperature and/or photoperiod) may contribute to mismatched spawning phenology (i.e., gamete production timing) among restoration founder stocks leading to introgression (i.e., genetic admixture). The application of contemporary genetic techniques could help determine if these possible local adaptations are genetically fixed or may break down over time in restored populations with mixed source stocks. These findings demonstrate the need to apply contemporary conservation genetics tools to future wild trout restoration projects using translocated source stock towards the goal of “genetically-robust”, naturally reproducing populations with the ability to cope with current and future perturbations.
","largerWorkTitle":"Proceedings of the wild trout XII symposium","conferenceTitle":"Wild Trout XII Symposium","conferenceDate":"Sep 26-29, 2017","conferenceLocation":"West Yellowstone, MT","language":"English","publisher":"Wild Trout Symposium","usgsCitation":"Kulp, M.A., Mitchell, S., Kazyak, D., Kuhajda, B.R., Henegar, J., Weathers, T.C., George, A., Ennen, J., and King, T., 2017, The Southern Appalachian Brook Trout management conundrum: What should restoration look like in the 21st Century?, in Proceedings of the wild trout XII symposium, West Yellowstone, MT, Sep 26-29, 2017, p. 65-75.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"65","endPage":"75","ipdsId":"IP-090917","costCenters":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":377028,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"North Carolina, Tennessee","otherGeospatial":"Cosby Creek, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Greenbrier Creek, Indian Camp Creek, Leconte Creek","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -83.15414428710938,\n 35.806676609227054\n ],\n [\n -83.1719970703125,\n 35.808904044068626\n ],\n [\n -83.62518310546875,\n 35.713067954913896\n ],\n [\n -83.57986450195312,\n 35.641673184600585\n ],\n [\n -83.38623046875,\n 35.65952786487723\n ],\n [\n -83.14178466796875,\n 35.725332497303015\n ],\n [\n -83.15414428710938,\n 35.806676609227054\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Kulp, Matt A.","contributorId":196801,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kulp","given":"Matt","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":35484,"text":"National Park Service, Great Smoky Mountains National Park","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":794506,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Mitchell, Shawna","contributorId":236864,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mitchell","given":"Shawna","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":13216,"text":"Tennessee Aquarium Conservation Institute","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":794507,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Kazyak, David C. 0000-0001-9860-4045","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9860-4045","contributorId":202481,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kazyak","given":"David C.","affiliations":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":794508,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Kuhajda, Bernard R.","contributorId":152490,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Kuhajda","given":"Bernard","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":794509,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Henegar, Jason","contributorId":236865,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Henegar","given":"Jason","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":13408,"text":"Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":794510,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Weathers, T. Casey","contributorId":218129,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Weathers","given":"T.","email":"","middleInitial":"Casey","affiliations":[{"id":7260,"text":"Pennsylvania State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":794511,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"George, Anna","contributorId":236866,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"George","given":"Anna","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":13216,"text":"Tennessee Aquarium Conservation Institute","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":794512,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Ennen, Joshua R.","contributorId":60368,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Ennen","given":"Joshua R.","affiliations":[{"id":13216,"text":"Tennessee Aquarium Conservation Institute","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":794513,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"King, Tim","contributorId":83179,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"King","given":"Tim","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":794514,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9}]}} ,{"id":70208674,"text":"70208674 - 2017 - Are nest boxes ecological traps for red-footed falcons Falco vespertinius at Naurzum","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2020-06-02T22:12:40.68054","indexId":"70208674","displayToPublicDate":"2017-12-31T16:58:06","publicationYear":"2017","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"displayTitle":"Are nest boxes ecological traps for red-footed falcons Falco vespertinius at Naurzum","title":"Are nest boxes ecological traps for red-footed falcons Falco vespertinius at Naurzum","docAbstract":"Nest box programs are frequently implemented for conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-Footed Falcon (Falco vespertinus) populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset developed from monitoring 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons at the Naurzum Zapovednick to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Redfooted Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. Variations in lay date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models with terms for nest type, land cover type and degree of coloniality. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, land cover type, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively). Because, for other species, early lay dates are associated with individual fitness, this interaction highlighted a potential ecological trap where falcons using nest boxes on forest edges at Naurzum lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings.
","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"Biological diversity of Asian Steppe: Proceedings of the III international scientific conference","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"conferenceTitle":"III International Scientific Conference: Biological Diversity of Asian Steppe","conferenceDate":"Apr 24-27, 2017","conferenceLocation":"Kostanay, Kazakhstan","language":"English","publisher":"Kostanay State Pedagogical Institute","usgsCitation":"Katzner, T., Bragin, A.E., and Bragin, E.A., 2017, Are nest boxes ecological traps for red-footed falcons Falco vespertinius at Naurzum, in Biological diversity of Asian Steppe: Proceedings of the III international scientific conference, Kostanay, Kazakhstan, Apr 24-27, 2017, p. 240-244.","productDescription":"5 p.","startPage":"240","endPage":"244","ipdsId":"IP-084190","costCenters":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":375273,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Kazahkstan","state":"Kostanay Oblast","otherGeospatial":"Naurzum State Nature Reserve","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n 63.66165161132813,\n 51.24042602354956\n ],\n [\n 64.91683959960938,\n 51.24042602354956\n ],\n [\n 64.91683959960938,\n 51.931565061629236\n ],\n [\n 63.66165161132813,\n 51.931565061629236\n ],\n [\n 63.66165161132813,\n 51.24042602354956\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":12,"text":"Tacoma PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Katzner, Todd E. 0000-0003-4503-8435 tkatzner@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4503-8435","contributorId":191353,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Katzner","given":"Todd E.","email":"tkatzner@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":782958,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Bragin, Alexander E.","contributorId":193027,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bragin","given":"Alexander","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":782959,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Bragin, Evgeny A.","contributorId":194894,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bragin","given":"Evgeny","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":35656,"text":"Science Department, Naurzum National Nature Reserve, Kostanay Oblast, Naurzumski Raijon, Karamendy, Kazakhstan","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":782960,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}