The nesting range of Forster's terns hosts three allopatric breeding populations. The first and most important breeding area, in terms of the number of nes t i ng pairs, includes the western guIf coas t from the Louisiana-Mississippi border to northern Tamaulipas, Mexico (American Ornithologists' Union [AOUJ 1983). In addition, small numbers of Forster's terns have nested in Mobile County, Alabama (Imhof 1976). Although this species has not been recorded nesting in Mississippi (J. Jackson, Mississippi State University, Starkville; pers. comm.), it is observed in the coastal regions of that State every summer, and several thousand nest in adjacent Louisiana (Portnoy 1977; Clapp et ale 1983). The two largest colonies of Forster's terns documented in the literature were both in Louisiana: one of 2,750 pairs in Lake Borgne on the Louisiana-Mississippi border and one of 2,263 pairs in Calcasieu Lake (Portnoy 1977).
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service","usgsCitation":"Martin, R.P., and Zwank, P.J., 1987, Habitat Suitability Index Models: Forster's tern (breeding) - Gulf and Atlantic coasts: FWS/OBS 82/10.131, vi, 21 p.","productDescription":"vi, 21 p.","costCenters":[{"id":595,"text":"U.S. Geological Survey","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":192092,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"4f4e4a80e4b07f02db64988e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Martin, Richard P.","contributorId":7372,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Martin","given":"Richard","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":292235,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Zwank, Phillip J.","contributorId":11287,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Zwank","given":"Phillip","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":292236,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70015249,"text":"70015249 - 1987 - The phytoplankton component of seston in San Francisco Bay","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-05-21T16:11:32.512977","indexId":"70015249","displayToPublicDate":"2003-05-14T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2853,"text":"Netherlands Journal of Sea Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"The phytoplankton component of seston in San Francisco Bay","docAbstract":"Phytoplankton biomass (as carbon) was estimated from chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) and a mean value for the ratio of phytoplankton carbon to chlorophyll a in San Francisco Bay. The ratio was determined as the slope of a Model II regression of POC' against (Chla), where POC' is total particulate organic carbon minus sediment-associated non-phytoplankton carbon. Samples from 30 fixed sites in the channel and lateral shoals of San Francisco Bay were collected once or twice a month from April to November 1980, and at irregular intervals in South Bay during 1984 and 1985. For all data the calculated mean value of phytoplankton C:Chla was 51 (95% confidence interval = 47–54). No significant differences were found in the C:Chla ratio between shallow and deep sites (where light availability differs) or between northern and southern San Francisco Bay (where phytoplankton community composition differs). Using the mean C:Chla ratio of 51, we calculated that phytoplankton biomass constitutes about one third of seston carbon under most circumstances, but this fraction ranges from about 95% during phytoplankton blooms to less than 20% during spring periods of low phytoplankton biomass and high suspended sediment concentration.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0077-7579(87)90020-2","issn":"00777579","usgsCitation":"Wienke, S., and Cloern, J., 1987, The phytoplankton component of seston in San Francisco Bay: Netherlands Journal of Sea Research, v. 21, no. 1, p. 25-33, https://doi.org/10.1016/0077-7579(87)90020-2.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"25","endPage":"33","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":552,"text":"San Francisco Bay-Delta","active":false,"usgs":true},{"id":5079,"text":"Pacific Regional Director's Office","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":223591,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"San Francisco Bay","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -122.75688629121268,\n 38.13697712688091\n ],\n [\n -122.75688629121268,\n 37.41058731586716\n ],\n [\n -121.70443147007661,\n 37.41058731586716\n ],\n [\n -121.70443147007661,\n 38.13697712688091\n ],\n [\n -122.75688629121268,\n 38.13697712688091\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"21","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505bae99e4b08c986b3241e2","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wienke, S.M.","contributorId":89902,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wienke","given":"S.M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":370466,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Cloern, J. E.","contributorId":59453,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cloern","given":"J. E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":370465,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70014794,"text":"70014794 - 1987 - North American nonmarine climates and vegetation during the Late Cretaceous","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-06-12T15:47:34.921436","indexId":"70014794","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-22T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2996,"text":"Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology","printIssn":"0031-0182","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"North American nonmarine climates and vegetation during the Late Cretaceous","docAbstract":"Analyses of physiognomy of Late Cretaceous leaf assemblages and of structural adaptations of Late Cretaceous dicotyledonous woods indicate that megathermal vegetation was an open-canopy, broad-leaved evergreen woodland that existed under low to moderate amounts of rainfall evenly distributed through the year, with a moderate increase at about 40–45°N. Many dicotyledons were probably large, massive trees, but the tallest trees were evergreen conifers. Megathermal climate extended up to paleolatitude 45–50°N. Mesothermal vegetation was at least partially an open, broad-leaved evergreen woodland (perhaps a mosaic of woodland and forest), but the evapotranspirational stress was less than in megathermal climate. Some dicotyledons were large trees, but most were shrubs or small trees; evergreen conifers were the major tree element. Some mild seasonality is evidenced in mesothermal woods; precipitational levels probably varied markedly from year to year. Northward of approximately paleolatitude 65°N, evergreen vegetation was replaced by predominantly deciduous vegetation. This replacement is presumably related primarily to seasonality of light. The southern part of the deciduous vegetation probably existed under mesothermal climate. Comparisons to leaf and wood assemblages from other continents are generally consistent with the vegetational-climatic patterns suggested from North American data. Limited data from equatorial regions suggest low rainfall.
Late Cretaceous climates, except probably those of the Cenomanian, had only moderate change through time. Temperatures generally appear to have warmed into the Santonian, cooled slightly into the Campanian and more markedly into the Maastrichtian, and then returned to Santonian values by the late Maastrichtian. The early Eocene was probably warmer than any period of the Late Cretaceous. Latitudinal temperature gradients were lower than at present. For the Campanian and Maastrichtian, a gradient of about 0.3°C/1° latitude is inferred. Equability was high: a mean annual range of temperature of about 8°C is inferred for paleolatitude 51–56°N during the Campanian.
Most Late Cretaceous plants evolved in a climate characterized by absence of freezing and low to moderate amounts of precipitation. A brief, low-temperature excursion and a major, long-lasting increase in precipitation occurred at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. In megathermal climates, these events selected for plants that could exist in rainforest environments. In mesothermal climates, deciduousness and contamitant structural adaptations were selected. The events at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary had a major and long-lasting impact on the evolution of land plants and their ecosystems.
Low precipitation at low to middle Late Cretaceous latitudes is suggested to be the result of high levels of atmospheric CO2, which, in turn, are probably related to inability of warm, saline oceans to store large amounts of carbon. Conditions appear to have rapidly changed at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, when oceanic circulation and stratification may have been fundamentally altered. After the boundary, the oceans were apparently able to store much greater amounts of carbon, and the oceans withdrew large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. In turn, more precipitation fell at low to middle latitudes; the resulting high-biomass vegetation formed a second major carbon reservoir to keep atmospheric CO2 low relative to the Late Cretaceous. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation probably resulted from some factor external to the ocean-atmosphere system.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0031-0182(87)90040-X","issn":"00310182","usgsCitation":"Wolfe, J.A., and Upchurch, G., 1987, North American nonmarine climates and vegetation during the Late Cretaceous: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 61, p. 33-77, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(87)90040-X.","productDescription":"45 p.","startPage":"33","endPage":"77","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225852,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"61","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a67e8e4b0c8380cd73517","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wolfe, J. A.","contributorId":14026,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wolfe","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369309,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Upchurch, G.R. Jr.","contributorId":70546,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Upchurch","given":"G.R.","suffix":"Jr.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369310,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70015214,"text":"70015214 - 1987 - Accretion of southern Alaska","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-08-25T15:47:02.944382","indexId":"70015214","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-11T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3525,"text":"Tectonophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Accretion of southern Alaska","docAbstract":"Paleomagnetic data from southern Alaska indicate that the Wrangellia and Peninsular terranes collided with central Alaska probably by 65 Ma ago and certainly no later than 55 Ma ago. The accretion of these terranes to the mainland was followed by the arrival of the Ghost Rocks volcanic assemblage at the southern margin of Kodiak Island. Poleward movement of these terranes can be explained by rapid motion of the Kula oceanic plate, mainly from 85 to 43 Ma ago, according to recent reconstructions derived from the hot-spot reference frame. After accretion, much of southwestern Alaska underwent a counterclockwise rotation of about 50 ?? as indicated by paleomagnetic poles from volcanic rocks of Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary age. Compression between North America and Asia during opening of the North Atlantic (68-44 Ma ago) may account for the rotation.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0040-1951(87)90200-9","issn":"00401951","usgsCitation":"Hillhouse, J.W., 1987, Accretion of southern Alaska: Tectonophysics, v. 139, no. 1-2, p. 107-122, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90200-9.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"107","endPage":"122","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":223809,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"southern Alaska","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -167.10745751795517,\n 53.86799214250502\n ],\n [\n -142.93336423559725,\n 56.90732132013909\n ],\n [\n -130.83073179398113,\n 55.460564983357955\n ],\n [\n -137.9539010549463,\n 60.75546242164623\n ],\n [\n -150.0160604558166,\n 61.68062664787814\n ],\n [\n -167.10745751795517,\n 53.86799214250502\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"139","issue":"1-2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5059e670e4b0c8380cd47421","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hillhouse, John W.","contributorId":29475,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hillhouse","given":"John","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":370340,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014153,"text":"70014153 - 1987 - Tectonic rotations south of the Bohemian Massif from palaeomagnetic directions of Permian red beds in Hungary","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-08-25T16:34:48.943519","indexId":"70014153","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-11T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3525,"text":"Tectonophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Tectonic rotations south of the Bohemian Massif from palaeomagnetic directions of Permian red beds in Hungary","docAbstract":"Palaeomagnetic studies were carried out in Permian red beds of the Balaton Highlands, the Mecsek Mountains and the Bükk Mountains of Hungary. Statistically well defined directions were obtained from six localities in the Balaton Highlands and two localities in the Mecsek Mountains. No meaningful results were obtained from the Bükk Mountains.
Three magnetic components were identified from red beds of the Balaton Highlands: (1) in haematite with a very high unblocking temperature (700°C), interpreted as a Permian magnetization (Dc = 79°, Ic = -11°, k = 24, α95 = 13.6°), in six samples from three beds in a single locality (2) a secondary but ancient component residing mainly inmaghemite (D = 314°, I = 49°, k = 48, α95 = 10.0°), in 84 samples from six localities with a within-locality scatter increasing on unfolding; and (3) a direction parallel to the present field (D = 7°, I = 62°, k = 46, α95 =7.7°), in nine samples from a single locality. For the Balaton Highlands, the component 1 direction agrees with directions obtained from Permian red beds and volcanics in the eastern part of the Southern and Eastern Alps and the Inner West Carpathians. All show large, apparent rotations relative to stable Europe since the Permian. Component 2 is of post-folding (post-Aptian) age. Its direction agrees with known Late Cretaceous directions from the Transdanubian Central Mountains, which also show significant counterclockwise rotation relative to stable Europe.
The characteristic magnetization for the Mecsek Mountains resides in haematite and may be primary. The directions indicate only a slight net counterclockwise rotation of the Mecsek Mountains with respect to stable Europe since the Permian.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0040-1951(87)90196-X","issn":"00401951","usgsCitation":"Marton, E., and Elston, D., 1987, Tectonic rotations south of the Bohemian Massif from palaeomagnetic directions of Permian red beds in Hungary: Tectonophysics, v. 139, no. 1-2, p. 43-51, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90196-X.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"43","endPage":"51","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":226005,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Hungary","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n 15.989538486580074,\n 48.49290302020893\n ],\n [\n 15.989538486580074,\n 45.42704922831521\n ],\n [\n 22.778953934985253,\n 45.42704922831521\n ],\n [\n 22.778953934985253,\n 48.49290302020893\n ],\n [\n 15.989538486580074,\n 48.49290302020893\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"139","issue":"1-2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505ba478e4b08c986b320366","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Marton, E.","contributorId":16992,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Marton","given":"E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":367727,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Elston, Donald P.","contributorId":71634,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Elston","given":"Donald P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":367728,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70014157,"text":"70014157 - 1987 - Development of the Archean crust in the medina mountain area, Wind River Range, Wyoming (U.S.A.)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-06-26T14:59:22.261903","indexId":"70014157","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-10T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3112,"text":"Precambrian Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Development of the Archean crust in the medina mountain area, Wind River Range, Wyoming (U.S.A.)","docAbstract":"Evidence for an extensive Archean crustal history in the Wind River Range is preserved in the Medina Mountain area in the west-central part of the range. The oldest rocks in the area are metasedimentary, mafic, and ultramafic blocks in a migmatite host. The supracrustal rocks of the Medina Mountain area (MMS) are folded into the migmatites, and include semi-pelitic and pelitic gneisses, and mafic rocks of probable volcanic origin. Mafic dikes intrude the older migmatites but not the MMS, suggesting that the MMS are distinctly younger than the supracrustal rocks in the migmatites. The migmatites and the MMS were engulfed by the late Archean granite of the Bridger, Louis Lake, and Bears Ears batholiths, which constitutes the dominant rock of the Wind River Range.
Isotopic data available for the area include Nd crustal residence ages from the MMS which indicate that continental crust existed in the area at or before 3.4 Ga, but the age of the older supracrustal sequence is not yet known. The upper age of the MMS is limited by a 2.7 Ga Rb-Sr age of the Bridger batholith, which was emplaced during the waning stages of the last regional metamorphism. The post-tectonic Louis Lake and Bears Ears batholiths have ages of 2.6 and 2.5 Ga, respectively (Stuckless et al., 1985).
At least three metamorphic events are recorded in the area: (1) an early regional granulite event (M1) that affected only the older inclusions within the migmatites, (2) a second regional amphibolite event (M2) that locally reached granulite facies conditions, and (3) a restricted, contact granulite facies event (M3) caused by the intrusion of charnockitic melts associated with the late Archean plutons. Results from cation exchange geobarometers and geothermometers yield unreasonably low pressures and temperatures, suggesting resetting during the long late Archean thermal event.
A two-dimensional spectral analysis has been carried out for the topography and the Bouguer gravity anomaly of the Basin and Range Province in western North America. The aim was to investigate the possible presence of dominant wavelengths in the deformation pattern at the surface and at the depth of compensation. The results suggest that a 200-km wavelength in the deep compensating mass distribution has been inherited from an early tectonic phase of extension at an azimuth N65??E. The corresponding surface topography exhibits prominent overtones at wavelength of 100, 75, and possibly 45 km. It is argued that these characterize the non-linear rheology of the upper crust. The short wavelengths in the topography reflect the present phase of deformation, mixed with the results of the older deformations. These results point to a need to extend the physical models of lithospheric stretching beyond the presently available one-phase scenario. However, they show that the boudinage instability concept is consistent with the data.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0040-1951(87)90262-9","issn":"00401951","usgsCitation":"Ricard, Y., Froidevaux, C., and Simpson, R., 1987, Spectral analysis of topography and gravity in the Basin and Range Province: Tectonophysics, v. 133, no. 3-4, p. 175-187, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90262-9.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"175","endPage":"187","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":223640,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Mexico, United States","state":"Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -120.03735943588883,\n 42.00862345299814\n ],\n [\n -120.39806789682876,\n 39.40064412979108\n ],\n [\n -115.38915301377308,\n 31.51632357488282\n ],\n [\n -109.63099281629341,\n 25.94233845042458\n ],\n [\n -108.15733396208881,\n 30.00462232811228\n ],\n [\n -104.29445090260016,\n 29.23368235277063\n ],\n [\n -112.90774565842592,\n 37.0909253903935\n ],\n [\n -110.9828809907067,\n 42.117270492737845\n ],\n [\n -120.03735943588883,\n 42.00862345299814\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"133","issue":"3-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505b9536e4b08c986b31add9","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Ricard, Y.","contributorId":62347,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ricard","given":"Y.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":370185,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Froidevaux, C.","contributorId":10933,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Froidevaux","given":"C.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":370183,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Simpson, R.","contributorId":49934,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Simpson","given":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":370184,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70014703,"text":"70014703 - 1987 - Fault failure with moderate earthquakes","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-08-25T16:14:20.941344","indexId":"70014703","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-09T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3525,"text":"Tectonophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Fault failure with moderate earthquakes","docAbstract":"High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake (ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake (ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake (ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake (ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10−8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10−10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10−9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0040-1951(87)90017-5","issn":"00401951","usgsCitation":"Johnston, M., Linde, A.T., Gladwin, M.T., and Borcherdt, R., 1987, Fault failure with moderate earthquakes: Tectonophysics, v. 144, no. 1-3, p. 189-206, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90017-5.","productDescription":"18 p.","startPage":"189","endPage":"206","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225526,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -121.02116382075675,\n 35.55400802086601\n ],\n [\n -121.02116382075675,\n 33.16372189729758\n ],\n [\n -118.23848206323959,\n 33.16372189729758\n ],\n [\n -118.23848206323959,\n 35.55400802086601\n ],\n [\n -121.02116382075675,\n 35.55400802086601\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"144","issue":"1-3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a0f18e4b0c8380cd5376f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Johnston, M.J.S. 0000-0003-4326-8368","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4326-8368","contributorId":104889,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnston","given":"M.J.S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369043,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Linde, A. T.","contributorId":21700,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Linde","given":"A.","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369040,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Gladwin, M. T.","contributorId":30373,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gladwin","given":"M.","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369041,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Borcherdt, R. D. 0000-0002-8668-0849","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8668-0849","contributorId":32165,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Borcherdt","given":"R. D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369042,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70014702,"text":"70014702 - 1987 - Nucleation and triggering of earthquake slip: Effect of periodic stresses","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-08-25T16:18:23.027267","indexId":"70014702","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-09T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3525,"text":"Tectonophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Nucleation and triggering of earthquake slip: Effect of periodic stresses","docAbstract":"Results of stability analyses for spring and slider systems, with state variable constitutive properties, are applied to slip on embedded fault patches. Unstable slip may nucleate only if the slipping patch exceeds some minimum size. Subsequent to the onset of instability the earthquake slip may propagate well beyond the patch. It is proposed that the seismicity of a volume of the earth's crust is determined by the distribution of initial conditions on the population of fault patches that nucleate earthquake slip, and the loading history acting upon the volume. Patches with constitutive properties inferred from laboratory experiments are characterized by an interval of self-driven accelerating slip prior to instability, if initial stress exceeds a minimum threshold. This delayed instability of the patches provides an explanation for the occurrence of aftershocks and foreshocks including decay of earthquake rates by time−1. A population of patches subjected to loading with a periodic component results in periodic variation of the rate of occurrence of instabilities. The change of the rate of seismicity for a sinusoidal load is proportional to the amplitude of the periodic stress component and inversely proportional to both the normal stress acting on the fault patches and the constitutive parameter, A1, that controls the direct velocity dependence of fault slip. Values of A1 representative of laboratory experiments indicate that in a homogeneous crust, correlation of earthquake rates with earth tides should not be detectable at normal stresses in excess of about 8 MPa. Correlation of earthquakes with tides at higher normal stresses can be explained if there exist inhomogeneities that locally amplify the magnitude of the tidal stresses. Such amplification might occur near magma chambers or other soft inclusions in the crust and possibly near the ends of creeping fault segments if the creep or afterslip rates vary in response to tides. Observations of seismicity rate variations associated with seasonal fluctuations of reservoir levels appear to be consistent with the model.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0040-1951(87)90012-6","issn":"00401951","usgsCitation":"Dieterich, J.H., 1987, Nucleation and triggering of earthquake slip: Effect of periodic stresses: Tectonophysics, v. 144, no. 1-3, p. 127-139, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90012-6.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"127","endPage":"139","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225463,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"144","issue":"1-3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a68d6e4b0c8380cd73a0f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dieterich, James H.","contributorId":81614,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dieterich","given":"James","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369039,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014783,"text":"70014783 - 1987 - Modelling aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, earthquake of October 3, 1972","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-08-25T16:07:51.750625","indexId":"70014783","displayToPublicDate":"2003-04-09T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3525,"text":"Tectonophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Modelling aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, earthquake of October 3, 1972","docAbstract":"The San Juan Bautista earthquake of October 3, 1972 (ML = 4.8), located along the San Andreas fault in central California, initiated an aftershock sequence characterized by a subtle, but perceptible, tendency for aftershocks to spread to the northwest and southeast along the fault zone. The apparent dimension of the aftershock zone along strike increased from about 7–10 km within a few days of the earthquake, to about 20 km eight months later. In addition, the mainshock initiated a period of accelerated fault creep, which was observed at 2 creep meters situated astride the trace of the San Andreas fault within about 15 km of the epicenter of the mainshock. The creep rate gradually returned to the preearthquake rate after about 3 yrs. Both the spreading of the aftershocks and the rapid surface creep are interpreted as reflecting a period of rapid creep in the fault zone representing the readjustment of stress and displacement following the failure of a “stuck” patch or asperity during the San Juan Bautista earthquake. Numerical calculations suggest that the behavior of the fault zone is consistent with that of a material characterized by a viscosity of about 3.6×1014 P, although the real rheology is likely to be more complicated. In this model, the mainshock represents the failure of an asperity that slips only during earthquakes. Aftershocks represent the failure of second-order asperities which are dragged along by the creeping fault zone.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0040-1951(87)90019-9","issn":"00401951","usgsCitation":"Wesson, R.L., 1987, Modelling aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, earthquake of October 3, 1972: Tectonophysics, v. 144, no. 1-3, p. 215-229, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90019-9.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"215","endPage":"229","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225660,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","city":"San Juan Bautista","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -121.69474215511903,\n 36.9015481210627\n ],\n [\n -121.69474215511903,\n 36.75214615258392\n ],\n [\n -121.46414306717881,\n 36.75214615258392\n ],\n [\n -121.46414306717881,\n 36.9015481210627\n ],\n [\n -121.69474215511903,\n 36.9015481210627\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"144","issue":"1-3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a5c5fe4b0c8380cd6fc3b","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wesson, R. L.","contributorId":51752,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wesson","given":"R.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369287,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014872,"text":"70014872 - 1987 - Regional regression of flood characteristics employing historical information","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-04-23T16:06:44.687118","indexId":"70014872","displayToPublicDate":"2003-03-27T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2342,"text":"Journal of Hydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Regional regression of flood characteristics employing historical information","docAbstract":"Streamflow gauging networks provide hydrologic information for use in estimating the parameters of regional regression models. The regional regression models can be used to estimate flood statistics, such as the 100 yr peak, at ungauged sites as functions of drainage basin characteristics. A recent innovation in regional regression is the use of a generalized least squares (GLS) estimator that accounts for unequal station record lengths and sample cross correlation among the flows. However, this technique does not account for historical flood information.
A method is proposed here to adjust this generalized least squares estimator to account for possible information about historical floods available at some stations in a region. The historical information is assumed to be in the form of observations of all peaks above a threshold during a long period outside the systematic record period. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was performed to compare the GLS estimator adjusted for historical floods with the unadjusted GLS estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator. Results indicate that using the GLS estimator adjusted for historical information significantly improves the regression model.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0022-1694(87)90157-0","issn":"00221694","usgsCitation":"Tasker, G.D., and Stedinger, J., 1987, Regional regression of flood characteristics employing historical information: Journal of Hydrology, v. 96, no. 1-4, p. 255-264, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90157-0.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"255","endPage":"264","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225919,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50e4a54fe4b0e8fec6cdbdea","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Tasker, Gary D.","contributorId":83097,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Tasker","given":"Gary","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369489,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Stedinger, J.R.","contributorId":90733,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stedinger","given":"J.R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369490,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70014871,"text":"70014871 - 1987 - A comparison of the largest rainfall-runoff floods in the United States with those of the People's Republic of China and the world","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-04-23T16:23:37.478165","indexId":"70014871","displayToPublicDate":"2003-03-27T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2342,"text":"Journal of Hydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A comparison of the largest rainfall-runoff floods in the United States with those of the People's Republic of China and the world","docAbstract":"The maximum historic rainfall-runoff floods measured in the United States, the People's Republic of China and the world all plot close to a smooth curve of drainage area versus discharge. In the United States, the possibility that flood peaks were overestimated and the closeness of these peaks to the probable maximum floods suggest that this limiting curve of maximum floods will not significantly change position with more data. Data for future floods that plot above this curve need to be examined carefully. The most likely interpretations for new data points above the curve would be the confusion of a mud or debris flow with a water-dominated flood, or the damming of channels by debris or a landslide and subsequent bursting. In the United States, excluding Hawaii, the largest measured historic floods in basins less than about 1000 km2, all occurred in arid and semi-arid areas. In China, the majority of the largest measured historic floods occurred in the east and southeast in basins on the windward side of mountainous areas, and in locations affected by typhoons. One extraordinary flood that exceeds any other recorded flood in the world for the size of the drainage basin in which it occurred is the New Caledonia flood of December 24, 1981 on the Ouaieme River. Worldwide, the largest measured historic floods occurred primarily between 40°N and 40°S latitude on streams and rivers near coastal areas.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0022-1694(87)90146-6","issn":"00221694","usgsCitation":"Costa, J.E., 1987, A comparison of the largest rainfall-runoff floods in the United States with those of the People's Republic of China and the world: Journal of Hydrology, v. 96, no. 1-4, p. 101-115, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90146-6.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"101","endPage":"115","costCenters":[{"id":615,"text":"Volcano Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":617,"text":"Volcano Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":225918,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5059e378e4b0c8380cd4604f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Costa, J. E.","contributorId":28977,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Costa","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369488,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014835,"text":"70014835 - 1987 - Quantifying peak discharges for historical floods","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-04-23T16:33:24.845441","indexId":"70014835","displayToPublicDate":"2003-03-27T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2342,"text":"Journal of Hydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Quantifying peak discharges for historical floods","docAbstract":"It is usually advantageous to use information regarding historical floods, if available, to define the flood-frequency relation for a stream. Peak stages can sometimes be determined for outstanding floods that occurred many years ago before systematic gaging of streams began. In the United States, this information is usually not available for more than 100-200 years, but in countries with long cultural histories, such as China, historical flood data are available at some sites as far back as 2,000 years or more. It is important in flood studies to be able to assign a maximum discharge rate and an associated error range to the historical flood.
This paper describes the significant characteristics and uncertainties of four commonly used methods for estimating the peak discharge of a flood. These methods are: (1) rating curve (stage-discharge relation) extension; (2) slope conveyance; (3) slope area; and (4) step backwater. Logarithmic extensions of rating curves are based on theoretical plotting techniques that results in straight line extensions provided that channel shape and roughness do not change significantly. The slope-conveyance and slope-area methods are based on the Manning equation, which requires specific data on channel size, shape and roughness, as well as the water-surface slope for one or more cross-sections in a relatively straight reach of channel. The slope-conveyance method is used primarily for shaping and extending rating curves, whereas the slope-area method is used for specific floods. The step-backwater method, also based on the Manning equation, requires more cross-section data than the slope-area ethod, but has a water-surface profile convergence characteristic that negates the need for known or estimated water-surface slope.
Uncertainties in calculating peak discharge for historical floods may be quite large. Various investigations have shown that errors in calculating peak discharges by the slope-area method under ideal conditions for recent floods (i.e., when flood elevations, slope and channel characteristics are reasonably certain), may be on the order of 10-25%. Under less than ideal conditions, where streams are hydraulically steep and rough, errors may be much larger. The additional uncertainties for historical floods created by the passage of time may result in even larger errors of peak discharge.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0022-1694(87)90141-7","issn":"00221694","usgsCitation":"Cook, J., 1987, Quantifying peak discharges for historical floods: Journal of Hydrology, v. 96, no. 1-4, p. 29-40, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90141-7.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"29","endPage":"40","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225470,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a91d4e4b0c8380cd804af","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cook, J.L.","contributorId":48323,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cook","given":"J.L.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369404,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014873,"text":"70014873 - 1987 - Linear error analysis of slope-area discharge determinations","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-04-23T16:19:03.131062","indexId":"70014873","displayToPublicDate":"2003-03-27T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2342,"text":"Journal of Hydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Linear error analysis of slope-area discharge determinations","docAbstract":"The slope-area method can be used to calculate peak flood discharges when current-meter measurements are not possible. This calculation depends on several quantities, such as water-surface fall, that are subject to large measurement errors. Other critical quantities, such as Manning's n, are not even amenable to direct measurement but can only be estimated. Finally, scour and fill may cause gross discrepancies between the observed condition of the channel and the hydraulic conditions during the flood peak.
The effects of these potential errors on the accuracy of the computed discharge have been estimated by statistical error analysis using a Taylor-series approximation of the discharge formula and the well-known formula for the variance of a sum of correlated random variates. The resultant error variance of the computed discharge is a weighted sum of covariances of the various observational errors. The weights depend on the hydraulic and geometric configuration of the channel.
The mathematical analysis confirms the rule of thumb that relative errors in computed discharge increase rapidly when velocity heads exceed the water-surface fall, when the flow field is expanding and when lateral velocity variation (alpha) is large. It also confirms the extreme importance of accurately assessing the presence of scour or fill.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0022-1694(87)90148-X","issn":"00221694","usgsCitation":"Kirby, W., 1987, Linear error analysis of slope-area discharge determinations: Journal of Hydrology, v. 96, no. 1-4, p. 125-138, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90148-X.","productDescription":"14 p.","startPage":"125","endPage":"138","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225981,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a47bee4b0c8380cd67951","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Kirby, W.H.","contributorId":65468,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kirby","given":"W.H.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369491,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014821,"text":"70014821 - 1987 - Probability plotting position formulas for flood records with historical information","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-04-23T16:13:51.042111","indexId":"70014821","displayToPublicDate":"2003-03-27T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2342,"text":"Journal of Hydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Probability plotting position formulas for flood records with historical information","docAbstract":"For purposes of evaluating fitted flood frequency distributions or for purposes of estimating distributions directly from plots of flood peaks versus exceedance probabilities (either by subjective or objective techniques), one needs a probability plotting position formula which can be applied to all of the flood data available: both systematic and historic floods. Some of the formulas in use are simply extensions of existing formulas (such as Hazen and Weibull) used on systematic flood records. New plotting position formulas proposed by Hirsch and Stedinger (1986) and in this paper are based on a recognition that the flood data arises from partially censored sampling of the flood record. The theoretical appropriateness, bias in probability and bias in discharge of the various plotting position formulas are considered. The methods are compared in terms of their effects on flood frequency estimation when an objective curve-fitting method of estimation is employed. Consideration is also given to the correct interpretation of the historical record length and the effect of incorrectly assuming that record length equals the time since the first known historical flood. This assumption is employed in many flood frequency studies and may result in a substantial bias in estimated design flood magnitudes.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0022-1694(87)90152-1","issn":"00221694","usgsCitation":"Hirsch, R., 1987, Probability plotting position formulas for flood records with historical information: Journal of Hydrology, v. 96, no. 1-4, p. 185-199, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90152-1.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"185","endPage":"199","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":226250,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a8cbae4b0c8380cd7e863","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hirsch, R.M.","contributorId":58639,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hirsch","given":"R.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369363,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70014784,"text":"70014784 - 1987 - Use of historical information in a maximum-likelihood framework","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-04-23T16:10:10.403714","indexId":"70014784","displayToPublicDate":"2003-03-27T00:00:00","publicationYear":"1987","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2342,"text":"Journal of Hydrology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Use of historical information in a maximum-likelihood framework","docAbstract":"This paper discusses flood-quantile estimators which can employ historical and paleoflood information, both when the magnitudes of historical flood peaks are known, and when only threshold-exceedance information is available. Maximum likelihood, quasi-maximum likelihood and curve fitting methods for simultaneous estimation of 1, 2 and 3 unknown parameters are examined. The information contained in a 100 yr record of historical observations, during which the flood perception threshold was near the 10 yr flood level (i.e., on average, one flood in ten is above the threshold and hence is recorded), is equivalent to roughly 43, 64 and 78 years of systematic record in terms of the improvement of the precision of 100 yr flood estimators when estimating 1, 2 and 3 parameters, respectively. With the perception threshold at the 100 yr flood level, the historical data was worth 13, 20 and 46 years of systematic data when estimating 1, 2 and 3 parameters, respectively.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/0022-1694(87)90154-5","issn":"00221694","usgsCitation":"Cohn, T., and Stedinger, J., 1987, Use of historical information in a maximum-likelihood framework: Journal of Hydrology, v. 96, no. 1-4, p. 215-223, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90154-5.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"215","endPage":"223","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":225661,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"96","issue":"1-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505bbf24e4b08c986b32999d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cohn, T.A.","contributorId":84789,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cohn","given":"T.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369288,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Stedinger, J.R.","contributorId":90733,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stedinger","given":"J.R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":369289,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ]}