Effective monitoring is fundamental to estimating wildlife population parameters with a level of accuracy and precision that is adequate to inform management decisions. However, managers must balance trade-offs between the costs of monitoring and the resulting data quality to identify cost-effective monitoring survey designs. As such, evaluating the expected performance of monitoring surveys relative to monitoring objectives prior to survey implementation is critical. In this study, we present a simulation framework for examining the accuracy and precision of age-specific survival estimates and the probability of detecting a change in survival within the context of mark–resight monitoring programs. We consider 90 survey designs that vary across marked cohort size, marking frequency, study duration, and resight probability (i.e., detection of marked individuals). We apply this approach to the design of a monitoring program for Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), which is complicated by heterogeneity in rookery accessibility, population sizes, and abundance trends across the species' range. To identify cost-effective survey designs in the absence of actual survey costs, we evaluated performance with respect to a relative-costs schema. Our results highlight survey designs that reliably meet pre-defined precision targets, with precision and accuracy strongly affected by marked cohort size, marking frequency, and study duration. We found that historical mark–resight survey effort for Steller sea lions has been sufficient to reliably achieve precision targets for younger age class survival probabilities only for rookeries where abundance has been stable or increasing. In contrast, the probability of achieving survival estimates with target levels of precision at rookeries where abundance has been declining is low (<25%) due to smaller marked cohort sizes, less frequent marking at remote sites, and fewer years of available data. Our results indicate that the precision of survival estimates for subpopulations of conservation concern can be improved by longer-term monitoring, although the constraints of monitoring small populations may limit the ability of biologists to detect changes in population dynamics on management-relevant time horizons. Our survey design evaluation framework can be applied in a variety of contexts to assist natural resource managers in developing cost-effective monitoring programs.
","language":"English","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70269","usgsCitation":"Warlick, A., Fadely, B., Mahoney, P., Melin, S., Gelatt, T., Raum-Suryan, K., and Converse, S.J., 2025, Evaluating mark–resight survey design performance using simulation: A case study of endangered Steller sea lions: Ecosphere, v. 16, no. 6, e70269, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70269.","productDescription":"e70269, 17 p.","ipdsId":"IP-168290","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":492472,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70269","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":492130,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska, California, Oregon","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n 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J.","contributorId":357827,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Warlick","given":"Amanda J.","affiliations":[{"id":6934,"text":"University of Washington","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":942667,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Fadely, Brian S.","contributorId":357828,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Fadely","given":"Brian S.","affiliations":[{"id":36612,"text":"National Marine Fisheries Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":942668,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Mahoney, Peter","contributorId":357829,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mahoney","given":"Peter","affiliations":[{"id":36612,"text":"National Marine Fisheries Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":942669,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Melin, Sharon R.","contributorId":357830,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Melin","given":"Sharon R.","affiliations":[{"id":36612,"text":"National Marine Fisheries Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":942670,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Gelatt, Tom","contributorId":357831,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Gelatt","given":"Tom","affiliations":[{"id":36612,"text":"National Marine Fisheries Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":942671,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Raum-Suryan, Kim","contributorId":357832,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Raum-Suryan","given":"Kim","affiliations":[{"id":36612,"text":"National Marine Fisheries Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":942672,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Converse, Sarah J. 0000-0002-3719-5441 sconverse@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3719-5441","contributorId":173772,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Converse","given":"Sarah","email":"sconverse@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":942673,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70273481,"text":"70273481 - 2025 - Evaluating slash piles as habitat for a threatened salamander","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2026-01-16T15:07:00.084464","indexId":"70273481","displayToPublicDate":"2025-06-16T09:02:27","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1636,"text":"Fire Ecology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Evaluating slash piles as habitat for a threatened salamander","docAbstract":"Amplified wildfire activity in forests of the western United States threatens biodiversity. Fuel treatments can reduce fire severity, modify fire behavior, and restore forest structure and composition, yet impacts of some treatments, including slash piling and burning, on wildlife have received little attention. Piling of residual woody material may create habitable microenvironments for species that require cool, moist microclimates for all biological and ecological functions. One such species, the Sacramento Mountain salamander (Aneides hardii Taylor), a relictual, endemic salamander narrowly distributed in the mountains of south-central New Mexico, USA, has been found below constructed slash piles within its range, but the characteristics of occupied slash piles and the extent of their occupancy has not yet been quantified. We surveyed for Sacramento Mountain salamanders in slash piles and under logs (cover objects) adjacent to piles and within a surrounding survey plot, and related salamander occupancy to slash pile and cover object characteristics, soil moisture and temperature, and environmental setting.
We found Sacramento Mountain salamanders in 50% of surveyed slash piles. About 90% of salamanders were found in piles that contained black plastic sheeting, which held accumulations of moist leaf litter and other forest debris. We found no differences in pile characteristics, soil variables, or environmental setting between piles occupied by salamanders and piles in which no salamanders were detected. Salamander density was highest in slash piles, ~ 10% lower under cover objects in the survey area, and ~ 23% lower under cover objects adjacent to slash piles.
Slash piles serve as habitat for Sacramento Mountain salamanders. Our results suggest that within our study area or similar environments within the species range, any comparable slash pile has the potential to be occupied by salamanders. Species and habitat conservation measures indicated by this study and the timing of historical detections into mid-October include constructing smaller, pyramidal piles that minimize log-on-log or log-ground contact, avoiding the inclusion of black plastic in piles, limiting residence time of piles on the landscape, and initiating pile burning in late October or early November, when most salamanders are likely to have retreated below the ground surface.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","doi":"10.1186/s42408-025-00381-4","collaboration":"University of Rhode Island","usgsCitation":"Loehman, R.A., and Karraker, N.E., 2025, Evaluating slash piles as habitat for a threatened salamander: Fire Ecology, v. 21, 36, 18 p., https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-025-00381-4.","productDescription":"36, 18 p.","ipdsId":"IP-124527","costCenters":[{"id":118,"text":"Alaska Science Center Geography","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":498916,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-025-00381-4","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":498739,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"New Mexico","otherGeospatial":"Lincoln National Forest","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -105.4616018244409,\n 32.86352310900293\n ],\n [\n -105.4616018244409,\n 32.775897714349966\n ],\n [\n -105.30671714574738,\n 32.775897714349966\n ],\n [\n -105.30671714574738,\n 32.86352310900293\n ],\n [\n -105.4616018244409,\n 32.86352310900293\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"21","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Loehman, Rachel A. 0000-0001-7680-1865 rloehman@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7680-1865","contributorId":187605,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Loehman","given":"Rachel","email":"rloehman@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":118,"text":"Alaska Science Center Geography","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":953895,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Karraker, Nancy E","contributorId":365192,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Karraker","given":"Nancy","middleInitial":"E","affiliations":[{"id":6922,"text":"University of Rhode Island","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":953896,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70268059,"text":"cir1558 - 2025 - U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-07-01T13:42:24.652181","indexId":"cir1558","displayToPublicDate":"2025-06-12T12:08:05","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":307,"text":"Circular","code":"CIR","onlineIssn":"2330-5703","printIssn":"1067-084X","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"1558","displayTitle":"U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy to Address Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Its Effects on Wildlife Health 2025–29","title":"U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29","docAbstract":"Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an ecologically and economically important animal disease that can also directly affect humans (a “zoonotic” disease). HPAI was once limited almost exclusively to domestic poultry but has rapidly adapted to diverse animal hosts. Viruses causing HPAI now appear to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds largely independent of poultry, though HPAI continues to cause considerable economic losses and supply chain disruptions in the domestic poultry trade. Coincident with the adaptation of HPAI viruses to wild birds, particularly waterfowl and gulls, increasingly diverse wild bird hosts are becoming exposed to HPAI, often resulting in disease and death. More sporadically, HPAI has caused mass mortality events, particularly among seabirds. Furthermore, viral spillover to wild and domestic mammals has become more common. Spillover to wild mammals has resulted in mortality among diverse terrestrial and marine taxa, including episodic losses of such scale as to represent potential conservation challenges. Since approximately March 2024, HPAI has also affected dairy cows, which represents a new threat to the agricultural economy. Lastly, HPAI has increasingly affected humans through domestic animal exposures, exemplifying the considerable implications of this disease beyond animal health.
Rapid changes in the ecology of HPAI are currently outpacing research efforts. For example, it is not entirely clear which newly established hosts may become reservoirs for HPAI viruses (in other words, capable of maintaining HPAI viruses within a broad population indefinitely) and how this may influence viral evolution and dissemination. As a result, there are considerable information gaps regarding HPAI in wildlife that, if filled, would improve the ability of scientists, managers, agricultural industry representatives, and healthcare professionals to understand and to anticipate the effects of HPAI on wild animal, domestic animal, environmental, and human health (“One Health”).
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the lead Federal agency providing scientific research on avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including HPAI viruses, that affect wildlife for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has management authority. States have jurisdiction over wildlife on Federal lands within their borders (43 CFR § 24.3), so the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) coordinates with State natural resource management agencies. The EMA focuses its research on HPAI through priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team (app. 1). Priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team are based on Administration priorities, Congressional direction, and discussions with State, Federal, and Tribal natural resource management agencies that identify specific scientific gaps that need to be filled to inform sound wildlife management decisions. Notable non-DOI Federal partners include the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the lead for the HPAI regulatory response in poultry and livestock, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the lead agency for the HPAI response pertaining to human health.
The USGS offers unique expertise and capacity pertaining to research on diseases affecting free-ranging wildlife populations. This expertise has been critical to interjurisdictional surveillance and capacity-building efforts, including programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the CDC. The USGS also provides resources, guidance, and tools to inform surveillance and interventions conducted by natural resource management agencies. More specifically, the USGS EMA provides objective and rigorous scientific data for inferring (1) the utility of new methods to detect and characterize AIVs, including those maintained in wildlife and the environment; (2) effects of HPAI on wildlife; (3) spatiotemporal patterns of wildlife host and AIV dispersal; (4) the presence and persistence of AIVs in the environment; (5) how HPAI in wildlife influences consumptive and nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife; (6) how new tools and scientific methods may promote sound management decisions for HPAI-affected wildlife, particularly species of conservation concern; and (7) the combined effects of HPAI and other stressors on ecosystem health and resiliency.
This science strategy builds upon research outlined in a previous USGS science strategy for HPAI (2016–20) by Harris and others (2016). This strategy also details research priorities identified by the Administration (for example, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2025) and others based on USGS Avian Influenza Science Team discussions with natural resource management agencies to address HPAI and wildlife health over the next 5 years (2025–29). This strategy presents 7 goals and 26 objectives that focus USGS and partner efforts on priorities that will fill data gaps regarding the effects of HPAI on wildlife managed by or co-managed with the U.S. Department of the Interior such that agencies and partners might anticipate or limit adverse effects on public resources. This strategy also identifies research priorities intended to address HPAI in wildlife and wildlife habitat that are anticipated to support interjurisdictional One Health efforts.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/cir1558","usgsCitation":"Ramey, A.M., Prosser, D.J., Hubbard, L.E., Vazquez-Meves, G., George, A., and Hopkins, M.C., 2025, U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29:\nU.S. Geological Survey Circular 1558, 26 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/cir1558.","productDescription":"vi, 26 p.","onlineOnly":"Y","ipdsId":"IP-174779","costCenters":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":506,"text":"Office of the AD Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37947,"text":"Upper Midwest Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":65299,"text":"Alaska Science Center Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":490570,"rank":3,"type":{"id":22,"text":"Related Work"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161121","text":"Open-File Report 2016-1121","description":"OFR 2016-1121","linkHelpText":"- U.S. Geological Survey science strategy for highly pathogenic avian influenza in wildlife and the environment (2016–2020)"},{"id":490421,"rank":4,"type":{"id":31,"text":"Publication XML"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1558/cir1558.XML"},{"id":490420,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1558/cir1558.pdf","text":"Report","size":"8.5 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"Circular 1558"},{"id":490419,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1558/coverthb.jpg"}],"contact":"Director, Alaska Science Center
4210 University Drive
Anchorage, Alaska 99508
Volcano seismicity is often detected and classified based on its spectral properties. However, the wide variety of volcano seismic signals and increasing amounts of data make accurate, consistent, and efficient detection and classification challenging. Machine learning (ML) has proven very effective at detecting and classifying tectonic seismicity, particularly using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and leveraging labeled datasets from regional seismic networks. Progress has been made applying ML to volcano seismicity, but efforts have typically been focused on a single volcano and are often hampered by the limited availability of training data. We build on the method of Tan et al. [2024] (10.1029/2024JB029194) to generalize a spectrogram-based CNN termed the VOlcano Infrasound and Seismic Spectrogram Neural Network (VOISS-Net) to detect and classify volcano seismicity at any volcano. We use a diverse training dataset of over 270,000 spectrograms from multiple volcanoes: Pavlof, Semisopochnoi, Tanaga, Takawangha, and Redoubt volcanoes\\replaced (Alaska, USA); Mt. Etna (Italy); and Kīlauea, Hawai`i (USA). These volcanoes present a wide range of volcano seismic signals, source-receiver distances, and eruption styles. Our generalized VOISS-Net model achieves an accuracy of 87 % on the test set. We apply this model to continuous data from several volcanoes and eruptions included within and outside our training set, and find that multiple types of tremor, explosions, earthquakes, long-period events, and noise are successfully detected and classified. The model occasionally confuses transient signals such as earthquakes and explosions and misclassifies seismicity not included in the training dataset (e.g. teleseismic earthquakes). We envision the generalized VOISS-Net model to be applicable in both research and operational volcano monitoring settings.
Developing conservation strategies for species vulnerable to the effects of climate change, like polar bears (Ursus maritimus), can be challenging given the uncertainty of future environmental conditions. Effective conservation planning requires identifying and ranking threats to the persistence of polar bears throughout their circumpolar range and then assessing the ability of mitigative actions to aid in meeting plan objectives. We used a Bayesian network model to (1) characterize the relative importance of multiple biotic and anthropogenic stressors on four ecoregional polar bear populations, at two future decadal time periods, and based on two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSPs] 2.6 [low] and 8.5 [high]); and (2) identify achievable management actions that may enhance the prospects of long-term persistence. Normative model runs indicated that populations in all four ecoregions incurred increasing probabilities of being decreased or greatly decreased over time. The probabilities of polar bear populations being decreased or greatly decreased from mid- to end of the century ranged from ~55% to 87% for the SSP 2.6 emissions scenario, and 82% to 94% for the SSP 8.5 emissions scenario among ecoregions. Arctic sea ice conditions and marine prey availability had the greatest influences on future polar bear population outcomes and overrode any relative influence from all other stressors. Hunting mortality was the most influential individual anthropogenic stressor in the Archipelago and Seasonal Ice Ecoregions, whereas terrestrial refugia quality grouped with various anthropogenic activities or factors (e.g., resource extraction, oil spill) was most influential for the Polar Basin Divergent Ice and Polar Basin Convergent Ice ecoregions. Our findings indicate that near-term proactive management of multiple anthropogenic stressors could cumulatively reduce the decline in populations such that if future sea ice habitat loss is eventually curtailed, population abundance would be greater than it would have been otherwise. Additionally, our findings suggest that there is value in tailoring management actions to address ecoregion-specific threats, which may prove useful in informing the development of future circumpolar conservation plans.
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We assembled a multi-taxa tracking dataset (11 million geopositions from 15,845 tracked individuals across 121 species) to provide a global assessment of space use of highly mobile marine megafauna, showing that 63% of the area that they cover is used 80% of the time as important migratory corridors or residence areas. The GBF 30% threshold (Target 3) will be insufficient for marine megafauna’s effective conservation, leaving important areas exposed to major anthropogenic threats. Coupling area protection with mitigation strategies (e.g., fishing regulation, wildlife-traffic separation) will be essential to reach international goals and conserve biodiversity.
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U.S. Geological Survey
Box 25046, Mail Stop 973
Denver, CO 80225
The California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) is a critically endangered species with populations that are not currently self-sustaining. Although understanding nest success is key to understanding trends in their populations, field monitoring of condor nests has become increasingly challenging as the number of nesting condors has increased and their range has expanded. We investigated whether California Condor nest fate could be accurately estimated from telemetry data with limited field observations. Our study focused on the southern California population of California Condors (2015–2022), and we used a recently published Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that combines movement data and occasional field observations to estimate individual-level and population-level nest success. The model detected shifts in space use to categorize if each nest failed or if a young fledged. Estimated model parameters suggested that after nest failure, condors shifted toward more expansive space use. Additional field observations, not included as data in the model, provided evidence that we accurately categorized nest fate for 63 out of 65 California Condor nesting attempts. Finally, we scaled individual-level reproductive success to estimate annual population-level nesting success. These methods offer managers a way to reduce field monitoring efforts while still allowing for estimation of nest success, which will be key as the breeding populations of California Condors continue to grow and become more widely spread across the landscape.
","language":"English","publisher":"Raptor Research Foundation","doi":"10.3356/jrr2464","usgsCitation":"Blackburn, A., Eisaguirre, J.M., Brandt, J.C., Punzalan, A., Mcmahon, L., Astell, M., Seal Faith, N., Meyer, D.J., and Sandhaus, E., 2025, Modeling individual-level and population-level nest success of California Condors from movement data: Journal of Raptor Research, v. 59, no. 3, jrr2464, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3356/jrr2464.","productDescription":"jrr2464, 11 p.","ipdsId":"IP-169837","costCenters":[{"id":65299,"text":"Alaska Science Center Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488102,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3356/jrr2464","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":486571,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -121.32211025552813,\n 36.28940419433357\n ],\n [\n -120.00478872484904,\n 34.43478894822218\n ],\n [\n -118.61047283563802,\n 34.31101307176946\n ],\n [\n -117.16910974890232,\n 34.36199636242087\n ],\n [\n -117.12500300122358,\n 35.49657369871312\n ],\n [\n -118.83340436132296,\n 37.334518704354934\n ],\n [\n -121.32211025552813,\n 36.28940419433357\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"59","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Blackburn, Andrea","contributorId":355921,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Blackburn","given":"Andrea","affiliations":[{"id":84857,"text":"Santa Barbara Zoo","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938382,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Eisaguirre, Joseph Michael 0000-0002-0450-8472","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0450-8472","contributorId":301980,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Eisaguirre","given":"Joseph","email":"","middleInitial":"Michael","affiliations":[{"id":65299,"text":"Alaska Science Center Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":938383,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Brandt, Joseph C.","contributorId":288474,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Brandt","given":"Joseph","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":61768,"text":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Hopper Mountain National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Ventura, CA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938384,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Punzalan, Arianna","contributorId":355922,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Punzalan","given":"Arianna","affiliations":[{"id":6661,"text":"US Fish and Wildlife Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938385,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Mcmahon, Laura","contributorId":275577,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mcmahon","given":"Laura","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":938386,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Astell, Molly","contributorId":199753,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Astell","given":"Molly","affiliations":[{"id":6661,"text":"US Fish and Wildlife Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938387,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Seal Faith, Nadya E.","contributorId":355923,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Seal Faith","given":"Nadya E.","affiliations":[{"id":84857,"text":"Santa Barbara Zoo","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938388,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Meyer, David J.","contributorId":149174,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Meyer","given":"David","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":938389,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Sandhaus, Estelle A.","contributorId":355924,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Sandhaus","given":"Estelle A.","affiliations":[{"id":84857,"text":"Santa Barbara Zoo","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938390,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9}]}} ,{"id":70267676,"text":"70267676 - 2025 - Linking fire radiative power to land cover, fire history, and environmental setting in Alaska, 2003–2022","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-05-29T14:11:26.313587","indexId":"70267676","displayToPublicDate":"2025-05-21T09:06:54","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2083,"text":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Linking fire radiative power to land cover, fire history, and environmental setting in Alaska, 2003–2022","docAbstract":"Fire radiative power (FRP) shows promise as a diagnostic and predictive indicator of fire behavior and post-fire effects in Alaska, USA.
To investigate relationships between FRP, vegetation functional groups, and environmental settings in Alaska (2003–2022) under various fire history conditions.
We tested for distinctness of MODIS FRP distributions associated with vegetation classes and fire legacies (frequency and number of previous burns). We used a random forest model to examine relative importance of vegetation class for FRP versus bottom-up biophysical and temporal parameters.
FRP distributions are statistically distinct among vegetation functional groups with contrasting fuel biomass, or within functional groups with contrasting burn characteristics. Location and topography, which constrain vegetation class, strongly determine FRP, and fire history is of lesser importance over the 19-year analysis period.
FRP can be used to identify wildfire consumption in dissimilar vegetation classes but is highly conditioned by geographic location. The complex and evolving vegetation composition of post-fire boreal landscapes precludes a clear association of expected FRP at distinct stages of recovery.
These results can inform further study of FRP as an indicator of fire behavior and fuel consumption and for informing dynamics of post-fire recovery across Alaska.
The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service have developed a three-tiered strategy for monitoring eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, that targets different spatial and temporal scales. The broadest-scale monitoring (tier-1) uses satellite imagery about every 5 years to delineate the spatial extent of eelgrass beds throughout the lagoon. This report describes the most recent (mid-2020s) tier-1 eelgrass monitoring at Izembek Lagoon. The monitoring effort began by canvasing all satellite imagery collected during summer, under clear daytime skies and at low-tide, since the last tier-1 effort in 2006. Two eelgrass maps of Izembek Lagoon were generated by first creating maps of spectrally unique classes from two Sentinel-2 satellite images collected on July 1, 2016, and August 14, 2020, then attributing those spectral classes with information about eelgrass conditions based on field data. Specifically, maps depicting various eelgrass metrics, such as percentage of cover and modeled biomass, were generated using summaries of the ground data that spatially intersected each spectral class. Comparisons of the 2016 and 2020 Sentinel-2 maps showing eelgrass distributional extent, as well as a 2006 Landsat map, indicated that areas where eelgrass presence may have declined during 2006–20 were most prevalent in the central part of Izembek Lagoon. More recently, during 2016-20, areas of possible biomass decline were more prevalent in the southern part of the lagoon. Monitoring eelgrass conditions at Izembek Lagoon with satellite imagery and concurrent ground data allows conditions to be compared over time, but the influences of tide levels, growing season phenology, and spatiotemporal co-registration accuracy should be considered when designing and interpreting change detection analyses.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20251007","collaboration":"Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service","programNote":"Land Management Research Program","usgsCitation":"Douglas, D.C., Fleming, M.D., Patil, V.P., and Ward, D.H., 2025, Mapping eelgrass (Zostera marina) cover and biomass at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, using in-situ field data and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2025–1007, 30 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20251007. [Supersedes preprint https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.07.607047.]","productDescription":"Report: vii, 30 p.; Data Release","onlineOnly":"Y","ipdsId":"IP-169599","costCenters":[{"id":65299,"text":"Alaska Science Center Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":485960,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2025/1007/coverthb2.jpg"},{"id":485963,"rank":4,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P1HLTAHD","text":"USGS data release","description":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Eelgrass (Zostera marina) maps from 2016 and 2020, at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska"},{"id":485961,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2025/1007/ofr20251007.pdf","text":"Report","size":"10.1 MB","linkFileType":{"id":1,"text":"pdf"},"description":"OFR 2025-1007"},{"id":485962,"rank":3,"type":{"id":39,"text":"HTML Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20251007/full","text":"Report","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"},"description":"OFR 2025-1007"},{"id":485964,"rank":5,"type":{"id":34,"text":"Image Folder"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2025/1007/images"},{"id":485965,"rank":6,"type":{"id":31,"text":"Publication XML"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2025/1007/ofr20251007.XML"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Izembek Lagoon","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -163.098854980302,\n 55.171004418891414\n ],\n [\n -162.87580882559715,\n 55.150219377165826\n ],\n [\n -162.79513255687405,\n 55.2819754305454\n ],\n [\n -162.63219813180595,\n 55.3494888427272\n ],\n [\n -162.52937543637472,\n 55.342292888511395\n ],\n [\n -162.47875503247008,\n 55.40162041992025\n ],\n [\n -162.50248334680037,\n 55.47879257840398\n ],\n [\n -162.74767592913727,\n 55.39443394016618\n ],\n [\n -162.92959300566955,\n 55.31259575418295\n ],\n [\n -163.098854980302,\n 55.171004418891414\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","contact":"Director, Alaska Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
4210 University Drive
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Due to rapid climate change, arctic ecosystems are experiencing an increase in disturbances including localized land-surface failures caused by melting ground ice (thermokarst failures). These failures result in the mass transport of sediment and organic materials into surface waters, with the potential to dramatically alter aquatic ecosystem function and biotic interactions. We coupled direct comparisons and long-term data of a suite of abiotic and biotic variables in a thermokarst-impacted lake and nearby reference lake to assess the impacts of thermokarst failure. After the thermokarst failure and relative to long-term averages, water transparency was substantially reduced. We hypothesized there would be subsequent changes to lower trophic levels and profound declines in fish foraging efficiency. However, these characteristics were within the range of natural variability and/or rapidly recovered to values within the range of long-term variability. In addition, although there was limited evidence of taxa-specific changes, we did not observe any strong changes in the total relative densities, growth rates, or composition of the bacterioplankton and zooplankton communities, benthic macroinvertebrates, or changes in fish diet, that could be attributed statistically to the thermokarst event. In sum, the thermokarst disturbance had substantial effects on water transparency and some lower trophic levels, which surprisingly were not manifested in higher trophic levels. Overall, the lake ecosystem appeared resistant to thermokarst disturbance with rapid recovery within two years after the disturbance.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer Nature","doi":"10.1007/s00442-025-05681-9","collaboration":"Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game","usgsCitation":"Budy, P., Pennock, C., Messenger, S., Pehrson, H., Adler, E., Thiede, G., Christman, N.R., Crump, B.C., Giblin, A., and Kling, G., 2025, Rapid recovery of an arctic lake ecosystem from a pulse disturbance caused by thermokarst failure: Oecologia, v. 207, 82, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-025-05681-9.","productDescription":"82, 16 p.","ipdsId":"IP-162860","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":487996,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-025-05681-9","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":486523,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Toolik Lake","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": 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Most studies, however, are often short in duration or do not encompass the large spatial extent necessary to measure the potential effects of human activities on population vital rates. Furthermore, the life history features of species with high fecundity and excellent dispersal capabilities can act as buffers against the potential negative effects of human activities on their populations. We used a 30-year dataset of genetic samples from gray wolves (Canis lupus) in Alaska, USA, to examine genetic connectivity and diversity between National Park units separated by a region with recurrent human-caused mortality. We found that the two protected populations were genetically similar and that dispersal events occurred between them even though they are > 450 km apart. We posit that intact ecosystems and a history of continuous distribution of wolves surrounding the affected regions likely maintained the genetic connectivity of wolves in the two protected areas.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1002/ece3.71420","usgsCitation":"Cerreta, A., Adams, J., Borg, B., Sorum, M., Waits, L., and Ausband, D.E., 2025, Genetic connectivity in a cooperatively breeding carnivore between two protected areas: Ecology and Evolution, v. 15, no. 5, e71420, 10 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71420.","productDescription":"e71420, 10 p.","ipdsId":"IP-158851","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":492874,"rank":2,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71420","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":492626,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Denali National Park and Preserve, Yukon- Charley Rivers National Preserve","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -148.7512872450975,\n 64.07437550215425\n ],\n [\n -153.00052847916817,\n 64.07437550215425\n ],\n [\n -153.00052847916817,\n 62.276194894069874\n ],\n [\n -148.7512872450975,\n 62.276194894069874\n ],\n [\n -148.7512872450975,\n 64.07437550215425\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -141.0182219902975,\n 65.5653487163298\n ],\n [\n -144.37903864723086,\n 65.5653487163298\n ],\n [\n -144.37903864723086,\n 64.4468015781325\n ],\n [\n -141.0182219902975,\n 64.4468015781325\n ],\n [\n -141.0182219902975,\n 65.5653487163298\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"15","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cerreta, Ariana L.","contributorId":358318,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Cerreta","given":"Ariana L.","affiliations":[{"id":36394,"text":"University of Idaho","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":943537,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Adams, Jennifer R.","contributorId":358321,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Adams","given":"Jennifer R.","affiliations":[{"id":36394,"text":"University of Idaho","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":943539,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Borg, Bridget L.","contributorId":358323,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Borg","given":"Bridget L.","affiliations":[{"id":36189,"text":"National Park Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":943540,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Sorum, Mathew S.","contributorId":358326,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Sorum","given":"Mathew S.","affiliations":[{"id":36189,"text":"National Park Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":943541,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Waits, Lisette P.","contributorId":358329,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Waits","given":"Lisette P.","affiliations":[{"id":36394,"text":"University of Idaho","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":943542,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Ausband, David Edward 0000-0001-9204-9837","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9204-9837","contributorId":275329,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ausband","given":"David","email":"","middleInitial":"Edward","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":943538,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70267387,"text":"70267387 - 2025 - Linking permafrost to the abundance, biomass, and energy density of fish in Arctic headwater streams","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-05-21T14:10:33.157869","indexId":"70267387","displayToPublicDate":"2025-05-13T08:59:33","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1475,"text":"Ecosphere","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Linking permafrost to the abundance, biomass, and energy density of fish in Arctic headwater streams","docAbstract":"Permafrost thaw alters groundwater flow, river hydrology, stream-catchment interactions, and the availability of carbon and nutrients in headwater streams. The impact of permafrost on watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry of headwater streams has been demonstrated, but there is little understanding of how permafrost influences fish in these ecosystems. We examined relations among permafrost characteristics, the resulting changes in water temperature, stream hydrology (e.g., discharge flashiness), and macroinvertebrates, with the abundance, biomass, and energy density of juvenile Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) and Arctic Grayling (Thymallus arcticus) across 10 headwater streams in northwestern Alaska. Macroinvertebrate density was driven by concentrations of dissolved carbon and nutrients supporting stream food webs. Dolly Varden abundance was primarily related to water temperature with fewer fish in warmer streams, whereas Dolly Varden energy density decreased with the flashiness of the headwater streams. Dolly Varden biomass was related to both temperature and bottom-up food web effects. The energy density of Arctic Grayling decreased with warmer temperatures and discharge flashiness. These relations demonstrate the importance of terrestrial–aquatic connections in permafrost landscapes and indicate the complexity of landscape effects on fish. Because permafrost thaw is one of the most impactful changes occurring as the Arctic warms, an improved understanding of how stream temperature, hydrology, and bottom-up food web processes influence fish populations can aid forecasting of future conditions across the Arctic.
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U.S. Geological Survey
Box 25046, Mail Stop 973
Denver, CO 80225
Aim
Recent methodological advances for studying how animals move and use space with telemetry data have focused on fine-scale, more mechanistic inference. However, in many cases, researchers and managers remain interested in larger scale questions regarding species distribution and habitat use across study areas, landscapes, or seasonal ranges. Point processes offer a unified framework for many methods applied in studies of species distribution and resource selection; however, challenges remain in terms of dealing with temporal autocorrelation common in many types of telemetry data collected from animal locations.
Innovation
Space–time point processes (STPPs) have a unique property, in that marginalising time offers a connection between individual animal movement and broader point processes, yet this property has seen little attention in both statistical and applied research. In this paper, we first present some of the details of this marginalisation property and methods for applying marginalised STPPs (mSTTPs) to autocorrelated telemetry data and then apply a mSTTP in a case study on the summer space use and habitat selection of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska.
Main Conclusions
The case study demonstrated that an mSTPP approach can improve inference over other commonly used methods in terms of its ability to account for temporal autocorrelation and offers greater precision in parameter estimates and improved predictions of space use. As this method fits conveniently into the existing point process frameworks, it offers a practical solution to dealing with temporal autocorrelation inherent to many types of telemetry data when research questions center around broader scale patterns of animal habitat selection and space use.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/ddi.70028","usgsCitation":"Eisaguirre, J.M., Adams, L., Borg, B., and Johnson, H.E., 2025, Marginalizing time in habitat selection and species distribution models improves inference: Diversity and Distributions, v. 31, no. 5, e70028, 9 p., https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70028.","productDescription":"e70028, 9 p.","ipdsId":"IP-170546","costCenters":[{"id":65299,"text":"Alaska Science Center Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488294,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70028","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":485648,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Denali National Park and Preserve","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -151.66979451782657,\n 64.15039809953939\n ],\n [\n -151.66979451782657,\n 63.132768852129516\n ],\n [\n -147.1767819339525,\n 63.132768852129516\n ],\n [\n -147.1767819339525,\n 64.15039809953939\n ],\n [\n -151.66979451782657,\n 64.15039809953939\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"31","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Eisaguirre, Joseph Michael 0000-0002-0450-8472","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0450-8472","contributorId":301980,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Eisaguirre","given":"Joseph","email":"","middleInitial":"Michael","affiliations":[{"id":65299,"text":"Alaska Science Center Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":936464,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Adams, Layne G. 0000-0001-6212-2896 ladams@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6212-2896","contributorId":2776,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Adams","given":"Layne G.","email":"ladams@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":936465,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Borg, Bridget","contributorId":173862,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Borg","given":"Bridget","affiliations":[{"id":27306,"text":"Denali Natil Park and Preserve","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":936466,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Johnson, Heather E. 0000-0001-5392-7676 hejohnson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5392-7676","contributorId":205919,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Johnson","given":"Heather","email":"hejohnson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":382,"text":"Michigan Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":936467,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70266848,"text":"70266848 - 2025 - Organic matter composition versus microbial source: Controls on carbon loss from fen wetland and permafrost soils","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-05-13T15:35:55.063862","indexId":"70266848","displayToPublicDate":"2025-05-07T10:26:06","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":9326,"text":"JGR Biogeosciences","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Organic matter composition versus microbial source: Controls on carbon loss from fen wetland and permafrost soils","docAbstract":"Wetland and permafrost soils contain some of Earth's largest reservoirs of organic carbon, and these stores are threatened by rapid warming across the Arctic. Nearly half of northern wetlands are affected by permafrost. As these ecosystems warm, the cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the opportunities for microbial degradation are changing. This is particularly evident as the relationship between wetland and permafrost DOM dynamics evolves, especially with the introduction of permafrost-derived DOM into wetland environments. Thus, understanding the interplay of DOM composition and microbial communities from wetlands and permafrost is critical to predicting the impact of released carbon on global carbon cycling. As little is understood about the interactions between wetland active layer and permafrost-derived sources as they intermingle, we conducted experimental bioincubations of mixtures of DOM and microbial communities from two fen wetland depths (shallow: 0–15 cm, and deep: 15–30 cm) and two ages of permafrost soil (Holocene and Pleistocene). We found that the source of microbial inoculum was not a significant driver of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) degradation across treatments; rather, DOM source and specifically, DOM molecular composition, controlled the rate of DOC loss over 100 days of bioincubations. DOC loss across all treatments was negatively correlated with modified aromaticity index, O/C, and the relative abundance of condensed aromatic and polyphenolic formula, and positively correlated with H/C and the relative abundance of aliphatic and peptide-like formula. Pleistocene permafrost-derived DOC exhibited ∼70% loss during the bioincubation driven by its initial molecular-level composition, highlighting its high bioavailability irrespective of microbial source.
","language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1029/2024JG008445","usgsCitation":"Starr, S., Wickland, K., Kellerman, A.M., McKenna, A.M., Kurek, M., Miller, A., Karsaras, A., Douglas, T.A., Mackelprang, R., Shade, A., and Spencer, R., 2025, Organic matter composition versus microbial source: Controls on carbon loss from fen wetland and permafrost soils: JGR Biogeosciences, v. 130, no. 5, e2024JG008445, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JG008445.","productDescription":"e2024JG008445, 17 p.","ipdsId":"IP-162667","costCenters":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488194,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jg008445","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":485821,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","city":"Fairbanks","otherGeospatial":"Big Trail Lake","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -147.87084295958078,\n 64.9276059180502\n ],\n [\n -147.87084295958078,\n 64.9051043539906\n ],\n [\n -147.7757330370365,\n 64.9051043539906\n ],\n [\n -147.7757330370365,\n 64.9276059180502\n ],\n [\n -147.87084295958078,\n 64.9276059180502\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"130","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Starr, Sommer F.","contributorId":355129,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Starr","given":"Sommer F.","affiliations":[{"id":7092,"text":"Florida State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":936901,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wickland, Kimberly 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University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":936907,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Douglas, Thomas A. 0000-0003-1314-1905","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1314-1905","contributorId":64553,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Douglas","given":"Thomas","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":33087,"text":"Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":true,"id":936908,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Mackelprang, Rachel","contributorId":200882,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mackelprang","given":"Rachel","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":7080,"text":"California State University, Northridge","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":936909,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Shade, Ashley L.","contributorId":355140,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Shade","given":"Ashley L.","affiliations":[{"id":16636,"text":"CNRS","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":936910,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Spencer, Robert G.M.","contributorId":173304,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Spencer","given":"Robert G.M.","affiliations":[{"id":16705,"text":"Woods Hole Research Center","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":936911,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11}]}} ,{"id":70266492,"text":"70266492 - 2025 - Using long-term ecological datasets to unravel the impacts of short-term meteorological disturbances on phytoplankton communities","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-05-08T14:12:51.567682","indexId":"70266492","displayToPublicDate":"2025-05-06T09:07:04","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1696,"text":"Freshwater Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Using long-term ecological datasets to unravel the impacts of short-term meteorological disturbances on phytoplankton communities","docAbstract":"Extreme meteorological events such as storms are increasing in frequency and intensity, but our knowledge of their impacts on aquatic ecosystems and emergent system properties is limited. Understanding the ecological impacts of storms on the dynamics of primary producers remains a challenge that needs to be addressed to assess the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to extreme weather conditions and climate change.
One promising approach to gain insights into storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics is to analyse long-term monitoring datasets. However, such an approach requires disentangling the impacts of short-term meteorological disturbances from the effects of the seasonal trajectories of meteorological conditions. To this end, we applied boosted regression tree models to phytoplankton time series from eight relatively large lakes on four continents, coupled with a procedure adapted to detect and quantify rare events.
Overall, the patterns and potential drivers we identified provide important insights into the responses of lakes to short-term meteorological events and highlight differences in the response of phytoplankton communities according to lake morphological characteristics. Our results indicated that deepened thermoclines and lake-specific combinations of drivers describing altered thermal structures caused deviations from the typical trajectories of seasonal phytoplankton succession. For shallow polymictic lakes, shifts in phytoplankton succession also depended on changes in light availability.
Overall, our study highlights the value of long-term monitoring to improve our understanding of phytoplankton sensitivity to short-term meteorological disturbances.
No abstract available.
High spatial and temporal resolution models are essential for understanding future climate impacts and developing effective climate resilience plans. However, existing regional and global river models often lack the resolution needed to accurately capture local conditions. This study uses a series of high-resolution models, including the Regional Arctic System Model, mizuRoute, and the river basin model, to analyze Arctic and sub-Arctic Alaskan hydrology. We compare a historical baseline (1991–2020) with six midcentury (2035–64) futures: two pseudo–global warming scenarios based on historical meteorology and four direct dynamically downscaled global climate models. The six futures reveal significant uncertainty in future annual discharge and peak flows, although a widespread increase in discharge during April (+63%) and October (+31%) is consistently shown across models. Projected increases in rain and shifting weather patterns lead to a transition from snow to rain in spring and autumn, reducing the fraction of snowmelt contributing to river discharge. Rising evapotranspiration moderates discharge changes, particularly in autumn, by offsetting precipitation increases. Average summer river temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 1.5°C, doubling the number of river segments that experience 18°C days, a critical threshold for salmon survival, and intensifying the heat flux to the ocean adding an average of 3.3 × 1012 MJ yr−1. These changes in the hydrologic cycle could profoundly impact riverine and oceanic ecosystems, posing substantial challenges to communities reliant on these environments.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Meteorological Society","doi":"10.1175/JHM-D-24-0121.1","usgsCitation":"Blaskey, D., Cheng, Y., Newman, A.C., Koch, J.C., Goseff, M., and Musselman, K., 2025, Alaskan hydrology in transition: Changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns are projected to reshape seasonal streamflow and water temperature by midcentury (2035-2064): Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 26, no. 5, p. 613-626, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-24-0121.1.","productDescription":"14 p.","startPage":"613","endPage":"626","ipdsId":"IP-170645","costCenters":[{"id":120,"text":"Alaska Science Center Water","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":490374,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Canada, United States","state":"Alaska, 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The small population size and ephemeral behavior of this species have limited the collection of basic biological information and hindered the identification of potential drivers of this decline. Significant unknowns include the factors, and their relative importance, influencing nest survival. To investigate these questions, we estimated daily nest survival (DNS) for 148 nests from 5 breeding colonies during 2017 to 2020 in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska with 105 monitored using remote cameras. We used the nest survival model in program MARK to estimate DNS rates as a function of colony location, year, within-season time trends, vegetation cover and height, and 6 daily weather covariates. Our top model suggested that DNS rates increased with vegetation height, decreased as the season progressed, and included a significant interaction between year and colony. Average nest success (i.e., percent chance that a nest survived to hatch) over the 22-day incubation period varied by colony but was generally very low, averaging 1.2% (95% CI = 0–11%) in 2017–2018 to 14% (95% CI = 0.1–38%) in 2019–2020 across all colonies. The importance of year in the model suggests that a large-scale annual driver, like food availability, may have played an important role in this species' breeding success. A severe marine heatwave was present in the Gulf of Alaska during 2014–2016 and our results suggest that some effects of this anomalous event, such as reduced prey availability, lingered even after temperatures returned to normal. Additionally, the variation in DNS across colony locations indicated that local factors, such as predation pressure, may also drive significant variation in Aleutian tern productivity. These findings suggest that a combination of local factors and climate change may be important drivers of the >90% decline in Alaska's breeding population of Aleutian terns.
","language":"English","publisher":"The Wildlife Society","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.22732","usgsCitation":"Tengeres, J., Dugger, K., Corcoran, R., and Lyons, D.E., 2025, Factors influencing daily nest survival rates of Aleutian terns in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 89, no. 4, e22732, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22732.","productDescription":"e22732, 17 p.","ipdsId":"IP-166207","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":486526,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","otherGeospatial":"Kodiak Archipelago","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -153.72408205000391,\n 57.9173741239446\n ],\n [\n -153.72408205000391,\n 57.32202812052077\n ],\n [\n -151.9053609383034,\n 57.32202812052077\n ],\n [\n -151.9053609383034,\n 57.9173741239446\n ],\n [\n -153.72408205000391,\n 57.9173741239446\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"89","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Tengeres, Jill E.","contributorId":355844,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Tengeres","given":"Jill E.","affiliations":[{"id":6680,"text":"Oregon State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938259,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Dugger, Katie M. 0000-0002-4148-246X cdugger@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4148-246X","contributorId":4399,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dugger","given":"Katie","email":"cdugger@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":938260,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Corcoran, Robin M.","contributorId":355845,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Corcoran","given":"Robin M.","affiliations":[{"id":84844,"text":"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938261,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Lyons, Donald E.","contributorId":204663,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Lyons","given":"Donald","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":13016,"text":"Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":938262,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70268437,"text":"70268437 - 2025 - Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-06-25T14:47:04.627818","indexId":"70268437","displayToPublicDate":"2025-04-29T07:41:32","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1936,"text":"ICES Journal of Marine Science","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness","docAbstract":"The Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions.
","language":"English","publisher":"Oxford University Press","doi":"10.1093/icesjms/fsaf056","usgsCitation":"West, C., McClenachan, L., Barbeaux, S.J., Spies, I.B., Addison, J.A., Anderson, B., Hofman, C.A., Reedy, K., Smith, E., Etnier, M., Helser, T.E., and Finney, B., 2025, Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness: ICES Journal of Marine Science, v. 82, no. 4, fsaf056, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf056.","productDescription":"fsaf056, 17 p.","ipdsId":"IP-170032","costCenters":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":491443,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf056","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":491279,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Russia, United States","state":"Alaska","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -203.937437508192,\n 54.954559063654074\n ],\n [\n -203.937437508192,\n 50.326282088235786\n ],\n [\n -148.52655859208141,\n 50.326282088235786\n ],\n [\n -148.52655859208141,\n 54.954559063654074\n ],\n [\n -203.937437508192,\n 54.954559063654074\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"82","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"West, Catherine F. 0000-0001-5177-9235","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5177-9235","contributorId":345839,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"West","given":"Catherine F.","affiliations":[{"id":13570,"text":"Boston University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":941291,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"McClenachan, Loren","contributorId":260606,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McClenachan","given":"Loren","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":51887,"text":"Colby College","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":941292,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Barbeaux, Steven J.","contributorId":256680,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Barbeaux","given":"Steven","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":34572,"text":"NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":941293,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Spies, Ingrid B.","contributorId":256688,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Spies","given":"Ingrid","email":"","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":941294,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Addison, Jason A. 0000-0003-2416-9743 jaddison@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2416-9743","contributorId":4192,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Addison","given":"Jason","email":"jaddison@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":617,"text":"Volcano Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":941295,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Anderson, Bruce T. 0000-0001-7006-5967","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7006-5967","contributorId":345835,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Anderson","given":"Bruce T.","affiliations":[{"id":13570,"text":"Boston University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":941296,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Hofman, Courtney A.","contributorId":127441,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hofman","given":"Courtney","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":6997,"text":"Department of Anthropology, Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History (NMNH)","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":941297,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Reedy, Katherine L.","contributorId":345838,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Reedy","given":"Katherine L.","affiliations":[{"id":38154,"text":"Idaho State University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":941298,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Smith, Emma A. 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This paper offers a comprehensive review of gas hydrate-related research initiatives and production testing activities, including those in the Alaska North Slope (USA), Mackenzie Delta (Canada), Gulf of America (USA), South China Sea (PRC), Nankai Trough (Japan), Bay of Bengal (India), and Black Sea (Turkey).
Recent studies have demonstrated successful gas production from hydrates found in sand-rich sediments using existing conventional technologies, particularly depressurization techniques. This review highlights the production trials conducted in Alaska, Canada, China, and Japan, providing insight into gas hydrate production feasibility. In addition, the implications of the completed production trials are reviewed relative to their energy planning considerations. This review also emphasizes research opportunities for technological advancements to effectively utilize the substantial volumes of gas stored in gas hydrates across various global geological settings. This compilation underscores the critical role that gas hydrates could play in meeting future energy demands.
","conferenceTitle":"Offshore Technology Conference","conferenceDate":"May 5-8, 2025","conferenceLocation":"Houston, TX","language":"English","publisher":"OnePetro","doi":"10.4043/35912-MS","usgsCitation":"Collett, T., 2025, International gas hydrate research and development, Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, TX, May 5-8, 2025, 25 p., https://doi.org/10.4043/35912-MS.","productDescription":"25 p.","ipdsId":"IP-174405","costCenters":[{"id":164,"text":"Central Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":485808,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Collett, Timothy 0000-0002-7598-4708","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7598-4708","contributorId":220812,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Collett","given":"Timothy","affiliations":[{"id":164,"text":"Central Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":936801,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70266408,"text":"70266408 - 2025 - Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-05-06T14:24:28.816171","indexId":"70266408","displayToPublicDate":"2025-04-28T09:18:21","publicationYear":"2025","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2982,"text":"PNAS","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise","docAbstract":"Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km2 (low), 160 km2 (medium), or 300 km2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km2 (low), 240 km2 (medium), or 370 km2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.
","language":"English","publisher":"National Academy of Sciences of the United States","doi":"10.1073/pnas.2424659122","usgsCitation":"Dura, T., Chilton, W., Small, D., Garner, A., Hawkes, A.D., Melgar, D., Engelhart, S.E., Staisch, L.M., Witter, R., Nelson, A., Kelsey, H., Allan, J., Bruce, D.S., DePaolis, J., Priddy, M., Briggs, R.W., Weiss, R., La Selle, S., Willis, M.J., and Horton, B.P., 2025, Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise: PNAS, v. 122, no. 18, e2424659122, 9 p., https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2424659122.","productDescription":"e2424659122, 9 p.","ipdsId":"IP-176650","costCenters":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science 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