The Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3) provides data and describes the methodology used in creating the global database of moderate- to large-size dune fields on Mars. The database is being released in a series of U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports. The first report (Hayward and others, 2007) included dune fields from lat 65° N. to 65° S. (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1158/). The second report (Hayward and others, 2010) included dune fields from lat 60° N. to 90° N. (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1170/). This report encompasses ~75,000 km2 of mapped dune fields from lat 60° to 90° S. The dune fields included in this global database were initially located using Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) Infrared (IR) images. In the previous two reports, some dune fields may have been unintentionally excluded for two reasons: (1) incomplete THEMIS IR (daytime) coverage may have caused us to exclude some moderate- to large-size dune fields or (2) resolution of THEMIS IR coverage (100 m/pixel) certainly caused us to exclude smaller dune fields. In this report, mapping is more complete. The Arizona State University THEMIS daytime IR mosaic provided complete IR coverage, and it is unlikely that we missed any large dune fields in the South Pole (SP) region. In addition, the increased availability of higher resolution images resulted in the inclusion of more small (~1 km2) sand dune fields and sand patches. To maintain consistency with the previous releases, we have identified the sand features that would not have been included in earlier releases. While the moderate to large dune fields in MGD3 are likely to constitute the largest compilation of sediment on the planet, we acknowledge that our database excludes numerous small dune fields and some moderate to large dune fields as well. Please note that the absence of mapped dune fields does not mean that dune fields do not exist and is not intended to imply a lack of saltating sand in other areas. Where availability and quality of THEMIS visible (VIS), Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) narrow angle, Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera, or Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images allowed, we classified dunes and included some dune slipface measurements, which were derived from gross dune morphology and represent the approximate prevailing wind direction at the last time of significant dune modification. It was beyond the scope of this report to look at the detail needed to discern subtle dune modification. It was also beyond the scope of this report to measure all slipfaces. We attempted to include enough slipface measurements to represent the general circulation (as implied by gross dune morphology) and to give a sense of the complex nature of aeolian activity on Mars. The absence of slipface measurements in a given direction should not be taken as evidence that winds in that direction did not occur. When a dune field was located within a crater, the azimuth from crater centroid to dune field centroid was calculated, as another possible indicator of wind direction. Output from a general circulation model is also included. In addition to polygons locating dune fields, the database includes ~700 of the THEMIS VIS and MOC images that were used to build the database.
","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/ofr20121259","usgsCitation":"Hayward, R., Fenton, L., Titus, T., Colaprete, A., and Christensen, P.R., 2012, Mars global digital dune database: MC-30: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012-1259, Pamphlet: 8 p.; Map: 1 p.; ReadMe; Metadata; Data; GIS, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121259.","productDescription":"Pamphlet: 8 p.; Map: 1 p.; ReadMe; Metadata; Data; GIS","numberOfPages":"8","onlineOnly":"Y","additionalOnlineFiles":"Y","ipdsId":"IP-039013","costCenters":[{"id":131,"text":"Astrogeology Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":265025,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/ofr_2012_1259.gif"},{"id":265040,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1259/"}],"otherGeospatial":"Mars","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50e5d015e4b0a4aa5bb0af5a","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hayward, R.K.","contributorId":31885,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hayward","given":"R.K.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471172,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Fenton, L.K.","contributorId":102189,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fenton","given":"L.K.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471173,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Titus, T.N.","contributorId":102615,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Titus","given":"T.N.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471174,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Colaprete, A.","contributorId":26047,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Colaprete","given":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471171,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Christensen, P. R.","contributorId":7819,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Christensen","given":"P.","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471170,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70042282,"text":"70042282 - 2012 - Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-01-17T14:31:18","indexId":"70042282","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-02T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2980,"text":"PLoS ONE","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?","docAbstract":"Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against those risks. The analysis framework presented here will be useful for other species exhibiting heterogeneity by detection method.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"PLoS ONE","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Public Library of Science","publisherLocation":"San Francisco, CA","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0049410","usgsCitation":"Graves, T.A., Royle, J., Kendall, K.C., Beier, P., Stetz, J.B., and Macleod, A., 2012, Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?: PLoS ONE, v. 7, no. 12, 9 p.; e49410, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0049410.","productDescription":"9 p.; e49410","ipdsId":"IP-042009","costCenters":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474109,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0049410","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":265018,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0049410"},{"id":265019,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"7","issue":"12","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-12-12","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50e5cfe4e4b0a4aa5bb0ae8c","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Graves, Tabitha A. 0000-0001-5145-2400 tgraves@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5145-2400","contributorId":5898,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Graves","given":"Tabitha","email":"tgraves@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471191,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Royle, J. Andrew 0000-0003-3135-2167","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3135-2167","contributorId":80808,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Royle","given":"J. Andrew","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471194,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Kendall, Katherine C. 0000-0002-4831-2287 kkendall@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4831-2287","contributorId":3081,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kendall","given":"Katherine","email":"kkendall@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471190,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Beier, Paul","contributorId":100708,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Beier","given":"Paul","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471195,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Stetz, Jeffrey B.","contributorId":15493,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stetz","given":"Jeffrey","email":"","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471192,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Macleod, Amy C.","contributorId":65739,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Macleod","given":"Amy C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471193,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70003712,"text":"70003712 - 2012 - Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-25T16:42:01","indexId":"70003712","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T16:35:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1321,"text":"Conservation Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience","docAbstract":"The cross-scale resilience model states that ecological resilience is generated in part from the distribution of functions within and across scales in a system. Resilience is a measure of a system's ability to remain organized around a particular set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures, known as a regime. We define scale as the geographic extent over which a process operates and the frequency with which a process occurs. Species can be categorized into functional groups that are a link between ecosystem processes and structures and ecological resilience. We applied the cross-scale resilience model to avian species in a grassland ecosystem. A species’ morphology is shaped in part by its interaction with ecological structure and pattern, so animal body mass reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. We used the log-transformed rank-ordered body masses of breeding birds associated with grasslands to identify aggregations and discontinuities in the distribution of those body masses. We assessed cross-scale resilience on the basis of 3 metrics: overall number of functional groups, number of functional groups within an aggregation, and the redundancy of functional groups across aggregations. We assessed how the loss of threatened species would affect cross-scale resilience by removing threatened species from the data set and recalculating values of the 3 metrics. We also determined whether more function was retained than expected after the loss of threatened species by comparing observed loss with simulated random loss in a Monte Carlo process. The observed distribution of function compared with the random simulated loss of function indicated that more functionality in the observed data set was retained than expected. On the basis of our results, we believe an ecosystem with a full complement of species can sustain considerable species losses without affecting the distribution of functions within and across aggregations, although ecological resilience is reduced. We propose that the mechanisms responsible for shaping discontinuous distributions of body mass and the nonrandom distribution of functions may also shape species losses such that local extinctions will be nonrandom with respect to the retention and distribution of functions and that the distribution of function within and across aggregations will be conserved despite extinctions.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Conservation Biology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01822.x","usgsCitation":"Sundstrom, S.M., Allen, C.R., and Barichievy, C., 2012, Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience: Conservation Biology, v. 26, no. 2, p. 305-314, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01822.x.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"305","endPage":"314","ipdsId":"IP-026575","costCenters":[{"id":463,"text":"Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":275418,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":275417,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01822.x"}],"country":"United States","volume":"26","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-03-23","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51f25423e4b0279fe2e1c032","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Sundstrom, Shana M.","contributorId":7159,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Sundstrom","given":"Shana","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":348432,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Allen, Craig R. 0000-0001-8655-8272 allencr@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8655-8272","contributorId":1979,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Allen","given":"Craig","email":"allencr@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":198,"text":"Coop Res Unit Atlanta","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":348431,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Barichievy, Chris","contributorId":17119,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barichievy","given":"Chris","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":348433,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70046871,"text":"70046871 - 2012 - Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2019-07-17T16:27:51","indexId":"70046871","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T16:19:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1807,"text":"Geophysical Research Letters","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field","docAbstract":"Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 earthquakes based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield earthquakes do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent models fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Geophysical Research Letters","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","doi":"10.1029/2012GL052913","usgsCitation":"Tormann, T., Wiemer, S., and Hardebeck, J.L., 2012, Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 39, no. 18, L18310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052913.","productDescription":"L18310","ipdsId":"IP-034200","costCenters":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":274900,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":274706,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052913"}],"volume":"39","issue":"18","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-09-29","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51dfd3e2e4b0d332bf22f37d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Tormann, Thessa","contributorId":13883,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Tormann","given":"Thessa","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480511,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wiemer, Stefan","contributorId":81566,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wiemer","given":"Stefan","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480512,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Hardebeck, Jeanne L. 0000-0002-6737-7780 jhardebeck@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-7780","contributorId":841,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hardebeck","given":"Jeanne","email":"jhardebeck@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":480510,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70046946,"text":"70046946 - 2012 - Northwestern salamanders Ambystoma gracile in mountain lakes: record oviposition depths among salamanders","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-18T14:56:03","indexId":"70046946","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T14:51:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1898,"text":"Herpetological Review","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Northwestern salamanders Ambystoma gracile in mountain lakes: record oviposition depths among salamanders","docAbstract":"Oviposition timing, behaviors, and microhabitats of ambystomatid salamanders vary considerably (Egan and Paton 2004; Figiel and Semlitsch 1995; Howard and Wallace 1985; Mac-Cracken 2007). Regardless of species, however, females typically oviposit using sites conducive to embryo development and survival. For example, the results of an experiment by Figiel and Semlitsch (1995) on Ambystoma opacum (Marbled Salamander) oviposition indicated that females actively selected sites that were under grass clumps in wet versus dry treatments, and surmised that environmental conditions such as humidity, moisture, and temperature contributed to their results. Other factors associated with ambystomatid oviposition and embryo survival include water temperature (Anderson 1972; Brown 1976), dissolved oxygen concentration (Petranka et al. 1982; Sacerdote and King 2009), oviposition depth (Dougherty et al. 2005; Egan and Paton 2004), and oviposition attachment structures such as woody vegetation (McCracken 2007; Nussbaum et al. 1983). Resetarits (1996), in creating a model of oviposition site selection for anuran amphibians, hypothesized that oviparous organisms were also capable of modifying oviposition behavior and site selection to accommodate varying habitat conditions and to minimize potential negative effects of environmental stressors. Kats and Sih (1992), investigating the oviposition of Ambystoma barbouri (Streamside Salamander) in pools of a Kentucky stream, found that females preferred pools without predatory Lepomis cyanellus (Green Sunfish), and that the number of egg masses present in a pool historically containing fish increased significantly the year after fish had been extirpated from the pool. Palen et al. (2005) determined that Ambystoma gracile (Northwestern Salamander) and Ambystoma macrodactylum (Longtoed Salamander) eggs were deposited either at increased depth or in full shaded habitats, respectively, as water transperancy to UV-B radiation increased.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Herpetological Review","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"SSAR","usgsCitation":"Hoffman, R., Pearl, C., Larson, G., and Samora, B., 2012, Northwestern salamanders Ambystoma gracile in mountain lakes: record oviposition depths among salamanders: Herpetological Review, v. 43, no. 4, p. 553-556.","productDescription":"4 p.","startPage":"553","endPage":"556","ipdsId":"IP-037373","costCenters":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":275152,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"43","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51e90e61e4b0e157e9e86f15","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hoffman, R. Jr.","contributorId":63290,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hoffman","given":"R.","suffix":"Jr.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480664,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Pearl, C.A. 0000-0003-2943-7321","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2943-7321","contributorId":30732,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pearl","given":"C.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480663,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Larson, G.L.","contributorId":103021,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Larson","given":"G.L.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480665,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Samora, B.","contributorId":10012,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Samora","given":"B.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480662,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70039016,"text":"70039016 - 2012 - Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2014-02-25T15:49:17","indexId":"70039016","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T14:04:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2032,"text":"International Journal of Climatology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices","docAbstract":"Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"International Journal of Climatology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Royal Meteorological Society","doi":"10.1002/joc.3625","usgsCitation":"Schwartz, M., Ault, T., and Betancourt, J.L., 2012, Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices: International Journal of Climatology, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3625.","productDescription":"6 p.","ipdsId":"IP-039075","costCenters":[{"id":147,"text":"Branch of Regional Research-Water Resources","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":282783,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":282778,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3625"}],"country":"United States","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -124.8,24.5 ], [ -124.8,49.38333 ], [ -66.95,49.38333 ], [ -66.95,24.5 ], [ -124.8,24.5 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-11-16","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"53cd73d8e4b0b290851092da","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Schwartz, Mark D.","contributorId":11092,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schwartz","given":"Mark D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":465435,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Ault, Toby R.","contributorId":48852,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ault","given":"Toby R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":465436,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Betancourt, Julio L. 0000-0002-7165-0743 jlbetanc@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-0743","contributorId":3376,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Betancourt","given":"Julio","email":"jlbetanc@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":554,"text":"Science and Decisions Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":436,"text":"National Research Program - Eastern Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":465434,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70045100,"text":"70045100 - 2012 - Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-30T12:54:41","indexId":"70045100","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T12:49:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":3,"text":"Organization Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":204,"text":"PEER Report","active":false,"publicationSubtype":{"id":3}},"seriesNumber":"2012/01","title":"Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions","docAbstract":"Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra, including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and non-structural systems can have damping ratios other than 5%, depending on various factors such as structural types, construction materials, level of ground motion excitations, among others. This report provides the findings of a comprehensive study to develop a new model for a Damping Scaling Factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE to spectral ordinates with damping ratios between 0.5 to 30%. Using the updated, 2011 version of the NGA database of ground motions recorded in worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (i.e., the NGA-West2 database), dependencies of the DSF on variables including damping ratio, spectral period, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, duration, and local site conditions are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions are found to have less significant influence on DSF and are not included in the model. The proposed model for DSF provides functional forms for the median value and the logarithmic standard deviation of DSF. This model is heteroscedastic, where the variance is a function of the damping ratio. Damping Scaling Factor models are developed for the “average” horizontal ground motion components, i.e., RotD50 and GMRotI50, as well as the vertical component of ground motion.","language":"English","publisher":"Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center","publisherLocation":"Berkeley, CA","usgsCitation":"Rezaeian, S., Bozorgnia, Y., Idriss, I., Campbell, K., Abrahamson, N., and Silva, W., 2012, Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: PEER Report 2012/01, xiv, 142 p.","productDescription":"xiv, 142 p.","numberOfPages":"168","ipdsId":"IP-035624","costCenters":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":275582,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/70045100.PNG"},{"id":275580,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://peer.berkeley.edu/publications/peer_reports/reports_2012/webPEER-2012-01-REZAEIAN.pdf"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51f8e065e4b0cecbe8fa98b6","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Rezaeian, Sanaz 0000-0001-7589-7893 srezaeian@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7589-7893","contributorId":4395,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rezaeian","given":"Sanaz","email":"srezaeian@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":476789,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Bozorgnia, Yousef","contributorId":40101,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Bozorgnia","given":"Yousef","affiliations":[{"id":6643,"text":"University of California - Berkeley","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":476790,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Idriss, I.M.","contributorId":105412,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Idriss","given":"I.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476794,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Campbell, Kenneth","contributorId":86246,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Campbell","given":"Kenneth","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476793,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Abrahamson, Norman","contributorId":66990,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Abrahamson","given":"Norman","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476792,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Silva, Walter","contributorId":50429,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Silva","given":"Walter","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476791,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70047256,"text":"70047256 - 2012 - Associations of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages with environmental variables in the upper Clear Creek watershed, California","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-27T12:36:37","indexId":"70047256","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T12:30:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3746,"text":"Western North American Naturalist","onlineIssn":"1944-8341","printIssn":"1527-0904","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Associations of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages with environmental variables in the upper Clear Creek watershed, California","docAbstract":"Benthic macroinvertebrates are integral components of stream ecosystems and are often used to assess the ecological integrity of streams. We sampled streams in the upper Clear Creek drainage in the Klamath—Siskiyou Ecoregion of northwestern California in fall 2004 (17 sites) and 2005 (original 17 plus 4 new sites) with the objectives of documenting the benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages supported by the streams in the area, determining how those assemblages respond to environmental variables, assessing the biological condition of the streams using a benthic index of biotic integrity (IBI), and understanding the assemblages in the context of biodiversity of the ecoregion. We collected both reach-wide (RW) and targeted-riffle (TR) macroinvertebrate samples at each site. The macroinvertebrate assemblages were diverse, with over 150 genera collected for each sampling protocol. The macroinvertebrate assemblages appeared to be most responsive to a general habitat gradient based on stream size, gradient, flow, and dominance of riffles. A second important habitat gradient was based on elevation and dominance of riffles. A gradient in water quality based on concentrations of dissolved ions and metals was also important. Models based on these 3 gradients had Spearman's rank correlations with macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition of 0.60 and 0.50 for the TR and RW samples, respectively. The majority (>50%) of the sites were in good or very good biological condition based on IBI scores. The diversity of macroinvertebrate assemblages is associated with the diversity of habitats available in the Klamath—Siskiyou Ecoregion. Maintaining the aquatic habitats in good condition is important in itself but is also vital to maintaining biodiversity in this diverse and unique ecoregion.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Western North American Naturalist","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Monte L. Bean Life Science Museum, Brigham Young University","doi":"10.3398/064.072.0406","usgsCitation":"Brown, L.R., May, J., and Wulff, M., 2012, Associations of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages with environmental variables in the upper Clear Creek watershed, California: Western North American Naturalist, v. 72, no. 4, p. 473-494, https://doi.org/10.3398/064.072.0406.","productDescription":"22 p.","startPage":"473","endPage":"494","ipdsId":"IP-034234","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488133,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/wnan/vol72/iss4/6","text":"External Repository"},{"id":275492,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":275480,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3398/064.072.0406"},{"id":275479,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3398/064.072.0406"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"Upper Clear Creek Watershed","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -124.41,32.53 ], [ -124.41,42.0 ], [ -114.13,42.0 ], [ -114.13,32.53 ], [ -124.41,32.53 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"72","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51f4ebe2e4b0838938b2803d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Brown, Larry R. 0000-0001-6702-4531 lrbrown@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6702-4531","contributorId":1717,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Brown","given":"Larry","email":"lrbrown@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":481534,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"May, Jason T. 0000-0002-5699-2112","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5699-2112","contributorId":14791,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"May","given":"Jason T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":481535,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wulff, Marissa 0000-0003-0121-9066","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0121-9066","contributorId":88633,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wulff","given":"Marissa","affiliations":[{"id":113,"text":"Alaska Regional Director's Office","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":481536,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70046841,"text":"70046841 - 2012 - Step-changes in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Gulf of Maine, as documented by the GNATS time series","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-15T11:58:10","indexId":"70046841","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T11:54:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2663,"text":"Marine Ecology Progress Series","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Step-changes in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Gulf of Maine, as documented by the GNATS time series","docAbstract":"We identify step-changes in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Gulf of Maine (GoM) using the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series (GNATS), a series of oceanographic measurements obtained between September 1998 and December 2010 along a transect in the GoM running from Portland, ME, to Yarmouth, NS. GNATS sampled a period of extremes in precipitation and river discharge (4 of the 8 wettest years of the last century occurred between 2005 and 2010). Coincident with increased precipitation, we observed the following shifts: (1) decreased salinity and density within the surface waters of the western GoM; (2) both reduced temperature and vertical temperature gradients in the upper 50 m; (3) increased colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations and particle scattering in the western GoM; (4) increased concentrations of nitrate and phosphate across all but the eastern GoM; (5) increased silicate, particularly in the western GoM, with a sharp increase in the ratio of silicate to dissolved inorganic nitrogen; (6) sharply decreased carbon fixation by phytoplankton; (7) moderately decreased chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) in the central GoM and (8) decreased POC- and PIC-specific growth rates. Gulf-wide anomaly analyses suggest that (1) the surface density changes were predominantly driven by temperature, (2) dissolved nutrients, as well as POC/PON, varied in Redfield ratios and (3) anomalies for salinity, density, CDOM, particle backscattering and silicate were significantly correlated with river discharge. Precipitation and river discharge appear to be playing a critical role in controlling the long-term productivity of the Gulf of Maine by supplying CDOM and detrital material, which ultimately competes with phytoplankton for light absorption.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Marine Ecology Progress Series","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Inter-Research","doi":"10.3354/meps09555","usgsCitation":"Balch, W.M., Drapeau, D., Bowler, B., and Huntington, T.G., 2012, Step-changes in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Gulf of Maine, as documented by the GNATS time series: Marine Ecology Progress Series, v. 450, p. 11-35, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09555.","productDescription":"25 p.","startPage":"11","endPage":"35","ipdsId":"IP-033967","costCenters":[{"id":371,"text":"Maine Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474111,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09555","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":274978,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":274977,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps09555"}],"country":"United States","state":"Maine","otherGeospatial":"Gulf Of Maine","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -71.1074,41.526 ], [ -71.1074,44.8345 ], [ -65.6683,44.8345 ], [ -65.6683,41.526 ], [ -71.1074,41.526 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"450","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51e519efe4b069f8d27ccb3a","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Balch, William M.","contributorId":54095,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Balch","given":"William","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480439,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Drapeau, D.T.","contributorId":64136,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Drapeau","given":"D.T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480440,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Bowler, B.C.","contributorId":45986,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bowler","given":"B.C.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480438,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Huntington, Thomas G. 0000-0002-9427-3530 thunting@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9427-3530","contributorId":1884,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Huntington","given":"Thomas","email":"thunting@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":466,"text":"New England Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":371,"text":"Maine Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":480437,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70046806,"text":"70046806 - 2012 - A remote-sensing, GIS-based approach to identify, characterize, and model spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon in a sub-arctic, glacially fed river","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-09T11:25:25","indexId":"70046806","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T11:15:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3624,"text":"Transactions of the American Fisheries Society","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A remote-sensing, GIS-based approach to identify, characterize, and model spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon in a sub-arctic, glacially fed river","docAbstract":"At northern limits of a species’ distribution, fish habitat requirements are often linked to thermal preferences, and the presence of overwintering habitat. However, logistical challenges and hydrologic processes typical of glacial systems could compromize the identification of these habitats, particularly in large river environments. Our goal was to identify and characterize spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and model habitat selection from spatial distributions of tagged individuals in the Tanana River, Alaska using an approach that combined ground surveys with remote sensing. Models included braiding, sinuosity, ice-free water surface area (indicating groundwater influence), and persistent ice-free water (i.e., consistent presence of ice-free water for a 12-year period according to satellite imagery). Candidate models containing persistent ice-free water were selected as most likely, highlighting the utility of remote sensing for monitoring and identifying salmon habitat in remote areas. A combination of ground and remote surveys revealed spatial and temporal thermal characteristics of these habitats that could have strong biological implications. Persistent ice-free sites identified using synthetic aperture radar appear to serve as core areas for spawning fall chum salmon, and the importance of stability through time suggests a legacy of successful reproductive effort for this homing species. These features would not be captured with a one-visit traditional survey but rather required remote-sensing monitoring of the sites through time.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Transactions of the American Fisheries Society","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Taylor & Francis","doi":"10.1080/00028487.2012.692348","usgsCitation":"Wirth, L., Rosenberger, A., Prakash, A., Gens, R., Margraf, F.J., and Hamazaki, T., 2012, A remote-sensing, GIS-based approach to identify, characterize, and model spawning habitat for fall-run chum salmon in a sub-arctic, glacially fed river: Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, v. 141, no. 5, p. 1349-1363, https://doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2012.692348.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"1349","endPage":"1363","ipdsId":"IP-039186","costCenters":[{"id":108,"text":"Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":274752,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":274749,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2012.692348"}],"volume":"141","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-08-30","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51dd30e4e4b0f72b44719c3d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wirth, Lisa","contributorId":24671,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wirth","given":"Lisa","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480306,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Rosenberger, Amanda","contributorId":45609,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rosenberger","given":"Amanda","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480309,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Prakash, Anupma","contributorId":41101,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Prakash","given":"Anupma","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480307,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Gens, Rudiger","contributorId":54490,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gens","given":"Rudiger","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480310,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Margraf, F. Joseph jmargraf@usgs.gov","contributorId":257,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Margraf","given":"F.","email":"jmargraf@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"Joseph","affiliations":[{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":480305,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Hamazaki, Toshihide","contributorId":41723,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hamazaki","given":"Toshihide","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480308,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70043254,"text":"70043254 - 2012 - Predator evasion by white-tailed deer fawns","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-06-18T14:14:00.192983","indexId":"70043254","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T11:08:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":770,"text":"Animal Behaviour","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Predator evasion by white-tailed deer fawns","docAbstract":"Despite their importance for understanding predator–prey interactions, factors that affect predator evasion behaviours of offspring of large ungulates are poorly understood. Our objective was to characterize the influence of selection and availability of escape cover and maternal presence on predator evasion by white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, fawns in the northern Great Plains, U.S.A. We observed 45 coyote, Canis latrans, chases of fawns, and we participated in 83 human chases of fawns during 2007–2009, of which, 19 and 42 chases, respectively, ended with capture of the fawn. Evasive techniques used by fawns were similar for human and coyote chases. Likelihood of a white-tailed deer fawn escaping capture, however, was influenced by deer group size and a number of antipredator behaviours, including aggressive defence by females, initial habitat and selection of escape cover, all of which were modified by the presence of parturient females. At the initiation of a chase, fawns in grasslands were more likely to escape, whereas fawns in forested cover, cultivated land or wheat were more likely to be captured by a coyote or human. Fawns fleeing to wetlands and grasslands also were less likely to be captured compared with those choosing forested cover, wheat and cultivated land. Increased probability of capture was associated with greater distance to wetland and grassland habitats and decreased distance to wheat. Use of wetland habitat as a successful antipredator strategy highlights the need for a greater understanding of the importance of habitat complexity in predator avoidance.","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.anbehav.2012.04.005","usgsCitation":"Grovenburg, T.W., Monteith, K.L., Klaver, R.W., and Jenks, J., 2012, Predator evasion by white-tailed deer fawns: Animal Behaviour, v. 84, no. 1, p. 59-65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2012.04.005.","productDescription":"7 p.","startPage":"59","endPage":"65","ipdsId":"IP-031108","costCenters":[{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474117,"rank":2,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1211&context=nrem_pubs","text":"External Repository"},{"id":275183,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"84","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51ea8705e4b03397884d39a5","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Grovenburg, Troy W.","contributorId":57712,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Grovenburg","given":"Troy","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":473245,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Monteith, Kevin L.","contributorId":83400,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Monteith","given":"Kevin","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":473246,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Klaver, Robert W. 0000-0002-3263-9701 bklaver@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3263-9701","contributorId":3285,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Klaver","given":"Robert","email":"bklaver@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":222,"text":"Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":473243,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Jenks, Jonathan A.","contributorId":51591,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Jenks","given":"Jonathan A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":473244,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70046822,"text":"70046822 - 2012 - Gravity fluctuations induced by magma convection at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2019-05-30T10:11:30","indexId":"70046822","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T10:46:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1796,"text":"Geology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Gravity fluctuations induced by magma convection at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i","docAbstract":"Convection in magma chambers is thought to play a key role in the activity of persistently active volcanoes, but has only been inferred indirectly from geochemical observations or simulated numerically. Continuous microgravity measurements, which track changes in subsurface mass distribution over time, provide a potential method for characterizing convection in magma reservoirs. We recorded gravity oscillations with a period of ~150 s at two continuous gravity stations at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. The oscillations are not related to inertial accelerations caused by seismic activity, but instead indicate variations in subsurface mass. Source modeling suggests that the oscillations are caused by density inversions in a magma reservoir located ~1 km beneath the east margin of Halema‘uma‘u Crater in Kīlauea Caldera—a location of known magma storage.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Geology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Geological Society of America","doi":"10.1130/G33060.1","usgsCitation":"Carbone, D., and Poland, M., 2012, Gravity fluctuations induced by magma convection at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i: Geology, v. 40, no. 9, p. 803-806, https://doi.org/10.1130/G33060.1.","productDescription":"4 p.","startPage":"803","endPage":"806","ipdsId":"IP-033975","costCenters":[{"id":336,"text":"Hawaiian Volcano Observatory","active":false,"usgs":true},{"id":615,"text":"Volcano Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":275043,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":275042,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G33060.1"}],"country":"United States","state":"Hawai'i","otherGeospatial":"Kilauea Volcano","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -155.7984,19.0584 ], [ -155.7984,19.5476 ], [ -155.0163,19.5476 ], [ -155.0163,19.0584 ], [ -155.7984,19.0584 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"40","issue":"9","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51e66b66e4b017be1ba3477f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Carbone, Daniele","contributorId":38458,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Carbone","given":"Daniele","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480363,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Poland, Michael P. 0000-0001-5240-6123 mpoland@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5240-6123","contributorId":635,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Poland","given":"Michael P.","email":"mpoland@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":336,"text":"Hawaiian Volcano Observatory","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":480362,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70042683,"text":"70042683 - 2012 - On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-09T10:45:54","indexId":"70042683","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T10:38:46","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations","docAbstract":"National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts.\n\nSeveral recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and the large swell event from distant Hurricane Bill on 22 August. The coastal impacts associated with Nor'Ida were due to the combined effects of surge, tide, and wave processes and led to an estimated 5.8 million dollars in damage. While the impacts from Hurricane Bill were not as severe as Nor'Ida, they were mainly associated with wave processes. Thus, this event exemplifies the importance of incorporating waves into the total water level and coastal impact prediction process. These examples set the stage for potential future applications including adaption to the more complex topography along the New England coast.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 22-26, 2012","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"language":"English","publisher":"American Meteorological Society","usgsCitation":"Mignone, A., Stockdon, H., Willis, M., Cannon, J., and Thompson, R., 2012, On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations, in 92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 22-26, 2012, 9 p.","productDescription":"9 p.","ipdsId":"IP-034554","costCenters":[{"id":574,"text":"St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":274744,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":274743,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://ams.confex.com/ams/92Annual/webprogram/Paper196615.html"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51dd30eee4b0f72b44719cb2","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Mignone, Anthony","contributorId":77825,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mignone","given":"Anthony","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472050,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Stockdon, H.","contributorId":71351,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stockdon","given":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472049,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Willis, M.","contributorId":82910,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Willis","given":"M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472051,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Cannon, J.W.","contributorId":39676,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cannon","given":"J.W.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472048,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Thompson, R.","contributorId":103444,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Thompson","given":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":472052,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70041078,"text":"70041078 - 2012 - Stable isotopes identify dietary changes associated with beak deformities in Black-Capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-08-21T15:08:44","indexId":"70041078","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T10:29:43","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3544,"text":"The Auk","onlineIssn":"1938-4254","printIssn":"0004-8038","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Stable isotopes identify dietary changes associated with beak deformities in Black-Capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus)","docAbstract":"A large number of beak deformities of unknown etiology have recently been reported in Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and other resident avian species in Alaska. We investigated the potential association between diet and beak deformities. We analyzed carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes in whole blood of Black-capped Chickadees captured at three semiurban sites in south-central Alaska. For dietary analysis, we included natural foods (arthropods, seeds, and berries) and anthropogenic items commonly provided in bird feeders (sunflower seeds, peanut butter, and suet). Blood samples from individuals with beak deformities exhibited lower δ15N values and more variable δ13C values than birds with normal beaks. Isotopic values of blood also differed by location for both carbon and nitrogen, but we did not detect a difference in natural dietary items across the three sites. Contributions of individual diet items differed between birds with and without beak deformities, a pattern that likely reflected reduced function of the beak. Affected birds generally consumed fewer arthropods and sunflower seeds and more peanut butter and natural seeds and berries. Although some individuals with beak deformities relied heavily on feeder foods, we did not find evidence of an anthropogenic food source shared by all affected birds. In addition, dietary differences were most pronounced for moderately to severely affected birds, which suggests that these differences are more likely to be a consequence than a cause of deformities.","language":"English","publisher":"American Ornithological Society","doi":"10.1525/auk.2012.12037","usgsCitation":"Van Hemert, C.R., Handel, C.M., and O’Brien, D.M., 2012, Stable isotopes identify dietary changes associated with beak deformities in Black-Capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus): The Auk, v. 129, no. 3, p. 460-466, https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12037.","productDescription":"7 p.","startPage":"460","endPage":"466","ipdsId":"IP-038991","costCenters":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474118,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2012.12037","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":282739,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ 172.45,51.21 ], [ 172.45,71.39 ], [ -129.99,71.39 ], [ -129.99,51.21 ], [ 172.45,51.21 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"129","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"53cd73e2e4b0b29085109365","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Van Hemert, Caroline R. 0000-0002-6858-7165 cvanhemert@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6858-7165","contributorId":3592,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Van Hemert","given":"Caroline","email":"cvanhemert@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":469363,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Handel, Colleen M. 0000-0002-0267-7408 cmhandel@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0267-7408","contributorId":3067,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Handel","given":"Colleen","email":"cmhandel@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":469361,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"O’Brien, Diane M.","contributorId":66173,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O’Brien","given":"Diane","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":469362,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70047758,"text":"70047758 - 2012 - Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-08-22T10:09:15","indexId":"70047758","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T10:06:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1551,"text":"Environmental Modelling and Software","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends","docAbstract":"A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Environmental Modelling and Software","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.04.016","usgsCitation":"Friedel, M.J., 2012, Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends: Environmental Modelling and Software, v. 37, p. 217-232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.04.016.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"217","endPage":"232","costCenters":[{"id":211,"text":"Crustal Geophysics and Geochemistry Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":276887,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":276886,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.04.016"}],"volume":"37","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"521732e3e4b043bae8d2e5d3","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Friedel, Michael J. 0000-0002-5060-3999 mfriedel@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5060-3999","contributorId":595,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Friedel","given":"Michael","email":"mfriedel@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":171,"text":"Central Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":482905,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70102819,"text":"70102819 - 2012 - Methods for simulating solute breakthrough curves in pumping groundwater wells","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-02-08T09:38:54","indexId":"70102819","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T10:05:41","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1315,"text":"Computers & Geosciences","printIssn":"0098-3004","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Methods for simulating solute breakthrough curves in pumping groundwater wells","docAbstract":"In modeling there is always a trade-off between execution time and accuracy. For gradient-based parameter estimation methods, where a simulation model is run repeatedly to populate a Jacobian (sensitivity) matrix, there exists a need for rapid simulation methods of known accuracy that can decrease execution time, and thus make the model more useful without sacrificing accuracy. Convolution-based methods can be executed rapidly for any desired input function once the residence-time distribution is known. The residence-time distribution can be calculated efficiently using particle tracking, but particle tracking can be ambiguous near a pumping well if the grid is too coarse. We present several embedded analytical expressions for improving particle tracking near a pumping well and compare them with a finely gridded finite-difference solution in terms of accuracy and CPU usage. Even though the embedded analytical approach can improve particle tracking near a well, particle methods reduce, but do not eliminate, reliance on a grid because velocity fields typically are calculated on a grid, and additional error is incurred using linear interpolation of velocity. A dilution rate can be calculated for a given grid and pumping well to determine if the grid is sufficiently refined. Embedded analytical expressions increase accuracy but add significantly to CPU usage. Structural error introduced by the numerical solution method may affect parameter estimates.","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.cageo.2012.01.011","usgsCitation":"Starn, J.J., Bagtzoglou, A., and Robbins, G.A., 2012, Methods for simulating solute breakthrough curves in pumping groundwater wells: Computers & Geosciences, v. 48, p. 244-255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2012.01.011.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"244","endPage":"255","ipdsId":"IP-029160","costCenters":[{"id":196,"text":"Connecticut Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":286685,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":286684,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2012.01.011"}],"volume":"48","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"535f786fe4b078dca33ae37d","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Starn, J. Jeffrey","contributorId":101617,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Starn","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"Jeffrey","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":493022,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.","contributorId":30146,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bagtzoglou","given":"Amvrossios C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":493020,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Robbins, Gary A.","contributorId":41743,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Robbins","given":"Gary","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":493021,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70047005,"text":"70047005 - 2012 - A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-01-05T19:05:14.72053","indexId":"70047005","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T10:03:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3731,"text":"Waterbirds","onlineIssn":"19385390","printIssn":"15244695","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia","docAbstract":"Using mark-recapture models, apparent survival was estimated from older banding and re-sighting data (1978–1983) of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) nesting on beaches and in salt marshes of coastal Virginia, USA. Oystercatchers nesting in salt marshes exhibited higher apparent survival (0.94 ±0.03) than birds nesting on beaches (0.81 ±0.06), a difference due to variation in mortality, permanent emigration, or both. Nesting on exposed barrier beaches may subject adults and young to higher risk of predation. These early estimates of adult survival for a species that is heavily monitored along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts can be used to (1) develop demographic models to determine population stability, (2) compare with estimates of adult survival from populations that have reached carrying capacity, and (3) compare with estimates of survival from other oystercatcher populations and species.","language":"English","publisher":"The Waterbird Society","doi":"10.1675/063.035.0412","usgsCitation":"Nol, E., Murphy, S.P., and Cadman, M.D., 2012, A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia: Waterbirds, v. 35, no. 4, p. 631-635, https://doi.org/10.1675/063.035.0412.","productDescription":"5 p.","startPage":"631","endPage":"635","ipdsId":"IP-039671","costCenters":[{"id":290,"text":"Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":381892,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Virginia","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -83.6754,36.5408 ], [ -83.6754,39.466 ], [ -75.2422,39.466 ], [ -75.2422,36.5408 ], [ -83.6754,36.5408 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"35","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51e519e2e4b069f8d27cca83","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Nol, Erica","contributorId":38459,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nol","given":"Erica","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480845,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Murphy, Sean P.","contributorId":50067,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Murphy","given":"Sean","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480846,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Cadman, Michael D.","contributorId":28146,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cadman","given":"Michael","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":480844,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70045927,"text":"70045927 - 2012 - Predicting the geographic distribution of a species from presence-only data subject to detection errors","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-07-23T10:01:10","indexId":"70045927","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T09:58:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1039,"text":"Biometrics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Predicting the geographic distribution of a species from presence-only data subject to detection errors","docAbstract":"Several models have been developed to predict the geographic distribution of a species by combining measurements of covariates of occurrence at locations where the species is known to be present with measurements of the same covariates at other locations where species occurrence status (presence or absence) is unknown. In the absence of species detection errors, spatial point-process models and binary-regression models for case-augmented surveys provide consistent estimators of a species’ geographic distribution without prior knowledge of species prevalence. In addition, these regression models can be modified to produce estimators of species abundance that are asymptotically equivalent to those of the spatial point-process models. However, if species presence locations are subject to detection errors, neither class of models provides a consistent estimator of covariate effects unless the covariates of species abundance are distinct and independently distributed from the covariates of species detection probability. These analytical results are illustrated using simulation studies of data sets that contain a wide range of presence-only sample sizes. Analyses of presence-only data of three avian species observed in a survey of landbirds in western Montana and northern Idaho are compared with site-occupancy analyses of detections and nondetections of these species.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Biometrics","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"The International Biometric Society","doi":"10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01779.x","usgsCitation":"Dorazio, R.M., 2012, Predicting the geographic distribution of a species from presence-only data subject to detection errors: Biometrics, v. 68, no. 4, p. 1303-1312, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01779.x.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"1303","endPage":"1312","ipdsId":"IP-030620","costCenters":[{"id":566,"text":"Southeast Ecological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":275271,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":275270,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01779.x"}],"volume":"68","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-08-31","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51efa5f5e4b0b09fbe58f1c3","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dorazio, Robert M. 0000-0003-2663-0468 bob_dorazio@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2663-0468","contributorId":1668,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dorazio","given":"Robert","email":"bob_dorazio@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":566,"text":"Southeast Ecological Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":478543,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70047464,"text":"70047464 - 2012 - Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-08-07T09:42:55","indexId":"70047464","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T09:37:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2996,"text":"Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology","printIssn":"0031-0182","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling","docAbstract":"The Lake Bosumtwi sediment record represents one of the longest and highest-resolution terrestrial records of paleoclimate change available from sub-Saharan Africa. Here we report a new sediment age model framework for the last ~ 45 cal kyr of sedimentation using a combination of high-resolution radiocarbon dating, Bayesian age-depth modeling and lamination counting. Our results highlight the practical limits of these methods for reducing age model uncertainties and suggest that even with very high sampling densities, radiocarbon uncertainties of at least a few hundred years are unavoidable. Age model uncertainties are smallest during the Holocene (205 yr) and the glacial (360 yr) but are large at the base of the record (1660 yr), due to a combination of decreasing sample density, larger calibration uncertainties and increases in radiocarbon age scatter. For portions of the chronology older than ~ 35 cal kyr, additional considerations, such as the use of a low-blank graphitization system and more rigorous sample pretreatment were necessary to generate a reliable age depth model because of the incorporation of small amounts of younger carbon. A comparison of radiocarbon age model results and lamination counts over the time interval ~ 15–30 cal kyr agree with an overall discrepancy of ~ 10% and display similar changes in sedimentation rate, supporting the annual nature of sediment laminations in the early part of the record. Changes in sedimentation rates reconstructed from the age-depth model indicate that intervals of enhanced sediment delivery occurred at 16–19, 24 and 29–31 cal kyr, broadly synchronous with reconstructed drought episodes elsewhere in northern West Africa and potentially, with changes in Atlantic meridional heat transport during North Atlantic Heinrich events. These data suggest that millennial-scale drought events in the West African monsoon region were latitudinally extensive, reaching within several hundred kilometers of the Guinea coast. This is inconsistent with a simple southward shift in the mean position of the monsoon rainbelt, and requires changes in moisture convergence as a result of either a reduction in the moisture content of the tropical rainbelt, decreased convection, or both.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.08.001","usgsCitation":"Shanahan, T.M., Beck, J.W., Overpeck, J.T., McKay, N.P., Pigati, J., Peck, J.A., Scholz, C.A., Heil, C.W., and King, J.W., 2012, Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 361-362, p. 49-60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.08.001.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"49","endPage":"60","ipdsId":"IP-035765","costCenters":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488165,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/gsofacpubs/1668","text":"External Repository"},{"id":276150,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":276149,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.08.001"}],"country":"Ghana","otherGeospatial":"Lake Bosumtwi","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -1.446644,6.470923 ], [ -1.446644,6.540851 ], [ -1.371768,6.540851 ], [ -1.371768,6.470923 ], [ -1.446644,6.470923 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"361-362","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5203a37ce4b02bdb1bc63fce","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Shanahan, Timothy M.","contributorId":85082,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Shanahan","given":"Timothy","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":482106,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Beck, J. 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Jr.","contributorId":44454,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Heil","given":"Clifford","suffix":"Jr.","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":482104,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"King, John W.","contributorId":99601,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"King","given":"John","email":"","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":6922,"text":"University of Rhode Island","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":482107,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9}]}} ,{"id":70048115,"text":"70048115 - 2012 - Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-05-23T16:29:45","indexId":"70048115","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T09:24:42","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":24,"text":"Conference Paper"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":19,"text":"Conference Paper"},"title":"Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty","docAbstract":"Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkTitle":"9th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics 2012 Proceedings","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"language":"English","usgsCitation":"Wildhaber, M.L., Wikle, C.K., Anderson, C.J., Franz, K.J., Moran, E.H., and Dey, R., 2012, Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty, in 9th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics 2012 Proceedings, 8 p.","productDescription":"8 p.","numberOfPages":"8","ipdsId":"IP-035667","costCenters":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":287648,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","otherGeospatial":"Missouri River","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -180.0,-90.0 ], [ -180.0,90.0 ], [ 180.0,90.0 ], [ 180.0,-90.0 ], [ -180.0,-90.0 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5387056ee4b0aa26cd7b53d1","contributors":{"editors":[{"text":"Mader, Helmut","contributorId":111577,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Mader","given":"Helmut","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":509597,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Kraml, Julia","contributorId":112880,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kraml","given":"Julia","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":509598,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":2}],"authors":[{"text":"Wildhaber, Mark L. 0000-0002-6538-9083 mwildhaber@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6538-9083","contributorId":1386,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wildhaber","given":"Mark","email":"mwildhaber@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":483779,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Wikle, Christopher K.","contributorId":55680,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wikle","given":"Christopher","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483783,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Anderson, Christopher J.","contributorId":11516,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Anderson","given":"Christopher","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483781,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Franz, Kristie J.","contributorId":36061,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Franz","given":"Kristie","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483782,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Moran, Edward H. emoran@usgs.gov","contributorId":5445,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Moran","given":"Edward","email":"emoran@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":192,"text":"Columbia Environmental Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":483780,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Dey, Rima","contributorId":81210,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dey","given":"Rima","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":483784,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70146240,"text":"70146240 - 2012 - Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-01-03T15:29:53.984353","indexId":"70146240","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3887,"text":"Advances in Geophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering","docAbstract":"Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","publisherLocation":"New York, NY","doi":"10.1016/B978-0-12-380938-4.00002-1","usgsCitation":"Geist, E.L., 2012, Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering: Advances in Geophysics, v. 53, p. 35-92, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-380938-4.00002-1.","productDescription":"58 p.","startPage":"35","endPage":"92","numberOfPages":"58","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-029022","costCenters":[{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":308148,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"53","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":14,"text":"Menlo Park PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"55fa92b1e4b05d6c4e501a5e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Geist, Eric L. 0000-0003-0611-1150 egeist@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0611-1150","contributorId":1956,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Geist","given":"Eric","email":"egeist@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":186,"text":"Coastal and Marine Geology Program","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":520,"text":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":544883,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70045588,"text":"70045588 - 2012 - Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-01-05T18:01:12.044462","indexId":"70045588","displayToPublicDate":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3331,"text":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study","docAbstract":"We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid environments characterized by high topo-climatic variability, land and water managers need indicators of local watershed hydrology response to complement regional temperature and precipitation estimates. Our results also suggest that temperature forcing may generate greater drought stress affecting soils and stream flows than can be estimated by variability in precipitation alone.","language":"English","publisher":"University of California","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2012v10iss4art2","usgsCitation":"Micheli, E., Flint, L., Flint, A., Weiss, S., and Kennedy, M., 2012, Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 10, no. 4, 31 p., https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2012v10iss4art2.","productDescription":"31 p.","ipdsId":"IP-028558","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":552,"text":"San Francisco Bay-Delta","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474239,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2012v10iss4art2","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":381884,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","otherGeospatial":"San Francisco Bay","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -123.0,37.0 ], [ -123.0,38.5 ], [ -121.5,38.5 ], [ -121.5,37.0 ], [ -123.0,37.0 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"10","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-12-05","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51838ae6e4b0a21483941a8e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Micheli, Elisabeth","contributorId":105615,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Micheli","given":"Elisabeth","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477892,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Flint, Lorraine 0000-0002-7868-441X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7868-441X","contributorId":97753,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Flint","given":"Lorraine","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477891,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Flint, Alan","contributorId":58503,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Flint","given":"Alan","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477889,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Weiss, Stuart","contributorId":7590,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Weiss","given":"Stuart","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477888,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Kennedy, Morgan","contributorId":77446,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kennedy","given":"Morgan","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":477890,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ]}