Demand for natural gas is increasing more rapidly than anticipated in Far East markets because (1) China has modified its policies in order to increase reliance on gas, in part to mitigate the growth in its coal consumption (which now stand at almost half of world coal production), (2) Japan has announced its intention to eventually shutdown its nuclear power industry, and (3) India, which currently has more than 400 million people without electricity, desires to accelerate electrification. This analysis investigates the potential role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia's future demand for gas imports. It initially surveys the discovered or known gas in stranded gas accumulations in Central Asia, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It then examines the primary gas import markets of China, India, Japan, and South Korea by describing energy use, gas demand trends, and domestic gas supplies to establish boundaries that encompass the wide variation in gas import demands in these markets during the two decades following 2020.
Then the cost of developing and delivering gas through overland pipelines from selected stranded gas fields in Central Asia and Russia to China is examined. Analysis shows that for the Shanghai market in China, the costs of developing and delivering Russia's stranded gas from the petroleum provinces of eastern Siberia are competitive with costs estimated for stranded gas from Central Asia. However, for the Western Siberian Basin, delivered gas costs are at least 3 US dollars per thousand cubic feet (USD/Mcf) higher than delivered gas from Central Asia.
The extraction and transport costs to a liquefaction plant for gas from stranded gas fields located in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the basins of eastern Siberia are then evaluated. The resource cost functions presented show development and extraction costs as a function of the volume of stranded gas developed for each country. The analysis demonstrates that, although the Russian fields in areas of eastern Siberia are large with relatively low extraction costs, distances to a potential liquefaction plant at Vladivostok make them initially the high cost suppliers of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. For the LNG markets examined, Australia and Malaysia are initially the lowest cost suppliers. For the Shanghai market, a comparison of the cost of supplying gas by pipeline with the cost of supplying LNG shows that the pipeline costs from areas of eastern Siberia and Central Asia are generally lower than delivered cost of gas as LNG from the LNG supply sources considered.
","largerWorkType":{"id":4,"text":"Book"},"largerWorkSubtype":{"id":12,"text":"Conference publication"},"conferenceTitle":"SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium","conferenceDate":"September 24-25, 2012","conferenceLocation":"Calgary, Alberta","language":"English","publisher":"Society of Petroleum Engineers","publisherLocation":"Proceedings 2012 Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium","doi":"10.2118/162870-MS","usgsCitation":"Attanasi, E., and Freeman, P., 2012, Role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia’s future demand for gas imports, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Calgary, Alberta, September 24-25, 2012, 37 p., https://doi.org/10.2118/162870-MS.","productDescription":"37 p.","costCenters":[{"id":241,"text":"Eastern Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":255,"text":"Energy Resources Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":368366,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Australia, Russia","otherGeospatial":"Central Asia, Southeast Asia","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-09-24","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Attanasi, Emil D. 0000-0001-6845-7160 attanasi@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6845-7160","contributorId":198728,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Attanasi","given":"Emil D.","email":"attanasi@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":241,"text":"Eastern Energy Resources Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":773315,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Freeman, Philip A. 0000-0002-0863-7431 pfreeman@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0863-7431","contributorId":193093,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Freeman","given":"Philip A.","email":"pfreeman@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":255,"text":"Energy Resources Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":773316,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70069209,"text":"70069209 - 2012 - Juan de Fuca slab geometry and its relation to Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2014-01-14T09:36:45","indexId":"70069209","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T09:15:57","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2314,"text":"Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Juan de Fuca slab geometry and its relation to Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity","docAbstract":"A new model of the subducted Juan de Fuca plate beneath western North America allows first-order correlations between the occurrence of Wadati-Benioff zone earthquakes and slab geometry, temperature, and hydration state. The geo-referenced 3D model, constructed from weighted control points, integrates depth information from earthquake locations and regional seismic velocity studies. We use the model to separate earthquakes that occur in the Cascadia forearc from those that occur within the underlying Juan de Fuca plate and thereby reveal previously obscured details regarding the spatial distribution of earthquakes. Seismicity within the slab is most prevalent where the slab is warped beneath northwestern California and western Washington suggesting that slab flexure, in addition to expected metamorphic dehydration processes, promotes earthquake occurrence within the subducted oceanic plate. Earthquake patterns beneath western Vancouver Island are consistent with slab dehydration processes. Conversely, the lack of slab earthquakes beneath western Oregon is consistent with an anhydrous slab. Double-differenced relocated seismicity resolves a double seismic zone within the slab beneath northwestern California that strongly constrains the location of the plate interface and delineates a cluster of seismicity 10 km above the surface that includes the 1992 M7.1 Mendocino earthquake. We infer that this earthquake ruptured a surface within the Cascadia accretionary margin above the Juan de Fuca plate. We further speculate that this earthquake is associated with a detached fragment of former Farallon plate. Other subsurface tectonic elements within the forearc may have the potential to generate similar damaging earthquakes.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1029/2012JB009407","usgsCitation":"McCrory, P.A., Blair, J., Waldhause, F., and Oppenheimer, D.H., 2012, Juan de Fuca slab geometry and its relation to Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity: Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth, v. 117, no. B9, B09306; 23 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009407.","productDescription":"B09306; 23 p.","ipdsId":"IP-029746","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":474334,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jb009407","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":280962,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":280957,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009407"}],"country":"Canada;United States","state":"British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washington","otherGeospatial":"Juan De Fuca Plate","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -0.015833333333333335,8.333333333333334E-4 ], [ -0.015833333333333335,0.001388888888888889 ], [ -0.01611111111111111,0.001388888888888889 ], [ -0.01611111111111111,8.333333333333334E-4 ], [ -0.015833333333333335,8.333333333333334E-4 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"117","issue":"B9","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-09-18","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"53cd6363e4b0b290850fec2c","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"McCrory, Patricia A. 0000-0003-2471-0018 pmccrory@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2471-0018","contributorId":2728,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McCrory","given":"Patricia","email":"pmccrory@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":488236,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Blair, J. Luke","contributorId":102573,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blair","given":"J. Luke","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":488238,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Waldhause, Felix","contributorId":50822,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Waldhause","given":"Felix","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":488237,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Oppenheimer, David H. oppen@usgs.gov","contributorId":1112,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Oppenheimer","given":"David","email":"oppen@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":488235,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70040325,"text":"pp1650F - 2012 - Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-08-29T14:10:11.854947","indexId":"pp1650F","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T08:42:33","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":5,"text":"USGS Numbered Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":331,"text":"Professional Paper","code":"PP","onlineIssn":"2330-7102","printIssn":"1044-9612","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":5}},"seriesNumber":"1650","chapter":"F","title":"Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories","docAbstract":"Vegetation inventories (plant taxa present in a vegetation assemblage at a given site) can be used to estimate climatic parameters based on the identification of the range of a given parameter where all taxa in an assemblage overlap (\"Mutual Climatic Range\"). For the reconstruction of past climates from fossil or subfossil plant assemblages, we assembled the data necessary for such analyses for 530 woody plant taxa and eight climatic parameters in North America. Here we present examples of how these data can be used to obtain paleoclimatic estimates from botanical data in a straightforward, simple, and robust fashion. We also include matrices of climate parameter versus occurrence or nonoccurrence of the individual taxa. These relations are depicted graphically as histograms of the population distributions of the occurrences of a given taxon plotted against a given climatic parameter. This provides a new method for quantification of paleoclimatic parameters from fossil plant assemblages.","language":"English","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","publisherLocation":"Reston, VA","doi":"10.3133/pp1650F","usgsCitation":"Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., Pelltier, R.T., Strickland, L.E., Shafer, S., and Bartlein, P.J., 2012, Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1650, HTML Document, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1650F.","productDescription":"HTML Document","additionalOnlineFiles":"Y","costCenters":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":262579,"rank":3,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/p1650-f/Introduction.html","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}},{"id":262578,"rank":2,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/p1650-f/","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}},{"id":262588,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/pp_1650_F.gif"},{"id":419974,"rank":4,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9FPD80E","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"A gridded database of the modern distributions of climate, woody plant taxa, and ecoregions for the continental United States and Canada"}],"country":"Canada;United States","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ 173.0000,21.9000 ], [ 173.0000,80.3000 ], [ -51.5000,80.3000 ], [ -51.5000,21.9000 ], [ 173.0000,21.9000 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50d85b65e4b0064e695a1419","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Thompson, Robert S. 0000-0001-9287-2954 rthompson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9287-2954","contributorId":891,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Thompson","given":"Robert","email":"rthompson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":468089,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Anderson, Katherine H. 0000-0003-2677-6109","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2677-6109","contributorId":52556,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Anderson","given":"Katherine","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":468093,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Pelltier, Richard T. 0000-0001-8322-7961 rtpelltier@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8322-7961","contributorId":4683,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pelltier","given":"Richard","email":"rtpelltier@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":468091,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Strickland, Laura E. 0000-0002-1958-7273 lstrickland@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1958-7273","contributorId":4682,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Strickland","given":"Laura","email":"lstrickland@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":468090,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Shafer, Sarah L.","contributorId":32623,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Shafer","given":"Sarah L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":468092,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Bartlein, Patrick J.","contributorId":106879,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bartlein","given":"Patrick","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":468094,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70043964,"text":"70043964 - 2012 - Effect of developmental stage of unfed fry on survival and growth of steelhead released in a stream and hatchery ponds (Study sites: Dworshak Hatchery and North Fork Palouse River; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-04-21T15:41:40.146832","indexId":"70043964","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T06:30:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"chapter":"6","title":"Effect of developmental stage of unfed fry on survival and growth of steelhead released in a stream and hatchery ponds (Study sites: Dworshak Hatchery and North Fork Palouse River; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996)","docAbstract":"We tested whether differences in developmental stage of unfed fry at release affected subsequent survival and growth of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in a stream and hatchery ponds. Differences in development were created by artificially spawning hatchery steelhead from the Clearwater River, Idaho, and incubating their progeny at three different temperatures (means=10.9, 11.3, and 11.7°C). Time between fertilization and maximum alevin wet weight (MAWW) was predicted from incubation temperature using a model. MAWW is equivalent to the button - up fry stage of development. Developmental stages at release were “underdeveloped” (97.7% of model - predicted time to MAWW, mean weight=0.177 g, proportion yolk=0.087), “intermediate” (102.5%, 0.179 g, 0.044), and “overdeveloped” (107.9%, 0.156 g, 0.030). Neither survival nor growth in the hatchery to near the end of the standard one year rearing period differed among groups. In the stream, frequency of overdeveloped fish relative to the other two groups decreased fro m release in May to September, probably indicating lower survival for the overdeveloped fish during that interval since emigration of sub - yearlings is typically negligible. Length in September was less for overdeveloped than for intermediate fish and was in between for underdeveloped fish, suggesting that growth between May and September was less for overdeveloped fish than for intermediate fish. Although changes in relative frequency and size occurred among fry development groups from September to one ye ar later, those changes may have reflected differences in emigration rate during the interval rather than differential survival or growth. Our results show a cost to survival and growth in a stream, but not in a hatchery, from overdevelopment characterize d by loss of weight and yolk reserves relative to fry closer to MAWW at release. We didn’t find any cost from underdevelopment; however, our underdeveloped fry were closer to MAWW than the overdeveloped fry, and they may have been no farther from MAWW than the intermediate fry based on percentage of model - predicted time to MAWW at release.
","largerWorkType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"largerWorkTitle":"Genetic differences in growth, migration, and survival between hatchery and wild steelhead and Chinook salmon: Final report. Performance period: June 1991 to December 2005","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":3,"text":"Organization Series"},"language":"English","publisher":"Bonneville Power Administration","usgsCitation":"Rubin, S.P., Reisenbichler, R.R., Wetzel, L.A., and Stenberg, K.D., 2012, Effect of developmental stage of unfed fry on survival and growth of steelhead released in a stream and hatchery ponds (Study sites: Dworshak Hatchery and North Fork Palouse River; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996), chap. 6 of Genetic differences in growth, migration, and survival between hatchery and wild steelhead and Chinook salmon: Final report. Performance period: June 1991 to December 2005, p. 202-210.","productDescription":"8 p.","startPage":"202","endPage":"210","numberOfPages":"8","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-026896","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":320956,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":385256,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.cbfish.org/Document.mvc/Viewer/P129072"}],"country":"United States","state":"Idaho, Washington","city":"Ahsahka","otherGeospatial":"North Fork Palouse River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -116.34092330932617,\n 46.49573342735796\n ],\n [\n -116.31723403930664,\n 46.49573342735796\n ],\n [\n -116.31723403930664,\n 46.51133004806836\n ],\n [\n -116.34092330932617,\n 46.51133004806836\n ],\n [\n -116.34092330932617,\n 46.49573342735796\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"type\": \"Polygon\",\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -118.38592529296874,\n 46.68336307047754\n ],\n [\n -117.14996337890625,\n 46.68336307047754\n ],\n [\n -117.14996337890625,\n 47.2288945564232\n ],\n [\n -118.38592529296874,\n 47.2288945564232\n ],\n [\n -118.38592529296874,\n 46.68336307047754\n ]\n ]\n ]\n }\n }\n ]\n}","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"572b1d30e4b0b13d391b447c","contributors":{"editors":[{"text":"Rubin, Stephen P. 0000-0003-3054-7173","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3054-7173","contributorId":38037,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rubin","given":"Stephen","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628738,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Reisenbichler, Reginald R.","contributorId":20623,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reisenbichler","given":"Reginald","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":628739,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wetzel, Lisa A. 0000-0003-3178-9940 lwetzel@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3178-9940","contributorId":3016,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wetzel","given":"Lisa","email":"lwetzel@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628740,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Hayes, Michael C. 0000-0002-9060-0565 mhayes@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9060-0565","contributorId":3017,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hayes","given":"Michael","email":"mhayes@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628741,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":4}],"authors":[{"text":"Rubin, Stephen P. 0000-0003-3054-7173","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3054-7173","contributorId":38037,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rubin","given":"Stephen","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628734,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Reisenbichler, Reginald R.","contributorId":20623,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reisenbichler","given":"Reginald","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":628735,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wetzel, Lisa A. 0000-0003-3178-9940 lwetzel@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3178-9940","contributorId":3016,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wetzel","given":"Lisa","email":"lwetzel@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628736,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Stenberg, Karl D. 0000-0001-9802-2707 kstenberg@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9802-2707","contributorId":3747,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stenberg","given":"Karl","email":"kstenberg@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628737,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70043948,"text":"70043948 - 2012 - Predicted time from fertilization to maximum wet weight for steelhead alevins based on incubation temperature and egg size (Study site: Western Fishery Research Center, Seattle; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2021-04-22T11:44:24.458229","indexId":"70043948","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T04:15:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":5,"text":"Book chapter"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":24,"text":"Book Chapter"},"chapter":"4","title":"Predicted time from fertilization to maximum wet weight for steelhead alevins based on incubation temperature and egg size (Study site: Western Fishery Research Center, Seattle; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996)","docAbstract":"The accuracy of a model that predicts time between fertilization and maximum alevin wet weight (MAWW) from incubation temperature was tested for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Dworshak National Fish Hatchery on the Clearwater River, Idaho. MAWW corresponds to the button-up fry stage of development. Embryos were incubated at warm (mean=11.6°C) or cold (mean=7.3°C) temperatures and time between fertilization and MAWW was measured for each temperature. Model predictions of time to MAWW were within 1% of measured time to MAWW. Mean egg weight ranged from 0.101-0.136 g among females (mean = 0.116). Time to MAWW was positively related to egg size for each temperature, but the increase in time to MAWW with increasing egg size was greater for embryos reared at the warm than at the cold temperature. We developed equations accounting for the effect of egg size on time to MAWW for each temperature, and also for the mean of those temperatures (9.3°C).
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Performance period: June 1991 to December 2005, p. 174-185.","productDescription":"11 p.","startPage":"174","endPage":"185","numberOfPages":"11","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-026743","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":320958,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":385254,"rank":2,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.cbfish.org/Document.mvc/Viewer/P129072"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"572b1d39e4b0b13d391b44f7","contributors":{"editors":[{"text":"Rubin, Stephen P. 0000-0003-3054-7173","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3054-7173","contributorId":38037,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rubin","given":"Stephen","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628749,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Reisenbichler, Reginald R.","contributorId":20623,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reisenbichler","given":"Reginald","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":628750,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wetzel, Lisa A. 0000-0003-3178-9940 lwetzel@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3178-9940","contributorId":3016,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wetzel","given":"Lisa","email":"lwetzel@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628751,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Hayes, Michael C. 0000-0002-9060-0565 mhayes@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9060-0565","contributorId":3017,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hayes","given":"Michael","email":"mhayes@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628752,"contributorType":{"id":2,"text":"Editors"},"rank":4}],"authors":[{"text":"Rubin, Stephen P. 0000-0003-3054-7173","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3054-7173","contributorId":38037,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rubin","given":"Stephen","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":628746,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Reisenbichler, Reginald R.","contributorId":20623,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Reisenbichler","given":"Reginald","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":628747,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Slatton, Stacey L.","contributorId":169151,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Slatton","given":"Stacey","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":628748,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70045105,"text":"70045105 - 2012 - Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-06-14T11:50:32","indexId":"70045105","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1807,"text":"Geophysical Research Letters","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami","docAbstract":"The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Geophysical Research Letters","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1029/2012GL053081","usgsCitation":"Wang, D., Becker, N.C., Walsh, D., Fryer, G.J., Weinstein, S.A., McCreery, C.S., and and others, 2012, Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 39, no. 19, 6 p.; L19601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053081.","productDescription":"6 p.; L19601","ipdsId":"IP-040415","costCenters":[{"id":415,"text":"National Earthquake Information Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":474337,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00878973","text":"External Repository"},{"id":273717,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053081"},{"id":273718,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Indonesia","otherGeospatial":"Sumatra","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ 95.19,-5.94 ], [ 95.19,5.66 ], [ 106.1,5.66 ], [ 106.1,-5.94 ], [ 95.19,-5.94 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"39","issue":"19","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2012-10-02","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51bc3b68e4b0c04034a01cca","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wang, Dailin","contributorId":26957,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wang","given":"Dailin","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476810,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Becker, Nathan C.","contributorId":107173,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Becker","given":"Nathan","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476812,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Walsh, David","contributorId":27770,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Walsh","given":"David","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476811,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Fryer, Gerard J.","contributorId":16735,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fryer","given":"Gerard","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476808,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Weinstein, Stuart A.","contributorId":13120,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Weinstein","given":"Stuart","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476807,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"McCreery, Charles S.","contributorId":26606,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McCreery","given":"Charles","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":476809,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"and others","contributorId":127886,"corporation":true,"usgs":false,"organization":"and others","id":535462,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70043048,"text":"70043048 - 2012 - Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-03-08T12:54:19","indexId":"70043048","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1841,"text":"Global Environmental Change","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales","docAbstract":"Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","publisherLocation":"Amsterdam, Netherlands","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008","usgsCitation":"Sleeter, B.M., Sohl, T.L., Bouchard, M., Reker, R.R., Soulard, C.E., Acevedo, W., Griffith, G.E., Sleeter, R., Auch, R.F., Sayler, K., Prisley, S., and Zhu, Z., 2012, Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales: Global Environmental Change, v. 22, no. 4, p. 896-914, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008.","productDescription":"19 p.","startPage":"896","endPage":"914","numberOfPages":"19","ipdsId":"IP-030516","costCenters":[{"id":222,"text":"Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) 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The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.apgeochem.2012.07.007","usgsCitation":"Nordstrom, D.K., 2012, Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy: Applied Geochemistry, v. 27, no. 10, p. 1899-1919, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2012.07.007.","productDescription":"21 p.","startPage":"1899","endPage":"1919","ipdsId":"IP-038051","costCenters":[{"id":5044,"text":"National Research Program - Central Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":343620,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"27","issue":"10","publishingServiceCenter":{"id":2,"text":"Denver PSC"},"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5965bacfe4b0d1f9f05b38db","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Nordstrom, D. Kirk 0000-0003-3283-5136 dkn@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3283-5136","contributorId":749,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nordstrom","given":"D.","email":"dkn@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"Kirk","affiliations":[{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":5044,"text":"National Research Program - Central Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":704402,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70043446,"text":"70043446 - 2012 - Thresholds for short-term acid and aluminum impacts on Atlantic salmon smolts","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-04-07T08:29:46","indexId":"70043446","displayToPublicDate":"2012-10-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2012","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":853,"text":"Aquaculture","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Thresholds for short-term acid and aluminum impacts on Atlantic salmon smolts","docAbstract":"Although the negative effects of acid and aluminum (Al) on smolt development have been known for some time, the thresholds for impact of short-term exposure of several days that may occur during episodic acidification have not been systematically examined. In order to determine the levels of acid and Al that impact juvenile Atlantic salmon, smolts and yolk-sac larvae were exposed to three pH levels (6.0, 5.7, and 5.3) and four added Al levels (0, 40, 80 and 175 μg/L total Al) for 48 h. Following this treatment, 10 smolts were sampled in freshwater and another 10 were subjected to a 24 h seawater challenge (35 ppt). Survival of yolk-sac larvae was > 96% in all acid and Al treatments. All smolts died within 48 h at pH 5.3, 175 μg L− 1 Al. There were some mortalities in freshwater at pH 5.3, 80 μg L− 1 Al and pH 5.7, 175 μg L− 1 Al, and further mortalities when these fish were transferred to seawater. Mortalities in these groups were associated with decreased plasma chloride in freshwater and higher plasma chloride in seawater, indicating that these smolts had lost seawater tolerance. Gill Na+/K+-ATPase (NKA) activity decreased at pH 5.7, 175 μg L− 1 Al in freshwater, and further decreases were observed at more moderate pH and Al exposures after transfer to seawater. Hematocrit and plasma glucose were the most sensitive physiological responses, increasing at all Al treatments at pH 5.7 and 5.3 in freshwater. There was no detectable increase in gill Al levels at pH 6.0 with added Al, whereas substantial increases in gill Al were observed in all added Al groups at pH 5.7 and 5.3. Our results demonstrate a critical interaction between acid and Al in their effects on smolts, and that episodic acidification events will negatively impact smolt survival in freshwater and after seawater entry.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Aquaculture","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.aquaculture.2011.07.001","usgsCitation":"McCormick, S., Lerner, D.T., Regish, A.M., O’Dea, M.F., and Monette, M.Y., 2012, Thresholds for short-term acid and aluminum impacts on Atlantic salmon smolts: Aquaculture, v. 362-363, p. 224-231, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2011.07.001.","startPage":"224","endPage":"231","ipdsId":"IP-021574","costCenters":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":270631,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":270630,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2011.07.001"}],"country":"United States","volume":"362-363","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51629570e4b0c25842758d13","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"McCormick, Stephen D. 0000-0003-0621-6200 smccormick@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0621-6200","contributorId":2197,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"McCormick","given":"Stephen D.","email":"smccormick@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":473600,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Lerner, Darrren T.","contributorId":51175,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lerner","given":"Darrren","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":473603,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Regish, Amy M. 0000-0003-4747-4265 aregish@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4747-4265","contributorId":5415,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Regish","given":"Amy","email":"aregish@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":473601,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"O’Dea, Michael F. modea@usgs.gov","contributorId":5417,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O’Dea","given":"Michael","email":"modea@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"F.","affiliations":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":473602,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Monette, Michelle Y.","contributorId":95769,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Monette","given":"Michelle","email":"","middleInitial":"Y.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":473604,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ]}