On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.
","language":"English","publisher":"Nature","doi":"10.1038/nature09653","issn":"00280836","usgsCitation":"Amstrup, S.C., Deweaver, E., Douglas, D., Marcot, B., Durner, G.M., Bitz, C., and Bailey, D., 2010, Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence: Nature, v. 468, no. 7326, p. 955-958, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09653.","productDescription":"4 p.","startPage":"955","endPage":"958","numberOfPages":"4","costCenters":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":245999,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":218022,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09653"}],"volume":"468","issue":"7326","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-12-15","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a2a6be4b0c8380cd5b171","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Amstrup, Steven C.","contributorId":67034,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Amstrup","given":"Steven","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":13182,"text":"Polar Bears International","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":462008,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Deweaver, E.T.","contributorId":30489,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Deweaver","given":"E.T.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462004,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Douglas, David C. 0000-0003-0186-1104 ddouglas@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0186-1104","contributorId":150115,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Douglas","given":"David C.","email":"ddouglas@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":117,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology WTEB","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":116,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology MFEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":462003,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Marcot, B.G.","contributorId":102722,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Marcot","given":"B.G.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462009,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Durner, George M. 0000-0002-3370-1191 gdurner@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3370-1191","contributorId":3576,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Durner","given":"George","email":"gdurner@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":114,"text":"Alaska Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":116,"text":"Alaska Science Center Biology MFEB","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":462007,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Bitz, C.M.","contributorId":58501,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bitz","given":"C.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462006,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Bailey, D.A.","contributorId":47215,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bailey","given":"D.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462005,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70037630,"text":"70037630 - 2010 - Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:06","indexId":"70037630","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1321,"text":"Conservation Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations","docAbstract":"Species' assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection-nondetection records) are generated. Within-season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site-occupancy models are applied directly to the detection-history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site-occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen-science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis. ) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus. ) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis. ) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria. ). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Conservation Biology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01479.x","issn":"08888892","usgsCitation":"Kery, M., Royle, J., Schmid, H., Schaub, M., Volet, B., Hafliger, G., and Zbinden, N., 2010, Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations: Conservation Biology, v. 24, no. 5, p. 1388-1397, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01479.x.","startPage":"1388","endPage":"1397","numberOfPages":"10","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":218007,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01479.x"},{"id":245983,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"24","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-03-10","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505b90fde4b08c986b319716","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Kery, M.","contributorId":46637,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kery","given":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461999,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Royle, J. Andrew 0000-0003-3135-2167","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3135-2167","contributorId":96221,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Royle","given":"J. Andrew","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462002,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Schmid, Hans","contributorId":19648,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schmid","given":"Hans","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461996,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Schaub, M.","contributorId":70897,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schaub","given":"M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462000,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Volet, B.","contributorId":26554,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Volet","given":"B.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461998,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Hafliger, G.","contributorId":26168,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hafliger","given":"G.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461997,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Zbinden, N.","contributorId":78593,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Zbinden","given":"N.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":462001,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70037627,"text":"70037627 - 2010 - Surface-wave potential for triggering tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2019-05-30T12:31:36","indexId":"70037627","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1135,"text":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","onlineIssn":"1943-3573","printIssn":"0037-1106","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Surface-wave potential for triggering tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor","docAbstract":"Source processes commonly posed to explain instances of remote dynamic triggering of tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor by surface waves include frictional failure and various modes of fluid activation. The relative potential for Love- and Rayleigh-wave dynamic stresses to trigger tectonic tremor through failure on critically stressed thrust and vertical strike-slip faults under the Coulomb-Griffith failure criteria as a function of incidence angle is anticorrelated over the 15- to 30-km-depth range that hosts tectonic tremor. Love-wave potential is high for strike-parallel incidence on low-angle reverse faults and null for strike-normal incidence; the opposite holds for Rayleigh waves. Love-wave potential is high for both strike-parallel and strike-normal incidence on vertical, strike-slip faults and minimal for ~45?? incidence angles. The opposite holds for Rayleigh waves. This pattern is consistent with documented instances of tremor triggered by Love waves incident on the Cascadia mega-thrust and the San Andreas fault (SAF) in central California resulting from shear failure on weak faults (apparent friction, ????? 0.2). However, documented instances of tremor triggered by surface waves with strike-parallel incidence along the Nankai megathrust beneath Shikoku, Japan, is associated primarily with Rayleigh waves. This is consistent with the tremor bursts resulting from mixed-mode failure (crack opening and shear failure) facilitated by near-lithostatic ambient pore pressure, low differential stress, with a moderate friction coefficient (?? ~ 0.6) on the Nankai subduction interface. Rayleigh-wave dilatational stress is relatively weak at tectonic tremor source depths and seems unlikely to contribute significantly to the triggering process, except perhaps for an indirect role on the SAF in sustaining tremor into the Rayleigh-wave coda that was initially triggered by Love waves.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1785/0120090362","issn":"00371106","usgsCitation":"Hill, D., 2010, Surface-wave potential for triggering tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 100, no. 5 A, p. 1859-1878, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090362.","startPage":"1859","endPage":"1878","numberOfPages":"20","costCenters":[{"id":615,"text":"Volcano Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":217992,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090362"},{"id":245967,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"100","issue":"5 A","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-09-20","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505ba1b6e4b08c986b31f273","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hill, D.P.","contributorId":27432,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hill","given":"D.P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461991,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70037626,"text":"70037626 - 2010 - Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-12-27T14:53:30","indexId":"70037626","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2508,"text":"Journal of Wildlife Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta","docAbstract":"Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are dependent on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) for food and shelter during winter, yet few studies have assessed winter habitat selection, particularly at scales applicable to conservation planning. Small changes to availability of winter habitats have caused drastic reductions in some sage-grouse populations. We modeled winter habitat selection by sage-grouse in Alberta, Canada, by using a resource selection function. Our purpose was to 1) generate a robust winter habitat-selection model for Alberta sage-grouse; 2) spatially depict habitat suitability in a Geographic Information System to identify areas with a high probability of selection and thus, conservation importance; and 3) assess the relative influence of human development, including oil and gas wells, in landscape models of winter habitat selection. Terrain and vegetation characteristics, sagebrush cover, anthropogenic landscape features, and energy development were important in top Akaike's Information Criterionselected models. During winter, sage-grouse selected dense sagebrush cover and homogenous less rugged areas, and avoided energy development and 2-track truck trails. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development highlights the need for comprehensive management strategies that maintain suitable habitats across all seasons. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.","language":"English","publisher":"The Wildlife Society","doi":"10.2193/2009-368","usgsCitation":"Carpenter, J.L., Aldridge, C.L., and Boyce, M.S., 2010, Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 74, no. 8, p. 1806-1814, https://doi.org/10.2193/2009-368.","productDescription":"9 p.","startPage":"1806","endPage":"1814","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":245950,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"74","issue":"8","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-12-13","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505aafc1e4b0c8380cd8777f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Carpenter, Jennifer L.","contributorId":12940,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Carpenter","given":"Jennifer","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461990,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Aldridge, Cameron L. 0000-0003-3926-6941 aldridgec@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3926-6941","contributorId":191773,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Aldridge","given":"Cameron","email":"aldridgec@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":291,"text":"Fort Collins Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":461989,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Boyce, Mark S.","contributorId":113205,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Boyce","given":"Mark","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":12980,"text":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":461988,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70037625,"text":"70037625 - 2010 - Late Hesperian plains formation and degradation in a low sedimentation zone of the northern lowlands of Mars","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:01","indexId":"70037625","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1963,"text":"Icarus","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Late Hesperian plains formation and degradation in a low sedimentation zone of the northern lowlands of Mars","docAbstract":"The plains materials that form the martian northern lowlands suggest large-scale sedimentation in this part of the planet. The general view is that these sedimentary materials were transported from zones of highland erosion via outflow channels and other fluvial systems. The study region, the northern circum-polar plains south of Gemini Scopuli on Planum Boreum, comprises the only extensive zone in the martian northern lowlands that does not include sub-basin floors nor is downstream from outflow channel systems. Therefore, within this zone, the ponding of fluids and fluidized sediments associated with outflow channel discharges is less likely to have taken place relative to sub-basin areas that form the other northern circum-polar plains surrounding Planum Boreum. Our findings indicate that during the Late Hesperian sedimentary deposits produced by the erosion of an ancient cratered landscape, as well as via sedimentary volcanism, were regionally emplaced to form extensive plains materials within the study region. The distribution and magnitude of surface degradation suggest that groundwater emergence from an aquifer that extended from the Arabia Terra cratered highlands to the northern lowlands took place non-catastrophically and regionally within the study region through faulted upper crustal materials. In our model the margin of the Utopia basin adjacent to the study region may have acted as a boundary to this aquifer. Partial destruction and dehydration of these Late Hesperian plains, perhaps induced by high thermal anomalies resulting from the low thermal conductivity of these materials, led to the formation of extensive knobby fields and pedestal craters. During the Early Amazonian, the rates of regional resurfacing within the study region decreased significantly; perhaps because the knobby ridges forming the eroded impact crater rims and contractional ridges consisted of thermally conductive indurated materials, thereby inducing freezing of the tectonically controlled waterways associated with these features. This hypothesis would explain why these features were not completely destroyed. During the Late Amazonian, high-obliquity conditions may have led to the removal of large volumes of volatiles and sediments being eroded from Planum Boreum, which then may have been re-deposited as thick, circum-polar plains. Transition into low obliquity ~5. myr ago may have led to progressive destabilization of these materials leading to collapse and pedestal crater formation. Our model does not contraindicate possible large-scale ponding of fluids in the northern lowlands, such as for example the formation of water and/or mud oceans. In fact, it provides a complementary mechanism involving large-scale groundwater discharges within the northern lowlands for the emplacement of fluids and sediments, which could have potentially contributed to the formation of these bodies. Nevertheless, our model would spatially restrict to surrounding parts of the northern plain either the distribution of the oceans or the zones within these where significant sedimentary accumulation would have taken place. ?? 2010 Elsevier Inc.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Icarus","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1016/j.icarus.2010.04.025","issn":"00191035","usgsCitation":"Rodriguez, J., Tanaka, K.L., Berman, D., and Kargel, J., 2010, Late Hesperian plains formation and degradation in a low sedimentation zone of the northern lowlands of Mars: Icarus, v. 210, no. 1, p. 116-134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2010.04.025.","startPage":"116","endPage":"134","numberOfPages":"19","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":217976,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2010.04.025"},{"id":245949,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"210","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a44e2e4b0c8380cd66e86","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Rodriguez, J.A.P.","contributorId":55948,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Rodriguez","given":"J.A.P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461985,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Tanaka, K. L.","contributorId":31394,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Tanaka","given":"K.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461984,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Berman, D.C.","contributorId":82557,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Berman","given":"D.C.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461986,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Kargel, J.S.","contributorId":88096,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Kargel","given":"J.S.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461987,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70037623,"text":"70037623 - 2010 - Persistence of canine distemper virus in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem's carnivore community","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-10-17T16:40:58","indexId":"70037623","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1450,"text":"Ecological Applications","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Persistence of canine distemper virus in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem's carnivore community","docAbstract":"Canine distemper virus (CDV) is an acute, highly immunizing pathogen that should require high densities and large populations of hosts for long-term persistence, yet CDV persists among terrestrial carnivores with small, patchily distributed groups. We used CDV in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem's (GYE) wolves (Canis lupus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) as a case study for exploring how metapopulation structure, host demographics, and multi-host transmission affect the critical community size and spatial scale required for CDV persistence. We illustrate how host spatial connectivity and demographic turnover interact to affect both local epidemic dynamics, such as the length and variation in inter-epidemic periods, and pathogen persistence using stochastic, spatially explicit susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered simulation models. Given the apparent absence of other known persistence mechanisms (e.g., a carrier or environmental state, densely populated host, chronic infection, or a vector), we suggest that CDV requires either large spatial scales or multi-host transmission for persistence. Current GYE wolf populations are probably too small to support endemic CDV. Coyotes are a plausible reservoir host, but CDV would still require 50 000-100 000 individuals for moderate persistence (>50% over 10 years), which would equate to an area of 1-3 times the size of the GYE (60000-200000 km2). Coyotes, and carnivores in general, are not uniformly distributed; therefore, this is probably a gross underestimate of the spatial scale of CDV persistence. However, the presence of a second competent host species can greatly increase the probability of long-term CDV persistence at much smaller spatial scales. Although no management of CDV is currently recommended for the GYE, wolf managers in the region should expect periodic but unpredictable CDV-related population declines as often as every 2-5 years. Awareness and monitoring of such outbreaks will allow corresponding adjustments in management activities such as regulated public harvest, creating a smooth transition to state wolf management and conservation after >30 years of being protected by the Endangered Species Act.
","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Ecological Applications","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Ecological Society of America","doi":"10.1890/09-1225.1","issn":"10510761","usgsCitation":"Almberg, E.S., Cross, P.C., and Smith, D., 2010, Persistence of canine distemper virus in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem's carnivore community: Ecological Applications, v. 20, no. 7, p. 2058-2074, https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1225.1.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"2058","endPage":"2074","numberOfPages":"17","costCenters":[{"id":34983,"text":"Contaminant Biology Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":245923,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":217950,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1890/09-1225.1"}],"country":"United States","volume":"20","issue":"7","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a76e5e4b0c8380cd78383","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Almberg, Emily S.","contributorId":207014,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Almberg","given":"Emily","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":37431,"text":"Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":461970,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Cross, Paul C. 0000-0001-8045-5213 pcross@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8045-5213","contributorId":2709,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cross","given":"Paul","email":"pcross@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":461971,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Smith, D.W.","contributorId":24726,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Smith","given":"D.W.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461969,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70037622,"text":"70037622 - 2010 - Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:01","indexId":"70037622","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1466,"text":"Ecology Letters","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns","docAbstract":"There is a growing view that to make efficient use of resources, ecological monitoring should be hypothesis-driven and targeted to address specific management questions. 'Targeted' monitoring has been contrasted with other approaches in which a range of quantities are monitored in case they exhibit an alarming trend or provide ad hoc ecological insights. The second form of monitoring, described as surveillance, has been criticized because it does not usually aim to discern between competing hypotheses, and its benefits are harder to identify a priori. The alternative view is that the existence of surveillance data may enable rapid corroboration of emerging hypotheses or help to detect important 'unknown unknowns' that, if undetected, could lead to catastrophic outcomes or missed opportunities. We derive a model to evaluate and compare the efficiency of investments in surveillance and targeted monitoring. We find that a decision to invest in surveillance monitoring may be defensible if: (1) the surveillance design is more likely to discover or corroborate previously unknown phenomena than a targeted design and (2) the expected benefits (or avoided costs) arising from discovery are substantially higher than those arising from a well-planned targeted design. Our examination highlights the importance of being explicit about the objectives, costs and expected benefits of monitoring in a decision analytic framework. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Ecology Letters","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01514.x","issn":"1461023X","usgsCitation":"Wintle, B., Runge, M., and Bekessy, S., 2010, Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns: Ecology Letters, v. 13, no. 11, p. 1325-1337, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01514.x.","startPage":"1325","endPage":"1337","numberOfPages":"13","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":245922,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":217949,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01514.x"}],"volume":"13","issue":"11","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-07-30","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5059e96ce4b0c8380cd48292","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wintle, B.A.","contributorId":72100,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wintle","given":"B.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461968,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Runge, M.C. 0000-0002-8081-536X","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8081-536X","contributorId":49312,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Runge","given":"M.C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461966,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Bekessy, S.A.","contributorId":71424,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bekessy","given":"S.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461967,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70037621,"text":"70037621 - 2010 - Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:00","indexId":"70037621","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3773,"text":"Wildlife Monographs","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California","docAbstract":"The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ?? 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ?? 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ?? 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ?? 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that ??t (??t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized JollySeber estimator Pradel 1996) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated ??t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95 CI 0.9521.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95 CI 0.9461.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95 CI 0.9661.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95 CI 0.9471.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that ?? varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (??t; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 ?? ??3 ?? ??4 ?? .?? ??k -1, were based on estimates of ??t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first ye","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Wildlife Monographs","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.2193/2008-475","issn":"00840173","usgsCitation":"Blakesley, J., Seamans, M., Conner, M., Franklin, A., White, G.C., Gutierrez, R.J., Hines, J., Nichols, J., Munton, T., Shaw, D., Keane, J., Steger, G., and McDonald, T.L., 2010, Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California: Wildlife Monographs, no. 174, p. 1-36, https://doi.org/10.2193/2008-475.","startPage":"1","endPage":"36","numberOfPages":"36","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":217938,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.2193/2008-475"},{"id":245911,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"issue":"174","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-12-13","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a7d54e4b0c8380cd79ea5","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Blakesley, J.A.","contributorId":63920,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blakesley","given":"J.A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461962,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Seamans, M.E.","contributorId":48662,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Seamans","given":"M.E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461959,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Conner, M.M.","contributorId":51136,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Conner","given":"M.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461960,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Franklin, A.B.","contributorId":105667,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Franklin","given":"A.B.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461965,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"White, Gary C.","contributorId":26256,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"White","given":"Gary","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461956,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Gutierrez, R. J.","contributorId":7647,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Gutierrez","given":"R.","email":"","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461953,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Hines, J.E. 0000-0001-5478-7230","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5478-7230","contributorId":36885,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hines","given":"J.E.","affiliations":[{"id":531,"text":"Patuxent Wildlife Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":461958,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7},{"text":"Nichols, J.D. 0000-0002-7631-2890","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-2890","contributorId":14332,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nichols","given":"J.D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461954,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":8},{"text":"Munton, T.E.","contributorId":18884,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Munton","given":"T.E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461955,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":9},{"text":"Shaw, D.W.H.","contributorId":57577,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Shaw","given":"D.W.H.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461961,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":10},{"text":"Keane, J.J.","contributorId":30729,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Keane","given":"J.J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461957,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":11},{"text":"Steger, G.N.","contributorId":92397,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Steger","given":"G.N.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461963,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":12},{"text":"McDonald, T. L.","contributorId":101211,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"McDonald","given":"T.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461964,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":13}]}} ,{"id":70037618,"text":"70037618 - 2010 - Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2017-11-27T12:59:42","indexId":"70037618","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1135,"text":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","onlineIssn":"1943-3573","printIssn":"0037-1106","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios","docAbstract":"We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Seismological Society of America","publisherLocation":"El Cerrito, CA","doi":"10.1785/0120090324","issn":"00371106","usgsCitation":"Aagaard, B.T., Graves, R.W., Schwartz, D.P., Ponce, D.A., and Graymer, R.W., 2010, Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 100, no. 6, p. 2927-2944, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090324.","productDescription":"17 p.","startPage":"2927","endPage":"2944","numberOfPages":"17","costCenters":[{"id":660,"text":"Western Mineral Resources Science Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":245896,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":217923,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090324"}],"country":"United States","volume":"100","issue":"6","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-12-06","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a2b6ce4b0c8380cd5b978","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Aagaard, Brad T. 0000-0002-8795-9833 baagaard@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8795-9833","contributorId":192869,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Aagaard","given":"Brad","email":"baagaard@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":461946,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Graves, Robert W. rwgraves@usgs.gov","contributorId":3149,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Graves","given":"Robert","email":"rwgraves@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":234,"text":"Earthquake Hazards Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":461945,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Schwartz, David P. 0000-0001-5193-9200 dschwartz@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5193-9200","contributorId":1940,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schwartz","given":"David","email":"dschwartz@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":461944,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Ponce, David A. 0000-0003-4785-7354 ponce@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4785-7354","contributorId":1049,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ponce","given":"David","email":"ponce@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":300,"text":"Geologic Hazards Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":461942,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Graymer, Russell W. 0000-0003-4910-5682 rgraymer@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4910-5682","contributorId":1052,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Graymer","given":"Russell","email":"rgraymer@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"W.","affiliations":[{"id":312,"text":"Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":461943,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70037617,"text":"70037617 - 2010 - Sedimentary basins reconnaissance using the magnetic Tilt-Depth method","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:00","indexId":"70037617","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1612,"text":"Exploration Geophysics","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Sedimentary basins reconnaissance using the magnetic Tilt-Depth method","docAbstract":"We compute the depth to the top of magnetic basement using the Tilt-Depth method from the best available magnetic anomaly grids covering the continental USA and Australia. For the USA, the Tilt-Depth estimates were compared with sediment thicknesses based on drilling data and show a correlation of 0.86 between the datasets. If random data were used then the correlation value goes to virtually zero. There is little to no lateral offset of the depth of basinal features although there is a tendency for the Tilt-Depth results to be slightly shallower than the drill depths. We also applied the Tilt-Depth method to a local-scale, relatively high-resolution aeromagnetic survey over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State. The Tilt-Depth method successfully identified a variety of important tectonic elements known from geological mapping. Of particular interest, the Tilt-Depth method illuminated deep (3km) contacts within the non-magnetic sedimentary core of the Olympic Mountains, where magnetic anomalies are subdued and low in amplitude. For Australia, the Tilt-Depth estimates also give a good correlation with known areas of shallow basement and sedimentary basins. Our estimates of basement depth are not restricted to regional analysis but work equally well at the micro scale (basin scale) with depth estimates agreeing well with drill hole and seismic data. We focus on the eastern Officer Basin as an example of basin scale studies and find a good level of agreement between previously-derived basin models. However, our study potentially reveals depocentres not previously mapped due to the sparse distribution of well data. This example thus shows the potential additional advantage of the method in geological interpretation. The success of this study suggests that the Tilt-Depth method is useful in estimating the depth to crystalline basement when appropriate quality aeromagnetic anomaly data are used (i.e. line spacing on the order of or less than the expected depth to basement). The method is especially valuable as a reconnaissance tool in regions where drillhole or seismic information are either scarce, lacking, or ambiguous.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Exploration Geophysics","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1071/EG10007","issn":"08123985","usgsCitation":"Salem, A., Williams, S., Samson, E., Fairhead, D., Ravat, D., and Blakely, R., 2010, Sedimentary basins reconnaissance using the magnetic Tilt-Depth method: Exploration Geophysics, v. 41, no. 3, p. 198-209, https://doi.org/10.1071/EG10007.","startPage":"198","endPage":"209","numberOfPages":"12","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":245881,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":217908,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1071/EG10007"}],"volume":"41","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2018-12-06","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505b8a15e4b08c986b317011","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Salem, A.","contributorId":47604,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Salem","given":"A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461937,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Williams, S.","contributorId":18514,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Williams","given":"S.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461936,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Samson, E.","contributorId":105569,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Samson","given":"E.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461940,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Fairhead, D.","contributorId":106352,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fairhead","given":"D.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461941,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Ravat, D.","contributorId":102971,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ravat","given":"D.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461939,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Blakely, R.J. 0000-0003-1701-5236","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1701-5236","contributorId":70755,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Blakely","given":"R.J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461938,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70037615,"text":"70037615 - 2010 - Response of Colorado river runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:04","indexId":"70037615","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3165,"text":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Response of Colorado river runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow","docAbstract":"The waters of the Colorado River serve 27 million people in seven states and two countries but are overallocated by more than 10% of the river's historical mean. Climate models project runoff losses of 7-20% from the basin in this century due to human-induced climate change. Recent work has shown however that by the late 1800s, decades prior to allocation of the river's runoff in the 1920s, a fivefold increase in dust loading from anthropogenically disturbed soils in the southwest United States was already decreasing snow albedo and shortening the duration of snow cover by several weeks. The degree to which this increase in radiative forcing by dust in snow has affected timing and magnitude of runoff from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is unknown. Hereweuse the Variable Infiltration Capacity model with postdisturbance and predisturbance impacts of dust on albedo to estimate the impact on runoff from the UCRB across 1916-2003. We find that peak runoff at Lees Ferry, Arizona has occurred on average 3 wk earlier under heavier dust loading and that increases in evapotranspiration from earlier exposure of vegetation and soils decreases annual runoff by more than 1.0 billion cubic meters or ???5% of the annual average. The potential to reduce dust loading through surface stabilization in the deserts and restore more persistent snow cover, slow runoff, and increase water resources in the UCRB may represent an important mitigation opportunity to reduce system management tensions and regional impacts of climate change.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1073/pnas.0913139107","issn":"00278424","usgsCitation":"Painter, T.H., Deems, J., Belnap, J., Hamlet, A., Landry, C.C., and Udall, B., 2010, Response of Colorado river runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, v. 107, no. 40, p. 17125-17130, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913139107.","startPage":"17125","endPage":"17130","numberOfPages":"6","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":499902,"rank":10000,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2951423","text":"External Repository"},{"id":218116,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913139107"},{"id":246098,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"107","issue":"40","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-09-20","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505aaa15e4b0c8380cd8612b","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Painter, T. H.","contributorId":98070,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Painter","given":"T.","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461931,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Deems, J.S.","contributorId":40835,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Deems","given":"J.S.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461929,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Belnap, J. 0000-0001-7471-2279","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7471-2279","contributorId":23872,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Belnap","given":"J.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461927,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Hamlet, A.F.","contributorId":81723,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hamlet","given":"A.F.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461930,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Landry, C. C.","contributorId":108352,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Landry","given":"C.","email":"","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461932,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Udall, B.","contributorId":32766,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Udall","given":"B.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461928,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70037614,"text":"70037614 - 2010 - Moisture and vegetation controls on decadal-scale accrual of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in restored grasslands","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:04","indexId":"70037614","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1837,"text":"Global Change Biology","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Moisture and vegetation controls on decadal-scale accrual of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in restored grasslands","docAbstract":"Revitalization of degraded landscapes may provide sinks for rising atmospheric CO2, especially in reconstructed prairies where substantial belowground productivity is coupled with large soil organic carbon (SOC) deficits after many decades of cultivation. The restoration process also provides opportunities to study the often-elusive factors that regulate soil processes. Although the precise mechanisms that govern the rate of SOC accrual are unclear, factors such as soil moisture or vegetation type may influence the net accrual rate by affecting the balance between organic matter inputs and decomposition. A resampling approach was used to assess the control that soil moisture and plant community type each exert on SOC and total nitrogen (TN) accumulation in restored grasslands. Five plots that varied in drainage were sampled at least four times over two decades to assess SOC, TN, and C4- and C3-derived C. We found that higher long-term soil moisture, characterized by low soil magnetic susceptibility, promoted SOC and TN accrual, with twice the SOC and three times the TN gain in seasonally saturated prairies compared with mesic prairies. Vegetation also influenced SOC and TN recovery, as accrual was faster in the prairies compared with C3-only grassland, and C4-derived C accrual correlated strongly to total SOC accrual but C3-C did not. High SOC accumulation at the surface (0-10 cm) combined with losses at depth (10-20 cm) suggested these soils are recovering the highly stratified profiles typical of remnant prairies. Our results suggest that local hydrology and plant community are critical drivers of SOC and TN recovery in restored grasslands. Because these factors and the way they affect SOC are susceptible to modification by climate change, we contend that predictions of the C-sequestration performance of restored grasslands must account for projected climatic changes on both soil moisture and the seasonal productivity of C4 and C3 plants. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Global Change Biology","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02114.x","issn":"13541013","usgsCitation":"O’Brien, S.L., Jastrow, J., Grimley, D., and Gonzalez-Meler, M., 2010, Moisture and vegetation controls on decadal-scale accrual of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in restored grasslands: Global Change Biology, v. 16, no. 9, p. 2573-2588, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02114.x.","startPage":"2573","endPage":"2588","numberOfPages":"16","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":218115,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02114.x"},{"id":246097,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"16","issue":"9","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a5ce8e4b0c8380cd70016","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"O’Brien, S. L.","contributorId":106737,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"O’Brien","given":"S.","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461926,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Jastrow, J.D.","contributorId":89730,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Jastrow","given":"J.D.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461924,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Grimley, D.A.","contributorId":18530,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Grimley","given":"D.A.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461923,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Gonzalez-Meler, M. A.","contributorId":93743,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gonzalez-Meler","given":"M. A.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461925,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70037610,"text":"70037610 - 2010 - A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-10-10T16:52:22","indexId":"70037610","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2006,"text":"Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium","docAbstract":"The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure scenarios based on site-specific knowledge. The model can also be used to facilitate site-specific regulation and to present generic comparisons to illustrate limitations imposed by ecosystem setting and inhabitants. Used optimally, the model provides a tool for framing a site-specific ecological problem or occurrence of Se exposure, quantify exposure within that ecosystem, and narrow uncertainties abouthowto protect it by understanding the specifics of the underlying system ecology, biogeochemistry, and hydrology.
","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry","doi":"10.1002/ieam.101","issn":"15513793","usgsCitation":"Presser, T.S., and Luoma, S.N., 2010, A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium: Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, v. 6, no. 4, p. 685-710, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.101.","productDescription":"26 p.","startPage":"685","endPage":"710","costCenters":[{"id":589,"text":"Toxic Substances Hydrology Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":218077,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ieam.101"},{"id":246058,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"6","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5059e460e4b0c8380cd46605","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Presser, Theresa S. 0000-0001-5643-0147 tpresser@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5643-0147","contributorId":2467,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Presser","given":"Theresa","email":"tpresser@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":461903,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Luoma, Samuel N. 0000-0001-5443-5091 snluoma@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5443-5091","contributorId":2287,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Luoma","given":"Samuel","email":"snluoma@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"N.","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":461902,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70037608,"text":"70037608 - 2010 - Simulation and analysis of conjunctive use with MODFLOW's farm process","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-09-18T10:19:23","indexId":"70037608","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1861,"text":"Ground Water","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Simulation and analysis of conjunctive use with MODFLOW's farm process","docAbstract":"The extension of MODFLOW onto the landscape with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates fully coupled simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow and runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. This allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within \" water-balance subregions\" comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Simulation of micro-agriculture in the Pajaro Valley and macro-agriculture in the Central Valley are used to demonstrate the utility of MF-FMP. For Pajaro Valley, the simulation of an aquifer storage and recovery system and related coastal water distribution system to supplant coastal pumpage was analyzed subject to climate variations and additional supplemental sources such as local runoff. For the Central Valley, analysis of conjunctive use from different hydrologic settings of northern and southern subregions shows how and when precipitation, surface water, and groundwater are important to conjunctive use. The examples show that through MF-FMP's ability to simulate natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrologic cycle, the distribution and dynamics of supply and demand can be analyzed, understood, and managed. This analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding them in the simulation and are difficult to estimate a priori. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association. No claim to original US government works.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Ground Water","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1111/j.1745-6584.2010.00730.x","issn":"0017467X","usgsCitation":"Hanson, R.T., Schmid, W., Faunt, C., and Lockwood, B., 2010, Simulation and analysis of conjunctive use with MODFLOW's farm process: Ground Water, v. 48, no. 5, p. 674-689, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2010.00730.x.","startPage":"674","endPage":"689","numberOfPages":"16","costCenters":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":218064,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2010.00730.x"},{"id":246044,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"48","issue":"5","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-06-22","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505b8fe4e4b08c986b3191d6","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Hanson, R. T.","contributorId":91148,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hanson","given":"R.","email":"","middleInitial":"T.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461895,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Schmid, W.","contributorId":103479,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Schmid","given":"W.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461897,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Faunt, C.C. 0000-0001-5659-7529","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5659-7529","contributorId":103314,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Faunt","given":"C.C.","affiliations":[{"id":595,"text":"U.S. Geological Survey","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":461896,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Lockwood, B.","contributorId":59660,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Lockwood","given":"B.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461894,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70044481,"text":"70044481 - 2010 - Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-04-30T11:18:00","indexId":"70044481","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3481,"text":"Stratigraphy","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons","docAbstract":"Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Stratigraphy","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Micropaleontology Press","usgsCitation":"Dowsett, H.J., Robinson, M.M., Foley, K.M., and Stoll, D.K., 2010, Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons: Stratigraphy, v. 7, no. 2-3, p. 189-198.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"189","endPage":"198","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-025169","costCenters":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":271645,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.micropress.org/micropen2/articles/1/6/16999_articles_article_file_1696.pdf"},{"id":271646,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"7","issue":"2-3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5180e7e7e4b0df838b924d6e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dowsett, Harry J. 0000-0003-1983-7524 hdowsett@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1983-7524","contributorId":949,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dowsett","given":"Harry","email":"hdowsett@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475699,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Robinson, Marci M. 0000-0002-9200-4097 mmrobinson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9200-4097","contributorId":2082,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Robinson","given":"Marci","email":"mmrobinson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475700,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Foley, Kevin M. 0000-0003-1013-462X kfoley@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1013-462X","contributorId":2543,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Foley","given":"Kevin","email":"kfoley@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475701,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Stoll, Danielle K.","contributorId":88236,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stoll","given":"Danielle","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475702,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70037605,"text":"70037605 - 2010 - Dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of environmental factors in Eastern Australia using functional principal component analysis","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:03","indexId":"70037605","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2196,"text":"Journal of Biological Systems","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of environmental factors in Eastern Australia using functional principal component analysis","docAbstract":"This paper introduces a new technique in ecology to analyze spatial and temporal variability in environmental variables. By using simple statistics, we explore the relations between abiotic and biotic variables that influence animal distributions. However, spatial and temporal variability in rainfall, a key variable in ecological studies, can cause difficulties to any basic model including time evolution. The study was of a landscape scale (three million square kilometers in eastern Australia), mainly over the period of 19982004. We simultaneously considered qualitative spatial (soil and habitat types) and quantitative temporal (rainfall) variables in a Geographical Information System environment. In addition to some techniques commonly used in ecology, we applied a new method, Functional Principal Component Analysis, which proved to be very suitable for this case, as it explained more than 97% of the total variance of the rainfall data, providing us with substitute variables that are easier to manage and are even able to explain rainfall patterns. The main variable came from a habitat classification that showed strong correlations with rainfall values and soil types. ?? 2010 World Scientific Publishing Company.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Biological Systems","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1142/S0218339010003500","issn":"02183390","usgsCitation":"Szabo, J., Fedriani, E., Segovia-Gonzalez, M.M., Astheimer, L., and Hooper, M., 2010, Dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of environmental factors in Eastern Australia using functional principal component analysis: Journal of Biological Systems, v. 18, no. 4, p. 763-785, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218339010003500.","startPage":"763","endPage":"785","numberOfPages":"23","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":218048,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0218339010003500"},{"id":246028,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"18","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2011-11-21","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505a042ce4b0c8380cd50826","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Szabo, J.K.","contributorId":38347,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Szabo","given":"J.K.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461879,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Fedriani, E.M.","contributorId":80126,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fedriani","given":"E.M.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461882,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Segovia-Gonzalez, M. M.","contributorId":74611,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Segovia-Gonzalez","given":"M.","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461881,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Astheimer, L.B.","contributorId":12723,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Astheimer","given":"L.B.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461878,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Hooper, M.J.","contributorId":70581,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hooper","given":"M.J.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461880,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70037604,"text":"70037604 - 2010 - Using noble gases measured in spring discharge to trace hydrothermal processes in the Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2012-03-12T17:22:06","indexId":"70037604","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2499,"text":"Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Using noble gases measured in spring discharge to trace hydrothermal processes in the Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.","docAbstract":"Dissolved noble gas concentrations in springs are used to investigate boiling of hydrothermal water and mixing of hydrothermal and shallow cool water in the Norris Geyser Basin area. Noble gas concentrations in water are modeled for single stage and continuous steam removal. Limitations on boiling using noble gas concentrations are then used to estimate the isotopic effect of boiling on hydrothermal water, allowing the isotopic composition of the parent hydrothermal water to be determined from that measured in spring. In neutral chloride springs of the Norris Geyser Basin, steam loss since the last addition of noble gas charged water is less than 30% of the total hydrothermal discharge, which results in an isotopic shift due to boiling of ?? 2.5% ??D. Noble gas concentrations in water rapidly and predictably change in dual phase systems, making them invaluable tracers of gas-liquid interaction in hydrothermal systems. By combining traditional tracers of hydrothermal flow such as deuterium with dissolved noble gas measurements, more complex hydrothermal processes can be interpreted. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","doi":"10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.09.020","issn":"03770273","usgsCitation":"Gardner, W., Susong, D., Solomon, D.K., and Heasler, H., 2010, Using noble gases measured in spring discharge to trace hydrothermal processes in the Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, v. 198, no. 3-4, p. 394-404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.09.020.","startPage":"394","endPage":"404","numberOfPages":"11","costCenters":[],"links":[{"id":218036,"rank":9999,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.09.020"},{"id":246013,"rank":0,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"198","issue":"3-4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"505bc082e4b08c986b32a177","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Gardner, W.P.","contributorId":93311,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Gardner","given":"W.P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461876,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Susong, D. D.","contributorId":12868,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Susong","given":"D. D.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461874,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Solomon, D. K.","contributorId":98324,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Solomon","given":"D.","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461877,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Heasler, H.P.","contributorId":21802,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Heasler","given":"H.P.","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":461875,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ]}