Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm−2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm−2) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm−2) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.
","language":"English","publisher":"AGU","doi":"10.1029/2010JG001428","usgsCitation":"Barnes, C., and Roy, D.P., 2010, Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, v. 115, no. G4, p. 1-14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001428.","productDescription":"G04033; 14 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"14","ipdsId":"IP-026946","costCenters":[{"id":222,"text":"Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":475847,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jg001428","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":339216,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"UNITED STATES","volume":"115","issue":"G4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-12-04","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"58e60274e4b09da6799ac68f","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Barnes, Christopher A. 0000-0002-4608-4364 christopher.barnes.ctr@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4608-4364","contributorId":178108,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Barnes","given":"Christopher A.","email":"christopher.barnes.ctr@usgs.gov","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":689471,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Roy, David P.","contributorId":71083,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Roy","given":"David","email":"","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":689472,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70042312,"text":"70042312 - 2010 - Intensity, magnitude, location and attenuation in India for felt earthquakes since 1762","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-01-14T15:45:57","indexId":"70042312","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1135,"text":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","onlineIssn":"1943-3573","printIssn":"0037-1106","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Intensity, magnitude, location and attenuation in India for felt earthquakes since 1762","docAbstract":"A comprehensive, consistently interpreted new catalog of felt intensities for India (Martin and Szeliga, 2010, this issue) includes intensities for 570 earthquakes; instrumental magnitudes and locations are available for 100 of these events. We use the intensity values for 29 of the instrumentally recorded events to develop new intensity versus attenuation relations for the Indian subcontinent and the Himalayan region. We then use these relations to determine the locations and magnitudes of 234 historical events, using the method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997). For the remaining 336 events, intensity distributions are too sparse to determine magnitude or location. We evaluate magnitude and location accuracy of newly located events by comparing the instrumental- with the intensity-derived location for 29 calibration events, for which more than 15 intensity observations are available. With few exceptions, most intensity-derived locations lie within a fault length of the instrumentally determined location. For events in which the azimuthal distribution of intensities is limited, we conclude that the formal error bounds from the regression of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) do not reflect the true uncertainties. We also find that the regression underestimates the uncertainties of the location and magnitude of the 1819 Allah Bund earthquake, for which a location has been inferred from mapped surface deformation. Comparing our inferred attenuation relations to those developed for other regions, we find that attenuation for Himalayan events is comparable to intensity attenuation in California (Bakun and Wentworth, 1997), while intensity attenuation for cratonic events is higher than intensity attenuation reported for central/eastern North America (Bakun et al., 2003). Further, we present evidence that intensities of intraplate earthquakes have a nonlinear dependence on magnitude such that attenuation relations based largely on small-to-moderate earthquakes may significantly overestimate the magnitudes of historical earthquakes.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Seismological Society of America","publisherLocation":"El Cerrito, CA","doi":"10.1785/0120080329","usgsCitation":"Szeliga, W., Hough, S., Martin, S., and Bilham, R.G., 2010, Intensity, magnitude, location and attenuation in India for felt earthquakes since 1762: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 100, no. 2, p. 570-584, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080329.","productDescription":"15 p.","startPage":"570","endPage":"584","ipdsId":"IP-014367","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":265697,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":265691,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120080329"}],"country":"India","volume":"100","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-03-15","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"50f53709e4b0114312ab0224","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Szeliga, Walter","contributorId":50021,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Szeliga","given":"Walter","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471255,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hough, Susan","contributorId":71816,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hough","given":"Susan","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":471256,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Martin, Stacey","contributorId":35165,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Martin","given":"Stacey","affiliations":[{"id":5110,"text":"Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":471253,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Bilham, Roger G. 0000-0002-5547-4102","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5547-4102","contributorId":48200,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bilham","given":"Roger","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[],"preferred":true,"id":471254,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70042495,"text":"70042495 - 2010 - On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-04-30T14:27:32","indexId":"70042495","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2314,"text":"Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake","docAbstract":"Most models of lower crust/mantle viscosity inferred from postearthquake relaxation assume one or two uniform-viscosity layers. A few existing models possess apparently significant radially variable viscosity structure in the shallow mantle (e.g., the upper 200 km), but the resolution of such variations is not clear. We use a geophysical inverse procedure to address the resolving power of inferred shallow mantle viscosity structure using postearthquake relaxation data. We apply this methodology to 9 years of GPS-constrained crustal motions after the 16 October 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. After application of a differencing method to isolate the postearthquake signal from the “background” crustal velocity field, we find that surface velocities diminish from ∼20 mm/yr in the first few months to ≲2 mm/yr after 2 years. Viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle, with a time-dependent effective viscosity prescribed by a Burgers body, provides a good explanation for the postseismic crustal deformation, capturing both the spatial and temporal pattern. In the context of the Burgers body model (which involves a transient viscosity and steady state viscosity), a resolution analysis based on the singular value decomposition reveals that at most, two constraints on depth-dependent steady state mantle viscosity are provided by the present data set. Uppermost mantle viscosity (depth ≲ 60 km) is moderately resolved, but deeper viscosity structure is poorly resolved. The simplest model that explains the data better than that of uniform steady state mantle viscosity involves a linear gradient in logarithmic viscosity with depth, with a small increase from the Moho to 220 km depth. However, the viscosity increase is not statistically significant. This suggests that the depth-dependent steady state viscosity is not resolvably different from uniformity in the uppermost mantle.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Wiley","doi":"10.1029/2010JB007405","usgsCitation":"Pollitz, F., and Thatcher, W.R., 2010, On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth, 20 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007405.","productDescription":"20 p.","numberOfPages":"20","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-019815","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":271680,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":271679,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007405"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -120.56,33.01 ], [ -120.56,37.00 ], [ -114.96,37.00 ], [ -114.96,33.01 ], [ -120.56,33.01 ] ] ] } } ] }","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-10-15","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5180e7e9e4b0df838b924d80","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Pollitz, Fred F. fpollitz@usgs.gov","contributorId":2408,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pollitz","given":"Fred F.","email":"fpollitz@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":471643,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Thatcher, Wayne R. 0000-0001-6324-545X thatcher@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-545X","contributorId":2599,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Thatcher","given":"Wayne","email":"thatcher@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":471644,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70044496,"text":"70044496 - 2010 - Mid-Piacenzian sea surface temperature record from ODP Site 1115 in the western equatorial Pacific","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-03-18T09:05:49","indexId":"70044496","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3481,"text":"Stratigraphy","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Mid-Piacenzian sea surface temperature record from ODP Site 1115 in the western equatorial Pacific","docAbstract":"Planktic foraminifer assemblages and alkenone unsaturation ratios have been analyzed for the mid-Piacen-zian (3.3 to 2.9 Ma) section of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1115B, located in the western equatorial Pacific off the coast of New Guinea. Cold and warm season sea surface temperature (SST) estimates were determined using a modern analog technique. ODP Site 1115 is located just south of the transition between the planktic foraminifer tropical and subtropical faunal provinces and approximates the southern boundary of the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) warm pool. Comparison of the faunal and alkenone SST estimates (presented here) with an existing nannofossil climate proxy shows similar trends. Results of this analysis show increased seasonal variability during the middle of the sampled section (3.22 to 3.10 Ma), suggesting a possible northward migration of both the subtropical faunal province and the southern boundary of the WEP warm pool.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Stratigraphy","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Micropaleontology Press","publisherLocation":"Flushing, NY","usgsCitation":"Stoll, D., 2010, Mid-Piacenzian sea surface temperature record from ODP Site 1115 in the western equatorial Pacific: Stratigraphy, v. 7, no. 1, p. 1-6.","productDescription":"6 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"6","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-017982","costCenters":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":269646,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":269645,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://www.micropress.org/stratigraphy/"}],"volume":"7","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51483796e4b022dd171afea2","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Stoll, Danielle","contributorId":34005,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stoll","given":"Danielle","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475728,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70044490,"text":"70044490 - 2010 - Modern climate challenges and the geological record","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-03-12T10:26:07","indexId":"70044490","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":741,"text":"American Paleontologist","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Modern climate challenges and the geological record","docAbstract":"Today's changing climate poses challenges about the influence of human activity, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes, the natural variability of Earth's climate, and complex feedback processes. Ice core and instrumental records show that over the last century, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have risen to 390 parts per million volume (ppmv), about 40% above pre-Industrial Age concentrations of 280 ppmv and nearly twice those of the last glacial maximum about 22,000 years ago. Similar historical increases are recorded in atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). There is general agreement that human activity is largely responsible for these trends. Substantial evidence also suggests that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations are responsible for much of the recent atmospheric and oceanic warming, rising sea level, declining Arctic sea-ice cover, retreating glaciers and small ice caps, decreased mass balance of the Greenland and parts of the Antarctic ice sheets, and decreasing ocean pH (ocean \"acidification\"). Elevated CO2 concentrations raise concern not only from observations of the climate system, but because feedbacks associated with reduced reflectivity from in land and sea ice, sea level, and land vegetation relatively slowly (centuries or longer) to elevated 2 levels. This means that additional human-induced climate change is expected even if the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced or concentrations immediately stabilized.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"American Paleontologist","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Paleontological Research Institution","publisherLocation":"Ithaca, NY","usgsCitation":"Cronin, T.M., 2010, Modern climate challenges and the geological record: American Paleontologist, v. 18, no. 1, p. 10-12.","productDescription":"3 p.","startPage":"10","endPage":"12","numberOfPages":"3","ipdsId":"IP-018652","costCenters":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":269127,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"18","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51404e83e4b089809dbf4498","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cronin, Thomas M. 0000-0002-2643-0979 tcronin@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2643-0979","contributorId":2579,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cronin","given":"Thomas","email":"tcronin@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475720,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1}]}} ,{"id":70044481,"text":"70044481 - 2010 - Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2013-04-30T11:18:00","indexId":"70044481","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3481,"text":"Stratigraphy","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons","docAbstract":"Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.","largerWorkType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"largerWorkTitle":"Stratigraphy","largerWorkSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"language":"English","publisher":"Micropaleontology Press","usgsCitation":"Dowsett, H.J., Robinson, M.M., Foley, K.M., and Stoll, D.K., 2010, Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons: Stratigraphy, v. 7, no. 2-3, p. 189-198.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"189","endPage":"198","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-025169","costCenters":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":271645,"type":{"id":11,"text":"Document"},"url":"https://www.micropress.org/micropen2/articles/1/6/16999_articles_article_file_1696.pdf"},{"id":271646,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"7","issue":"2-3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5180e7e7e4b0df838b924d6e","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Dowsett, Harry J. 0000-0003-1983-7524 hdowsett@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1983-7524","contributorId":949,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Dowsett","given":"Harry","email":"hdowsett@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"J.","affiliations":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475699,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Robinson, Marci M. 0000-0002-9200-4097 mmrobinson@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9200-4097","contributorId":2082,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Robinson","given":"Marci","email":"mmrobinson@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475700,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Foley, Kevin M. 0000-0003-1013-462X kfoley@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1013-462X","contributorId":2543,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Foley","given":"Kevin","email":"kfoley@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":40020,"text":"Florence Bascom Geoscience Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":243,"text":"Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":475701,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Stoll, Danielle K.","contributorId":88236,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Stoll","given":"Danielle","email":"","middleInitial":"K.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":475702,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70044163,"text":"70044163 - 2010 - Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2016-08-15T20:18:20","indexId":"70044163","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1547,"text":"Environmental Management","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change","docAbstract":"Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer","publisherLocation":"Amsterdam, Netherlands","doi":"10.1007/s00267-010-9427-0","usgsCitation":"Fagre, D.B., Pederson, G., Bengtson, L.E., Prato, T., Qui, Z., and Williams, J.R., 2010, Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change: Environmental Management, v. 45, no. 3, p. 577-589, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-010-9427-0.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"577","endPage":"589","numberOfPages":"13","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-013504","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":270128,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Montana","county":"Flathhead","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -115.0208,47.5998 ], [ -115.0208,49.0011 ], [ -112.8857,49.0011 ], [ -112.8857,47.5998 ], [ -115.0208,47.5998 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"45","issue":"3","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-01-28","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"5152c3b1e4b01197b08e9cee","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Fagre, Daniel B. 0000-0001-8552-9461 dan_fagre@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8552-9461","contributorId":2036,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fagre","given":"Daniel","email":"dan_fagre@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":474943,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Pederson, Gregory","contributorId":50058,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pederson","given":"Gregory","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474945,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Bengtson, Lindsey E.","contributorId":28497,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bengtson","given":"Lindsey","email":"","middleInitial":"E.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474944,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Prato, Tony","contributorId":97394,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Prato","given":"Tony","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474948,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Qui, Zeyuan","contributorId":66561,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Qui","given":"Zeyuan","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474946,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Williams, Jimmie R.","contributorId":89776,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Williams","given":"Jimmie","email":"","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474947,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70044102,"text":"70044102 - 2010 - Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2018-10-22T10:24:46","indexId":"70044102","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2980,"text":"PLoS ONE","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models","docAbstract":"The relationship between host density and parasite transmission is central to the effectiveness of many disease management strategies. Few studies, however, have empirically estimated this relationship particularly in large mammals. We applied hierarchical Bayesian methods to a 19-year dataset of over 6400 brucellosis tests of adult female elk (Cervus elaphus) in northwestern Wyoming. Management captures that occurred from January to March were over two times more likely to be seropositive than hunted elk that were killed in September to December, while accounting for site and year effects. Areas with supplemental feeding grounds for elk had higher seroprevalence in 1991 than other regions, but by 2009 many areas distant from the feeding grounds were of comparable seroprevalence. The increases in brucellosis seroprevalence were correlated with elk densities at the elk management unit, or hunt area, scale (mean 2070 km2; range = [95–10237]). The data, however, could not differentiate among linear and non-linear effects of host density. Therefore, control efforts that focus on reducing elk densities at a broad spatial scale were only weakly supported. Additional research on how a few, large groups within a region may be driving disease dynamics is needed for more targeted and effective management interventions. Brucellosis appears to be expanding its range into new regions and elk populations, which is likely to further complicate the United States brucellosis eradication program. This study is an example of how the dynamics of host populations can affect their ability to serve as disease reservoirs.","language":"English","publisher":"Public Library of Science","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0010322","usgsCitation":"Cross, P.C., Heisey, D.M., Scurlock, B.M., Edwards, W.H., Brennan, A., and Ebinger, M.R., 2010, Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models: PLoS ONE, v. 5, no. 4, p. 1-9, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010322.","productDescription":"e10322; 9 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"9","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-015864","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":34983,"text":"Contaminant Biology Program","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488145,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010322","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":268747,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"},{"id":268742,"type":{"id":10,"text":"Digital Object Identifier"},"url":"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010322"}],"country":"United States","state":"Wyoming","geographicExtents":"{ \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\", \"features\": [ { \"type\": \"Feature\", \"properties\": {}, \"geometry\": { \"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [ [ [ -111.01,40.91 ], [ -111.01,44.87 ], [ -108.04,44.87 ], [ -108.04,40.91 ], [ -111.01,40.91 ] ] ] } } ] }","volume":"5","issue":"4","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2010-04-23","publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"51372205e4b02ab8869bffe8","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Cross, Paul C. 0000-0001-8045-5213 pcross@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8045-5213","contributorId":2709,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Cross","given":"Paul","email":"pcross@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"C.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":474813,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Heisey, Dennis M. dheisey@usgs.gov","contributorId":2455,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Heisey","given":"Dennis","email":"dheisey@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":456,"text":"National Wildlife Health Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":474812,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Scurlock, Brandon M.","contributorId":93788,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Scurlock","given":"Brandon","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[{"id":6917,"text":"Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Laramie, USA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":474817,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Edwards, William H.","contributorId":9144,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Edwards","given":"William","email":"","middleInitial":"H.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474815,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Brennan, Angela","contributorId":40871,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Brennan","given":"Angela","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":474816,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Ebinger, Michael R. mebinger@usgs.gov","contributorId":5771,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Ebinger","given":"Michael","email":"mebinger@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":474814,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70043939,"text":"70043939 - 2010 - Introduction: Tagging, telemetry, and marking compendium project","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2022-12-27T14:58:57.819871","indexId":"70043939","displayToPublicDate":"2010-01-01T00:00:00","publicationYear":"2010","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":3,"text":"Organization Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":205,"text":"PNAMP Report Series","active":false,"publicationSubtype":{"id":3}},"seriesNumber":"2010-002","chapter":"1","title":"Introduction: Tagging, telemetry, and marking compendium project","docAbstract":"Goal and Objectives of the Compendium
\nThe goal of this compendium is to integrate profiles of on-going, individual, disparate efforts implementing the science of tagging, telemetry, and marking (TTM) into a compilation of experience to inform the development of fish population monitoring. This is accomplished by meeting the following objectives:
\n• Provide the region with information and peer reviewed analyses to facilitate optimization of the use of TTM technology and designs in a comparable and consistent manner.
\n• Provide findings that are organized, peer reviewed, and communicated widely.
\n• Increase the opportunity for data collection to provide more reliable information and result in improved analyses and higher confidence in data analyses for making informed and more relevant decisions.
","largerWorkTitle":"Tagging, telemetry, and marking measures for monitoring fish populations: A compendium of new and recent science for use in informing technique and decision modalities","language":"English","publisher":"Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership","publisherLocation":"Seattle, WA","usgsCitation":"Wolf, K.S., and Waste, S., 2010, Introduction: Tagging, telemetry, and marking compendium project: PNAMP Report Series 2010-002, 4 p.","productDescription":"4 p.","startPage":"1","endPage":"4","numberOfPages":"4","onlineOnly":"N","additionalOnlineFiles":"N","ipdsId":"IP-018295","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":307458,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","scienceBaseUri":"55dd91b9e4b0518e354dd196","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Wolf, Keith S.","contributorId":177730,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Wolf","given":"Keith","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":516963,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Waste, Stephen M. swaste@usgs.gov","contributorId":3837,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Waste","given":"Stephen M.","email":"swaste@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":595,"text":"U.S. Geological Survey","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":false,"id":569840,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ]}