In stream systems, disentangling relationships between biology and flow and subsequent prediction of these relationships to unsampled streams is a common objective of large-scale ecological modeling. Often, streamflow metrics are derived from aggregating continuous streamflow records available at a subset of stream gages into long-term flow regime descriptors. Despite demonstrated value, shortcomings of these long-term approaches include spatial restriction to locations with long-term continuous flow records (commonly, biased toward larger systems) and omission of potentially ecologically important short-term (i.e., ≤1 year) antecedent streamflow information. We used long-term flow regime and short-term antecedent streamflow alteration information to evaluate relative performance in modeling stream fish biological condition. We compared results to understand whether short-term antecedent streamflow information improved models of fish biological condition. Results indicated that models incorporating short-term antecedent data performed better than those relying solely on long-term flow regime data (kappa statistic = 0.29 and 0.23, respectively) and improved prediction accuracy among stream sizes and in six of nine ecoregions. Additionally, models relying solely on short-term streamflow information performed similarly to those with only long-term streamflow information (kappa = 0.23). Incorporating short-term antecedent streamflow metrics may provide added ecological information not fully captured by long-term flow regime summaries in macroscale modeling efforts or perform similarly to long-term streamflow data when long-term data are not available.
Preferential flow in the unsaturated zone strongly influences important hydrologic processes, such as infiltration, contaminant transport, and aquifer recharge. Because it entails various combinations of physical processes arising from the interactions of water, air, and solid particles in a porous medium, preferential flow is highly complex. Major research is needed to improve the ability to understand, quantify, model, and predict preferential flow. Toward a solution, a combination of diverse experimental measurements at multiple scales, from laboratory scale to mesoscale, has been implemented to detect and quantify preferential paths in carbonate and karstic unsaturated zones. This involves integration of information from (1) core samples, by means of mercury intrusion porosimeter, evaporation, quasi-steady centrifuge and dewpoint potentiometer laboratory methods, to investigate the effect of pore-size distribution on hydraulic characteristics and the potential activation of preferential flow, (2) field plot experiments with artificial sprinkling, to visualize preferential pathways related to secondary porosity, through use of geophysical measurements, and (3) mesoscale evaluation of field data through episodic master recession modeling of episodic recharge. This study demonstrates that preferential flow processes operate from core scale to two different field scales and impact on the qualitative and quantitative groundwater status, by entailing fast flow with subsequent effects on recharge rate and contaminant mobilizing. The presented results represent a rare example of preferential flow detection and numerical modeling by reducing underestimation of the recharge and contamination risks.
","language":"English","publisher":"Springer Nature","doi":"10.1007/s10040-023-02733-3","usgsCitation":"Caputo, M.C., De Carlo, L., Masciale, R., Perkins, K., Turturro, A., and Nimmo, J.R., 2024, Detection and quantification of preferential flow using artificial rainfall with multiple experimental approaches: Hydrogeology Journal, v. 32, p. 467-485, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-023-02733-3.","productDescription":"19 p.","startPage":"467","endPage":"485","ipdsId":"IP-154640","costCenters":[{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":488207,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-023-02733-3","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":484496,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"Italy","city":"Bari","otherGeospatial":"Apulia Region","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n 16.69243585627035,\n 41.22008353121049\n ],\n [\n 16.723263851427802,\n 41.048118236977714\n ],\n [\n 17.078664904300638,\n 40.82955430051331\n ],\n [\n 18.547099758451623,\n 40.035404755129974\n ],\n [\n 18.558702660409736,\n 40.23218241073464\n ],\n [\n 18.044813946689686,\n 40.80608860459688\n ],\n [\n 16.69243585627035,\n 41.22008353121049\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"32","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Caputo, Maria Clementina","contributorId":298645,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Caputo","given":"Maria","email":"","middleInitial":"Clementina","affiliations":[{"id":64641,"text":"CNR-IRSA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":932984,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"De Carlo, Lorenzo","contributorId":298644,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"De Carlo","given":"Lorenzo","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":64641,"text":"CNR-IRSA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":932985,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Masciale, Rita","contributorId":353110,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Masciale","given":"Rita","affiliations":[{"id":64641,"text":"CNR-IRSA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":932986,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Perkins, Kimberlie 0000-0001-8349-447X kperkins@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8349-447X","contributorId":138544,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Perkins","given":"Kimberlie","email":"kperkins@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":932987,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Turturro, Antonietta Celeste","contributorId":353112,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Turturro","given":"Antonietta Celeste","affiliations":[{"id":64641,"text":"CNR-IRSA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":932988,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Nimmo, John R. 0000-0001-8191-1727 jrnimmo@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8191-1727","contributorId":757,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Nimmo","given":"John","email":"jrnimmo@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - Western Branch","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37277,"text":"WMA - Earth System Processes Division","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":932989,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70253099,"text":"70253099 - 2024 - Evidence of Seattle Fault earthquakes from patterns of deep-seated landslides","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-04-19T11:46:05.821429","indexId":"70253099","displayToPublicDate":"2023-11-07T06:43:35","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1135,"text":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","onlineIssn":"1943-3573","printIssn":"0037-1106","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Evidence of Seattle Fault earthquakes from patterns of deep-seated landslides","docAbstract":"Earthquake‐induced landslides can record information about the seismic shaking that generated them. In this study, we present new mapping, Light Detection and Ranging‐derived roughness dating, and analysis of over 1000 deep‐seated landslides from the Puget Lowlands of Washington, U.S.A., to probe the landscape for past Seattle fault earthquake information. With this new landslide inventory, we observe spatial and temporal evidence of landsliding related to the last major earthquake on the Seattle fault ∼1100 yr before present. We find spatial clusters of landslides that correlate with ground motions from recent 3D kinematic models of Seattle fault earthquakes. We also find temporal patterns in the landslide inventory that suggest earthquake‐driven increases in landsliding. We compare the spatial and temporal landslide data with scenario‐based ground motion models and find stronger evidence of the last major Seattle fault earthquake from this combined analysis than from spatial or temporal patterns alone. We also compare the landslide inventory with ground motions from different Seattle fault earthquake scenarios to determine the ground motion distributions that are most consistent with the landslide record. We find that earthquake scenarios that best match the clustering of ∼1100‐year‐old landslides produce the strongest shaking within a band that stretches from west to east across central Seattle as well as along the bluffs bordering the broader Puget Sound. Finally, we identify other landslide clusters (at 4.6–4.2 ka, 4.0–3.8 ka, 2.8–2.6 ka, and 2.2–2.0 ka) in the inventory which let us infer potential ground motions that may correspond to older Seattle fault earthquakes. Our method, which combines hindcasting of the surface response to the last major Seattle fault earthquake, using a roughness‐aged landslide inventory with forecasts of modeled ground shaking from 3D seismic scenarios, showcases a powerful new approach to gleaning paleoseismic information from landscapes.
In 2001 and 2002, 52 elk (Cervus canadensis; 21 males, 31 females), originally obtained from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, were transported and released into Cataloochee Valley in the northeastern portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM, Park), North Carolina, USA. The annual population growth rate (λ) was negative (0.996, 95% CI = 0.945–1.047) and predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) on elk calves was identified as an important determinant of population growth. From 2006 to 2008, 49 bears from the primary elk calving area (i.e., Cataloochee Valley) were trapped and translocated about 70 km to the southwestern portion of the Park just prior to elk calving. Per capita recruitment (i.e., the number of calves produced per adult female that survive to 1 year of age) increased from 0.306 prior to bear translocation (2001–2005) to 0.544 during years when bears were translocated (2006–2008) and λ increased to 1.118 (95% CI = 1.096–1.140). Our objective was to determine whether per capita calf recruitment rates after bear removal (2009–2019) at Cataloochee were similar to the higher rates estimated during bear removal (i.e., long-term response) or if they returned to rates before bear removal (i.e., short-term response), and how those rates compared with recruitment from portions of our study area where bears were not relocated. We documented 419 potential elk calving events and monitored 129 yearling and adult elk from 2001 to 2019. Known-fate models based on radio-telemetry and observational data supported calf recruitment returning to pre-2006 levels at Cataloochee (short-term response); recruitment of Cataloochee elk before and after bear relocation was lower (0.184) than during bear relocation (0.492). Recruitment rates of elk outside the removal area during the bear relocation period (0.478) were similar to before and after rates (0.420). In the Cataloochee Valley, cause-specific annual calf mortality rates due to predation by bears were 0.319 before, 0.120 during, and 0.306 after bear relocation. In contrast, the cause-specific annual mortality rate of calves in areas where bears were not relocated was 0.033 after the bear relocation period, with no bear predation on calves before or during bear relocation. The mean annual population growth rate for all monitored elk was 1.062 (95% CI = 0.979–1.140) after bear relocation based on the recruitment and survival data. Even though the effects of bear removal were temporary, the relocations were effective in achieving a short-term increase in elk recruitment, which was important for the reintroduction program given that the elk population was small and vulnerable to extirpation.
","language":"English","publisher":"The Wildlife Society","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.22522","usgsCitation":"Yarkovich, J.G., Braunstein, J.L., Mullinax, J.M., and Clark, J.D., 2024, No long-term effect of black bear removal on elk calf recruitment in the southern Appalachians: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 88, e22522, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22522.","productDescription":"e22522, 19 p.","ipdsId":"IP-151115","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":441068,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22522","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":432859,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"North Carolina","otherGeospatial":"Great Smoky Mountains National Park","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -83.39446616307593,\n 35.34908542134272\n ],\n [\n -83.0636158648346,\n 35.47482669066018\n ],\n [\n -82.86476283583953,\n 35.658891970547856\n ],\n [\n -83.0207596085856,\n 35.74798343179633\n ],\n [\n -83.14761412708188,\n 35.64914155318964\n ],\n [\n -83.38589491182597,\n 35.51530150997276\n ],\n [\n -83.54360593482207,\n 35.45388343943314\n ],\n [\n -83.44760792082488,\n 35.32251496983187\n ],\n [\n -83.39446616307593,\n 35.34908542134272\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"88","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Yarkovich, Joseph G.","contributorId":244820,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Yarkovich","given":"Joseph","email":"","middleInitial":"G.","affiliations":[{"id":36189,"text":"National Park Service","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":910494,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Braunstein, Jessica L.","contributorId":342231,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Braunstein","given":"Jessica","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":12716,"text":"University of Tennessee","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":910495,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Mullinax, Jennifer M.","contributorId":221170,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Mullinax","given":"Jennifer","email":"","middleInitial":"M.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":910496,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Clark, Joseph D. 0000-0002-8547-8112 jclark1@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8547-8112","contributorId":2265,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Clark","given":"Joseph","email":"jclark1@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":365,"text":"Leetown Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":910497,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70251432,"text":"70251432 - 2024 - Biocrusts modulate carbon losses under warming across global drylands: A bayesian meta-analysis","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-02-10T13:59:33.675702","indexId":"70251432","displayToPublicDate":"2023-11-04T07:57:39","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":17154,"text":"Soil Biology and Biogeochemistry","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Biocrusts modulate carbon losses under warming across global drylands: A bayesian meta-analysis","docAbstract":"Biocrusts are critical biological components of drylands and play an important role in soil carbon (C) cycling. However, the effect of biocrusts on soil CO2 exchange across global gradients of temperature and moisture is poorly understood. Moreover, their response to climate change remains highly uncertain. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analyses were performed on 47 published studies to quantify the impact of biocrusts on net soil exchange (NSE) of carbon- the difference between respiration and photosynthesis. Meta-analyses were also used on 23 studies to examine the effects of experimental warming on NSE in biocrusts. Meta-regressions further explored the thermal and wetness sensitivities of biocrust NSE and potential adaptation of biocrust responses to climate change. The development of biocrusts in dryland soils significantly increased NSE by 66.5 [22.2, 112.2] g C m−2yr−1, despite seasonal fluctuations, indicating a net loss of carbon to the atmosphere. Experimental warming, on average, increased biocrust NSE by 22.9 [-0.1, 40.8] g C m−2yr−1 per °C. However, across the spatial climate gradient, aridity limited the effects of warming, while high temperature decreased the thermal sensitivity of biocrust NSE, thus supporting the thermal adaptation of biocrusts. These results emphasize the critical role of biocrusts in modulating soil carbon exchange in response to climate warming across drylands, with particularly high thermal sensitivity in cool and moist regions. This highlights the need to incorporate biocrusts into global carbon budgets and models for a comprehensive understanding of their impact on the carbon cycle.
Nutrients acquired by ducks on spring migratory stopover areas influence survival and subsequent reproduction. Accordingly, wetland loss and degradation on stopover areas can lead to reduced refueling efficiency and have demographic consequences. Lipid metabolite concentrations in blood provide a useful index of daily mass change in wild birds and can be used to make inferences about quality of stopover areas for refueling. We experimentally validated a model that uses lipid metabolites to predict daily mass change, and then we used those predictions to make inferences about foraging habitat quality for Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) at important stopover sites of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, USA. We measured plasma lipid metabolites and daily mass change of 60 wild Canvasbacks held in short-term captivity and subjected to feeding and fasting treatments. Respectively, triglyceride and β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations were positively and negatively related to mass change (R2 = 0.58). On average, Canvasbacks collected experimentally across our study area had positive index values indicating sufficient forage resources to allow energy acquisition. However, predicted daily mass increases were greater at more northerly pools of the Mississippi River (Pools 7–8 and 13) compared to more southerly locations (Pool 19 of the Mississippi River and the Illinois River Valley), which was likely due, in part, to more abundant submerged aquatic vegetation at more northerly pools. Our results affirm that lipid metabolites are useful predictors of daily mass change that in turn can provide inferences about habitat quality. Lower daily mass increases of Canvasbacks at Pool 19 are concerning because that area is considered a critically important spring stopover area for migratory diving ducks. Considering the challenges of managing large rivers for multiple uses, targeting restoration of wetlands isolated or isolatable from river systems could provide stopover areas with necessary forage for optimal mass gain.
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Christopher","contributorId":334063,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Jacques","given":"Christopher","affiliations":[{"id":49637,"text":"Western Illinois University","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":894623,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6}]}} ,{"id":70250851,"text":"70250851 - 2024 - Permethrin contamination of sawgrass marshes and potential risk for the imperiled Klot’s skipper butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-01-25T14:58:18.304756","indexId":"70250851","displayToPublicDate":"2023-11-03T10:52:55","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":1571,"text":"Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Permethrin contamination of sawgrass marshes and potential risk for the imperiled Klot’s skipper butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi)","title":"Permethrin contamination of sawgrass marshes and potential risk for the imperiled Klot’s skipper butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi)","docAbstract":"Nontarget effects from mosquito control operations are possible in habitats adjacent to areas targeted by ultra-low-volume (ULV) sprays of permethrin for adult mosquito control. We assessed the risks of permethrin exposure to butterflies, particularly the imperiled Klot's skipper, when exposed to ground-based ULV sprays. Samples of larval host plant leaves (sawgrass) were collected in June (in mosquito season) and January (outside mosquito season) of 2015 from sawgrass marsh habitats of the National Key Deer Wildlife Refuge (Big Pine Key, FL, USA) and analyzed for permethrin. Permethrin detection was higher in June (detected on 70% of samples) than in January (30%), and concentrations were significantly higher in June (geomean = 2.1 ng/g, median = 2.4) relative to January (0.4 ng/g, median = 0.2). Dietary risk for 4th to 5th-instar larvae was low based on the measured residues. The AGricultural DISPersal model (Ver. 8.26) was used to estimate permethrin residues on sawgrass following ULV sprays (deposited residues) to estimate immediate postspray risk. Estimated deposited residues (33–543 ng/g) were much higher than measured residues, which leads to a higher risk likelihood for butterfly larvae immediately after ULV sprays. The difference between estimated and measured residues, and between the two risk estimations, reflects uncertainty in risk estimates based on the measured residues. Research on modeling deposited pesticide residues following ground-based ULV spray is limited. More research on estimating deposited pesticide residues from truck-mounted ULV sprayers could help reduce uncertainty in the risk predictions for nontarget insects like butterflies.
","language":"English","publisher":"Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry","doi":"10.1002/etc.5783","usgsCitation":"Bargar, T., and Hladik, M.L., 2024, Permethrin contamination of sawgrass marshes and potential risk for the imperiled Klot’s skipper butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi): Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, v. 43, no. 2, p. 267-278, https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5783.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"267","endPage":"278","ipdsId":"IP-141093","costCenters":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":441078,"rank":3,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5783","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":435093,"rank":2,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P9H67E0S","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Permethrin concentrations on sawgrass collected from National Key Deer Refuge in 2015"},{"id":424285,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Florida","otherGeospatial":"Big Pine, Cudjoe, Ramrod, and Sugarloaf, Torch Keys","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -81.33461718466356,\n 24.79227466575655\n ],\n [\n -81.51403842051512,\n 24.73981867577602\n ],\n [\n -81.57174541954949,\n 24.688127172265084\n ],\n [\n -81.54166847308747,\n 24.610424421743517\n ],\n [\n -81.30965306909073,\n 24.621904036517194\n ],\n [\n -81.33461718466356,\n 24.79227466575655\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"43","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Bargar, Timothy 0000-0001-8588-3436","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8588-3436","contributorId":221918,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Bargar","given":"Timothy","affiliations":[{"id":17705,"text":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":891792,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hladik, Michelle L. 0000-0002-0891-2712","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0891-2712","contributorId":203857,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hladik","given":"Michelle","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[{"id":154,"text":"California Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":891793,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2}]}} ,{"id":70249890,"text":"70249890 - 2024 - Improved computational methods for probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2023-11-04T13:43:45.070558","indexId":"70249890","displayToPublicDate":"2023-11-03T08:42:58","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3418,"text":"Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Improved computational methods for probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis","docAbstract":"Current procedures for analysis of and design against liquefaction hazards focus primarily on the use of probabilistic ground motions at a single ground-shaking hazard level, with the cyclic loading represented by a peak ground acceleration (PGA) corresponding to a target return period and a single representative moment magnitude Mw. These parameters are typically used in conjunction with deterministic simplified procedures for estimating liquefaction triggering and consequences that largely neglect the considerable uncertainties inherent to liquefaction problems. Motivated by these limitations and the resulting inconsistencies in liquefaction design levels, early methods for probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis (PLHA) were proposed that incorporate the full ground motion hazard space, integrated with probabilistic liquefaction triggering models. Such methods provide liquefaction factor of safety (FSL) hazard curves for standard penetration test (SPT) data. Recognizing the increased use of higher-resolution cone penetrometer test (CPT) data in engineering analysis and design and the potential computational challenges it presents, an expanded suite of probabilistic triggering models, and wider availability of more detailed seismic hazard data, an improved PLHA computational methodology is presented in this study. The methods described utilize the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model directly through web services to obtain PGA hazard and disaggregation calculations for any site and average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the site (Vs30) in the conterminous United States, to reconstruct the PGA hazard space for use in PLHA calculations, and to employ array calculations for efficient liquefaction hazard curve estimates for the thousands of CPT measurements in a given profile. The framework presented here is modular in nature, and discussion on the use of alternative models and extension to probabilistic liquefaction consequence evaluation is presented. The importance of appropriate representation of probabilistic liquefaction model uncertainties is also highlighted, along with the impacts of different levels of uncertainty on the PLHA calculation. Finally, a potential roadmap for incorporation of the PLHA framework in seismic provisions is presented, with an illustration of how it can address current limitations and impacts in liquefaction hazard analysis and design.
We evaluate the potential performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for M 9 megathrust earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) using synthetic seismograms from 30 simulated M 9 earthquake scenarios on the Cascadia subduction zone. The timeliness and accuracy of source estimates and effectiveness of ShakeAlert alert contours are evaluated with a station‐based alert classification scheme using an alert threshold equal to the target threshold. We develop a population‐based alert classification method by aligning a population grid with Voronoi diagrams computed from the station locations for each scenario. Using raster statistics, we estimate the PNW population that would receive timely accurate alerts during an offshore M 9 earthquake. We also examine the range of expected warning times with respect to the spatial distribution of the population. Results show that most of the population in our evaluation region could receive alerts with positive warning times for an alert threshold of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) III, but that late and missed alerts increase because the alert threshold is increased. An average of just under 60% of the population would be alerted for MMI V prior to the arrival of threshold level shaking. Large regions of late and missed alerts for thresholds MMI IV and V are caused by delays in alert updates, inaccurate FinDer source estimates, and undersized alert contours due to magnitude underestimation. We also investigate an alerting strategy where ShakeAlert sends out an alert to the entire evaluation region when the system detects at least an M 8 earthquake along the coast. Because large magnitude offshore earthquakes are rare in Cascadia, overalerting is most likely to occur from an overestimated M 7+ on the Gorda plate. With appropriate criteria to minimize overalerting, this strategy may eliminate all missed and late alerts except at sites close to the epicenter.
","language":"English","publisher":"Seismological Society of America","doi":"10.1785/0120230055","usgsCitation":"Thompson, M., Hartog, J.R., and Wirth, E.A., 2024, A population-based performance evaluation of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for M 9 megathrust earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A.: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 114, no. 2, p. 1103-1123, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230055.","productDescription":"21 p.","startPage":"1103","endPage":"1123","ipdsId":"IP-151213","costCenters":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":482032,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California, Oregon, Washington","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -120.30115682647909,\n 49.02650372461315\n ],\n [\n -124.96091935412448,\n 49.02650372461315\n ],\n [\n -124.96091935412448,\n 38.79852793406258\n ],\n [\n -120.30115682647909,\n 38.79852793406258\n ],\n [\n -120.30115682647909,\n 49.02650372461315\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"114","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Thompson, Mika","contributorId":245851,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Thompson","given":"Mika","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":6934,"text":"University of Washington","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":927322,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hartog, J. Renate","contributorId":171724,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Hartog","given":"J.","email":"","middleInitial":"Renate","affiliations":[{"id":6934,"text":"University of Washington","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":927323,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Wirth, Erin A. 0000-0002-8592-4442","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8592-4442","contributorId":207853,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Wirth","given":"Erin","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":237,"text":"Earthquake Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":927324,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70261052,"text":"70261052 - 2024 - Effects of auto-adaptive localization on a model calibration using ensemble methods","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-11-21T14:00:16.027811","indexId":"70261052","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-28T08:59:02","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":3825,"text":"Groundwater","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Effects of auto-adaptive localization on a model calibration using ensemble methods","docAbstract":"Simulations of the natural systems for environmental decision-making typically benefit from a highly parameterized approach (Hunt et al. 2007; Doherty and Hunt 2010), which enhances the flow of information contained in state observations to the parameters and improves application to decision support. However, parameter estimation (PE) with highly parameterized environmental models using traditional approaches (e.g., Doherty and Hunt 2010) is computationally intensive. Attempts at addressing the computational burden include improved computing approaches (e.g., Schreüder 2009; Hunt et al. 2010) and advances in algorithmic approaches (e.g., Tonkin and Doherty 2005; Welter et al. 2012, 2015). Recently, the iterative ensemble smoother (IES) approach (Chen and Oliver 2013; White 2018; White et al. 2020a) has greatly improved the efficiency of the PE calibration process compared to previous algorithms while concurrently providing nonlinear estimates of uncertainty (Hunt et al. 2021).
","language":"English","publisher":"National Groundwater Association","doi":"10.1111/gwat.13368","usgsCitation":"Traylor, J.P., Hunt, R., White, J., and Fienen, M., 2024, Effects of auto-adaptive localization on a model calibration using ensemble methods: Groundwater, v. 2, no. 1, p. 140-149, https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.13368.","productDescription":"10 p.","startPage":"140","endPage":"149","ipdsId":"IP-149273","costCenters":[{"id":464,"text":"Nebraska Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":467050,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.13368","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":464388,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"2","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Traylor, Jonathan P. 0000-0002-2008-1923 jtraylor@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2008-1923","contributorId":5322,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Traylor","given":"Jonathan","email":"jtraylor@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"P.","affiliations":[{"id":464,"text":"Nebraska Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":919034,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Hunt, Randall J. 0000-0001-6465-9304","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6465-9304","contributorId":16118,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Hunt","given":"Randall J.","affiliations":[{"id":677,"text":"Wisconsin Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":37947,"text":"Upper Midwest Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":919035,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"White, Jeremy","contributorId":260166,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"White","given":"Jeremy","affiliations":[{"id":52529,"text":"Interra","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":919036,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Fienen, Michael N. 0000-0002-7756-4651","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7756-4651","contributorId":245632,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Fienen","given":"Michael N.","affiliations":[{"id":474,"text":"New York Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":919037,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4}]}} ,{"id":70250286,"text":"70250286 - 2024 - Mountain glaciers influence biogeochemical and ecological characteristics of high-elevation lakes across the northern Rocky Mountains, USA","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-01-24T17:56:28.082975","indexId":"70250286","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-27T07:20:37","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2620,"text":"Limnology and Oceanography","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Mountain glaciers influence biogeochemical and ecological characteristics of high-elevation lakes across the northern Rocky Mountains, USA","docAbstract":"Mountain glaciers are retreating rapidly due to climate change, leading to the formation of downstream lakes. However, little is known about the physical and biogeochemical conditions in these lakes across a range of glacial influence. We surveyed alpine lakes fed by both glacial and snowpack meltwaters and those fed by snowpack alone to compare nutrient concentrations, stoichiometry, water clarity, chlorophyll, and zooplankton communities. Total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus were two times higher in glacial lakes than in non-glacial lakes, while nitrate concentrations were three times higher. However, organic carbon concentrations in glacial lakes were two times lower than in non-glacial lakes. The carbon-to-phosphorus ratio and the nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratio of lake seston increased with water clarity in glacial lakes, suggesting that turbidity from glacial flour increases light limitation and increases stoichiometric food quality for zooplankton in newly formed lakes. However, chlorophyll a concentrations did not differ between lake types. Through structural equation modeling, we found that glaciers exhibit a bidirectional association with nitrate and TP concentrations, perhaps mediated through landscape vegetation and lake clarity. Zooplankton communities in high-turbidity glacial lakes were largely composed of cyclopoid copepods and rotifers (i.e., non-filter feeders), while non-glacial lakes tended to be dominated by calanoid copepods and cladocerans (i.e., filter feeders). Our results show that glacier-influenced lakes have biogeochemical and ecological characteristics distinct from snow-fed mountain lakes. Sustained studies are needed to assess the dynamics of these unique features as the influence of the alpine cryosphere fades under ongoing climate change.
An agricultural water use package has been developed for MODFLOW 6 using the MODFLOW Application Programming Interface (API). The MODFLOW API Agricultural Water Use Package (API-Ag) was based on the approach to simulate irrigation demand in the MODFLOW-NWT and GSFLOW Agricultural Water Use (AG) Package. The API-Ag Package differs from the previous approach by implementing new features and support for additional irrigation providers. New features include representation of deficit and over-irrigation, Multi-Aquifer Well and Lake Package irrigation providers, and support for structured, vertex, and unstructured grid models. Three example problems are presented that demonstrate how the API-Ag Package improves representation of highly managed systems and are further used to validate the irrigation demand and delivery formulations. Irrigation volumes simulated in the three example problems show excellent agreement with the MODFLOW-NWT AG Package.
Potential acute and chronic human health effects associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins, including respiratory symptoms, are an understudied public health concern. We examined the relationship between estimated cyanobacteria biomass and the frequency of respiratory-related hospital visits for residents living near Green Bay, Lake Michigan, Wisconsin during 2017–2019. Remote sensing data from the Cyanobacteria Assessment Network was used to approximate cyanobacteria exposure through creation of a metric for cyanobacteria chlorophyll-a (ChlBS). We obtained counts of hospital visits for asthma, wheezing, and allergic rhinitis from the Wisconsin Hospital Association for ZIP codes within a 3-mile radius of Green Bay. We analyzed weekly counts of hospital visits versus cyanobacteria, which was modelled as a continuous measure (ChlBS) or categorized according to World Health Organization's (WHO) alert levels using Poisson generalized linear models. Our data included 2743 individual hospital visits and 114 weeks of satellite derived cyanobacteria biomass indicator data. Peak values of ChlBS were observed between the months of June and October. Using the WHO alert levels, 60% of weeks were categorized as no risk, 19% as Vigilance Level, 15% as Alert Level 1, and 6% as Alert Level 2. In Poisson regression models adjusted for temperature, dewpoint, season, and year, there was no association between ChlBS and hospital visits (rate ratio [RR] [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.98 [0.77, 1.24]). There was also no consistent association between WHO alert level and hospital visits when adjusting for covariates (Vigilance Level: RR [95% CI] 0.88 [0.74, 1.05], Alert Level 1: 0.82 [0.67, 0.99], Alert Level 2: 0.98 [0.77, 1.24], compared to the reference no risk category). Our methodology and model provide a template for future studies that assess the association between cyanobacterial blooms and respiratory health.
The isotope values of fossil snail shells can be important archives of climate. Here, we present the first carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope values of snail shells in interior Alaska to explore changes in vegetation and humidity through the late-glacial period. Snail shell δ13C values were relatively consistent through the late glacial. However, late-glacial shell δ13C values are 2.8‰ higher than those of modern shells. This offset is best explained by the Suess effect and changes in the δ13C values of snail diet. Snail shell δ18O values varied through the late glacial, which can be partially explained by changes in relative humidity (RH). RH during the snail growing period was modeled based on a published flux balance model. Results suggest a dry period toward the beginning of the Bølling–Allerød (~14 ka) followed by two distinct stages of the Younger Dryas, a wetter stage in the early Younger Dryas from 12.9 to 12.3 ka, and subsequent drier stage in the late Younger Dryas between 12.3 and 11.7 ka. The results show that land snail isotopes in high-latitude regions may be used as a supplementary paleoclimate proxy to help clarify complex climate histories, such as those of interior Alaska during the Younger Dryas.
","language":"English","publisher":"Cambridge University Press","doi":"10.1017/qua.2023.54","usgsCitation":"Nield, C.B., Yanes, Y., Reuther, J.D., Muhs, D.R., Pigati, J.S., Miller, J.D., and Druckenmiller, P.S., 2024, Late glacial–Younger Dryas climate in interior Alaska as inferred from the isotope values of land snail shells: Quaternary Research, v. 117, p. 119-134, https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2023.54.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"119","endPage":"134","ipdsId":"IP-154137","costCenters":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":441108,"rank":3,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2023.54","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":435095,"rank":2,"type":{"id":30,"text":"Data Release"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.5066/P953H59T","text":"USGS data release","linkHelpText":"Data release for Late glacial-Younger Dryas climate in interior Alaska as inferred from the isotope values of land snail shells"},{"id":421997,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Alaska","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -156.0371534430809,\n 65.77335808684197\n ],\n [\n -156.0371534430809,\n 63.78566011381855\n ],\n [\n -146.76263627533064,\n 63.78566011381855\n ],\n [\n -146.76263627533064,\n 65.77335808684197\n ],\n [\n -156.0371534430809,\n 65.77335808684197\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"117","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Nield, Catherine B.","contributorId":331005,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Nield","given":"Catherine","email":"","middleInitial":"B.","affiliations":[{"id":7159,"text":"University of Cincinnati","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":886466,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Yanes, Yurena","contributorId":197219,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Yanes","given":"Yurena","email":"","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":886467,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Reuther, Joshua D.","contributorId":331006,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Reuther","given":"Joshua","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":6752,"text":"University of Alaska Fairbanks","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":886468,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Muhs, Daniel R. 0000-0001-7449-251X dmuhs@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7449-251X","contributorId":1857,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Muhs","given":"Daniel","email":"dmuhs@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"R.","affiliations":[{"id":218,"text":"Denver Federal Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":886469,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Pigati, Jeffrey S. 0000-0001-5843-6219 jpigati@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5843-6219","contributorId":201167,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Pigati","given":"Jeffrey","email":"jpigati@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":318,"text":"Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":886470,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5},{"text":"Miller, Joshua D.","contributorId":331008,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Miller","given":"Joshua","email":"","middleInitial":"D.","affiliations":[{"id":7159,"text":"University of Cincinnati","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":886471,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":6},{"text":"Druckenmiller, Patrick. S.","contributorId":331009,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Druckenmiller","given":"Patrick.","email":"","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":6752,"text":"University of Alaska Fairbanks","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":886472,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":7}]}} ,{"id":70263861,"text":"70263861 - 2024 - Reduction of genetic diversity in ‘Alalā (Hawaiian crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) between the late 1800s and the late 1900s","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2025-02-26T21:11:36.27724","indexId":"70263861","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-17T15:09:04","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2333,"text":"Journal of Heredity","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"displayTitle":"Reduction of genetic diversity in ‘Alalā (Hawaiian crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) between the late 1800s and the late 1900s","title":"Reduction of genetic diversity in ‘Alalā (Hawaiian crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) between the late 1800s and the late 1900s","docAbstract":"Genetic and genomic data are increasingly used to aid conservation management of endangered species by providing insights into evolutionary histories, factors associated with extinction risks, and potential for future adaptation. For the ‘Alalā, or Hawaiian crow (Corvus hawaiiensis), genetic concerns include negative correlations between inbreeding and hatching success. However, it is unclear if low genetic diversity and inbreeding depression are consequences of a historical population bottleneck, or if ‘Alalā had historically low genetic diversity that predated human influence, perhaps as a result of earlier declines or founding events. In this study, we applied a hybridization-based sequence capture to generate a genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) dataset for comparing historical specimens collected in the 1890s, when ‘Alalā were more numerous, to samples taken between 1973 and 1998, when ‘Alalā population densities were near the lowest documented levels in the wild, prior to all individuals being collected for captive rearing. We found low genome-wide diversity in both sample groups, however, the modern sample group (1973 to 1998 cohort) exhibited relatively fewer polymorphic alleles, a lower proportion of polymorphic loci, and lower observed heterozygosity, consistent with a population decline and potential bottleneck effects. These results combined with a current low population size highlight the importance of continued efforts by conservation managers to mitigate inbreeding and maintain founder representation to preserve what genetic diversity remains.
","language":"English","publisher":"Oxford Academic","doi":"10.1093/jhered/esad063","usgsCitation":"Blanchet, G., Bellinger, M.R., Kearns, A., Cortes-Rodriguez, N., Masuda, B., Campana, M.G., Rutz, C., Fleischer, R., and Sutton, J., 2024, Reduction of genetic diversity in ‘Alalā (Hawaiian crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) between the late 1800s and the late 1900s: Journal of Heredity, v. 115, no. 1, p. 32-44, https://doi.org/10.1093/jhered/esad063.","productDescription":"13 p.","startPage":"32","endPage":"44","ipdsId":"IP-153519","costCenters":[{"id":521,"text":"Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center","active":false,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":482510,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Hawaii","otherGeospatial":"Island of Hawaii","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -155.66271325336368,\n 18.886427440489825\n ],\n [\n -154.73075561200312,\n 19.494541117345733\n ],\n [\n -155.18826209048927,\n 20.004873708176405\n ],\n [\n -155.86040123789476,\n 20.301808200772868\n ],\n [\n -156.07503390681424,\n 19.718012347687846\n ],\n [\n -155.9394764317072,\n 19.02531729996751\n ],\n [\n -155.66271325336368,\n 18.886427440489825\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"115","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Blanchet, Geneviève","contributorId":351501,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Blanchet","given":"Geneviève","affiliations":[{"id":37485,"text":"University of Hawai‘i - 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A field study was conducted on fish tissues from three reaches of the Columbia Slough, located near Portland International Airport, OR, that are affected by AFFF and other PFAS sources. Fishes including largescale sucker (Catostomus macrocheilus), goldfish (Carassius auratus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) were collected in 2019 and 2020. Fish blood, liver, and fillet (muscle) were analyzed for target and suspect PFAS by liquid chromatography high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). Data were analyzed for patterns by fish species, tissue type, and river reach. Thirty-three out of 50 target PFAS and additional suspect compounds were detected at least once during the study, at concentrations up to 856 ng/g. Seven carboxylic acids (PFOA, PFNA, PFDA, PFUdA, PFDoA, PFTrDA, PFTeDA), three sulfonates (PFHxS, PFOS, PFDS), three electrofluorination-based compounds (FBSA, FHxSA, FOSA), and two fluorotelomer-based compounds (8:2 FTS, 10:2 FTS) were the most frequently detected compounds in all tissue types. The C6 (PFHxS) to C10 (PFDS) homologs were detected with PFOS and FHxSA at concentrations 1–3 orders of magnitude greater than the other PFAS detected. This is the first report of Cl-PFOS, FPeSA, and FHpSA detected in fish tissue. In all fish samples, fillet concentrations of PFAS were the lowest, followed by liver, and blood concentrations of PFAS were the highest. Differences in PFAS concentrations were driven primarily by tissue types and to a lesser extent fish species, but weakly by river reach. The Oregon Health Authority modified an existing fish consumption advisory on the Columbia Slough to recommend no whole-body consumption of most fish to avoid elevated levels of PFOS in fish liver. Measured PFAS concentrations in fish tissues indicate the potential for adverse ecological effects.
","language":"English","publisher":"Elsevier","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167798","usgsCitation":"Nilsen, E., Muensterman, D.J., Carini, L., Waite, I.R., Payne, S.E., Field, J., Peterson, J.L., Hafley, D., Farrer, D., and Jones, G.D., 2024, Target and suspect per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in fish from an AFFF-impacted waterway: Science of the Total Environment, v. 906, 167798, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167798.","productDescription":"167798, 11 p.","ipdsId":"IP-134199","costCenters":[{"id":518,"text":"Oregon Water Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":441111,"rank":0,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167798","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":423178,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Oregon","otherGeospatial":"Columbia Slough","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": 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change","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-02-26T15:51:23.13348","indexId":"70249666","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-16T08:54:25","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":5686,"text":"Fisheries Magazine","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout recovery in Yellowstone Lake: Complex interactions among invasive species suppression, disease, and climate change","docAbstract":"In Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, the largest inland population of nonhybridized Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri, hereafter Cutthroat Trout, declined throughout the 2000s because of predation from invasive Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush, drought, and whirling disease Myxobolus cerebralis. To maintain ecosystem function and conserve Cutthroat Trout, a Lake Trout gill netting suppression program was established in 1995, decreasing Lake Trout abundance and biomass. Yet, the response of Cutthroat Trout to varying Lake Trout suppression levels, collectively with the influence of disease and climate, is unknown. We developed an ecosystem model (calibrated to historical data) to forecast (2020–2050) whether Cutthroat Trout would achieve recovery benchmarks given disease, varying suppression effort, and climate change. Lake Trout suppression influenced Cutthroat Trout recovery; current suppression effort levels resulted in Cutthroat Trout recovering from historical lows in the early 2000s. However, Cutthroat Trout did not achieve conservation benchmarks when incorporating the influence of disease and climate. Therefore, the National Park Service intends to incorporate age-specific abundance, spawner biomass, or both in conservation benchmarks to provide better indication of how management actions and environmental conditions influence Cutthroat Trout. Our results illustrate how complex interactions within an ecosystem must be simultaneously considered to establish and achieve realistic benchmarks for species of conservation concern.
","language":"English","publisher":"American Fisheries Society","doi":"10.1002/fsh.10998","usgsCitation":"Glassic, H.C., Chagaris, D., Guy, C.S., Tronstad, L., Lujan, D., Briggs, M., Albertson, L.K., Brenden, T., Walsworth, T., and Koel, T., 2024, Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout recovery in Yellowstone Lake: Complex interactions among invasive species suppression, disease, and climate change: Fisheries Magazine, v. 49, no. 2, p. 55-70, https://doi.org/10.1002/fsh.10998.","productDescription":"16 p.","startPage":"55","endPage":"70","ipdsId":"IP-151063","costCenters":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":441118,"rank":2,"type":{"id":40,"text":"Open Access Publisher Index Page"},"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fsh.10998","text":"Publisher Index Page"},{"id":422067,"rank":1,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"Wyoming","otherGeospatial":"Yellowstone Lake","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -110.46571733395714,\n 44.47235042022757\n ],\n [\n -110.53049791213878,\n 44.4807323083684\n ],\n [\n -110.58103121539398,\n 44.45607208130505\n ],\n [\n -110.58770962551598,\n 44.37751467517876\n ],\n [\n -110.44968914966448,\n 44.384591552065814\n ],\n [\n -110.46171028788416,\n 44.35592153182444\n ],\n [\n -110.38824777654403,\n 44.347625632670926\n ],\n [\n -110.3446154970815,\n 44.27244868988936\n ],\n [\n -110.18967638225539,\n 44.28778395669133\n ],\n [\n -110.27872185054618,\n 44.56757967106944\n ],\n [\n -110.43455142005537,\n 44.559307436100866\n ],\n [\n -110.46571733395714,\n 44.47235042022757\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","volume":"49","issue":"2","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Glassic, Hayley Corrine 0000-0001-6839-1026","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6839-1026","contributorId":305858,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Glassic","given":"Hayley","email":"","middleInitial":"Corrine","affiliations":[{"id":481,"text":"Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":886643,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Chagaris, David","contributorId":304514,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Chagaris","given":"David","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":36221,"text":"University of Florida","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":886644,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Guy, Christopher S. 0000-0002-9936-4781 cguy@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9936-4781","contributorId":2876,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Guy","given":"Christopher","email":"cguy@usgs.gov","middleInitial":"S.","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":5062,"text":"Office of the Chief Scientist for Ecosystems","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":438,"text":"National Research Program - 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2024 - Genomic insights into isolation of the threatened Florida crested caracara (Caracara plancus)","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-06-07T11:51:38.687513","indexId":"70254770","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-14T06:47:40","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":2333,"text":"Journal of Heredity","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Genomic insights into isolation of the threatened Florida crested caracara (Caracara plancus)","docAbstract":"We conducted a population genomic study of the crested caracara (Caracara plancus) using samples (n = 290) collected from individuals in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, United States. Crested caracaras are non-migratory raptors ranging from the southern tip of South America to the southern United States, including a federally protected relict population in Florida long thought to have been isolated since the last ice age. Our objectives were to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure of Florida’s apparently isolated population and to evaluate taxonomic relationships of crested caracaras at the northern edge of their range. Using DNA purified from blood samples, we conducted double-digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing and sequenced the mitochondrial ND2 gene. Analyses of population structure using over 9,000 SNPs suggest that two major clusters are best supported, one cluster including only Florida individuals and the other cluster including Arizona and Texas individuals. Both SNPs and mitochondrial haplotypes reveal the Florida population to be highly differentiated genetically from Arizona and Texas populations, whereas, Arizona and Texas populations are moderately differentiated from each other. The Florida population’s mitochondrial haplotypes form a separate monophyletic group, while Arizona and Texas populations share mitochondrial haplotypes. Results of this study provide substantial genetic evidence that Florida’s crested caracaras have experienced long-term isolation from caracaras in Arizona and Texas and thus, represent a distinct evolutionary lineage possibly warranting distinction as an Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU) or subspecies. This study will inform conservation strategies focused on long-term survival of Florida’s distinct, panmictic population.
","language":"English","publisher":"Oxford Academic","doi":"10.1093/jhered/esad057","usgsCitation":"Payne, N., Erwin, J.A., Morrison, J.L., Dwyer, J.F., and Culver, M., 2024, Genomic insights into isolation of the threatened Florida crested caracara (Caracara plancus): Journal of Heredity, v. 115, no. 1, p. 45-56, https://doi.org/10.1093/jhered/esad057.","productDescription":"12 p.","startPage":"45","endPage":"56","ipdsId":"IP-157635","costCenters":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":498479,"rank":0,"type":{"id":41,"text":"Open Access External Repository Page"},"url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10150/671235","text":"External Repository"},{"id":429624,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"volume":"115","issue":"1","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Payne, Natalie","contributorId":287191,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Payne","given":"Natalie","email":"","affiliations":[{"id":40855,"text":"UA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":902557,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Erwin, John A.","contributorId":275259,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Erwin","given":"John","email":"","middleInitial":"A.","affiliations":[{"id":40855,"text":"UA","active":true,"usgs":false}],"preferred":false,"id":902558,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Morrison, Joan L.","contributorId":169993,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Morrison","given":"Joan","email":"","middleInitial":"L.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":902559,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3},{"text":"Dwyer, James F.","contributorId":169992,"corporation":false,"usgs":false,"family":"Dwyer","given":"James","email":"","middleInitial":"F.","affiliations":[],"preferred":false,"id":902560,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":4},{"text":"Culver, Melanie 0000-0001-5380-3059 mculver@usgs.gov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5380-3059","contributorId":197693,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Culver","given":"Melanie","email":"mculver@usgs.gov","affiliations":[{"id":200,"text":"Coop Res Unit Seattle","active":true,"usgs":true},{"id":199,"text":"Coop Res Unit Leetown","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":902561,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":5}]}} ,{"id":70259508,"text":"70259508 - 2024 - Hydrologic, water operations, reservoir temperature, river temperature, sediment transport, habitat, and fish population modeling for the Trinity River Water Management Plan","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-10-10T16:48:39.581259","indexId":"70259508","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-13T10:11:28","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":18,"text":"Report"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":4,"text":"Other Government Series"},"seriesTitle":{"id":18744,"text":"Modeling Report","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":4}},"seriesNumber":"Plan Project no. 251008","title":"Hydrologic, water operations, reservoir temperature, river temperature, sediment transport, habitat, and fish population modeling for the Trinity River Water Management Plan","docAbstract":"Humboldt County is developing a Water Management Plan that will describe a range of proposed annual releases from Trinity Reservoir consistent with the 1959 water delivery contract between Humboldt County and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). The 1959 contract states that Reclamation shall release not less than an annual quantity of 50,000 acre-feet into the Trinity River for the beneficial use of Humboldt County and other downstream users (Contract Water).
The Water Management Plan will outline how Contract Water should be released for the benefit of fisheries in the Trinity River and lower Klamath River, with the primary goal of expanding a harvestable surplus of Tribal, recreational, and commercial fisheries. A set of annual Contract Water release scenarios were developed during five workshops conducted in 2022 and 2023 with interested parties including Humboldt County, state and federal resource agencies, tribal representatives, Reclamation, and the U.S. Department of the Interior Solicitor’s office. A suite of modeling and technical tools was used to analyze annual conditions with and without Contract Water releases.
This Modeling Report describes the modeling tools used to assess Contract Water release scenarios, including CalSim II, HEC-5Q, RBM10, sediment transport models, Chinook Salmon habitat models, and the Stream Salmonid Simulator. Results from all models are summarized to provide a comparative overview of modeled release scenarios to modeled baseline conditions.
Mean annual Contract Water release scenarios ranged from 50,000 acre-feet to 170,000 acre-feet, and varied in timing, magnitude, and duration, though all releases were made between October and April. As shown in Table ES-1, a key finding of this modeling report is Contract Water releases that had the greatest modeled increase in Chinook Salmon abundance relative to baseline conditions included those that released 50,000 acre-feet in the fall period from October through December as pulse flows or baseflows, and those that released 170,000 acre-feet from October through April as a combination of pulse flows and baseflows. Modeled beneficial effects on populations were primarily due to either (1) increases in habitat area during the spawning life stage in October through December, which decreased redd superimposition (e.g., the process of a later arriving spawner building a redd on top of an existing redd) and improved egg survival, or (2) increases in flow during the fry emergence and juvenile rearing life stage in March through April, which increased the fry and parr carrying capacity (e.g., the upper limit for the number of fry or parr that a habitat unit can support) of individual habitat units.
Another key finding of this report is all Contract Water scenarios that released at least 50,000 acre-feet annually from Trinity Reservoir had similar effects on Trinity Reservoir storage, Central Valley Project (CVP) storage, CVP contract water deliveries, and Sacramento River water temperatures. Whether these scenarios were released annually as a fall baseflow, fall pulse flow, spring pulse flow, or spring baseflow, they all resulted in similar storage patterns in Trinity Reservoir – an annual reduction in storage relative to the baseline that was relatively small in wetter years and larger in drier years. As a result of lower Trinity Storage levels, Trinity River Division (TRD) exports to the CVP were reduced. Because the timing of exports is similar each year, reaching a peak in July through September, the reduction to exports occurred at the same time each year, independent of Contract Water release timing, resulting in similar storage, CVP delivery, and water temperature effects in the Sacramento River basin portion of the CVP. The water temperature effects on the Sacramento River were limited to the months of July and August, relatively minor, and were primarily attributed to changes in storage, release magnitude, and release temperature from Lake Shasta, and not due explicitly to inflows from the TRD.
","language":"English","publisher":"Stantec Consulting Services Inc.","usgsCitation":"Plumb, J., Perry, R., and Stantec Consulting Services Inc., 2024, Hydrologic, water operations, reservoir temperature, river temperature, sediment transport, habitat, and fish population modeling for the Trinity River Water Management Plan: Modeling Report Plan Project no. 251008, xi, 111 p.","productDescription":"xi, 111 p.","ipdsId":"IP-154221","costCenters":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"links":[{"id":462767,"rank":1,"type":{"id":15,"text":"Index Page"},"url":"https://humboldtgov.org/DocumentCenter/","linkFileType":{"id":5,"text":"html"}},{"id":462795,"type":{"id":24,"text":"Thumbnail"},"url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg"}],"country":"United States","state":"California","county":"Humboldt County","otherGeospatial":"Trinity River","geographicExtents":"{\n \"type\": \"FeatureCollection\",\n \"features\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"Feature\",\n \"properties\": {},\n \"geometry\": {\n \"coordinates\": [\n [\n [\n -124.10894911119672,\n 41.54543340405891\n ],\n [\n -124.10894911119672,\n 40.712352880278644\n ],\n [\n -123.18492172676612,\n 40.712352880278644\n ],\n [\n -123.18492172676612,\n 41.54543340405891\n ],\n [\n -124.10894911119672,\n 41.54543340405891\n ]\n ]\n ],\n \"type\": \"Polygon\"\n }\n }\n ]\n}","noUsgsAuthors":false,"publicationStatus":"PW","contributors":{"authors":[{"text":"Plumb, John 0000-0003-4255-1612","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4255-1612","contributorId":220178,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Plumb","given":"John","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":915539,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":1},{"text":"Perry, Russell 0000-0003-4110-8619","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4110-8619","contributorId":220189,"corporation":false,"usgs":true,"family":"Perry","given":"Russell","affiliations":[{"id":654,"text":"Western Fisheries Research Center","active":true,"usgs":true}],"preferred":true,"id":915540,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":2},{"text":"Stantec Consulting Services Inc.","contributorId":345093,"corporation":true,"usgs":false,"organization":"Stantec Consulting Services Inc.","id":915623,"contributorType":{"id":1,"text":"Authors"},"rank":3}]}} ,{"id":70249648,"text":"70249648 - 2024 - Progradational-to-retrogradational styles of Palaeogene fluvial fan successions in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico","interactions":[],"lastModifiedDate":"2024-01-24T17:49:26.019502","indexId":"70249648","displayToPublicDate":"2023-10-12T08:47:43","publicationYear":"2024","noYear":false,"publicationType":{"id":2,"text":"Article"},"publicationSubtype":{"id":10,"text":"Journal Article"},"seriesTitle":{"id":17062,"text":"Journal of Basin Research","active":true,"publicationSubtype":{"id":10}},"title":"Progradational-to-retrogradational styles of Palaeogene fluvial fan successions in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico","docAbstract":"Basin-scale outcrop analyses of fluvial architecture in the Palaeogene San Juan Basin, New Mexico, document lateral and vertical trends in channel, floodplain and palaeosol characteristics. Herein, the uppermost part of the Palaeocene Nacimiento Formation and lower Eocene Cuba Mesa and Regina Members of the San Jose Formation are identified as deposits of large fluvial fans based on trends observed across the basin. Stratigraphic trends suggest two packages originated by fluvial fan progradation. Progradation of the lower fan system provides a new explanation for the transitional nature of a disconformity at the Nacimiento–San Jose Formation contact, previously thought to be a low-angle unconformity. The two fan systems are separated by a retrogradational interval that culminates in a depositional hiatus at the contact between the Cuba Mesa and Regina Members. This, combined with poor age constraints, indicates that the duration of the disconformity at the base of the Cuba Mesa Member may have been overestimated. Furthermore, the succession is interpreted as deposits of variable-discharge rivers, based on the combined abundance of upper flow regime and high deposition rate sedimentary structures indicative of intense flooding events, preservation of in-channel bioturbation and paedogenic modification indicating periods of prolonged dryness, lack of identifiable bar strata and alternations of poorly drained and well-drained floodplain deposits with pedofacies indicating alternating wet–dry cycles. This dataset adds to a growing body of evidence linking the formation of large fluvial fans to discharge variability and thus to hydroclimates with significant inter- and intra-annual precipitation variability and intense rainfall. A long-term stratigraphic shift from poorly drained to well-drained floodplain deposits across two progradational fan successions indicates that a predictive model suggesting downstream decreases in soil drainage conditions is not encompassing of all large fan systems, and instead suggests a transition to a more arid climate across the Palaeocene–Eocene boundary.
Ecosystem state transitions can be ecologically devastating or be a restoration success. State transitions are common within aquatic systems worldwide, especially considering human-mediated changes to land use and water use. We created a transferable conceptual framework to enable multiscale assessments of state resilience and early warnings of state transitions that can inform strategic restorations and avoid ecosystem collapse. The conceptual framework integrated machine learning predictions with ecosystem state concepts (e.g., state classification, gradients of vulnerability, and recovery potential leading to state transitions) and was devised to investigate possible environmental drivers. As an application of the framework, we generated prediction probabilities of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) presence at nearly 10,000 sites in the Upper Mississippi River (United States). Then, we used an interpretability method to explain model predictions to gain insights into possible environmental drivers and thresholds or linear responses of SAV presence and absence. Model accuracy was 89% without spatial bias. Average water depth, suspended solids, substrate, and distance to nearest SAV were the best predictors and likely environmental drivers of SAV habitat suitability. These environmental drivers exhibited nonlinear, threshold-type responses for SAV. All the results are also presented in an online dashboard to explore results at many spatial scales. The habitat suitability model outputs and prediction explanations from many spatial scales (4 m to 400 km of river reach) can inform research and restoration planning.
Long-term monitoring of water quality responses to natural and anthropogenic perturbation of watersheds informs policies for managing natural resources. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO3−) in streams draining forested landscapes provide valuable information on ecosystem function due to their biogeochemical reactivity and solubility in water. Here we evaluate a 20-year record (2001−2021) of biweekly stream-water samples (n > 3000) and continuous discharge in three forested catchments in the Adirondack region of New York to investigate and interpret long-term trends in DOC and NO3− concentrations. Results from the intensively monitored catchments were compared with data from synoptic surveys of streams throughout the Adirondack region. A weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) model, used to estimate daily flow-normalized concentrations, determined that DOC increased by ~30 to 50 % while NO3− decreased by ~50 to 70 % over the study period. The large amount of data from catchments with different soil properties permitted us to assess the relative effects of hydrology, season, and land cover factors on temporal trends in DOC and NO3− concentrations. We found weak evidence of climatic forcing of long-term increases in DOC, and instead contend that declining ionic strength in precipitation linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition is driving DOC trends in stream waters. Nitrate concentrations were more variable but clearly decreased in recent years possibly related to declining N deposition. The recent increase in DOC:NO3− in all catchments indicates a major shift in stream stoichiometry that reflects changes in ecosystem functioning that may have important biogeochemical implications for terrestrial as well as aquatic ecosystems.
Some graylings Thymallus spp. possess an elongated dorsal fin and other morphological traits that can be sexually dimorphic, as demonstrated in the European Grayling T. thymallus. North American Arctic Grayling T. arcticus are assumed to follow these trends, but decisive evidence is lacking. This study aimed to determine whether sexually dimorphic characteristics, including posterior dorsal height, can be used to accurately predict the sex of Arctic Grayling in Interior Alaska.
We used computer imaging software to measure 22 morphometrics on 97 Arctic Grayling of known sex from streams in Interior Alaska, and we developed a set of binomial models to evaluate the validity of morphometrics as predictors of Arctic Grayling sex.
Posterior dorsal height was a reasonably accurate predictor of sex (~90% accurate at fork lengths ≥300 mm), although models containing additional morphometrics were more accurate (100% accuracy at fork lengths ≥250 mm).
This study presents an affordable, noninvasive, and replicable method for nonlethal determination of Arctic Grayling sex by using digital images from the field, with potential application to other salmonids.
Knowledge about the demographic and environmental factors underlying population dynamics is fundamental to designing effective conservation measures to recover depleted wildlife populations. However, sparse monitoring data or persistent knowledge gaps about threats make it difficult to identify the drivers of population dynamics. In situations where small, declining, or depleted populations show continued evidence of decline for unknown reasons, integrated population models can make efficient use of available data to improve our understanding of demography, provide fundamental insights into factors that may be limiting recovery, and support conservation decisions. We used mark-resight and aerial survey data from 2004 to 2018 to build a Bayesian integrated population model for the Cook Inlet population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas), which is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We examined the effects of prey availability and oceanographic conditions on beluga vital rates and conducted a population viability analysis to predict extinction risk across a range of hypothetical changes in beluga survival and reproduction. Our results indicated that while the survival of breeding females (0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99) and young calves (0.92; 0.80–0.98) was relatively high, the survival of nonbreeders (0.94; 0.91–0.97) and fecundity (0.28; 0.22–0.36) may be depressed. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the population will likely continue to decline, with a 17–32% probability of extinction in 150 years. Our model highlights the utility of integrated population modeling for maximizing the usefulness of available data and identifying factors contributing to the failure of protected populations to recover. This framework can be used to evaluate proposed conservation and recovery efforts for this and other endangered species.