USGS Publications Warehouse

Neutron scattering reveals fractionation of natural gas mixtures in unconventional petroleum reservoir pores: Perspectives on energy resource recovery and storage

Wed, 3 Jun 2026 19:26:37

In unconventional petroleum reservoirs hydrocarbon fluids are hosted by both mineral and organic matter pores. These pores can have diameters that range from microns to less than a single nanometer and, for unconventional reservoirs, there is evidence that small pores ( <20 nm diameter) may constitute a large proportion of the available space. Understanding subsurface volumes and how fluids behave in them can be helpful for predicting hydrocarbon production and storage in the subsurface. One area with knowledge gaps regarding hydrocarbon behavior in small pores is the possibility for mixtures to fractionate (i.e., unmix) based on pore size or pore type. Mixture fractionation as a function of pore size could impact recovery of hydrocarbons, drive compositional shifts during production, and limit fluid storage within candidate reservoirs. To investigate natural gas fractionation in small geologic pores, we applied total neutron scattering to probe methane-ethane mixtures at reservoir pressures (up to ≈30 MPa) and temperature (60°C) within a sample from the Upper Cretaceous Niobrara Formation. Neutron scattering data reveal only minor fractionation occurs between methane and ethane in 20-nm diameter sample mesopores. Increased fractionation is observed for sample micropores, with up to 72% (±1% at 1-sigma) methane found in 2 nm diameter pores following injection of a 50%-50% methane-ethane mixture. These data provide rarely available direct experimental observations of hydrocarbon mixture behavior under nanoconfinement in a sample from an important unconventional petroleum reservoir. Our results are discussed in the context of evaluating hydrocarbon resources in unconventional reservoir meso- and micropores, reconciling observed gas composition changes during production, and more broadly, understanding subsurface pore volumes within an energy storage framework.

Resurvey of cross sections on the Green River in Browns Park, Colorado and Utah

Griffiths, Ronald; Topping, David; Unema, Joel; Kohl, Keith — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:03:57

This study resurveyed ten previously established cross sections and established eight new cross sections on the Green River in Browns Park to document changes in channel width, depth, and area since earlier surveys conducted in 1994. The measured area of the channel cross sections on the Green River in Browns Park generally increased between the initial surveys and 2019. This increase in cross-sectional area was observed in nine of the ten resurveyed cross sections and is indicative of net sediment erosion. The increase in cross sectional area occurred through both channel widening (bank retreat) and increases in depth (bed incision). An analysis of the contribution of bank versus bed changes to the overall area change suggests that the erosion is mostly from the bed of the channel. In addition, weak longitudinal trends in the bed-sand grain-size distribution are consistent with progressive depletion of the sand stored on the bed of the Green River in Browns Park. The findings from our cross-section resurvey support the conclusion that the Green River in Browns Park is experiencing progressive sediment loss and is in a state of sediment deficit.

2026–2031 U.S. Geological Survey strategy for a hazard ready Nation—Actionable science for risk reduction

Pennaz, Alice; Friedman, Jack; Wood, Nathan; Meszaros, Jacqueline — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 14:07:01

Executive Summary

The USGS Strategy for a Hazard Ready Nation provides an approach that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers and staff can use to deliver actionable, user-focused science that supports risk-informed decision making aimed at reducing risk and losses across the Nation. The Strategy builds upon successful efforts within the USGS and seeks to promote and prioritize similar work in the future under an organized framework.

Rooted in four priorities—(1) center end-user needs, (2) enhance research relevance, (3) support product and service development and implementation, and (4) improve communication—the USGS Strategy for a Hazard Ready Nation is designed to focus and guide, not prescribe, activities. Strategic actions are proposed to achieve these four priorities in a timely fashion. The USGS plans to continually build upon the Strategy for a Hazard Ready Nation to deliver actionable information for risk-informed decision making.

Development of liquefaction-targeted design basis in U.S. seismic provisions

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:25:01

Seismic design criteria for new buildings in the United States have historically focused on life safety performance objectives through minimizing the potential for structural collapse. Development of design criteria to meet this performance objective has evolved over time, leading to the current, risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE_R) design basis. Corresponding MCE_R seismic design loads incorporate the full range of probabilistic ground motion hazard information available from U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models, as well as a representation of the uncertainty in structural collapse capacity. Despite these considerable advances in structural design criteria, guidelines for geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction-induced damage, which continue to be based on uniform ground-shaking hazard (i.e., MCE ground motions), are not well-connected with risk-based, collapse prevention performance objectives. This study, undertaken as part of Building Seismic Safety Council efforts to update recommended seismic provisions through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, presents probabilistic, liquefaction-targeted design objectives and corresponding ground motion parameters, with a focus on improving consistency in first-level screening criteria for liquefaction hazard assessment. This study identifies a potential maximum acceptable annualized probability of liquefaction triggering (P_L,max) of 2.5% in 50 years, above which liquefaction consequences and potential mitigation measures would be considered. The P_L,max-based design basis is calibrated to effective probabilistic liquefaction hazard levels obtained in practice using current MCE peak ground accelerations, and could be implemented via a new liquefaction-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE_L) peak ground acceleration (PGA_L). The proposed PGA_L is derived from probabilistic liquefaction hazard curves and includes uncertainties inherent to liquefaction hazard modeling. The potential design effects of the proposed PGA_L are demonstrated via comparison with current MCE PGA levels, effects on first-level liquefaction screening analyses, and improvements in the consistency of P_L,max levels across the United States, and for a wide range of site conditions.

U.S. Geological Survey Monitoring Milestones—Oe-151 at Woodgate, NY (433112075091501)

Bunch, Claire; Caldwell, Rodney — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 13:46:37

On July 9, 1926, monitoring well Oe-151 at Woodgate, New York (USGS ID 433112075091501) recorded its first groundwater data. Since then, the well has provided water data nearly continuously and has now reached a 100-year milestone for data collection. The well is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate Response Network (CRN), which is a national network of wells selected to monitor natural groundwater conditions. Well Oe-151 is the first well in the network to reach a 100-year Centennial milestone.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics at gaged and ungaged locations on streams in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:44:15

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources (Environmental Protection Division), North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (Division of Water Resources), North Carolina Department of Public Safety (Office of Recovery and Resiliency), and South Carolina Department of Environmental Services, updated low-flow frequency, mean annual flow, and flow-duration statistics at 843 streamgages in and near Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The low-flow frequency statistics are annual minimum 1-day average flow with a 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10), annual minimum 7-day average flow for 2- and 10-year recurrence intervals (7Q2 and 7Q10, respectively), and annual minimum 30-day average flow with 2- and 3-year recurrence intervals (30Q2 and 30Q3, respectively). Monthly 1Q10 and 7Q10, and W7Q10 flow statistics for the winter period (November–March) also are presented. By using data from 604 of the streamgages on streams with streamflows that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversion and are not tidally influenced, regional regression equations were developed to predict flow statistics with prediction intervals at ungaged locations on streams with those same criteria. The regional regression analysis included data from 132 streamgages from adjacent States Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. The final regional regression equations include variables such as drainage area, streamflow variability, precipitation, percentage of impervious area, and percentage of the basin in various ecoregions. The low-flow statistics for the streamgages analyzed and the regional regression equations will be integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application (https://www.usgs.gov/streamstats) for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. StreamStats generates basin characteristics needed to compute low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations.

A trend analysis of annual minimum 7-day average flows was done for 78 streamgages with at least 30 years of continuous record. Trends were evaluated for 30-, 50‑, 70-, and 90-year periods, ending in climate year 2021, and independence and short- and long-term persistence assumptions were considered. For all trend analysis assumptions, most streamgages did not exhibit significant trends in annual minimum 7-day average flows. Trends in annual precipitation and air temperature were similarly evaluated for the period 1895–2021 to assess the variability of climate for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

Comparing DESIS hyperspectral and Landsat 10 simulated superspectral data for crop type classification in California's Central Valley

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 18:44:31

To advance crop type mapping in support of global food and water security, this study compared three spectral configurations: (A) the full 60-band DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) hyperspectral narrowband (HNB) dataset, (B) a 14-band subset of DESIS-derived HNBs aligned with the planned Landsat 10 (formerly Landsat Next) spectral configuration (400–1000 nm), and (C) DESIS-based simulations of Landsat 10 superspectral broadbands. The analysis was conducted in California’s Central Valley, hereafter referred to as “the Central Valley”, during the peak growing month of August. DESIS imagery from August 2021, 2022, and 2023 was used sequentially for model development, testing, and independent validation. Over these three years, DESIS provided extensive hyperspectral coverage of much of the 4 million hectares in the Central Valley’s. Analyses were performed on Google Earth Engine using two pixel-based supervised classifiers, Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), to differentiate three major crop classes: row crops, grapes and tree crops, and winter wheat/fallow/other. The highest overall accuracy (86%) was achieved using SVM in combination with either the full DESIS hyperspectral dataset or the 14 DESIS narrowbands corresponding to Landsat 10. This finding aligns with earlier studies showing a small number of strategically positioned narrowbands can be optimal for crop type classification. Use of the narrowband datasets resulted in substantially higher accuracy (overall accuracy of 86%) compared to the simulated Landsat 10 broadbands (overall accuracy of 75%), supporting previous studies highlighting the utility of narrowbands. Despite the high accuracy using August imagery, the study indicates more granular crop type classification will require multi-temporal observations spanning the full phenological cycle (June–October), especially for a large number of crop classes. Acquiring task-based hyperspectral imagery over such large areas throughout the growing season remains operationally challenging. In contrast, Landsat 10 superspectral imagery could provide routine coverage across seasons and years that is practical and scalable for future large area crop type mapping and agricultural monitoring.

Requirements, capabilities, and analysis for Earth observations—From user needs to Earth observation solutions

Garthwaite, Iris; Wengert, Ellen — Thu, 9 Jul 2026 13:40:23

Introduction

At the core of the Nation’s land imaging enterprise, the Requirements, Capabilities, and Analysis for Earth Observations (RCA-EO) project serves as the backbone for understanding user needs and shaping the future of Earth observation (EO) systems, products, and technology development. Understanding user needs and continuously tracking observing system capabilities is essential for EO because it ensures that the U.S. Government investments remain aligned with the real-world decisions, applications, and societal benefits they are intended to support.

The RCA-EO project collects data users’ land imaging needs, focusing on what needs to be measured rather than specific technology. Collecting this data has resulted in a comprehensive understanding of civil land imaging user needs across scientific and operational applications. Over the past 10 years, the RCA-EO project has interviewed hundreds of subject matter experts, yielding more than a thousand user needs.

The RCA-EO project’s analytical tools, models, and methods help inform the development of land imaging systems and products, determine appropriate data purchases, and prioritize partnerships for access to data from missions outside of the USGS. Our tools and databases support decisions with credible, needs-based information.

Seeing is believing: Livestream video monitoring of Hawaiian eruptions

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 15:06:36

Livestream video has become a crucial tool for volcano monitoring in recent years, building upon the use of webcam snapshots that have been common for the past two decades. In Hawaii, livestream video was first tested in 2018, and today, livestream video is a vital tool for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and partner agencies (National Park Service and Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense) as well as the public. Its role in volcano monitoring has been highlighted by the 2024–present summit eruption of Kīlauea—where three livestream video feeds provide a continuous and easily accessible view of the activity for the public. Here, we describe the methodology and equipment used for the livestream cameras in Hawaii and discuss the benefits and challenges of livestream video monitoring. We show how the nature of livestream video has fundamentally changed volcano monitoring, providing an “up-close” view to the world that was previously limited to observatory field staff. The livestream video feeds, coupled with the historical summit lava fountains, have provided an unprecedented level of engagement with the public, both local and worldwide.

Timescales of cumulate mobilization and mixing for the 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa, Island of Hawai‘i

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 14:31:00

The deadly 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa’s lower Southwest Rift Zone (Island of Hawai‘i) included a M7.9 earthquake and associated tsunami and landslides, demonstrating the severe hazards posed by Earth’s largest active subaerial volcano. To better understand the relationship between intense seismic activity, dike emplacement, magma storage, transport histories, and mobilization of olivine cumulates at Mauna Loa, we examine compositional zoning of olivine in the 1868 lava flows. Samples range from basalt (< 10% olivine) to picrite (30–40% olivine). The olivine cargo is heterogeneous (Fo_78.2–89.2; forsterite = [Mg/(Mg + Fe) × 100]) but dominated by ~ Fo₈₉ cores that lie above the Fe-Mg equilibrium field of host glasses. Crystal rims < Fo₈₀ are due to post-eruptive modification in slow cooling lava flows. Minor element compositions fall within the range of other Mauna Loa olivine erupted in the past 200 years. Olivine crystals exhibit both normal and complex Fo zoning patterns that yield timescales of diffusive re-equilibration that range from 3 to 258 days, with 72% of crystals recording 71 days or less. These timescales correspond to magmatic priming of the summit reservoir system ~ 2 months prior to the eruption and the M7.9 earthquake likely facilitated the transport of the crystal-rich summit-derived magmas downrift shortly prior to eruption. If the recently proposed faster Fe-Mg diffusion coefficient is used, timescales instead range from < 1 day to 25 days, with most recording 1 week or less. In this scenario, most of the olivine zoning would have to have been generated after the M7.9 earthquake perturbed the system.

USGS Flow Photo Explorer Updates

Fair, Jennifer — Thu, 9 Jul 2026 14:14:13

No abstract available.

Computing flow-field distortion coefficients from well-construction and formation properties

Bayless, E.; Ostheimer, Chad; Darner, Robert — Tue, 7 Jul 2026 19:45:09

Direct measurements of groundwater velocity made with borehole flowmeters in screened wells must be compensated for the effects of flow-field distortion (also known as borehole acceleration). A theoretical equation developed by Drost et al. (1968) and simple inputs describing hydraulic properties of well construction and geologic formation were programmed into an Excel workbook to facilitate computation by groundwater-flowmeter users. Tables describing the physical and hydraulic properties for well constructions and gravel pack media are provided with an example to facilitate use of the workbook. Groundwater flowlines converge or diverge as they pass from a geologic formation, through a gravel pack and well screen. The extent of flowline convergence or divergence and the value of the flow-field distortion coefficient is related to the relative changes in hydraulic conductivity of the well screen, gravel pack, and geologic formation. Convergence or divergence is accompanied by acceleration or deceleration of groundwater. Direct measurements of groundwater velocity at the center of the monitoring well can be adjusted to provide a more accurate estimate of velocity in the formation by applying a correction for flow-field distortion. Variables required to compute the flow-field distortion coefficient include the hydraulic conductivity of the gravel pack, well screen, and the geologic formation surrounding the well screen; the borehole radius, and the inside radius and outside radius of the well screen.

Pliocene (Piacenzian) planktic foraminiferal biogeography: Insights into how planktic biogeography is linked to climate and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems

Dowsett, Harry; Spivey, Whittney; Foley, Kevin; Robinson, Marci — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 15:51:58

The Piacenzian Age (3.60–2.58 Ma) of the Pliocene Epoch was characterized by globally warmer climates, higher sea levels, and atmospheric CO₂ similar to present. Utilizing a robust dataset of 2,101 samples and over 637,000 foraminifer specimens from 77 deep-sea core sites worldwide, we document planktic foraminifer biogeography and biodiversity during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling reveal five major bioregions: tropical, warm subtropical, transitional, polar, and a distinct North Atlantic polar bioregion. Each bioregion was dominated by characteristic species with well-established temperature preferences. Analyses demonstrate higher species richness and evenness in low and mid-latitudes, with increased diversity associated with periods of climatic warming and poleward expansion of warm water assemblages. The long-term stability of biogeographic patterns underscores ecological conservatism but also highlights potential vulnerability to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our findings emphasize the critical role of planktic foraminifers in reconstructing past ocean conditions and offer valuable insights into links between planktic biogeography, climate, and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of marine ecosystem responses to climate extremes and provides a foundation for future regional and temporal analyses of planktic foraminifer biogeography under global change scenarios.

The geologic history of the Chehalis Forearc Basin, Washington State, USA

Moe, Rud; Bershaw, John; Staisch, Lydia; Streig, Ashley — Thu, 9 Jul 2026 16:53:04

The Chehalis basin is located between the Cascade arc and the Coast Range in southwest Washington State. It consists of sedimentary and volcanic rocks deposited throughout the Cenozoic and is underlain by the Siletzia terrane, a thick, large igneous province accreted in the Eocene. Here, we constrain evolution of the Chehalis basin depocenter using isochore maps derived from isostatic gravity anomalies, borehole data, and stratigraphy for several time periods: the Eocene (47.6–36.8 Ma), the Oligocene (36.8–20 Ma), and the Neogene (20–0 Ma). Our results suggest that local subsidence is driven by deformation on faults that bound and intersect the basin. We see northward depocenter migration, interpreted as a shift in deformation from the northwest striking Cedar Creek fault to the west striking Doty fault. We interpret these data in terms of the long-term north-south shortening and clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc. During the Eocene, the Cedar Creek fault was preferentially aligned with north-south shortening, but became less active when clockwise rotation brought the Doty fault into east-west alignment with the stress field. Sediment accumulation rates decreased from 196 m/Myr in the Paleogene (∼40–20 Ma) to 27 m/Myr in the Neogene (∼20–0 Ma) as Miocene uplift of the Coast Range limited accommodation space and shifted the depositional environment from marine to fluvial. Our results are consistent with the geologic evolution of the Portland and Tualatin basins to the south and reveal a depositional and structural history uniquely shaped by clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc.

Across-track tilt concept for sun glint mitigation in future Earth-observing missions

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 13:28:25

Sun glint is a major limitation for spaceborne optical remote sensing of aquatic environments, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. By dominating the at-sensor radiance, sun glint complicates atmospheric correction and reduces the quality of aquatic reflectance products derived across Earth observation missions. This study presents a machine learning framework to quantify sun glint probability and evaluates the across-track tilt observational concept as a potential sun glint mitigation approach for satellite remote sensing missions. More than 14,000 cloud-free Landsat 8 and 9 scenes were analyzed to quantify glint occurrence as a function of sun-sensor geometry, latitude, and season. Logistic regression and machine learning models identified solar zenith angle (SZA), wind speed, and viewing zenith angle (VZA) as the primary predictors of sun glint probability, achieving >98% classification accuracy. Sun glint contamination was found to be negligible for SZA > 40° but frequent at SZA <35°, particularly in forward-scattering geometries. Introducing a 3° across-track westward tilt reduces the proportion of glint-contaminated pixels by ~21% in tropical and subtropical regions, while larger tilts of 6°, 9°, and 12° yield reductions of 43%, 59%, and 74%, respectively. These findings underscore the value of incorporating glint mitigation strategies in future Earth observing mission designs. A modest across-track tilt, combined with post-acquisition glint detection and correction, offers a practical pathway to increasing the availability of high-quality aquatic observations for monitoring inland and coastal water quality and ecosystems.

3D Elevation Program—Conterminous United States

Jonesi, Alexander; Thatcher, Cindy; Stoker, Jason — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:43:00

Using 3D Elevation Program data, a modern illustration of the conterminous United States’ landscape showcases its elevation differences in vivid detail. This map has been consistently adjusted and colorized according to the highest and lowest elevations, accentuating differences across the conterminous United States. To further emphasize landforms, shaded relief has been added on top of the elevation colors.

Tectonically driven integration of the 4.8 Ma Colorado River USA tracked with detrital sanidine and fish genetics

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 19:37:28

The development of the continental-scale Colorado River system, western USA, from 8 to 4.8 Ma, is revealed using 60-40 Ma detrital sanidine tracer grains and fish phylogeny. Here we show that precursor paleoriver segments became integrated north to south as traced by 60-40 Ma sand grains that were derived from the north and sequentially appeared in the 25-8 Ma Browns Park Formation of Utah, 7-6 Ma upper Bidahochi Formation of Arizona, and 4.8 Ma Bouse Formation of the lower Colorado River and proto Gulf of California. This timing is mimicked by molecular clock estimates of divergence times among fish lineages. River integration was a response to headwater uplifts in the Yellowstone hotspot track and Rocky Mountains. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages refine the timing for mantle-drips that caused subsidence, then uplift, of depositional basins that influenced the integration pathway and tempo. The ~ 3-million-year timescale suggests that multiscale mantle-driven uplift, rather than lake spillover, was the primary driver for integration of the proto-Colorado River through Grand Canyon.

Determination of baseline water-quality conditions using continuous specific conductance and discrete measurements of total dissolved solids and selected major ions, Arkansas River Basin, Colorado

Miller, Lisa; Eng, Lauren; Sharp, Jackson B. — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:41:45

From 2022 through 2024, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Regional Resources Planning Group (Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District, Colorado Springs Utilities, Pueblo Water, Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District, Aurora Water, and Upper Arkansas Water Conservancy District) established a basinwide water-quality monitoring network in the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. The study leveraged ongoing continuous measurements of streamflow and specific conductance (SC) at 13 sites along the main stem Arkansas River and Fountain Creek from the USGS 07108600 Arkansas River at Granite, Colo., (Ark Granite) site to the USGS 07137500 Arkansas River near Coolidge, Kansas, (Ark Coolidge) site. Baseline water-quality conditions were established using data from October 1989 through September 2022 to help identify changes in water quality that could result from changes in land and water use.

Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration was the main indicator of general water quality in this study because it can be accurately estimated from SC and is sensitive to changes in streamflow, water operations, and source contributions. Median TDS concentrations in Arkansas River samples (October 1989 through December 2023) ranged from 75 milligrams per liter (mg/L) at Ark Granite near the headwaters to 3,660 mg/L at Ark Coolidge near the Colorado–Kansas State line. Distinct seasonal differences in median streamflow and TDS were apparent during the winter and summer months.

Seasonal Kendall tests showed no significant trends in monthly mean streamflow (October 1995 through September 2022) at Arkansas River sites upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Upward trends in TDS concentrations and loads occurred only at Ark Granite. Downward trends in streamflow, TDS concentrations, and TDS loads occurred at Arkansas River sites from USGS 07109500 Arkansas River near Avondale, Colo., to Ark Coolidge. Downward trends in streamflow and SC (surrogate for TDS) were more prevalent during winter base flow months and may indicate changes in groundwater quantity, and possibly groundwater quality, potentially affecting the river water-quality condition.

The digital archivist: Automating legacy macroseismic data processing using large language models

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 16:17:42

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to automate the extraction and structuring of macroseismic observations from summary reports. We apply this workflow to the 22 March 1957 M 5.3 Daly City, California, earthquake as a case study. We used Gemini to extract addresses, originally assigned modified Mercalli intensity values, and descriptions from each report. To address coordinate precision limits, addresses were geocoded via Google’s Geocoding application programming interface. This workflow yielded over 2300 geocoded intensity reports for the Daly City earthquake. We use the geocoded accounts, with the original report intensity assignments, to develop a shaking intensity map that in some respects rivals modern Did You Feel It? Maps. We also extract and present data for the 9 February 1971 M_L 6.7 Sylmar, California, earthquake. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs for reliably extracting and analyzing large, unstructured macroseismic datasets. LLMs offer a scalable solution for rapidly digitizing macroseismic archives, enabling their broader use to constrain ground‐motion models in modern seismic hazard analysis and to improve our understanding of site effects in urban areas. The concepts explored here may also be applied to the handling of other legacy seismological and earth science data.

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Mon, 6 Jul 2026 15:27:19

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M_w 7.8 Pazarcık and M_w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Three new calcium formate reference materials for δ13C measurements and a redetermination of the R(13C/12C) ratio for VPDB based on proton nuclear magnetic resonance measurements

Mon, 6 Jul 2026 14:54:48

Rationale

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (¹H NMR) spectroscopy are independent techniques for determining the isotope ratio R(¹³C/¹²C) in organic compounds. However, the lack of suitable reference materials has limited intercalibration of results from these methods.

Methods

Three high-purity calcium formate isotopic reference materials were developed, each ideal for accurate isotope ratio measurements by both ¹H NMR and isotope-ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). For each material, R(¹³C/¹²C) was determined by ¹H NMR, and the relative isotope abundance (δ¹³C_VPDB-LSVEC) by IRMS. The combined IRMS and NMR results were used to determine the R(¹³C/¹²C) value of Vienna Peedee belemnite (VPDB).

Results

The combined datasets yield a value for R(¹³C/¹²C) of 0.0111050 ± 0.0000047 (k = 2) for VPDB, which is 6.7‰ lower than the commonly cited value of 0.011180, but similar to other recent determinations. These three calcium formate reference materials exhibit high accuracy across both analytical methods and provide robust tools for instrument calibration, method validation, and inter-laboratory comparison in carbon stable isotope ratio analysis.

Conclusions

An accurate R(¹³C/¹²C) value for VPDB strengthens the link between relative (δ¹³C_VPDB-LSVEC) values from IRMS and R(¹³C/¹²C) isotope ratios from NMR and other techniques. These three calcium formate isotopic reference materials (USGS106, USGS107, and USGS108) are available from the US Geological Survey and provide reference materials for calibration, method validation, and inter-laboratory comparison in carbon isotope ratio analysis.

Mars as one system: Insights from the 8th international conference on Mars polar science and exploration

Tue, 5 May 2026 15:59:07

The 8th International Conference on Mars Polar Science and Exploration (ICMPSE) provided new insights into the complex interplay between Martian ice, climate, and atmospheric dynamics. The conference emphasized a holistic view of Mars as a system, where surface processes, subsurface ice, atmospheric dynamics, and historical climate shifts are interconnected. Research updates spanned cutting-edge remote sensing techniques and observations, terrestrial analog studies, and theoretical modeling, providing a multidimensional view of Mars' dynamic history and present-day activity. Numerous presentations highlighted the importance of understanding Mars as an integrated and dynamic system where surface and atmospheric processes interact over various timescales. This paper synthesizes unresolved questions and the major themes discussed, including mid-latitude glaciation, the evolution of the polar layered deposits (PLDs), terrestrial analog studies, climate modeling, and future mission planning. The findings contributed to refining models of Martian climate history, assessing the potential for extant life, and planning future human exploration. We also discuss the historical perspective of Mars Polar Science and new findings since the 7th conference in this series and anticipate the next four to 20 years of science on Mars related to ice, climate, and the atmosphere.

A simplified two-station approach for modeling metabolism in dam tailwaters subject to diel flow variation

Wed, 1 Jul 2026 15:11:21

Tailwaters are ubiquitous and highly managed ecosystems whose food webs often rely disproportionately on autochthonous energy. In situ continuous dissolved oxygen data are increasingly being used to estimate gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration in rivers, but this approach is complicated in tailwaters, where upriver discontinuities (i.e., dams) violate commonly employed one-station approaches. In such cases, two-station metabolism models can be applied, although substantial diel variation in flow (a common outcome of hydropower production) requires more complex treatment of water parcel travel times. Here, we present a new two-station metabolism model that allows estimation of reach-scale gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration in streams and rivers that experience within-day variation in flow. Our approach simplifies two-station variable flow model implementation compared to previous efforts. We apply our model to a 6-yr dissolved oxygen time series and use Bayesian inference to estimate daily gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and gas exchange velocity (k₆₀₀) for a ~12-km reach of the Colorado River downriver of Glen Canyon Dam. We compare our model's performance to a more mechanistically detailed and computationally intensive Eulerian dynamic flow model and also to a widely-used one-station model that uses assumptions of reach uniformity that are often strongly violated in tailwaters. These comparisons show that our metabolism estimates conform with output from the more detailed dynamic flow model and that the one-station approach deviates substantially from both two-station approaches. Our new stream metabolism model can help resolve a fundamental analytical impediment in tailwater ecology.

Mercury biomagnification across food webs with varying non-native fish presence: Implications for native fish conservation in the upper Colorado River Basin

Wed, 1 Jul 2026 14:53:39

Environmental contaminants and non-native species introductions negatively affect aquatic ecosystem conservation. Mercury (Hg) accumulates within food webs where it can biomagnify to toxic concentrations, which can be affected by altered trophic relationships from non-native species. This study examined Hg concentrations (n samples = 655) and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope (n = 746) compositions in native (n = 313) and non-native (n = 342) species among four river subbasins (Gunnison, Lower Green, Colorado-Dolores, and White-Yampa), in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) during 2016 and 2017 to inform the potential combined effects of Hg exposure and non-native species interactions on native fishes of conservation concern. We assessed Hg biomagnification at the fish assemblage level, compared concentrations to risk thresholds for fish and human health, and evaluated niche overlap among trophic levels across subbasins. The generalist-invertivores feeding guild had the lowest Hg concentrations (0.001–0.191 μg g⁻¹ wet weight), and no individuals exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency aquatic life criterion (0.225 μg g⁻¹). Piscivores had the highest concentrations (0.008–1.840 μg g⁻¹), and 74% of individuals exceeded the criterion. Biomagnification across trophic levels was observed throughout the UCRB, yet varied by subbasin, with higher magnification factors in the Lower Green and White-Yampa subbasins which also had the highest proportion of non-native species. Stable isotope compositions revealed niche overlap among native and non-native species. Additionally, trophic position varied within species among the subbasins. The proliferation of non-native species has likely reshaped food webs and may have intensified the potential threat Hg poses to native fish recovery and conservation. This study documented increased Hg concentrations relative to past assessments, suggesting that continued monitoring could assist in evaluating trends in Hg accumulation. Particularly studies that focus on sources entering the food web, vectors for accumulation, and competitive interactions among native and non-native species.

Flood-frequency estimates for Kentucky streamgages based on data through water year 2021 and results of updating the fundamental layers in Kentucky StreamStats

VonIns, Branden; Webber, J.; Follette, Danielle; Jeffords, Thomas — Wed, 1 Jul 2026 17:15:34

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, analyzed flood-frequency statistics for streamgages in Kentucky. Using annual peak-flow data through water year 2021, flood-frequency estimates were computed for 261 streamgages, including unregulated and regulated sites as well as sites with mixed regulation records. Methods followed those outlined in “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency—Bulletin 17C” (U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 4–B5). These estimates included flows corresponding to annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2 percent. Temporal trend analyses using the Mann-Kendall test indicated that 18 percent of unregulated streamgages with (1) at least 30 years of peak-flow record and (2) peak-flow record at least as recent as water year 2000 showed statistically significant trends, most of which were weak to moderate increases in peak flows. Concurrently, the fundamental geospatial datasets that support the Kentucky StreamStats application were updated by using high-resolution digital elevation models and hydrography datasets to derive flow direction, flow accumulation, and stream definition rasters. Comparisons of regression-based flood-frequency models using the old and new layers demonstrated consistent results, with a statewide root-mean-square error of 0.019, in the base-10 logarithm of cubic feet per second. Furthermore, to assess model performance, flood-frequency estimates made by using the updated layers and previously published regression-based models were compared to flood-frequency estimates newly computed by following Bulletin 17C. This analysis showed the models performed adequately for most Kentucky stream locations. The updated statistics and geospatial layers provide stakeholders with more accurate, current data for flood-risk assessment, infrastructure design, and water-resource management.

Seasonal estimates of nutrient loading, sources, and impacts on water availability in streams across the conterminous United States, 2000–2020

Tue, 7 Jul 2026 17:26:29

Excess riverine nutrients can limit water availability for humans and ecosystems. Nutrient monitoring on individual stream reaches provides important information about current and past conditions, yet most river reaches are unmonitored. Additionally, monitored data integrate effects of upstream sources, sinks, and pathways by which nutrients get into streams, making explicit planning for effective nutrient reduction strategies challenging. We developed and applied dynamic SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to quantify total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) delivery and source-specific loading in all stream reaches of the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a seasonal timestep from 2000 through 2020. Between one third and one half of non-point source nutrients lagged more than one season in their delivery to CONUS streams over the study period. The largest sources of nutrients that were applied and delivered to streams within a season were agricultural fertilizers, treated wastewater, atmospheric deposition, and manure. Increases in loads were widespread across the CONUS and predominantly associated with increased loading from lagged delivery of non-point source inputs and current season fertilizer application. Model results also identified extensive areas where predicted seasonal concentrations frequently exceeded the National Rivers and Streams Assessment “poor” criteria. Increased loading occurred in areas with high yields and delivery to downstream receiving waterbodies, particularly across the Midwest, raising the risk of negative impacts to downstream water availability. The modeling approach presented here provides a continental-scale framework for identifying when, where, and why nutrients are generated and how that may ultimately impact receiving waterbodies.

A sea ice entrapment event in the southern Chukchi Sea: Analysis and prediction

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:44:26

Amplified Arctic warming is reducing sea ice cover, which is driving an increase in geopolitical interest in the region as it offers the possibility of reducing shipping times between Asia, Europe, and eastern North America, at the risk of increased ice hazards. Here, we examine the case of the Norseman II research ship that was trapped by sea ice in the southern Chukchi Sea for 14 days in June 2024. This is the first study of its sort in this region. We show that anomalously thick and extensive sea ice was present north of the region prior to the event, and that strong northerly winds in early June advected this ice southward, trapping the ship. Later in June, southerly winds advected ice northwards away from the ship, helping to free it. We further show that the event was forecastable.

Loss and transformation of coastal wetlands due to global change in the conterminous United States: Past, present, and future

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 18:19:20

Coastal wetlands are being transformed by global change, impacting the ecological and societal benefits provided by these ecosystems. Synthesizing knowledge of historical and expected future transformations in coastal wetlands can help inform forward-looking planning and stewardship efforts. Here, we review anticipated future ecological transformations in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States and contrast them with past transformations. We examine trends at the national scale but focus in detail on the following six wetland-rich regions: (1) Everglades, (2) Mississippi River delta, (3) Chesapeake Bay, (4) San Francisco Estuary, (5) Puget Sound, and (6) Great Lakes. This review is among the first to integrate and compare coastal wetland transformations in the Great Lakes with their oceanic counterparts. Between 1850 and 1970, wetland losses across the nation were high because coastal wetlands were viewed as flooded wastelands needing to be drained, filled, or excavated to make room for other land uses. Over the last 50 years, growing public and scientific appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits provided by coastal wetlands has fostered tremendous gains in wetland restoration and legal protection. Looking to the future, climate change and accelerated sea-level rise have become critical threats to coastal wetlands and are emerging as major drivers of ecological loss and transformation. This review synthesizes regional knowledge regarding past, present, and future changes to help coastal scientists, environmental managers, and the public better anticipate and prepare for future coastal wetland transformations due to climate change, accelerated sea-level rise, land-use change, and other aspects of global change.

Improved estimates of relative occurrence and abundance using opportunistic surveys and presence-only observations: A zero-inflated integrated species distribution model

Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:01:32

Modeling tools for estimating and forecasting shifts in species distributions are becoming increasingly valuable for conservation planning and response. This is especially true for wild bird populations, which have been declining across habitats and regions. Species distribution models (SDM) represent a diverse set of tools with options for addressing various sources of bias. Complex spatial processes associated with rare or clustered species can be accounted for using zero-inflated SDMs, whereas biased survey data can be integrated with additional data sources to improve estimates. Each option addresses an important and common source of bias, but the two SDM frameworks have not been implemented together previously. We present a novel zero-inflated extension of an integrated SDM framework for a Poisson regression (ZI-iSDM), allowing for the estimation of independent occurrence and abundance processes by integrating opportunistic survey and presence-only data. We validated performance of this ZI-iSDM using simulated datasets under different degrees of species rarity and density on the landscape as well as sampling bias in opportunistic datasets. We additionally applied this model to real survey data for multiple wild bird species using publicly available observation data combined with open-access environmental information to describe habitat associations. We found that integrating presence-only data, such as banding or harvest events, can compensate for potential deficiencies in opportunistic surveys by expanding sampling to be more representative of available and used habitat. Additionally, models that first differentiated occurrence and abundance using a ZI term were better suited for approximating distributions of spatially clustered species.

Geochemistry of the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption: A comparison with earlier historical summit reservoir eruptions, with implications for magma supply and recharge

Rhodes, J.; Trusdell, Frank A.; Lynn, Kendra; Downs, Drew; Vollinger, Michael — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 14:32:36

On November 28th, 2022, following a record historical repose period of 38 years, Mauna Loa erupted about 145 × 10⁶ m³ of lava and tephra over a 15-day period. The eruption was confined to the summit caldera region and the upper Northeast Rift Zone and is remarkably homogeneous in composition in both time and space. In these respects, it is typical of prior shallow summit reservoir magma bodies, recently estimated to be at a depth of around 1–2 km beneath the caldera. In contrast with these earlier magma bodies, which typically contain 6.7–7.1% MgO and are perched at the low-MgO end of olivine-control trends, the 2022 lava and tephra are more evolved with 6.24 + / − 0.03% MgO. This implies a temperature difference of around 11 °C with the prior 1984 magma. The simplest explanation is that over 38 years, cooling and crystallization of the remaining 1984 magma body has significantly exceeded magma recharge, giving rise to the evolved 2022 magma. The problem with this model is that we know from a variety of geophysical observations that in those 38 years, Mauna Loa has been erratically inflating, with heightened periods since around 2000 attributed to magma recharge. To reconcile these differences, we suggest instead that the 1984 magma cooled and crystallized much more extensively, from 1166 °C to around 1106 °C, co-crystallizing plagioclase, clinopyroxene, pigeonite and subsequently enstatite instead of pigeonite. At this point, the residual 1984 magma would have an MgO content around 4.2% and been about 50% solidified. Subsequent recharge and mixing by dominantly reservoir magmas, derived from a deeper 3–4-km intermediate magma reservoir, eventually produced the 2022 magma.

Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in the Buda Limestone of Texas, 2025

Wed, 1 Jul 2026 17:12:12

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 12 million barrels of oil and 184 billion cubic feet of gas in the Buda Limestone of Texas.

Cascadia Subduction Zone science: Call for the next generation community seismic velocity model

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 15:33:10

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) hosts major seismic and tsunami hazards, yet key questions persist about the relationship between margin structure, fluid distribution, episodic tremor and slip, shallow megathrust behavior, shaking and tsunamigenesis, and the resulting hazard estimates. Addressing these problems requires an empirically grounded, three‐dimensional seismic velocity model to illuminate subsurface structure and properties and to provide a basis for geophysical studies such as earthquake simulations and ground‐motion estimation. In May 2024, the National Science Foundation‐funded Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) community velocity model (CVM) working group, with U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners, convened a workshop to identify priorities for such a model. Participants emphasized the features necessary for addressing key science questions, including implementing findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability (FAIR) access, capturing along‐strike and along‐dip structural heterogeneity, resolving shallow offshore–onshore structure, constraining elastic properties and quantifying their uncertainties for numerical wave propagation simulations, their validation benchmarks, and supporting associated accurate earthquake ground‐motion simulations and hazard assessments. This article describes the priorities defined in the workshop, and a description of how, guided by these needs, CRESCENT plans to develop multiple generations of a CVM to advance CSZ science and improve seismic and tsunami hazard modeling across the Pacific Northwest. The CVM will span the CSZ from the surface to ∼100 km depth, offshore and east of the Cascades into Idaho (∼132°–110° W) and the southern and northern tectonic regime transitions (∼36°–52° N) to capture the entire tectonic system as well as its surroundings.

Mid-Cretaceous porphyritic magmatism in the Beartooth Mountains of the northern Laramide foreland and its connection to Frontier Formation sediment dispersal in Bighorn basin, Montana-Wyoming (USA), and Cordilleran tectonism

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 14:50:54

Porphyritic intrusions in the southeast Beartooth Mountains and porphyritic cobbles from the Torchlight conglomerate of the Cenomanian Frontier Formation in Bighorn basin (Montana-Wyoming, USA) bear striking resemblance. We utilize geologic mapping, petrography, geochemistry, and geochronology to characterize rocks from both locations and test whether the Beartooth Mountains area was the provenance for Bighorn basin cobbles. Mapping on Line Creek Plateau in the Beartooth Mountains shows three units with porphyritic phenocrysts consisting dominantly of plagioclase, plagioclase + potassium feldspar, and plagioclase + quartz. Petrography shows embayed quartz, opacitic rims, and zoned plagioclase. Geochemistry characterizes the intrusions as trachydacite to trachyte and trace elements exhibit enrichment in light rare earth elements and slight depletion in heavy rare earth elements relative to primitive mantle. Zircon U-Pb dating shows substantial Archean inheritance and ca. 104−92 Ma dates; some samples display multiple mid-Cretaceous date populations. Bighorn basin porphyritic cobbles exhibit similar modal mineralogy, near-identical geochemistry, and Archean inheritance and mid-Cretaceous geochronology. We suggest the porphyritic cobbles were sourced from basement-hosted porphyritic intrusions now exposed in the Beartooth Mountains, given that geochemistry does not agree with coeval volcanic sources along the Frontier Formation depositional fairway (Idaho batholith) or sedimentary-hosted Beartooth Mountains porphyritic sills intruded into Cambrian shale. Stratigraphic evidence does not support kilometer-scale mid-Cretaceous Beartooth Mountains exhumation to expose basement-hosted porphyritic intrusions, and we therefore present a volcanic hypothesis to bring rocks to the surface. This mid-Cretaceous multimillion-year magmatism is unexplained by tectonic models for the north-central Laramide foreland, and thus we further explore the emplacement processes, spatiotemporal significance, and tectonic implications of these rocks.

Thermal infrared and ultraviolet remote sensing of sulfur dioxide gas emitted during the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kilauea, Hawaiʻi

Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:10:12

Ultraviolet (UV) remote sensing is widely used to detect volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) due to its high sensitivity and favorable spatial and temporal resolution. However, significant discrepancies have been reported between ground-based and satellite-based UV observations of dense volcanic plumes. A notable example is the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea, where SO₂ emission rates derived from ground-based Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements differed substantially from those obtained by the spaceborne Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). In this study, we investigate these differences by applying thermal infrared (TIR) satellite retrievals using a modified version of the SO₂-ALTA algorithm to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations. The resulting TIR-derived SO₂ fluxes are compared with ground-based DOAS data, satellite UV observations, and petrological estimates of gas emissions. Our results show strong agreement between TIR-derived fluxes, ground-based DOAS measurements, and petrological estimates, particularly during the peak and plateau phases of the eruption. In contrast, satellite UV-derived SO₂ emissions are systematically lower. We find that TIR observations are more effective in quantifying high-concentration SO₂ plumes in the near-vent region, while UV measurements are more sensitive under lower-concentration conditions but more affected by scattering in optically dense plumes. These findings highlight the complementary strengths of UV and TIR remote sensing techniques and emphasize the importance of accounting for plume density and observation geometry when interpreting satellite SO₂ retrievals.

Colored shaded-relief bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter maps of Jenkinson Lake with orthomosaic of the Sly Park Creek and Hazel Creek area, California

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 14:17:19

The Caldor Fire was ignited on August 14, 2021, and burned almost 222,000 acres (898 square kilometers) in forested terrain of the central and western Sierra Nevada, California. During the subsequent two months, the fire burned nearly all of Sly Park Creek watershed in El Dorado County. The El Dorado Irrigation District manages the water supply for the area using storage in Jenkinson Lake, a 1.6-kilometer- (1.0-mile-) wide and 3.6-kilometer- (2.2-mile-) long reservoir, located south of the town of Pollock Pines. Several weeks after the fire, the U.S. Geological Survey began investigations into post-fire landscape responses, including sediment yield, by measuring new sediment deposition in Jenkinson Lake. This study focused on the collection and processing of bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter data, as well as onshore aerial imagery in and around Jenkinson Lake, to support wildfire science after the Caldor Fire. A colored shaded-relief bathymetric map (sheet 1) and an acoustic backscatter map (sheet 2) show the lake floor morphology and backscatter intensities.

Flood-inundation maps of the Blue River and major tributaries in and near Kansas City, Missouri, 2023–25

Wed, 1 Jul 2026 17:10:31

Digital flood-inundation maps for 35.5 miles of the Blue River, in and near Kansas City, Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Kansas City. Maps were also developed for a combined 7.3 miles of Brush Creek (4.4 miles) and Indian Creek (2.9 miles), two primary tributaries to the Blue River in the study reach. The flood-inundation maps, available through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding, depth of water above first-floor elevations in selected buildings, water velocity, water-surface elevations, and time of travel corresponding to selected water levels or gage heights (hereafter referred to as “stages”) at nine reference USGS streamgages—five on the Blue River (USGS station numbers 06893590, 06893578, 06893500, 06893150, and 06893100), two on Brush Creek (USGS station numbers 06893562 and 06893557), one on Indian Creek (USGS station number 06893390), and one on the Missouri River (USGS station number 06893000). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from USGS Water Data for the Nation at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service National Water Prediction Service at http://water.noaa.gov/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at seven of these sites (USGS station numbers 06893000, 06893590, 06893578, 06893500, 06893150, 06893557, and 06893390).

Flood profiles were computed for eight map reaches by means of two-dimensional hydraulic models. The models were calibrated using the USGS-developed stage–streamflow relations at each reference streamgage. Two map reaches on the lower Blue River also include the effects of backwater from the Missouri River on flood inundation extent and hydraulic characteristics.

The hydraulic models were used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datums. The profile stages ranged from the National Weather Service “Action Stage” or near bankfull to a stage exceeding the highest recorded water level at each streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a nonvegetated vertical accuracy of a maximum 10-centimeter root-mean-square error) to delineate the area flooded at each water level and the associated hydraulic characteristics.

The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel, resource managers, and residents with information that could be critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 16:03:55

Wildfire risk mitigation on private property is central to reducing community wildfire vulnerability. Homeowners have control over many of the key factors that contribute to wildfire risk on their parcels, yet vulnerable conditions persist. One potential explanation is a misalignment between homeowners' and trained assessors' perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk. Prior research has documented a “risk gap” in a single community wherein owners often underestimate their parcel-level wildfire risk; however, it is unclear whether such misalignments are widespread. This study replicates and expands previous research by examining the parcel-level wildfire risk gap in 38 wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities across the Western United States using paired data from household surveys and parcel-level wildfire risk assessments by trained assessors. We find that homeowners and assessors often perceive parcel characteristics differently. Homeowners may systematically mis-weight their importance, tending to underweight key controllable factors such as building materials and defensible space, leading to meaningful divergence from trained assessor ratings. Accordingly, we also find that homeowners generally underestimate overall parcel wildfire risk compared to trained assessors. These results suggest that even when homeowners recognize attributes on their parcels that contribute to wildfire risk, they may not fully grasp how much the attributes contribute to overall parcel risk, potentially failing to recognize the need to undertake meaningful mitigation actions. The findings from this study contribute to the broader natural hazards literature on expert-layperson risk perception gaps and offer insights for improving wildfire communication, education, and mitigation strategies in WUI communities.

What a difference a day makes: When and where are daily satellite observations of morphology and deformation needed during volcanic eruptions and unrest?

Mon, 6 Jul 2026 16:14:00

Daily high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery at active volcanoes could be used to anticipate eruptions and save lives, but is only rarely available or used in real time. Specifically, daily repeat coverage of ground deformation, topography, and surface morphology at volcanoes is now possible using high-spatial resolution optical and radar imagery (< 10 m/pixel). However, multiple satellites are needed—either constellations of four or more sibling satellites or a “virtual constellation” using several different types of satellites. As part of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (G-VEWERS) project of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), we review case studies at both erupting and restless volcanoes to identify scenarios where near-daily radar (both backscatter images and interferometric products) or optical data captured noteworthy changes, including Merapi and Mount Agung, Indonesia; La Soufrière, St. Vincent; Colima, Mexico; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; and Fagradalsfjall, Iceland. Finally, we consider the resources needed to scale this globally. There are 40–50 volcanoes erupting at any given time, but currently only about 10% have daily imaging at high-spatial-resolution. The allocations of high-spatial-resolution imagery available through G-VEWERS and other open datasets (~10,000 scenes/year) are < 60% of what is needed (~17,000 scenes/year) for daily imaging of all restless and erupting volcanoes. We therefore propose criteria to prioritize where daily satellite high-spatial-resolution observations may be useful continuously or under emergency conditions based on the threat and the type of volcano/eruption.

The path to FAIR research models: Lessons learned

Kettner, Albert; Hsu, Leslie; Serna, Brandon — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 15:42:13

Numerical modeling of Earth surface processes emerged as an important scientific tool in the late 1960s to mid-1970s, driven by the development of finite element methods in computer science. These advancements, initially applied in civil engineering, enabled scientists to simulate complex geological phenomena. At that time, models were often only described in publications, access was limited to researchers with direct connections to the developers, and the code was rarely documented for reuse, limiting their application beyond the original research context. The FAIR principles (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) as applied to data began to take shape in the 21st century with the rise of open science, digital repositories, and standardized data sharing frameworks. In the late 2010s, grassroots movements began to apply some of the FAIRness goals to numerical models. Subsequently, more formalized FAIR model principles were developed that addressed the specific needs of the scientific modeling community, resulting in the formulation of the FAIR principles for research software (FAIR4RS).

In this study, we examine the development and implementation of strategies by two geoscience research infrastructures – the CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) Model Repository and the U.S. Geological Survey Model Catalog – to enhance the FAIRness of models guided by FAIR4RS. Some of the development and implementation efforts described predate the formalization of FAIR and FAIR4RS principles, making this an ongoing and adaptive process. We evaluate the temporal progression towards increased FAIR4RS alignment across three phases of research infrastructure development: prototype, refinement, and growth and iteration. Although certain principles were more straightforward to implement early in prototypes of the catalog infrastructures, others required broader community collaboration during refinement, and some continue to pose practical challenges in the growth and iteration phase. By tracing these dynamics, our aim is to provide insights that can guide other modeling initiatives in effectively adopting FAIR4RS principles within their communities.

Steps toward a satellite-based global volcano monitoring and early warning system: From pilot to demonstrator to GVEWERS

Tue, 7 Jul 2026 14:00:28

The consequences of volcanic eruptions span a broad range. Large explosive eruptions that recur every several hundred to thousands of years can impact global climate, but even small eruptions of a magnitude that takes place multiple times each year someplace on Earth can have devastating effects given the large number of people who live near volcanoes. Ground-based monitoring is inadequate or lacking at many of the world’s active volcanoes, but satellite observations can fill important gaps and provide operational awareness of volcanic unrest and eruptions. The need for satellite monitoring of volcanoes has been articulated in numerous international agreements, and for some datasets, like thermal and ultraviolet imagery, daily or sub-daily monitoring has been incorporated into operational volcano surveillance. Utilization of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets, however, has lagged. Since 2014, the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) has sponsored a series of projects designed to enhance access to, and utilization of, high-resolution SAR and optical satellite imagery for volcano monitoring. The efforts have culminated in the development of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (GVEWERS) initiative—a global and sustainable program intended to support volcano hazards assessment and mitigation. GVEWERS builds on lessons learned from a decade of CEOS volcano projects while also providing a foundation for continuing to improve the accessibility and exploitation of satellite data for better anticipating and responding to hazardous volcanic eruptions.

A ground-motion model derived using a generalized mean rupture distance for large slab interface earthquakes

Murray, Jessica; Parker, Grace — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:29:39

Source–station distance is a central input to ground‐motion models (GMMs) for predicting seismic shaking. GMM development uses distance metrics including the Joyner–Boore distance, which is the shortest distance from an observation point to the surface projection of the earthquake rupture, and R_rup the shortest distance to the rupture in three dimensions. Thompson and Baltay (2018) proposed the generalized mean rupture distance R_p to address observed near‐fault ground‐motion saturation. R_p accounts for the contribution to the shaking of all parts of the rupture and provides a simple method for incorporating spatially variable slip. They used R_p to develop a GMM for shallow crustal earthquakes, assuming uniform slip. Here, we investigate the improvement offered by an R_p‐based GMM for large subduction interface earthquakes by recalibrating the path term for a published GMM (Parker et al., 2022) using R_p derived from distributed slip models (DSMs). Inspection of within‐event and total residuals indicates that the recalibrated model fits the data at least as well as an alternative in which the path term was recalibrated using R_rup and the same dataset. Incorporating slip information in its entirety or trimming the DSM geometry is preferable to assuming uniform moment release on a prescribed model fault that extends beyond the actual ruptured area. R_p tuned to minimize model uncertainty is closer to the maximum distance to rupture for peak ground velocity (PGV) than acceleration, possibly reflecting the contribution to high‐frequency shaking of slip on local asperities. However, when the moment is concentrated far from stations, PGV is fit adequately with R_p closer to R_rup⁠. Our results suggest incorporating slip‐derived moment release through R_p could improve GMMs for slab interface events, especially if the implementation of R_p‐based models is refined using a larger dataset of earthquakes with greater geographic diversity to account for regional ground‐motion variations.

The US XPD-24–200—An isokinetic suspended-sediment and water-quality collapsible-bag sampler with point- or depth-integrating sampling capabilities

Mon, 22 Jun 2026 21:29:05

Accurate collection of fluvial suspended‑sediment and water‑quality samples is essential for understanding transport processes, evaluating river health, quantifying loads, and supporting regulatory and management decisions. Since 1939, the Federal Interagency Sedimentation Project (FISP) has led the development and standardization of sediment‑sampling equipment and methods across Federal agencies. Although substantial advancements have been made, the most recent point‑integrating sampler developed in 2006 has notable limitations, including insufficient sample volume for low‑concentration analyses and a mechanically complex pressure‑equalization system required for a rigid-bottle sample container. To address these limitations, FISP collaborated with Carnet Technology to design, fabricate, and test a new collapsible‑bag sampler capable of collecting larger sample volumes and operating as either a point‑integrating or depth‑integrating sampler. The resulting sampler, the US XPD‑24‑200, was evaluated through controlled tow‑tank tests and field testing in a lake environment.

Results indicate that the US XPD‑24‑200 can collect a 5.5-fold increase in maximum sample volume than a pre-existing point sampler developed in 2006. The US XPD‑24‑200 performs isokinetically within the expected intake efficiency (IE) range under most conditions. Approximately 73 percent of IEs fell within the target range of 0.9–1.1. A mild bias was observed with IE values outside this range that were predominantly lower than 0.9 and occurred most frequently at the lower test velocities, whereas only 2 percent of IEs exceeded 1.1, primarily at the highest velocities tested. Tow‑tank tests produced tightly clustered IE values with low variability, demonstrating stable performance under controlled conditions. Lake towing tests exhibited more variability, reflecting natural environmental influences such as turbulence, temperature gradients, and unsteady inflow. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the US XPD‑24‑200 provides reliable IEs comparable to existing samplers while offering increased sample volume, reduced mechanical complexity, and enhanced operational flexibility.

Bridging remote sensing advances and management needs for small Prairie Pothole waterbodies using a multiscale accuracy assessment

Lothspeich, Audrey Claire; McKenna, Owen; Vanderhoof, Melanie — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 16:00:18

Remote sensing of surface water provides a powerful tool to inform the management of waterfowl habitat, but there is little information available to directly assess the relative accuracy of different remote sensing datasets. Our objective was to understand how the characteristics of remotely sensed inundation datasets inform dataset accuracy, the reliable detection of small waterbodies, the distribution of surface water, observation frequency and completeness of data: all attributes relevant to the management of waterfowl habitat. We compared surface water composites from 10 remotely sensed surface water datasets from 2016 to 2021 to in-situ surface water data for three complexes of small waterbodies in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region and evaluated their accuracy at the pixel, waterbody and local landscape scales. While all products had high per-pixel balanced accuracies (>0.75), we found distinct differences in waterbody area and landscape distribution estimates among datasets. Sentinel-1-based datasets provided a more complete set of observations over time and were more sensitive in detecting water presence in smaller waterbodies but were less accurate at identifying waterbody area than other datasets evaluated. Landsat datasets, alternatively, produced simpler landscape distributions that largely omitted the smallest waterbodies. While the datasets that either fused Sentinel-1 and −2 data collections or utilized local training data had the highest performances (e.g. balanced accuracy = 0.92), all datasets had use-case scenarios for which they may be informative. Our comparisons revealed differences that were not evident in traditional pixel-scale accuracy assessment, such as an 18-fold difference in the number of inundated waterbodies identified across remote sensing datasets. These findings provide novel insights for waterfowl conservation management on howremote sensing datasets may differ in their ability to monitor annual spring surface water presence within landscapes dominated by small waterbodies, such as the Prairie Pothole Region.

A practical framework for identifying genetic subpopulations and ESUs: Insights for IUCN assessments and broader management

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:38:38

Species conservation assessments evaluate extinction risk, and recovery potential, advancing species persistence through guiding resource prioritization and planning. Assessment frameworks, including the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and Green Status of Species, typically focus on species as a whole. Importantly, they do not routinely account for genetically distinct units or do not have standardized methods of unit delineation. This limits the representation of genetically distinct components, including adaptive genetic diversity that underpins long-term resilience and recovery. Incorporating standardized within-species units like subpopulations and Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) into species assessments could help address this oversight. However, identifying and delineating such units remain challenging, particularly when molecular data are limited. Here, we propose a flexible framework that integrates molecular and non-molecular evidence to identify both subpopulations and ESUs across taxa, providing a practical tool to incorporate within-species diversity into conservation assessments.

Abundance, trends, and challenges facing mountain goats throughout their North American distribution

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:27:45

Recent declines among some mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) populations have heightened concern about their current status and ability to cope with future challenges. We conducted a range-wide assessment of the status of mountain goats across their distribution to understand the extent and patterns of change in recent years. We queried states, provinces, National Parks, and Indigenous governments with territories and reserves containing local wild populations, requesting updates on estimated mountain goat abundance and trends over time, as well as qualitative assessments of conservation challenges. We supplemented the questionnaires with existing literature (both published and available from agency websites). We subjected a subset of mountain goat population time−series to exploratory meta-analyses, examining covariates associated with rates of change. Respondents identified 203 units within which estimates were documented, a majority of which were raw counts from aircraft; fewer jurisdictions used site-specific sightability models, mark-recapture statistics, or other approaches to account for imperfect detection. Jurisdictions updated unit-specific estimates on average every 4.0 years (SD = 2.9, Min–Max = 1–24 years). Among 152 qualitative estimates of trends of native populations, 3% were reported as having increased substantially, 10% as having increased slightly, 24% as having declined slightly, and 14% as having declined substantially (49% reported either no detectable trend or insufficient data to identify a trend). Among 133 estimates of trends of introduced or pioneering populations, 5% increased substantially, 24% increased slightly, 20% declined slightly, and 11% declined substantially (40% reported no detectable trend). Jurisdiction-wide abundance estimates were lower than those previously published in all jurisdictions except Colorado and Oregon, and in Alaska, where trends were unclear. Intrinsic rates of increase (r) were positively associated with the population being introduced or pioneering, negatively associated with heavy snow and, to a lesser extent, with drought, but were not associated with abundance or presence of hunter harvest. Existing evidence suggested that many local populations, especially native populations, have declined, but understanding of specific causes has been constrained by limited monitoring capacity. Greater spatiotemporal monitoring effort and detailed studies would inform appropriate strategies to address threats and future challenges to mountain goats.

Evaluating groundwater quality influences from oil field operations and other anthropogenic activities in an urban setting, Santa Fe Springs, California

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 14:16:43

Groundwater quality is often affected by anthropogenic activities in urban settings. This study examines groundwater quality in and around the Santa Fe Springs Oil Field in Los Angeles County, California, where oil and gas production commonly intersects with high density industrial, commercial and residential land uses. Utilizing a combination of new and historical data, we evaluated potential pathways that would allow for oil field formation fluids to migrate into groundwater and whether mixing may have occurred based on the distribution of groundwater and oil field formation fluid tracers in samples. Samples were analyzed for a wide array of constituents including volatile organic compounds, light hydrocarbons, major ions, and various isotopic compositions. Despite evidence of oil field infrastructure providing potential pathways of migration via uncemented annular spaces, casing breaches and historical disposal of oil field formation water in surface ponds, the distribution and occurrence of stable isotopes of water, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids do not indicate mixing of oil field formation water and groundwater. However, methane isotopic signatures and the presence of heavier alkanes suggest gas from oil-bearing formations have migrated from depth via oil field well infrastructure. Volatile organic compound detections were mainly from manufactured compounds unrelated to oil and gas production, with a relatively limited number of petroleum hydrocarbons also detected. Volatile organic compounds were generally found in wells tapping shallow, modern aged groundwater, indicating anthropogenic activities occurring at or near land surface as the source. Study results suggest that while oil field infrastructure provides migration pathways for oil field formation fluids to be introduced into groundwater, urban land uses not related to oil and gas production are the primary drivers of groundwater quality degradation.

Comparison of data handling techniques for modeling bat acoustic activity

Isenhour, Zachary; Hunter, Elizabeth; De La Cruz, Jesse; Ford, W. Mark — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 14:09:32

With the proliferation of acoustic sampling to investigate bat distribution and ecology, researchers have implemented a myriad of statistical modeling approaches to interpret findings. Bats are taxa of high conservation concern; therefore, ensuring the accuracy of species-level habitat association models is critical for informing management. We sought to determine prediction differences among statistical approaches to modeling counts of acoustic detections, using generalized linear mixed models with 8 acoustic data-handling techniques. We applied each approach or combination of approaches to a rare species, the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), and a common species, the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis), from summer survey results on a landscape in south-central Pennsylvania, USA, 2024. We evaluated the accuracy of habitat association models of bat acoustic activity at the species level using cross-validation and compared resulting predictions of models using spatial correlations. We determined that filtering data by automated identification software (Kaleidoscope Pro), the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) P-value thresholds reduced relative mean absolute error (rMAE) in cross-validation of northern long-eared bat models. Using the MLE-retained data produced the most accurate predictions over using raw data or the overly conservative match ratio data. However, for the eastern red bat, the results from the most conservative approach of only retaining data with at least a 90% match ratio from software development training sets had the lowest rMAE. We have provided evidence that the current standard of filtering data by nightly MLE can result in more accurate and informative habitat-use acoustic activity models for rare bat species.

Landscape change and age ratios for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) herd units in Wyoming,1980-2019

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 13:44:12

No abstract available.

Dietary composition and diversity in an endemic island bat, the Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus semotus)

Pinzari, Corinna; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Peck, Robert W.; Courtot, Karen — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 14:04:42

Due to the importance of sufficient diets, conservation practices for endangered bats often involve protection and restoration of foraging resources. For insectivorous (or arthropodivorous) bats, detailed knowledge of prey consumption can inform effective management. In this study, we used metabarcoding techniques to investigate the diet of Lasiurus semotus, a primarily insectivorous, solitary foliage-roosting endangered bat endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. To determine diet composition and how it relates to sex, reproductive condition, and habitat, we analyzed 141 guano samples collected from across the Hawaiian archipelago between 2010–2021. We detected 424 arthropod prey items, with Lepidoptera — the most common order (found in 100% of all samples), followed by Blattodea (85%), Coleoptera (42%), Orthoptera (47%), Diptera (33%), and Hemiptera (25%). Coleoptera were more frequent in guano collected from females. Prey richness and evenness at the family-level were similar across sex, reproductive condition, elevation, and land cover type. High variability among samples, and the dominance of Lepidoptera and Kalotermitidae (Blattodea), indicates that local prey abundance may influence L. semotus diet more strongly than prey richness and evenness. Lasiurus semotus consumed both native and non-native arthropods, including several invasive agricultural pests. Our study demonstrates that hoary bats in the Hawaiian Islands consume a wide variety of prey types, likely sought over an extensive range of habitats.

Exploratory ecology of reintroduced elk in Virginia

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 16:07:46

Reintroductions of extirpated species are an important tool in wildlife conservation. Understanding how reintroduced populations acclimatize to novel environments can lend insight into social learning that in turn is valuable for assessing reintroduction success and maximizing efficacy of subsequent efforts. During 2012, 2013, and 2014, the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources implemented soft releases of elk (Cervus canadensis) translocated to southwestern Virginia from eastern Kentucky. We investigated home range establishment and post-release movements of these reintroduced elk (n = 60). We found adults moved farther from the release site than either yearlings or calves (F = 6.93, p = 0.001). Elk released in 2012 and 2013 took similar amounts of time to establish home ranges (median 181 days, range 108–214 days; and median 189 days, range 147–209 days, respectively), but individuals released in 2013 remained closer to the release site ( $\bar{x}$ = 605.5 m, SD = 335.7 m, closer) presumably by joining established social groups. However, the 2014 cohort generally took longer to establish home ranges (median: 231 days; range: 56–258 days) and moved farthest from the release site ( $\bar{x}$ = 1360.2 m, SD = 293.9 m, farther than 2012 individuals) possibly due to the larger cohort size and resulting intraspecific competition, or the earlier release date that year. Our findings suggest the number of consecutively released cohorts, the timing of the release, and the composition of age classes for released individuals are important considerations for reintroductions.

Evidence for a biological origin of uranium-rich carbon masses within the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of Pakistan

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 17:52:09

Thucholites are unique organic structures found in igneous and sedimentary rocks composed of a U-C-rich interior enclosed by an organic outer shell. Their formation and occurrence have perplexed scientists for over 100 years. Typically, thucholites are sparse in sedimentary rocks but where found in abundance, they may be the result of rapid paleoecological disruptions, e.g., volcanic ashfall. Here, we evaluated thucholites from the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of the Indus Basin in Pakistan using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS) to propose a two-stage mechanism for thucholite development. NanoSIMS results suggest organic matter in thucholite cores formed by biological fractionation (represented by the presence of lighter ¹³C/¹²C and ³⁴S/³²S) while the outer organic mantle formed via radiolysis-induced polymerization. FESEM elemental analysis confirms compositional differences between the two thucholite components (core and mantle), further implying their contrasting origins. Dimensional comparison of thucholite cores and their U-bearing mineral morphologies to ancient and modern U-biomineralized microbes suggests that the thucholite cores formed from metal-biological interactions. The presence of volcanogenic biotite, alkali feldspar, and clay spherules (interpreted as devitrified volcanic glass) with thucholite suggests that the thucholite cores in the Salt Range Formation are biological responses to rapid paleoenvironmental change from volcanic eruption which preserved the fossilized morphologies of Proterozoic microorganisms.

Incorporating location uncertainty improves inference with stop-level North American Breeding Bird Survey data

Burner, Ryan; Hostetler, J.; Kirschbaum, Alan — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 17:24:19

Ecological models should account for uncertainty to be most effective and useful. Yet, uncertainty from model covariates—unlike that from other sources, such as sampling error or process variability—is seldom explicitly incorporated. This can cause underestimates of uncertainty to cascade through model parameter estimates, predictions, and downstream uses. Burner et al. proposed a method for quantifying uncertainty in covariates and incorporating it into models using informative Bayesian priors. This method was applied to stop-level Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) analyses, where land cover uncertainty at each stop arises from substantial stop location uncertainty. A limited validation of model-estimated land cover, using stops with known locations, indicated the method’s potential effectiveness, but it was not rigorously evaluated. We conduct a robust simulation-based test, generating stop locations, extracting land cover, and simulating bird communities across 210 BBS routes in the upper Midwest. We compare 3 models: a “known” model with true land cover, a “naive” model assuming consistent 800-m stop spacing, and a “full” model using informative priors to estimate land cover. Species parameter estimates and predicted prevalence patterns across gradients in land cover from the full model approached those of the known model and were substantially closer to the true values used in simulations relative to those from the naive model. Naive model parameters were more biased relative to the other models, and credible intervals of predicted species prevalence rarely included the true simulated values. The full model also produced land cover covariate estimates closer to true simulation values relative to the mean informative priors. Our results show that, for the BBS, informative priors enable more accurate stop-level analyses despite location uncertainty. In contrast, naive models that ignore this uncertainty yield poor inferences. More broadly, we demonstrate empirically the utility of informative priors to account for covariate uncertainty in ecological models.

Osmium isotope constraints on Mauna Loa–Kilauea magmatic connectivity, Island of Hawai‘i

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:27:36

The Hawaiian volcanic chain exhibits a long-recognized double track of volcanism defined by the Loa and Kea trends, which erupt chemically and isotopically distinct lavas. Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, the two most frequently active volcanoes of the Loa and Kea trends, produce distinct endmember compositions. However, historical periods of compositional convergence have prompted debate regarding a potential magmatic connection between the two adjacent volcanoes. Proposed links include a shallow edifice-level plumbing system, a common magma source at ∼40 km depth, or a deeper asthenospheric source. In the latter scenario, based on correlated Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes and trace-element systematics, a “shared” mantle source supplies melt alternately to both volcanoes on multi-decadal timescales. Here, we use Os isotopes to evaluate the proposed connections. We measured Os isotopes in eight historical Mauna Loa tholeiites along with three Kīlauea tholeiites (1832 summit eruption; Uēkahuna Bluff; 2000 Pu‘u‘ō‘ō eruption) previously identified as isotopically intermediate between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea endmembers. We found that the acidic bromide leachates of all samples yield more radiogenic ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os than corresponding bulk residues, with the labile Os-bearing phase comprising ∼0.4–27% of bulk Os. Mauna Loa tholeiites display nearly constant ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os over the past ∼200 years (0.134–0.136; mean = 0.1357 ± 0.0013, n = 8, 2SD), despite large variations in total [Os] ranging from ∼30 pg/g (2022 tholeiite) to ∼966 pg/g (1868 picrite). The Kīlauea 1832 sample has ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os = 0.1302 ± 0.0008, slightly higher than the Kīlauea endmember (0.1285 ± 0.0008), whereas the Uēkahuna Bluff and Pu‘u‘ō‘ō samples exhibit more elevated ratios (0.1314 ± 0.0008 and 0.1327 ± 0.0008, respectively). We conclude that the “shared” mantle source exerts negligible control on Mauna Loa Os isotope systematics. In contrast, the Kīlauea mantle source is more heterogeneous, with contributions from small-scale recycled domains with variable time-integrated Re/Os ratios.

Development of a two-dimensional hydraulic model for the Kalamazoo River between the Trowbridge and Allegan City Dams, Michigan

Roland, Collin; Vaughan, Angus; Fitzpatrick, Faith; Broerman, Heidi M.; Lund, J. — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 13:58:05

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a two-dimensional hydraulic model for a 9.2-mile reach of the Kalamazoo River between the Trowbridge and Allegan City Dams. The model simulates streamflow conditions with spatial coverage and resolution that would be difficult or dangerous to document with field measurements, enabling assessments of habitat connectivity and substrate stability to support dam removal and restoration planning. The model was calibrated with surveyed water surface elevation (WSE) profiles, streamgage WSE time series, and measured depth-average velocities. Modeled WSE profiles had root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.20 and 0.32 foot. Cross-sectional average velocities were slightly underpredicted, with RMSE of 0.28 and 0.30 foot per second (ft/s). Channel roughness varied with stage, and the high-flow model reproduced streamgage WSE time series with an RMSE of 0.04 foot. Quasi-steady simulations at 4,000 cubic feet per second (ft³/s), about the 50-percent annual exceedance probability streamflow, indicated that cross-sectional average velocities within 3.4 miles downstream from Trowbridge Dam were commonly between 3 and 4 ft/s, occasionally exceeding 4 ft/s. Farther downstream, velocities seldom exceeded 3 ft/s. Simulated shear stresses were used to estimate substrate stability in the reach. At 4,000 ft³/s, the minimum stable grain size along most of the main channel was predicted to be in the pebble range (4–64 millimeters), and sands and silts were predicted to be stable in the floodplain and backwaters.

Preliminary geology of the North Meadow Creek Area, Tobacco Root Mountains, southwest Montana: The North Meadow Creek Fault

Fuis, Gary; LeClair, Parker; Ruleman, Chester — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 21:04:05

This report documents a previously unmapped fault, informally referred to herein as the North Meadow Creek fault, on the east flank of the Tobacco Mountains of southwestern Montana. This fault has an apparently long and complex history, including Quaternary offset of an older alluvial terrace, offset of a debris flow of presumed Pleistocene age, offset of rhyolite lava flows of presumed Tertiary age from their presumed source several kilometers east, on the opposite side of the fault, and offset and possible rotation of blocks of Archean gneiss on northeast side of the fault. The western part of the fault is covered by glacial moraines of two apparent ages, both Pleistocene.

An integrated drought early warning system to support coldwater fisheries management

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 18:24:49

Low streamflow resulting from drought and human water use is a threat to freshwater fisheries throughout western North America, creating a need for effective tools to aid management and fisheries use. We developed a drought early warning framework that forecasts river conditions that could result in temporary fishery closures and restrictions across Montana’s renowned trout fisheries. This tool provides reach-specific, probabilistic decision support for proactive management under drought conditions. We calibrated statistical models using historical streamflow and stream temperature data from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges to predict the likelihood of exceeding the low-flow and high-temperature thresholds for fisheries closure within 1- to 4-week outlooks during the warm season (May–October). These forecasts demonstrated consistently high model performance in predicting the criteria for low-flow fishing closure across all rivers (4-week outlook: mean R² = 0.96, IQR [interquartile range]: 0.94–0.97) and variable but often high model performance for temperature-based restriction criteria (mean R² = 0.80, IQR: 0.55–0.86), particularly at sites that frequently experience higher stream temperature conditions. This drought early warning system—available via the web-based tool TroutCast (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/troutcast/)—provides daily updated seasonal forecasts to help anticipate effects to recreational fishing opportunities. By quantifying forecast uncertainty and providing reach-specific probabilities, the system supports proactive management, improves coordination between fisheries and water managers, and provides stakeholders with actionable information on probable future effects on fishing access within a framework that is broadly applicable to other freshwater systems and water resource management challenges.

Long-term intermittent connection between the western Snake River Plain and Columbia basin: A two-phased incision history of Hells Canyon

Wed, 1 Jul 2026 11:16:07

For more than a century, researchers have debated the route of the Snake River across the northern Cordillera and U.S. Pacific Northwest, including the associated incision history of Hells Canyon. Here, we use detrital zircon U-Pb provenance analysis of Miocene strata upstream and downstream of Hells Canyon to constrain the evolution in fluvial pathways over time. Downstream of Hells Canyon, we show that the ca. 10−6 Ma Clarkston Heights gravel was dominantly sourced from the nearby Salmon and Clearwater rivers but also with substantial input from drainages that now flow into the western Snake River Plain. These same western Snake River Plain drainages were contributing to time-equivalent Lake Idaho strata, upstream of Hells Canyon, indicating a Hells Canyon fluvial connection between the western Snake River Plain and Columbia basin before 6 Ma. Results from Lake Idaho strata suggest a two-phased lacustrine history in the western Snake River Plain: Before ca. 6.0 Ma, lake strata were derived from local tributaries, suggesting that the western Snake River Plain was isolated from the modern upper Snake River system. Between ca. 4.3 Ma and 2.2 Ma, the source area expanded to include eastern tributaries in conjunction with migration of high-standing topography of the Yellowstone hotspot. Our results challenge the long-held hypothesis of “capture” of the Snake River through Hells Canyon. Instead, we infer that Hells Canyon was a long-established route for outflow of lakes occupying the western Snake River Plain, possibly intermittently, during a ca. 10−2 Ma phase of slow regional incision, followed by rapid incision in Hells Canyon starting ca. 2 Ma in conjunction with erosion of the topographic barrier impounding Lake Idaho.

Glacier fed deltas and new age constraints for glacial Lake Grand Gorge in the northern Catskill Mountains of New York State, USA

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:09:27

Ice-dammed lakes were common along the southern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet during deglaciation. In the Schoharie Valley of the northern Catskill Mountains, New York, a 171 km² lake known as glacial Lake Grand Gorge formed in an interlobate area. Previous researchers suggested that deltas developed into this glacial lake from meltwater supplied by the adjacent Hudson Lobe during deglaciation. This study investigates stratigraphy and sedimentology of Pleistocene deltas and lake deposits to determine the source of meltwater and sediment. Detailed examination of stratigraphy from quarries, stream exposures, and new exploration borings was combined with radiocarbon and OSL geochronology to establish event stratigraphy. Sedimentologic and geomorphic data from deltas in the Manor Kill and Platter Kill Valleys demonstrates that braided outwash was supplied directly from the Westerlo Sublobe that crossed the northeastern escarpment of the Catskill Mountains. New geochronologic data indicates that the lake was established by 28 ka and likely persisted to at least 22 ka. Insects and twigs recovered from lake sediments complement the OSL data and indicate: (1) that the lake was present significantly earlier than previous deglacial models predict, and (2) that it existed in an ice-free area of the northern Catskill Mountains during the last glacial maximum of the MIS 2 glaciation.

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting North Dakota's economy

Guidero, Elaine — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:08:36

Introduction

As the northernmost Great Plains State encompassing two geomorphological areas divided by the Missouri River, North Dakota has varied needs for high-resolution elevation data. The top industry in North Dakota is agriculture and related products, and the fastest growing sector is natural resources led by oil and gas extraction and mining, all of which contribute to the State’s economy (U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2024b). Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP; refer to sidebar) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better (table 1) to meet the many needs of the Nation and North Dakota. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in North Dakota is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification 2025 Rev. A (https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment (Dewberry, 2012) identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $12.39 million in new benefits annually to the State. The top nine North Dakota business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Petrography and mineralogy of selected pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Deasy, Ryan; Lupo, Mary; McAleer, Ryan; Horton,, J. Wright — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 17:01:48

Florida is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains. These strata have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic, or basement, rocks that underlie the Coastal Plain in Florida are known only from drill cores and cuttings recovered from a relatively small number of boreholes. This data report presents petrographic observations and the results of X-ray diffraction analyses of basement rocks from 18 boreholes across Florida in support of the identification, discrimination, and correlation of units for a subcrop geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic rocks composing Florida’s sub-Coastal Plain geology.

Geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:37:12

Much of the southeastern United States, including all of Florida, is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains which have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks that underlie these coastal plains in Florida, here collectively referred to as “basement,” are known only from a relatively small number of boreholes. This scientific investigations map presents an interpretation of the basement geology in a 1:1,000,000-scale subsurface geologic map with supporting text, data, and figures. The subsurface mapping methodology integrates petrographic, geochronological, thermochronological, geochemical, and mineralogical analyses of drill cores and cuttings in the context of regional geophysical data.

The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks of Florida consist of the Gondwanan (West African) Suwannee terrane which was accreted to Laurentia during the Alleghanian orogeny and subsequently intruded by Permian granites, superposed by early Mesozoic rift basins, and partially overlain by bimodal Jurassic volcanic rocks. The younger basement components, specifically the Southwest Florida volcanic province, North Florida tholeiites, early Mesozoic rift basins, and Alleghanian granitoids, have correlative and contemporaneous units throughout the Appalachian orogen. In contrast, Florida’s older basement rocks, including Paleozoic siliciclastic strata of the Suwannee basin, North Florida volcanic series, Osceola and Gaskin intrusive complexes, and the St. Lucie Metamorphic Complex, have neither surface exposures nor unequivocal correlates. Major structures include early Mesozoic normal faults and northwest-striking transfer zones such as the Jay fault. Many of these faults define the boundaries of subbasins within the South Georgia rift system. Top-of-basement structure contours show gentle arches and embayments that are also recognized in overlying coastal plain strata.

Quantifying Landsat’s contributions to U.S. agricultural and forestry applications

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 17:31:20

The Landsat program has provided over 54 years of multispectral imagery, contributing vital information for agricultural and forestry scientific research and operational activities. Freely available Landsat data have enabled scientists to analyze land use patterns, assess ecological impacts, and develop strategies for sustainable management. We explored Landsat’s pivotal role through the lens of the United States Group on Earth Observations 2023 Earth Observation Assessment (EOA). The EOA included comprehensive surveys of more than 2000 federally supported Earth observation data products. We subsequently analyzed how Landsat satellite data and derived products support agricultural and forestry-related priorities compared to other Earth observation inputs. We evaluated both direct and indirect applications of the data, identifying key users across federal agencies and assessing how Landsat data contribute to critical products, services, and objectives. The results indicate that Landsat provides key information to support diverse activities across agriculture and forestry sectors, such as enhancing food supply, improving resilience to disaster and disturbance events, maximizing ecosystem productivity and conservation, and supporting regulatory requirements and decision-making. The Landsat OLI and TIRS sensors ranked 4th and 10th, respectively, out of 1171 Earth observation inputs identified in the study, underscoring their value to agriculture and forestry.

Assessing the state of hydrologic science in the Upper Klamath Basin—A comprehensive review of data, tools, and models

Stonewall, Adam; Harden, Tessa M.; Reale, Justin; Cameron, Cortney — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:49:41

Water demand in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) from various stakeholders and ecological needs often outstrips available supply, leading to persistent management challenges. This study reviews the state of hydrologic science within the UKB as of 2025—specifically, the tools, data, and models available for assessing five key components of the water system: (1) surface water; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) groundwater; and (5) water use. The UKB water supply is critical for Native American communities, regional agriculture, and federally listed fishes and faces challenges from competing needs, climate variability, and operational/regulatory requirements. We assess existing datasets, regional and national models, and historical studies to understand the available resources and identify gaps that may hinder integrated water assessments and management. Our findings indicate areas where improvements in data collection and model precision could improve the accuracy of water-availability forecasts and support water-management practices. This review can inform near-term forecasting, assist in optimizing water-resource data collection and management strategies, and support regional water-availability assessments of the basin.

Continental-scale prediction of hydrologic signatures and processes

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 14:40:48

Understanding how dominant hydrologic processes and their drivers vary across diverse continental-scale landscapes is critical for hydrologic modeling and water management applications. Our research addresses this question by synthesizing large-sample watershed datasets, Caravan and GAGES-II, and developing random forest models to identify patterns in hydrologic function. We assessed dominant processes by examining hydrologic signatures – summary indicators of watershed function derived from hydroclimatic time series and random forest models across 14 146 gauged United States watersheds. The results reveal clear continental-scale gradients in hydrologic processes, including baseflow, overland flow, storage, and water balance losses. Our map of dominant processes highlights, for example, the transition from baseflow to fast responses and back to baseflow along the elevation gradient from the Appalachian spine, through the Piedmont, to the Eastern Coastal Plain; a distinct outer ring around the Great Lakes region; and sharp contrasts between coastal and inland processes in the West. Variable importance analysis from random forest models show that processes in the western U.S. are primarily controlled by climate, whereas in the eastern U.S., soil, geology, and topography play larger roles, with distinct human influences apparent in urban areas. Our approach of estimating dominant processes and their drivers facilitates extending process knowledge from research watersheds to the continental scale, assessing current hydrological understanding, and evaluating hydrological model structures.

Field methods, quality-assurance, and data management plan for water-quality activities and water-level measurements, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

Treinen, Kerri; Trcka, Allison; Zingre, Jeffrey; Wehnke, Amy — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:42:53

Introduction

Water-quality activities and water-level measurements conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Project Office coincide with the USGS mission of evaluating the quantity and quality of the Nation’s water resources. The activities are conducted in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho Operations Office. Results of water-quality and hydraulic head research efforts are presented in various USGS and scientific journal publications (refer to Fisher, 2022). These data are stored internally in the Aquarius Time Series and Aquarius Samples databases and are publicly accessible through National Water Quality Monitoring Council (2025) and U.S. Geological Survey (2025). Data collected from our studies are used by researchers, Federal and State agencies, water management and regulatory organizations, as well as the public.

This quality assurance plan (QAP) describes the methods and processes for field methods, data collection, data management, data auditing, and equipment management for both the water-quality and water-level programs at the USGS INL Project Office (hereto referred to as INL Project Office). A comprehensive quality assurance (QA) plan ensures that the processes defined in this document will guide the program staff to collect and publish reliable, useful, and defensible data products for stakeholders. This QAP supersedes previous versions of this document and is intended to complement the Quality Assurance and Data Management (QADM) Plan for the Idaho Water Science Center (IDWSC; Christopher Mebane and Lauren Zinsser, written commun., 2024).

Ecosystem metabolism as an early warning indicator of lake algal blooms

Tassone, Spencer; Foster, Brendan; Maas, Carly; Jastram, John — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 14:30:12

Algal blooms represent ecosystem state shifts that degrade drinking water, restrict recreation, threaten public health, and lower property values. Detecting blooms in advance on management relevant timescales of days to weeks can support proactive intervention. Early warning statistics derived from indicator time series offer a framework for detecting state shifts, but the use of lake metabolic estimates (gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production) in this context has been limited. Here, we modeled lake metabolism using water-quality monitoring data from eight U.S. lakes spanning a trophic gradient to test the hypothesis that metabolic estimates serve as effective early warning indicators of algal blooms. Time series of early warning statistics were analyzed using the conventional Kendall’s tau approach and a complementary threshold-based approach. The threshold-based approach yielded higher bloom detection rates, longer early warning lead times, and fewer false alarms than the Kendall’s tau approach. Across lakes, metabolic metrics detected 86% of blooms, with the strongest early warning signals in oligotrophic, eutrophic, and hypereutrophic systems. However, directly measured water-quality parameters, particularly water temperature and chlorophyll concentration, were the primary early warning indicators of blooms. Overall, these results demonstrate that metabolic estimates can provide early warning signals of bloom development but are secondary to directly measured water-quality parameters, indicating a complementary rather than primary role in early bloom detection.

Rain interacts with directional wind to cause nest failures within breeding colonies of Western and Clark's Grebes

Yen, Anne; Conway, Courtney; Vierling, Kerri — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 14:41:30

Western Grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis) and Clark's Grebe (Aechmophorus clarkii) populations have declined across their range, and they are species of high conservation concern. Cascade Reservoir in central Idaho supports one of the largest breeding colonies of Aechmophorus grebes in North America (and the largest in Idaho), but few offspring are produced from the colony in most years. Low fecundity and little natal recruitment may be the proximate cause of Aechmophorus grebe population declines, but the ultimate cause of low recruitment is not known. One hypothesis for the low fecundity at Cascade Reservoir (and at other grebe colonies in the region) is that waves on freshwater breeding lakes inundate nests and cause pairs to abandon their nests. We tested that hypothesis by examining whether nest survival was negatively associated with changes in daily water level, daily peak wind speed and daily peak wind direction (i.e. winds that push water into the breeding colony). We also included daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation to evaluate a more general hypothesis that weather events caused nest failures. We used aerial imagery obtained from repeated drone flights to create encounter histories for 3888 Aechmophorus grebe nests to then estimate daily nest survival and evaluate whether daily water level, daily peak wind speed and daily peak wind direction (as predicted by the wind-driven wave hypothesis) were important causes of nest failure relative to other factors that commonly affect daily nest survival in birds. Nesting success was alarmingly low and we found some support for the wave inundation hypothesis; the results suggest that nesting attempts are more likely to fail on days with precipitation combined with winds blowing into the colony. Our results are the first to show that wind and precipitation affect the nest fate of Aechmophorus grebes.

Bright spot in eDNA monitoring: Early detection of invasive New Zealand mudsnails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) prompted effective rapid response for fish hatchery

Slobodian, Devin; Hutchins, Patrick; Graves, Jennifer; Sepulveda, Adam — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:59:07

The New Zealand mudsnail (NZMS; Potamopyrgus antipodarum) is a widespread aquatic invasive species that is parthenogenic, requiring only a single individual to initiate an infestation. Fish hatcheries–which are critical infrastructure that raise fish to support conservation, recreation, and subsistence fisheries–frequently use local water sources to provide cool water and are especially vulnerable to NZMS invasion from the contamination of water supplies. If an invasion proceeds undetected, hatcheries pose a risk for compounding the spread of NZMS because their operations transfer live organisms and associated water between hatchery facilities and, when stocking, to rivers and lakes. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Alchesay National Fish Hatchery, located on the Fort Apache Indian Reservation in Whiteriver, Arizona, produces trout to stock in Tribal reservoirs, lakes, and rivers across the southwestern U.S. New Zealand mudsnails were first documented in Arizona in 1995, are now widespread in this region, and occur at the confluence of the hatchery's outflow with the North Fork White River. Contamination of water supplies is the principal pathway for NZMS invasion into the hatchery. Here, we describe early detection environmental DNA (eDNA) surveillance efforts for NZMS at Alchesay National Fish Hatchery. Positive eDNA detections initiated a chain of events that ultimately led to four NZMS individuals being discovered and a rapid response eradication effort. Follow-up eDNA sampling and visual observation efforts after the eradication effort have yielded no detections of NZMS eDNA. We credit the success of this case with four key elements: rapid turnaround times, a robust quality assurance scheme, a proactive eDNA sampling design, and established partnerships. To our knowledge, this is the first published case of eDNA monitoring being used for early detection and successful rapid response for complete removal of an invasive species in a fish hatchery.

Benchmark dataset of historical annual peak floods classified by causal mechanisms for select US river basins

Mon, 22 Jun 2026 14:33:26

Considering the causal mechanisms of floods can improve estimates of flood recurrence intervals given that certain flood types can be associated with higher magnitude and more damaging floods. However, few verified datasets of flood types are available to validate the semiautomated and automated classification algorithms needed to apply flood-typing across large hydrologically diverse regions. To address this gap, a benchmark dataset of manually classified flood types was compiled for 1,763 annual maximum flood peaks from 18 stream gauges in six different river basins across the conterminous United States from 1851 to 2022. Within each basin, three representative stream gauges were selected for manual flood typing. A flexible classification framework is introduced that facilitates flood typing across hydrologically diverse regions and accommodates unique combinations of weather and antecedent watershed conditions specific to each region. Floods were manually typed by domain experts using multiple lines of evidence to identify a primary surface water input of each flood (rainfall, snowmelt, or both) and, if relevant, associated storm type and secondary causal mechanisms characterizing antecedent watershed conditions. Across all the study basins, 49% of historical annual maximum flood peaks were attributable to rainfall, 28% to snowmelt, 22% to mixed precipitation, and 1% could not be assigned to a mechanism due to missing or incomplete data. The proposed flood-typing schema supports varying levels of flood typing specificity required for mixed population flood-frequency analysis, flood-type-specific design hydrographs, water quality response studies, and additional applications. This detailed, manually determined benchmark dataset serves as a resource that can be used developing and validating automated or machine learning-based algorithms capable of operationalizing expanded flood peak information.

Potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin over multiple centuries identified using tree-ring based multi-model streamflow reconstructions

Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:05:43

The Missouri River basin (MRB), the largest river basin in the United States, presents major water management challenges due to its complex topology and extensive infrastructure designed to manage high annual flows. Severe hydroclimatic events, particularly floods in 1993, 2011, and 2019, have highlighted vulnerabilities, leading the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to enhance flood risk assessments in 2023. This study focuses on the full MRB, using tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions to extend the Basin's historic streamflow perspective. We developed annual streamflow reconstructions for the Hermann, Missouri streamgage from water years 1360–1900 using K-nearest neighbor and principal component regression methods. These reconstructions incorporate 183 tree-ring chronologies (1360–2020) and modeled natural streamflow (1901–‍2020). Reconstructions were evaluated for consistency using statistical measures and wavelet analysis. Both methods produced similar results, confirming their reliability in reconstructing multi-century streamflows. This novel methodology, guided by wavelet analysis, was developed to identify potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin (LMRB), resulting in the identification of 172 potential flood events from water years 1360–2020, with 126 events common to the two versions of the MRB reconstructions. The reconstructed streamflow records showed an increase in the number of events until the late-18th- or mid-19th-century. These findings provide insights into evolving flood characteristics in the LMRB. The novel methodology developed in this study can be used to identify potential flood events from tree-ring based annual streamflow reconstructions and generally be applicable to other river basins.

Production of mineral commodities and geospatial map of the mineral industries and related infrastructure of China

Chung, Jaewon; Neustaedter, Elizabeth; Moon, Ji Won; Xun, Sean; Textoris, Steven — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:33:49

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission to distribute global mineral information and analyze supply chains, this study provides a comprehensive review of the global significance of China’s mineral production and capacity in 2023. Of 77 mineral commodities in the USGS dataset, China produced 74 and was the world’s first-ranked producer for 39 of the 74. Compared to the high share of global mineral production, including up to 98 percent of global gallium production, the country’s share of global mineral reserves was relatively small, ranging from 20 percent (zinc ore) to 52 percent (tungsten ore). China’s imports of metal ores, slag, and ash accounted for 64 percent of global imports of such commodities by value. The country’s exports of base metals and articles of base metal accounted for 17 percent of the global exports. To help nongeographic information system users assess the spatial distribution of mineral mines, processing facilities, and ports for trades in China, this study created a geospatial (also called “georeferenced”) portable document format (GeoPDF) map. In addition, the GeoPDF contains mineral resource tracts (such as antimony, copper, potash, coal, and oil and gas), exploration sites, and energy infrastructure based on the preexisting USGS data.

Tephra from Kīlauea’s 2008–2018 lava lake eruption—Proximal deposits and dispersal characteristics

Swanson, Don; Orr, Tim R.; Patrick, Matthew; Houghton, Bruce — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:15:53

A network of ten buckets was established early in the 2008–2018 summit eruption at Kīlauea to collect proximal tephra ejected from the new, informally named the “Overlook crater”; the buckets were emptied on most days of the eruption thereafter. This report summarizes the results of more than 2,400 different sampling intervals (most 1–3 days long) during the eruption, focusing on the physical and dispersal characteristics of the tephra deposits. The network was within about 300 meters south of the vent to capture tephra dispersed by the dominant northeast trade wind. The juvenile tephra mainly reflected spattering at the southeast (SE) sink, a downwelling area in the southeastern part of the lava lake in the Overlook crater that remained in the same area throughout the eruption, with admixtures of solid rock and secondary minerals derived from the wall of the crater. The proportion of juvenile material to lithic material ranged widely early in the eruption but was generally greater than 90 percent for the last 6 years of the eruption as lake level rose and the crater walls decreased in height and became more stable. The accumulation rate of tephra at each bucket was strongly dependent on the location of the bucket and reflects the interplay between lava lake level and wind direction and speed. The mass per unit area (m/a) of collected tephra was a maximum of about 97 kilograms per square meter for the entire eruption, equivalent to a thickness of about 75 millimeters. Thirty-two explosive events with a volcanic explosivity index of −2 to −4 deposited much of the tephra in the network. Fifteen of these rock-fall-induced events occurred within 6 days of one another. Pele’s hair, a volcanic glass predominantly associated with quieter activity at the vent in the final half of the eruption, was dispersed more than 60 kilometers downwind from the lava lake and formed a nearly continuous deposit near the Overlook crater. This eruption was probably the most frequently sampled long-lasting eruption in history, but most of the deposits are ephemeral. The collected samples, although generally of small mass, are retained by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and are available for detailed study.

A genomic tool to tackle cryptic diversity demonstrates the potential for off-target use of GT-seq panels

Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:38:33

A comprehensive understanding of life history is vital to successful species conservation and management. When different life history stages are accompanied by considerable morphological or cryptic variation, such as the egg and larval phases exhibited by most fishes, genomic tools are essential for identifying species so that early-life ecology questions can be studied. Genotyping-in-thousands by sequencing (GT-seq) has recently emerged as a targeted and efficient approach for species identification. We leveraged existing genomic and transcriptomic data to develop a GT-seq panel capable of differentiating the members of the Coregonus artedi complex, a radiation of salmonids in the Laurentian Great Lakes whose members are indistinguishable with mitochondrial DNA barcoding loci and are the focus of bi-national conservation initiatives. Our panel of 494 loci was able to assign fishes in the C. artedi complex to species and lake. We examined cross-amplification in other coregonines with overlapping distributions and found that congeneric Lake Whitefish (C. clupeaformis) cross-amplified at 94% of loci and confamilial Round and Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium spp.) cross-amplified at 42% and 38% of loci, respectively. We adapted bioinformatic probes to account for Prosopium-specific variants including 22 new SNPs and developed a whitelist of 428 SNPs capable of distinguishing these whitefishes. Finally, we demonstrated performance by identifying 3,066 coregonine larvae and juveniles collected in spring 2019-2021 from Lake Superior. These results hold promise for future insights into the species-specific ecology of early life coregonines and demonstrate the flexibility of GT-seq panels, which may cross-amplify hundreds of informative genome-wide loci in related taxa.

Availability of dark daytime refuge may limit mysid abundance in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 15:18:28

The zooplankton Mysis diluviana is a major component of the Laurentian Great Lakes food web and has recently declined in abundance in both lakes Michigan and Huron. Drivers of these declines are not well understood. Here, we explore the hypothesis that recent increases in water clarity have contributed to the decline of M. diluviana (mysids) by limiting the availability of daytime dark refuge from visual predators. Using Secchi depth data from 1996 to 2021, we estimate that dark refuge has decreased substantially in lakes Michigan and Huron where mysids have declined, but dark refuge has remained more stable in lakes Ontario and Superior where mysid populations did not decline. Results from a 2021 uncrewed surface vessel hydroacoustic survey and lake-wide, net-based sampling in lakes Michigan and Huron revealed significantly more mysids in areas with dark refuge, such as Lake Michigan’s northern basin. Conversely, Lake Huron contains sparse dark refuge consistent with low mysid densities in that lake. Higher water clarity leading to increased predation may be a primary driver of mysid declines in the Great Lakes.

Estimation, distribution, and development of a surrogate model for Escherichia coli in the New River, New River Gorge National Park and Preserve, West Virginia, 2021–23

Kearns, Matthew; Chambers, Douglas — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:14:14

The New River Gorge National Park and Preserve in West Virginia receives more than 1 million visitors each year, many of whom come to enjoy the New River, which is known for its whitewater recreation. However, most of the tributaries within the New River Gorge are impaired by fecal-coliform bacteria, which are at concentrations that may exceed recreational-contact standards, posing a potential health risk to the public and, therefore, creating a need to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of fecal-coliform bacteria and to communicate this information to park visitors.

Concentrations of Escherichia coli, a species of fecal-coliform bacteria, were monitored in the New River and selected tributaries from October 2021 through September 2023, with emphasis placed on the primary recreational-contact season from May through October. Composite and cross-sectional water samples were taken from three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring locations: the New River at Highway 41 at Prince, West Virginia (USGS 03184905), New River at Thurmond, West Virginia (USGS 03185400; hereafter, Thurmond), and New River at Fayette, West Virginia (USGS 03186000). Periodic longitudinal transects included water samples collected below seven major tributaries of the New River within the gorge. Water-quality parameters, including water temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity, were recorded with each E. coli water sample.

During the 2 years of sampling, E. coli concentrations in samples collected from the New River ranged from less than 1 to 1,100 most probable number (MPN) per 100 milliliters (MPN/100 mL). The recreational-contact standard, which is based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 90th-percentile statistical threshold value for E. coli concentrations (320 MPN/100 mL), was exceeded in 11 of the 110 samples collected from the New River during this study. Water-quality parameter measurements and E. coli concentrations in collected samples were generally consistent among USGS monitoring locations throughout the New River Gorge; however, storm events created notable exceptions because they increased tributary streamflow and E. coli concentrations in samples, particularly at the New River below Piney Creek at McCreery, West Virginia (USGS 03185208), and New River Below Arbuckle Creek at Thurmond, West Virginia (USGS 03185440), monitoring locations. Escherichia coli concentrations of cross-sectional samples tended to be consistent across the New River, except for a few nearshore samples.

Sample E. coli concentrations and corresponding measurements of continuous water-quality parameters, streamflow, and precipitation data from Thurmond and the Piney Creek at Raleigh, West Virginia (USGS 03185000; tributary to the New River) monitoring locations were evaluated for use in a near-real-time E. coli surrogate model. The antecedent mean 24-hour turbidity at Thurmond was selected as the best variable for a simple linear regression surrogate model for the log₁₀ E. coli concentration in the New River and had an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.556 and a p-value of less than 0.001. The regression equation surrogate model suggests that the recreational-contact standard is exceeded when the antecedent mean 24-hour turbidity at Thurmond is 23.6 formazin nephelometric units or higher (with a 95-percent confidence interval of 19.4–30.7 formazin nephelometric units). Evaluated against a turbidity duration curve, this standard is exceeded 7.5 percent of the time at Thurmond. This surrogate model could help New River Gorge National Park and Preserve staff provide near-real-time information about E. coli concentrations and related recreational-contact risks to the public.

Controls on natural hydrogen generation during serpentinization of mantle rocks

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 15:03:29

Mantle rocks undergoing serpentinization can generate significant amounts of natural hydrogen, yet the rates and controlling processes remain poorly understood. Here, we constrain the possible hydrogen generation rates in two distinct mantle rock types, the fertile lherzolites of the Western Pyrenees and the depleted harzburgites of Northern California, to relatively low rates of ~0.1 to ~0.5 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹ km⁻³ of reactive rock. When integrated over the full reactive volumes, this corresponds to total production rates of ~300 to ~600 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹. By combining three-dimensional geophysical inversion with numerical modelling of fluid-rock processes, we show that hydrogen generation rates are mainly limited by H₂ saturation in the fluid and reaction kinetics. Under these constraints, hydrogen generation in mantle-derived serpentinization systems proceeds slowly, making rapid large-scale replenishment unlikely and suggesting that large, economically relevant accumulations, would require timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years to develop.

Development of projected depth-duration-frequency curves for precipitation in Florida, 2020–59 and 2050–89

Irizarry-Ortiz, Michelle — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:17:13

The planning, permitting, and design of stormwater-management projects require estimates of the depths of extreme precipitation for current and future events with specified durations and return periods. In this project, precipitation data from six downscaled climate datasets were used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89. The downscaled climate datasets are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 and include (1) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), (2) Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA), (3) Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), (4) Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting model (JupiterWRF), (5) LOCA version 2 (LOCA2), and (6) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from a historical to future period—were computed for grid cells containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods were developed to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from six downscaled climate datasets.

Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally being greater than 1 and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were found to range within 1.01–1.58 for 2020–59 and 1.01–1.63 for 2050–89, depending on the downscaled climate dataset, region, duration, and return period, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme-precipitation events. When data from all datasets are considered together, median change factors range within 1.04–1.18 for the period 2020–59 and within 1.04–1.23 for the period 2050–89, depending on the region, duration, and return period. Spatial patterns in median change factors were found to vary by dataset.

On the importance of ichthyoplankton monitoring for invasive grass carp control in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 14:49:01

Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) is an invasive herbivore observed in small numbers in the Laurentian Great Lakes since the 1980 s with records from all lakes except Lake Superior. Identification of diploid, age-1 + grass carp from the Sandusky River, a Lake Erie tributary, in 2012, prompted targeted efforts to evaluate the status of grass carp reproduction in the Lake Erie Basin. In 2014, researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey and University of Toledo began surveys to assess grass carp spawning in the Great Lakes, with the first fertilized eggs discovered in 2015 in the Sandusky River. Eight Great Lakes tributaries in the United States have been surveyed for evidence of grass carp spawning, identifying three confirmed spawning tributaries (Sandusky, Maumee, and Huron Rivers in Ohio). Initial work identified specific flow and temperature conditions that likely stimulate spawning. Egg and larval drift modeling estimated spawning locations based on egg development and flow characteristics, which helped removal crews locate and target spawning fish in the Sandusky River and later, the Maumee River. The research synthesized herein demonstrates the value of ichthyoplankton research to inform control of emerging invasive species and could inform management of other invasive carps with similar reproductive life histories, should they enter the Great Lakes.

Comparing in vivo methylmercury detoxification in hunted duck: Implications for wildlife and human health

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 14:30:57

Great Salt Lake (GSL) waterfowl have elevated mercury (Hg) concentrations, and in vivo detoxification of neurotoxic and bioaccumulative methylmercury (MeHg) can occur through Hg-selenium (Se) complexation, influencing the suitability of Hg consumption advisories. Here, we present Hg chemical speciation and Hg stable isotope measurements of brain, breast muscle, liver, and kidney samples from two GSL duck species─northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata) and cinnamon teal (Spatula cyanoptera). Chemical and stable isotope measurements, along with high energy resolution fluorescence detected X-ray absorption near-edge structure (HERFD-XANES) spectroscopy, indicate the occurrence of in vivo MeHg demethylation in both bird species. The percentage of total Hg (THg) as MeHg (% MeHg) varied with tissue type (brain > breast muscle > kidney > liver), and differences between δ²⁰² THg and δ²⁰² MeHg were linearly correlated with % MeHg. Demethylated inorganic Hg was a mixture of Hg-dithiolate (Hg(SR)₂) and Hg-tetraselenolate (Hg(Sec)₄) in both bird species. Notably, liver THg concentrations were elevated in northern shoveler liver tissues relative to those of cinnamon teal (7.54 ± 4.69 mg/kg versus 2.19 ± 1.27 mg/kg, dry weight, respectively) and % MeHg liver values were significantly lower (40% ± 19% versus 68% ± 14%), indicating taxonomic differences in Hg detoxification and depuration. THg concentrations in waterfowl species from this study were comparable to previously reported levels, indicating that elevated Hg concentrations in northern shoveler and cinnamon teal at GSL have persisted over the past two decades. Due to in vivo demethylation, we show that THg is not an effective proxy for MeHg within duck species, carrying implications for current GSL waterfowl consumption advisories and assessments exposure risk. This study highlights important differences in MeHg detoxification between waterbird taxa and provides further insights into Hg toxicity risk to GSL waterbirds.

Network-wide assessment of soil water content calibration and sensitivity to biomass proxies using cosmic-ray neutron sensing in the Roaring Fork Basin, Colorado

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 14:07:26

Soil water content (SWC) is a key state variable of the climate system but is often uncertain in water balance monitoring, especially in alpine environments. SWC measurements can be challenging in alpine environments due to the topography and rocky soils. In 2022, the US Geological Survey's Next Generation Water Observing System Program began research to evaluate water balance monitoring technologies, including cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS). This work evaluated the uncertainty resulting from network-wide calibration of CRNS for SWC monitoring in an alpine watershed and investigated the stability of the calibration parameters across space and time, focusing on potential influence of biomass dynamics. Fifteen stations with moderated and unmoderated (bare) CRNS were deployed and made operational within the Roaring Fork Basin in west-central Colorado. The root mean squared error of the network-wide calibration using the moderated CRNS was 0.042 or 0.047 cm³ cm⁻³, depending on the calibration equation used. Relative SWC dynamics from CRNS were correlated with the in situ probes with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 or 0.87 (depending on calibration equation). We did not find significant relationships between the calibration parameters and stationary site-specific variables. However, the calibration parameters derived from in situ probe SWC dynamics varied over time and were correlated with biomass proxies of cumulative growing degree-day, cumulative growing season index, and bare neutron counts. Future use of the CRNS network can leverage the reliable relative SWC data from network-wide calibration for watershed modeling and continue to research sensitivity of bare neutron measurements to biomass dynamics.

Assessment of undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources in the Amu Darya Basin Province of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan, 2026

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 19:18:27

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean continuous resources of 519 million barrels of oil and 82.9 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Amu Darya Basin Province of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan.

Evaluation of a eutrophication Beneficial Use Impairment in the Grand Calumet River Area of Concern in northwest Indiana, 2021–22

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 17:44:10

Eutrophication has been regularly documented in the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Canal in northwest Indiana. The area has undergone various remediation efforts since the development of a Remedial Action Plan for the area in response to a 1987 amendment to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978 between the United States and Canada and the designation of the Grand Calumet River Area of Concern by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. To address concerns of eutrophication and its effects, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, collected data from the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Canal in 2021 and 2022 to document the effects of remediation and combined sewer overflow releases on water quality.

This study used continuous monitors to collect real time data for dissolved oxygen, water temperature, chlorophyll fluorescence, specific conductance, and pH. Discrete sample analysis included biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, nutrients, nitrogen and oxygen isotopes in nitrate, nitrogen isotopes in ammonia, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in water, and identification of algal communities (cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae) by metabarcoding.

Eutrophic conditions were found throughout the area. Isotopic results indicated the source of nitrate in samples was either from soil organic nitrogen or combined sewer overflows. Combined sewer overflows were shown to have considerable effects on the sites, and remediation status did not have a great effect. Algal community results identified several taxa capable of becoming nuisance species, including Microcystaceae (cyanobacteria) and Chrysophyceae, Cryptophyceae, and Bacillariophyceae (all eukaryotic algae). When sites with irregular flow patterns were excluded from datasets, minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations were often higher downstream from remediated sites than from unremediated sites. This study shows the potential for further and more targeted exploration into the unusual conditions found throughout the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Canal area.

Survey protocols drive heterogeneity in occupancy estimates that cannot be standardized using post hoc analyses

Parvin, Lucas; Jirinec, Vitek; Leu, Matthias; Valente, Jonathon Joseph — Mon, 6 Jul 2026 15:54:11

Site occupancy models are widely used to estimate species distributions from presence–nondetection data, yet for mobile animals, the true proportion of sites occupied varies in time. Thus, true occupancy and estimates generated from different protocols are affected by temporal characteristics of survey design.
Here we tested whether we could standardize occupancy estimates across different sampling protocols with a post hoc statistical test. Using an individual-based movement model of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), we simulated point count surveys across 3000 populations under 90 spatially and temporally variable sampling protocols. For each simulation, we fit a standard occupancy model, then used minute-level detections to truncate surveys and generate occupancy estimates across increasing survey lengths. We fit asymptotic models to these series to estimate intercepts (instantaneous occupancy) and asymptotes (longer-term occupancy) and evaluated how well they approximated true instantaneous, daily and seasonal occupancy.
We were unable to recover instantaneous or seasonal occupancy from any approach. Both standard occupancy models and asymptotic regression (the top-performing asymptotic model) most closely approximated daily occupancy; although asymptotic regression produced slightly less biased estimates, it showed substantially greater variability, resulting in greater overall error.
Our results show that post hoc analytical approaches cannot, at present, reliably standardize occupancy estimates across heterogeneous survey designs. Instead, ensuring biologically informative and comparable estimates will depend on standardized survey protocols.
Practical implication: Monitoring programs using presence–nondetection data should prioritize consistent survey protocols when estimating occupancy for mobile species, with a focus on daily occupancy as the most attainable and useful metric. Although the highest accuracy and precision were achieved under the most intensive survey protocols, for point counts of Wood Thrush and similar species, four consecutive 15–20 min surveys provide near-optimal precision and can be completed in a single visit, making them well suited for estimating relative occupancy under logistical constraints. Three 20-min surveys spaced ~24 h apart closely approximate daily occupancy while maintaining reasonable precision. Developing similar protocols for other species and survey methods will be critical to ensuring comparable occupancy estimates across space and time.

Bathymetric maps, surface areas, and storage capacities of Council Grove Lake and Marion Reservoir, Kansas, and Pine Creek Lake, Oklahoma, 2024

Smith, Kevin; Pierson, Nicholas; Trevisan, Adam R. — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:22:17

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, completed high-resolution multibeam bathymetric surveys to compute new elevation-area-capacity tables for Council Grove Lake and Marion Reservoir, Kansas, and Pine Creek Lake, Oklahoma. Elevation-area-capacity tables identify the relation between the water-surface elevation, surface area, and storage capacity of the lake. The surface areas and storage capacities of each lake were computed from bathymetric surfaces combining multibeam echo sounder data collected in 2024 and light detection and ranging point-cloud data collected in 2016 and 2018.

Characterizing the annual cycle of steroid hormones in males from an invasive vertebrate (Python bivittatus) of management concern

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 14:25:49

South Florida's subtropical climate has facilitated the establishment of numerous invasive species, including the Burmese python (Python bivittatus). Despite decades of efforts to manage the invasive python population across South Florida, we lack a comprehensive understanding of their reproductive physiology, limiting the development of targeted control strategies. Here, we characterized seasonal patterns of testosterone (T) and corticosterone (CORT) in free-ranging adult male pythons and evaluated environmental correlates of hormone variation. Results indicate that T peaks before the onset of the breeding season and declines through the season to baseline levels in the non-breeding season. CORT did not show a clear seasonal trend but showed greater variability during the breeding season. These findings reveal that photoperiod and ambient temperature are key environmental correlates of male hormone cycles, contributing to our understanding of the endocrine phenology of a tropical ectotherm in a novel environment.

Facilitating water resilience in wildfire affected communities: Lessons learned from rapid response research

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 15:05:18

Wildland–urban interface fires (WUI fires) can pose a significant threat to water resources, including drinking water supplies, water treatment infrastructure, ecosystem function, and agricultural irrigation. Wildfires, especially WUI fires, are expected to increase in frequency and severity. Despite the need for effective mitigation and response strategies for wildfires, rapid research co-production to support decision-making for water incident response and water management is generally limited. This manuscript draws on five U.S. wildfire case studies to highlight how research co-production between scientists, water agencies, and managers supports more effective decision-making for water resilience and recovery. The case studies demonstrate the importance of rapid response activities, coordinating collaborative response, pre-wildfire preparation, and knowledge co-production among agencies, researchers, and managers in addressing the impacts of wildfires on water supply and quality. The lessons learned emphasize opportunities to pivot wildfire-water research and operations from reactive to proactive, focusing on mutually beneficial activities such as understanding watershed health, fostering collaboration, embracing new discoveries and tools, and enabling pre-wildfire research through table-top activities, workshops, pre-fire data collection and analysis, and appointing a central water response lead. These outcomes inform the development of a research-to-operations and operations-to-research (R2O2R) co-production framework and future opportunities to guide proactive response and management efforts before, during, and after wildfire.

Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center general information handout

Brown, Sierra — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:09:52

No abstract available.

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus) on the San Dieguito River and upper San Luis Rey River, San Diego County, California—2025 data summary

Howell, Scarlett; Kus, Barbara E. — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 15:00:12

Executive Summary

We surveyed for Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus; flycatcher) at the San Dieguito River and the upper San Luis Rey River in 2025. Surveys were completed at five locations: one along the San Dieguito River (San Dieguito [SD]), which was last surveyed in 2016, and four along the upper San Luis Rey River, including three downstream from Lake Henshaw that have been surveyed annually since 2015 (Rey River Ranch [RRR], Cleveland National Forest [CNF], Vista Irrigation District [VID]), and one upstream at VID Lake Henshaw (VLH) that has been surveyed annually since 2018. There was a minimum of 57 territorial flycatchers (22 male, 35 female) and 3 transient flycatchers of unknown subspecies detected at 1 location (VLH). In total, 37 territories were established, containing 35 pairs (20 males and 35 females) and 2 male flycatchers of undetermined breeding status. Of the 35 pairs, 12 were monogamous pairings, and 23 were polygynous pairings consisting of 3 males each pairing with 2 different females [6 pairs], 3 males each pairing with 3 different females [9 pairs], and 2 males each pairing with 4 different females [8 pairs]).

No territorial flycatchers were detected downstream from Lake Henshaw or along the San Dieguito River. Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater; cowbird) were detected at all five survey locations. No banded flycatchers were detected during surveys.

Flycatchers used only one habitat type at VLH, mixed willow riparian. All flycatcher locations were in habitat characterized as mixed willow riparian dominated by Goodding’s black willow (Salix gooddingii), and 93 percent were in habitat with greater than 95-percent native plant cover.

We monitored flycatcher nests at VLH to collect baseline data on nest success, productivity, and cowbird parasitism rate. There were 33 completed nests monitored in 26 territories; 10 were successful (30 percent). Of the 23 failed nests, 14 were depredated, 5 failed for unknown reasons, and 4 failed because of cowbird parasitism. There were 33 fledglings confirmed in monitored territories, yielding a seasonal productivity of 1.3 young/pair (33 young/26 monitored pairs). One additional fledgling was confirmed in an unmonitored territory during surveys at VLH. Based on 31 nests in which the contents were observed during the egg stage, 23 percent of nests in 2025 were parasitized. In two additional territories where nests were not located, adult flycatchers were observed feeding a cowbird fledgling.

Evaluation of nutrient, alkalinity, and acid-neutralizing capacity stabilities in water samples analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory, 2023–24

Struzeski, Tedmund M.; Wetherbee, Gregory A.; Morrison, Jonathan — Mon, 8 Jun 2026 18:27:12

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the stability of water-sample chemical analysis of nutrient, alkalinity, and acid-neutralizing capacity constituents with respect to the duration between sample collection and laboratory analysis, also known as the sample holding time. A study began in the spring of 2023 to evaluate the sample stability, between 2 and 180 days after sample collection, of the chemical properties and chemical constituents of alkalinity as calcium carbonate, filtered; acid-neutralizing capacity as calcium carbonate, unfiltered; total ammonia as nitrogen, filtered; total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen, filtered and unfiltered; nitrite as nitrogen, filtered; nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, filtered; total nitrogen, filtered and unfiltered; orthophosphate as phosphorous, filtered; and total phosphorus as phosphorus (filtered and unfiltered) in water. Both surface water and groundwater matrices were represented.

Sample instability varied by observed property and matrix; therefore, providing general guidance for sample holding time is not possible based on matrices alone. No correlations between field measurements of sample characteristics and sample instability were observed. Although observations for some properties indicate sample stability that exceeds the recognized U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory method holding times, this is not necessarily the case for matrices and seasonal characteristics that were not investigated.

Based on the limited number of six sample sources used in this study, some patterns emerge for the 12 observed properties studied. Five observed properties generally indicate stability for as many as 180 days after sampling (total nitrogen as nitrogen, both filtered and unfiltered; orthophosphate as phosphorus, filtered; and phosphorus as phosphorus, both filtered and unfiltered). Other observed properties indicate stability for as many as 180 days for some matrices, but not for others. Finally, some observed properties indicate instability well before 180 days.

Spatial and temporal trends of mercury in fish from Duck Valley Reservation Reservoirs, southwestern Idaho and northern Nevada, 2007–24

Murray, Erin — Mon, 8 Jun 2026 16:38:33

The Shoshone-Paiute (Sho-Pai) Tribes of the Duck Valley Reservation, Nevada, manage reservoirs that support commercial and recreational activities, including robust Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout) fisheries that attract anglers year-round. Reservoirs are common environments for methylation and bioaccumulation of mercury, which is a potent neurotoxin when elevated levels are consumed. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Sho-Pai Tribes, measured total mercury concentrations in the muscle tissue of rainbow trout from three Reservation reservoirs in Idaho and Nevada in 2007, 2009, 2013, and 2024. This report highlights spatial and temporal trends of mercury concentrations in rainbow trout in the Duck Valley Reservation reservoirs from 2007 through 2024, and presents limited data on other commonly consumed species, specifically Perca flavescens (yellow perch), Micropterus dolomieu (smallmouth bass), and Micropterus salmoides (largemouth bass). Mercury data are also presented for nearby sites and lower trophic level species. In 2024, two fish sampling methods were used and compared: biopsy muscle plugs and muscle fillets. Results show good agreement between mercury concentrations of biopsy and fillet muscle samples taken from the same fish, with most sample pairs differing by less than 20 percent, though biopsied fish had an unexpectedly high mortality rate. Mercury concentrations increased in Sheep Creek Reservoir during the study period, but no significant trend was observed in Mountain View Reservoir or Lake Billy Shaw. Only 1 rainbow trout out of 160 sampled in the Reservation reservoirs during the study period exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended methylmercury criterion of 0.3 milligram per kilogram of wet weight (mg/kg ww). Largemouth bass, smallmouth bass, and yellow perch had higher mercury concentrations than rainbow trout and may pose a greater risk to consumers. Mercury concentrations in largemouth bass exceeded 0.3 mg/kg ww, although only two fish were sampled, both from Sheep Creek Reservoir. Fish consumption advisories on Tribal lands are determined by the Tribes, and these results may help Sho-Pai managers determine the mercury exposure risk to Tribal members and visiting anglers.

Magnitude and frequency of peak and low flows in the Elkhorn River Basin, Nebraska, 1881–2022

Strauch, Kellan R.; Dietsch, Benjamin — Mon, 8 Jun 2026 17:31:38

Flood-frequency analysis is based on records of annual maximum instantaneous flows observed at long-term streamgages with 10 years or more of operation. Since the last flood-frequency analysis in Nebraska, an additional 30 years of annual peak-flow data have become available, and new flood-frequency analysis techniques have been developed. Moreover, the Elkhorn River Basin in north-central and eastern Nebraska has experienced two of the three highest magnitude floods on record in 2010 and 2019. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Nebraska Department of Transportation, analyzed flow frequency at streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska.

Flow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Nebraska Department of Water, Energy, and Environment annual hydrographic reports were utilized to analyze peak flows. The Peak flow FreQuency (PeakFQ) software was used to perform a flood-frequency and nonstationarity analysis on the selected streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska. Results of the peak-flow nonstationarity analysis indicate that, of the 23 streamgages analyzed for peak-flow frequency, 4 showed trends that were likely increasing for annual peak flows, whereas 3 indicated trends that were somewhat likely to be increasing. For 11 streamgages, the trend was categorized as about as likely as not, meaning there is less than a 70-percent chance of the trend being either upward or downward. Additionally, 2 streamgages exhibited trends that were somewhat likely to be decreasing, and 3 streamgages showed trends that were likely decreasing.

Low-flow streamflows and nonstationarity in the Elkhorn River Basin were analyzed for low flow periods representing the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day flows at 21 streamgages using the Hydrologic Toolbox software. Spatially, the nonstationarity analysis results indicated likely increasing or somewhat increasing trend likelihoods for the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day low flows for many of the Elkhorn streamgages downstream from the Elkhorn River at Ewing, Nebr., streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 06797500) and on eastern tributaries during the period of record.

Variation in diet and lipid content of age-0 sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus sp.) in the lower Missouri River basin

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 19:05:43

Shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) and related endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus) are species of interest in the highly modified Missouri River. Scaphirhynchus sturgeon require long distances of riverine habitat for the development of drifting free embryos along with suitable foraging habitat during the subsequent transition to exogenous feeding. Working with specimens collected by the US Army Corps of Engineers and Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, we examined diet composition of age-0 (<12 cm) sturgeon at four reaches in the lower Missouri River to examine the potential role of prey acquisition at this vulnerable life stage. In general, Ephemeroptera were more represented at reaches further upstream in the lower Missouri River, whereas Diptera larvae were the dominant prey item in reaches downstream. Body condition, as measured by total lipid content and length‒weight regressions, exhibited spatial differences in 2016 but not in 2017. Even with differences in prey frequencies and numbers consumed, percent consumption regardless of prey type remained consistent among reaches within years, but was overall higher in 2016 when river discharge was greater. Although temporal and spatial differences were observed in condition, comparisons using previous data from 2014 and 2015 suggest that these condition results were not driven by the longitudinal variability in prey composition as the reaches below Kansas city yielded relatively high and low lipid values despite the limited consumption of ephemeropteran prey relative to upstream reaches. Although it is unknown if any of the observed differences affected survival, our results, coupled with previous work, suggest that age-0 sturgeon can opportunistically forage in the lower Missouri River.

Open water control of invasive mussels using benthic mats—Part 1, short-term infusion of carbon dioxide under a mat

Mon, 8 Jun 2026 16:46:20

This study compared the efficacy of a benthic mat alone with carbon dioxide infusion under a mat for killing Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas, 1771) (zebra mussel). Three sites were selected in Loon Lake, Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Benzie County, Michigan, for replication of reference, benthic mat, and carbon dioxide mat treatments. Within a site, three 4-meter (m) x 4-m plots were delineated for each treatment and a reference. Pretreatment samples were collected to estimate zebra mussel density and macroinvertebrate community composition in reference plots. Zebra mussels (about 360) from outside of the treatment plots were caged and placed in the plots before treatment. Benthic mats (4.25 m x 4.25 m; polyethylene with a vinyl coating) were anchored on the lake bottom with sandbags and weights. Carbon dioxide was infused under a mat of the same material to a maximum of 200 milligrams per liter (mg/L; pH=6.13) every 2–4 hours, for about 12 hours. Benthic and carbon dioxide mats were deployed for 5 days. One day after mat removal, we assessed mortality of resident and sentinel caged zebra mussels and macroinvertebrate community abundance and diversity in each plot. Average pH (as a proxy for carbon dioxide) under the carbon dioxide mats was between 6.38 and 6.80, equivalent to 170.5 and 103.0 mg/L carbon dioxide, respectively. In the posttreatment survey, few zebra mussels were observed in the benthic mat and carbon dioxide treatment plots compared to the reference plots; survival was lowest in the carbon dioxide plots. Mortality of sentinel caged mussels was greater than 80 percent in carbon dioxide treatments compared to mean mortalities of 20.6 percent and 12.7 percent in the benthic mat and reference plots, respectively. Macroinvertebrate community total abundance was lower in both mat treatments compared to reference plots, but diversity was comparable among all treatments. Our study demonstrated that carbon dioxide treatment near 200 mg/L could produce greater than 80-percent mortality of zebra mussels within 5 days. Refinement of the carbon dioxide mat and delivery system could increase spatial coverage of the treatment and broaden its use to other habitats.

Remotely sensed surface water storage shows distinct patterns from SWAT-simulated data

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:29:25

Quantifying and projecting the downstream benefits of water stored in lakes and wetlands (SW_storage) requires watershed hydrologic models, which often parameterize surface water storage in topographic depressions using static digital elevation model (DEM) data. Calibration and validation of modeled SW_storage dynamics using external data sets is uncommon, particularly across major river basins, with model calibration typically focused on observed discharge. Here, we develop and assess a novel remote sensing-based (RS) SW_storage data set (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2) for verifying simulated SW_storage estimates from a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB; ∼440,000 km²). Our results suggest that static DEM-based parameterization as well as model calibration based solely on discharge do not adequately capture spatial and temporal SW_storage dynamics in the UMRB. Mean SW_storage as estimated by SWAT was 74% ± 122% (mean ± standard deviation) higher than RS SW_storage, where SW_storage in SWAT was underestimated in wetland-rich subbasins and overestimated in agricultural, tile-drained subbasins. Time series of SWAT SW_storage and RS SW_storage were positively correlated in only 38.8% of subbasins. As RS SW_storage is also vulnerable to error, storage estimates were compared to bathymetric data in select small wetlands. While uncertainty remains in the conversion from extent to storage for RS SW_storage, the method and data set presented here are a promising option for improved parameterization and calibration of SW_storage processes in SWAT and other process-based hydrologic models. Further consideration of these storage processes can potentially improve the accuracy of simulated streamflow in wetland-rich model domains.

Scenarios to assess the future water availability in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer for the Cache River and Grand Prairie Regions of Arkansas

Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:41:01

The U.S. Geological Survey, as part of the Arkansas Groundwater Initiative, developed forecast scenarios using previously calibrated MODFLOW 6 groundwater models that focused on the Cache and Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Areas to assess the impact of future climate and water management strategies on the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. A Soil Water Balance model was used to forecast recharge and irrigation water use. The forecast scenario period was from January 1, 2019, through December 31, 2055, with monthly stress periods. Twenty scenarios were simulated and included seven alternate climate forecasts, five 13 general groundwater pumping reduction scenarios (round 1), and groundwater pumping reduction scenarios by crop type and for the Bayou Meto Water Management Project and Grand Prairie Area Demonstration Project (round 2). Declines in saturated thickness within the Cache Critical Groundwater Area were larger for 18 of the 20 scenarios as compared to outside of the Critical Groundwater Area. The largest average increase in saturated thickness inside the Critical Groundwater Area was 6.4 m which occurred for the round 1, 50 percent reduction scenario. Automatic reductions in groundwater pumping by MODFLOW 6 in the Cache simulation ranged from 0.02 to 13.1 percent of total groundwater pumping. For the Grand Prairie model domain, the average change in saturated thickness of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer inside the Critical Groundwater Area for the forecast period ranged between -6.6 to 1.7 m. The average saturated thickness of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer inside the Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Area declined for 16 of the 20 scenarios. The average reduction in requested groundwater pumping for all scenarios inside the Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Area was 25.1 percent, and the largest reduction was 46.5 percent.

Widespread reproductive deficits in Chesapeake Bay ospreys

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 14:25:15

Introduction:

Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) are well-known sentinels of aquatic ecosystem health and are indicators of both environmental contaminants and fish stocks. The Chesapeake Bay supports one of the largest osprey breeding populations in the world, but recent studies have documented declining reproductive performance and increasing food stress in some portions of the estuary.

Methods:

We monitored osprey nests (N = 571) throughout the Chesapeake Bay during the 2024 breeding season and compared breeding metrics between high-salinity (>10 parts per thousand [ppt]) and low-salinity (<5 ppt) study areas. We also compared contemporary breeding performance within four high-salinity sites to historical data collected during the 1980s.

Results:

Salinity was strongly associated with breeding performance and the likelihood that pairs achieved productivity levels required for population maintenance. All high-salinity study areas functioned as demographic sinks, whereas low-salinity areas functioned as demographic sources. Breeding metrics including the proportion of pairs breeding, clutch size, nesting failure, brood reduction, and nestling loss all suggested greater food stress within high-salinity areas. Temporal comparisons documented substantial declines in reproductive performance between the 1980s and 2024 within high-salinity study sites. High-salinity sites during the 1980s exhibited breeding performance comparable to low-salinity sites in 2024.

Discussion:

Although several factors may influence osprey productivity within the Chesapeake Bay, we suggest that reduced availability of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) is a primary driver of poor reproductive performance within high-salinity waters.

High-resolution magnetic survey using an unoccupied aerial vehicle to constrain buried lava flow geometry, volume, and eruptive history of Little Cones, Crater Flat, Nevada

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:41:00

Magnetic surveys are an important tool used to augment geologic mapping in distributed volcanic fields. Using magnetic anomalies, it is possible to model the geometry of shallowly buried volcanic features, such as conduits, sills, and lava flows. This subsurface mapping is important for understanding eruption dynamics and emplacement of lava flows, and it sometimes reveals buried volcanoes no longer visible at the surface. These data are critical to better interpret the numbers, styles, and magnitudes of eruptions in distributed volcanic fields and their associated volcanic hazards. New advances in unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer an attractive middle range of resolution and aerial coverage between ground-based magnetic surveys and aeromagnetic surveys.

Here, we present the results of a UAV fluxgate magnetic survey of the Little Cones, Nevada, scoria cones, which have been the target of previous ground and aeromagnetic surveys. The magnetic anomalies at Little Cones are of interest because the surrounding alluvium conceals lava flows that erupted from Little Cones, making it very difficult to understand the volume and morphology of lava flows from geologic mapping alone. Nonlinear inversion of UAV-collected magnetic data were used to model the thickness and morphology of buried Little Cones’ lava flows with higher precision than achieved previously. The sequence of events and calculated flow characteristics are then interpreted. The total volume of Little Cones, including concealed lava flows, is approximately 0.016 cubic kilometer, and the initial sheet flow erupted in less than 24 hours. The findings presented herein demonstrate that UAV-based magnetic surveys are a reliable method of data collection and an efficient alternative to other survey methods, facilitating development of a three-dimensional perspective of distributed volcanic fields.

Cnidarian–algal partnerships structure bacterial communities during strobilation in Cassiopea xamachana

Mon, 6 Jul 2026 15:26:12

Cnidarian–algal (Symbiodiniaceae) symbioses rely on complex interactions among the cnidarian host, algal symbionts, and associated bacterial communities. In the upside-down jellyfish Cassiopea xamachana, the polyp-to-medusa transition (strobilation) requires the establishment of symbiosis with Symbiodiniaceae algal partners, yet bacterial community dynamics during this developmental process remain unknown. Here, we experimentally induced symbiosis in aposymbiotic polyps using four algal treatments: xenic Symbiodinium microadriaticum (native symbiont), xenic Breviolum minutum, antibiotic-treated B. minutum, and a photosynthetically impaired B. minutum mutant. We combined 16S rRNA gene sequencing with measurements of photosynthetic efficiency, asexual budding, and algal surface N-glycan profiles to characterize holobiont assembly during symbiosis onset and strobilation. Algal treatment structured bacterial communities in both algal cultures and polyp tissues. Our analyses identified a set of amplicon sequence variants that consistently distinguished strobilating polyps from non-strobilating aposymbiotic and mutant polyps, in addition to potential bacterial biomarkers associated with successful metamorphosis. Strobilation was associated with the enrichment of bacterial communities putatively involved in sulfur and nitrogen cycling, whereas non-strobilating aposymbiotic and mutant polyps were characterized by opportunistic bacteria and increased community variability. Together, these results reveal coordinated changes in algal physiology, surface glycan profiles, and bacterial community structure associated with successful strobilation in C. xamachana and support a model in which tripartite host–alga–bacteria interactions influence cnidarian life stage transitions.

Mechanisms of Devils Lake’s responses to recent climatic wetting: Insights from a physically based hydrologic model

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 18:22:47

Study region

Devils Lake Basin of the Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota, USA

Study focus

Understanding the mechanism of Devils Lake’s responses and basin-wide hydrologic change under a wet-climatic regime using a process-based and cold region hydrologic model.

New hydrologic insights

Model results illustrate that three distinct hydroclimatic periods occurred during the study: Water Years 2002–05, 2006–11, and 2012–18. Following a brief time of contraction and growth, the latter two periods provide a complete picture of a wetting to drying cycle during an overall wetting regime. From 2006–2011, Devils Lake (DL) grew primarily due to lateral inflow, driven by strong precipitation and high frozen soil content leading up to the 2011 floods. In addition, during wet years, the snowmelt streamflow from the eastern and central parts of the DL Basin contributes significantly to lake growth compared to the western part. By contrast, from 2012 to 18, DL entered a contraction period, dominated by evaporation losses and anthropogenic flood control operations. Contributors to upstream drying included low precipitation, minimal snowpack accumulation, slightly lower frozen soil ratios, and minimal snowmelt runoff.

Post-fire soil hydrologic response and recovery in northern California (USA)

Mon, 8 Jun 2026 14:17:58

Background

Wildfires abruptly change landscapes by altering soil properties and vegetation cover. These changes are thought to reduce soil infiltration capacity, making landscapes susceptible to runoff and erosion. However, post-fire soil response is complex and likely varies across locations and time.

Aims

Here, we aim to understand regional post-fire soil response and recovery by tracking changes across different northern California (USA) lithology and vegetation types.

Methods

We conducted repeat in situ soil infiltration tests for 3 years post-fire at 31 burned and 10 unburned sites spanning the 2021 Dixie, 2020 LNU Lightning Complex, 2020 Walbridge and 2020 Glass fires.

Key results

Our two main findings are: (1) burned chaparral soils have increased hydraulic conductivity compared with unburned sites, and (2) infiltration rates return to pre-fire conditions within 3 years across most lithologies and vegetations.

Conclusions

Recovery might be generalizable by vegetation and lithology but differ regionally, making it important to identify meaningful hydrologic response units (HRUs). Multi-year studies with paired burned and unburned measurements can constrain the recovery timeline and provide information missed by observations solely of burned soils.

Implications

Understanding where, and for how long, soil remains susceptible to runoff and erosion can help prioritize areas and time periods most in need of mitigation.

Disease, drought, and warming: A triple threat to a declining high-elevation amphibian

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 16:09:25

Managing species in an uncertain future is a reality for natural resource decision makers. Climate change is expected to exacerbate threats such as habitat loss and disease, and cause phenological mismatches, but there is uncertainty in the magnitude of these effects. Amphibians are among the most threatened taxa on earth, and most species in North America are uniquely tied to water availability for breeding, larval development, thermal refugia, and food availability. Changes in water availability and temperature may result in phenological mismatches with one or more of these processes. Thus, quantifying the dependency of amphibians to water on the landscape is critical to understanding how species may respond, as well as understanding the interplay with other threats, such as disease. We developed a dynamic co-occurrence occupancy model to explore the effects of climate change on the breeding occurrence of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM). We derived novel covariates to test hypotheses related to multi-generational impacts of climate on the dynamics of both boreal toad breeding and Bd. We report estimates of current (2001–2019) and future (2055–2069) occupancy under a range of plausible climate scenarios. The probability of boreal toad breeding occurrence at a site in the SRM declined > 40% from 2001 to 2019, and further declines are likely under future scenarios, particularly as active season length increases. To help integrate this information into management, we developed a web-based decision support tool to summarize predicted future hydrological and occupancy conditions.

Global pegmatite-hosted lithium, cesium, and rubidium resources: A dataset for grade and tonnage modeling

Rosera, Joshua; McCaffrey, Dalton; Wintzer, Niki — Fri, 5 Jun 2026 13:59:55

Quantitative mineral resource assessments of potential undiscovered deposits can inform future mineral supply scenarios, but their accuracy is conditional on building robust grade and tonnage models of known deposits. This study presents an up-to-date global compilation and analysis of recently discovered and original, in-situ pegmatite-hosted Li, Cs, and Rb resources prior to historic production. Our analysis yields a median tonnage of 21.2 million tons (Mt) and grade of 1.12% Li₂O, respectively, for global Li pegmatite deposits (n = 73). The grades and tonnages of Li pegmatite resources vary depending on the age of the bedrock host domain, pegmatite crystallization age, and primary ore mineralogy. Lithium pegmatite resources hosted in Archean to transitional Archean-Paleoproterozoic domains have the largest median tonnage (29.8 Mt; n = 38), and those hosted in Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic domains have smaller median tonnages (6.5 Mt; n = 16). Cesium deposits where pollucite is the primary ore mineral have a bimodal grade distribution, with modes of 2.40 and 0.035 wt% Cs₂O for high- and low-grade deposits, respectively, while Rb deposits are more unimodal with a median grade of 0.247 wt% Rb₂O. Pegmatite-hosted Cs and Rb resources have median tonnages of 7.6 and 6.3 Mt, respectively. Covariation between ore mineralogy and the degree of crustal enrichment in pegmatite-hosted deposits is diagnostic of petrogenetic differences, including melt source characteristics, magma evolution, or variable degrees of volatile solubility. The Li pegmatite compilation is suitable for fitting robust numerical models to support quantitative assessments. More well-defined Rb and Cs pegmatite resources are required for quantitative assessments, but these data provide useful information about original in-place resources for framing supply discussions.

Arizona Water Science Center activities at Lees Ferry, Arizona

Cooney, Kathryn Anne — Mon, 8 Jun 2026 17:29:10

Introduction

In 1921, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established a streamgage on the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona, to monitor the river’s flow and level as it enters Grand Canyon. The following year, the seven States encompassing the Colorado River Basin (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) negotiated the 1922 Colorado River Compact to regulate distribution of the river’s waters between them. The compact divided the basin into two regions—the Upper Basin and the Lower Basin—and established the dividing point between them about one mile downstream from Lees Ferry, just below the confluence of the Colorado and Paria Rivers.

The Colorado River at Lees Ferry streamgage (USGS station 09380000) is one of the most important streamgages in the United States because it is used to measure how much water passes from the Upper Basin to the Lower Basin through Glen Canyon Dam. The dam, constructed between 1956 and 1966, generates hydropower and stores water in Lake Powell reservoir, which is used to provide Upper and Lower Basin states with the water allotted to them by the compact. Lower Basin states depend on releases from the dam to receive their allotments. The Lees Ferry streamgage, located less than 16 miles downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, produces publicly available, real-time water data that allows the Colorado River’s streamflow below the dam to be monitored.

Most years, the Colorado River runs dry before reaching its historical terminus at the Gulf of California in Mexico, so measuring and monitoring the river at Lees Ferry is critical for the Lower Basin ecosystems, agricultural resources, and municipal industries that rely on the river’s every drop. Additionally, Grand Canyon river guides and recreationalists depend on water level data from the Lees Ferry streamgage to determine when to run rapids and camp on sandbars. Streamflow and water-quality data collected at Lees Ferry are also important for monitoring the health of the Colorado River’s aquatic life because some species, including fish and macroinvertebrates, require certain water conditions to survive, reproduce, and spawn.

The Arizona Water Science Center is responsible for maintaining and collecting water data from the Lees Ferry streamgage. The Arizona Water Science Center is a branch of the USGS dedicated to providing high quality, impartial water data to resource managers and the public for their use in understanding and managing critical water resources in Arizona and the Southwest.

Rapid earthquake magnitude classification via P-wave strains from borehole strainmeters and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 14:59:07

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers a promising approach for earthquake early warning (EEW) in settings where seismic networks are costly to maintain. By repurposing fiber-optic cables as dense strainmeter arrays, DAS enables real-time earthquake detection wherever those fibers are accessible. However, poor azimuthal coverage and challenges in estimating magnitude from strain measurements remain key hurdles in applying for earthquake monitoring. Here, we develop a machine learning method to distinguish large (M≥5.4) earthquakes from smaller ones within the first 4 seconds of a strain waveform after a P-wave arrival without determining location. Using ensemble decision tree models trained on borehole strainmeter data (3.5≤M≤7.1) and tested on onshore DAS waveforms (including the 2024 M7 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake), we find that low-frequency (0.2–0.5 Hz) continuous wavelet transform coefficients are the strongest predictors of magnitude, in addition to strain amplitude. Both DAS and borehole strainmeters effectively capture long-period strain signals, making these findings valuable for EEW systems. Our method shows high precision compared to the real-time EEW system, ShakeAlert®, supporting the position that DAS is a viable technology for earthquake monitoring and magnitude classification.

Debunking the myth of the quintessential resource manager: Precision in actionable science

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:45:43

“Actionable science” is a widely held standard for identifying the merits of natural resources research. Yet, science is often framed as actionable to a vaguely identified quintessential “manager” without defining either the intended manager or use. Generic descriptions lack precision for identifying end users or their needs, limiting methodological rigor in research design and leading to contextual misalignments of outputs with the need they intended to serve. Further, imprecise terminology limits the ability to evaluate impact, replicate efforts, or foster adoption and implementation of findings. This perspective article presents the heuristic of “who, what, when, where, why, how” to help researchers be more precise when describing their actionable science. Through intentional reflection, researchers can move beyond generic framings of “managers” representing monolithic organizations. “Managers” become individuals, with unique responsibilities, functions, worldviews, and levels of authority, all influencing their use of and need for scientific information and data.

Landslide volume estimation from seismic waveform features using a global catalog of seismogenic events

Collins, Elaine; Allstadt, Kate; Toney, Liam — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 14:33:09

Seismic waves generated by large, rapid landslides encode information about the source and can be analyzed rapidly following an event. Even remote landslides can pose hazards to downstream communities, so rapid detection and characterization using existing seismic monitoring networks could be beneficial. In this study, we expand on past regionally limited work by presenting a globally applicable method for estimating landslide volume from seismic features that could be integrated into future landslide seismic monitoring frameworks. We train the model using multivariable linear regression and five seismic features derived from recordings of 129 landslide events of a range of styles and locations with independently estimated volumes. We present two preferred models, one that combines long‐period (LP) and high‐frequency (HF) features and one for use on smaller landslides without observed long‐period signals. We find that our best‐performing model, applicable to landslides larger than 100,000 m³ with signals containing observable long‐period energy, requires only two features: LP (20–100 s) absolute maximum amplitude and HF (1–5 Hz) rise time (time between the signal start and the maximum envelope amplitude) and has an R² score of 0.79. This model predicted volumes within one order of magnitude for 55 out of 58 events. We find that this combination mitigates the trade‐off between mass and acceleration and other variations of landslide style that limit methods based on amplitude alone.

Strengthening ties between the U.S. Geological Survey and Interstate Fisheries Commissions

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 14:31:20

Fish inhabiting marine coastal and Great Lakes waters of the United States forage, migrate, and reproduce without regard to human-made boundaries. In the mid-20th century, the 32 states along the U.S. coasts and Great Lakes recognized the growing need for coordinated, interjurisdictional fisheries management and formed four interstate or international fisheries commissions through federal legislation. While distinct in their authorities, each commission shares functions to support their regional partners, including coordinating fisheries science and supporting information sharing. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is a federal bureau focused exclusively on science with substantial fisheries research capacity. This empowers USGS to serve as an independent broker of scientific information, which is greatly appreciated by decision-making agencies. The USGS does not maintain broad infrastructure for engaging partners across regions. Therefore, collaboration between the USGS and fisheries commissions ensures that USGS fisheries science helps address the most pressing interjurisdictional management priorities. The USGS has worked with fisheries commissions for decades to a greater or lesser extent in each of the four coastal regions: Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf, and Great Lakes. In 2020, the USGS began efforts to cohesively strengthen these partnerships across the regions. In 2024, leadership from four USGS fisheries science centers and headquarters met with the four fisheries commissions in person for the first time during the American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting. During the gathering, the new Interstate Fisheries Commissions–USGS Partnership developed coordination mechanisms and identified shared science priorities where the USGS capacity best aligns with the science needs of the commissions. Here we describe the history of collaboration between the USGS and fisheries commissions and the emerging interregional partnership.

Black abalone surveys at Naval Base Ventura County, San Nicolas Island, California—2023 annual report

Kenner, Michael; Yee, Julie — Thu, 4 Jun 2026 13:42:45

The U.S. Geological Survey monitors a suite of intertidal black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii) sites at San Nicolas Island, California, in cooperation with the U.S. Navy, which owns the island. The nine rocky intertidal sites were established in 1980 to study the potential effect of translocated sea otters on the intertidal black abalone population at the island. The sites were monitored from 1981 to 1997, typically annually or biennially. Monitoring resumed in 2001 and has been completed annually thereafter. Since 2018, the work has been carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center. The study sites became particularly important, from a management perspective, after a virulent disease decimated black abalone populations throughout southern California beginning in the mid-1980s. The disease, withering syndrome (Candidatus Xenohaliotis californiensis), was first observed on San Nicolas Island in 1992 and over the next few years, withering syndrome reduced the black abalone population on San Nicolas Island by more than 99 percent. In 2009, the black abalone subsequently was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act.

The subject of this report is the 2023 survey of the sites and the status of the measured population in comparison to long-term patterns (based on data collected since 1981) at San Nicolas Island. Between the years 2000 and 2023, the total monitored black abalone population at the island has grown from roughly 200 to more than 2,500 abalone following disease-related decline. Since it was first consistently measured in 2005, the average distance between adjacent black abalone has decreased substantially from approximately 50 centimeters to less than 15 centimeters, indicating that abalone are sufficiently close together at several of the sites to reproduce successfully. The total abalone count in 2023 was 2,570, which was 19.2 percent higher than in 2022 and the highest count since 1993. All nine sites had higher counts in 2023 than in the previous year. Over 25 percent of the black abalone counted in 2023 were classified as recruits, defined as having a shell length of 3 centimeters or less.

Summaries of goals, actions, and information needs by management entity

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 19:17:01

The grasslands in the North Central region are managed by a diverse group of Federal, State, and Tribal agencies; nongovernmental organizations; partnerships; and private landowners. This chapter highlights these various grassland management entities, provides background information on their mission and organizational structure, and describes some of their key grassland management activities, including the way in which each entity engages private landowners in grassland management. Each section also describes emerging challenges and opportunities and high-level information needs. The review and synthesis of grassland management-related documents identified specific information needs, which are listed in an appendix to provide additional detail for anyone looking to collaborate with grassland management entities on shared interests in grassland management or research.

Assessing the prevalence, timing, and rapidity of transitions between hydrological extremes and their relation to meteorological extremes in the conterminous United States

Simeone, Caelan; Hammond, John C. — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 14:01:13

Rapid shifts between droughts and floods, termed hydrological whiplash, challenge water management, yet their timing and drivers remain poorly understood at continental scales. While drought-to-flood (DtF) transitions have received growing attention, flood-to-drought (FtD) transitions — though rarer — pose distinct operational challenges that are less well characterized. These wet-to-dry shifts can disrupt post-flood recovery, strain warm-season water demands, and create compounding risks for infrastructure and water quality. We analyzed daily streamflow records from 3,219 USGS streamgages (1981-2024) to characterize both DtF and FtD transitions across CONUS, with particular emphasis on understanding why these transitions are not symmetric inverses of each other. We test a wide variety of hydrological extreme transition definitions to examine the sensitivity of the number of transitions identified and their rapidity. Additionally, we identify a subset of transitions that may be impactful based on the maximum change in percentile magnitude during a transition. DtF transitions are faster than FtD transitions, and short-term (<= 30-days) transitions in both directions are concentrated in the Northeast, Northwest, and Rocky Mountains regions. Short-term DtF transitions are additionally concentrated in southern California and along the line from North Dakota down to Texas where precipitation approximately equals potential evapotranspiration. We find direction-specific controls: snow-dominated, urban, regulated, and minimally disturbed basins show the most frequent impactful DtF transitions, while regulated basins are most prone to impactful FtD transitions. Rapid and impactful transitions make up a substantially larger fraction of DtF transitions than FtD transitions across nearly all basin types. A key finding is that hydrological and meteorological whiplash rarely coincide: only 19-24% of hydrological extreme transitions co-occur with hydroclimate whiplash, revealing that basin storage, regulation, and routing processes create a fundamental decoupling between climate forcing and streamflow response. Our findings highlight the need to better understand quick hydrological transitions under increasing hydroclimatic volatility, particularly the understudied FtD direction, and the mechanisms by which anthropogenic modifications reshape the hydrological whiplash risk.

Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities

Murphy, Jennifer; Gorney, Rebecca; Lucas, Lisa; Zwart, Jacob; Graham, Jennifer — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:57:16

This systematic literature review critically examines 162 articles on harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in riverine systems to uncover persistent gaps, redefine critical challenges, and propose trackable opportunities to advance future modeling efforts. Articles largely focused on site-specific applications (93%) across more than 80 rivers worldwide. Most modeled systems were large, eutrophic rivers with flow modifications or obstructions. Geographic clustering of modeled systems was pronounced, with South Korea accounting for 26% of articles, followed by Europe (25%), United States (21%), and China (12%). Modeling approaches were led by process-based models (59%), though use of data-driven models (37%) increased over time, reflecting advances in computing and monitoring technology. Modeling endpoints varied widely across the articles with many focused on gross measures of algal abundance and fewer representing more refined endpoints like algal toxins or community composition. Furthermore, inconsistent units and taxonomic resolution hindered comparability between models. Datasets used for model development and calibration typically spanned 5 years, with weekly to monthly sampling at 1–10 sites, though durations and site counts were positively skewed. Quantitative metrics of model skill were often absent and included a diverse set of metrics when reported. Across all models, nutrients, light availability, streamflow, algal physiological processes, and water temperature emerged as key predictors, though algal processes were rarely incorporated in data-driven models. Scenario analyses primarily were conducted with process-based models and addressed flow management, whereas forecasting applications were less common and typically used data-driven models. After almost 50 years of riverine HAB modeling, persistent challenges include underrepresentation of benthic habitats, neglect of side-channel and backwater influences, insufficient documentation of river features, and weak linkages between modeled endpoints and potential harms. Addressing these gaps through reporting of contextual information, models from other aquatic settings, benchmark datasets, and community-driven tools could advance riverine HAB modeling towards increased transferability and ultimately operational forecasts.

Long-term monitoring identifies increase in Henslow’s Sparrow (Centronyx henslowii) abundance following fire management in a North Carolina grassland

Nastase, Emily; Hostetter, Nathan; Carpenter, John; Collazo, Jamie — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 19:30:45

Understanding population responses to environmental change is critical for assessing vulnerability, resilience, and habitat management needs. We assessed Henslow’s Sparrow (Centronyx henslowii) abundance and breeding productivity in an isolated North Carolina grassland (1149 ha) that transitioned from unmanaged to fire-managed during 2011–2024. Fire management was initiated in 2016, where approximately 1/3 of the grassland is burned annually in late summer on a rotating basis, resulting in a full burn cycle of roughly three years. We used hierarchical distance sampling models to estimate the change in Henslow’s Sparrow abundance before and after fire management from point count data (45–50 locations surveyed annually). Estimated average abundances (i.e., expected number of singing male sparrows per site) significantly increased from 1.387 individuals per survey location pre-management (95% credible interval [CI]: 0.822–2.267) to 3.124 post-management (CI: 2.235–4.385), resulting in annual population sizes ranging from 56 singing male sparrows in 2012 (CI: 36–85), to 411 in 2022 (CI: 342–498). From 2022 to 2023, average brood size was 3.148 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.637–3.659) and survival probability for a 24-day nesting cycle was 0.693 (CI: 0.369–0.897). Apparent nesting success was 70–89%, much higher than reported in previous studies (19–62%). Increased abundance post-management indicates that Henslow’s Sparrows are responding positively to the use of prescribed fire, while the estimated rates of breeding productivity indicate the species likely has the capacity to sustain the local population. This study provides baseline information for managers to monitor population status, while laying the foundation to identify regulatory mechanisms and gauge the effectiveness of the current fire management strategy in maintaining an isolated population of Henslow’s Sparrows.

Predictions of anthropogenic background PFAS concentrations in soil and relation to bedrock lithology and groundwater quality

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 17:38:12

Detectable concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been observed in soils in remote areas and presumably originate from atmospheric deposition. These anthropogenic background concentrations may enable some PFAS to leach to groundwater at levels that exceed regulatory criteria for drinking water. However, anthropogenic background soil concentrations and their connection to groundwater are not well characterized. We developed a boosted regression tree model to predict perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) concentrations in shallow soils across northern New England. Low soil pH was the most important predictor of elevated anthropogenic PFOS and PFOA concentrations in background soils, rather than potential PFAS sources, land use, or population density. Total organic carbon (TOC) was also an important predictor for PFOS soil concentrations. Model predictions indicate that 73% of the shallow soils within Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire exceed New Hampshire’s Soil Remediation Standard for PFOS (0.5 ng/g) and 41% exceed the PFOA standard (0.4 ng/g). Analysis of soil model results and groundwater data suggests that areas with high soil pH are associated with higher groundwater detection frequencies, illustrating how areas with less retention in soil are, conversely, also areas with potentially greater groundwater vulnerability. Further analysis indicates that groundwater may be more vulnerable in calcareous lithologies.

Trends in subdaily to daily rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022

Fri, 5 Jun 2026 14:20:31

Changing rainfall patterns and intensifying rainfall extremes affect urban infrastructure and can increase flash-flood risk. Understanding how climate change has altered rainfall can support state and local agencies as they adapt and build resiliency. In this study, rainfall data from 23 weather stations in Florida were used to examine temporal and spatial trends over the period 1990–2022. Subdaily to daily rainfall events of durations 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h were examined. A variety of statistical methods were applied to examine annual and seasonal trends, including quantile regression, extreme value analysis, run theory using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen–Theil slope, and Poisson and negative binomial tests, and threshold exceedance rates using generalized additive models. Using subdaily rainfall data posed challenges, including equipment failures, limited documentation of the quality assurance and control process, and potential measurement interferences. Results indicated that over 1990–2022, there was a decrease in hourly rainfall extremes but an increase at moderate quantiles. Overall, the number of rainfall events increased, particularly at shorter durations, but the mean total rainfall per event decreased. Additionally, the annual number of daily rainfall extremes showed more decreases than increases.

Paleogene landscape and basin evolution in the Missouri River Headwater region of the Basin and Range Province in southwestern Montana: Implications for Paleogene extensional tectonic models and magmatism

Schwartz, Robert; Schwartz, Theresa; Elliott, Colleen — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 14:07:12

No abstract available.

Mangrove microbiomes as drivers of ecosystem recovery and restoration success

Ohimain, Elijah; Turner, Robert; Middleton, Beth — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:21:26

The microbes found in the rhizosphere, roots, leaves and stem surfaces and within the internal tissues of mangrove vegetation and their environment constitute the microbiome of the ecosystem. The organisms in the microbiome include bacteria, protozoa, fungi, algae, amoebas, and slime molds, which assist in maintaining and restoring mangrove ecosystems. This review explores the role of microbiomes in the maintenance of healthy mangrove ecosystems and in the successful restoration of degraded mangrove ecosystems. Microbes have important roles in several geomicrobiological cycles shaping mangrove ecosystems, including transforming nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, sulfur and iron in biogeochemical cycles. Mangrove microbiomes contribute to the adaptation of vegetation to the harsh abiotic conditions in coastal areas, enhance nutrient uptake, produce plant-growth-promoting substances, and degrade the mangrove litter and the pollutants that can hinder restoration. Soil microbes function as biofertilizers, biopesticides, and bioremediation agents. The microbial diversity, composition, and functional capacity are important in the restoration of mangroves through their influence on voluntary recruitment following hydrologic restoration, on the establishment success of planted seeds and propagules, and on the survival of transplanted saplings and nursery-raised seedlings. The knowledge of the beneficial attributes of the microbiome can enhance the overall success of mangrove restoration. Identifying future needs, such as microbial inoculant validation, field-scale trials, and integration with hydrological restoration, are essential.

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: A U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 13:56:20

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

Localization of spatiotemporally heterogeneous subsurface flows using autoencoder-based deep learning framework for time-lapse self-potential tomography

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 14:11:59

Self-potential (SP) monitoring has emerged as a valuable method for characterizing subsurface hydrogeological features and processes due to its sensitivity to fluid-induced electrokinetic effects. Despite advancements in SP inversion, challenges remain in imaging groundwater dynamics from SP activities due to complex hydrological settings and transient noise. In this study, a deep learning autoencoder (AE)-based framework is proposed for the spatiotemporal localization of subsurface fluid movement from time-lapse SP tomography. Temporal segments of time-lapse numerical inversions were first derived from long-term SP monitoring conducted from a floodplain site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, known for active hyporheic exchange. Subsequently, AE models based on vision transformer (ViT), convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM), convolutional neural network, and temporal convolutional network were individually trained and compared on the SP tomography segments for reconstruction performance. Finally, the reconstruction error over time serves as an anomaly score to identify moments of active SP variation, whereas spatial distributions of errors within these moments are analyzed to image and localize regions associated with anomalous subsurface fluid movement. The results demonstrate that ConvLSTM- and ViT-AE are most capable for the localization task with contrasting error distributions and consistent delineation of anomalies. Applying the method to both SP arrays parallel and perpendicular to the stream produced consistent anomaly zones near a fault or karst feature, validating the robustness and generalization of the approach. These results demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a scalable and interpretable tool for spatiotemporal analysis of subsurface flow dynamics in complex hydrogeological systems.

Improving offshore 3D splay fault geometries and slip histories using seismic data reprocessing and structural modeling

Ledeczi, Anna; Miller, Nathaniel; Tobin, Harold; Condit, Cailey — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:57:08

The goal of this project as written in the CRESCENT seed grant proposal was as follows: 1) reprocess selected profiles along strike from 45° to 48°N from the CASIE21 crustal-scale seismic data to obtain higher-resolution and higher-quality imaging of the uppermost 1-2 km of the accretionary wedge; 2) convert high-resolution USGS sparker seismic data from the time to depth domain to constrain near-surface fault geometries; 3) use kinematic modeling in the MOVE software to derive individual fault slip rates and per-event-displacements; and 4) work with the CFM group to create updated 3D models of identified faults based on the new data sources.

At this stage, we have begun the reprocessing of the CASIE21 seismic reflection data (Carbotte et al., 2023). The time-migration reprocessing of the CASIE21 dataset has improved imaging of the near-surface structure by incorporating usable frequencies up to ~220 Hz, in contrast to the ~50 Hz maximum usable content in the currently available pre-stack depth migrated (PSDM) profiles (Fig. 1C). An example of the image quality gained through reprocessing is shown in Fig. 1, where the dominant wavelength of each reflector is reduced to ~10 m (Fig. 1B) from ~20 m in the existing PSDM product (Fig. 1A). The reprocessing work is still currently in progress. While the imaging in the shallow section has been much improved, reprocessing below the first multiple is still needed to create a seamless image from the plate boundary to the surface.

Co-occurrence of pesticides and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) across Zostera marina (common eelgrass) communities

Mon, 1 Jun 2026 13:56:29

Anthropogenic pressures are driving changes in eelgrass communities, which are altering baseline conditions in estuarine environments. Field detections have validated the transport of land-sourced pollutants to aquatic systems; however, studies rarely sample concurrently for pesticides, and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) across environmental compartments. Moreover, studies on contaminant uptake by eelgrass and associated species are even more limited. In collaboration with the Confederated Tribes of the Coos, Lower Umpqua and Siuslaw Indians (CTCLUSI), this study collected samples of water, eelgrass, clams, and sediment at sites of Tribal significance in Southern Oregon to test for organic contaminants (i.e., herbicides and pharmaceuticals). Paired sampling was conducted for analysis by the CTCLUSI in tandem with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in order for the Tribe to develop analytical standards for future sampling efforts. Ten pesticides and eight pharmaceuticals were detected across the four sites, with the highest number of overall detections (27) at the Florence Marina site. The insecticide bifenthrin was most frequently detected across all media (0.012–1.565 μg/g organic carbon in sediment, 2.7–30 ng/g in organismal tissue) and the anti-diabetic agent metformin was the most detected PPCP in clam tissues (1.33–3.78 ng/g). Pesticides and PPCPs were observed to co-occur in eelgrass habitats, with numerous pesticide detections across media types. These findings demonstrate numerous routes of exposure for estuarine organisms which could be addressed with pharmaceutical disposal strategies or pesticide use restrictions near these habitats.

Range-wide relative abundance of the Appalachian grizzled skipper (Pyrgus centaureae wyandot) in the Eastern United States

Fri, 29 May 2026 13:09:53

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has designated the Pyrgus centaureae wyandot (Appalachian Grizzled Skipper [AGS]) to be at-risk, based on its declining populations and the lack of information on its status. The objective of this study was to complete range-wide surveys to locate extant AGS colonies and to quantify the number of AGS observed at each location. From 2021–24, 284 surveys were done in 25 unique (that is, distinct) counties in 8 States in the Eastern United States — Maryland, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. We found AGS in only two counties: Alleghany County, Virginia, and Greenbrier County, West Virginia. AGS were observed 180 times in these two counties. Our results can inform U.S. Fish and Wildlife decisions about where and how future AGS conservation efforts can be implemented.

Effects of repeat prescribed burning in dry coniferous forests in national parks of California

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 14:08:18

Background

Prescribed fire is a common approach to reduce fuels and mitigate fire hazards. The accumulation of live and dead fuels following initial treatment means that repeated application of prescribed fire could be used to maintain this benefit. However, the effect of repeated prescribed fires is not well documented in many dry coniferous forests in the western United States. Here, we present observations of changes in live trees and surface fuels following two prescribed fires in dry coniferous forests in national parks of California.

Results

Changes in forest structure and accumulation of surface fuels were similar over time following initial-entry and second-entry fires. An exception was that repeated fires were associated with substantial reductions in stem density. There were smaller changes in live tree basal area and stem biomass.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that following initial-entry fires, subsequent burning maintained reductions in surface fuel loads without major inadvertent losses of live tree basal area and stem biomass, implying the survival of large trees.

Future water constraints on United States lithium mining under climate change

Trost, Jenna; Nassar, Nedal; Dunn, Jennifer — Fri, 5 Jun 2026 13:48:19

Lithium is necessary for low-carbon technologies that combat climate change, but lithium extraction is water-intensive. Changes in temperature and precipitation arising from climate change are altering water distribution, which could further strain supplies for new mines and industry, farms, and households. Here we explored how climate change, water use, and mining siting could impact lithium mining in the United States. We analyzed whether there would be sufficient water available to support the single existing and 22 proposed U.S. lithium mines at mid-century under four socioeconomic-climate scenarios and five climate models. Though dependent on socioeconomic-climate scenario, climate model, and lithium deposit type, available water supply in most subbasins would likely be unable to support new mines’ water demands, or even non-mining water demands from other sectors. Water scarcity could hinder the ability of the United States to produce enough lithium to meet domestic demand thereby necessitating higher imports.

Assessing environmental influences on gene flow for a migratory ungulate in a fire-prone landscape

Flesch, Elizabeth; Graves, Tabitha A.; Biel, Mark — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 14:40:01

Context

Migratory species traverse long distances across complex landscape mosaics. Shifts in environmental attributes across space and time could affect movement paths and genetic connectivity of migratory species.

Objectives

We identified boundaries to genetic connectivity based on population structure and evaluated environmental influences on gene flow in a migratory ungulate. We projected how genetic connectivity might be affected by actual wildfire events.

Methods

We collected over 168,400 GPS locations for 97 bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) and estimated kinship with 5,140 single nucleotide polymorphisms for 95 individuals. We identified subpopulations and employed machine-learning optimization to evaluate how environmental attributes affect gene flow between them. We projected future genetic connectivity based on recent landscape changes.

Results

We observed that water bodies and > 70% canopy cover may limit effective dispersal, suggesting that shifts in these landscape attributes, influenced by climate and vegetation management, may affect future gene flow. We also predicted recent wildfire events will change gene flow between three subpopulations, predicting more flow where fire reduced canopy cover at a pinchpoint near a linear lake and less flow where fire was internal to the subpopulation.

Conclusions

Modifications in canopy cover could be applied to facilitate or impede connectivity and gene flow, depending on management goals. Large, semi-linear lakes could form movement barriers in other bighorn populations. Recent wildfires will likely increase gene flow between semi-isolated subpopulations, with implications for disease management. As wildfire and tree encroachment and densification increase, gene flow between other spatially structured populations in similar landscapes may shift.

Geochemical, mineralogical, and isotopic evidence for multi-stage genesis of the Hicks Dome REE + Y-HFSE-fluorite deposit, Illinois, USA

Thu, 28 May 2026 14:13:31

Hicks Dome hosts breccias enriched in rare earth elements (REE), Y, Th, F, Ba, Ti, Nb, and Be, alongside spatially associated lamprophyre dikes (ca. 271 Ma). Hicks Dome is located within the Illinois–Kentucky Fluorspar District, which hosts fluorite, Pb–Zn, and barite resources. This study investigates the genetic relationships between Hicks Dome mineralization in breccias, alkaline magmatism, and Illinois–Kentucky Fluorspar District mineralization. Lamprophyre dikes are light REE–enriched with chondrite-normalized abundances decreasing from La to Lu. The Host Breccia exhibits middle and heavy REE–enriched patterns that mirror those of the principal REE–Th host minerals, including fluorapatite, xenotime, and thorite. Textural evidence suggests recrystallization of phosphates, sulfates, and Ti–Nb oxides in the Host Breccia. U–Pb geochronology constrains multiple mineralizing events, with ages of 277 ± 18 Ma from low-Th apatite interpreted as main-stage mineralization, and 121.6 ± 9.7 Ma from high-Th apatite indicating later overprinting. O–H–C stable isotope data provide evidence for multiple stages of fluid-rock interaction and fluid mixing: (1) early magmatic fluids dissolved limestone country rock, (2) mixing between magmatic fluids and basinal brines led to main-stage mineralization in the Host Breccia, and (3) late-stage mineralization occurred following mixing of meteoric water and basinal brine. These results indicate that heavy REEs, high field strength elements, and fluorine precipitated proximal to its alkaline magmatic source because of fluid–rock interactions and fluid mixing. Subsequent fluid mixing drove late-stage recrystallization and additional fluorite formation, a process that may be similar to mineralization in the Illinois-Kentucky Fluorspar District.

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2025

Fri, 29 May 2026 13:52:57

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Bloater (Coregonus hoyi), Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax), Deepwater Sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii), Slimy Sculpin (Cottus cognatus), Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus), Ninespine Stickleback (Pungitius pungitius)]. The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004 (except 2020). The 2025 AC survey consisted of 26 transects [470 km total (292 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 5 to 259 m and 44 midwater trawl tows at 1.4 to 82.4 m fishing depth; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks.

For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 9.3 kg/ha, continuing a recent trend of index values above the long-term average of 5.4 kg/ha. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 3.4 kg/ha, close to values observed since 2014 and well below historic numbers and those observed earlier in the 2000s. Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2025), the total biomass density index had trended downward in the fall BT through the mid-2010s and appears to have stabilized at low values, while the AC survey biomass density index has remained relatively stable over the time series.

Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 4.3 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.45 kg/ha in the fall BT. Since 2014, annual survey results suggest that the catchability of YAO Alewife for the fall BT is substantially lower than the AC survey. The 2025 AC survey YAO Alewife biomass density estimate was 57% higher than the average from 2004-2024. The Alewife population of Lake Michigan appears to be composed mostly of young fish and the proportion of age-4 and older Alewife was ~5% in both surveys. Age-0 Alewife numeric density from the AC survey was 259 fish/ha in 2025, lower than the long-term mean (487 fish/ha). Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 3.5 kg/ha in the AC survey and 1.9 kg/ha in the fall BT. The density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was 540 fish/ha in the AC survey, the second highest value in the time series. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was only 6.1 fish/ha. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.69 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.04 kg/ha in the fall BT survey. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 541 fish/ha in the AC survey, the highest value in the time series, and 41 fish/ha in the fall BT. All four prey fish species indexed only by the fall BT had below-average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was 0.21 kg/ha, which makes 15 of the past 16 years with biomass <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated to be 0.03 kg/ha, an order of magnitude lower than the long-term average from the fall BT. Round Goby biomass density was 0.44 kg/ha and Ninespine Stickleback density was 0.20 kg/ha, the highest value since 2007.

Moment magnitude for small earthquakes in the Delaware basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico, USA

Gable, Sydney; Huang, Yihe; Shelly, David; Rubinstein, Justin — Tue, 2 Jun 2026 14:53:34

The Delaware Basin region of west Texas and southeast New Mexico has become one of the most prolific regions of seismic activity in the continental United States due to widespread hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal injection. In response to the increased number of earthquakes in this region, rapid and accurate characterization of earthquake sources is necessary to understand the evolution of seismic activity and level of seismic hazard associated with these earthquakes. This study re-evaluates earthquake magnitudes, estimating moment magnitude (MW) for small earthquakes in the Delaware Basin using 1) moment-rate spectra derived from S-wave coda envelopes, and 2) a relative magnitude method that relies exclusively on the ratio of waveform amplitudes between highly correlated waveform pairs. The coda-envelope method produces accurate M_W estimates for small earthquakes (M 1.5 – 3) that are consistent with independent, waveform modeled moment magnitudes for events with M_W > 3. Using the relative amplitudes method to extend these M_Wmagnitudes to many other events, we successfully provide relative moment magnitude (M_W,rel) values for 81% of the Texas Seismological Network catalog in the Delaware Basin region, and 45% of the USGS Induced Seismicity Project’s catalog of events in southeast New Mexico. The adoption and integration of the calibrated M_W,rel method with current magnitude estimation methods offers valuable insights into the relationships between local and moment magnitude and will contribute to improved characterization of widespread induced seismicity.

Demographic responses to experimental manipulation of an enclosed population of invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis)

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 15:56:16

Understanding how invasive species populations respond to perturbations can give insight into effective management. However, opportunities to test theoretical population responses are rare, as experimental perturbations often run counter to management goals (e.g., suppression). On the island of Guam, a 5-ha outdoor enclosure (with no immigration or emigration) constructed in 2003 serves as a unique population-scale study area for invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis). Capture-mark-recapture studies (CMR) and several experiments have taken place since 2004. Here, we analyze a subset of the CMR data collected between 2008 and 2012, a time period encompassing two experimental perturbations: (1) supplemental feeding to determine if the population is food limited and (2) targeted removal of adult and large-subadult cohorts to quantify the timing and magnitude of the population's demographic response to a simulated control effort. We used the CMR data to fit a Pradel model in a Bayesian framework to compare the population growth rate, survival probability, and recruitment rate prior to, during, and post perturbations. We found that increasing food resources increased population growth and recruitment rates, but that survival remained relatively constant. The removal perturbation resulted in a decrease in population growth rate and survival immediately after the removal, but population growth rate and recruitment began increasing 1 year after the removal perturbation. Our results suggest that brown treesnakes in the enclosed population are prey limited, likely constraining population growth, and that the suppression of population growth after removal of adults and large sub-adults is short-lived (i.e., less than a year).

Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021

Tue, 26 May 2026 18:25:26

Longitudinal profiles of water surface and riverbed elevations capture key geomorphic characteristics that can be affected by water infrastructure and natural processes. Continuous water surface profiles of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a river influenced by two of the largest dams in the United States, have been measured infrequently. The water surface profile was first measured in 1923, 13 years before the completion of Hoover Dam, which impounded water into western Grand Canyon, and 40 years before the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, which affected streamflow and sediment supply for all of Grand Canyon. The water surface profile was next measured in 2000, 37 years after the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, although this profile did not include the segment affected by Hoover Dam. A continuous profile of riverbed elevations has never been published. Here, we present the first complete, coupled water surface and riverbed elevation profiles, collected in 2021 during a period of steady releases from Glen Canyon Dam. The profiles were constructed from positions and elevations measured by boat-based global navigation satellite systems and from bathymetry collected by multibeam sonar. Data collected by boat were supplemented by data from a photogrammetry-derived digital surface model that was created from concurrently collected aerial images. Independent measurements made by conventional total stations referenced to a common geodetic control network were used to evaluate accuracy of all measurements. The final water surface and riverbed elevation profiles improved the accuracy and precision reported for previous profiles. In this study, the mean absolute vertical accuracy of water surface elevations was 0.07 meter for 85 percent of river miles and 0.19 meter for 11 percent of river miles. For the remaining 4 percent of river miles, water surface elevations were interpolated between measured values. The profiles reported herein can be used for current assessment of Colorado River geomorphic conditions, quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.

From start to stop: Simple methods for mapping susceptibility to landslide runout and debris-flow inundation

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 14:17:21

Landslide runout and debris-flow inundation can disrupt areas well beyond their initial sources, causing widespread damage and extensive fatalities. Understanding where they start and how far they might travel is essential in many locations worldwide. However, most landslide susceptibility maps focus on initiation areas and fail to incorporate runout areas. Furthermore, hazards vary greatly with the degree of landslide mobility, and debris flows can grow as they travel beyond their initial source. Here, we use the USGS Grfin Tools software suite to map susceptible areas from start to stop in the Federated States of Micronesia where landslide and debris-flows runout onto gentle ground is a deadly threat. The DEM-based models in Grfin Tools use simple, empirical, and well-documented approaches that require minimal parameters and, thus, can be used in areas that lack detailed physical properties. We illustrate methods to estimate the required parameters using direct landslide observations, and we suggest alternate methods if direct observations are absent. Our simple parameter estimations in the Federated States of Micronesia successfully predict areas that match past landslide runout and debris-flow inundation, as well as zones with no inundation. In addition to creating preliminary regional assessments, Grfin Tools can be used for comparing multiple scenarios and/or identifying areas for further investigations.

Streamflow and surface-water presence data availability across the conterminous United States: A review for headwater systems

Fri, 5 Jun 2026 13:55:33

Water is essential for life on Earth, supporting ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. Hydrology relies on observational data, and this paper discusses regional and national datasets for the conterminous United States (CONUS) publicly available as of 2023, focusing on headwaters, defined as first- and second-order streams at 1:24000 scale. It identifies 72 primary and secondary datasets and 11 repositories and argues how better integration and accessibility of hydrological data can improve research. The paper distinguishes between datasets where streamflow was the primary data collection objective and those where it was secondary. This distinction highlights opportunities to consider data from efforts peripheral to hydrology but is still useful for understanding hydrologic conditions. The analysis reveals that out of about 118 000 active and inactive stream observation sites, about 6.6% and 25% are located on first- and second-order streams, respectively. This indicates a substantial data gap for headwater systems, which account for over 77% of stream length in CONUS. Federal agencies manage 72% of hydrologic monitoring sites across all stream orders, but only 34% of these are in headwater systems. Academic institutions operate about 2% of sites, with almost half (48%) in headwater systems, focusing on ecosystem research. State agencies also operate about 2% of sites, primarily on larger systems, with 19% on headwaters. Additionally, 23% of sites are managed by multiple agencies. Spatial patterns further reveal pronounced disparities among physiographic regions. Eastern and coastal provinces show relatively dense monitoring, while central and western regions show sparse coverage. These gaps reflect historical priorities, logistical constraints, funding limitations, and the high cost of continuous instrumentation. To address biases in monitoring networks, data collection could be enhanced with low-cost monitoring, community science, and remote sensing technologies. This study also notes the benefits of long-term monitoring and prioritizing retention of streamgages with longer records.

An overview of the NASA Adaptation and Response in Drylands field experiment scoping study

Mon, 22 Jun 2026 15:17:12

Drylands cover 41% of Earth’s land surface, support 36% of the global population, and contribute 60% of global food production. Despite these ecosystems’ importance and high vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves, drylands remain some of the most understudied systems on Earth. Monitoring drylands is challenging due to their complex ecosystem structure of visible soil mixed with diverse plant species that respond rapidly to weather and climate. In 2023 and 2024, a NASA scoping study was conducted for a proposed dryland terrestrial ecology field campaign called Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID). Thereafter, the NASA ARID scoping team submitted their campaign proposal to NASA Headquarters, providing a study design for how field, aircraft, and satellite measurements, as well as modeling, would address the most critical fundamental and applied science questions in drylands. The extensive study plan was created by and for the drylands research community – including remote sensors, modelers, experimentalists, and ecologists from across the world – and the overall approach can be further utilized and changed for different uses and data information needs. Here, we summarize the ARID research road map, including its main objectives, field campaign strategy, data end-user support strategy, and U.S. and global community engagement.

Growth and erosion of volcanic islands since 1963 analyzed by multi-sensor satellite data and historical records

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 16:02:01

Most volcanic activity is taking place in the oceans. Depending on water depth, eruption recurrence times and volumes, a new island can form. The power of erosional forces, the type of erupted material and the efficiency of secondary processes determine the island’s lifetime. Since the famous eruption of Surtsey (Iceland) in 1963, at least another 23 volcanic islands have appeared. Some islands remained intact for years or decades, whereas others disappeared within just weeks or months. In this study, we analyzed satellite data to determine growth and erosion rates of the volcanic edifices related to these 24 islands. We combined multi-sensor (optical, thermal, radar) satellite data time series with information from literature and the Global Volcanism Program database. We developed a comprehensive dataset, including 19 parameters, on the islands’ lifetime, shape, area, volume, eruption style and duration, environmental conditions, development of sedimentary deposits, and the geomorphic evolution of the island over time. Our dataset is available in a database format. This database allows us to test eight hypotheses about factors influencing the islands’ lifetime. Our results show that instead of one single critical factor, a combination of different factors influences the life history of volcanic islands. For instance, we show that larger islands do not necessarily live longer. The mechanical properties of the eruption products affect the island’s structural integrity. Irrespective of the material, a minimum initial area of around 50,000 m² seems to be a reasonable threshold to give the island a chance to exist longer.

PFAS mixture composition and internal exposure profiles shape biological responses under field-realistic exposure

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 20:37:20

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) occur as complex mixtures, yet mixture-dependent biological effects under environmentally realistic exposure conditions remain poorly understood. We conducted multiyear (2018, 2019, 2021) continuous-flow, field-based exposures of male fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) using a low-PFAS reference well (REF; sum of measured PFAS (∑PFAS) 0.1–0.2 μg L^–1) and PFAS-contaminated groundwater from a fire-training area (FTA) at Joint Base Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Dilution treatments enabled separation of concentration and mixture effects. Groundwater from well FTA1 was perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) dominated (∑PFAS 10–31 μg L^–1), whereas groundwater from well FTA2 had higher concentrations and was enriched in perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and diverse precursors (∑PFAS ∼ 80 μg L^–1). Despite comparable plasma ∑PFAS and PFOS in FTA1–100% and FTA2–50% on day-7, cumulative mortality reached approximately 35% in FTA2–50% and 17% in FTA2–100%, and secondary sex trait expression was reduced by approximately 65–80% relative to REF, whereas sperm motility effects were mixture- and time-dependent. Plasma PFAS profiles were dominated by perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS), PFOS, and sulfonamide precursors. Liver transcriptomics from REF-acclimated fish revealed robust disruption of metabolic, mitochondrial, and endocrine pathways that link PFAS mixture chemistry and internal exposure profiles to organismal outcomes, and testis transcriptomics provided complementary insight into reproductive impairment. These results indicate that PFAS mixture composition and internal exposure profiles, including precursor-associated differences, are important determinants of ecotoxicological outcomes under field-realistic conditions.

Environmental and demographic mechanisms underlying population dynamics provide relative stability in an island songbird

Mon, 6 Jul 2026 14:40:55

Understanding demographic and ecological mechanisms underlying population dynamics is a key goal in population ecology and can inform effective conservation and management. Species may be well adapted to persist under normal ranges of environmental conditions, but increasingly novel conditions due to climate change may strain their demographic buffering mechanisms. Small isolated populations on islands are expected to be especially vulnerable to declines caused by novel environmental conditions, but the ecological drivers of population dynamics on islands are often unknown. We used an integrated population model to (1) examine ecological drivers of population growth and (2) assess global population trends of the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis) from 2009 to 2019. Our results suggest that population size increased slightly over this interval despite declines during severe drought. We also found evidence that density dependence, precipitation, and food availability affected fecundity and the survival of nonbreeding individuals. Breeder survival was relatively stable and had a weak effect on population growth as expected for long-lived species. Overall, our results provide an optimistic snapshot for this species by demonstrating resilience to contemporary drought but also emphasize the species' potential vulnerability due to its small population size.

Effects of warming on growth and leaf colonization by litter mat-forming fungi in a wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico

Wed, 3 Jun 2026 15:05:55

Wet tropical forests are experiencing rising temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, such as cyclones, which can increase rates of soil erosion and surface runoff. Fungal litter mats, formed by agaric decomposer fungi, play a crucial role in stabilizing slopes, preventing erosion, and aiding nutrient cycling; however, little is known about how warming affects litter mat growth and function. We investigated two litter mat-forming fungi, Gymnopus johnstonii and Marasmius aff. crinis-equi, in warmed (+4°C above ambient) and control plots in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Growth and time-to-leaf colonization were monitored over 6 weeks in spring (both species) and summer (G. johnstonii only). We hypothesized that warming would inhibit fungal mat growth and slow leaf colonization, particularly for G. johnstonii since it is drought sensitive. As expected, warming significantly reduced relative growth rates (RGR) in spring, though M. aff. crinis-equi showed slightly higher RGR than G. johnstonii. Leaf colonization was also delayed by 22% in warmed plots, with M. aff. crinis-equi colonizing leaves 4.3 times faster than G. johnstonii. There were significant seasonal differences in response to warming for G. johnstonii, with warming increasing RGR during the consistently wetter summer sampling period. Overall, warming led to significant inhibition of leaf colonization when conditions were dry, whereas there was a trend toward increased colonization in warm and wet conditions. Our findings suggest that warming, combined with drier conditions, is likely to suppress drought-sensitive fungal mat growth, reducing their ability to prevent nutrient and soil loss via erosion.

Lowland tropical forests remain a methane sink under warming and long-term hurricane disturbance recovery

Wed, 3 Jun 2026 14:22:19

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas, and tropical forests account for roughly one–third of global atmospheric CH₄ uptake by soils. Projected warming and more frequent hurricanes in these ecosystems may alter soil CH₄ sink strength, as warmer and wetter soils enhance methanogenesis activity. We measured soil CH₄ and CO₂ efflux during the calendar summer months of 2023 and 2024 alongside continuous records of soil moisture, soil and air temperature, and precipitation in an in–situ warming experiment (TRACE) located in a lowland tropical forest in Puerto Rico, six to seven years after Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017). The realized warming (∼1.95°C) enhanced soil respiration only in summer 2023 (p < 0.05), but net soil CH₄ uptake was invariant in both campaigns (p > 0.05). Instead, sampling day and between–plot variability explained soil CH₄ dynamics much more than treatment contrasts. Importantly, CH₄ uptake was consistently coupled to CO₂ efflux, suggesting tight linkages between methanotrophic and heterotrophic activities. Between treatments, CH₄ and CO₂ responses to soil temperature variation were less sensitive in warmed plots, which may suggest weak metabolic upregulation under elevated temperatures. Together, these findings indicate that lowland tropical soils remain CH₄ sink even under warming and years after hurricane disturbance, with CH₄ dynamics driven more by spatial and temporal variability than experimental warming. Long–term, high–resolution monitoring integrating soil biogeochemistry and microbial processes will be critical to determine whether the observed net CH₄ uptake signal represents a sustainable or transient response under continued warming and disturbance.

Putting weight to work: A review and examples of weight-based indicators in freshwater fish stock assessment

Miranda, Leandro; Angulo-Valencia, Mirtha; Fraser, Camren — Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:17:19

Despite being a direct measure of biomass and central to fisheries management, weight-based metrics remain underutilized in freshwater fish stock assessment. Here, we present a concise review of the application of weight in evaluating freshwater fish populations. We examine the historical use of weighing, assess how weight is applied across subdisciplines of freshwater fish science, contrast weight- and length-based approaches, and identify biases in their application. We then synthesize weight-based metrics, indices, and models within four broad categories—population and community weight structure; condition, growth, and efficiency; reproductive potential and production; and yield and exploitation dynamics—highlighting approaches that inform fish ecology, population and community dynamics, and vital rates. We conclude by identifying key opportunities and methodological innovations needed to expand the effective use of weight-based metrics in freshwater fish conservation and management.

Using quantitative polymerase chain reaction to assess phytoplankton and indicate eutrophication in freshwater rivers: A multiyear nationwide study across the United States

Tue, 7 Jul 2026 15:58:02

Phytoplankton are essential primary producers in fresh surface water that are critical to the health of ecosystems. However, phytoplankton overgrowth due to eutrophication threatens ecological, economic, and public health. Therefore, assessing phytoplankton is fundamental for understanding the productivity, health, and trophic status of freshwater ecosystems. Light microscopy and chlorophyll a assessment are common approaches for studying phytoplankton. They are easy to use, cost-effective, and reliable but have significant limitations. Microscopy has a low throughput and is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Chlorophyll a assessment does not reveal phytoplankton community composition and structure. For comparison, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is widely applied in quantifying microorganisms, offering multiple advantages, including high throughput, sensitivity, accuracy, and robustness. However, a research gap remains regarding the feasibility of using qPCR to assess phytoplankton and indicate trophic status of freshwater bodies. We conducted a nationwide, multiyear study in the United States to compare the performance of qPCR, microscopy, and chlorophyll a assessment in assessing phytoplankton and trophic statuses of multiple freshwater rivers. From early summer to late fall in 2017, 2018, and 2019, we assessed phytoplankton, chlorophyll a, pheophytin a, and the overall Trophic Level Index (TLI_Overall) at the sampling sites in 12 large freshwater rivers in three regions (western, midcontinent, and eastern) across the United States. The seasonal summed abundance of four major phytoplankton taxa [Bacillariophyta (diatoms), Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), Chlorophyta (green algae), and Dinoflagellates (Dinophyta)] ranged from 6.88 log₁₀(GCN·L^–1) (the Connecticut River, 2017) to 9.29 log₁₀(GCN·L^–1) (the Kansas River, 2019) (GCN: gene or genome copy number). qPCR- and microscopy-based phytoplankton abundance of eight phytoplankton taxa had a significant positive allometric or log-linear correlation (adjusted R² = 0.836, p-value < 0.001, n = 815). In addition, qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance had positive allometric or log-linear correlations with chlorophyll a (adjusted R² = 0.5437, p-value < 0.001, n = 164), pheophytin a (adjusted R² = 0.3378, p-value < 0.001, n = 164), and TLI_Overall (adjusted R² = 0.4789, p-value < 0.001, n = 164). Therefore, qPCR is a promising alternative to microscopy and chlorophyll a for studying phytoplankton and trophic status in freshwater rivers. Moreover, phytoplankton abundance had limited temporal variation within each sampling season and over the three sampling seasons in 2017, 2018, and 2019 but showed clear spatial variation. The midcontinent sites had significantly higher phytoplankton abundance, chlorophyll a concentrations, pheophytin a concentrations, and TLI_Overall values than those in the eastern and western rivers, reflecting the higher trophic statuses of the midcontinent rivers. This work also provides the thresholds of qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance for delineating trophic statuses in freshwater rivers. Overall, this work demonstrates that qPCR is a promising tool for studying phytoplankton and characterizing the trophic status of freshwater rivers.

Colonization of southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys volans) to urban Nebraska: Range expansion or human assisted translocation?

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:34:45

Southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys volans; Linnaeus 1758) were first observed in Lincoln, Nebraska, in 2018, 80 km north of their described range. Given that southern flying squirrels are a species of concern within Nebraska, determining the origin of this new population (natural expansion or pet-trade) garnered interest from state biologists. Further, the recent colonization of Lincoln by southern flying squirrels presents a unique opportunity to investigate the genetic implications of a founding event on a small arboreal mammal. The Lincoln population had genetic characteristics suggestive of a single-event colonization with fewer rare alleles and lower genetic diversity than potential source populations and a high genetic variation between populations. Sample size and absence of other geographically close populations in our data set make it difficult to ascertain the origin of the Lincoln population. Based on shared co-ancestry and membership assignment clustering algorithms, the Lincoln population had greater genetic associations with an individual sampled from the native south-eastern Nebraska population relative to other studied locations, suggesting that Lincoln was colonized by a native population.

Biochar modulates the dynamics of legacy nutrients in enhancing soil health and crop productivity

Tue, 26 May 2026 14:24:39

Most major crops in agricultural soils exhibit relatively low nutrient use efficiency for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K), often necessitating supplemental nutrient inputs to achieve sustainable yields. Furthermore, the increasing use of biowastes such as compost, manure, and biosolids, which frequently have nutrient ratios that do not match crop requirements, has contributed to excessive nutrient inputs and subsequent accumulation in soils. This situation has been further exacerbated by intensive farming practices involving multiple cropping cycles per season. Overuse of nutrients causes them to accumulate in the soil, creating a legacy nutrient pool. The application of biochar as soil amendment is considered a potential strategy to control legacy nutrients dynamics. The current review inspects the possible value of biochar in modulating legacy nutrient reserves in the soil, thereby increasing the bioavailability of nutrients and improving crop yield. This review discusses the search scope and synthesis approaches for the bibliometric methodological component through rigorous screening process (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA)), focusing on journal articles published in last 20 years that specifically address legacy nutrient management. The significance of the economic and environmental effects of legacy nutrients and the insufficient knowledge of how biochar application influences nutrient dynamics in soil highlight the necessity for additional research to address current gaps.

Tracking toxins: A pilot investigation of cyanotoxins in north-central Tennessee’s surface waters and wells

Hill, Kristi Lynn; Jaegge, Andrea; Moore, Devin; Byl, Thomas — Tue, 26 May 2026 14:02:41

Cyanobacterial toxins (cyanotoxins) threaten aquatic ecosystems and human health, yet the factors influencing their production and distribution in freshwater remain unclear. In north-central Tennessee, nutrient-rich runoff from agricultural and urban areas, combined with a karst landscape that supports drinking and recreational water use, heightens the need to understand cyanotoxin behavior. To examine cyanotoxin patterns, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation monitored 18 sites, including two wells under the influence of surface water, every two weeks from September 2022 to November 2024. At least one cyanotoxin was detected at all sites, with the highest concentrations in deep reservoirs and lower levels in shallow systems. Most detections occurred during summer and fall, aligning with high temperatures and rapid-onset drought. Statistical analysis indicated that increased specific conductivity and pH raised the likelihood of detecting total microcystin, likely resulting from drought conditions and nutrient-laden runoff. Additionally, dissolved microcystin showed an inverse relationship with Cumberland River water levels, and principal component analysis showed that Secchi depth, chlorophyll a, pH, temperature, and conductivity explained most water quality variability. These results help increase understanding of cyanotoxin distribution and associated water quality conditions during detections to guide future freshwater cyanotoxin monitoring studies.

Waves, watersheds, and sediment in a coral reef embayment: Towards parsimonious models of accumulation and composition

Biggs, Trent; Messina, Alex; Storlazzi, Curt — Wed, 27 May 2026 14:03:54

High sedimentation rates can damage coral reef ecosystems. Sedimentation rates are controlled by both sediment loads from watersheds and resuspension by waves and associated circulation patterns, but the outcomes are system specific and difficult to predict. The percent terrigenous (non-organic and non-carbonaceous) material in sediment is also often used as an indicator of watershed influence, but its dynamics are poorly understood. Sediment accumulation rates, particle size, and percent terrigenous were monitored quasi-monthly for one year (March 2014-April 2015) at nine sites in a coral reef-fringed embayment in American Samoa, where an aggregate quarry had increased sediment loads to the coast but mitigation reduced loads during the monitored period. Gross and net sediment accumulation rates were measured using sediment traps and SedPods (pods), respectively. Gross accumulation rates exceeded thresholds for impacts on coral health during at least one collection period at most sites, with more exceedances on the northern reef where water residence times and sediment availability are higher and corals show signs of sediment stress. Percent terrigenous of coarse sediment was higher in the traps and pods compared with the surrounding benthic sediment, indicating that some of the terrigenous sediment was advected through the bay without accumulating on the reef. The 95th percentile of hourly wave energy density (E₉₅) taken from a global wave model (WaveWatch 3) was the best predictor of gross accumulation rates of both total and carbonate sediment in a log-log regression at most (n = 6) sites (R² range 0.72-0.92), indicating a strong role of resuspension of benthic sediment. Gross accumulation rates of terrigenous sediment were not correlated with E₉₅ and only correlated with SSY at the site nearest the stream mouth, indicating that most terrigenous sediment was not from resuspended benthic material but rather from a consistent watershed source. Percent terrigenous decreased with increasing wave energy due to high accumulation rates of carbonates during periods of high wave energy. Detection of the impact of sediment mitigation at the quarry on sediment accumulation was complicated by low wave energy in the period following mitigation. The use of gross accumulation rates and percent terrigenous as indicators of the magnitude and sources of sediment accumulation over time needs to account for wave-induced resuspension, which can be modelled with a simple power function using inputs from a global wave model.

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

Fri, 29 May 2026 14:04:44

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi²), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi²) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi²) in the United States.

We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations.

Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections.

The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable.

The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community.

This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Rearing method has limited effect on post-release movement of reintroduced age-0 Lake Sturgeon

Wed, 3 Jun 2026 14:37:38

Overfishing, habitat loss, and pollution caused the extirpation of Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) throughout much of the Great Lakes. A Lake Sturgeon reintroduction program using two rearing strategies began in 2018 in the Maumee River, a tributary of Lake Erie. We assessed the movement of streamside or traditionally reared age-0 Lake Sturgeon using acoustic telemetry to determine if rearing strategy affected river residency, movement, and the habitat area used. Tagged sturgeon generally left the Maumee River for Lake Erie on average 3–47 days after stocking and spent most of their time in the western basin of Lake Erie. The majority of sturgeon moved through nearshore areas along the south shore of Lake Erie. While we found no differences in post-stocking movements or habitat area used between the two rearing strategies, understanding how older life stages respond to rearing strategy is needed. Adding upstream stocking sites, using source water to raise eggs or larvae if excessive straying becomes evident, and increased acoustic receiver coverage are options to facilitate and evaluate successful recovery of Lake Sturgeon.

Patterns of rift basin development and the fidelity of the subsidence record: Insights through Bayesian modeling of rapid tectonic subsidence in a Rio Grande rift basin, Socorro, NM, U.S.A

Mon, 8 Jun 2026 15:15:42

Characterizing tectonic subsidence rates within depositional sequences provides direct insight into the driving mechanism(s) of accommodation in a basin. However, the temporal resolution of this record is often stymied by a lack of high-precision and high-resolution ages, which enable a more complete description of basin subsidence drivers. We explore the effect of high-precision and high-resolution ages in modeling accommodation for the Miocene La Jencia Basin of the central Rio Grande rift (RGR) and interpret driving mechanism behavior from these models (e.g., lithospheric thinning). We present a new geochronologic dataset of both laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) and chemical abrasion-isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) data and use these ages in Bayesian accommodation modeling. Models constrained by high-precision and high-accuracy TIMS ages yield peak tectonic subsidence rates exceeding 220 m/Myr, and an average Miocene subsidence of ∼120 m/Myr. While timing and magnitude vary, all models suggest two pulses of rapid Miocene tectonic subsidence, which we interpret to reflect basin-bounding fault movement. Prior to peak subsidence, there was an initial period of fault linkage and organization that occurred over <1–3 Myr that produced the basin-bounding La Jencia-Cerro Colorado fault zone. A comparison of published tectonic subsidence rates to those modeled here shows that while tectonic subsidence during continental rifting is highly variable, the La Jencia Basin rates appear relatively high. However, the significant difference between peak and average La Jencia Basin rates modeled here highlights the potential for underestimation of many records of tectonic subsidence due to a lack of high-precision and high-resolution age constraints. Furthermore, age data and modeling results presented here document fault movement and consequent rates of tectonic subsidence that lower-resolution data would not, providing a high-fidelity case study of continental rift basin development.

Effects of fipronil bait pellets on two cricetid species: Potential implications for plague mitigation and wildlife conservation

Thu, 4 Jun 2026 14:58:03

We evaluated the effects of fipronil bait pellets on two cricetids that commonly occupy colonies of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus; BTPDs): western deer mice (Peromyscus sonoriensis) and northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster). In one experiment, bait pellets (0.96 mg fipronil/bait) were applied at 75 baits/ha to three 1.44-ha plots on a BTPD colony. Mouse abundance declined by 70% from before to 6-10 d after treatment. In a second experiment, bait pellets (0.46 or 1.52 mg fipronil/bait) were applied at 125 baits/ha to four plots (0.85-1.86 ha) on two BTPD colonies; two non-treated plots were baselines (1.09 and 2.06 ha). From before to 11-15 d after treatment, mouse abundance declined by 51%- 67% on the treated plots vs. a decline of 9% on the non-treated plots. Mouse survival from before to 11-15 d after treatment was 51% lower on the treated plots. In a third experiment, bait pellets (0.84 mg fipronil/bait) were applied at 125 baits/acre on two 1.44-ha plots on a BTPD colony; two 1.44-ha non-treated plots were baselines. Mouse survival from before to 30-44 d after treatment was 45% lower on the treated plots; the abundance of deer mice on the treated plots remained similar from before to 30-44 d after treatment, perhaps due to juvenile recruitment and/or immigration. In a laboratory experiment, 33 deer mice offered one bait pellet (0.86 mg fipronil/bait) consumed 27% of their bait, on average (range = 0-100%). Over 3 d, deer mouse mortality was estimated at 53%; mortality increased with fipronil dose, which averaged 11 mg fipronil/kg body mass (range = 3-46 mg/kg). Brain samples were available from 31 deer mice; all tested positive for fipronil sulfone, the primary mammalian metabolite of fipronil, at 19 to 61,205 ng fipronil sulfone/g. Additional experiments could determine if these findings scale up to larger landscapes.

Critical minerals memory match game

Olinger, Danielle A. — Fri, 22 May 2026 14:41:55

An educational information packet about the 2025 List of Critical Minerals, which includes a memory match game about select critical minerals and how they are used.

Indicators of mercury concentration in Lake Trout: Can fish location and appearance provide information to anglers to reduce their exposure?

Laske, Sarah; Young, Daniel; Bartz, Krista; von Biela, Vanessa; Carey, Michael — Tue, 2 Jun 2026 15:16:15

Objective

People are exposed to mercury (Hg) through the consumption of fish. State and federal governments provide broad, often-generalized food safety guidance to reduce exposure; however, numerous rural fishing areas lack testing and location- or species-specific guidance. The aim of this study was to provide tangible, visible, or easily measured characteristics of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush that could convey information on Hg exposure to people harvesting and consuming fish where no location-specific guidance exists.

Methods

We investigated potential indicators of Lake Trout total Hg (THg) concentrations in muscle across 10 lakes in Alaska's national parks. Potential indicators, including lake, lake zone (i.e., littoral, pelagic, profundal), fish length, head size, body condition, and general appearance, were evaluated by competing linear mixed-effects models.

Results

Lake Trout THg concentrations ranged widely from 22 to 1,306 ng/g wet weight. Much of the variation (48%) in THg concentrations was attributed to differences among individual lakes, but the interaction of the fish's lake zone, body length, and head size accounted for an additional 21%. Predicted THg concentrations increased with Lake Trout length and head : body proportion, but the rate of THg concentration increase with length varied by head : body proportion and lake zone.

Conclusions

Given the overwhelming evidence of high lake-to-lake variability in Lake Trout THg concentrations, we find support for use of lake-specific guidance when data are available. When lake-specific THg concentrations are not available, the best potential way to reduce exposure is to harvest and consume Lake Trout with mean predicted THg concentrations that are within state and federal safe consumption guidelines. This included Lake Trout from surface waters (i.e., pelagic or littoral zone) that are ≤70 cm in length; if harvesting fish from deep waters (i.e., profundal zone), lower THg concentrations were found in Lake Trout with heads ≤25% of their body length. The indicators—lake zone, length, and head size—of Lake Trout THg concentrations can provide harvesters with additional information in the absence of data for specific lakes.

Ecology of reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep in Dinosaur National Monument

Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:07:25

Translocations have been widely used to restore and conserve bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations in North America. Some translocations have been successful, but many populations remain small and genetically isolated. Population structure can influence the viability and long-term success of reintroductions. Social ungulates often function as interconnected subpopulations (metapopulations); however, few studies evaluate subpopulation sizes, connectivity, and genetic diversity within metapopulations. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive study of a reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis) population in Dinosaur National Monument in Colorado and Utah, USA, between 2006–2020. We analyzed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collar data, genetic samples, and results of health testing to evaluate abundance, distribution, genetic structure and diversity, habitat use, movement and connectivity, and presence of or exposure to respiratory pathogens. We integrated these analyses to evaluate the outcomes of a reintroduction effort that began in 1952, over 70 years ago, and to inform management decisions in Dinosaur National Monument. We also provide a framework for evaluating metapopulation processes, including a non-invasive approach that links genetic structure with Bayesian spatial capture-recapture analyses to estimate subpopulation sizes. Despite models indicating continuous suitable habitat, we found a spatially structured population with at least 4 subpopulations with constrained connectivity. Evidence from step selection and density analyses suggested that movement among subpopulations may be limited by semi-permeable barriers including rivers and human disturbance, which could contribute to maintenance of spatial structure over time. In 2006, antibody to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae was detected in all geographically and genetically distinct subpopulations. Widespread clinical signs of disease and a confirmed exposure to M. ovipneumoniae in 2019 indicate a long-term disease challenge. Proximity to domestic sheep creates repeated opportunities for introduction of new M. ovipneumoniae strains. We estimated abundance in 2019 at 109 (95% CrI = 87–133), composed of subpopulations ranging from 18–39 animals (95% CrIs from 11–50). Genetic diversity was relatively high compared to other reintroduced and native Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep populations, which is likely a consequence of multiple translocations from different sources. Three of 4 subpopulation centers generally aligned with the locations of original translocation release sites. Persistence in the presence of pathogens may be facilitated by metapopulation structure and moderately high genetic diversity. Conversely, metapopulation structure can also facilitate pathogen persistence. Our approach offers a path to advance understanding of the population ecology of reintroduced bighorn sheep and can inform effective conservation and management of their populations.

Modeling the seasonality of wind-driven hydrocarbon waves in Titan’s polar lakes

Wed, 27 May 2026 13:31:02

Titan, the only body in the solar system aside from Earth with standing liquids on its surface, has polar hydrocarbon lakes and seas. As Titan’s atmosphere generates light winds, there should be waves on the surface of these lakes and seas, yet, direct wave observations are scant. We introduce and use PlanetWaves, an open source 4D spectral wave model, to study Titan’s waves and create seasonal maps of wave shape and propagation on Ontario Lacus and Ligeia Mare. Titan’s modeled waves grow up to 30 times larger than terrestrial waves for the same wind speed, are seasonally present and are largest in the spring and summer when winds are strongest. Average daily winds almost never exceed the wave generation threshold of 0.5–0.7 m/s. Average storm winds (∼1.5 m/s) generate waves 15–48 cm in height with a period ranging 6–10.5 s while maximum storm winds (∼4 m/s) generate waves 2.7–3.2 m in height with a period up to 32 s. Titan’s waves become fetch-independent at ∼40 km for average storm winds occurring ∼1% of a Titan year and ∼100 kilometers for maximum storm winds occurring 2-3 times per Titan decade. On Ontario Lacus, storm winds blow nearly parallel to the eastern shore, potentially driving wave modification of the smooth eastern shoreline. On Ligeia Mare, waves rarely propagate toward a hypothesized wave modified shoreline suggesting that another process, such as tectonics, may contribute to a straight shoreline morphology.

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition—Working collaboratively to understand the geology of the Great Lakes Region

Lopez, Brianna; Shelton, Jenna; Marketti, Michael; Ritzel, Kate; Graham, Brandon — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:37:48

Introduction

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition (GLGMC), commonly referred to as the “Coalition,” is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of Ontario. The member States receive funding for geologic mapping work from the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP), whereas Ontario participates as a nonfunded partner. The mission of the GLGMC is to produce three-dimensional (3D) geologic maps that depict unconsolidated sediments and near-surface bedrock in the Great Lakes region of North America. Geologic maps are the basis of most earth science investigations and help support resource exploration (energy, minerals, groundwater), natural hazard mitigation, infrastructure development, and land-use planning, all of which can be used to advance economic development and strengthen national security in the Great Lakes region.

During the last few million years, the Great Lakes region has experienced repeated glacial advances and retreats, leaving behind extensive sediments, abundant natural resources, and widespread effects on the underlying bedrock geology (Swezey and others, 2022). Linked by shared histories of past glaciations, industrial agriculture, and legacy automotive, coal, steel, and manufacturing industries, the GLGMC member States collaborate to improve the understanding of the 3D distribution of the sediments overlying the region’s bedrock (fig. 1). Developing a comprehensive subsurface 3D framework of this glaciated terrain can provide earth science data to policymakers at all levels. These insights facilitate informed decisions on the exploration, use, and protection of vital resources, such as critical minerals, industrial materials, and aquifers, thereby supporting economic prosperity and the well-being of the citizens of this region.

Since its inception in 1998, the Coalition has completed more than 100 geologic mapping projects across the Great Lakes region. Each project aims to deliver geologic maps, 3D datasets, and other information that improves understanding of the geology of the Great Lakes region, with an emphasis on economic and water resources. Key deliverables include 3D geologic maps and models typically portraying sediment thickness, often derived from top-of-bedrock and borehole data. These products are developed through a combination of fieldwork, subsurface modeling, and the collection and analysis of rock and sediment cores.

To support Coalition goals, member States collaborate with scientists working on related STATEMAP, EDMAP, and FEDMAP projects. Coalition scientists also engage with Tribal Nations in the Great Lakes region to ensure that Tribal interests pertaining to Coalition work are addressed. Through this collaboration, the Coalition unites the efforts of State, Federal, and Tribal Nation stakeholders to advance geologic data production and enhance understanding of the geologic resources of the Great Lakes region.

Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in the Berkine, Illizi, Hamra, Murzuq, and Erdis Kufra Basins of northern Africa, 2026

Thu, 21 May 2026 13:57:13

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 419 million barrels of oil and 5.5 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Berkine, Illizi, Hamra, Murzuq, and Erdis Kufra Basins of northern Africa.

Advancing ecosystem recovery with diverse species plantings in tropical forest restoration

Hamilton, Debra; Rojas, Victorino; Donovan, Therese — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 16:19:11

Tropical forest restoration has increased in the past decades, with possible advancements given the UN declaration of the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration”. However, robust assessments to compare ecosystem functions among restored forest stages are essential. We evaluated 13 actively restored forest stands ranging from 3 to 21 years of age and compared measures of forest biodiversity, structure, and ecosystem function to four 70+ year old “reference” stands that serve as restoration “targets” in the study region of the Premontane wet forest of Costa Rica. The restored stands were planted with an average of 13 tree species on abandoned pastures that were fallow for at least two years. Sixteen tree-stand attributes and six ecosystem function estimates were assessed, including: annual biomass (C) accumulation, N-fixation potential, threatened species conservation, and the provision of avian frugivore forage, insect habitat, and insect pollination. Using Principal Component Analysis, linear modeling, and Mahalanobis distance analyses, we learned that planting a diversity of tree species sets the stage for forest recovery at early restoration ages, with an inflection point at 15 years towards older reference forest characteristics and functions. Given that all restoration ages provided tree diversity and some level of ecosystem functions, the value of all restored stands in the landscape is notable. The assessment methods are easily employed, thereby providing an accessible tool to restoration practitioners.

Factors affecting benthic macroinvertebrate health in the City of Roanoke, Virginia, 2020–2023

Miller, Samuel; Aguilar, Marcus; Helsley, Logan; Entrekin, Sally — Fri, 29 May 2026 14:23:57

Major waterways in the City of Roanoke (City) have failed to meet Virginia’s aquatic life designated use since 1996. Segments of the upper Roanoke River lack healthy benthic macroinvertebrate communities which prompted a total maximum daily load (TMDL) study by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) to identify the most probable stressor(s) causing the impairment. Excess fine sediment was identified as the most probable stressor impairing benthic macroinvertebrates on portions of the Roanoke River in 2006, and a watershed implementation plan published in 2016 required communities within the impaired watershed to implement projects that would reduce the load of fine sediment entering the Roanoke River. Additional benthic macroinvertebrate sampling and stream habitat assessments along the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek (a tributary to the Roanoke River that flows through the City) revealed continued impaired conditions, and subsequent stressor identification analysis was completed in 2023. Samples collected downstream of the City on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek generally showed more impaired conditions relative to samples collected at locations upstream of the City. Based on this evaluation, sediment and sediment-bound polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were identified as probable stressors while specific conductance, total nitrogen, and sediment metals were possible stressors in Tinker Creek; however, only a sediment TMDL target was identified to address impaired benthic macroinvertebrate communities. In the Roanoke River upstream of the Niagara Dam, sediment and total phosphorus were identified as probable stressors, sediment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and sediment PCB were considered possible stressors; however, the TMDL target was only for total phosphorus.

The City partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2016 to continuously monitor water quality and streamflow conditions on a major tributary of Tinker Creek, Lick Run, and by 2020, four similar monitoring stations were installed on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek near the locations of benthic macroinvertebrate sampling. Monitored parameters included streamflow and/or gage height (water level), water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and turbidity. Turbidity is a measure of the relative clarity of the water and was previously used to model suspended-sediment concentrations at the monitoring stations. The City also contracted Kirk Environmental, LLP (KE) to collect benthic macroinvertebrate samples and stream habitat assessments near the locations of the water-quality monitoring stations. Identified benthic macroinvertebrates were used to calculate the Virginia Stream Condition Index (SCI), a multi-metric index composed of eight biological attributes that represent elements of the structure and function of the benthic macroinvertebrate community that measure diversity, composition, and tolerance to pollution.

Study objective: In this report, benthic macroinvertebrate samples and stream habitat assessment scores collected at four locations on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek by KE and the VDEQ between 2020 and 2023 were compared to measured water-quality and streamflow conditions prior to sampling to evaluate patterns between benthic macroinvertebrate health, water quality, and hydrology.

Rebuttal to correspondence on “Examining the compositional selectivity of hydrocarbon oxidation products using liquid–liquid extraction and solid-phase extraction techniques”

David C. Podgorski, ; Bekins, Barbara; Zito, Phoebe — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:55:07

No abstract available.

Patterns of recent brook trout invasion in bull trout streams in relation to habitat, source connectivity, biotic resistance, and disturbance

Voss, Nicholas; Bowersox, Brett; Nolfi, Daniel; Quist, Michael C. — Tue, 9 Jun 2026 14:49:51

Anticipating biological invasions by nonnative species is critical to effective conservation. Nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis represents one of the most widespread threats to native bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the factors allowing or preventing ongoing range expansions are poorly understood. We addressed this uncertainty by resampling 221 survey locations in bull trout streams in Idaho and relating shifts in brook trout occupancy to four controls on biological invasion (habitat suitability, source connectivity, disturbance, and biotic resistance to invasion). Brook trout detections increased substantially between the historical period (58 sites) and contemporary period (94 sites). Site colonizations were positively associated with water temperature and negatively associated with landscape resistance metrics (i.e., highest streamflow and gradient between a site and the nearest source) in all top models. In contrast, there was weak support for a positive association with wildfire and limited support for hydrologic distance and biotic resistance metrics. Brook trout invasions in bull trout habitat are ongoing, limited by cold temperatures, and highly influenced by dispersal barriers that may not inhibit more mobile native salmonids.

Functional restructuring of the global soil microbiome under multiple stressors

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 20:12:40

Microbes, as the planet’s most abundant and diverse organisms, drive soil functions globally and are vulnerable to environmental stressors triggered by global change. Yet, knowledge regarding the impacts of multiple environmental stressors on their functional profiles as well as the consequences for soil functionality largely remains unknown. Here, we analyze two global-scale datasets including information on soil metagenomics and multiple environmental stressors. We find that across terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, up to 60% of all functional genes significantly shift when soil microbes experience the high-level of concurrent stressors. In this regard, the relative abundances of genes involved in microbial growth are negatively linked to the increasing number of stressors. Conversely, those genes linked to stress resistance and energy production exhibit positive responses. Taken together, our findings highlight a significant restructuring of global soil functional microbiomes in response to multiple environmental stressors. Consequently, such restructuring drives community-level shifts in matter and energy reallocations, thereby impacting the maintenance of soil functionality under the projected global change.

Methodology for construction of a three-layer geologic model of the conterminous United States using land surface, top of bedrock, and top of basement

Sweetkind, Donald S. — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:39:21

This report describes the methodology used for the construction of a digital three-layer geologic model of the conterminous United States by mapping the altitude of three surfaces: land surface, the top of bedrock, and the top of basement. These surfaces are mapped through the compilation and synthesis of published stratigraphic horizons from numerous topical studies. The mapped surfaces create a three-layer geologic model with three geomaterial-based subdivisions: unconsolidated to weakly consolidated sediment; layered consolidated rock strata that constitute bedrock; and crystalline rocks that are described as “basement,” consisting of either igneous, metamorphic, or highly deformed rocks. The data compilation and synthesis are highly dependent on the definition of the informal terms “bedrock” and “basement,” which may describe different ages or types of rock in different parts of the conterminous United States. This report presents the conceptualization of the three mapped layers, describes the datasets used, and summarizes the decisions made while compiling the three-layer model from the various sources. This digital dataset was created as part of efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey to develop subsurface geologic data in geospatial form as part of a broad directive to develop two-dimensional and three-dimensional geologic information at detailed, national, and continental scales. This digital dataset partly fulfills the goal of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program to construct a national-scale three-dimensional geologic model.

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin domestic-supply aquifer study unit, 2022—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Harkness, Jennifer; Faulkner, Kirsten; Jurgens, Bryant — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:49:39

The quality of water accessed by domestic wells (here referred to as domestic groundwater resources) in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin (basin number 5-022.14) was assessed as part of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP), in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. Kern County is at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley in California, and about 30,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells for drinking water. Domestic wells typically draw from shallower parts of the aquifer system than public-supply wells and can be more vulnerable to effects from surface activities. Kern County is host to a highly productive agricultural industry, with Bakersfield as the main urban center. The Kern River runs through Bakersfield from the southern Sierra Nevada and intersects the Kern Water Bank, one of the largest groundwater banking operations in California, at the Kern River Intertie. The section of the Kern River running through the Kern Water Bank is dry most years. Kern County also encompasses some of the most productive oil and gas basins in California, with extensive underground and surface disposal of oil-field wastewater.

This study was based on data collected from 33 sites sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA-PBP in 2022. To provide context for the water quality assessment, measured concentrations were compared to regulatory and non-regulatory health-based and aesthetic benchmarks. A grid-based method was used to estimate the proportions of the groundwater resources used for domestic-supply wells that have water-quality constituents below (low relative concentration), approaching (moderate relative concentration), or above (high relative concentration) benchmark concentrations. At least one measured constituent with a regulatory benchmark was categorized as having a high relative concentration in 72 percent of the aquifer area used for domestic groundwater resources. Inorganic constituents were detected at high concentrations in 45 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents detected above regulatory benchmarks were arsenic, nitrate, and uranium. At least one organic constituent was detected at high concentrations in 41 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents exceeding regulatory benchmarks were the fumigants 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP), 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (dibromochloropropane [DBCP]), 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB), and the per-and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) perfluorooctanesulfonate. The disinfection by-product chloroform, the fumigant 1,2-dichloropropane, the herbicides atrazine and hexazinone, and the herbicide degradates 2-chloro-6-ethylamino-4-amino-s-triazine, 2-chloro-4,6-diamino-s-triazine, 4-hydroxychlorothalonil, and metolachlor sulfonic acid were detected in more than 10 percent of domestic groundwater resources, but concentrations did not exceed regulatory benchmarks.

Land use, groundwater age (fraction of modern water and mean age), and geochemical environment (oxic or anoxic conditions, pH, alkalinity) were associated with the distribution of high relative concentrations of inorganic and organic constituents. Young, oxygenated water is recharged along the Kern River and adjacent recharge ponds, or as irrigation water in the agricultural areas. High concentrations of nitrate and volatile organic compounds occurred in the oxic water in urban and agricultural areas. The fumigants 1,2,3-TCP, DBCP, and EDB were reported throughout the agricultural areas, whereas chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and PFAS were associated with urban land use. High uranium concentrations were associated with young, modern groundwater in agricultural areas with low pH and high bicarbonate. Total dissolved solids increased with distance from the Kern River, as the contributions of fresh, oxic water decreased. High concentrations of arsenic were present in older anoxic or alkaline groundwater away from areas of recharge. Overall, groundwater age, redox conditions, and the source of recharge as a result of different land uses contribute to large aquifer-scale portions of domestic groundwater resources that exceed health-based benchmarks for nitrate, uranium, and fumigant concentrations.

CoralCache: A virtual coral core repository for transparent and reproducible annual growth rate analyses

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:19:29

As science fields enter the Big Data revolution, open-access repositories are essential for addressing larger-scale questions than are possible for single researchers by making data findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). Furthermore, transparent data and code are increasingly important for reproducible research, especially for data types that inherently require subjective human interpretations. These ideas are applicable to coral sclerochronology, as the field has long been characterized by individual researchers collecting and analyzing coral skeletal cores from their study sites without substantial data sharing or archiving of the core images to meet FAIR principles. Here, we present CoralCache, a virtual coral core repository that not only archives image datasets (i.e., digitized X-rays and computed tomography scans), but also observer interpretations of the density banding patterns. CoralCache is linked to a graphical user interface, CoralCT, which together offer a way forward for coral growth rate analysis that is reproducible and collaborative. The data organization systems presented here could also be readily applied to related archives such as tree rings or bivalve shells.

Precipitation-based flood-inundation maps for the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries at Lee’s Summit, Missouri, 2024

Atkinson, Allison — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:19:14

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, assessed flooding of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries for varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, varying antecedent runoff conditions, and projected climate-change conditions. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps for a 2.95-mile reach of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries within the city.

A two-dimensional U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; ver. 6.5) rain-on-grid model was calibrated to selected runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. Lowest adjacent grades for structures within the nearby study area were incorporated into the terrain, and depth grids and water-surface elevation grids were developed for the study area. Simulated velocities at selected bridge locations were also developed from the model. The model was calibrated using water-surface elevation data collected from water-level loggers (pressure transducers) and streamflow measurements and water-surface elevation measurements made at a reference point during runoff events. The calibrated HEC–RAS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 15-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability (1-year to 1,000-year recurrence intervals). Flood-inundation maps were produced for depths at a reference location of 3 to 16 feet, or a depth exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 1-foot-increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location.

Within the HEC–RAS model, 240 scenarios were developed from the design rainfall events with each of 3 antecedent conditions. Additional scenarios were created to simulate the effects of projected precipitation scenarios on the 100-year recurrence interval, 24-hour storm and the 100-year recurrence interval, 6-hour storm. All simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location.

The flood-inundation maps are shown on a web mapping application made available to the public through the City of Lee’s Summit (hyperlink will be added when available). The flood-inundation maps are tied to real-time precipitation data obtained from the Automated Surface Observing System weather station at the Lee’s Summit Municipal Airport, accessible at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MO_ASOS. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding observed rainfall, could help provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and for postflood recovery efforts.

Remote sensing enables basin-scale inventories of coal mine methane

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 16:30:40

Underground coal mines are important global sources of methane, but emission estimates are uncertain. We show that emission estimates for individual mines from aircraft remote-sensing surveys in the United States agree within 40% with direct measurements used for national emission reporting (IPCC Tier 3 estimate). Such direct measurements are unavailable in most countries, which rely on estimated emission factors (EFs) applied to coal-production rates. We find that EFs from IPCC Tier 1 and the Model for Calculating Coal Mine Methane (MC2M) methods overestimate U.S. emissions 3-fold due to incorrect dependence on mine depth. An IPCC Tier 2 method using measured basin-specific mine gas content agrees with direct emission measurements but does not account for gob well emissions and requires gas content data that are generally unavailable. We show that aircraft remote sensing for a small sample of mines can successfully estimate basin-specific EFs for ventilation shafts and gob wells, enabling estimates of basin- and national-scale emissions. We discuss how the method can be applied with satellite remote sensing to quantify coal emissions worldwide.

Whatever it takes— Shaping the L&O Letters Early Career Publication Honor to deliver true benefit

Thu, 21 May 2026 14:19:22

There are clear advantages for those who openly share their research. Publishing Open Access (OA) articles can increase author visibility (McCabe and Snyder 2014), improve productivity metrics (i.e., more diverse and higher citation rates; Huang et al. 2024; Piwowar et al. 2018), widen collaborative networks (Tai and Robinson 2018), and help secure future funding and/or comply with funder mandates (Herrmannova et al. 2019; Larivière and Sugimoto 2018; McKiernan et al. 2016 and references therein). These benefits can be vital for students and early career researchers (ECRs) trying to advance and thrive in academia. However, publishing papers in Gold OA journals such as L&O Letters comes at a notable financial cost, as these journals require that the corresponding author (or their organization or funder) pay a fee to make their published article immediately freely available to the public. These article processing charges can be prohibitively expensive (Fontúrbel and Vizentin-Bugoni 2021; Mekonnen et al. 2022; Ross-Hellauer et al. 2022). While Read and Publish agreements and waiver programs may be available to help cover these costs, these programs often exclude independent authors as well as those affiliated with ineligible or non-participating institutions (e.g., publisher waivers using the Research4Life eligibility criteria for access currently only allow authors from one of 13 South American countries/territories to publish free of charge). Besides the financial barrier, authors from underrepresented groups can also face a myriad of other publishing roadblocks, such as linguistic challenges (for speakers of English as a foreign language; Amano et al. 2023; Franco-Santos 2024; Ramírez-Castañeda 2020) and geopolitical-scientific bias (e.g., science conducted in the Global South being seen as less impactful and innovative than that conducted in the Global North; Ghosh 2022; Smits et al. 2025). For context, Global South (GS) and Global North (GN) are not geographic determinations (i.e., South and North hemispheres), but geopolitical classifications regarding a nation's level of development (underdeveloped, developing, or developed). For example: Australia and Brazil are both located in the southern hemisphere, but the former is considered as a Global North (developed) country and the latter as a Global South (underdeveloped or developing) country.

When a subset of researchers is unable to openly publish their work, the diversity of voices represented in OA literature can decline (Williams et al. 2023). Loss of diversity is a loss to science, as diversity increases productivity, innovation, and scientific impact (refer to opening quote; Freeman and Huang 2014; AlShebli et al. 2018; Tomillo et al. 2022). To partially address the above-mentioned challenges and enable underfunded ECRs to publish their work in OA format, the biennial L&O Letters Early Career Publication Honor (ECPH) was established in 2020 by the ASLO Raelyn Cole Editorial (RCE) Fellows (Hotaling et al. 2022). Below we reflect on the benefits, outcomes, and scientific impact of the 2022 call and introduce the articles it helped publish in L&O Letters, which are bundled in this section of the ECPH Virtual Issue. Articles published in L&O Letters during other calls are available in their respective sections. We also refer the reader to six articles published by ECRs in other journals (not included in this Virtual Issue) whose content originally warranted their leading author an ECPH in 2022.

Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs) from separate breeding sites subdivides the Prairie Pothole Region in space and time during southbound migration

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 15:08:54

Some staging regions support multiple groups of the same migratory species, each of which may use the region differently. Characterizing the ways, in which separate groups use such regions can therefore help to identify vulnerabilities during this sensitive period of the annual cycle. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a massive wetland complex in the northern Great Plains of North America used by ∼11 million shorebirds during migration. The PPR has been heavily modified by agriculture and is experiencing varied effects of global climate change, threatening the health of the shorebirds that rely on it. Here, we used 6 seasons of southbound tracking data of Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs)—a long-distance migratory shorebird species with an estimated population decline of 63% over the last 4 decades—from 9 sites across their breeding range to explore differences in migratory behavior within this important staging region. We found that 75% of tracked individuals used the region during southbound migration, and T. flavipes from different breeding sites detoured 110–875 km from their most direct migratory route to access the PPR. Individuals that arrived later stayed longer and made more stops within the region than those that arrived early. Individuals originating from different breeding sites also displayed spatial and temporal segregation within the region: T. flavipes from southwest and central Alaska relied heavily on the northwestern PPR, while those from Canada used the central and southeastern portions of the PPR. Finally, timing of use varied among groups, but the southeastern PPR became increasingly important over the course of the southbound migratory window, as other wetlands likely dried out. Our study highlights the portions of the PPR of critical importance to migrating T. flavipes and the diversity of ways, in which different groups from within the same species can use a single staging region.

ECCOE Landsat quarterly calibration and validation report—Quarter 4, 2025

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:12:17

Executive Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level.

This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 4 (October–December) of 2025. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov.

One specific activity that the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team closely monitored was a Landsat 9 safehold anomaly. On October 17, 2025, Landsat 9 experienced a Solar Array Drive Assembly potentiometer fault. The onboard fault response put both the Operational Land Imager sensor and the Thermal Infrared Sensor into safe mode. Additionally, the Thermal Infrared Sensor focal plane assembly was turned off, but the cryocooler remained on. On October 20, 2025, the Solar Array Drive Assembly recovery commanding was successfully performed to put the spacecraft into nadir viewing mode. The following day, Operational Land Imager activation and recovery started, including focal plane assembly warmup. After reaching nominal operational temperatures and achieving thermal stability, science imaging resumed on October 23, 2025. Additional information about the Landsat 9 safehold anomaly is here: https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-9-returns-normal-operations-following-brief-safehold.

System characterization report on Tanager

Kim, Minsu; Park, Seonkyung; Clauson, Jeff; Vrabel, Jim; Sampath, Ajit — Mon, 6 Jul 2026 13:42:40

Executive Summary

This report addresses the system characterization of the Tanager satellite hyperspectral sensor created by Planet Labs PBC and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced and delivered by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports present and detail the methodology and procedures for characterization; present technical and operational information about the Tanager hyperspectral sensor; and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions.

This report summarizes the sensor performance of the Tanager based on the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization process. In summary, we determined that the Tanager exhibits a band- to- band geometric error ranging from −0.074 to 0.097 pixel. Compared to the Landsat Operational Land Imager, geometric offsets ranged from −5.980 meters (−0.20 pixel) to 11.348 meters (0.40 pixel). Radiometric comparisons showed offsets between −0.004 and 0.056 with slopes from 0.830 to 1.066. Spectral shifts are found between 0.65 and 0.75 nanometers. Finally, spatial performance evaluation yielded a point spread function full width at half maximum of 1.27 to 1.75 pixels, a relative edge response of 0.802 to 0.651, and a modulation transfer function at Nyquist of 0.488 to 0.253.

Bird migration and energetics simulations incorporating oil spill effects

West, Benjamin; Wildhaber, Mark; Thogmartin, Wayne; Hooper, Michael — Wed, 20 May 2026 15:16:44

Oil spills are well-known for causing acute mortality of birds, but sublethal and delayed impacts are less understood. Focusing on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), we used simulation modeling to explore how sublethal oiling may affect avian survival and breeding ground body condition. We used empirically informed migration and energetics simulations to model hypothetical spills occurring in northern Arkansas, USA occurring in either January to simulate thermoregulatory stress or March to simulate pre-migration effects. We modeled trace and lightly oiled female mallards (≤5% or 6 to 20% of feather area oiled, respectively), incorporating oiling-induced energetic effects on thermoregulation, flight, and energetic gain. We found that mortality was generally higher for simulated spills occurring in January versus March. In the simulations, mallards lost body mass due to oiling, but surviving individuals could partially recover body mass before arriving at the breeding grounds. Including oiling-induced energetic gain effects in simulations increased mortality as well as increased overall variability of simulation results. This modeling effort identified an important gap in knowledge regarding oiled bird energetics, specifically a need to better quantify oiling-induced energetic gain changes. Although the model is currently limited to a specific species and geographic area, it serves as a proof-of-concept for future research and modeling efforts aimed at understanding more broadly the impacts of oil spills on avian populations.

Monazite and xenotime U-Pb geochronology and thermometry of the Blue Ridge and Inner Piedmont of North Carolina: Implications for the thermal-metamorphic evolution of the southern Appalachian metamorphic “core”

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 15:05:41

The southern Appalachian orogen preserves a complex distribution of metamorphism and deformation varying in timing, magnitude, and spatial extent. These complexities give rise to disparate interpretations for southern Appalachian tectonic evolution, which complicates the testing and interpretation of tectonic models in this system. New monazite (Mnz) and xenotime (Xtm) laser ablation split stream (LASS) analyses alongside Mnz-Xtm thermometry in the orogenic core in the eastern Blue Ridge (EBR), western Inner Piedmont (WIP), and Cat Square terranes (CST) of North Carolina yield new constraints that define distinct pro- and retrograde metamorphic events. The EBR preserves two prograde thermal events: the Taconic (∼470-440 Ma, >660°C) and Neoacadian (∼380-340 Ma, 600–700°C), separated by a period of cooling (exhumation?) and followed by garnet breakdown from 339 to 329 Ma. Evidence of pervasive Neoacadian ductile deformation in the EBR is largely limited to the Brevard fault zone (BFZ), indicating that a major rheological gradient existed across the BFZ during the Neoacadian and early Alleghanian. Southeast of the BFZ, in the WIP and CST, monazite data define a protracted Neoacadian evolution from early mineral growth at ∼405 Ma at ∼450–600°C to >700°C at ∼360 Ma, followed by early Alleghanian retrograde metamorphism and deformation (<345 Ma, 350–500°C). These constraints, together with previously reported thermobarometric data, define a P-T-t evolution for the WIP and CST consistent with Neoacadian crustal flow, while the coeval presence of a thermal-rheological boundary along the BFZ further supports a model of Neoacadian crustal “escape” flow within the orogen.

Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy

Wed, 20 May 2026 13:25:16

During the Quaternary, trees responded to the climatic changes of glacial–interglacial cycles with large-scale range shifts. Over cold glacials, temperate tree species contracted their ranges and survived in areas known as refugia. Several studies point to the Euganean Hills (Colli Euganei), in Veneto, northern Italy, as one of the northernmost European refugia of temperate tree species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca 23 000–19 000 calibrated years BP). Using LandClim, a spatially explicit, dynamic forest landscape model, we demonstrate that climate conditions during the LGM likely allowed temperate tree species to persist in the Euganean Hills. The identified refugial locations lie at intermediate to high elevations and in sheltered valleys within the hilly complex. Therefore, the combined palaeoecological and modelling evidence suggests that today's temperate forests of the Euganean Hills have a full glacial legacy.

Simulations under future climate conditions suggest a collapse of the sub-mediterranean and oro-mediterranean deciduous forests that are prevalent today and the expansion of thermo-mediterranean evergreen forests (with e.g. Quercus ilex, Q. suber, Olea europaea and Pinus sp.). Specifically, the extrazonal population of oro-mediterranean Fagus sylvatica, which is unique to the Po Plain and likely persisted locally through several glacial–interglacial cycles, is predicted to sharply decline and face local extinction, underscoring a conservation hazard.

Distribution, abundance, breeding activities, and restoration efforts for the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2025 Annual Report

Lynn, Suellen; Howell, Scarlett; Kus, Barbara E. — Mon, 18 May 2026 14:01:33

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of the distribution, abundance, and breeding activity of the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus; flycatcher) and to present results of management actions implemented to attract flycatchers and enhance flycatcher habitat at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP, or Base). Surveys for the flycatcher were done on Base between May 6 and July 23, 2025. All MCBCP’s historically occupied riparian habitat (core survey area) was surveyed for flycatchers in 2025. None of the non-core survey areas were surveyed in 2025.

No resident flycatchers were detected on Base in 2025. The one resident (female) present in 2024 did not return to the territory she occupied in 2024, and she was not detected within the historically occupied habitat surveyed in 2025.

Eight transient Willow Flycatchers of unknown subspecies were observed on two of the five drainages surveyed in 2025: Las Flores Creek and the Santa Margarita River. No Willow Flycatchers were detected at Fallbrook, Pilgrim, or San Mateo Creeks. Transients in 2025 occurred in mixed willow and riparian scrub habitats, dominated by multiple willow species (Salix spp.). Exotic vegetation was recorded in most flycatcher locations and was dominant (cover of exotics greater than 50 percent) in more than half of all transient locations. The most common exotic plant in habitat used by flycatchers was poison hemlock (Conium maculatum). All six of the flycatchers that were observed closely enough to determine banding status were unbanded.

Two measures were initiated in recent years to attract and retain resident breeding flycatchers on MCBCP: conspecific attraction using flycatcher song broadcasts and installation of artificial seeps to enhance flycatcher habitat. We surveyed plots with and without speakers that broadcast flycatcher vocalizations throughout the breeding season and detected two transient Willow Flycatchers within 20 meters of one speaker in 2025. We set up permanent vegetation sampling points surrounding artificial seeps and nearby sites without artificial seeps (Reference sites) to determine the effects of surface-water enhancement by seep pumps. Vegetation cover was highest near the ground and decreased with increasing height. Woody vegetation made up most of the cover at all height categories. Soil saturation in 2025 was higher at the sites near seeps than at the Reference sites and was associated with higher native herbaceous cover and lower non-native cover.

Continuous stream discharge, salinity, and associated data collected in the lower St. Johns River and its tributaries, Florida, 2023

Carson, Jennifer N.; Benacquisto, Matthew T. — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:09:14

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District, deepened the St. Johns River channel in Jacksonville, Florida, to accommodate larger, fully loaded cargo vessels. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, monitored stage, discharge, and (or) water temperature and salinity at 26 continuous data collection sites in the St. Johns River and its tributaries.

This report contains information collected during the 2023 water year, from October 2022 to September 2023. Data at each site were compared for the length of the project, 8 years so far, and on a yearly basis to show the annual variability of discharge and salinity.

The countywide annual rainfall for the 2023 water year was below the average yearly rainfall in four of the five counties. Annual mean discharge at 9 of the 10 tributary monitoring sites was lower for the 2023 water year than for the 2022 water year, and the annual mean flow at Broward River below Biscayne Boulevard near Jacksonville, Florida (USGS site number 02246751), was the lowest recorded at that site for the 8 years of data collection. The annual mean discharge for each of the main-stem sites was higher for the 2023 water year than for the 2022 water year and was above the average for the 8 years of data collected so far.

Among the tributary sites, annual mean salinity was highest at Clapboard Creek above Buckhorn Bluff near Jacksonville, Fla. (USGS site number 302657081312400), the site closest to the Atlantic Ocean, and was lowest at Durbin Creek near Fruit Cove, Fla. (USGS site number 022462002), the site farthest from the ocean, for all years. Annual mean salinity data from the main-stem sites indicate that salinity decreased with distance upstream from the ocean, which was expected. Annual mean salinity for the 2023 water year was higher than or equal to that of the 2022 water year for all main-stem and tributary sites, except at St. Johns River at Dancy Point near Spuds, Fla. (USGS site number 294213081345300), which was lower. Three main-stem monitoring stations (USGS site numbers 295856081372301, 02245340, and 301057081414800) and six tributary monitoring stations (USGS site numbers 300803081354500, 022462002, 301204081434900, 02246459, 02246518, and 02246804) either had the highest annual mean salinities or tied with the highest annual mean salinities at their respective sites since data collection began.

Analyses of eye lens stable isotopes across ontogeny of trophically diverse freshwater salmonids

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 15:51:53

Ontogenetic niche shifts in fishes are nearly universal but remain poorly understood in many species despite being fundamentally important for the persistence, management, and conservation of fish populations, including those of vulnerable salmonids. Eye lens stable isotope analysis has proven useful in studying ontogeny in some marine species but has rarely been applied in freshwater fishes. We conducted among the first applications of eye lens stable isotope analysis in two salmonids, Arctic Charr (Salvelinus alpinus) and Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), in four North American lakes at the southern extent of the range of Arctic Charr (Maine, USA). Our goal was to determine if ontogenetic patterns varied between individuals and populations in ways that relate to differential vulnerability. Like studies in marine systems, we found patterns in lens isotopic values that agree with expected ontogenetic patterns to reach known adult trophic niches. Within lakes and individuals examined in this study, Arctic Charr appeared more dependent on pelagic resources than co-occurring Brook Trout through life. Using Bayesian hierarchical linear regressions, we found evidence that ontogenetic shifts in trophic position (measured by δ¹⁵N) of Arctic Charr may vary among lakes. Arctic Charr in some populations increased in trophic position through life (population lifetime δ¹⁵N posterior mean slope estimate = 1.01) while others showed no substantial changes (population lifetime δ¹⁵N posterior mean slope = 0.05), which may relate to differences in habitat and fish assemblage among our study lakes. Our study suggests that individual life stages and populations of salmonids are likely to respond to climate variability (e.g., basal resource shifts) differentially, which could warrant population and life-stage-specific management.

Multi-proxy thermal history of basin heating during Cordilleran orogenesis in the Magallanes-Austral retroarc foreland basin, Patagonian Andes

Thu, 21 May 2026 15:02:01

Resolving thermal histories in sedimentary basins is crucial for interpreting orogenic growth, basin burial, and tectonic processes during Cordilleran orogenesis. In the Magallanes–Austral Basin, Patagonian Andes, we integrate new (U-Th)/He thermochronology, vitrinite reflectance (%R_o), calcite-cement clumped isotope data and thermal history modelling to resolve the origin of the regionally extensive Paleogene unconformity (51°S–50°S). Thermal history modelling results require post-depositional heating of Palaeocene (Danian–Selandian) strata below the unconformity and suggest maximum burial temperatures of 87°C–101°C (55–52 Ma) and 89°C–92°C (18–16 Ma). For lower Eocene strata above the unconformity, Miocene burial temperatures (89°C–92°C) are consistent with calcite cement formation temperatures (~62°C–92°C) from carbonate clumped isotopes. Our results indicate that basin burial and heating between ca. 60 and 52 Ma were likely driven by shallowing of the subducting Farallon plate and enhanced plate coupling preceding arrival of the Farallon–Phoenix mid-ocean ridge. Subsequent basin inversion and cooling from ca. 52 to 44 Ma correspond with subduction of this mid-ocean ridge. Refined thermal models, constrained by expanded thermochronometric and organic maturation datasets, indicate that up to ~1.7–2.0 km of proximal foreland basin strata were removed during uplift and erosion across the Paleogene basin margin. A return to basin subsidence beginning ca. 44 Ma may reflect dynamic subsidence after passage of the mid-ocean ridge and renewed coupling between the fold-thrust belt and foreland basin system. Neogene thermal histories document continued subsidence, localized hot orogenic fluid flow along stratigraphic boundaries, followed by a final phase of basin inversion and cooling at ca. 18–16 Ma, which we attribute to regional uplift associated with Chile ridge subduction. Altogether, this study demonstrates that multiple thermal indices when analysed and modelled can provide clarity for tectonic and stratigraphic events that affect foreland basins.

Spawning habitat suitability models for Lake Erie cisco (Coregonus artedi) during the historical period of pre- and post-population declines 1877–1957

Tue, 19 May 2026 14:46:14

Coregonine fishes play a key role in the food webs and fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes and are a major focus of basin-wide conservation efforts. In Lake Erie, management goals prioritize rebuilding spawning populations of cisco (Coregonus artedi). However, the historical distribution of cisco spawning habitat and the environmental conditions that influence early life-stage success remain poorly defined. We used a novel database of historical coregonine spawning observations as well as novel habitat variables to describe historical conditions to model and determine where and what habitat was historically most suitable for spawning cisco in Lake Erie. The environmental predictors that produced the best model included reefs, distance to rivers, historical substrate, coefficient of variation of ice duration, fetch, and circulation. The highest suitability occurred in areas of high reef probability, near river mouths, in rocky and sandy substrate, and in areas of low variability in historical ice, fetch, and circulation. Suitable spawning habitat is predicted mostly around reefs in the western basin as well as along the coast and near rivers lake-wide. Our model identifies important habitat features and allows managers to envision relevant scales and locations at which to focus restoration efforts.

Enduring cultural legacies affect Euro-American wildlife values

Thu, 9 Jul 2026 14:39:43

Social values shape biodiversity conservation success. Yet information is lacking on how values form, change and adapt people to their environment. Our 33-nation survey in 2021–2023 (n = 18,477) explored the effect of the institutions of European colonization on present-day values towards wildlife in the Americas. Here we found mutualism values (seeing wildlife as part of one’s social community) prevail in Iberian-origin Latin American countries, whereas domination values (seeing wildlife as a resource for human use) are more prevalent in British-origin North American countries. Multilevel analysis showed significant country-level effects of colonial institution (for example, colonial origin, Protestant versus Catholic religious cultures) and endowment (for example, pre-colonial population density, Indigenous ancestry, settler mortality) factors on wildlife values in the Americas. The strong mutualism emphasis in Latin America appears to be consistent with acculturation between the compatible ideologies of Indigenous peoples and the Iberian colonizers. The effectiveness of wildlife institutions and policies will depend on their congruence with the social values of publics being served.

Unraveling protracted modification of Archean and Paleoproterozoic crust in central Laurentia, Penokean orogen, with garnet and accessory mineral geochronology and microstructural analysis

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 14:31:45

Proterozoic metamorphism and deformation of the southern margin of the Superior craton in the Lake Superior region is attributed to the Penokean orogeny (1890−1830 Ma). This model includes a period of crustal inversion in which Archean basement blocks were exhumed through overlying Paleoproterozoic strata, producing the corridor of gneiss domes that parallels the trend of the Penokean orogen across the northern Midcontinent, USA. However, recent geologic mapping and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology challenge this interpretation, suggesting instead that the gneiss dome structures reflect younger episodes of tectonic activity along the southern margin of Laurentia. In absence of integrated pressure-temperature-time-deformation constraints for these rocks, interpretations are largely limited to their final cooling history, making it difficult to both identify the tectonic forces that shaped the architecture of the Penokean orogenic belt and assess the extent to which later Proterozoic tectonism modified the southern Superior craton. We address this problem with an approach joining thermodynamic modeling, garnet and accessory mineral geochronology, and microstructural analysis for several metamorphic rocks across the gneiss dome corridor. The U-Pb ages of titanite reveal that the Proterozoic geometries of exhumed basement gneiss domes are governed by preexisting Archean structures. Garnet Lu-Hf geochronology constrains the timing of prograde-to-peak metamorphism in the Penokean orogenic belt. Granulite facies metamorphism is related to the final stages of the Penokean orogeny at 1837 Ma and localized in a belt of high-grade rocks near a major Penokean suture. Garnet Lu-Hf ages of samples adjacent to gneiss domes reflect regional metamorphism following the accretionary phase of the Penokean orogeny, between 1825 Ma and 1782 Ma, which we suggest reflects continued crustal thickening related to convergence farther south during this time interval. Combination of garnet microstructures and Sm-Nd ages reflects later exhumation of gneiss domes and buried metasedimentary rocks by ca. 1750 Ma, consistent with previously published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar cooling ages across the region. Reset Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd garnet ages and U-Pb ages of syn-kinematic titanite reflect reactivation of primary Penokean structures during this period of basement uplift. These data document significant modification of the Penokean orogen and the Archean crust of the southern Superior province between 1800 Ma and 1700 Ma. Tectonic activity during this interval coincides with collisional events recognized in western Laurentia, suggesting that the period immediately following the Penokean orogeny may be a broadly important time for crustal growth and modification in proto-North America.

Melanoma and other melanistic lesions in brown bullhead Ameiurus nebulosus from waterbodies in the northeastern United States and Canada: Identification of risk factors

Thu, 4 Jun 2026 19:56:25

Melanistic lesions, including non-raised black areas due to proliferations of melanocytes and melanomacrophages in the dermis and epidermis, as well as raised black areas consistent with melanoma, are described in brown bullhead (BBH) Ameiurus nebulosus from three water bodies in the northeastern United States and Quebec, Canada. First observed in the Vermont portion of Lake Memphremagog, Vermont, USA and Quebec, Canada, the prevalence of melanistic lesions during 2014–2020 was greater than 30% in BBH 200 mm and longer. In 2023, seven sites throughout the lake were assessed, and prevalence ranged from 18% to 42%. In Hermon Pond, Maine, the prevalence was 29% in 2024, and in Village Pond, New Hampshire, lesions occurred in 22% of BBH in 2025. Compared to skin from visibly normal BBH, skin with melanistic lesions had significantly higher concentrations of seven metals, including arsenic, a known carcinogen and zinc. Lesions associated with oxidative damage, such as the accumulation of ceroid/lipofuscin, were also observed in the gill, spleen and kidney tissue of both affected and visibly normal BBH. The progression of lesions, observed by histopathology, ranged from inflammation, signs of oxidative damage, proliferation and necrosis of club cells, and the presence of melanomacrophages and melanocytes in the epidermis to invasive melanoma and suggests chronic exposure of BBH to environmental initiators and promoters of carcinogenesis.

Feathers and flu: Identifying data gaps in avian influenza host dynamics to prioritize wildlife conservation

Fri, 5 Jun 2026 14:16:52

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) have had disastrous, worldwide effects on wild birds and domestic poultry since the emergence of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD/96) lineage. The currently circulating H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has an expanded set of susceptible hosts, including many migratory wild birds, and is associated with higher transmission rates, increased susceptibility among wild bird hosts, and a greater number of wildlife reservoirs. Certain wild bird life-history strategies and behaviors have been suggested to explain avian hosts’ susceptibility and exposure to HPAIV. These biological traits include gregariousness, such as colonial nesting and mixed flock foraging, predation or scavenging on wild birds, and association with aquatic habitats. Variation in host infection responses (e.g., infectability, shedding rates and duration, mortality rate, antibody development) informs the overall infection risk across avian species, yet the specific role of biological traits is often inconsistent and unclear across taxa. Moreover, the interactions and potential compounding effects among these biological traits remain largely unknown. To develop a more holistic understanding of cumulative risk across bird species, we integrate existing information on infection risk factors (i.e., susceptibility, immunological response, and behavioral traits) into a qualitative multivariate analysis. This approach enabled us to examine how infection risk factors relate to biological traits (e.g., phylogeny, physiology, behavior, species range) and to begin disentangling their complex interactions. We quantified and summarized these risk factors across host species and qualitatively ranked species by their viral responses along a proposed HPAIV response continuum, guided by expectations of traits and metrics associated with competence or vulnerability to HPAIV. In doing so, we aimed to better understand how viral responses and biological traits synergistically interact to influence cumulative risk across wild bird species. This work broadly expands on the previous avian influenza literature, which has focused on Anseriformes and Charadriiformes as primary viral reservoirs. We tie our findings to effective disease management responses with links to risk components, including descriptions of potential surveillance strategies applied to research and One Health goals, as well as a fuller understanding of how resources may be better deployed for rapid response when spillovers do inevitably occur. Additionally, we identified numerous areas where vital epidemiological information is lacking to best characterize the spread of these viruses. Ultimately, this improved understanding will help identify and inform disease management needs and decision making.

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:02:38

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Advancing monitoring approaches to enhance tidal Chesapeake Bay habitat assessment for submerged aquatic vegetation, water clarity, chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:53:15

Water quality monitoring capacity has been declining for the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) at a time when information needs are growing, and data gaps exist to address critical decision-support for managers. The CBP Scientific Technical Assessment and Reporting Team is leading a Principal’s Staff Committee requested gap analyses toward understanding support needed to improve water quality monitoring and analysis programming. Advanced technologies and alternative monitoring approaches in the form of satellite-based measurements, Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms for data interpretation, continuous water quality in-situ sensor arrays, and community science efforts offer a growing portfolio of valuable opportunities for expanding data collections and analysis program capacities. However, since 1985, each of these options are examples of growing opportunities to enhance water quality assessments yet has seen limited adoption into elements of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring programs. Where new technologies have been adopted (e.g., shallow water continuous water quality monitoring), such temporally rich data streams have supported Bay health insights yet had limited use in regulatory water quality criteria assessment.

This Scientific Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) supported workshop provided the ideal forum for engaging our CBP partnership regarding the maturity of new and evolving monitoring and analysis capacities to address program information needs while appreciating limitations with adopting new tools and approaches. Improving natural resources monitoring efficiency and effectiveness will expand the scientific and technical foundations for making robust, strategic choices on decisions for CBP Partnership community-based priorities, policies, and management actions.

Workshop findings and recommendations reflect progress in science, technology, and analyses addressing long-standing programmatic limitations in data collection and analysis capacities. State-of-the-science updates highlighted in the workshop span the spectrum of efforts representing improvements, successes, remaining challenges toward operationalizing protocols, and guidance toward research, or adoption and implementation by monitoring programs.

Baseflow and snowmelt sustained streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2020

Mon, 18 May 2026 15:41:10

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) faces substantial water availability limitations. Although most streamflow originates as snowmelt, the partitioning of snowmelt between surface runoff and groundwater recharge and subsequent groundwater discharge to streams is highly uncertain. On average, over half of the streamflow in the UCRB is estimated to originate from groundwater discharge to streams, highlighting the importance of baseflow in sustaining surface water. However, the historical patterns of baseflow and streamflow, along with their variability over space and time and their specific sources, remain unknown at the basin scale. This study addresses those gaps by characterizing the sources and transport pathways of both baseflow and streamflow in the UCRB at a seasonal timestep from 1986 to 2020, including the lagged delivery of subsurface water to streams beyond the current season, using coupled models of baseflow and streamflow. Between 1986 and 2020, on average 63% of UCRB streamflow originated from baseflow. About half of this baseflow took longer than one season to reach streams, and outside the snowmelt season, baseflow was the dominant source of streamflow. Snowmelt was a key source of both baseflow and streamflow. Current season snowmelt contributed 33% of streamflow via runoff, and 22% of the 29% of streamflow that originated as current season baseflow via subsurface flow to streams. Over the study period, baseflow index (BFI) declined in headwaters and increased at mid-elevations. Springtime increases in BFI demonstrate the increasingly important role baseflow plays in water supply. Identifying the sources, locations, and timing of water that contributed to the UCRB outlet can inform management of water resources in the basin.

Quantifying southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) reactions to a quadcopter drone in central California

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 13:15:14

Drones are useful for wildlife research and management, but they can cause disturbance and harassment to wildlife. Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are candidates for drone-based observation and monitoring but are vulnerable to disturbance. No studies have evaluated drone effects on sea otter behavior, but based on prior disturbance studies, we hypothesized: (1) sea otters would exhibit behaviors indicating higher reactivity in the presence of drones than when drones were absent and (2) drone disturbance to sea otters would be greater when drones were closer. At two sites in Monterey Bay, CA, we conducted 37 observational sessions, recording behavior codes for focal sea otters during a baseline (no drone) period and three consecutive drone flights. Data were analyzed using ANOVA and ordinal logistic regression models. At both locations, focal sea otters had higher behavior codes during drone trials compared to baseline, and behavior codes increased with descending drone altitude. Pup presence, group size, flight trial number, and gull presence were significant covariables. We calculated multipliers to predict drone-mediated behavioral responses at a range of drone altitudes. Our findings can inform best practices for a variety of uses of drones around sea otters, including population monitoring, oil spill response, and drone photography/videography.

VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment

Mon, 18 May 2026 15:28:47

Study region

Continental Africa, encompassing diverse climatic zones—tropical, arid, and temperate—and spanning major transboundary river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Congo, Volta, and Zambezi River Basins. The region exhibits pronounced hydroclimatic gradients and heterogeneous land use systems ranging from rainfed croplands and rangelands to dense tropical forests and irrigated schemes.

Study focus

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a central component of the terrestrial water balance, governing the redistribution of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of ETa at continental scale is critical for hydrological monitoring, water resource management, and climate adaptation, as well as for quantifying water, energy, and carbon fluxes that underpin sustainable development. In this study, we applied the agro-hydrologic VegET v2 model to simulate a new, high-resolution, continental-scale ETa dataset for Africa (2000–2021). The model results were benchmarked against four widely used remote sensing-based products—MODIS16 v6.1, SSEBop v6.1, WaPOR v3, and GLEAM v4.1a—across major climate zones, land use types, and River Basins, providing a comprehensive multi-product evaluation of evapotranspiration dynamics across the continent.

New hydrological insights for the region

Validation against eddy covariance flux tower observations at eight representative sites confirmed that VegET v2 accurately reproduces the seasonal dynamics of observed ETa, achieving a correlation (r) of 0.8 and an RMSE of 25 mm month⁻¹ —accuracy that is comparable to or higher than accuracies of satellite-based products MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM. This study represents one of the first Africa-wide hydrological simulations of ETa, extending the VegET model beyond basin-scale applications. Intercomparisons reveal that VegET aligns closely with MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM in humid and tropical regions (r = 0.80–0.90; RMSE < 20 mm month⁻¹), while greater discrepancies appear in arid and semi-arid zones, where WaPOR tends to overestimate ETa (RMSE ≥ 28 mm month⁻¹). Despite these differences, VegET effectively captures spatial and temporal ETa variability across rainfed croplands, forests, and savannas, supporting its utility in regional water balance assessments, water accounting, and drought monitoring. A key application of VegET v2 is the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), derived by integrating VegET-based ETa with potential evapotranspiration (PET) to quantify water stress. ETDI successfully captured major drought episodes across Africa, including persistent Sahelian and southern African dry spells, the 2020–2021 winter drought in the Maghreb, and the 2018–2019 austral summer drought in southern Africa, while identifying positive anomalies over central Africa indicative of recurrent wetness. These results underscore VegET’s capability as a hydrologically consistent, operational tool for continental ETa monitoring and drought assessment, offering support for basin-scale water balance studies, food security planning, and climate resilience across Africa’s diverse hydrological environments.

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:41:22

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years.

Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr.

Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued.

Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

Wed, 27 May 2026 14:26:16

Earthquakes of magnitude (M) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by “barriers” that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.

Syn-magmatic subsidence during the early stages of continental rifting in the Mesoproterozoic—A reanalysis of legacy data for the Midcontinent Rift, western Lake Superior

Grauch, V.; Woodruff, Laurel; Heller, Samuel; Stewart, Esther — Fri, 29 May 2026 13:44:35

The Midcontinent Rift system (ca. 1.1 Ga) is a 2000-km-long series of elongated volcanic and sedimentary troughs and associated intrusive centers exposed chiefly in the Lake Superior region of North America. The rift system represents a long history of intense magmatism and subsequent sedimentation that was arrested by far-field tectonic events before sea-floor spreading was established. The premature cessation preserved a record of processes related to the beginning of continental rifting.

The rift system under Lake Superior has been long studied using seismic-reflection data collected as part of the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE). We reexamine GLIMPCE Line C by developing a detailed velocity model for time to depth conversion constrained by other legacy data. We corroborate the model and develop a geologic interpretation using gravity and magnetic modeling and ties to geology mapped onshore.

We recognize superposed subsiding sedimentary and volcanic basins for the southern half of the Line C depth section. This interpretation differs from previous paradigms that show major crustal faults that bound half-grabens or full grabens. We conclude that high-velocity (6.9 km/s) intrusive zones rather than major crustal faults border the sides of the basins. We speculate that the volcanic basin represents the initiation of seaward dipping reflectors.

The syn-magmatic subsidence can be explained by dike injection and volcanic loading. Discrete lava basins throughout the region likely subsided at different times in a disorganized manner along the rift trend, raising questions about the long-term role of lithospheric thinning and melt generation.

Practical guidance for engaging end-users and experts in developing scientific tools

Clements, Kaylin; English, James; Wilkins, Emily; Moore, Megan; Schuster, Rudy — Thu, 14 May 2026 14:21:59

This report provides actionable guidance for scientists developing scientific tools that inform on-the-ground decision making. Scientific tools, in the context of this report, are technology or protocols that help practitioners collect and analyze their own data, and information products and web tools that practitioners could use to inform decisions. Engaging end-users and fellow experts is fundamental to the creation of useful scientific tools. Scientists can use clear and specific direction on action steps and activities to effectively engage with end-users and fellow experts during development. Our study explores lessons learned from six U.S. Geological Survey projects that designed and implemented engagement activities with end-users and experts to coproduce scientific tools for natural resource managers. U.S. Geological Survey teams engaged end-users and experts across the United States from Federal, State, and local governments; universities; Tribes; territories; and nongovernmental organizations in designing and developing scientific tools intended to support end-users in their work. An online survey with 98 participants measured satisfaction across several indicators of successful engagement, including engagement activity frequency, sufficient opportunities to provide feedback, feedback implementation, inclusion of necessary perspectives, and functionality of the tool for end-users. Semistructured interviews were held with project leads, during which the project leads reviewed a summary of the survey results. The project leads reflected on the engagement efforts used in their project, then described lessons learned from the engagement experience and participant feedback. Common themes for ensuring effective engagement identified through thematic analysis included engaging end-users during product conceptualization; establishing clear roles and expectations; considering who end-users are and how end-users may use the tool; recruiting participants through your network, boundary spanners, and leadership; understanding individual use cases; communicating how feedback was integrated into the product; and strategically using virtual meeting tools. This guide shares practical steps and exercises for planning and facilitating effective engagement based on lessons learned from project leads and case study summaries of each project.

Timing, uncertainty, and opportunity cost: Lessons for ecosystem modification on the Colorado River

Mon, 18 May 2026 14:54:02

While conservation goals have long been pursued through traditional species-augmenting actions, a broader set of episodic ecosystem modification (EEM) actions, such as hydropower dam releases, prescribed fire, and beach nourishment, is garnering attention. EEM actions face several implementation challenges stemming from high opportunity costs, delayed effect mechanisms, reliance on monitoring for deployment timing, and outcome uncertainty due to infrequent use. In this paper, we study the use of EEM actions in the form of designer flows—ecologically-motivated releases of water into regulated river segments—to maintain a viable population of a threatened native fish species in the Colorado River. We demonstrate how the cost-effectiveness of EEM actions can be hampered by the complex and delayed effects on species viability, but enhanced through targeted monitoring for timing deployment and experimentation for reducing uncertainty about effectiveness.

Water table rise sustains carbon release from soils in wetland-dominated landscapes: An intact soil core study

Wed, 8 Jul 2026 14:52:42

Wetland-dominated landscapes influence carbon cycling through their potential to act as both carbon sinks and sources. Wetlands in low-relief landscapes have dynamic terrestrial-aquatic interfaces that change seasonally with variable surface water and groundwater levels. However, few studies have directly quantified dissolved organic matter (DOM) release and greenhouse gas (CO₂, CH₄) fluxes from wetland soils along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces as they are seasonally re-saturated by groundwater. To estimate groundwater-mediated soil DOM and gas fluxes, we performed laboratory simulations of vertical groundwater rise on intact soil cores collected from four Delmarva bay wetlands located in the Mid-Atlantic United States. At each wetland, one core was collected from within the wetland basin and the other from the transitional zone at the basin edge. Cores were re-saturated with groundwater over 15 days and then kept fully saturated for an additional 25 days. Source groundwater, soil porewater, and exfiltrated surface water samples were collected and analyzed for pH, ORP, DOM concentration, and DOM optical indices. In both the wetland and transition zone cores, porewater DOM concentrations increased over the wet up and were sustained during prolonged saturation. Optical indices shifted from recently produced, microbial-like signatures towards aromatic, terrestrial-like signatures. Fluxes of CO₂ decreased as the duration of soil saturation increased and soil cores switched from CH₄ sinks to sources upon full soil core saturation. Results indicate that groundwater rise sustains carbon mobilization from soils in wetland-dominated landscapes, emphasizing the need to understand how climate-driven changes to groundwater dynamics may affect carbon fluxes along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

Integrating mark-recapture, catch, and expert habitat assessments to quantify recent increases in humpback chub abundance over a 200 km long river segment of the Colorado River in western Grand Canyon

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:27:41

Humpback chub, Gila cypha, were historically distributed throughout large portions of the Colorado River basin and were federally listed in 1967. In the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, located below Glen Canyon Dam, chub abundances continued to decline through the early 2000s. Recently, catch has increased substantially, especially in the western Grand Canyon. Here, we integrate mark-recapture and catch data of subadult and adult humpback chub, with expert assessments of habitat suitability and an underlying model of spatial autocorrelation, to estimate abundance in western Grand Canyon from 2010 to 2024, a time of rapid population increase and expansion. Our model suggests that adult abundance grew ∼160 fold during this 15-year period, with a median adult population abundance of 70 000 (40 000–200 000; 95% credible interval) in 2024. Our approach identifies years with high population growth and indicates that the spatial distribution has changed over time. We test the sensitivity of our results to movement into sampling reaches during sampling with baited hoop nets. Despite rapid population growth, the resilience of humpback chub in western Grand Canyon is unknown.

Storm surge barriers reduce seaward sediment supply to lagoonal estuaries

Ralston, David; Orton, Philip; Warner, John C.; Kasaei, Shima — Thu, 14 May 2026 13:56:24

Numerical simulations with realistic forcing of fixed infrastructure for a proposed storm surge barrier for a lagoonal estuary, Jamaica Bay (New York, USA), are analyzed during typical forcing conditions to assess alterations to flow and sediment transport with the barrier open. Lagoonal estuaries are shallow and have modest watershed freshwater and sediment inputs, so sediment delivery is primarily from offshore by tidal transport. The storm surge barrier infrastructure across the inlet channel reduces cross-sectional area and increases tidal velocities, increasing frictional and form drag. The overall reduction in tidal amplitude is about 1%, but the quarterdiurnal M₄ component decreases by 11%. The salinity and stratification in the estuary are only slightly modified by mixing by stronger velocities near the barrier. Sediment transport in the inlet scales approximately with tidal velocity cubed and net landward transport is driven by flood-dominant tidal asymmetry. Additionally, tidal asymmetry in the jet flow through barrier openings causes a divergence in sediment transport within several kilometers. The alterations to the tidal currents reduce sediment import to the bay by 20% for fine sand; transport of sediment with slower settling velocities is less affected, with reductions of 3% for medium silt and <1% for fine silt. The study examined tidal exchange with an open barrier, but the overall impact also depends on barrier operations during major storm events. The impacts of barrier infrastructure on lagoonal estuaries are distinct from other estuary types due to their modest freshwater input, predominance of tidal transport, and offshore sediment supply.

Biocrust and seed placement influence emergence rates of perennial grass Elymus elymoides across five North American deserts

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 15:24:56

1. Dryland vascular plant emergence is often limited by water availability especially with projected climate and precipitation changes. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) can promote water retention and nutrient availability that benefit germination, and emergence yet can also act as a surface barrier preventing critical seed soil contact and hindering emergence. Alongside these factors, dryland fire frequency has increased with the inclusion of invasive species and vegetation structural changes. With enhanced continuous fine fuel distribution there is a high potential to disrupt biocrust-plant interactions and influence associated management actions.

2. This study explores the dynamic relationship between biocrusts and fire-related heating effects on seedling emergence across five North American deserts: the Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, Mojave Desert and Sonoran Desert. We conducted a greenhouse-based seedling emergence experiment using Elymus elymoides (bottlebrush squirreltail), a common perennial grass, with biocrust and bare soil mesocosms in which half were heated to mimic the effects of wildfire temperature.

3. The variables that had the greatest influence on germination rate and germination timing were the presence of biocrust and seed placement (on top of vs within the biocrust/soil matrix). Emergence rate was greatest atop bare soil followed by seeds inserted into biocrust. Emergence timing was faster with biocrust present, but only when seeds were inserted into it. Desert origin of biocrust and soil collection also influenced germination where the probability of any one seed emerging was highest in the Chihuahuan and Mojave desert sites relative to the Sonoran desert site which showed the lowest probability. Heating had mixed effects whereby it increased the likelihood of emergence but did not affect the overall rate or timing.

4. Synthesis and applications. This study underscores the importance of healthy and impaired biocrusts in dryland systems and suggests ways in which the combination of biocrust and seed placement can influence plant establishment, in addition to providing insight into seeding strategies for managers and restoration practitioners working in dryland sites.

Salinas Valley integrated hydrologic and reservoir operations models, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California

Fri, 15 May 2026 17:52:16

The area surrounding the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties of California is a highly productive agricultural area, contributes substantially to the local economy, and provides a substantial portion of vegetables and other agricultural commodities to the Nation. This region of California provides about half of the Nation’s lettuce, celery, broccoli, and spinach each year. Thus, this agricultural area provides substantial volumes of agricultural products not just for California but for the United States.

Changes in population and increased agricultural development, which includes a shift toward more water-intensive crops, and climate variability, have put increasing demand on both surface-water and groundwater resources in the valley. This situation has resulted in water management challenges in the Salinas Valley that generally relate to the distribution of the water supply throughout the basin. Where and when the water is present in the surface and subsurface does not coincide with where and when the water is needed. Historically, to deal with the distribution issue, water has been used conjunctively in the valley. Conjunctive use is a water management strategy that coordinates surface-water and groundwater use to maximize water availability. Groundwater is used throughout the Salinas Valley to meet water demands when surface-water supplies are insufficient. The availability of surface water is constrained by climate. Precipitation and streamflow vary seasonally and year to year. Although there are two reservoirs in the Salinas Valley to capture and store water during wet periods, the only conveyance of reservoir water to coastal agricultural areas is the Salinas River. Increasing demand for groundwater and surface-water resources throughout the Salinas Valley has resulted in undesirable effects from unsustainable water use, such as surface-water depletion, groundwater-level declines, storage depletion in the principal aquifers, and seawater intrusion. To address these escalating issues, local communities, water management agencies, and groundwater sustainability agencies are evaluating how to sustainably manage both their surface-water and groundwater resources. To meet water demands and reduce the undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, continued conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater would ideally incorporate strategies to deal with increases in demand and climate variability.

To evaluate the challenging water management issues in the Salinas Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, Monterey County Water Resources Agency, and the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency developed a comprehensive suite of models that represent the Salinas Valley hydrogeologic system called the Salinas Valley System Model. The geologic framework is known as the Salinas Valley Geologic Framework and was developed to characterize the subsurface using various topographic and geologic data sources, including information on hydrogeologic units, their surfaces and extents, geologic structures, lithology, and elevations from borehole data and cross sections, as well as details on faults and existing models. The surface-water model is called the Salinas Valley Watershed Model and simulates the Salinas River watershed. Monthly surface-water inflows into the integrated hydrologic model domain were simulated using the Salinas Valley Watershed Model. The historical model uses historical climate data, water and land use data, and reservoir releases to simulate agricultural operations, including landscape water demands, diversions, and reclaimed wastewater. The operational model adds an embedded reservoir operations framework to the simulation of the historical model that allows specified operational rules to simulate reservoir releases and changes in reservoir storage. The operational model assumes current reservoir operations and constant land use, which differs from historical conditions. Thus, the operational model is a hypothetical baseline model that can be used by local water managers to evaluate and quantify potential benefits of water supply projects. Together, the geologic framework, watershed, historical, and operational models form a tool that can be used to simulate irrigated agriculture and associated reservoir operations of the integrated hydrologic system of the Salinas Valley.

Toxicity of synergized permethrin residues in cattle dung to two temperate dung beetle species after application of common livestock pour-on treatment

Tue, 19 May 2026 15:19:53

Essential to pasture health, dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) provide key ecosystem services across natural and managed rangeland habitats. Insecticide residues in livestock dung can negatively impact dung beetle populations, and synergized pyrethroid products are commonly used to combat resistant pest fly populations. Here, permethrin residues were measured by GC-MS/MS in fresh cattle feces on Days −2 (pretreatment), 4, 8, 16, and 30 after the label rate application of a formulated pour-on treatment (a.i. 5% permethrin, 5% piperonyl butoxide [PBO]). Mean (± SE) measured permethrin concentrations were the highest on Day 4 at 1400 ± 360 ng of permethrin/g of dung (dry weight) with a maximum concentration of 2200 ng/g. Approximately, 99% of applied permethrin was excreted by Day 16, with no detection by Day 30. Field-collected dung was used in a 48-hour toxicity test and with three treatment groups (control [Day −2], low risk [Day 16], and high risk [Day 4]). Two temperate dung beetle species were tested: Onthophagus pennsylvanicus Harold and Canthon chalcites Haldeman. Mean (± SE) mortality of O. pennsylvanicus was 28 ± 5% and 58 ± 13% for low and high risk treatments, respectively. Mean (± SE) mortality of C. chalcites was lower than O. pennsylvanicus with 10 ± 4% and 40 ± 10% for low and high risk treatments, respectively. PBO was detected on Days 4 and 8, and the permethrin:PBO ratio was 10:1 on Day 4, i.e., high risk treatment. Data presented highlight episodic risks of pour-on products and support threshold-based, integrated pest management approaches.

Top Elevation of Glacial Till and Thickness of the Big Sioux Aquifer Delineated From Electrical Resistivity Tomography Surveys Near Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 2022 and 2025

Medler, Colton; Anderson, Todd — Fri, 15 May 2026 17:44:04

The City of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, requested the U.S. Geological Survey perform electrical resistivity surveys on three parcels of land north of the city. Electrical resistivity data were collected along a total of 22 transects during March 14–18, 2022, and November 17–21, 2025. Results from electrical resistivity surveys were used to delineate the top of glacial till deposits for the purpose of characterizing the Big Sioux aquifer near the city. Delineating geologic contacts provides important information on groundwater storage, flow dynamics, well design and placement, contaminant transport, groundwater–surface-water interactions, and regional water modeling. The top elevation of glacial till and the thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer varied among the three survey areas. The interpreted top elevation of glacial till in the North survey area decreases from east to west toward a slough, with elevations ranging from 1,403 to 1,418 feet (ft). The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the North survey area increased from east to west, with thicknesses ranging from 23 to 38 ft. The top elevation of glacial till in the Well 72 survey area generally decreases from northwest to southeast. Top elevations of the glacial till in the Well 72 survey area ranged from 1,400 to 1,409 ft along the southern end of transect W72_2. The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the Well 72 survey area was greatest along a southeast to northwest trending channel, with thicknesses ranging from 28 to 40 ft. The top elevation of glacial till in the Nose survey area generally decreases west toward the Big Sioux River. Top elevations of the glacial till in the Nose survey area ranged from 1,362 to 1,395 ft. The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the Nose survey area ranged from 33 to 70 ft.

Calcareous nannofossil assemblage changes in the Surprise Hill core and their implications for floral response to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum across the Salisbury Embayment of Virginia, USA

Tue, 19 May 2026 15:07:35

We present Paleocene-Eocene calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and paleoecology for the Surprise Hill core, U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain, Virginia. Calcareous nannofossil datums ranging from Zone NP3 to NP14 were identified. The Danian-aged Brightseat Formation rests unconformably atop the Lower Cretaceous Potomac Group at 211.4 m and disconformably underlies the Aquia Formation at 208.8 m. The absence of Zone NP7 suggests a hiatus is present in the Aquia Formation (Zones NP5 – NP9a). The contact between the Marlboro Clay and the overlying Nanjemoy Formation (Zones NP10 – NP14) at 189.5 m is truncated. The Paleocene-Eocene transition is marked by a shift from glauconitic sands of the Aquia Formation to pelitic muds of the Marlboro Clay at 202.7 m. A 3–3.5‰ negative δ¹³C excursion of benthic foraminifer and a thin dissolution interval (201.6–202.5 m) are recorded in the basal Marlboro Clay. Nannofossil response to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) include (1) a bloom in taxa with affinities for changing salinity conditions just prior to the PETM basin wide (Hornibrookina australis arca), (2) a decline in taxa with ecological affinities for cool, eutrophic waters (Chiasmolithus bidens) during PETM, (3) fluctuations in mesotrophic to eutrophic, opportunistic taxa (e.g., Neochiastozygus junctus) during PETM, (4) successive turnovers in species of Toweius spp. during core-PETM and its recovery. Our findings suggest that overall nannofossil assemblages in the southernmost portion of the Salisbury Embayment responded similarly to assemblages from South Dover Bridge, but had differing response to local changes in nearshore paleoecology.

Watershed Continuum Monitoring Approach: Combining multiple water quality patterns along stream and river flowpaths to track sources, pathways, and processing of pollutants

Wed, 13 May 2026 14:33:57

There is a growing need to improve and expand water quality monitoring approaches to more accurately track the sources, fate, and transport of multiple chemicals and pollutants holistically and quantify the effects of best management practices (BMPs) at the watershed scale. An overarching question raised by scientists, environmental managers, and the general public is: how far can water quality impacts from disturbances or benefits from watershed management and restoration propagate along stream and river flowpaths? Many studies using the classic watershed approach focus on analyzing changes in water quality over time at one or a few sampling stations, whereas theories such as the River Continuum Concept focus on predicting shifts in energy sources and biological communities along rivers but have not been directly applied to water quality. We propose to merge these concepts to create a Watershed Continuum Monitoring Approach (WCMA) that combines both spatial and temporal monitoring in order to better detect and quantify trends and transitions in multiple water quality indicators along flowpaths. Specifically, an array of multiple water quality indicators are analyzed at multiple downstream points along a watershed flowpath over time. These multiple water quality indicators are analyzed together for making comparisons to infer hydrological, biological, and geochemical processes controlling sources, transport, and attenuation of pollutants (e.g., analagous to stream tracer studies at the watershed scale). The WCMA leverages the natural expansion of watershed areas along a flowpath, which reflect transitions in land use, land cover, and environmental management across spatial and temporal dimensions for making direct comparisons across different stream reaches and spatial trend analysis. WCMA facilitates monitoring of multiple water quality indicators together, and identifcation of hot spots in sources and attenuation of pollutants or mixtures of pollutants. We illustrate practical applications of the WCMA to analyze water quality trends, transitions, and tradeoffs (i.e., a tradeoff occurs when one pollutant is reduced but another is directly or indirectly increased downstream). We explore case studies that quantify: (1) downstream reductions in concentrations of multiple pollutants along a stream flowing to a major drinking water source due to engineered and nature-based solutions, (2) downstream reductions in multiple pollutants and water quality tradeoffs along streams experiencing stormwater BMPs and stream restoration, (3) comparisons in downstream reductions of multiple pollutants and nutrient uptake along streams draining into major drinking water sources based on types of stream restoration, (4) comparisons of downstream pollutant reductions along streams experiencing riparian forest conservation vs. stream restoration, and (5) mapping and visualizing hot spots of increasing water quality problems such as hypoxia, contaminant mobilization, and freshwater salinization that extend downstream to tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay. We explore future applications of WCMA for tracking decreasing trends in salinity, E. coli, and other pollutants of emerging concern. WCMA can holistically inform progress towards achieving multiple water quality goals and also be used as a screening tool for selecting monitoring sites and targeting management in strategic locations. Overall, WCMA enables the simultaneous quantification and comparison of sources and transport and attenuation rates for different chemicals and pollutants across a broader range of watershed sizes and flowpath lengths, which is critical for understanding ecological, hydrological, geochemical, and biogeochemical processes along human-impacted streams and rivers.

Effects of wildfire on soil hydraulic properties in the western Oregon Cascades

Pimont, Cedric; Thaler, Evan; Ebel, Brian A.; Bladon, Kevin — Thu, 14 May 2026 13:32:52

Wildfires can substantially impact the hydrology of forested watersheds, increasing the risk of hydrologic hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. Soil hydraulic properties related to infiltration are a key control in determining the timing and magnitude of these hydrogeomorphic events. In our study, we collected 445 soil cores from burned (216 cores) and unburned (229 cores) reference catchments and analyzed them for soil hydraulic properties 10 months after the 2022 Cedar Creek Fire in Oregon, USA. We observed significantly greater field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_fs), sorptivity (S), and wetting front potential (Ψ_f) in burned soils relative to unburned soils, with median ratios of 5.7, 4.4, and 5.0, respectively. Among low-, moderate-, and high burn severity groups, soil hydraulic properties were not statistically different. Reductions in median soil bulk density with increasing burn severity suggested an expansion of pore sizes, which may have been partially responsible for increasing K_fs and S. Additionally, in some burned soil samples, the increase in soil hydraulic properties may have been partially related to a concurrent reduction in “natural background” water repellency that is characteristic of dry, unburned soils in the Western Cascades. We observed no evidence of spatial autocorrelation in K_fs using semivariogram analysis. Principal component analysis paired with a k-means cluster analysis suggested that soil physical properties explained variations in soil hydraulic properties better than landscape attributes. Although there is a lack of regional results for comparison, our results trend in the opposite direction from drier, lower net primary productivity regions that are typically studied for post-wildfire soil hydraulic properties.

PDCD-DAT: A global database of pyroclastic density current deposit field data

Tue, 7 Jul 2026 20:07:49

Pyroclastic density currents represent one of the deadliest hazards posed by active volcanoes. Analysis of their deposits provides valuable insights into their internal dynamics and informs numerical simulations of pyroclastic density currents which underpin many volcanic hazard assessments. We present PDCD-DAT, a global database of pyroclastic density current deposit characteristics compiled from peer-reviewed literature. The database includes both quantitative datasets (e.g., grain size, density, bedform dimensions, thickness) and qualitative descriptors (e.g., sedimentary structures, lithofacies). PDCD-DAT includes data from 85 source publications, covering 97 eruptions or eruptive phases, and 214 individual depositional units from 55 globally distributed volcanoes. Eruptions recorded in the database range from VEI 1–8. We highlight examples of potential applications of the database, which include (i) comparison of single deposit case studies to global datasets, (ii) informing input parameters and conditions for numerical and analogue models of pyroclastic density currents, (iii) validation of numerical and analogue models against a wide variety of natural case study deposit architectures, and (iv) estimating hazard impact metrics of pyroclastic density currents from past eruptions. We show that the database represents a useful tool for improving our ability to model pyroclastic density currents, predict their associated hazards, and understand the relationships between the internal dynamics of pyroclastic density currents and the properties of their deposits. PDCD-DAT is integrated with the FlowDat Mass Flow Database, which provides a sustainable platform for the database. We aim for PDCD-DAT to be expanded in the future through addition of pyroclastic density current deposit datasets from new field studies conducted by the volcanology research community.

Hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model of the panhandle and northwest parts of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in Oklahoma, 1998–2022

Mon, 11 May 2026 17:07:27

This study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, to update the hydrogeologic framework and conceptual flow model for the panhandle and northwest parts of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in Oklahoma, which together compose the Ogallala aquifer focus area. The study included the construction of a potentiometric surface, and available geologic and hydrologic data were used to evaluate saturated thickness of the aquifer. The water budget for the updated conceptual groundwater-flow model was based on estimated inflows and outflows for the 1998–2022 study period.

Saturated thickness of the Ogallala aquifer averaged 127 and 116 feet for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively. Groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer for 1998–2022 averaged 422,054 and 39,645 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively. Recharge, the primary inflow, was estimated at 0.63 inch per year for the 1998–2022 study period, with the panhandle part of the Ogallala aquifer receiving 175,068 acre-ft/yr and the northwest part of the Ogallala aquifer receiving 49,376 acre-ft/yr. Additional inflows included irrigation return flows, estimated at 8,111 and 642 acre-ft/yr for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively, of the Ogallala aquifer. Net lateral groundwater flows, considered to be aquifer outflows, were estimated to account for 31,908 acre-ft/yr for the Ogallala aquifer focus area. Streambed seepage, which was an outflow of 5,535 acre-ft/yr, was only present in the northwest part of the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical leakage and saturated-zone evapotranspiration were considered negligible outflows. These findings provide a revised conceptual groundwater-flow model water budget for the Ogallala aquifer focus area in Oklahoma.

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:47:26

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Quantitative mineral resource assessment of lithium pegmatite deposits in the southern Appalachian orogen

Mon, 18 May 2026 15:50:01

The first quantitative mineral resource assessment for undiscovered lithium pegmatite deposits in the southern Appalachian region of the United States was conducted. Permissive tracts for lithium pegmatite deposits were delineated by integrating lithological, tectonic, geochemical, geophysical and mineral occurrence data. Lithium pegmatite prospectivity of the tracts was ranked with simplified mappable criteria, including proximity to Paleozoic felsic intrusions and major lithotectonic structures, stream sediment geochemical anomalies, and pegmatite occurrence data. The geospatial data and permissive tracts were used to estimate the number of undiscovered lithium pegmatite deposits. These estimates were integrated into probabilistic simulations along with a new global lithium pegmatite grade and tonnage dataset to quantify potential contained undiscovered lithium resources. An economic filter was applied to convert the probabilistic estimates of contained lithium into recoverable material. The identified lithium pegmatite resources for the Carolina Lithium and Kings Mountain deposits, North Carolina, contain 1589 thousand tons (kt) of Li₂O. The median contained undiscovered resource for the southern Appalachian orogen was estimated to be 2240 kt Li₂O. At 90% confidence, the region contains at least 130 kt Li₂O, and 10,700 kt at 10% confidence. After applying economic filters, the median recoverable contained resource was 1430 kt Li₂O, corresponding to approximately 201 years of current lithium imports for consumption in the United States. North and South Carolina are likely to contain most of these resources. Coarse data resolution and intra-state variations in the geological data contribute to uncertainty of undiscovered lithium pegmatite resources. Continued efforts to harmonize disparate geospatial datasets with updated or new information can improve the accuracy and precision of estimated undiscovered lithium pegmatite resources in the study area and at broader scales.

Not so fatal attraction: Captive female Burmese Python lures do not improve wild python detection

Wed, 27 May 2026 15:06:17

The ongoing invasion of Python bivittatus (Burmese Python; henceforth, Python) across the Greater Everglades Ecosystem (GEE) has led to near total collapse of the affected mammal community over the past few decades. Management efforts to eliminate Pythons and control their spread have been hampered by the Python's low detectability, which may be improved by using a lure. In controlled settings, male Pythons show an attraction to the scent from reproductively active females. To test the effectiveness of using reproductively active female Pythons as a lure for attracting wild male Pythons in the field, we conducted a paired experiment with wild-caught female Pythons in pens and empty control pens. We monitored Python visitation at all sites using camera traps, which resulted in >3,000,000 photographs that we filtered to 4 independent detections of Pythons using AI software. Python detection was low at sites with female Pythons (3 observations) and control sites (1 observation) over 90 days at 12 sites. Stress associated with captivity may have halted reproductive females from producing pheromones, eliminating the chemosensory cue that lures males. Identifying and implementing husbandry techniques to reduce stress in wild-caught female Pythons could improve the effectiveness of this technique. Little is currently known about the chemical ecology of Pythons, and pheromonal communication in particular, and further research in this area could aid in the identification and production of effective, low-cost lures to increase detection and removal of this invasive species.

Accounting for emigration reveals high survival and bimodal size at departure from a loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) foraging area

Blommel, Caroline; Lamont, Margaret; Kendall, William — Wed, 20 May 2026 14:57:35

The life history of hard-shelled sea turtles includes several ontogenetic shifts in habitat use and these complex permanent emigration patterns can impact estimates of stage-specific population rates, including survival. We developed several multistate mark recapture models to estimate survival of adult and juvenile loggerhead turtles from a coastal bay in the northern Gulf of America (also commonly referred to as the Gulf of Mexico) while, in some cases, accounting for permanent emigration and transient individuals. Our mark-recapture dataset consisted of 228 individual turtles with 37 total recaptures from 2011 to 2024. Of the models we fit, those that incorporated emigration produced higher estimates for annual survival than models that did not, and higher estimates than what is commonly seen in the literature for loggerheads. All models suggested a major permanent emigration pulse at the typical size of sexual maturity (70 cm straight carapace length) and another major pulse at > 90 cm. This bimodal pattern of departure may reflect differences in size at sexual maturity among loggerheads, possible genetic variability within the assemblage, or both. To assess the models’ ability to effectively recover true parameter values, we developed a simulation study of 50 randomly generated independent data sets under our specified models of similar sample size to our study dataset. Simulation results suggested that models that accounted for permanent emigration and transient individuals produced relatively unbiased estimates of survival, while models that did not often underestimated survival rates. Mark-recapture studies that may exhibit emigration and suffer from low recapture rates would benefit from auxiliary data collection such as acoustic telemetry detections to better estimate true rates of emigration and survival. Obtaining unbiased estimates of true survival by accounting for processes like emigration can support effective conservation of endangered long-lived species like loggerheads.

Tropicalization of the temperate zone: Spatiotemporal variability of winter warming and declining freeze days across the United States

Brown, Vincent; Thompson, Derek; DeFee, Buren; Osland, Michael; Keim, Barry — Thu, 21 May 2026 14:35:32

We investigate changes in cool-season and winter daily minimum (T_min) and maximum (T_max) temperatures, and the occurrence of freeze days, from 1952 to 2024 across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Emphasis is placed on the tropical-temperate transition zone (TTTz) in the southeastern CONUS. During winter, ~70% of the land area exhibited T_min warming rates exceeding those of T_max. The countywide coldest T_min became milder across 57% of the CONUS, while the coldest T_max showed little change and even cooled east of the Rocky Mountains in the central CONUS. Across the TTTz, 75% of freeze days occur within a ~25–100-day window, often fewer than 75 days in the southernmost areas. Approximately 80% of counties exhibited significant contractions in freeze-day concentration, with the largest and most spatially consistent changes occurring in the Southeast, primarily driven by later start dates. Roughly 85% of the CONUS experienced a significant decline in freeze days, with the largest relative declines in regions where average winter T_min is above freezing, while parts of the Pacific Northwest showed no significant change. An analysis of freeze day isopleths (30, 45, 60 and 75 days) across 20-year periods showed that the mean latitude of freeze days has migrated poleward substantially. Between 101° W and 79° W in the TTTz, the 30 freeze-day isopleth for the late period (2005–2024) was, on average, 122 km (~1.1° latitude) farther north than in the early period (1952–1971). Generally, the largest latitudinal shifts and percentage losses in freeze days occurred across low-elevation, low-relief regions at lower latitudes (e.g., the Mississippi River Valley), with abrupt shifts occurring near topographic gradients. Regions with sharp elevational gradients (e.g., Balcones Escarpment, Ouachita Mountains and Tennessee Valley) exhibited smaller temporal changes, likely reflecting the barrier-like influence of higher terrain on the poleward retreat of freeze days.

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Russell, Aaron Daniel; Bair, Lucas; Meldrum, James; Hawbaker, Todd — Fri, 15 May 2026 13:16:54

Background

Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear.

Aims

This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts.

Methods

We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale.

Key results

RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input.

Conclusions

Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs.

Interpretations

Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

Patterns of floodplain forest mortality and recruitment along the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Associations with forest fragmentation and flood inundation

Wed, 13 May 2026 14:23:56

Context

Different rates of floodplain forest recruitment and mortality can reveal important changes in ecosystem processes that drive forest dynamics, resulting in net changes in forest cover, thereby influencing a wide range of river habitat and morphological characteristics.

Objectives

We evaluated characteristics of forest change areas in the Upper Mississippi River System.

Methods

An overlay technique was used to map patches of forest loss, gain, and persistence between 2010 and 2020 in relation to a series of explanatory variables.

Results

We quantified a net decline in forest cover ranging from 3.2 to 16.8% in the uppermost five study reaches, and a net increase in forest cover ranging from 0.5 to 4.6% in the southernmost three reaches. Patches of forest loss and persistence were similarly tall (> 15 m), dense (> 90% cover), silver maple (Acer saccharinum) dominated forests, whereas forest gain patches were short (< 15 m), less dense (< 66% cover) and more likely to be dominated by willow (Salix) species. Both forest loss and gain patches were smaller than forest persistence patches and were typically found in areas with low neighborhood forest density (< 50% forested 10 ha neighborhood). Areas that experienced more than three flood events per growing season, more than 100 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event, and more than 60 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020 showed a net loss of forest cover in all study reaches. In contrast, net increases in forest cover were restricted to areas that experienced less than a single flood event per growing season, less than 40 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event and less than 30 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020.

Conclusions

Forest mortality along these river reaches is associated with forest fragmentation and an increasingly wetter hydrological regime.

Temporal and spatial changes in seismic attenuation associated with inferred fluid migration in the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence

Thu, 14 May 2026 14:18:15

Prior work suggests that high‐frequency seismic attenuation acts as a highly sensitive proxy for crustal permeability and fluid mobility in fractured media. We test the hypothesis that the fault system responsible for the 2016–2017 Amatrice–Visso–Norcia–Capitignano sequence acted as an impermeable seal, compartmentalizing pressurized fluids until dynamic rupture triggered widespread fluid diffusion. By tracking across the sequence the spatiotemporal evolution of the S‐wave anelastic attenuation parameter, we identify large, positive low‐frequency attenuation anomalies emerging within the hanging wall following the Amatrice mainshock and strictly preceding subsequent large ruptures. Conversely, we observe weaker, negative anomalies in the footwall, anticorrelated in time with those of the hanging wall, revealing a massive asymmetry in fluid redistribution and permeability evolution across the fault system. Furthermore, aftershock migration rates reveal distinct linear alignments in a distance‐reduced time space, allowing us to explicitly track and quantify episodes of lateral and upward fluid migration. These physically consistent patterns suggest that stress‐driven fluid diffusion directly weakens adjacent fault patches, dictating the spatiotemporal migration of seismicity. We conclude that near‐real‐time monitoring of seismic attenuation may help detect fluid redistribution in active fault systems and may provide useful information for time‐dependent seismic hazard assessment.

Refinement of a framework for Moving Aircraft River Velocimetry (MARV) and application to particle tracking along Alaskan rivers

Legleiter, Carl; Kinzel, Paul; Laker, Mark; Conaway, Jeff — Tue, 12 May 2026 13:47:57

Information on river velocities enhances understanding flood hazards, evaluating habitat conditions, and predicting the transport of floating materials. In this follow-up study, we used data from two new sites, one with a more complex morphology and the other with a lower suspended sediment concentration, to provide further evidence that Moving Aircraft River Velocimetry (MARV) can yield accurate velocity estimates ( R² up to 0.87 when compared to field measurements) for long segments of large, turbid rivers. The MARV workflow is packaged in freely available software and is robust to implementation details; neither buffering to mitigate edge effects nor a new approach to aggregating velocity vectors improved performance. MARV was not sensitive to parameters used to establish overlapping image sequences, but combining a long window with a short jump between consecutive windows was the optimal configuration. Although accuracy varied from one cross section to the next, agreement between remotely sensed velocities and those measured in the field was independent of position within a frame range. As an initial step toward application of the approach to help address practical problems, we showed how MARV can drive particle tracking models. Our first-order simulations suggest that channel morphology and flow velocity are the primary controls on travel time and particle fate, with diffusive processes playing a lesser role. Although MARV can be used to characterize an instantaneous flow field, a more comprehensive framework that accounts for other physical processes would be required to model specific types of events like oil spills.

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Harte, Philip; Collins, Andrew — Mon, 11 May 2026 20:03:08

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction.

In 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed.

Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

Hydrogeology of the Tully Valley and characterization of mudboil activity, Onondaga County, New York

Kappel, William; Sherwood, Donald; Johnston, William — Tue, 9 Jun 2026 20:15:31

Mudboil activity in the Tully Valley, in central New York, is causing turbidity in nearby Onondaga Creek, where it has caused a bridge to collapse; it also has threatened or damaged other structures and has caused extensive land subsidence. Mudboil activity was intermittent from its first reported appearance in the 1890's until the 1970's, when the rates of mudboil discharge and land subsidence began to increase. Historically, the water discharged from mudboils was reported as fresh, but chemical analyses in the late 1970's indicated an increase in specific conductance and chloride concentration.

Mudboil discharge is driven by artesian pressure in unconsolidated sediments that are confined by a 60-foot layer of silt and red clay. This process, once begun, has been self-propagating. Artesian pressures are about 20 feet above land surface over most of the valley floor but exceed 30 feet above land surface along Onondaga Creek where Rattlesnake Gulf and Rainbow Creek enter the Tully Valley. The source of artesian pressure is recharge from the Tully (Valley Heads) Moraine at the south end of the valley, and the alluvial fans of Rattlesnake Gulf and Rainbow Creek. The mudboils are found within a 300-foot-wide by 1,500-foot-long corridor along Onondaga Creek just upstream from the two alluvial fans, and in a 5-acre subsided area just west of that corridor.

Remediation efforts have entailed (1) diversion of flow from the tributary that feeds the subsided area, (2) installation of depressurizing wells at several locations, and (3) construction of a dam and settling impoundment to detain mudboil sediment that would normally discharge to Onondaga Creek. These efforts have been partly successful, but further work is needed to slow the mudboil activity, which is expected to persist in both areas. Mudboil activity is normally greatest during the early spring and late fall, when artesian pressures increase in response to seasonal ground-water recharge.

Suspended-sediment concentrations at the out-flow of the subsidence area ranged from 31,210 mg/L (milligrams per liter) in October 1991 to 17 mg/L after remediation efforts in the summer of 1993. Yearly average suspended-sediment loads to Onondaga Creek from the subsidence area for water years 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995 were 29.8, 9.75, 1.41, and 1.80 tons per day, respectively. Sediment discharged from the mudboils initially was 30 to 60 percent clay and 80 to 100 percent silt-sized or smaller sediment, and the sand fraction never exceeded 20 percent. After the remediation projects, 50 to 80 percent was clay, and nearly all sediment was silt size or smaller.

Analyses of water from upstream and downstream of the subsidence area, as well as from mudboil vents within that area, indicate that the source of water for some mudboils is a confined freshwater aquifer, whereas for others it is an underlying, brackish-water aquifer. Water from the freshwater aquifer has specific conductance values ranging from about 400 (μS/cm (microsiemens per centimeter at 25° Celsius) to almost 900 (μS/cm, dissolved chloride concentrations range from 37 to 430 mg/L, and dissolved-solids concentrations range from 215 to 463 mg/L. Specific conductance of water from the brackish-water aquifer ranges from 17,000 to 28,000 (μS/cm, chloride concentrations range from 2,000 to 7,100 mg/L, and dissolved-solids concentrations range from 4,200 to 12,800 mg/L.

The largest landslide in New York State in the last 75 years occurred at the foot of Bare Mountain, 1 mile downstream from the mudboil area, in April 1993 and was the fourth in a series of slides that have occurred at the base of this hill. Slope instability was reported as early as May 1990. After the slide, intermittent mudboil-like activity was observed at several springs within the backscarp of the slide; water from these springs ranged from fresh to brackish. The chemical similarity between water from some springs in the backscarp area and water in the lower (brackish) aquifer beneath the mudboil area may indicate a hydraulic connection between this aquifer and the surficial deposits.

Hydrologic changes in the valley during the last 100 years have been attributed to salt-solution mining in the upstream (southern) end of the valley. The removal of nearly 150 feet of salt from four evaporite beds in the Syracuse Shale of the Salina Group has caused the collapse of bedrock and unconsolidated deposits in and near the brine field, 3 miles south of the mudboil area. These collapses have created a hydraulic connection among bedding plane aquifers in the bedrock and increased the hydraulic connection with unconsolidated aquifers. The ground-water flow system after brine field closure in 1988 may have reached a new semiequilibrium, but mudboil activity will likely continue because artesian pressures remain. Whether mudboils were present before salt solution-mining began is unknown.

Fluvial sediment data for Iowa—Suspended-sediment concentrations, loads and sizes; bed-material sizes; and reservoir siltation

Schuetz, Joel; Matthes, Wilbur — Mon, 8 Jun 2026 18:12:28

This report is a compilation of the fluvial sediment data collected and published by the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies for the State of Iowa. The compilation includes daily extremes, monthly summaries, particle-size analyses of suspended-sediment, particle-size analyses of bed materials at some daily suspended-sediment stations, suspended-sediment concentrations and loads for samples collected at periodic and miscellaneous sites, and reservoir sedimentation studies on streams.