USGS Publications Warehouse

Estimation, distribution, and development of a surrogate model for Escherichia Coli in the New River, New River Gorge National Park and Preserve, West Virginia, 2021–23

Kearns, Matthew; Chambers, Douglas — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:59:37

The New River Gorge National Park and Preserve in West Virginia receives more than 1 million visitors each year, many of whom come to enjoy the New River, which is known for its whitewater recreation. However, most of the tributaries within the New River Gorge are impaired by fecal-coliform bacteria, which are at concentrations that may exceed recreational-contact standards, posing a potential health risk to the public and, therefore, creating a need to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of fecal-coliform bacteria and to communicate this information to park visitors.

Concentrations of Escherichia coli, a species of fecal-coliform bacteria, were monitored in the New River and selected tributaries from October 2021 through September 2023, with emphasis placed on the primary recreational-contact season from May through October. Composite and cross-sectional water samples were taken from three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring locations: the New River at Highway 41 at Prince, West Virginia (USGS 03184905), New River at Thurmond, West Virginia (USGS 03185400; hereafter, Thurmond), and New River at Fayette, West Virginia (USGS 03186000). Periodic longitudinal transects included water samples collected below seven major tributaries of the New River within the gorge. Water-quality parameters, including water temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity, were recorded with each E. coli water sample.

During the 2 years of sampling, E. coli concentrations in samples collected from the New River ranged from less than 1 to 1,100 most probable number (MPN) per 100 milliliters (MPN/100 mL). The recreational-contact standard, which is based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 90th-percentile statistical threshold value for E. coli concentrations (320 MPN/100 mL), was exceeded in 11 of the 110 samples collected from the New River during this study. Water-quality parameter measurements and E. coli concentrations in collected samples were generally consistent among USGS monitoring locations throughout the New River Gorge; however, storm events created notable exceptions because they increased tributary streamflow and E. coli concentrations in samples, particularly at the New River below Piney Creek at McCreery, West Virginia (USGS 03185208), and New River Below Arbuckle Creek at Thurmond, West Virginia (USGS 03185440), monitoring locations. Escherichia coli concentrations of cross-sectional samples tended to be consistent across the New River, except for a few nearshore samples.

Sample E. coli concentrations and corresponding measurements of continuous water-quality parameters, streamflow, and precipitation data from Thurmond and the Piney Creek at Raleigh, West Virginia (USGS 03185000; tributary to the New River) monitoring locations were evaluated for use in a near-real-time E. coli surrogate model. The antecedent mean 24-hour turbidity at Thurmond was selected as the best variable for a simple linear regression surrogate model for the log₁₀ E. coli concentration in the New River and had an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.556 and a p-value of less than 0.001. The regression equation surrogate model suggests that the recreational-contact standard is exceeded when the antecedent mean 24-hour turbidity at Thurmond is 23.6 formazin nephelometric units or higher (with a 95-percent confidence interval of 19.4–30.7 formazin nephelometric units). Evaluated against a turbidity duration curve, this standard is exceeded 7.5 percent of the time at Thurmond. This surrogate model could help New River Gorge National Park and Preserve staff provide near-real-time information about E. coli concentrations and related recreational-contact risks to the public.

Development of projected depth-duration-frequency curves for precipitation in Florida, 2020–59 and 2050–89

Irizarry-Ortiz, Michelle — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 17:46:24

The planning, permitting, and design of stormwater-management projects require estimates of the depths of extreme precipitation for current and future events with specified durations and return periods. In this project, precipitation data from six downscaled climate datasets were used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89. The downscaled climate datasets are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 and include (1) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), (2) Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA), (3) Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), (4) Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting model (JupiterWRF), (5) LOCA version 2 (LOCA2), and (6) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from a historical to future period—were computed for grid cells containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods were developed to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from six downscaled climate datasets.

Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally being greater than 1 and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were found to range within 1.01–1.58 for 2020–59 and 1.01–1.63 for 2050–89, depending on the downscaled climate dataset, region, duration, and return period, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme-precipitation events. When data from all datasets are considered together, median change factors range within 1.04–1.18 for the period 2020–59 and within 1.04–1.23 for the period 2050–89, depending on the region, duration, and return period. Spatial patterns in median change factors were found to vary by dataset.

Remotely sensed surface water storage shows distinct patterns from SWAT-simulated data

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:29:25

Quantifying and projecting the downstream benefits of water stored in lakes and wetlands (SW_storage) requires watershed hydrologic models, which often parameterize surface water storage in topographic depressions using static digital elevation model (DEM) data. Calibration and validation of modeled SW_storage dynamics using external data sets is uncommon, particularly across major river basins, with model calibration typically focused on observed discharge. Here, we develop and assess a novel remote sensing-based (RS) SW_storage data set (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2) for verifying simulated SW_storage estimates from a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB; ∼440,000 km²). Our results suggest that static DEM-based parameterization as well as model calibration based solely on discharge do not adequately capture spatial and temporal SW_storage dynamics in the UMRB. Mean SW_storage as estimated by SWAT was 74% ± 122% (mean ± standard deviation) higher than RS SW_storage, where SW_storage in SWAT was underestimated in wetland-rich subbasins and overestimated in agricultural, tile-drained subbasins. Time series of SWAT SW_storage and RS SW_storage were positively correlated in only 38.8% of subbasins. As RS SW_storage is also vulnerable to error, storage estimates were compared to bathymetric data in select small wetlands. While uncertainty remains in the conversion from extent to storage for RS SW_storage, the method and data set presented here are a promising option for improved parameterization and calibration of SW_storage processes in SWAT and other process-based hydrologic models. Further consideration of these storage processes can potentially improve the accuracy of simulated streamflow in wetland-rich model domains.

High-resolution magnetic survey using an unoccupied aerial vehicle to constrain buried lava flow geometry, volume, and eruptive history of Little Cones, Crater Flat, Nevada

Mon, 8 Jun 2026 17:27:26

Magnetic surveys are an important tool used to augment geologic mapping in distributed volcanic fields. Using magnetic anomalies, it is possible to model the geometry of shallowly buried volcanic features, such as conduits, sills, and lava flows. This subsurface mapping is important for understanding eruption dynamics and emplacement of lava flows, and it sometimes reveals buried volcanoes no longer visible at the surface. These data are critical to better interpret the numbers, styles, and magnitudes of eruptions in distributed volcanic fields and their associated volcanic hazards. New advances in unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer an attractive middle range of resolution and aerial coverage between ground-based magnetic surveys and aeromagnetic surveys.

Here, we present the results of a UAV fluxgate magnetic survey of the Little Cones, Nevada, scoria cones, which have been the target of previous ground and aeromagnetic surveys. The magnetic anomalies at Little Cones are of interest because the surrounding alluvium conceals lava flows that erupted from Little Cones, making it very difficult to understand the volume and morphology of lava flows from geologic mapping alone. Nonlinear inversion of UAV-collected magnetic data were used to model the thickness and morphology of buried Little Cones’ lava flows with higher precision than achieved previously. The sequence of events and calculated flow characteristics are then interpreted. The total volume of Little Cones, including concealed lava flows, is approximately 0.016 cubic kilometer, and the initial sheet flow erupted in less than 24 hours. The findings presented herein demonstrate that UAV-based magnetic surveys are a reliable method of data collection and an efficient alternative to other survey methods, facilitating development of a three-dimensional perspective of distributed volcanic fields.

Global pegmatite-hosted lithium, cesium, and rubidium resources: A dataset for grade and tonnage modeling

Rosera, Joshua; McCaffrey, Dalton; Wintzer, Niki — Fri, 5 Jun 2026 13:59:55

Quantitative mineral resource assessments of potential undiscovered deposits can inform future mineral supply scenarios, but their accuracy is conditional on building robust grade and tonnage models of known deposits. This study presents an up-to-date global compilation and analysis of recently discovered and original, in-situ pegmatite-hosted Li, Cs, and Rb resources prior to historic production. Our analysis yields a median tonnage of 21.2 million tons (Mt) and grade of 1.12% Li₂O, respectively, for global Li pegmatite deposits (n = 73). The grades and tonnages of Li pegmatite resources vary depending on the age of the bedrock host domain, pegmatite crystallization age, and primary ore mineralogy. Lithium pegmatite resources hosted in Archean to transitional Archean-Paleoproterozoic domains have the largest median tonnage (29.8 Mt; n = 38), and those hosted in Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic domains have smaller median tonnages (6.5 Mt; n = 16). Cesium deposits where pollucite is the primary ore mineral have a bimodal grade distribution, with modes of 2.40 and 0.035 wt% Cs₂O for high- and low-grade deposits, respectively, while Rb deposits are more unimodal with a median grade of 0.247 wt% Rb₂O. Pegmatite-hosted Cs and Rb resources have median tonnages of 7.6 and 6.3 Mt, respectively. Covariation between ore mineralogy and the degree of crustal enrichment in pegmatite-hosted deposits is diagnostic of petrogenetic differences, including melt source characteristics, magma evolution, or variable degrees of volatile solubility. The Li pegmatite compilation is suitable for fitting robust numerical models to support quantitative assessments. More well-defined Rb and Cs pegmatite resources are required for quantitative assessments, but these data provide useful information about original in-place resources for framing supply discussions.

Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities

Murphy, Jennifer; Gorney, Rebecca; Lucas, Lisa; Zwart, Jacob; Graham, Jennifer — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:57:16

This systematic literature review critically examines 162 articles on harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in riverine systems to uncover persistent gaps, redefine critical challenges, and propose trackable opportunities to advance future modeling efforts. Articles largely focused on site-specific applications (93%) across more than 80 rivers worldwide. Most modeled systems were large, eutrophic rivers with flow modifications or obstructions. Geographic clustering of modeled systems was pronounced, with South Korea accounting for 26% of articles, followed by Europe (25%), United States (21%), and China (12%). Modeling approaches were led by process-based models (59%), though use of data-driven models (37%) increased over time, reflecting advances in computing and monitoring technology. Modeling endpoints varied widely across the articles with many focused on gross measures of algal abundance and fewer representing more refined endpoints like algal toxins or community composition. Furthermore, inconsistent units and taxonomic resolution hindered comparability between models. Datasets used for model development and calibration typically spanned 5 years, with weekly to monthly sampling at 1–10 sites, though durations and site counts were positively skewed. Quantitative metrics of model skill were often absent and included a diverse set of metrics when reported. Across all models, nutrients, light availability, streamflow, algal physiological processes, and water temperature emerged as key predictors, though algal processes were rarely incorporated in data-driven models. Scenario analyses primarily were conducted with process-based models and addressed flow management, whereas forecasting applications were less common and typically used data-driven models. After almost 50 years of riverine HAB modeling, persistent challenges include underrepresentation of benthic habitats, neglect of side-channel and backwater influences, insufficient documentation of river features, and weak linkages between modeled endpoints and potential harms. Addressing these gaps through reporting of contextual information, models from other aquatic settings, benchmark datasets, and community-driven tools could advance riverine HAB modeling towards increased transferability and ultimately operational forecasts.

Trends in subdaily to daily rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022

Fri, 5 Jun 2026 14:20:31

Changing rainfall patterns and intensifying rainfall extremes affect urban infrastructure and can increase flash-flood risk. Understanding how climate change has altered rainfall can support state and local agencies as they adapt and build resiliency. In this study, rainfall data from 23 weather stations in Florida were used to examine temporal and spatial trends over the period 1990–2022. Subdaily to daily rainfall events of durations 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h were examined. A variety of statistical methods were applied to examine annual and seasonal trends, including quantile regression, extreme value analysis, run theory using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen–Theil slope, and Poisson and negative binomial tests, and threshold exceedance rates using generalized additive models. Using subdaily rainfall data posed challenges, including equipment failures, limited documentation of the quality assurance and control process, and potential measurement interferences. Results indicated that over 1990–2022, there was a decrease in hourly rainfall extremes but an increase at moderate quantiles. Overall, the number of rainfall events increased, particularly at shorter durations, but the mean total rainfall per event decreased. Additionally, the annual number of daily rainfall extremes showed more decreases than increases.

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: A U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 13:56:20

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

Localization of spatiotemporally heterogeneous subsurface flows using autoencoder-based deep learning framework for time-lapse self-potential tomography

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 14:11:59

Self-potential (SP) monitoring has emerged as a valuable method for characterizing subsurface hydrogeological features and processes due to its sensitivity to fluid-induced electrokinetic effects. Despite advancements in SP inversion, challenges remain in imaging groundwater dynamics from SP activities due to complex hydrological settings and transient noise. In this study, a deep learning autoencoder (AE)-based framework is proposed for the spatiotemporal localization of subsurface fluid movement from time-lapse SP tomography. Temporal segments of time-lapse numerical inversions were first derived from long-term SP monitoring conducted from a floodplain site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, known for active hyporheic exchange. Subsequently, AE models based on vision transformer (ViT), convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM), convolutional neural network, and temporal convolutional network were individually trained and compared on the SP tomography segments for reconstruction performance. Finally, the reconstruction error over time serves as an anomaly score to identify moments of active SP variation, whereas spatial distributions of errors within these moments are analyzed to image and localize regions associated with anomalous subsurface fluid movement. The results demonstrate that ConvLSTM- and ViT-AE are most capable for the localization task with contrasting error distributions and consistent delineation of anomalies. Applying the method to both SP arrays parallel and perpendicular to the stream produced consistent anomaly zones near a fault or karst feature, validating the robustness and generalization of the approach. These results demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a scalable and interpretable tool for spatiotemporal analysis of subsurface flow dynamics in complex hydrogeological systems.

Improving offshore 3D splay fault geometries and slip histories using seismic data reprocessing and structural modeling

Ledeczi, Anna; Miller, Nathaniel; Tobin, Harold; Condit, Cailey — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:57:08

The goal of this project as written in the CRESCENT seed grant proposal was as follows: 1) reprocess selected profiles along strike from 45° to 48°N from the CASIE21 crustal-scale seismic data to obtain higher-resolution and higher-quality imaging of the uppermost 1-2 km of the accretionary wedge; 2) convert high-resolution USGS sparker seismic data from the time to depth domain to constrain near-surface fault geometries; 3) use kinematic modeling in the MOVE software to derive individual fault slip rates and per-event-displacements; and 4) work with the CFM group to create updated 3D models of identified faults based on the new data sources.

At this stage, we have begun the reprocessing of the CASIE21 seismic reflection data (Carbotte et al., 2023). The time-migration reprocessing of the CASIE21 dataset has improved imaging of the near-surface structure by incorporating usable frequencies up to ~220 Hz, in contrast to the ~50 Hz maximum usable content in the currently available pre-stack depth migrated (PSDM) profiles (Fig. 1C). An example of the image quality gained through reprocessing is shown in Fig. 1, where the dominant wavelength of each reflector is reduced to ~10 m (Fig. 1B) from ~20 m in the existing PSDM product (Fig. 1A). The reprocessing work is still currently in progress. While the imaging in the shallow section has been much improved, reprocessing below the first multiple is still needed to create a seamless image from the plate boundary to the surface.

Future water constraints on United States lithium mining under climate change

Trost, Jenna; Nassar, Nedal; Dunn, Jennifer — Fri, 5 Jun 2026 13:48:19

Lithium is necessary for low-carbon technologies that combat climate change, but lithium extraction is water-intensive. Changes in temperature and precipitation arising from climate change are altering water distribution, which could further strain supplies for new mines and industry, farms, and households. Here we explored how climate change, water use, and mining siting could impact lithium mining in the United States. We analyzed whether there would be sufficient water available to support the single existing and 22 proposed U.S. lithium mines at mid-century under four socioeconomic-climate scenarios and five climate models. Though dependent on socioeconomic-climate scenario, climate model, and lithium deposit type, available water supply in most subbasins would likely be unable to support new mines’ water demands, or even non-mining water demands from other sectors. Water scarcity could hinder the ability of the United States to produce enough lithium to meet domestic demand thereby necessitating higher imports.

Moment magnitude for small earthquakes in the Delaware basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico, USA

Gable, Sydney; Huang, Yihe; Shelly, David; Rubinstein, Justin — Tue, 2 Jun 2026 14:53:34

The Delaware Basin region of west Texas and southeast New Mexico has become one of the most prolific regions of seismic activity in the continental United States due to widespread hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal injection. In response to the increased number of earthquakes in this region, rapid and accurate characterization of earthquake sources is necessary to understand the evolution of seismic activity and level of seismic hazard associated with these earthquakes. This study re-evaluates earthquake magnitudes, estimating moment magnitude (MW) for small earthquakes in the Delaware Basin using 1) moment-rate spectra derived from S-wave coda envelopes, and 2) a relative magnitude method that relies exclusively on the ratio of waveform amplitudes between highly correlated waveform pairs. The coda-envelope method produces accurate M_W estimates for small earthquakes (M 1.5 – 3) that are consistent with independent, waveform modeled moment magnitudes for events with M_W > 3. Using the relative amplitudes method to extend these M_Wmagnitudes to many other events, we successfully provide relative moment magnitude (M_W,rel) values for 81% of the Texas Seismological Network catalog in the Delaware Basin region, and 45% of the USGS Induced Seismicity Project’s catalog of events in southeast New Mexico. The adoption and integration of the calibrated M_W,rel method with current magnitude estimation methods offers valuable insights into the relationships between local and moment magnitude and will contribute to improved characterization of widespread induced seismicity.

Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021

Tue, 26 May 2026 18:25:26

Longitudinal profiles of water surface and riverbed elevations capture key geomorphic characteristics that can be affected by water infrastructure and natural processes. Continuous water surface profiles of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a river influenced by two of the largest dams in the United States, have been measured infrequently. The water surface profile was first measured in 1923, 13 years before the completion of Hoover Dam, which impounded water into western Grand Canyon, and 40 years before the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, which affected streamflow and sediment supply for all of Grand Canyon. The water surface profile was next measured in 2000, 37 years after the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, although this profile did not include the segment affected by Hoover Dam. A continuous profile of riverbed elevations has never been published. Here, we present the first complete, coupled water surface and riverbed elevation profiles, collected in 2021 during a period of steady releases from Glen Canyon Dam. The profiles were constructed from positions and elevations measured by boat-based global navigation satellite systems and from bathymetry collected by multibeam sonar. Data collected by boat were supplemented by data from a photogrammetry-derived digital surface model that was created from concurrently collected aerial images. Independent measurements made by conventional total stations referenced to a common geodetic control network were used to evaluate accuracy of all measurements. The final water surface and riverbed elevation profiles improved the accuracy and precision reported for previous profiles. In this study, the mean absolute vertical accuracy of water surface elevations was 0.07 meter for 85 percent of river miles and 0.19 meter for 11 percent of river miles. For the remaining 4 percent of river miles, water surface elevations were interpolated between measured values. The profiles reported herein can be used for current assessment of Colorado River geomorphic conditions, quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.

From start to stop: Simple methods for mapping susceptibility to landslide runout and debris-flow inundation

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 14:17:21

Landslide runout and debris-flow inundation can disrupt areas well beyond their initial sources, causing widespread damage and extensive fatalities. Understanding where they start and how far they might travel is essential in many locations worldwide. However, most landslide susceptibility maps focus on initiation areas and fail to incorporate runout areas. Furthermore, hazards vary greatly with the degree of landslide mobility, and debris flows can grow as they travel beyond their initial source. Here, we use the USGS Grfin Tools software suite to map susceptible areas from start to stop in the Federated States of Micronesia where landslide and debris-flows runout onto gentle ground is a deadly threat. The DEM-based models in Grfin Tools use simple, empirical, and well-documented approaches that require minimal parameters and, thus, can be used in areas that lack detailed physical properties. We illustrate methods to estimate the required parameters using direct landslide observations, and we suggest alternate methods if direct observations are absent. Our simple parameter estimations in the Federated States of Micronesia successfully predict areas that match past landslide runout and debris-flow inundation, as well as zones with no inundation. In addition to creating preliminary regional assessments, Grfin Tools can be used for comparing multiple scenarios and/or identifying areas for further investigations.

Putting weight to work: A review and examples of weight-based indicators in freshwater fish stock assessment

Miranda, Leandro; Angulo-Valencia, Mirtha; Fraser, Camren — Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:17:19

Despite being a direct measure of biomass and central to fisheries management, weight-based metrics remain underutilized in freshwater fish stock assessment. Here, we present a concise review of the application of weight in evaluating freshwater fish populations. We examine the historical use of weighing, assess how weight is applied across subdisciplines of freshwater fish science, contrast weight- and length-based approaches, and identify biases in their application. We then synthesize weight-based metrics, indices, and models within four broad categories—population and community weight structure; condition, growth, and efficiency; reproductive potential and production; and yield and exploitation dynamics—highlighting approaches that inform fish ecology, population and community dynamics, and vital rates. We conclude by identifying key opportunities and methodological innovations needed to expand the effective use of weight-based metrics in freshwater fish conservation and management.

Biochar modulates the dynamics of legacy nutrients in enhancing soil health and crop productivity

Tue, 26 May 2026 14:24:39

Most major crops in agricultural soils exhibit relatively low nutrient use efficiency for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K), often necessitating supplemental nutrient inputs to achieve sustainable yields. Furthermore, the increasing use of biowastes such as compost, manure, and biosolids, which frequently have nutrient ratios that do not match crop requirements, has contributed to excessive nutrient inputs and subsequent accumulation in soils. This situation has been further exacerbated by intensive farming practices involving multiple cropping cycles per season. Overuse of nutrients causes them to accumulate in the soil, creating a legacy nutrient pool. The application of biochar as soil amendment is considered a potential strategy to control legacy nutrients dynamics. The current review inspects the possible value of biochar in modulating legacy nutrient reserves in the soil, thereby increasing the bioavailability of nutrients and improving crop yield. This review discusses the search scope and synthesis approaches for the bibliometric methodological component through rigorous screening process (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA)), focusing on journal articles published in last 20 years that specifically address legacy nutrient management. The significance of the economic and environmental effects of legacy nutrients and the insufficient knowledge of how biochar application influences nutrient dynamics in soil highlight the necessity for additional research to address current gaps.

Waves, watersheds, and sediment in a coral reef embayment: Towards parsimonious models of accumulation and composition

Biggs, Trent; Messina, Alex; Storlazzi, Curt — Wed, 27 May 2026 14:03:54

High sedimentation rates can damage coral reef ecosystems. Sedimentation rates are controlled by both sediment loads from watersheds and resuspension by waves and associated circulation patterns, but the outcomes are system specific and difficult to predict. The percent terrigenous (non-organic and non-carbonaceous) material in sediment is also often used as an indicator of watershed influence, but its dynamics are poorly understood. Sediment accumulation rates, particle size, and percent terrigenous were monitored quasi-monthly for one year (March 2014-April 2015) at nine sites in a coral reef-fringed embayment in American Samoa, where an aggregate quarry had increased sediment loads to the coast but mitigation reduced loads during the monitored period. Gross and net sediment accumulation rates were measured using sediment traps and SedPods (pods), respectively. Gross accumulation rates exceeded thresholds for impacts on coral health during at least one collection period at most sites, with more exceedances on the northern reef where water residence times and sediment availability are higher and corals show signs of sediment stress. Percent terrigenous of coarse sediment was higher in the traps and pods compared with the surrounding benthic sediment, indicating that some of the terrigenous sediment was advected through the bay without accumulating on the reef. The 95th percentile of hourly wave energy density (E₉₅) taken from a global wave model (WaveWatch 3) was the best predictor of gross accumulation rates of both total and carbonate sediment in a log-log regression at most (n = 6) sites (R² range 0.72-0.92), indicating a strong role of resuspension of benthic sediment. Gross accumulation rates of terrigenous sediment were not correlated with E₉₅ and only correlated with SSY at the site nearest the stream mouth, indicating that most terrigenous sediment was not from resuspended benthic material but rather from a consistent watershed source. Percent terrigenous decreased with increasing wave energy due to high accumulation rates of carbonates during periods of high wave energy. Detection of the impact of sediment mitigation at the quarry on sediment accumulation was complicated by low wave energy in the period following mitigation. The use of gross accumulation rates and percent terrigenous as indicators of the magnitude and sources of sediment accumulation over time needs to account for wave-induced resuspension, which can be modelled with a simple power function using inputs from a global wave model.

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

Fri, 29 May 2026 14:04:44

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi²), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi²) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi²) in the United States.

We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations.

Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections.

The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable.

The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community.

This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Patterns of rift basin development and the fidelity of the subsidence record: Insights through Bayesian modeling of rapid tectonic subsidence in a Rio Grande rift basin, Socorro, NM, U.S.A

Mon, 8 Jun 2026 15:15:42

Characterizing tectonic subsidence rates within depositional sequences provides direct insight into the driving mechanism(s) of accommodation in a basin. However, the temporal resolution of this record is often stymied by a lack of high-precision and high-resolution ages, which enable a more complete description of basin subsidence drivers. We explore the effect of high-precision and high-resolution ages in modeling accommodation for the Miocene La Jencia Basin of the central Rio Grande rift (RGR) and interpret driving mechanism behavior from these models (e.g., lithospheric thinning). We present a new geochronologic dataset of both laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) and chemical abrasion-isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) data and use these ages in Bayesian accommodation modeling. Models constrained by high-precision and high-accuracy TIMS ages yield peak tectonic subsidence rates exceeding 220 m/Myr, and an average Miocene subsidence of ∼120 m/Myr. While timing and magnitude vary, all models suggest two pulses of rapid Miocene tectonic subsidence, which we interpret to reflect basin-bounding fault movement. Prior to peak subsidence, there was an initial period of fault linkage and organization that occurred over <1–3 Myr that produced the basin-bounding La Jencia-Cerro Colorado fault zone. A comparison of published tectonic subsidence rates to those modeled here shows that while tectonic subsidence during continental rifting is highly variable, the La Jencia Basin rates appear relatively high. However, the significant difference between peak and average La Jencia Basin rates modeled here highlights the potential for underestimation of many records of tectonic subsidence due to a lack of high-precision and high-resolution age constraints. Furthermore, age data and modeling results presented here document fault movement and consequent rates of tectonic subsidence that lower-resolution data would not, providing a high-fidelity case study of continental rift basin development.

Indicators of mercury concentration in Lake Trout: Can fish location and appearance provide information to anglers to reduce their exposure?

Laske, Sarah; Young, Daniel; Bartz, Krista; von Biela, Vanessa; Carey, Michael — Tue, 2 Jun 2026 15:16:15

Objective

People are exposed to mercury (Hg) through the consumption of fish. State and federal governments provide broad, often-generalized food safety guidance to reduce exposure; however, numerous rural fishing areas lack testing and location- or species-specific guidance. The aim of this study was to provide tangible, visible, or easily measured characteristics of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush that could convey information on Hg exposure to people harvesting and consuming fish where no location-specific guidance exists.

Methods

We investigated potential indicators of Lake Trout total Hg (THg) concentrations in muscle across 10 lakes in Alaska's national parks. Potential indicators, including lake, lake zone (i.e., littoral, pelagic, profundal), fish length, head size, body condition, and general appearance, were evaluated by competing linear mixed-effects models.

Results

Lake Trout THg concentrations ranged widely from 22 to 1,306 ng/g wet weight. Much of the variation (48%) in THg concentrations was attributed to differences among individual lakes, but the interaction of the fish's lake zone, body length, and head size accounted for an additional 21%. Predicted THg concentrations increased with Lake Trout length and head : body proportion, but the rate of THg concentration increase with length varied by head : body proportion and lake zone.

Conclusions

Given the overwhelming evidence of high lake-to-lake variability in Lake Trout THg concentrations, we find support for use of lake-specific guidance when data are available. When lake-specific THg concentrations are not available, the best potential way to reduce exposure is to harvest and consume Lake Trout with mean predicted THg concentrations that are within state and federal safe consumption guidelines. This included Lake Trout from surface waters (i.e., pelagic or littoral zone) that are ≤70 cm in length; if harvesting fish from deep waters (i.e., profundal zone), lower THg concentrations were found in Lake Trout with heads ≤25% of their body length. The indicators—lake zone, length, and head size—of Lake Trout THg concentrations can provide harvesters with additional information in the absence of data for specific lakes.

Ecology of reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep in Dinosaur National Monument

Wed, 27 May 2026 14:33:30

Translocations have been widely used to restore and conserve bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations in North America. Some translocations have been successful, but many populations remain small and genetically isolated. Population structure can influence the viability and long-term success of reintroductions. Social ungulates often function as interconnected subpopulations (metapopulations); however, few studies evaluate subpopulation sizes, connectivity, and genetic diversity within metapopulations. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive study of a reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis) population in Dinosaur National Monument in Colorado and Utah, USA, between 2006–2020. We analyzed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collar data, genetic samples, and results of health testing to evaluate abundance, distribution, genetic structure and diversity, habitat use, movement and connectivity, and presence of or exposure to respiratory pathogens. We integrated these analyses to evaluate the outcomes of a reintroduction effort that began in 1952, over 70 years ago, and to inform management decisions in Dinosaur National Monument. We also provide a framework for evaluating metapopulation processes, including a non-invasive approach that links genetic structure with Bayesian spatial capture-recapture analyses to estimate subpopulation sizes. Despite models indicating continuous suitable habitat, we found a spatially structured population with at least 4 subpopulations with constrained connectivity. Evidence from step selection and density analyses suggested that movement among subpopulations may be limited by semi-permeable barriers including rivers and human disturbance, which could contribute to maintenance of spatial structure over time. In 2006, antibody to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae was detected in all geographically and genetically distinct subpopulations. Widespread clinical signs of disease and a confirmed exposure to M. ovipneumoniae in 2019 indicate a long-term disease challenge. Proximity to domestic sheep creates repeated opportunities for introduction of new M. ovipneumoniae strains. We estimated abundance in 2019 at 109 (95% CrI = 87–133), composed of subpopulations ranging from 18–39 animals (95% CrIs from 11–50). Genetic diversity was relatively high compared to other reintroduced and native Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep populations, which is likely a consequence of multiple translocations from different sources. Three of 4 subpopulation centers generally aligned with the locations of original translocation release sites. Persistence in the presence of pathogens may be facilitated by metapopulation structure and moderately high genetic diversity. Conversely, metapopulation structure can also facilitate pathogen persistence. Our approach offers a path to advance understanding of the population ecology of reintroduced bighorn sheep and can inform effective conservation and management of their populations.

Modeling the seasonality of wind-driven hydrocarbon waves in Titan’s polar lakes

Wed, 27 May 2026 13:31:02

Titan, the only body in the solar system aside from Earth with standing liquids on its surface, has polar hydrocarbon lakes and seas. As Titan’s atmosphere generates light winds, there should be waves on the surface of these lakes and seas, yet, direct wave observations are scant. We introduce and use PlanetWaves, an open source 4D spectral wave model, to study Titan’s waves and create seasonal maps of wave shape and propagation on Ontario Lacus and Ligeia Mare. Titan’s modeled waves grow up to 30 times larger than terrestrial waves for the same wind speed, are seasonally present and are largest in the spring and summer when winds are strongest. Average daily winds almost never exceed the wave generation threshold of 0.5–0.7 m/s. Average storm winds (∼1.5 m/s) generate waves 15–48 cm in height with a period ranging 6–10.5 s while maximum storm winds (∼4 m/s) generate waves 2.7–3.2 m in height with a period up to 32 s. Titan’s waves become fetch-independent at ∼40 km for average storm winds occurring ∼1% of a Titan year and ∼100 kilometers for maximum storm winds occurring 2-3 times per Titan decade. On Ontario Lacus, storm winds blow nearly parallel to the eastern shore, potentially driving wave modification of the smooth eastern shoreline. On Ligeia Mare, waves rarely propagate toward a hypothesized wave modified shoreline suggesting that another process, such as tectonics, may contribute to a straight shoreline morphology.

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition—Working collaboratively to understand the geology of the Great Lakes Region

Lopez, Brianna; Shelton, Jenna; Marketti, Michael; Ritzel, Kate; Graham, Brandon — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:37:48

Introduction

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition (GLGMC), commonly referred to as the “Coalition,” is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of Ontario. The member States receive funding for geologic mapping work from the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP), whereas Ontario participates as a nonfunded partner. The mission of the GLGMC is to produce three-dimensional (3D) geologic maps that depict unconsolidated sediments and near-surface bedrock in the Great Lakes region of North America. Geologic maps are the basis of most earth science investigations and help support resource exploration (energy, minerals, groundwater), natural hazard mitigation, infrastructure development, and land-use planning, all of which can be used to advance economic development and strengthen national security in the Great Lakes region.

During the last few million years, the Great Lakes region has experienced repeated glacial advances and retreats, leaving behind extensive sediments, abundant natural resources, and widespread effects on the underlying bedrock geology (Swezey and others, 2022). Linked by shared histories of past glaciations, industrial agriculture, and legacy automotive, coal, steel, and manufacturing industries, the GLGMC member States collaborate to improve the understanding of the 3D distribution of the sediments overlying the region’s bedrock (fig. 1). Developing a comprehensive subsurface 3D framework of this glaciated terrain can provide earth science data to policymakers at all levels. These insights facilitate informed decisions on the exploration, use, and protection of vital resources, such as critical minerals, industrial materials, and aquifers, thereby supporting economic prosperity and the well-being of the citizens of this region.

Since its inception in 1998, the Coalition has completed more than 100 geologic mapping projects across the Great Lakes region. Each project aims to deliver geologic maps, 3D datasets, and other information that improves understanding of the geology of the Great Lakes region, with an emphasis on economic and water resources. Key deliverables include 3D geologic maps and models typically portraying sediment thickness, often derived from top-of-bedrock and borehole data. These products are developed through a combination of fieldwork, subsurface modeling, and the collection and analysis of rock and sediment cores.

To support Coalition goals, member States collaborate with scientists working on related STATEMAP, EDMAP, and FEDMAP projects. Coalition scientists also engage with Tribal Nations in the Great Lakes region to ensure that Tribal interests pertaining to Coalition work are addressed. Through this collaboration, the Coalition unites the efforts of State, Federal, and Tribal Nation stakeholders to advance geologic data production and enhance understanding of the geologic resources of the Great Lakes region.

Factors affecting benthic macroinvertebrate health in the City of Roanoke, Virginia, 2020–2023

Miller, Samuel; Aguilar, Marcus; Helsley, Logan; Entrekin, Sally — Fri, 29 May 2026 14:23:57

Major waterways in the City of Roanoke (City) have failed to meet Virginia’s aquatic life designated use since 1996. Segments of the upper Roanoke River lack healthy benthic macroinvertebrate communities which prompted a total maximum daily load (TMDL) study by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) to identify the most probable stressor(s) causing the impairment. Excess fine sediment was identified as the most probable stressor impairing benthic macroinvertebrates on portions of the Roanoke River in 2006, and a watershed implementation plan published in 2016 required communities within the impaired watershed to implement projects that would reduce the load of fine sediment entering the Roanoke River. Additional benthic macroinvertebrate sampling and stream habitat assessments along the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek (a tributary to the Roanoke River that flows through the City) revealed continued impaired conditions, and subsequent stressor identification analysis was completed in 2023. Samples collected downstream of the City on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek generally showed more impaired conditions relative to samples collected at locations upstream of the City. Based on this evaluation, sediment and sediment-bound polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were identified as probable stressors while specific conductance, total nitrogen, and sediment metals were possible stressors in Tinker Creek; however, only a sediment TMDL target was identified to address impaired benthic macroinvertebrate communities. In the Roanoke River upstream of the Niagara Dam, sediment and total phosphorus were identified as probable stressors, sediment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and sediment PCB were considered possible stressors; however, the TMDL target was only for total phosphorus.

The City partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2016 to continuously monitor water quality and streamflow conditions on a major tributary of Tinker Creek, Lick Run, and by 2020, four similar monitoring stations were installed on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek near the locations of benthic macroinvertebrate sampling. Monitored parameters included streamflow and/or gage height (water level), water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and turbidity. Turbidity is a measure of the relative clarity of the water and was previously used to model suspended-sediment concentrations at the monitoring stations. The City also contracted Kirk Environmental, LLP (KE) to collect benthic macroinvertebrate samples and stream habitat assessments near the locations of the water-quality monitoring stations. Identified benthic macroinvertebrates were used to calculate the Virginia Stream Condition Index (SCI), a multi-metric index composed of eight biological attributes that represent elements of the structure and function of the benthic macroinvertebrate community that measure diversity, composition, and tolerance to pollution.

Study objective: In this report, benthic macroinvertebrate samples and stream habitat assessment scores collected at four locations on the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek by KE and the VDEQ between 2020 and 2023 were compared to measured water-quality and streamflow conditions prior to sampling to evaluate patterns between benthic macroinvertebrate health, water quality, and hydrology.

Patterns of recent brook trout invasion in bull trout streams in relation to habitat, source connectivity, biotic resistance, and disturbance

Voss, Nicholas; Bowersox, Brett; Nolfi, Daniel; Quist, Michael C. — Tue, 9 Jun 2026 14:49:51

Anticipating biological invasions by nonnative species is critical to effective conservation. Nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis represents one of the most widespread threats to native bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the factors allowing or preventing ongoing range expansions are poorly understood. We addressed this uncertainty by resampling 221 survey locations in bull trout streams in Idaho and relating shifts in brook trout occupancy to four controls on biological invasion (habitat suitability, source connectivity, disturbance, and biotic resistance to invasion). Brook trout detections increased substantially between the historical period (58 sites) and contemporary period (94 sites). Site colonizations were positively associated with water temperature and negatively associated with landscape resistance metrics (i.e., highest streamflow and gradient between a site and the nearest source) in all top models. In contrast, there was weak support for a positive association with wildfire and limited support for hydrologic distance and biotic resistance metrics. Brook trout invasions in bull trout habitat are ongoing, limited by cold temperatures, and highly influenced by dispersal barriers that may not inhibit more mobile native salmonids.

Methodology for construction of a three-layer geologic model of the conterminous United States using land surface, top of bedrock, and top of basement

Sweetkind, Donald S. — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:39:21

This report describes the methodology used for the construction of a digital three-layer geologic model of the conterminous United States by mapping the altitude of three surfaces: land surface, the top of bedrock, and the top of basement. These surfaces are mapped through the compilation and synthesis of published stratigraphic horizons from numerous topical studies. The mapped surfaces create a three-layer geologic model with three geomaterial-based subdivisions: unconsolidated to weakly consolidated sediment; layered consolidated rock strata that constitute bedrock; and crystalline rocks that are described as “basement,” consisting of either igneous, metamorphic, or highly deformed rocks. The data compilation and synthesis are highly dependent on the definition of the informal terms “bedrock” and “basement,” which may describe different ages or types of rock in different parts of the conterminous United States. This report presents the conceptualization of the three mapped layers, describes the datasets used, and summarizes the decisions made while compiling the three-layer model from the various sources. This digital dataset was created as part of efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey to develop subsurface geologic data in geospatial form as part of a broad directive to develop two-dimensional and three-dimensional geologic information at detailed, national, and continental scales. This digital dataset partly fulfills the goal of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program to construct a national-scale three-dimensional geologic model.

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin domestic-supply aquifer study unit, 2022—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Harkness, Jennifer; Faulkner, Kirsten; Jurgens, Bryant — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:49:39

The quality of water accessed by domestic wells (here referred to as domestic groundwater resources) in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin (basin number 5-022.14) was assessed as part of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP), in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. Kern County is at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley in California, and about 30,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells for drinking water. Domestic wells typically draw from shallower parts of the aquifer system than public-supply wells and can be more vulnerable to effects from surface activities. Kern County is host to a highly productive agricultural industry, with Bakersfield as the main urban center. The Kern River runs through Bakersfield from the southern Sierra Nevada and intersects the Kern Water Bank, one of the largest groundwater banking operations in California, at the Kern River Intertie. The section of the Kern River running through the Kern Water Bank is dry most years. Kern County also encompasses some of the most productive oil and gas basins in California, with extensive underground and surface disposal of oil-field wastewater.

This study was based on data collected from 33 sites sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA-PBP in 2022. To provide context for the water quality assessment, measured concentrations were compared to regulatory and non-regulatory health-based and aesthetic benchmarks. A grid-based method was used to estimate the proportions of the groundwater resources used for domestic-supply wells that have water-quality constituents below (low relative concentration), approaching (moderate relative concentration), or above (high relative concentration) benchmark concentrations. At least one measured constituent with a regulatory benchmark was categorized as having a high relative concentration in 72 percent of the aquifer area used for domestic groundwater resources. Inorganic constituents were detected at high concentrations in 45 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents detected above regulatory benchmarks were arsenic, nitrate, and uranium. At least one organic constituent was detected at high concentrations in 41 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents exceeding regulatory benchmarks were the fumigants 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP), 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (dibromochloropropane [DBCP]), 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB), and the per-and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) perfluorooctanesulfonate. The disinfection by-product chloroform, the fumigant 1,2-dichloropropane, the herbicides atrazine and hexazinone, and the herbicide degradates 2-chloro-6-ethylamino-4-amino-s-triazine, 2-chloro-4,6-diamino-s-triazine, 4-hydroxychlorothalonil, and metolachlor sulfonic acid were detected in more than 10 percent of domestic groundwater resources, but concentrations did not exceed regulatory benchmarks.

Land use, groundwater age (fraction of modern water and mean age), and geochemical environment (oxic or anoxic conditions, pH, alkalinity) were associated with the distribution of high relative concentrations of inorganic and organic constituents. Young, oxygenated water is recharged along the Kern River and adjacent recharge ponds, or as irrigation water in the agricultural areas. High concentrations of nitrate and volatile organic compounds occurred in the oxic water in urban and agricultural areas. The fumigants 1,2,3-TCP, DBCP, and EDB were reported throughout the agricultural areas, whereas chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and PFAS were associated with urban land use. High uranium concentrations were associated with young, modern groundwater in agricultural areas with low pH and high bicarbonate. Total dissolved solids increased with distance from the Kern River, as the contributions of fresh, oxic water decreased. High concentrations of arsenic were present in older anoxic or alkaline groundwater away from areas of recharge. Overall, groundwater age, redox conditions, and the source of recharge as a result of different land uses contribute to large aquifer-scale portions of domestic groundwater resources that exceed health-based benchmarks for nitrate, uranium, and fumigant concentrations.

Precipitation-based flood-inundation maps for the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries at Lee’s Summit, Missouri, 2024

Atkinson, Allison — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:19:14

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, assessed flooding of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries for varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, varying antecedent runoff conditions, and projected climate-change conditions. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps for a 2.95-mile reach of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries within the city.

A two-dimensional U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; ver. 6.5) rain-on-grid model was calibrated to selected runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. Lowest adjacent grades for structures within the nearby study area were incorporated into the terrain, and depth grids and water-surface elevation grids were developed for the study area. Simulated velocities at selected bridge locations were also developed from the model. The model was calibrated using water-surface elevation data collected from water-level loggers (pressure transducers) and streamflow measurements and water-surface elevation measurements made at a reference point during runoff events. The calibrated HEC–RAS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 15-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability (1-year to 1,000-year recurrence intervals). Flood-inundation maps were produced for depths at a reference location of 3 to 16 feet, or a depth exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 1-foot-increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location.

Within the HEC–RAS model, 240 scenarios were developed from the design rainfall events with each of 3 antecedent conditions. Additional scenarios were created to simulate the effects of projected precipitation scenarios on the 100-year recurrence interval, 24-hour storm and the 100-year recurrence interval, 6-hour storm. All simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location.

The flood-inundation maps are shown on a web mapping application made available to the public through the City of Lee’s Summit (hyperlink will be added when available). The flood-inundation maps are tied to real-time precipitation data obtained from the Automated Surface Observing System weather station at the Lee’s Summit Municipal Airport, accessible at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MO_ASOS. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding observed rainfall, could help provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and for postflood recovery efforts.

Remote sensing enables basin-scale inventories of coal mine methane

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 16:30:40

Underground coal mines are important global sources of methane, but emission estimates are uncertain. We show that emission estimates for individual mines from aircraft remote-sensing surveys in the United States agree within 40% with direct measurements used for national emission reporting (IPCC Tier 3 estimate). Such direct measurements are unavailable in most countries, which rely on estimated emission factors (EFs) applied to coal-production rates. We find that EFs from IPCC Tier 1 and the Model for Calculating Coal Mine Methane (MC2M) methods overestimate U.S. emissions 3-fold due to incorrect dependence on mine depth. An IPCC Tier 2 method using measured basin-specific mine gas content agrees with direct emission measurements but does not account for gob well emissions and requires gas content data that are generally unavailable. We show that aircraft remote sensing for a small sample of mines can successfully estimate basin-specific EFs for ventilation shafts and gob wells, enabling estimates of basin- and national-scale emissions. We discuss how the method can be applied with satellite remote sensing to quantify coal emissions worldwide.

Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs) from separate breeding sites subdivides the Prairie Pothole Region in space and time during southbound migration

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 15:08:54

Some staging regions support multiple groups of the same migratory species, each of which may use the region differently. Characterizing the ways, in which separate groups use such regions can therefore help to identify vulnerabilities during this sensitive period of the annual cycle. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a massive wetland complex in the northern Great Plains of North America used by ∼11 million shorebirds during migration. The PPR has been heavily modified by agriculture and is experiencing varied effects of global climate change, threatening the health of the shorebirds that rely on it. Here, we used 6 seasons of southbound tracking data of Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs)—a long-distance migratory shorebird species with an estimated population decline of 63% over the last 4 decades—from 9 sites across their breeding range to explore differences in migratory behavior within this important staging region. We found that 75% of tracked individuals used the region during southbound migration, and T. flavipes from different breeding sites detoured 110–875 km from their most direct migratory route to access the PPR. Individuals that arrived later stayed longer and made more stops within the region than those that arrived early. Individuals originating from different breeding sites also displayed spatial and temporal segregation within the region: T. flavipes from southwest and central Alaska relied heavily on the northwestern PPR, while those from Canada used the central and southeastern portions of the PPR. Finally, timing of use varied among groups, but the southeastern PPR became increasingly important over the course of the southbound migratory window, as other wetlands likely dried out. Our study highlights the portions of the PPR of critical importance to migrating T. flavipes and the diversity of ways, in which different groups from within the same species can use a single staging region.

ECCOE Landsat quarterly calibration and validation report—Quarter 4, 2025

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:12:17

Executive Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level.

This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 4 (October–December) of 2025. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov.

One specific activity that the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team closely monitored was a Landsat 9 safehold anomaly. On October 17, 2025, Landsat 9 experienced a Solar Array Drive Assembly potentiometer fault. The onboard fault response put both the Operational Land Imager sensor and the Thermal Infrared Sensor into safe mode. Additionally, the Thermal Infrared Sensor focal plane assembly was turned off, but the cryocooler remained on. On October 20, 2025, the Solar Array Drive Assembly recovery commanding was successfully performed to put the spacecraft into nadir viewing mode. The following day, Operational Land Imager activation and recovery started, including focal plane assembly warmup. After reaching nominal operational temperatures and achieving thermal stability, science imaging resumed on October 23, 2025. Additional information about the Landsat 9 safehold anomaly is here: https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-9-returns-normal-operations-following-brief-safehold.

System characterization report on Tanager

Kim, Minsu; Park, Seonkyung; Clauson, Jeff; Vrabel, Jim; Sampath, Ajit — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:03:45

Executive Summary

This report addresses the system characterization of the Tanager satellite hyperspectral sensor created by Planet Labs PBC. and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced and delivered by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports present and detail the methodology and procedures for characterization; present technical and operational information about the Tanager hyperspectral sensor; and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions.

This report summarizes the sensor performance of the Tanager based on the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization process. In summary, we determined that the Tanager exhibits a band-to-band geometric error ranging from -0.074 to 0.097 pixels. Compared to the Landsat Operational Land Imager, geometric offsets ranged from -5.980 meters (-0.20 pixels) to 11.348 meters (0.40 pixels). Radiometric comparisons showed offsets between -0.004 and 0.056 with slopes from 0.830 to 1.066. Spectral shifts are found between 0.65 and 0.75 nanometers. Finally, spatial performance evaluation yielded a PSF full width at half maximum of 1.27 to 1.75 pixels, a relative edge response of 0.802 to 0.651, and a modulation transfer function at Nyquist of 0.488 to 0.253.

Bird migration and energetics simulations incorporating oil spill effects

West, Benjamin; Wildhaber, Mark; Thogmartin, Wayne; Hooper, Michael — Wed, 20 May 2026 15:16:44

Oil spills are well-known for causing acute mortality of birds, but sublethal and delayed impacts are less understood. Focusing on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), we used simulation modeling to explore how sublethal oiling may affect avian survival and breeding ground body condition. We used empirically informed migration and energetics simulations to model hypothetical spills occurring in northern Arkansas, USA occurring in either January to simulate thermoregulatory stress or March to simulate pre-migration effects. We modeled trace and lightly oiled female mallards (≤5% or 6 to 20% of feather area oiled, respectively), incorporating oiling-induced energetic effects on thermoregulation, flight, and energetic gain. We found that mortality was generally higher for simulated spills occurring in January versus March. In the simulations, mallards lost body mass due to oiling, but surviving individuals could partially recover body mass before arriving at the breeding grounds. Including oiling-induced energetic gain effects in simulations increased mortality as well as increased overall variability of simulation results. This modeling effort identified an important gap in knowledge regarding oiled bird energetics, specifically a need to better quantify oiling-induced energetic gain changes. Although the model is currently limited to a specific species and geographic area, it serves as a proof-of-concept for future research and modeling efforts aimed at understanding more broadly the impacts of oil spills on avian populations.

Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy

Wed, 20 May 2026 13:25:16

During the Quaternary, trees responded to the climatic changes of glacial–interglacial cycles with large-scale range shifts. Over cold glacials, temperate tree species contracted their ranges and survived in areas known as refugia. Several studies point to the Euganean Hills (Colli Euganei), in Veneto, northern Italy, as one of the northernmost European refugia of temperate tree species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca 23 000–19 000 calibrated years BP). Using LandClim, a spatially explicit, dynamic forest landscape model, we demonstrate that climate conditions during the LGM likely allowed temperate tree species to persist in the Euganean Hills. The identified refugial locations lie at intermediate to high elevations and in sheltered valleys within the hilly complex. Therefore, the combined palaeoecological and modelling evidence suggests that today's temperate forests of the Euganean Hills have a full glacial legacy.

Simulations under future climate conditions suggest a collapse of the sub-mediterranean and oro-mediterranean deciduous forests that are prevalent today and the expansion of thermo-mediterranean evergreen forests (with e.g. Quercus ilex, Q. suber, Olea europaea and Pinus sp.). Specifically, the extrazonal population of oro-mediterranean Fagus sylvatica, which is unique to the Po Plain and likely persisted locally through several glacial–interglacial cycles, is predicted to sharply decline and face local extinction, underscoring a conservation hazard.

Multi-proxy thermal history of basin heating during Cordilleran orogenesis in the Magallanes-Austral retroarc foreland basin, Patagonian Andes

Thu, 21 May 2026 15:02:01

Resolving thermal histories in sedimentary basins is crucial for interpreting orogenic growth, basin burial, and tectonic processes during Cordilleran orogenesis. In the Magallanes–Austral Basin, Patagonian Andes, we integrate new (U-Th)/He thermochronology, vitrinite reflectance (%R_o), calcite-cement clumped isotope data and thermal history modelling to resolve the origin of the regionally extensive Paleogene unconformity (51°S–50°S). Thermal history modelling results require post-depositional heating of Palaeocene (Danian–Selandian) strata below the unconformity and suggest maximum burial temperatures of 87°C–101°C (55–52 Ma) and 89°C–92°C (18–16 Ma). For lower Eocene strata above the unconformity, Miocene burial temperatures (89°C–92°C) are consistent with calcite cement formation temperatures (~62°C–92°C) from carbonate clumped isotopes. Our results indicate that basin burial and heating between ca. 60 and 52 Ma were likely driven by shallowing of the subducting Farallon plate and enhanced plate coupling preceding arrival of the Farallon–Phoenix mid-ocean ridge. Subsequent basin inversion and cooling from ca. 52 to 44 Ma correspond with subduction of this mid-ocean ridge. Refined thermal models, constrained by expanded thermochronometric and organic maturation datasets, indicate that up to ~1.7–2.0 km of proximal foreland basin strata were removed during uplift and erosion across the Paleogene basin margin. A return to basin subsidence beginning ca. 44 Ma may reflect dynamic subsidence after passage of the mid-ocean ridge and renewed coupling between the fold-thrust belt and foreland basin system. Neogene thermal histories document continued subsidence, localized hot orogenic fluid flow along stratigraphic boundaries, followed by a final phase of basin inversion and cooling at ca. 18–16 Ma, which we attribute to regional uplift associated with Chile ridge subduction. Altogether, this study demonstrates that multiple thermal indices when analysed and modelled can provide clarity for tectonic and stratigraphic events that affect foreland basins.

Spawning habitat suitability models for Lake Erie cisco (Coregonus artedi) during the historical period of pre- and post-population declines 1877–1957

Tue, 19 May 2026 14:46:14

Coregonine fishes play a key role in the food webs and fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes and are a major focus of basin-wide conservation efforts. In Lake Erie, management goals prioritize rebuilding spawning populations of cisco (Coregonus artedi). However, the historical distribution of cisco spawning habitat and the environmental conditions that influence early life-stage success remain poorly defined. We used a novel database of historical coregonine spawning observations as well as novel habitat variables to describe historical conditions to model and determine where and what habitat was historically most suitable for spawning cisco in Lake Erie. The environmental predictors that produced the best model included reefs, distance to rivers, historical substrate, coefficient of variation of ice duration, fetch, and circulation. The highest suitability occurred in areas of high reef probability, near river mouths, in rocky and sandy substrate, and in areas of low variability in historical ice, fetch, and circulation. Suitable spawning habitat is predicted mostly around reefs in the western basin as well as along the coast and near rivers lake-wide. Our model identifies important habitat features and allows managers to envision relevant scales and locations at which to focus restoration efforts.

Unraveling protracted modification of Archean and Paleoproterozoic crust in central Laurentia, Penokean orogen, with garnet and accessory mineral geochronology and microstructural analysis

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 14:31:45

Proterozoic metamorphism and deformation of the southern margin of the Superior craton in the Lake Superior region is attributed to the Penokean orogeny (1890−1830 Ma). This model includes a period of crustal inversion in which Archean basement blocks were exhumed through overlying Paleoproterozoic strata, producing the corridor of gneiss domes that parallels the trend of the Penokean orogen across the northern Midcontinent, USA. However, recent geologic mapping and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology challenge this interpretation, suggesting instead that the gneiss dome structures reflect younger episodes of tectonic activity along the southern margin of Laurentia. In absence of integrated pressure-temperature-time-deformation constraints for these rocks, interpretations are largely limited to their final cooling history, making it difficult to both identify the tectonic forces that shaped the architecture of the Penokean orogenic belt and assess the extent to which later Proterozoic tectonism modified the southern Superior craton. We address this problem with an approach joining thermodynamic modeling, garnet and accessory mineral geochronology, and microstructural analysis for several metamorphic rocks across the gneiss dome corridor. The U-Pb ages of titanite reveal that the Proterozoic geometries of exhumed basement gneiss domes are governed by preexisting Archean structures. Garnet Lu-Hf geochronology constrains the timing of prograde-to-peak metamorphism in the Penokean orogenic belt. Granulite facies metamorphism is related to the final stages of the Penokean orogeny at 1837 Ma and localized in a belt of high-grade rocks near a major Penokean suture. Garnet Lu-Hf ages of samples adjacent to gneiss domes reflect regional metamorphism following the accretionary phase of the Penokean orogeny, between 1825 Ma and 1782 Ma, which we suggest reflects continued crustal thickening related to convergence farther south during this time interval. Combination of garnet microstructures and Sm-Nd ages reflects later exhumation of gneiss domes and buried metasedimentary rocks by ca. 1750 Ma, consistent with previously published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar cooling ages across the region. Reset Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd garnet ages and U-Pb ages of syn-kinematic titanite reflect reactivation of primary Penokean structures during this period of basement uplift. These data document significant modification of the Penokean orogen and the Archean crust of the southern Superior province between 1800 Ma and 1700 Ma. Tectonic activity during this interval coincides with collisional events recognized in western Laurentia, suggesting that the period immediately following the Penokean orogeny may be a broadly important time for crustal growth and modification in proto-North America.

Baseflow and snowmelt sustained streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2020

Mon, 18 May 2026 15:41:10

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) faces substantial water availability limitations. Although most streamflow originates as snowmelt, the partitioning of snowmelt between surface runoff and groundwater recharge and subsequent groundwater discharge to streams is highly uncertain. On average, over half of the streamflow in the UCRB is estimated to originate from groundwater discharge to streams, highlighting the importance of baseflow in sustaining surface water. However, the historical patterns of baseflow and streamflow, along with their variability over space and time and their specific sources, remain unknown at the basin scale. This study addresses those gaps by characterizing the sources and transport pathways of both baseflow and streamflow in the UCRB at a seasonal timestep from 1986 to 2020, including the lagged delivery of subsurface water to streams beyond the current season, using coupled models of baseflow and streamflow. Between 1986 and 2020, on average 63% of UCRB streamflow originated from baseflow. About half of this baseflow took longer than one season to reach streams, and outside the snowmelt season, baseflow was the dominant source of streamflow. Snowmelt was a key source of both baseflow and streamflow. Current season snowmelt contributed 33% of streamflow via runoff, and 22% of the 29% of streamflow that originated as current season baseflow via subsurface flow to streams. Over the study period, baseflow index (BFI) declined in headwaters and increased at mid-elevations. Springtime increases in BFI demonstrate the increasingly important role baseflow plays in water supply. Identifying the sources, locations, and timing of water that contributed to the UCRB outlet can inform management of water resources in the basin.

Quantifying southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) reactions to a quadcopter drone in central California

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 13:15:14

Drones are useful for wildlife research and management, but they can cause disturbance and harassment to wildlife. Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are candidates for drone-based observation and monitoring but are vulnerable to disturbance. No studies have evaluated drone effects on sea otter behavior, but based on prior disturbance studies, we hypothesized: (1) sea otters would exhibit behaviors indicating higher reactivity in the presence of drones than when drones were absent and (2) drone disturbance to sea otters would be greater when drones were closer. At two sites in Monterey Bay, CA, we conducted 37 observational sessions, recording behavior codes for focal sea otters during a baseline (no drone) period and three consecutive drone flights. Data were analyzed using ANOVA and ordinal logistic regression models. At both locations, focal sea otters had higher behavior codes during drone trials compared to baseline, and behavior codes increased with descending drone altitude. Pup presence, group size, flight trial number, and gull presence were significant covariables. We calculated multipliers to predict drone-mediated behavioral responses at a range of drone altitudes. Our findings can inform best practices for a variety of uses of drones around sea otters, including population monitoring, oil spill response, and drone photography/videography.

VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment

Mon, 18 May 2026 15:28:47

Study region

Continental Africa, encompassing diverse climatic zones—tropical, arid, and temperate—and spanning major transboundary river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Congo, Volta, and Zambezi River Basins. The region exhibits pronounced hydroclimatic gradients and heterogeneous land use systems ranging from rainfed croplands and rangelands to dense tropical forests and irrigated schemes.

Study focus

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a central component of the terrestrial water balance, governing the redistribution of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of ETa at continental scale is critical for hydrological monitoring, water resource management, and climate adaptation, as well as for quantifying water, energy, and carbon fluxes that underpin sustainable development. In this study, we applied the agro-hydrologic VegET v2 model to simulate a new, high-resolution, continental-scale ETa dataset for Africa (2000–2021). The model results were benchmarked against four widely used remote sensing-based products—MODIS16 v6.1, SSEBop v6.1, WaPOR v3, and GLEAM v4.1a—across major climate zones, land use types, and River Basins, providing a comprehensive multi-product evaluation of evapotranspiration dynamics across the continent.

New hydrological insights for the region

Validation against eddy covariance flux tower observations at eight representative sites confirmed that VegET v2 accurately reproduces the seasonal dynamics of observed ETa, achieving a correlation (r) of 0.8 and an RMSE of 25 mm month⁻¹ —accuracy that is comparable to or higher than accuracies of satellite-based products MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM. This study represents one of the first Africa-wide hydrological simulations of ETa, extending the VegET model beyond basin-scale applications. Intercomparisons reveal that VegET aligns closely with MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM in humid and tropical regions (r = 0.80–0.90; RMSE < 20 mm month⁻¹), while greater discrepancies appear in arid and semi-arid zones, where WaPOR tends to overestimate ETa (RMSE ≥ 28 mm month⁻¹). Despite these differences, VegET effectively captures spatial and temporal ETa variability across rainfed croplands, forests, and savannas, supporting its utility in regional water balance assessments, water accounting, and drought monitoring. A key application of VegET v2 is the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), derived by integrating VegET-based ETa with potential evapotranspiration (PET) to quantify water stress. ETDI successfully captured major drought episodes across Africa, including persistent Sahelian and southern African dry spells, the 2020–2021 winter drought in the Maghreb, and the 2018–2019 austral summer drought in southern Africa, while identifying positive anomalies over central Africa indicative of recurrent wetness. These results underscore VegET’s capability as a hydrologically consistent, operational tool for continental ETa monitoring and drought assessment, offering support for basin-scale water balance studies, food security planning, and climate resilience across Africa’s diverse hydrological environments.

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:41:22

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years.

Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr.

Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued.

Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

Wed, 27 May 2026 14:26:16

Earthquakes of magnitude (M) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by “barriers” that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.

Syn-magmatic subsidence during the early stages of continental rifting in the Mesoproterozoic—A reanalysis of legacy data for the Midcontinent Rift, western Lake Superior

Grauch, V.; Woodruff, Laurel; Heller, Samuel; Stewart, Esther — Fri, 29 May 2026 13:44:35

The Midcontinent Rift system (ca. 1.1 Ga) is a 2000-km-long series of elongated volcanic and sedimentary troughs and associated intrusive centers exposed chiefly in the Lake Superior region of North America. The rift system represents a long history of intense magmatism and subsequent sedimentation that was arrested by far-field tectonic events before sea-floor spreading was established. The premature cessation preserved a record of processes related to the beginning of continental rifting.

The rift system under Lake Superior has been long studied using seismic-reflection data collected as part of the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE). We reexamine GLIMPCE Line C by developing a detailed velocity model for time to depth conversion constrained by other legacy data. We corroborate the model and develop a geologic interpretation using gravity and magnetic modeling and ties to geology mapped onshore.

We recognize superposed subsiding sedimentary and volcanic basins for the southern half of the Line C depth section. This interpretation differs from previous paradigms that show major crustal faults that bound half-grabens or full grabens. We conclude that high-velocity (6.9 km/s) intrusive zones rather than major crustal faults border the sides of the basins. We speculate that the volcanic basin represents the initiation of seaward dipping reflectors.

The syn-magmatic subsidence can be explained by dike injection and volcanic loading. Discrete lava basins throughout the region likely subsided at different times in a disorganized manner along the rift trend, raising questions about the long-term role of lithospheric thinning and melt generation.

Timing, uncertainty, and opportunity cost: Lessons for ecosystem modification on the Colorado River

Mon, 18 May 2026 14:54:02

While conservation goals have long been pursued through traditional species-augmenting actions, a broader set of episodic ecosystem modification (EEM) actions, such as hydropower dam releases, prescribed fire, and beach nourishment, is garnering attention. EEM actions face several implementation challenges stemming from high opportunity costs, delayed effect mechanisms, reliance on monitoring for deployment timing, and outcome uncertainty due to infrequent use. In this paper, we study the use of EEM actions in the form of designer flows—ecologically-motivated releases of water into regulated river segments—to maintain a viable population of a threatened native fish species in the Colorado River. We demonstrate how the cost-effectiveness of EEM actions can be hampered by the complex and delayed effects on species viability, but enhanced through targeted monitoring for timing deployment and experimentation for reducing uncertainty about effectiveness.

Integrating mark-recapture, catch, and expert habitat assessments to quantify recent increases in humpback chub abundance over a 200 km long river segment of the Colorado River in western Grand Canyon

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:27:41

Humpback chub, Gila cypha, were historically distributed throughout large portions of the Colorado River basin and were federally listed in 1967. In the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, located below Glen Canyon Dam, chub abundances continued to decline through the early 2000s. Recently, catch has increased substantially, especially in the western Grand Canyon. Here, we integrate mark-recapture and catch data of subadult and adult humpback chub, with expert assessments of habitat suitability and an underlying model of spatial autocorrelation, to estimate abundance in western Grand Canyon from 2010 to 2024, a time of rapid population increase and expansion. Our model suggests that adult abundance grew ∼160 fold during this 15-year period, with a median adult population abundance of 70 000 (40 000–200 000; 95% credible interval) in 2024. Our approach identifies years with high population growth and indicates that the spatial distribution has changed over time. We test the sensitivity of our results to movement into sampling reaches during sampling with baited hoop nets. Despite rapid population growth, the resilience of humpback chub in western Grand Canyon is unknown.

Storm surge barriers reduce seaward sediment supply to lagoonal estuaries

Ralston, David; Orton, Philip; Warner, John C.; Kasaei, Shima — Thu, 14 May 2026 13:56:24

Numerical simulations with realistic forcing of fixed infrastructure for a proposed storm surge barrier for a lagoonal estuary, Jamaica Bay (New York, USA), are analyzed during typical forcing conditions to assess alterations to flow and sediment transport with the barrier open. Lagoonal estuaries are shallow and have modest watershed freshwater and sediment inputs, so sediment delivery is primarily from offshore by tidal transport. The storm surge barrier infrastructure across the inlet channel reduces cross-sectional area and increases tidal velocities, increasing frictional and form drag. The overall reduction in tidal amplitude is about 1%, but the quarterdiurnal M₄ component decreases by 11%. The salinity and stratification in the estuary are only slightly modified by mixing by stronger velocities near the barrier. Sediment transport in the inlet scales approximately with tidal velocity cubed and net landward transport is driven by flood-dominant tidal asymmetry. Additionally, tidal asymmetry in the jet flow through barrier openings causes a divergence in sediment transport within several kilometers. The alterations to the tidal currents reduce sediment import to the bay by 20% for fine sand; transport of sediment with slower settling velocities is less affected, with reductions of 3% for medium silt and <1% for fine silt. The study examined tidal exchange with an open barrier, but the overall impact also depends on barrier operations during major storm events. The impacts of barrier infrastructure on lagoonal estuaries are distinct from other estuary types due to their modest freshwater input, predominance of tidal transport, and offshore sediment supply.

Salinas Valley integrated hydrologic and reservoir operations models, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California

Fri, 15 May 2026 17:52:16

The area surrounding the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties of California is a highly productive agricultural area, contributes substantially to the local economy, and provides a substantial portion of vegetables and other agricultural commodities to the Nation. This region of California provides about half of the Nation’s lettuce, celery, broccoli, and spinach each year. Thus, this agricultural area provides substantial volumes of agricultural products not just for California but for the United States.

Changes in population and increased agricultural development, which includes a shift toward more water-intensive crops, and climate variability, have put increasing demand on both surface-water and groundwater resources in the valley. This situation has resulted in water management challenges in the Salinas Valley that generally relate to the distribution of the water supply throughout the basin. Where and when the water is present in the surface and subsurface does not coincide with where and when the water is needed. Historically, to deal with the distribution issue, water has been used conjunctively in the valley. Conjunctive use is a water management strategy that coordinates surface-water and groundwater use to maximize water availability. Groundwater is used throughout the Salinas Valley to meet water demands when surface-water supplies are insufficient. The availability of surface water is constrained by climate. Precipitation and streamflow vary seasonally and year to year. Although there are two reservoirs in the Salinas Valley to capture and store water during wet periods, the only conveyance of reservoir water to coastal agricultural areas is the Salinas River. Increasing demand for groundwater and surface-water resources throughout the Salinas Valley has resulted in undesirable effects from unsustainable water use, such as surface-water depletion, groundwater-level declines, storage depletion in the principal aquifers, and seawater intrusion. To address these escalating issues, local communities, water management agencies, and groundwater sustainability agencies are evaluating how to sustainably manage both their surface-water and groundwater resources. To meet water demands and reduce the undesirable effects of unsustainable water use, continued conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater would ideally incorporate strategies to deal with increases in demand and climate variability.

To evaluate the challenging water management issues in the Salinas Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, Monterey County Water Resources Agency, and the Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency developed a comprehensive suite of models that represent the Salinas Valley hydrogeologic system called the Salinas Valley System Model. The geologic framework is known as the Salinas Valley Geologic Framework and was developed to characterize the subsurface using various topographic and geologic data sources, including information on hydrogeologic units, their surfaces and extents, geologic structures, lithology, and elevations from borehole data and cross sections, as well as details on faults and existing models. The surface-water model is called the Salinas Valley Watershed Model and simulates the Salinas River watershed. Monthly surface-water inflows into the integrated hydrologic model domain were simulated using the Salinas Valley Watershed Model. The historical model uses historical climate data, water and land use data, and reservoir releases to simulate agricultural operations, including landscape water demands, diversions, and reclaimed wastewater. The operational model adds an embedded reservoir operations framework to the simulation of the historical model that allows specified operational rules to simulate reservoir releases and changes in reservoir storage. The operational model assumes current reservoir operations and constant land use, which differs from historical conditions. Thus, the operational model is a hypothetical baseline model that can be used by local water managers to evaluate and quantify potential benefits of water supply projects. Together, the geologic framework, watershed, historical, and operational models form a tool that can be used to simulate irrigated agriculture and associated reservoir operations of the integrated hydrologic system of the Salinas Valley.

Top Elevation of Glacial Till and Thickness of the Big Sioux Aquifer Delineated From Electrical Resistivity Tomography Surveys Near Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 2022 and 2025

Medler, Colton; Anderson, Todd — Fri, 15 May 2026 17:44:04

The City of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, requested the U.S. Geological Survey perform electrical resistivity surveys on three parcels of land north of the city. Electrical resistivity data were collected along a total of 22 transects during March 14–18, 2022, and November 17–21, 2025. Results from electrical resistivity surveys were used to delineate the top of glacial till deposits for the purpose of characterizing the Big Sioux aquifer near the city. Delineating geologic contacts provides important information on groundwater storage, flow dynamics, well design and placement, contaminant transport, groundwater–surface-water interactions, and regional water modeling. The top elevation of glacial till and the thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer varied among the three survey areas. The interpreted top elevation of glacial till in the North survey area decreases from east to west toward a slough, with elevations ranging from 1,403 to 1,418 feet (ft). The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the North survey area increased from east to west, with thicknesses ranging from 23 to 38 ft. The top elevation of glacial till in the Well 72 survey area generally decreases from northwest to southeast. Top elevations of the glacial till in the Well 72 survey area ranged from 1,400 to 1,409 ft along the southern end of transect W72_2. The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the Well 72 survey area was greatest along a southeast to northwest trending channel, with thicknesses ranging from 28 to 40 ft. The top elevation of glacial till in the Nose survey area generally decreases west toward the Big Sioux River. Top elevations of the glacial till in the Nose survey area ranged from 1,362 to 1,395 ft. The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the Nose survey area ranged from 33 to 70 ft.

Effects of wildfire on soil hydraulic properties in the western Oregon Cascades

Pimont, Cedric; Thaler, Evan; Ebel, Brian A.; Bladon, Kevin — Thu, 14 May 2026 13:32:52

Wildfires can substantially impact the hydrology of forested watersheds, increasing the risk of hydrologic hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. Soil hydraulic properties related to infiltration are a key control in determining the timing and magnitude of these hydrogeomorphic events. In our study, we collected 445 soil cores from burned (216 cores) and unburned (229 cores) reference catchments and analyzed them for soil hydraulic properties 10 months after the 2022 Cedar Creek Fire in Oregon, USA. We observed significantly greater field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_fs), sorptivity (S), and wetting front potential (Ψ_f) in burned soils relative to unburned soils, with median ratios of 5.7, 4.4, and 5.0, respectively. Among low-, moderate-, and high burn severity groups, soil hydraulic properties were not statistically different. Reductions in median soil bulk density with increasing burn severity suggested an expansion of pore sizes, which may have been partially responsible for increasing K_fs and S. Additionally, in some burned soil samples, the increase in soil hydraulic properties may have been partially related to a concurrent reduction in “natural background” water repellency that is characteristic of dry, unburned soils in the Western Cascades. We observed no evidence of spatial autocorrelation in K_fs using semivariogram analysis. Principal component analysis paired with a k-means cluster analysis suggested that soil physical properties explained variations in soil hydraulic properties better than landscape attributes. Although there is a lack of regional results for comparison, our results trend in the opposite direction from drier, lower net primary productivity regions that are typically studied for post-wildfire soil hydraulic properties.

Hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model of the panhandle and northwest parts of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in Oklahoma, 1998–2022

Mon, 11 May 2026 17:07:27

This study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, to update the hydrogeologic framework and conceptual flow model for the panhandle and northwest parts of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in Oklahoma, which together compose the Ogallala aquifer focus area. The study included the construction of a potentiometric surface, and available geologic and hydrologic data were used to evaluate saturated thickness of the aquifer. The water budget for the updated conceptual groundwater-flow model was based on estimated inflows and outflows for the 1998–2022 study period.

Saturated thickness of the Ogallala aquifer averaged 127 and 116 feet for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively. Groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer for 1998–2022 averaged 422,054 and 39,645 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively. Recharge, the primary inflow, was estimated at 0.63 inch per year for the 1998–2022 study period, with the panhandle part of the Ogallala aquifer receiving 175,068 acre-ft/yr and the northwest part of the Ogallala aquifer receiving 49,376 acre-ft/yr. Additional inflows included irrigation return flows, estimated at 8,111 and 642 acre-ft/yr for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively, of the Ogallala aquifer. Net lateral groundwater flows, considered to be aquifer outflows, were estimated to account for 31,908 acre-ft/yr for the Ogallala aquifer focus area. Streambed seepage, which was an outflow of 5,535 acre-ft/yr, was only present in the northwest part of the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical leakage and saturated-zone evapotranspiration were considered negligible outflows. These findings provide a revised conceptual groundwater-flow model water budget for the Ogallala aquifer focus area in Oklahoma.

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:47:26

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Accounting for emigration reveals high survival and bimodal size at departure from a loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) foraging area

Blommel, Caroline; Lamont, Margaret; Kendall, William — Wed, 20 May 2026 14:57:35

The life history of hard-shelled sea turtles includes several ontogenetic shifts in habitat use and these complex permanent emigration patterns can impact estimates of stage-specific population rates, including survival. We developed several multistate mark recapture models to estimate survival of adult and juvenile loggerhead turtles from a coastal bay in the northern Gulf of America (also commonly referred to as the Gulf of Mexico) while, in some cases, accounting for permanent emigration and transient individuals. Our mark-recapture dataset consisted of 228 individual turtles with 37 total recaptures from 2011 to 2024. Of the models we fit, those that incorporated emigration produced higher estimates for annual survival than models that did not, and higher estimates than what is commonly seen in the literature for loggerheads. All models suggested a major permanent emigration pulse at the typical size of sexual maturity (70 cm straight carapace length) and another major pulse at > 90 cm. This bimodal pattern of departure may reflect differences in size at sexual maturity among loggerheads, possible genetic variability within the assemblage, or both. To assess the models’ ability to effectively recover true parameter values, we developed a simulation study of 50 randomly generated independent data sets under our specified models of similar sample size to our study dataset. Simulation results suggested that models that accounted for permanent emigration and transient individuals produced relatively unbiased estimates of survival, while models that did not often underestimated survival rates. Mark-recapture studies that may exhibit emigration and suffer from low recapture rates would benefit from auxiliary data collection such as acoustic telemetry detections to better estimate true rates of emigration and survival. Obtaining unbiased estimates of true survival by accounting for processes like emigration can support effective conservation of endangered long-lived species like loggerheads.

Refinement of a framework for Moving Aircraft River Velocimetry (MARV) and application to particle tracking along Alaskan rivers

Legleiter, Carl; Kinzel, Paul; Laker, Mark; Conaway, Jeff — Tue, 12 May 2026 13:47:57

Information on river velocities enhances understanding flood hazards, evaluating habitat conditions, and predicting the transport of floating materials. In this follow-up study, we used data from two new sites, one with a more complex morphology and the other with a lower suspended sediment concentration, to provide further evidence that Moving Aircraft River Velocimetry (MARV) can yield accurate velocity estimates ( R² up to 0.87 when compared to field measurements) for long segments of large, turbid rivers. The MARV workflow is packaged in freely available software and is robust to implementation details; neither buffering to mitigate edge effects nor a new approach to aggregating velocity vectors improved performance. MARV was not sensitive to parameters used to establish overlapping image sequences, but combining a long window with a short jump between consecutive windows was the optimal configuration. Although accuracy varied from one cross section to the next, agreement between remotely sensed velocities and those measured in the field was independent of position within a frame range. As an initial step toward application of the approach to help address practical problems, we showed how MARV can drive particle tracking models. Our first-order simulations suggest that channel morphology and flow velocity are the primary controls on travel time and particle fate, with diffusive processes playing a lesser role. Although MARV can be used to characterize an instantaneous flow field, a more comprehensive framework that accounts for other physical processes would be required to model specific types of events like oil spills.

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Harte, Philip; Collins, Andrew — Mon, 11 May 2026 20:03:08

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction.

In 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed.

Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

Landscape connectivity and wildlife access to water across an international border: Barriers and opportunities for facilitating transboundary movement

Tue, 19 May 2026 13:56:31

Rapid global acceleration in the construction of physical barriers along international borders has greatly influenced biodiversity and animal movement. Physical barriers can fragment landscapes, hinder access to essential resources, impact long-distance migrations, and inhibit dispersal and gene flow. The effects of physical barriers on animal movement and landscape connectivity can be exacerbated in dryland environments where access to water is a limiting factor. In recent decades, the construction of border barrier infrastructure has accelerated along the international boundary between the United States and Mexico. Here, we used a landscape connectivity model to investigate the effects of barriers on wildlife access to the river in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. We used a modified omnidirectional connectivity model to compare access to the river for three large, terrestrial mammal species across three border barrier scenarios: (1) a landscape without border barriers; (2) a landscape with the existing barrier system; and (3) a potential future landscape with a continuous barrier system. The existing barrier system includes many discrete sections of barrier within tracts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge or on lands associated with the region's flood control system. Our results indicate that the existing border barriers can impede connectivity and wildlife access to the river in some areas, while some existing gaps between border barrier sections can serve as conduits for wildlife movement and river access. Our future scenario results show how a potential continuous border barrier system could further impede wildlife access to the river. We discuss management and landscape conservation options for enhancing wildlife access to water and riverine habitats. Collectively, our results illustrate the potential effects of border barriers on wildlife movement and access to water, providing information that can be used to better anticipate and lessen the ecological impacts of transboundary barriers.

Regression models for estimating suspended sediment concentrations and loads and comparison with acoustic surrogate model on the Snake River, Weiser, Idaho, 1977–2022

Kenworthy, Megan — Mon, 11 May 2026 17:06:06

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Idaho Power, developed streamflow- based regression models to estimate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and loads on the Snake River at Weiser, Idaho site (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 13269000; hereafter referred to as “Snake at Weiser site”). This site sits upstream from the dams and reservoirs of the Hells Canyon Complex and the Hells Canyon National Recreation Area, where large sandbars along the Snake River that provide recreation and riparian habitat and host archaeological resources have declined since 1973. Analyses of samples from historical (1977- 2003) and modern (2017- 22) periods show that SSC has decreased over time, with median concentrations declining from 50 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 28 mg/L. Mann- Kendall trend tests confirm statistically significant declines in total SSC and the fine and sand fractions of suspended sediment through the full period of record.

Regression models specific to each period outperformed models using the full dataset, suggesting changes in the sediment supply to this reach of the Snake River and highlighting the need for period- based approaches. Regression models for total SSC and fine sediment were more accurate than those for sand, which exhibited greater error and bias, likely reflecting a sand supply limited by upstream dams. The regression model for modern period total SSC and a previously developed acoustic surrogate model showed similar performance, indicating both methods are viable for estimating SSC and loads.

These findings help to better quantify suspended sediment concentrations and loads upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex and provide resource managers with tools to better quantify sediment loads affecting reservoir storage and the maintenance of sandbars in the Hells Canyon National Recreation Area.

Reconstructing ancient sedimentary source-to-sink systems – Examples from southern Laurentia’s Proterozoic accretionary orogens

Hillenbrand, Ian; Thomson, Kelly — Tue, 26 May 2026 14:38:17

Provenance analysis is a powerful tool for investigating sediment delivery networks, constraining magmatic histories, and reconstructing the tectonic evolution of orogenic belts and basins. Basin analysis studies increasingly use detrital zircon (DZ) U-Pb forward mixture modeling to enhance provenance interpretations by quantifying the relative contributions of different sources. Forward mixture modeling requires significant a priori knowledge that limits deep-time applications. This challenge is overcome with an inverse mixture modeling approach non-negative matrix factorization to reconstruct the number and age distributions of paleo-source regions of Proterozoic metasedimentary rocks in the southwestern United States. This analysis indicates eight reconstructed end-member distributions representing unique sediment sources: two multi-modal end members characterized by ages older than ca. 1.8 Ga from cratonic Laurentia, five unimodal age distributions between ca. 1.80 Ga and 1.65 Ga consistent with Paleoproterozoic arc magmatic sources, and a ca. 1.6−1.5 Ga end member likely derived from exotic cratons in supercontinent Nuna (Columbia). Sediments deposited between ca. 1.80 Ga and 1.73 Ga yield heterogeneous age distributions suggesting multiple arc-backarc systems and several phases of slab roll back, contraction, and accretionary orogenesis, including input from pre−1.8 Ga Laurentian cratons. Homogenization of DZ signatures during the Yavapai orogeny (ca. 1.72−1.68 Ga) reflect crustal assembly as well as the uplift of Paleoproterozoic arcs in the orogenic hinterland. Detrital zircon age distributions from strata deposited during the Mazatzal orogeny (ca. 1.65−1.60 Ga) suggest the Mazatzal Province is a continental arc constructed on older crust. Mesoproterozoic samples are consistent with multiple basins derived from local recycling and long-distance sediment transport. Collectively, these data record the tectonic transition from the episodic accretion of disparate crustal domains to an increasingly integrated continental margin. These results provide new insights into the Proterozoic tectonic and paleogeographic evolution of the southwestern United States at basin to orogen scales and highlight the power of inverse DZ modeling to extract geologically meaningful quantitative mixture models from sedimentary records alone, offering a powerful tool for deep-time tectonic and basin analysis.

Cook Inlet beluga whale calling varies by group characteristics, behavior, and tidal state

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:11:53

Communication allows social species to exchange information among group members. In aquatic environments, acoustic signals are among the most effective forms of communication and are important for many species, including cetaceans. Beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) are highly social and vocal, yet little is known about the functionality of their social calls. To examine context-dependent vocal behavior in belugas, we collected passive acoustic data and fine-scale behavioral observations for the endangered Cook Inlet beluga population. The resulting dataset includes 1,720 annotated vocalizations collected over 21 behaviorally encoded encounters. We fit generalized linear mixed models to these data to investigate the effect of behavioral state, group size, calf presence, and tidal state on (1) calling rate (number of calls/minute) and (2) call category (whistles, pulsed calls, combined calls). Belugas were more likely to call when traveling and had higher calling rates during flood tides. Group-level calling rate increased sublinearly with group size, suggesting that individuals called less in larger groups, possibly reflecting increased listening, vocal coordination, or a strategy to avoid acoustic masking. Group calling rate increased before transitions between traveling and milling, suggesting a possible link between communication and behavioral transitions. Whistles were more prevalent when traveling, while pulsed calls were more prevalent when milling. Combined calls occurred only when calves were present, indicating the importance of these calls in communication with calves. Identifying these communication patterns and the contexts in which they occur can enhance our understanding of beluga whale ecology and aid in conservation efforts via passive acoustic monitoring.

Acoustic measurements and modeling of sub-bottom layers on the summit of the Atlantis II Seamount

Tue, 26 May 2026 14:09:39

Sub-bottom profiler images taken from the summit plateau of the Atlantis II Seamount reveal distinct seabed stratigraphy, including marine sediment, limestone, and basalt layers. Acoustic reflection data also show arrivals reflecting from this sub-bottom structure. A wavenumber integration model with elastic geoacoustic properties is able to reproduce the arrival pattern of seabed reflections and particularly the phase inversion of the sub-bottom return. The reflection model suggests that the limestone layer is eroded with high porosity and possesses a lower compressional velocity than a well-cemented layer. The model results also highlight the necessity of incorporating elastic effects for realistic geoacoustic characterization.

Los Planes watershed vegetation monitoring: Standard operating procedures

Wilson, Natalie R. — Mon, 11 May 2026 13:48:50

This is a description of survey procedures for short term vegetation monitoring at Natural Infrastructure in Dryland Stream (NIDS) structure sites and control sites a ranch in the Los Planes, La Paz, Baja California Sur. This study design was modified from USGS Short Term Vegetation Response Study (Wilson et al. 2021) with the goal to quantify changes in species abundance/cover, structure, and composition. The Society of Ecological Restoration identifies 3 major ecosystem attributes of importance when assessing restoration projects, such as the installation of NIDS (Society for Ecological Restoration International Science & Policy Working Group 2004; Ruiz-Jaen and Mitchell Aide 2005). These attributes are vegetation structure, diversity, and ecological processes. Our protocol can be used to directly quantify vegetation structure and diversity and by collecting data over several years we can indirectly assess the ecohydrological processes associated with NIDS (Norman, Lal, et al. 2022).

Inland recreational fisheries harvest far exceeds reported inland harvest in the United States

Thu, 7 May 2026 15:11:11

Recreational fisheries are important global contributors to food security, socio-cultural practices, and local and regional economies. However, inland recreational fisheries are often overlooked by policymakers due to a limited understanding of the magnitude of participation, harvest, and economic impact. Here, we used the U.S. Inland Creel and Angler Survey Catalog and catch and effort model (CreelCatch) and several assumptions to provide an initial estimate of the magnitude of total inland recreational fisheries harvest in the conterminous USA. The CreelCatch model projected fishing harvest across lakes, ponds, and reservoirs based on fishing effort, water body area, and regional effects. We estimated that recreational lake fisheries in the conterminous USA likely harvest 236,000–671,000 tonnes of fish per year, 17–48 times greater than total inland fisheries harvest reported to the United Nations. Inland recreational fisheries may warrant greater consideration for their contribution to national scale socioeconomics and impacts on fish stocks and ecosystems.

Leopard occupancy and habitat use in the multi-use Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 16:58:23

We estimated leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) occupancy in a multi-use region within Nepal’s Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape to evaluate leopard habitat use and inform conservation planning in areas where most of the species’ habitat occurs outside protected areas. In 2021, sign surveys were conducted along 1277 km of transects distributed among 145 grid cells of 7×7 km within a 7105 km² study area, where 226 leopard signs (pugmarks and scats) were documented. We used an occupancy modeling framework to evaluate the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on leopard habitat use. We found that leopard occupancy (ψ = 0.73 ± 0.17 CI) was strongly and positively associated with areas used by wild prey such as red muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak), rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), chital (Axis axis), and wild boars (Sus scrofa). Our results provide evidence that large carnivores like leopards can persist in human-dominated landscapes when native prey remains abundant, underscoring the need for community-based conservation that sustains both prey and predator populations beyond protected areas. By estimating leopard occupancy outside of protected areas, the research establishes a baseline for developing management strategies to ensure the continued existence of leopards in Nepal's multi-use landscapes.

Drift and dispersion of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) eggs and larvae for hypothetical spawning scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River

LeRoy, Jessica; Loppnow, Grace; Jackson, P.; Lasher, G. — Thu, 7 May 2026 14:43:22

Invasive carp pose ecological and economic risks to North American freshwater systems. This study uses the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to model the drift of invasive silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) eggs and larvae after hypothetical spawning in Pools 1–10 of the Upper Mississippi River. Although adult invasive carps have been detected in this region, no reproduction has been confirmed as of this publication. A total of 450 spawning scenarios were simulated, representing 5 water temperatures, 9 flows, and 10 spawning locations in the tailwaters of lock and dam structures. The study examined egg and larval positions at two key developmental stages: hatching and gas bladder inflation, when larvae seek nursery habitat. Under a wide variety of flow conditions and water temperatures, eggs spawned upstream from Lake Pepin (Pool 4) are likely to settle in the lake before hatching, possibly increasing mortality rates. Eggs that survive passage through Lake Pepin reach gas bladder inflation within the study area, except in scenarios with lower temperatures and higher flows. Conversely, larvae spawned downstream from Lake Pepin generally drift out of the study area before reaching gas bladder inflation, except in cases of higher temperatures and lower flows. These findings inform ichthyoplankton sampling strategies and management actions aimed at reducing invasive carp populations in areas likely to support recruitment.

Analysis of alternative weir designs for improved passage of select fish at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging weir at Blackwells Mills, New Jersey

Suro, Thomas; Niemoczynski, Michal; Mulligan, Kevin — Mon, 11 May 2026 16:59:37

As the population of New Jersey continues to remain dense, the need for water supply will likely continue to be high, which can lead to water managers needing to make difficult decisions about managing drinking-water supply. Streamgaging weirs like the ones used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) play a critical role in providing accurate and stable streamflow data, but their presence can affect the passage of diadromous fish species such as river herring (Alosa pseudoharengus [alewife], Alosa aestivalis [blueback herring], and Alosa sapidissima [American shad]). In some situations, weirs existing in rivers and streams are no longer used because they were part of a farm irrigation system or some type of industrial operation. The weir at the USGS streamgage 01402000 Millstone River at Blackwells Mills, New Jersey, was purposefully built as a hydraulic-control structure that provides a precise and stable control for the measurement of stage and computation of continuous streamflow. To satisfy the dual need of maintaining accurate streamflow data and providing improved fish passage for select species of fish during migration season, the USGS proposed the development and evaluation of two alternative weir designs that would meet the criteria established for successful passage of American shad, alewife, and blueback herring during their yearly migration. The designs were also required to maintain adequate control of the upstream pool elevation necessary for the precise computation of streamflow used by State agencies for municipal water-supply purposes for surrounding communities.

Two alternative weir design modifications were incorporated at the center of the Blackwells Mills weir and modeled using two-dimensional hydraulic modeling software and three-dimensional computational fluid-dynamics software to simultaneously evaluate conditions for passage of the target fish species and effects to streamflow computations at the streamgage. The models were calibrated to existing conditions around the weir location using surveyed-elevation data and recorded stage, streamflow, and velocity in the Millstone River. The alternative weir designs lowered the weir crest by 1.02 feet (ft) and the resulting simulations showed an effective increase in depth of 0.98 ft at the median streamflow of 251 cubic feet per second (ft³/s) and 0.96 ft at the 95-percent exceedance streamflow of 98 ft³/s. The alternative weir designs were also found to increase streamflow depth across the shallowest portions of the weir structure at the downstream anti-scour skirt by lowering the skirt about 4 inches, allowing for two or more body depths of water for American shad, alewife, and blueback herring at the median migration streamflow of 251 ft³/s. The alternative weir designs also reduced the highest stream velocities across the downstream weir sill and anti-scour skirt from about 9 to 10 feet per second, and the depth-averaged velocity to about 7 to 8 feet per second. The sensitivity of the weir with respect to the computation of streamflow was increased from about 1.8 cubic feet per second per hundredth foot to 1.6 cubic feet per second per hundredth foot for streamflows of about 10–100 cubic feet per second.

Regional conservation planning tool: A spreadsheet model to support spatial prioritization and resource allocation decisions

Fri, 8 May 2026 14:24:23

Prioritization is a central component of natural resource management because conservation needs routinely exceed available resources. Waterfowl and wetland conservation programs in North America are at the forefront of landscape-scale prioritization and transboundary management decisions due to the migratory nature of ducks, geese, and swans. The growing availability of geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial technologies has accelerated the development of multi-objective landscape prioritization models, including applications of structured decision making and multi-criteria decision analysis to spatial planning for waterfowl and wetlands at the continental scale. However, regional managers and conservationists could benefit from flexibility in downscaling continental tools, selecting objectives, and assigning weights for rapid production of spatial prioritization models at smaller spatial scales without extensive computer coding or GIS analysis. We developed a spatial value model that prioritizes landscapes at sub-continental scales (e.g., states and provinces, bird conservation regions, etc.) and provides flexibility for users to select waterfowl conservation objectives of interest and weights. Our model can be used for direct downscaling of an existing continental geospatial model or further customized with region-specific geospatial data. We illustrate how regional prioritization can vary with the spatial scale selected by the user. The spatial value modeling framework and the downscaling tool presented here could increase the use of multi-criteria decision analysis and linear value modeling in spatial landscape prioritization, while also providing flexibility for selecting scales, objectives, and weights. Our spreadsheet tool was developed specifically for use by regional biologists, conservationists, and managers and does not require knowledge of GIS software (although results can be exported from the spreadsheet for spatial analysis using GIS). Together, the model outputs and the accompanying spreadsheet tool provide a bridge between continental waterfowl conservation and regional implementation, enabling rapid, stakeholder-driven, value-explicit prioritization.

Sex-specific Atlantic salmon upstream passage and fallback at a natural cascade after dam removal

Wed, 6 May 2026 14:17:24

In the Boquet River (NY, USA) a low-head dam set above a ~200-m bedrock cascade was removed in 2015. We used radio-telemetry to assess landlocked Atlantic salmon passage at the remaining cascade (2020, 2022). Across years, 52% of males (13/25) attempted cascade passage whereas females made no discernable attempts (0/11). Attempt probability increased with stream discharge and decreased with fish size, though overall passage success was low (1/36). Shallow depths—likely owing to an artificially widened channel—appear to be limiting passage. Additionally, we transported fish upstream but observed high fallback (72%) that was associated with fish size and energetic status. Following dam removal, this cascade continues to limit upstream passage resulting in increased vulnerability to angling during migratory delay. Overall, we highlight the importance of follow-up studies after dam removal, and that further modifications at this site may be required to improve passage.

Identifying potential invasion hotspots for non-native fluvial fishes throughout the conterminous United States

Wed, 3 Jun 2026 14:55:24

Identifying habitats that non-native fluvial fishes are likely to invade provides information for proactive management, conservation planning, and understanding the ecology of biological invasions. We identified streams in the conterminous United States with high invasion risk from 20 non-native fluvial fish species. Specifically, we (1) developed habitat suitability models for each species using nine natural and six anthropogenic predictors within nine large ecoregions, identifying the potential invasion hotspots; (2) evaluated the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic predictors for each species; and (3) assessed potential invasion risk to protected stream habitats. Predicted invasion hotspots included much of Florida, coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana, and areas surrounding major metropolitan centers such as Chicago, New York, and Phoenix. Model predictions indicate that goldfish (Carassius auratus), pirapitinga (Piaractus brachypomus), and pond loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus) could occupy extensive suitable habitats across the conterminous United States. The most influential natural predictor across species was network catchment area (a surrogate for stream size), while the most influential anthropogenic predictor was human population density. Goldfish were predicted to be present in protected areas across all nine ecoregions, highlighting their high invasion potential. Collectively, our results provide critical information on regions vulnerable to invasion and the species most likely to become established and identify areas at risk of invasion within protected landscapes.

An automated geographic information system-based hydraulic modeling tool for developing preliminary culvert designs for stream crossings in Massachusetts

Fri, 1 May 2026 19:08:48

Introduction

Currently (2026), many of the about 25,000 roadway crossing structures over rivers and streams in Massachusetts are undersized. Undersized culverts and bridges can be detrimental to fish and wildlife movement, habitat continuity, and the health of aquatic organisms. Undersized culverts also can lack the resiliency needed to withstand large floods, which could be worsened by potential increases in flood magnitude and frequency due to climate change. Improving culvert and bridge designs for stream crossing projects may improve aquatic organism passage, stream continuity, and resiliency during future floods by decreasing upstream overbank flooding, road flooding and erosion, and degradation of aquatic habitat.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP), and University of Massachusetts Amherst began a series of cooperative studies in July 2019 to develop an automated geographic information system (GIS) hydraulic modeling tool for preliminary culvert designs for stream crossings. The USGS plans to provide preliminary culvert designs in the web-based StreamStats application, which enables municipalities and engineers to view potential designs and related information for stream crossing replacement projects in Massachusetts. This application can (a) provide information on hydrology, hydraulics, and ecological conditions at stream crossing sites, (b) provide users with potential culvert designs to improve aquatic organism passage and flood resiliency, and (c) assist MassDEP in implementing the Massachusetts Wetlands Protection Act regulations for stream crossing projects.

Informing policy response to declining water supply in the Colorado River basin: Linking water supply management with outcomes for fish communities

Schmidt, John; Yackulic, Charles — Wed, 20 May 2026 16:45:06

Water-supply managers in the Colorado River Basin are tasked with balancing consumptive water use with natural water supply. Decisions associated with water-supply policy can include where and how much water consumption occurs, where water could be stored, and how to operate reservoirs. Water-supply decisions often affect other resources including energy production, recreation and aquatic ecosystems.

The goal of this project was to model how different water supply management scenarios might affect riverine ecosystems with a specific focus on potential impacts on federally listed fish populations, including threatened humpback chub (Gila cypha) and endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) and razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus). Threats to these endemic species include introduced non-native fish species that often become invasive, like smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and altered physical conditions that may favor these non-native fish species over the endemic fish species. Changes in how water supply may be managed in the Colorado River Basin can affect physical conditions in rivers by altering how much water flows through a particular river segment at a given time, by changing the extent of riverine ecosystems between reservoirs, and by determining the quality of water released from storage reservoirs with fixed release elevation (e.g., full reservoirs generally release colder water). To address our goal, we developed tools that coupled water storage models, river temperature models and fish population models to examine how different scenarios to operate Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and Flaming Gorge Reservoir, the three largest reservoirs in the watershed, may affect fish populations.

We developed our work plan when available water supply was diminished. At the end of our project period (May 2022), Lake Powell and Lake Mead contained historically low water levels, and our models were being used in evaluating different options for operating Lake Powell by the Bureau of Reclamation and other stakeholders.

An overview and participatory framework for choosing spatial boundaries in social–ecological systems modeling

Thu, 7 May 2026 15:15:49

A common challenge when modeling social–ecological systems (SESs) is defining the spatial extent of the system. Boundaries that do not adequately capture both social and ecological processes and their interactions can lead to mischaracterization of the system, while expanding boundaries too widely can impact model complexity and required resources. Socially, boundaries can invoke and influence identity, culture, power, and sense of place. Boundary decisions benefit from flexible, iterative approaches and the expertise of local communities. Here, we use a structured database search supplemented with citation searching to identify and review the literature that addresses choosing or defining spatial boundaries in SESs mapping or modeling and, when applicable, how participatory methods were used in the research process. In a review of the resulting 79 studies, we discovered that pre-existing social or ecological boundaries were used most frequently (36 and 18 publications, respectively). Twenty-one publications combined social and ecological boundaries or data to create custom boundaries, and four studies used an alternative approach to conventional boundaries. Informed by the literature review, we present a general framework for defining boundaries at the outset of SES research. We then connect the framework to a specific case study based on a collaborative project with Tribal, university, and federal scientists to develop a social–ecological climate adaptation plan. We present guiding questions alongside candidate boundaries for our study system and explore the tradeoffs of these boundary options, which can function as a useful template for other social–ecological research collaborations.

Revisiting the utility of regional-scale, high-quality geophysical data in mineral exploration - A case study featuring the Mammoth Magnetic Anomaly, Pinal County, Arizona

Walter, Callum — Mon, 18 May 2026 15:10:18

Regional aeromagnetic surveys passively measure the total magnetic intensity (TMI) and are a foundational tool used in mineral exploration (Airo, 2015). With the increased global demand and the number of critical mineral resources required for manufacturing high-tech devices, developing high-quality, regional-scale geophysical surveys could aid critical mineral exploration efforts and geologic mapping. In 2019, the U. S. Geological Survey launched the Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (Earth MRI) to modernize the geologic and geophysical mapping of regions that have the potential to contain critical mineral resources within the United States. In support of planning Earth MRI geophysical surveys, Drenth and Grauch (2019) defined five aeromagnetic data quality rankings (rank 1 through rank 5) applying them to the airborne geophysical survey inventory of the United States (Johnson et al., 2021). Rank 1 aeromagnetic surveys are of the highest quality, meeting modern standards and allowing best practices for qualitative and quantitative interpretation; whereas rank 5 aeromagnetic surveys are of the lowest quality, being useful only for qualitative interpretation of broad features. Through the Earth MRI effort, 48 high-quality, regional-scale rank 1 and 2 airborne magnetic and radiometric geophysical surveys have been planned, collected, or publicly release through May 2025 (U. S. Geological Survey, 2025). Here, a portion of a rank 1 Earth MRI aeromagnetic survey in southeast Arizona is presented and compared to a legacy rank 5 aeromagnetic survey over the Mammoth Magnetic Anomaly (MMA), demonstrating how modern, high-quality aeromagnetic data improves our view of crustal geology, aiding mineral exploration.

The United States Magnetotelluric Array and the National Impedance Map

Fri, 1 May 2026 14:26:55

The United States Magnetotelluric Array (USMTArray) data set, collected in the years 2006–2024, consists of more than 1,700 long-period magnetotelluric stations covering the entirety of the contiguous United States on a quasi-regular 70 km grid. Funding across multiple federal agencies was critical to sustaining this effort to its completion. Important components of the project included active guidance and participation from the MT community, the open and timely availability of all data, and the application of consistent instrumentation and robust data processing. Together with parallel advancement in the development of publicly available three-dimensional (3D) inversion codes, the USMTArray has revitalized the US magnetotelluric community and increased the visibility of magnetotellurics within the Earth-science community. Taken as a whole, these data are visualized as the National Impedance Map, which, together with a 3D synthesis conductivity model of the nation, reveals the electrical architecture of the contiguous US. USMTArray data are used by researchers worldwide for fundamental and applied studies, including investigations of continental architecture and evolution, estimation of hazards to critical infrastructure due to geomagnetic storms, and assessment of the nation's undiscovered geothermal and mineral resources. We here review the history and development of the project, discuss the challenges and successes in its execution, present the National Impedance Map and synthesis conductivity model, and highlight the breadth of research stemming from this rich data set.

Understanding the occurrence and distribution of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in surface waters of the nontidal Passaic River Basin

Fri, 1 May 2026 16:47:30

This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), was designed to characterize the occurrence and distribution of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in surface waters of the nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that have the potential to affect public-drinking-water quality. In 2025, 37 sites in the Wanaque, Ramapo, Pompton, and Passaic River watersheds were sampled in January, March, July, and September under base-flow conditions and a subset of sites was sampled during two rain events. Samples were analyzed for 40 individual PFAS and total organic carbon and a subset of samples was analyzed for 1,4-dioxane and trace elements. Fifteen PFAS were detected at least once, with individual concentrations ranging from 0.42 to 28 nanograms per liter (ng/L; median, 2.8 ng/L). Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) were widespread and detected in 100 and 97 percent of the samples, respectively. Concentrations of PFOA and PFOS ranged from 1.2 to 28 ng/L (median, 7.7 ng/L) and from 0.52 to 12 ng/L (median, 3.8 ng/L), respectively. Generally, concentrations were lower in the Wanaque and Ramapo River watersheds compared to the Pompton and Passaic River watersheds. Concentrations of PFOA and PFOS were highest in July and September when flows were low. During rain events, median concentrations of PFOS were elevated compared to those observed under base-flow conditions, indicating potential inputs from non-point sources. To understand potential drivers of PFAS concentrations, land cover and potential PFAS sources were summarized for each sampling site, and an accumulated wastewater model was used to estimate the percentage of wastewater from upstream municipal and industrial sources in all flowlines of the Passaic River Basin. Developed land, the number of potential sources, and the mean-annual accumulated wastewater percentage were highly correlated with PFAS concentrations and Deciduous Forests were negatively related to concentrations. Data provided by this study can be used by water purveyors and resource managers to make treatment and mitigation decisions to minimize PFAS in local surface waters used as drinking-water resources.

Forecasting spread of invasive fish over a largescale network of lakes using local expert knowledge

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 18:00:44

Understanding spatial distribution patterns is essential to management of invasive species. Aquatic invasive species can be notably challenging to detect due to the substantial effort required to locate them underwater. This limitation has resulted in a lack of timely distribution maps, particularly over vast regions, and hindered efforts to understand, forecast, and manage the proliferation of invasive bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.). Much of the Mississippi River basin, particularly the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, provides access to a massive network of interconnected floodplain lakes. In the absence of lake-specific monitoring data on carp occurrence status, we used local expert knowledge, provided by fish managers interviewed virtually, in conjunction with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, to predict bigheaded carps distribution in relation to lake physical characteristics. We predicted widespread carp invasion in more than 60% of over one thousand floodplain lakes, with lake size, inundation, and proximity to rivers closely related to carp presence. The resultant distribution map may be imprecise given the swift proliferation of bigheaded carps and sparse monitoring data, but it offers a baseline upon which presence data and range can be compared. This assessment method is also a resource for identifying priority management and conservation areas and can serve as a first step in conservation planning.

Building resilience in dryland ecosystems: A climate adaptation strategy menu for pinyon–juniper woodlands

Mon, 4 May 2026 14:55:50

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands, one of the most extensive mature and old-growth woodland types in the Western United States, provide critical ecological, cultural, and economic benefits but face increasing threats from climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species, and pests. We developed the PJ Woodland Climate Adaptation Management Menu, a decision support tool designed to guide adaptive, climate-informed management of PJ ecosystems, particularly within the Colorado Plateau ecoregion. The menu was created through an iterative, collaborative process involving literature review, integration of strategies from existing adaptation frameworks, and extensive input from scientists, land managers, and community partners during workshops and focus groups. The menu links specific, evidence-based approaches to each of six broad strategies, including soliciting community input, mitigating disturbance, enhancing and maintaining biodiversity, conserving ecotones, timing actions for optimal outcomes, and accepting climate-driven changes when appropriate. It is intended for use with the Adaptation Workbook to help managers connect local goals and climate vulnerabilities to tailored management tactics. Hypothetical scenarios demonstrate the menu’s application to contrasting PJ woodland conditions, from die-off events to old-growth maintenance. Lessons learned during development underscore the value of early stakeholder engagement, cross-sector collaboration, and balancing diverse ecological objectives. This menu offers a flexible, transferable framework to strengthen climate resilience in PJ woodlands and serves as a model that could improve adaptation planning in other dryland forest ecosystems.

Evaluating approximations of river channel shape using a national cross section database

Legleiter, Carl; Kinzel, Paul — Fri, 1 May 2026 14:00:47

Many hydrologic applications require basic information on the size and shape of river channels, but measuring cross section (XS) geometry in the field or via remote sensing can be costly and often provides only partial coverage. Given these challenges, we capitalized upon an existing data set of 46,971 XS from gaging stations to evaluate various approximations of channel shape. After screening and pre-processing these data, we fit four model types to each XS, including a new approach that involves Stacking PDFs (probability density functions) to Approximate River Channel Shapes (SPARCS). This framework produced depth estimates that closely matched field measurements, with typical cross-sectional area errors <1% and a median R² of 0.77 for comparison of observed and predicted depths. SPARCS model parameters can be interpreted in terms of channel characteristics: mean depth, asymmetry, bar convexity, and flatness of the bed. The model performed well for the XS included in the database, which was biased toward straight, uniform channels conducive to operational streamflow measurement. Neither model parameters nor accuracy were dependent on discharge. We also assessed the potential of SPARCS to fill in measurement gaps and found that although the model can help, the accuracy of inferred depths decreased as the observable fraction of the channel decreased. An important limitation of SPARCS is that mid-channel bars or multi-threaded morphologies cannot be produced. Graphical tools can help visualize how model parameters affect simulated river forms. SPARCS could facilitate satellite-based discharge estimation by providing prior information on channel shape.

Amphibian use of recently created wetlands in the Palouse region of northern Idaho, USA

Grinder, Rolllie; Peterson, Charles; Garton, Edward; Bauder, Javan — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 15:37:35

Human development has resulted in the loss of natural wetlands in many regions and thus has led to amphibian habitat loss. Human-constructed wetlands are increasingly prevalent, particularly in human-modified landscapes, and can be used as breeding habitats by amphibians. It is important to identify factors influencing amphibian use of constructed wetlands to guide future wetland creation efforts. We examined wetland- and landscape-level factors influencing the presence and reproduction of native amphibians in 33 recently created (2–11 yold) wetlands within an urban-agricultural interface in northern Idaho, USA. We recorded wetland age, perimeter vegetation, and percentage of surrounding land cover as covariates and modeled detection and occupancy using Bayesian Multi-scale Occupancy Models for the three species we detected: Sierran Treefrog (Pseudacris sierra), Colombia Spotted Frog (Rana luteiventris), and Long-Toed Salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum). Our results indicate that these three species can rapidly colonize recently created wetlands in an urban-agricultural interface. The effects of wetland- and landscape-scale features varied across species. Colombia Spotted Frog occupancy was greatest in older wetlands with some evidence for a negative association with more urbanized landscapes. Long Toed Salamanders and Sierran Treefrogs were not associated with wetland age but also showed some evidence of negative associations with urbanization. Long-Toed Salamanders showed evidence of using less vegetated wetlands while Sierran Treefrogs showed evidence of using more vegetated wetlands. Our results are consistent with multiple studies showing that wetlands in human-modified landscapes can provide amphibian breeding habitat, and they suggest that including vegetation plantings within recently created wetlands may promote amphibian colonization. Anecdotal observations also indicate that designing wetlands with sufficient hydroperiod for metamorphoses may be important for ensuring that newly created wetlands benefit amphibian populations.

Socio-ecological impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles urban fires on communities, neighborhoods, and homes

Norlen, Carl; Sharma, Sadikshya; Escobedo, Francisco — Fri, 1 May 2026 14:59:05

Human settlements are increasingly being impacted by urban fires initiated by wildfires. Metrics such as area burned and number of structures destroyed are important, but research often overlooks the socio-ecological complexity of urban fires. We study the impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles fires on two communities at the neighborhood and residential parcel scales. Geospatial analyses and econometric modeling explore the relationships between urban morphology, socio-demographic factors, and home destruction. Here we show that socio-ecological characteristics and scale are key in parsing the dynamics of urban fires. Also, new socio-demographic populations are being affected and urban morphology metrics are more important than vegetation cover. Despite parallels with 19^th and early 20^th century urban conflagrations, understanding these re-emerging urban fires requires transdisciplinary approaches and unique metrics. Investigating the socio-ecological scales and dynamics of urban fires provides a valuable next step towards understanding and adapting to the risk associated with these disasters.

Habitat and landscape variables affecting Corbicula fluminea presence in the upper Savannah River drainage (USA)

Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:57:10

Aquatic invasive species (AIS) are amongst the greatest threats to native aquatic biodiversity. These introduced species often thrive in human-altered environments and spread through human-mediated pathways to invade new watersheds. Corbicula fluminea is a freshwater bivalve native to southeastern Asia first introduced in North America in Seattle, WA, in 1938 and has spread to nearly every major watershed in the southeastern United States. In the present study, we use an information theoretic framework to compare landscape and stream habitat variables associated with C. fluminea presence across five HUC10 watersheds in the upper Savannah River basin of South Carolina and Georgia, USA. Predictive models included landscape-level and site-level habitat variables associated with agricultural, developed, and forested landscapes. Models with variables associated with forested and developed landscapes were the top performing models based on AICc values. In top performing models C. fluminea presence was positively correlated with increased stream width, but negatively correlated with substrates dominated by cobble. Lower performing models highlight positive correlations with the presence of upstream reservoirs and increased developed landscape surrounding the site. Identification of habitat and landscape correlates with invasive species presence may lead to more efficient introduction monitoring efforts for conservation managers.

A hierarchical approach for finding undiscovered populations of an endangered bumble bee

Thu, 7 May 2026 15:00:45

Understanding the distributions of rare species is necessary to guide monitoring and inform species recovery efforts. The rusty patched bumble bee (RPBB; Bombus affinis, Cresson) is an endangered species with an extant, known distribution centered around urban areas of the Midwestern United States. We tested a novel approach for finding undocumented RPBBs outside of urban centers and estimated the species occurrence at two scales that are relevant to management. We confirmed presence of RPBBs at 54% of the sampled 100 km² grid cells where the species was previously undocumented, expanding the species’ known distribution by 5700 km². After accounting for imperfect detection, our occupancy model estimated the number of occupied grid cells was 67 of 105 sampled grids, suggesting our methods were effective for finding undiscovered RPBB sites. Occupancy within 100 km² grids was positively related to the number of occupied neighboring units but was not related to the area of developed land within 100km² grid cells or smaller subunits (i.e. 3.14 ha patches or roadside transects). We highlight the utility of our approach for guiding future survey efforts by identifying an additional 145 grid cells where the occupancy status of RPBB is unknown but we predict a relatively high likelihood of RPBB occurrence. Our approach can be extended to find undiscovered RPBB sites in other areas and applied to other bee species where occurrence information is lacking outside of their core distribution.

Springtime formation of laminated soil carbonate rinds and changes in fluvial terrace soils on orbital timescales at Rio Mesa, Utah, USA

Fri, 1 May 2026 13:21:06

Laminated soil carbonate rinds are a Quaternary paleoclimate archive whose isotope composition is linked to soil formation conditions. At Rio Mesa, Utah (USA), we investigated the fidelity of rind records in a river terrace setting by determining the seasonal timing of rind formation and testing for inter-record replication. We infer soil carbonate formed in the spring season, contrasting with our prior inference of summer formation at Teasdale, Utah, ≈200 km distant. This apparent discrepancy occurs because of differences in the timing of the largest annual infiltration (spring vs. summer). At Rio Mesa, modern soil data show that soil carbonate δ¹³C would have high values (−2 to 2‰ VPDB) regardless of seasonal activity of C₃ versus C₄ plants because respiration rate is a strong control. We accordingly suggest reassessment of published records interpreting soil carbonate δ¹³C only via C₃ versus C₄ plant abundance. Three rind δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O records generally replicated. Intriguingly, rind δ¹³C may inversely correlate with summer insolation, evidence for global-scale influence on soils. Rind δ¹⁸O is not as clearly correlated with published western USA paleoclimate records, potentially due to regional differences in climate and because rinds record soil-specific processes. Our results support the fidelity of the soil carbonate rind paleoarchive and suggest that because rind formation seasonality is intimately tied to infiltration seasonality, spatial transects of rind records might be used to delineate boundaries between areas dominated by spring and summer infiltration, permitting reconstruction of the geographic extent of large-scale hydrologic phenomena such as the North American Monsoon.

Modeling chronic wasting disease transmission risk in mule deer related to habitat characteristics

Fri, 1 May 2026 13:56:46

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease of cervids that spreads to uninfected individuals through direct transmission (contact with infected individuals), vertical transmission (from mother to offspring), or indirect transmission (exposure to contaminated environments). The risk of indirect transmission is unevenly distributed on the landscape, and risk levels are expected to be controlled by patterns of habitat use by infected and uninfected individuals as well as environmental properties that alter the length of time prions remain infectious and available for uptake. Despite evidence from controlled or laboratory studies identifying environmental properties likely to affect patterns of CWD prion locations on the landscape, it remains difficult to connect mechanisms to realized increased or decreased risk of disease transmission, and few studies have attempted to detect patterns of different CWD risk in different environments. Using data from GPS-collared mule deer in Wyoming that were CWD-tested annually, we constructed models predicting annual probability of disease transmission contingent on environmental properties extracted from GPS use points. We compared models that emphasized different pathways of disease transmission by including or excluding sets of covariates that described deer density, habitat selection, and covariates expected to affect prion persistence in the environment. Results indicated that key habitat characteristics often selected by mule deer, such as proximity to secondary roads, were also associated with higher risk of testing positive for CWD, which supports the hypothesis that disease risk was correlated to patterns of habitat use by deer. We also found increased risk associated with spatial properties that were not selected-for by deer, such as areas where topography collects moisture, suggesting that prion retention mechanisms also play a role in risk. Incorporating these spatially-varying risk factors into our understanding of CWD transmission and outbreak progression can support managers in designing data collection and disease management strategies.

Characterizing the long-term (1981–2023) temperature and precipitation dynamics in the Trans-Mountain regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 14:27:38

Mountain regions are highly climate-sensitive, yet long-term observational evidence of elevation and seasonal climate dynamics in Central Asia remains limited. This study examines spatiotemporal trends in temperature (Tmean, Tmax, Tmin, and diurnal temperature range [DTR]) and precipitation across Kazakhstan’s transmountain regions using 74 meteorological stations (1981–2023). Data were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, stratified across six elevation zones from lowlands (<400 m) to high mountains (>1500 m). Results reveal a robust, spatially coherent warming signal across all zones. Annual Tmean increased at a median rate of ~0.30 °C decade⁻¹, peaking at 0.36 °C decade⁻¹ above 1500 m, corresponding to an absolute increase exceeding 1.5 °C. Warming exhibited strong seasonal and diurnal asymmetries. Spring warmed most rapidly, with Tmean increasing >0.60 °C decade⁻¹ (approaching 3 °C total). Winter warming was driven by Tmin increases (up to 0.44 °C decade⁻¹), causing widespread DTR contraction, whereas summer warming was driven by Tmax increases, expanding DTR at higher elevations. Tmin showed the strongest elevation amplification overall. In stark contrast, precipitation trends were weak, spatially heterogeneous, and largely non-significant. Annual changes ranged from −6.63 to +14.35 mm decade⁻¹, with seasonal tendencies indicating modest, non-significant winter/spring wetting and summer drying. Ultimately, the results demonstrate a profound decoupling between strong, elevation-dependent warming and weak precipitation changes. The acute amplification of temperature, particularly during spring and summer at high elevations, has severe implications for snowmelt timing, glacier mass balance, evapotranspiration demand, and long-term water security in Kazakhstan.

Efficiency of down-looking cameras for detecting round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) over varying substrates in laboratory microcosms

Thu, 28 May 2026 14:01:29

Since invading the Laurentian Great Lakes in the late 1980s, round goby Neogobius melanostomus have become a dominant benthic prey species, resulting in a need to accurately monitor their population abundance to inform fisheries management. Camera-based methods for assessing round goby abundances have gained popularity, but their efficiencies for detecting round goby are poorly understood. We evaluated the efficiency of down-looking color monocular cameras for detecting round goby presence in microcosm enclosures with known numbers of fish. Detection efficiencies were compared between sand and cobble substrate during daylight hours using a generalized linear mixed-effects model. After accounting for trial effects, enclosure placement, and within-replicate temporal autocorrelation, round goby detection efficiency was 98.6% over sand (95% confidence limit (CL): 98.0–99.0%), and 55.3% over a single layer of cobble substrate (CL: 48.6–61.8%). The large difference in detectability between cobble and sand suggests that camera-based estimates of round goby abundances are likely to be biased low and have lower relative precision in high-structure habitats, but may be largely unbiased in low-structure habitats. Despite much lower relative detection efficiencies of cameras in high-structure cobble habitats, the efficiencies reported here still compare favorably to conventional methods like otter and beam trawling. Our results provide initial quantitative bounds on the possible degree of negative bias in camera-based estimates of round goby abundances in different substrates, but require further field verification across the diversity of substrates, interstitial infilling, and other structural attributes of habitat found in the Great Lakes.

2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 15:20:27

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first version of the PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and therefore this 2025 update includes over 20 years of new geologic, geophysical, and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. However, this is the first NSHM in which we: (1) apply an inversion methodology to subduction interface fault sources in the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) model; (2) develop scaled backbone median ground-motion models and independent aleatory variability models that are applied in the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model; and (3) calculate epistemic uncertainty related to alternative scenarios in the ERF and GMC models for all grid points in the study region. Long-term time-independent mean hazard calculations were performed for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudospectral acceleration at 21 spectral periods from 0.01- to 10.0-s, for eight National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site conditions ranging from V_S30 = 150 to 1500 m/s, and for 2%, 5%, and 10% in 50-year probabilities of exceedance (return periods of 2475, 975, and 475 years, respectively). Epistemic uncertainty, in the form of selected percentiles, is also provided for a suite of test sites and all grid points in the study region for limited periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. Selected results, including comparisons with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, are shown and discussed for selected periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. When comparing the 2025 PRVI NSHM with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, hazard is generally higher at shorter periods and lower at longer periods, as a result of updates in both ERF and GMC models. The 2025 PRVI NSHM is applicable for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years.

Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: Geography, soils and climate explain species-specific mortality

Wed, 20 May 2026 15:25:15

Implicit in the construction of seed transfer zones (STZs) are the assumptions that plant populations are adapted to their home climates and that transferring native seed across climate gradients risks maladaptation and poor performance. However, plants are adapted to multiple aspects of their environments that are often excluded from STZ development. Here, we used models integrating geographic distance, climate distance and soil metrics to predict plant mortality in an experimental garden for three restoration-relevant species in the southwestern United States: Bouteloua curtipendula, Heterotheca villosa and Sporobolus cryptandrus. Overall, climate distance explained mortality better than geographic distance, but increasing climate distance was not consistently associated with higher mortality. In contrast, mortality always increased with geographic distance. Species responded idiosyncratically to environmental gradients such as soil texture and pH, indicating that incorporating site-specific variables beyond climate can improve predictions of survival. Finally, seed sources of H. villosa from hotter, drier climates exhibited improved survival during abnormally hot, dry conditions at the experimental site, whereas no consistent pattern emerged for the two grass species. Collectively, our results suggest that seeding strategies extending beyond climate matching alone may better support restoration outcomes when species-specific guidance is unavailable.

Cumulative effects of multiple stressors on marine mammals: Elephant seals as a model system

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:12:10

Noise exposure is a potential stressor for free-ranging marine mammals and is often studied in the absence of other environmental factors. Here, a multi-investigator, interdisciplinary effort was undertaken to examine the response of elephant seals to multiple stressors. An integrated physiological and ecological approach was taken, including immunology, stress physiology, toxicology, animal behavior, population biology, and life history theory, to examine the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple stressors in elephant seals. While we measured the response of individual animals, a population response can be predicted by incorporating these results into the long-term data on elephant seal demographics.

Uranium—Deposits, production and resources, market dynamics, and supply chain risks

Mihalasky, Mark — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 18:39:05

Introduction

Interest in nuclear power for the generation of electricity has risen with the increase in the need for more diverse baseload power, enhanced energy security, and the development of new technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), which could provide power for remote areas, industrial applications, and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy received $2.7 billion in congressional funding to bolster the domestic uranium production and nuclear fuel supply chain and address reliance on imports from foreign suppliers. In 2025, the U.S. Government issued several Executive and Secretary’s orders aimed at revitalizing the U.S. nuclear sector. If SMRs are to be as widely deployed in the United States and worldwide as envisioned, demand for uranium (nuclear reactor fuel) will likely increase.

After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the market spot price of uranium began a decline, followed by a decrease in U.S. and global uranium exploration and mine development expenditures that led to a uranium supply deficit until 2020, when prices started to recover, prompting a resurgence in uranium exploration and development. In January of 2024, the uranium spot price rose to a 17-year high $106 (U.S. dollars) per pound of U3O8 (triuranium oxide, commonly known as “yellowcake”), which is expected to increase uranium exploration, mine development, and uranium production domestically and worldwide.

Cyanobacterial bloom occurrence and emergency department visits for asthma or wheeze, Wisconsin, 2017–2019

Thu, 7 May 2026 15:56:42

Background:

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) pose risks to human and animal health.

Methods:

We investigated the relationship between cyanoHABs and asthma or wheeze-related emergency department (ED) visits near three Wisconsin cities (Green Bay, Madison, and Oshkosh) during 2017–2019. CyanoHAB exposure was approximated using the Cyanobacterial Assessment Network remotely sensed satellite indicator of cyanobacterial biomass, a chlorophyl algorithm (Chl_BS) aggregated by water-adjacent ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA), and distance weighted from the nearest waterbody. Weekly counts of ED visits for asthma or wheeze were aggregated by ZCTA. Poisson generalized linear models estimated the association between the weekly number of ED visits and weekly Chl_BS, adjusting for maximum temperature, dewpoint, fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), month, and correlation within ZCTA.

Results:

During 2017–2019, 7,057 ED visits for asthma or wheeze occurred in the study area (42 ZCTAs). Peaks in Chl_BS occurred between June and October, with higher values in Lake Winnebago and Lake Mendota compared to Green Bay. Chl_BS was not associated with ED visits for asthma or wheeze (adjusted rate ratio = 1.00, 95% confidence interval = 0.99, 1.00), and the presence of onshore winds did not change this result. Monthly aggregations of ED visits and Chl_BS showed a monotonic trend between increasing Chl_BS and ED visits during July–September.

Conclusion:

This study demonstrates the utility of remote sensing data in environmental health research. Future studies could explore individual-level exposure and outcomes to refine health risks associated with cyanoHABs.

Development of a two-stage lifecycle model to inform the trap-and-haul program for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the Lewis River, Washington

Plumb, John; Perry, Russell — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:56:24

Restoration of salmon populations in the upper Lewis River Basin, Washington, depends on a trap-and-haul program owing to the Lewis River Hydroelectric Project (hereinafter referred to as “Project”) operated by PacifiCorp and Cowlitz Public Utilities District (hereinafter referred to as “Utilities”), which has been a barrier to salmon passage since the 1930s. Thus, sustaining the Oncorhynchus kisutch (Walbaum, 1792; coho salmon) population upstream from the Project currently depends on two fundamental factors: (1) the collection of upstream migrating adult coho salmon at Merwin Dam, the lowermost dam within the Project, and transporting them by truck to spawn above Swift Dam, the uppermost dam within the Project; and (2) the collection of out-migrating juvenile coho salmon at the downstream collection facility at Swift Dam for transport and release below the Project. The reintroduction program began once the downstream collection facility at Swift Dam was commissioned in late 2012, with the first year of transport data being collected in 2013. Over the past decade, the Utilities have been collecting data on juvenile outmigrants and adult fish returns at the dams. The need to construct a lifecycle model for Lewis River anadromous fish was identified by the Lewis River Aquatic Technical Subgroup, with the understanding that many years (more than 15 years) of data collection are needed to adequately measure the lifecycle production of salmon. The U.S. Geological Survey was contracted to develop and apply the model to past data at the Lewis River dams to help inform future data collection and provide a framework that can be updated annually to measure trap-and-haul program performance within a lifecycle context.

Because coho salmon can live as long as 5 years, estimating demographic parameters for coho salmon populations over their lifecycle requires at least 10 or more years of data collection. Over the past decade, PacifiCorp has been collecting data on fish collection efficiency and the numbers of adult and juvenile salmon transported around the Lewis River dams, making this an ideal time to formulate a lifecycle model that can guide future data collection efforts and provide preliminary information to resource managers. The goal of the statistical lifecycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: (1) the freshwater production from escapement of adults released upstream from Swift Dam, and the collection of downstream migrating juveniles at the downstream passage facility at Swift Dam; and (2) the smolt-to-adult survival from the time of collection at Swift Dam to their return as adults. We used the Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of spawners (Beverton and Holt, 1957). This approach allowed us to test for density dependence at current spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. Productivity was then expressed as a function of the number of juveniles collected and transported downstream from the Project. Because juvenile fish collection efficiency (FCE) directly affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration, FCE is a primary determinant of fish production. Consequently, the modeling framework is well suited to evaluate the performance of trap-and-haul programs within a lifecycle context.

The objectives of this study were to (1) gather and collate available data on adult and juvenile coho salmon at Merwin and Swift Dams; (2) quantify adult escapement, juvenile abundance, and the age at outmigration and adult return; (3) describe, formulate and fit the integrated population model to the data; and (4) summarize our findings, identify data gaps, and identify opportunities for future studies that could improve model estimation and inference. Our key findings were: (1) over and above the number of spawning females, FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon above Swift Dam; (2) smolt-to-adult return (SAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 4.5 percent and ranging as high as 12.9 percent; and (3) juvenile capacity upstream from Swift Dam was difficult to estimate due to the limited range in spawning females over the time series of data, suggesting the model may be improved by collecting data at higher spawner abundances. In addition, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 64 juveniles per spawner. Because the two-stage lifecycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in rivers versus the ocean, the model estimates may help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at Swift Dam plays in the recovery and sustainability of Lewis River coho salmon. By providing the model with (1) more years of data, (2) higher numbers of spawning females, and (3) data on age at juvenile migration in relation to age at adult return, greater certainty in the estimates of capacity and SAR can be attained. Ultimately, information provided by the model may assist in the evaluation and continued improvement of the current trap-and-haul program to support anadromous fishes in the Lewis River Basin.

Sustainability trade-offs at the nexus of solar energy, agriculture, and biodiversity

Tue, 9 Jun 2026 18:29:30

A rapid transition to renewable energy is necessary for achieving global decarbonization targets, but siting conflicts, particularly beyond the built environment, remain a key barrier to sustainable development. At the same time, climate-induced pressures on biodiversity intensify the socio-ecological trade-offs within the energy-agriculture-biodiversity nexus. Using New York State as a case study, we assess the geographic implications of utility-scale solar energy development under competing land-use priorities. We apply a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model to evaluate solar buildout across three distinct scenarios: minimizing cost, prioritizing agricultural preservation, and conserving biodiversity, employing a lexicographic hierarchy to enforce a strict ordering of stakeholder priorities. Results indicate that New York can meet its mid-century decarbonization goals by deploying 46,216 MW_dc of solar energy, however, achieving this goal involves considerable land-use trade-offs. A cost-minimizing scenario disproportionately targets pasture and hay lands (>40,000 ha), nearly half of which overlap with grassland bird habitat and broader biodiversity areas. Prioritizing agriculture spares ∼80 % of farmland but creates potential for deforestation of over 41,000 ha. Biodiversity-conscious siting avoids ecologically sensitive areas and increases the annualized total costs by 0.17 %, indicating economic feasibility. Our findings highlight the need for spatially informed, integrative land-use strategies that reconcile climate goals with ecological and agricultural values. By linking geospatial optimization with socio-ecological criteria, this work contributes a transferable framework to inform just and ecologically responsible energy transitions in multifunctional landscapes, offering new insights into how geography can advance sustainable development.

Fish body midline segmentation using binary search

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:07:26

Body and caudal fin locomotion is ubiquitous in aquatic vertebrates, and kinematic models describing it are used in robotics, biomechanics and fisheries research. This paper presents a new algorithm to translate continuous body midlines of fish into a series of interconnected segments by identifying favorable joint positions along the body. The algorithm employs binary search to generate parsimonious kinematic models, aiming at minimizing the number of segments yet keeping approximation error below a user-defined threshold. To achieve this, the algorithm maximizes the length of each segment by determining the most distal joint position through repetitive shrinking of the search space. Theoretical and empirical analysis using two different datasets show that the binary search algorithm is substantially faster when compared to segment growing algorithm, which employs linear search to generate its models. There is four-fold improvement in computation time when generating models with less than 10 segments, which are typically sufficient to describe fish and fish-inspired robot movements. Furthermore, the multi-segment models generated by the binary search algorithm matched the ground truth models obtained through dynamic programming in over 97% of cases, and on average, contained one fewer segment than those produced by the Ramer–Douglas–Peucker algorithm, which is widely used in curvature simplification tasks. Our findings suggest that the binary search algorithm provides a computationally efficient approach for generating compact kinematic models and may facilitate the analysis of large datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution.

Spatial heterogeneity of salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise: Dual controls of hydrological setting and salinity regime

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 14:59:21

Salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) is typically assessed using point measurements of vertical accretion, neglecting three-dimensionality of geomorphic evolution and spatial variability. Recent studies suggest links between vertical and horizontal vulnerability, with differences between oligohaline and polyhaline marshes, yet these relationships remain untested in estuary-marsh systems. Here we combine geospatial analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate how unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR), a metric of marsh degradation, relates to elevation across hydrological regions and salinity regimes in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, the largest lagoonal estuary in U.S. We show that at given normalized elevation, UVVR decreases across hydrological regions and salinity regimes from offshore to inland. UVVR-elevation relationship varies systematically with both hydrological setting and salinity regime, with hydrology exerting stronger influence. These findings challenge the assumption of a universal marsh deterioration trajectory and underscore the need to account for spatial heterogeneity when predicting responses to SLR.

Dynamic drainage reorganization in Eastern Tibet: Insights from the Yangtze River first bend

Fri, 1 May 2026 15:26:27

The modern drainage network of eastern Tibet is widely believed to have developed through a series of river capture and flow reversal events; however, the timing and mechanisms driving this reorganization remain contentious. Among these events, the river capture that formed the First Bend of the Yangtze River (YFB) stands out as both iconic and particularly debated. Here we present sedimentary provenance data from the Late Miocene–Quaternary Dali Basin, located south of the YFB, which indicate that a southward-flowing Jinsha River (i.e., the present-day upper Yangtze River) sourced sediment to the Dali basin at ∼7.4–6.4 Ma in a drainage configuration different from that of today. Because this interval postdates the initial establishment of a near-modern Jinsha River system prior to the Miocene, our results imply at least two discrete fluvial reorganizations occurred at the YFB—one preceding ∼7.4 Ma and another following ∼6.4 Ma. By integrating these findings with landscape evolution modeling, we infer that the initiation of rapid uplift of the Yulong-Haba Mountains and the Diancang Shan may have been responsible for these drainage reorganizations. These results underscore that Cenozoic drainage systems on the eastern Tibetan Plateau have evolved dynamically on a short timescale of ∼10⁵–10⁶-year, rather than remaining in a long-term stationary configuration on ∼10⁷-year timescales.

Geophysical architecture and geochronology of the Neoarchean Mentor anorthosite intrusive complex, northwestern Minnesota: Largest anorthosite complex of the Superior Province?

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:02:08

The Neoarchean Mentor anorthosite intrusive complex (MAIC) lies within the Wawa subprovince in northwestern Minnesota, in a region where the Wawa, Quetico, and Wabigoon subprovinces are juxtaposed in close proximity. Archean rocks are entirely concealed, and interpretations are developed from aeromagnetic, gravity, and borehole samples. The MAIC includes both anorthosite (dense, weakly magnetized) and oxide-rich gabbro (strongly magnetized) lithologies. Anorthosite is coarse-grained to megacrystic, intensely altered, and locally brecciated. Pervasive epidote alteration enhanced the density of the anorthosite via introduction of higher-density mineral assemblages, explaining why the MAIC produces a significant gravity high. Oxide-rich gabbro forms a border phase of the MAIC and has potential for vanadium, chromium, and titanium mineralization, and produces a strong aeromagnetic high. The MAIC is interpreted to extend over an area of 640 km², making it the largest known anorthosite complex of the Superior Province, as measured by preserved areal extent. Modeling indicates the MAIC extends more than 6 km into the subsurface. A new Pb–Pb zircon age of 2737.2 ± 4.5 Ma is interpretated as the crystallization age of anorthosite within the MAIC, showing that the MAIC formed well before the ca. 2690 Ma Shebandowanian orogeny, and raising new questions about correlations with other parts of the Wawa subprovince. A low-density batholith, here informally called the Fertile batholith, is interpreted to intrude the southern part of the MAIC. A new Pb–Pb zircon age of 2701.1 ± 6 Ma is interpreted as the magmatic age of the Fertile batholith.

Non-native invasive beetle alters structure of a riparian bird community in a biodiversity hotspot

Kus, Barbara E.; Yee, Julie; Mendia, Shannon M. — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:17:01

A serious emerging threat to southern California riparian ecosystems is the invasive shot hole borer (Euwallacea spp.; SHB), a non-native beetle that cultivates a pathogenic fungus that kills trees of 66 reproductive host species. We examined the response of the bird community at the Tijuana River, California, to a massive SHB infestation in 2015 using data from a Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) station operated during 7 pre-infestation (2009-15) and 7 post-infestation (2017-23) years. Species richness did not change between pre- and immediate (2017-18) post-SHB periods, but average annual adult captures declined by 27%. Among the species making up ≥ 5% of the total individuals caught in any one year (n=15), abundance declined by up to 76% in 10 species, including those most abundant at the station (Bushtit (Psaltriparus minimus), Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia), Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas), Orange-crowned Warbler (Leiothlypis celata), and Wilson’s Warbler (Cardellina pusilla)). Mean annual abundance increased slightly for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo (Vireo bellii pusillus) and Northern Yellow Warbler (Setophaga aestiva) and doubled for House Finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) and Western Warbling-Vireo (V. swainsoni). We compared species trends at the Tijuana River to those at a nearby uninfested MAPS station on the Santa Margarita River to isolate the effect of SHB from other factors influencing annual abundance. The contribution of SHB to changes in abundance post-SHB was high (63-80%) for 7 declining species, moderate (22-45%) for 4 species, and weakly to moderately positive (18-40%) for 3 species. By 2019, the SHB infestation at the Tijuana River had abated and canopy cover was recovering through resprouting of mature willows (Salix spp.) and seedling establishment. Bird abundance tracked this regrowth, with all of the species strongly affected by SHB increasing between 2019-23. The rapid recovery of the Tijuana River habitat and the associated response by the bird community are encouraging signs that the threat of the invasive shot hole borer to regional biodiversity may not be as great as originally anticipated.

Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 2025 Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake and updated length scaling of supershear earthquakes

Tue, 19 May 2026 15:48:31

The 2025 M_w 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake ruptured 475 km of the central Sagaing fault and is the longest continental strike-slip rupture on record. The observed rupture length is 1.6–4.7 times the value expected (100–300 km) from existing length-magnitude scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes. The earthquake resulted from shallow dextral faulting and ruptured bilaterally with supershear speeds south of the epicenter, rupturing close to three major cities in Myanmar and exposing over six million people to violent or extreme shaking. We report on the surface rupture character, length, and slip distribution based on sub-pixel correlation of Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Planet Dove (3 m) optical images and visual analysis of SkySat and WorldView (0.3–0.5 m) optical images. The earthquake had moderate surface slip (average = 3.3 m, maximum = 5.6 m, 25–75% range = 3.0–4.0 m), narrow deformation zone width (1–10 pixels in sub-pixel correlation and up to 190 meters for the detailed surface rupture mapping), and simple fault geometry (no stepovers or large changes in strike, 87% of the rupture that was mapped in detail is single-stranded). We attribute the extreme length of the Mandalay earthquake to supershear rupture speed, simple fault geometry, narrow down-dip width, and moderate surface slip. Based on a compilation of 25 supershear strike-slip earthquakes (M_w 6.5–8.6; 1979–2025), we find that the rupture length of supershear earthquakes does not fit empirical scaling relationships for strike-slip earthquakes that predict length from magnitude. A length-magnitude scaling relationship based on supershear earthquakes has a best fit of log₁₀(surface rupture length) = 0.89 M_w – 4.44, indicating that supershear earthquakes tend to be longer than their subshear counterparts for any given magnitude and thus may expose a greater population to shaking.

Modeling future groundwater depletion to evaluate sustainability goals set under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in the critically overdrafted basins of the Central Valley, California, USA (2020–2070)

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:13:52

In 2014, California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) mandated local agencies to devise and implement groundwater sustainability plans to address critically overdrafted conditions throughout the state's aquifers. However, the feasibility of these agencies' sustainability goals has not previously been assessed through a regional-scale, integrative lens. Here, we develop and analyze a novel, basin-wide database of 936 sustainability indicator wells located within Central Valley subbasins designated as critically overdrafted, most of which lie in the San Joaquin Valley. Our database shows 2040 groundwater elevation goals vary widely from 60 m above to 80 m below 2020 levels, with variability within and between adjacent subbasins. To evaluate the feasibility of achieving these goals, we coupled the database with a regional hydrologic model (Central Valley Hydrologic Model version 2) and simulated multiple future pumping scenarios. Results show that under increased groundwater demand, 60%–70% of indicator wells may fail to meet their 2040 goals. Even a 50% reduction from 2020 demand levels leaves nearly 40% of wells failing to meet their sustainability thresholds by 2040. Baseline models show that by 2070, up to 70% of wells could fail to meet their goals due to large-scale, spatially connected regions of groundwater depletion. This integrated framework, linking the first region-wide compilation of SGMA indicator wells with a regional groundwater model, demonstrates that many local sustainability goals may be unattainable with substantial (up to 50%) reductions in pumping. Additional management interventions, such as expanded recharge or coordinated demand reductions, may help achieve sustainability goals.

Quantitative mineral resource assessment of lithium pegmatite deposits in the northern Appalachian orogen, USA

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:29:50

Lithium demand is projected to increase more than 48 times by 2040 due to electric vehicle production and other energy storage needs. Most lithium production is outside of the USA, thereby increasing supply chain vulnerability. The combined end use importance and heightened supply risk of lithium make this lightest metallic element a critical commodity to the USA. To mitigate this supply risk, the US Geological Survey is actively assessing lithium deposits in the USA. Herein, we detail an assessment for lithium-mineralized pegmatites in the US northern Appalachian Mountains. Permissive tracts were generated by cross-referencing tectonic and geologic maps and mineral occurrence data with mappable criteria derived from generalized and region-specific lithium pegmatite ore deposit models; tracts were then ranked as having high, medium, or low permissibility. Available geophysical and geochemical data were found to be of minimal utility for this deposit type at the scale of the assessment. The number of undiscovered deposits were estimated and integrated into probabilistic simulations, which included an expanded and updated global grade and tonnage model of pegmatite-hosted lithium ore. The estimated total amount of undiscovered resources for the northern Appalachian Orogen has a median value of 1,410,000 metric tons of Li₂O when considering moderate correlation across sub-regions. At a confidence level of 90%, a resource of at least 90,000 metric tons of Li₂O remains undiscovered, and at a 10% confidence level, a resource of as much as 7,380,000 metric tons Li₂O remains undiscovered. After applying an up-to-date economic filter to convert median contained lithium to recoverable material, a correlated total of 900,000 metric tons of Li₂O may be economically extractable, equating to enough Li₂O to provide the current annual US lithium supply deficit (presently obtained through net imports) for 127 years at 2025 rates of apparent consumption. This period of provision will inevitably shorten with projected increasing consumption rates, emphasizing that further research could be completed to better delineate regions of high lithium resource potential and support exploration and domestic production.

The role of groundwater in contributing to surface water salinization in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 15:13:37

Freshwater salinization impacts the availability of water for human use and ecosystem needs worldwide. It has been estimated that total dissolved solids (TDS) in the Colorado River Basin cause $350 million/year in damages and substantial resources are devoted to reducing TDS loading to streams. This study describes the development and application of coupled watershed models that enable TDS source tracking through the subsurface and across the landscape at a seasonal timestep for 35 years in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Results indicate that, on average, 75% of TDS loading to streams originates as baseflow, and 50% of loading is lagged in delivery by longer than one season. Snowmelt was identified as a dominant process controlling the transport of lagged TDS to streams. This approach informs when and where TDS mitigation efforts may be effective in a watershed that serves as a critical water supply for the southwestern United States.

Evaluating snow depth measurements from ground-penetrating radar and airborne lidar in boreal forest and tundra environments during the NASA SnowEx 2023 campaign

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:06:55

Snow is a vital component of high-latitude terrestrial systems, but environmental factors (e.g., permafrost) and complex vegetation challenge the accurate measurement of key snowpack properties. We evaluated local-scale ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and large-scale airborne lidar retrievals of snow depth collected during the NASA SnowEx 2023 campaign in tundra and boreal forest environments in Alaska along 44 short (3–12 m) transects. Compared to in situ observations, we identified modest biases for GPR snow depths (bias <0.03 m in tundra, +0.06 m in boreal forests) and larger biases for lidar snow depths in the boreal forests (–0.16 m). At the Upper Kuparuk-Toolik tundra site, lidar snow depths exhibited a small bias (–0.02 m), whereas the bias was much larger at the Arctic Coastal Plain tundra site (+0.19 m). For most sites, biases were primarily related to sub-snow vegetation, tussocks, and seasonally dynamic ground. However, we identified vertical alignment issues with the Arctic Coastal Plain lidar snow depth dataset that likely contributed to the higher bias. The complex ground surface and sub-snow vegetation in these environments present a challenge to established snow depth measurement methods, which needs to be considered when evaluating novel remote sensing approaches.

A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for species diversity in ecology

Qian, Song; Dufour, Mark; Jaffe, Sabrina; Hilling, Corbin; Hintz, William — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 14:13:47

Species diversity is the foundation of many ecological disciplines. This metric is often approximated using species richness and evenness, even though actual richness likely exceeds observations due to imperfect sampling methods. Estimating the “true” species richness, which includes identifying the number of missing species, has intrigued ecologists for decades. We adopted a parametric model that appeared in Fisher et al. (1943), which models the numbers of individuals from different species as random samples from a negative binomial distribution, and developed a Bayesian computational approach to directly estimate the distribution model parameters. The model parameters represent species abundance and evenness, and can be used to derive species richness. We evaluated our parametric approach using (1) a simulation study and (2) three historical data sets. Furthermore, we illustrated the hierarchical modeling approach to combine data from multiple parallel studies using a biannual fishery survey data set. Our parametric model formulation is computationally efficient, and the hierarchical structure facilitates embedding diversity estimation into broader application, such as assessing spatial and temporal trends in species diversity associated with environmental stressors. Additionally, because the two parameters of the negative binomial distribution model represent species abundance and evenness of a community, this parametric approach facilitates a deeper understanding of the ecological systems under study. The negative binomial distribution model works with a wide range of species frequency distribution types. As a result, our emphasis on a parametric model can help us characterize the structure of an ecosystem and provide a greater depth of ecologically meaningful information.

Water volumes, heat flow, and solute discharge from Old Faithful Geyser eruptions, Yellowstone National Park, USA

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 15:01:47

The iconic Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA, has attracted a significant amount of research because of the relative regularity and impressive size of its eruptions. Numerous studies have included observations, measurements, and analyses that informed models of geyser eruptions. However, fundamental quantities, including the associated mass and heat discharged, remain poorly constrained. In April 2025 we measured the volume of water from 45 Old Faithful Geyser eruptions using a portable flume in an outflow channel and specific conductance measurements in the Firehole River. We used high-speed video to perform velocimetry, measured changes in water chemistry to calculate the volume of water evaporated along the outflow channels, and used thermodynamic calculations to estimate the volume of water erupted as steam and to quantify the geyser's heat output. The calculated average volume of water discharged by Old Faithful Geyser in each eruption is 27.9 ± 9.4 m³, with no relation between eruption volume and the length of the preceding eruption interval. Video analysis of the eruption's liquid-dominated phase yields similar volumes of 21–30 m³. The calculated heat flow from the geyser is 2.2–2.4 MW and the average annual discharge of chloride, fluoride, and arsenic are 63 tons, 3.9 tons, and 241 kg, respectively. Average annual silica deposition rate on the geyser cone and along the outflow channels is 7 tons. This study provides a methodology for future studies at geysers worldwide and a baseline for monitoring future activity changes at Old Faithful.

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Pope, Jason; Gordon, Alison; Frederiks, Ryan — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:44:26

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface.

Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study.

Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Historical ice jams and associated environmental conditions on Osoyoos Lake

Sutfin, Nicholas; Breen, Stephen — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:42:39

Ice jams occur regularly at the southern outlet of Osoyoos Lake, which spans the border between the State of Washington and British Columbia, Canada. In recent winters, ice jams caused (1) decreases in downstream discharge that may adversely affect salmon spawning habitat and (2) short-duration lake-level rise that can interfere with lake level management agreements. In response, water managers sought to understand the environmental conditions associated with the historical ice-jam occurrences on Osoyoos Lake. Researchers compiled datasets of discharge, lake level, and air temperature from four meteorological and three hydrologic stations near Oroville, Washington, to determine “ice-jam” or “non-ice-jam” days from 1942 to 2024.

After confirming known ice jams since 1994 using Landsat 8–9 and Sentinel–2 satellite imagery along with discharge, lake level, and air temperature data, researchers designated ice-jam days. They conducted statistical analyses to examine environmental conditions associated with ice-jam occurrences on Osoyoos Lake. Statistical tests indicated significant differences in wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature between ice-jam and non-ice-jam days. A linear discriminant-analysis model correctly predicted 12 of 13 historical ice-jam days since 1994 and determined that ice jams are more likely under westerly and northwesterly winds near or above 10 kilometers per hour (km/h) and minimum temperatures near or below –9.4 degrees Celsius (°C). An analysis of historical discharge suggests that ice jams have occurred since at least the 1940s, but 13 ice jam days occurred in the past decade (2014–2024), exceeding any previous decade. The daily minimum air temperature in the Osoyoos Lake region has increased at a rate of 0.021 °C per year since the 1940s, but ice jams usually occur in winters with colder average temperatures.

Logical data model for hydrographic data based on HY_Features concepts

Mon, 18 May 2026 14:33:53

This report describes background and design of the “hydrofabric data model” which defines logic for implementation of data schemas and software that deals with hydrologic geospatial data. As a “logical” data model, the hydrofabric data model specifies details necessary to support compatibility of data and software that satisfy diverse needs without unnecessarily restricting implementation details. The logic presented in this report is based on concepts defined in WaterML2 Part 3 Surface Hydrology Features Concepts and is designed to serve the needs of a range of hydroscience use cases.

Development of international community standards applicable to hydrofabrics began, prompted by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Hydrology, in 2012 [5] . More than 10 years later, this report documents one aspect of a long-term research and development activity that traces its roots back that far.

This report describes terminology, use cases, and background as context preceding presentation of the logical model and discussion of its design. Three appendices document related data models, an example encoding of the hydrofabric data model, and an artificial schematic and tabular data example. The sections of the report can be accessed in the Clause 5 section.

Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover

Tue, 2 Jun 2026 15:36:59

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one year after fire, is typically the most susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows, the hazard evolves in time and space as the burned area recovers. The recovery trajectory a given burned area will take depends on local climate and weather and can be difficult to predict. Some burned areas recover quickly, whereas others experience debris flows for multiple years after fire. As a result, extending our ability to update debris-flow likelihood estimates and rainfall thresholds based on observed recovery of the burned area would be beneficial. We present a method for multi-year runoff-generated debris-flow hazard assessment that leverages the USGS “M1” debris-flow likelihood model and integrates updated, satellite-derived, normalized burn ratio data to estimate vegetation recovery. We predict recovery-aware rainfall thresholds and validate them against a multi-year debris-flow hazard prediction and could be adapted for use with other debris-flow models that incorporate burn severity data.

The global proliferation of aquatic, benthic Microcoleus: Taxonomy, distribution, toxin production, ecology, and future directions

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 15:20:31

There have been sporadic reports of aquatic, benthic Microcoleus proliferations in freshwater rivers, lakes, and reservoirs for four decades, with reports increasing in frequency over the last twenty years, suggesting a possible rise in their global distribution, frequency, and intensity. Microcoleus can produce anatoxins which are neurotoxic, and ingestion of toxic mats has caused hundreds of dog fatalities and raised serious human and ecological health concerns. This review synthesizes and evaluates current knowledge on Microcoleus distribution, taxonomy, toxin production, toxicity, ecology, environmental drivers, and biotic interactions. Toxin-producing Microcoleus have been reported in at least 18 countries, though many regions have not conducted toxin testing, suggesting a broader but under-reported distribution. Proliferations occur across diverse habitats, including cobble-bedded streams, large sandy rivers, reservoirs, and lakes. Microcoleus proliferations also occur on macrophytes, both in lakes and rivers. Genomic analyses currently classify anatoxin-producing Microcoleus into distinct species, with all known anatoxin-producers isolated from freshwater ecosystems. Anatoxin concentrations vary widely over space and time, within and among waterbodies. While studies on environmental drivers remain limited, research in cobble-bedded rivers suggests that moderate enrichment of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and low dissolved reactive phosphorus concentrations in the water column promote proliferation. Metagenomic approaches have revealed unique nutrient acquisition and storage strategies used by Microcoleus. Key knowledge gaps remain around the environmental and ecological triggers of proliferation, toxin production, genomic diversity and microbial interactions. Addressing these gaps through coordinated, global studies using robust datasets and consistent methods is critical to improve prediction, monitoring, and mitigation of this increasingly widespread public and ecological health threat.

Predicted range shifts of non‐native grasses in response to climate change are influenced by photosynthetic pathway: A case study in the Hawaiian Islands

Mon, 1 Jun 2026 14:08:47

Aim

Grasses comprise three main photosynthetic pathway variants (C₃-BOP, C₃-PACMAD and C₄-PACMAD hereafter referred to as C₄). We sought to confirm climate niche differences among these photosynthetic pathway variants and assessed whether predicted non-native grass range shift patterns with climate change differ among photosynthetic pathway variants.

Location

Hawaiian Islands.

Methods

We used a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach that uses global occurrence records to inform local SDM based on local (Hawaiian Islands) occurrences. We compared climate niches and projected climate-driven range shifts, assuming moderate climate change (RCP 4.5, end of century), among 22 non-native grasses representing C₃-BOP, C₃-PACMAD and C₄ photosynthetic pathway variants.

Results

C₄ grasses exhibited the warmest temperature niches on average, but did not differ substantially in rainfall niche versus C₃-BOP grasses. C₃-PACMAD species averaged high suitability across a broad range of temperatures and rainfall conditions, except extreme aridity. In response to projected climate change, C₄ grasses had projected range increases. C₃-BOP grasses typically responded with net range decreases, while C₃-PACMAD grasses had variable range responses. However, patterns were contingent on elevation: for instance, the projected expansion of C₄ grasses was generally limited to elevations below 2000 m, with the largest increases in areas up to ~750 m. Areas of greatest reduction for C₃-BOP and C₃-PACMAD were projected at 750–1900 m and 100–1100 m elevation, respectively. Above 2000 m, range increases were projected for both C₃ grass variants.

Main Conclusions

Our projections suggest that non-native C₄ grasses pose the greatest risk for increasing spread and impacts under RCP 4.5, while certain C₃-PACMAD grasses may endanger valuable high-elevation habitats. Photosynthetic pathway may be a useful component of weed risk assessment to evaluate how species may respond to climate change as similar range response patterns may be expected for other non-native grasses in other tropical and subtropical regions.

Morphometric properties of the CP-21 landing site on the Moon at Mons Gruithuisen Gamma

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 13:34:29

Characterizing terrain surface properties is an essential step in assessing the feasibility of landing successfully at a location on a planetary surface. Slopes and terrain ruggedness index (TRI) values derived from high-resolution (2 m pixel⁻¹) digital terrain models provided important constraints in selecting the landing site for the upcoming Payloads and Research Investigations on the Surface of the Moon program as part of the Commercial Lunar Payload Services task order CP-21 mission. The selected landing site needed to balance safety requirements with the ability to achieve the science and exploration goals of the Lunar Vulkan Imaging and Spectroscopy Explorer payload. In this study, we compare several morphometric parameters in the context of the CP-21 landing site on Mons Gruithuisen Gamma, or the Gamma dome, and quantify the information they convey about lunar surface properties to assess their utility for future landing site evaluation. TRI was found to be a useful metric for assessing landing site safety. Metrics that better decouple slope and surface roughness, the vector ruggedness measure and the standard deviation of slope, provided additional information about surface characteristics and textures such as the degree to which roughness is isotropic.