USGS Publications Warehouse

Towards affordable wetland evapotranspiration monitoring using the Variance-Bowen Ratio method: Insights from three contrasting wetlands

Wed, 8 Apr 2026 15:44:30

Accurate measurement of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for sustainable water management. Standard methods such as eddy covariance (EC) are costly, while alternatives such as surface renewal are cheaper but require calibration and complex data processing. This study evaluates the utility of the Variance-Bowen Ratio (VBR) method for estimating ET across three California’s wetlands. Using data from 2023, half-hourly latent heat flux (λE) and daily/monthly ET from VBR were compared with EC at one non-tidal (site A) and two tidal (sites B and C) wetlands. λE_VBR consistently underestimated λE_EC, with root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 61.2 W m^-2 at sites A, 106.1 W m^-2 at site B, and 137.2 W m^-2 at site C, largely due to storage fluxes across sites. Temporal integration improved VBR’s performance at tidal sites, where compensating water heat storage errors yielded low daily and monthly biases (site B: RMSE = 0.78 mm/d and 12 mm/month; r = 0.93; site C: RMSE = 0.90 mm/d and 13 mm/month; r = 0.93), with reduced major axis (RMA) regression slopes of 0.98 and ~0.91. In contrast, biomass heat storage at site A caused persistent biases (RMSEs = 0.97 mm/d and 23 mm/month; daily and monthly RMA slopes ~0.75; r = 0.85). These results highlight VBR’s limitations in environments with substantial storage fluxes. Despite this, VBR is cost-effective for estimating daily and monthly ET, with sensor costs at least tenfold lower than EC and simpler setup, making it suitable for ET monitoring in resource-limited and hard-to-access regions.

Widespread occurrence of Magnéli phases in wildland-urban interface fire ashes

Tue, 7 Apr 2026 13:56:55

The increasing activity of wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires has raised concerns regarding the potential environmental and human health impacts of residual ash remaining after burning. In this study, we investigated the concentration and speciation of titanium in WUI fire ash. Total titanium concentrations in WUI fire ash ranged from 0.53 to 80 g kg^–1. Synchrotron-based macro- and microscale X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES and μXANES, respectively) spectroscopy were used to quantify the relative abundance of major Ti phases in the fire ash, and the results were corroborated by high resolution-transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM) measurements. Rutile (α-TiO₂), anatase (β-TiO₂), ilmenite (FeTiO₃), and titanium(III) oxide (Ti₂O₃) were detected in all 20 ashes investigated by XANES and accounted for 0.26–0.83, 0.19–0.83, 0.33, and 0.17–0.72 of the spectral weight, respectively. Deeper analysis by μXANES of one sample demonstrated that Ti-bearing particles occurred as a mixture of rutile (α-TiO₂), anatase (β-TiO₂), ilmenite (FeTiO₃), and titanium(III) oxide Ti₂O_3, with the absence of a pure Ti₂O₃ phase. The presence of Ti₂O₃ in the WUI fire ash is ascribed to the reduction of rutile and anatase to Magnéli titania (Ti_nO_2n–1, n = 4–9), which is estimated to be the dominant phase of titanium in the 20 WUI fire ashes investigated by XANES. The occurrence of Magnéli titania was corroborated by HR-TEM. Our findings demonstrate the impact of WUI fires on titanium speciation; fires convert titanium dioxides (e.g., rutile and anatase) to reduced titanium phases (e.g., Magnéli titania). Based on HR-TEM analyses, most of the titanium-bearing particles were less than 500 nm in size. Magnéli particles have been shown to be more toxic than rutile and anatase and have been linked to reduced lung function. Therefore, this study provides critical insights into the pollution characteristics and potential health risks of WUI fire ashes and associated particles, which are currently poorly understood.

Sentinel-2 for chlorophyll-a water quality monitoring: A review of validation evidence and application potential

Wed, 8 Apr 2026 15:16:09

Water quality monitoring is integral to preserving the health of freshwater ecosystems, and satellite remote sensing has emerged as one monitoring method. Sentinel-2, in particular, has been valuable for water quality monitoring due to its 5-day global temporal revisit time and spatial resolution that ranges from 10 to 60 metres. Sentinel-2 can be used to measure and monitor chlorophyll-a, which historically has been used as an indicator of water quality, eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. Our goal was to review aquatic chlorophyll-a Sentinel-2 research to assess the types of validation evidence reported. Validation evidence is defined here as the set of information key to assessing algorithm performance, and include the spatial and temporal scales of satellite validation, reported in situ sampling method context information, demonstration of validation results through plots, and appropriate algorithm performance metrics. We highlight how the body of literature collectively contributes to advancing a national scale chlorophyll-a product that could support future resource management applications. Our review of 122 published studies indicated that much of the validation evidence corresponded to early stages, as defined by the NASA data maturity framework, due to a limited focus on individual lakes and limited detail on methodology for reproducibility. Prioritizing data accessibility for both in situ data and satellite workflows used in published studies; reporting methods with transparency and consistency; and using standard algorithm performance metrics could provide a consistent framework to support and enhance the utility of satellite inland water quality research. These three quality assurance mechanisms can promote effective evaluation of approaches for remote sensing of chlorophyll-a. Adopting these quality criteria could enable the integration of validation evidence from multiple studies, supporting more spatially and temporally representative products that would advance these approaches towards maturation for broader application.

Spatial units to support Lake Erie Cisco Coregonus artedi restoration

Egan, Joshua; Ackiss, Amanda; Muir, Andrew — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 13:49:00

At the request of the Lake Erie Committee, spatial units for Lake Erie Cisco were delineated during spring 2024. Spatial units correspond to the reproductive habitat of extirpated (unoccupied spatial units) and extant (occupied spatial units) populations. Spatial units were delineated using a Council of Lake Committees-endorsed method that involves synthesizing data for evaluation by a panel with expertise on the focal organisms and ecosystems. By examining catch, survey, observational, and genetic data, an expert panel determined that no viable Cisco populations remain in Lake Erie. Experts delineated one eastern and one western unoccupied Cisco spatial unit in Lake Erie based on interpretation of historical movement and spawning locations and timing. The expert panel also identified eleven key questions that can be investigated to further inform Lake Erie Cisco restoration. The two unoccupied spatial units will form the basis of a follow-on threats assessment and population viability models that together provide fishery managers science-based planning tools for Lake Erie Cisco restoration.

Finding the (small) cores: Spatial covariance tracks grassland bird community occupancy in fragmented grasslands

Berry, Lauren; DeGregorio, Brett; Uden, Daniel; Roberts, Caleb — Thu, 2 Apr 2026 18:04:33

Grasslands are an imperiled ecosystem, and grassland bird abundance is declining across North America. One of the strongest drivers for these declines is woody plant encroachment of grasslands. In the Great Plains and Sagebrush biomes of North America, spatial covariance—a remote-sensing metric for tracking boundaries between vegetation types—is emerging as a new method to identify and strategize conservation of grassland cores in the face of woody plant encroachment. However, the relationship between spatial covariance and grassland bird community occupancy is unknown. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy models to understand how occupancy probability of six declining grassland species responded to spatial covariance at three scales (0.81, 7.29, and 65.61 ha) and tree cover in fragmented grasslands of Arkansas, USA. Model selection revealed that the smallest spatial scale (0.81 ha) best explained grassland bird occupancy. Tree cover alone was a poor predictor of grassland bird occupancy compared to models that included spatial covariance at the 0.81- and 7.29-ha scales. Grassland bird occupancy declined at tree-grass boundaries (negative spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale) and increased in grassland cores (near-zero or slightly positive spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale). At low tree cover, Dickcissel (Spiza americana), Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), and Scissor-tailed Flycatcher (Tyrannus forficatus) occupancy probability more than doubled in grassland cores (where spatial covariance approached zero). Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna) had the weakest relationship with spatial covariance. Our results suggest that spatial covariance can identify grassland cores and serve as a powerful predictor of grassland bird community occupancy, even in highly fragmented grasslands. Identifying grassland cores empowers defending core grasslands from woody plant encroachment and then growing cores via active restoration.

Accumulation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their association with immune parameters in nestling ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) from Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, USA

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 12:53:32

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of widespread, environmentally persistent compounds that pose a potential threat to wildlife and human health. Despite recent efforts to reduce the use of long-chain PFAS in industrial practices and commercial/consumer products, the persistence and solubility of PFAS have led to their detection in wildlife on a global scale. Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) have long been used as a sentinel species with an extensive history of serving as an effective bioindicator of contamination. Here we report on a large-scale evaluation of PFAS and potential health effects in osprey from the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, USA. In 2011 and 2015, we collected plasma samples from osprey nestlings throughout the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay watersheds. We quantified 40 PFAS congeners in osprey plasma via liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and analyzed plasma for indicators of immune and thyroid function, and plasma biochemistry. In all birds, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) was the most commonly detected PFAS, followed by perfluoroundecanoic acid, (PFUnA) and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA). In nestling plasma from Chesapeake Bay, PFOS tended to be a higher average contributor to PFAS profiles compared to samples from Delaware Bay. In contrast, long-chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) such as PFUnA and PFDA comprised larger percentages of total PFAS in osprey plasma from Delaware Bay relative to Chesapeake Bay. While some PFAS concentrations were associated with plasma health indicators, the proportion of variation explained was low. Overall, our study provides a more thorough understanding of PFAS presence in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays and is one of the first to examine whether PFAS exposure is associated with adverse health effects in wildlife.

The impacts of co-circulating pathogens in Pacific herring depend on interactions between viral life-cycle traits and transmission parameters, highlighting interdependencies between pathogen epizootics

Fri, 3 Apr 2026 15:48:44

The average host susceptibility decreases as the epizootic progresses because easily infected hosts are first removed from the population. While host susceptibility is pathogen-specific, it is likely that host susceptibility is correlated between different pathogens, so that co-circulating pathogens may have reciprocal impacts on their epidemics. However, despite well-documented examples of concomitant infections in marine hosts, reciprocal epizootic effects have not been documented in wild marine organisms. We quantify reciprocal impacts between viral haemorrhagic septicaemia and viral erythrocytic necrosis in Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) using field and laboratory work. We show that the causative viruses for both diseases circulate through herring populations and that infection with one pathogen has negative impacts on the epizootic and infection characteristics of the other pathogen, suggesting positive correlations in the susceptibility to infection between pathogens. We then use simulations of a two-strain pathogen model to show that the impact of the correlation is modulated by transmission parameters, such as the incubation period and the initial transmission rate. Our work shows that co-occurring epizootics pose a management challenge because single-pathogen management actions may amplify the epizootics of the non-targeted pathogen. This study provides a framework to evaluate the consequences of reciprocal epizootic impacts through field, experimental and modelling work.

Evaluation of pathogen risks and testing considerations for Chinook salmon egg movements between New Zealand and California

Couch, Claire; Powell, David; Lovy, Jan — Wed, 4 Mar 2026 15:20:21

Executive Summary

Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum in Artedi, 1792; Chinook salmon) were historically abundant in the McCloud River but are now extirpated from this tributary owing to dam construction and lack of passage. Planning efforts to restore populations above Shasta and Keswick Dams are currently underway, including an evaluation of potential source populations. One potential source is New Zealand Chinook salmon, which are believed to have originated from tributaries of the Sacramento River. These fish could be returned to California if reintroduction risks, including risks of pathogen introduction, could be sufficiently mitigated. The U.S. Geological Survey was contracted to provide scientific support for reintroduction efforts, including evaluating the risks of pathogen transmission via the movement of Chinook salmon eggs from New Zealand to the McCloud River. This report estimates pathogen risks associated with egg movement and considers epidemiological and biosecurity measures to minimize these risks.

Pathogen risks associated with the movement of Chinook salmon eggs from New Zealand were evaluated based on pathogen virulence, transmission route, and geographic distribution. These criteria identified 14 moderate- and high-risk pathogens out of the 30 pathogens evaluated. Pathogen species and strains were considered high risk if they have the potential for vertical transmission (that is, transmission from parent to offspring), are moderately or highly virulent, and are exotic to the Sacramento River Basin. According to these criteria, we identified the following pathogens as high risk:

New Zealand rickettsia-like organisms 1 and 2.—These bacterial pathogens have been associated with mortality events in farmed Chinook salmon from the South Island of New Zealand but have not been detected in other regions.
Pilchard orthomyxovirus (POMV).—POMV has been detected in Sardina pilchardus (Walbaum, 1792; pilchards) and Salmo salar (Linnaeus, 1758; Atlantic salmon) from the coasts of southern Australia and Tasmania. POMV can cause relatively high mortality rates and may be indirectly transmitted via contaminated water sources.
Infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV).—IPNV has a wide geographic distribution and is present in the Sacramento River Basin, but the IPNV-like viruses detected in Australia and New Zealand are unique from those found in the United States.
Yersinia ruckeri.—This bacterial pathogen is the causative agent of enteric redmouth disease and has a widespread geographic distribution. However, the strains that are present in Australia and New Zealand are unique from those found in North America.

Strategic use of testing and biosecurity measures can minimize pathogen risks associated with the movement of eggs. The most effective measures include iodophor treatment of eggs to remove external pathogens, testing of all the adult fish from which gametes are obtained, and a quarantine period after transport to confirm pathogen testing results. Additional measures to enhance biosecurity could include testing the quarantined fish following emergence and (or) developing a fish health history of the source population through pathogen monitoring.

Efficacy of increased visual and olfactory cues for luring and trapping invasive tegu lizards

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 15:05:07

Controlling invasive wildlife species relies on the ability to efficiently remove individuals from the invaded environment. Thus, maximizing capture potential is of high interest, particularly for species that are difficult to capture. For invasive species such as the Argentine black and white tegu lizard (Salvator merianae), increasing attraction to traps could increase the probability of removal. While it has been established that S. merianae can be lured with a single chicken egg, the efficacy of increasing olfactory or visual cues to increase tegu captures has not been rigorously tested. To test this, we leveraged an ongoing National Park Service trapping effort near Everglades National Park. In 2023 and 2024, we randomly assigned traps to a control treatment (single real egg), increased olfactory and visual treatment (three real eggs), an increased visual plus standard olfactory treatment (one real egg and one decoy egg, or one real egg and two decoy eggs), or visual treatment only (three decoy eggs). We fitted Bayesian binomial models for tegu lizards and non-target species to the trapping data to assess how bait treatment, trap style, and trap location affected the daily probability of capture at a trap. Additionally, we fitted Bayesian linear models to test the effect of bait treatment on the size of tegus captured. We found that increasing the olfactory cue to three real eggs increased the probability of tegu capture, but not the probability of non-target species capture. Conversely, traps with one real egg and two decoy eggs increased the probability of non-target captures while reducing the probability of tegu captures. Trap style and trap location also had statistically significant effects. Bait treatment did not significantly influence the size of tegus captured; however, there was a weak effect suggesting juvenile and male tegus captured in traps with three real eggs were larger compared to traps with a single egg and two decoy eggs. Our results highlight potential improvements in tegu control methods that balance effective capture with minimizing non-target bycatch.

Diverse novel and avian-associated viruses in the ileal viromes of northern mockingbird (Mimus polyglottos)

Thu, 2 Apr 2026 13:42:58

Viruses are the most abundant and diverse organisms on Earth, though only a small portion cause disease. Understanding viral diversity is key to understanding and predicting pathogen emergence and zoonotic spillover. Here, we use meta-transcriptomic sequencing to examine the viral communities in the ileum of 25 Northern Mockingbirds (Mimus polyglottos) from various locations across Texas. We assembled high-quality genomes of 43 viral species (40 species identified to 13 families, one to kingdom, and two to realm), 38 of which were novel. They tentatively represent avian- (n = 3), arthropod- (n = 21), plant- (n = 5) and fungi- (n = 4) associated, or other (n = 10) viruses. The arthropod-associated Dicistroviridae family was the most dominant, comprising known and potentially new species. Of potential epidemiological importance were three novel and avian-associated viruses: members of the families Hepeviridae and Picornaviridae, and a new Matryoshka RNA virus. The Matryoshka RNA virus 8 (MaRNAV-8) is sister to other Matryoshka RNA viruses, and its co-occurrence with haemosporida further supports the nested virus-parasite-vector-vertebrate host relationship of this group of viruses, with potential implications for parasite evolution, fitness and load and vector competence. The Picornaviridae virus is a member of an avian hepatovirus clade, found nested within a clade containing both the mammalian pathogens Hepatovirus A – I and the avian Tremovirus pathogens, suggestive of a newly discovered pathogen of Northern Mockingbird. Although the recovered Hepeviridae virus is of unknown pathology, its family members include the Hepatitis E viruses. With the great diversity and novelty described from ileal viromes, discriminating potential pathogens and commensal microbiota from viruses associated with food items remains challenging. A deeper understanding of virus transmission and the risk of potential zoonosis can be enhanced by tracking viruses through the food web and via inter-specific and predator-prey interactions, particular in areas subject to land-use change, where human-wildlife interactions are increased and the risks from emerging pathogens of veterinary and medical importance are more pronounced.

Hyperspectral retrieval of phytoplankton absorption and community composition from NASA’s PACE-OCI in estuarine–coastal waters using a hybrid framework combining mixture-of-experts and Variational Autoencoder

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 17:58:00

Retrieving the phytoplankton absorption coefficient (a_phy; m−1), one of the most spectrally rich inherent optical properties, remains challenging in optically complex coastal waters worldwide. Leveraging NASA's new hyperspectral mission, PACE, we introduce Hyper-MoE-VAE, a deep-learning architecture that integrates a Mixture-of-Experts with a Variational Autoencoder to retrieve high-dimensional a_phy and subsequent estimation of phytoplankton community composition (PCC) from PACE-OCI hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R_rs). Pre-trained on global hyperspectral bio-optical datasets and fine-tuned using regional field R_rs–a_phy pairings from inland– estuarine–coastal waters, Hyper-MoE-VAE demonstrated strong transferability and effective adaptation across regions. Validation with in-situ Rrs showed accurate aphy retrievals in Lake Erie (NRMSE = 0.12, ε = 17.10), Lake Pontchartrain (NRMSE = 0.11, ε = 37.12), and the Barataria–Terrebonne Estuary (NRMSE = 0.14, ε = 38.89). Using same-day PACE-OCI Level 2 Rrs, the model achieved comparable performance in Lake Erie (NRMSE = 0.19, ε = 55.19), Lake Pontchartrain (NRMSE = 0.14, ε = 51.39), and the Barataria–Terrebonne Estuary (NRMSE = 0.17, ε = 47.92). Hyper-MoE-VAE derived PACE-OCI hyperspectral aphy was further decomposed against mass-specific absorption spectra to estimate group-specific contributions to total chlorophyll a. The resulting PCC showed strong agreement with HPLC–CHEMTAX in Lake Erie (R²= 0.692) and Gulf estuarine–coastal systems (R² = 0.732). Monte Carlo noise experiments further revealed group-dependent sensitivities, with diatoms and dinoflagellates showing moderate susceptibility to noise, while cyanobacteria and cryptophytes exhibited narrow uncertainty distributions. These results demonstrate Hyper-MoE-VAE's capability for regional, operational water-quality monitoring with PACE-OCI and its adaptability to current and future hyperspectral missions.

Extreme precipitation variability and soil texture controls on water-table response

Corona, Claudia; Ge, Shemin; Anderson, Suzanne; Dickinson, Jesse — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 16:31:28

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs), a key class of hydrometeorological extremes, are intensifying globally under climate change; however, their effects on water-table dynamics across varying soil textures remain poorly understood. To better understand the impacts of EPEs, we conducted one-dimensional modeling to evaluate water-table response time, displacement, recession time, and total recharge under EPEs of 0.20 m, 0.40 m, and 0.60 m amounts, applied over 1-, 7-, and 20-day durations across twelve soil textures. The results show that coarse soils (i.e., sand) respond within days, while fine soils (i.e., clay) may take over 200 days. Water-table displacement ranged from 0.30 to 1.64 m and increased with EPE magnitude. The time it took for water tables to recede ranged from 1.2 to 3.0 years. A first-order estimate of total possible recharge, calculated from porosity and displacement, ranged from 17% (clay) to 97% (sand), averaging ~63% across soil textures. These findings highlight that recharge is primarily governed by EPE magnitude and soil properties, not event duration. This modeling effort provides new insight into how soil texture modulates groundwater response to extreme precipitation, informing future water budget and resilience assessments.

Evaluating evidence of changing regional occupancy of four bat species in response to forest management practices

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 16:36:43

Coordinated, regional strategies to guide effective management and conservation of forests can be used to balance conservation with management for other objectives such as timber, scenic viewsheds, and fire. A key part of these regional strategies is incorporating knowledge of how management actions may affect certain species, especially those that are sensitive or are of concern. However, knowledge of how management actions may affect species is inferred from studies conducted across small areas where the species’ behavior and forest conditions are easily assessed. Here, we examine how occupancy of four bat species responds to forest management across the eastern United States at regional scales. We used range-wide capture and stationary acoustic surveys from the North American Bat Monitoring Program from 2010 to 2020 to estimate yearly summer occupancy for four bat species of conservation concern identified in the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) Southern and Eastern Regions Bat Conservation Strategy: little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), and tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), and assessed the degree to which occupancy of each species changed after different vegetation management actions were implemented on USFS lands. We identified 78 different management actions that were hypothesized to influence summer bat occupancy at two spatial scales (5-km and 10-km) across the eastern United States from the Forest Service Activity Tracking System and grouped these management actions into four vegetation management types: clear-cutting, fire, thinning, and ground vegetation management. To evaluate potential effects of these vegetation management types on bat occupancy, we created a yearly management metric representing the average number of years that had passed since any one of the included management actions in each management type had been implemented in each 5-km or 10-km grid cell, weighted by the proportion of the grid cell covered by the management treatment history. We chose these metrics to ask if more management or management done recently had a larger effect on bat occupancy than less management or management done long-ago. We then fit Bayesian hierarchical multi-scale occupancy models for each species to assess how occupancy changed in response to the amount and time since implementation of each vegetation management type. Using the estimated relationships between the yearly metrics of management and bat occupancy, we created predictions for how bat occupancy responded at 1- and 5- years after implementation. We found substantial differences in the response of the four species to the four vegetation management types. Ground vegetation management provided the greatest increase in expected occupancy at 1 year after implementation for little brown bat, long-eared bat, and tricolored bat, while fire provided the greatest increase in expected occupancy for Indiana bat. Thinning provided increases for all species at 1 year after implementation, but even greater increases at 5 years after implementation. Clear-cutting, on the other hand, tended to result in decreased occupancy at both 1- and 5-years after implementation for each species and had the greatest effect on tricolored bat at 1 year after implementation. Clear evidence for how management types like these may be affecting bat populations can be used at regional scales to help private and public forest managers achieve their strategic goals.

Site response models based on geometric parameters for southern California sedimentary basins

Shams, Rashid; Nweke, Chukwuebuka; Parker, Grace — Mon, 9 Mar 2026 14:56:34

Site response in sedimentary basins is influenced by complex three-dimensional (3D) features, including trapping of seismic waves, focusing of seismic energy and basin resonance. Current ground motion models (GMMs) incorporate basin effects using one-dimensional parameters like V_S30 and shear wave velocity isosurface depths, which are limited in capturing lateral and 3D effects. To address these limitations, we develop seismic site response models based on novel parameters that represent multi-dimensional properties of the Los Angeles Basin (LAB) geometry and shear wave velocity. We define a basin shape for the LAB using depth to subsurface geologic interfaces associated with the oldest sedimentary deposits (depth to a particular shear wave velocity horizon, i.e., 1.5 km/s - z_1.5) and the depth to the crystalline basement (z_cb) which are determined using geologic cross sections and community seismic velocity model profiles. We explore a suite of geometric descriptors computed for the LAB and southern California, from which three parameters with the greatest predictive potential are selected and evaluated using empirical ground motion residual analyses in combination with the Boore et al. GMM. The results demonstrate that the zonal heterogeneity index (), standard deviation of the absolute difference between z_1.5 and z_cb () and standard deviation of z_cb () each provide a reduction in site-to-site variability (ϕ_S2S) of empirical GMMs. The reduction in ϕ_S2S is period-dependent, with average decreases of 3%, 26% and 6% for , , and , respectively. Although these reductions are modest from an engineering application perspective, they are statistically significant, underscoring the inherent difficulty in fully characterising complex basin effects. Collectively, these findings indicate that the inclusion of basin-specific geometric parameters yields measurable, albeit incremental, improvements in site response prediction and establishes a framework for the progressive refinement of seismic hazard characterisation within sedimentary basins.

Genetic structure in a previously extirpated population of gray wolves following reintroduction and natural recolonization

Wed, 1 Apr 2026 16:50:46

Genetic structuring in wildlife populations is driven by barriers that restrict gene flow as well as the history of population demography. Mechanisms driving genetic structuring can be nuanced in group-living species, such as gray wolves (Canis lupus). Behavioral factors, such as social affiliation and resistance, natal habitat imprinting, and trade-offs between dispersal from natal packs and territorial biding, affect habitat selection of wolves despite landscape barriers providing little resistance to their extensive dispersal capabilities. Wolves were previously extirpated from Idaho, USA, and current populations are the result of both reintroductions in 1995 and 1996 and natural dispersal from Canada. In this context we examined genetic structure of wolves in Idaho using 101 individuals genotyped at 18 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci and a subset of 38 individuals genotyped at 1019 single nucleotide polymorphism markers. We hypothesized panmictic (i.e., random mating) genetic structure in Idaho due to the long-distance dispersal abilities of gray wolves. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found three genetic clusters of gray wolves in Idaho, primarily supported by SNP markers. Microsatellite data suggested similar patterns, but permutation tests indicated these differences were not statistically significant. The extent of differentiation and evidence of gene flow, however, suggests that the three genetic clusters are not wholly isolated from one another. The distinctions between clusters spatially align with areas of reintroduction into central Idaho and Yellowstone National Park, as well ongoing natural recolonization from adjacent populations in Canada and Montana. Wolves at the periphery of analysis areas showed more admixture than those in the core, consistent with territoriality and mating behaviors contributing to genetic structuring. We demonstrate how management history, including reintroduction efforts, and animal behavior may interact and contribute to patterns of genetic structure in wild populations.

Channel change and sediment transport in the Puyallup River watershed through 2022

Anderson, Scott — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:38:43

The Puyallup River drains a 990 square mile watershed in western Washington, with headwaters on the glacier-covered flanks of Mount Rainier. Major tributaries include the White, Carbon, and Mowich Rivers. In the levee-confined reaches of the lower watershed, loss of flood conveyance due to sand and gravel deposition has been a chronic issue. Over much of the 20th century, flood conveyance was maintained through sediment removal, but this practice ended in the late 1990s. Flood hazard management activities since the 1990s have primarily involved levee removal or setback projects. Assessments of 1984-2009 repeat cross sections suggested that sediment deposition rates were particularly high in reaches with recent levee setbacks. However, there have been no assessments of recent deposition rates since the 2009 surveys. There are also concerns that intensifying flood hydrology or increased sediment delivery from Mount Rainier may exacerbate deposition. However, assessment of those risks has been hindered by limited understanding of watershed-scale sediment delivery and routing, particularly for coarse sand and gravel.

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Pierce County, initiated this study to improve understanding of sediment deposition in the lower Puyallup River watershed. This work is primarily based on differencing of multiple aerial lidar datasets collected during 2002–2022, supplemented by early 1990 photogrammetric elevation datasets, geomorphic assessments of streamgage data, historical topographic surveys from 1907, and previously collected sediment transport measurements. Analyses cover the Puyallup, Carbon, and Mowich Rivers, but do not include the White River.

During 2004–2020, repeat aerial lidar indicates that 1.3 ± 0.3 million yd3 of sediment accumulated in the lower 20 valley miles (VMs) of the Puyallup River, averaging 80,000 ± 20,000 cubic yards per year (yd3/yr). Deposition was observed during both 2004–11 and 2011–20 lidar differencing intervals. This continued a long-term depositional trend that extends back to at least 1977. From 2004 to 2011, deposition rates along the Soldiers Home levee setback reach, the only setback project downstream of VM 20 completed prior to 2011, were approximately four times higher than in adjacent unmodified reaches. From 2011 to 2020, two additional setback projects were completed; volumetric deposition rates over all three setback reaches were similar to adjacent unmodified reaches, suggesting elevated setback deposition in the 2004–11 interval may have been influenced by an extreme flood in November 2006. These levee setback projects increased the local cross-sectional area of the floodway, used as a rough proxy for relative flood conveyance, by 50 to 200 percent above 2004 conditions. If deposition continued at recent rates, cross-sectional area over the levee setback reaches would be reduced back to 2004 values by 2050-90.

Deposition also occurred over the lower six VMs of the Carbon River during 2004–20, though volumes (0.15 ± 0.09 million yd3) were an order of magnitude lower than along the Puyallup River. Relatively lower deposition rates in the Carbon River are most likely the combined result of modestly lower incoming sediment loads, modestly steeper channel slope, and the additional sediment transport capacity provided by two large non-glacial tributaries that enter the Carbon River near VM 5.

Upstream of the depositional reaches described above, 2002–22 sediment storage trends along the Puyallup, Carbon, and Mowich Rivers were predominately negative (net erosion) up to the Mount Rainier National Park boundary. Net erosion was the result of bank and bluff erosion exceeding deposition across wetted channel and bare gravel areas, as opposed to uniform vertical downcutting. Net erosion along these river valleys delivered 3.4 ± 0.6 million yd3 to the river system, equivalent to 190,000 ± 35,000 yd3/yr. Most of that volume was supplied by erosion of relatively low (4–10 ft) surfaces along the Puyallup and Mowich Rivers and tall (300 ft) glacial bluffs along the lower Carbon River. Substantial aggradation from 1984 to 2009 reported by Czuba and others (2010) along reaches of the Puyallup River (VM 19–22) where levee confinement has recently been removed was most likely an artifact of methodologic bias.

The Puyallup, Mowich, and Carbon Rivers drain five distinct glaciated watersheds on the flanks of Mount Rainier, four of which were assessed in this study. All four watersheds were impacted by an extreme November 2006 rainstorm. Between 2002 and 2008, debris flows occurred in all four headwater areas, collectively eroding at least 2.1 million yd3 of sediment. These debris flows formed distinct deposits one to two miles downstream of source areas, depositing 30-50 percent of the material eroded upstream. From 2008 to 2022, no headwater debris flows were observed and overall rates of geomorphic change in the headwaters were low. Rivers eroded into debris flow deposits emplaced over the 2002–08 interval, but re-deposited equivalent volumes of material within a half mile downstream.

Stage-discharge relations at five streamgages on upland rivers draining Mount Rainier show either net channel incision or dynamic variability with no long-term trend over the past 60–100 years. Observations of pervasive river valley erosion and stable or incising trends at long-term streamgages in the upper watershed do not support prior claims of widespread and accelerating aggradation of upland rivers draining Mount Rainier.

Erosion and deposition volumes estimated in this report were combined with sediment transport estimates from limited suspended sediment and bedload measurements, estimates of sub-glacial erosion rates, and sediment delivery from non-glacial tributaries to construct watershed-scale sediment budgets for the Puyallup River watershed. During 2004–20, the estimated sediment load entering the depositional lowlands was well balanced by estimated inputs from, in order of relative magnitude, subglacial erosion (33–60 percent of total sediment load), erosion along the major river valleys (25–45 percent), erosion in recently deglaciated headwater areas (7–17 percent) and non-glacial tributaries (3–9 percent). These results are specific to the study period and represent total sediment loads, most of which is fine material carried in suspension. The relative sourcing of sand and gravel may be different than implied by this sediment budget.

Downstream of VM 12, comparison of 1907 and 2009 channel surveys show net lowering of the channel thalweg of 4–12 ft. A long-term gage near VM 22 shows lowering of 4–5 ft through the 1960s. Lowering at both locations was inferred to be a channel response to the substantial straightening, and so steepening, of the river during major phases of levee construction through the early and mid-20th century.

Application of a simple empirical bedload-discharge power-law relation to an ensemble of model-estimated daily mean discharge records in the lower Puyallup River between 1977 and 2100 projects that annual bedload transport capacity in the lower Puyallup River will increase by 20–60 percent by the middle of the 21st century. Actual changes in bedload transport and deposition rates will depend on concurrent changes in sediment supply and local hydraulics governing deposition.

This report presents several key conclusions. First, the persistence and spatial patterns of sand and gravel deposition along the lower Puyallup River support prior claims that deposition is fundamentally caused by decreases in channel slope moving downstream. Given this underlying cause and the abundance of sand and gravel available to be transported downstream, deposition is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Second, despite continued sediment deposition, recent levee setback projects in the lower Puyallup River will likely provide several decades of flood conveyance benefits relative to a no-action alternative. Third, while the rivers linking Mount Rainier to the Puget Sound lowlands have often been discussed as conduits that either pass or accumulate sediment from Mount Rainier, observations from 2002–22 show these river valleys acting as substantial sediment sources, delivering three times more sediment than recently deglaciated headwater areas on Mount Rainier. While the persistence and underlying cause of recent river valley erosion remain unknown, sediment storage dynamics along these river valleys are likely to be a major control on sand and gravel delivery to the lower watershed.

Detecting snow avalanche activity using infrasound: Hooker Valley, New Zealand

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:38:05

Snow avalanches pose considerable hazards to people and infrastructure in alpine environments. Traditional avalanche monitoring relies on meteorological data and visual observations, which can be limited in scope and timeliness. Infrasound offers a promising complementary monitoring tool by detecting the low-frequency sound waves generated by avalanches. Here, we present infrasound and camera observations during a 50-day field campaign in the Hooker Valley of Aoraki/Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand. Our study detected seven avalanches with the cameras, whereas the infrasound system identified only one of these events, which was the largest and occurred under conditions that likely favoured infrasound propagation. The infrasound system recorded numerous other events not captured by the cameras, indicating the benefit of further investigation to determine their sources. These findings highlight the potential of infrasound technology for detecting avalanches and providing broad spatial coverage, capturing events in areas not monitored by cameras, while also showcasing limitations in infrasound capabilities. The limited detection of smaller avalanches underscores the opportunity for further research to enhance detection capabilities and understand environmental influences such as snow cover and wind noise. Overall, this study emphasises the utility of multidisciplinary monitoring techniques to improve avalanche detection in alpine environments.

Assessment of antibiotic resistance genes in Caribbean corals, including those treated with amoxicillin

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 15:41:02

The decimation of reefs from stony coral tissue loss disease prompted the use of a topical amoxicillin treatment to prevent coral mortality. Application of this treatment led to concerns about unintentional impacts such as potential alteration of the coral microbiome and possible spread of antibiotic resistance. We used three different methodologies—microbial RNA sequencing, 16S rRNA amplicon surveys, and microbial qPCR array—to assess these concerns and to establish a baseline of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in untreated coral microbes. We conducted microbial RNA sequencing on wild Montastraea cavernosa coral mucus samples collected before and 24 h after amoxicillin application. While diverse antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) were expressed, no differences in ARG expression were detected after amoxicillin treatment. Additionally, there were no notable changes in the microbial communities between the before and after samples. In a separate experiment, a microbial qPCR array was used to assess differences in ARGs over longer timescales using cores from wild Colpophyllia natans, comparing never-treated corals with ones treated a single time seven months prior and with those treated multiple times seven months and more prior. No clinically relevant ARGs were detected across any samples. A small number of above-detection reads (4 in the never-treated corals, 2 in the once-treated corals, and 0 in the multi-treated corals) may indicate weak amplification of similar environmental (non-anthropogenic) ARGs in the corals. Results indicate that the localized topical application of amoxicillin to prevent mortality of SCTLD-affected corals does not: (1) significantly disrupt microbiomes, (2) increase ARG expression in adjacent tissues of these species within 24 h, nor (3) increase abundance of clinically relevant ARGs over a 7 month time period.

Constructed value of information with iterative scoring and parametric uncertainty to identify management-relevant research priorities for a declining raptor species

Fri, 3 Apr 2026 16:16:31

Constructed value of information (CVoI) is an expert elicitation decision-analytic tool used to prioritize sources of uncertainty based on their potential to improve decision outcomes if resolved. Despite increased application of CVoI, the robustness of CVoI prioritization of sources of uncertainty relative to differences in expert elicitation and scoring methods has not been evaluated. We engaged a group of species experts in a decision-analytic process to elicit uncertainties, framed as alternative hypotheses, about current population declines of the American kestrel (Falco sparverius) in the United States. Participants scored 13 hypotheses across 3 CVoI criteria, which are defined as constructed scales. Rather than experts selecting a single score per criterion, we used a likelihood point method to incorporate parametric uncertainty in the scoring process, in which experts were given 100 points to distribute across possible score categories within the criterion-specific constructed scale. Experts provided scores over 2 scoring rounds, with an opportunity to review and discuss initial scores between rounds. We used a Shannon entropy calculation to quantify how evenly participants allotted their points. We used simulation to evaluate the robustness of our prioritization results relative to a scoring method in which participants selected a single score category for each criterion. Participants often spread their points across 2 adjacent scores, reflecting parametric uncertainty. For one third of the hypothesis-scoring round combinations, the prioritization results differed in approximately 50% of simulations. The highest scoring hypotheses related to how the use of artificial versus natural nest cavities affects fecundity or survival, whether winter roosting sites are a limiting factor for population growth, and whether gamebird habitat management may benefit kestrel populations. Our CVoI prioritization framework can be used to develop collaborative research that is directly relevant to a management decision and is an advance in eliciting more representative expert beliefs.