Simulation of Conservative-Constituent Transport in the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota and Minnesota, 2003-04
Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5273
By Rochelle A. Nustad and Jerad D. Bales
In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation
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Population growth along with possible future droughts in the Red River of
the North (Red River) Basin will create an increasing need for reliable water
supplies. Therefore, as a result of the Dakota Water Resources Act of 2000,
the Bureau of Reclamation identified eight water-supply alternatives
(including a no-action alternative) to meet future water needs in the basin.
Because of concerns about the possible effects of the alternatives on water
quality in the Red River and the Sheyenne River and in Lake Winnipeg,
Manitoba, the Bureau of Reclamation needs to prepare an environmental impact
statement that describes the specific environmental effects of each
alternative. To provide information for the environmental impact statement,
the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation,
conducted a study to develop and apply a water-quality model, hereinafter
referred to as the Red River water-quality model, to part of the Red River and
the Sheyenne River to simulate conservative-constituent transport in the Red
River Basin. The Red River water-quality model is a one-dimensional,
steady-state flow and transport model for selected constituents in the Red
River and the Sheyenne River. The model simulates the flow and transport of
total dissolved solids, sulfate, and chloride during steady-state conditions.
The physical model domain includes the Red River from the confluence of the
Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail Rivers to the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, and
the Sheyenne River from above Harvey, N. Dak., to the confluence with the Red
River.
The Red River water-quality model was calibrated and tested using data
collected at 34 sites from September 15 through 16, 2003, and from May 10
through 13, 2004. Water-quality samples were collected during low, steady-flow
conditions from September 15 through 16, 2003, and during medium,
unsteady-flow conditions from May 10 through 13, 2004. The simulated total
dissolved-solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations generally were within 5
percent of the measured concentrations.
The Red River water-quality model was used to simulate
conservative-constituent transport in the Red River and the Sheyenne River for
the eight water-supply alternatives identified by the Bureau of Reclamation.
For the first set of eight simulations, September 2003 streamflows were used
with projected 2050 return flows and withdrawals. For the second set of eight
simulations, the September 2003 streamflows were reduced by 25 percent. The
simulated concentrations for three of the alternatives generally were lower
than for the no-action alternative. Of those alternatives, one would result in
a decrease in concentrations for two constituents, one would result in a
decrease in concentrations for all three constituents, and one would result in
a decrease in concentrations for one constituent and an increase in
concentrations for another constituent. For four of the alternatives, the
differences between the mean simulated concentrations were less than
calibration errors, indicating the effects of those alternatives on water
quality in the rivers is uncertain. The effects of reduced streamflow on
simulated total dissolved-solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations were
greatest for alternative 2. Reduced streamflow probably has an effect on
simulated total dissolved-solids concentrations for alternatives 2, 3, 5, and
7 and on simulated sulfate concentrations for alternatives 2 and 5. Except for
alternative 2, reduced streamflow had little effect on simulated chloride
concentrations.
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Abstract
Introduction
Purpose and Scope
Study Area
Methods
Data-Collection Network
Water-Quality Sample Collection and Analysis
Withdrawal and Return-Flow Data
Channel-Geometry Data
Description of HEC-5 and HEC-5Q Models
Streamflow and Water-Quality Conditions
Simulation of Conservative-Constituent Transport
Model Implementation
Computational Grid
Streamflow and Water-Quality Boundary Conditions
Model Calibration
Streamflow
Water Quality
Model Performance Testing
Model Applications
Simulations with September 2003 Streamflows
Total Dissolved Solids
Sulfate
Chloride
Uncertainty of Simulation Results
Simulations with Reduced Streamflows
Model Limitations
Summary
References
Figure
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Map showing locations of sites used in study.
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Graph showing streamflows and flow duration curves for
selected sites.
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Graphs showing streamflows for selected sites for
August 15 through October 31, 2003, and April 15 through June 30, 2004
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Graphs showing measured total dissolved-solids
concentrations for September 2003 and May 2004 sampling periods.
-
Graphs showing measured calcium, magnesium, sodium,
bicarbonate, carbonate, sulfate, and chloride concentrations for selected
sites for September 2003 and May 2004 sampling periods.
-
Graphs showing measured nitrite plus nitrate as
nitrogen, ammonia as nitrogen, and organic nitrogen concentrations for
selected sites for September 2003 and May 2004 sampling periods.
-
Graph showing measured total phosphorus concentrations
for selected sites for September 2003 and May 2004 sampling periods.
-
Diagram showing schematic of Red River water-quality
model.
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Graphs showing measured and simulated streamflows for
selected Red River water-quality model control points for September 15,
2003.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated total
dissolved-solids concentrations for Red River water-quality model
calibration points for September 15, 2003.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated sulfate
concentrations for Red River water-quality model calibration points for
September 15, 2003.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated chloride
concentrations for Red River water-quality model calibration points for
September 15, 2003.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated streamflows for
selected Red River water-quality model control points for May 10, 2004.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated total
dissolved-solids concentrations for Red River water-quality model
calibration points for May 10, 2004.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated sulfate
concentrations for Red River water-quality model calibration points for
May 10, 2004.
-
Graphs showing measured and simulated chloride
concentrations for Red River water-quality model calibration points for
May 10, 2004.
-
Graphs showing simulated streamflows for water-supply
alternatives for the Red River of the North and the Sheyenne River for
September 15, 2003.
-
Graphs showing simulated total dissolved-solids
concentrations for water-supply alternatives for the Red River of the
North and the Sheyenne River for September 15, 2003.
-
Graphs showing simulated sulfate concentrations for
water-supply alternatives for the Red River of the North and the Sheyenne
River for September 15, 2003.
-
Graphs showing simulated chloride concentrations for
water-supply alternatives for the Red River of the North and the Sheyenne
River for September 15, 2003.
Tables
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Data-collection network.
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Water-quality properties and constituents for which
samples were analyzed.
-
Withdrawals from and return flows to the Red River of
the North at Fargo, North Dakota, Grand Forks, North Dakota, and Moorhead,
Minnesota, during September 2003 and May 2004.
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Mean daily total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads
for September 2003 and May 2004 sampling periods and for 1992-95 and
1998-99.
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Streamflow boundary conditions for September 2003
sampling period.
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Streamflow boundary conditions for May 2004 sampling
period.
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Water-quality boundary conditions for September 2003
and May 2004 sampling periods.
-
Model calibration points used for simulation of
conservative-constituent transport in the Red River of the North Basin.
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Mean calibration errors and maximum and minimum
absolute differences between measured (September 2003) and simulated total
dissolved-solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations.
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Description of water-supply alternatives for Red River
Valley Water Supply Project.
-
Projected return flows, imported flows, and withdrawals
and estimated total dissolved-solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations
for water-supply alternatives.
-
Mean simulated concentrations for water-supply
alternatives and difference between concentration for alternative and
concentration for alternative 1 (the no-action alternative).
-
Reduced streamflows used in Red River water-quality
model.
-
Absolute mean differences and maximum and minimum
absolute differences between total dissolved-solids concentrations
simulated with September 2003 streamflows and those simulated with reduced
streamflows.
-
Absolute mean differences and maximum and minimum
absolute differences between sulfate concentrations simulated with
September 2003 streamflows and those simulated with reduced streamflows.
-
Absolute mean differences and maximum and minimum
absolute differences between chloride concentrations simulated with
September 2003 streamflows and those simulated with reduced streamflows.
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