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| Scientific Investigations Report 2006-5064 |
By Susan A. Thiros
Version 1.0
This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah, that originally simulated ground-water conditions during 1947-1980 and was updated to include conditions estimated for 1981-2002. Estimates of annual recharge to the ground-water system and discharge from wells in the area were added to the original ground-water flow model of the area.
The files used in the original transient-state model of the ground-water flow system in northern Utah Valley were imported into MODFLOW-96, an updated version of MODFLOW. The main model input files modified as part of this effort were the well and recharge files. Discharge from pumping wells in northern Utah Valley was estimated on an annual basis for 1981-2002. Although the amount of average annual withdrawals from wells has not changed much since the previous study, there have been changes in the distribution of well discharge in the area. Discharge estimates for flowing wells during 1981-2002 were assumed to be the same as those used in the last stress period of the original model because of a lack of new data. Variations in annual recharge were assumed to be proportional to changes in total surface-water inflow to northern Utah Valley. Recharge specified in the model during the additional stress periods varied from 255,000 acre-feet in 1986 to 137,000 acre-feet in 1992.
The ability of the updated transient-state model to match hydrologic conditions determined for 1981-2002 was evaluated by comparing water-level changes measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements made in February, March, or April were available for 39 wells in the modeled area during all or part of 1981-2003. In most cases, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level change from 1981 to 2002 simulated by the updated model reasonably matched the measured change. The greater-than-normal precipitation that occurred during 1982-84 resulted in period-of-record high water levels measured in many of the observation wells in March 1984. The model-computed water levels at the end of 1982-84 also are among the highest for the period. Both measured and computed water levels decreased during the period representing ground-water conditions from 1999 to 2002. Precipitation was less than normal during 1999-2002.
The ability of the model to adequately simulate climatic extremes such as the wetter-than-normal conditions of 1982-84 and the drier-than-normal conditions of 1999-2002 indicates that the annual variation of recharge to the ground-water system based on streamflow entering the valley, which in turn is primarily dependent upon precipitation, is appropriate but can be improved. The updated transient-state model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley can be improved by making revisions on the basis of currently available data and information.
Abstract
Introduction
Purpose and Scope
Description of the Study Area
round-Water Hydrology
Description of the Model
Update of the Model to Conditions through 2002
Performance of the Updated Model
Potential Revisions and New Data to Improve the Updated Model
Summary
Refereces Cited
Figure 1. Location of northern Utah Valley study area, Utah
Figure 2. Generalized block diagram showing the basin-fill deposits and ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 3. Grid for the model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 4. Location of cells simulating recharge and discharge in the model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 5. Specified ground-water discharge from wells in the updated model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah, 1947-2002
Figure 6. Location of cells simulating flowing and pumping wells in 1981 and 2002 in the updated model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 7. Annual streamflow in the American Fork and Provo Rivers and specified recharge to the ground-water system in the updated model of northern Utah Valley, Utah, 1947-2002
Figure 8. Location of wells with measured and computed water-level changes in the updated model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 9. Measured water-level change for selected wells during 1981-2003 and computed water-level change for the corresponding model cell and layer in the updated model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 10. Computed water-level decline from the end of 1980 to the end of 2001 in layer 5 of the updated model of the ground-water system and measured water-level decline from March 1981 to March 2002 at 14 wells that correspond to layer 5 in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 11. Measured water-level altitude for selected wells during 1981-2003 and computed water-level altitude for the corresponding cell and layer in the updated model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
Figure 12. Simulated and specified ground-water recharge and discharge in the updated model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah, 1947-2002
Table 1. Conceptual ground-water budget for the basin-fill aquifer system in northern Utah Valley, Utah
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