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Scientific Investigations Report 2006–5187

Simulation of Water Levels and Salinity in the Rivers and Tidal Marshes in the Vicinity of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, Coastal South Carolina and Georgia

U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2006–5187

ONLINE ONLY

By Paul A. Conrads, Edwin A. Roehl, Ruby C. Daamen, and Wiley M. Kitchens


Contents

Abstract

Introduction

Purpose and Scope

Description of Study Area

Previous Studies

Plant Ecology Studies

Hydrodynamic and Water-Quality Studies

Approach

Acknowledgments

Data Collection Networks

River Networks

Tidal Marsh Networks

Characterization of Streamflow, Water Level, and Specific Conductance

Calculated Variables, Data Preparation, and Signal Processing

Characterization of Streamflow

Characterization of River and Marsh Water Levels

Characterization of River and Marsh Specific Conductance

Simulating Riverine and Marsh Water Levels and Salinity

Limitations of the Data Sets

Signal Decomposition, Correlation Analysis, and State-Space Reconstruction

Signal Decomposition

Correlation Analysis

State-Space Reconstruction

Input-Output Mapping and Problem Representation

Decorrelation of Variables

Artificial Neural Network Models

Statistical Measures of Prediction Accuracy

Development of Artificial Neural Network Models

Riverine Water-Level Model at Little Back River near Limehouse

Riverine Specific-Conductance Model at Little Back River at USFW Dock

Marsh Water-Level Model at Little Back River at Site B2

Marsh Specific-Conductance Model at Site B2

Analysis of Estuary Dynamics Using Three-Dimensional Response Surfaces

Development of a Model-to-Marsh Decision Support System

Architecture

Historical Database

Linkage to the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

Model Simulation Control, User-Defined Hydrographs Program, Streaming Graphics,
and Two-Dimensional Color-Gradient Visualization Program

Application of the Model-to-Marsh Decision Support System

User-Defined Hydrology

Percentile and Constant Streamflow

Percent of Historical Streamflow

Percentile Hydrograph of Daily Streamflow

User-Defined Streamflow Hydrograph

Inputs to Model-to-Marsh from Three‑Dimensional Model Output

Summary

References

Appendix I. Summary statistics for the water-level and specific-conductance models used in the study

Appendix II. Model summary of artificial neural network models used in the Model-to-Marsh application

Appendix III. Variables used in artificial neural network models

Appendix IV. User’s Manual for Model-to-Marsh Decision Support System


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