Scientific Investigations Report 2006–5274
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Scientific Investigations Report 2006–5274
Table 5. Mean monthly, annual, and April-July estimated and simulated unregulated streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam and the percentage of error for the CALIBRATION, TESTING 1, TESTING 2, TESTING 3, TESTING 4, and COMPOSITE model simulations.
[UUS, uncorrected unregulated streamflow; CUS, corrected unregulated streamflow; Percentage of error with respect to UUS or CUS: Values may not match presented values because of rounding; CALIBRATION: Model simulations are based on input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station and synthetic daily minimum and maximum air temperatures for Omak OMAW AgriMet station; TESTING 1: Model simulations are based on input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures for Omak OMAW AgriMet station; TESTING 2: Model simulations are based on input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station, daily minimum and maximum air temperatures for Omak OMAW AgriMet station, and daily precipitation for Salmon Meadows SNOTEL station; TESTING 3: Model simulations are based on input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station and Omak OMAW AgriMet station; TESTING 4: Model simulations are based on input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station and Omak OMAW AgriMet station and daily precipitation for Salmon Meadows SNOTEL station; COMPOSITE: Model simulations are based on input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station and synthetic daily minimum and maximum air temperatures for Omak OMAW AgriMet station for water years 1950-89, daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully climate station and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures for Omak OMAW AgriMet station for water years 1990-99, and daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for Conconully CCR Hydromet station and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures for Omak OMAW AgriMet station for water years 2000-04; percentage of error = 100 × (simulated – estimated)/estimated. Unit abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]
Time period | Mean estimated | Mean simulated unregulated streamflow (ft3/s) |
Percentage of error with respect to |
||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
UUS (ft3/s) |
CUS (ft3/s) |
UUS | CUS | ||
CALIBRATION, water years 1950–89 | |||||
October | 9.5 | 11.7 | 8.6 | -9.2 | -26.0 |
November | 8.8 | 10.9 | 5.6 | -36.1 | -48.2 |
December | 8.2 | 10.2 | 3.6 | -56.2 | -64.7 |
January | 7.3 | 9.3 | 3.1 | -57.2 | -66.3 |
February | 9.0 | 11.2 | 5.6 | -37.6 | -50.0 |
March | 13.4 | 15.6 | 21.7 | 61.9 | 39.5 |
April | 36.6 | 39.3 | 50.4 | 37.7 | 28.0 |
May | 149.9 | 154.0 | 138.5 | -7.6 | -10.1 |
June | 122.1 | 126.8 | 107.3 | -12.1 | -15.4 |
July | 24.4 | 29.6 | 42.5 | 74.4 | 43.8 |
August | 3.8 | 7.1 | 20.9 | 445.1 | 193.6 |
September | 5.2 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 151.9 | 70.7 |
Annual1 | 33.3 | 36.2 | 35.2 | 5.9 | -2.7 |
April–July1 | 83.3 | 87.5 | 84.8 | 1.8 | -3.1 |
TESTING 1, water years 1990–96 | |||||
October | 8.9 | 11.0 | 8.0 | -9.8 | -27.4 |
November | 7.4 | 9.4 | 4.8 | -35.5 | -49.7 |
December | 7.5 | 9.5 | 3.1 | -58.2 | -66.9 |
January | 8.3 | 10.3 | 2.4 | -71.6 | -77.1 |
February | 8.1 | 10.4 | 3.4 | -58.6 | -67.5 |
March | 10.6 | 12.7 | 17.8 | 68.5 | 39.9 |
April | 40.5 | 43.3 | 33.3 | -17.9 | -23.1 |
May | 104.2 | 108.3 | 110.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 |
June | 107.3 | 112.1 | 102.4 | -4.5 | -8.6 |
July | 28.6 | 33.8 | 48.3 | 68.5 | 42.7 |
August | 0.9 | 4.2 | 18.4 | 1,866.6 | 337.0 |
September | -2.9 | 0.5 | 11.2 | -481.0 | 2,380.6 |
Annual1 | 27.5 | 30.4 | 30.4 | 10.7 | 0.0 |
April–July1 | 70.1 | 74.3 | 73.7 | 5.1 | -0.8 |
TESTING 2, water years 1990–96 | |||||
October | 8.9 | 11.0 | 8.4 | -5.3 | -23.8 |
November | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | -29.1 | -44.6 |
December | 7.5 | 9.5 | 3.4 | -54.8 | -64.2 |
January | 8.3 | 10.3 | 2.6 | -68.7 | -74.7 |
February | 8.1 | 10.4 | 3.8 | -53.7 | -63.6 |
March | 10.6 | 12.7 | 18.4 | 74.1 | 44.5 |
April | 40.5 | 43.3 | 32.3 | -20.4 | -25.5 |
May | 104.2 | 108.3 | 146.5 | 40.6 | 35.3 |
June | 107.3 | 112.1 | 116.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 |
July | 28.6 | 33.8 | 55.8 | 94.8 | 64.9 |
August | 0.9 | 4.2 | 21.8 | 2,226.1 | 416.9 |
September | -2.9 | -0.5 | 12.8 | -535.2 | -2,704.7 |
Annual1 | 27.5 | 30.4 | 35.8 | 30.4 | 17.8 |
April–July1 | 70.1 | 74.3 | 88.1 | 25.6 | 18.5 |
TESTING 3, water years 1990–96 | |||||
October | 8.9 | 11.0 | 8.0 | -10.0 | -27.5 |
November | 7.4 | 9.4 | 4.9 | -34.1 | -48.5 |
December | 7.5 | 9.5 | 3.2 | -56.6 | -65.7 |
January | 8.3 | 10.3 | 2.7 | -67.4 | -73.6 |
February | 8.1 | 10.4 | 5.0 | -39.1 | -52.2 |
March | 10.6 | 12.7 | 18.5 | 74.9 | 45.2 |
April | 40.5 | 43.3 | 34.1 | -15.8 | -21.2 |
May | 104.2 | 108.3 | 120.9 | 16.1 | 11.6 |
June | 107.3 | 112.1 | 109.6 | 2.1 | -2.2 |
July | 28.6 | 33.8 | 47.9 | 67.3 | 41.6 |
August | 0.9 | 4.2 | 19.2 | 1,954.1 | 356.5 |
September | -2.9 | -0.5 | 11.6 | -494.1 | -2,459.0 |
Annual1 | 27.5 | 30.4 | 32.3 | 17.4 | 6.0 |
April–July1 | 70.1 | 74.3 | 78.2 | 11.6 | 5.3 |
TESTING 4, water years 1990–96 | |||||
October | 8.9 | 11.0 | 8.5 | -4.7 | -23.3 |
November | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | -28.7 | -44.3 |
December | 7.5 | 9.5 | 3.4 | -54.5 | -64.0 |
January | 8.3 | 10.3 | 2.8 | -66.8 | -73.2 |
February | 8.1 | 10.4 | 5.1 | -37.5 | -50.9 |
March | 10.6 | 12.7 | 18.8 | 77.9 | 47.7 |
April | 40.5 | 43.3 | 34.0 | -16.0 | -21.4 |
May | 104.2 | 108.3 | 150.2 | 44.2 | 38.7 |
June | 107.3 | 112.1 | 119.5 | 11.4 | 6.7 |
July | 28.6 | 33.8 | 55.9 | 95.1 | 65.2 |
August | 0.9 | 4.2 | 22.1 | 2,260.3 | 424.5 |
September | -2.9 | 0.5 | 13.0 | -541.5 | -2,742.3 |
Annual1 | 27.5 | 30.4 | 36.7 | 33.6 | 20.7 |
April–July1 | 70.1 | 74.3 | 90.1 | 28.6 | 21.3 |
COMPOSITE, water years 1950–2004 | |||||
October | 9.6 | 11.8 | 8.2 | -14.7 | -30.3 |
November | 9.1 | 11.2 | 5.3 | -42.0 | -52.7 |
December | 8.5 | 10.5 | 3.4 | -60.0 | -67.6 |
January | 7.7 | 9.6 | 2.9 | -62.1 | -69.9 |
February | 9.0 | 11.2 | 4.9 | -45.8 | -56.6 |
March | 12.8 | 15.0 | 21.5 | 67.8 | 43.6 |
April | 39.4 | 42.2 | 46.4 | 17.8 | 10.1 |
May | 140.1 | 144.2 | 128.5 | -8.3 | -10.9 |
June | 117.1 | 121.9 | 103.8 | -11.4 | -14.9 |
July | 26.4 | 31.6 | 41.9 | 58.9 | 32.8 |
August | 3.8 | 7.1 | 19.4 | 406.0 | 172.9 |
September | 4.3 | 6.8 | 12.0 | 177.2 | 77.1 |
Annual1 | 32.4 | 35.3 | 33.3 | 2.8 | -5.7 |
April–July1 | 80.8 | 85.0 | 80.2 | -0.7 | -5.6 |
1Values may not match presented values because of rounding.