Dry Season Mean Monthly Flow and Harmonic Mean Flow Regression Equations for Selected Ungaged Basins in Arkansas

Abstract

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, Southwestern Energy, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, and the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, developed regression equations for estimation of dry season mean monthly flows and harmonic mean flows that are representative of natural streamflow conditions at selected ungaged basins in Arkansas. Observed values of dry season mean monthly flow and harmonic mean flow computed from daily-mean flow data were used with basin characteristics to identify significant explanatory variables for multiple-linear-regression equations to estimate predicted values of dry season mean monthly flow and harmonic mean flow. Five dry season mean monthly flow regression equations and two harmonic mean flow regression equations were developed using dry season mean monthly flows and harmonic mean flows established for 91 and 93 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. The dry season in Arkansas is defined as the months of July through November for this study. For harmonic mean flow calculations and regression equations, the study area is composed of the Springfield-Salem Plateaus (Arkansas and Missouri), Boston Mountains, Arkansas Valley, Ouachita Mountains (Arkansas and Oklahoma), and West Gulf Coastal Plain (Arkansas) physiographic sections. All continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations used to compute dry season mean monthly flows were located within Arkansas.

Equations for two regions were found to be statistically significant for developing regression equations for estimating harmonic mean flows at ungaged basins; thus, equations are applicable only to streams in those respective regions in Arkansas. Regression equations for dry season mean monthly flows are applicable only to streams located throughout Arkansas. All regression equations are applicable only to unaltered streams where flows were not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization. The median number of years used for dry season mean monthly flow calculation was 43, and the median number of years used for harmonic mean flow calculations was 34 for region 1 and 43 for region 2.

First posted March 17, 2015

Revised June 13, 2015