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Water-Resources Investigations Report 01-4172

Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Water Supply Authority

Model Simulation of the Manasquan Water-Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey

Ming Chang, Gary Tasker, and Steven Nieswand


Model simulation of the Manasquan Water Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey, was completed using historic hydrologic data to evaluate the effects of operational and withdrawal alternatives on the Manasquan reservoir and pumping system. Changes in the system operations can be simulated with the model using precipitation forecasts.

The Manasquan Reservoir system model operates by using daily streamflow values, which were reconstructed from historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station records. The model is able to run in two modes--General Risk analysis Model (GRAM) and Position Analysis Model (POSA). The GRAM simulation procedure uses reconstructed historical streamflow records to provide probability estimates of certain events, such as reservoir storage levels declining below a specific level, when given an assumed set of operating rules and withdrawal rates. POSA can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as streamflows falling below statutory passing flows, associated with a specific working plan for the water-supply system over a period of months.

The user can manipulate the model and generate graphs and tables of streamflows and storage, for example. This model can be used as a management tool to facilitate the development of drought warning and drought emergency rule curves and safe yield values for the water-supply system.

First posted February 2011

For additional information contact:
Director, New Jersey Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
810 Bear Tavern Rd, Ste 206
West Trenton, NJ 08628

Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format (PDF); the latest version of Adobe Reader or similar software is required to view it. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge.

Suggested citation:

Chang, Ming, Tasker, Gary, and Nieswand, Steven, 2001, Model simulation of the Manasquan Water-supply system in Monmouth County, New Jersey: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 01-4172, 46 p.




Purpose and scope

Description of study area and water-supply system

The Manasquan Reservoir system model

Historical streamflow reconstruction

Rule curves

Approach 1

Approach 2

Approach 3

Model simulation

General risk analysis model

Position analysis model

Graphical user interface

Physical dimensions

Basin adjustments

Water demands

Reservoir operating rules

Model output

General risk analysis model, data table, and graphs

Position analysis model, data table, and graphs

Model limitations


Selected References

Appendix A. Method for reconstructing flow

Appendix B. Rule curve development

Appendix C. Model statistics

Appendix D. Manasquan River model help manual

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