Recent estimates of future sea-level rise based on climate model output (Wigley and Raper, 1992) suggest an increase in global eustatic sea-level of between 15-95 cm by 2100, with a "best estimate" of 50 cm (IPCC, 1995). This is more than double the rate of eustatic rise for the past century (Douglas, 1997; Peltier and Jiang, 1997). Thus, sea-level rise will have the largest sustained impact on coastal evolution at the societally-important decadal time scale. For example, Zhang et al. (1997) showed that sea-level rise over the past 80 years at two locations on the U.S. East Coast contributed directly to significant increases in the amount of time the coast is subjected to extreme storm surges. From 1910-1920, the coast near Atlantic City, New Jersey was exposed to anomalously high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year, whereas during the early 1990's the coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year. Interestingly, the authors found that although storm surge varied a great deal on annual to decadal scales, there was no long-term trend showing increases in storm intensity or frequency that might account for the increasing anomalously high water levels. Zhang et al. (1997) concluded that the increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of about 30 cm over the 80-year period. This finding suggests that the historical record of sea-level change can be combined with other variables (e.g., elevation, geomorphology, wave characteristics) to assess the relative coastal vulnerability to future sea-level change.
Back to TopThe prediction of future coastal evolution is not straightforward. There is no standard methodology, and even the kinds of data required to make such predictions are the subject of much scientific debate. A number of predictive approaches have been used (National Research Council, 1990), including:
Although a viable, quantitative predictive approach is not available, the relative vulnerability of different coastal environments to sea-level rise may be quantified at a regional to national scale using basic information on coastal geomorphology, rate of sea-level rise, past shoreline evolution, and other factors. The overall goal of this study is to develop and utilize a relatively simple, objective method to identify those portions of the U.S. coastal regions at risk and the nature of that risk (e.g., inundation, erosion, etc.). The long-term goal of this study is to predict future coastal changes with a degree of certainty useful for coastal management, following an approach similar to that used to map national seismic and volcanic hazards (e.g., Miller, 1989; Frankel et al., 1996; Hoblitt et al. 1998). This information has immediate application to many of the decisions our society will be making regarding coastal development in both the short- and long-term.
Back to TopThis study involves two phases. The first phase, presented in this report for the U.S. East Coast, involves updating and refining existing databases of geologic and environmental variables, such as that compiled by Gornitz and White (1992). For all of the variables in this data set, updated or new data exist and are presented here. The second phase of the project has two components. The first component entails integrating model output such as eustatic, isostatic, and short-term climatic sea-level change estimates in order to assess the potential impacts on the shoreline due to these changes. The second component involves developing other databases of environmental information, such as relative coastal sediment supply, as well as including episodic events (hurricane intensity, track, and landfall location, Nor'easter storm intensity data, and El Niño-related climate data such as short-term sea-level rise).
In this preliminary report, the relative vulnerability of different coastal environments to sea-level rise is quantified for the U.S. East Coast. This initial classification is based upon variables such as coastal geomorphology, regional coastal slope, and shoreline erosion and accretion rates. The combination of these variables and the association of these variables to each other furnishes a broad overview of regions where physical changes will occur due to sea-level rise.