CONCLUSIONS

The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) provides insight into the relative potential of coastal change due to future sea-level rise. The maps and data presented here can be viewed in at least two ways:

1) as an indication of where physical changes are most likely to occur as sea level continues to rise; and

2) as a planning tool for the Cumberland Island National Seashore.

As ranked in this study, geomorphology, historical rates of shoreline change, and significant wave height and are the most important variables in determining the spatial variability of the CVI for Cumberland Island. Regional coastal slope, tidal range, and sea-level rise rate do not contribute to the spatial variability in the coastal vulnerability index.

Cumberland Island National Seashore preserves a dynamic natural environment, which must be understood in order to be managed properly. The CVI is one way that park managers can assess objectively the natural factors that contribute to the evolution of the coastal zone, and thus how the park may evolve in the future.