USGS Open-File Report 99-522: A Physically-Based Earthquake Recurrence Model for Estimation of Long-Term Earthquake Probabilities

A Physically-Based Earthquake Recurrence Model for Estimation of Long-Term Earthquake Probabilities

By William L. Ellsworth, Mark V. Matthews, Robert M. Nadeau, Stuart P. Nishenko, Paul A. Reasenberg, and Robert W. Simpson

Abstract

A physically-motivated model for earthquake recurrence based on the Brownian relaxation oscillator is introduced. The renewal process defining this point process model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from the ground state to failure threshold as modulated by Brownian motion. Failure times in this model follow the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, which is specified by the mean time to failure, μ, and the aperiodicity of the mean, α (equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation). Analysis of 37 series of recurrent earthquakes, M -0.7 to 9.2, suggests a provisional generic value of α = 0.5. For this value of α, the hazard function (instantaneous failure rate of survivors) exceeds the mean rate for times > μ⁄2, and is ∼∼ 2 ⁄ μ for all times > μ. Application of this model to the next M 6 earthquake on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California suggests that the annual probability of the earthquake is between 1:10 and 1:13.

First posted March 25, 2002

Report PDF (152 kB)

For additional information, contact:
Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park
U.S. Geological Survey
345 Middlefield Road, MS 977
Menlo Park, CA 94025-3591
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/contactus/menloloc.php

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Suggested citation:

Ellsworth, William L., Matthews, M. V., Nadeau, R. M., Nishenko, S. P., Reasenberg, P. A., Simpson, R. W., 1999, A Physically-Based Earthquake Recurrence Model for Estimation of Long-Term Earthquake Probabilities: U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-522, 23 pp., https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/0522/.