Conclusions

The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) provides insight into the relative potential of coastal change due to future sea-level rise. The maps and data presented here can be viewed in at least two ways:

1) as indicators of where physical changes are most likely to occur as sea-level rises; and

2) as planning tools for the Padre Island National Seashore.

As ranked in this study, geomorphology, shoreline change, and significant wave height are the most important variables in determining the CVI for Padre Island. Tide range, coastal slope, and sea-level rise do not contribute to the spatial variability in the coastal vulnerability index.

Padre Island National Seashore preserves a dynamic natural environment, which must be understood in order to be managed properly. The CVI is one way that a park can assess objectively the natural factors that contribute to the evolution of the coastal zone, and thus how the park may evolve in the future.