Conclusions

The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) provides insight into the relative potential of coastal change due to future sea-level rise. The maps and data presented here can be viewed in at least two ways:

1) as an indication of where physical changes are most likely to occur as sea level continues to rise; and

2) as a planning tool for the War in the Pacific National Historical Park.

As ranked in this study, geomorphology, regional coastal slope, and wave energy are the most important variables in determining the spatial variability of the CVI for Guam. Tidal range, shoreline change, and sea-level rise rate do not contribute to the spatial variability in the coastal vulnerability index.

War in the Pacific National Historical Park preserves a dynamic natural environment, which must be understood in order to be managed properly. The CVI is one way that park managers can assess objectively the natural factors that contribute to the evolution of the coastal zone, and thus how the park may evolve in the future. The CVI ranges (low – very high) reported here apply specifically to War in the Pacific NHP, and are not comparable to CVI ranges in other parks where the CVI has been employed. We feel this approach best describes and highlights the vulnerability specific to War in the Pacific NHP.