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Open-File Report 2011–1141

National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Atrazine Concentration in Corn Belt Streams

By Wesley W. Stone and Robert J. Gilliom

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Abstract

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, can be improved for application to the U.S. Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include important watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for predicting annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. All streams used in development of WARP-CB models drain watersheds with atrazine use intensity greater than 17 kilograms per square kilometer (kg/km2). The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62 percent of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites.


The 95-percent prediction intervals are well within a factor of 10 above and below the predicted concentration statistic. WARP-CB model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90 percent of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions of the probability of exceeding a specified criterion or benchmark for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with high atrazine use intensities; however, National WARP models should be used for Corn Belt streams where atrazine use intensities are less than 17 kg/km2 of watershed area.

First posted June 2011

    Comment

    Open-File Report 2011–1141 has been superseded by:
    Stone, W.W., and Gilliom, R.J., 2012, Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models for predicting atrazine concentrations in Corn Belt streams: Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA), v. 48, no. 2, p. 970–986, DOI:10.1111/ j.1752-1688.2012.00661.x, available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2012.00661.x/full.

For additional information contact:
Director, Indiana Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
5957 Lakeside Blvd
Indianapolis, IN 46278
http://in.water.usgs.gov/

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Suggested citation:

Stone, W.W., and Gilliom, R.J., 2011, Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1141, 18 p.



Contents

Abstract

Introduction

Methods

Atrazine Models

Summary and Conclusions

References Cited

Appendixes


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