Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines
Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts
Meeting held April 22-24, 2004 at the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY
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Abstract
An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.
Suggested Citation
Spendelow, J., Nichols, J., Kendall, W., Hines, J., Hatfield, J., and Nisbet, I., 2004, Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines: Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines |
| Series title | Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts |
| Year Published | 2004 |
| Language | English |
| Contributing office(s) | Patuxent Wildlife Research Center |
| Description | P42 |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts |
| First page | P42 |