Released March 06, 2025 14:33 EST

2025, Techniques and Methods 11-E1

Mark T McClernan, Michael L. Dennis, Ike H. Theriot, Trent M. Hare, Brent A. Archinal, Lillian R. Ostrach, Marc A. Hunter, Matthew J. Miller, Ross A. Beyer, Andrew M. Annex, Samuel J. Lawrence

Foreward

This document contains design specifications of a navigational standard for the Moon, including a Lunar Transverse Mercator system, a Lunar Polar Stereographic system, a Lunar Grid Reference System, and a unique coordinate structure, Artemis Condensed Coordinates, for Artemis mission navigation and lunar surface science.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis campaign seeks to place humans on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions. Early Artemis missions are heavily focused on the lunar south pole, which promises to return valuable data on the Moon’s geologic record, amongst other mission objectives. Coordinate systems in use today for the lunar south pole provides crew members on the surface neither an efficient nor intuitive means to communicate their position and orientation. A novel grid coordinate system, the Lunar Grid Reference System, is proposed to address these concerns for use in real-time extravehicular activity operations on the lunar surface.

The many stakeholders involved in the Artemis missions will need a common system to communicate position and orientation while astronauts are operating on the lunar surface. To that end, Artemis crew members will need that system to be efficient and intuitive to promote efficient extravehicular activity timelines and reduce confusion. In the context of this document, these characteristics are addressed on the design of lunar coordinate systems:

• Efficient.—The number of characters required to communicate a location within a desired precision level in both local and global contexts, and how many steps are required for a recipient or sender to interpret a location.
• Intuitive.—How well the system aligns with human perceptual abilities, and whether the system yields distances that have the same relationship to actual lunar surface distance in all directions from the point where a person is located.

Technological systems are currently being investigated to supplement the crew members’ ability to locate and orient themselves and other assets on the lunar surface; however, it is unlikely that those systems will be fully operational for the first few landed missions. Even with future positional aids, crew members will still need an efficient and intuitive means to communicate position and orientation. In addition, if technological systems fail, the crews will require land navigation skills and have maps available, thus providing further motivation for a crew-centric coordinate system.

The contents of this U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) document detail a comprehensive framework for standardizing lunar crewed surface navigation within NASA and outlines the protocols, methods, and designs necessary for achieving consistency and interoperability across relevant space mission teams and lunar surface navigators. Key components of this document include designs of map projections, projected coordinate reference systems (Lunar Transverse Mercator and Lunar Polar Stereographic systems), and a grid system (Lunar Grid Reference System and Artemis Condensed Coordinates) for the Moon.

The work proposed in this document seeks to accomplish something similar to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) document SIG 0012 (NGA, 2014a), but for using grid systems for the Moon. This report incorporates initial feedback and input from NASA’s Artemis Geospatial Data Team, NASA’s Flight Operations Directorate, National Geodetic Survey, USGS Astrogeology Science Center, and NGA and is intended to serve as a resource for all involved with the Artemis missions, as well as for engineers designing and operating lunar infrastructure.

Released March 05, 2025 12:00 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3009

Elise R. Irwin, Tess M. McConnell, Donald E. Dennerline, Kevin L. Pope, Jonathan R. Mawdsley

Introduction 

The U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units (USGS CRU) program was established in 1935 and codified by Congress in 1960 to enhance graduate education in wildlife and fisheries sciences and to facilitate research and technical assistance among natural resource agencies and universities on fisheries and wildlife management topics of mutual concern. The success of the CRU program lies in its cooperative approach. State and Federal fish and wildlife agencies determine where focused, science-based studies for wildlife and natural resource management for societal benefit are needed. The CRU scientists conduct applied research to contribute results to inform and aid partners in determining best practices for managing resources. Each Unit is a unique partnership among the U.S. Geological Survey, a host university, one or more State agencies, the Wildlife Management Institute, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Released March 05, 2025 10:05 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (970)

Curt Storlazzi, Renee K. Takesue, Alicia Hendrix

Letter to the journal editor at "Science of the Total Environment" regarding a paper on the 2023 Lahaina fire impacts. We provide feedback on the methods and findings of the recent paper by Downs et al. (2024), and suggests an alternate, less concerning post-fire scenario based on quantitative data from Lahaina and Maui. The erroneous assumptions employed in this study call into question the validity of the paper's findings and recommendations.

Released March 04, 2025 14:51 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5064-E

Tara J. Williams-Sether, Chris Sanocki

This report chapter summarizes the effect of hydroclimatic variability of annual peak streamflow in Minnesota and is part of a larger U.S. Geological Survey multistate study to assess potential nonstationarity in annual peak streamflows across the Midwest. Spatial and temporal patterns were examined for nonstationarity in annual peak streamflow, daily mean streamflow, and modeled climatic data in four analysis periods: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Upward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northwest to southeast and north to south directions. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northeastern and southeastern areas. Trends in peak-flow timing indicated that peak streamflows are being detected later in the water year (the period from October 1 to September 30 designated by the year in which it ends) mainly in the southern areas and earlier in the water year mainly in the northern areas.

Changes in climate data point to wetter conditions in southern areas and drier conditions in northern areas. Annual precipitation was determined to be increasing in a northwest to southeast direction and in the east. In contrast, some areas in the north and northwest indicated decreasing annual precipitation. Annual snowfall was determined to be decreasing except in the extreme northeast, where annual snowfall was determined to be increasing. Decreases in annual potential evapotranspiration were detected in the south, and increases were detected in the north. Annual soil moisture increased in southern areas and decreased in northern and eastern areas. The potential spatial and temporal nonstationarity violations detected in the four analysis periods have important implications for flood-frequency analysis and point to the need for guidance on how to incorporate nonstationarities into future flood-frequency analysis in Minnesota.

Released March 04, 2025 13:21 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5064-H

Karen R. Ryberg, Tara J. Williams-Sether

Standardized guidelines for completing flood-flow frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5. In recent decades (since about 2000), a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence (periods of clustered floods or droughts, or wet or dry periods) and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change have caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumptions underlying methods in Bulletin 17C. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance on incorporating nonstationarities and further identifies a need for flood-frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. As part of that reexamination, a study of annual peak streamflow (peak flow) has begun in the Midwest. This chapter of the study summarizes how hydroclimatic variability affects peak flows in North Dakota.

In this analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate metrics, four periods were selected: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Output from a monthly water-balance model was used for the climate data. Statistical analysis of peak flow consisted of evaluations of autocorrelation, trends, and change points and was augmented with analyses of seasonality and daily streamflow. The long-term pattern of decreasing peak flow in the west and increasing peak flow in the east is a pattern of opposing signals on either side of the 100th meridian. Analyses indicate that a key factor in changing hydroclimatology is the increase in fall precipitation. The trends in soil moisture closely match the trends in annual precipitation. Nonstationary flood-frequency analysis necessitates detailed exploratory data analysis and additional data and information about climate, land use, and other factors. This study provides extensive exploratory analysis for peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data for North Dakota, setting the stage for informed nonstationary flood-frequency analysis.

Released March 04, 2025 09:27 EST

2025, Ecosystem Services (72)

Kenneth J. Bagstad, Stefano Balbi, Greta Adamo, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Flavio Affinito, Simon Willcock, Ainhoa Magrach, Kiichiro Hayashi, Zuzana Harmackova, Aidin Niamir, Bruno Smets, Marcel Buchhorn, Evangelia Drakou, Alessandra Alfieri, Bram Edens, Luis Gonzalez Morales, Agnes Vari, Maria-Jose Sanz, Ferdinando Villa

Despite continued, rapid growth in the literature, the fragmentation of information is a major barrier to more timely and credible ecosystem services (ES) assessments. A major reason for this fragmentation is the currently limited state of interoperability of ES data, models, and software. The FAIR Principles, a recent reformulation of long-standing open science goals, highlight the importance of making scientific knowledge Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable. Critically, FAIR aims to make science more transparent and transferable by both people and computers. However, it is easier to make data and models findable and accessible through data and code repositories than to achieve interoperability and reusability. Achieving interoperability will require more consistent adherence to current technical best practices and, more critically, to build consensus about and consistently use semantics that can represent ES-relevant phenomena. Building on recent examples from major international initiatives for ES (IPBES, SEEA, GEO BON), we illustrate strategies to address interoperability, discuss their importance, and describe potential gains for individual researchers and practitioners and the field of ES. Although interoperability comes with many challenges, including greater scientific coordination than today’s status quo, it is technically achievable and offers potentially transformative advantages to ES assessments needed to mainstream their use by decision makers. Individuals and organizations active in ES research and practice can play critical roles in creating widespread interoperability and reusability of ES science. A representative community of practice targeting interoperability for ES would help advance these goals.

Released March 03, 2025 11:40 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5102

Nicholas Cole, David Fulton

Executive Summary

Gaining a better understanding of the human dimensions of waterfowl management to inform the North American Waterfowl Management Plan is a valuable but challenging goal for the future success of waterfowl management. Increasing engagement with key stakeholder groups will lead to more support and effective waterfowl management. Social systems are complex because individual values and preferences may vary across geographic and cultural dimensions, so it is valuable to describe those differences rather than only looking at national-scale trends. Therefore, using broad engagement strategies that do not consider the differences among regional groups may do more harm than good.

This study analyzed a subset of responses from waterfowl hunters (hereafter respondents) in the Southeast region of the United States from a national-scale survey (Patton, 2018). This study compared how respondents’ opinions differed among two subsections of the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways—the Atlantic subflyway and Mississippi subflyway—and responses from the national survey. Respondents in the Atlantic subflyway had a primary home ZIP Code in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Respondents in the Mississippi subflyway had a primary home ZIP Code in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, and Mississippi. Investigating these differences provides waterfowl managers decision-making support and a better understanding of how perceptions may differ among respondents in the Southeast region and the Nation. Responses from each group are presented for each for each survey topic, and statistical tests of homogeneity are included to inform how the differences may be considered when managing for waterfowl and waterfowl hunting.

Respondents from the Mississippi and Atlantic subflyways did not differ substantially except in their perceptions and preferences of waterfowl harvest and harvest regulations. Respondents from the Mississippi subflyway consistently reported a higher average harvest of ducks and geese, emphasized the importance of higher harvest for their satisfaction with waterfowl hunting, and typically placed a greater emphasis on regulatory decisions that facilitated increased harvest opportunity than respondents from the Atlantic subflyway. This emphasis was especially true when preferring species-specific limits more than simpler aggregate limits. Respondents in the Mississippi subflyway were in direct opposition to respondents in the Atlantic subflyway and preferred the opportunity for increased harvest that species-specific bag limits provide.

Respondents in the Mississippi subflyway placed greater emphasis on harvest and larger bag limits compared with respondents in the Atlantic subflyway and the national survey. Respondents in the Atlantic subflyway often aligned with the national survey respondents’ perceptions of harvest that placed a lower emphasis on the number of ducks or geese harvested in comparison to Mississippi subflyway respondents. The Atlantic and Mississippi subflyway respondents reported hunting ducks and geese to a much lower degree than the national survey respondents, who favored only hunting ducks or hunting neither ducks nor geese. Similarly, respondents in the Mississippi and Atlantic subflyways reported that overcrowding, high hunting pressure, and interference from other respondents limited their participation to a higher degree than respondents from the national survey.

The trip-specific preferences for waterfowl hunting in the Southeast region were calculated using latent class analysis and three groups were determined based on individual estimates of attribute importance: generalist, seclusionist, and harvest oriented. The generalist group did not place a high degree of importance on any one attribute and was most likely to choose to not participate given suboptimal conditions. The seclusionist group placed a high degree of importance on lower levels of competition from other groups and felt their well-being was most affected by higher levels of competition. The harvest-oriented group placed a higher degree of importance on harvesting more than three birds and felt their well-being was most negatively affected if they only expected to harvest a single bird. These groups existed uniformly between the Mississippi and Atlantic subflyways, had a slightly higher membership of each group in rural areas, and an overall higher membership in the seclusionist group.

Subsetting national survey data to profile regional differences provides key information to waterfowl managers seeking to make tailored decisions in their region or flyway. This investigation provides an important resource for informed management decisions in the Southeast region and will assist waterfowl managers by supporting engagement and communication with respondents in the Southeastern United States.

Released March 03, 2025 10:59 EST

2025, Environmental Research Communications (7)

Sydney Maya Katz, Toby Matthew Maxwell, Marie-Anne de Graaff, Matthew Germino

Soil organic carbon ('SOC') in drylands comprises nearly a third of the global SOC pool and has relatively rapid turnover and thus is a key driver of variability in the global carbon cycle. SOC is also a sensitive indicator of longer-term directional change and disturbance-responses of ecosystem C storage. Biome-scale disruption of the dryland carbon cycle by exotic annual grass invasions (mainly Bromus tectorum, 'Cheatgrass') threatens carbon storage and corresponding benefits to soil hydrology and nutrient retention. Past studies on cheatgrass impacts mainly focused on total C, and of the few that evaluated SOC, none compared the very different fractions of SOC, such as relatively unstable particulate organic carbon (POC) or relatively stable, mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC). We measured SOC and its POC and MAOC constituents in the surface soils of sites that had sagebrush canopies but differed in whether their understories had been invaded by cheatgrass or not, in both warm and relatively colder ecoregions of the western USA. MAOC stocks were 36.1% less in the 0–10 cm depth and 46.1% less in the 10–20 cm depth in the cheatgrass-invaded stands compared to the uninvaded stands of the warmer Colorado Plateau, but not in the cooler and more carbon-rich Wyoming Basin ecoregion. In plots where cheatgrass increased SOC, it was via unstable POC. These findings indicate that cheatgrass effects on the distribution of soil carbon among POC and MAOC fractions may vary among ecoregions, and that cheatgrass can reduce forms of carbon that are otherwise considered stable and 'secure', i.e. sequestered.

Released March 03, 2025 09:39 EST

2024, Journal of Melittology

Clint R.V. Otto, Larissa L. Bailey, Brianne Du Clos, Tamara Smith, Elaine Evans, Ian Pearse, Saff Killingsworth, Sarina Jepsen, Hollis Woodard

Current bee monitoring efforts have a limited capacity for understanding factors affecting wild bee population changes, including the effects of management. To improve the effectiveness of wild bee monitoring, we first discuss principles of biological monitoring and provide a framework to design monitoring projects to estimate species occupancy, where occupancy is defined as the probability that a Sampling Unit or site is occupied by the focal species. Monitoring practitioners should first define the desired goal or question of monitoring and secondly select the appropriate state variable for monitoring (e.g., species richness, occupancy, abundance). These represent two critical, yet often overlooked, steps in the development of wild bee monitoring projects. As with all forms of demographic monitoring, practitioners who are interested in estimating species occupancy will need to develop a sampling scheme tailored to meet their monitoring objectives. Defining key sampling terms will provide the architecture of their scheme, including the Area of Interest, Sampling Unit, Season, and Replicate Survey. We also highlight data standards, including core data fields that must be collected during Surveys for bee occupancy data and additional, recommended data fields. We illustrate how these monitoring concepts are being applied to the design of a real-world monitoring project for the federally endangered rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis Cresson). This framework was developed in association with the U.S. National Native Bee Monitoring Network. 

Released March 03, 2025 09:34 EST

2025, Ecology Letters (28)

Joseph Michael Eisaguirre, Medeleine G. Lohman, Graham G. Frye, Heather E. Johnson, Thomas V. Riecke, Perry J. Williams

Mortality risk for animals often varies spatially and can be linked to how animals use landscapes. While numerous studies collect telemetry data on animals, the focus is typically on the period when animals are alive, even though there is important information that could be gleaned about mortality risk. We introduce a thinned spatial point process (SPP) modelling framework that couples relative abundance and space use with a mortality process to formally treat the occurrence of mortality events across the landscape as a spatial process. We show how this model can be embedded in a hierarchical statistical framework and fit to telemetry data to make inferences about how spatial covariates drive both space use and mortality risk. We apply the method to two data sets to study the effects of roads and habitat on spatially explicit mortality risk: (1) VHF telemetry data collected for willow ptarmigan in Alaska, and (2) hourly GPS telemetry data collected for black bears in Colorado. These case studies demonstrate the applicability of this method for different species and data types, making it broadly useful in enabling inferences about the mechanisms influencing animal survival and spatial population processes while formally treating survival as a spatial process, especially as the development and implementation of joint analyses continue to progress.

Released March 03, 2025 09:20 EST

2025, Data Report 1208

Gregory J. Walsh, Nicholas E. Powell

Bedrock roadcuts developed with blasting along the New Hampshire State Route 111 bypass in Windham expose the metasedimentary Silurian Berwick Formation and intrusions of multiple phases of foliated to nonfoliated granite to granitic pegmatite of the Devonian New Hampshire Plutonic Suite. Fracture characterization at two roadway rock cuts (roadcuts) included measurement of fractures over a distance of approximately 225 and 85 meters. The Berwick Formation consists of medium-gray biotite-plagioclase-quartz granofels, biotite schist, and lesser calc-silicate rock. The Berwick Formation is locally sulfidic. Fresh, unweathered roadcuts are mostly gray but exhibit locally rusty weathering. The most conspicuous foliation in the region around the studied roadcuts is steeply northwest dipping to subvertical and northeast-southwest striking. Regionally, the strike of the foliation is consistently to the northeast-southwest, but the dip is locally variable to both the southeast and northwest. About 8 percent of the observed foliation surfaces exhibit limited fracture parting. The limited degree of parting agrees with observations for rocks within the garnet zone of metamorphism elsewhere in the Windham 7.5-minute quadrangle. The most prominent fracture trend is subvertical to steeply northeast-dipping and northwest-southeast striking (strike and dip of about 295°, 80°). The peak trend of steeply dipping fractures at the two exposures is 295°±12° and 289°±6°. Veins observed in the granite occur parallel to the peak fracture trend and consist primarily of quartz, tourmaline, and ankerite with minor amounts of sulfides (arsenopyrite, galena, and rare sphalerite), and trace amounts of apatite and rutile. The observed peak fracture trend at these roadcuts closely agrees with the most prominent fracture trend recognized within the Windham quadrangle. Gently south- to southeast-dipping and east- to northeast-striking fractures occur as joints and as parting fractures along a weak S₃ cleavage. Water-bearing fractures at one exposure occur along joints and gently dipping contacts between the Berwick Formation and the granite to granitic pegmatite of the New Hampshire Plutonic Suite. About 8 percent of the fractures are water-bearing and most water-bearing fractures are gently dipping to the southeast. Fracture data separated by rock type shows a similar distribution for steeply dipping northwest-striking trends, but with much fewer observed steeply north-dipping fractures in the granitic rocks. Both rock types show a cluster of gently south-dipping fractures. The granites show far fewer steeply dipping northeast-striking fractures, which reflects a greater degree of parting along the foliation in the metasedimentary rocks than in the granites. No foliation-parallel fractures were observed in the granites, but some contacts between granites and the Berwick Formation do exhibit parting. Fracture termination classification yields 3 percent abutting, 76 percent dead end, and 21 percent crossing (or throughgoing) fractures.

Six brittle faults were observed, which strike northeast and most dip steeply to the northwest. Calculated paleostress tensors for the faults show an average stress field that is consistent with Late Triassic to Early Jurassic northwest-southeast extension associated with rifting of the New England crust during the initial opening of the Atlantic Basin. Fault data are consistent with brittle reactivation of the northeast striking and northwest dipping dominant foliation.

Released March 03, 2025 08:35 EST

2025, Cold Regions Science and Technology (231)

James W. Dillon, Erich Peitzsch, Zachary Miller, Perry Bartelt, Kevin D. Hammonds

Glide avalanches present a significant and repetitive challenge to many operational forecasting programs, and they are likely to become more frequent. While the spatial location of glide release areas is extremely consistent, the onset of glide avalanche release is notoriously difficult to forecast, and their destructive potential can be immense. Thus, the timing and dynamics of glide avalanches is an important area of study. To better understand these processes, and to improve assessments of risk to transportation corridors and infrastructure, event documentation is key. Here, we survey a large glide avalanche event along the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, during road opening operations in the spring of 2022. Using three sets of terrestrial lidar data (pre-event, post-event, and snow-off), we quantified key aspects of the avalanche and created powerful visualizations for analysis. Further, we evaluated meteorological data from automated weather stations between the onset of glide cracking and avalanche release. Last, we synthesized lidar data with a numerical dynamics model to replicate the event in a simulated environment. Using the tuned model, we determined the critical mean snow depth in the release area necessary for an avalanche to reach the road (4.2 m). Our method may be of particular use for glide avalanches, which tend to release in roughly the same place and time each year at a known interface. This could make the calculated critical depths more consistently reliable and preclude the need for additional tuning in dynamics models. As 1) lidar technology continues to improve and reduce in cost, 2) transportation corridors continue to extend into avalanche terrain, and 3) glide avalanches potentially become increasingly frequent, the synthesis outlined here provides a valuable tool for operational forecasters considering infrastructure threatened by glide events.

Released March 03, 2025 08:32 EST

2025, Rangeland Ecology & Management (99) 77-87

Matthew B. Rigge, Brett Bunde, Sarah E. McCord, Georgia Harrison, Timothy J. Assal, James L. Smith

Geospatial products such as fractional vegetation cover maps often report overall, pixel-wise accuracy, but decision-making with these products often occurs at coarser scales. As such, data users often desire guidance on the appropriate spatial scale to apply these data. We worked toward establishing this guidance by assessing RCMAP (Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection) accuracy relative to a series of high-resolution predictions of component cover. We scale the 2-m and RCMAP predictions to various focal window sizes scales ranging from 30 to 1 500 m using focal averaging. We also evaluated variation in scaling effects on error at ecoregion and pasture (mean area of 1 050 ha) scales. Our results demonstrate increased accuracy at broader windows, across all components, and most increases in accuracy level off at ∼200–600 m scales. At the scale with highest accuracy, cross-component average correlation (r) increased by 6.5%, and root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced 46.4% relative to 30-m scale data. Scaling-related improvements to accuracy were greatest in components such as shrub and tree with more spatially heterogeneous cover and in ecoregions with more spatially heterogenous cover. When components were aggregated at the pasture scale, r increased 10% and RMSE decreased 34.3% on average relative to the 30-m scale. Our results provide empirical data on the scale dependence of error, which fractional cover data users may consider alongside their needs when using these data. Although the general principle remains that remotely sensed products are intended to address landscape-scale questions, our analysis indicates that applying data at finer than landscape spatial scales and grouping even a handful of pixels resulted in lowered error compared to pixel-level comparisons. Our results quantify the trade-offs between data granularity and error related to scale for fractional vegetation cover.

Released March 03, 2025 08:17 EST

2025, Journal of Hazardous Materials (485)

Alain Manceau, Paco Bustamante, Etienne Richy, Yves Cherel, Sarah E. Janssen, Pieter Glatzel, Brett A. Poulin

Apex marine predators, such as toothed whales and large petrels and albatrosses, ingest mercury (Hg) primarily in the form of methylmercury (MeHg) via prey consumption, which they detoxify as tiemannite (HgSe). One of the most intriguing current questions in Hg research is how more abundant lower trophic level predators detoxify MeHg, particularly in marine environments where tissue Hg burdens can be elevated. To address this need, we used high energy-resolution X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy paired with nitrogen (N) and Hg stable isotopes to identify the chemical forms of Hg, Hg source, and species-specific δ²⁰²Hg isotopic values in emperor penguin, a mesopredator feeding primarily on Antarctic silverfish. The penguin liver contains variable proportions of MeHg and two inorganic Hg species (IHg), Hg-dithiolate (Hg(SR)₂) and Hg-tetraselenolate (Hg(Sec)₄) complexes, each characterized by a specific isotopic value (δ²⁰²MeHg = 0.3 ± 0.2‰, δ²⁰²Hg(SR)₂ = −1.6 ± 0.2‰, δ²⁰²Hg(Sec)₄ = −2.0 ± 0.1‰). Using δ¹⁵N as tracer of food source, we show that Hg(SR)₂ is not dietary but a biochemical demethylation product of MeHg metabolism. Penguin females transfer Hg to the egg as MeHg in the egg albumen, 89% MeHg and 11% IHg in the membrane, and 32% MeHg and 68% Hg(Sec)₄ in the yolk, on average (n = 15). Despite IHg species in eggs, MeHg is the main species quantitatively transferred by the mother to the chick because of the disproportionate mass of the MeHg-rich albumen compared to the yolk (n = 18). Further research is needed to elucidate the MeHg to Hg(SR)₂ demethylation pathway firmly documented here for the first time in multicellular organisms, and to understand why the thiolate ligands are not exchanged for Se ligands to form Hg(Sec)₄, as the liver does not suffer from Se deficiency.

Released March 03, 2025 08:10 EST

2025, Agricultural Water Management (309)

Lei Ji, Gabriel B. Senay, MacKenzie Friedrichs, Stefanie Kagone

Estimation of irrigation water use provides essential information for the management and conservation of agricultural water resources. Conventionally, water use data are created based on reports and surveys from water users, whereas manual records may not be complete due to lacking flow meters, measurement gaps, inconsistent methods across regions, and time- and cost-consuming data processing. Alternatively, spatially explicit estimation of irrigation water use can be conducted efficiently using remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) modeling approaches. In this study, we created a gridded blue water evapotranspiration (BWET) dataset to estimate historical irrigation water consumption (1986 – 2020) in the croplands across the United States High Plains aquifer region. The BWET data were generated by integrating an energy-balance ET model [Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop)] and a water-balance ET model [Vegetation ET model (VegET)]. BWET in croplands indicates crop consumptive use of irrigation water extracted from surface water and groundwater resources. The BWET estimates were compared with reported irrigation water use data for all counties within the aquifer region. The results revealed high agreement between growing season (May – September) BWET and annual water withdrawal at county level. Specifically, correlation coefficients of volumetric BWET and water withdrawal were 0.90 and 0.96, respectively, for the entire aquifer region and western Kansas. The timeseries of BWET and water withdrawal showed similar temporal trends and high covariations. The BWET estimates were systematically lower than the water withdrawal measurements, which was primarily attributed to blue water losses in the irrigation system. The irrigation efficiency, calculated as the ratio of BWET to water withdrawal depth, was 0.57 and 0.74 for the entire aquifer region and western Kansas, respectively. This study demonstrates the capability of using satellite-based ET models (e.g., SSEBop and VegET) to efficiently estimate crop water consumption and evaluate irrigation efficiency at landscape, county, and regional scales.

Released March 03, 2025 07:54 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Spencer R. Roop, Keith Reinhardt, Ken A. Aho, Matthew Germino, Bryce A. Richardson

Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) is a widespread and locally dominant shrub throughout many ecosystems in western North America. A. tridentata ssps. tridentata and wyomingensis are two subspecies whose populations occupy the warm-arid regions of the species range and whose trailing edge is threatened by climate change. Previous studies have presented conflicting results in relation to the genetic control of physiological variation in A. tridentata. Understanding how different genetic factors contribute to physiological variation can provide insight into how these two subspecies may respond to future climate change. To explore possible variation among and within two subspecies of A. tridentata, we measured physiological and morphological traits in A. t. tridentata and A. t. wyomingensis during mid-summer (July), seven years after establishment in a common garden. Contributions to trait variation were quantified for both genetic (subspecies and cytotype) and environmental (climate-of-origin) factors. Measurements revealed an unequal contribution to phenotypic variation by subspecies, cytotype, and climate-of-origin. Ploidy and climate-of-origin were more important than subspecies in driving phenotypic variation in A. tridentata. These findings suggest that A. tridentata has a highly plastic drought response, or that culling (mortality over time due to environmental factors) in the common garden over seven years has led to a lack of genetic diversity within the garden. Understanding what factors drive phenotypic expression in big sagebrush can provide better insight into how climate change may affect migration and extirpation and may aid in the effectiveness of restoration efforts.

Released March 01, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (969)

Angie Lenard, Therese Burns, Michelle Hladik, Kaylene Keller, Samantha Marcum, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Matthew L. Forister

An important goal for the applied ecological sciences is to understand the extent to which the biodiversity on conserved or managed lands is exposed to anthropogenic stressors. Among the various categories of conserved lands in the United States, the National Wildlife Refuge System is focused on the protection and management of native wildlife and plant populations. Refuge lands can be associated with wetlands and, especially in California, tend to be near areas of intense human use, including agriculture. The proximity of refuges to cultivated lands results in potential exposure to pesticide drift, which increases the possibility of non-target effects on plants and wildlife. We used a passive sampler approach to quantify aerial pesticide deposition during 28 days in spring of 2023, across five refuges in the Sacramento Valley of California. Pesticides were detected across all refuges and plots within the study area, with 36 individual compounds identified, including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides, from 176 silicone bands from 49 plots. Distance to agriculture was not an important predictor in our models for most indices of contamination. However, our models revealed that the nearest crop type was an important mediator of the importance of distance to agriculture, as fungicide contamination decreased with distance to agriculture only when orchards were the nearest crop type. The overall lack of distance effects suggests that the interior of refuges in the study area do not necessarily provide more protection from pesticides than refuge edges, although larger refuges could offer more protection. We currently lack information on how the level of contamination found herein is biologically relevant to wildlife, and ongoing monitoring efforts have found productive communities of insects in the study area. The results of this study provide a foundation for future investigations on refuges to analyze impacts of specific pesticide compounds on plants and wildlife.

Released February 28, 2025 10:44 EST

2025, Marine Geology (483)

Stephen C. Phillips, Joel E. Johnson, William Clyde, Wei-Li Hong, Jacob Setera, Marta E. Torres

We investigated sediment core records from the Cascadia Margin (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1249 and 1252 at Hydrate Ridge; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1325 offshore Vancouver Island) using a Zr/Rb heavy mineral proxy from X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning to identify intervals of primary detrital magnetic susceptibility (κ) and predict intervals where diagenesis caused magnetite dissolution by hydrogen sulfide. We also measured total sulfur (TS) content, grain size distributions, total organic carbon (TOC) content, and the magnetic mineral assemblage to further constrain the role of diagenesis on κ. Understanding how κ can be used to better characterize the varied effects of detrital and diagenetic signals in marine settings is important for understanding biogeochemical cycling and records of paleoenvironmental change. The upper 100 m of slope basin Site 1252 contains multiple intervals (> 90 m total) of decreased κ correlated with elevated TS content, consistent with dissolution of magnetite and precipitation of pyrite, iron monosulfides, and/or elemental sulfur. Similarly at the other slope basin site, Site U1325, κ is lower and TS is elevated in the interval between 24 and 51 mbsf, due to sulfide formation. At both slope basin sites, these low κ intervals correspond with high TOC, suggesting the possibility that organoclastic sulfate reduction (OSR) is likely a major driver of diagenetic alteration of κ at these sites. High TS:TOC ratios at Site U1325 suggests anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) during sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) migration may have contributed to alteration of κ. In contrast, within the upper 90 m of Site 1249, a methane seep site at the summit of Hydrate Ridge, κ is almost entirely altered by diagenetic processes, with much of the low κ explained by a high degree of iron sulfide formation, while some intervals are affected by precipitation of magnetic iron sulfides that maintain or even increase κ. The presence of abundant methane seepage and gas hydrate as well as chemosynthetic seafloor fauna at this site, suggests that sulfide is released to the water column and AOM, rather than OSR, drives diagenetic alteration of κ at this site. Overall, the slope basin sites show episodic variation of κ that is influenced by TOC content, likely driven by changes in marine primary productivity and sedimentation rate, while the seep site shows consistently altered κ with lower TS content and no correlation with TOC. Methane seep environments likely experience loss of hydrogen sulfide to the water column and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide by seafloor seep fauna, which limits the amount of solid phase sulfur (pyrite, iron monosulfides, elemental sulfur) that can be precipitated within the sediments. In contrast, the migration of a buried SMTZ at slope basin sites results in enhanced sulfur precipitation within the sediments. This integrated magnetic and geochemical approach reveals the diagenetic production pathway and residence time of sulfide with the sediment column ultimately controls the style and degree of diagenetic loss of κ in marine sediments. This approach works best in environments with unaltered reference intervals/sites, consistent magnetic mineralogy, and clay-to-silt grain sizes.

Released February 28, 2025 09:39 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1006

Md Obaidul Haque, Md Nahid Hasan, Ashish Shrestha, Rajagopalan Rengarajan, Mark Lubke, Jerad L. Shaw, Kathryn Ruslander, Esad Micijevic, Michael J. Choate, Cody Anderson, Jeff Clauson, Kurt Thome, Ed Kaita, Raviv Levy, Jeff Miller, Leibo Ding

Executive Summary 

The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level.

This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 3 (July–September) of 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website at https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov.

Released February 28, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (969)

John Wheeler, Gabrielle Pecora Black, Michelle Hladik, Corey Sanders, Jennifer Teerlink, Luann Wong, Xuyang Zhang, Robert Budd, Thomas M Young

Pesticides are prevalent in wastewater, yet few studies have measured pesticides in biosolids and aqueous media from samples collected concurrently. Seventeen California wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were sampled in May 2020. Biosolids samples were analyzed for 27 analytes, and paired aqueous samples (influent and effluent) were analyzed for 23 analytes. Analytes included fipronil and its transformation products (fiproles), pyrethroids, novaluron, and several other pesticides with down-the-drain transport potential. Of the 27 compounds analyzed in biosolids samples, 16 were detected in at least one sample, and 10 had a detection frequency (DF) of at least 25 %. Fipronil sulfone, fipronil sulfide, and fipronil were the most frequently detected fiproles (DF = 100 %, 94 %, and 67 %, respectively); permethrin was the most frequently detected pyrethroid (DF = 100 %), followed by bifenthrin (DF = 94 %), cyhalothrin (DF = 89 %), and etofenprox (DF = 78 %). To elucidate fipronil transformation pathways within the treatment system, data from the three sample types were compared; findings were generally consistent with transformation pathways reported previously (e.g., some fiproles were rarely detected in influent or biosolids, but frequently detected in effluent, indicating their formation during the treatment process). No correlations were found between WWTP characteristics and pesticide concentrations in biosolids. The fraction of organic carbon (f_OC) of each biosolids sample was measured, and a statistically significant negative correlation was observed between f_OC and some fiproles, but not fipronil; possible explanations are discussed. Additional analysis for two major agricultural pesticides (bifenthrin and permethrin) indicated that estimated mass loads of these pesticides in biosolids applied to land as a soil amendment are minimal (approximately 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower) compared to inputs from agricultural applications. This study provides insight on the magnitude of pesticides entering the environment via land-applied biosolids; existing regulations surrounding agricultural pesticide applications are expected to also be protective of the relatively low inputs from biosolids.

Released February 28, 2025 08:38 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Rosemary W.H. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning, Kenneth H. Williams

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Released February 28, 2025 08:35 EST

2025, Preprint

Johanna Alexandra Harvey, Andrew M. Ramey, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Gregory Robertson, Marc Romano, Jennifer M. Mullinax, Megan Boldenow, Philip W. Atkinson, Diann Prosser

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document event scales and inform population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability which will increase the ability to robustly estimate mortality, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, mortality spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods, that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible, are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

Released February 27, 2025 11:50 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1003

Cecily J. Wolfe, Natalia A. Ruppert, Douglas D. Given, Michael E. West, Valerie I. Thomas, Jessica R. Murray, Ronni Grapenthin

Executive Summary

The conference report accompanying the fiscal year (FY) 2022 Consolidated Appropriations Act (Public Law 117–103) for the U.S. Department of the Interior and related agencies directed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to “work with the State of Alaska to develop an implementation plan to be completed within two years in order to put ShakeAlert/Earthquake Early Warning in Alaska” (p. 29). Congress included $1 million in the FY 2022 appropriation to conduct this effort.

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, along with partner organizations, has developed the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast, which currently operates in California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system and its alert delivery partners is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by delivering ShakeAlert-powered alerts that are transmitted to the public via mass notification technologies, and by providing more detailed data streams to institutional users and commercial service providers to trigger automated, user-specific, protective actions.

ShakeAlert was designed in such a way that it could be expanded to other U.S. regions with high earthquake risk, after the build-out of seismic and geodetic networks to support ShakeAlert in a specified region is completed and the necessary funding is secured for long-term operation and maintenance.

When an earthquake occurs, seismic waves radiate from the rupturing fault like waves on a pond. It is these waves that people feel as earthquake shaking and that can cause damage to structures. Using networks of ground-motion sensors and sophisticated computer algorithms, ShakeAlert can detect an earthquake seconds after it begins, calculate its location and magnitude, and estimate the resulting intensity of shaking. Early warnings of impending shaking are then sent to people and systems that may experience damaging shaking, allowing them to take appropriate protective actions. Depending on the user’s distance from the earthquake, alerts may be delivered before, during, or after the arrival of strong shaking. There will almost always be a region near the earthquake epicenter where alerts arrive after damaging shaking has begun. The ShakeAlert system updates its ground-motion estimates as an earthquake grows larger.

In response to the FY 2022 congressional direction, the USGS worked with the State of Alaska to devise this implementation plan for ShakeAlert expansion to Alaska. The USGS engaged with the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHS&EM) and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (DGGS). A cooperative agreement was awarded to the Alaska Earthquake Center (AEC) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) for their contributions to the plan and their work coordinating with other networks in Alaska. The USGS engaged with the Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission (ASHSC) throughout the process. The USGS also held a series of Alaska stakeholder engagements. The process of developing the implementation plan was facilitated by contracted staff from Corner Alliance, which is a government consulting firm.

This implementation plan describes the details and estimates the costs for a Phase 1 expansion of the ShakeAlert system to Alaska. A geographically limited Phase 1 goal was chosen that covers the highest risk and most populated areas of Alaska. The areas proposed encompass the State’s main population centers and 90 percent of the State’s population. This Phase 1 design is considered very challenging and ambitious from the viewpoint of network operators. The lessons learned if this plan is implemented could be used to consider subsequent phases to expand EEW beyond Phase 1 in Alaska in the future.

ShakeAlert is built on the foundation of the sensor networks and data processing infrastructure of the USGS-led Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). This implementation plan calls for a total of 450 high-quality, real-time EEW-capable ANSS seismic stations in Alaska: 270 new stations, 160 upgraded stations, and 20 existing stations. These seismic station numbers are based on a station spacing of 10 kilometers (km) in urban areas, 20 km in seismic source areas that endanger population centers, and 40 km in other areas. The associated costs also include support for some EEW-capable global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations, with a focus on improving warnings for large subduction zone earthquakes. For effective EEW, ShakeAlert requires low-latency, high-availability, robust telemetry links to deliver continuous, real-time data from field stations to the data centers.

The Alaska data processing hardware infrastructure would follow the general design for fail-safe operation that is used for the ShakeAlert system on the West Coast. The ShakeAlert architecture uses two independent layers: the production layer for earthquake processing and the alert layer to make alerting decisions and serve alerts to users. This implementation plan includes two geographically separated data centers in Alaska, each with two fully independent production and alert layers using the same system design developed for the West Coast. As of March 2024, the ShakeAlert system is at version 3.0.1, with more advanced versions in the development and testing pipeline. ShakeAlert originally used two algorithms to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes using seismic data. A third algorithm that can calculate very large magnitudes of very large earthquakes with geodetic data was added in March 2024.

ShakeAlert publishes several data and alert products to meet the needs of different users. All messages include the location of the earthquake, either as a point or a line, and its magnitude. Ground-shaking estimates are published in two forms, as ground-motion contours and a map grid. Providing adequate warning time for strong shaking (the “target threshold”) requires sending alerts at a threshold lower than that strong shaking level (the “alert threshold”). The thresholds for public alerting in Alaska would be a joint USGS and State decision.

To have the greatest benefit, ShakeAlert-powered alerts would be delivered to institutional users and individuals by all practical pathways. The USGS alert layer can support thousands of institutional users and alert redistributors, but the USGS does not have the mission nor the infrastructure and expertise to perform mass notifications to the public or implement automatic actions for end users of the alerts. To meet this need, ShakeAlert recruits private sector “technology enablers” that have the necessary expertise to develop end-user implementations using EEW alerts with the goal of stimulating an EEW industry.

Earthquake early warning alerts are useless if people do not know how to respond to them. Although the alert messages include instructions about what to do (drop, cover, and hold on), alerts are more effective if people have been trained in advance. Messages about ShakeAlert’s capabilities, limitations, and benefits could be integrated with existing earthquake education programs, including State-run programs. Therefore, ShakeAlert would coordinate with both public and private partners and stakeholders through various partnerships and agreements to accomplish consistent and ongoing public earthquake hazard education.

The estimated capital cost of completing the computing infrastructure and sensor networks for the Phase 1 ShakeAlert expansion to Alaska is approximately $66 million in 2024 dollars. The annual operation and maintenance cost of the completed system is estimated to be $12 million per year in 2024 dollars when fully built out.

Released February 27, 2025 09:10 EST

2025, Seismica (4)

Alexander R. Blanchette, Simon L. Klemperer, Walter D. Mooney, Turki A. Sehli

Harrat Lunayyir is a volcanic field in Saudi Arabia that experienced a Mw~5.4 earthquake driven by an upper-crustal dike intrusion in May 2009. This volcanic field has exhibited numerous forms of volcanic seismicity both prior to and since the 2009 dike intrusion. Significantly, earthquakes within the lithospheric mantle and, rarely, the lower crust are present in the two-decade long seismicity catalog of Harrat Lunayyir. Here we analyze 24 years of volcanic seismicity at Harrat Lunayyir from 1998 to 2022. We find that: 1) precursory seismicity began at least eight years prior to the 2009 event, with a particularly notable seismic episode one year prior; 2) lithospheric mantle seismicity is highly localized in space and in time, largely occurring in discrete sequences lasting on the order of a few hours to a few days; 3) one seismic sequence clearly migrates upward from the lithospheric mantle to the upper crust, including seismicity within the nominally ductile lower crust; 4) crustal seismicity has been slowly declining over time; and 5) lithospheric-mantle seismicity does not show any apparent decline with time. From these observations we infer that the seismicity is driven by magmatic fluids or volatiles, and seismic monitoring of this volcanic field should continue into the future.

Released February 27, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Environmental Science & Technology

Eric Sjostedt, Richard Rushforth, Vincent Tidwell, Melissa A. Harris, Ryan McManamay, Landon Marston

Thermoelectric power generation accounts for over 41% of total U.S. freshwater withdrawals, making understanding the determinants of power plants’ water withdrawals (WW) and consumption (WC) critical for reducing the sector’s reliance on increasingly scarce water resources. However, reported data inconsistencies and incomplete analysis of potential determinants of thermoelectric water use hinder such understanding. We address these challenges by introducing a novel data filtering method and a more complete assessment of water use determinants. First, we applied a power-cooling ratio as an operations-based data filter that removed operationally implausible records while retaining more original data, outperforming previous statistical filtering methods. Second, we found that different water use reporting methods (WURMs) provided statistically significantly different WW and WC values, revealing the importance of this previously unrecognized feature in reported water use records. Third, our data-driven approach showed that traditionally emphasized features─such as cooling technology and gross generation─are of primary importance but can be surpassed by other, often overlooked, features when modeling WW or WC individually. The plant configuration, cooling technology, and gross generation were the most important features of WW, whereas WURM, cooling technology, and reporting month were the most important for WC. These findings can improve thermoelectric power plant management, water use reporting accuracy, and water use modeling.

Released February 26, 2025 09:24 EST

2025, Ecological Monographs (95)

Daniel A. Grear, Michael J. Adams, Adam R. Backlin, William Barichivich, Adrianne Brand, Gary M. Bucciarelli, Daniel L. Calhoun, Tara Chestnut, Jon D Davenport, Andrew E Dietrich, Graziella V. DiRenzo, Robert N. Fisher, Brad Glorioso, Evan H. Campbell Grant, Brian J. Halstead, Marc P Hayes, Blake R. Hossack, Morgan Kain, Patrick M. Kleeman, Jeffrey M. Lorch, Brome McCreary, David A.W. Miller, Brittany A. Mosher, Erin L. Muths, Christopher Pearl, Charles H. Robinson, Mark Roth, Jennifer Rowe, Walter Sadinski, Brent H. Sigafus, Iga Stasiak, Samuel Sweet, Hardin Waddle, Susan Walls, Gregory J Watkins-Colwell, Lori A Williams, Megan Winzeler

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a globally distributed fungal pathogen of amphibians that has contributed to one of the largest disease-related biodiversity losses in wildlife. Bd is regularly viewed through the lens of a global wildlife epizootic because the spread of highly virulent genetic lineages has resulted in well-documented declines and extinctions of multiple amphibian species. However, the current state of Bd occurrence, host range, host impacts, and ecological drivers remains poorly understood outside of the most negatively affected amphibian species and regions. Our objective was to describe the macroecology of Bd occurrence and infection intensity on caudates (salamanders) across the United States and to compare these patterns with better-studied anurans (frogs and toads). We collected swabs from 11,183 amphibians at 609 sites from 54 species across the United States from 2015 to 2017. We analyzed the prevalence and intensity of Bd infection jointly using a Bayesian hurdle model with covariates of site-level temperature and precipitation, as well as individual characteristics and species identification. Bd was distributed widely across sites and species sampled across the spatial extent of the conterminous United States. We found that Bd prevalence and intensity were most strongly influenced by temperature in the month preceding sampling and by differences among taxon groups. We estimated that temperature had a strong and nonlinear influence on both Bd prevalence and intensity with peak infection at intermediate temperatures and lower infection at low and high temperatures. We found Caudate hosts tended to have higher prevalence than Anuran hosts and Anuran hosts tended to have higher intensity at optimal temperatures for Bd infection. Our findings suggest that Bd has an amphibian-wide host range, temperature gradients exert a strong influence on Bd, and enzootic transmission likely encompasses a much larger spatial and species distribution than previously recognized across North America.

Released February 25, 2025 14:49 EST

2025, Journal of Fish Biology

Tammy Michelle Wilson, Matthew Ross Acre, Fred Williams III, Robin D. Calfee, Christine M. Mayer, Robert L. Mapes, Chris M. Kemp, Ryan T. Young, Michael E. Byrne

Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) are nonnative, herbivorous freshwater fish that represent an ecological threat in North American waters. However, data are limited on reproductive biology specific to wild populations in midwestern North America, despite recent concern for grass carp establishment within the Great Lakes. Basic information on reproductive traits could be useful to determine reproductive potential, inform future population modelling and provide information to aid control efforts. Our objectives were to evaluate grass carp age-at-maturity, spawning season timing, fecundity type, developmental timing and spawning strategy. Additionally, we evaluated the reliability of the gonadosomatic index (GSI) as a proxy for identifying mature grass carp and compared body condition across study areas. We sampled grass carp in portions of the Mississippi River watershed within the state of Missouri and within the Lake Erie basin. Based on gonad histological samples (n = 274), grass carp are batch spawners with indeterminate fecundity and asynchronous ovarian developmental timing. This allows flexibility in their spawning, exemplified by a protracted spawning season in Lake Erie (April to November) in temperatures ranging from 12.3 to 27.3°C. Minimum observed age-at-maturity for females in Missouri and for both males and females in the Lake Erie population was age-3 and age-2 for males in Missouri. Accuracy of GSI as a measure of maturity during the spawning season was 89.7% and 87.5%, for females and males, respectively. Compared to Missouri, grass carp in Lake Erie had a significantly higher body condition, and females ready to spawn had significantly higher GSI values, suggesting that the grass carp in Lake Erie are healthier and more fecund relative to Missouri and, if left uncontrolled, potentially have a high probability of establishment within the Great Lakes. The results of this study will allow managers to identify the reproductive status of grass carp in the field and more accurately estimate populations and reproductive potential.

Released February 25, 2025 09:34 EST

2025, Conservation Biology

Kristen S. Ellis, Clint R.V. Otto, Larissa L. Bailey, Tamara A. Smith, Steven J. Choy, Lauren Hatch

There is growing interest in integrating community science data with structured monitoring data to estimate changes in distribution patterns of imperiled species, including pollinators. However, significant challenges remain in determining how unstructured community science data should be incorporated into formal analyses of species distributions. We developed a dynamic framework for combining community science and structured monitoring data of bumble bees to estimate changes in occupancy of rusty-patched bumble bees (Bombus affinis), a federally endangered species in the United States. We applied traditional metapopulation theory and accounted for imperfect detection to estimate site-specific extirpation risk and colonization rates across the known distribution of B. affinis in the Upper Midwest (USA). Despite a 144% increase in presence-only detections from 2017 to 2022, occupancy probabilities and the estimated number of occupied sites remained static or declined slightly across a 4-state region during this period. Our results provide preliminary evidence that the probability of local extirpation risk of B. affinis increased in response to drought, but that effect was tempered with a high number of neighboring patches occupied by B. affinis (i.e., rescue effect). Our framework can be used by managers to track population recovery goals for B. affinis and other bumble bees of conservation concern. In addition, our study highlights the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and addressing spatial sampling biases in bumble bee monitoring efforts, particularly those for which a portion of the monitoring data are generated from community science projects.

Released February 25, 2025 07:46 EST

2025, Applied Computing and Geosciences

Jordan Edward Lubbers, Adam J.R. Kent, Chris Russo

Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) data has a wide variety of uses in the geosciences for in-situ chemical analysis of complex natural materials. Improvements to instrument capabilities and operating software have drastically reduced the time required to generate large volumes of data relative to previous methodologies. Raw data from LA-ICP-MS, however, is in counts per unit time (typically counts per second), not elemental concentrations and converting these count ratesto concentrations requires additional processing. For complex materials where the ablated volume may contain a range of material compositions, a moderate amount of user input is also required if appropriate concentrations are to be accurately calculated. In geologic materials such as glasses and minerals that potentially have numerous heterogeneities (e.g., microlites or other inclusions) within them, this is typically determiningwhether the total ablation signal should be filtered to remove these heterogeneities. This necessitates that the LA-ICP-MS data processing pipeline is one that is not automated, but is also designed to enable rapid and efficient processing of large volumes of data.

Here we introduce  , a Python library for the time resolved analysis of LA-ICP-MS data. We outline its mathematical theory, code structure, and provide an example of how it can be used to provide the time resolved analysis necessitated by LA-ICP-MS data of complex geologic materials. Throughout the  pipeline we show how metadata and data are incrementally added to the objects created such that virtually any aspect of an experiment may be interrogated and its quality assessed. We also show, that when combined with other Python libraries for building graphical user interfaces, it can be utilized outside of a pure scripting environment.  can be found at https://doi.org/10.5066/P1DZUR3Z

Released February 24, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association (61)

Brian S. Caruso, Lauren Ellissa Eng, Andrew R. Bock, Nicholas Graff Hall

This study evaluated hydroclimate projections and effects on runoff at National Wildlife Refuges in a semiarid region of the western United States (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6) using mean air temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT) inputs and runoff (RO) output from a national application of a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM). An ensemble of statistically downscaled global circulation models for two future emissions scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and 5) were assessed at the refuges for the years 1950–2099. TAVE, PPT, and RO and departures from mean baseline conditions were analyzed from MWBM hydrologic response units within refuge boundaries. Seasonal results were evaluated across four periods: historical (1951–1969), baseline (1981–1999), 2050 (2041–2059), and 2080 (2071–2089). Projected TAVE increases for all refuges and time periods, whereas PPT and RO are much more variable across ecoregions. Using the high emission scenario, summer mean monthly TAVE increases range from 4.8°C to 5.5°C by 2080. Summer mean monthly PPT departures vary from −5.7 to 3.9 mm (up to 14% decrease), with decreases at 41% of refuges. Summer RO departures range from −16.7 to 0.2 mm (up to 60% decrease), with decreases at 71% of refuges. Under the same emission scenario, winter PPT and RO increase at most refuges by 2080. These variable departures will create substantial challenges for future conservation management in the region.

Released February 22, 2025 08:50 EST

2025, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Benjamin J. Spitz, Graham F. Montague, Joseph Schmitt, Francesco Guzzo, Peter I. Jenkins

Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, an important apex predator native to Lake Erie, were extirpated by 1965 due to overexploitation, introduction of invasive species, and habitat degradation. Cooperative lake-wide lake trout stocking has been ongoing since 1982, with stocking strategies adapting as research identifies the age at stocking, locations, and strains that optimize the recovery of lake trout. Despite these efforts, limited evidence of lake trout spawning has been documented in the western half of Lake Erie. On 20 November 2023, n = 99 lake trout were captured via gillnet in Fairport Harbor, Ohio. This sample consisted largely of ripe adults (79.4 %) that were likely spawning within the vicinity of Fairport Harbor. Coded wire tags recovered from these fish revealed that most of these lake trout had been stocked in Fairport Harbor (99.0 %), were of the Seneca Lake strain (92.7 %), and were stocked as age-1 fish (93.7 %). This study demonstrates the survival of fish from Fairport Harbor stockings, suggests evidence of stocking-site fidelity, supports the stocking of the Seneca Lake strain, and suggests that stocking age-1 lake trout may have advantages over younger life stages. Most importantly, this study demonstrates that lake trout are likely spawning near Fairport Harbor. These findings can guide future studies that identify lake trout spawning habitat, recruitment bottlenecks, movement, and stocking-site fidelity in Lake Erie and can be used to inform future recovery strategies.

Released February 22, 2025 08:34 EST

2025, International Geology Review

Robert J. Stern, David W. Scholl, Matthew A. Malkowski, Kylara M. Martin, Ginger Barth, Daniel Scheirer

The origin of the Aleutian Basin is unresolved because its crust is deeply buried beneath sediments. It has been interpreted as forming in the Eocene when the Beringian convergent margin jumped seaward to south of the Aleutian arc, thereby capturing a large sector of Cretaceous Pacific crust. Alternatively, it may have formed by backarc spreading. We present new magnetic and seismic reflection data compilations and review other pertinent data to evaluate these two possibilities. Arguments for entrapment are: 1) Palaeomagnetic and geologic data document that the Aleutian arc formed approximately in place and as a seaward, on-strike continuation of the Alaska Peninsula; 2) basin-central spreading anomalies trend N-S, normal to the Aleutian arc and exhibit amplitudes and lengths typically formed at mid-ocean ridges; 3) seismic reflection profiles document that cross-basin depositional sequences are like those expected of filling a fixed-width basin. Arguments for a backarc spreading origin include: 1) The perpendicular orientation of magnetic anomalies in the Aleutian Basin and the northern Pacific Plate suggest different origins; 2) the sub-parallel orientation of Aleutian Basin spreading magnetic fabric and Palaeogene rift basins on the Bering Shelf suggest a common extensional regime; 3) thinner continental crust beneath outer-shelf basins is consistent with extension; 4) lineated magnetic fabrics on the margins of the basin are similar to early rifting magnetic fabrics found in other backarc basins; 5) basin heat flow is consistent with Palaeogene seafloor spreading; 6) its marginal basin setting is analogous to marginal basins elsewhere that formed by extension and seafloor spreading, not entrapment; and 7) entrapment requires formation of the Aleutian subduction zone by transference, a mode of subduction initiation that has not yet been documented. We present evidence for both interpretations and underscore the need for continued data collection (e.g. scientific drilling) to test competing hypotheses. Similar approaches may be useful for understanding thickly sedimented marginal basins elsewhere.

Released February 22, 2025 08:33 EST

2025, Geothermics (129)

Jeff D. Pepin, Erick R. Burns, Ryan Cain Cahalan, Daniel O. Hayba, Jesse E. Dickinson, Leslie L. Duncan, Eve L. Kuniansky

Storing thermal energy underground for later use in electricity production or direct-use heating/cooling is a promising, viable, and economical green energy option. Reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES) is one such option, which stores energy in underutilized permeable strata with low ambient groundwater flow rates and more geochemically evolved (e.g. brackish/saline) waters relative to overlying principal aquifer systems. The U.S. Geological Survey has begun assessing RTES potential nationally by focusing on five generalized geologic regions (Basin and Range, Coastal Plain, Illinois Basin, Michigan Basin, Pacific Northwest) across the United States. Hydrogeologic reservoir models are developed for the following eight metropolitan area cities within those regions to evaluate RTES performance across different climates and subsurface conditions: Albuquerque, New Mexico; Charleston, South Carolina; Chicago and Decatur, Illinois; Lansing, Michigan; Memphis, Tennessee; Phoenix, Arizona; and Portland, Oregon. Evaluated metrics include estimated required well spacing, thermal storage capacity, and thermal recovery efficiency through time. Also considered for each reservoir are potential complicating factors, including reservoir depth, thermally driven free convection, and groundwater salinity. This work focuses on direct-use cooling because the need for cooling modern office buildings greatly exceeds that for heating in most parts of the country (Falta and others, 2016); however, the evaluated metrics are also relevant to heating and electricity applications. Results indicate that favorable RTES conditions exist in each region, with the Coastal Plain and Basin and Range being especially favorable for thermal storage capacity, while the Pacific Northwest and Michigan Basin excel at energy recovery for the evaluated cooling application. The results underscore the utility of developing maps of thermal storage capacity, subsurface temperature models, and volumetric estimates of thermal storage capacity to serve as key RTES resource classification standards. Overall, this pre-assessment provides a basic understanding of RTES potential in several cities and geologic regions throughout the country and will aid ongoing thermal energy storage assessment efforts.

Released February 21, 2025 10:59 EST

2025, Techniques and Methods 14-A3

Mark E. Reid, Dianne L. Brien, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, Jonathan P. Perkins

The software package, Grfin Tools, can estimate potential runout from landslides or inundation from geophysical mass flows such as debris flows, lahars from volcanoes, and rock avalanches within a digital elevation model (DEM). Grfin is an acronym of growth + flow + inundation. The tools within this package apply simple, well-tested, empirical models of runout that are computationally efficient and require minimal parameters. These tools can be used individually (for example, to estimate debris-flow inundation) or in combination to represent a more complete series of linked processes, from landslide source areas, to unchannelized transport, to channelized flows. Grfin Tools can rapidly assess potential runout and inundation over large areas and the results are readily visualized in a geographic information system.

Tools for assessing areas affected by runout and flow inundation include a height-to-length (H/L) ratio, angle-of-reach approach for estimating open-slope, unchannelized landslide runout, and volume-area scaling relations for assessing flow inundation in channels. Potential landslide areas that constitute the sources of runout or inundation can be delineated with topographic features, such as slope and (or) curvature, derived by the software package, or by employing potential sources derived from other landslide susceptibility models. Grfin Tools also has the capability to assess inundation from flows that grow volumetrically downstream. This is a vital feature, as larger flows commonly result in longer runout and larger inundation. The software uses empirically derived growth factors applied over upslope contributing source areas or upstream channel lengths to integrate the effects of various growth processes, such as channel entrainment, streambank failures, adjacent landslides, and hillslope erosion. Inundation follows a drainage network defined with a separate tool that uses topographic curvature to identify channel initiation locations.

This document includes information on using Grfin Tools, the basis and methods underlying the tools and models, detailed descriptions of the software input and output files, and tips for handling special conditions such as roads and large water bodies. Multiple detailed examples illustrating different applications are also presented. Grfin Tools relies on the freely available TauDEM software package (Tarboton, 2005). The Grfin Tools software release is available from Cronkite-Ratcliff and others (2025).

Released February 21, 2025 09:19 EST

2025, Science Advances (11)

Jacob Bryson Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus

Data-driven models widely used for assessing landslide susceptibility are severely limited by the landslide and environmental data needed to create them. They rely on inventories of past landslide locations, which are difficult to collect and often nonrepresentative. Furthermore, susceptibility maps are most needed in regions without the means to assemble an inventory. To overcome these challenges, we develop a method for assessing shallow landslide susceptibility based on a probabilistic morphometric analysis of the landscape’s topography, rather than the characteristics of landslides. The model assumes that hillslopes with higher relief and gradient compared to the surrounding landscape are more prone to landslides. We demonstrate the superior performance of this approach over contrasting data-driven models across the northwestern United States. As our morphometric model only requires elevation data, it overcomes the major limitations of data-driven models and facilitates the creation of effective susceptibility models in areas where it was previously unfeasible.

Released February 20, 2025 09:17 EST

2025, JAMA Network Open (8)

Jiajun Luo, Liang Zheng, Zhihao Jin, Yuqing Yang, William I. Krakowka, Eric Hong, Melissa Lombard, Joseph D. Ayotte, Habibul Ahsan, Jayant M. Pinto, Briseis Aschebrook-Kilfoy

Importance  Lithium is a naturally occurring element in drinking water and is commonly used as a mood-stabilizing medication. Although clinical studies have reported associations between receiving lithium treatment and reduced cancer risk among patients with bipolar disorder, to our knowledge, the association between environmental lithium exposure and cancer risk has never been studied in the general population.

Objectives  To evaluate the association between exposure to lithium in drinking groundwater and cancer risk in the general population.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This cohort study included participants with electronic health record and residential address information but without cancer history at baseline from the All of Us Research Program between May 31, 2017, and June 30, 2022. Participants were followed up until February 15, 2023. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2023 through October 2024.

Exposure  Lithium concentration in groundwater, based on kriging interpolation of publicly available US Geological Survey data on lithium concentration for 4700 wells across the contiguous US between May 12, 1999, and November 6, 2018.

Main Outcome and Measures  The main outcome was cancer diagnosis or condition, obtained from electronic health records. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for risk of cancer overall and individual cancer types for increasing quintiles of the estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater, adjusting for socioeconomic, behavioral, and neighborhood-level variables. The analysis was further conducted in the western and eastern halves of the US and restricted to long-term residents living at their current address for at least 3 years.

Results  A total of 252 178 participants were included (median age, 52 years [IQR, 36-64 years]; 60.1% female). The median follow-up time was 3.6 years (IQR, 3.0-4.3 years), and 7573 incident cancer cases were identified. Higher estimated lithium exposure was consistently associated with reduced cancer risk. Compared with the first (lowest) quintile of lithium exposure, the HR for all cancers was 0.49 (95% CI, 0.31-0.78) for the fourth quintile and 0.29 (95% CI, 0.15-0.55) for the fifth quintile. These associations were found for all cancer types investigated in both females and males, among long-term residents, and in both western and eastern states. For example, for the fifth vs first quintile of lithium exposure for all cancers, the HR was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.07-0.42) in females and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.38) in males; for long-term residents, the HR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.15-0.66) in females and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.52) in males; and the HR was 0.01 (95% CI, 0.00-0.09) in western states and 0.34 (95% CI, 0.21-0.57) in eastern states.

Conclusions and Relevance  In this cohort study of 252 178 participants, estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater was associated with reduced cancer risk. Given the sparse evidence and unknown mechanisms of this association, follow-up investigation is warranted.

Released February 19, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, Nature

GlaMBIE Team, Michael Zemp, Livia Jakob, Inés Dussaillant, Samuel U. Nussbaumer, Noel Gourmelen, Sophie Dubber, A. Geruo, Sahra Abdullahi, Liss M. Andreassen, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Alejandro Blazquez, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Jason Box, Matthias H. Braun, Fanny Brun, Eric Cicero, William Colgan, Nicolas Eckert, D. Farinotti, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Alex Gardner, Christopher Harig, Javed Hassan, Romain Hugonnet, Matthias Huss, Tómas Jóhannesson, Chia-Chun Angela Liang, Chang-Qing Ke, Shfaqat Abbas, Owen King, Marin Kneib, Lukas Krieger, Fabien Maussion, Enrico Mattea, Robert McNabb, Brian Menounos, Evan Miles, Geir Moholdt, Johan Nilsson, F. Pálsson, Julia Pfeffer, Livia Piermattei, Stephen Plummer, Andreas Richter, Ingo Sasgen, Lilian Schuster, Thorsten Seehaus, Xiaoyi Shen, Christian Sommer, Tyler Sutterley, Désirée Treichler, Isabella Velicogna, Bert Wouters, Harry Zekollari, Whyjay Zheng

Glaciers are indicators of ongoing anthropogenic climate change¹. Their melting leads to increased local geohazards², and impacts marine³ and terrestrial^4,5 ecosystems, regional freshwater resources⁶, and both global water and energy cycles^7,8. Together with the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, glaciers are essential drivers of present^9,10 and future^11,12,13 sea-level rise. Previous assessments of global glacier mass changes have been hampered by spatial and temporal limitations and the heterogeneity of existing data series^14,15,16. Here we show in an intercomparison exercise that glaciers worldwide lost 273 ± 16 gigatonnes in mass annually from 2000 to 2023, with an increase of 36 ± 10% from the first (2000–2011) to the second (2012–2023) half of the period. Since 2000, glaciers have lost between 2% and 39% of their ice regionally and about 5% globally. Glacier mass loss is about 18% larger than the loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and more than twice that from the Antarctic Ice Sheet¹⁷. Our results arise from a scientific community effort to collect, homogenize, combine and analyse glacier mass changes from in situ and remote-sensing observations. Although our estimates are in agreement with findings from previous assessments^14,15,16 at a global scale, we found some large regional deviations owing to systematic differences among observation methods. Our results provide a refined baseline for better understanding observational differences and for calibrating model ensembles^12,16,18, which will help to narrow projection uncertainty for the twenty-first century^11,12,18.

Released February 19, 2025 08:37 EST

2025, Earthquake Spectra

Ryan A. Rasanen, Alex R.R. Grant, Andrew James Makdisi, Brett W. Maurer, Erin Wirth

Given the likelihood of future M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes, various estimates of the resulting, regional ground motions have been made, including a suite of 30 physics-based simulations that reflect key modeling uncertainties. However, because the last CSZ interface rupture occurred in 1700 CE, the shaking expected in such an event is especially uncertain, as are the impacts to the built and living environments. Like other coseismic impacts, soil liquefaction poses a significant threat and must be considered by any scenario study used to inform planning and response, or to focus mitigation resources. Liquefaction is also notable for its potential to “ground truth” ground-motion estimates, given that its presence or absence in the geologic record can provide constraint on the intensities of shaking in past events. It is thus an important phenomenon looking both forward and backward. Accordingly, using recent physics-based simulations, this study (1) predicts liquefaction in M9 CSZ ruptures at 400 locations in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia (BC) using an array of cone-penetration-test based models and (2) uses paleoliquefaction evidence at ten sites spanning from Southern Oregon to Vancouver, BC to constrain possible ground-motion intensities experienced in the 1700 CE earthquake. The forward predictions indicate that liquefaction in M9 events could be pervasive in the region and affect numerous population hubs, with the potential for damage across hundreds of square kilometers. The backward analyses suggest that 1700 CE ground-motion intensities may have been less than expected from M9 simulations in some northern portions of the CSZ (e.g. Seattle), given the paucity of 1700 CE liquefaction evidence in these areas. Ultimately, further discovery and analysis of CSZ paleoliquefaction, or lack thereof, will confirm or modify this possibility and the conclusions drawn herein.

Released February 19, 2025 08:19 EST

2025, mSystems

Brayan Vilanova-Cuevas, Christopher M. DeRito, Isabella T. Ritchie, Christina A. Kellogg, James S. Evans, Alizee Zimmermann, Stacey M. Williams, Marilyn E. Brandt, Moriah L.B. Sevier, Samuel Gittens Jr., Kayla A. Budd, Matthew Warham, William C. Sharp, Gabriel A. Delgado, Alwin Hylkema, Kimani A. Kitson-Walters, Jean-Pascal Quod, Mya Breitbart, Ian Hewson

Mass mortality of Diadematidae urchins, caused by the Diadema antillarum scuticociliatosis Philaster clade (DScPc), affected the Caribbean in spring 2022 and subsequently spread to the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and western Indian Ocean. A key question around Diadematidae scuticociliatosis (DSc), the disease caused by the scuticociliate, is whether the urchin microbiome varies between scuticociliatosis-affected and grossly normal urchins. Tissue samples from both grossly normal and abnormal Diadema antillarum were collected in the field during the initial assessment of the DSc causative agent and from an experimental challenge of DScPc culture on aquacultured D. antillarum. Specimens were analyzed using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Additional abnormal urchin samples were collected from the most recent outbreak site in the western Indian Ocean (Réunion Island). At reference (i.e., unaffected by DSc) sites, Kistimonas spp., Propionigenium spp., and Endozoicomonas spp. were highly represented in amplicon libraries. DSc-affected urchin amplicon libraries had lower taxonomic richness and a greater representation of taxa related to Fangia hongkongensis and Psychrobium spp. Amplicon libraries of urchins experimentally challenged with the DSc pathogen had some shifts in microbial composition, but F. hongkongensis was not a part of the core bacteria in DSc-challenged specimens. DSc-affected Echinothrix diadema from Réunion Island showed a similar high representation of F. hongkongensis as that seen on Caribbean D. antillarum. Our results suggest that DSc alters Diadematidae microbiomes and that F. hongkongensis may be a candidate bacterial biomarker for DSc in environmental samples. The mechanism driving microbiome variation in host–pathogen interactions remains to be explored.

Released February 18, 2025 11:50 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2024-3047

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Thomas M. Finn, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kira K. Timm

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 34.3 billion barrels of oil and 320 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Greater Caspian area.

Released February 17, 2025 15:20 EST

2025, Conservation Genetics

Dustin A. Wood, Bruce L. Christman, Randy D. Jennings, Jonathan P. Rose, Erika M. Nowak, Justin Schofer, A.G. Vandergast

Enhancing gene flow through translocations can be a useful tool in recovering small and isolated populations. However, it is not devoid of genetic risks, such as outbreeding depression in future generations, that can have negative consequences in terms of the establishment and mean fitness of the population. Studies that monitor the long-term effects of genetic rescue on populations in the wild are few, especially for snakes. We used long-term genetic monitoring and body condition indices to investigate the consequences of conservation translocation and genetic admixture in a Mogollon Narrow-headed Gartersnake (Thamnophis rufipunctatus) wild population. We compared genetic diversity and fitness metrics among the source and recipient populations to evaluate individual- and population-level fitness responses related to the conservation translocation. Our study found persistent captures with continued monitoring for over a decade post-release, and the recipient population showed lower inbreeding values and an increase in heterozygosity that was 19% higher than the two source populations. Snakes sampled in the recipient population had higher individual heterozygosity and body condition than those in the extant source and reference populations. Further, Bayesian regression models supported a significant positive relationship between heterozygosity and body condition after accounting for among-site differences, suggesting that efforts to increase heterozygosity can improve mean fitness in these populations. Our study highlights the potential benefits of conservation translocation from multiple source populations to restore the distribution and increase heterozygosity and population fitness of this threatened gartersnake. Alongside ecological restoration, translocation programs could be used to ensure both the persistence and resilience of populations throughout the species’ range.

Released February 17, 2025 08:29 EST

2025, Environmental Science & Technology

James Willacker, Collin A. Eagles-Smith, Austin K. Baldwin, Michael T. Tate, Brett A. Poulin, Jesse Naymik, David P. Krabbenhoft, Ralph Myers, James A. Chandler

Water column hypoxia is a key process influencing methylmercury (MeHg) production and availability in waterbodies worldwide. During seasonal destratification, large, short-lived pulses of aqueous MeHg may be released into the subsequently mixed water column, but little is known about the fate of these pulses, particularly whether there are concomitant increases in MeHg uptake into aquatic food webs. We examined the magnitude and timing of MeHg uptake across several trophic guilds relative to the reservoir stratification status using biweekly mercury data from water, zooplankton, and fish (Bluegill, Lepomis macrochirus and Smallmouth Bass, Micropterus dolomieu). Zooplankton MeHg concentrations increased by up to 250% during destratification, concurrent with increases in aqueous MeHg concentrations. Zooplankton and filter-passing MeHg concentrations were positively correlated when the reservoir was mixed (R² = 0.95) and destratifying (R² = 0.57) but not while the reservoir was stratified (R² = 0.21). Mercury concentrations in adult bluegill and juveniles of both fish species increased 20–70% following destratification, with responses lagging 4–8 weeks behind those in water and zooplankton MeHg. Mercury concentrations in piscivorous adult bass varied little over the course of the study. Our findings demonstrate the responsiveness of reservoir food webs to pulses in MeHg availability, suggesting that these pulses could play an important role in biotic MeHg exposure within and downstream of reservoirs.

Released February 15, 2025 10:31 EST

2025, Book chapter, Understanding past earthquakes

Susan E. Hough

Austin J. Elliott, Christoph Gruetzner, editor(s)

In this chapter I discuss the use of so-called macroseismic data, i.e., reports of damage and other effects of shaking on humans and the built environment, to improve the characterization of earthquakes and the ground motions they produce. Macroseismic data are critical not only to investigate earthquakes that occurred before the start of the instrumental era in seismology, but are also, by virtue of the spatially rich nature of the data, of tremendous potential importance to investigate early instrumental and even recent earthquakes. Fueled by both the advent of on-line systems that now produce unprecedented volumes of macroseismic intensity data and by recognition of the importance of understanding key historical earthquakes, there has been a growing appreciation for the value of macroseismic data. It is, however, critical to understand both the unique challenges and the unique opportunities associated with these data. I review the evolution of thought and practices regarding analysis of macroseismic data, and the use of such data to improve the characterization of historic and early instrumental earthquakes.

Released February 15, 2025 09:54 EST

2025, Book chapter, Understanding past earthquakes

Belle E. Philibosian

Austin J. Elliott, Christoph Gruetzner, editor(s)

Establishing the rupture extent and slip distribution of individual paleo-earthquakes is vital for assessing fault behavior including the persistence of rupture segmentation, recurrence patterns, and similarity of successive events, key issues in both fault mechanics and hazard assessment. Techniques with high temporal and geodetic precision as well as a wide distribution of study sites are necessary to investigate past earthquakes in such detail. Coral microatoll growth is one of the best types of geologic record for paleoseismology and paleogeodesy given these needs, as it provides long, continuous, widely distributed records of centimeter-scale vertical tectonic motion with potentially annual-level temporal precision. This chapter describes the process of interpreting microatoll growth records to obtain time series of relative sea level, tectonic vertical deformation fields, and finally slip and coupling parameters on an underlying fault interface.

Released February 15, 2025 09:33 EST

2025, Environmental Science & Technology

Sarah Balgooyen, Madelynn Scott, Brett R. Blackwell, Erin L. Pulster, Michael B. Mahon, Ryan F. Lepak, Will Backe

This study describes and validates a new method for extracting perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from whole-body fish tissue, demonstrates that freeze-dry preservation of tissue conserves bioaccumulative PFAS, and details a method demonstration on Lake Michigan fish. While fish filets are more commonly analyzed for their significance to human health, whole fish are useful to determine ecological impacts, but published methods such as EPA 1633 do not produce reliable results for this more challenging matrix. Here we show that lipid removal technology produces clean extracts without the need for solid-phase extraction or evaporative concentration, which often lead to loss of some PFAS. This method achieves an accuracy of 96 ± 9% for the detection of 45 PFAS while also offering benefits of a simple procedure, reduced processing time, and decreased waste generation compared to multistep cleanup and concentration methods. A test of freeze-drying demonstrated that compounds detected in Great Lakes fish were retained, but volatile compounds including sulfonamide precursors and ethanols were lost. To demonstrate field performance, the entire method was applied to whole-fish composites from Lake Michigan. Results from these samples reveal that the PFAS concentration was driven by collection location, while the distribution of PFAS was dictated by fish species.

Released February 15, 2025 08:40 EST

2025, Quaternary Science Reviews (350)

Andrew Johnson, Bernd Schone, Sierra V. Petersen, Niels de Winter, Harry J. Dowsett, Jean-Francois Cudennec, Elizabeth Harper, Ian Winkelstern

Study of the accretionary biomineralised hardparts of organisms (sclerochronology) can make a useful contribution to palaeoclimatology. Ontogenetic sequences of isotopic data (δ¹⁸O and Δ₄₇ values) from the shells of marine molluscs are a source of information on seasonal sea-surface temperatures that can be used for detailed and rigorous evaluation of the outputs of numerical climate models. In situations where there is significant seasonality, and where shell preservation is adequate, accurate information about winter and summer surface temperature can be obtained from shallow-water benthic forms (bivalves and gastropods), in particular the early ontogeny of fast-growing species. Accurate information about winter surface temperature can also be obtained from individuals that lived at mid-shelf depths (20–40 m), but summer seafloor values from these need upward adjustment to derive a plausible surface temperature if thermal stratification of the water column occurs in this season. Ontogenetic δ¹⁸O profiles from planktonic pteropod gastropods are a potential source of insight into seasonal surface temperatures in the ocean basins; these organisms merit investigation for provision of information to complement shelf data.

Temperature profiles constructed from shell δ¹⁸O require an estimate of the δ¹⁸O value of ambient seawater, which can be derived by back-calculation from the Δ₄₇-temperature supplied by the same shell material. Alternatively, through appropriate sampling and data processing, seasonal temperatures can be obtained directly from Δ₄₇ profiles. Climate parameters are defined in terms of the mean state over a period of 30 consecutive years, a statistic (e.g., for seasonal temperatures) which can be derived from the long isotopic temperature records obtainable from bivalve species that live for many tens or hundreds of years. Efforts should be made to acquire such records, especially averaged data from crossdated shells, to specify climate parameters for precise times in the past. Information for precise times would be of particular value for icehouse intervals like the late Cenozoic, characterised by high frequency (high amplitude) climate fluctuation. Short records from non-crossdated shells can nevertheless provide useful insights into climate, particularly if a large dataset is obtained, supplying a reliable picture of the mean state and range of variation in climate parameters over the interval represented by the shells.

Released February 14, 2025 16:25 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5112

Richard N. Slattery, Namjeong Choi, Allan K. Clark

The U.S. Geological Survey—in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System and the Edwards Aquifer Authority—used data collected during four different periods (March 1955–August 1964, October 1995–September 1996, March 2001–June 2002, and March 2017–October 2022) as part of a new study to refine previously derived relations between the altitude of the water surface of Medina Lake and recharge to the Edwards aquifer and the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer in the form of seepage losses from Medina Lake and the immediately downstream Diversion Lake. Any seepage losses that occur within the conservation pools of Medina and Diversion Lakes infiltrate the Edwards aquifer and the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer as recharge. To quantify recharge to the Edwards aquifer and the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer from Medina and Diversion Lakes, daily water budgets were used to calculate monthly and annual recharge (method 1). A new statistical analysis culminated in a new log-log weighted least-squares (WLS) regression equation that relates recharge from Medina and Diversion Lakes to the Medina Lake stage. Recharge estimates obtained by using the new log-log WLS regression equation (method 2), as well as the recharge estimated by using a method published in 1978 (referred to as the “Puente method”) (method 3), were compared with the calculated recharge during March 2017–September 2022. During March 2017–September 2022, the WLS estimated recharge was 224,310 acre-feet, 0.5 percent less than the calculated recharge of 225,400 acre-feet. The Puente method estimated recharge was 342,080 acre-feet, about 52 percent more than the calculated recharge. The analysis of the three methods indicates that WLS estimated recharge provides a more accurate accounting of actual recharge to the Edwards aquifer and the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer compared to the Puente method.

Released February 14, 2025 14:41 EST

2025, Check List: The Journal of Biodiversity Data (21) 198-215

Auxenia G. Privett-Mendoza, Stella Oganesyan, Robert N. Fisher, Cynthia Joan Hitchcock, Denise Clark, Amanda J. Zellmer

Urban expansion is a prominent threat to biodiversity, particularly for terrestrial mammals, which are significantly impacted by disruptions in habitat connectivity and loss. It can also lead to increased human‑wildlife conflicts that contribute to species decline. Urban public works projects, such as flood control areas, may coincidentally preserve significant habitat, but their potential for conservation remains understudied. Hansen Dam, located in the city of Los Angeles, California, USA, is one of these flood control areas, hosting some of the last remaining riparian habitat in the greater Los Angeles area. We deployed motion‑triggered camera traps at 36 stratified random locations and completed small mammal trapping at 20 sites at Hansen Dam. We detected a total of 15 species, not including domesticated animals, but there is potential that additional species inhabit the area. All species detected were common and expected but demonstrate that the Hansen Dam flood control basin has a terrestrial mammal community similar to that reported for other urban habitats. These results suggest incidental habitat conservation could play a significant role in future conservation planning efforts.

Released February 14, 2025 10:20 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Map 3533

Mark W. Carter, David B. Spears, Virginia M. Latane, E. Allen Crider, Benjamin R. Weinmann, Holly Mangum, Ryan J. McAleer, J. Wright Horton, Jr., Anjana K. Shah, Sean P. Regan

The Buckner 7.5-minute quadrangle straddles three terrane boundaries in the Piedmont Physiographic Province in central Virginia: the Chopawamsic terrane, the Elk Hill Complex, and the Goochland terrane. In much of the map area, the Elk Hill Complex separates the Chopawamsic and Goochland terranes. Rocks of the Chopawamsic terrane include Ordovician metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation, Ordovician to Silurian granodiorite sheet intrusions, and Paleozoic mafic intrusions. Silurian to Devonian rocks of the Quantico Formation, mostly garnet-mica schist, crop out in the northwesternmost part of the map area, and are in unconformable contact with rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation on the southeastern limb of the Quantico synclinorium. The main map unit in the Elk Hill Complex is Neoproterozoic mica gneiss, which is in pre-metamorphic fault contact with rocks of the Chopawamsic Formation to the west. The main map unit of the Goochland terrane is the Maidens Gneiss. Except for Jurassic diabase dikes, all rocks on the Buckner 7.5-minute quadrangle were metamorphosed to amphibolite facies during the Alleghanian orogeny and preserve multiple compositional and phyllosilicate penetrative foliations. Evidence of amphibolite-facies metamorphism during the Taconic orogeny is preserved in rocks of the Elk Hill Complex. The entire width of the Maidens Gneiss on the Buckner 7.5-minute quadrangle is within the Spotsylvania high-strain zone and amphibolite-facies mylonitic textures are pervasive. Quartz veins and Jurassic diabase dikes crosscut all older rocks of the quadrangle.

Multiple levels of terrace deposits are present along and near the major streams of the quadrangle. The lower terrace deposits are likely remnants of former positions of the Little River on the landscape, whereas higher deposits may be remnants of former deposits of the Atlantic Coastal Plain that covered this portion of the Piedmont Province. A linear cluster of aftershocks from the magnitude 5.8 earthquake that occurred near Mineral, Virginia, in 2011 defines the Fredericks Hall fault, which is at depth on the Buckner quadrangle. Most of the aftershocks occurred in the core of the Elk Creek antiform and have no relation to faults mapped at the surface. Several abandoned crushed stone and building stone quarries, as well as a mica prospect, exist in the quadrangle.

Released February 14, 2025 09:41 EST

2025, Environmental Pollution (369)

Margaret J. Eggers, W. Adam Sigler, Nicklas Kiekover, Paul M. Bradley, Kelly Smalling, Albert E. Parker, Robert K.D. Peterson, John LaFave

Across the United States, rural residents rely on unregulated and generally unmonitored private wells for drinking water, which may pose serious health risks due to unrecognized contaminants. We assessed the nature, degree, and spatial distribution of cumulative health risks from inorganic contaminants in groundwater. Our analysis included nearly 84,000 data points from 6500+ wells, across 51 of Montana's 98 watersheds, using a public groundwater database. We compared a drinking water screening level cumulative risk assessment (CRA) for inorganics based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective health thresholds (Maximum Contaminant Level Goals, Health Advisories [MCLG-HAs]) to a CRA based on EPA public supply enforceable Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs). Based on median concentrations of 19 inorganics (antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, boron, cadmium, chromium, copper, fluoride, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, nitrate, lead, selenium, strontium, thallium, uranium, zinc), 75% of watersheds had MCLG-HA-based cumulative risk values > 1.0; arsenic and uranium contributed the most risk, followed by strontium, fluoride, manganese and boron. Hence, this screening level (Tier I) CRA indicated widespread potential for unrecognized human health risk to private well users from inorganic contaminants considering both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. Sensitivity analysis showed that benchmarks applied (MCLG-HAs versus MCLs) exerted the largest control on results. Our findings identify priority regions for Tier 2 risk assessments to elucidate local sources and distributions of geogenic versus anthropomorphic contaminants. Our study is the first statewide assessment of cumulative health risk from groundwater that we are aware of, and results support increased statewide drinking water education and testing to reduce human health risks from contaminated private well water.

Released February 14, 2025 08:47 EST

2025, The Seismic Record (5) 83-96

Clara Yoon, Robert Skoumal, Andrew J. Michael, Arthur D. Jolly, Andria P. Ellis, Drew T. Downs, Peter Dotray, Natalia I. Deligne, Jefferson Chang, Ninfa Lucia Bennington, Aaron Wech, Matthew M. Haney, Alicia J. Hotovec-Ellis, Elinor Lutu-McMoore, Marcus Langkilde

From July to October 2022, a non-eruptive volcanic earthquake swarm occurred within ~15 km of Taʻū Island, located in eastern American Samoa. Felt reports from local residents were the only available information about the swarm when it started, as American Samoa lacked a seismic monitoring network. We developed a consistent single-station catalog for the entire swarm, using seismic data from the nearest station IU.AFI, ~250 km away. We applied the EQTransformer deep-learning model (Mousavi et al., 2020), automatically picking Pn and Sn arrivals on IU.AFI continuous data. We retained only events with Sn-Pn times of 22.5–25 seconds, consistent with the expected locations based on felt reports, then detected smaller swarm events with subsequent template-matching. This single-station catalog characterized the swarm’s onset and escalation to peak activity before a multi-agency field response team installed a local seismic network in mid-August 2022. This permanent seismic network captured the swarm’s decline. EQTransformer identified short S-P times on the first two locally deployed seismometers, both Raspberry Shake sensors, to constrain the swarm’s distance from Taʻū Island. Modern seismological processing methods, combined with basic observations such as felt reports, can quickly contribute useful information during an earthquake response in a poorly monitored region.

Released February 13, 2025 14:55 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5127

Michael C. Gratzer, John E. Solder, Katherine J. Knierim, James A. Kingsbury, Andrew M. O'Reilly, Gregg R. Davidson

This study characterized groundwater age across the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA). Groundwater samples from 69 MRVA wells and 19 wells in Tertiary units of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system (MEAS) were analyzed for sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), tritium (³H), helium (He), and (or) carbon-14 of dissolved inorganic carbon (¹⁴C). The age distributions of 89 samples were estimated by fitting lumped parameter models to processed tracer concentrations with the U.S. Geological Survey software TracerLPM. Mean ages of MRVA groundwater samples ranged from 12 to 22,000 years, with a median of 140 years. Mean ages of MEAS groundwater samples ranged from 230 to 52,000 or more years, with a median of 13,500 years. The spatial distribution of MRVA groundwater ages was found to be influenced by depth, inflow of groundwater from deeper units, and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. In parts of the MRVA, the spatial distribution of MRVA groundwater ages was found to be influenced by annual recharge and (or) annual groundwater pumpage.

Released February 13, 2025 09:20 EST

2025, Metabarcoding and Metagenomics (9)

Susanna Theroux, Adam Sepulveda, Cathryn L. Abbott, Zachary Gold, Alison W. Watts, Margaret Hunter, Katy E. Klymus, Shana L. Hirsch, Joseph M. Craine, Devin Nicole Jones, Rachel J. Brown, Joshua A. Steele, Miwa Takahashi, Rachel T. Noble, John A. Darling

The rapid advancement of environmental DNA (eDNA) science in the past two decades has inspired a concomitant growth in the development of eDNA sampling and analytical methods. However, these methods are often developed by individual laboratories or institutions, which can isolate protocols within programmes, agencies or regions and prevent the beneficial exchange of data and ideas. Recent efforts to advance national and international coordination have resulted in a groundswell of standardisation efforts, but there is still considerable confusion around the role of formal standards for regulatory or research applications. With this commentary, we hope to provide clarity on the terminology used in standardisation discussions, including the differences between formal standards and best practice guidelines. Additionally, we discuss how eDNA method choice may be informed by environmental management scenarios and review examples of formal eDNA method standards being used to inform management action. The eDNA community now has an opportunity to develop a roadmap for method development to help close standardisation gaps, advance eDNA method adoption and accelerate our ability to monitor biological life at the scales our current environmental challenges demand.

Released February 13, 2025 06:25 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5001

Laurie S. Balistrieri

Relative sensitivities and responses of juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus), Hyalella azteca, two families of mayfly (Ephemerellidae, Heptageniidae), one family of caddisfly (Brachycentridae), and a natural community of benthic macroinvertebrates (BMI) to multiple metals are predicted using previously collected laboratory and field samples and a metal mixture model. Biological responses in single metal exposures are used to parameterize toxicity functions, which include accumulations of hydrogen and selected metals on biological receptors, intrinsic potencies of hydrogen and metals, sensitivities of organisms, and times of exposure. The model then is used to predict responses in multiple metal laboratory exposures and field-collected porewater. The following sensitivity sequence in porewater was determined based on endpoints of survival or total abundance: juvenile white sturgeon greater than (>) Ephemerellidae family > Hyalella azteca > Heptageniidae family about equal to (~) benthic macroinvertebrate community > Brachycentridae family. The fraction of porewater samples that are predicted to have adverse impacts on benthic biota (20-percent or greater negative response) depends on organism sensitivities and metal toxicities, and ranges from 44 to 48 percent for juvenile white sturgeon, 23 to 26 percent for the Ephemerellidae family, 16 to 22 percent for Hyalella azteca, 5 to 8 percent for the Heptageniidae family and BMI community, and 0 percent for the caddisfly family. The most toxic porewater in the upper Columbia River Basin (UCR) is at the backwater bar site at Deadmans Eddy and China Bend. The model also indicates that the element responsible for the most toxic conditions in UCR porewater is copper for all organisms, except Hyalella azteca and the metal-insensitive Brachycentridae family. Copper and lead result in the most toxic conditions for Hyalella azteca. This approach and results can aid in assessing metal toxicity and its potential risk to aquatic biota in ecosystems impacted by historical mining activities.

Released February 12, 2025 16:25 EST

2025, General Information Product 248

Leah Colasuonno, Rebecca D. Uribe, Janice Gordon, Jeff T. Falgout

Advanced Research Computing provides access to high-performance computing (HPC) resources as well as training and consultation for effective use of these powerful systems. This product outlines current HPC machines, capabilities, classes, and enabled science.

Released February 12, 2025 13:54 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2024-3055

Kimberly R. Beisner, Benjamin J. Siebers, Fred D. Tillman, Katherine Walton-Day

Introduction

In the arid Grand Canyon region, water resources are limited to primarily the Colorado River and associated tributaries and to groundwater in the form of seeps and springs. Groundwater resources in the region supply water for human use and support diverse and rich ecosystems in the locations immediately surrounding the seeps and springs. Throughout the region, uranium resources occur and may interact with water resources in both mined and unmined uranium deposits. There is a need to better understand groundwater in the region and the effects from uranium mining in order to better manage the limited water resources in the area. This Fact Sheet summarizes results from U.S. Geological Survey studies that were conducted on this topic from 2012 to 2023.

Released February 12, 2025 11:55 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2024-3048

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kira K. Timm

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 3.3 billion barrels of oil and 80.3 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Zagros Fold Belt of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.

Released February 12, 2025 10:59 EST

2025, JGR Solid Earth (130)

Asif Ashraf, Emilie Hooft, Douglas Toomey, Anne Trehu, Sarah Nolan, Erin Wirth, Kevin M. Ward

This study addresses a significant gap in understanding the features of the south-central Cascadia subduction zone, a region characterized by complex geologic, tectonic, and seismic transitions both offshore and onshore. Unlike other segments along this margin, this area lacks a 3-D velocity model to delineate its structural and geological features on a fine scale. To address this void, we developed a high-resolution 3-D P-wave velocity model using active source seismic data from ship-borne seismic shots recorded on temporary and permanent onshore seismic stations and ocean-bottom seismometers. Our model shows velocity variations across the region with distinct velocity-depth profiles for the Siletz, Franciscan, and Klamath terranes in the overlying plate. We identified seaward dipping high-velocity static backstops associated with the Siletz and Klamath terranes, situated near the shoreline and further inland, respectively. Regions of reduced crustal velocity are associated with crustal faults. Moreover, there is significant along-strike depth variation in the subducting slab, which is about 4 km deeper near the thick, dense Siletz terrane and becomes shallower near the predominantly less-dense Franciscan terrane. This highlights a sudden tectonic and geologic transition at the southern boundary of the Siletz terrane. Our velocity model also indicates slightly increased hydration, though still minimal, in both the oceanic crust and the upper mantle of the subducting plate compared to other parts of the margin.

Released February 12, 2025 09:51 EST

2025, Geology

Bruna da Silva Ricardo, Martin Oeser, Kendra J. Lynn, Neil Bennett, Xu Chu, Grace Henderson, Y. Liu, Stephan Weyer, Corliss Kin I Sio

Melt inclusions are used to study the origin and evolution of magmas. The extent to which they represent equilibrium melt compositions, however, critically hinges on the ratio of crystal growth rate to diffusion rate in melts. If the rate of crystal growth is limited by the supply of nutrients and the dissipation of unwanted components, the trapped melt will be depleted in compatible elements and enriched in incompatible elements. Despite widespread recognition of the potential for melt inclusions to trap disequilibrium compositions, their identification remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate how stable isotopes provide a solution to this problem. Melt inclusions in basaltic tephra from Kīlauea volcano, Hawai‘i, display Mg isotope fractionation up to 0.49‰ (²⁶Mg/²⁴Mg) relative to bulk rock. These observations indicate that kinetic processes, such as chemical diffusion, are at play, as equilibrium mineral-melt isotope fractionation at high temperatures is an order of magnitude smaller. We propose that the heavy Mg isotopic compositions of the melt inclusions were generated by the faster diffusion and thus preferential incorporation of ²⁴Mg by the growing olivine, leaving the slower diffusant (²⁶Mg) behind. The incompatible elements (e.g., Ca, Ti, and K) are predicted to display similarly large fractionations when boundary layer effects are significant. These findings show that stable isotopes can be a useful tool in identifying disequilibrium compositions in melt inclusions.

Released February 12, 2025 09:51 EST

2025, Newsletter

Antonio Celis-Murillo

Note to All Banders was a special extra communication with more urgent information relevant to banders. This Note to All Banders was sent to U.S. bird banders on February 12, 2025. This note includes a review of the 2024 successes at the Bird Banding Laboratory. Throughout 2024, the BBL increased communication, engagement, and collaboration, within the Eastern Ecological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, and with organization partners and local communities. This Note to Banders highlights these efforts in more detail. 

Released February 12, 2025 09:27 EST

2025, Proceedings of the Royal Society, B (292)

Dylan Gerald-Everett Gomes

As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, humans face new challenges to long-term survival. Humans will likely be battling these problems long after 2100, when many climate projections currently end. A more forward-thinking view on our science and its direction may help better prepare for the future of our species. Researchers may consider datasets the basic units of knowledge, whose preservation is arguably more important than the articles that are written about them. Storing data and code in long-term repositories offers insurance against our uncertain future. To ensure open data are useful, data must be FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) and be complete with all appropriate metadata. By embracing open science practices, contemporary scientists give the future of humanity the information to make better decisions, save time and other valuable resources, and increase global equity as access to information is made free. This, in turn, will enable and inspire a diversity of solutions, to the benefit of many. Imagine the collective science conducted, the models built, and the questions answered if all of the data researchers have collectively gathered were organized and immediately accessible and usable by everyone. Investing in open science today may ensure a brighter future for unborn generations.

Released February 12, 2025 07:53 EST

2025, Chemical Geology

Hope Lee Ianiri, Pamela L. Campbell‐Swarzenski, Amy Gartman, Nancy G. Prouty

Sediments in critical marine mineral environments are of wide importance due to their preservation of both marine minerals and organic carbon (OC) stocks. However, OC storage and cycling is often overlooked in mineral system studies. This work characterizes sedimentary OC within the Escanaba Trough, a hydrothermal sulfide system off the coast of northern California. By utilizing ROV-based push coring, we collected sediments near and far from high temperature, low temperature, and inactive vents. We applied a multipronged organic geochemical approach, measuring bulk sediment, OC fractions of varying labilities, and biomarkers to tease apart the storage, source, and cycling of OC within this complex system. In contrast to past work indicating a primarily terrestrial source to deeper, Pleistocene sediments, our results suggest a primarily marine source in surface sediments at least 50 m away from active venting. Near active venting, we see evidence of locally produced chemosynthetic OC in addition to the background marine source. This chemosynthetic OC appears to be rapidly remineralized and supports more complex deep-sea food webs compared to hemipelagic sites. Still, the greatest contribution of labile OC was observed at inactive vent sites, which we suggest is due to hydrothermal fluid alteration of more labile OC at actively venting sites. Depending on fluid temperature, hydrothermally altered OC is either preserved in the sediments as petroleum or migrated with fluid flow. Considering inactive sites are those most likely to be targeted by potential mining, we suggest additional studies could verify if these results apply at other sedimented seafloor massive sulfide systems.

Released February 12, 2025 07:41 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Stuart J. Robbins, Michelle R. Kirchoff, Lillian R. Ostrach

Impact crater population detection and measurement is critical to understanding solar system bodies and dynamics. However, the ability to detect all possible craters under different lighting and camera geometries has not been systematically studied except in a few limited cases. This work presents the first systematic study examining crater detection based on resolution, incidence angle, emission angle, and phase angle, by three independent researchers to also test reliability of our conclusions. We found the best incidence angles for crater detection to be ∼74°–82°. We found little dependence on emission angle with geometries as high as ∼60°, while phase angles ∼20°–75° produce reliable crater populations. Resolution requires at least 6 pixels, and it is likely researcher-, geometry-, and terrain-specific. This work reveals potential biases in crater analysts' work and can be used for missions planning encounters so they can achieve the best, most reliable recovery of crater populations.

Released February 11, 2025 09:28 EST

2025, Water (17)

E. Randall Bayless, Shawn Naylor, David C. Lampe, Amy A Story, Caleb Colyer Artz

Rain gardens installed as green infrastructure to divert storm runoff from entering combined sewers also collect dissolved constituents and particulates. An urban rain garden in northwestern Indiana, USA, was continuously monitored from November 2019 to May 2021 to evaluate the fate of dissolved constituents entering the rain garden in runoff. Physical and chemical properties of soils in the rain garden were also monitored, along with underlying groundwater. Linear regression models relating specific conductance to chloride concentration indicated that the 0.0371-ha (3998 square feet) rain garden collected approximately 1490 kg (3285 pounds) of road salt from the surrounding 0.2228 ha (24,500 square feet) of impervious surfaces. Soils and groundwater were seasonally affected by road salt application but carryover from year to year was not indicated. Rain garden soil permeability (5.20 × 10⁻⁵ to 9.72 × 10⁻⁵ m/s) remained unchanged during the study period and soil organic carbon generally increased under native vegetation. The results suggest that a rain garden built on sandy soil can divert substantial quantities of runoff and dissolved constituents from combined sewers; however, chloride is transported to sub-infrastructure groundwater that eventually discharges to adjacent waterways with concentrations lower than those observed in runoff.

Released February 10, 2025 10:24 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1002

Megan M. Ring, Rose J. Swift, Michael J. Anteau, Lawrence D. Igl, Mark E. Seamans, Scott G. Somershoe, Jay A. VonBank, John M. Yeiser, Garrett J. MacDonald

Like numerous other North American grassland bird species, Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspur) has experienced severe population declines in the last 50 years. Little is known about population-limiting factors, and knowledge gaps limit conservation efforts on the species; however, before research studies aimed at improving conservation and management actions can be developed, other research must resolve notable knowledge gaps that exist in field techniques for efficient and effective large-scale demographic studies. We examined several techniques for the capture, marking (metal, color bands, and transmitters), and reencountering (resights and telemetry) of thick-billed longspurs in croplands and prairies in Valley County, Montana, during the 2022 and 2023 breeding seasons. Our goal was to evaluate the feasibility of obtaining within- and between-season resights of individual thick-billed longspurs using optical equipment and cameras, transmitter receivers, and the Motus automatic receiving station network. This report includes observations and insights that may aid researchers embarking on future demographic studies of thick-billed longspurs, as well as other grassland birds that provide similar research challenges.

Released February 10, 2025 09:18 EST

2025, PLoS ONE (20)

Melia Gail Nafus, Emma B. Hanslowe, Scott Michael Goetz

A critical component of monitoring wildlife populations is understanding changes in population size or abundance. However, for most populations a complete census is not possible; thus, trends or abundance need to be estimated through alternative means, such as indexes. An important aspect of using indexes, such as capture per unit effort (CPUE), is validating them as accurate or precise predictors of population trends or abundance. We completed such analyses using data collected from visual surveys and trapping for brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) within a 5-ha enclosure that was undergoing a continuous population decline. During a ~ 6-year period, we censused and marked the snake population to fully enumerated the population, with new individuals resulting from births and removals resulting only from mortality (natural or experimental). From trapping and visual surveys, we were also able to calculate CPUE as a function of trap nights or km surveyed and used regressions to forecast snake density (snakes/km) in the enclosure from CPUE. We also rarefied the true dataset to measure whether reductions in sampling intensity, either temporally or spatially, affected the accuracy or precision in predicting snake density from CPUE. We found that trap CPUE demonstrated no statistical relationship to density based on our study methods. CPUE during visual surveys did predict actual density, with sufficient spatial and temporal sampling intensity. CPUE from visual surveys was relatively robust against reductions in temporal sampling when spatial intensity remained high. However, reductions in the spatial area covered to less than 50% of the enclosure rapidly reduced the accuracy and precision in using CPUE to forecast density. Our results indicate that visual surveys are a relatively accurate measure of true density for brown treesnakes, given sufficient spatial sampling effort. The spatial area of coverage required for CPUE to accurately predict changes in abundance was, however, intense with > 50% of the spatial area required to be sampled on a given sampling night. Our results indicate that CPUE is only reliable as an index of abundance or population trends for cryptic snakes, if sampling effort covers most of the landscape over which populations are being estimated.

Released February 10, 2025 09:01 EST

2025, Nature Communications (16)

Sean Parks, Chris Guiterman, Ellis Margolis, Maggie Lonergan, Ellen Whitman, John T. Abatzoglou, Donald A. Falk, James B. Johnston , Lori D. Daniels, Charles W. Lafon, Rachel A. Loehman, Kurt F. Kipfmueller, Cameron E. Naficy, Marc-Andre Parisien, Jeanne Portier, Michael C. Stambaugh, A. Park Williams, Andreas Paul Wion, Larissa Yocom

Rapid increases in wildfire area burned across North American forests pose novel challenges for managers and society. Increasing area burned raises questions about whether, and to what degree, contemporary fire regimes (1984–2022) are still departed from historical fire regimes (pre-1880). We use the North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), a multi-century record comprising >1800 fire-scar sites spanning diverse forest types, and contemporary fire perimeters to ask whether there is a contemporary fire surplus or fire deficit, and whether recent fire years are unprecedented relative to historical fire regimes. Our results indicate, despite increasing area burned in recent decades, that a widespread fire deficit persists across a range of forest types and recent years with exceptionally high area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. For example, ‘record’ contemporary fire years such as 2020 burned 6% of NAFSN sites—the historical average—well below the historical maximum of 29% sites that burned in 1748. Although contemporary fire extent is not unprecedented across many North American forests, there is abundant evidence that unprecedented contemporary fire severity is driving forest loss in many ecosystems and adversely impacting human lives, infrastructure, and water supplies.

Released February 10, 2025 08:29 EST

2025, The Seismic Record (5) 73-82

Joanna Holmgren, J. Ole Kaven, Volker Oye

Pausing injection and production can lead to induced seismicity in a variety of settings, with some of the largest events occurring during these so-called shut-ins. In geothermal fields, shut-ins are periodically conducted for maintenance on wells and surface infrastructure, thereby offering recurring means of estimating stress changes in the subsurface that lead to increased seismicity rates. Here, we examine daily production and microseismicity data from the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) in California between 1996 and 2010 to investigate the repetitive trends of operational shut-in microseismicity. Using 24 local seismic stations, we first analyze spatial and temporal trends of over 60,000 earthquakes with magnitudes between -0.4 to 3.8. We find that the northern region exhibits no significant seismicity changes during shut-ins, whereas the rest of the field experiences induced seismicity during almost every shut-in with an increasing intensity towards the southern and eastern portions of the field, highlighting local differences in stress within the CGF. Additionally, we cluster the seismicity using waveform cross-correlation, revealing several earthquake clusters primarily occurring during shut-in periods. These observations suggest that certain fracture and fault sections respond quicker to changes in pore pressure and poroelastic stresses within the geothermal system, possibly highlighting main fluid pathways.

Released February 10, 2025 08:13 EST

2025, PLoS (20)

Marcy C. Delos, Ciara G. Johnson, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Janet Alice Cushing

Climate change is a pervasive hazard that impacts the supply and demand of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) that maintain human well-being. A recent review found that the impacts of climate change on EGS are sometimes mixed, posing challenges for managers who need to adapt to these changes. We expand on earlier work by exploring drivers of varying responses of EGS to climate within studies. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers directly assessing climate change impacts on the supply, demand, or monetary value of ‘provisioning EGS’, ‘regulating EGS’, or ‘cultural EGS’. Ultimately, 44 papers published from December 2014 to March 2018 were analyzed. Nearly 66% of EGS were assessed for higher-income countries despite how lower-income countries disproportionately face negative climate impacts. Around 59% of observations or projections were mixed responses of EGS to climate change. Differences in climate impacts to EGS across space or climate scenarios were the most common causes of mixed responses, followed by mixed responses across time periods assessed. Disaggregating findings by drivers is valuable because mixed responses were often due to multiple drivers of variation. Carefully considering the decision context and desired outcome of a study will help select appropriate methodology to detect EGS variation. Although studies have often assessed relevant drivers of variation, assessing interactions of other sources of uncertainty and both climate and non-climate drivers may support more effective management decisions that holistically account for different values in the face of uncertainty.

Released February 08, 2025 08:43 EST

2025, Landscape Ecology (40)

Miguel L. Villarreal, Tara B.B. Bishop, Temuulen Ts. Sankey, William K. Smith, Matthew Alexander Burgess, Trevor Caughlin, Jeffrey K. Gillan, Caroline Havrilla, Tao Huang, Raymond Lebeau, Cindy L. Norton, Joel B. Sankey, Victoria Mary Scholl, Joshua W. Von Nonn, Erika Yao

Context

Unoccupied aerial systems/vehicles (UAS/UAV, a.k.a. drones) have become an increasingly popular tool for ecological research. But much of the recent research is concerned with developing mapping and detection approaches, with few studies attempting to link UAS data to ecosystem processes and function. Landscape ecologists have long used high resolution imagery and spatial analyses to address ecological questions and are therefore uniquely positioned to advance UAS research for ecological applications.

Objectives

The review objectives are to: (1) provide background on how UAS are used in landscape ecological studies, (2) identify major advancements and research gaps, and (3) discuss ways to better facilitate the use of UAS in landscape ecology research.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review based on PRISMA guidelines using key search terms that are unique to landscape ecology research. We reviewed only papers that applied UAS data to investigate questions about ecological patterns, processes, or function.

Results

We summarize metadata from 161 papers that fit our review criteria. We highlight and discuss major research themes and applications, sensors and data collection techniques, image processing, feature extraction and spatial analysis, image fusion and satellite scaling, and open data and software.

Conclusion

We observed a diversity of UAS methods, applications, and creative spatial modeling and analysis approaches. Key aspects of UAS research in landscape ecology include modeling wildlife micro-habitats, scaling of ecosystem functions, landscape and geomorphic change detection, integrating UAS with historical aerial and satellite imagery, and novel applications of spatial statistics.

Released February 07, 2025 08:21 EST

2025, Biological Conservation (302)

Ron Efrat, Yael Lehnardt, Daniel Berkowic, Yossi Leshem, Roi Dor, Alexander E. Bragin, Evgeny Bragin, Todd E. Katzner, Nir Sapir

Effective conservation of migratory birds requires gathering of information about their population trends, often acquired using migratory bird counts. These schemes ideally operate at migratory bottlenecks, through which a significant portion of the counted migratory populations is funneled. Yet it is rare to validate the conservation value of the data from these counts. Here we perform this validation using GPS tracking data collected from two migratory species during their movement over two count schemes: the globally endangered steppe eagle counted in Eilat, Israel, and the black kite, counted in Batumi, Georgia. We use tracking data to answer two questions: which populations are counted and what affects the probability that a given individual will be counted. Our results illustrate variability in the effectiveness of these two migratory bird counting schemes. Considering the goal of estimating population trends, we show that Eilat does not represent a good location for understanding population trends of steppe eagles, while Batumi appears to provide better information on demographic trends of black kites. We further present differences in annual and individual variability, evidence regarding the breeding area origins of the counted populations and effects of environmental factors on the raptors' routes and, consequently, on the probabilities of being counted. Beyond the direct implications of our results, this study provides an example of using telemetry data to parameterize inference from bird counts. Further coupling of migratory bird count data and GPS data can improve our understanding of migration ecology and the conservation of migratory species.

Released February 06, 2025 14:00 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5111

Matthew Kauffman, Blake Lowrey, Jennifer L. McKee, Travis Allen, Chloe Beaupre, Jeffrey L. Beck, Scott Bergen, Justin Binfet, Shelly Blair, James W. Cain III, Peyton Carl, Todd Cornish, Michelle Cowardin, Rachel Curtis, Melia DeVivo, Jennifer Diamond, Katie M. Dugger, Orrin Duvuvuei, C.J. Ellingwood, Darby Finely, Jessica Fort, Eric Freeman, Ian Freeman, Jeff Gagnon, Emily Gelzer, Jacob Gray, Evan Greenspan, Curtis Hendricks, Valerie Hinojoza-Rood, Matthew Jeffress, Carolyn A. Kyle, Zach Lockyer, Cody McKee, Jerod A. Merkle, Jerrod Merrell, Matthew A. Mumma, Jake Powell, Craig Reddell, Adele K. Reinking, Robert Ritson, Sierra Robatcek, Benjamin S. Robb, Brianna M. Russo, Hall Sawyer, Cody Schroeder, Elissa Slezak, Scott Sprague, Erik Steiner, Alethea Steingisser, Thomas Stephenson, Nicole Tatman, Kaitlyn L. Taylor, Don Whittaker, Travis Zaffarano

Many ungulates migrate between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. In 2018, the U.S. Department of the Interior established Secretarial Order 3362, which provided Federal support to expand existing research efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations by enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western United States. In response to the order, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created the Corridor Mapping Team, which is a collaboration among 11 State agencies, regional and Federal partners, and an expanding number of Tribal wildlife agencies. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States and publishes them in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report details migrations and seasonal ranges from 36 additional herds and includes 2 herd updates detailed in previous reports. The Corridor Mapping Team has mapped the migrations and seasonal ranges of 218 unique herds for the report series, including this report. The report series serves as a map-based inventory of the ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policymakers, and conservation practitioners. Building on the previous report volumes in the series, volume 5 additionally describes some of the local and national initiatives that are incorporating the products, tools, and information from this growing USGS report series.

Released February 06, 2025 13:36 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

James H. Larson, Sean Bailey, Ryan P. Maki, Victoria Christensen, Erin A. Stelzer, James C. Smith, Jamie F. LeDuc, Seth McWhorter

Lake water level fluctuations are an important factor driving variation in many ecosystem processes. The nearshore sediments that are periodically exposed and re-inundated can develop distinct physical and chemical characteristics, especially in relationship to the organic matter content of the sediments and the particle size distribution. These sediment characteristics in turn can alter the flux of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from sediments into the water column when sediments are inundated. Here, we used intact sediment core experiments across a range of sediment inundation frequencies to estimate the effect of inundation frequency on sediment nutrient flux in Kabetogama Lake, Minnesota, USA. We observed associations between elevation or inundation frequency and some sediment characteristics, but in a structural equation model, inundation frequency and the sediment properties we measured were poorly related to inorganic nutrient flux. On the other hand, inundation frequency did have a moderate association with organic N and P flux from sediments, which could be due to decay of terrestrial organic matter that accumulates on exposed sediments. We used our parameterized structural equation model to estimate how three different water level management regimes employed over the past 50 years could influence organic N and P flux from sediments. The models suggested more recent water level management regimes reduced organic N and P flux by 9%–13% and 5.9%–9.8%, respectively. Nearshore sediment flux could sustain and influence harmful algal blooms that occur in this lake, and these fluxes could be influenced by water level management.

Released February 06, 2025 10:18 EST

2025, Biological Reviews

Renee A. McPherson, Katrina E. Alger, Erik K. Hofmeister

Migratory birds are species of concern that play important ecological roles while also supporting recreational opportunities for the hunting and birdwatching public. Direct and indirect effects of climate variability, extremes, and change on migratory bird health manifest at the individual, population, species, and community levels. This review focuses on the effects of climate on migratory birds that spend part of their life cycles in the south-central USA. Although gaps in knowledge remain, prior studies provide a solid foundation to understand how climate affects migratory birds to inform management priorities and actions.

Released February 06, 2025 10:17 EST

2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Jeffrey J. McGuire, Carl W. Ulberg, Angela I. Lux, Maren Bose, J.R. Andrews, Deborah Smith, B. Crowell, Jessica R. Murray, I. Henson, R. Hartog, C. Felizardo, Minh Huynh, M. Aranha, Grace Alexandra Parker, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Mark Hunter Murray, Glenn Biasi, Stephen Guiwits, J.K. Saunders, Andrew D. Good, V. Marcelo Santillan, C.W. Scrivener, Walter M. Szeliga, Timothy I. Melbourne, Victor Kress, Robert M. de Groot, Sara McBride, Douglas D. Given, Richard Allen, Thomas H. Heaton, Allen L. Husker, Valerie I. Thomas, Harold Tobin, Sumant Jha, Julian Bunn

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most likely to achieve this goal in large‐magnitude earthquakes. In recent years, ShakeAlert has gone through a series of upgrades to its underlying scientific algorithms aimed at improved performance during large earthquakes. Version 3 of this software recently went live in the production system and includes improvements to all algorithms. The main seismic algorithms that detect an earthquake and characterize its location, magnitude, and fault rupture orientation are faster than older versions. Other key changes include: using real‐time geodetic data to characterize the magnitude growth in large earthquakes; the introduction of an alert pause procedure to compromise between speed near the epicenter and improved accuracy at larger distances; and the inclusion of a nonergodic site‐response model in the ground‐motion predictions. ShakeAlert has achieved its primary goal of usable warning times before strong shaking at some locations in real‐time operations in recent M 6 earthquakes. Using offline tests, we demonstrate usable warning times are possible for many sites with peak shaking values of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 7–8 in M 7+ earthquakes and also for many MMI 8–9 sites in M 8+ earthquakes. ShakeAlert partners use a variety of MMI and magnitude thresholds in deciding when to alert their users within bounds set by the USGS. Our study shows that there is room to raise the magnitude thresholds up to about M 5.5 without adversely affecting performance in large earthquakes. The ground‐motion criteria are more complex owing to a significant drop‐off in warning times between the MMI 4 and 5 levels of predicted shaking. However, widely used ShakeAlert products, such as the MMI 3 and 4 contour products, can provide sufficiently long warning times before strong shaking in moderate‐to‐great earthquakes to enable a range of protective actions.

Released February 06, 2025 09:36 EST

2025, American Antiquity

Jim Feathers, Shannon A. Mahan

There is no consensus on who built the numerous stone structures that dot the archaeological landscape in the northeastern United States. Professional archaeologists traditionally have attributed them to colonial farmers, but increasing numbers of archaeologists have joined many nonprofessional groups and Native Americans in arguing for Indigenous origins. Better understanding of these structures can be obtained by determining how old they are. This article reviews nearly 60 luminescence ages, on both sediments and rocks, that have been obtained in recent years. Many of the derived ages fall in the sixteenth century, between initial European contact and substantial colonial settlement. A few ages are significantly older, suggesting that this technology has a deeper origin. The results warrant more research into these structures and rethinking their significance.

Released February 06, 2025 08:00 EST

2025, Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Johanna Alexandra Harvey, Jeffery Dale Sullivan, Rebecca L. Poulson, Deborah L. Carter, Cindy P. Driscoll, Peter C. McGowan, Carl R. Callahan, Amy W. O'Donnell, Jennifer M. Mullinax, David E. Stallknecht, Diann Prosser

Double-crested Cormorants (Nannopterum auritum) have historically exhibited low levels of infection and antibodies to avian influenza virus (AIV). The recent global expansion of clade 2.3.4.4b A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza virus H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) has resulted in large-scale mortalities across diverse waterbird taxa including cormorants. We sampled 32 and 29 Double-crested Cormorants breeding in the Chesapeake Bay, US, during the summers of 2023 and 2024, respectively, to assess HPAI H5N1 infection and AIV antibodies. Although no mortality was observed in the area, one bird sampled in 2023 was infected with HPAI H5N1. Additionally, 21/31 individuals in 2023 and 10/25 individuals in 2024 for which sera were collected had AIV antibodies. Based on additional testing using hemagglutination inhibition, virus neutralization, and an enzyme-linked lectin assay, 94 and 100% (2023 and 2024, respectively) of the seropositive birds tested positive for antibodies to both H5 and N1, suggesting previous infection with HPAI H5N1. These results are consistent with survival and limited clinical effects related to HPAI H5N1 infections. Furthermore, these results suggest that population immunity to HPAI H5N1 within the Chesapeake Bay might reduce future infections and potential population impacts should HP H5N1 remain on the landscape, though immunity may be waning across time. Because results are based on a single population, additional testing for both infection and antibodies as well as continued monitoring could enhance understanding of antibody persistence.

Released February 05, 2025 12:40 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3004

Cynthia L. Ritmiller

Introduction 

High-quality elevation data for Utah inform decision making to improve the State’s economy. Light detection and ranging (lidar) data are used to support infrastructure planning and management, assess natural resources, and improve resiliency to hazards. The expanding availability of current and more accurate lidar data helps to better support natural resource conservation, wildfire risk management, geologic hazard investigation and mitigation, flood risk management, water supply planning, and urban planning and development. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on lidar data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

The 3D Elevation Program is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Utah. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Utah is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 (https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $8.70 million in new benefits annually to the State. The top 10 Utah business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Released February 05, 2025 12:25 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5125

Faith A. Fitzpatrick, Stephen, M. Westenbroek, Paul C. Reneau, James D. Blount

In 2011–13, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study of the hydrogeomorphic setting and hydrodynamic conditions of the lower Sheboygan River and island complex within the backwater zone of Lake Michigan. Analyses of historical aerial photographs from 1938–2010 indicated that the Wildwood Islands complex had experienced mainly erosion and what was mainly one island in 1938 had eroded into about ten smaller islands and bars by 2010. Water levels, velocity and sedimentation patterns in the Sheboygan River mouth are affected by Lake Michigan water levels and seiche-related flow reversals for a potential river length of over 7 km. During the summer of 2012, when water levels in Lake Michigan were below the low water datum, seiche-related water-level fluctuations had a general range of 0.2 m and extended to just upstream of the Wildwood Islands complex, with greater variability in amplitude and frequency in the spring and fall months than in the summer. The low water level associated with the trough of a 60-90-minute seiche-related oscillation was sometimes 0.6 m lower than the low water datum. Runoff events produced river water levels during spring melt or storms that were 0.6 m above coincident Lake Michigan water levels. Frequent ice jams in the winter and early spring of 2012-13 raised river water levels to near the Lake Michigan ordinary high-water mark even though Lake Michigan water levels were at near record lows. Results from trends analyses from 1916 through 2008 indicated average annual streamflow and low flows were increasing in the Sheboygan River, but floods with an annual exceedance probability of 1 percent did not change. Simulations of a range of combinations of Lake Michigan water levels with river flows indicated that a variety of velocity patterns and water levels are possible near the Wildwood Islands complex. Simulated velocities ranged from 0 m/s during high lake levels and small river flows to 2 m/s during high lake levels and floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. Silt deposition recorded in sediment cores matched locations of flow divergence in the model simulations. Time lapse photography confirmed flow reversals in the vicinity of the Wildwood Islands complex from frequent seiche oscillations. The study illustrates the large range in variability in water levels and velocities over short periods of time, and that the lake-effect zone can be greatly extended upstream during high lake levels for low-gradient rivermouth environments.

Released February 05, 2025 11:33 EST

2025, PLoS ONE

A.T. Taylor, M.D. Tringali, James M. Long

Impoundment construction has resulted in the alternation and loss of fluvial habitats, threatening the persistence of many native fishes. Compounding this threat, non-native species stocked into impoundments often invade interconnected fluvial habitats, where they may negatively affect native species. Black basses (genus Micropterus) are popular sportfishes with divergent ecologies: some taxa are tolerant of impoundments and widely stocked to create fishing opportunities, whereas others are endemic fluvial specialists that are threatened by introgression with non-native congeneric taxa. We investigated whether impoundments facilitate non-native invasion and introgression in two case study systems: Lake Lanier, Georgia, and Lake Tenkiller, Oklahoma. In both case studies, native fluvial taxa inhabited upstream tributaries and a non-native was established within the downstream impoundment. Results from longitudinal surveys of upstream tributaries provided clear evidence that non-natives invaded upstream from impoundments, and in some cases, extensive introgression with native taxa also occurred. Variation in spatial trends of invasion and directionalities of introgression across case studies provided insights into eco-evolutionary drivers. Within the riverscapes studied, proximity to impoundment appeared to influence invasion and introgression dynamics, and in one case, stream size was also influential. Introgression rates also varied markedly across the species pairs studied–from very little introgression to the onset of hybrid swarming–illustrating the importance of underlying eco-evolutionary mechanisms such as habitat alteration, propagule pressure, and reproductive isolation. Our results underscore the need to consider the upstream influences of impoundments, and the non-natives that invade from them, to create more holistic riverscape conservation plans for fluvial fishes, including native black basses.

Released February 05, 2025 10:32 EST

2025, Nature (638) 49-57

Nicola T. Case, Sarah J. Gurr, Matthew C. Fisher, David S. Blehert, Charles Boone, Arturo Casadevall, Anuradha Chowdhary, Christina A. Cuomo, Cameron R. Currie, David W. Denning, Iuliana V. Ene, Lillian K. Fritz-Laylin, Aleeza C. Gerstein, Neil A. R. Gow, Asiya Gusa, Iliyan D. Iliev, Timothy Y. James, Hailing Jin, Regine Kahmann, Bruce S. Klein, James W. Kronstad, Kyla S. Ost, Kabir G. Peay, Rebecca S. Shapiro, Donald C. Sheppard, Neta Shlezinger, Jason E. Stajich, Eva H. Stukenbrock, John W. Taylor, Gerard D. Wright, Leah E. Cowen, Joseph Heitman, Julia A. Segre

Over the past billion years, the fungal kingdom has diversified to more than two million species, with over 95% still undescribed. Beyond the well-known macroscopic mushrooms and microscopic yeast, fungi are heterotrophs that feed on almost any organic carbon, recycling nutrients through the decay of dead plants and animals and sequestering carbon into Earth’s ecosystems. Human-directed applications of fungi extend from leavened bread, alcoholic beverages and biofuels to pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics and psychoactive compounds. Conversely, fungal infections pose risks to ecosystems ranging from crops to wildlife to humans; these risks are driven, in part, by human and animal movement, and might be accelerating with climate change. Genomic surveys are expanding our knowledge of the true biodiversity of the fungal kingdom, and genome-editing tools make it possible to imagine harnessing these organisms to fuel the bioeconomy. Here, we examine the fungal threats facing civilization and investigate opportunities to use fungi to combat these threats.

Released February 05, 2025 09:28 EST

2025, Plants (14)

Qing Ji, Kurt P. Kowalski, Edward M. Golenberg, Seung Ho Chung, Natalie D. Barker, Wesley A. Bickford, Ping Gong

As a popular tool for gene function characterization and gene therapy, RNA interference (RNAi)-based gene silencing has been increasingly explored for potential applications to control invasive species. At least two major hurdles exist when applying this approach to invasive plants: (1) the design and screening of species- and gene-specific biomacromolecules (i.e., gene-silencing agents or GSAs) made of DNA, RNA, or peptides that can suppress the expression of target genes efficiently, and (2) the delivery vehicle needed to penetrate plant cell walls and other physical barriers (e.g., leaf cuticles). In this study, we investigated the cell-penetrating peptide (CPP)-mediated delivery of multiple types of GSAs (e.g., double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), artificial microRNA (amiRNA), and antisense oligonucleotide (ASO)) to knock down a putative phytoene desaturase (PDS) gene in the invasive common reed (Phragmites australis spp. australis). Both microscopic and quantitative gene expression evidence demonstrated the CPP-mediated internalization of GSA cargos and transient suppression of PDS expression in both treated and systemic leaves up to 7 days post foliar application. Although various GSA combinations and application rates and frequencies were tested, we observed limitations, including low gene-silencing efficiency and a lack of physiological trait alteration, likely owing to low CPP payload capacity and the incomplete characterization of the PDS-coding genes (e.g., the recent discovery of two PDS paralogs) in P. australis. Our work lays a foundation to support further research toward the development of convenient, cost-effective, field-deployable, and environmentally benign gene-silencing technologies for invasive P. australis management.

Released February 05, 2025 09:00 EST

2025, Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Alexandra G. Tissot, Elise F. Granek, Fiona Curliss, Augustin Kalytiak-Davis, Jason Hodin, Michelle Hladik

Sea star wasting syndrome (SSWS) has affected numerous species of sea star, with populations of Pycnopodia helianthoides (Brandt, 1835) left most at risk. As their populations are struggling to recover, it is important to gain a better understanding of the impacts that the multiple stressors in their habitats can have on their populations. Contaminant stressors in particular are of increasing importance, as aquatic organisms can be exposed to a dynamic range of contaminants from nearby anthropogenic activity that may affect their future recovery efforts. This study is the first to quantify the effects of contaminant stressors on the larvae of P. helianthoides. We exposed P. helianthoides larvae to the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid and polyester microfibers, both individually and in combination, at environmentally relevant concentrations (10 ng/L and 25 fibers/L, respectively) to measure the effects of these contaminants on their early life stages. Imidacloprid exposure resulted in stomach malformation in 10% of larvae and increased mortality during early development (p < 0.001), and all treatments resulted in increased larval lengths relative to controls (p < 0.001). During settlement, imidacloprid resulted in more rapid settlement responses than in the controls (p < 0.01). These findings highlight the need for further research investigating the effects of contaminant stressors to endangered organisms during reintroduction, as well as a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of pesticides to non-target organisms.