Released December 12, 2025 11:15 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1042

Anya Metcalfe, Morgan Ford, Lawrence E. Stevens, Theodore Kennedy

Management practices that enhance habitat complexity in dam tailwaters often aim to increase biodiversity and improve ecosystem health. However, in other instances, management practices may simplify habitat features to help minimize the establishment of invasive species. These tradeoffs are complex, particularly in the face of drought and warming water temperatures. In Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, a backwater known as −12 Mile Slough (henceforth the Slough), located 5-kilometers downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, is being considered for removal to reduce breeding habitat for warmwater nonnative fishes. In this report, the habitat suitability for and occupancy of dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata) at the Slough are assessed. U.S. Geological Survey staff conducted three site visits to the Colorado River in Glen Canyon, the Slough, and another backwater (“Frogwater”) on September 11–13, and 26, 2024. The physical habitat of the sampling sites was characterized by recording water temperatures, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, flow, depth, and benthic substratum size distribution. We sampled aquatic macroinvertebrates and riparian macroinvertebrates using benthic and aerial collection methods, respectively. We describe three distinct benthic aquatic invertebrate communities in and around the Slough, two of which contained Odonata. We found no Odonata larvae in the mainstem, at Frogwater, or in the Lower Slough. Using historic specimen data from the Museum of Northern Arizona, we report 8 species of damselflies from one family (Coenagrionidae) and 8 species of dragonflies from three families (Aeshnidae, Gomphidae, and Libellulidae) in Glen Canyon between 1985 and 2024. We discuss the habitat requirements of Odonata larvae known to occur in the Slough, as well as their cultural and recreational values. We conclude that channelization of the Slough to cool water temperatures may reduce larval Odonata habitat locally but is unlikely to affect their diversity and abundance on a regional scale.

Released December 12, 2025 09:17 EST

2025, Seismological Research Letters

Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Allison Shumway, Julie A. Herrick

Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded seismicity models for use in the 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The previous PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and our new models incorporate updates to both data and methodology. We utilize an updated earthquake catalog based on improved Puerto Rico Seismic Network data with newly characterized completeness epochs. The catalog is divided into crustal, subduction interface, and intraslab seismicity using new methods and Slab2 subduction zone geometries. To forecast the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquakes, we use an updated methodology developed for the 2023 U.S. 50‐state NSHM, considering three declustering methods and two spatial smoothing methods based on 2D Gaussian kernels. To adapt it for the complex seismotectonics of the region, we also adopt probabilistic methods to account for events with unknown depths and uncertainties in tectonic classification, and develop a new method for spatial scaling to counteract the effects of spatial variability in network coverage while maintaining the use of smaller events. Finally, we test the performance of these spatial models in forecasting the location of M_w ≥ 5earthquakes in the region. Our updated methodology improves the representation of epistemic uncertainty relative to the 2003 model, and our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new measures we have introduced to address heterogeneities in network detection and systematically evaluate forecast performance.

Released December 12, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, Mineralium Deposita

George N.D. Case

Increasing demand for graphite in energy storage systems warrants review of graphite ore genesis in a mineral systems framework. Orogenic graphite encompasses the metamorphic and orogenic mineral systems that produce flake graphite and hydrothermal vein (lump and chip) graphite deposits, respectively. A common feature of orogenic graphite deposits is an association with upper amphibolite- to granulite-facies metasedimentary rocks in continent-continent or continent-island arc collisional orogens. Orogenic flake graphite deposits form primarily through graphitization of organic carbon during regional metamorphism, but strain localization and partial melting of pelitic protoliths are likely important processes for graphite grade and quality enrichment. Orogenic vein graphite deposits precipitate from hydrothermal fluids, possibly derived from metamorphism or anatexis at depth. Decarbonation reactions in mixed calcareous-carbonaceous metasedimentary sequences are the most likely carbon sources for the veins. In contrast, intrusion-related graphite includes magmatic-hydrothermal and metamorphic mineral systems that form primarily in continental arc settings via the interaction of magmas with carbonaceous sedimentary packages. Magmatic-hydrothermal flake graphite deposits are hosted in plutonic and volcanic rocks, and result from the exsolution of CO₂-CH₄-rich fluids from melts contaminated by such packages. Contact metamorphism of carbonaceous sedimentary rocks by plutons produces some microcrystalline (amorphous) graphite deposits, including many in China. Compilation of geologic data from known graphite deposits globally suggests that pulses of carbon deposition in the Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic provided source carbon material. Subsequent supercontinent orogenesis at ca. 2,100 to 1,700 Ma (Columbia), ca. 1,300 to 1,000 Ma (Rodinia), and ca. 650 to 500 Ma (Gondwana) resulted in the genesis of orogenic flake and vein graphite deposits, where favorable geologic components overlapped with organic ± carbonate carbon-rich strata. Cryogenian deposition of graphite protoliths and Cryogenian – Cambrian metamorphic mineralization account for nearly 75% of all known resources globally and coincide with profound carbon isotope excursions and climate variability, implying a link with the global carbon budget. Comparatively few graphite deposits are associated with Pangea-forming orogens, attributed to less exhumation and/or denudation. High-temperature metasedimentary belts containing organic carbon-rich protoliths are most favorable for hosting orogenic flake graphite deposits, whereas sequences that also contain carbonate protoliths are favorable for orogenic graphite veins. Continent-scale orogenic belts may host both deposit types along with vanadium deposits. Use of a time-space mineral systems framework for graphite deposits can improve exploration models needed to ensure future supply of this critical mineral and provide insights into Earth’s long-term carbon cycle.

Released December 11, 2025 09:41 EST

2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Ian P. Stone, Erin A. Wirth, Alex R. Grant, Arthur D. Frankel

We simulate ground shaking in western Washington State from hypothetical  M_w7.0–7.5 earthquakes on the southern Whidbey Island fault (SWIF). Ground motions are modeled considering kinematic source distributions on a complex fault plane, a 3D seismic velocity model, and region‐specific soil velocity models. We run simulations with varying model resolutions, including regional‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼1 Hz and local‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼2.5 Hz. Additional local‐scale simulations are run considering high‐resolution surface topography. We explore how source parameters (i.e., magnitude, hypocenter location, and dip direction) and 3D velocity structure impact peak shaking intensity and its variability. In particular, we find that earthquakes on the SWIF would likely produce strong shaking throughout the populated Puget Lowland, including in the cities of Everett, Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma, Washington. Simulated short‐period (T ≤ 2 s) spectral accelerations are strong throughout the Puget Lowland, and long‐period shaking (T ≥ 5 s) is strong in the deep regional sedimentary basins, especially the Everett and Seattle basins. Source parameters strongly influence intra‐ and interevent variability in response, primarily through changes in source and site geometry, as well as rupture directivity. We also note a potential coupling between rupture directivity and basin effects, wherein directivity pulses are seemingly guided through the region’s deep, interconnected sedimentary basins. Overall, this work highlights the impacts of 3D source, path, and site effects on seismic hazard in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and substantially expands the catalog of simulated ground motions for Puget Sound area crustal faults.

Released December 11, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, International Journal of Wildland Fire (34)

Casey Elizabeth Menick, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Joshua J. Picotte, Alicia L. Reiner, Robert A. Chastain

Phenological correction of pre- and post-fire imagery is used to improve remotely sensed burn severity evaluations. Unburned offset values standardize greenness between image pairs; however, efficacy across diverse scenarios remains underexplored.

We evaluated the impact of phenological offset correction methods to support analyst decision-making across fire-prone environments.

We generated burn severity spectral index values for a dataset of Composite Burn Index (CBI) field plots across the conterminous US. The effectiveness of offset corrections was tested across image selection techniques, spectral indices, offset generation methods and burn perimeter sources. We assessed the influence of offset corrections on the modeled relationship with CBI, agreement between burn severity thresholds and potential bias.

Applying offset corrections consistently improved the modeled relationship with CBI by addressing extreme outlier severity values. However, automated offset corrections had the potential to introduce bias, systematically lowering severity values and reducing correspondence with observed burn severity categories.

Offset corrections offer benefits but also present trade-offs to accurately representing remotely sensed burn severity.

The utility of offset corrections depends on the environment, methods and scale of analysis. We propose a decision-tree framework for analysts to consider when employing offset corrections given their study scope.

Released December 11, 2025 09:01 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Graziella Vittoria DiRenzo, Rebecca McCaffery, Ana V. Longo, Kelly R. Zamudio, Karen R. Lips

Emerging infectious diseases can cause rapid, widespread host mortality, and the lack of demographic data before and after pathogen emergence complicates understanding mechanisms of host persistence. This challenge is further compounded by environmental conditions that influence host behavior, while driving pathogen growth and virulence. These interactions create complex disease outcomes that hinder predictions of when and how hosts endure pathogen outbreaks. Here, we analyzed 10 years of capture-mark-recapture data (2000–2014) spanning wet and dry seasons for male Espadarana prosoblepon in El Copé, Panama, encompassing a period before (2000–2004) and after (2010–2014) a Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) outbreak using Jolly-Seber models. We found that post-Bd male E. prosoblepon population size (range in mean population size among primary periods = 136–225 individuals) was similar to pre-Bd population size (range in mean population size among primary periods = 201–242 individuals). Pre-Bd, average monthly survival probability in the wet season was 0.93 (95% credible interval [CI] = 0.90–0.96). Post-Bd, uninfected individuals had survival probability higher in the wet season (mean = 0.97; [95% CI = 0.95–0.98]) than the dry season (mean = 0.90 [95% CI = 0.84–0.94]), while survival probability for infected individuals decreased as a function of Bd infection intensity. Pre-Bd, mean monthly per-capita entry probability was 0.07 (95% CI = 0.05–0.10), and post-Bd, mean monthly per-capita entry probability was 0.06 (95% CI = 0.00–0.10). Lastly, infection probability during the wet season was lower (mean = 0.04 [95% CI = 0.03–0.05]) than the dry season (mean = 0.10 [95% CI = 0.05–0.15]), and recovery probability during the wet season was lower (mean = 0.19 [95% CI = 0.11–0.28]) than the dry season (mean = 0.54 [95% CI = 0.20–0.88]). Our findings suggest that survival probabilities of uninfected individuals, as well as per-capita entry probabilities, are similar pre- and post-Bd, leading to a stable and similar sized pre-Bd population. These results contribute to understanding disease dynamics and tropical amphibian ecology.

Released December 10, 2025 13:40 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1056

Deborah Bergfeld, Jennifer L. Lewicki, Sara Peek, Andrew Hunt

This report presents chemical and isotopic compositions of volcanic gases collected from thermal areas within Lassen Volcanic National Park in northern California from 1974 through 2019. As the southernmost volcano in the Cascade Range and designated a very-high-threat volcano by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC) requires consistent monitoring to assess potential volcanic hazards. In 2014, the California Volcano Observatory established a gas geochemical monitoring program at LVC to provide baseline data to evaluate future changes. Results demonstrate consistent spatial patterns in bulk gas chemistry that support a two-circulation-cell hydrothermal model previously established for LVC. Gas samples from circulation cell 1 thermal areas have higher helium isotope ratios (6.59–7.50 times the air value) than those from circulation cell 2 (5.86–6.52 times the air value), indicating a stronger magmatic signature. The Sulphur Works and Pilot Pinnacle thermal areas within circulation cell 1 consistently emit gases with the highest magmatic helium contents, suggesting gas at these areas best represents conditions in the underlying volcanic system. A slight decrease in helium isotope values since 1974 may indicate progressive dilution of magmatic helium-3 (3He) by radiogenic helium-4 (4He) in the absence of recent magma intrusion. Carbon isotope compositions of carbon dioxide across all thermal areas are relatively uniform (−9.7–−7.3 per mil), falling within the range observed at other Cascade Range volcanoes. Based on gas geochemical characteristics and site accessibility, the Sulphur Works and Pilot Pinnacle thermal areas represent optimal targets for continued monitoring of the LVC magmatic-hydrothermal system. This study includes the most comprehensive helium isotope dataset collected at LVC currently available and establishes critical baseline data for future volcanic monitoring efforts.

Released December 10, 2025 09:50 EST

2025, Mineralium Deposita

Allen K. Andersen, Michael Jenkins

Exploration continues for contact-style Ni-Cu sulfide and chromitite-associated PGE mineralization in ultramafic rocks of the Stillwater Complex. At the Iron and Chrome Mountain areas, massive sulfides occur along the complex’s footwall contact and anomalous concentrations of PGE+Au are associated with the three lowermost chromitite seams. Southeast of Chrome Mountain, magmatic layering is highly disrupted by the presence of faults, magmatic breccias, serpentinized discordant dunites, pyroxenite pegmatoids, and disaggregated chromitite seams. The bulk rock chemistry, sulfide chemistry, and noble metal mineralogy of samples from this area were examined to determine the deportment of PGE and processes that led to enrichments in PGE, Au, Cu, Co and Ni. Results show that a sulfide liquid was the principal collector of PGE. If sulfide liquid was initially deposited with chromite, it was disaggregated or redistributed by subsequent melt or fluid infiltration, which may have resulted in the offset of peak PGE(+Cu, Ni) from peak Cr₂O₃ concentrations, and upgraded PGE tenors. Upon cooling, PGE exsolved from sulfides to form discrete bismuth tellurides, arsenides, arsenic sulfides, antimonides, and alloys, commonly along the margins of sulfide globules. Calculated metal tenors are highest in the disseminated sulfides southwest of Chrome Mountain, whereas massive and net-textured sulfides near the Iron Mountain-Camp zone represent monosulfide solid solution cumulates. At progressively shallower levels, higher metal tenors combined with lower S/Se ratios are consistent with increasing R-factors from 100 to 100,000. Serpentinization and talc-tremolite alteration resulted in S loss through partial replacement of sulfides by secondary silicate+carbonate+magnetite+sulfide assemblages, further upgrading Ni-Cu-PGE tenors. The present work shows that processes responsible for the disruption of magmatic layering and post-magmatic fluid alteration along the intrusion’s lower contact led to noble and base metal enrichments.

Released December 10, 2025 09:34 EST

2025, Conservation Physiology (13)

Amy M. Regish, Matthew O’Donnell, Benjamin Letcher, Timothy Lambert, Daniel J. Hall, Stephen D. McCormick

Climate change has resulted in increased incidence and variability of warming episodes in cold-water streams that support salmonids. The capacity to acclimate to warm temperatures may allow cold-water fish to persist in spite of changing thermal regimes, but accurately predicting fish performance under fluctuating stream temperatures also requires understanding re-acclimation to cool water, which is less well understood. We tested how thermal acclimation to warm temperatures and re-acclimation to cool water affected thermal tolerance and physiological endpoints in juvenile brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We show that an initial thermal exposure (22°C, ΔT = 7°C) of 3, 7 and 14 days (but not 1 day) improved critical thermal maximum (CT_max) after a 14-day re-acclimation to cooler temperatures (15°C). Fish growth during the re-acclimation period decreased with increasing duration of initial thermal exposure (22°C). Physiological parameters associated with thermal acclimation (cortisol, glucose, haematocrit and haemoglobin) were lower at 15°C re-acclimation temperature than at the initial thermal treatment (22°C) and in some cases, lower than the 15°C control. Muscle HSP70 protein increased early (1 day) as part of the warm acclimation process and remained elevated at lower levels for up to 14 days. During re-acclimation to 15°C, HSP70 decreased relative to initial measures at 22°C. Fish exposed to the longest thermal treatment (22°C for 14 days) maintained elevated CT_max after 30 days of re-acclimation to 15°C without observed differences in the measured physiological endpoints but returned to control levels after 42 days at 15°C. This work shows that high-temperature acclimation effects in brook trout are retained for up to 30 days following re-acclimation to cool temperatures, and that isolated warming events may be expected to temporarily enhance thermal tolerance in subsequent thermal challenges.

Released December 10, 2025 09:14 EST

2026, Bulletin of Volcanology (88)

Steven P. Lundblad, Peter R. Mills, Kendra J. Lynn, Elisabeth Gallant, Cheryl Gansecki, Meghann Decker, Drew T. Downs

Syn-eruption geochemical monitoring during volcanic activity is an important component of integrated volcanic monitoring. Volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i are primarily monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory using instrumental networks, field surveys, satellite observations, and petrologic monitoring. In collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo, an important component of this monitoring is near-real-time (generally within 24 h of sample collection) bulk-rock geochemistry using benchtop energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF). Bulk-rock geochemistry, coupled with additional petrologic and geophysical analyses, are used to track eruption dynamics to help facilitate identification and understanding of changes that signal the onset of potentially hazardous activity. In this paper, we present EDXRF methodology for bulk-rock analysis used to evaluate the 2018 Kīlauea and 2022 Mauna Loa eruptions and compare this technique to other geochemical methods. Syn-eruption geochemical monitoring using EDXRF provides reliable quantitative data that is important for understanding eruption dynamics. Critical to this process are calibrating the instrument for analysis over the same range of compositions expected during volcanic activity, compiling a relevant database from past eruptions on the same instrument for comparison, and having the physical infrastructure and trained personnel to complete the analyses in a timely fashion. In addition to the scientific goals of petrologic monitoring, near-real-time geochemical analysis in Hawaii provides important information about the nature of on-going eruptions and informs decision-makers and the public about associated evolving hazards.

Released December 10, 2025 08:31 EST

2026, Marine Pollution Bulletin

Bria Bleil, Elise F. Granek, Nathan L. Kirk, Michelle Hladik

Widespread pesticide and herbicide use paired with frequent transport away from application sites has led to pesticide presence in nearly all terrestrial and aquatic environments globally. Pesticides have unintentional toxic effects on non-target organisms by interfering with cellular processes, behavior, feeding, reproduction, and disrupting endocrine processes. The aggregating anemone, Anthopleura elegantissima, is an important species along the North American Pacific coast due to its symbiotic relationships that contribute to high productivity, and its clonal abundance that structures the rocky intertidal habitat. Commonly used pesticides, atrazine, diuron, and carbendazim were previously detected in coastal waters of Oregon, U.S.A. This study examined the potential effects of these pesticides at environmentally relevant concentrations on reproduction, symbionts, and behavior of A. elegantissima over an eight-week period. Pesticides significantly decreased gonad development in all treatments, having the most significant effect in individual treatments of atrazine (p = 0.003), carbendazim (p = 0.003), and the mixture of all three pesticides (p = 0.008). All pesticide treatments significantly increased cloning behavior compared to the control, suggesting that cloning could be a stress response. Pesticide exposure also significantly increased tentacle retraction movement, suggesting possible metabolic or energy impairments. While other studies have previously found behavioral changes in anemones due to pollutants, our study is the first to document behavioral changes in anemones from pesticide exposure. All three pesticides significantly impacted a non-target marine invertebrate at environmentally relevant concentrations, which underscores the value of studies that focus on effects on marine invertebrates, paired with comprehensive pesticide monitoring in coastal areas.

Released December 09, 2025 16:20 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1055

Brian D. Healy, Corey C. Phillis, Brian Mahardja, Cameron Koizumi, Catarina Pien, Nancy Parker, J. Louise Conrad, Julie Ekstrom, Julie Leimbach, Rafael Silberblatt, Tom Fischer, Chase Ehlo

Managers of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Projects (SWP) in California are confronted with difficult tradeoffs between water uses and associated values affected by water management decisions. These decisions involve altering the timing and magnitude of water releases from dams and reservoirs, which can affect habitats for economically important and Federally and State-listed endangered fish species, water deliveries for agriculture or municipalities, and water quality. In this report, we describe the results of a rapid structured decision-making process used to assist management agencies in evaluating tradeoffs while gathering input from cooperating agencies, rightsholders, or interested parties (hereafter participants) through facilitated workshops in spring 2025. Consideration of alternative water management actions was initiated by the continued decline of Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) populations and the issuance of a new biological opinion for the CVP and SWP long-term operations on the effects on delta smelt and other Endangered Species Act-listed species in November 2024. An Executive Order was also issued in January 2025, directing the Bureau of Reclamation to maximize water deliveries. Participants, led by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating agencies, identified 8 fundamental values (hereafter objectives) and 11 alternative water management scenarios (or “alternative management actions” based on the PrOACT model). Using multicriteria decision analysis, we evaluated performance (or “consequences” based on a consequence table analysis) and analyzed tradeoffs of alternative water management actions to the fundamental objectives. We ranked the alternative water management actions based on four participants’ objective weights and composite utility scores calculated using a linear value function. The three highest ranking alternative water management actions had the poorest performance for delta smelt but performed best for CVP and SWP water exports and objectives related to coldwater pool operations for salmonids. An optimum strategy that could prevent the extinction of delta smelt was not determined for this study. However, insights gained from our rapid decision analysis suggested nonflow scenarios could benefit the delta smelt population, including in drier years, and could be considered to avoid curtailment of water exports.

Released December 09, 2025 16:10 EST

2025, General Information Product 263

Shonte Jenkins, Emily Pindilli, David Applegate, Rachel E. Reagan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy.¹

Mapping the Nation

$21B
     Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B.
$25.6B
     is the annual value to users of key Earth observation platforms like Landsat, which is managed by the USGS.
$13.5B
     in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program.

Securing America’s Energy Independence

44%
     USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation.
29.4B
     barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments.

Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety

$424B
     in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk.
     USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption.
$4.5B
     is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property.

Supporting National Security

$3.1B
     The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list.

Enhancing Our Lands and Waters

$21B
     in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation.
     USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone.
$45B
     USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy.

Fostering American Prosperity

$4.1T
     Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued.
45,000 metric tons
     Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply.

Guarding American Food Security

$70.2B
     USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production.
$11.8B
     USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry.

¹Values are given in billions (B) and millions (M) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

Released December 09, 2025 10:07 EST

2025, Communications Earth & Environment (6)

Jhardel Dasent, Vashan Wright, Katherine M. Scharer, Michael Manga, Richard Kilburn

Many subsurface processes involve transitions in granular material states, from arrested to creeping to flowing. Experiments and frameworks for idealized systems reveal that granular fabrics develop during shearing, co-evolve with applied stress, and govern such transitions. We use microtomography to test whether fabrics at two San Andreas fault sites reflect slip history and whether idealized frameworks extend to nature. Near-surface sediments within the fault zone transition between deformation patterns over the seismic cycle, including bulk/localized grain re-arrangements, individual grain fracturing, and localized zones of fracturing. Aseismic and co-seismic shearing produce distinct preferred grain orientations. Co-seismic fabrics can be preserved after centuries of aseismic strain, aseismic fabrics may be overprinted, and grain size and coordination number influence the fabrics. Idealized frameworks, namely anisotropic critical state theory, frictional jamming, and material memory, can explain our observations, and fault zone sediments likely undergo cycles of memory creation and erasure that influence rigidity spatiotemporally.

Released December 08, 2025 13:13 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5086

Kendall M.F. Goldstein, Kyle W. Davis

The Iowa River alluvial aquifer is an important source of water on the Meskwaki Settlement in Tama County, Iowa, which is land owned by the Sac & Fox Tribe of the Mississippi in Iowa (commonly known as the Meskwaki Nation). The U.S. Geological Survey constructed a groundwater flow model, including a conceptual and numerical model, of the Iowa River alluvial aquifer and underlying hydrogeologic units near the Meskwaki Settlement in Tama County, Iowa, for the period of January 1980–August 2022 to estimate the fraction of water pumped from the Iowa River alluvial aquifer by Meskwaki Settlement wells that is derived from streamflow depletion in the Iowa River and its tributaries. Streamflow depletion is a reduction in streamflow caused by groundwater pumping and includes the interception by groundwater production wells of water that otherwise would have been discharged to streams (called “captured groundwater discharge”) and induced infiltration of streamflow to the production wells. Calibrated model runs were performed with no simulated pumping and simulated pumping only at Meskwaki Settlement wells, and the change in simulated flow rates between the groundwater system and streams for the two model runs represents the amount of streamflow depletion in the Iowa River and tributary streams resulting from pumping at the Meskwaki Settlement wells. Streamflow depletion in the Iowa River and its tributaries as a percentage of simulated pumping at the Meskwaki Settlement wells was calculated by dividing this difference by the total simulated pumping rate for the Meskwaki Settlement wells. The model results demonstrate that the mean monthly streamflow depletion, including induced infiltration and captured discharge, in the Iowa River and its tributary streams as a percentage of mean monthly pumping at the Meskwaki Settlement wells was 97.4 percent and ranged from 65.4 to 112 percent. Of the total streamflow depletion, mean monthly induced recharge was 20.9 percent and ranged from 4.9 to 37.2 percent. Mean monthly captured discharge was 76.5 percent and ranged from 57.1 to 97.1 percent. These results indicate that most of the water pumped from the Meskwaki Settlement wells is the result of streamflow depletion, in the form of both induced infiltration and captured discharge.

Released December 08, 2025 10:38 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Map 3541

Jade Ziqiu Zhang, Corinne Renshaw

Miami-Dade County is part of a densely populated urban corridor in southeastern Florida. The Biscayne aquifer serves as Miami-Dade County’s primary drinking water source and is characterized by highly permeable karstic limestone and carbonate sand. The aquifer’s coastal location and permeable nature make it susceptible to saltwater intrusion. Monitoring the current inland extent and the rate of movement of the saltwater front in the aquifer can inform management strategies for conserving the long-term sustainability of the county’s water supply. In the 1950s, the U.S. Geological Survey published a map of the inland extent of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer and has continued to update this map to monitor changes over time, with the most recent update published in 2018. An updated map has been created showing the approximate inland extent of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer in eastern Miami-Dade County in 2022, with the 2018 extent shown for comparison. The inland extent of saltwater intrusion was mapped through the interpretation of borehole electromagnetic induction logs and measurements of chloride and specific conductance in groundwater samples. The location of the saltwater interface at the base of the Biscayne aquifer was represented by the 1,000-milligram-per-liter isochlor. This report describes changes in the location of the saltwater interface from 2018 to 2022. By 2022, the saltwater interface had moved farther inland in both the northern and southern parts of the county, advancing by as much as 0.3 kilometer in the north and up to 0.8 kilometer in the Model Land Area to the south. However, it remained relatively unchanged from its 2018 position in the east-central part of the county.

Released December 08, 2025 10:04 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Andrea N. Casey, Matthew A. Mensinger, Joseph D. Zydlewski

Released December 08, 2025 06:36 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5091

Erin L. Gray, Christina L. Ferguson

The Lee Acres Landfill and Giant Bloomfield Refinery are adjacent properties near the City of Farmington, New Mexico, each having undergone monitoring and remediation related to historical site activities. At the landfill, site cleanup has included the installation of a capillary barrier over former liquid waste lagoons and periodic monitoring of groundwater elevations and groundwater quality. At the refinery, remediation has focused on several petrochemical and crude oil release areas and included soil excavation, groundwater treatment, and regular monitoring of groundwater elevations and quality. Groundwater at both sites has higher concentrations of volatile organic compounds and trace metals than background aquifer concentrations. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey compiled the Lee Acres-Giant Bloomfield Refinery Database (LAGBRD), which contains publicly available groundwater-elevation data and organic and inorganic groundwater-quality data from both sites, spanning from 1985 to 2020. Data from the LAGBRD and precipitation data from other sources were used to better understand the cause of relatively high manganese concentrations observed in some groundwater wells at the site through comparison of groundwater chemistry to chemical end members, interpretation of spatial and temporal patterns in the groundwater chemistry, and interpretation of groundwater flow properties. In this study, elevated chloride concentrations in groundwater downgradient from the landfill have been attributed to landfill leachate based on the temporal and spatial variability of chloride concentrations and chloride-to-bromide ratios. Installation of a capillary barrier and surface-water runoff controls at the landfill in 2005 appears to have altered infiltration patterns at that site, resulting in a decrease in chloride at some wells but an increase in chloride and dissolved manganese at others. The timing and relation among groundwater elevation, chloride concentration, and manganese concentration suggest that leachate stored in the vadose zone provides a continued source of contamination to groundwater.

Released December 05, 2025 09:59 EST

2026, Ecological Engineering (224)

Aaron J. Porter, Christopher M. Ruck, Spencer John Tassone

Regulatory mandates to improve water quality and stream health have driven substantial investment in stream restoration. Most projects aim to improve channel-floodplain connectivity, reduce sediment erosion, and enhance habitat for aquatic organisms, yet few include adequate pre- and post-restoration monitoring to assess outcomes. Since 2007, Fairfax County, Virginia, and the U.S. Geological Survey have partnered to monitor and evaluate water-quality conditions in Flatlick Branch. In 2018, a 1.72-km reach of stream above the monitoring station was restored using a Natural Channel Design approach. This study applied the Stream Functions Pyramid (SFP) framework to evaluate restoration tradeoffs. Post-restoration, watershed hydrology remained largely unchanged, but channel modifications increased flow capacity, reduced velocity, and further disconnected the channel from the floodplain. Nutrient and sediment reductions exceeded expected amounts, but the removal of over 20 % of riparian tree canopy increased physicochemical variability and the frequency and magnitude of water temperature heatwaves. Post-restoration, state standards for low dissolved oxygen and elevated pH were exceeded 2.5 and 7.5 times more often, respectively. Gross primary production and ecosystem respiration increased and organic matter sources supporting metabolism shifted from allochthonous to autochthonous. Trends in several benthic macroinvertebrate metrics, which were improving prior to construction, have since plateaued or declined, and the fish assemblage shifted from a native minnow dominated community to non-native, warmwater tolerant taxa. This study highlights the need for comprehensive assessments of stream restoration and benefits of using the SFP to understand the consequences and possible tradeoffs of different ecosystem management decisions.

Released December 05, 2025 09:43 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3041

Ryan C. McCammon, Noel A. Deyette, Gregory A. Wetherbee

The National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) collects atmospheric data to monitor air pollution effects on the quality of United States water supplies and ecosystems. The NADP requires consistent data collection at fixed locations and is governed by a committee with participation by many Federal and State agencies, universities, Tribes, and private companies. NADP conducts a spring business meeting where the Network Operations, Education and Outreach, and multiple science subcommittees adjourn to discuss all aspects of NADP. Similar to the spring meeting, a fall meeting occurs with the addition of a two-day scientific symposium where scientists present their research using NADP data.

Released December 05, 2025 09:35 EST

2025, Report

Cecily M. Costello, Justin A. Dellinger, Jennifer K. Fortin-Noreus, Mark Haroldson, Bryn Karabensh, Wayne F. Kasworm, Lori L. Roberts, Justin E. Teisberg, Frank T. van Manen, Tyler J. Vent

Understanding the distribution of grizzly bear populations in the lower-48 states, is important for their conservation and management, and for public safety. Previously, our research teams working in grizzly bear ecosystems in the lower-48 states used varying methods to estimate distribution of grizzly bear populations. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) and Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), zonal analysis and ordinary kriging were applied to an array of grid cells with or without verified presence of grizzly bears, however the parameters of the methods varied between the two ecosystems. In the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) and the Selkirk Ecosystem (SE), population distribution was mapped as the Recovery Zone plus “bears outside of Recovery Zone” areas (Allen 2011). Additionally, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service developed a method for estimating areas where grizzly bears “may be present” to help agencies or prospective applicants evaluate whether or not proposed actions may affect grizzly bears (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2020). Since the mid 2010s, cooperating agencies have collaborated in documenting and maintaining a database of verified outlier observations that occur between or well outside of grizzly bear Recovery Zones and these data inform the “may be present” mapping.

Released December 05, 2025 09:22 EST

2025, Gulf and Caribbean Research (36) 38-48

Theodore J. Zenzal Jr., Amanda Nicole Anderson, Brock Geary, Jessica Schulz, Robert C. Dobbs, Wylie C. Barrow, Hardin Waddle

Animal populations often experience acute natural disturbances, most of which are connected to short—term weather events. Occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones during the peak of the avian breeding season are likely to increase with climate change, which can substantially impact populations of coastal breeding birds at multiple scales. To understand the acute impacts of severe tropical cyclones, we investigated how abundances of breeding birds changed before and after 4 early season named tropical cyclones on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico. We detected a change in pre— versus post—storm numbers of breeding birds after 2 out of 4 storms between 2015–2020. Following Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Barry, significant declines in breeding adults ranged from a reduction of 32 Willets (Tringa semipalmata) to 105 Wilson’s Plover (Anarhynchus wilsonia) and 18 Willets to 1,794 Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), respectively. The lack of response following 2 storms was likely due to the location of the storms relative to the island. Following the 2 storms that did elicit a response by breeding birds, we observed lower abundances in the majority of species after the storm passed. Species life histories and habitat restoration might explain the species—specific responses we observed. Our study documents occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones negatively affecting coastal breeding birds, which could be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, our findings may provide insights regarding island design and nest susceptibility to flooding events, which may aid land managers as well as conservation and restoration planners.

Released December 04, 2025 10:10 EST

2025, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (380)

Jeremy S. Brooks, Rebecca Koomen, Peter Søgaard-Jørgensen, Richard Eugene Waggaman Berl, Wendy Chavez-Paez, Dustin Eirdosh, Moh Abdul Hakim, Susan Hanisch, Christine Lindell, James Liu, Minh Hiếu Nguyễn, Anne Pisor, Douglas Rogers, Rainer Romero-Canyas, Erik Thulin, Tim Waring

Addressing sustainability challenges requires an integrative approach that bridges scientific research with practical application. The field of cultural evolution (CE) offers a perspective that may guide transitions and cultural transformations for a sustainable future. However, there have been few efforts to apply this field to sustainability challenges. This study explores how CE can inform sustainability practices through mechanisms of social learning, processes of cultural adaptation and conditions that promote cooperative governance. Through a two-phase research design—comprising online discussions with professionals from six domains, and an international workshop—we examined the perceived benefits, challenges and opportunities for applying CE in real-world contexts. Our findings indicate that professionals recognize CE’s potential to enhance knowledge dissemination, foster adaptation to social–ecological changes, improve governance structures and generate cooperation. However, barriers such as complex terminology, unfamiliarity with CE, the lack of clear, context-specific evidence of added value and competition with existing frameworks hinder its application. To overcome these challenges, we propose simplifying CE concepts, demonstrating its unique contributions, and continuing to foster co-production with practitioners to refine its applicability. This study is an initial step in building an applied science of CE that can support sustainability transformations across diverse domains.

Released December 04, 2025 09:28 EST

2025, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (380)

Richard Eugene Waggaman Berl, Jonathan J. Fisk, Lily M. van Eeden, Jonathan Salerno, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Kirsten Leong, Jonathan W. Long, G. Scott Boomer, Christopher K. Williams, Ugo Arbieu, Lisa Lehnen, Adam Landon, Erle C. Ellis, Bas Verschuuren, Lincoln R. Larson, Michael C. Gavin

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Released December 04, 2025 09:11 EST

2025, AGU Advances (6)

Yifan Cheng, Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Andrew J. Newman, Keith Musselman, Cleo Woelfle-Hazard, Dylan Blaskey, Cassandra M. Brooks, Tvetene Carlson, Joshua C. Koch, Monica Morrison, Edda A. Mutter, Daniel Sarna-Wojcicki, Peyton Thomas, Jenessa Tlen, Ryan C. Toohey

Earth System Models (ESM) are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth's interconnected systems and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end-users, especially decision-makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision-making. While the ESM community increasingly values broad community engagement, end-users may not initially perceive models as useful for local planning. Co-designing models with end-users fosters two-way learning: users better understand models and their outputs, while modelers gain insights into fine-scale local processes like monitoring practices and management priorities. Higher-level co-design can lead to more customized, priority-driven, and useful modeling products. Despite these benefits, modelers often struggle to initiate meaningful partnerships with local communities. Therefore, this paper explores model co-design from the perspective of modelers. This study presents two case studies where modelers and social scientists collaborated with Indigenous communities' decision-makers to reflect their priorities in model design and application. In the Arctic Rivers Project, high-resolution climate and hydrology data sets for Alaska were developed with guidance from an Indigenous Advisory Council, using optimized, coupled land-atmosphere models. In the Mid-Klamath Project, we partnered with the Karuk Tribe's Department of Natural Resources to assess climate change and prescribed burning impacts on terrestrial hydrology in the Klamath River Basin. Drawing from these studies, we introduce a four-level framework: (a) Co-design Configuration; (b) Model Tuning; (c) Incorporate Contextual Knowledge; (d) Co-develop New Model Functions. We aim to help researchers consider and compare co-design across diverse modeling projects systematically and coherently.

Released December 04, 2025 08:33 EST

2025, Environmental Science & Technology (5) 7219-7230

Samuel Adam Miller, Travis S. Schmidt, Larry B. Barber, Michelle L. Hladik, Dana W. Kolpin, Megan E. Shoda, Sarah M. Stackpoole

Imidacloprid, a neonicotinoid insecticide, is used for agricultural and nonagricultural purposes and is toxic to nontarget organisms at low concentrations in aquatic ecosystems. A total of 12,547 water samples were collected from 2013 to 2022 from 77 rivers across the United States (U.S.) and were analyzed to evaluate detections and temporal trends in imidacloprid concentrations. Imidacloprid was detected in 44% of all samples, and the mean concentration, adjusted for nondetect samples, of 24.9 ng/L (median = 11.9 ng/L) was more than twice the chronic benchmark for freshwater invertebrates (10 ng/L). This potential hazard to aquatic life was persistent, with 44% of the sites having a median concentration exceeding the chronic benchmark. Half of the sites (n = 38) had increasing trends, including large river sites along the Mississippi River. The mean increase was 10.6 ng/L over the past decade, while only six sites indicated decreasing trends. The estimated total loading of imidacloprid delivered to the Gulf of America from 2013 to 2022 was 129,489 kg (142.7 U.S. ton). The extensive presence of imidacloprid in U.S. waterways, the high percentage of sites with trends of increasing concentrations, and the prevalence of concentrations exceeding chronic benchmarks suggest widespread persistent risks to ecosystem health.

Released December 04, 2025 07:52 EST

2025, Journal of Avian Biology (2025)

Emily L. Weiser, Richard Lanctot, Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Lee Tibbitts, José Abad-Gómez, Joaquin Aldabe, Juliana Bose de Almeida, José A. Alves, Guy Anderson, Phil F. Battley, Heinrich Belting, Joël Bêty, Kristin Bianchini, Mary Anne Bishop, Roeland A. Bom, Katharine Bowgen, Glen S. Brown, Stephen C. Brown, Leandro Bugoni, Niall Burton, David R. Bybee, Camilo Carneiro, Gabriel Castresana, Ying-Chi Chan, Chi-Yeung Choi, Katherine Christie, Nigel A. Clark, Jesse R. Conklin, Medardo Cruz-López, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Steve Dodd, David C. Douglas, Luke Eberhart-Hertel, Willow B. English, Harry Ewing, Fernando A. Faria, Samantha E. Franks, Richard A. Fuller, Robert E. Gill Jr., Marie-Andrée Giroux, Cheri L Gratto-Trevor, David Green, Rhys E. Green, Ros Green, Tómas Gunnarsson, Jorge S. Gutiérrez, Autumn-Lynn Harrison, C. Alex Hartman, Chris J. Hassell, Sarah Hoepfner, Jos C. E. W. Hooijmeijer, James Johnson, Oscar W. Johnson, Bart Kempenaers, Marcel Klaassen, Eva Kok, Johannes Krietsch, Clemens Küpper, Andy Kwarteng, Eunbi Kwon, Jean-Francois Lamarre, Christopher Latty, Nicolas Lecomte, A.H. Loonstra, Zhijun Ma, Lucas Mander, Christopher Marlow, Peter P. Marra, Jose A. Masero, Laura Anne McDuffie, Rebecca L McGuire, Johannes Melter, David S. Melville, Verónica Méndez, Tyler Michels, Christy Morrissey, Tong Mu, David Newstead, Gary W. Page, Allison K. Pierce, Theunis Piersma, Márcio Repenning, Brian H. Robinson, Afonso Rocha, Danny I. Rogers, Amy L. Scarpignato, Shiloh Schulte, Emily Scragg, Nathan R. Senner, Paul Smith, Audrey R. Taylor, Rachel C. Taylor, Böðvar Þórisson, Mihai Valcu, Mo A. Verhoeven, Lena Ware, Nils Warnock, Michael Weber, Lucy J. Wright, Michael B. Wunder

Animal-borne trackers are commonly used to study bird movements, including in long-distance migrants such as shorebirds. Selecting a tracker and attachment method can be daunting, and methodological advancements often have been made by trial and error and conveyed by word of mouth. We synthesized tracking outcomes across 2745 dorsally mounted trackers on 37 shorebird species around the world. We evaluated how attachment method, power source, data retrieval method, relative tracker mass, and biological traits affected success, where success was defined as whether or not each tag deployment reached its expected tracking duration (i.e. all aspects succeeded for the intended duration of the study: attachment, tracking, data acquisition, and bird survival). We conducted separate analyses for tag deployments with remote data retrieval (‘remote-upload tag deployments') and those that archived data and had to be recovered (‘archival tag deployments'). Among remote-upload tag deployments, those that were a lighter mass relative to the bird, were beyond their first year of production, transmitted data via satellite, or were attached with a leg-loop harness were most often successful at reaching their expected tracking duration. Archival tag deployments were most successful when applied at breeding areas, or when applied to males in any season. Remote-upload tag deployments with solar power, satellite data retrieval, or leg-loop harnesses continued tracking for longer than those with battery power, other types of data retrieval, or glue attachments. However, the majority of tag deployments failed to reach their expected tracking duration (71% of remote-upload, 83% of archival), which could have been due to tracker failure, attachment failure, or bird mortality. Our findings highlight that many tag deployments may fail to meet the goals of a study if tracking duration is crucial. Using our results, we provide guidelines for selecting a tracker and attachment to improve success at meeting study goals.

Released December 04, 2025 07:44 EST

2025, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (675)

O. Beyssac, E. Clave, O. Forni, A. Udry, A.C. Pascuzzo, E. Dehouck, P.S.A. Beck, L. Mandon, C. Quantin-Nataf, N. Mangold, G. Lopez-Reyes, C. Royer, O. Gasnault, Travis S.J. Gabriel, L.C. Kah, S. Schroder, J.R. Johnson, T. Bertrand, B. Chide, T. Fouchet, J.I. Simon, F. Montmessin, A. Fau, S. Maurice, R.C. Wiens, A. Cousin

Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet, we do not have any direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock to confirm this assumption. NASA’s Perseverance rover found olivine-rich boulder-sized float rocks on the upper Jezero fan (Mars). These boulders have an ultramafic composition and their mineralogy is dominantly composed of Fo_73±3 olivine with high-Mg orthopyroxene, Cr-rich Ti-Fe oxides and minor plagioclase and high-Ca pyroxene. Microtextural and petrological analysis reveals that these minerals crystallized at equilibrium. In addition, these boulders are different from all the bedrocks analyzed by Perseverance along its traverse which are crustal igneous rocks and sediments. Comparing our data to Martian meteorites and available Mars bulk silicate models (BSM), we discuss that these boulders could represent primitive melts and/or lower crustal material, and we specifically hypothesize that they could be mantle peridotites. We propose that these putative mantle rocks could have been excavated by the succession of impacts from the shallow mantle or lower crust in the Isidis region where Jezero crater is located. These olivine-rich boulders could thereby constitute the first direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock.

Released December 03, 2025 15:00 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5087

Dominick J. Antolino, Gerard J. Gonthier, Georgina M. Sanchez

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and Wake County Environmental Services began a collaborative study to evaluate groundwater resources and long-term groundwater availability in the county’s fractured-rock groundwater system. Wake County, in central North Carolina, is experiencing rapid population growth, associated land development, and changing water use. Hydrogeologic data including groundwater levels, aquifer testing, borehole fracture flow measurements, water-quality samples, and groundwater age-dating tracers were collected, along with findings from previous investigations, to help inform a conceptual model of the flow system used to develop a modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW) for simulating historical and future groundwater conditions from 2000 to 2070.

Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity ranges were estimated from 17 slug tests and 21 borehole-flow measurements. Groundwater-quality analytical results from 19 sampling sites indicate that oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions varied within the regolith and bedrock and that minimal evaporation occurred before recharge entered the groundwater system. Age dating revealed mixtures of older and younger water, ranging from the 1940s to the 1990s—indicating variable flow pathways of recharge within permeable bedrock fracture zones.

To simplify the complex fractured-rock groundwater system, two layers representing the regolith and the fractured bedrock were used in the MODFLOW model. Model calibration included parameter estimation and provided a reasonable fit to observed groundwater levels and estimated stream base flows. The model forecast scenarios incorporated future climate-model data for two emissions scenarios with land cover change projections to simulate potential impacts to future groundwater levels, recharge, and base flows. Recharge and base flow projections were largely within historical ranges, with no apparent long-term trends, but did indicate a slight downward shift in median values—likely, in part, because of differences in spatial resolution of input climate datasets. Seasonal patterns were consistent with historical data, with projections of possible increases in future winter recharge. Model limitations are discussed, and additional monitoring and model refinement needs are highlighted to support decision making for local groundwater management.

Released December 03, 2025 11:50 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3048

Jenny H. Lagesse, Christopher J. Schenk, Jane S. Hearon, Sarah E. Gelman, Thomas M. Finn, Benjamin G. Johnson, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional and continuous resources of 4.7 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Mesaverde Group and Lance Formation in the Southwestern Wyoming Province, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

Released December 03, 2025 10:31 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Jared E. Krebs, Robert J. Sheffer, Daniel J. Dembkowski, Ryan Eastman, Steven R. Holger, Joshua K. Raabe, Daniel A. Isermann

Released December 03, 2025 09:39 EST

2025, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (50)

J Arcuri, Irina Overeem, Marisa Repasch, R. S. Anderson, S. P. Anderson, Joshua C. Koch, Frank Urban

Bank erosion in Arctic rivers helps shape channel geometry, mobilizes carbon from permafrost and influences sediment delivery to the Arctic Ocean. On Alaska's Arctic coastal plain, rivers begin flowing during snowmelt in late spring while extensive river ice persists in channels, such that hydraulics are altered and water is kept cool. The effects of river ice on permafrost bank erosion are poorly understood, primarily due to a dearth of field observations and a lack of river ice in existing models.

To address this knowledge gap, we developed a numerical model to simulate the melt of substrate interstitial ice and bank collapse along individual permafrost river banks. We parameterize the model with field observations from riverbanks in three different channels on the Canning River delta, which are disparately impacted by river ice during snowmelt. We explore the bank erosion produced without river ice in the model and with modern river ice model scenarios that we drive with different stages and water temperature boundary conditions. We also compare predicted erosion rates to observations from satellite imagery to validate this approach.

In the model, banks are idealized as vertical profiles that rise 1–2 m above the river bed and are comprised of silt- to sand-sized sediment with dense roots in the active layer. Underneath, we generalize bank ice content underneath the active layer to represent ice-rich permafrost on the river corridor boundaries. The model predicts that these ice-rich river banks can erode by 2–6 m/yr. Scenarios without ice underpredict erosion in the distributary channels. Scenarios with varying river ice for different deltaic channels produce erosion rates similar to observations.

Our results suggest that the prolonged melt of thick river ice in a delta nonlinearly impacts permafrost bank erosion by blocking river discharge to certain branches, heightening stage across the distributary network and locally limiting river water warming. Given expected changes in air temperature and hydrology, future estimates of Arctic river bank erosion could be improved by considering river ice.

Released December 02, 2025 10:03 EST

2025, Preprint

Salme Ellen Cook, Liv M. Herdman

Coastal flooding and the associated damages due to storms are increasing with sea level rise around the world, with regional variability in the severity of impacts., Researchers and resource managers need to better understand and predict the future shifts in coastal flooding due to these processes to plan for resilient and sustainable communities. Here we present an analysis of long-term historical records of water levels, tides, and modeled present-day wave climatologies, to characterize the present-day inundation extent in Long Island Sound and Long Island, NY. To understand the potential future changes in inundation extent, we provide a similar analysis of future climate projections of non-tidal residuals (storm surge) for the year 2050 and compare these projections with our present-day results. We examine both the magnitude of relatively frequent events with a 0.99 annual exceedance probability to more extreme events with a 0.01 annual exceedance probability (or the 1 in 100-year event). This range of events is relevant for local managers to understand the spatial variability in coastal inundation, in addition to planning for larger more catastrophic events.

Released December 02, 2025 09:59 EST

2025, Geoscientific Model Development (18) 9319-9348

Ian Robert Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina Passeri, Sara Zeigler

Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time steps. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA. Simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework's utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Released December 02, 2025 09:35 EST

2026, Environmental Management (76)

Stephanie Castellano, Mysha Clarke, Laura D’Acunto, Stephanie Romanach, Stephanie Cadaval

Although coastal ecosystems are impacted by climate change and sea-level rise, many ecological and hydrological models do not yet incorporate sea-level rise projections in their modeling outputs. Therefore, this research examined the various challenges that may prevent sea-level rise from being effectively incorporated in modeling and decision-support tools. We conducted semi-structured interviews with twenty-six professionals involved in Florida’s Everglades restoration. We applied the Diffusions of Innovations Theory to better understand factors that can impact practitioners’ adoption of newly designed decision-support tools that examine sea-level rise in the freshwater Everglades. The Diffusions of Innovations Theory provided insights into practitioners’ perceptions of these tools. We found that these practitioners have a strong interest in using dynamic decision-support tools to plan for sea-level rise impacts on Everglades restoration, particularly when they receive information at appropriate geographic and temporal scales and are given hands-on tools and training. However, challenges that prevent developing these tools include outdated data, limited organizational capacity and funding, limited use of long-term indicators, uncertainty about climate change impacts on local ecosystems, and lack of integration between hydrological and ecological models. Our research also highlights that greater availability of different types of tools can help to meet the needs of the scientific and non-scientific audiences involved in Everglades restoration.

Released December 02, 2025 08:49 EST

2025, Fisheries

James M. Long, Richard A. Snow

Daily ring counts in young-of-the-year fishes are important for estimating important vital rates, such as growth, mortality, and timing of hatch. To accurately estimate some of these rates, the timing of the first daily ring must be estimated accurately. Variation in the timing of the first daily ring can be attributed to many factors, including biology of the species and experience of laboratory personnel. The amount of variation and the degree of differences, however, have not been quantified, hindering the utility of daily ring information to provide accurate estimates of spawning and hatching times. We conducted a review of studies for freshwater fishes in the continental United States to quantify variation in daily ring validation studies as it relates to timing of the first ring. We found 40 studies representing 12 orders, 15 families, and 35 species. Most studies investigated rings in the sagittae, although the lapilli and asterisci were also used for a few species. Variation in the timing of the first ring formation was evident, but not consistent among otolith types or groups of fishes. The first daily ring in sagittae varied from 31 d before hatch to 150 d after hatch. First daily ring formation in lapilli was consistent within families but formed before hatch in some families of fish and after hatch in other families. The first daily ring in asterisci were near universally formed after hatch, with the exception of one species of sturgeon (family Acipenseridae). Only three of the nine species where replicate studies existed were found to exhibit consistent first ring formation timing. Such findings suggest that differences among laboratories and personnel may play a larger role than differences among species or populations when inconsistent first ring formation timing results occur. For most species, error surrounding differences in timing formation is about 1 week, except for Salmoniformes, where error was up to a 150-d difference. Incorporating species biology along with uncertainty in temporal estimates based on otolith chronology would aid interpretation of results in field situations.

Released December 02, 2025 08:46 EST

2025, Book chapter, Applied spatiotemporal data analytics and machine learning

E. D. Attanasi, Timothy Coburn, Philip A. Freeman

Marko Maucec, Jeffrey M. Yarus, Timothy C. Coburn, Michael Pyrcz, editor(s)

Over the last 30 years, a substantial literature has evolved on the use of machine learning (ML) to assess, predict, and improve the efficiency of coalbed methane (CBM) recovery. In the United States, the production of CBM declined as shale gas production matured, but CBM continues to be an important energy resource in other parts of the world. ML applications that have the potential to improve CBM reservoir management and production forecasts, and to increase exploration and operational efficiency, are still of significant interest. The integration of geostatistical techniques into the CBM ML applications has been largely absent but represents an opportunity for improvement. The literature demonstrates the widespread interest in, and applicability of, ML algorithms applied to CBM problems, and that they continue to result in improvements in predictive performance. However, (1) much of the research is more academic than operational, (2) many results are based on simulations, or small or proprietary datasets, (3) ML performance information can be inconsistent and sometimes entirely omitted, (4) most methodologies are unique to the specific CBM situation and likely not generalizable, (5) no standard data repositories are available to directly compare the performance of competing algorithms, and (6) the spatial component is often omitted. Finally, relatively new ML protocols involving causality analysis and reinforced learning, as well as hybrid workflows combining both supervised and unsupervised learning, are anticipated to dominate the future investigations. Integration of geostatistical and geospatial analysis with ML should enhance performance.

Released December 01, 2025 14:45 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1051

Kendra L. Russell, William J. Andrews, Amy R. McHugh

Executive Summary 

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States entered June 7, 1954 (New Jersey v. New York, 347 U.S. 995), established the position of Delaware River Master within the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, the Decree authorizes the diversion of water from the Delaware River Basin and requires that compensating releases from certain reservoirs owned by New York City be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. The Decree stipulates that the River Master provide reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually. This report is the 65th annual report of the River Master of the Delaware River. The report covers the 2018 River Master report year, from December 1, 2017, to November 30, 2018.

During the report year, precipitation in the upper Delaware River Basin was 60.39 inches or 136 percent of the long-term average. On December 1, 2017, combined useable storage in the New York City reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin was 193.230 billion gallons or 71.3 percent of the combined useable storage capacity of 270.837 billion gallons. The reservoirs had a usable capacity of 99.5 percent on May 31, 2018. Combined storage remained high (above 80 percent combined capacity) and did not decline below 80 percent of combined capacity through November 30, 2018. River Master operations during the year were conducted as stipulated by the Decree and the Flexible Flow Management Program.

Diversions from the Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey fully complied with the Decree. Reservoir releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the flow objective for the Delaware River at Montague, New Jersey, on 42 days during the report year. Interim Excess Release Quantity banks and conservation releases, designed to relieve thermal stress and protect the fishery and aquatic habitat in the tailwaters of the reservoirs, were also made during the report year.

Released December 01, 2025 11:06 EST

2025, Society and Natural Resources

Roger Faust, Lauren A. Bernstein, David C. Fulton, Kelly Applegate, Austin Ayres, Pam May, Austin Vig, Adam C. Landon, Sarah Ruffing, Madeline Struck, Colin Yoder, Marc D. Schwabenlander, Tiffany M. Wolf

Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a fatal and contagious neurological disease of cervid populations across North America. Collaborative efforts between government agencies, researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders are necessary to minimize CWD prevalence, spread, and impacts on animal and human health and well-being. However, critical information related to CWD epidemiology, management, and animal and human health risks was not effectively reaching Tribal Nations and their members. To understand these gaps and specific information needs and ensure meaningful participation in CWD management and control efforts, university researchers and Tribal members partnered to conduct semi-structured interviews that focused on deer hunting and the perceived impacts of CWD on Tribal communities. Interviews provided insights into information preferences, knowledge gaps, and perspectives on CWD, revealing a strong sense of responsibility toward deer and the environment. From this collaborative approach, we can create culturally tailored educational resources that address CWD concerns and align with Tribal values.

Released December 01, 2025 10:37 EST

2025, Nature Microbiology (10) 3059-3068

Julia Kelliher, Chloe Mirzayi, Sarah R. Bordenstein, Aaron Oliver, Christina A. Kellogg, Eneida L. Hatcher, Maureen Berg, Petr Baldrian, Mashael Aljumaah, Cassandra Maria Miller, Christopher Mungall, Vlastimil Novak, Alexis Palucki, Ethan Smith, Nazifa Tabassum, Gregory Bonito, J. Rodney Brister, Patrick S. Chain, Jose Pablo Dundore-Arias, Joanne B. Emerson, Vanessa Moreira Fernandes, Roberto Flores, Antonio Gonzalez, Zoe A. Hansen, Scott A. Jackson, Ahmed M. Moustafa, Trent R. Northen, Nonia Pariente, Jennifer Pett-Ridge, Sydne Record, Linta Reji, Anna-Louise Reysenbach, Virginia I. Rich, Lorna Richardson, Simon Roux, Lynn M. Schriml, Reed S. Shabman, Maria A. Sierra, Matthew B. Sullivan, Punithavathi Sundaramurthy, Katherine M. Thibault, Luke R. Thompson, Scott W. Tighe, Ethell Vereen, STREAMS Consortium, Emiley A. Eloe-Fadrosh

The interdisciplinary nature of microbiome research, coupled with the generation of complex multi-omics data, makes knowledge sharing challenging. The Strengthening the Organization and Reporting of Microbiome Studies (STORMS) guidelines provide a checklist for the reporting of study information, experimental design and analytical methods within a scientific manuscript on human microbiome research. Here, in this Consensus Statement, we present the standards for technical reporting in environmental and host-associated microbiome studies (STREAMS) guidelines. The guidelines expand on STORMS and include 67 items to support the reporting and review of environmental (for example, terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric and engineered), synthetic and non-human host-associated microbiome studies in a standardized and machine-actionable manner. Based on input from 248 researchers spanning 28 countries, we provide detailed guidance, including comparisons with STORMS, and case studies that demonstrate the usage of the STREAMS guidelines. STREAMS, like STORMS, will be a living community resource updated by the Consortium with consensus-building input of the broader community.

Released December 01, 2025 10:13 EST

2025, Frontiers in Earth Science (13)

Michelle R. Plampin, Steven T. Anderson, Stefan Finsterle, Ashton M. Wiens

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO₂ storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO₂ injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO₂ storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO₂ storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO₂ injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO₂ or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO₂-water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO₂ injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO₂ in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO₂ in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO₂ injectivities and enhancement of CO₂ injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO₂ injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO₂ into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO₂ injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO₂ into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO₂ storage resource.

Released December 01, 2025 09:37 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5097

Kirsten E. Faulkner, Bryant C. Jurgens

More than 2 million Californians rely on groundwater from domestic wells for drinking-water supply. This report summarizes a 2022 California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP) water-quality survey of 33 domestic and small-system drinking-water supply wells in the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin and the surrounding areas, where more than 20,000 residents are estimated to utilize privately owned domestic wells. The study area includes the Llagas subbasin in the north, the North San Benito subbasin in the south, and the surrounding uplands. The study was focused on groundwater resources used for domestic drinking-water supply, which are mostly drawn from shallower parts of aquifer systems rather than those of groundwater resources used for public drinking-water supply in the same area. This assessment characterized the quality of ambient groundwater in the aquifer before filtration or treatment, rather than the quality of drinking water delivered to the tap.

To provide context, the measured concentrations of constituents in groundwater were compared to Federal and California State regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A grid-based method was used to estimate the areal proportions of groundwater resources used for domestic drinking wells that have water-quality constituents present at high concentrations (above the benchmark), moderate concentrations (between one-half of the benchmark and the benchmark for inorganic constituents, or between one-tenth of the benchmark and the benchmark for organic constituents), and low concentrations (less than one-half or one-tenth the benchmark for inorganic and organic constituents, respectively). This method provides statistically representative results at the study-area scale and permits comparisons to other GAMA-PBP study areas. In the study area, inorganic constituents in groundwater were greater than regulatory benchmarks (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] or State of California maximum contaminant levels [MCLs]) for public drinking-water quality in 24 percent of domestic groundwater resources. The inorganic constituents present at concentrations greater than MCLs for drinking water were nitrate (as nitrogen), barium, chromium, and selenium. Total dissolved solids (TDS) or manganese were present at concentrations greater than the secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) that the State of California uses as aesthetic-based benchmarks in 48 percent of domestic groundwater resources. No volatile organic compounds or pesticide constituents were present at concentrations greater than regulatory benchmarks. Total coliform bacteria and enterococci were detected in 4 percent of domestic groundwater resources. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were detected in 19 percent of domestic groundwater resources, and 10 percent had concentrations greater than recently enacted (April 2024) EPA MCLs.

Physical and chemical factors from natural and anthropogenic sources that could affect the groundwater quality were evaluated using results from statistical testing of associations between constituent concentrations and potential explanatory variables. In this study, relevant physical factors include well construction characteristics, groundwater age, site proximity to groundwater recharge or discharge zones, and potential sources of contamination. Relevant chemical factors include the initial chemistry of the recharge water, the mineralogy of the aquifer sediments, and the subsequent shifts in chemistry as biologic and geologic reactions alter groundwater in the subsurface.

Nitrate concentrations were correlated to agricultural land use, distance from the boundary of the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin, and the proportion of modern (post-1950s) water captured by the well. Denitrification under anoxic redox conditions can mitigate some nitrate derived from fertilizer application. Total dissolved solids primarily were derived from water-rock interactions with soils and aquifer materials in the study area, but there were high concentrations where agricultural practices contributed additional TDS. Mineralogy of aquifer sediments and rocks also affect barium, selenium, boron, and chromium concentrations in the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin. PFAS were positively correlated with urban land use and the proportion of modern water captured by the well.

Released December 01, 2025 08:41 EST

2025, Annals of Applied Statistics (19) 2957-2980

Jacob Oram, Katharine M. Banner, Christian Stratton, Andrew Hoegh, Kathryn Irvine

Classification of massive datasets by machine learning (ML) algorithms is promising for many scientific domains, especially wildlife monitoring programs that rely on passive acoustic surveys for detecting species. However, treating ML-predicted class labels (e.g., species identity) as truth biases inferences of focal parameters within common modeling frameworks. One solution is to model the misclassification process explicitly using human-validated true-class labels for a subset of observations. Validation by experts can present a substantial bottleneck in otherwise efficient workflows that use ML predictions. Bioacoustics practitioners seek guidance on both the quantity and process for selecting ML-labeled data to validate by an expert. We derive an alternative model formulation that jointly models human-validated and ML-predicted class labels with an observed-data likelihood (ODL) and use empirically informed simulations motivated by a real-data application to explore different probability designs for selecting class labels for validation. Simulation results suggest that with smaller validation sets the ODL formulation increases computational speed and reduces estimation error compared to a default MCMC data augmentation routine. Our methodology is transferable to applications that treat predictions from classification algorithms as the response variable of interest.

Released December 01, 2025 07:18 EST

2025, Data Report 1217

Brian G. Prochazka, Peter S. Coates, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O’Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Adrian P. Monroe, Steve E. Hanser, Lief A. Wiechman, Michael P. Chenaille

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefiting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated a 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide in Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively.

Released November 30, 2025 10:04 EST

2025, Wildlife Society Bulletin (49)

Duane R. Diefenbach, Frances E. Buderman, Mary Jo Casalena, Michael Dye, Robert Gates, Laura Christine Gigliotti, C. Robert Long, Katherine Martin, Michael Muthersbaugh, Michael L. Peters, James Sloan, Joshua Stiller, Mark Wiley

Wildlife agencies collect data on productivity (e.g., proportion of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) to monitor population status and trends. However, sampling protocols to collect productivity data rely on opportunistic observations reported by wildlife agency personnel and the public and have changed over time and differed among agencies. A protocol to standardize data collection was adopted by most state wildlife agencies in 2019, but long-term historical datasets exist that cannot be analyzed readily to make inferences about spatial and temporal patterns in wild turkey productivity. We developed statistical models to allow comparisons and model trends in productivity among and within states even though data collection protocols changed over time and differed among states. We found greater spatial variation in the proportion of hens with poults than the number of poults per brood, which may reflect how environmental factors influence wild turkey productivity. Our models can also provide inferences about productivity when data are limited or temporally discontinuous for some spatial units. Additionally, we found that temporal and spatial variation in data collection, even under the new protocol, can affect inferences about trends in productivity. The statistical models we developed address the uncontrolled nature of when and where data are collected and offer the ability to investigate long-term patterns of productivity in relation to factors such as changing climate or habitat conditions.

Released November 28, 2025 09:05 EST

2025, Scientific Data (12)

Brady W. Allred, Sarah E. McCord, Timothy J. Assal, Brandon T. Bestelmeyer, Chad S. Boyd, Alexander C. Brooks, Samantha M. Cady, Michael C. Duniway, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Shane A. Green, Georgia R. Harrison, Eric R. Jensen, Emily J. Kachergis, Anna C. Knight, Chloe M. Mattilio, Brian A. Mealor, David E. Naugle, Dylan O’Leary, Peter J. Olsoy, Erika S. Peirce, Jason R. Reinhardt, Robert K. Shriver, Joseph T. Smith, Jason D. Tack, Ashley M. Tanner, Evan P. Tanner, Dirac Twidwell, Nicholas P. Webb, Scott L. Morford

Rangelands are extensive ecosystems, providing important ecosystem services while undergoing continuous change. As a result, improved monitoring technologies can help better characterize vegetation change. Satellite remote sensing has proven effective in this regard, tracking vegetation dynamics at broad and fine scales. We leveraged the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellites to estimate fractional cover and canopy gap across rangelands of the western United States. We produced annual, 10 m spatial resolution estimates of fractional cover and canopy gap size class for years 2018 to 2024. Fractional cover estimates include that of common plant functional types (annual forb and grass, bareground, littler, perennial forb and grass, shrub, tree) and select genera (including invasive annual grass species, pinyon-juniper species, and sagebrush species); canopy gap size classes include gap sizes 25 to 50, 51 to 100, 101 to 200, and greater than 200 cm. We make these data available as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs, organized as 75 × 75 km tiles covering the 17 western states of the United States.

Released November 28, 2025 08:34 EST

2025, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (50)

Jong Cho, J. William Lund, Grady Ball, Jeb E. Brown, Allen C. Gellis, Laura N. Gurley, Scott Douglas Hamshaw, Jeffrey Stephen Kwang, Andrew Roy Laws, Gregory Noe, Gretchen P. Oelsner, Francis Parchaso, Cara L. Peterman-Phipps, Katherine Skalak, Nicholas Alan Sutfin

Sources, transport mechanisms and pathways of fine sediment in river systems are dependent on a multitude of climatic, geomorphic and anthropogenic factors, resulting in geomorphic equifinality, in which it is difficult to parse how different landscape processes affect sediment transport across different spatiotemporal scales. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide a conceptual model to consider how differing spatial distributions and hydrologic timing of sediment sources, both upland and in-channel, can result in equifinal sediment transport outcomes, and 2) utilize analytical methods with widely available environmental datasets to infer sediment processes from stream gaging data. Hysteretic patterns of observed storm events were classified based on their direction and timing of peak sediment concentration, relative to streamflow, using records from 35 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages in the period between 2007 and 2023 within two different physiographic regions: the Mid-Atlantic Delaware River Basin (DRB) and the Midwestern Illinois River Basin (IRB). The DRB contains mixed forest, urban, suburban and agricultural watersheds over diverse topography, and the IRB is primarily an intensively managed agricultural watershed on flat terrain. We use principal component analysis and linear discriminant analysis to infer regional hydrologic relations with turbidity dynamics, and to identify the primary hydrologic and land surface characteristics most effective at distinguishing between hysteretic classes in each region. These analyses reveal underlying regional relations in storm event hydrodynamics and landscape characteristics that contribute to varying patterns in sediment dynamics. Incorporating these sediment dynamic relations with spatial distributions and hydrologic timing of sediment sources could help to improve process understanding and predictive capability of fine sediment transport in watersheds.

Released November 27, 2025 09:18 EST

2025, Oecologia (208)

Anthony M. Pagano, Karyn D. Rode, Kerry L. Nicholson, William B. Leacock, Craig A. Stricker, Charles T. Robbins

Omnivores often face tradeoffs between selecting for spatially dispersed energy-dense vertebrate prey versus densely distributed herbivorous resources that have limited energetic value per unit intake. Arctic grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are large omnivores within a resource-limited ecosystem that are known to exhibit smaller body masses and occur at lower densities than grizzly bears in other regions of North America. We evaluated the energy balance of Arctic grizzly bears during a portion of the fall hyperphagic period in two ecologically differing regions on Alaska’s northern Arctic coast by monitoring mass change, food intake, activity, and energy expenditure of 12 individuals over 17–22 days. Bears in coastal areas were more carnivorous than bears in the foothills that were predominantly herbivorous and frugivorous. Carnivory was associated with greater movement, body fat, and energy expenditure and two of four carnivorous bears lost mass. Overall, the mean body fat of the bears in this study was 34% lower than other grizzly bear populations in North America in the fall. Furthermore, the bears in this study exhibited relatively small changes in body mass (x̄= 3%, range =−2 to 11%) that were 60% lower than other grizzly bear populations which typically gain substantial mass in the fall in preparation for denning. Our results, while representing a snapshot from a small number of bears during the fall hyperphagic period, are consistent with previous studies and indicate limited availability of energy-dense food resources during this time for grizzly bears in this region of the Arctic.

Released November 26, 2025 12:05 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1054

Andrea C. O'Neill, Sharon F. Batiste, Daniel D. Buscombe, Joseph Burgess, Kara S. Doran, Ann E. Gibbs, Rachel E. Henderson, Julia L. Heslin, Catherine N. Janda, Mark A. Lundine, Joseph F. Terrano, Jonathan A. Warrick, Kathryn M. Weber

Satellite-derived shorelines (SDS) have the potential to help researchers answer critical coastal science questions and support work to predict coastal change by filling in the spatial and temporal gaps present in current field-based and remote-sensing data collection methods. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comparison analyses of traditionally sourced shorelines and SDS in diverse coastal landscapes to determine how SDS could be used in ongoing and future work across varied coastal environments and provided some initial findings that could be used for implementation. Using CoastSeg, a browser-based program for SDS detection and mapping, SDS for the period 1984–2023 for multiple locations across the United States were compared to shoreline positions from traditionally sourced shoreline data. In this report, the authors present these comparisons alongside lessons learned and challenges encountered when building SDS workflows in different coastal locations. Results show that individual SDS have larger uncertainty and yet produced similar linear trends to sparser, traditionally sourced shoreline data; because SDS methods provide orders of magnitude more data than traditional shoreline-detection methods, they can be used to evaluate shoreline behaviors. Refining average scalar slopes used in tidal corrections did not result in substantial decreases in uncertainty. Using lessons from this work to outline needs for regional implementation, initial setup time would be considerable, being on the order of weeks. However, once complete, shoreline detections and analyses are fast (on the order of minutes to hours) and achievable using a desktop computer.

Released November 26, 2025 11:01 EST

2025, Advances in Water Resources (206)

Gábor Fleit, Marian Muste, Sándor Baranya, Dongsu Kim, Amanda Whaling, Tate McAlpin, Hojun You

This paper introduces the use of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements as input for the Acoustic Mapping Velocimetry (AMV) method, a technique for characterizing the dynamics of riverine bedforms. The performance of this new approach, ADCP-AMV, is compared with input from a multibeam echosounder through a field study conducted on the Mississippi River (USA). A virtual ADCP tool has been created to support the ADCP-AMV measurements with optimal data density predictions. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time ADCP measurements have been used in conjunction with the AMV dune-tracking method. Subsequently, the paper discusses the coupling of ADCP-AMV measurements with ancillary data extracted from the ADCP. These ancillary data are processed using previously developed protocols to characterize hydrodynamics and the suspended sediment distribution in the water column. This paper emphasizes the capability of ADCPs to characterize open-channel river hydromorphodynamic parameters with high spatiotemporal resolution. Recommendations to accurately and efficiently acquire these multi-variable measurements and derived datasets are discussed.

Released November 26, 2025 10:21 EST

2025, Freshwater Biology (70)

Freya Elizabeth Rowland, Michael J. Vanni, Nicole M. Hayes, Clifford E. Kraft

1. Although nitrogen and phosphorus deficiency of algal blooms have been the focus of substantial attention, organic nutrients can limit algal growth in aquatic systems. Growing evidence indicates thiamine (vitamin B₁) can influence the community of primary producers in marine systems, but comparatively little is known about the effect of thiamine on freshwater algal productivity.
2. We conducted 106 nutrient deficiency experiments with water from 39 Ohio lakes of varying trophic status during the growing seasons (April–October) of 2008–2009. Specifically, we tested the response of phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll a, chl-a) relative to controls to added nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), thiamine (Th), or combinations of N + P and N + P + Th. Next, we compared the chl-a growth response of treatment/control to published thresholds based on frequentist approaches and compared the conclusions with Bayesian model results that focused on probability of a response.
3. Although N + P addition was consistently associated with the largest chl-a response, we found evidence of a thiamine influence on phytoplankton growth in some experiments. The Bayesian approach suggested thiamine may become more limiting as the growing season progresses. By late in the growing season, there was an 85% probability of a positive algal growth response to thiamine addition.
4. Understanding the role of thiamine or other overlooked nutrients is not likely to alter the prevailing understanding of nutrient deficiency in freshwater ecosystems. However, we present evidence that freshwater phytoplankton may experience thiamine deficiency and suggest limnologists consider thiamine when exploring resource deficiencies.

Released November 26, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, Economic Geology

Andreas Audétat, Jia Chang, Sean Patrick Gaynor

The depth level at which porphyry Cu–forming magmas fractionated and exsolved mineralizing fluids is actively debated. In the classic model, extensive magma fractionation occurs in large, upper crustal magma chambers, and concomitant fluid exsolution leads to forceful expulsion of residual magmas in the form of porphyry dikes, stocks, and breccia pipes, which subsequently serve as pathways for the mineralizing fluids. In contrast, some recent studies highlighting the role of deep crustal magma fractionation in the production of fertile magmas essentially deny the existence of upper crustal magma chambers at the time of mineralization. To address this, we conducted a detailed thermobarometric investigation of 13 intermediate to felsic, porphyritic intrusive rocks related to porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization at Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro, New Mexico, United States, representing two premineralization magmas (61–60 Ma), seven synmineralization magmas (60–58 Ma), and four late- to postmineralization magmas (58–57 Ma).

For each sample, the pressure of last magma crystallization before final magma ascent to the current exposure level was reconstructed based on Al-in-hornblende barometry of small hornblende inclusions trapped within quartz phenocrysts and through titanium-in-quartz (TitaniQ) thermobarometry of the host quartz phenocrysts themselves. Since quartz is one of the last crystallizing magmatic minerals, and no significant phenocryst growth could have occurred in small dikes and stocks after final magma emplacement, quartz phenocrysts and their contained hornblende inclusions record the depth of last magma crystallization before final magma ascent. When present, hornblende phenocrysts and hornblende inclusions within other major phenocrysts were also analyzed. Both quartz and hornblende barometers return consistent average pressures of 3.2 ± 0.4 kbar for the entire suite of pre- to postmineralization magmas, corresponding to depths of 11 to 14 km. The synmineralization magmas return even more consistent average pressures of 3.1 ± 0.2 kbar, corresponding to a depth of 12 ± 1 km.

The volume of the mineralizing porphyry dikes and stocks at the emplacement level is far too small to have provided all the fluids and metals required to form the observed ore deposits. Therefore, the majority of the ore-forming fluids must have originated from the magmas that crystallized at 12 ± 1 km depth. The ore deposits, conversely, formed at ~5-km paleodepth. This implies that most of the mineralizing fluids traveled an average vertical distance of ~7 km from their magmatic source to the eventual site of ore precipitation. The relatively unaltered nature and low veining degree of deeper parts of mineralized porphyry dikes and stocks suggest that the fluid transport through these intrusive bodies occurred mostly at near-solidus conditions by means of fluid percolation along grain boundaries.

In summary, our results suggest that (1) a large, upper crustal pluton exists ~7 km beneath the Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro deposits; (2) abundant phenocryst crystallization occurred at this depth level; and (3) this pluton was the main source for the exsolution of ore-forming fluids. However, the investigated rocks have elevated whole-rock Sr/Y ratios, indicating magma fractionation at deep crustal levels. As a result, our preferred model is a combination of the two end-member models introduced above, with most magma fractionation having occurred in the deep crust and with residual, intermediate to felsic melts having ascended and accumulated at 11 to 14 km paleodepth, where they continued to crystallize with comparatively little crystal-liquid separation, before some of these magmas ascended further to shallow levels and quenched to porphyries.

Released November 26, 2025 08:39 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

J. Wesley Neal, Jacob A. Moreland, Corey Garland Dunn, Peter J. Allen

Objective 

Several species of New World cichlids have recently invaded reservoirs in Puerto Rico, potentially jeopardizing established recreationally important, albeit nonnative, sport fish populations. Interactions between invasive species and important sport fish must be understood so that they can be mitigated when feasible. This study compared monthly prey consumption between three invasive cichlids (Jaguar Guapote Parachromis managuensis and two species of Amphilophus) and two principal sport fishes (Largemouth Bass Micropterus nigricans and Butterfly Peacock Bass Cichla ocellaris) to understand potential for competitive interactions.

Methods

Stomach contents were evaluated quarterly using gastric lavage for sport fish and destructive sampling techniques for invasive species. Prey proportion by mass was calculated for each individual, and mean prey proportion by mass was calculated for each species by reservoir, month, and overall. Multivariate hypothesis testing using permutational multivariate analysis of variance and visualization of potential diet overlap were performed via analysis of variance and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), respectively.

Results

Fish were the most common prey type, and Threadfin Shad Dorosoma petenense was the most prevalent prey species. Although there were significant differences in diets of invasive cichlids and sport fishes (P < 0.01), there also was considerable overlap based on low percentages of variation in diets explained by species (3–19% < pseudo-R²) and NMDS visualizations. Diets varied little across reservoirs and months (≤4% pseudo-R²; high overlap in NMDS space).

Conclusion

These data indicate that the diet of Jaguar Guapote and Amphilophus spp. may overlap with that of sport fish populations in Puerto Rico. Jaguar Guapote relied on Threadfin Shad more than other species, with Amphilophus spp. relying more on detritus and noncrayfish invertebrates. Thus, if prey are limited, Jaguar Guapote may have a more direct effect via competition for prey. Finally, we report evidence of Largemouth Bass recruitment failure and local extirpations that support a hypothesis that invasive cichlids are having negative effects on at least Largemouth Bass, although the mechanism is unclear.

Released November 26, 2025 08:25 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5099

Brock J.W. Kamrath, Courtney N. Lauderback, Jennifer C. Murphy

This report describes a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and Missouri Department of Natural Resources that evaluated temporal changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the Lower Grand River hydrologic unit. The study focused on trends since 2010, when the basin was designated as a priority drainage basin of the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative (MRBI). At three local drainage basins within the Lower Grand hydrological unit (MRBI sites), stream nutrient trends were evaluated using flow-adjusted (FA) TN and TP concentrations for water years 2011 through 2023. FATN concentration trends were not statistically significant for any MRBI site. One site (site 2) showed a statistically significant increasing trend in FATP concentration, indicating a possible increase in phosphorus sources in parts of the basin. Overall, streamflow variability appeared to be the dominant factor affecting nutrient concentrations at MRBI sites. At five regional drainage basins, including the Grand River and nearby rivers with data from 1994 through 2023 (long-term sites), annual flow-normalized (FN) TN and TP concentrations were evaluated for trends before (water years 2000–10) and during (water years 2010–23) the MRBI. For water years 2010 through 2023, annual FNTN and FNTP concentrations decreased in the Grand River, as well as in the Nodaway and Chariton Rivers, which were not targeted by the MRBI. The Grand River (site 9) reversed from increasing to decreasing FNTP concentrations after 2010, with a 26-percent reduction. Annual FNTN and FNTP concentrations also decreased at the Missouri River sites. While nutrient reductions in the Grand River may reflect the effects of implemented conservation practices, similar trends in nearby, nontargeted rivers and the absence of strong decreasing trends at MRBI sites suggest that broader regional factors, instead of or in addition to MRBI efforts, may have contributed to nutrient reductions in the Grand River.

Released November 25, 2025 15:50 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5062

Kristina Gutchess, Natasha Scavotto, Amanda Dondero, Joshua Woda, Neil Terry, Kirk Smith, John Williams

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, evaluated the effects of different deicing salt application rates on surface water, groundwater, and highway runoff quality near State highways in northern New York. Three reaches of State highways were tested with different deicing treatments between October 2019 and November 2022: a salt-sand mixture (Treatment A), a salt mixture applied at a lower rate (Treatment B), and a control mixture consistent with typical deicing salt amounts and application rates. Data on pavement conditions and the quality of surface water, highway runoff, and groundwater were collected. Surface electromagnetic data were also collected. Surface-water and groundwater quality downgradient from the State highways were compared with water quality at upgradient locations. The percentage of snow or ice coverage was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the salt applications.

This report provides an overview of the transport of deicing salt. The Treatment B watershed had deicing mixture applied more frequently than other highway reaches, which caused it to have the highest annual total chloride application. Despite differences in chloride application, flow-weighted mean chloride concentrations in highway runoff were comparable across treatments. Chloride concentrations were elevated in surface water and groundwater downgradient from highways relative to chloride concentrations upgradient from highways. A chloride mass balance, calculated for one treatment watershed, indicated that groundwater affected by legacy deicing practices may be contributing additional chloride to surface water. Spatial patterns from electromagnetic surveys show a shallow saline plume alongside the highway in that area.

Differences in winter severity and pavement-surface conditions drove deicing salt applications in the treatment areas. This study found that several factors affect chloride loads in the watersheds, including variable winter conditions, adaptive snow and ice management, legacy management practices, and area-specific aquifer and groundwater conditions.

Released November 25, 2025 09:50 EST

2025, Molecular Ecology

Jesse B. Parker, Sean Hoban, Laura Thompson, Scott E. Schlarbaum

The central–marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts reduced genetic diversity and increased differentiation in range-edge populations due to ecological marginality and limited gene flow. Deviations from this pattern, however, can result from historical demographic processes, variation in reproductive strategies or interspecific hybridization. The genus Quercus, known for hybridization and long-distance pollination, offers an excellent model to examine the spatial patterns of genetic diversity, structure and introgression across species distributions. Here, we investigate these dynamics in Quercus bicolor Willd., a widespread eastern North American oak. Using RADseq, we genotyped 142 individuals from 12 sites at the fragmented trailing range edge and nine sites from the range core. To detect introgression, we incorporated reference data from six sympatric white oak species. We reveal extensive introgression, particularly from Q. lyrata Walt., in nearly all southern edge populations, but none in core populations despite sympatry with closely related congeners. Southern populations also showed increased genetic structure and differentiation, but not reduced diversity or increased inbreeding, even when only examining non-admixed individuals. Regression analyses reveal relationships between introgressed ancestry and heterozygosity, inbreeding and differentiation, indicating that introgression may buffer range-edge populations against genetic erosion by introducing novel alleles. Hindcast, current and forecast ecological niche models demonstrate temporally changing degrees of overlap between the geographic range of Q. lyrata and Q. bicolor and suggest higher hybridization potential in the future. These findings offer mixed support for the CMH while underscoring the evolutionary relevance of introgression in shaping genetic landscapes at range margins with significant implications for conservation.

Released November 25, 2025 09:30 EST

2025, Diversity and Distributions (31)

Jesse L De La Cruz, Sabrina M. Deeley, Elizabeth Ann Hunter, W. Mark Ford

Aim

White-nose syndrome has caused severe declines in eastern North American cave bats, leading to the federal listing of the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) as endangered in the United States and Canada. This has heightened the importance of long-term monitoring to inform species status assessments. We employed a combination of long-term repeated and single-season acoustic survey data to assess the regional presence, spatial distribution, occupancy, and detection probability of northern long-eared bats.

Location

New England, United States.

Methods

We analysed acoustic data from 2357 detector sites, aggregated by year, using Bayesian single-species occupancy models. We investigated the influence of habitat characteristics, climatic variables, and year (2015–2022) on occupancy and the effects of weather conditions and survey month (May to August) on detection probability. Spatial random effects were included to address residual spatial autocorrelation, with a 1-km resolution chosen based on significant positive autocorrelation observed in a non-spatial model.

Results

Occupancy was highest on steep, forested hillsides with minimal anthropogenic development, higher in warmer regions, particularly along coastlines and on offshore islands, and declined across survey years. Including a 1-km spatial random effect reduced residual autocorrelation and suggests northern long-eared bats utilise resources at small to medium landscape scales. Detection probability was highest earlier in the maternity season, but declined when monthly precipitation or temperature exceeded average conditions.

Conclusions

Conservation efforts that focus on steep, forested hillsides in warmer regions with low anthropogenic development could be beneficial. Our analysis supports the use of spatial random effects at a 1-km² scale, highlighting the importance of survey designs that capture ecological variation at species-specific resolutions. Additionally, early-season acoustic surveys conducted during favourable weather conditions may improve monitoring effectiveness. Acoustic sampling and spatial occupancy modelling offer powerful tools for monitoring remnant populations of northern long-eared bats and guiding conservation practices.

Released November 25, 2025 07:58 EST

2025, ES&T Water

Joe Heffron, Joel P. Stokdyk, Aaron D. Firnstahl, Rachel M. Cook, Claire E. Hruby, Mark A. Borchardt

When sampling for waterborne microbes, researchers may need to diverge from recommended sample volumes due to logistical constraints, novel targets, or challenging matrices, with little guidance about the potential impact on results. In field studies, we measured bacteria, viruses, and protozoa (15 quantitative polymerase chain reaction assays) in paired large- and small-volume samples to evaluate method performance and relevant factors. Concordance between methods was low. Large-volume ultrafiltration yielded more detections than small-volume sampling, especially for pathogens in groundwater. Greater microbial concentrations were associated with more frequent detections in small-volume samples and greater concordance between paired samples. Large-volume samples appeared to be more susceptible to diminished sensitivity from complex sample matrices. In laboratory studies, recovery of microbes was poorer for large- than small-volume methods, although large-volume methods more reliably detected low-concentration targets. Large-volume samples were less stable than small-volume samples during storage. Overall, large-volume sampling was superior for detecting pathogens but may underestimate concentrations; small-volume sampling was more prone to false negatives but was adequate when concentrations were relatively high, like we observed for microbial source tracking in surface waters.

Released November 24, 2025 13:01 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5088

Scott A. Olson

This report provides estimates of flood discharge at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont with drainage areas between 0.47 and 851 square miles. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 156 streamgages. Flood-frequency analyses were completed using data through the 2023 water year. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations are drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction used to estimate flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 37.1, 38.2, 41.6, 43.8, 46.0, 49.1, and 53.2 percent, respectively.

Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed using the Expected Moments Algorithm. Techniques used to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations and to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment are both described. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is an internet-based application that provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Released November 24, 2025 09:39 EST

2025, Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit Technical Report HCSU-119

Seth Judge, Christopher C Warren, Amanda K Navine, Richard J. Camp, Lisa H. Crampton, Hanna L Mounce, John Vetter, Lauren K. Smith, Patrick J. Hart, Mona Renee Bellinger, Katherine Maria McClure

The Birds, Not Mosquitoes Monitoring and Support Science Working Group detailed methods for monitoring the population response of Hawaiian forest birds during implementation of the Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) on the islands of Maui and Kauaʻi. The group prioritized methods for measuring the influence of mosquito suppression on populations within IIT treatment and control areas and identified focal species for IIT efficacy monitoring in birds. Three primary metrics were established to assess the impact of IIT on vulnerable species: population demography, density, and geographic range. Each metric can be evaluated using multiple methods. This report reviews those methods, with emphasis on approaches supported by pre-IIT baseline data and compatible with a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design for evaluating population responses over time. Focal avian species were selected based on population size estimates, fecundity, and disease susceptibility. We identified ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei), ʻiʻiwi (Drepanis coccinea), Maui ʻalauahio (Paroreomyza montana), Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens), Kauaʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), and ʻanianiau (Magumma parva) as focal species for monitoring population level response to disease suppression.

Populations of kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), ʻakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), akekeʻe (Loxops caeruleirostris), and the ʻiʻiwi population on Kauaʻi may be too small (e.g., <100 individuals) to effectively monitor, and it is unlikely that sufficient data can be collected from these birds to show IIT efficacy in a relatively short time frame (i.e., 5–10 years). Despite the logistical challenges to IIT implementation, there is potential to maintain disease-free status in individual populations of birds. Indeed, the continued existence of these critically endangered species in the wild within or near IIT treatment areas could be considered an accomplishment of IIT, given the current predictions for their extinction in the wild within 5–10 years. Demographic monitoring methods, including territory mapping, nest monitoring, mist-netting, and mark-recapture studies, provide direct evidence of survivorship and reproductive output.

When combined with disease surveillance, these approaches could provide the most robust evidence of increased survivorship and productivity resulting from avian malaria suppression via IIT. However, demographic studies require several years of monitoring to achieve statistically robust BACI comparisons of survivorship and are more difficult to implement relative to other approaches. Given that these field efforts are labor-intensive and heavily reliant on personnel availability and funding, demographic monitoring could be conducted when adequate resources permit.

On both Maui and Kauaʻi, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was identified as a priority method for monitoring the range, occupancy, and relative abundance of focal species. Autonomous recording units (ARUs) can record bird vocalizations in remote areas for several months.

Innovative machine learning techniques permit rapid and semi-autonomous identification of most endemic honeycreepers on each island, maximizing sampling efficiencies and minimizing data processing costs. We predict mosquito suppression could support expansion of focal species into areas where disease transmission is currently excluding these species and expect acoustic monitoring data of focal species to reflect these spatial patterns. Additionally, the relative occupancy and call densities can be monitored temporally and spatially to assess the efficacy of IIT for supporting positive growth in vulnerable bird species. It is not yet clear if PAM is more effective than other methods, such as distance sampling, for detecting trends in the densities of rare species. However, the increased detections resulting from the larger sample size per observation point using ARUs will likely improve accuracy in detecting changes in species’ ranges. Collection of during and after treatment data within the BACI design could help to provide critical information to track avian population response, recovery, and potential range expansion related to IIT efforts. Point-transect distance sampling (point-counts) was prioritized as a method for monitoring population densities of focal species. Extensive historical sampling across focal species’ ranges provides a robust baseline for detecting change. These counts provide updated population densities and can be used to assess the distribution of focal species within IIT treatment areas.

However, detecting subtle population changes with traditional distance sampling requires intensive spatial and temporal effort and may be less effective for rare species. To improve resolution, density surface modeling can integrate multiple data sources (e.g., point-counts, PAM, spot-mapping, and resightings) to estimate species-specific densities at finer spatial scales, including within and outside IIT treatment areas. This integrated modeling approach allows for detailed comparisons and may reveal early signs of recovery, including recolonization of formerly occupied sites. A coordinated monitoring strategy can allow managers to evaluate the success of mosquito suppression as a conservation intervention and support adaptive management in the face of emerging challenges.

Released November 24, 2025 08:27 EST

2025, Oikos

Brendan K Hobart, Daniel A. Grear, Megan Winzeler, Travis Mcdevitt-Galles, Timothy M Korpita, Erin L. Muths, Valerie J McKenzie

Temperature is a primary driver of heterogeneity in host–pathogen dynamics and understanding how patch-scale temperature affects landscape-scale patterns of pathogen infection is key to effective monitoring and management. In field studies, both temperature variability and mean temperature are often related to infection of ectothermic animals by fungal pathogens, and although these factors vary spatiotemporally, their contributions to infection outcomes are rarely decomposed into spatial and temporal components. We studied how patch-scale thermal conditions (mean and variability) affect infection of eastern newts Notophthalmus viridescens by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), with a special focus on disentangling spatial versus temporal contributions of thermal conditions to infection outcomes. We measured in situtemperature and Bd infection across 20 ponds in two years in southeastern Wisconsin, USA to 1) understand thermal mediation of infection and 2) quantify whether seasonal and/or among-site variation in thermal conditions drive heterogeneity in host–pathogen interactions. In our system, thermal mean and variability covaried tightly, necessitating the creation of a single index to capture both components. We found that 1) this index of thermal mean and variability was strongly and nonlinearly related to Bd infection and 2) differences among patches in thermal conditions drove this relationship, highlighting that variation in patch-level conditions can drive heterogenous host–pathogen outcomes across landscapes. Our research collectively reveals insights about the importance of local, patch-level conditions for mediating disease risk at broader scales.

Released November 24, 2025 07:58 EST

2025, Restoration Ecology

Emily N. Fromenthal, Camille L. Stagg, Jena A. Moon, Taylor Abshier, Omar Alawneh, Jack A. Cadigan, Daniel A. Gallegos, Brian D. Harris, Nia R. Hurst, Navid H. Jafari, Todd Merendino, Matthew R. Nelson, Michael J. Osland, Philip Pauling, Michael Rezsutek, Colt R. Sanspree, Rachel Katherine Villani

Introduction

Coastal marshes are highly valuable ecosystems facing threats from rising sea levels and intensifying storm events. To elevate marsh surfaces and prevent loss of ecosystem services, the beneficial use of dredged material (BUDM) is increasingly being implemented across the United States.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to aid decision-makers and restoration practitioners by identifying elevation thresholds that control the optimal function of Spartina patens-dominated marshes along the Texas Coast.

Methods

This study was conducted in the coastal marshes of the J.D. Murphree Wildlife Management Area (Texas). We collected elevation and vegetation cover data along ecological transition zones in marshes nourished with BUDM to identify elevation thresholds that define zones of optimal plant survivorship and growth.

Results

We identified lower (−0.05 m mean high water, MHW) and upper (0.26 m MHW) elevation thresholds that defined transitions to open water and unvegetated bare ground, respectively. Elevation targets (T) and elevation target zones, which defined areas with the greatest vegetation cover, were determined for S. patens (T: 0.11 m, target zone: −0.06 to 0.26 m MHW), S. alterniflora (T: 0.00 m, target zone: −0.12 to 0.10 m MHW), and Distichlis spicata (T: 0.17 m, target zone: 0.07–0.25 m MHW).

Conclusions

Our analyses provide species-specific elevation targets for coastal marsh restoration through BUDM, which can improve restoration outcomes for coastal wetlands.

Released November 23, 2025 08:22 EST

2025, Ecology and Evolution (15)

Gavin G. Cotterill, Douglas A. Keinath, Tabitha A. Graves

Occupancy models have become increasingly popular for species monitoring and assessment, in part, because detection/non-detection data are readily obtained using a variety of methods. Multispecies occupancy models (MSOMs) can yield more accurate parameter estimates than single-species models (SSOMs) with less data through their hierarchical structure, making MSOMs an attractive option when species are hard to detect or when data collection is constrained, leading to sparse datasets. Such constraints may arise from limited sampling resources, but also occur in rare species monitoring or where preliminary results are desired to inform adaptive management. Further, experimental habitat treatments often impose spatial constraints on sampling based on the scale of their implementation. Whether a MSOM outperforms SSOMs depends on the volume of data, characteristics of the ecological community, research goals of a study and how these factors align with modeling assumptions. We performed a simulation study of hypothetical pollinator communities under varying sampling intensities for scenarios in which experimental habitat treatments produced different community-level effects. We fit occupancy models to simulated datasets and assessed model performance. At lower sampling intensities (< 20 spatial replicates and < 4 temporal replicates), MSOM community-level treatment effect estimates were biased. Even at twice this sampling intensity, SSOMs yielded more accurate species-specific effect estimates in treatment effect scenarios with high variance. In some cases, MSOMs can pull species in the tails of distributions too far toward the community mean effect, which risks incorrect conclusions concerning whether treatments help or harm individual species. When quantifying species-specific effects is the main objective, particularly for rarely observed species, SSOMs are more robust to outliers across a range of community response scenarios. Researchers can use this information to inform study design, guide simulation studies and decide whether the higher precision of MSOMs outweighs risks of improperly estimated effects for some species.

Released November 22, 2025 08:43 EST

2025, International Journal of Photoenergy (2025)

K. Sydny Fujita, Ben Hoen, Dana Robson, Joesph Rand, Zachary H. Ancona, James Diffendorfer, Louisa Kramer, Christopher Garrity, Jianyu Gu, Jordan Macknick

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

Released November 22, 2025 08:02 EST

2025, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Ralph W. Tingley III, Darryl W. Hondorp, Benjamin A. Turschak, Steven A. Pothoven, Amanda Susanne Ackiss, Jory Jonas, William W. Fetzer, Benjamin Scott Leonhardt, Andrew Edgar Honsey, Jeff Elliott, Lindsie Ann Egedy, Cory Brant, Lynn Benes, Kendra Kozlauskos, Renee Renauer-Bova, Ann J. Ropp

Characterizing fish movements is required for understanding habitat use, energy flow, and trophic structure and can inform fisheries management. Drowned river mouth (DRM) lakes are productive inland habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin used by migratory fishes. Despite recognition of their ecological connections to the Great Lakes, the value of DRM lakes as seasonal habitats is not well understood for many fishes. One such species, cisco Coregonus artedi, has recently expanded in Lake Michigan from near extirpation to higher relative abundances in the northeastern portion of the lake. Cisco are recreationally harvested in some DRM lakes during winter, but little is known about cisco movement patterns and ecology. In winter 2022 and 2023, we collected cisco from three DRM lakes along the eastern shores of Lake Michigan (Lake Charlevoix, Portage Lake, Muskegon Lake) to characterize genetics, morphometrics, and diets. We also implanted telemetry tags in 20 cisco collected in Lake Charlevoix to examine movement patterns and determine DRM lake residency (i.e., seasonal vs. year-round). We found no consistent genetic or morphometric differentiation across DRM lakes, suggesting that recolonization began from a single stock. Fish were the only diet item found in cisco guts collected during winter months. Movement patterns from Lake Charlevoix indicated strong spawning site fidelity to Grand Traverse Bay as well as non-spawning site fidelity. However, given the presence of cisco in southern DRM lakes and some site-specific differences in morphometrics, managers could benefit from further research to determine whether spawning occurs in southern Lake Michigan.

Released November 21, 2025 11:55 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3052

Christopher J. Schenk, Marilyn E. Tennyson, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 67 million barrels of oil and 56 billion cubic feet of gas in the Santa Maria Basin Province of California.  

Released November 21, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, Seismological Research Letters

Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall, Grace Alexandra Parker, Evan Tyler Hirakawa

he Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults in the San Francisco Bay region of California have a high probability of producing a large earthquake in the next decades. Although these faults creep, the creep is insufficient to keep up with their relatively rapid slip rates on their deepest sections, so they have been storing tectonic strain since their last large earthquakes, with the Hayward’s and Rodgers Creek’s more than 150 yr ago. We do not know what the next large Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek earthquakes will look like or how strongly they will shake the San Francisco Bay region. Harris et al. (2021) used the 3D dynamic (spontaneous) rupture method to simulate large earthquakes on these creeping faults. In this article, we examine the resulting simulated long‐period (T > 1 s) ground shaking from 0 to 50 km distance, for earthquakes nucleating on the Hayward fault and earthquakes nucleating on the Rodgers Creek fault. We compare these simulated long‐period ground motions with the Boore et al. (2014) well‐established empirically based ground‐motion model suitable for the slowest material velocity in our 3D velocity structure. We find that the simulated long‐period ground motions from the creeping‐fault earthquake scenarios produce a reasonable agreement with the empirical expectations if frictional cohesion is included only where it is appropriate.

Released November 20, 2025 12:37 EST

2025, JGR Earth Surface (130)

Rose Elizabeth Palermo, Jennifer L. Miselis, Daniel J. Ciarletta, Emily A Wei

Barrier island resilience to climate impacts depends on sediment redistribution between the subaqueous shoreface and subaerial barrier during sea-level rise and storms. However, autogenic interactions between the upper and lower shoreface and their influence on the subaerial barrier are poorly characterized. Here, we explore the influences of various shoreface components on barrier morphology using a model of barrier and shoreface evolution under sea-level rise, the Articulated Barrier Shoreface (ABSF) Model. This reduced-complexity model divides the shoreface into upper and lower shoreface panels that respond independently to sea-level rise and deviations from the equilibrium slope. We couple the ABSF with the Lorenzo-Trueba & Ashton, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jf002941 model (LTA), a barrier island evolution model driven by overwash and sea-level rise. Through this coupled framework, we examine the influences of upper and lower shoreface slopes, their respective depths, and sensitivity to wave climate on long-term barrier evolution. Results show that the relative depths of the upper and lower shoreface toes influence barrier response to rising seas, alongside overwash flux and closure depth. Notably, the lower shoreface response to sea-level change lags that of the upper shoreface over decades, diminishing the resilience of the barrier over centennial timescales by slowing the overall barrier response. In fact, the ABSF model predicts barriers will drown faster and more than predicted with a linear shoreface. Results highlight the shoreface as an important sediment reservoir for barrier islands and that differences in upper and lower shoreface responses can reduce barrier resilience to sea-level rise due to limited lower shoreface sediment accessibility.

Released November 20, 2025 11:30 EST

2025, Professional Paper 1890-I

Carmen Jaimes-Viera, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Ana Lillian Martin Del Pozzo, Aurelie Germa, Chuck Connor, Michael H. Ort, Paul Layer, Jeff Benowitz

An analysis of 1,375 volcanoes in the Michoacán-Guanajuato (1,148 volcanoes in a 26,200 square-kilometer area) and Sierra Chichinautzin (227 volcanoes in a 3,500 square-kilometer area) volcanic fields in central Mexico identified patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of past eruptions. A cluster agglomerative hierarchical method and kernel analysis confirmed that the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field comprises four volcanic fields (Valle de Santiago, Uruapan, Apatzingán, and Pátzcuaro volcanic fields) controlled by different fault systems, indicating that it is not a single volcanic field but rather a group of volcanic fields (a “superfield”), each of which has distinct characteristics.

In the Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field, well-constrained isotopic ages were used to build a model of how the spatial distribution of the eruptions has changed over time. Two new 40Ar/39Ar ages from a locally recognized volcanic feature near the town of El Cantil, herein called El Cantil volcano (1,537±17 kilo-annum [ka]) and the volcanic feature at Cerro el Elefante (herein called El Elefante dome) (1,485±92 ka) belong to the oldest volcanic group identified in the Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field, confirming the timing of the beginning of monogenetic volcanism in the region. Based on the volcanic groups identified in the Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field, the youngest volcanism (less than 35 ka) is found only in the central-western sector of the field. Principal component analysis determined the directional trends of feeder dikes only for vents <10 ka in the Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field. Possible magma migration paths through the crust were identified using seismic data from both volcanic fields using an earthquake catalog from 1973 to 2023, which includes 9,016 earthquakes in the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field and 841 in the Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field. The spatial distribution of the hypocenters does not highlight any trend that could be associated with superficial movement of magma in the Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field. In the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field, however, eight seismic swarms since 1997 have been detected. These swarms are interpreted to result from ascending magma. Strengthening monitoring systems and reinforcing mitigation measures to address volcanic hazards and risk are important means of preparing for future eruptions in both regions. Analysis such as those herein provide insights as to where an eruption might occur and may help mitigate volcanic hazards.

Released November 20, 2025 10:30 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3049

Laszlo P. Keszthelyi, Joshua A. Coyan, Lori M. Pigue, Kristen A. Bennett, Travis S.J. Gabriel

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a scarce but vital resource for our modern economies and lifestyles. Since the late 1990s, China has supplied the vast majority of the world’s refined REEs. Increasing global demand has broadened the search for REE deposits to unconventional places, including the Moon. Although most lunar rocks have very low REE concentrations, Apollo samples showed that one type of lunar rock containing potassium (K), REEs, and phosphorus (P)—known by the acronym KREEP—has high concentrations of REEs. Data from orbiting satellites have identified locations where substantial deposits of KREEP are likely. The viability of mining these deposits depends on the evolution of REE economics, the development of the Earth-Moon infrastructure, and the findings from future lunar mineral exploration missions.

Released November 20, 2025 10:03 EST

2025, Oikos

A. Donatelli, Mark Haroldson, Justin G. Clapp, P. Ciucci, Frank T. van Manen

Plasticity of diel activity rhythms may be a key element for adaptations of wildlife populations to changing environmental conditions. In the last decades, grizzly bears Ursus arctos in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) have experienced notable environmental fluctuations, including changes in availability of food sources and severe droughts. Although substantial research has been conducted on grizzly bear diets, space use, and demographic parameters, studies on factors that may influence their diel activity patterns are lacking. We investigated diel activity of grizzly bears in the GYE as a function of anthropogenic landscape modification, maximum daily ambient temperature, drought severity, and bear density. Specifically, we used accelerometry readings of 169 bears (39 females, 130 males) from 2009 to 2022 to compute three complementary activity measures, hourly intensity of activity, daily active minutes, and active bout length, each used as a response variable within a Bayesian modeling framework. Grizzly bears generally exhibited bimodal diel activity, with crepuscular peaks and slight variations across seasons. Females with young (i.e. cubs or yearlings) were an exception, with more pronounced diurnal activity patterns, possibly as a strategy to avoid infanticide by dominant males. Landscape modification and maximum ambient temperature were the factors most strongly associated with activity patterns of grizzly bears, with greater nocturnality observed in lone females and males as these factors increased. Females with young were comparatively less affected. The GYE is changing because of increasing land development, human recreation pressures, and effects of climate change. Given their greater diurnal activity compared with other cohorts, female grizzly bears with dependent offspring may be more constrained in their ability to modify activity patterns. Our findings add to a growing body of research emphasizing the importance of the temporal dimension of wildlife behavior as a critical factor in assessing species adaptability and vulnerability in a changing world.

Released November 20, 2025 09:20 EST

2025, AGU Advances (6)

James Burkhardt Biemiller, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Lydia M. Staisch, Thomas Ulrich, Audrey Dunham, Erin A. Wirth, Janet Watt, Madeleine C. Lucas, Anna Ledeczi

Great subduction earthquakes (M_w ≥ 8.0) can generate devastating tsunamis by rapidly displacing the seafloor and overlying water column. These potentially tsunamigenic seafloor offsets result from coseismic fault slip and deformation beneath or within the accretionary wedge. The mechanics of these shallow rupture phenomena and their dependence on subduction zone properties remain unresolved, partly due to the sparsity of offshore observations of shallow megathrust earthquake deformation. Here, we analyze how offshore structure influences shallow rupture mechanics and slip partitioning using 3D dynamic earthquake simulations of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) megathrust with and without variably dipping seaward- or landward-vergent splay faults in the wedge that sole into the megathrust. Resulting tradeoffs between splay and megathrust slip reveal structural controls on rupture partitioning, with greater splay slip leading to less shallow megathrust slip updip. Gently dipping and seaward-vergent splays host more slip than those with steeper, landward-vergent splays. To isolate the underlying mechanisms, we compare models with Andersonian and plunging principal stresses. Results suggest distinct static and dynamic processes control the dip- and vergence-dependence of splay rupture: static (mis)alignment relative to far-field tectonic loading favors slip on more optimally oriented, shallowly dipping splay faults. In contrast, dynamic stress interactions of an updip-propagating megathrust rupture front with the free surface and potential branch faults favor forward branching onto seaward-vergent splays and inhibit backward branching onto landward-vergent splays. Resulting seafloor displacements suggest splay fault structure may influence coseismic tsunami source processes, highlighting the importance of dynamically viable rupture scenarios in subduction hazard assessments.

Released November 20, 2025 09:11 EST

2025, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (62)

Eleanor E. Fahrney, David C. Mays, Connor P. Newman

Released November 20, 2025 08:55 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1049

Faith A. Fitzpatrick, Shelby P. Sterner, James D. Blount, Jana S. Stewart

Urban stream rehabilitation plans can benefit from knowledge of the landscape setting and vegetative communities that were adjacent to streams prior to urbanization. Downstream to upstream connections of these characteristics can be relevant for native migratory fish species that have a range of preferred spawning habitats. Based on a need for more quantitative data on these potential connections, the U.S. Geological Survey assembled geomorphic characteristics, surficial geology, and pre-Euro-American settlement vegetation for 333 kilometers of stream segments in the Kinnickinnic River and Menomonee River subbasins of the Milwaukee River, Wisconsin. Channel slopes ranged from less than 0.3 percent to greater than 2 percent, covering at least two channel morphology and bedform types spanning low-energy irregular and pool-riffle complexes. Postglacial surficial geology ranged from coarse-grained outwash sand and gravel to lacustrine silt and clay, allowing for a range of stream substrate sizes. Presettlement riparian vegetation was mainly forest, including forested uplands, forested lowlands, and to a lesser extent, conifer-dominated wetlands in headwaters. This resulting framework of geomorphic habitat response units can be used for habitat rehabilitation projects for migratory native fish in other urban Great Lakes tributaries.

Released November 20, 2025 08:10 EST

2025, Electronics (14)

Nusrat Zahan, Sidike Paheding, Ashraf Saleem, Timothy C. Havens, Peter C. Esselman

In recent years, Single-Image Super-Resolution (SISR) has gained significant attention in the geoscience and remote sensing community for its potential to improve the resolution of low-quality underwater imagery. This paper introduces MIMAR-Net (Multiscale Inception-based Manhattan Attention Residual Network), a new deep learning architecture designed to increase the spatial resolution of input color images. MIMAR-Net integrates a multiscale inception module, cascaded residue learning, and advanced attention mechanisms, such as the MaSA layer, to capture both local and global contextual information effectively. By utilizing multiscale processing and advanced attention strategies, MIMAR-Net allows us to handle the complexities of underwater environments with precision and robustness. We evaluate the model on three popular underwater image datasets, namely UFO-120, USR-248, and EUVP, and perform extensive comparisons against state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results demonstrate that MIMAR-Net consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving superior qualitative and quantitative improvements in image quality, making it a reliable solution for underwater image enhancement in various challenging scenarios.

Released November 19, 2025 11:56 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5017

Libby M. Wildermuth, Jeffrey R. Kennedy, Jacob L. Conrad

Managed aquifer recharge is a widespread practice for storing water in the subsurface as groundwater. At a managed aquifer recharge facility in southern Arizona, groundwater-level and repeat microgravity data were collected to monitor aquifer response. These data were used to inform parameter identification for an unsaturated-zone flow model used to simulate the recharge process. The facility, the Southeast Houghton Artificial Recharge Project (SHARP), consists of 3 surface basins (about 27,600 square meters [6.8 acres] total surface area) where recycled water is distributed in recharge cycles lasting several months, with dry periods in between. During the study period, December 2020–December 2022, Tucson Water (the City of Tucson’s water utility) reported 6.56×10⁶ cubic meters of water (5,320 acre-feet) recharged.

Monitoring included groundwater-level observations at 3 monitoring wells and repeat microgravity measurements at as many as 22 locations (some stations were destroyed between surveys). Six gravity surveys were carried out using absolute- and relative-gravity meters. Large gravity increases, more than 250 microgals, were observed during the first repeat survey, 3.5 months after the start of recharge, but only in the immediate vicinity of the recharge basins. Data show that water moved downward to the water table, and storage changes in the unsaturated zone away from the facility were likely minimal. Gravity decreased at stations more than 1 kilometer from the facility, consistent with regional groundwater-level changes. Groundwater-level increases in wells adjacent to the recharge basins began 2 months after the second repeat gravity survey, and 5.5 months after recharge began.

Unsaturated-zone flow modeling was carried out using software that simulates water movement and parameter estimation. Model calibration was carried out by minimizing an objective function calculated from the differences between simulated and observed groundwater levels, and between simulated and observed repeat microgravity data. Including repeat microgravity data in the objective function reduced the uncertainty in estimated parameter values for saturated hydraulic conductivity and saturated water content. Modeling indicated that the unsaturated zone between the recharge basins and the water table does not become saturated even after 685 days of simulated infiltration. This gradual wetting may account for increasing infiltration rates over time, as hydraulic conductivity increases with increasing water content. Unsaturated-zone water content decreased rapidly between recharge cycles. Model-simulated groundwater mounding extended about 1 kilometer from the center of SHARP after the 685-day period following the onset of recharge.

Released November 19, 2025 08:15 EST

2025, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (29) 6445-6460

Phillip J. Goodling, Jennifer H. Fair, Amrita Gupta, Jeffrey D. Walker, Todd Dubreuil, Michael J. Hayden, Benjamin H. Letcher

Despite their ubiquity and importance as freshwater habitat, small headwater streams are under-monitored by existing stream gage networks. To address this gap, we describe a low-cost, non-contact, and low-effort method that enables organizations to monitor relative streamflow dynamics in small headwater streams. The method uses a camera to capture repeat images of the stream from a fixed position. A person then annotates pairs of images, in each case indicating which image has more apparent streamflow or indicating equal flow if no difference is discernible. A deep learning modeling framework called streamflow rank estimation (SRE) is then trained on the annotated image pairs and applied to rank all images from highest to lowest apparent streamflow. From this result a relative hydrograph can be derived. We found that our modeled relative hydrograph dynamics matched the observed hydrograph dynamics well for 11 cameras at 8 streamflow sites in western Massachusetts. Higher performance was observed during the annotation period (median Kendall's Tau rank correlation of 0.75, with a range of 0.6–0.83) than after it (median Kendall's Tau of 0.59, with range 0.34–0.74). We found that annotation performance was generally consistent across the 11 camera sites and 2 individual annotators and was positively correlated with streamflow variability at a site. A scaling simulation determined that model performance improvements were limited after 1000 annotation pairs. Our model's estimates of relative flow, while not equivalent to absolute flow, may still be useful for many applications, such as ecological modeling and calculating event-based hydrological statistics (e.g., the number of out-of-bank floods). We anticipate that this method will be a valuable tool to extend existing stream monitoring networks and provide new insights on dynamic headwater systems.

Released November 18, 2025 12:22 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Bradley J. Butterfield, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Jason B. Dunham, Jeremiah D. Groom, Clint C. Muhlfeld, Christian E. Torgersen, John B. Bradford

Landscapes encompass both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that experience the same climate but may respond to climate in divergent ways. For example, the time lag between seasonal dry-down of terrestrial soil moisture and decline in streamflow has important implications for species and ecosystem processes across the aquatic–terrestrial interface. How these lags between aquatic and terrestrial hydrology vary with climate and spatial location within watersheds remains largely unexplored. Here, we examine seasonal patterns of aquatic–terrestrial dry-down across seven watersheds in the northwestern USA, spanning a wide range of aridity. We compared daily streamflow data from USGS gages at watershed outlets with simulated daily soil moisture (1979–2020) from multiple locations within each watershed. In all watersheds, annual dry cycles progressed sequentially through the following features: evapotranspiration, precipitation, shallow soil moisture, deep soil moisture, and finally streamflow. Seasonal streamflow minima lagged behind soil moisture minima for shorter durations in more arid watersheds and drier years. Within watersheds, lag times varied spatially due to interactions between elevation and aridity, with short lags in low-elevation soils near streams in arid watersheds and longer lags in less arid watersheds. Collectively, these results indicate shorter lags between seasonal aquatic and terrestrial dry periods in drier watersheds and years, and show that these tighter linkages are spatially aggregated in drier watersheds. The co-occurrence of seasonally dry conditions in both aquatic and terrestrial systems under increasing aridification is likely to intensify stressors on ecosystems and services. Recognizing these patterns may be critical for predicting ecosystem vulnerabilities and informing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of seasonally dry conditions.

Released November 18, 2025 12:06 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5055

Moussa Guira, Jonathan P. Traylor, Andrew T. Leaf, Alec R. Weisser

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a high-resolution inset groundwater-flow model in the Mississippi Delta as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration coordinated by the Mississippi Alluvial Plain project to provide a tool that stakeholders can use to support water-resource management decisions. Groundwater withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have been vital to support agricultural production in the region, but substantial groundwater-level declines near Shellmound, Mississippi, have caused concerns for long-term sustainability of the aquifer. To better understand the subsurface and try to mitigate the long-term groundwater-level declines, stakeholders have undertaken actions including a Groundwater Transfer and Injection Pilot (GTIP) project using a riverbank filtration-based managed aquifer recharge approach. The pilot project consisted of extracting groundwater near the Tallahatchie River and reinjecting it into the aquifer 3 kilometers west where water levels have substantially declined. A high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey was also completed to collect electrical resistivity data to support the GTIP project and the development of the groundwater model.

The inset groundwater-flow model was developed to (1) integrate the AEM data into the optimal layering configuration of the MRVA aquifer that the available observation data can support through calibration, and (2) assess the potential effect of the GTIP project on the groundwater levels. The AEM data were processed into three different layering configurations leading to the development of model A (18 layers), model B (16 layers), and model C (8 layers), all at a 100- x 100-meter cell spatial resolution using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model 6 code with Newton-Raphson formulation. The model development process integrated recent advances in modeling, such as the incorporation of AEM data, the use of outputs from the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, and the Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model, and was facilitated by robust automation using the open-source python packages Modflow-setup and SFRmaker. Using Parameter Estimation ++ Iterative Ensemble Smoother, the three numerical groundwater-flow models (models A, B, and C) were calibrated against a set of observations, which included aquifer groundwater levels, streamflows, stream stage, and aquifer transmissivity. Results indicate that the detailed representation of MRVA aquifer layers in model A produced the best calibrated model by history matching, and the integration of data representing surficial connectivity played a key role in improving groundwater recharge and enhancing the ability of the model to match groundwater levels in the cone of depression. A forecast model simulated the managed aquifer recharge approach, and the results indicated that, given average irrigation and recharge conditions (2010–15), the GTIP project has the potential to induce groundwater-level increases of as much as 3 meters around the injection site, but a sustained increase would require repetition in subsequent years of water transfer at 2022 rates or above.

Released November 18, 2025 09:42 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3013

Seth D. Burgess

Introduction 

Western California is home to a variety of volcanic rocks. The locations, ages, and chemical compositions of these volcanic rocks help tell part of the fascinating story of California’s plate tectonic evolution over the past 40 million years. These volcanic rocks are a product of multiple tectonic processes, including subduction of divergent and transform plate boundaries beneath continental North America, opening of a slab window, creation and migration of a tectonic triple junction, and the birth and growth of the San Andreas Fault. This fact sheet explains these tectonic processes and discusses their role in shaping the volcanic history of western California over the past 40 million years. By studying the volcanic rock record in western California, geologists are able to piece together how regional volcanism and plate tectonics are linked in space and time. Recognizing this linkage helps scientists to understand possible future volcanism in the region, potential hazards associated with this volcanism, and the impacts these hazards may have on population and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey California Volcano Observatory (CalVO) closely monitors the parts of western California with the greatest potential for volcanism.

Released November 18, 2025 08:55 EST

2025, Journal of Wildlife Diseases (61) 1010-1027

Bryan Daniels, Erik E. Osnas, Megan Boldenow, Robert Gerlach, Christina Ahlstrom, Sarah Coburn, Michael J. Brook, Michael Brubaker, Julian Fischer, David N. Koons, Angela Matz, Marin Murphy, Daniel Rizzolo, Laura Celeste Scott, David R. Sinnett, Jordan M. Thompson, Juliana Lenoch, Mia Kim Torchetti, David E. Stallknecht, Rebecca L. Poulson, Andrew M. Ramey

In 2021–22, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses were introduced by wild birds into North America, leading to geographically widespread disease. In response to HPAI outbreaks throughout late 2021 and early 2022, we recorded observations of sick and dead birds, estimated abundance of carcasses, collected swab and sera samples to detect viruses, and monitored bird nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region of Alaska to document potential effects of disease. Thirty-six reports of sick and dead birds were registered across the region. Nineteen carcasses were opportunistically collected for diagnostic testing, of which 12 were confirmed to be infected with clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI viruses. Carcass abundance estimates from line-distance sampling provided evidence that the most common species of dead birds from the western Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region were Cackling Goose (Branta hutchinsii minima), Glaucous Gull (Larus hyperboreus), and Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Only one paired cloacal and oropharyngeal swab sample from a Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) tested positive for clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus, out of 464 live-captured duck and goose samples. Of 195 sera samples from waterfowl screened for antibodies reactive to influenza A viruses, antibodies were found in 41–98% of samples collected from Emperor Goose (Anser canagicus), Cackling Goose, Black Brant, and Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri). In addition, 15–98% of the same sera samples were reactive to a clade 2.3.4.4b H5 antigen. Fewer Black Brant and Emperor Goose nests were found on long-term study plots during 2022 than in previous years. Collectively, we found that HPAI viruses affected at least seven species of wild birds inhabiting the region during 2022. The full scope of impacts of HPAI at this location during 2022 is unknown, but our data indicate that acute effects to avian population health on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region were likely modest.

Released November 18, 2025 08:45 EST

2026, Conservation Genetics (27)

Perry L. Wood Jr., Donald S. Chandler, Nicholas S. Gladstone, Anna Mitelberg, Julia G. Smith, Kemble White, Jenny Wilson, Amy G. Vandergast

The karst habitats of central Texas, USA, are home to an array of endemic subterranean-obligate (troglobiotic) invertebrates. This includes several species of rove beetles (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae: Pselaphinae). Here we developed a molecular dataset using sequence capture of Ultra-Conserved Elements (UCEs) from the Coleoptera-UCE-1.1 K v1 baits kit. These data were used to assess species relationships and patterns of diversification in this group, specifically among species within the genera Batrisodes Reitter 1882 and Texamaurops Barr and Steeves 1963; with a specific focus on the relationships of the federally listed as endangered B. texanus Chandler 1992 and B.cryptotexanus Chandler and Reddell 2001. Our final datasets consisted of 69 individuals (two genera, Batrisodes [five species] and Texamaurops [one species], from 34 localities), and a molecular dataset of 658,560 aligned base pairs across 672 UCE loci. Concatenated and species-tree phylogenetic analyses resolved all troglobiotic taxa as a monophyletic group. Within the Travis and Williamson County troglobionts, we recovered four well-supported clades that generally follow hypothesized geologic barriers to dispersal formalized as karst fauna regions (KFRs). A northward pattern of diversification was observed among these groups: (A) Texamaurops reddelli Barr and Steeves 1963 (Jollyville Plateau KFR); (B) Batrisodes reyesi Chandler 1997 (West Cedar Park and Post Oak Ridge KFRs); (C) B. reyesi (McNeil-Round Rock KFR); (D) B. cryptotexanus + B. texanus (Georgetown and North Williamson KFRs). The morphologically defined Batrisodes texanus and B. cryptotexanus were not reciprocally monophyletic, nor clustered into two unique groups in clustering analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Rather, we found support for five major subclades and five to seven genetic clusters. These results suggest that diversification and subsequent isolation of clades may have occurred with the progressive availability of karst habitats over time in the North Williamson and Georgetown KFRs resulting from the interactions of faulting, geologic structure, and drainage basin evolution. Comparison with recent U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service cave habitat resiliency assessments indicated that four genetic clusters occur within at least partially resilient habitat, whereas three are confined to caves with low or impaired resiliency. Integrating genetic results presented here along with results of other molecular studies of co-occurring troglobiotic invertebrates supports considering additional geological substructure within the North Williamson KFR in conservation efforts for these rare and unique lineages and systems.

Released November 18, 2025 08:33 EST

2025, Climate of the Past (21) 2263-2281

Jacob T. Anderson, Nicolas E. Young, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Karlee Prince, Caleb K. Walcott-George, Brandon L. Graham, Joanna Charton, Jason P. Briner, Joerg M. Shaefer

The lack of geological constraints on past ice-sheet change in marine-based sectors of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) following the Last Glacial Maximum limits our ability to assess (1) the drivers of ice-sheet change, and (2) the performance of ice-sheet models that are benchmarked against the paleo-record of GrIS change. Here, we provide new in situ ¹⁰Be surface exposure chronologies of ice-sheet margin retreat from the outer Scoresby Sund and Storstrømmen Glacier regions in eastern and northeastern Greenland, respectively. Ice retreated from Rathbone Island, east of Scoresby Sund, by ∼ 14.1 ka, recording some of the earliest documentations of terrestrial deglaciation in Greenland. The mouth of Scoresby Sund deglaciated by ∼ 13.2 ka, and retreated at an average rate of ∼ 43 m yr⁻¹ between 13.2 and 9.7 ka. Storstrømmen Glacier retreated from the outer coast to within ∼ 3 km of the modern ice margin between ∼ 12.7 and 8.6 ka at an average rate of ∼ 28 m yr⁻¹. Retreat then slowed or reached a stillstand as ice retreated ∼ 3 km between ∼ 8.6 ka to the modern ice margin at ∼ 8.0 ka. These retreat rates are consistent with late glacial and Holocene estimates for marine-terminating outlet glaciers across East Greenland, and comparable to modern retreat rates observed at the largest ice streams in northeastern, and northwestern Greenland.

Released November 18, 2025 08:28 EST

2025, Scientific Reports (15)

Shannon L. White, Amanda Higgs, Dewayne Fox

Urban landscapes are often overlooked in conservation planning, allowing human activities to take precedence in ecosystem management. However, even heavily modified environments can support diverse species profiles, but continued expansion of the human footprint could transform these biodiversity hotspots into ecological traps that serve as hidden catalysts for demographic declines. In the backdrop of one of the world’s most urbanized landscapes-New York City, USA—is a federally endangered population of shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum) that has been quietly recovering for several decades despite many demographic threats. Here, we identify a unique behavioral phenotype of shortnose sturgeon that occupies habitats in New York Harbor in late spring and fall, likely using the area to optimize bioenergetic processes. As this study highlights, urbanized environments can be a nexus for cryptic phenotypic diversity which, if overlooked, can disrupt eco-evolutionary processes and contribute to population and species loss.

Released November 17, 2025 12:20 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3042

Alma Lizette Anides Morales, Laura M. Norman, Thomas J. Mack

The Los Planes watershed of Baja California Sur, Mexico, and its underlying aquifer are experiencing groundwater decline owing to low average annual rainfall (28.1 centimeters per year) and rising water demand from population growth and agricultural activities. This decline in water availability can lead to desertification—a process that changes arable land to desert by degrading soil and vegetation—and can pose serious challenges to livelihoods that depend on the land.

To address these issues, a ranch in the Los Planes watershed has installed many natural infrastructures in dryland streams (NIDS) in channels for soil and water conservation. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began working with regional researchers and land managers to investigate the effects of NIDS on natural biological, geochemical, and physical processes and determine the efficacy of NIDS for water augmentation in the Los Planes watershed. The USGS also worked with local academic institutions and nonprofit organizations to create public educational opportunities focused on the area’s hydrogeology. These and other collaborative efforts with the U.S. Water Partnership and Innovaciones Alumbra aim at enhancing water resources in the Baja California Sur region and promoting water security and safeguarding community well-being.

Resume

La cuenca de Los Planes, ubicada en Baja California Sur, México, y su acuífero subyacente, están sufriendo una disminución de las aguas subterráneas debido a la baja precipitación media anual (28.1 centímetros por año) y la alta demanda de agua por parte de una población creciente y la actividad agrícola. Esta disminución de la disponibilidad de agua puede conducir a la desertificación—un proceso que por medio de la degradación del suelo y la vegetación convierte a la tierra cultivable en desierto—representando un serio desafío para los medios de vida de las personas.

Para abordar estos problemas, un rancho en la cuenca de Los Planes ha instalado numerosas obras de Infraestructura Natural en Arroyos de Tierras Áridas (INATS) para conservación del suelo y del agua. En 2022, el Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos (USGS, por sus siglas en inglés) comenzó a trabajar con investigadores regionales y gestores de tierras para estudiar los efectos de INATS en los procesos biológicos, geoquímicos y físicos, y determinar su eficacia en el aumento de los recursos hídricos en la cuenca de Los Planes. El USGS se ha asociado con instituciones académicas y organizaciones locales sin fines de lucro para crear oportunidades educativas públicas centradas en la hidrogeología de la zona. Estos y otros esfuerzos colaborativos con la Asociación del Agua de Estados Unidos (U.S. Water Partnership) e Innovaciones Alumbra, tienen como objetivo mejorar el uso de los recursos hídricos en la región de Baja California Sur, promover la seguridad hídrica y proteger el bienestar de la comunidad.

Released November 17, 2025 12:00 EST

2025, Preprint

Brady W. Allred, Sarah E. McCord, Timothy J. Assal, Brandon T. Bestelmeyer, Chad S. Boyd, Alexander C. Brooks, Samantha M. Cady, Michael C. Duniway, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Shane A. Green, Georgia R. Harrison, Eric R. Jensen, Emily J. Kachergis, Anna C. Knight, Chloe M. Mattilio, Brian A. Mealor, David E. Naugle, Dylan O’Leary, Peter J. Olsoy, Erika S. Peirce, Jason R. Reinhardt, Robert K. Shriver, Joseph T. Smith, Jason D. Tack, Ashley M. Tanner, Evan P. Tanner, Dirac Twidwell, Nicholas P. Webb, Scott L. Morford

Rangelands are extensive ecosystems, providing important ecosystem services while undergoing continuous change. As a result, improved monitoring technologies can help better characterize vegetation change. Satellite remote sensing has proven effective in this regard, tracking vegetation dynamics at broad and fine scales. We leveraged the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellites to estimate fractional cover and canopy gap across rangelands of the western United States. We produced annual, 10 m spatial resolution estimates of fractional cover and canopy gap size class for years 2018 to 2024. Fractional cover estimates include that of common plant functional types (annual forb and grass, bareground, littler, perennial forb and grass, shrub, tree) and select genera (including invasive annual grass species, pinyon-juniper species, and sagebrush species); canopy gap size classes include gap sizes 25 to 50, 51 to 100, 101 to 200, and greater than 200 cm. We make these data available as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs, organized as 75×75 km tiles covering the 17 western states of the United States.

Released November 17, 2025 09:31 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Brock Huntsman, Matthew J. Young, Kai Palenscar, Kurt E. Anderson, William Ota, Jordan Mae-Jean Buxton, Justin K. Clause, Danielle L. Palm, Jeff Lee Gronemyer, Brett Mills, Kerwin Russell, Rebecca Christensen

Released November 17, 2025 09:05 EST

2025, Remote Sensing (17)

Mahesh Shrestha, Victoria Mary Scholl, Aparajithan Sampath, Jeffrey Irwin, Travis Kropuenske, Josip Adams, Matthew Alexander Burgess, Lance R Brady

The use of Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UASs) for remote sensing applications has increased significantly in recent years due to their low cost, operational flexibility, and rapid advancements in sensor technologies. In many cases, UAS platforms are considered viable alternatives to conventional satellite and crewed airborne platforms, offering very high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution data. However, the radiometric quality of UAS-acquired data has not received equivalent attention, particularly with respect to absolute calibration. In this study, we (1) evaluate the absolute radiometric performance of two commonly used UAS sensors: the Headwall Nano-Hyperspec hyperspectral sensor and the MicaSense RedEdge-MX Dual Camera multispectral system; (2) assess the effectiveness of the Empirical Line Method (ELM) in improving the radiometric accuracy of reflectance products generated by these sensors; and (3) investigate the influence of calibration target characteristics—including size, material type, reflectance intensity, and quantity—on the performance of ELM for UAS data. A field campaign was conducted jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the USGS National Uncrewed Systems Office (NUSO) from 15 to 18 July 2023, at the USGS EROS Ground Validation Radiometer (GVR) site in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA, over a 160 m × 160 m vegetated area. Absolute calibration accuracy was evaluated by comparing UAS sensor-derived reflectance to in situ measurements of the site. Results indicate that the Headwall Nano-Hyperspec and MicaSense sensors underestimated reflectance by approximately 0.05 and 0.015 reflectance units, respectively. While the MicaSense sensor demonstrated better inherent radiometric accuracy, it exhibited saturation over bright targets due to limitations in its automatic gain and exposure settings. Application of the ELM using just two calibration targets reduced discrepancies to within 0.005 reflectance units. Reflectance products generated using various target materials—such as felt, melamine, or commercially available validation targets—showed comparable agreement with in situ measurements when used with the Nano-Hyperspec sensor. Furthermore, increasing the number of calibration targets beyond two did not yield measurable improvements in calibration accuracy. At a flight altitude of 200 ft above ground level (AGL), a target size of 0.6 m × 0.6 m or larger was sufficient to provide pure pixels for ELM implementation, whereas smaller targets (e.g., 0.3 m × 0.3 m) posed challenges in isolating pure pixels. Overall, the standard manufacturer-recommended calibration procedures were insufficient for achieving high radiometric accuracy with the tested sensors, which may restrict their applicability in scenarios requiring greater accuracy and precision. The use of the ELM significantly improved data quality, enhancing the reliability and applicability of UAS-based remote sensing in contexts requiring high precision and accuracy.

Released November 17, 2025 08:22 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Blake Logan, Mark Pegg, Kirk D. Steffensen, Jonathan J. Spurgeon

Objective

Knowledge of invasive Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix population demographics and distributions may inform estimates of efforts necessary to achieve reductions in abundance and identify locations to conduct removal. Although extensively studied in other parts of their invasive range (e.g., Mississippi and Illinois rivers), less is known regarding Silver Carp population demographics in Great Plains rivers and streams. As such, this study characterized Silver Carp population demographics along an invasion gradient in a Great Plains river network containing multiple hydrologically unique river reaches and tributaries.

Methods

Boat and tote-barge electrofishing surveys were conducted within the lower Platte River basin in the spring, summer, and fall of 2022 and 2023. Lapilli otoliths were collected for assessment of age, growth, and annual mortality. Information on sex also was collected. A spatial assessment of differences in population demographics was performed between core and periphery regions of the population.

Results

There were 1,528 Silver Carp collected. A spatial difference in relative abundance was observed and was associated with changes in body condition and total length along the longitudinal gradient of the lower Platte River basin. Silver Carp sex ratios were male-skewed across the lower Platte River basin (1.6:1), particularly in reaches near the invasion front (10.1:1).

Conclusions

Silver Carp population demographics within the lower Platte River basin were aligned with an establishing population characterized by rapid individual growth and skewed sex ratios. Broadscale variation in population characteristics, including growth and size structure, suggested density-dependent processes. Silver Carp occurred throughout the study area, indicating that braided Great Plains streams are susceptible to invasion. This study provided insight into Silver Carp population demographics in the lower Platte River basin and may provide useful information for the development of Silver Carp management plans in similar Great Plains streams.

Released November 17, 2025 07:48 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1046

David L. George, Charles M. Cannon

This report describes a modeling investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of hazards in the Toutle and Cowlitz River valleys posed by hypothetical outburst floods from Spirit Lake, Washington. A massive debris avalanche resulting from the collapse of Mount St. Helens’ north flank during the May 18, 1980, eruption blocked Spirit Lake’s natural outlet into the North Fork Toutle River. Lacking a natural outlet, subsequent runoff in the Spirit Lake watershed contributed to a rising lake level, elevating the potential for debris-dam breaching or catastrophic failure. The influence of highly erodible bed sediment in the upper North Fork Toutle River on downstream flood and debris-flow dynamics and extent is assessed in this study. Simulations of clear-water (non-erosive) outburst floods were used as a baseline and compared to erosive flows that entrain large volumes of material and transition into debris flows along their flow path, revealing the influence of entrainment on hazard extent. Clear-water floods were modeled with the shallow water equations. Erosive flows were modeled with a two-phase granular fluid model that accommodates mobilization and incorporation of sediment from the bed into the overlying flow and resultant changes in flow rheology across a wide range of solid concentrations, from dilute suspensions to dense-granular debris flows. Entrainment of bed material was found to substantially increase the total flow volume (total volume of transported water and sediment is approximately 150 percent of the water volume for non-erosive flows). Erosive flows are shown to exhibit higher flow-front speeds and faster downstream arrival times than non-erosive flows, consistent with volume amplification effects near the actively mobilizing flow front. However, the larger total volume of transported material does not necessarily lead to an enhancement of total volume throughput (cumulative discharge) or inundation extent (total affected area) for all locations along the entire flow path; while entrainment leads to the displacement of a larger volume of material overall, much of this dislocated material (water and sediment) deposits upstream from the distal extent of the flows. These results are consistent with energetic considerations of initial potential energy and granular shear resistance.