Released May 21, 2025 11:45 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3023

Jane S. Hearon, Christopher J. Schenk, Sarah E. Gelman, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Tracey J. Mercier, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kira K. Timm, Ronald M. Drake II, Andrea D. Cicero, Phuong A. Le

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional and continuous resources of 473 million barrels of oil and 27 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Mowry Composite Total Petroleum System in the Southwestern Wyoming Province, Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah.

Released May 21, 2025 10:30 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Map 3535

Arthur J. Merschat, Gregory J. Walsh, Peter M. Valley, Ryan J. McAleer, Thomas R. Armstrong

Introduction 

The bedrock geology of the Bellows Falls 7.5- x 15-minute quadrangle, Vermont and New Hampshire, consists of polydeformed Ordovician to Devonian metasedimentary, metavolcanic, and metaplutonic rocks of the Connecticut Valley trough, Bronson Hill anticlinorium (or Bronson Hill terrane), and the Central Maine terrane. Previous work in this area includes a 1:62,500-scale published map and text (1946), State geologic maps of New Hampshire (1997) and Vermont (2011), and various maps and reports presented largely as parts of field trip guidebooks. A provisional open-file map of the geology of the Vermont part of the Bellows Falls 7.5- x 15-minute quadrangle, completed in 1997, is incorporated and revised on this map based on additional fieldwork.

This study recognizes three major structural levels from west to east and from lowest to highest: (1) autochthonous rocks of the Connecticut Valley trough; (2) allochthonous rocks of the New Hampshire sequence and Bronson Hill arc in the Monroe thrust sheet (or nappe), including the Skitchewaug nappe; and (3) allochthonous rocks of the Fall Mountain thrust sheet or nappe.

Released May 21, 2025 08:56 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5032

Kellan R. Strauch, Bradley R. Hoefer

Digital flood-inundation map libraries for two reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of Little and Big Papillion Creeks in Omaha, Nebraska, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resource District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at Little Papillion Creek at Irvington, Nebr. (USGS station 06610750), Little Papillion Creek at Ak-Sar-Ben at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610765), and Big Papillion Creek at Q Street at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 06610770) streamgages. Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System database at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/.

Flood profiles were computed for two different reaches that constitute 14.8 miles of stream length in the study area by using hydraulic models. The models were calibrated by adjusting roughness coefficients to best represent the current (2022) stage-streamflow relation at the streamgages within the study reach.

The hydraulic models were then used to compute water-surface profiles at 1-foot stage intervals for selected stage ranges to represent various flooding scenarios at the streamgages in each reach. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a digital elevation model using a geographic information system, which had a 10-foot grid spacing to delineate the flooding extents and water depths for each stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities and post flood recovery efforts.

Released May 20, 2025 09:22 EST

2025, Conservation Biology

Gregor W. Schuurman, Wylie Carr, Cat Hawkins Hoffman, David J. Lawrence, Brian W. Miller, Erik A. Beever, Jean Brennan, Katherine R. Clifford, Scott Covington, Shelley D. Crausbay, Amanda E. Cravens, John E. Gross, Linh Hoang, Stephen Jackson, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Wendy Morrison, Elizabeth A. Nelson, Robin O'Malley, Jay O. Peterson, Mark T. Porath, Karen Prentice, Joel H. Reynolds, Suresh A. Sethi, Helen Sofaer, Jennifer L. Wilkening

No abstract available.

Released May 20, 2025 09:17 EST

2025, Geology

Amy Gartman, Terrence Blackburn, Kiana Frank, Susan Q. Lang, Jeffrey S. Seewald

The Von Damm vent field (VDVF) on the Mid-Cayman Rise in the Caribbean Sea is unique among modern hydrothermal systems in that the chimneys and mounds are almost entirely composed of talc. We analyzed samples collected in 2020 and report that in addition to disordered talc of variable crystallinity, carbonates are a major class of mineral at VDVF. The carbonate minerals include aragonite, calcite, magnesium-rich calcite, and dolomite. Talc and carbonate mineral textures indicate that, rather than replacing volcanic host rock, they precipitate from the mixing of hydrothermal fluids and seawater at the seafloor, occurring in chimneys and surrounding rubble. Alternating precipitation of this mineral assemblage is pervasive, with carbonate minerals typically being succeeded by talc, and with indications that in some cases talc and carbonate minerals replace one another. Stable carbon isotopic data indicate the carbonate minerals originate from the mixing of seawater and hydrothermal fluid, which is supported by U-Th data. Radiocarbon calcite ages and talc ²³⁴U-²³⁰Th isochron ages indicate mineral ages spanning over thousands to tens of thousands of years. Analyses of these samples illustrate a dynamic system that transitions from carbonate-dominated to Mg-silicate−dominated precipitation over time scales of thousands of years. Our observations raise questions regarding the eventual fate of seafloor precipitates and whether carbonate and silicate minerals in such settings are sequestered and represented in the rock record.

Released May 19, 2025 14:50 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5016

Travis L. Smith, Scott A. Olson, James M. LeNoir, Rena D. Kalmon, Elizabeth A. Ahearn

A major storm caused catastrophic flooding in many parts of Vermont on July 9–12, 2023, resulting in millions of dollars in damages. The high amount of rainfall caused several rivers to peak at record levels, in some cases exceeding records set during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, collected and analyzed data that characterized the flood in Vermont. The data collected included peak water-surface elevations, taken from high-water marks at bridges, dams, and roads, and peak streamflow and annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) at streamgages, lake gages, and selected ungaged locations. At 11 of the 80 streamgages with 12 to 94 years of record, the July 2023 peak streamflow was the peak of record. Ten streamgages recorded a peak streamflow with an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent (greater than or equal to a 100-year recurrence interval).

The July 2023 flood affected many of the same communities as the historical flood caused by Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. Twenty of the 45 continuous-recording streamgages running during both events recorded greater peak streamflows during the July 2023 flood than during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. Four of the 11 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with period-of-record maximum peak streamflows observed during the July 2023 flood had previously recorded their maximum period-of-record peak streamflows during Tropical Storm Irene. There were 17 rivers in Vermont that were surveyed for high-water marks during both Tropical Storm Irene and the July 2023 flood. On those 17 rivers, a total of 103 sites contained surveyed high-water marks for both events. Thirty-two of these sites had higher surveyed elevations for the July 2023 flood than Tropical Storm Irene, including Black River in Newport, Black River in Springfield, Jewell Brook, Middlebury River, Missisquoi River, Ottauquechee River, Otter Creek, Wells River, Whetstone Brook, and Winooski River. Peak water-surface elevations were not collected on the Lamoille River in 2011.

Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance studies were evaluated in the context of the July 2023 flood. Peak streamflows at streamgages and nearby locations were assessed to determine the influence of the July 2023 flood on the AEPs used in past studies. Overall, 21 of 26 streamflow-computation locations in the flood insurance studies had more than a 10 percent difference in the 1-percent AEP streamflow. A hydraulic evaluation of surveyed water-surface elevations following the July 2023 flood was compared with the AEP profiles from past studies. Four of the 10 streamgages analyzed had poor alignment between the AEPs of the observed streamflows and the AEPs of the observed peak water-surface elevations as computed from flood insurance studies.

Released May 19, 2025 13:20 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5064-G

Steven K. Sando, Nancy A. Barth, Roy Sando, Katherine J. Chase

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation.

The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation.

The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results.

The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Released May 19, 2025 10:16 EST

2025, Freshwater Biology (70)

David A. Roon, Jason B. Dunham, Joseph R. Benjamin, Bret C. Harvey, James R Bellmore

1. Resource managers are interested in whether thinning second-growth forests may be a viable restoration strategy for stream and riparian habitats, but may be concerned about the potential impacts that increases in stream temperature associated with riparian thinning treatments may have on cold-water salmonid fishes.
2. We evaluated the effects of riparian forest thinning on resident populations of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) in coastal northern California catchments using a manipulative field experiment with a replicated before-after-control-impact design (pre-treatment data collected in 2016, thinning treatments occurred in 2017, and post-treatment data collected in 2018). Experimental thinning treatments reduced riparian shade by 20%–30% along five 150–200 m stream reaches. To provide a process-based evaluation of the implications of riparian thinning for coastal cutthroat trout, we combined seasonal observations of trout density, biomass, and growth with bioenergetics modelling.
3. Cutthroat trout density increased by 8%–31% and biomass increased by 27%–111% in thinned reaches 1 year post-treatment, but responses varied widely across sites and seasons so did not always differ statistically. Growth rates of cutthroat trout varied more among seasons than among reach types (upstream reference, thinned, and downstream), peaking in spring and overwinter relative to summer.
4. Bioenergetics modelling indicated that cutthroat trout responded to thinning-induced increases in stream temperature and shifts in prey energy density via higher consumption rates (i.e., fish fed more frequently) in thinned reaches. Additionally, reach-scale consumption estimates indicated that the energy intake of cutthroat trout increased at the population level in thinned reaches. However, thinned reaches exhibited relatively small changes in consumption, suggesting that riparian thinning was unlikely to enhance growth opportunities for cutthroat trout, supporting our empirical growth observations.
5. Collectively, our field experiment suggests that salmonid fishes may be resilient to thinning second-growth riparian forests when treatments do not substantially increase water temperatures. Moreover, our results highlight that pairing empirical data with bioenergetics modelling can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms driving fish responses to riparian forest restoration.

Released May 19, 2025 09:21 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3024

Barbara L. Bodenstein, Shelby Jo Weidenkopf

The U.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center provides diagnostic services to determine causes of wildlife morbidity and mortality events to State, Federal, and Tribal partners. To accomplish this, we rely on the timely collection and evaluation of submitted carcasses and the epidemiologic information relayed from personnel in the field. Our current submission criteria can be found here: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nwhc/science/ diagnostic-case-submission-guidelines. If the majority of carcasses found in the field are unsuitable for submission, then sick animals (birds, mammals, reptiles) that have been euthanized are acceptable specimens. Depending on the agency or affiliated institution, there may be additional requirements for submission. When applicable, always consult the organization’s wildlife health or veterinary staff.

Released May 19, 2025 08:02 EST

2025, Ecological Economics (236)

Grant Webster, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Patricia A. Champ, James Meldrum, Kelly Wallace, Colleen Donovan, Carolyn Wagner, Christopher M. Barth, Josh Kuehn, Suzanne Wittenbrink, Christine Taniguchi

As the realized experiences of wildfires threatening communities increase, the importance of proactive evacuation preparation and wildfire risk mitigation on private property to reduce the loss of lives and property is shaping wildfire policy and programs. To date, research has focused on pre-wildfire evacuation preparation and risk mitigation independently. This paper examines the substitutability or complementarity of these proactive risk-reducing actions. If mitigation and evacuation preparedness are substitutes, wildfire education programs may take a life-over-property approach. However, if proactive risk-reducing efforts are complements, wildfire education programs can confidently encourage residents to prepare for evacuation while also mitigating wildfire risk on their properties. This complementarity may also demonstrate that poorly mitigated households are less prepared to evacuate, compounding their risks. Using household survey data from 25 wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities across five Western states, we explore how wildfire risk mitigation actions affect evacuation preparedness. We find that improving household wildfire mitigation is associated with an improvement in wildfire evacuation preparedness. This complementary relationship between wildfire mitigation and evacuation preparedness actions highlights the potential benefits of a wildfire education approach that encourages residents to simultaneously prepare for evacuation and reduce wildfire risk on their properties before they are threatened by a wildfire.

Released May 18, 2025 09:27 EST

2025, Fishes (10)

Caleb A. Aldridge, Michael E. Colvin

Standardizing data collection, management, and analysis processes can improve the reliability and efficiency of fisheries monitoring programs, yet few studies have examined the operationalization of these tasks within agency settings. We reviewed the Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks, Fisheries Bureau’s inland recreational fisheries monitoring program—a 30+-year effort to standardize field protocols, data handling procedures, and automated analyses through a custom-built computer application, the Fisheries Resources Analysis System (FRAS). Drawing on quantitative summaries of sampling trends and qualitative interviews with fisheries managers, we identified key benefits, challenges, and opportunities associated with the Bureau’s standardization efforts. Standardized procedures improved sampling consistency, data reliability, and operational efficiency, enabling the long-term tracking of fish population and angler metrics across more than 270 managed waterbodies. However, challenges related to analytical transparency and spatiotemporal comparisons persist. Simulations indicated that under current conditions, 5.8, 22.9, and 37.1 years would be required to sample (boat electrofishing) 50%, 75%, and 95% of the Bureau’s waterbodies at least once, respectively; these figures should translate to other agencies, assuming similar resource availability per waterbody. The monitoring program has reduced manual processing effort and enhanced staff capacity for waterbody-specific management, yet several opportunities remain to improve efficiency and utility. These include expanding FRAS functionalities for trend visualization, integrating mobile field data entry to reduce transcription errors, linking monitoring results with management objectives, and enhancing automated report generation for management support. Strengthening these elements could not only streamline workflows but better position agencies to apply standardized data in adaptive management embedded into the monitoring program.

Released May 16, 2025 14:35 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3019

Timothy J. Stagnitta, Gina N. Groseclose, Harper N. Beckers, Shawn C. Fisher

The Long Island Sound and its watershed encompass an area of about 17,000 square miles and include the Connecticut, Housatonic, and Thames Rivers, which all drain to the sound. Dozens of organizations from government agencies, nonprofits, and Tribal Nations have developed projects and monitoring programs to analyze and protect the water resources of the watershed and sound. The abundance of data and lack of an existing searchable index require a centralized metadata repository to allow users to find water resources data more efficiently. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Long Island Sound Study, has created an interactive map application to visualize and search for metadata information across organizations working to monitor and protect the Long Island Sound.

Released May 16, 2025 11:11 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3014

Carol Lydic

Introduction 

Federal, State, Tribal, and local entities managing lands in New Mexico have concerns about wildfire risk, wildlife habitat, and flood risk. Land managers in urban areas along the Rio Grande corridor and in the State’s rural northwest and southeast also have concerns about existing and developing roads, buildings, and other infrastructure. Federal, State, Tribal, and local organizations actively manage and monitor New Mexico’s water resources. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and New Mexico. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in New Mexico is shown. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $9.32 million in new benefits annually to the State.

Released May 16, 2025 10:00 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5024

Cassandra D. Smith

The “Water for Birds Tool” is a spreadsheet-based tool (using Microsoft Excel) designed to help resource managers assess the spatial extent and types of bird habitats in the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, southeastern Oregon. The tool quantifies the areas of open water, partial water, and water depths on a monthly timescale during the irrigation season (April–July) from 2021 to 2024. This tool combines previously published datasets and models but also incorporates new measurements collected by partners. Results show that the relation between the amount of bird habitat and the extent (partial and open water) of Malheur Lake varies by bird guild. The Donner und Blitzen River supplied all or most of the surface water inflow to Malheur Lake during the analysis years, emphasizing the importance of informed management of the river. Additional gaging of inflows and diversions and better estimates of recharge and irrigated areas can help refine estimates of water use on the refuge.

Released May 16, 2025 09:59 EST

2025, Pacific Science (78) 279-293

Matthew Struckhoff

The terrestrial management plan for Palmyra Atoll includes large-scale removal of coconut (Cocos nucifera) as part of native forest restoration and contaminant remediation that will leave soils and vegetation communities profoundly altered. To inform those efforts and provide baseline data for restoration monitoring, woody stem crowns and vegetation communities at Palmyra Atoll were mapped using existing datasets and manual photointerpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery collected using uncrewed aerial systems. Coconut palm, grand devil's claws (Pisonia grandis), and numerous other species were delineated as either individual crowns, crown portions, or species patches. The extent of land area at high tide was also delineated based on vegetation patterns, topographic indicators, and deposition lines of vegetation litter and flotsam. Finally, in a novel “bottom-up” approach to vegetation community mapping, crown maps were used to delineate U.S. National Vegetation Classification System vegetation communities and other management areas. Of the more than 44,000 mapped crowns, coconut was by far the most abundant species, comprising nearly half of the mapped stems. By establishing a quantitative baseline for current habitat conditions, this project facilitates the integration of contaminant remediation recovery activities with habitat restoration planning, implementation, and monitoring at Palmyra Atoll. Results illustrate the appropriateness of the mapping approach for plant species-level censuses and cover estimation over relatively small areas to aid in inventory and monitoring and to facilitate management planning. The relatively simple mapping methods used in this study are appropriate for resource managers with limited human and computational resources to support automated mapping.

Released May 16, 2025 08:27 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Carl J. Legleiter, Gordon E. Grant, Inhyeok Bae, Becky Fasth, Elowyn Yager, Daniel C. White, Laura A. Hempel, Merritt Elizabeth Harlan, Christina Leonard, Robert W. Dudley

Critical flow theory provides a physical foundation for inferring discharge from measurements of wavelength and channel width made from images. In rivers with hydraulically steep local slopes greater than
∼0.01, flow velocities are high and the Froude number F r (ratio of inertial to gravitational forces) can approach 1.0 (critical flow) or greater. Under these conditions, undular hydraulic jumps (UHJ's) can form as standing wave trains at slope transitions or constrictions. The presence of UHJ's indicates that mean F r ≈ 1, implying that the velocity and depth of the flow and the spacing of the waves are uniquely related to one another. Discharges estimated from 82 Google Earth images agreed closely with discharges recorded at gaging stations (R² = 0.98), with a mean bias of 1% ± 11%. This approach could provide reliable discharge information in many fluvial environments where critical flow occurs, which tend to be underrepresented in gage networks

Released May 16, 2025 07:54 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1007

David C. Douglas, Michael D. Fleming, Vijay P. Patil, David H. Ward

The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service have developed a three-tiered strategy for monitoring eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, that targets different spatial and temporal scales. The broadest-scale monitoring (tier-1) uses satellite imagery about every 5 years to delineate the spatial extent of eelgrass beds throughout the lagoon. This report describes the most recent (mid-2020s) tier-1 eelgrass monitoring at Izembek Lagoon. The monitoring effort began by canvasing all satellite imagery collected during summer, under clear daytime skies and at low-tide, since the last tier-1 effort in 2006. Two eelgrass maps of Izembek Lagoon were generated by first creating maps of spectrally unique classes from two Sentinel-2 satellite images collected on July 1, 2016, and August 14, 2020, then attributing those spectral classes with information about eelgrass conditions based on field data. Specifically, maps depicting various eelgrass metrics, such as percentage of cover and modeled biomass, were generated using summaries of the ground data that spatially intersected each spectral class. Comparisons of the 2016 and 2020 Sentinel-2 maps showing eelgrass distributional extent, as well as a 2006 Landsat map, indicated that areas where eelgrass presence may have declined during 2006–20 were most prevalent in the central part of Izembek Lagoon. More recently, during 2016-20, areas of possible biomass decline were more prevalent in the southern part of the lagoon. Monitoring eelgrass conditions at Izembek Lagoon with satellite imagery and concurrent ground data allows conditions to be compared over time, but the influences of tide levels, growing season phenology, and spatiotemporal co-registration accuracy should be considered when designing and interpreting change detection analyses.

Released May 15, 2025 09:38 EST

2025, Newsletter

Laura Cecilia Shriver

No abstract available.

Released May 15, 2025 07:53 EST

2025, Ecology Letters (28)

Kristina E. Young, Osvaldo E. Sala, Anthony Darrouzet-Nardi, Colin Tucker, Rebecca Finger-Higgens, Megan Elyse Starbuck, Sasha C. Reed

Dryland organisms exhibit varied responses to changes in precipitation, including event size, frequency, and soil moisture duration, influencing carbon uptake and reserve management strategies. This principle, central to the pulse-reserve paradigm, has not been thoroughly evaluated in biological soil crusts (biocrusts), essential primary producers on dryland surfaces. We conducted two experiments to investigate carbon uptake in biocrusts under different precipitation regimes. In the first, we applied a gradient of watering amounts to biocrusts dominated by moss or cyanobacteria, hypothesising distinct pulse-response strategies. The second experiment extended watering treatments over three months, varying pulse size and frequency. Our results revealed distinct carbon uptake patterns: moss crusts exhibited increased CO2 uptake with larger, less frequent watering events, whereas cyanobacteria crusts maintained similar carbon uptake across all event sizes. These findings suggest divergent pulse-response strategies across biocrust types, with implications for modelling dryland carbon dynamics and informing land management under changing precipitation regimes.

Released May 15, 2025 07:39 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2024-1070

John M. Plumb, Russell W. Perry, Kyle De Juilio

Executive Summary

The Trinity River is managed in two sections: (1) from the upper 64-kilometer “restoration reach” downstream from Lewiston Dam to the confluence with the North Fork Trinity River, and (2) the 120-kilometer lower Trinity River downstream from the restoration reach. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) has been previously applied to these reaches and the Klamath River. To estimate fish growth, past S3 calibration efforts in the Trinity and Klamath Rivers used maximum likelihood methods that considered only the abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) passing a fish trap to estimate survival and movement parameters, but not fish consumption. Previous calibrations did not estimate the average proportion of maximum consumption (C_y) when estimating survival (S_y) and movement (M_0y) parameters across years (y) of data, but because no other information was available in the literature a fixed value of C_y=0.66 was assumed. Therefore, the goal of this report is to present an alternative approach that calibrates the S3 model to multivariate data (that is, abundance and size), enabling the estimation of the average proportion of maximum consumption, in conjunction with survival and movement parameters for a particular migration year. We fit the S3 model to individual years of weekly trap abundance estimates and mean fish sizes (fork length) at the Pear Tree Gulch (hereafter referred to as Pear Tree) fish trap representing the restoration reach. We used the Earth Mover’s Distance (EMD) as the objective value to be minimized in parameter optimization. This approach estimated survival, movement, and consumption parameters for each migration year. Because we had information on the abundance of natural and hatchery produced juvenile salmon at the fish traps, we estimated survival and movement for natural and hatchery fish.

S3 is a deterministic life-stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon. A key theme of the model is that river discharge affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.

The physical template of the restoration reach of the Trinity River was classified into 356 meso-habitat units comprised of runs, riffles, and pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily discharge, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity time series were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg maturation and survival, and in turn, juvenile movement, growth, and survival.

We estimated movement, survival, and consumption parameters by calibrating the model to 12 years of weekly juvenile abundance estimates and fish sizes at the Pear Tree fish trap near the downstream end of the restoration reach. We estimated parameters for 12 years that included a wide range of female spawner abundances (1,414–11,494) and water year types (critically dry–extremely wet). We contrast the estimated parameters to the corresponding number of female spawners and the total annual volume of water discharged for the Trinity River (Trinity River Restoration Program; https://www.trrp.net/restoration/flows/summary/).

The calibration consisted of replicating historical conditions as closely as possible (for example, discharge; temperature; spawner abundance, spawning location and timing, and hatchery releases), and then running the model to predict weekly abundance passing the trap location from each brood year of adults and subsequent migration year of their juvenile progeny. Because density-dependent movement was favored in past evaluations, we estimated S3 parameters based on density-independent survival and density-dependent movement. Likewise, each year’s estimated survival parameter for natural (S_Ny) and hatchery (S_Hy) fish may be interpreted as the mean daily survival probability from emergence or hatchery release to the Pear Tree fish trap. Under density dependence, the estimated movement parameter for natural (M_0Ny) and hatchery (M_0Hy) fish represents the intercept of the Beverton-Holt model; the probability of remaining in a habitat at near-zero abundance.

We estimated C_y by using EMD and incorporating abundance and fish size into model calibration. Average daily proportions of maximum consumption, , across the years were generally high (=0.640; standard deviation (SD) SD=0.176), suggesting that fish were feeding at about two-thirds of expected maximum consumption rates. This average proportion of maximum consumption,is very similar to what has been assumed (=0.66) in previous Trinity and Klamath River S3 calibration and simulation efforts. In 2017, we estimated the lowest C_y, suggesting lower average consumption for juvenile salmon in high-discharge water years. When this high discharge year was excluded, there was no apparent trend in C_y with annual water volume. Estimates of survival showed little trend over the range in spawner abundances, but a trend towards higher natural and hatchery fish survival with higher annual volumes of water was apparent. Over the 12 years, the average survival of hatchery fish was =0.888 (SD=0.079) and the average survival natural fish was=0.969 (SD=0.01).

With respect to fish movement, we estimated higher M_0Ny and M_0Hy with higher annual volumes of water in the Trinity River. Higher M_N0y or M_H0y suggest greater probability of remaining in a habitat at low fish densities, with potential for density-dependent processes in movement to occur. The highest M_{0Ny =} 0.676 was estimated during brood year 2012, and the overall average for natural fish was =0.276 (SD=0.188) and for hatchery fish was=0.467 (SD=0.235). Under the Beverton-Holt model, as M_0Ny or M_0Hy approach zero, there is less capacity for change in fish movement as fish density increases.

The S3 model was initialized with only the spatiotemporal distribution of spawners, so it performed well at capturing the essential outmigration features that are ultimately governed by rates of growth, movement, and mortality. We used a new optimization method that could accommodate multivariate data on abundance and fish size collected at the Pear Tree fish trap, enabling the calibration of S3 to estimate five parameters for 12 separate years of data. Incorporating weekly fish size data for each year in our parameter optimization process made the estimation of C_y possible and represents a step forward in the fitting of the S3 model to fish trap data for the purposes of parameter calibration and the estimation of growth parameters with respect to annual conditions. We identified lack of fit and adding important effects into the S3 model may improve the S3 estimation and simulation of water scenarios.

The Trinity River Restoration Program (TRRP) Science Advisory Board recommended that the TRRP focus on developing core elements of a decision support system (DSS; Buffington and others, 2014). Toward that end, the habitat and S3 models described in this report are both core elements of the DSS. The structure of S3 makes it a particularly useful fish production model for the DSS because population dynamics are sensitive to (1) water temperature, (2) daily discharge management, and (3) habitat quality and quantity. Each of these variables are key management parameters under consideration in the TRRP. As such, the S3 model may provide valuable insights into the potentially variable effects of different management decisions on the Trinity River.

Released May 14, 2025 10:21 EST

2025, PLoS ONE (20)

Dylan Gerald-Everett Gomes, Joseph R. Benjamin, Benjamin J. Clemens, Ralph Lampman, Jason B. Dunham

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

Released May 14, 2025 09:42 EST

2025, ScienceAdvances (11)

Esteban Gazel, Kyle Dayton, Wenwei Liang, Junlin Hua, Kendra J. Lynn, Julia E. Hammer

As the Pacific Plate migrates over the mantle plume below Hawaiʻi, magma flux decreases, resulting in changes in eruptive volume, style, and composition. It is thought that melt storage becomes deeper and ephemeral with the transition from highly voluminous tholeiitic (shield stage) to the less voluminous alkaline (post-shield and rejuvenation stages) magmatism. To quantitatively test this, we applied high-precision fluid inclusion barometry via Raman spectroscopy to samples from representative volcanoes of different evolutionary stages. This suggests an evolution from shield-stage shallow magma storage (~1 to 2 kilometers) for Kīlauea to a post-shield stage that includes crustal magma storage within the volcanic edifice (~2 kilometers) and deeper storage below the Moho (~20 to 27 kilometers) for Haleakalā. The rejuvenation stage (Diamond Head) displays mantle-dominated storage (~22 to 30 kilometers). High melt fluxes likely form stable conduits from the mantle to a shallow reservoir in the shield volcanoes. As melt flux decreases, the Moho becomes the boundary controlling melt stagnation and evolution.

Released May 14, 2025 08:21 EST

2025, Ecology and Evolution (15)

Rebecca Finger-Higgens, David L. Hoover, Anna C. Knight, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, Michael C. Duniway

Rising temperatures are predicted to further limit dryland water availability as droughts become more intense and frequent and seasonal precipitation patterns shift. Vegetation drought stress may increase mortality and cause declines and delays in phenological events, thereby impacting species' capacity to persist and recover from extreme drought conditions. We compare phenological responses of two common dryland perennial grass species, Achnatherum hymenoides (C₃) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C₄), to 4 years of experimentally imposed precipitation drought treatments (cool season, warm season, ambient), followed by 2 years of recovery on the Colorado Plateau, United States of America. Tagged individual grasses from both species were monitored biweekly and assessed for phenological metrics and mortality. The C₃ grass exhibited less phenological flexibility to both seasonal and interannual drought conditions and experienced high rates of mortality, thus reducing resiliency. Conversely, the C₄ grass showed more phenological plasticity during imposed drought treatments, with treatment effects diminishing in the two-year recovery period during a severe ambient drought. Synthesis: Results suggest that plant photosynthetic strategies may impact plant resistance and resiliency to drought. Here, C₃ grass populations may decline, potentially shifting cool dryland ecosystems into a system comprised predominantly of warm-season adapted species.

Released May 14, 2025 08:15 EST

2025, JGR Planets (130)

A.L. Roberts, S. Gupta, S.G. Banhan, A. Cowart, Lauren A. Edgar, W. Rapin, W.E. Dietrich, E.S. Kite, J.M. Davis, G. Caravaca, C.A. Mondro, P.J. Gasda, J.R. Johnson, S. Le Mouelic, D.M. Fey, A.B. Bryk, G. Paar, R.A. Harris, A. Fraeman, A.R. Vasavada

The surface of modern Mars is largely shaped by wind, but the influence of past wind activity is less well constrained. Sedimentary rocks exposed in the lower foothills of Aeolis Mons, the central mound within Gale crater, record a transition from predominantly lacustrine deposition in the Murray formation to aeolian deposition in the Mirador formation. Here, we report a series of enigmatic decameter-wide, concave-up scour-and-fill structures within the Mirador formation and discuss their formation mechanisms. Using panoramic images of stratigraphy exposed in cliff faces acquired by the Curiosity rover, we map the extent, distribution and orientation of the scour-and-fill structures and document the sedimentary facies within and surrounding these structures. The scours are grouped into two classes: (A) scours with a simple, symmetric morphology and light-toned, draping infill; and (B) scours with lateral pinching and dark-toned infill. We find that the scour-enclosing environment is composed of planar, even-in-thickness laminations with a pin-stripe pattern which we interpret as wind-ripple strata formed within an aeolian sandsheet environment. Class B contains cm-scale cross-bedding and a wing-shaped feature making this scour-and-fill structure consistent with fluvial processes. We interpret scour fill of class A as an aeolian infill due to similarities with the surrounding sandsheet strata. The broad morphologies and distribution of class A are also consistent with the geometry of blowout structures formed by localized, enhanced wind deflation. These paleo-blowout structures occur clustered within the same stratigraphic interval, which may imply that they record an interval of intensified wind activity at Gale crater.

Released May 14, 2025 08:09 EST

2025, Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology

Christina M. Mackey, Michael G. Iacchetta, Holly J. Puglis

Long-term fire retardants are employed to combat and control wildfires by altering the way fuels burn, and they continue to decrease fire intensity after water in the retardant solution has evaporated. After application, fire retardants may persist on dry stream beds or in riparian habitats before precipitation events flush the retardant into intermittent streams. We exposed juvenile (30–60 days post swim-up) rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to fire retardants weathered for 7–56 days on different substrates (duff, gravel, high organic content soil, and low organic content soil) under static conditions for 96 h to evaluate the potential toxicity of two current-use long-term fire-retardant (LC95A-R and MVP-Fx) products. Trout mortality was greater in LC95A-R treatments compared to MVP-Fx due to higher concentrations of LC95A-R in the applied product than MVP-Fx at the same application rate. Underlying substrate affected fire-retardant toxicity, with 31% higher average mortality for products applied to duff and gravel compared to soil. Differences in mortality across substrates and products after weathering may be attributed to differences in the mix ratio of applied product and interactions of product chemistries with underlying substrate. These interactions resulted in elevated ionic concentrations of the overlying water in duff and gravel treatments. Trout mortality decreased 15% for products weathered 56 days compared to 7 days. Our results suggest that long-term fire retardants may persist in the environment and that underlying substrate may alter the toxicity of these products upon entrance into an intermittent stream.

Released May 13, 2025 11:29 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1025

Scarlett L. Howell, Barbara E. Kus

We surveyed for Least Bell’s Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus; vireo) and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus; flycatcher) at the Mojave River Dam study area near Hesperia, California, in 2024. Four vireo surveys were completed between April 17 and July 2, 2024, and three flycatcher surveys were completed between May 23 and July 2, 2024.

We detected three territorial male vireos, all of which were paired. No juveniles were observed during surveys. Vireo territories were reported in two habitat types: riparian scrub and willow-cottonwood. Red or arroyo willow (Salix laevigata or lasiolepis) was the dominant plant species in most vireo territories. No territorial or transient flycatchers were observed.

Released May 13, 2025 09:30 EST

2025, Remote Sensing (17)

Graham A. Sexstone, Garrett Alexander Akie, David J. Selkowitz, Theodore B. Barnhart, David M. Rey, Claudia León-Salazar, Emily Carbone, Lindsay A. Bearup

Given the highly variable distribution of seasonal snowpacks in complex mountainous environments, the accurate snow modeling of basin-wide snow water equivalent (SWE) requires a spatially distributed approach at a sufficiently fine grid resolution (<500 m) to account for the important processes in the seasonal evolution of a snowpack (e.g., wind redistribution of snow to resolve patchy snow cover in an alpine zone). However, even well-validated snow evolution models, such as SnowModel, are prone to errors when key model inputs, such as the precipitation and wind speed and direction, are inaccurate or only available at coarse spatial resolutions. Incorporating fine-spatial-resolution remotely sensed snow-covered area (SCA) information into spatially distributed snow modeling has the potential to refine and improve fine-resolution snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates. This study developed 30 m resolution SnowModel simulations across the Big Thompson River, Fraser River, Three Lakes, and Willow Creek Basins, a total area of 4212 km² in Colorado, for the water years 2000–2023, and evaluated the incorporation of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat SCA datasets into the model’s development and calibration. The SnowModel was calibrated spatially to the Landsat mean annual snow persistence (SP) and temporally to the MODIS mean basin SCA using a multi-objective calibration procedure executed using Latin hypercube sampling and a stepwise calibration process. The Landsat mean annual SP was also used to further optimize the SnowModel simulations through the development of a spatially variable precipitation correction field. The evaluations of the SnowModel simulations using the Airborne Snow Observatories’ (ASO’s) light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived SWE estimates show that the versions of the SnowModel calibrated to the remotely sensed SCA had an improved performance (mean error ranging from −28 mm to −6 mm) compared with the baseline simulations (mean error ranging from 69 mm to 86 mm), and comparable spatial patterns to those of the ASO, especially at the highest elevations. Furthermore, this study’s results highlight how a regularly updated 30 m resolution SCA could be used to further improve the calibrated SnowModel simulations to near real time (latency of 5 days or less).

Released May 13, 2025 08:59 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Michael P. Carey, Joshua C. Koch, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Brett Poulin, Christian E. Zimmerman

Permafrost thaw alters groundwater flow, river hydrology, stream-catchment interactions, and the availability of carbon and nutrients in headwater streams. The impact of permafrost on watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry of headwater streams has been demonstrated, but there is little understanding of how permafrost influences fish in these ecosystems. We examined relations among permafrost characteristics, the resulting changes in water temperature, stream hydrology (e.g., discharge flashiness), and macroinvertebrates, with the abundance, biomass, and energy density of juvenile Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) and Arctic Grayling (Thymallus arcticus) across 10 headwater streams in northwestern Alaska. Macroinvertebrate density was driven by concentrations of dissolved carbon and nutrients supporting stream food webs. Dolly Varden abundance was primarily related to water temperature with fewer fish in warmer streams, whereas Dolly Varden energy density decreased with the flashiness of the headwater streams. Dolly Varden biomass was related to both temperature and bottom-up food web effects. The energy density of Arctic Grayling decreased with warmer temperatures and discharge flashiness. These relations demonstrate the importance of terrestrial–aquatic connections in permafrost landscapes and indicate the complexity of landscape effects on fish. Because permafrost thaw is one of the most impactful changes occurring as the Arctic warms, an improved understanding of how stream temperature, hydrology, and bottom-up food web processes influence fish populations can aid forecasting of future conditions across the Arctic.

Released May 12, 2025 15:08 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5133

Cynthia A. Gardner, Mary Catherine Benage, Charles M. Cannon, David L. George

Lahars, or volcanic mudflows, are the most hazardous eruption-related phenomena that will affect communities living along rivers that originate on Mount Baker. In the past 15,000 years, the largest lahars from Mount Baker have affected the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond. Here we use the physics-based D-Claw software package to model nine lahar scenarios that are initiated as water-saturated landslides between Sherman Crater and the Roman Wall on the Mount Baker edifice and flow down the Middle Fork Nooksack River. The scenarios range in volume from 1 to 260 million cubic meters and have an initial hydraulic permeability from 10⁻¹² to 10⁻¹⁰ meters squared. Model output includes data such as flow depth, velocity, runout distance, area inundated, arrival time, and sediment concentration as well as information that allows scientists to calculate other important hydrologic characteristics such as lahar discharge. These data are important to officials who have the responsibility to plan for, or take mitigation measures against, future Mount Baker lahars. To check the validity of the D-Claw results, we compare the scenarios to known geologic information. We also compare D-Claw results with empirical models that have been used in the past to determine potential inundation areas, runout distances, and arrival times. These comparisons highlight similarities and differences between empirical and physics-based models. We also present D-Claw scenario-based animations to help scientists, officials, and lay people alike to visualize how future lahars could affect communities.

Released May 12, 2025 09:46 EST

2025, PLoS ONE (20)

David A. Eads, Susan A. Shriner, Jeremy W. Ellis, Paul M. Cryan, Michelle Hladik, Gregory P. Dooley, Erin L. Muths

Ideal disease mitigation measures for wildlife are safe and benign for target species, non-target organisms, the environment, and humans. Identifying collateral (i.e., unintended) effects is a key consideration in implementing such actions. Deltamethrin dust and fipronil-laced baits represent a group of insecticides that target fleas (pulicides) and are used to control flea (Siphonaptera) vectors of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis to protect prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) and their plague-susceptible obligate predators, endangered black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes). A variety of animals use prairie dog burrows as refuge, which potentially exposes them to deltamethrin, and to fipronil and its metabolites in fecal pellets excreted by prairie dogs and other mammals that have eaten fipronil baits. We assessed the potential effects of deltamethrin and fipronil residues on survival, body mass, and activity of western tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium), a burrow-inhabiting amphibian. Pulicides were applied at realistic concentrations in mesocosms mimicking burrows. Treatments included (1) deltamethrin dust and non-treated prairie dog fecal pellets, (2) prairie dog fecal pellets containing fipronil and fipronil sulfone, and (3) un-treated prairie dog fecal pellets as controls. All 29 salamanders survived the experiment. We did not detect pulicide residues in any control salamanders. Fipronil sulfone was detected in tissues from 3 of 10 salamanders in the fipronil treatment and deltamethrin was detected in tissues from 9 of 11 salamanders in the deltamethrin treatment. Salamanders were observed outside of burrows more frequently after treatments than before. Deltamethrin concentrations in whole body samples correlated positively with the amount of time salamanders were inside burrows. Acute, lethal effects were not detected, but uptake of deltamethrin and, to a lesser extent fipronil sulfone, into salamander tissues indicated the potential for long-term effects on this non-target species. Identifying potential collateral effects is an important aspect of evaluating mitigation actions implemented to protect endangered species.

Released May 12, 2025 09:11 EST

2025, Mitochondrial DNA Part B (10) 430-436

Katy E. Klymus, Jason Coombs, Dannise Ruiz-Ramos, Aaron Maloy, Christopher M. Barnhart

Freshwater mussels of the Unionida order are important to freshwater ecosystems but are highly imperiled worldwide. Improving our understanding of these species is crucial to their continued conservation. Some Unionid mussels exhibit double uniparental inheritance (DUI) in which individuals have two mitochondrial genomes. Of those species with DUI, sequences of the female mitotype are most prevalent in genetic databases. Here, we demonstrate the ability to recover both mitotypes of Ortmanniana ligamentina (Lamarck, 1819) from a non-lethal collection method coupled with high-throughput sequencing. Increased male mitotype sequence representation facilitates understanding Unionid genetic diversity and development of molecular tools for species detection.

Released May 12, 2025 08:40 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1019

Jacob T. Murchek, Benjamin J. Drenth, James J. Reitman, Eric D. Anderson, Benjamin P. Magnin, James M. DeGraff

Gravity data require submeter elevation accuracy for data processing, and differential global navigation satellite system (dGNSS) equipment is commonly used to acquire three-dimensional positional data to achieve such accuracy. However, lidar (light detection and ranging) data are commonly used to develop digital elevation models (DEMs) of Earth’s surface. Therefore, using elevations from lidar-derived DEMs for gravity-data acquisition and reduction may improve field efficiency and reduce cost. This study examines the feasibility of using DEMs for gravity-data reduction by comparing dGNSS elevation data from 435 gravity stations in Michigan, Wyoming, and Colorado with their respective DEM elevations. The results show that the average difference between DEM and dGNSS elevations is 13 centimeters (cm) and that 93 percent of those differences are less than 50 cm, even in areas with steep terrain. Because an elevation discrepancy of 50 cm corresponds to an error of roughly 0.1 milligals (mGal) in the simple Bouguer gravity anomaly, the results suggest that lidar-derived DEMs are a viable source for acquiring the elevation data needed to process gravity data, thus improving both the cost and efficiency of data collection for regional surveys where an accuracy of less than 1.0 mGal is desired.

Released May 10, 2025 09:19 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (976)

Joshua C. Woda, Karl B. Haase, Nicholas J. Gianoutsos, Kalle Jahn, Kristina Marie Gutchess

Throughout the history of oil and gas production in the United States, millions of wells have been drilled for exploration and energy production. Hundreds of thousands of unplugged wells are no longer actively producing and are currently under orphan status, with no responsible party obligated for plugging. Orphan wells can pose threats to water resources by providing pathways for contaminants such as hydrocarbons and brines to migrate into water-supply aquifers. In this study, we investigate the potential threats to groundwater resources posed by orphan wells at the national scale. Water-quality data is extremely sparse in relation to orphan wells nationally and may not be suitable for identifying contamination from oil and gas development. We used geospatial and statistical methods to evaluate which principal and secondary aquifer systems may be most susceptible to contamination from orphan wells. Analysis involved three sets of susceptibility factors including: 1) factors related to the number and density of orphan wells; 2) factors that can threaten well integrity and contribute to transport of contaminants; and 3) factors related to groundwater withdrawal rates and the affected populations/communities in the event of water quality disturbances. From a dataset of 117,672 documented orphan wells, 64,203 fall within a principal aquifer system, while the remainder fall within a secondary aquifer system.

By assessing the combination of well integrity and hydrogeologic factors within these aquifer systems, five groupings of principal aquifers were identified, where groups ranged from aquifer systems with high numbers of orphan wells, multiple well integrity threats and high withdrawals, to aquifers with a relatively low number of orphan wells, limited well integrity threats and minimal water use. Three regions of the country emerge containing aquifers with higher susceptibility to contamination from orphan oil and gas wells. These regions include 1) The Appalachian Basin (including the Pennsylvanian Aquifer System), 2) The Gulf Coast Aquifers (including the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer system) and 3) The California Aquifers (including the California Coastal Basin Aquifer system). This work is the first multivariate geospatial investigation of orphan wells and groundwater resources on a national scale, and sheds light on which aquifers are most susceptible to groundwater contamination from orphan wells.

Released May 09, 2025 14:49 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5028

Jason K. Ramage, Alexandra C. Adams

Since the early 1900s, groundwater withdrawn from the primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers—has been an important source of water in the greater Houston area, Texas. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of water-level altitudes and water-level changes in these aquifers in the greater Houston area.

In this report, the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers are treated as a single aquifer for the purposes of providing annual assessments of regional-scale water-level altitudes and water-level changes over time. In 2024, shaded depictions of estimated water-level altitudes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers (undifferentiated) ranged from about 301 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) to about 184 ft above NAVD 88. The largest decline in water-level altitudes depicted by the 1977–2024 long-term water-level-change map was in south-central Montgomery County. In comparison, the 1990–2024 long-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines in water-level altitudes in an area northwest of The Woodlands and in an area of northern Waller County. The largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1977–2024 is depicted in an area of east-central Harris County, whereas the largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1990–2024 is depicted in an area of central Harris County. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines in several parts of the study area, but these declines are concentrated primarily in northern Fort Bend County, southwestern Harris County, and south-central Montgomery County. The largest rise for 2019–24 is depicted at a well in northern Fort Bend County. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at a well in northern Fort Bend County and a well in west-central Harris County. The largest rise for 2023–24 is depicted at a well in east-central Fort Bend County.

In 2024, shaded depictions of estimated water-level altitudes for the Jasper aquifer ranged from about 255 ft below NAVD 88 to about 321 ft above NAVD 88. The 2000–24 long-term water-level-change map depicts the largest water-level decline in an area of central San Jacinto County; the largest rise is depicted in an area of central Grimes County. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines across parts of central and southern Montgomery County and at one well in north-central Harris County. The largest rise for 2019–24 is depicted at a well centered on the Montgomery-Grimes County line. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at two wells in south-central Montgomery County and one well in northwestern Montgomery County on the west side of Lake Conroe. The largest rises during 2023–24 are depicted at one well in northwestern Montgomery County and one well in south-central Montgomery County.

Released May 09, 2025 10:36 EST

2025, Nature Scientific Reports (15)

Rae M. Taylor-Burns, Borja G. Reguero, Patrick L. Barnard, Michael W. Beck

Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas—plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as habitat benefits, but how the design of horizontal levees influences risk of levee failure remains unquantified. We use a hydrodynamic model, XBeach non-hydrostatic (XB-NH), to assess the stability and sustainability of existing levees and determine how hybrid nature-based climate adaptation measures can reduce the risk of overtopping on levees in San Francisco Bay. We compare overtopping rates in the existing levee system and in a variety of nature-based adaptation scenarios using a range of widths and slopes of horizontal levees to assess how horizontal levees perform in reducing risk of flooding, both with present day conditions and sea level rise. We show that climate change will challenge existing levee flood defenses in San Francisco Bay and increase the risk of overtopping, and that the nature-based solution of horizontal levees can meaningfully reduce risk of overtopping while simultaneously supporting marsh habitat. Flood risk reduction and habitat provision are both maximized with more gradually sloping and wider horizontal levee designs. Results show that the risk of overtopping can be reduced by up to 30% with horizontal levees. This analysis provides insight into horizontal levee design considerations and a methodological approach to adapt levees to prepare for climate change in urban wave-exposed estuaries. We show that horizontal levees can support preparation for the projected impacts of sea level rise (SLR) while simultaneously providing new intertidal wetland habitat.

Released May 09, 2025 10:12 EST

2025, Quaternary Science Advances (18)

Allyson L. Carroll, Belle E. Philibosian, Stephen C. Sillett, Marie E. Antoine, Özgür Kozaci

Sequoia sempervirens (coast redwood) tree rings have the potential to annually resolve late-Holocene earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault based on direct (e.g., physical damage) and indirect (e.g., co-seismic environmental change) impacts, but scarcity of suitable samples and challenges crossdating this long-lived species have limited progress. More precise dating of the pre-1906 (penultimate) earthquake can improve hazard assessment and understanding of rupture segmentation. We target old trees (maximum >815 yr) along the North Coast section of the fault (increment cores via rope-climbing, 11 living trees; plunge cuts, 23 stumps) and employ complementary disturbance detection methods including radial-growth averaging (tree- and series-level), cataloging anatomical indicators (e.g., traumatic resin ducts, TRD), and dating structural components (e.g., reiterated trunks, leans). Multi-centennial ring-width chronologies at Fort Ross (1569−2023) and Gualala (1397−2023) promote continued study with incomplete crossdating limiting utilization of some series. Growth pulses (reductions, releases) and TRD dispersed across the record reflect dynamic environments that obfuscate detection of earthquake signals. The 1906 earthquake did not leave strong signatures on most trees, and when it did, within-tree response varied from normal presentation to discoloration, TRD, and missing rings. Synchrony of indicators at both locations identified 1678−1680 (6 of 15 trees) and 1698−1700 (8 of 16 trees) as the strongest disturbances among dated rings in the time range of the penultimate earthquake, peaking at 1698 (15.7 % of possible growth and anatomical indicators), but the triggering mechanisms for these events are unknown.

Released May 08, 2025 12:05 EST

2025, Techniques and Methods 7-C29

Karl J. Ellefsen, Bronwen Wang, Margaret A. Goldman

Some earth science data are naturally grouped by region, and it is often desirable to map these data by region. However, if there are only a few samples within each region, then the map should be smoothed in an appropriate way to mitigate the problems that arise from having only a few samples. A smoothing algorithm based on a Bayesian hierarchical model is developed and presented in this report. This algorithm has several features that make it especially suitable for mapping earth science data: it can account for measurements that are censored, it can process multiple datasets with different measurement errors and different censoring thresholds, and it can calculate the uncertainty in any statistic that is mapped. The algorithm is demonstrated by mapping gold concentrations that are measured in streambed sediments in the Taylor Mountains quadrangle in southwestern Alaska.

Released May 08, 2025 10:13 EST

2025, PLoS ONE (20)

Joseph R. Benjamin, Judith Neibauer, Hugh Anthony, Jose Vazquez, Ashley Rawhouser, Jason B. Dunham

Assessments of species reintroductions involve a series of complex decisions that include human perspectives and ecological contexts. Here, we present a reintroduction assessment involving bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) using a structured decision-making process. We approached this assessment by engaging partners representing public utilities, government agencies, and Tribes with shared interests in a potential reintroduction. These individuals identified objectives, decision alternatives, and ecological scenarios that were incorporated into a co-produced simulation-based model of potential reintroduction outcomes. The model included mathematical representations of habitat availability, life history expression, and assumptions regarding constraints on potential bull trout populations. Within each recipient stream, partners chose to explore a wide range of decision alternatives and simulated scenarios affecting reintroduction success. Results suggested that 1) reintroductions using eggs or adults were most optimal, 2) adding more individuals resulted in diminishing returns, 3) access to migratory habitat could improve success, and 4) the diversity of opportunities for life history expression led to improved reintroduction opportunities. In addition, modeled scenarios indicated some recipient streams consistently produced lower abundance of reintroduced bull trout. This work contributes a novel example to a growing portfolio of reintroduction assessments that may inform future conservation for bull trout and many other species facing similar challenges.

Released May 08, 2025 10:02 EST

2025, Hydrological Processes (39)

Quinn Miller, David M Barnard, Megan Sears, John C. Hammond, Stephanie Kampf

Rising temperatures and shifting fire regimes in the western United States are pushing fires upslope into areas of deep winter snowpack, where we have little knowledge of the likely hydrologic impacts of wildfire. We quantified differences in the timing and magnitude of stormflow responses to summer rainstorms among six catchments of varying levels of burn severity and seasonal snowpack cover for years 1–3 after the 2020 Cameron Peak fire. Our objectives were to (1) examine whether responsiveness, magnitude, and timing of stormflow responses to rainfall vary between burned and unburned catchments and between snow zones, and (2) identify the factors that affect these responses. We evaluated whether differences in storm hydrograph peak flow, total flow, stage rise, and lag to peak time differed by snow zone and burn category using generalised linear models. Additional predictors in these models are the maximum 60-min rainfall intensity for each storm, the cumulative potential water deficit prior to the storm, and the year post-fire. These models showed that the high snow zone (HSZ) has higher total stormflow than the low snow zone (LSZ), likely due to the higher soil moisture content in that area. In both snow zones, the biggest driver of the magnitude of the stormflow response was MI₆₀. Burn category did not have a clear impact on stormflow response in the HSZ, but it did impact stage rise at the severely burned catchment in the LSZ. This was the only site that had widespread overland flow post-fire. These results demonstrate that the stormflow responses to fire vary between snow zones, indicating a need to account for elevation and snow persistence in post-fire risk assessments.

Released May 08, 2025 09:45 EST

2025, PLoS ONE (20)

Tawni B.R. Firestone, Eric R. Fetherman, Kathryn P. Huyvaert, John D. Drennan, Rebecca E. Brock, Brooke Yeatts, Dana L. Winkelman

Effective disease surveillance relies on accurate pathogen testing and robust prevalence estimates. Diagnostic specificity (DSp), the probability that an uninfected animal tests negative, is high when false positives are low. Diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) is the probability an infected animal tests positive; higher DSe means fewer false negatives. However, sensitivity and false negatives are harder to estimate without a "gold standard", an assay that can detect between 90 - 100% of true positive infections. Occupancy estimation of infection prevalence offers one solution by allowing for imperfect detection of the pathogen. Testing potentially infected tissues multiple times allows for the use of a Bayesian multistate occupancy model to estimate the probability of pathogen infection in tissues [Formula: see text] and detection probabilities [Formula: see text] for different assays. Using [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] from the posterior distribution, the conditional probability of detecting the pathogen can be modeled, allowing for the calculation of DSe. Renibacterium salmoninarum is a bacterial pathogen causing bacterial kidney disease among salmonid species and was the model pathogen we used to train our model. The current testing standard for salmonids combines initial screening for antibodies using direct fluorescent antibody test (DFAT) with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmation to detect R. salmoninarum. However, detection of R. salmoninarum still varies between species, tissues, and assays. Here, a multi-state occupancy model was used to estimate detection probability among individual and dual kidney/liver infections with DFAT and qPCR in fish with an unknown infection status. Both assays produced false negatives, but qPCR had fewer than DFAT and a higher DSe. Infection state was often misclassified, but multiple surveys per individual or combining tissues for testing improved DSe for both assays.

Released May 08, 2025 08:01 EST

2025, Diversity and Distributions (31)

Joseph Michael Eisaguirre, Layne G. Adams, Bridget Borg, Heather E. Johnson

Aim

Recent methodological advances for studying how animals move and use space with telemetry data have focused on fine-scale, more mechanistic inference. However, in many cases, researchers and managers remain interested in larger scale questions regarding species distribution and habitat use across study areas, landscapes, or seasonal ranges. Point processes offer a unified framework for many methods applied in studies of species distribution and resource selection; however, challenges remain in terms of dealing with temporal autocorrelation common in many types of telemetry data collected from animal locations.

Innovation

Space–time point processes (STPPs) have a unique property, in that marginalising time offers a connection between individual animal movement and broader point processes, yet this property has seen little attention in both statistical and applied research. In this paper, we first present some of the details of this marginalisation property and methods for applying marginalised STPPs (mSTTPs) to autocorrelated telemetry data and then apply a mSTTP in a case study on the summer space use and habitat selection of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska.

Main Conclusions

The case study demonstrated that an mSTPP approach can improve inference over other commonly used methods in terms of its ability to account for temporal autocorrelation and offers greater precision in parameter estimates and improved predictions of space use. As this method fits conveniently into the existing point process frameworks, it offers a practical solution to dealing with temporal autocorrelation inherent to many types of telemetry data when research questions center around broader scale patterns of animal habitat selection and space use.

Released May 07, 2025 11:45 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3021

Lauri A. Burke, Stanley T. Paxton, Scott A. Kinney, Nicholas J. Gianoutsos, Russell F. Dubiel, Janet K. Pitman, Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 28 million barrels of oil and 35.8 trillion cubic feet of gas in conventional and continuous accumulations within the Lower Cretaceous Hosston and Travis Peak Formations of the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast region.

Released May 07, 2025 10:26 EST

2025, JGR Biogeosciences (130)

Sommer F. Starr, Kimberly Wickland, Anne M. Kellerman, Amy M. McKenna, Martin M. Kurek, Aubrey Miller, Ariana Karsaras, Thomas A. Douglas, Rachel Mackelprang, Ashley L. Shade, Robert G.M. Spencer

Wetland and permafrost soils contain some of Earth's largest reservoirs of organic carbon, and these stores are threatened by rapid warming across the Arctic. Nearly half of northern wetlands are affected by permafrost. As these ecosystems warm, the cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the opportunities for microbial degradation are changing. This is particularly evident as the relationship between wetland and permafrost DOM dynamics evolves, especially with the introduction of permafrost-derived DOM into wetland environments. Thus, understanding the interplay of DOM composition and microbial communities from wetlands and permafrost is critical to predicting the impact of released carbon on global carbon cycling. As little is understood about the interactions between wetland active layer and permafrost-derived sources as they intermingle, we conducted experimental bioincubations of mixtures of DOM and microbial communities from two fen wetland depths (shallow: 0–15 cm, and deep: 15–30 cm) and two ages of permafrost soil (Holocene and Pleistocene). We found that the source of microbial inoculum was not a significant driver of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) degradation across treatments; rather, DOM source and specifically, DOM molecular composition, controlled the rate of DOC loss over 100 days of bioincubations. DOC loss across all treatments was negatively correlated with modified aromaticity index, O/C, and the relative abundance of condensed aromatic and polyphenolic formula, and positively correlated with H/C and the relative abundance of aliphatic and peptide-like formula. Pleistocene permafrost-derived DOC exhibited ∼70% loss during the bioincubation driven by its initial molecular-level composition, highlighting its high bioavailability irrespective of microbial source.

Released May 07, 2025 09:48 EST

2025, Seismica (2)

Madeleine C. Lucas, Anna M. Ledeczi, Harold J. Tobin, Suzanne M. Carbotte, Janet Watt, Shuoshuo Han, Brian Boston, D. Jiang

It has been previously proposed that a megasplay fault within the Cascadia accretionary wedge, spanning from offshore Vancouver Island to Oregon, has the potential to slip during a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. This hypothetical fault has major implications for tsunami size and arrival times and is included in disaster-planning scenarios currently in use in the region. This hypothesis is evaluated in this study using CASIE21 deep-penetrating and U.S. Geological Survey high-resolution seismic reflection profiles. We map changes in wedge structural style and seismic character to identify the inner-outer wedge transition zone where a megasplay fault has been previously hypothesized to exist and evaluate evidence for active faulting within this zone. Our results indicate that there is not an active, through-going megasplay fault in Cascadia, but instead, the structure and activity of faulting at the inner-outer wedge transition zone is highly variable and segmented along strike, consistent with the segmentation of other physical and mechanical properties in Cascadia. Wedge sedimentation, plate dip, and subducting topography are proposed to play a major role in controlling megasplay fault development and evolution. Incorporating updated megasplay fault location, geometry, and activity into modeling of Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis could help better constrain associated hazards.

Released May 06, 2025 09:26 EST

2025, Frontiers in Freshwater Science (3)

Michael Quist, Shannon Blackburn, Marta Ulaski, Zachary Jackson

Introduction: The Sacramento-San Joaquin River system (SSJ) of California includes both riverine, delta, and estuarine habitats and is among the most modified aquatic ecosystems in the United States. Water development projects in the system are associated with declines of many native species, including White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus.

Methods: We used White Sturgeon pectoral fin rays collected from 1983 to 2016 throughout the SSJ to assess long-term changes in growth and associations with thermal and hydrological conditions (i.e., temperature, discharge, salinity). Age and growth were estimated from 1,897 White Sturgeon varying in fork length from 25 to 210 cm and from age 0 to 33.

Results: Age structure varied through time with the oldest fish generally sampled during the mid-1980s. Growth of White Sturgeon in 1951–1970 was slower than growth of fish in 1971–1990 and 1991–2012. Growth of White Sturgeon during 1991–2012 was ~10% higher than during other time periods.

Discussion: Little variation in growth was explained by environmental covariates, suggesting that annual growth was likely influenced by factors not measured in our study. Alternatively, population structure and movement behavior of White Sturgeon in the SSJ may be such that the scale (i.e., spatial or temporal) of available habitat covariates was mismatched to the scale at which growth of White Sturgeon responds. Increased growth in recent times may be partly due to density-dependent processes in association with substantial declines in White Sturgeon population abundance over the last several decades. This research provides important information on long-term patterns in growth that contributes to the conservation and management of White Sturgeon in the SSJ and beyond.

Released May 06, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Freshwater Biology (70)

V. Tran-Khac, J.P. Doubek, Vijay P. Patil, J.D. Stockwell, R. Adrian, C.-W. Change, G. Dur, A. Lewandowska, J.A. Rusak, N. Salmaso, D. Straile, S.J. Thackeray, P. Venail, R. Bhattacharya, J. Brentrup, R. Bruel, H. Feuchtmayr, M.O. Gessner, H-P. Grossart, B.W. Ibelings, S. Jacquet, S. MacIntyre, S.S. Matsuzaki, E. Nodine, P. Nõges, L.G. Rudstam, F. Soulignac, P. Verburg, P. Znachor, T. Zohary, O. Anneville

1. Extreme meteorological events such as storms are increasing in frequency and intensity, but our knowledge of their impacts on aquatic ecosystems and emergent system properties is limited. Understanding the ecological impacts of storms on the dynamics of primary producers remains a challenge that needs to be addressed to assess the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to extreme weather conditions and climate change.

2. One promising approach to gain insights into storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics is to analyse long-term monitoring datasets. However, such an approach requires disentangling the impacts of short-term meteorological disturbances from the effects of the seasonal trajectories of meteorological conditions. To this end, we applied boosted regression tree models to phytoplankton time series from eight relatively large lakes on four continents, coupled with a procedure adapted to detect and quantify rare events.

3. Overall, the patterns and potential drivers we identified provide important insights into the responses of lakes to short-term meteorological events and highlight differences in the response of phytoplankton communities according to lake morphological characteristics. Our results indicated that deepened thermoclines and lake-specific combinations of drivers describing altered thermal structures caused deviations from the typical trajectories of seasonal phytoplankton succession. For shallow polymictic lakes, shifts in phytoplankton succession also depended on changes in light availability.

4. Overall, our study highlights the value of long-term monitoring to improve our understanding of phytoplankton sensitivity to short-term meteorological disturbances.

Released May 06, 2025 08:52 EST

2025, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (26)

Margaret Susan Avery, Anthony Francis Pivarunas

Flood basalts of the mid-Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) cover 210,000 km² of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The source of CRBG melt is debated; widely spaced feeder dike swarms can be projected toward hypothetical sources near the Oregon-Idaho border. In this study, we use anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) to track magma flow in the Monument dike swarm (MDS), the feeder dikes of the Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB). This small formation of the main-phase CRBG eruptions allows us to explore in detail the localized dynamics of a large igneous province feeder system, with implications for the larger CRBG picture. We measured the magnetic fabric of 205 oriented paleomagnetic specimens subsampled from 97 samples collected from 15 dikes of the MDS. Thermal demagnetization and hysteresis loops show that the magnetic minerals are a mixture of single domain and multidomain sized titanomagnetites. At three dikes, the paleodepth of sampling was determined to be shallow (<350 m). Magma flowing through dikes has been shown—in most cases— to acquire an anisotropic magnetic fabric with an AMS ellipsoid minimum axis perpendicular to the wall and maximum axis aligned in the direction of flow. Of 15 dikes, 12 show horizontal flow directions in the plane of the dike. Only one dike displayed imbricated fabrics, showing westward flow away from the Oregon-Idaho border. We conclude that magma flow in the MDS was sub-horizontal from a distal source.

Released May 06, 2025 08:31 EST

2025, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Jacob C. Dickey, Benjamin J. Clemens, Michael Dumelle, Melanie J. Davis

Objective

Lampreys are an ecologically important group of fishes. Several species are imperiled and lack key distribution and habitat data. The terminal Goose Lake Basin, U.S.A. is home to two such species, the Goose Lake Lamprey, Entosphenus sp. (formally undescribed), and the Pit-Klamath Brook Lamprey, E. lethophagus. Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful for identifying key habitats; however, SDMs are subject to accuracy impairments caused by scale mismatches and spatial autocorrelation—both exacerbated by the hierarchical structure of dendritic stream networks. Our goal was to relate lamprey presence–absence to ecological drivers and predict the distribution of lampreys across the Goose Lake Basin.

Methods

Using a dataset pooling approach, we integrated count and presence–absence data from five surveys and relevant habitat variables from publicly available, geospatial datasets to build logistic regression models. To account for potential mismatches of scale, we compared three sample grains for slope and sinuosity (i.e., stream segment lengths: 250, 500, and 1,000 m), and two scales of elevation (site and watershed). We accounted for spatial autocorrelation by incorporating network-based and Euclidean spatial dependencies using a spatial stream network (SSN) modeling approach. Using the best-fit spatial and non-spatial models, we predicted basin-wide lamprey distribution.

Result

Flow, sinuosity at our largest sample grain (1,000 m), and watershed-scale elevation were positively associated with lamprey presence, whereas slope was negatively associated. The non-spatial model predicted lamprey presence among sinuous, low-gradient streams, whereas the spatial model, which identified Euclidean and flow-connected spatial relationships, predicted contiguous patches with a high probability of occurrence near areas with previously observed presences.

Conclusions

Our study revealed ecological relationships and produced an accurate basinwide SDM. Prediction and inference improved after accounting for spatial relationships across multiple scales. Developing accurate and efficient modeling strategies that incorporate the hierarchical structure inherent to stream ecosystems aids in the management and conservation of native fishes such as lampreys.

Released May 06, 2025 08:30 EST

2025, Preprint, BioRxiv

Gavin G. Cotterill, Douglas A. Keinath, Tabitha A. Graves

Bayesian hierarchical models are ubiquitous in ecology. Random effect model structures are often employed that treat individual effects as deviations from larger population-level effects. In this way individuals are assumed to be "exchangeable" samples. Ecologists may address this exchangeability assumption intuitively, but might in certain modeling contexts ignore it altogether, including in situations where it may have large implications for study design. Multispecies occupancy models based on detection/non-detection data are an approach that can be utilized by those tasked with monitoring rare and endangered species because most literature suggests that, compared to single species occupancy models, improved parameter estimates are assured. Yet, we illustrate through a power analysis how sampling requirements to detect experimental treatment effects vary tremendously depending on whether the species exchangeability assumption is met. The degree to which species in a community respond similarly to covariates governs the ability to accurately estimate parameters using multispecies occupancy models. Detecting small or moderate changes in occupancy resulting from habitat restoration treatments may be impossible for small datasets (e.g., < 36 sampling locations, each surveyed < 8 times) even with a paired treatment-control design if the exchangeability assumption is violated. By contrast, when the assumption is met, small effects may be confidently estimated with as few as 12 sampling locations (6 pairs) and 6-8 survey events. Often, it may be impossible to know whether the exchangeability assumption is met. The statistical power needed to accurately estimate species-specific effects using detection/non-detection multispecies occupancy models depends on the unknown values of treatment effects and whether responses by species in the community diverge. When the species exchangeability assumption is violated, and at lower levels of sampling effort, multispecies occupancy models may provide worse inference than single species occupancy models.

Released May 06, 2025 07:52 EST

2025, International Journal of Coal Geology (306)

Xiaowei Zheng, Hamed Sanei, Fujie Jiang, Qingyong Luo, Yewei Wang, Jennifer Nedzweckas, Brett J. Valentine, M. Rebecca Stokes, Liu Cao, Paul C. Hackley

A series of gold tube pyrolysis experiments (72 h, 300–550 °C, 50 MPa) conducted on a graptolite-rich lower Paleozoic marine shale generated pyrolysis residues for a comprehensive evaluation of the molecular and structural variability of three types of graptolite periderm. Organic petrology, Raman spectroscopy, and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) were combined to evaluate the thermal evolution process. The three types of graptolite periderm, namely granular, non-granular, and nodular graptolite, were analyzed by Raman spectroscopy wherein point measurements were obtained after the maceral was identified and the location verified by organic petrology. Distinct thermal evolution pathways among non-granular, granular, and nodular graptolite periderms were recorded. The evolution patterns of the Raman parameters, particularly D1 and G bands, highlight the differences in geochemical composition of the graptolite periderm types and the alteration of molecular structure with increasing thermal maturity. Raman parameters D1 (position of the D1 peak), G-FWHM (full width at half maximum of the G peak), and ratios D1-FWHM/G-FWHM (full width at half maximum of the D1 peak ratioed to G-FWHM) and A_D1/A_G (ratio of D1 and G peak intensities) showed effectiveness in assessing thermal maturity. Bireflectance with increasing gold tube pyrolysis temperature followed a hierarchy: non-granular > granular > nodular, reflecting different molecular alignment intensities. Qualitative FE-SEM evaluation showed that fine-grained mineral inclusions (primarily Fe-sulfide as determined via EDS) were associated with the graptolite populations, with granular graptolite containing greater amounts of coarser-grained (e.g., ∼300–1400 nm) mineral inclusions relative to non-granular and nodular graptolite, which contain finer-grained (e.g., ∼100–200 nm) inclusions difficult to resolve with optical microscopy. These findings are investigated to highlight the mechanisms that drive organic matter evolution within graptolite during thermal maturation, as well as to explore some of the limitations of using spectroscopic parameters as thermal maturity proxies.

Released May 05, 2025 13:15 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5030

Brian A. Varela, Marc L. Buursink

Hydrocarbon wells are not active forever; when they become permanently disused (abandoned), well infrastructure must be remediated or repurposed. Knowing which wells are abandoned is the initial and often complicated step in taking responsibility for well infrastructure. Each State creates laws and regulates hydrocarbon operations, which includes well abandonment. The existence of multiple regulating authorities means definitions of abandonment are mostly found in legal documents are broadly defined or other terms are used. This report presents a technical approach to defining hydrocarbon well abandonment using well production data and identifies abandoned hydrocarbon wells using the new definition.

Released May 05, 2025 10:17 EST

2025, Bulletin of Volcanology (87)

Emily A. Rhoads, Anton Kutyrev, Ilya N. Bindeman, Kendra J. Lynn, Frank A. Trusdell, Drew T. Downs, Hunter R. Edwards, Geoffrey W. Cook, James M.D. Day

Mauna Loa is one of the largest and most active volcanoes on Earth. The most recent eruption of Mauna Loa started on 27 November 2022, lasted for 13 days, and was preceded by the longest repose time of 38 years in its modern history. In this contribution, new trace- and highly siderophile-element (HSE: Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, Pd, Re) abundances, ¹⁸⁷Re-¹⁸⁷Os, and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O data are reported for the 2022 lavas. These lavas have a limited range of MgO (6.2 ± 0.1 wt.%) and Ni (83 ± 2 µg/g), with a broader range of Re (0.3 to 1.3 ng/g) and consistent Os (0.031 to 0.080 ng/g) contents. They have ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios (0.1345 to 0.1385) which are, on average, more radiogenic than Mauna Loa picrites (0.1331 to 0.1349) and are similar in composition to more differentiated Mauna Loa tholeiite lavas (0.1340 to 0.1381). The oxygen isotope compositions of glassy samples are 5.35 ± 0.15‰ (n = 13) and span a range in δ¹⁸O of + 5.0 to + 5.5‰, with an average composition 0.2 to 0.3‰ lower than MORB. The δD value is − 81 ± 11‰ (n = 5) at very low (0.03 ± 0.015 wt.%) H₂O concentrations. The 2022 Mauna Loa eruption is similar in terms of δ¹⁸O but contrasts in terms of ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os variability, with the recent longer-lived eruptions on La Palma (Canary Islands; 85 days) in 2021 and on the Reykjanes Peninsula (Iceland) that began in 2021 and are still ongoing. Initial lavas were more fractionated for both the Canary Islands and Iceland eruptions, producing more radiogenic Os isotope compositions than later erupted products. The 2022 Mauna Loa eruption showed no such trends. The limited range in isotope compositions of the 2022 Mauna Loa lavas and their strongly fractioned HSE patterns reflect long-term storage, crystal fractionation, and assimilation of related basaltic volcanic edifice materials by the parent magma beneath the volcano prior to eruption triggering. Eruption of differentiated and homogeneous tholeiite lavas at the summit caldera and high on the volcano’s flank, with emplacement of accumulative picrites lower on the volcano, are consistent with neutral buoyancy arguments.

Released May 05, 2025 09:05 EST

2025, Preprint

Julia C. Geue, Laura D. Bertola, Paulette Bloomer, Anna Brüniche-Olsen, Jessica M. da Silva, J. Andrew DeWoody, Ancuta Fedorca, José A. Godoy, Catherine E. Grueber, Margaret Hunter, Christina Hvilsom, Isa-Rita M. Russo, Evelyn L. Jensen, Alexander Kopatz, Anna J. MacDonald, Silvia Pérez-Espona, Antoinette J. Piaggio, Jennifer C. Pierson, Helen Senn, Gernot Segelbacher, Paul Sunnucks, Cock van Oosterhout, Deborah M. Leigh

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) sets global conservation standards, including the Red List of Threatened Species and the Green Status of Species. Recent analyses showed that genetic diversity has not been effectively considered by IUCN species assessments, despite being fundamental to species’ fitness and adaptive potential. Incorporation of genetic diversity into IUCN assessments can support its successful long-term conservation. To enhance the preservation of genetic diversity, assessments should include genetically meaningful within-species units. Subpopulations are recognized units by the IUCN for protecting natural connectivity, however infrequently evaluated. Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) are currently not recognized as a formal unit by the IUCN. However, incorporating ESUs into conservation frameworks could significantly enhance our capacity to identify and protect adaptive genetic diversity. To facilitate inclusion of these units in IUCN assessments, we outline a widely applicable framework for their identification that uses non-molecular and molecular data for global accessibility.

Released May 04, 2025 13:38 EST

2025, Hydrological Processes (39)

J. Renée Brooks, Henry M. Johnson, Keira R. Johnson, Steven P. Cline, Randy Comeleo, WIlliam Rugh, Lisandra Trine

Snowpacks are an important water source for mountainous rivers, worldwide. The timing and volume of streamflow in systems reliant on snowmelt can be affected by changes in snow accumulation and melt time. In the Cascade Range (western USA), seasonal snowpacks are predicted to decrease by over 50% within the next century. During the last decade, Cascade Range snowpacks have varied between 17% and 150% of the median 1981–2023 peak snowpack values. To understand how snowpack variation could affect Willamette River streamflow, we monitored water stable isotopes over 13 years from two sites on the mainstem and 60 streams draining small catchments across the Willamette River Basin. Small catchment water stable isotope values integrated and dampened variation in precipitation isotopes and varied with elevation, providing a marker for determining the mean elevation from which streamflow in the Willamette River was derived. During winter, while snow accumulates in the mountains, most streamflow in the Willamette River originates from rainfall at lower elevations. During summer low-flow conditions, most streamflow in the river was derived from winter snow that accumulated at elevations above 1200 m, which represents < 12% of the Willamette River Basin area. Peak snow water equivalent from the previous winter was positively correlated with the proportion of Willamette River streamflow derived from > 1200 m during the summer low-flow period, but both high elevation (> 1200 m) precipitation and temperature trends explained nearly as much variance as snow water equivalent. However, after accounting for climate trends, the estimated amount of high-elevation streamflow in the Willamette River during summer low-flow has decreased over the past 13 years. Improved understanding of the origin of, and trends in, summer streamflow in the Willamette River will aid in reconciling human demands with biological instream requirements during periods of low snowpack.

Released May 03, 2025 11:14 EST

2025, JGR Planets (130)

Erica Luzzi, Jennifer L. Heldmann, Kaj E. Williams, Giacomo Nodjoumi, Ariel Deutsch, Alexander Sehlke

This work presents geomorphological analyses of an area at the boundary between Arcadia Planitia and northern Amazonis Planitia, situated in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars. Recent studies have indicated the presence of substantial volumes of near-surface excess ice in Arcadia Planitia, making this region a promising candidate for future human and robotic exploration. This study focuses on three specific candidate landing sites adjacent to the Arcadia Planitia: AP-1, AP-8, and AP-9. We have identified a wide range of ice-related morphologies, providing further evidence for the occurrence of excess ice in the study area. We have mapped and measured ∼9,000 thermal contraction polygons. We estimate ice beneath these polygons to be on the order of tens of cm from the surface, which is sufficiently shallow to be accessible for potential in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Recent impact craters that have been excavated into ice further suggest the presence of near-surface ice. Finally, the occurrence of ice and processes such as ice sublimation are likely responsible for the formation and subsequent modification of several observed features, including expanded craters, brain coral terrain, arcuate ridges, and thermal contraction polygons modified by sublimation. These results provide valuable insights into the ice distribution in the northern mid-latitudes and support the potential utilization of accessible ice resources for future human exploration efforts.

Released May 03, 2025 09:11 EST

2025, Water Resources Research (616)

Joshua Culpepper, Sapna Sharma, Grant Gunn, Madeline Magee, Michael Frederick Meyer, Eric Anderson, Christoper D. Arp, Sarah Cooley, Wayana Dolan, Hilary Dugan, Claude R. Duguay, Benjamin C. Jones, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Matti Lepparanta, Di Long, John J. Magnuson, Tamlin Pavelsky, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Dale M. Robertson, Bethel Steele, Manu Tom, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, R. Iesytn Woolway, Marguerite A. Xenopoulos, Xiao Yang

The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates the rapid advancement of understanding and the incorporation of lakes on both landscape and global scales. Three fields driving innovation within winter limnology that we address here are autonomous real-time in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling. The recent progress in low-power in situ sensing and data telemetry allows continuous tracing of under-ice processes in selected lakes as well as the development of global lake observational networks. Remote sensing offers consistent monitoring of numerous systems, allowing limnologists to ask certain questions across large scales. Models are advancing and historically come in different types (process-based or statistical data-driven), with the recent technological advancements and integration of machine learning and hybrid process-based/statistical models. Lake ice modeling enhances our understanding of lake dynamics and allows for projections under future climate warming scenarios. To encourage the merging of technological innovation within limnological research of the less-studied winter period, we have accumulated both essential details on the history and uses of contemporary sampling, remote sensing, and modeling techniques. We crafted 100 questions in the field of winter limnology that aim to facilitate the cross-pollination of intensive and extensive modes of study to broaden knowledge of the winter period.

Released May 02, 2025 13:48 EST

2025, Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Bria Bleil, Elise F. Granek, Michelle Hladik

Pesticides are used globally for a wide range of applications including agricultural, forestry, roadsides, freshwater systems, and personal use. While pesticides have ensured efficient crop production, they are frequently transported away from application sites and are found in almost all terrestrial and aquatic environments. Pesticides are frequently detected in watersheds and rivers, but there is limited research on pesticide presence in United States (U.S.) marine environments. To address these data gaps, this study documents pesticide occurrence in U.S. coastal waters, providing new understanding of pesticide contamination in offshore environments. Polar organic chemical integrative samples (POCIS) were deployed at five sites along the Oregon, U.S. coast to examine the occurrence of pesticides. Between two and seven different pesticides were detected at every site, with herbicides diuron, and atrazine, and fungicides carbendazim, propiconazole, and tebuconazole being the most frequently detected at three sites. The prevalence of herbicides and fungicides in coastal waters indicates a connection between terrestrial pesticide practices and marine contamination. These findings provide new insights into the presence of pesticides in coastal nearshore and offshore waters and suggest that a comprehensive monitoring effort could enhance our understanding of sources, transport, and pesticide risks for marine species both nearshore and offshore.

Released May 02, 2025 10:46 EST

2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Rachel E. Abercrombie, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Shanna Chu, Taka'aki Taira, Dino Bindi, Oliver S. Boyd, Xiaowei Chen, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Emma Devin, Douglas Dreger, William Ellsworth, Fan Wenyuan, Rebecca Harrington, Yihe Huang, Kilian Kemna, Meichen Liu, Adrien Oth, Grace Alexandra Parker, Colin Pennington, Matteo Picozzi, Christine J. Ruhl, Peter Shearer, Daniele Spallarossa, Daniel Trugman, Ian Vandevert, Qimin Wu, Clara Yoon, Ellen Yu, Gregory C. Beroza, Tom Eulenfeld, Trey Knudson, Kevin Mayeda, Paola Morasca, James S. Neely, Jorge I. Roman-Nieves, Claudio Satriano, Mariano Supino, William R. Walter, Ralph Archuleta, Gail Marie Atkinson, Giovanna Calderoni, Chen Ji, Hongfeng Yang, Jiewen Zhang

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress‐drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude‐spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress‐drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two‐week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. In this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite‐fault modeling, ground‐motion‐based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between‐method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress‐drop values.

Released May 02, 2025 10:00 EST

2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Rachel E. Abercrombie, Adrien Oth, Takahiko Uchide

Earthquake source parameters such as magnitude, seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated energy are fundamental to understanding earthquake physics, and are also key ingredients in earthquake ground‐motion modeling, rupture simulation, and statistical seismology. However, the uncertainties in these parameters estimated from the radiated seismic wavefield are large due to variability in approaches, including site and attenuation characterizations, and so estimates for an individual earthquake made by different studies can vary greatly. Estimating spectral source parameters remains a popular topic, due to a combination of their intrinsic importance and their apparent ease of measurement, but also a controversial one, due to many sources of variability and large uncertainty. The available methods coupled with necessary parameter choices and assumptions in the analysis make it challenging for researchers to apply methods or understand the reliability in results or reported source parameters. This Special Section on Improving Measurements of Earthquake Source Parameters showcasing comparisons between methods and studies seeks to alleviate some of these difficulties to help the community identify the important components and trade‐offs of decomposing recorded seismograms into their source, path, and site components.

Released May 02, 2025 08:57 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1018

Frederick Feyrer, Matthew J. Young, Brock Huntsman, Veronica Violette, Justin K. Clause, Jordan Buxton, Danielle Palm, Marissa L. Wulff, Jeff Gronemyer, Luis Santana

The Clear Lake Hitch (Lavinia exilicauda chi) is a minnow endemic to Clear Lake, Lake County, California. This species is listed as a threatened species under the California Endangered Species Act and has been petitioned for listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, initiated a Clear Lake Hitch monitoring program to generate information annually on relative abundance and size structure. The monitoring program was organized around a conceptual life cycle diagram, focused on life stages approximately ≥1 year of age, and incorporated a probabilistic study design involving approximately 10 days of short-duration (approximately 40 minutes) gillnet sampling undertaken during daytime. This report documents monitoring program activities from 2017 to 2023 and presents the results of an evaluation of the monitoring program. The evaluation was done after the 2023 sampling event, following 6 years of implementation, which is the approximate generation cycle of Clear Lake Hitch. The results of the evaluation indicated the following: (1) gillnets used in the monitoring program were effective at capturing Clear Lake Hitch aged 1 year or more; (2) the study design was effective at generating the information needed to characterize Clear Lake Hitch relative abundance and size structure, and meaningful operational efficiencies can be obtained by implementing simple changes; and (3) future sampling can be scaled to approximately 4–7 days of effort and maintain at least 80-percent confidence in detecting at least a 25-percent change in abundance, assuming past work productivity is maintained and future data are typical of previous data.

Released May 02, 2025 08:57 EST

2025, Landslides

Maciej Obryk, Emily Christina Bedinger, Alexandra M. Iezzi, Emily H Bryant, Kate E. Allstadt, David L. George, Benjamin B. Mirus

Mass movements such as debris flows and landslides are some of the deadliest and most destructive natural hazards occurring mostly in alpine and volcanic settings. With ever-growing populations located downslope from known debris flow channels, early warning systems can help prevent loss of life. Geophysical and technological advances have improved monitoring and detection capabilities in recent years; however, they can often be cost prohibitive and resource intensive, making them less accessible to disadvantaged populations. We tested and validated a readily available and cost-effective two-dimensional swath laser rangefinder in a controlled experimental setting against two independent flow-depth lasers. The swath laser successfully recorded cross-sectional changes in flow depth from four debris flows and a water-only flood, in addition to geomorphic changes associated with landslide initiation. The results suggest that a swath laser could be integrated into systems for debris flow detection and characterization of mass movements in natural settings, thus improving the ability to monitor these hazards.

Released May 02, 2025 08:37 EST

2025, Geology

Kathleen B. Springer, Adam M. Hudson, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Katharine W. Huntington, Andrew J. Schauer

Multiple generations of spring-fed streams traversed ∼800 km² of the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada between ca. 10.9 ka and 8.5 ka, depositing an extensive tufa network. The scale of this network and diversity of tufa morphologies is novel in North America and offers an opportunity to obtain quantitative paleoclimate data for the region during the early Holocene. We determined isotopic compositions and estimated past temperatures using clumped isotope data from early Holocene tufa on the valley floor (698 m) as well as tufa forming today at higher elevation in the nearby Spring Mountains at Cold Creek Spring (1856 m). Modern and fossil tufa yielded comparably low δ¹⁸O values, implying that source waters for both were derived from high-elevation winter precipitation. Clumped isotope temperatures of modern tufa average 15.8 ± 2.5 °C, aligning with mean summer temperatures of the emergent spring water, and indicate equilibrium conditions of tufa formation. The early Holocene tufa yielded similar clumped isotope temperatures, averaging 15.2 ± 3.9 °C, meaning it precipitated at temperatures that occur at much higher elevations today. The Las Vegas tufa record, combined with nearby and temporally correlative paleospring and lacustrine records, suggest that cool/wet conditions prevailed throughout the Mojave Desert during the early Holocene. These records also demonstrate that spring ecosystems responded to millennial-scale hydroclimate variations that supersede climate change driven solely by insolation. The previously unrecognized pattern of ecosystem response to hydroclimate documented here may assist in understanding climate drivers for the early Holocene and provide critical information for the fate of groundwater-dependent ecosystems in the southwestern United States.

Released May 02, 2025 08:20 EST

2025, Water Research (275)

Joel P. Stokdyk, Aaron Firnstahl, Kenneth R. Bradbury, Maureen A. Muldoon, Burney A Kieke, Mark A. Borchardt

Household well water can be degraded by contaminants from the land's surface, but private well owners lack means to protect the source water from neighboring disturbances. Rural residents of southwestern Wisconsin, USA, rely on private well water, and the combination of land use and fractured carbonate bedrock makes groundwater vulnerable to contamination. To identify the extent, sources, and risk factors of private well contamination, randomly selected wells sampled during two-day periods in fall (n = 301) and spring (n = 529) were analyzed for nitrate and indicator bacteria, and a subset (n = 138) was sampled across four seasonal events for analysis of pathogens and microbial source tracking markers by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors representing land use, hydrology, geology, and well construction were analyzed for associations with contamination in multivariable models. The importance of risk factors varied by contaminant, illustrating the multifaceted nature of rural groundwater quality. Nitrate contamination was associated with agricultural land use, and wells with casings that extended below a shale aquitard accessed less contaminated water than those drawing water from above it. Human fecal microbes were detected in 64 wells (46%), and rainfall was the key risk factor for contamination, indicating that wastewater from septic systems was available to contaminate wells when transport conditions were favorable. Manure microbes from cattle/ruminants and pigs were detected in 33 and 13 wells, respectively, and concentrations increased with the hectarage of cultivated land near wells. Pathogen genes for viruses, bacteria, and protozoa were detected in 66 wells (48%), including more detections of zoonotic than human-specific pathogens, and human Bacteroides, an indicator of wastewater, was an equivocal predictor of pathogen presence in private wells. Characterizing important elements of the setting, like geology, and identifying sources and risk factors for contaminants can inform landscape-level policies to protect groundwater quality.

Released May 02, 2025 08:02 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5034

Sara B. Levin

Traditional flood frequency methods assume that the statistical properties of peak streamflow do not change with time and may not be appropriate for many areas in the north-central United States. This study examines a nonstationary flood frequency analysis method that uses ordinary least squares linear regression to estimate flood magnitudes at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages that exhibit trends and change points in a nine-State region including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Michigan. Additionally, an extension of this method is introduced, which enables nonstationary flood frequency based on a statistical relation with a stochastic climate predictor.

Estimates of the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood using regression equations to adjust for conditions in 2020 were computed at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across the study area. Regression equations used either a time index or a climate variable as the explanatory variable for changes in peak streamflow. Of 153 candidate streamgages, the assumptions of time-adjusted analyses were met at 137 streamgages. Climate-adjusted flood frequency analyses were applicable at 98 streamgages based on annual precipitation, annual temperature, or annual snowfall. Time- and climate-adjusted methods produced similar estimates of the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude at streamgages where both methods were applicable. Nonstationary estimates of the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood were primarily greater than stationary estimates in eastern North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and parts of Missouri and less than stationary estimates in Montana, western North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The largest differences between stationary and nonstationary flood estimates were in North and South Dakota and Minnesota.

Released May 02, 2025 08:01 EST

2025, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (461)

Claire J. Horwell, Helen M. Emerson, Paul Ashwell, David Damby, Steve Self, Claire Nattrass, Rebecca J. Carey, Bruce F. Houghton

The rhyolitic Kaharoa 1315 CE eruption was a complex, long-lived event from Tarawera volcano, New Zealand. Explosive phases were followed by around 5 years of lava dome extrusion and collapse which produced block-and-ash flows (BAF). Lava domes generate crystalline silica in the form of cristobalite, and rhyolitic magmas often contain quartz phenocrysts. Fine-grained ash containing crystalline silica can be formed through dome collapses or explosions, generating a respiratory health hazard for communities affected by ashfall. The aims of this study are to: i) determine whether the Kaharoa eruption dome-forming phase generated substantial quantities of crystalline silica and, therefore, to determine the potential for future dome-forming eruptions of Tarawera to do the same; ii) consider the potential hazard of the crystalline silica by studying the crystal habit and chemistry compared to other lava domes, globally; and iii) assess the particle size and crystalline silica content of the Kaharoa ash, to inform a respiratory hazard assessment.

Five co-BAF ash samples and one co-ignimbrite (explosive) ash sample from the Kaharoa pyroclastic deposits were analysed for health-pertinent factors: particle size distribution and crystalline silica content. Eight dome-rock samples were collected from the dome complex and associated BAF deposits and groundmass texture (especially forms of crystalline silica) and quantity of crystalline silica were assessed.

Cristobalite was present in the 4 ash samples analysed by X-ray diffraction (XRD; 1.3–3.7 wt%) as was quartz (5.7–12.5 wt%). For the 4 dome samples analysed by XRD, all samples contained quartz (4.1–10.4 wt%) and two contained significant quantities of cristobalite (24.7 and 27.3 wt%). Of the two dome samples with minimal cristobalite (visible as individual vapour-phase crystals by SEM but not quantifiable by XRD), one was from the non-devitrified dome carapace and the other was from the compacted interior but had not undergone devitrification. The two dome samples with substantial cristobalite were from dome interiors and were highly devitrified, with well-developed spherulitic textures. Using energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, cristobalite in all samples contained minor aluminium, as has been seen for volcanic cristobalite from other lava domes, which may ameliorate its toxicity. By laser diffraction, the quantities of ash in the health pertinent size fractions varied, with a range of 1.3–8.1 vol% for particles of <4 μm diameter and 1.7–15.6 vol% for particles of <10 μm diameter, which is lower than measured in ash from large-scale dome collapse events at other volcanoes.

The findings suggest a potential for substantial crystalline silica to be formed in future Kaharoa-style eruptions, but that cristobalite generation is site-specific, depending on location within the dome and whether the dome remains sufficiently hot for spherulite formation and glass devitrification. Respiratory hazard will therefore vary depending on the collapse of (or explosions through) individual lobes – although all lava is expected to contain quartz phenocrysts – as well as the size and energy of those collapses, which will influence particle size and quantity of ash generated and dispersed.

Released May 01, 2025 13:59 EST

2025, Report

Darryl W. Hondorp, Robin L. DeBruyne, Cory Brant, Peter C. Esselman, Timothy P. O'Brien

The U. S. Geological Survey-Great Lakes Science Center has monitored annual changes in the offshore (depth > 9m) prey fish community of Lake Huron since 1973. Monitoring of prey fish populations in Lake Huron is based on a bottom trawl survey that targets demersal species (i.e., those predominantly or intermittently associated with the lake bottom) and an acoustic-midwater trawl survey that targets pelagic species and life stages. Prey fish abundance and species composition in 2024 was generally consistent with trends observed over the past decade. Bloater (Coregonus hoyi) remains the most abundant and widespread prey species, although its abundance is starting to decline owing to changes in demographic factors that are interacting to suppress reproduction. Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax) remain widely distributed across Lake Huron but their dynamics vary by basin. Rainbow Smelt populations currently are larger in Georgian Bay and the North Channel than in the main basin where they have produced eight weak year classes over the past decade including in 2024. Populations of Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) continue to be comprised of low numbers of age-0 individuals, and sculpin communities consist primarily of Deepwater Sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii) due to the reduced abundance and distribution of Slimy Sculpin (Cottus cognatus). In contrast, biomass of the invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in 2024 was the highest observed in the bottom trawl time series and was over four times greater than in 2023. Overall status of main basin prey fish community was rated as ‘fair.’ Stable dynamics of main basin Bloater populations and evidence of continued recovery by Cisco (Coregonus artedi) in the North Channel were interpreted as positive community trends, whereas growth and expansion of Round Goby populations and low species diversity of pelagic prey fish communities are inconsistent with fish community objectives. Use of complementary surveys (bottom trawl, acoustics) remains useful for evaluating prey fish status in Lake Huron, where prey fish community dynamics vary by basin and prey fish responses to changing environmental conditions depend on species and/or habitat.

Released May 01, 2025 13:04 EST

2025, Water Research (271)

Michael Attia, Frank T.-C. Tsai, Shuo Yang, Burke J. Minsley, Wade H. Kress

Coastal Louisiana is known for saltwater intrusion that threatens wetlands, aquifers, and rivers. However, the extent of saltwater intrusion is not well understood. This study develops an innovative framework with airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to map chloride concentration distributions for wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain and Chenier plain as well as for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) and Chicot aquifer. Moreover, the framework maps chloride concentrations along the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River. Key components in the framework include the establishment of resistivity-to-chloride concentration transformation, 3D resistivity architecture building through geostatistics, and the employment of a lithologic model. The transformation functions correlate AEM resistivity data with porewater salinity measurements and groundwater and river chloride samples. The results show that AEM data reliably infers soil water chloride concentrations and correlates well with the distribution of various marsh types. AEM data reveals extensive saltwater presence at depth and near the coast, originating from salt domes and the Gulf of Mexico, respectively. The saltwater upconing pattern in the Chicot aquifer is likely due to excessive groundwater withdrawals. The AEM data also confirms a distinct tongue of saltwater intruding into the Atchafalaya Basin from the Gulf. The AEM data helps to identify faults that are obscured or eroded at the surface, which appear as leaky barriers in the subsurface where dramatic changes in chloride concentration are apparent. Finally, this study uses the AEM data to infer the presence of an extensive seawater wedge in the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River.

Released May 01, 2025 11:15 EST

2025, Circular 1551

Adrian Pierre-Frederic Monroe, Jason S. Alexander, Eric D. Anderson, Patrick J. Anderson, William J. Andrews, Jessica M. Driscoll, Rebecca J. Frus, Joseph A. Hevesi, Daniel K. Jones, Kathryn A. Thomas, Anne C. Tillery, Alicia Torregrosa, Katharine G. Dahm

Ongoing, prolonged, and severe drought and water overuse during the first two decades of the 21st century have reduced water supplies of the Colorado River Basin, with effects cascading to ecosystems and human communities throughout the basin. In June and July 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology initiative team held a series of 12 collaboration meetings with USGS scientists and managers to discuss complicated, integrated science challenges and solutions related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. These Science and Technology collaboration meetings were structured to identify challenges experienced by meeting participants when working on complex problems, explore opportunities for coproducing scientific information, and envision future collaborative programs that leverage new technology. The 12 meetings were attended by 79 USGS staff representing 43 unique affiliations (for example, USGS science centers, mission areas, and regional offices). Meeting participants submitted 865 individual responses to six general discussion prompt topics (“Challenges,” “Knowledge Gaps,” “Existing Capabilities,” “Strategies and Actions,” “Example Applications,” and “Next Steps”) using a structured online collaboration tool. However, specific questions or tasks from each general discussion prompt varied by meeting topic. Terms from the USGS Thesaurus (https://apps.usgs.gov/thesaurus/) and USGS Data Lifecycle Model (https://www.usgs.gov/data-management/data-lifecycle) were used to identify and summarize participant responses relevant to science integration, stakeholder engagement, and information management technology. From these responses, opportunities for the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology initiative to facilitate science integration in the Colorado River Basin are highlighted in this report, including (a) pursuing specific interdisciplinary research topics that require integrating knowledge across spatial and temporal scales, (b) connecting scientists across disciplines, (c) reducing barriers to stakeholder engagement, (d) identifying new technologies, and (e) facilitating data access. Multiple strategies for designing future Science and Technology collaboration meetings are also outlined in this circular to better collect and analyze participant responses.

Released May 01, 2025 10:30 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5022

Dieta Hanson, Emily J. Wilkins, Spencer A. Wood, Christian Crowley, Whitney Boone, Rudy Schuster

Federally managed public lands and waters attract millions of visitors each year, generating significant economic benefits for surrounding communities. Accurate visitation data are crucial for guiding policy decisions and managing resources effectively. This report explores the methods employed by agencies to collect and use data on recreational visitation to Federal lands and waters. Visitation estimation practices across seven agencies are reviewed, revealing similarities such as the use of automated counters for on-site data collection, alongside differences in reporting frequencies, visit definitions, and public access to data. Emerging technologies, including social media, mobile device activity, and community science, are also evaluated for their potential to improve visitation estimation. Although these technologies offer promising opportunities, they come with challenges such as data biases, the need for calibration, costs, and privacy concerns. The report concludes with opportunities to enhance data collection, coordination, and accessibility, ensuring more efficient resource management and informed decision making.

Released May 01, 2025 10:01 EST

2025, Newsletter

Jane S. Hearon, Sarah E. Gelman, Geoffrey S. Ellis

No abstract available.

Released May 01, 2025 09:31 EST

2025, Journal of Wildlife Management (89)

Emily R. Gelzer, Justine A. Becker, Samantha P.H. Dwinnell, Gary L. Fralick, L. Embere Hall, Rusty C. Kaiser, Matthew Kauffman, Tayler N. LaSharr, Kevin L. Monteith, Anna C. Ortega, Jill E. Randall, Hall Sawyer, Mark A. Thonhoff, Jerod A. Merkle

Federal and state agencies within the United States have recently issued directives prioritizing the conservation of ungulate migration corridors and winter ranges. The ability to identify and delineate the spatial distribution of seasonal ranges underpins these policies. While such delineations are often derived from global positioning system (GPS) collar data collected for a few years on a focal population, they are being used in long-term conservation planning. Our objectives were to quantify consistency in migration corridors from year to year and cumulatively across multiple years and identify which aspects of the sampling design of GPS collar deployment will delineate a consistent and relatively complete migration corridor. We used data from 6 sub-herds of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), a species known to have high migratory fidelity, located in Wyoming and northern New Mexico, USA, monitored for 5–7 years (510 unique individuals). We calculated 2 types of migration corridors over time: cumulative corridors where each new year of data was added to all previous years and yearly corridors where each year was based only on data collected in that year. We then calculated the year-to-year consistency in the 2 types of migration corridors by calculating the percent overlap between corridors calculated in sequential years. We found that collaring a higher proportion of a sub-herd increased the consistency in migration corridors, whereas collaring new individuals via redeployments in a subsequent year of monitoring caused corridors to shift. To obtain a corridor with ≥90% consistency (i.e., approaching the complete area used by a population in our data), our results suggest that biologists should strive to collar ≥6% of a sub-herd for a minimum of 2 years. However, if ≥6% of a sub-herd cannot be collared, monitoring for longer (3–4 years) will provide roughly 90% consistency in a migration corridor estimate for mule deer. Furthermore, adding 16–25% new individuals each year will help capture variation among individuals while maintaining corridor consistency of ≥90%, leading to a more accurate delineation of the corridor. Our results provide managers with a logistical framework for collaring projects aimed at delineating migration corridors that are durable into the future.

Released May 01, 2025 09:30 EST

2025, Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit Technical Report HCSU-115

Noah Hunt, Chauncey K. Asing, Lindsey Nietmann, Paul C. Banko, Richard J. Camp

Palila (Loxioides bailleui) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on the seedpods of māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. A previous analysis of survey data estimated an 89% population decline between 1998 and 2021. Using the most recent annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, we report updated annual population estimates and trends since 1998. The 2022 population estimate was 367–742 birds (point estimate: 545); the 2023 population estimate was 374–842 birds (point estimate: 596); and the 2024 population estimate was 412–970 birds (point estimate: 666). Our estimates for survey years prior to 2022 were within the confidence intervals of the estimates from the previous analysis. Our models likewise showed a population fluctuating between 4,000 and 6,800 birds from 1998 to 2005 (except for an unusually low estimate in 2000), and then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, palila abundance fluctuated between 776 and 1,346 birds, before declining again in 2021 to 679 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by >90% or 203 birds/year, with very strong statistical evidence of an overall downward trend.

Released May 01, 2025 09:06 EST

2025, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (380)

Brett R. Jesmer, Janey Fugate, Matthew Kauffman

Recent evidence indicates that green-wave surfing behaviour in ungulates and the migrations that stem from this behaviour are socially learned, culturally transmitted across generations and become more efficient via cumulative cultural evolution. But given a lack of corroborative evidence, whether ungulate migration is a cultural phenomenon remains a hypothesis deserving of further testing. In this opinion piece, we summarize the role memory and social learning play in the green-wave surfing that underlies ungulate migration, and when combined with the natural history of ungulates, we argue that the most likely mechanism for maintenance of ungulate migration is animal culture. We further our argument by providing a synopsis of processes that promote diversification of migratory behaviour and link these processes to their emergent ecological patterns, which are common in nature but have not historically been considered as potential cultural phenomena. The notion that diverse portfolios of migratory behaviour may buffer populations from environmental change emerges from this synthesis but requires empirical testing. Finally, we contend that, because the migratory behaviour of ungulates stems largely from cultural transmission as opposed to a genetic programme, the diversity of observed migratory strategies represents ‘culturally significant units’ deserving of the same conservation effort afforded to evolutionarily significant units.

Released May 01, 2025 08:49 EST

2025, Molecular Ecology Resources (25)

Shawna J Zimmerman, Sara J. Oyler-McCance

Wildlife conservation and management increasingly considers genetic information to plan, understand and evaluate implemented population interventions. These actions commonly include conservation translocation and population reductions through removals. Change in genetic variation in response to management actions can be unintuitive due to the influence of multiple interacting drivers (e.g. genetic drift, life history traits, environmental stochasticity). Simulation is an excellent tool to understand the predicted consequences of different proposed or implemented actions. However, the genetic simulators that are robust to a wide variety of life history traits also have a steep learning curve to appropriately parameterize common management actions. To fill this gap, we have developed cgsim, an R package for simulating the genetic consequences of common management interventions for populations of wildlife species. We developed a set of functions to specifically understand the effects of four main aspects of managing small, declining or isolated populations: loss of genetic diversity to drift, augmenting existing populations (e.g. translocation), population reduction through targeted removals and population catastrophes driven by stochastic extrinsic forces. Our single population simulation model is individual-based, and flexible to a range of life history traits. Here we validate cgsim through comparison of simulations to theoretical expectations of genetic diversity loss and illustrate its applied utility by focusing on a recently published empirical example for the Greater Sage-Grouse. Cgsim is available as an R package at: https://doi.org/10.5066/P1BXBEXJ.

Released May 01, 2025 07:58 EST

2025, Conservation Science and Practice (7)

Amanda Katzer, Erin Boydston, Michael E. Akresh, Jennifer S. Briggs, Kelsey Cooper, Vijay Barve, Lena Lee, Toni Lyn Morelli

Species inventories are crucial for conservation but are difficult to assemble and maintain. Bioblitzes, which encourage the public to document biodiversity in a particular area and timeframe, may offer useful information but their integration with other datasets poses challenges. We investigated the potential contribution of bioblitzes to natural resource management using observations from the United States National Park Service (NPS) 2016 Centennial Bioblitz. Through automated cross-referencing over 19,000 iNaturalist “research-grade” observations from 107 national parks with existing park inventory lists, we matched 86% of species documented in the Bioblitz to NPS species lists, based on current taxonomy, and matched another 6% of species using alternative scientific names using our matching process in R. Of the remaining 13.5% that did not match the NPS species lists, we manually found that 84% of the unmatched species were found within the lists or were outside the boundaries of the park, identifying 141 native species that were unrecorded in NPS species lists. Many introduced species were recorded; they were more likely to be documented in parks closer to cities. Parks near cities also drew more participants. Our study shows how public participation, through iNaturalist and bioblitzes, can facilitate biodiversity monitoring across large spatial scales.

Released April 30, 2025 09:32 EST

2025, Phycology (5)

Kurt D. Carpenter, Barry H. Rosen, David Donahue, Kari Duncan, Brandin Hilbrandt, Christopher Lewis, Kim Swan, Tracy Triplett, Elijah Welch

Reservoirs and downstream rivers draining Oregon’s Cascade Range provide critical water supplies for over 1.5 million residents in dozens of communities. These waters also support planktonic and benthic cyanobacteria that produce cyanotoxins that may degrade water quality for drinking, recreation, aquatic life, and other beneficial uses. This 2016–2020 survey examined the sources and transport of four cyanotoxins—microcystins, cylindrospermopsins, anatoxins, and saxitoxins—in six river systems feeding 18 drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) in northwestern Oregon. Benthic cyanobacteria, plankton net tows, and (or) Solid-Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking (SPATT) samples were collected from 65 sites, including tributaries, reservoirs, main stems, and sites at or upstream from DWTPs. Concentrated extracts (320 samples) were analyzed with enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assays (ELISA), resulting in >90% detection. Benthic cyanobacteria (n = 80) mostly Nostoc, Phormidium, Microcoleus, and Oscillatoria, yielded microcystins (76% detection), cylindrospermopsins (41%), anatoxins (45%), and saxitoxins (39%). Plankton net tow samples from tributaries and main stems (n = 94) contained saxitoxins (84%), microcystins (77%), anatoxins (25%), and cylindrospermopsins (22%), revealing their transport in seston. SPATT sampler extracts (n = 146) yielded anatoxins (81%), microcystins (66%), saxitoxins (37%), and cylindrospermopsins (32%), indicating their presence dissolved in the water. Reservoir plankton net tow samples (n = 15), most often containing Dolichospermum, yielded microcystins (87%), cylindrospermopsins (73%), and anatoxins (47%), but no saxitoxins. The high detection frequencies of cyanotoxins at sites upstream from DWTP intakes, and at sites popular for recreation, where salmon and steelhead continue to exist, highlight the need for additional study on these cyanobacteria and the factors that promote production of cyanotoxins to minimize effects on humans, aquatic ecosystems, and economies.

Released April 29, 2025 10:10 EST

2025, Geosphere

Timothy A. Brickey, Paul J. Umhoefer, Scott E.K. Bennett, Christine Regalla, Nancy R. Riggs, Skyler Pendleton Mavor

Sedimentary basins in the Colorado River extensional corridor record large-magnitude Basin and Range extension and younger dextral shear deformation in the evolving Pacific−North America plate boundary. The south Dome Rock Mountains basin is located in west-central Arizona (USA), where the history of basin evolution, style of deformation, and timing of the transition between extension and dextral shear are not well constrained. We integrate new geologic mapping of the south Dome Rock Mountains basin with zircon U-Pb geochronology of six marker beds to characterize the timing of basin evolution and the slip history of the south Dome Rock Mountains normal fault. Structural analysis defines structures consistent with regional extension and younger dextral shear deformation. We use sedimentological and petrological analysis to interpret the depositional environments of three basin sequences. A lower basin sequence consists of fluvial strata deposited in an internally drained intermontane basin from ca. 35 Ma to 24.4 Ma. A sequence of volcanic rocks was emplaced in the basin between 24.4 Ma and 23.3 Ma, before the onset of local extensional faulting. An upper basin sequence of coarse conglomerate and sedimentary breccia was deposited on the hanging wall of a half graben structure after 23.3 Ma and through ca. 12.8 Ma, synchronous with 3−7 km of dip slip on the west-dipping, listric south Dome Rock Mountains fault. The basin was subsequently deformed by dextral shear after 12.8 Ma and before 4.8 Ma. These results document how distributed deformation related to the evolving Pacific−North America plate boundary occurred >100 km from the primary plate boundary.

Released April 29, 2025 09:42 EST

2025, Freshwater Biology (70)

Nicole Lynn Berry, David Bunnell, Erin P. Overholt, Jennifer A. Schumacher, Addison Z. Almeda, Casey W. Schoenebeck, Peter C. Jacobson, Kristopher Dey, Jason B. Smith, Andrew Tucker, Thomas J. Fisher, Elizabeth M. Mette, Bradley N. Carlson, Gretchen J.A. Hansen, Tyler D. Ahrenstorff, Derek L. Bahr, Kevin Keeler, Brian Weidel, Abigail Lynch, Craig E. Williamson

1. Cisco (Otoonapii in Ojibwe; Coregonus artedi Lesueur, 1818), is a widely distributed stenothermic freshwater fish whose embryos typically incubate under ice and in the dark. We used Cisco as a model organism for testing the potential of UV-induced escape hatching behaviour. Owing to reduced ice cover and increased water transparency in north temperate lakes, these experiments provide insights into the resilience of coregonine embryos if exposed to ultraviolet radiation (UV-B; 280–320 nm).
2. Eyed Cisco embryos were exposed to artificially sourced UV-B through a series of experiments that measured the hatching rate and fitness (heart rate and pigmentation pattern) 2 days after hatching and under cold [6.6°C] and warm [8.6°C] conditions.
3. These experiments supported an extension of the escape hatching behaviour hypothesis, whereby UV-B exposure induced earlier (ca 30 days) and more punctuated hatching of Cisco embryos, independent of an increase in water temperature. UV-B exposure produced more larvae with irregular pigmentation patterns and reduced heart rates (by about 20%) – both of which could be indicative of reduced fitness.
4. UV-induced escape hatching adusts the fundamental framework in which we characterise fish embryo resilience to increased UV-B exposure and the potential consequences of reduced ice cover. Earlier hatching from UV-B exposure could increase the recruitment bottleneck of these fish by reducing survivorship of the post-hatched larvae.

Released April 29, 2025 08:53 EST

2025, Landscape Ecology (42)

Samuel Norton Chambers, Joshua W. Von Nonn, Matthew Alexander Burgess, Lance R. Brady, Jeffrey Bracewell, Daniel A. Guerra, Miguel L. Villarreal

Context

The relationship between slope and terrestrial animal locomotion is key to landscape ecology but underexplored across species. This is partly due to a lack of scalable methodology that applies to a diversity of wildlife.

Objectives

This study investigates the slope-speed relationship for two species, Texas tortoise (Gopherus berlandieri) and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), through the combined application of remote sensing, GPS tracking, behavior models, and parametric distribution. While using readily available Digital Elevation Models (DEM) for pronghorn, we explore the use of very high-resolution lidar Digital Terrain Models (DTM) from Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to characterize tortoise movements at micro-scales.

Methods

After classifying animal behavior with GPS tracking data and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), we analyzed the relationship between the speed of the animals and the slope of the terrain using a 30-m DEM for pronghorn, and a fine-scale UAS DTM for Texas tortoise, and three nonlinear models: Laplace, Gauss, and Lorentz.

Results

High-resolution DTM, coupled with GPS tracking, accurately models the relationship of speed and slope at a micro-scale, while a DEM is suitable for a larger scale. Laplace models best predicted the speed of both the Texas tortoise and pronghorn. Models showed tortoises, which are not known for rapid and agile movement like the pronghorn, have a broader tolerance for varying slopes at a fine scale.

Conclusions

These findings enhance understanding of species-specific movement offering valuable insights for habitat management and conservation tailored to species’ behaviors and capabilities.

Released April 29, 2025 08:31 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2021-1030-V

Mahesh Shrestha, Minsu Kim, Aparajithan Sampath, Jeffrey Clauson

Executive Summary 

This report documents the system characterization of the Indian Space Research Organisation Resourcesat-2A Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports describe the methodology and procedures used for characterization, present technical and operational information about the specific sensing system being evaluated, and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions.

Resourcesat-2A was launched in 2016 on the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle-C36; it is identical to Resourcesat-2, and together, they decrease imaging revisit time from 5 days to 2–3 days, providing data continuity and improved temporal resolution. Resourcesat-2 and -2A carry the AWiFS, Linear Imaging Self Scanning-3, and Linear Imaging Self Scanning-4 medium-resolution imaging sensors, continuing the legacy of the Indian Space Research Organisation’s Indian Remote Sensing-1C/1D/P3 satellite programs. More information about Indian Space Research Organisation satellites and sensors is available through the Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation Earth Observing Satellites Online Compendium and from the Indian Space Research Organisation at https://www.isro.gov.in/.

The Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization team assessed the geometric, radiometric, and spatial performance of the Resourcesat-2A AWiFS sensor. Geometric performance is divided into the interior geometric performance of band-to-band registration and the exterior geometric performance of geolocation accuracy. The interior geometric performance had offsets in the range of −1.10 meters (m; −0.020 pixel) to 3.67 m (0.066 pixel) in easting and −5.68 m (−0.101 pixel) to 10.38 m (0.185 pixel) in northing with root mean square error values from 5.60 m (0.100 pixel) to 11.31 m (0.202 pixel) in easting and from 3.00 m (0.054 pixel) to 13.52 m (0.241 pixel) in northing.

The exterior geometric performance had mean offsets of −25.29 m in easting and 16.22 m northing with root mean square error values of 26.07 m in easting and 17.60 m in northing compared to the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager sensor. The radiometric performance had offsets from −0.002 to 0.029 and slopes from 0.733 to 1.012. Spatial performance was in the range of 1.354 to 1.639 pixels for full width at half maximum with a modulation transfer function at a Nyquist frequency in the range of 0.108 to 0.174.

Released April 29, 2025 08:08 EST

2025, Ambio

Jeremy T. Bruskotter, Neil H. Carter, Richard E.W. Berl, Joseph W. Hinton, Jazmin Murphy, L. Mark Elbroch, John A. Vucetich

Research indicates that human-caused mortality (HCM) is a key factor limiting numerous large carnivore populations. However, efforts to represent HCM in spatially explicit models have generally been limited in scope—often relying on proxies, such as road or human density. Yet such efforts fail to distinguish different sources of HCM, which can arise from different antecedent processes. We offer a systems-based conceptual framework for understanding the antecedents of HCMs that is grounded in theory from the social and behavioral sciences. Specifically, we first explain how HCMs are usefully distinguished into four types (e.g., accidental, harvest, illicit, control actions), then discuss how these different types tend to be driven by different sets of psychological and sociopolitical processes. We contend that improvements in understanding the spatial variation in HCMs would rise from more explicit attention to the various antecedent processes that precede each mortality type.

Released April 28, 2025 09:55 EST

2025, Fisheries Management and Ecology

Valerio Sbragaglia, Robert Arlinghaus, Faith Ochwada-Doyle, Holly Susan Embke, Lucas P Griffin, Taylor Hunt

Recreational fishing extends beyond catching fish, connecting individuals with nature, generating environmental stewards and contributing significantly to both local, regional and national economies. Assessing potential impacts on ecosystems and social-ecological systems requires dedicated multi- and interdisciplinary research and integrative management and policy approaches. Managing recreational fisheries effectively also necessitates transdisciplinary thinking, yet this poses continued challenges, as researchers and managers balance specialized expertise with innovative, boundary-crossing perspectives in light of limited funding in a rapidly changing social-ecological environment. The World Recreational Fishing Conference (WRFC) serves as the leading global scientific forum for addressing these challenges, fostering interdisciplinary exchange among scientists, managers, policy makers and stakeholders. The papers in this special issue represent the output of the last WRFC in Melbourne, Australia in 2023. By reviewing the content of the papers published in the present special issue, we illustrate the critical role of collaborative spaces, such as the WRFC, in bridging different expertise and approaches and fostering innovation, thereby securing adaptive management and conservation of recreational fisheries in response to global changes. Evaluating the development of the WRFC over three decades highlights how this conference series represents a leading think tank serving the entire network of recreational fisheries professionals globally.

Released April 28, 2025 09:42 EST

2025, Conference Paper

Timothy Collett

Gas hydrates are increasingly acknowledged as a potential future natural gas resource, sparking extensive global research into their geological characteristics and the technology needed for production. This paper offers a comprehensive review of gas hydrate-related research initiatives and production testing activities, including those in the Alaska North Slope (USA), Mackenzie Delta (Canada), Gulf of America (USA), South China Sea (PRC), Nankai Trough (Japan), Bay of Bengal (India), and Black Sea (Turkey).

Recent studies have demonstrated successful gas production from hydrates found in sand-rich sediments using existing conventional technologies, particularly depressurization techniques. This review highlights the production trials conducted in Alaska, Canada, China, and Japan, providing insight into gas hydrate production feasibility. In addition, the implications of the completed production trials are reviewed relative to their energy planning considerations. This review also emphasizes research opportunities for technological advancements to effectively utilize the substantial volumes of gas stored in gas hydrates across various global geological settings. This compilation underscores the critical role that gas hydrates could play in meeting future energy demands.

Released April 28, 2025 09:18 EST

2025, PNAS (122)

Tina Dura, William Chilton, David Small, Andra Garner, Andrea D. Hawkes, Diego Melgar, Simon E. Engelhart, Lydia M. Staisch, Robert C. Witter, Alan Nelson, Harvey Kelsey, Jonathan Allan, David S. Bruce, Jessica DePaolis, Mike Priddy, Richard W. Briggs, Robert Weiss, SeanPaul La Selle, Michael J. Willis, Benjamin P. Horton

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km² (low), 160 km² (medium), or 300 km² (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km² (low), 240 km² (medium), or 370 km² (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Released April 28, 2025 08:08 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Margarita M. Solares-Colón, Dara Elyse Goldberg, Diego Melgar, Elizabeth A. Vanacore, Valerie J. Sahakian, William L. Yeck, Francisco Hernández, Alberto Lopez-Venegas

The M6.4 mainshock of the southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence on 7 January 2020, was one of the most impactful modern earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean. Due to its offshore location and complex aftershock distribution, its source kinematics remain poorly constrained. This active sequence illuminated a complex set of previously unrecognized structures that indicate multiple causative faults may have slipped during its rupture. Here, we utilize seismic and geodetic observations to enhance model resolution, estimate the finite slip of the mainshock, and test a multi-segment, geologically realistic fault geometry. Our refined model finds a lower rupture velocity and longer rise times than typical for an event of this magnitude. This indicates a slow-evolving rupture process that resembles characteristics of a tsunami earthquake. Although this normal/strike-slip faulting event was not tsunamigenic, these qualities, if pervasive for this region, have important implications for future seismic monitoring and hazards in southwestern Puerto Rico.

Released April 27, 2025 08:15 EST

2025, Frontiers in Enviornmental Science (13)

E.D. Attanasi, Philip A. Freeman, Timothy C. Coburn

Oil and gas reservoirs represent suitable containers to sequester carbon dioxide (CO₂) in a supercritical state because they are accessible, reservoir properties are known, and they previously contained stored buoyant fluids. However, planners must quantify the relative magnitude of the CO₂ storage resource in these reservoirs to formulate a comprehensive strategy for CO₂ mitigation. Even reconnaissance-type estimates of CO₂ storage resources of known oil and gas reservoirs may require complicated calculations involving 1) estimates of recoverable oil and gas, 2) reservoir properties (depth, temperature, pressure, etc.), and 3) the physical qualities of the retained fluids. We demonstrate the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to bypass these computations to yield more rapid estimates of CO₂ storage resources in reservoirs capable of hosting CO₂ in a supercritical state. ML algorithms are computationally efficient because they do not impose the strong assumptions on the data-generating process that standard statistical or engineering procedures require. Further, ML algorithms can capture highly complex, particularly nonlinear, relationships among predictor variables. We demonstrate the application of four different ML algorithms using data from onshore and offshore oil and gas reservoirs in Europe, and show they perform well when predictions are compared to engineering estimates. The proposed methods and models provide an effective and novel way to more rapidly and directly determine the subsurface CO₂ storage capacity of oil and gas reservoirs around the world, information that operators, researchers, and policymakers alike require to meet energy transition and decarbonization goals.

Released April 26, 2025 10:03 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Kimberly A. deLong, Terrence Blackburn, Beth Elaine Caissie, Jason A. Addison, Zuzanna Stroynowski, Maria R. Sipala, Franco Marcantonio, Ana Christina Ravelo

The Bølling-Allerød deglacial event is marked by high diatom productivity and opal deposition throughout the subarctic Pacific. This opal could either constitute a strengthened biological pump and thus carbon sequestration, or a weakened biological pump and release of marine-sequestered CO₂ to the atmosphere. We quantify silicic acid supply at IODP Site U1340 in the Bering Sea using biogenic opal and δ³⁰Si of Coscinodiscus, a diatom genus. These records, along with diatom environmental indicators, suggest the Bølling-Allerød had high silicic acid availability related to a shift from stratification to seasonal upwelling dynamics. We thus propose the primary cause of the high productivity event was increased macronutrient supply from vertical exchange that injected old, nutrient-rich, CO₂-rich waters into the surface. Enhanced CO₂ release from the subarctic Pacific may help explain critical intervals of CO₂ rise that occur at the onsets of the Bølling-Allerød and PreBoreal.

Released April 25, 2025 10:22 EST

2025, Planetary Science Journal (6)

Joshua Aaron Coyan, Matthew Siegler, Jose Martinez Comacho, Ross A. Beyer, Mark Shirley

We use a high-resolution digital elevation model and a numerical thermal model to produce a variety of inputs for a water-ice prospectivity model for the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) landing site. These input data are maps of topography, surface slope, surface aspect, surface curvature, maximum temperature, depth to ice stability, permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), distance to PSRs, and PSR density. This model predicts where water ice is most likely within the top meter of regolith, assuming plausible relationships between ice concentration and the various inputs. The model is designed to be adjusted in near-real time as data are collected during the VIPER mission. As such, it is a tool for both analyzing data from the mission as well as planning operations. Since the current model, at this point, relies only on orbital remote sensing, the final version will also be a tool to extrapolate the VIPER mission results across the lunar poles.

Released April 25, 2025 09:08 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Adam E. Manaster, Anne F Sheehan, Dara Elyse Goldberg, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ethan F. Roth

Precise point positioning (PPP) of ships using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data reveals the precise movements of marine vessels. This method may quantify anomalies in sea surface height with implications for oceanographic monitoring, exploration, and tsunami warning. The GNSS PPP data from the R/V Sikuliaq, a research ship of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, were processed to detect a small local tsunami generated by the Lowell Point landslide, which occurred near Seward, Alaska, on 8 May 2022 (UTC). The GNSS receiver aboard the R/V Sikuliaq recorded the waves generated by the landslide, with a maximum wave amplitude of 6 cm and wave periods between 40 and 50 s. These results are consistent with simulations of the landslide event.

Released April 25, 2025 08:22 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1011

Amy G. Vandergast, Julia G. Smith, Anna Mitelberg, Dustin A. Wood, Kimberley A. Sawyer, Courtney J. Conway

Captive breeding and release programs aimed at recovery of rare species can be informed by genetic data to help select high-diversity source populations, make pairing decisions to minimize inbreeding, and manage release strategies. We developed a set of 54 microsatellite loci to assess genetic structure and diversity across the United States range of the Light-footed Ridgway’s Rail (Rallus obsoletus levipes), a federally endangered marsh bird for which populations have been augmented by a captive breeding program annually since 2001. We identified three regional genetic clusters, with the highest genetic diversity reported in the central cluster, which included all sampled wetlands in north San Diego County. Recent (2019–24) captive-breeding adults all clustered within the northernmost cluster (Orange and Ventura Counties), which was expected given that this cluster included the source wetland for the captive breeding program. Gene flow rates, which approximate the proportions of individuals in a population originating from other populations, were relatively high among clusters (4–24 percent) and may have been enhanced through the release of captive-bred rails. Based on the genetic data analyzed in a genetic rescue decision framework, sourcing new breeding birds from the north San Diego County cluster could provide the greatest genetic diversity benefits. The northernmost cluster, which included Mugu Lagoon and all sampled Orange County wetlands, was considered the most in need of genetic rescue. Recent breeding pairs in the captive breeding program have comparatively low diversity and high interrelatedness. Sourcing birds from wetlands with high genetic diversity and population sizes, assessing genetic relatedness before pairing, and focusing releases in areas that have low estimates of genetic diversity could improve the distribution of genetic diversity across wild populations in the future.

Released April 24, 2025 18:10 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3008

William J. Andrews, Timothy N. Titus, Lauren Ellissa Eng, Kristine L. Zellman, Patrick J. Anderson, Jeremy C Havens

Introduction

The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States are complex, interconnected systems that sustain a large variety of species, including tens of millions of humans. These regions face risks from drought, wildfires, invasive plant and animal species, and habitat reduction. Working with many stakeholders, scientists can help to characterize these risks by providing data and analytical tools to inform land and water resource management decisions. 

The U.S. Geological Survey 2024 Rocky Mountain Region (Region 7) Science Exchange Workshop, held in April 2024, focused on cutting-edge science techniques, evaluating complex interconnected risks, and coproducing science with science partners and stakeholders. These science topics and communication strategies can be used for developing data, interpretations, and decision support tools needed to provide science that resource managers and other stakeholders can use to better understand complex, dynamic natural systems and develop management strategies to plan for and adapt to risks that threaten human communities and natural ecosystems.

Released April 24, 2025 10:32 EST

2025, Applied Computing and Geosciences (26)

Joshua Mark Rosera, Graham W. Lederer, John H. Schuenemeyer

Released April 24, 2025 10:26 EST

2025, Journal of Hydrometeorology

Mariana J. Webb, Christine M. Albano, Adrian A. Harpold, Daniel M. Wagner, Anna M. Wilson

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the United States (U.S.) West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging because precipitation phase, antecedent conditions, and physical watershed characteristics (e.g., slope and soil depth) can influence the magnitude of floods. Here, we analyze how antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions contribute to variability in streamflow during AR events and how that changes across climatic regimes and physiography in 122 U.S. West Coast watersheds. We identify a robust non-linear relationship between streamflow and ASM during ARs in 89% of watersheds. The inflection point in this relationship represents a watershed-specific critical ASM threshold, above which event maximum streamflow is, on average, two to four and a half times larger. Wet ASM conditions amplify the hydrologic impacts of more frequent but weaker, lower moisture transport AR events, while dry ASM conditions attenuate the hydrologic impacts that stronger, higher moisture transport AR events could otherwise cause. Our research shows that watersheds prone to ASM-amplified streamflows have higher evaporation ratios, lower cold-season precipitation, lower snow-to-rain ratios, and shallower, clay-rich soils. Higher evaporation and lower precipitation lead to greater ASM variability during the cold season, increasing streamflow during wet periods and buffering streamflow during dry periods. Lower snow fraction and shallower soils limit the antecedent water storage capacity of a watershed, contributing to greater sensitivity of streamflow peaks to ASM variability. Incorporating ASM thresholds into hydrologic models in these regions prone to AR-amplified streamflow could improve forecasts and decrease uncertainty.

Released April 24, 2025 09:53 EST

2025, The Cryosphere (19) 1675-1693

Rainey Aberle, Ellyn Enderlin, Shad O'Neel, Caitlyn Florentine, Louis C. Sass, Adam Dickson, Hans-Peter Marshall, Alejandro Flores

Tracking the extent of seasonal snow on glaciers over time is critical for assessing glacier vulnerability and the response of glacierized watersheds to climate change. Existing snow cover products do not reliably distinguish seasonal snow from glacier ice and firn, preventing their use for glacier snow cover detection. Despite previous efforts to classify glacier surface facies using machine learning on local scales, currently there is no published comparison of machine learning models for classifying glacier snow cover across different satellite image products. We present an automated snow detection workflow for mountain glaciers using supervised machine-learning-based image classifiers and Landsat 8 and 9, Sentinel-2, and PlanetScope satellite imagery. We develop the image classifiers by testing numerous machine learning algorithms with training and validation data from the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glacier Project glaciers. The workflow produces daily to twice monthly time series of several glacier mass balance and snowmelt indicators (snow-covered area, accumulation area ratio, and seasonal snow line) from 2013 to present. Workflow performance is assessed by comparing automatically classified images and snow lines to manual interpretations at each glacier site. The image classifiers exhibit overall accuracies of 92%–98%, K scores of 84%–96%, and F scores of 93%–98% for all image products. The median difference between automatically and manually delineated median snow line altitudes is 31m (IQR of 73to0m)across all image products. The Sentinel-2 classifier (support vector machine) produces the most accurate glacier mass balance and snowmelt indicators and distinguishes snow from ice and f irn the most reliably. Although they are less accurate, the Landsat- and PlanetScope-derived estimates greatly enhance the temporal coverage of observations. The transient accumulation area ratio produces the least noisy time series, making it the most reliable indicator for characterizing seasonal snow trends. The temporally detailed accumulation area ratio time series reveal that the timing of minimum snow cover conditions varies by up to a month between Arctic (63°N) and midlatitude (48°N) sites, underscoring the potential for bias when estimating glacier minimum snow cover conditions from a single late-summer image. Widespread application of our automated snow detection workflow has the potential to improve regional assessments of glacier mass balance, land ice representations within Earth system models, water resources, and the impacts of climate change on snow cover across broad spatial scales.

Released April 24, 2025 09:21 EST

2025, Journal of Wildlife Management

Peter F. Rebholz, Sarah B. Bassing, Lisette P. Waits, David Edward Ausband

Individual behaviors are influenced by environmental, genetic, and demographic factors. Some animals choose to live in groups and cooperatively breed, and their behaviors can change depending on dynamic factors such as group size and composition that affect group persistence. In Idaho, USA, gray wolves (Canis lupus) are harvested annually, providing an opportunity to investigate the effects of harvest and seasonal behaviors on a population of cooperative breeders. These annual hunting and trapping seasons overlap with the dispersal and breeding periods for wolves and we do not know how harvest affects the vulnerability of different sex and age classes during these important biological periods. We applied 9 years (2009–2018) of genetic, age, and harvest data from harvested wolves to investigate how behaviors (dispersal and breeding) and biological drivers might influence the vulnerability of wolves to harvest. We created pedigrees from genotypes of non-invasively collected scats to estimate the expected proportion of the wolf population composed of 3 different age classes (pup, yearling, and sexually mature or ≥2 years old) and compared them to the observed number of each age class harvested during biologically significant periods (i.e., dispersal and breeding). We found that pups were more vulnerable to harvest in December when wolf harvest transitioned largely to trapping (accounts for 66% of harvest), and found evidence that adults were more vulnerable to harvest during their breeding season in January and February. In contrast, we found no difference in the expected versus observed number of wolves ≥2 years old in the harvest during peak dispersal season (December), or in the expected versus observed number of yearlings in the harvest during September and October when pups are mobile and groups of wolves abandon the use of pup-rearing sites. Some age classes were disproportionally harvested during certain periods for specific years, but this was not consistent across all years, suggesting there is more to learn about the vulnerability of different age classes to harvest. We found harvest can disproportionally affect some demographic classes of individuals depending on year, biological period, and harvest type. With wolves continuing to recolonize historical ranges, our approach can benefit managers and future studies with the goal of identifying how interannual harvest affects groups of wolves.

Released April 24, 2025 08:21 EST

2025, Bulletin of Volcanology (87)

Monserrat Cascante, Thomas Giachetti, Heather M. Wright, Alexa R. Van Eaton, Geoffroy Avard

Determining whether fresh magma has reached the surface during a volcanic eruption can provide important information for forecasts of future activity, especially in the early stages of an eruption. However, identifying fresh, juvenile pyroclasts in tephra fall deposits can be challenging and inconclusive. We studied the products of explosions at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, in 2016–2019, a period during which the volcano transitioned from a pressurized, hydrothermally sealed state to an open conduit with increased degassing to the atmosphere. The activity consisted of semi-continuous explosions producing <500-m-high plumes, with the exception of explosions on April 14 and 22, 2017, that produced 4-km-high plumes. We analyzed the grain size distribution, componentry, and particle density of the products of twenty explosions, and collected groundmass glass composition on juvenile particles for three of them. Our work demonstrates varying degrees of magma involvement with the hydrothermal system through time, with juvenile material representing a wide range of abundance (~10–70 vol.%) in deposits of individual explosions. Before early April 2017, we infer that small phreatomagmatic explosions were triggered by contact between magmatic fluids and/or magma and the hydrothermal system, based on the presence of abundant hydrothermal fragments and minor juvenile magma. Concurrent with decreasing hydrothermal component in the deposits, explosions in April–May 2017 eroded the walls of the shallow plumbing system, evidenced by an increase in wall-rock lithics in the deposits. These changes coincided with drying of the crater lake, leading to several magmatic explosions in April-September 2017, whose juvenile-rich deposits are consistent with primary fragmentation of fresh magma in the conduit. The eruptive activity changed after this magmatic phase, and in 2019, small explosions mostly recycled the heterogeneous deposits of previous events, producing fine material with high proportions of recycled particles. All explosions from 2016–2019 remobilized already-emplaced magma from the 1953–1955 eruptive period, although distinct glass compositions between explosions suggest difference in crystallization or they tapped different portions of this magma body. Our work sheds light on the eruption dynamics and shallow plumbing system of this persistently active volcano and provides a case study for understanding the variable efficiency of phreatomagmatic fragmentation.

Released April 24, 2025 07:42 EST

2025, Scientific Data - Nature (12)

Donghoon Lee, Weston Anderson, Xuan Chen, Frank Davenport, Shraddhanand Shukla, Ritvik Sahajpal, Michael Budde, James Rowland, James Verdin, Liangzhi You, Matthieu Ahouangbenon, Kyle Frankel Davis, Endalkachew Kebede, Steffen Ehrmann, Christina Justice, Carsten Meyer

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces severe agricultural data scarcity amidst high food insecurity and a large agricultural yield gap, making crop production data crucial for understanding and enhancing food systems. To address this gap, HarvestStat Africa presents the largest compilation of open-access subnational crop statistics and time-series across SSA. Based on agricultural statistics collated by USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the subnational crop statistics are standardized and calibrated across changing administrative units to produce consistent and continuous time-series. The dataset includes 546,605 records, primarily spanning from 1980 to 2022, detailing crop production, harvested areas, and yields for 33 countries and 90 crop types, including key cereals in SSA such as wheat, maize, rice, sorghum, barley, millet, and fonio. This new dataset enhances our understanding of how climate variability and change influence agricultural production, supports subnational food system analysis, and aids in operational yield forecasting. As an open-source resource, it sets an important precedent for sharing subnational crop statistics to inform decision-making and modeling efforts.

Released April 23, 2025 12:23 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2021-1030-T

Seonkyung Park, Mahesh Shrestha, Minsu Kim, Aparajithan Sampath, Jeffrey Clauson

Executive Summary 

This report addresses system characterization of the Indian Space Research Organisation Resourcesat-2A Linear Imaging Self Scanning-3 sensor and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced and delivered by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence since 2021. These reports present and detail the methodology and procedures for characterization, present technical and operational information about the specific sensing system being evaluated, and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions.

Resourcesat-2A is identical to Resourcesat-2 and was launched in 2016 on the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle-C36 for continuity of data and improved temporal resolution. The Resourcesat-2 platform (which includes Resourcesat-2A) is of Indian Remote Sensing Satellites-1C/1D–P3 heritage and was built by the Indian Space Research Organisation. Resourcesat-2 and Resourcesat-2A carry the Linear Imaging Self Scanning-3 and Linear Imaging Self Scanning-4 sensors for medium-resolution imaging. More information on Indian Space Research Organisation satellites and sensors is available in the “2022 Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation—Remote Sensing Satellite Compendium” and from the manufacturer at https://www.isro.gov.in/.

The Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization team completed data analyses to characterize the geometric (interior and exterior), radiometric, and spatial performances.

To summarize the results, we have determined that this sensor provides an interior geometric performance with mean offsets in the range of 1.75 meters (m; 0.06 pixel) to 6.83 m (0.23 pixel) in easting and −1.83 m (−0.06 pixel) to 1.81 m (0.06 pixel) in northing in band-to-band registration and a root mean square error in the range of 3.81 m (0.13 pixel) to 8.19 m (0.27 pixel) in easting and 2.21 m (0.09 pixel) to 4.72 m (0.16 pixel) in northing.

We have measured an exterior geometric error offset in the range of −21.29 to 6.88 m in easting and −7.35 to −2.63 m in northing, and the root mean square error is in the range of 7.19 to 21.43 m in easting and 3.64 to 8.19 m in northing in comparison to the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager.

The measured radiometric performance was in the range of −0.002 to 0.031 in offset and 0.701 to 0.940 in slope, and the spatial performance was in the range of 1.204 to 1.265 pixels for full width at half maximum with a modulation transfer function at a Nyquist frequency in the range of 0.251 to 0.277.

Released April 23, 2025 10:36 EST

2025, PLoS ONE (20)

Ross K. Hinderer, Blake Hossack, Lisa A. Eby

Body condition of animals is often assumed to reflect advantages in survival or reproduction, but body condition indices may not reflect body composition, or condition may be unrelated to fitness-associated traits. The relationship between body condition indices and composition has rarely been quantified in amphibians, and body condition has not previously been related to growth in adult amphibians. We used laboratory (quantitative magnetic resonance) and field methods to evaluate the relationship between body composition and the four common body condition indices for wildlife studies (body mass index, Fulton’s index, scaled mass index, and residual index) in two frog and one salamander species in Montana, USA. We then assessed the relationship between body condition and summertime somatic growth during a 3-yr mark-recapture study of one of our study species (Columbia spotted frogs, Rana luteiventris). Correlation of body condition indices with fat and lean mass differed across species, sexes, and whether components were represented as percentages or were scaled based on size. Scaled mass index, residual index, and Fulton’s index were most often well correlated (r > 0.6) with scaled body components, but Fulton’s index was strongly correlated with body length. Scaled mass and residual indices predicted scaled fat relatively well and were uncorrelated with body length. Heavier condition predicted higher growth rates of Columbia spotted frogs, regardless of the index used. Frogs of heavy body condition (90^th percentile residual index) grew 0.04 and 0.05 mm/day greater than frogs of light condition (10^th percentile) for average length males and females, respectively. Frogs of short body length (10^th percentile) grew 0.11 and 0.19 mm/day more than long (90^th percentile) males and females, respectively. By examining the relationship between body condition indices and body composition and revealing a link between condition and future growth, our results provide an empirical basis for choosing the most appropriate condition index, as well as a potential link to fitness-related traits.

Released April 23, 2025 09:52 EST

2025, Facets (10)

Greg W. Mitchell, Patrick Kirby, Jason Duffe, Lenore Fahrig, Judith Girard, Mark K. Johnston, Maxim Larrivee, Amanda E. Martin, Iman Momeni-Dehaghi, Jon Pasher, Elizabeth Rezek, Elisabeth Shapiro, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Darren Pouliot

The eastern migratory monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population has declined by ∼84% between 1993 and 2024. Population recovery in the Midwestern United States is limited by the availability of the monarch's main host plant for egg laying—common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca). The extent to which common milkweed availability is limiting in other breeding regions is unknown. Our objective was to determine whether Canada has enough common milkweed to support its share of the trinational eastern migratory monarch population recovery target, given ∼29 stems of common milkweed are needed to contribute one adult monarch into the fall migratory population. To meet this objective, we estimated the number of common milkweed stems in Canada using published common milkweed availability estimates by land cover type. We also estimated the size of the Canadian monarch population if the recovery target was achieved using published estimates of wintering monarch density in Mexico, fall migration survival rates, and the relative proportion of monarchs entering fall migration from Canada. We estimate that Canada currently has 484 million common milkweed stems (range: 111 million–1 billion stems) and increasing this amount by 1.61 times (i.e., by ∼295 million stems), or equivalently, by 61%, would support the recovery target.

Released April 23, 2025 09:02 EST

2025, Fisheries Research (285)

Patrick Kroboth, Michael E. Colvin, Courtney Broaddus

Black Carp Mylopharyngodon piceus were imported into the United States in the 1970s and 1980s for use in aquaculture; escape occurred and reported wild captures increased. Lacking species-specific capture methods, we assessed fisheries dependent incidental Black Carp catches for a common method, hoop nets, by kernel density analysis to identify an area of increased reporting and compare frequency of reports for water temperature, river stage, and capture date to identify seasonality. We then used fisheries independent effort to identify co-occurrence of species via non-metric multi-dimensional scaling and fit Black Carp catch and environmental covariates by generalized linear models to assess site-specific environmental covariates facilitating capture. The best approximating distribution was refitted for predictions and inference. The greatest density of fisheries dependent hoop net captures (39 %) was near the confluence of the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, primarily from July-September. Captures were characterized by median water temperature 26.7°C, river stage 5.02 m, and 223 day-of-year (DOY; mid-August). Ordination of fisheries independent catch identified similarity in environmental covariates of Smallmouth Buffalo Ictiobus bubalus and Black Carp. The probability of capturing ≥ 1 Black Carp increased with DOY, decreased with increasing current velocity, and increased with depth. Most captures occurred in outside bends (87 %) or side channels (12 %). Probability of Black Carp capture was low but increased in summer and early fall when stage is lower, facilitating reduced current velocity and access to deeper areas. Results may be validated beyond this river segment to test if site-specific hydrology or habitat characteristics facilitated increased commercial and biologist capture and for replication.

Released April 23, 2025 08:25 EST

2025, Northwest Science (98) 79-85

Caleb M. Wilson, Bryce Marciniak, Mike Thomas, Jordan Messner, Matthew P. Corsi, Michael Quist

The Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis is a piscivorous cyprinid native to western North America. Information on the best structure for estimating the age of Northern Pikeminnows is a key knowledge gap that may limit inquiries on management efforts. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate between-reader precision and concordance between age estimates for lapilli otoliths and pectoral fin rays from Northern Pikeminnows. Age estimates from lapilli otoliths were compared to those from pectoral fin rays of 150 Northern Pikeminnows captured from Lake Cascade, Idaho, in April–May 2022. Exact percent agreement of estimated ages between the readers was higher for fin rays (75.3%) than otoliths (50.0%), with a mean coefficient of variation of 3.5 and 8.7, respectively. Readers also assigned a confidence rating (0–3; higher value reflects higher confidence in age estimate) to each structure. Confidence ratings were higher for fin ray age estimates (mean ± SD; 1.6 ± 0.6) than otolith estimates (1.1 ± 0.7) between readers. A consensus age was estimated for each structure and fish. Agreement between consensus age estimates for otoliths and fin rays was 26.7% with a coefficient of variation of 14.0. Our findings suggest that fin rays were easier to collect, process, and read than otoliths, and resulted in more precise age estimates than otoliths. Results from our study provide guidance on the best structures for estimating the age of Northern Pikeminnows that can be used to inform management efforts.

Released April 23, 2025 08:00 EST

2025, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

David W. Thieltges, David B. Conn, Ross N. Cuthbert, Alison M. Dunn, Rosa Jolma, M. Camille Hopkins, Volodimir Sarabeev, Sander Smolders, Carol A. Stepien, K. Mathias Wegner, Patrick M. Kočovský

Climate change is likely to affect infectious diseases that are facilitated by biological invasions, with repercussions for wildlife conservation and zoonotic risks. Current invasion management and policy are underprepared for the future risks associated with such invasion-related wildlife diseases. By considering evidence from bioclimatology, invasion biology, and disease research, we illustrate how climate change is anticipated to affect disease agents (parasites and pathogens), hosts, and vectors across the different stages of invasions. We highlight the opportunity to integrate these disciplines to identify the effects of climate change on invasion related wildlife diseases. In addition, shifting to a proactive stance in implementing management and policy, such as by incorporating climate-change effects either into preventative and mitigation measures for biosecurity or with rapid response protocols to limit disease spread and impacts, could help to combat future ecological, economic, and human health risks stemming from invasion-related wildlife diseases.

Released April 23, 2025 07:58 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5029

Andrew S. Gendaszek, Anya Clare Leach, Kristin Jaeger

Water temperature is a primary control on the occurrence and distribution of fish and other ectothermic aquatic species. In the Pacific Northwest, cold-water species such as Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) have specific temperature requirements during different life stages that must be met to ensure the viability of their populations. Rivers draining Mount Rainier in western Washington, including the White River along its northern flank, support a number of cold-water fish populations, but the spatial distribution of water temperatures, particularly during late-summer baseflow during August and September, and the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes regulating it are not well constrained. Spatial stream network (SSN) models, which are generalized linear models that incorporate streamwise spatial autocovariance structures, were fit to mean and 7-day average daily maximum water temperature for August and September for the White River Basin. The SSN models were calibrated using water temperature measurements collected in 2010 through 2020. The extent of the models included the White River and its tributaries upstream from its confluence with Silver Creek in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. SSN models incorporated covariates hypothesized to represent the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes that influence water temperature. SSN models were fit to the measured data and compared to generalized linear models that lacked spatial autocovariance structures. Statistically significant covariates within the best-fit models included the proportion of ice cover and forest cover within the basin, mean August air temperature, the proportion of consolidated geologic units, and snow-water equivalent. Statistical models that included spatial autocovariance structures had better predictive performance than those that did not. Additionally, models of mean August and September water temperature had better predictive performance than those of 7-day average daily maximum temperature in August and September. Predictions of the spatial distribution of water temperature were similar between August and September with a general warming in the downstream part of the mainstem White River compared to cooler water temperatures in the high-elevation headwater streams. The proportion of ice cover emerged as an inversely related significant covariate to both mean August and September water temperature because streams that receive glacial meltwater are colder than non-glaciated streams. Water temperatures of the upper White River increased downstream and are attributed to warming of water temperature from accumulated solar radiation and inflow of non-glaciated tributaries. Estimated water temperatures for the upper White River model are 3–4 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer for tributaries, but 1–2 °C cooler for the mainstem compared to the regional-scale model. Differences between the upper White River SSN model and the regional-scale NorWeST model are attributed to the fact that the upper White River SSN included water temperature observations specific to the upper White River, whereas water temperature observations from lower elevation streams and downstream from the Mount Rainer National Park boundary were used in the regional scale model.

Released April 23, 2025 07:53 EST

2025, Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry (JAAS) (40) 1402

Stijm Glorie, Jay Michael Thompson, Sarah E. Gilbert, Amanda (Kate) Souders

In situ Re–Os geochronology by LA-ICP-MS/MS was previously demonstrated by reacting Os with CH₄ or N₂O reaction gasses. However, for both reactions, a minor proportion of the Re parent isotope also reacts, potentially leading to significant isobaric interferences of ¹⁸⁷Re on ¹⁸⁷Os, especially for young samples with little radiogenic in-growth. Here we present an interlaboratory comparison and compare three reaction gas mixtures (CH₄ + H₂ + He, N₂O and N₂O + He) with the aim to robustly date Palaeogene (66–23 Ma) molybdenite from the Bingham Canyon and Henderson deposits. CH₄ mixed with H₂ gas gives the highest sensitivity, while N₂O and He gas buffer Re reaction. On balance, the analytical method involving N₂O + He reaction gas is most suitable for dating Palaeogene molybdenite, resulting in age precision of 2.6% for Bingham and 5.8% for Henderson. For older, >1 Ga molybdenite, CH₄ + H₂ + He may give comparatively better age precision.

Released April 22, 2025 10:44 EST

2025, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (123)

Nathan J. Wood, Jeff Peters, Anne F Sheehan, Doug Bausch

Previous efforts to characterize tsunami threats to people have focused primarily on individual scenarios in specific areas but have not recognized multiple scenarios across an entire country. This study addresses this gap by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to 102 earthquake-related, tsunami-hazard zones, including 92 local scenarios, 8 distant scenarios, and 2 probabilistic products. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential and the influence of departure delays. We focused on residents to support other national, multi-hazard risk analyses. Millions of residents are in distant-tsunami zones, and hundreds of thousands of residents are in local-tsunami zones. In 41 scenarios, there is at least one resident that may have insufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Tens of thousands of residents may have insufficient time to evacuate from local tsunamis that impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest or Puerto Rican coastlines. The largest improvements in evacuation potential may come from reducing departure delays in some areas but may involve vertical-evacuation structures or changing land use in other areas.

Released April 22, 2025 09:20 EST

2025, Journal of Foraminiferal Research (55) 131-143

Caitlin E. Reynolds, Jennifer S. Fehrenbacher, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Eric J. Tappa, Julie N. Richey

The vast majority of planktic foraminiferal culture studies have been carried out on spinose species of foraminifera, with relatively few studies on non-spinose species. We conducted a pilot study to test whether live specimens of the non-spinose planktic foraminifera, Globorotalia truncatulinoides and Globorotalia menardii, could be successfully harvested from offshore plankton tow samples in the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico) and kept alive in a laboratory at the US Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center. We collected several G. truncatulinoides specimens (n = 39) from the surface mixed-layer (0–80 meters) via vertical plankton tow in February 2020 during a sediment trap mooring recovery cruise. We collected G. menardii (n = 27) from the upper 200 meters of the water column on follow-up cruises in December 2021 and November 2022. The G. truncatulinoides specimens stayed alive in the laboratory for 8–76 days, and G. menardii for 7–29 days. All non-spinose foraminifera in this study showed a strong preference for eating marine snow aggregates from the plankton tow over Artemia nauplii. Using a combination of morphometric observations and geochemical analysis of the foraminiferal tests, we demonstrate that some specimens of both species grew new chambers while in culture, whereas other individuals added a calcite crust to the final whorl. The G. menardii were cultured in ⁸⁷Sr-labeled seawater, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) was used to verify the presence of laboratory-grown calcite. Our results shed light on the feeding behavior and growth patterns in these two upper-ocean species of non-spinose foraminifera. This study demonstrates the feasibility of conducting laboratory culture experiments with G. truncatulinoides and G. menardii collected via plankton tow in the open ocean.

Released April 22, 2025 08:15 EST

2025, Ecology Letters (28)

James Grace, Nick Huntington-Klein, E. William Schweiger, Melinda Martinez, Michael Osland, Laura C. Feher, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Karen M. Thorne

The scientific aspiration of building causal knowledge has received little explicit discussion in ecology despite its fundamental importance. When methods are described as ‘causal’, emphasis is increasingly placed on statistical techniques for isolating associations so as to quantify causal effects. In contrast, natural scientists have historically approached the pursuit of causal knowledge through the investigation of mechanisms that interconnect the components of systems. In this paper, we first summarise a recently published multievidence paradigm for causal studies meant to reconcile conflicting viewpoints. We then describe some of the basic principles of causal statistics and the challenge of estimating pure causal effects. We follow that by describing basic principles related to causal mechanistic investigations, which focus on characterising the structures and processes conveying causal effects. While causal statistics focuses on estimating effect sizes, mechanistic investigations focus on characterising the attributes of the underlying structures and processes linking causative agents to responses. There are important differences between how one approaches each endeavour, as well as differences in what is obtained from each type of investigation. Finally, the case is made that an explicit assessment of existing mechanistic knowledge should be an initial step in causal investigations.

Released April 22, 2025 08:00 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1013

John H. Williams, William M. Kappel, Joshua C. Woda

The hydrogeologic framework at closed-loop geothermal sites in the Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau of central and western New York is the result of the complex interaction of bedrock geology, glacial geology, and groundwater hydrology, and the occurrence of petroleum and gas. Considerations for closed-loop geothermal bore installation include the thickness and character of glacial deposits, bedrock solubility and depth to competent rock, karst development, the distribution of highly permeable zones and their hydraulic heads, and the presence of saline water, gas, and oil. The hydrogeology of the Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau poses challenges to closed-loop geothermal bore drilling and casing; managing drill cuttings, discharge water, and gas; and grouting. The potential to encounter severe challenges typically increases with bore depth. This report highlights hydrogeologic considerations for closed-loop geothermal bore installation in New York’s Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau to help guide the efficient and safe development of geothermal resources in the regions.