Released March 27, 2025 14:00 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3012

Margaret C. McEachran, Katie M. Guntly-Yancey, Richard E.W. Berl, Donald Gentry, Michael C. Runge, Carl White, Jonathan D. Cook

Project Overview: The Klamath Tribes (TKT) are the Klamath, Modoc, and Yahooskin Paiute peoples, and are the first peoples of the land, having lived in ancestral lands of Oregon and California since time immemorial. Members of TKT have rights to hunt, fish, trap, and gather, including the harvest of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni) within the 1.19 million acres of their Reserved Treaty Rights Area.

Anthropogenic changes threaten the well-being of mule deer and elk and of the Tribes that rely on them. Today, these species are a primary protein source for TKT. They are traded within TKT and among other Tribes and provide materials for cultural and sacred items such as regalia. However, mule deer numbers have been declining across the western states for the past several decades because of multiple stressors, including persistent and frequent drought and wildfires, habitat loss and degradation, vehicle mortality, and increasing barriers to migratory movements between summer and winter ranges. The migratory movements of mule deer, which allow deer to access the best available seasonal habitats, put them at risk of another potential stressor—infection with chronic wasting disease (CWD). Chronic wasting disease is a fatal prion disease of deer that has been detected in 36 U.S. states. It was detected in free-ranging mule deer in northern Idaho in 2021, prompting the Tribes to initiate a planning process for CWD surveillance, prevention, and response measures to preserve and protect the deer and elk within the Reserved Treaty Rights Area.

In 2023, the Klamath Tribes Natural Resources Department began to develop their CWD plan by incorporating preliminary input provided by the Klamath Indian Game Commission (KIGC) and working with scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This collaborative effort includes the application of structured decision making and the development of mathematical models to analyze potential CWD management strategies. The result will be a transparent assessment that incorporates TKT values throughout the process and can inform place-based management of the cultural, natural, and physical resources upon which the Tribes depend. In addition, this process may provide opportunities for broader coordination by natural resource management agencies to work together to ensure the long-term health and sustainability of deer and elk populations within the Reserved Treaty Rights Area and throughout the state of Oregon.

Released March 27, 2025 11:37 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5110

Tyler V. King, Alysa M. Yoder

Total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads in the Boise River near Parma, Idaho, were examined to identify changes by month over a 19-year period from water year 2003 through water year 2021 and to evaluate the performance of three common water-quality models. Mean annual TP concentrations and loads were estimated to have reduced by approximately 60 percent over the study period. Mean annual TP concentrations were reduced from 0.42 milligrams per liter in 2003 to 0.18 milligrams per liter in 2021. Mean annual TP loads were reduced from 816 kilograms per day in 2003 to 302 kilograms per day in 2021. Mean annual concentrations and loads reduced by approximately 3 percent per year with the largest changes occurring in the non-irrigation season of October through April. The TP load remained highest in May across the model period while peak concentration shifted from January to March.

High-frequency TP data collected with an automated sampler every 49 hours enabled detailed model performance evaluation of the Load Estimator (LOADEST), Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), and WRTDS method with Kalman filtering (WRTDS_K) water-quality models generated with near-monthly data. All three models were generally able to reproduce the observed concentrations, with the largest errors occurring in the spring when observed concentrations were most variable. Annual TP loads varied by up to 27 percent, or approximately 128,000 kilograms, between the three models calibrated on monthly data. In this system with highly variable concentrations, we note that performance metrics for WRTDS_K based on monthly calibration data masked serious errors that were only revealed by comparing results against higher frequency (49-hour) autosampler data. This emphasizes the value of high frequency validation data to quantify uncertainty in water-quality models when applied to systems where concentrations change rapidly. Lastly, we identify that hydraulic routing may be a valuable addition to discharge, season, and time in water-quality modeling for systems with significant human intervention in natural hydro-biogeochemical processes.

Released March 27, 2025 11:18 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2021-1030-U

Mahesh Shrestha, Aparajithan Sampath, Minsu Kim, Seonkyung Park, Jeffrey Clauson

Executive Summary 

This report documents the system characterization of the Indian Space Research Organisation Resourcesat-2A Linear Imaging Self Scanning-4 (LISS–4) sensor. It is part of a series of system characterization reports produced by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports describe the methodology and procedures used for characterization, present technical and operational information about the specific sensing system being evaluated, and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions.

Resourcesat-2A was launched in 2016 on the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle-C36; it is identical to Resourcesat-2, and together, they decrease imaging revisit time from 5 days to 2–3 days, providing data continuity and improved temporal resolution. Resouresat-2 and 2A carry the Advanced Wide Field Sensor, Linear Imaging Self Scanning-3, and LISS–4 medium-resolution imaging sensors, continuing the legacy of the Indian Space Research Organisation’s Indian Remote Sensing-1C/1D/P3 satellite programs. More information about the Indian Space Research Organisation’s satellites and sensors is available through the Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation Earth Observing Satellites Online Compendium at https://calval.cr.usgs.gov/apps/compendium/ and from the manufacturer at https://www.isro.gov.in/.

The Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization team assessed the geometric, radiometric, and spatial performances of the Resourcesat-2A LISS–4 sensor. Geometric performance is divided into the interior geometric performance of band-to-band registration and the exterior geometric performance of geolocation accuracy. The interior geometric performance had mean offsets in the range of −0.118 to 0.024 pixel in easting and −0.053 to 0.022 pixel in northing with root mean square error values from 0.067 to 0.230 pixel in easting and from 0.087 to 0.2 pixel in northing. The exterior geometric performance had offsets in the range of 2.55 to 7.85 meters (m) in easting and −6.15 to 11.15 m in northing with root mean square error values in the range of 2.6 to 8.2 m in easting and 6.35 to 11.8 m in northing compared to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agriculture Imagery Program and WorldView-3 orthoimages. The measured radiometric performance had offsets from 0.003 to 0.024 and slopes from 0.736 to 0.952, and spatial performance was in the range of 1.633 to 1.903 pixels for the full width at half maximum with a modulation transfer function at a Nyquist frequency in the range of 0.0529 to 0.0952.

Released March 26, 2025 16:15 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3002

George N. D. Case, Garth E. Graham, Christopher Lawley, Evgeniy Bastrakov, David Huston, Albert H. Hofstra, Vladimir Lisitsin, Steph Hawkins, Bronwen Wang

Critical minerals are commodities essential to modern industrial and strategic technologies and are highly vulnerable to supply chain disruption. The Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative (CMMI) is a collaboration among the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Geological Survey of Canada, and Geoscience Australia that aims to deepen global understanding of where critical minerals are located. A key output of this initiative is the Critical Minerals in Ores (CMiO) database that is advancing our collective understanding of critical minerals distributions. For instance, publicly available data on the concentrations of many critical minerals are sparse because these commodities can only be produced in small, yet essential, quantities compared to the primary commodities like copper and zinc. The CMiO database helps bridge this gap by offering high-quality, multielement geochemical data from a wide variety of critical mineral-bearing deposits around the world. Importantly, it uses a novel consensus deposit environment, group, and type classification scheme developed by the agencies that allows comparisons among ore deposits from different regions. The CMiO database contains geochemical data for more than 20,000 samples from more than 100 deposit types comprising 10 deposit environments.

Released March 25, 2025 10:22 EST

2025, Movement Ecology (13)

Toshio Doroff Matsuoka, Vijay P. Patil, Jerry W. Hupp, Alan G. Leach, John Reed, James S. Sedinger, David H. Ward

Background

Since the 1980s, Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans, hereafter brant) have shifted their winter distribution northward from Mexico to Alaska (approximately 4500 km) with changes in climate. Alongside this shift, the primary breeding population of brant has declined. To understand the population-level implications of the changing migration strategy of brant, it is important to connect movement and demographic data. Our objectives were to calculate migratory connectivity, a measure of spatial and temporal overlap during the non-breeding period, for Arctic and subarctic breeding populations of brant, and to determine if variation in migration strategies affected nesting phenology and nest survival.

Methods

We derived a migratory network using light-level geolocator migration tracks from an Arctic site (Colville River Delta) and a subarctic site (Tutakoke River) in Alaska. Using this network, we quantified the migratory connectivity of the two populations during the winter. We also compared nest success rates among brant that used different combinations of winter sites and breeding sites.

Results

The two breeding populations were well mixed during the winter, as indicated by a migratory connectivity score close to 0 (− 0.06) at the primary wintering sites of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska (n = 11 brant) and Baja California, Mexico (n = 48). However, Arctic birds were more likely to migrate the shorter distance to Izembek (transition probability = 0.24) compared to subarctic birds (transition probability = 0.09). Nest survival for both breeding populations was relatively high (0.88–0.92), and we did not detect an effect of wintering site on nest success the following year.

Conclusions

Nest survival of brant did not differ among brant that used wintering sites despite a 4500 km difference in migration distances. Our results also suggested that the growing Arctic breeding population is unlikely to compensate for declines in the larger breeding population of brant in the subarctic. However, this study took place in 2011–2014 and wintering at Izembek Lagoon may have greater implications for reproductive success under future climate conditions.

Released March 25, 2025 10:05 EST

2025, Geosphere

Michael C. Sitar, John S. Singleton, Jeffrey M. Rahl, Jonathan Caine, Jacob King, Andrew R C Kylander-Clark, Paul O’Sullivan

The Sangre de Cristo Range in southern Colorado exposes some of the deepest Cenozoic structural levels in the Rocky Mountain region, including mylonitic shear zones associated with both the Laramide orogeny and Rio Grande rift. We investigated the relation between Laramide contraction and Rio Grande rift extension with detailed geologic mapping, kinematic analysis, and geochronometry in a 50 km² area centered on the Independence Mine shear zone (IMSZ). The 15−100-m-thick IMSZ is one of several shallowly to moderately (∼45° ± 20°) W-SW−dipping brittle-plastic shear zones along the western flank of the range. These shear zones display microstructural evidence of initiation as top-NE contractional mylonite zones, consistent with regional Laramide kinematics, which have been pervasively overprinted by shear fabrics indicating top-SW extensional reactivation. Both top-NE and top-SW shear fabrics involve cataclasis and quartz dislocation creep, although top-SW shear is more commonly localized along phyllosilicate-lined shear bands. Shear zones are hosted predominately within Proterozoic gneiss, and contain abundant chlorite and white mica derived from alteration of hornblende and feldspar, which indicates that weakening driven by fluid reactions played an important role in localizing strain. Extensional overprinting appears to be most pervasive along more steeply dipping portions of shear zones and where secondary phyllosilicates form an interconnected weak phase, which suggests that reactivation was primarily controlled by geometry and rheological contrasts inherited from contraction. One top-SW shear zone adjacent to the IMSZ cuts a late Oligocene gabbro stock, and monazite grains synkinematic with top-SW shear in the IMSZ yielded late Oligocene to Early Miocene U-Th-Pb dates that correspond with initiation of the Rio Grande rift. Reactivation of weak reverse faults may represent an important structural control during initial extension in the middle crust, prior to slip along the high-angle Sangre de Cristo normal fault system.

Released March 24, 2025 14:45 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3006

Martin A. Briggs, David M. Rey, Chad C. Opatz, Neil C. Terry, Connor P. Newman, Lance R. Gruhn, Carole D. Johnson

Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing instruments harness the temperature-dependent properties of glass to measure temperature continuously along optical fibers by using precise pulses of laser light. In the mid-2000s, this technology was refined for environmental monitoring purposes such as snowpack-air exchange, groundwater/surface-water exchange, and lake-water stratification. Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing has revealed unprecedented details about preferential flow processes; however, the method is labor intensive and requires specific training, resulting in limited use by the broader water community. With the ongoing national implementation of the U.S. Geological Survey Next Generation Water Observing System, there has been renewed interest in harnessing the unique spatiotemporal monitoring capabilities of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. This fact sheet briefly describes this technology, highlights uses by the U.S. Geological Survey, and discusses current applications and future opportunities.

Released March 24, 2025 08:13 EST

2025, Scientific Data (12)

Lucila Marie Corro, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Mehdi Heris, Peter Christian Ibsen, Karen Schleeweis, James E. Diffendorfer, Austin Troy, Kevin Megown, Jarlath P.M. O'Neil-Dunne

Moderate-resolution (30-m) national map products have limited capacity to represent fine-scale, heterogeneous urban forms and processes, yet improvements from incorporating higher resolution predictor data remain rare. In this study, we applied random forest models to high-resolution land cover data for 71 U.S. urban areas, moderate-resolution National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Tree Canopy Cover (TCC), and additional explanatory climatic and structural data to develop an enhanced urban TCC dataset for U.S. urban areas. With a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.747, our model estimated TCC within 3% for 62 urban areas and added 13.4% more city-level TCC on average, compared to the native NLCD TCC product. Cross validations indicated model stability suitable for building a national-scale TCC dataset (median R² of 0.752, 0.675, and 0.743 for 1,000-fold cross validation, urban area leave-one-out cross validation, and cross validation by Census block group median year built, respectively). Additionally, our model code can be used to improve moderate-resolution TCC in other parts of the world where high-resolution land cover data have limited spatiotemporal availability.

Released March 23, 2025 08:08 EST

2025, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (130)

Anthony Francis Pivarunas, Margaret Susan Avery, Jonathan T. Hagstrum, Scott E.K. Bennett, Andrew T. Calvert

The Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB) is part of the Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The PGB, which outcrops in eastern Oregon, is considered coincident in time with the voluminous Grande Ronde Basalt. New radiometric ages have expanded the age‐range of the PGB, suggesting it began erupting prior to the Steens Basalt to its south and continued until after cessation of the Grande Ronde Basalt eruptions, an interval of 1.5 Ma. However, the existing paleomagnetism of the PGB implies this eruption timeline is an overestimate. To reconcile the radiometric and paleomagnetic timescales for the PGB, we conducted a paleomagnetic study on sections of the PGB to construct a detailed, high‐quality magnetostratigraphy. Our data indicate the stratigraphically lowest lava flows in the PGB are of reversed polarity, revealing a new paleomagnetic transition with the PGB and a reversed (R)–normal (N)–reversed (R) sequence. This suggests one of two timeline possibilities for PGB volcanism: (a) eruptions began and during through CRBG polarity chrons R0–N0–R1, penecontemporaneous with Steens Basalt, or (b) eruptions began and persisted during CRBG polarity chrons R1–N1–R2. Our work supports a longer interval of PGB volcanism than was suggested by previous paleomagnetic data but is at odds with the suggestion that PGB eruptions lasted through the entire main CRBG. We favor a scenario wherein PGB eruptions begin with R0 and continue into the R1 paleomagnetic interval. The paleomagnetic results also record a ∼18° vertical‐axis rotation of east‐central Oregon after ∼16 Ma with respect to stable North America.

Released March 21, 2025 09:28 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

K. Dana Chadwick, Frank W. Davis, Kimberley Miner, Ryan Pavlick, Mark Reynolds, Philip A. Townsend, Philip Brodrick, Christiana Ade, Jean Allen, Leander D. L. Anderegg, Yoseline Angel, Indra Boving, Kristin B. Byrd, Petya Campbell, Luke Carberry, Katherine Cavanaugh, Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Kelly Easterday, Regina Eckert, Michelle M. Gierach, Kaitlin Gold, Erin Hestir, Fred Huemmrich, Maggie Klope, Raymond F. Kokaly, Piper Lovegreen, Kelly Luis, Conor McMahon, Nicholas Nidzieko, Francisco Ochoa, Anna Ongjoco, Elsa Ordway, Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell, Natalie Queally, Dar A. Roberts, Clare Saiki, Fabian D Schneider, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, German Silva, Jordan Snyder, Michele Thornton, Anna Trugman, Nidhi Vinod, Ting Zheng, Dulcinea M. Avouris, Brianna Baker, Latha Baskaran, Tom Bell, Megan Berg, Michael Bernas, Niklas Bohn, Renato Braghiere, Zach Breuer, Andrew J. Brooks, Nolan Burkard, Julia Burmistrova, Kerry-Anne Cawse-Nicholson, John Chapman, Johana Chazaro-Haraksin, Joel Cryer, K.C. Cushman, Kyla M. Dahlin, Phuong Dao, Athena DiBartolo, Michael Eastwood, Clayton D. Elder, Angela Giordani, Kathleen Grant, Robert O. Green, Alexa Hanson, Brendan Heberlein, Mark Helmlinger, Simon Hook, Daniel J. Jensen, Emma Johnson, Marie Johnson, Michael Kiper, Christopher Kibler, Jennifer Y. King, Kyle Kovach, Aaron Kreisberg, Daniel Lacey, Evan Lang, Christine M. Lee, Amanda M Lopez, Brittany Lopez Barreto, Andrew Maguire, Elliott Marsh, Charles E. Miller, Dieu My Nguyen, Cassandra Nickles, Jonathan Ocón, Elijah Papen, Maria Park, Benjamin Poulter, Ann M. Raiho, Porter Reim, Timothy J. Robinson, Fernando Romero Galvan, Ethan Shafron, Brenen R. Skalitzky, Sydney Stroschein, Nicole Chin Taylor, David R. Thompson, Kate Thompson, Cecily Tye, Joelie Van Beek, Cecilia Vanden Heuvel, Jonathan Vellanoweth, Evert Vermeer, Claire Villanueva-Weeks, Kristen Zumdahl, David Schimel

We stand at the threshold of a transformative era in Earth observation, marked by space-borne visible-to-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers that promise consistent global observations of ecosystem function, phenology, and inter- and intra-annual change. However, the full value of repeat spectroscopy, the information embedded within different temporal scales, and the reliability of existing algorithms across diverse ecosystem types and vegetation phenophases have remained elusive due to the absence of suitable sub-seasonal spectroscopy data. In response, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) High-Frequency Time Series (SHIFT) campaign was initiated during late February 2022 in Santa Barbara County, California. SHIFT, designed to support NASA's SBG mission, addressed mission scoping, scientific advancement, applications development, and community building. This ambitious endeavor included weekly Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) imagery acquisitions for 13 weeks (spanning February 24 to May 29, 2022), accompanied by coordinated terrestrial vegetation and coastal aquatic data collection. We describe the rich datasets collected and illustrate how the complex sub-seasonal patterns of change can be linked to biological science and applications, surpassing insights from multispectral observations. Leveraging open-source processing methods and cloud-based analysis tools, the SHIFT campaign showcases the readiness of the scientific community to harness ecological insights from remotely sensed hyperspectral time series. We provide an overview of SHIFT's goals, data collections, preliminary results, and the collaborative efforts of early career scientists committed to unlocking the transformative potential of high-frequency time series data from space-borne VSWIR imaging spectrometers.

Released March 20, 2025 13:10 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1004

Tom D. Byl, Devin M. Moore, Champagne Cunningham, De’Etra Young

The Southeastern United States has many lakes, streams, and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources with recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. However, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. HABs have been listed as a contaminant of emerging concern, and the magnitude, frequency, and duration of HABs appear to be increasing at the global scale. While it is well known that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it is not clear how climate change and other parameters stimulate the development of toxin production by HABs. The scientific literature describes parameters, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, increasing length of growing season, discharge, and hydroperiod, that may affect algae growth and toxin production. Climate and hydrologic models address many of the physical and environmental parameters that influence HABs, but no climate models directly address HABs. This report compiles information from the existing literature pertaining to HABs and the modeling and forecasting of HABS. This compilation is done through the incorporation of climate change models. HAB research that involves climate change will require multiple disciplines that bring together ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, economists, and new technology. Resource managers could use geographic data about the occurrence and distribution of HABs to develop models that identify waterbodies more vulnerable to HAB events. Development of such models will require teams capable of integrating biological, chemical, and physical factors. Model development will require additional research that can resolve anthropogenic and climate-related environmental factors to identify trends in freshwater HABs. The complexity and interconnectedness of the parameters that influence HAB occurrences will make model development challenging and require rigorous regional calibration.

Released March 20, 2025 09:20 EST

2025, Data Report 1202

Joel B. Sankey, Nathaniel D. Bransky, Lori M. Pigue, Keith A. Kohl, Thomas M. Gushue

In May 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center acquired airborne multispectral high-resolution data for the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The image data, which consist of four spectral bands (red, band 1; green, band 2; blue, band 3; and near infrared, band 4) with a ground resolution of 20 centimeters, are available as 16-bit unsigned-integer GeoTIFF files in Sankey and others (2024) (available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BBGN6G). The image files are projected in the State Plane Coordinate System, using the central Arizona zone (202) with the North American Datum of 1983 National Adjustment of 2011. The assessed spatial accuracy for these data is based on 47 ground-control points that were independent from the ground-control points used by the contractor for aerotriangulation and is reported at the 95-percent confidence level as 0.514 meter (m) and a root mean square error of 0.297 m. The intended uses of this dataset are primarily in support of scientific research and monitoring applications. Examples of these applications include high-resolution spatial and temporal change detection of the river channel, geomorphic landforms, riparian vegetation, and backwater and nearshore habitat, as well as other ecosystem-wide mapping. These imagery data also serve as reference material for field science mission planning, as base data for field data collection including community science activities, and as a highly detailed guide for technical boat operation during science activities such as reconnaissance for nighttime missions and navigating rapids during low flows.

Released March 20, 2025 08:09 EST

2025, Climate of the Past (21) 661-677

Jade Margerum, Julia Homann, Stuart Umbo, Gernot Nehrke, Thorsten Hoffmann, Anton Vaks, Aleksandr Kononov, Alexander Osintsev, Alena Maria Giesche, Andrew Mason, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Gideon M. Henderson, Ola Kwiecien, Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach

Wildfires are a rapidly increasing threat to boreal forests. While our understanding of the drivers behind wildfires and their environmental impact is growing, it is mostly limited to the observational period. Here we focus on the boreal forests of southern Siberia and exploit a U–Th-dated stalagmite from Botovskaya Cave, located in the upper Lena region of southern Siberia, to document wildfire activity and vegetation dynamics during parts of two warm periods: the Last Interglacial (LIG; specifically part of the Last Interglacial maximum between 124.1 and 118.8 ka) and the Holocene (10–0 ka). Our record is based on levoglucosan (Lev), a biomarker sensitive to biomass burning, and on lignin oxidation products (LOPs) that discriminate between open and closed forest and hard- or softwood vegetation. In addition, we used carbonate carbon stable isotope ratios (δ¹³C), which reflect a dominant control of the host rock, to evaluate soil respiration and local infiltration changes. Our LOP data suggest that, during the Last Interglacial, the region around Botovskaya Cave was characterised by open forest, which by ca. 121.5 ka underwent a transition from fire-resistant hardwood to fire-prone softwood. The Lev record indicates that fire activity was high and increased towards the end of Last Interglacial just before 119 ka. In contrast, the Holocene was characterised by a closed-forest environment with mixed hard- and softwood vegetation. Holocene fire activity varied but at a much lower level than during the Last Interglacial. We attribute the changes in wildfire activity during the intervals of interest to the interplay between vegetation and climate. The open forests of the Last Interglacial were more likely to ignite than their closed Holocene equivalents, and their flammability was aided by warmer and drier summers and a stronger seasonal temperature contrast due to the increase in seasonal insolation difference compared to the Holocene. Our comparison of the last two interglacial intervals suggests that, with increasing global temperatures, the boreal forest of southern Siberia may become progressively more vulnerable to higher wildfire activity.

Released March 19, 2025 11:57 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5013

Evin J. Fetkovich, Amy S. Morris, Isaac A. Dale, Chloe Codner, Ethan A. Kirby, Colin A. Baciocco, Ian M.J. Rogers, Derrick L. Wagner, Zachary D. Tomlinson, Eric G. Fiorentino

The 1973 Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute §82–1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin. Every 20 years, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board is required to update the hydrologic investigation on which the maximum annual yield determinations were based. The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is used to set the equal-proportionate share pumping rate. The maximum annual yield of 5,913,600 acre-feet per year and equal-proportionate-share of 2.1 acre-feet per acre per year currently (2025) in place for the Antlers aquifer were issued by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board on February 14, 1995. Because more than 20 years have elapsed since the 1995 final order for the Antlers aquifer was issued, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an in-depth hydrologic study that included a hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model for the 1980–2022 study period.

The results of an analysis of land use, long-term climate patterns, streamflow and base-flow patterns, historical groundwater use, as well as groundwater-level fluctuations across the Antlers aquifer are described. In addition, groundwater quality was analyzed for total dissolved solids concentrations and major ions for the Antlers aquifer. An updated hydrogeologic framework was developed that included refining the aquifer boundary in Oklahoma, the creation of new potentiometric surface and saturated thickness of fresh groundwater maps, one multiple-well aquifer test, slug tests, and an analysis of lithologic logs across the aquifer. A conceptual groundwater flow model and water budget were developed by incorporating estimates of recharge from precipitation, saturated-zone evapotranspiration, streambed seepage, lateral groundwater flows, vertical leakage, and withdrawals from groundwater wells.

Released March 19, 2025 11:45 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2024-3050

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kira K. Timm

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 1.2 billion barrels of oil and 6.4 trillion cubic feet of gas in Oman.

Released March 19, 2025 09:32 EST

2025, Applied Geochemistry (184)

R. Blaine McCleskey, Charles A. Cravotta III, Matthew P. Miller, Tanner William Chapin, Fred D. Tillman, Gabrielle L. Keith

Salinity levels in streams and tributaries of the Colorado River Basin have been a major concern for the United States and Mexico for over 50 years as the water is used by millions of people for domestic and industrial purposes. Recently, the United States Geological Survey expanded stream monitoring networks including the number of sites where continuous (15-min) specific conductance is measured in the Colorado River Headwaters and Gunnison River Basin located east of the Colorado-Utah state line (hereafter, UCOL). The purpose of this study is to apply a proxy method to determine salinity and total dissolved solids concentrations from specific conductance and major-ion water type that is applicable to monitoring sites in the UCOL. Within the UCOL, carbonate rich waters originate from high-elevation mountain regions in the eastern UCOL, calcium sulfate rich waters are mainly found in the western half of the UCOL including the Gunnison River Basin, and waters of variable composition are found along the lower reaches of the Colorado River and Eagle River. It was found that the chemistry of sites with variable composition changes seasonally and is impacted by both geogenic and anthropogenic processes, potentially including seasonal application of deicing road salt. The specific conductance – water type proxy can be used to reliably (±10 %) predict salinity and total dissolved solids at 66 monitoring sites in the UCOL. The method is rapid, can generate high-resolution measurements, is cost-effective, and greatly expands the utility of specific conductance measurements. Furthermore, the high-resolution estimates provide an accurate approach to determining long-term salinity loads as short-term events are accurately accounted for.

Released March 19, 2025 07:56 EST

2025, Seismological Research Letters

Bruce E. Shaw, Kevin Ross Milner, Christine A. Goulet

We use the deterministic earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate complex sequences of ruptures on fault systems used for hazard assessment. We show that the source motions combined with a wave propagation code create surface ground motions that fall within the range of epistemic uncertainties for the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 set of empirical models. We show the model is well calibrated where there are good data constraints, and has good correspondence in regions with fewer data constraints. We show magnitude, distance, and mechanism dependence all arising naturally from the same underlying friction. The deterministic physics‐based approach provides an opportunity for better understanding the physical origins of ground motions. For example, we find that reduced stress drops in shallow layers relative to constant stress drop with depth lead to peak ground velocities in the near field that better match empirical models. The simulators may also provide better extrapolations into regimes that are poorly empirically constrained by data because physics, rather than surface shaking data parameterizations, is underlying the extrapolations. Having shown the model is credible, we apply it to a problem where observations are lacking. We examine the case of crustal faults above a shallow subduction interface seen to break coseismically in simulations of the New Zealand fault system. These types of events were left out of consideration in the most recent New Zealand national seismic hazard model due to the modeling complexity and lack of observational data to constrain ground‐motion models (GMMs). Here, we show that in the model, by breaking up the coseismic crustal and interface rupturing fault motions into two separate subevents, and then recombining the resulting ground‐motion measures in a square‐root‐of‐sum‐of‐squares incoherent manner, we reproduce well the ground‐motion measures from the full event rupture. This provides a new method for extrapolating GMMs to more complex multifault ruptures.

Released March 18, 2025 16:15 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2024-3037

Annie Simpson, Mark T. Wiltermuth, Mireya Dorado

The pervasive and insidious threat of invasive species costs the United States more than $120 billion, annually. An invasive species is an organism that is not native to a locality and causes (or is likely to cause) harm. An introduced species is one that is nonnative to a locality and occurs there because of human activities or their consequences, including the species’ intentional or unintentional escape, release, dissemination, or placement. The United States Register of Introduced and Invasive Species (US-RIIS, ver. 2.0) contains 14,700 records for three localities: Alaska (545 records), Hawaii (5,628 records), and the conterminous United States (L48; 8,527 records). For these localities, the US-RIIS catalogs introduced species that have become established, thus providing a basis for their prioritization and management. To be included on the US-RIIS, a species must be nonnative to the entire locality and reproducing anywhere in the locality. Each US-RIIS record has information on taxonomy, dates of introduction (where available; version 2.0 for 47 percent of the records), invasion status (invasive or introduced), use for biocontrol (if applicable), and a citation for the information source(s). The US-RIIS was designed to be compatible with country contributions to the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species Initiative, which compiles annotated and verified country-wide inventories of introduced and invasive species. Within the US-RIIS, the density of introduced species per 10,000 square kilometers among the localities ranges markedly, from 3 in Alaska to 1,988 in Hawaii (11 in the L48). The comparative taxonomic composition of the largest groups in the sublists also varies: the Alaska sublist has a majority of flowering plants; Hawaii has a majority of insects; and the L48 is about equally divided between insects and flowering plants. Another benefit of the US-RIIS is that it provides a baseline for effective modeling of species trends and interactions, geospatially and temporally; therefore, it can also be used to track introduced sleeper species that will eventually become invasive.

Released March 18, 2025 09:37 EST

2025, Fish and Fisheries

David Benoit, Daniel Zielinski, Reid G Swanson, Donald Jackson, Robert L. McLaughlin, Theodore Castro-Santos, R. Andrew Goodwin, Thomas C. Pratt, Andrew M. Muir

The importance of connectivity for freshwater organisms is widely recognised, yet in-stream barriers associated with population declines and increased risk of extinction remain globally ubiquitous. Despite their negative consequences, these barriers can protect aquatic communities by limiting the spread of invasive species, leading to conflicting management goals in some regions. Selective fish passage is a solution for the conflicting goals of passing native, desirable species while restricting the spread of invasives. Approaches that can target groups of species sharing similar attributes (i.e. guilds) are likely to be more efficient than those that target species individually, particularly in taxonomically diverse systems. We explored the guild structure of 220 Great Lakes freshwater fishes based on morphological, phenological, physiological and behavioural attributes associated with passage and movement. We identified five distinct guilds as well as the attributes most important for defining these groupings: maximum total length, trophic level, relative eye size, spawning temperature, spawning season, presence/absence of ampullary electroreceptors and the presence/absence of hearing specialisations. The approaches outlined in this work can be generalised to enhance selective fish passage in aquatic ecosystems worldwide.

Released March 17, 2025 11:28 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2023-1066

Stacie A. Hathaway, James D. Jacobi, Robert Peck, Adam R. Backlin, Cynthia J. Hitchcock, Robert N. Fisher

Introduction

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) issued funds to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to update the biosecurity plan, create a current (2019) flora and fauna species identification index, and do container evaluations for the presence of potential invasives. The current (2019) biosecurity protocols used for prevention were evaluated, and new biodiversity surveys were completed for terrestrial vegetation and arthropods and included the first formal reptile surveys. Results from field efforts add to existing knowledge and may identify new species arrivals to Wake.

One goal of this project was to update and compile established species information for the atoll and create species identification guides for the three taxonomic groups surveyed. We made these flora and fauna species identification guides by compiling results of the recent (2019) and historical surveys. The guides can be used as resident desktop references, as a baseline for assessing future natural resource surveys, and to assist with guiding management actions. We refer herein to biosecurity and integrated pest management plan materials, which we created simultaneously to inform current (2019) biosecurity and to identify some of the top invasive species at Wake. This study was done in cooperation with the USAF, and surveys were performed for the 611th Civil Engineer Squadron Natural Resources Program, ACES PROJECT #YGFZ170002 under agreement number F2MUAA7116GW02 between the USAF and the USGS Western Ecological Research Center.

Released March 17, 2025 11:20 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5007

Michael N. Fienen, Laura A. Schachter, Randall J. Hunt

The history-matching approach to parameter estimation with models enables a powerful offshoot analysis of data worth—using the uncertainty of a model forecast as a metric for the worth of data. Adding observation data will either have no impact on forecast uncertainty or will reduce it. Removing existing data will either have no impact on forecast uncertainty or will increase it. The history-matching framework makes it possible to perform this quantitative analysis leveraging the connections among observations, model parameters, and model forecasts. We show this behavior on a specific groundwater flow model of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain and show where the analysis can be informative for considering the potential design of an observation network based on existing or potential observations.

Released March 17, 2025 10:48 EST

2025, Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Jeffrey M. Lorch, A. Tobin, Alexandria Annelise Argue, Valerie I. Shearn-Bochsler, Brenda M. Berlowski-Zier, Kyle George, Katherine H. Haman, Anne Ballmann

The impacts of white-nose syndrome (WNS) on many bat species in eastern North America have been well documented because of the length of time that the causative agent, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), has been present and the ability to monitor bat hibernacula in that region. However, the disease outcomes for bat species in western North America are less known because of the more recent arrival of Pd and the challenges associated with monitoring hibernating bat populations in parts of the western US. We report on mortality events involving Yuma myotis (Myotis yumanensis) bats at two locations in King and Benton counties, Washington, US, that were attributed to WNS during the late winters of 2020–21 and 2024, respectively. All bats that were grossly examined had depleted subcutaneous white adipose tissue, tested positive for the presence of Pd, had histopathologic lesions consistent with WNS, and did not exhibit evidence of other disease processes that may have contributed to death. Mortality was likely higher than what was documented because the locations of the Pd-contaminated hibernacula from which the bats originated were inaccessible or unknown and thus could not be surveyed. These findings indicate that Yuma myotis may be highly susceptible to WNS, and close monitoring is warranted to understand how WNS will affect population trends in this (and other) western bat species.

Released March 17, 2025 09:50 EST

2025, Ecology and Evolution (15)

Steven J. Hromada, Jason L. Jones, Jocelyn B. Stalker, Dustin A. Wood, A.G. Vandergast, C. Richard Tracy, C.M. Gienger, Kenneth E. Nussear

Describing future habitat for sensitive species can be helpful in planning conservation efforts to ensure species persistence under new climatic conditions. The Gila monster (Heloderma suspectum) is an iconic lizard of the southwestern United States. The northernmost range of Gila monsters is the Mojave Desert, an area experiencing rapid human population growth and urban sprawl. To understand current and potential future habitat for Gila monsters in the Mojave Desert, we fit ensemble species distribution models using known locations and current environmental variables known to be important to the species' biology. We then projected future suitable habitat under different climate forecasts based on IPCC emission scenarios. To ensure that Gila monsters would be able to disperse to newly suitable habitat, we fit Brownian Bridge movement models using telemetry data from two locations in Nevada. This model indicated that Gila monsters prefer to move through areas with a moderate slope and higher shrub cover. Modeled current suitable habitat for Gila monsters in Nevada was primarily in rugged bajadas and lower elevations at the bases of mountain ranges. Predictions of potential future habitat suggested that overall habitat suitability through 2082 would remain relatively stable throughout the study area in the lower emissions scenario, but in the high emissions scenario potential habitat is greatly reduced in many lower-elevation areas. Future habitat areas at higher elevations under the high emissions scenario showed moderate increases in suitability, though occupancy would likely be limited by Gila monster dispersal capabilities. Finally, we determined how well the protected area network of our study area encompassed future Gila monster habitat to highlight potential opportunities to protect this important species.

Released March 17, 2025 09:48 EST

2025, Geochemical Perspectives Letters (34) 25-30

S. Bernard, O. Beyssac, J.A. Manrique, G. Lopez Reyes, A. Ollila, S. Le Mouelic, P.S.A. Beck, P. Pilleri, O. Forni, S. Julve-Gonzales, M. Veneranda, I. Reyes Rodriguez, J.M. Madariaga Mota, J. Aramenda, K. Castro, E. Clave, C. Royer, T. Fornaro, B. Bousquet, S.K. Sharma, J.R. Johnson, E. Cloutis, Travis S.J. Gabriel, P.Y. Meslin, O. Gasnault, A. Cousin, R.C. Wiens, S. Maurice

The Perseverance rover is exploring Jezero crater on Mars, one of its goals being to collect samples to be returned to Earth to search for organic remains of ancient Martian life. However, the organic content of these rocks has likely suffered from the radiation environment on the surface of Mars to an extent yet to be quantified. For the first time, a 1000 sols long ageing experiment was conducted at the surface of Mars, i.e. under actual Martian conditions, relying on the 100 % organic Ertalyte target carried by Perseverance. White at landing, the Ertalyte target has turned brown with time, while its Raman signal changed, with a modification of the background (its maximum has shifted from 1500 to 2000 cm⁻¹) and a reduction of the contribution of the Raman signal of Ertalyte (by a factor of 5 over the first 500 sols). Given the intrinsic resistance of the Ertalyte to UV exposure, which is not anticipated for most Martian organic materials, these results suggest that exposure at the surface of Mars will make the detection of Martian organic molecules challenging.

Released March 16, 2025 11:34 EST

2025, Water Resources Research (3)

Lee R. Harrison, Carl J. Legleiter, Brandon Overstreet, James White

Continuous, high-resolution data for characterizing freshwater habitat conditions can support successful management of endangered salmonids. Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) make acquiring such fine-scale data along river channels more feasible, but workflows for quantifying reach-scale salmon habitats are lacking. We evaluated the potential for UAS-based mapping of hydraulic habitats using spectrally based depth retrieval and particle image velocimetry (PIV) by comparing these methods to a more well-established flow modeling approach. Our results indicated that estimates of water depth, depth-averaged velocity, and flow direction derived via remote sensing and modeling techniques were comparable and in good agreement with field measurements. Predictions of spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) juvenile rearing habitat produced from PIV and model output were similar, with small errors relative to direct field observations. Estimates of hydraulic heterogeneity based on kinetic energy gradients in the flow field were generally consistent between PIV and flow modeling, but errors relative to field measurements were larger. PIV results were sensitive to the velocity index (α) used to convert surface velocities to depth-averaged velocities. Sun glint precluded PIV analysis along the margins of some images and a large degree of overlap between frames was thus required to obtain continuous coverage of the reach. Similarly, shadows cast by riparian vegetation caused gaps in spectrally based bathymetric maps. Despite these limitations, our results suggest that for sites with sufficient water surface texture, UAS-based PIV can provide detailed hydraulic habitat information at the reach scale, with accuracies comparable to traditional field methods and multidimensional flow modeling.

Released March 15, 2025 11:10 EST

2025, Hydrological Processes (39)

Joshua R. Benton, Daniel H. Doctor

Estimates of dynamic groundwater volumes supplying baseflow to streams are important for water availability projections during extended periods of drought. The primary goals of this study were to provide dynamic storage volume estimates, inferred from streamflow recession analysis, for baseflow regimes within seven gaged catchments within the Neversink Reservoir Watershed (NRW), a critical municipal water source for New York City. Additionally, geomorphological properties, surficial geology and hydro-meteorological processes were quantified and described in relation to time and spatially variable recession behaviour and storage estimates across the NRW. To explore these relationships, we (1) evaluated seasonal trends in streamflow recession behaviour in relation to modelled potential evapotranspiration (PET) and catchment runoff rates, (2) derived empirical streamflow models for cool-season runoff using both linear and nonlinear reservoir assumptions for baseflow and (3) calculated metrics related to the geology and geomorphology of each catchment and compared these metrics to area normalised baseflow dynamic storage estimates. Results show that baseflow recession behaves as a nonlinear reservoir, and applying linear groundwater reservoir assumptions may underestimate the total dynamic storage volumes compared to what would be predicted for a nonlinear reservoir. Increases in PET caused decreases in storage conditions that resulted in increased recession rates and nonlinearity in streamflow recession during the growing season. Additionally, we found that while no single physical catchment characteristic solely predicted catchment storage dynamics, sediment volume and stream gradients were stronger predictors of normalised storage volumes than catchment surface area or surface topography alone. Within the NRW, catchments with the highest sediment volume exhibited the lowest recession rates and higher dynamic storage volumes, while the smallest catchment, mostly devoid of sediment, had the fastest recession rate and lowest dynamic storage volume.

Released March 14, 2025 15:26 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5011

Shana L. Mashburn, Evin J. Fetkovich, Hayden A. Lockmiller, Chloe Codner, Ethan Allen Kirby, Isaac A. Dale, Colin A. Baciocco

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer is divided spatially into three parts (eastern, central, and western). The largest groundwater withdrawals are from the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, which provides water to approximately 39,000 people in Ada and Sulphur, Oklahoma, and surrounding areas. The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, including the eastern part, is designated a sole source aquifer for its service area. Based primarily on data collected between 2003 and 2008, a series of comprehensive hydrologic studies of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer was published to provide the information necessary to perform groundwater-flow model simulations so that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board could determine how much water could be withdrawn from the aquifer while maintaining flow to springs and streams. As part of the Phase 1 studies, an aquifer water budget was developed from a numerical model for the period 2003–08. For this report, Phase 1 refers to the 2003–08 data collection period, although for some of the analyses, data collected prior to 2003 were used to inform model development work. Allocation of water from this aquifer was then established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board in 2013. Additional well-spacing rules were also established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board for sensitive sole source groundwater basins. To determine how the water budget for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer has changed over time, recently collected hydrologic data (2018–23) were compared to data collected during 2003–08. The analysis of changes in the aquifer water budget from 2003–08 to 2018–23 could help resource managers better understand changes in the overall balance of water in storage and the potential effects on streamflow, changes in groundwater levels, and the effects of different water uses in the aquifer area on available water in the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer and streams overlying the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer.

Released March 14, 2025 12:28 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5019

Seth A. Siefken, Tara Williams-Sether, Nancy A. Barth, Katherine J. Chase, Mark A. Cedar Face

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and the Wyoming Water Development Office, has developed standard methods of peak-flow frequency analysis for studies in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. These methods describe the implementation of national flood frequency guidelines described in Bulletin 17C (https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5) for the four States and deviations from Bulletin 17C standard procedures to accommodate unusual hydrologic conditions. A U.S. Geological Survey data release accompanying this report (https://doi.org/10.5066/P1WHRK8H) provides example peak-flow frequency analyses for selected streamgages in the study area. The methods described in this report can be used to publish similar data releases for other streamgages in the study area.

Released March 14, 2025 10:50 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3003

Jeffrey L. Mauk, Nick A. Karl, Justin S. Pierson, Carma A. San Juan

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 required the Secretary of the Interior to establish a program to inventory abandoned hard-rock mines in the United States. The Department of the Interior’s Office of Environmental Policy and Compliance asked the U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Deposit Database project (USMIN) to use existing data sources to build an inventory of all individual abandoned mine features in the United States. In addition to feature locations, this new database documents the surface land management agency, associated physical and environmental hazards, and any completed mitigation efforts. This information will improve risk assessment and support land management efforts, including hazard mitigation, ecosystem restoration planning, and reclamation. This fact sheet provides a brief overview of USMIN’s collaborative efforts with Federal, State, and Tribal agencies to build a comprehensive and authoritative national inventory of abandoned mine features.

Released March 14, 2025 10:34 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5131

Emily A. Wei, Jennifer L. Miselis, Noreen A. Buster, Arnell S. Forde

The U.S. Geological Survey assessed the Quaternary evolution of Seven Mile Island, New Jersey, to quantify coastal sediment availability, which is crucial for establishing sediment budgets, understanding sediment dispersal, and managing coastlines. This report presents preliminary interpretations of seismic profiles, maps of Holocene sand thickness from the shoreline to 2 kilometers offshore, and tables quantifying the volume of available sediment along the coastal margin based on data collected during 2021 and 2022. The results reveal spatial variability in the thickness and cross-shore extent of Holocene sand. The study area was separated into northern, central, and southern zones by using underlying stratigraphy and geomorphic features. The characteristics and spatial extent of the Holocene sand deposit indicate that hydrodynamic processes contribute to its spatial variability. Northern Seven Mile Island contains the thickest deposits of Holocene sand that were formed by sediment bypass around the Townsends Inlet ebb-tidal delta. Specifically, swash bars have welded to the updrift end of Seven Mile Island and have formed thick deposits of Holocene sand that thicken landward and taper seaward. Despite their thickness, these deposits have the smallest cross-shore extent; therefore, northern Seven Mile Island has the smallest volume of Holocene sand of the three geomorphic zones. Central Seven Mile Island has the thinnest Holocene sand deposits because this section of the barrier island is outside the influence of ebb-tidal deltas. Southern Seven Mile Island has the greatest volumes of Holocene sand because of increased accommodation and deposition adjacent to the Hereford Inlet ebb-tidal delta. Even though tidal inlets exert variable influence on the three geomorphic zones, sediment is distributed fairly uniformly within each geomorphic zone; each of the three zones contains 31.05–36.48 percent of the volume of available Holocene sand.

Released March 13, 2025 13:26 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5128

Paul E. Misut

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Suffolk County Water Authority, evaluated the aquifer transmissivity and storage properties at the Alvahs Lane well field north of the village of Cutchogue, New York. This analysis of aquifer properties provides the Suffolk County Water Authority with hydrogeologic information needed to develop water supplies to meet the increasing water demands of the residents of Suffolk County, New York.

An aquifer test was conducted at the Alvahs Lane well field from October 18 through October 21, 2022, when a production well was pumped at 550 gallons per minute for about 24 hours, and groundwater-level drawdown and recovery were measured in two monitoring wells. The three wells are screened in a glaciofluvial aquifer under unconfined (water table) conditions. Drawdown and recovery data were analyzed with an analytical solution for partial penetration and delayed yield in an unconfined aquifer to provide estimates of the glaciofluvial aquifer properties. Inclusion of lateral aquifer boundaries was not necessary for the analysis to result in satisfactory matches with the observed water-level responses. Aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 32,000 feet squared per day. Assuming a saturated aquifer thickness of 120 feet, this result is equivalent to a horizontal hydraulic conductivity value of 270 feet per day. Specific yield was estimated at 0.15 (dimensionless). The estimated properties are consistent with those of a highly transmissive unconfined aquifer.

Released March 13, 2025 12:40 EST

2025, Data Report 1206

Kaitlin L. Laabs, Janet R. Barclay, John R. Mullaney

Excessive nitrogen discharge is a major concern for the Long Island Sound. Programs have been implemented to reduce point sources of nitrogen to the sound, but little is known about the nonpoint sources. This study aims to better understand the current groundwater contributions of nitrogen from nonpoint sources in the Long Island Sound watershed.

During the spring and summer of 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, collected water-quality samples to analyze nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), chloride, and bromide at 45 stations in the Long Island Sound watershed in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island. The stations were in small drainage watersheds (5 to 30 square kilometers) in the southern part of the Long Island Sound watershed. During two separate synoptic sampling events, water-quality samples and instantaneous streamflow measurements were collected under base-flow conditions (where the streamflow is dominated by groundwater inputs rather than overland flow or runoff flow). One sampling event was in the nongrowing season (April 24–25, 2022), and the other was in the growing season (June 30–July 1, 2022). To calculate instantaneous nitrogen loads and yields, streamflow was measured at the time of sample collection.

Nitrogen concentrations, loads, and yields varied among sampling stations and by season. Total filtered nitrogen concentrations were generally lower in the nongrowing season (from less than 0.14 to 1.9 milligrams per liter) than in the growing season (from less than 0.23 to 3.0 milligrams per liter). Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations showed little variation between the nongrowing and growing seasons. Unfiltered ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations were generally lower in the nongrowing season (from less than 0.07 to 0.83 milligram per liter) than in the growing season (from 0.11 to 0.98 milligram per liter). In contrast, total filtered and unfiltered nitrogen loads and yields were higher in the nongrowing season than during the growing season, likely because streamflows were higher during the nongrowing season. Total unfiltered nitrogen yields during the nongrowing season ranged from less than 0.15 to 5.0 kilograms per square kilometer per day. Total unfiltered nitrogen yields during the growing season ranged from less than 0.12 to 2.5 kilograms per square kilometer per day. Total filtered nitrogen yields during the nongrowing season ranged from less than 0.13 to 5.2 kilograms per square kilometer per day. Total filtered nitrogen yields during the growing season ranged from less than 0.06 to 2.5 kilograms per square kilometer per day.

Released March 13, 2025 11:45 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2024-3049

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kira K. Timm

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 47 million barrels of oil and 876 billion cubic feet of gas in upper Paleozoic reservoirs of the Wind River Basin, Bighorn Basin, and Powder River Basin Provinces.

Released March 13, 2025 11:04 EST

2025, Hydrological Processes (39)

Jeremy Giovando, Wyatt Reis, Wei Zhang, Nancy A. Barth

In June 2022, a historic flood event occurred in the headwaters of the Yellowstone River Basin. The flood resulted in millions of dollars in damages and substantial interruptions to Yellowstone National Park. The 2022 flood event was substantially higher in magnitude than other high-peak flow events over the last 30 years. The high discharge was primarily due to the combination of hydrologic mechanisms initiated by rain-on-snow, including a high-elevation snowpack that peaked later than average. However, the contributions of each hydrologic driver, rain and snow, have not been quantified and could be important for understanding future flood events in the region. The contribution of snowmelt to the total terrestrial water input (TWI) varied throughout the area, yet was concentrated in the headwaters of the Yellowstone, Stillwater, and Boulder rivers, along with the headwaters of Rock Creek in Wyoming and Montana. The primary atmospheric contributions to the TWI during the 2022 event were precipitation from moisture transported from the Pacific Ocean that converged over the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) and snowmelt from residual snowpack in the northeast part of Yellowstone National Park.

Released March 13, 2025 10:03 EST

2025, Journal of Fish of Biology

P.J. Rudershausen, Matthew J. O'Donnell

The mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus is a trophically important fish inhabiting Atlantic coastal salt marshes, with few in situ estimates of overwinter survival throughout the species range. We estimated overwinter apparent survival rates of F. heteroclitus at the approximate mid-latitudinal species range [coastal North Carolina (USA)] in four tidal creeks that experience variable winter water temperatures. To estimate apparent survival, we fitted a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to daily mark-resight data autonomously obtained from fish marked with passive integrated transponder tags. Creek, year, mean daily water temperature, change in mean daily temperature, fish length and fish condition were considered for effects on the modelled parameters: apparent survival (Φ) (product of true survival and site fidelity) and detection probability (p). Modelling showed that water temperature and fish metrics were not related to Φ. Water temperature was directly related to p, indicating reduced fish activity and thus reduced detection probability or poor antenna detection performance at low temperatures. Creek was related to Φ and p, and the creek most open to its downstream estuary (lacking a culvert) had lower rates than the others. Greater loss (fish mortality plus emigration) in this one creek may more effectively transfer production of F. heteroclitus to larger waterbodies via emigration or predation. Conversely, lower Φ may reflect reduced detection efficiency. The results suggest that F. heteroclitus survival is insensitive to variable winter water temperatures typical of thermal dynamics in shallow estuaries in this region of its range. Median creek-specific overwinter Φ rates (range of median values, 2 × 10⁻⁸, 0.04) were roughly equal to previously published rates for these creeks during the growing season (April–October). At these latitudes and with increasingly moderate winters, the results indicate that natural mortality could arise equally or more so from predation during the growing season than mechanisms such as starvation, direct mortality, thermal morbidity and stress-related susceptibility to predation resulting from intermittently low water temperatures during the overwinter season.

Released March 13, 2025 09:40 EST

2025, Emerging Infectious Diseases (31) 804-808

Andrew M. Ramey, Kimberlee B. Beckmen, David T. Saafeld, Kerry Nicholson, Buck A. Mangipane, Laura Celeste Scott, David E. Stallknecht, Rebecca L. Poulson

Serum samples from wild mammals inhabiting Alaska, USA, showed that 4 species, including Ursus arctos bears and Vulpes vulpes foxes, were exposed to influenza A(H5N1) viruses. Results indicated some mammals in Alaska survived H5N1 virus infection. Surveillance efforts may be improved by incorporating information on susceptibility and detectable immune responses among wild mammals.

Released March 13, 2025 09:05 EST

2025, Newsletter

Kyra Harvey, Jennifer L. McKay

This Memo to All Banders (MTAB 111) was released in March 2025. Subjects in this this memo are 1. The Chief’s Chirp; 2. Alerts – Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza; 3. Staff updates – celebrating Karen Jone’s remarkable career and retirement, meeting reports and a field trip; 4. News – BandIt end of life! (starting February 1st, 2025 the BBL will no longer be accepting BandIt files), Notes From the Field: Black-bellied Whistling Ducks, Longevity records update, ABA Bird of the Year the Common Loon, EESC signs partnership with Audubon Society, and what 100 years of USGS bird monitoring data tells us about hummingbirds; 5. A note from the permitting shelves – changes to the application process for new master personal or station permits and don’t wait to submit authorization requests; 6. A note from the supply room – best practices for band supply; 7. Data management –  banding data submission for birds released from rehabilitation; 8. Frequently asked questions – I had to replace a federal metal band or auxiliary marker, how should I submit this data to the BBL? 9. Banding and encounter highlights; 10. Message to the Flyways; 11. Recent literature; 12. Moments in history; 13. Upcoming events; and 14. Request for information.

Released March 12, 2025 15:03 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2021-1104-F

Catherine A. Nikiel, Marta P. Lyons

Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis (eastern black rails; Gmelin, 1789) are facing increasing risk from flooding in coastal breeding habitats because of rising sea levels combined with standard high tide flooding. In this report, we examine regional differences in relative rates of sea level rise, days in the breeding season above historical high tide flooding thresholds, future inundation of current (2021) emergent wetlands, and potential marsh resiliency for the breeding distribution of the eastern black rail across the Atlantic and U.S. Gulf coasts. By midcentury (2050), two sea level rise scenarios (intermediate low and intermediate) indicate that areas analyzed in Texas and the Mid-Atlantic will experience at least minor flood levels for more than half of the breeding season. By the end of the century (2100), all tidal gages in the Atlantic and U.S. Gulf coasts are projected to experience at least moderate flood levels for most of the current (April–September) eastern black rail breeding season. In some areas like New Jersey, this translates to inundation for most of the emergent wetlands in the representative parishes and counties analyzed in this report. In other parts of the coastal distribution, estimates of increases in inundation are lower or more variable, stemming from differences in the elevation of existing emergent marsh, especially at the herbaceous wetland/woody wetland transition zone. Sea level rise and tidal flooding are not projected to pose an equal risk across the coastal distribution of the eastern black rail, leading to variation in risk of nest loss because of flooding. The degree to which these wetlands and birds will adapt to changing sea level and salinity depends on a range of factors including future expansion of developed areas and the ability of marsh areas to move inland. Restoration and active management of coastal wetland areas may be necessary to maintain appropriate breeding habitat.

Released March 12, 2025 13:16 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5002

Fleford S. Redoloza, Robin L. Glas, Rochelle A. Nustad, Karen R. Ryberg

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions.

Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model.

A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period.

To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed.

The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent.

The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Released March 12, 2025 08:56 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2021-1030-S

Minsu Kim, Seonkyung Park, Cody Anderson

This report addresses system characterization of the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program hyperspectral sensor by the DLR (German Aerospace Center, ground segment project management), GFZ (Deutsches Geoforschungszentrum, science lead) and is part of a series of system characterization reports produced and delivered by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports present and detail the methodology and procedures for characterization; present technical and operational information about the EnMAP hyperspectral sensor; and provide a summary of test measurements, data retention practices, data analysis results, and conclusions.

The Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence system characterization team completed data analyses to characterize the geometric (interior and exterior), and radiometric performances of the EnMAP hyperspectral sensor. Results of these analyses indicate that the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program has a band-to-band geometric performance in the range of −0.135 to 0.15 pixel, geometric performance relative to the Operational Land Imager in the range of −27.716 meters (−0.92 pixel) to 32.892 meters (1.09 pixels) offset in comparison to Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, offset of a radiometric comparison in the range of −0.012 to 0.020, slope of a radiometric comparison in the range of 0.947 to 1.031.

Released March 12, 2025 08:01 EST

2025, Journal of Applied Ecology

Elly C. Knight, Jay Carlisle, Andy J. Boyce, David Bradley, Paula Cimprich, Stephanie Coates, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Cory J. Gregory, Joel G. Jorgensen, Jeffrey F. Kelly, David Newstead, Alina Olalla, Larkin A. Powell, Amy L. Scarpignato, T. Lee Tibbitts, Nils Warnock, Walter Wehtje, Peter P. Marra, Autumn-Lynn Harrison

1. Patterns of migratory connectivity are increasingly used to understand and manage threats throughout the annual cycle of migratory species. Strong migratory connectivity refers to when individuals from different populations remain spatially separated across the annual cycle, which may expose populations to unique sets of threats and conditions that cause differential population trends. However, the populations or groups used for species’ management are often defined a priori based on expert knowledge and/or management units, which may mask important population segregation and obscure differential population trends and their drivers.

2. We compared three approaches to defining management groups of a declining shorebird, the long-billed curlew (Numenius americanus), for annual cycle management: by expert-opinion, according to management flyways, and with unsupervised clustering of satellite tracking data that maximizes the strength of migratory connectivity.

3. Despite the curlews having a continuous breeding range and a pattern of parallel migration, all three approaches identified groups with different population trends, movement behaviours and habitat selection across the annual cycle, suggesting these are meaningful ecological groups. The expert and clustering approaches resulted in similar group structure, strong estimates of migratory connectivity (measured as MC = 0.64 across seasons), movement behaviour and habitat selection; however, the expert approach identified an additional divide between the easternmost grouping, which revealed strongly negative population trends in the group occupying the Chihuahuan desert during the stationary nonbreeding season. In contrast, the flyway delineation resulted in weaker estimates of migratory connectivity, marginal differences in population trends and less between-group differences in movement behaviour and habitat selection.

4. Synthesis and applications. Using measurements of migratory connectivity in concert with expert opinion can define ecologically distinct groups for wildlife management that differ in the environmental conditions they experience across seasons of the annual cycle, which is a key component for understanding and reversing declines of migratory species.

Released March 11, 2025 15:45 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5129

Marian M. Domanski, Robert R. Holmes, Jr., Elizabeth N. Heal, Travis M. Knight

Ratings are used for several reasons in water-resources investigations. The simplest rating relates discharge to the stage of a river (the stage-discharge relation). From a pure hydrodynamics perspective, all rivers and streams have some form of hysteresis in the relation between stage and discharge because flow becomes unsteady as a flood wave passes. The stage-discharge relation is unable to represent hysteresis. However, a dynamic rating method can capture hysteresis, which is driven by the variable energy slope of a flood wave.

A dynamic rating method called DYNPOUND, which accommodates compact and compound channel geometry, was developed by simplifying the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The DYNPOUND method was developed in the Python programming language and computes discharge from stage and stage from discharge. Stage and discharge time series computed with this dynamic rating method were compared to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published stage and discharge time series. The results from the DYNPOUND method were also compared to in-person field measurements of stage and discharge made at 10 USGS streamgages.

DYNPOUND was calibrated for 10 USGS streamgages using published discharge time-series data computed with a simple rating method. The calibration objective was to minimize the mean squared logarithmic error (MSLE) of the DYNPOUND-computed discharge with respect to the discharge time series computed by a simple rating method. For each site, the calibration process also included comparing all field measurements within a selected water year to the corresponding DYNPOUND-computed discharge data points. The MSLE of the DYNPOUND-computed discharge time series for the 10 sites ranged from 8.51×10⁻⁴ to 1.36×10⁻¹. For each site, an event-based period was selected to compare the discharge time series computed with the dynamic rating method to discharge field measurements made at the streamgages; the range of MSLE for the 10 DYNPOUND-computed discharge sites was from 4.79×10⁻⁴ to 2.30×10⁻².

Released March 11, 2025 13:20 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5010

Amanda M. Dondero, Irene J. Fisher, Amy E. Simonson, Banu N. Bayraktar

The area locally known as the “Central Pine Barrens” region, located in Suffolk County, New York, contains most of Long Island’s preserved and undeveloped land. This region overlays an aquifer system that provides potable groundwater for residents of Suffolk County. Between 2017 and 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Central Pine Barrens Joint Planning & Policy Commission and the Town of Brookhaven, monitored groundwater levels and stream water quality in this region. Groundwater levels were measured monthly at five wells and continuously (15-minute intervals) at a sixth well. Water quality was monitored at five locations in the Carmans River and at two locations in the Peconic River, and samples were analyzed for major ions, trace elements, nutrients, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides. The major ion compositions at the sites were mainly sodium-chloride type waters, and compositions varied the most at the furthest upstream sites in both streams. Concentrations above aquatic-life criteria thresholds also occurred most frequently at the furthest upstream sites. The seasonal patterns of nutrient loads and concentrations varied between the Carmans and Peconic Rivers. Several organic compounds including pharmaceuticals, domestic use products, and pesticides were detected at low concentrations in both streams. Metformin was the most frequently detected pharmaceutical compound, and herbicides were the most frequently detected pesticide class. Water-quality conditions influenced by anthropogenic contributions are a result of current and historical land use, and these contributions include onsite wastewater disposal systems, commercial or domestic fertilizers and pesticides, and urban or industrial contaminants in road runoff. This study characterizes and improves understanding of the current hydrologic conditions in the Central Pine Barrens region and the study findings can help inform the development of plans to manage, protect, and restore water resources.

Released March 11, 2025 10:50 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5021

Elisa Alonso, Amanda Sarah Brioche, Ruth Schulte, Loyd M. Trimmer III, Ji-Eun Kim, Andrew L. Gulley, David George Pineault

Given the rapid expansion in the demand for mineral commodities that underpin worldwide economic growth and technological advancement, information regarding expected country-level mine production and production capacity is becoming increasingly important to industry stakeholders, end users, and policymakers. Production capacity can limit future supply, depending on how rapidly that capacity is able to expand. Current capacity can be evaluated on the basis of past production. Decreases to future capacity can be taken into account from announcements of planned shutdowns of mines or processing facilities, which are frequently publicized well in advance of such closures. Likewise, capacity expansions, which usually involve multiple stages—such as permitting, financing, and construction (all of which take time)—can also be estimated. As such, it is possible to evaluate midterm future capacity based on estimates of today’s capacities along with consideration of future investment plans. This World Minerals Outlook provides estimated capacities for cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium for 2025 through 2029.

The results of this analysis indicate that two mineral commodities important to the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries—cobalt and lithium—are expected to have large capacity growth in the next few years, likely owing to expectations for increased demand for these batteries. For gallium, helium, palladium, and platinum, capacity is expected to remain stable or exhibit moderate growth. Still, these expected capacity levels are higher than current production, allowing for future production growth. The production capacity outlook is opaque for magnesium and titanium metal, which have a significant fraction of current production in nonmarket economies, such as China and Russia. Ultimately, though, where free market conditions prevail, full utilization of capacity potential for those commodities is likely to depend on supply deficits and prices that are above production costs.

Released March 11, 2025 09:10 EST

2025, Book

T.C. Pierson, Lee Siebert, Kevin M. Scott

No abstract available.

Released March 11, 2025 09:00 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5096

Christine M. Wieben, Jonathan G. Kennen, Thomas P. Suro

Maintaining streamflow to support human water needs and ecosystem services requires a fundamental understanding of the relations between changes in streamflow processes and ecosystem responses. Changes in the natural patterns in flow, geology, and topography alter the habitats that aquatic organisms rely on for food, shelter, and reproduction. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented an ecological-flow framework that encapsulates the basic principles of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) to compare the relations between hydrologic metrics and stream conditions and estimate ecological flow needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed. As a first step in the ELOHA process, streamflow from two historical time periods (occurring between 1933 and 1988) was compared to streamflow for a recent time period (from 2004-2020) for four major streams in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed (North Branch Metedeconk River, Toms River, Cedar Creek, and Westecunk Creek), to evaluate if there were statistically significant differences in streamflow metrics. Analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual low-flow metrics; patterns in the streamflow record; and general land-use changes were used to develop a better understanding of flow conditions in the watershed.

The comparative streamflow analysis indicated that notable changes in flow processes for the study streams occurred between the three periods of record (PORs) evaluated in this study: period of record 1 (POR1, from water years 1933–1958), period of record 2 (POR2, from water years 1974–1988), and period of record 3 (POR3, from water years 2004–2020). For example, the mean of the daily streamflow decreased between the historical POR to the current POR in Cedar Creek but increased in North Branch Metedeconk and Toms Rivers. Larger and more significant changes (p-value <0.10) occurred during specific months or were related to the variability or seasonality of flow. North Branch Metedeconk River and Toms River, the two northern and most developed sites, exhibited changes in low-flow metrics and decreases in minimum n-day moving averages. Decreases in the normalized 75th-percentile exceedance flows were evident at three of the four study sub-basins during POR2 and POR3. In comparison, there was little to no evidence of negative changes to low-flow metrics at Westecunk Creek, the southernmost and least developed site, where all low-flow duration metrics increased as well as seasonal minimum consecutive 7-day average flows. Significant increases in monthly minimums (p-value <0.05) at Cedar Creek for spring months (April, May, and June) also were observed.

Natural and anthropogenic processes can alter the landscape resulting in concomitant changes in the streamflow regime. There is a need to assess these changes and synthesize the results into a scientifically defensible set of goals and standards that help support the management of environmental flows. This study represents the initial steps in building the hydrologic foundation to inform management and develop future ecological flow targets that balance water availability for human and ecosystem needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed.

Released March 10, 2025 14:00 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3011

David Ziolkowski, Jr., Antonio Celis-Murillo, Jenn Malpass, Keith Pardieck, Julien Martin, Lauren Walker

Birds are vital to our economy, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Investing in bird conservation benefits communities, businesses, and working lands while reinforcing our nation’s legacy of stewardship and biodiversity. By valuing birds, we ensure a richer, healthier, and more vibrant future for all Americans. The USGS leads two national bird monitoring programs Thriving bird populations contribute over $100 billion in related purchases to the U.S. economy annually, helping to support 1.4 million jobs and $90 billion in labor-related income. Across our nation, Federal and State wildlife agencies, Flyway Councils, non-governmental organizations, and more consider data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to be critical to meeting their mandates to set healthy harvest levels and in identifying species of conservation need. However, without stable and sufficient resources for the BBL and BBS, the capacity to monitor and address the rapidly evolving needs of migratory bird populations is at risk, jeopardizing the foundation of collaborative conservation efforts across North America.

Released March 10, 2025 12:15 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5121

Ayman H. Alzraiee, Andrew Rich, Linda R. Woolfenden, Derek W. Ryter, Enrique Triana, Richard G. Niswonger

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to analyze the hydrologic system in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, help meet the increasing demand for fresh water, and prepare for future uncertainties in water resources. The original model simulated hydrological conditions and water use from water years 1975 to 2010. Recently (2023), the USGS, in cooperation with Sonoma Water and the California State Water Resources Control Board, updated the SRPHM model to extend its simulation period to the end of the 2018 calendar year, incorporate new estimates of rural and agricultural water use, and use efficient input format for climate variables. The updated model was recalibrated, and evaluation of the new model calibration is included in this report. This report presents the results of comparing the hydraulic heads, streamflow, and groundwater budget simulated by the updated model with those generated by the original model and observed data. The main difference in the simulated budget between the original and updated SRPHM is the estimates of agricultural pumping, rural domestic pumping, and return flow generated from rural water use that was not simulated in the original model. The revised agricultural pumping is simulated using the agricultural package, which constrains pumping to available groundwater. The use of the agricultural package leads to a more realistic estimation of agricultural water use, with revised agricultural pumping being one-third less than that in the original model. The revised rural pumping is about half of the pumping in the original model because of using detailed parcel data to estimate population density in rural areas instead of coarse census tracts. Overall, average total inflows for water years 2006–10 simulated by the updated model were about 2 percent less than the original model, and the average total updated outflows were nearly 5 percent less than the original model. The updated model was then used to generate stream depletion maps, simulate climate change scenarios during 2019–99, and simulate water rights allocation using the Model for Decision Support in Integrated River Basin Management (MODSIM). The results from simulating eight future climate scenarios indicated either an increase in groundwater storage or no significant change in the next 80 years, along with an increase in recharge, an increase in actual evapotranspiration in six out of eight climate projections, and an increase in surface runoff. The increases in the simulated future groundwater storage, recharge, evapotranspiration, and runoff in most climate projections are mainly driven by the projected increase in precipitation in most of the future climate scenarios. The updated model also was used to test a pilot case study demonstrating water-resource allocation among different users with different water rights using the integrated MODSIM-Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) platform. The updated SRPHM serves as a valuable tool for analyzing historical and future hydrologic conditions in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed and preparing for future uncertainties.

Released March 10, 2025 09:57 EST

2025, Movement Ecology (13)

Hayden C. Roberts, Florian Kappen, Matthew Ross Acre, Daniel J. Daugherty, Nathan G. Smith, Joshuah S. Perkin

Background

Freshwater megafishes are among some of the most commercially and ecologically important aquatic organisms yet are disproportionately threatened with range and population reduction. Anthropogenic alterations of rivers influencing migrations are among the most significant causes for these declines. However, migratory fishes do not always respond similarly to movement barriers and thus it is necessary to develop models to predict movements of freshwater migratory fishes in the face of anthropogenic alteration. Predicting movement of freshwater fishes is often investigated using statistical packages. However, empirical studies assessing these packages have led to mixed results, questioning its applicability to all taxa. We argue that spatial, temporal, and environmental attributes are more influential for movement of a migratory megafish, the Alligator Gar (Atractosteus spatula), than the current parameters explored in a globally relevant fish movement model.

Methods

This study explored two independent mobile telemetry datasets investigating Alligator Gar movement on the Brazos and Trinity rivers. Environmental associations were investigated to predict Alligator Gar displacement and dispersal using generalized additive models, generalized linear models, and model selection. Leptokurtosis of Alligator Gar populations was also assessed. Predictability of the movement model was tested by comparing observed to model derived stationary and mobile components making up a leptokurtic movement distribution.

Results

Our study suggests that current and antecedent measures of discharge and water temperature are positively correlated with Alligator Gar displacement and dispersal. However, these patterns are only detectable when monthly relocation intervals are explored rather than seasonal scales. Leptokurtosis was observed in both Alligator Gar populations. However, movement was normally distributed (i.e., mesokurtic) under tracking events following high flood pulses. Additionally, predicted Alligator Gar movement was significantly farther under modeled values compared to observed values, in part because the species undergoes cyclical migrations for reproduction that are sensitive to water temperature and discharge.

Discussion

In conclusion, this study provides an alternative framework to assess the movement patterns of migratory fishes, which could be tested on additional freshwater fishes, and suggests that assessing spatial, environmental, and temporal processes simultaneously are necessary to capture the complexities of fish movement which currently are unavailable for the movement model we investigated.

Released March 10, 2025 09:15 EST

2025, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (197)

Gabrielle Pecora Black, Matthew D. De Parsia, Matthew Uychutin, Rachael F. Lane, James Orlando, Michelle Hladik

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) is an expansive river delta supplying a large portion of California’s fresh water for agriculture and residential use, and it is also an area of critical habitat for numerous state and federally listed species of concern. In many locations, urban stormwater flows directly into the Delta. 6PPD-quinone (6PPD-Q), an ozonation byproduct of a tire antiozonant 6PPD, has been shown to enter surface water via these pathways and can cause various toxicological effects, including acute urban mortality syndrome to coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) at low levels (LC₅₀ = 41 and 95 ng/L for juveniles and adults, respectively). Here, we quantified 6PPD-Q in 61 archived Delta water extracts collected between 2018 and 2024 and found concentrations up to 21 ng/L. Currently, no 6PPD-Q presence and/or quantitative data is available for this complex and diverse ecosystem. Little is known regarding long-term storage of 6PPD-quinone in solvent extracts, so 6PPD-Q observations document its presence in the study area and provide evidence that further sampling may be warranted to better quantify environmental concentrations. Consistent with the general understanding of 6PPD-Q transport, all detections observed were in samples collected during or immediately after a precipitation event. This work provides environmentally relevant concentration data to complement ongoing toxicological investigations of 6PPD-Q in Delta organisms and suggests there are research opportunities for a more robust survey of 6PPD-Q inputs into the Delta.

Released March 10, 2025 08:26 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5004

Charles V. Cigrand

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa (FDLB), studied the effects of channel modification alternatives on lake levels and floodplain inundation in the Stoney Brook watershed in northeast Minnesota. Northern wild rice (Zizania palustris), also referred to as manoomin by the Ojibwe/Chippewa people, is a natural and cultural resource to the FDLB and is sensitive to water levels and rates of water-level changes, particularly during the early stages of growth. Drainage ditches constructed in the early 1900s in the Stoney Brook watershed lowered lake-water levels, caused greater fluctuations in the lakes, and created a loss in wetland coverage. The FDLB is committed to minimizing large fluctuations of the lakes with natural wild rice production in the Stoney Brook watershed and restoring a more natural hydrology to Stoney Brook. The hydrologic response of these lakes and floodplain storage to simulated channel modification alternatives were examined.

Hydrologic and hydraulic models were developed for the watershed and calibrated to historical rainfall events. The models used probabilistic frequency rainfall events of 24-hour duration for 1-, 2-, 5-, and 10-year annual recurrence intervals (100-, 50-, 20-, and 10-percent annual exceedance probability) to simulate watershed management scenarios with existing and alternative conditions. The hydraulic model outputs for peak flows, volume accumulation, water levels, and inundation duration and depths were assessed to quantify the effects of the channel modification alternatives. The channel modification alternatives were simulated with four different terrain conditions: existing conditions, bank spoil breach, original channel reconnection, and original channel reconnection with bank spoil breach. Hydrologic characteristics from six distinct areas were used in the model to evaluate the effects from the channel modification alternatives.

The simulated results of two lakes in which wild rice was planted demonstrated that the lakes would take longer to draw down following an event with the channel modification alternatives compared to existing conditions with little change to peak water-surface elevations. The alternatives provided minor to no increases in flows or conveyances at the downstream reference location at Pine Drive bridge. The restored floodplain locations had increased flows and conveyances for the channel modification alternatives that could be considered substantial when compared to flows with existing conditions. The inundation extent, duration, and water-depth distribution were assessed within selected floodplain areas. Generally, the channel modification alternatives produced increases in the higher depth (3–4 and greater than 4 feet) and duration (10–14 and greater than 14 days) categories for these areas, which may be beneficial to increases in wetland coverage and floodplain storage.

Released March 10, 2025 08:21 EST

2025, Wildlife Society Bulletin (49)

William Michael Janousek, Eric K. Cole, Sarah R. Dewey, Tabitha A. Graves

In the United States, wildlife managers are entrusted with preserving culturally and economically important ungulate populations in the face of the ongoing spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established an adaptive management plan to reduce the reliance of elk (Cervus canadensis) on supplemental winter feeding on the National Elk Refuge. The end goal of reducing the unnaturally high aggregation of elk during the winter is to mitigate the threat of disease outbreaks and to meet the objectives of sustainable populations of elk on the refuge. In this case study, we evaluated 6 years (2017–2022) of data from GPS-collared elk to determine the efficacy of shortening the length of the annual feeding period on the refuge to reduce elk aggregation. We measured aggregation using proximity rates, based on pairwise interactions over time, in both raw form as an index as well as predicted proximity as a function of other abiotic influences. We created a new R package, wildagg, to help with the process of computing the metrics from our study and to increase reproducibility in the future. Aggregation declined in years with less feeding on the refuge according to raw aggregation metrics when examined in isolation and dependent on the baseline feeding year used for comparison. However, accounting for abiotic factors while modeling proximity rates suggested in some years the decision to shorten the feeding period had less influence on aggregation than predicted. Our results underscore the complexity of measuring management outcomes and the usefulness of multiple approaches to evaluation.

Released March 08, 2025 09:33 EST

2025, Geomorphology (478)

Lisa Ely, Alyssa DeMott, Bryon J. Free, Andrew C. Ritchie

The removal of Glines Canyon Dam on the Elwha River in western Washington, USA, from 2011 to 2014 introduced a 20-Mt pulse of stored sediment and logs into the downstream channel. We used terrestrial laser scanning, high-resolution orthoimages, and surveys of large wood (LW) and sediment grain-size distribution to quantify changes to the channel and LW in four different geomorphic settings spanning a 16-year period before, during, and after dam removal. The results provide insights into the role of site-specific geomorphology on the interplay among sediment size and supply, wood, and channel form in the aftermath of a dam removal. Sediment-size distribution, braiding index, and number of log jams rapidly reached new steady states. Other factors, such as channel sinuosity and log jam area, were still evolving six years after the dam was removed. The rate and type of river response was partially dictated by the geomorphic setting and the accumulation of LW. Complex reaches trapped more sediment and LW, initiating immediate changes in the channel count, position and lateral migration that continued to evolve through positive feedbacks. Single-channel sites experienced less initial erosion and deposition, but channel migration continued for years once it was underway. The post-dam sediment composition progressively shifted to a mixed size distribution midway between the armored cobbles when the dam was in place and the influx of primarily sand and fine gravel during dam removal. Reworking of sediment was most rapid in the first year after dam removal, especially at the site with the greatest channel complexity. The relation between log jams and channel divisions fundamentally changed. There were 11 log jams in the middle reach of the Elwha River downstream of Glines Canyon Dam, and all log jams associated with channel divisions occurred at the heads of stable, vegetated islands. During dam removal, the number of log jams rapidly increased to 86 and stabilized near that level in the post-dam period. While log jams on stable islands persisted, more were added at divisions around transient sediment bars, scattered across gravel bars, or outside of the active channel. Following a brief spike during dam removal, there was a net long-term increase of ∼10 % in the number of channel divisions associated with log jams. The sediment deposits, LW, vegetation, channel morphology and river discharge continued to cause adjustments within the fluvial system a decade after the start of dam removal. This state of greater variability could be the new equilibrium for years to come.

Released March 07, 2025 11:00 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3010

Elise R. Irwin, Tess M. McConnell, Donald E. Dennerline, Kevin L. Pope, Jonathan R. Mawdsley

This fact sheet provides a 10-year overview of the U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Research Units program. It highlights long term accomplishments for the program's mission of applied research, graduate education and technical assistance to the partners.

Released March 07, 2025 08:58 EST

2025, Ecological Indicators (172)

Georgia Harrison, Matthew B. Rigge, Timothy J. Assal, Cara Applestein, Darren K. James, Sarah E. McCord

Satellite-derived maps of vegetation cover provide detailed information about vegetation spatiotemporal patterns and are increasingly used to better understand and manage rangelands. Despite their utility, questions remain regarding the regional and site level accuracy for these maps, especially compared to field-collected data. We conducted an accuracy assessment of the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), using over 17,000 field plots sampled through nationwide rangeland vegetation monitoring programs in the continental U.S. We observed higher overall nationwide map error compared to previous validations of RAP, and absolute error (Mean Absolute Error [MAE] and Root Mean Square Error [RMSE]) was highest for perennial herbaceous and bare ground and lowest for trees (MAE range = 2.98 –10.22 %). There were also differences in map agreement with field data across ecoregions. Generally, map agreement was highest in the Great Basin and lowest in the Great Plains and Desert Southwest. Additionally, we assessed the suitability of using RAP in riparian and wetland areas, which are absent in the current version’s training. Errors for bare ground in riparian areas were lower than errors of upland accuracy assessments (upland MAE = 10.22 %, riparian MAE = 7.22 %), but for all other functional groups, riparian error was higher (ΔMAE range: 0.21 – 20.49 %). We examine how our results could inform regional applications of fractional cover data while considering error and uncertainty and identify areas for potential model improvement. Our findings inform the use of RAP regionally and provide a technique for evaluating other vegetation mapping products for use in rangeland management.

Released March 07, 2025 08:42 EST

2025, Journal of Environmental Management (376)

Erin K. Peck, Julie E. Walker, Kate Ackerman, Joel A. Carr, Maureen D. Correll, Zafer Defne, Linda A. Deegan, Mitchell Eaton, Neil K. Ganju, Mitch Hartley, Catherine Johnson, Jason J Mercer, Katharine J. Ruskin, Jonathan D. Woodruff, Brian Yellen

Effective management of valuable coastal systems, such as salt marshes requires an understanding of the complex stressors influencing their continued threat of drowning. However, efforts to determine the effects of one potential stressor, ditches, have produced diverging results complicating management efforts. Ditches (linear trenches dug to drain salt marshes for agriculture and mosquito control) alter salt marsh hydrology, but their effects on widescale marsh function and degradation are poorly understood. We created a dataset of visible ditches and summarized ditch densities (length of ditches over area) for salt marshes of the Northeast U.S. to evaluate ditching against vulnerability metrics, including elevation and the unvegetated to vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR). We identified a scale dependency in which the larger/coarser the spatial scale of analysis, the greater the fraction of ditched salt marshes. Scale dependence explains discrepancies between previously determined ditch indices. In terms of effects on marsh vulnerability, relative elevation was not influenced by visible ditch presence. Ditch densities affected UVVR, exhibiting a multiple threshold behavior. When present at low densities, ditches have little effect on ponding; yet as ditch densities increase, UVVR (i.e., ponding) increases. The relationship between ditching and UVVR reverses at the highest ditch densities, with ponding substantially decreasing. The multiple threshold vulnerability response of Northeast salt marshes to the hydrologic influences imposed by ditching suggests restoration strategies should consider the degree of ditching rather than simply ditching presence.

Released March 07, 2025 08:15 EST

2025, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (119)

Nathan J. Wood, Jeff Peters, Christopher Moore

Reducing the potential for loss of life from tsunamis is challenging on islands located in complex seismic regions given the multiple sources that surround islands, differences among islands in the amount of time needed to evacuate before wave arrival, and the high number of residents, employees, and tourists in tsunami-hazard zones. We examine variations in population vulnerability in island communities to multiple tsunami threats and use the United States territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), including St. Thomas Island, St. John Island, and St. Croix Island, as our case study. We estimate the tsunami-hazard exposure of residents, employees, and cruise-ship passengers on vessels docking at USVI maritime facilities, as well as model pedestrian travel times out of inundation zones for 13 credible tsunami scenarios. Results indicate that the threat to life safety in USVI posed by tsunamis is not equal among the three islands, both in terms of the magnitude of people in hazard zones and the amount of time available to evacuate for the various scenarios. The number of employees and cruise-ship passengers in tsunami-hazard zones is orders of magnitude higher than the number of residents, suggesting that risk assessments that only account for residents are under-estimating threats to life safety from tsunamis. Finally, reducing departure delays has a greater impact than increasing pedestrian travel speeds on reducing the number of people that may have insufficient time to evacuate hazard zones before wave arrival.

Released March 06, 2025 14:33 EST

2025, Techniques and Methods 11-E1

Mark T McClernan, Michael L. Dennis, Ike H. Theriot, Trent M. Hare, Brent A. Archinal, Lillian R. Ostrach, Marc A. Hunter, Matthew J. Miller, Ross A. Beyer, Andrew M. Annex, Samuel J. Lawrence

Foreward

This document contains design specifications of a navigational standard for the Moon, including a Lunar Transverse Mercator system, a Lunar Polar Stereographic system, a Lunar Grid Reference System, and a unique coordinate structure, Artemis Condensed Coordinates, for Artemis mission navigation and lunar surface science.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis campaign seeks to place humans on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions. Early Artemis missions are heavily focused on the lunar south pole, which promises to return valuable data on the Moon’s geologic record, amongst other mission objectives. Coordinate systems in use today for the lunar south pole provides crew members on the surface neither an efficient nor intuitive means to communicate their position and orientation. A novel grid coordinate system, the Lunar Grid Reference System, is proposed to address these concerns for use in real-time extravehicular activity operations on the lunar surface.

The many stakeholders involved in the Artemis missions will need a common system to communicate position and orientation while astronauts are operating on the lunar surface. To that end, Artemis crew members will need that system to be efficient and intuitive to promote efficient extravehicular activity timelines and reduce confusion. In the context of this document, these characteristics are addressed on the design of lunar coordinate systems:

• Efficient.—The number of characters required to communicate a location within a desired precision level in both local and global contexts, and how many steps are required for a recipient or sender to interpret a location.
• Intuitive.—How well the system aligns with human perceptual abilities, and whether the system yields distances that have the same relationship to actual lunar surface distance in all directions from the point where a person is located.

Technological systems are currently being investigated to supplement the crew members’ ability to locate and orient themselves and other assets on the lunar surface; however, it is unlikely that those systems will be fully operational for the first few landed missions. Even with future positional aids, crew members will still need an efficient and intuitive means to communicate position and orientation. In addition, if technological systems fail, the crews will require land navigation skills and have maps available, thus providing further motivation for a crew-centric coordinate system.

The contents of this U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) document detail a comprehensive framework for standardizing lunar crewed surface navigation within NASA and outlines the protocols, methods, and designs necessary for achieving consistency and interoperability across relevant space mission teams and lunar surface navigators. Key components of this document include designs of map projections, projected coordinate reference systems (Lunar Transverse Mercator and Lunar Polar Stereographic systems), and a grid system (Lunar Grid Reference System and Artemis Condensed Coordinates) for the Moon.

The work proposed in this document seeks to accomplish something similar to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) document SIG 0012 (NGA, 2014a), but for using grid systems for the Moon. This report incorporates initial feedback and input from NASA’s Artemis Geospatial Data Team, NASA’s Flight Operations Directorate, National Geodetic Survey, USGS Astrogeology Science Center, and NGA and is intended to serve as a resource for all involved with the Artemis missions, as well as for engineers designing and operating lunar infrastructure.

Released March 06, 2025 09:29 EST

2025, Science (387) 1090-1094

Collin B. Edwards, Elise F. Zipkin, Erica H. Henry, Nick M. Haddad, Matthew L. Forister, Kevin J. Burls, Steven P. Campbell, Elizabeth E. Crone, Jay Diffendorfer, Margaret R. Douglas, Ryan G. Drum, Candace E. Fallon, Jeffrey Glassberg, Eliza M. Grames, Richard G. Hatfield, Shiran Hershcovich, Scott Hoffman-Black, Elise A. Larsen, Wendy Leuenberger, Mary J. Linders, Travis Longcore, Daniel A. Marschalek, James Michielini, Naresh Neupane, Leslie Ries, Arthur M. Shapiro, Ann B. Swengel, Scott R. Swengel, Douglas J. Taron, Braeden Van Deynze, Jerome Wiedmann, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Cheryl B. Schultz

Reports of declining insect populations have received widespread media attention, but evidence for declines has been variable across regions and taxonomic groups. Edwards et al. examined trends in the most surveyed taxon: butterflies (see the Perspective by Inouye). Combining data from 35 citizen science programs across the continental US, the authors found declines in overall butterfly abundance over the past 20 years across almost all major regions. Two-thirds of studied species showed declines of more than 10%. Many insects have the potential for rapid population growth and recovery, but habitat restoration, species-specific interventions, and reducing pesticide use are all likely needed to curb population declines.

Released March 05, 2025 12:00 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3009

Elise R. Irwin, Tess M. McConnell, Donald E. Dennerline, Kevin L. Pope, Jonathan R. Mawdsley

Introduction 

The U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units (USGS CRU) program was established in 1935 and codified by Congress in 1960 to enhance graduate education in wildlife and fisheries sciences and to facilitate research and technical assistance among natural resource agencies and universities on fisheries and wildlife management topics of mutual concern. The success of the CRU program lies in its cooperative approach. State and Federal fish and wildlife agencies determine where focused, science-based studies for wildlife and natural resource management for societal benefit are needed. The CRU scientists conduct applied research to contribute results to inform and aid partners in determining best practices for managing resources. Each Unit is a unique partnership among the U.S. Geological Survey, a host university, one or more State agencies, the Wildlife Management Institute, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Released March 05, 2025 10:05 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (970)

Curt Storlazzi, Renee K. Takesue, Alicia Hendrix

No abstract available.

Released March 05, 2025 09:30 EST

2025, Conservation Physiology (13)

Sarah Teman, Todd C. Atwood, Sarah J. Converse, Tricia Fry, Kristin L. Laidre

The southern Beaufort Sea polar bear sub-population (Ursus maritimus) has been adversely affected by climate change and loss of sea ice habitat. Even though the sub-population is likely decreasing, it remains difficult to link individual polar bear health and physiological change to sub-population effects. We developed an index of allostatic load, which represents potential physiological dysregulation. The allostatic load index included blood- and hair-based analytes measured in physically captured southern Beaufort bears in spring. We examined allostatic load in relation to bear body condition, age, terrestrial habitat use and, over time, for bear demographic groups. Overall, allostatic load had no relationship with body condition. However, allostatic load was higher in adult females without cubs that used terrestrial habitats the prior year, indicating potential physiological dysregulation with land use. Allostatic load declined with age in adult females without cubs. Sub-adult males demonstrated decreased allostatic load over time. Our study is one of the first attempts to develop a health scoring system for free-ranging polar bears, and our findings highlight the complexity of using allostatic load as an index of health in a wild species. Establishing links between individual bear health and population dynamics is important for advancing conservation efforts.

Released March 04, 2025 14:51 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5064-E

Tara Williams-Sether, Chris Sanocki

This report chapter summarizes the effect of hydroclimatic variability of annual peak streamflow in Minnesota and is part of a larger U.S. Geological Survey multistate study to assess potential nonstationarity in annual peak streamflows across the Midwest. Spatial and temporal patterns were examined for nonstationarity in annual peak streamflow, daily mean streamflow, and modeled climatic data in four analysis periods: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Upward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northwest to southeast and north to south directions. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northeastern and southeastern areas. Trends in peak-flow timing indicated that peak streamflows are being detected later in the water year (the period from October 1 to September 30 designated by the year in which it ends) mainly in the southern areas and earlier in the water year mainly in the northern areas.

Changes in climate data point to wetter conditions in southern areas and drier conditions in northern areas. Annual precipitation was determined to be increasing in a northwest to southeast direction and in the east. In contrast, some areas in the north and northwest indicated decreasing annual precipitation. Annual snowfall was determined to be decreasing except in the extreme northeast, where annual snowfall was determined to be increasing. Decreases in annual potential evapotranspiration were detected in the south, and increases were detected in the north. Annual soil moisture increased in southern areas and decreased in northern and eastern areas. The potential spatial and temporal nonstationarity violations detected in the four analysis periods have important implications for flood-frequency analysis and point to the need for guidance on how to incorporate nonstationarities into future flood-frequency analysis in Minnesota.

Released March 04, 2025 13:21 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5064-H

Karen R. Ryberg, Tara Williams-Sether

Standardized guidelines for completing flood-flow frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5. In recent decades (since about 2000), a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence (periods of clustered floods or droughts, or wet or dry periods) and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change have caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumptions underlying methods in Bulletin 17C. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance on incorporating nonstationarities and further identifies a need for flood-frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. As part of that reexamination, a study of annual peak streamflow (peak flow) has begun in the Midwest. This chapter of the study summarizes how hydroclimatic variability affects peak flows in North Dakota.

In this analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate metrics, four periods were selected: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Output from a monthly water-balance model was used for the climate data. Statistical analysis of peak flow consisted of evaluations of autocorrelation, trends, and change points and was augmented with analyses of seasonality and daily streamflow. The long-term pattern of decreasing peak flow in the west and increasing peak flow in the east is a pattern of opposing signals on either side of the 100th meridian. Analyses indicate that a key factor in changing hydroclimatology is the increase in fall precipitation. The trends in soil moisture closely match the trends in annual precipitation. Nonstationary flood-frequency analysis necessitates detailed exploratory data analysis and additional data and information about climate, land use, and other factors. This study provides extensive exploratory analysis for peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data for North Dakota, setting the stage for informed nonstationary flood-frequency analysis.

Released March 04, 2025 10:48 EST

2025, JGR Biogeosciences (130)

A.M. Bisson, F. Liu, Eric M. Moore, Martin A. Briggs, A.M. Helton

Groundwater delivery of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to stream banks and riparian areas, before mixing with surface waters, has not been well quantified. We measured preferential groundwater delivery of GHGs to stream banks within three stream reaches, and found that stream banks with discharging groundwater emitted more CO₂ and were sources of N₂O compared to stream banks without actively discharging groundwater, which emitted less CO₂ and were N₂O sinks. At one of our stream reaches, groundwater CO₂ and N₂O concentrations were 1.4–19.2 and 1.1–40.6 times higher than those in surface water, respectively, and groundwater delivery rates of CO₂ and N₂O were 1.5 and 1.6 times higher than surface water emissions per unit area. On average, 21% (range 0%–100%) of CO₂ and N₂O were emitted at the stream bank before mixing with surface waters. Preferential groundwater GHG emissions may contribute substantially to stream corridor emissions and may be underestimated when using a channel-centric approach to estimate riverine GHG budgets.

Released March 04, 2025 09:32 EST

2025, Pathogens (14)

W. David Walter, Allen Jeffrey Herbst, Chia-Hua Lue, Jason C. Bartz, M. Camille Hopkins

Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a prion disease that affects Cervidae species, and is the only known prion disease transmitted among wildlife species. The key pathological feature is the conversion of the normal prion protein (PrP^C) misfolding into abnormal forms (PrP^Sc), triggering the onset of CWD infections. The misfolding can generate distinct PrP^Sc conformations (strains) giving rise to diverse disease phenotypes encompassing pathology, incubation period, and clinical signs. These phenotypes operationally define distinct prion strains, a pivotal element in monitoring CWD spread and zoonotic potential—a complex endeavor compounded by defining and tracking CWD strains. This review pursues a tripartite objective: 1. to address the intricate challenges inherent in ongoing CWD strain classification; 2. to provide an overview of the known CWD-infected isolates, the strains they represent and their passage history; and 3. to describe the spatial diversity of CWD strains in North America, enriching our understanding of CWD strain dynamics. By delving into these dimensions, this review sheds light on the intricate interplay among polymorphisms, biochemical properties, and clinical expressions of CWD. This endeavor aims to elevate the trajectory of CWD research, advancing our insight into prion disease.

Released March 04, 2025 09:27 EST

2025, Ecosystem Services (72)

Kenneth J. Bagstad, Stefano Balbi, Greta Adamo, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Flavio Affinito, Simon Willcock, Ainhoa Magrach, Kiichiro Hayashi, Zuzana Harmackova, Aidin Niamir, Bruno Smets, Marcel Buchhorn, Evangelia Drakou, Alessandra Alfieri, Bram Edens, Luis Gonzalez Morales, Agnes Vari, Maria-Jose Sanz, Ferdinando Villa

Despite continued, rapid growth in the literature, the fragmentation of information is a major barrier to more timely and credible ecosystem services (ES) assessments. A major reason for this fragmentation is the currently limited state of interoperability of ES data, models, and software. The FAIR Principles, a recent reformulation of long-standing open science goals, highlight the importance of making scientific knowledge Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable. Critically, FAIR aims to make science more transparent and transferable by both people and computers. However, it is easier to make data and models findable and accessible through data and code repositories than to achieve interoperability and reusability. Achieving interoperability will require more consistent adherence to current technical best practices and, more critically, to build consensus about and consistently use semantics that can represent ES-relevant phenomena. Building on recent examples from major international initiatives for ES (IPBES, SEEA, GEO BON), we illustrate strategies to address interoperability, discuss their importance, and describe potential gains for individual researchers and practitioners and the field of ES. Although interoperability comes with many challenges, including greater scientific coordination than today’s status quo, it is technically achievable and offers potentially transformative advantages to ES assessments needed to mainstream their use by decision makers. Individuals and organizations active in ES research and practice can play critical roles in creating widespread interoperability and reusability of ES science. A representative community of practice targeting interoperability for ES would help advance these goals.

Released March 04, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Bianca Possamai, Rosaura J. Chapina, Daniel Yule, Jason D. Stockwell

Diel vertical migration (DVM) is critical for moving energy and nutrients between surface and deep waters. Mysis sp. (Crustacea: Mysidae) facilitates this process by serving as predator and prey in both benthic and pelagic habitats. Mysis can also exhibit partial DVM (pDVM), where some individuals do not migrate into the pelagia at night or to the benthos during the day. However, whether Mysis pDVM is a fixed (i.e., same individuals migrate) or random (i.e., random individuals migrate) behavior remains unclear. To evaluate that, we tested whether Mysis exhibit pDVM and niche partitioning in Lake Superior by collecting Mysis from benthic and pelagic habitats day and night across depths ranging from 50 to 250 m and estimating their isotopic niche size (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N; Corrected Standard Ellipse Area − SEA_c) and overlap among three life stages. At the population level, Mysis exhibited fixed pDVM structured by life stage. Benthic Mysis (12.9 ± 3.2 mm, mean ± SD) were larger than pelagic Mysis during night (9.6 ± 3.6 mm) and day (8.5 ± 3.6 mm). Adult Mysis (> 15 mm) had larger SEA_c (1.8 ± 0.4 ‰²) compared to juveniles (< 10 mm; 0.3 ± 0.1 ‰²) and sub-adults (10–15 mm; 0.7 ± 0.2 ‰²), and their isotopic niche did not overlap with smaller life stages. Adults exhibited random pDVM (i.e., high isotopic niche overlap), whereas juveniles exhibited fixed pDVM (i.e., low overlap). Our observations indicate complex behaviors across and within Mysis life stages, likely due to varying pressures including size-selective predation, light and temperature thresholds, and nutritional requirements. Consequently, the benthic behavior of adult Mysis needs to be considered in monitoring programs.

Released March 03, 2025 11:40 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5102

Nicholas Cole, David Fulton

Executive Summary

Gaining a better understanding of the human dimensions of waterfowl management to inform the North American Waterfowl Management Plan is a valuable but challenging goal for the future success of waterfowl management. Increasing engagement with key stakeholder groups will lead to more support and effective waterfowl management. Social systems are complex because individual values and preferences may vary across geographic and cultural dimensions, so it is valuable to describe those differences rather than only looking at national-scale trends. Therefore, using broad engagement strategies that do not consider the differences among regional groups may do more harm than good.

This study analyzed a subset of responses from waterfowl hunters (hereafter respondents) in the Southeast region of the United States from a national-scale survey (Patton, 2018). This study compared how respondents’ opinions differed among two subsections of the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways—the Atlantic subflyway and Mississippi subflyway—and responses from the national survey. Respondents in the Atlantic subflyway had a primary home ZIP Code in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Respondents in the Mississippi subflyway had a primary home ZIP Code in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, and Mississippi. Investigating these differences provides waterfowl managers decision-making support and a better understanding of how perceptions may differ among respondents in the Southeast region and the Nation. Responses from each group are presented for each for each survey topic, and statistical tests of homogeneity are included to inform how the differences may be considered when managing for waterfowl and waterfowl hunting.

Respondents from the Mississippi and Atlantic subflyways did not differ substantially except in their perceptions and preferences of waterfowl harvest and harvest regulations. Respondents from the Mississippi subflyway consistently reported a higher average harvest of ducks and geese, emphasized the importance of higher harvest for their satisfaction with waterfowl hunting, and typically placed a greater emphasis on regulatory decisions that facilitated increased harvest opportunity than respondents from the Atlantic subflyway. This emphasis was especially true when preferring species-specific limits more than simpler aggregate limits. Respondents in the Mississippi subflyway were in direct opposition to respondents in the Atlantic subflyway and preferred the opportunity for increased harvest that species-specific bag limits provide.

Respondents in the Mississippi subflyway placed greater emphasis on harvest and larger bag limits compared with respondents in the Atlantic subflyway and the national survey. Respondents in the Atlantic subflyway often aligned with the national survey respondents’ perceptions of harvest that placed a lower emphasis on the number of ducks or geese harvested in comparison to Mississippi subflyway respondents. The Atlantic and Mississippi subflyway respondents reported hunting ducks and geese to a much lower degree than the national survey respondents, who favored only hunting ducks or hunting neither ducks nor geese. Similarly, respondents in the Mississippi and Atlantic subflyways reported that overcrowding, high hunting pressure, and interference from other respondents limited their participation to a higher degree than respondents from the national survey.

The trip-specific preferences for waterfowl hunting in the Southeast region were calculated using latent class analysis and three groups were determined based on individual estimates of attribute importance: generalist, seclusionist, and harvest oriented. The generalist group did not place a high degree of importance on any one attribute and was most likely to choose to not participate given suboptimal conditions. The seclusionist group placed a high degree of importance on lower levels of competition from other groups and felt their well-being was most affected by higher levels of competition. The harvest-oriented group placed a higher degree of importance on harvesting more than three birds and felt their well-being was most negatively affected if they only expected to harvest a single bird. These groups existed uniformly between the Mississippi and Atlantic subflyways, had a slightly higher membership of each group in rural areas, and an overall higher membership in the seclusionist group.

Subsetting national survey data to profile regional differences provides key information to waterfowl managers seeking to make tailored decisions in their region or flyway. This investigation provides an important resource for informed management decisions in the Southeast region and will assist waterfowl managers by supporting engagement and communication with respondents in the Southeastern United States.

Released March 03, 2025 10:59 EST

2025, Environmental Research Communications (7)

Sydney Maya Katz, Toby Matthew Maxwell, Marie-Anne de Graaff, Matthew Germino

Soil organic carbon ('SOC') in drylands comprises nearly a third of the global SOC pool and has relatively rapid turnover and thus is a key driver of variability in the global carbon cycle. SOC is also a sensitive indicator of longer-term directional change and disturbance-responses of ecosystem C storage. Biome-scale disruption of the dryland carbon cycle by exotic annual grass invasions (mainly Bromus tectorum, 'Cheatgrass') threatens carbon storage and corresponding benefits to soil hydrology and nutrient retention. Past studies on cheatgrass impacts mainly focused on total C, and of the few that evaluated SOC, none compared the very different fractions of SOC, such as relatively unstable particulate organic carbon (POC) or relatively stable, mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC). We measured SOC and its POC and MAOC constituents in the surface soils of sites that had sagebrush canopies but differed in whether their understories had been invaded by cheatgrass or not, in both warm and relatively colder ecoregions of the western USA. MAOC stocks were 36.1% less in the 0–10 cm depth and 46.1% less in the 10–20 cm depth in the cheatgrass-invaded stands compared to the uninvaded stands of the warmer Colorado Plateau, but not in the cooler and more carbon-rich Wyoming Basin ecoregion. In plots where cheatgrass increased SOC, it was via unstable POC. These findings indicate that cheatgrass effects on the distribution of soil carbon among POC and MAOC fractions may vary among ecoregions, and that cheatgrass can reduce forms of carbon that are otherwise considered stable and 'secure', i.e. sequestered.

Released March 03, 2025 09:39 EST

2024, Journal of Melittology

Clint R.V. Otto, Larissa L. Bailey, Brianne Du Clos, Tamara Smith, Elaine Evans, Ian Pearse, Saff Killingsworth, Sarina Jepsen, Hollis Woodard

Current bee monitoring efforts have a limited capacity for understanding factors affecting wild bee population changes, including the effects of management. To improve the effectiveness of wild bee monitoring, we first discuss principles of biological monitoring and provide a framework to design monitoring projects to estimate species occupancy, where occupancy is defined as the probability that a Sampling Unit or site is occupied by the focal species. Monitoring practitioners should first define the desired goal or question of monitoring and secondly select the appropriate state variable for monitoring (e.g., species richness, occupancy, abundance). These represent two critical, yet often overlooked, steps in the development of wild bee monitoring projects. As with all forms of demographic monitoring, practitioners who are interested in estimating species occupancy will need to develop a sampling scheme tailored to meet their monitoring objectives. Defining key sampling terms will provide the architecture of their scheme, including the Area of Interest, Sampling Unit, Season, and Replicate Survey. We also highlight data standards, including core data fields that must be collected during Surveys for bee occupancy data and additional, recommended data fields. We illustrate how these monitoring concepts are being applied to the design of a real-world monitoring project for the federally endangered rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis Cresson). This framework was developed in association with the U.S. National Native Bee Monitoring Network. 

Released March 03, 2025 09:34 EST

2025, Ecology Letters (28)

Joseph Michael Eisaguirre, Medeleine G. Lohman, Graham G. Frye, Heather E. Johnson, Thomas V. Riecke, Perry J. Williams

Mortality risk for animals often varies spatially and can be linked to how animals use landscapes. While numerous studies collect telemetry data on animals, the focus is typically on the period when animals are alive, even though there is important information that could be gleaned about mortality risk. We introduce a thinned spatial point process (SPP) modelling framework that couples relative abundance and space use with a mortality process to formally treat the occurrence of mortality events across the landscape as a spatial process. We show how this model can be embedded in a hierarchical statistical framework and fit to telemetry data to make inferences about how spatial covariates drive both space use and mortality risk. We apply the method to two data sets to study the effects of roads and habitat on spatially explicit mortality risk: (1) VHF telemetry data collected for willow ptarmigan in Alaska, and (2) hourly GPS telemetry data collected for black bears in Colorado. These case studies demonstrate the applicability of this method for different species and data types, making it broadly useful in enabling inferences about the mechanisms influencing animal survival and spatial population processes while formally treating survival as a spatial process, especially as the development and implementation of joint analyses continue to progress.

Released March 03, 2025 09:31 EST

2025, Newsletter

Jessica Del Fiacco, Corbin David Hilling

No abstract available.

Released March 03, 2025 09:20 EST

2025, Data Report 1208

Gregory J. Walsh, Nicholas E. Powell

Bedrock roadcuts developed with blasting along the New Hampshire State Route 111 bypass in Windham expose the metasedimentary Silurian Berwick Formation and intrusions of multiple phases of foliated to nonfoliated granite to granitic pegmatite of the Devonian New Hampshire Plutonic Suite. Fracture characterization at two roadway rock cuts (roadcuts) included measurement of fractures over a distance of approximately 225 and 85 meters. The Berwick Formation consists of medium-gray biotite-plagioclase-quartz granofels, biotite schist, and lesser calc-silicate rock. The Berwick Formation is locally sulfidic. Fresh, unweathered roadcuts are mostly gray but exhibit locally rusty weathering. The most conspicuous foliation in the region around the studied roadcuts is steeply northwest dipping to subvertical and northeast-southwest striking. Regionally, the strike of the foliation is consistently to the northeast-southwest, but the dip is locally variable to both the southeast and northwest. About 8 percent of the observed foliation surfaces exhibit limited fracture parting. The limited degree of parting agrees with observations for rocks within the garnet zone of metamorphism elsewhere in the Windham 7.5-minute quadrangle. The most prominent fracture trend is subvertical to steeply northeast-dipping and northwest-southeast striking (strike and dip of about 295°, 80°). The peak trend of steeply dipping fractures at the two exposures is 295°±12° and 289°±6°. Veins observed in the granite occur parallel to the peak fracture trend and consist primarily of quartz, tourmaline, and ankerite with minor amounts of sulfides (arsenopyrite, galena, and rare sphalerite), and trace amounts of apatite and rutile. The observed peak fracture trend at these roadcuts closely agrees with the most prominent fracture trend recognized within the Windham quadrangle. Gently south- to southeast-dipping and east- to northeast-striking fractures occur as joints and as parting fractures along a weak S₃ cleavage. Water-bearing fractures at one exposure occur along joints and gently dipping contacts between the Berwick Formation and the granite to granitic pegmatite of the New Hampshire Plutonic Suite. About 8 percent of the fractures are water-bearing and most water-bearing fractures are gently dipping to the southeast. Fracture data separated by rock type shows a similar distribution for steeply dipping northwest-striking trends, but with much fewer observed steeply north-dipping fractures in the granitic rocks. Both rock types show a cluster of gently south-dipping fractures. The granites show far fewer steeply dipping northeast-striking fractures, which reflects a greater degree of parting along the foliation in the metasedimentary rocks than in the granites. No foliation-parallel fractures were observed in the granites, but some contacts between granites and the Berwick Formation do exhibit parting. Fracture termination classification yields 3 percent abutting, 76 percent dead end, and 21 percent crossing (or throughgoing) fractures.

Six brittle faults were observed, which strike northeast and most dip steeply to the northwest. Calculated paleostress tensors for the faults show an average stress field that is consistent with Late Triassic to Early Jurassic northwest-southeast extension associated with rifting of the New England crust during the initial opening of the Atlantic Basin. Fault data are consistent with brittle reactivation of the northeast striking and northwest dipping dominant foliation.

Released March 03, 2025 09:05 EST

2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (122)

Ryan E. Langendorf, James A. Estes, Jane C. Watson, Michael C. Kenner, Brian B. Hatfield, M.T. Tinker, Ellen Waddle, Megan L. DeMarche, Daniel F. Doak

Sea otters are an iconic keystone predator that can maintain kelp forests by preying on grazing invertebrates such as sea urchins. However, the effects of sea otters on kelp forests vary over their geographic range. Here, we analyze two 30-y datasets on kelp forest communities during the reintroduction of sea otters along the west coast of Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and around San Nicolas Island, CA. We developed a community model to estimate species interactions as dynamic rates, varying with community state. We find evidence of a classic trophic cascade off Vancouver Island; the arrival of otters quickly led to depletion of urchins and recovery of kelp. However, this cascade was muted around San Nicolas Island, with otters, urchins, and kelp all coexisting at intermediate densities for multiple years. Our models show that this difference came from a pulse of strong otter impacts on urchins following recolonization off Vancouver Island, but not off San Nicolas Island. The mean effects of otters on urchins and urchins on kelp were not stronger in the north, indicating that interaction dynamics and not average interaction strength are key to explaining differences in community trajectories. We also find stronger multistep interaction chains in the south, arising from competitive interactions that indirectly buffered otter effects. These findings shed light on long-standing hypotheses about how interspecific interactions can alter the function of keystone species across community contexts. More broadly, we show how community change can be more accurately predicted by considering dynamic interaction strengths.

Released March 03, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, Environmental Modelling & Software (188)

Qian Zhang, Gary W. Shenk, Gopal Bhatt, Isabella Bertani

Reductions of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads have been the focus of watershed restoration in many regions for improving water quality, including the Chesapeake Bay. Watershed models and riverine monitoring data can provide important information on the progress of load reductions but do not always generate consistent interpretations. A new framework for integrated visualization and analysis of monitoring and modeling data, named “Monitored and Expected Total Reduction Indicator for the Chesapeake (METRIC),” was developed to provide spatially explicit trends for the subwatersheds of the Chesapeake Bay. METRIC contains up-to-date information on nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment at 83, 66, and 66 stations, respectively, which can help watershed managers gauge expectations on the trajectory and pace of progress at localized scales. These results were further synthesized to better understand the spatial patterns of the response classes (i.e., agreement between the expected and monitored trends) across the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

Released March 03, 2025 08:54 EST

2025, Preprint

Theodore J. Zenzal Jr., Amanda Nicole Anderson, Delaina LeBlanc, Robert C. Dobbs, Brock Geary, Hardin Waddle

Restoration of barrier island and headland habitats can alter existing and create new habitats, which may impact wildlife occupying these areas such as the threatened Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus). We used resight data from banded birds to develop minimum convex polygon (MCP) and kernel density estimates (KDE) of individual Piping Plover home ranges to investigate whether changes in habitat use resulted from restoration activities at Whiskey Island and Caminada Headland, Louisiana. We quantified home range areas for each season and compared changes among pre-restoration, active restoration, and post-restoration phases at each site. We had sufficient sample sizes from Whiskey Island to compare home ranges derived by MCP during the pre-restoration phase to the active restoration phase. However, we did not have enough resight data to analyze post-restoration phase by MCP or any phase by KDE at Whiskey Island. For Caminada Headland, we were able to compare all phases of restoration using MCP, but only had sufficient data to compare pre-restoration and active restoration phases using KDE. Aside from one significant decrease in core (50% isopleth) home range at Caminada Headland when comparing MCPs between post-restoration (∼8 ha) and pre-restoration (∼11 ha) phases, we found no other differences in home range size across phases at either of our study sites. The sum of all evidence generally indicating no change to Piping Plover home range size suggests that barrier island and headland restoration did not have significant positive or negative impacts. The weak response to restoration activities further suggests that birds are using similar or smaller amounts of habitat after restoration is complete and may not need to expand their foraging range following restoration. Further study can help to understand how species of conservation concern respond to coastal restoration efforts, which is critical for establishing comprehensive conservation strategies aimed at species recovery.

Released March 03, 2025 08:35 EST

2025, Cold Regions Science and Technology (231)

James W. Dillon, Erich Peitzsch, Zachary Miller, Perry Bartelt, Kevin D. Hammonds

Glide avalanches present a significant and repetitive challenge to many operational forecasting programs, and they are likely to become more frequent. While the spatial location of glide release areas is extremely consistent, the onset of glide avalanche release is notoriously difficult to forecast, and their destructive potential can be immense. Thus, the timing and dynamics of glide avalanches is an important area of study. To better understand these processes, and to improve assessments of risk to transportation corridors and infrastructure, event documentation is key. Here, we survey a large glide avalanche event along the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, during road opening operations in the spring of 2022. Using three sets of terrestrial lidar data (pre-event, post-event, and snow-off), we quantified key aspects of the avalanche and created powerful visualizations for analysis. Further, we evaluated meteorological data from automated weather stations between the onset of glide cracking and avalanche release. Last, we synthesized lidar data with a numerical dynamics model to replicate the event in a simulated environment. Using the tuned model, we determined the critical mean snow depth in the release area necessary for an avalanche to reach the road (4.2 m). Our method may be of particular use for glide avalanches, which tend to release in roughly the same place and time each year at a known interface. This could make the calculated critical depths more consistently reliable and preclude the need for additional tuning in dynamics models. As 1) lidar technology continues to improve and reduce in cost, 2) transportation corridors continue to extend into avalanche terrain, and 3) glide avalanches potentially become increasingly frequent, the synthesis outlined here provides a valuable tool for operational forecasters considering infrastructure threatened by glide events.

Released March 03, 2025 08:32 EST

2025, Rangeland Ecology & Management (99) 77-87

Matthew B. Rigge, Brett Bunde, Sarah E. McCord, Georgia Harrison, Timothy J. Assal, James L. Smith

Geospatial products such as fractional vegetation cover maps often report overall, pixel-wise accuracy, but decision-making with these products often occurs at coarser scales. As such, data users often desire guidance on the appropriate spatial scale to apply these data. We worked toward establishing this guidance by assessing RCMAP (Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection) accuracy relative to a series of high-resolution predictions of component cover. We scale the 2-m and RCMAP predictions to various focal window sizes scales ranging from 30 to 1 500 m using focal averaging. We also evaluated variation in scaling effects on error at ecoregion and pasture (mean area of 1 050 ha) scales. Our results demonstrate increased accuracy at broader windows, across all components, and most increases in accuracy level off at ∼200–600 m scales. At the scale with highest accuracy, cross-component average correlation (r) increased by 6.5%, and root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced 46.4% relative to 30-m scale data. Scaling-related improvements to accuracy were greatest in components such as shrub and tree with more spatially heterogeneous cover and in ecoregions with more spatially heterogenous cover. When components were aggregated at the pasture scale, r increased 10% and RMSE decreased 34.3% on average relative to the 30-m scale. Our results provide empirical data on the scale dependence of error, which fractional cover data users may consider alongside their needs when using these data. Although the general principle remains that remotely sensed products are intended to address landscape-scale questions, our analysis indicates that applying data at finer than landscape spatial scales and grouping even a handful of pixels resulted in lowered error compared to pixel-level comparisons. Our results quantify the trade-offs between data granularity and error related to scale for fractional vegetation cover.

Released March 03, 2025 08:23 EST

2025, Conservation Letters (18)

Chloe Schmidt, Eleana Karachaliou, A.G. Vandergast, Eric D. Crandall, Jeff T. Falgout, Margaret Hunter, Francine Kershaw, Deborah M. Leigh, David O'Brien, Ivan Paz-Vinas, Gernot Segelbacher, Colin J. Garroway

Global conservation targets aim to expand protected areas and maintain species’ genetic diversity. Whether protected areas capture genetic diversity is unclear. We examined this question using a global sample of nuclear population-level microsatellite data comprising genotypes from 2513 sites, 134,183 individuals, and 176 mammal and marine fish species. The genetic diversity and differentiation of samples inside and outside protected areas were similar, with some evidence for higher diversity in protected areas for small-bodied mammals. Mammal populations, particularly large species, tended to be more genetically diverse when near multiple protected areas, regardless of whether samples were collected in or outside protected areas. Older marine protected areas tended to capture more genetically diverse fish populations. However, limited data availability in many regions hinders the systematic incorporation of genetic diversity into protected area design. Focusing on minimizing population decline and maintaining connectivity between protected areas remain essential proxies for maintaining genetic diversity.

Released March 03, 2025 08:17 EST

2025, Journal of Hazardous Materials (485)

Alain Manceau, Paco Bustamante, Etienne Richy, Yves Cherel, Sarah E. Janssen, Pieter Glatzel, Brett A. Poulin

Apex marine predators, such as toothed whales and large petrels and albatrosses, ingest mercury (Hg) primarily in the form of methylmercury (MeHg) via prey consumption, which they detoxify as tiemannite (HgSe). One of the most intriguing current questions in Hg research is how more abundant lower trophic level predators detoxify MeHg, particularly in marine environments where tissue Hg burdens can be elevated. To address this need, we used high energy-resolution X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy paired with nitrogen (N) and Hg stable isotopes to identify the chemical forms of Hg, Hg source, and species-specific δ²⁰²Hg isotopic values in emperor penguin, a mesopredator feeding primarily on Antarctic silverfish. The penguin liver contains variable proportions of MeHg and two inorganic Hg species (IHg), Hg-dithiolate (Hg(SR)₂) and Hg-tetraselenolate (Hg(Sec)₄) complexes, each characterized by a specific isotopic value (δ²⁰²MeHg = 0.3 ± 0.2‰, δ²⁰²Hg(SR)₂ = −1.6 ± 0.2‰, δ²⁰²Hg(Sec)₄ = −2.0 ± 0.1‰). Using δ¹⁵N as tracer of food source, we show that Hg(SR)₂ is not dietary but a biochemical demethylation product of MeHg metabolism. Penguin females transfer Hg to the egg as MeHg in the egg albumen, 89% MeHg and 11% IHg in the membrane, and 32% MeHg and 68% Hg(Sec)₄ in the yolk, on average (n = 15). Despite IHg species in eggs, MeHg is the main species quantitatively transferred by the mother to the chick because of the disproportionate mass of the MeHg-rich albumen compared to the yolk (n = 18). Further research is needed to elucidate the MeHg to Hg(SR)₂ demethylation pathway firmly documented here for the first time in multicellular organisms, and to understand why the thiolate ligands are not exchanged for Se ligands to form Hg(Sec)₄, as the liver does not suffer from Se deficiency.

Released March 03, 2025 08:10 EST

2025, Agricultural Water Management (309)

Lei Ji, Gabriel B. Senay, MacKenzie Friedrichs, Stefanie Kagone

Estimation of irrigation water use provides essential information for the management and conservation of agricultural water resources. Conventionally, water use data are created based on reports and surveys from water users, whereas manual records may not be complete due to lacking flow meters, measurement gaps, inconsistent methods across regions, and time- and cost-consuming data processing. Alternatively, spatially explicit estimation of irrigation water use can be conducted efficiently using remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) modeling approaches. In this study, we created a gridded blue water evapotranspiration (BWET) dataset to estimate historical irrigation water consumption (1986 – 2020) in the croplands across the United States High Plains aquifer region. The BWET data were generated by integrating an energy-balance ET model [Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop)] and a water-balance ET model [Vegetation ET model (VegET)]. BWET in croplands indicates crop consumptive use of irrigation water extracted from surface water and groundwater resources. The BWET estimates were compared with reported irrigation water use data for all counties within the aquifer region. The results revealed high agreement between growing season (May – September) BWET and annual water withdrawal at county level. Specifically, correlation coefficients of volumetric BWET and water withdrawal were 0.90 and 0.96, respectively, for the entire aquifer region and western Kansas. The timeseries of BWET and water withdrawal showed similar temporal trends and high covariations. The BWET estimates were systematically lower than the water withdrawal measurements, which was primarily attributed to blue water losses in the irrigation system. The irrigation efficiency, calculated as the ratio of BWET to water withdrawal depth, was 0.57 and 0.74 for the entire aquifer region and western Kansas, respectively. This study demonstrates the capability of using satellite-based ET models (e.g., SSEBop and VegET) to efficiently estimate crop water consumption and evaluate irrigation efficiency at landscape, county, and regional scales.

Released March 03, 2025 07:54 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Spencer R. Roop, Keith Reinhardt, Ken A. Aho, Matthew Germino, Bryce A. Richardson

Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) is a widespread and locally dominant shrub throughout many ecosystems in western North America. A. tridentata ssps. tridentata and wyomingensis are two subspecies whose populations occupy the warm-arid regions of the species range and whose trailing edge is threatened by climate change. Previous studies have presented conflicting results in relation to the genetic control of physiological variation in A. tridentata. Understanding how different genetic factors contribute to physiological variation can provide insight into how these two subspecies may respond to future climate change. To explore possible variation among and within two subspecies of A. tridentata, we measured physiological and morphological traits in A. t. tridentata and A. t. wyomingensis during mid-summer (July), seven years after establishment in a common garden. Contributions to trait variation were quantified for both genetic (subspecies and cytotype) and environmental (climate-of-origin) factors. Measurements revealed an unequal contribution to phenotypic variation by subspecies, cytotype, and climate-of-origin. Ploidy and climate-of-origin were more important than subspecies in driving phenotypic variation in A. tridentata. These findings suggest that A. tridentata has a highly plastic drought response, or that culling (mortality over time due to environmental factors) in the common garden over seven years has led to a lack of genetic diversity within the garden. Understanding what factors drive phenotypic expression in big sagebrush can provide better insight into how climate change may affect migration and extirpation and may aid in the effectiveness of restoration efforts.

Released March 03, 2025 07:53 EST

2025, Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) (61)

John T. Kemper, Kristen L. Underwood, Scott Douglas Hamshaw, Dany Davis, Jason Siemion, James B. Shanley, Andrew W. Schroth

As high-frequency sensor networks increasingly enhance data-driven models of water quality, process-based models like the U.S. National Water Model (NWM) are generating accessible forecasts of streamflow at increasingly dense scales. There is now an opportunity to combine these products to construct actionable water quality forecasts. To that end, we couple streamflow forecasts from the NWM to a gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm (LightGBM) trained on 5+ years of high-frequency monitoring data to forecast in-stream turbidity levels in the Catskill Mountains, NY, USA. Results indicate LightGBM models are capable of relatively skillful predictions, which enable robust forecasts for 1–3 days lead times. LightGBM models offer improvements over a simplified linear model across the entire forecast horizon, and more spatially complex models are more resilient to error at shorter lead times (1–3 days). Moreover, interpretation of model features emphasizes high flows as a driver of turbidity in the region. Results suggest that interpretable, flexible, and efficient machine learning algorithms can produce capable water quality forecasts from streamflow forecasts and expand understanding of process dynamics. The use case illustrated here—to our knowledge the first NWM-based water quality forecast—underscores the potential to employ the NWM to expand national water quality forecasting capacity and can overall serve as a guide for similar efforts in basins across the country.

Released March 02, 2025 09:37 EST

2025, Earth's Future (13)

Joel Lisonbee, Britt Parker, Erica Fleishman, Trent Ford, R. Kyle Bocinsky, Gretel Follingstad, Abby G. Frazier, Zachary H. Hoylman, Amy R. Hudson, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Natalie A. Umphlett, Elliot Wickham, Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, Royce Fontenot, Brian Fuchs, John C. Hammond, Jeffrey E. Herrick, Mike Hobbins, Andy Hoell, Jacob Jones, Erin Lane, Zack Leasor, Yongqiang Liu, Jason A. Otkin, Amanda Sheffield, Dennis Todey, Roger Pulwarty

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.

Released March 01, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, Conference Paper

Jacob Elliott Anderson, Jonathan M.G. Glen, William D. Schermerhorn, Tait E. Earney, Benjamin Lyter Morbeck

The San Andreas Fault – Imperial Fault (SAF-IF) transtensional step-over zone along the southern margin of the Salton Sea hosts substantial geothermal production and lithium brine resources. Recent volcanism at the Salton Buttes and active seismicity along the SAFIF fault system highlight active tectonic and magmatic processes that pose natural hazards and may impact energy and mineral production. Characterizing the subsurface architecture and extent of concealed alteration associated with this tectono-magmatic system enhances understanding of these active processes, associated hazards, and resources.

We have compiled a gravity database, consisting of new and re-processed existing data, from which we have constructed a new isostatic residual gravity anomaly map of the Salton trough. We have used this new gravity dataset together with a compilation of publicly available borehole data to develop new depth to basement inversion models for the region. These depth to basement models help to constrain basin geometries, inform alteration mapping, and reveal variations in basement rocks. Due to the concealed nature of the complex tectonic framework at the Salton trough, it is necessary to utilize geophysical methods for subsurface characterization. These new depth to basement models are a first step toward constructing 2D and 3D geophysical and geologic models of the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea geothermal area. This analysis complements other geophysical initiatives, including magnetotelluric (MT) modeling (Tokmakoff et al., 2024), magnetic mapping (Glen and Earney, 2023, 2024) and potential field modeling, and seismic studies focused on hazard and resource investigations in the Imperial Valley.

Released March 01, 2025 09:10 EST

2025, Conference Paper, Measuring and accounting for environmental public goods: A national accounts perspective

Travis Warziniack, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Michael Knowles, Christopher Mihiar, Arpita Nehra, Charles Rhodes, Leslie Sanchez, Christopher Sichko, Charles B. Sims

Nicholas Z. Muller, Eli P. Fenichel, Mary Bohman, editor(s)

This paper creates a first set of forest natural capital accounts and demonstrates how these accounts can be integrated with general equilibrium models of the economy. Focusing on the Colorado River Basin, we show that deforestation has direct implications for the forest industry and indirect impacts on the economy through water treatment costs and carbon stock. 327,000 acres of forest are projected to be lost to development by 2100, representing a loss of 1.3 million tons of carbon stored in forests. The direct economic impacts associated with forest loss are estimated to be over $30 million, with $28 million of that coming directly from the value of lost carbon.

Released March 01, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (969)

Angie Lenard, Therese Burns, Michelle Hladik, Kaylene Keller, Samantha Marcum, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Matthew L. Forister

An important goal for the applied ecological sciences is to understand the extent to which the biodiversity on conserved or managed lands is exposed to anthropogenic stressors. Among the various categories of conserved lands in the United States, the National Wildlife Refuge System is focused on the protection and management of native wildlife and plant populations. Refuge lands can be associated with wetlands and, especially in California, tend to be near areas of intense human use, including agriculture. The proximity of refuges to cultivated lands results in potential exposure to pesticide drift, which increases the possibility of non-target effects on plants and wildlife. We used a passive sampler approach to quantify aerial pesticide deposition during 28 days in spring of 2023, across five refuges in the Sacramento Valley of California. Pesticides were detected across all refuges and plots within the study area, with 36 individual compounds identified, including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides, from 176 silicone bands from 49 plots. Distance to agriculture was not an important predictor in our models for most indices of contamination. However, our models revealed that the nearest crop type was an important mediator of the importance of distance to agriculture, as fungicide contamination decreased with distance to agriculture only when orchards were the nearest crop type. The overall lack of distance effects suggests that the interior of refuges in the study area do not necessarily provide more protection from pesticides than refuge edges, although larger refuges could offer more protection. We currently lack information on how the level of contamination found herein is biologically relevant to wildlife, and ongoing monitoring efforts have found productive communities of insects in the study area. The results of this study provide a foundation for future investigations on refuges to analyze impacts of specific pesticide compounds on plants and wildlife.

Released March 01, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Report

Mark Richard Dufour, Francesco Guzzo, Corbin David Hilling, Kevin R. Keretz, Richard Kraus, Richard Cole Oldham, James Roberts, Joseph Schmitt

A comprehensive understanding of fish populations and their interactions is the cornerstone of modern fishery management and the basis for Lake Erie’s Fish Community Objectives (FCOs) developed in 2020 (Francis et al. 2020). The 2024 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Lake Erie Biological Station Annual Report is responsive to these FCOs and the USGS obligations via a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU 2017) with the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) Council of Lake Committees (CLC) to provide scientific information in support of fishery management. Goals for the USGS Great Lakes Deepwater Fish Assessment and Ecological Studies were to monitor long-term changes in the fish community and track population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies. Specific to Lake Erie, expectations were sustained investigations of native percids, prey fish populations, and Lake Trout. All work was conducted as part of the Deepwater Science Program under the authority of the Great Lakes Fishery Research Authorization Act of 2019 (16 USC §941h). The USGS 2024 Deepwater Science Program fieldwork began in Lake Erie in March and concluded in December, using trawl, gill net, hydroacoustic, lower trophic sampling devices, and telemetry methods. This work resulted in 44 bottom trawls covering 41 ha of lake bottom and catching 48,936 fish totaling 995 kg in the West Basin of Lake Erie, with detailed results described below. Overnight gill net sets (n=25) for coldwater species were performed in the East Basin of Lake Erie. A total of 8 km of gillnet was deployed during these surveys, which caught 106 fish, 92 of which were native coldwater species: Lake Trout, Burbot, and Lake Whitefish. Results from coldwater species assessments will be reported in the Coldwater Task Group report to the GLFC and the CLC (CTG 2025). These reports are used to inform Lake Trout stocking decisions and direct lamprey control measures (16 USC §939a). USGS hydroacoustic sampling included twenty-six 5-km transects (130 km total) in the Central Basin as part of a collaborative lake-wide survey with details and results reported by the Forage Task Group (FTG 2025). Lower trophic sampling provided data from zooplankton samples (n=12) and water quality profiles (n=12) to populate a database maintained by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR), Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC), and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). USGS also assisted CLC member agencies with deployment and maintenance of Great Lakes Acoustic Telemetry Observation System (GLATOS) infrastructure throughout all three Lake Erie basins and tributaries, supporting multiple coordinated telemetry investigations. This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2024 during June and September. The survey design compliments the August ODNR- OMNRF effort by reinforcing stock assessments with more robust data. Analyses herein evaluated trends in total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity, and community structure. Data from this effort are accessible for download (Keretz et al. 2025)

Released March 01, 2025 08:58 EST

2025, Report, State of the birds report, United States of America 2025

North American Bird Conservation Initiative, A. Rodewald, Mike Brasher, John Alexander, Elisabeth M. Ammon, Tracy E. Borneman, Dustin Brewer, Stephen Brown, Jennie N. Duberstein, Beth Flint, Adam Hannuksela, Kathleen Holland, Jeffrey A. Hostetler, Edwin Juarez, Robin Kaler, Chris Latimer, Elva Manquera, Kate Martin, Chris McCreedy, Nicole Michel, Corina Newsome, Andrew Olsen, Marc Romano, Kenneth V. Rosenberg, B. Ryder, Rebekah J. Rylander, John R. Sauer, Adam Smith, Dena Spatz, Caleb Spiegel, Tice Supplee, Roberta Swift, Eric VanderWerf, Josh Vest, Olivia Wang

Following the approach developed by Gregory and van Strien (2010), State of the Birds reports focus on composite summaries of population change for collections of species that share common primary habitat or taxonomic affinity. In this report, we provide composite indexes for habitat-obligate species as defined in earlier reports (Grassland, Aridland, Eastern Forest and Western Forest), for several taxonomic-based groups (Shorebirds, Waterbirds, Geese and Swans, Sea Ducks, and Dabbling/Diving Duck species), and for species on our Tipping Point list with adequate data. Lists of species included in each habitat-obligate group are presented as supplemental material at StateoftheBirds.org.

Released February 28, 2025 10:44 EST

2025, Marine Geology (483)

Stephen C. Phillips, Joel E. Johnson, William Clyde, Wei-Li Hong, Jacob Setera, Marta E. Torres

We investigated sediment core records from the Cascadia Margin (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1249 and 1252 at Hydrate Ridge; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1325 offshore Vancouver Island) using a Zr/Rb heavy mineral proxy from X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning to identify intervals of primary detrital magnetic susceptibility (κ) and predict intervals where diagenesis caused magnetite dissolution by hydrogen sulfide. We also measured total sulfur (TS) content, grain size distributions, total organic carbon (TOC) content, and the magnetic mineral assemblage to further constrain the role of diagenesis on κ. Understanding how κ can be used to better characterize the varied effects of detrital and diagenetic signals in marine settings is important for understanding biogeochemical cycling and records of paleoenvironmental change. The upper 100 m of slope basin Site 1252 contains multiple intervals (> 90 m total) of decreased κ correlated with elevated TS content, consistent with dissolution of magnetite and precipitation of pyrite, iron monosulfides, and/or elemental sulfur. Similarly at the other slope basin site, Site U1325, κ is lower and TS is elevated in the interval between 24 and 51 mbsf, due to sulfide formation. At both slope basin sites, these low κ intervals correspond with high TOC, suggesting the possibility that organoclastic sulfate reduction (OSR) is likely a major driver of diagenetic alteration of κ at these sites. High TS:TOC ratios at Site U1325 suggests anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) during sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) migration may have contributed to alteration of κ. In contrast, within the upper 90 m of Site 1249, a methane seep site at the summit of Hydrate Ridge, κ is almost entirely altered by diagenetic processes, with much of the low κ explained by a high degree of iron sulfide formation, while some intervals are affected by precipitation of magnetic iron sulfides that maintain or even increase κ. The presence of abundant methane seepage and gas hydrate as well as chemosynthetic seafloor fauna at this site, suggests that sulfide is released to the water column and AOM, rather than OSR, drives diagenetic alteration of κ at this site. Overall, the slope basin sites show episodic variation of κ that is influenced by TOC content, likely driven by changes in marine primary productivity and sedimentation rate, while the seep site shows consistently altered κ with lower TS content and no correlation with TOC. Methane seep environments likely experience loss of hydrogen sulfide to the water column and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide by seafloor seep fauna, which limits the amount of solid phase sulfur (pyrite, iron monosulfides, elemental sulfur) that can be precipitated within the sediments. In contrast, the migration of a buried SMTZ at slope basin sites results in enhanced sulfur precipitation within the sediments. This integrated magnetic and geochemical approach reveals the diagenetic production pathway and residence time of sulfide with the sediment column ultimately controls the style and degree of diagenetic loss of κ in marine sediments. This approach works best in environments with unaltered reference intervals/sites, consistent magnetic mineralogy, and clay-to-silt grain sizes.

Released February 28, 2025 09:45 EST

2025, Cells (14)

Jill Jenkins, Scott Mize, Darren Johnson, Bonnie L. Brown

Typical investigations into the biological consequences of suspected xenobiotics or nutrients introduced in watersheds include analytical chemistry screens of environmental samples—such as periphyton responses or studies of fish condition—which are all costly in terms of equipment, reagents, time, and human resources. An alternative is to assess pollutant effects on waterborne bacteria. A flow cytometric method was developed to yield rapid, same-day results that could be used to proactively screen for suspected chemical inputs into watersheds using water sampling methods that are identical to those in standard use. The analytical methods are microbe cultivation-independent, for use with waterborne bacteria that are typically viable but not culturable. The procedure is quick and inexpensive, generating measures of bacterial esterase that reflect metabolic activity and are sensitive and statistically robust. After phosphate-EDTA incubation to increase cell wall permeability, staining was performed with 5(6) carboxyfluorescein diacetate (enzyme activity) and propidium iodide (cell viability) with three bacterial species in exponential phase growth having been incubated with organic wastewater compounds (atrazine, pharmaceuticals [17α-ethynylestradiol and trenbolone], and antimicrobials [tylosin and butylparaben]). This method successfully detected metabolic changes in all bacterial species, with atrazine inducing the greatest change. Additional fluorescent stains can target specific microbial structures or functions of interest in a particular watershed. This biotechnology can inform analytical chemistry and study of biota at sites of interest and has the potential to be automated.

Released February 28, 2025 09:39 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1006

Md Obaidul Haque, Md Nahid Hasan, Ashish Shrestha, Rajagopalan Rengarajan, Mark Lubke, Jerad L. Shaw, Kathryn Ruslander, Esad Micijevic, Michael J. Choate, Cody Anderson, Jeff Clauson, Kurt Thome, Ed Kaita, Raviv Levy, Jeff Miller, Leibo Ding

Executive Summary 

The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level.

This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 3 (July–September) of 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website at https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov.

Released February 28, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, Science of the Total Environment (969)

John Wheeler, Gabrielle Pecora Black, Michelle Hladik, Corey Sanders, Jennifer Teerlink, Luann Wong, Xuyang Zhang, Robert Budd, Thomas M Young

Pesticides are prevalent in wastewater, yet few studies have measured pesticides in biosolids and aqueous media from samples collected concurrently. Seventeen California wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were sampled in May 2020. Biosolids samples were analyzed for 27 analytes, and paired aqueous samples (influent and effluent) were analyzed for 23 analytes. Analytes included fipronil and its transformation products (fiproles), pyrethroids, novaluron, and several other pesticides with down-the-drain transport potential. Of the 27 compounds analyzed in biosolids samples, 16 were detected in at least one sample, and 10 had a detection frequency (DF) of at least 25 %. Fipronil sulfone, fipronil sulfide, and fipronil were the most frequently detected fiproles (DF = 100 %, 94 %, and 67 %, respectively); permethrin was the most frequently detected pyrethroid (DF = 100 %), followed by bifenthrin (DF = 94 %), cyhalothrin (DF = 89 %), and etofenprox (DF = 78 %). To elucidate fipronil transformation pathways within the treatment system, data from the three sample types were compared; findings were generally consistent with transformation pathways reported previously (e.g., some fiproles were rarely detected in influent or biosolids, but frequently detected in effluent, indicating their formation during the treatment process). No correlations were found between WWTP characteristics and pesticide concentrations in biosolids. The fraction of organic carbon (f_OC) of each biosolids sample was measured, and a statistically significant negative correlation was observed between f_OC and some fiproles, but not fipronil; possible explanations are discussed. Additional analysis for two major agricultural pesticides (bifenthrin and permethrin) indicated that estimated mass loads of these pesticides in biosolids applied to land as a soil amendment are minimal (approximately 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower) compared to inputs from agricultural applications. This study provides insight on the magnitude of pesticides entering the environment via land-applied biosolids; existing regulations surrounding agricultural pesticide applications are expected to also be protective of the relatively low inputs from biosolids.

Released February 28, 2025 08:56 EST

2025, Avian Diseases

Jeffery D. Sullivan, Johanna Alexandra Harvey, Rebecca L. Poulson, David E. Stallknecht, C. Robert Long, Cindy P. Driscoll, Diann Prosser, Jennifer M. Mullinax

Although highly pathogenic avian influenza presents a notable threat to domestic turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo domesticus), there have been minimal infections identified in wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) across the United States. Indeed, recent infections in wild turkeys have either been linked back to or suspected to be the result of spillback from nearby infected domestic turkeys. This study presents avian influenza sampling data for Eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) across the Maryland portion of the Delmarva Peninsula, in the winter of 2023–2024, with an objective of identifying any circulating influenza A viruses (IAVs), as well as determining the extent of previous exposure to IAVs in this population. We collected swab samples from 36 female wild turkeys. No IAV viral RNA was detected in any sample, based on real-time reverse transcriptase PCR. We collected sera from 31 of the 36 sampled individuals, all of which had biomimetic enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (bELISA) S/N values >0.7 (range: 0.79–1.29) indicating a lack of antibodies to IAVs. Although our sample size is limited, these results indicate no evidence of current or recent previous IAV infection in sampled birds.

Released February 28, 2025 08:38 EST

2025, Geophysical Research Letters (52)

Rosemary W.H. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning, Kenneth H. Williams

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Released February 28, 2025 08:35 EST

2025, Preprint

Johanna Alexandra Harvey, Andrew M. Ramey, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Gregory Robertson, Marc Romano, Jennifer M. Mullinax, Megan Boldenow, Philip W. Atkinson, Diann Prosser

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document event scales and inform population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability which will increase the ability to robustly estimate mortality, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, mortality spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods, that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible, are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

Released February 27, 2025 11:50 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1003

Cecily J. Wolfe, Natalia A. Ruppert, Douglas D. Given, Michael E. West, Valerie I. Thomas, Jessica R. Murray, Ronni Grapenthin

Executive Summary

The conference report accompanying the fiscal year (FY) 2022 Consolidated Appropriations Act (Public Law 117–103) for the U.S. Department of the Interior and related agencies directed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to “work with the State of Alaska to develop an implementation plan to be completed within two years in order to put ShakeAlert/Earthquake Early Warning in Alaska” (p. 29). Congress included $1 million in the FY 2022 appropriation to conduct this effort.

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, along with partner organizations, has developed the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast, which currently operates in California, Oregon, and Washington. The purpose of the system and its alert delivery partners is to reduce the impact of earthquakes and save lives and property by delivering ShakeAlert-powered alerts that are transmitted to the public via mass notification technologies, and by providing more detailed data streams to institutional users and commercial service providers to trigger automated, user-specific, protective actions.

ShakeAlert was designed in such a way that it could be expanded to other U.S. regions with high earthquake risk, after the build-out of seismic and geodetic networks to support ShakeAlert in a specified region is completed and the necessary funding is secured for long-term operation and maintenance.

When an earthquake occurs, seismic waves radiate from the rupturing fault like waves on a pond. It is these waves that people feel as earthquake shaking and that can cause damage to structures. Using networks of ground-motion sensors and sophisticated computer algorithms, ShakeAlert can detect an earthquake seconds after it begins, calculate its location and magnitude, and estimate the resulting intensity of shaking. Early warnings of impending shaking are then sent to people and systems that may experience damaging shaking, allowing them to take appropriate protective actions. Depending on the user’s distance from the earthquake, alerts may be delivered before, during, or after the arrival of strong shaking. There will almost always be a region near the earthquake epicenter where alerts arrive after damaging shaking has begun. The ShakeAlert system updates its ground-motion estimates as an earthquake grows larger.

In response to the FY 2022 congressional direction, the USGS worked with the State of Alaska to devise this implementation plan for ShakeAlert expansion to Alaska. The USGS engaged with the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHS&EM) and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (DGGS). A cooperative agreement was awarded to the Alaska Earthquake Center (AEC) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) for their contributions to the plan and their work coordinating with other networks in Alaska. The USGS engaged with the Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission (ASHSC) throughout the process. The USGS also held a series of Alaska stakeholder engagements. The process of developing the implementation plan was facilitated by contracted staff from Corner Alliance, which is a government consulting firm.

This implementation plan describes the details and estimates the costs for a Phase 1 expansion of the ShakeAlert system to Alaska. A geographically limited Phase 1 goal was chosen that covers the highest risk and most populated areas of Alaska. The areas proposed encompass the State’s main population centers and 90 percent of the State’s population. This Phase 1 design is considered very challenging and ambitious from the viewpoint of network operators. The lessons learned if this plan is implemented could be used to consider subsequent phases to expand EEW beyond Phase 1 in Alaska in the future.

ShakeAlert is built on the foundation of the sensor networks and data processing infrastructure of the USGS-led Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). This implementation plan calls for a total of 450 high-quality, real-time EEW-capable ANSS seismic stations in Alaska: 270 new stations, 160 upgraded stations, and 20 existing stations. These seismic station numbers are based on a station spacing of 10 kilometers (km) in urban areas, 20 km in seismic source areas that endanger population centers, and 40 km in other areas. The associated costs also include support for some EEW-capable global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations, with a focus on improving warnings for large subduction zone earthquakes. For effective EEW, ShakeAlert requires low-latency, high-availability, robust telemetry links to deliver continuous, real-time data from field stations to the data centers.

The Alaska data processing hardware infrastructure would follow the general design for fail-safe operation that is used for the ShakeAlert system on the West Coast. The ShakeAlert architecture uses two independent layers: the production layer for earthquake processing and the alert layer to make alerting decisions and serve alerts to users. This implementation plan includes two geographically separated data centers in Alaska, each with two fully independent production and alert layers using the same system design developed for the West Coast. As of March 2024, the ShakeAlert system is at version 3.0.1, with more advanced versions in the development and testing pipeline. ShakeAlert originally used two algorithms to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes using seismic data. A third algorithm that can calculate very large magnitudes of very large earthquakes with geodetic data was added in March 2024.

ShakeAlert publishes several data and alert products to meet the needs of different users. All messages include the location of the earthquake, either as a point or a line, and its magnitude. Ground-shaking estimates are published in two forms, as ground-motion contours and a map grid. Providing adequate warning time for strong shaking (the “target threshold”) requires sending alerts at a threshold lower than that strong shaking level (the “alert threshold”). The thresholds for public alerting in Alaska would be a joint USGS and State decision.

To have the greatest benefit, ShakeAlert-powered alerts would be delivered to institutional users and individuals by all practical pathways. The USGS alert layer can support thousands of institutional users and alert redistributors, but the USGS does not have the mission nor the infrastructure and expertise to perform mass notifications to the public or implement automatic actions for end users of the alerts. To meet this need, ShakeAlert recruits private sector “technology enablers” that have the necessary expertise to develop end-user implementations using EEW alerts with the goal of stimulating an EEW industry.

Earthquake early warning alerts are useless if people do not know how to respond to them. Although the alert messages include instructions about what to do (drop, cover, and hold on), alerts are more effective if people have been trained in advance. Messages about ShakeAlert’s capabilities, limitations, and benefits could be integrated with existing earthquake education programs, including State-run programs. Therefore, ShakeAlert would coordinate with both public and private partners and stakeholders through various partnerships and agreements to accomplish consistent and ongoing public earthquake hazard education.

The estimated capital cost of completing the computing infrastructure and sensor networks for the Phase 1 ShakeAlert expansion to Alaska is approximately $66 million in 2024 dollars. The annual operation and maintenance cost of the completed system is estimated to be $12 million per year in 2024 dollars when fully built out.

Released February 27, 2025 09:28 EST

2025, Environments (12)

Bahareh KarimiDermani, Christopher Green, Geoffrey Tick, Hossein Gholizadeh, Wei Wei, Yong Zhang

Rising nitrate contamination in water systems poses significant risks to public health and ecosystem stability, necessitating advanced modeling to understand nitrate dynamics more accurately. This study applies the long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling to investigate the hydrologic and environmental factors influencing nitrate concentration dynamics in rivers and aquifers across the state of Alabama in the southeast of the United States. By integrating dynamic data such as streamflow and groundwater levels with static catchment attributes, the machine learning model identifies primary drivers of nitrate fluctuations, offering detailed insights into the complex interactions affecting multi-year nitrate concentrations in natural aquatic systems. In addition, a novel LSTM-based approach utilizes synthetic surface water nitrate data to predict groundwater nitrate levels, helping to address monitoring gaps in aquifers connected to these rivers. This method reveals potential correlations between surface water and groundwater nitrate dynamics, which is particularly meaningful given the lack of water quality observations in many aquifers. Field applications further show that, while the LSTM model effectively captures seasonal trends, limitations in representing extreme nitrate events suggest areas for further refinement. These findings contribute to data-driven water quality management, enhancing understanding of nitrate behavior in interconnected water systems.

Released February 27, 2025 09:10 EST

2025, Seismica (4)

Alexander R. Blanchette, Simon L. Klemperer, Walter D. Mooney, Turki A. Sehli

Harrat Lunayyir is a volcanic field in Saudi Arabia that experienced a Mw~5.4 earthquake driven by an upper-crustal dike intrusion in May 2009. This volcanic field has exhibited numerous forms of volcanic seismicity both prior to and since the 2009 dike intrusion. Significantly, earthquakes within the lithospheric mantle and, rarely, the lower crust are present in the two-decade long seismicity catalog of Harrat Lunayyir. Here we analyze 24 years of volcanic seismicity at Harrat Lunayyir from 1998 to 2022. We find that: 1) precursory seismicity began at least eight years prior to the 2009 event, with a particularly notable seismic episode one year prior; 2) lithospheric mantle seismicity is highly localized in space and in time, largely occurring in discrete sequences lasting on the order of a few hours to a few days; 3) one seismic sequence clearly migrates upward from the lithospheric mantle to the upper crust, including seismicity within the nominally ductile lower crust; 4) crustal seismicity has been slowly declining over time; and 5) lithospheric-mantle seismicity does not show any apparent decline with time. From these observations we infer that the seismicity is driven by magmatic fluids or volatiles, and seismic monitoring of this volcanic field should continue into the future.

Released February 27, 2025 09:07 EST

2025, Environmental Science & Technology (59) 4482-4492

Eric Sjostedt, Richard Rushforth, Vincent Tidwell, Melissa A. Harris, Ryan McManamay, Landon Marston

Thermoelectric power generation accounts for over 41% of total U.S. freshwater withdrawals, making understanding the determinants of power plants’ water withdrawals (WW) and consumption (WC) critical for reducing the sector’s reliance on increasingly scarce water resources. However, reported data inconsistencies and incomplete analysis of potential determinants of thermoelectric water use hinder such understanding. We address these challenges by introducing a novel data filtering method and a more complete assessment of water use determinants. First, we applied a power-cooling ratio as an operations-based data filter that removed operationally implausible records while retaining more original data, outperforming previous statistical filtering methods. Second, we found that different water use reporting methods (WURMs) provided statistically significantly different WW and WC values, revealing the importance of this previously unrecognized feature in reported water use records. Third, our data-driven approach showed that traditionally emphasized features─such as cooling technology and gross generation─are of primary importance but can be surpassed by other, often overlooked, features when modeling WW or WC individually. The plant configuration, cooling technology, and gross generation were the most important features of WW, whereas WURM, cooling technology, and reporting month were the most important for WC. These findings can improve thermoelectric power plant management, water use reporting accuracy, and water use modeling.

Released February 27, 2025 08:49 EST

2025, Estuaries and Coasts (48)

Adam Pope, Russell Perry, Dalton Hance, Rebecca A. Buchanan

Greater understanding of the survival, travel time, and spatial distribution of juvenile salmonids among migration routes between their natal streams and the ocean is critical to the recovery of these threatened species. In the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta), a highly modified estuary in central California, USA, there is a critical need to evaluate how water management (e.g., water pumping) and environmental factors (e.g., water flow) impact these populations. While management actions can affect some environmental variables in the Delta, only recently have studies begun to uncover associations between these variables and key demographic parameters. In this study, we examine the effects of freshwater flows, water exports, tidal environment, and a temporary barrier on juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) survival, travel times, and migration routing using a multiyear acoustic telemetry dataset and recent advancements in Bayesian multistate mark-recapture modeling. We found that no single covariate explained variation in juvenile steelhead population dynamics across the entire Delta, but that separate regions within the Delta showed association with specific environmental factors.

Released February 26, 2025 09:24 EST

2025, Ecological Monographs (95)

Daniel A. Grear, Michael J. Adams, Adam R. Backlin, William Barichivich, Adrianne Brand, Gary M. Bucciarelli, Daniel L. Calhoun, Tara Chestnut, Jon D Davenport, Andrew E Dietrich, Graziella V. DiRenzo, Robert N. Fisher, Brad Glorioso, Evan H. Campbell Grant, Brian J. Halstead, Marc P Hayes, Blake R. Hossack, Morgan Kain, Patrick M. Kleeman, Jeffrey M. Lorch, Brome McCreary, David A.W. Miller, Brittany A. Mosher, Erin L. Muths, Christopher Pearl, Charles H. Robinson, Mark Roth, Jennifer Rowe, Walter Sadinski, Brent H. Sigafus, Iga Stasiak, Samuel Sweet, Hardin Waddle, Susan Walls, Gregory J Watkins-Colwell, Lori A Williams, Megan Winzeler

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a globally distributed fungal pathogen of amphibians that has contributed to one of the largest disease-related biodiversity losses in wildlife. Bd is regularly viewed through the lens of a global wildlife epizootic because the spread of highly virulent genetic lineages has resulted in well-documented declines and extinctions of multiple amphibian species. However, the current state of Bd occurrence, host range, host impacts, and ecological drivers remains poorly understood outside of the most negatively affected amphibian species and regions. Our objective was to describe the macroecology of Bd occurrence and infection intensity on caudates (salamanders) across the United States and to compare these patterns with better-studied anurans (frogs and toads). We collected swabs from 11,183 amphibians at 609 sites from 54 species across the United States from 2015 to 2017. We analyzed the prevalence and intensity of Bd infection jointly using a Bayesian hurdle model with covariates of site-level temperature and precipitation, as well as individual characteristics and species identification. Bd was distributed widely across sites and species sampled across the spatial extent of the conterminous United States. We found that Bd prevalence and intensity were most strongly influenced by temperature in the month preceding sampling and by differences among taxon groups. We estimated that temperature had a strong and nonlinear influence on both Bd prevalence and intensity with peak infection at intermediate temperatures and lower infection at low and high temperatures. We found Caudate hosts tended to have higher prevalence than Anuran hosts and Anuran hosts tended to have higher intensity at optimal temperatures for Bd infection. Our findings suggest that Bd has an amphibian-wide host range, temperature gradients exert a strong influence on Bd, and enzootic transmission likely encompasses a much larger spatial and species distribution than previously recognized across North America.