Released February 13, 2026 11:09 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2026-5124

Richard J. Huizinga, Benjamin C. Rivers

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near 8 bridge crossings of the Missouri River near Kansas City, Missouri, on August 8–9, 2023. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel- bed elevations for river reaches that extended about 1,550 to 1,640 feet longitudinally and generally extended laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low floodflow to nonflood conditions. These surveys provided the channel geometry and hydraulic conditions of the river at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes, which may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. The data collected from the surveys may also be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a record of low floodflow conditions in regards to the stability and integrity of the bridges with respect to bridge scour. Bathymetric data were collected around every in- channel pier. Scour holes were at most piers where bathymetry could be obtained, except for those piers on banks or surrounded by riprap. All the bridge sites in this study were surveyed and documented in previous studies.

The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces ranged from 0.07 to 4.16 feet higher in 2023 than 2019, which indicates overall deposition between the survey dates, as might be expected based purely on streamflow at the time of the survey. However, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces ranged from 1.44 feet higher to 1.88 feet lower in 2023 than 2015, which indicates a dynamic equilibrium of scour and deposition overall between those surveys, despite the lower flow conditions in 2023. Similarly, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces ranged from 3.18 feet higher to 5.19 feet lower in 2023 than 2011, which indicates a relative equilibrium between scour and deposition overall, albeit the trend was toward scour as might be expected because of the substantial flood event in 2011.

Riprap blankets and alignment to flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole for a given pier. Piers that were partially or fully surrounded by riprap blankets had scour holes that were substantially smaller (to nonexistent) compared to piers with no rock or riprap and effectively mitigated the scour holes historically observed at these piers. Several of the structures had piers that were skewed to primary approach flow. At most of the structures, the scour hole was deeper and longer on the side of the pier with impinging flow than the leeward side, with some amount of deposition on the leeward side, as typically observed at piers skewed to approach flow.

Released February 12, 2026 09:51 EST

2026, Geoenergy Science and Engineering (260)

C. Ozgen Karacan, Emil Attanasi, Sean T. Brennan, Peter D. Warwick

Released February 12, 2026 08:12 EST

2026, PLOS Water (5)

Jennifer S. Stanton, Michael J. Stephens, Matthew K. Landon, David H. Shimabukuro, Andrew G. Hunt, Justin T. Kulongoski, Isabelle M. Cozzarelli, Theron A. Sowers

Alluvial valley aquifers are important sources of water supply in many areas but effects of co-located oil and gas development on these resources have not been widely reported, especially in settings where recharge is dominated by stream infiltration. Interpreting the presence of geochemical indicators in the context of hydrology, geology, and other factors provides a more complete understanding of the relations between groundwater and sources of oil-field fluids and aids in identifying risks associated with oil and gas development. Groundwater and Salinas River water samples were collected in an alluvial valley near the San Ardo Oil Field in Monterey County, California and analyzed for a wide range of dissolved chemical, gas, and isotopic constituents to determine if oil-field fluids (water and gas from oil-producing and non-producing zones) have mixed with fresh groundwater used for supply. Hydraulic gradients, age-dating tracers, and other geochemical indicators show that recharge from the Salinas River has the potential to dilute oil-field fluids that might migrate or seep into the aquifer. Groundwater and Salinas River water collected downgradient of the San Ardo Oil Field showed little or no evidence of mixing with oil-field fluids. Some samples within the oil field contained trace amounts of hydrocarbons or elevated temperatures, indicating that any potential effects from oil-field activities are minor or have been diluted by recharge from the Salinas River. The two samples with the most geochemical evidence of potential mixing with oil-field fluids (SP-18 and GW-17) were collected west of or along the Los Lobos fault, where naturally occurring hydrocarbons are near the land surface. Those samples are also near active or inactive oil-field wells, and so anthropogenic activities and pathways cannot be ruled out as a cause of trace detections of hydrocarbons and elevated temperatures in the aquifer.

Released February 11, 2026 11:50 EST

2026, Fact Sheet 2026-3062

Christopher J. Schenk, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 10.4 billion barrels of oil and 53.3 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Santos Basin, Campos Basin, and Espírito Santo Basin provinces of Brazil.

Released February 11, 2026 08:33 EST

2026, Journal of Soils and Sediments (26)

Gregory D. Clark, Michael W. Suplee, Haylie M. Brown, Molly A. Moloney, Rodney R. Caldwell

Purpose

Eutrophication and nuisance filamentous algal blooms (i.e. Cladophora) are increasingly common occurrences throughout much of the western United States. Wildfire may be contributing to the frequency and magnitude of algal blooms through excess sediment and nutrient loading to streams and rivers. Our objective was to evaluate the effects the 2021 Woods Creek Fire had on sediment yields and phosphorus (total and bioavailable) partitioning in Camas Creek, a major tributary to the Smith River in Montana where Cladophora are now consistently reaching nuisance levels.

Methods

We collected water quality samples during snowmelt pulsing events as well as fixed interval sampling using an established U.S. Geological Survey stream gage instrumented with a continuous water quality sonde and an automatic peristaltic pump sampler. Water samples were processed for total phosphorus (TP), sediment-bound bioavailable phosphorus (S-BioP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and suspended sediment concentrations and were evaluated using linear regression and other nonparametric statistical tests. Continuous turbidity and streamflow were evaluated using hysteresis analysis to determine sediment sourcing and connectivity.

Results

We found that the Woods Creek Fire did not significantly influence TP and S-BioP in Camas Creek. However, there was a significant increase in SRP and turbidity in both postfire years (2022 and 2023). Hysteresis analysis of 91 delineated events indicated positive (clockwise) hysteresis was the dominant event pattern during the snowmelt period. This may indicate a lower hillslope to channel connectivity, with the major sediment supply originating from the channel and/or riparian areas.

Conclusion

Results from this study demonstrate the benefits of combining discrete water quality samples with high-frequency turbidity sensors to characterize postfire sediment and phosphorus dynamics. While a lack of postfire response in TP and S-BioP is contrary to many other studies, our findings highlight the role climate and catchment morphology play in attenuating a disturbance effect.

Released February 10, 2026 08:00 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5018-A

Christine D. Miller Hesed, Heather M. Yocum, editor(s)

Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems is crucial for successful grasslands management in the future. In 2020, the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers (that is, those individuals who develop grassland management plans, implement those plans on the ground, or both) at Federal, State, and Tribal agencies; nongovernmental organizations; and partnerships to help meet regional grassland management goals. This chapter presents the main findings from the review and synthesis of 183 grassland management-related documents relevant to the North Central region. Specifically, this chapter describes the methods by which grassland management-related documents were identified, reviewed, and synthesized; defines five North Central Grassland Ecoregions; provides a synthesis of regional grassland management goals and challenges; identifies information needs relevant to grassland management in a changing climate; and summarizes grassland management issues by ecoregion. 

Released February 09, 2026 12:30 EST

2026, Fact Sheet 2025-3051

Grant D. Colip

Introduction 

At the Bascom Laser Diffraction Sedimentology Laboratory, which is located in the Florence Bascom Geoscience Center at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) headquarters in Reston, Virginia, scientists use physical sedimentology and particle characterization techniques to conduct detailed sediment characterization. Scientists address research problems in collaboration with other USGS science centers, State geological surveys, commercial industry, universities, and other partners. Laboratory capabilities include laser diffractometry for quantitative particle-size analysis, portable x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis for determining elemental abundances in rock or sediment samples, petrographic analysis of geologic media, and mechanical sieve analysis. These methods are used to analyze soil and sediment core material from terrestrial, marine, and lacustrine environments, surface sediments from coastal regions, and calcareous materials. Work done by the laboratory supports geologic mapping, resource assessments, land change studies, and geohazard analyses.

Released February 09, 2026 07:57 EST

2026, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Amanda L. Hughes, Joaquín A. Cortès, Dave McGarvie, Richard J. Moscati, Valerie Olive

In this work we revisit Þingmúli volcano (Þ = Th), a classic locality known as an example of a complete tholeiitic differentiation. Þingmúli is a ~ 9.5 Ma extinct central volcano located in the East Fjords of Iceland, in which the whole compositional spectrum from basalt to rhyolites have erupted. These volcanic products have been previously considered as petrogenetically related by an ideal fractionation trend, regardless any temporal relationship or volumetric considerations.

Here we report new whole-rock geochemistry, mineral chemistry, isotope analyses, estimation of residence times of the different eruptive deposits, and an update of the original petrogenetic model. Our results highlight that an enriched source, likely spinel lherzolites, generated transitional-alkaline basaltic melts after 15–20% of partial melting at depths of 40–45 km. Many of these basaltic melts erupted at various stages of the volcano's history, while others remained longer in the volcanic plumbing system. These evolved by fractional crystallisation into basaltic andesite magmas with a residence time of ~5 years based on the crystal size distribution of the plagioclase population. Isotopic differences between the basalts/basaltic andesites (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ~ 0.7034; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ~ 0.51315) and the erupted rhyolites (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ~ 0.7037; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ~ 0.51304) indicate that the latter are not petrogenetically related to the former. Therefore, instead of a fractional crystallisation mechanism to generate the rhyolites, we propose the partial melting of ignimbrite layers located beneath the volcano. The broad range of trace element concentrations in andesites and dacites and their different isotopic values compared to the basalts strongly suggest that these magmas have been generated by magma mixing between basaltic and rhyolitic melts, similar to modern day Icelandic volcanoes such as Hekla. These results highlight the need to revisit previously studied Icelandic classic localities and reassess their traditionally proposed petrogenetic models.

Released February 08, 2026 07:49 EST

2026, Global Sustainability (9)

Daniel Ospina, Paula Mirazo, Richard P. Allan, Smriti Basnett, Ana Bastos, Nishan Bhattarai, Wendy Broadgate, Derik J. Broekhoff, Mercedes Bustamante, Deliang Chen, Yeonju Choi, Peter Cox, Luiz A. Domeignoz-Horta, Krislie Ebi, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Helge F. Goessling, Nicolas Gruber, Qingyou He, Sophie R. Hebden, Nadja Hedrich, Adrian Heilemann, Marina Hirota, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gustaf Hugelius, Santiago Izquierdo-Tort, Sirkku Juhola, Fumiko Kasuga, Piyu Ke, Douglas I. Kelley, Şiir Kilkiș, Maximilian Kotz, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, William F. Lamb, Shih-Yu Lee, Junguo Liu, Cara N. Maesano, Maria A. Martin, Guilherme G. Mazzochini, Christopher J. Merchant, Akira S. Mori, Jennifer Morris, Åsa Persson, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Benedict S. Probst, Justine Ramage, Estelle Razanatsoa, Aaron Redman, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, Sophie Ruehr, Sadie J. Ryan, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Peter Schlosser, William A. Scott, Jan C. Semenza, Hansjörg Seybold, Drew T. Shindell, Giles B. Sioen, Kathryn E. Smith, Youba Sokona, Annika H. Stechemesser, Thomas F. Stocker, Sophie H.L. Su, Djiby Thiam, Gregory Trencher, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lila Warszawski, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Henry Wu, Shupeng Zhu

Interdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1) the record-warmth of 2023/2024 and the elevated Earth energy imbalance; (2) acceleration of ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves; (3) northern land carbon sinks under strain; (4) reinforcing feedback between biodiversity loss and climate change; (5) accelerated depletion of groundwater; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) global income losses and labour productivity declines; (8) strategic scaling of CDR; (9) integrity challenges in carbon credit markets and emerging responses; and (10) effective policy mixes for emissions reductions. The insights have been written to be accessible to researchers from different fields, serving as entry-points to specific topics, as well as providing an overview of the evolving landscape of climate change research. In the final section, the insights are used to develop overarching policy-relevant messages. This paper provides the basis for a science-policy report that was shared with all Party delegations ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Released February 07, 2026 08:37 EST

2026, Scientific Reports (16)

Matthew S. Varonka, Aaron M. Jubb, Bonnie McDevitt, Jenna L. Shelton, Elliott P. Barnhart, Denise M. Akob, Isabelle M. Cozzarelli

Use of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the petroleum industry could be a cause for concern due to the large volumes of produced water (PW) generated during oil and gas extraction, the reuse of these wastes in water-stressed regions, and adverse health outcomes related to PFAS exposures. However, PW PFAS characterization is nearly absent in the literature, and hydraulic fracturing (HF) chemical disclosures often omit the identities of additives as proprietary. Here we evaluate PFAS in PW samples from three petroleum wells in the Denver Basin during their first year of production. Total concentrations of targeted PFAS (Σ₄₀PFAS) were < 35 ng/L in PW samples, with short-chain PFAS like perfluorobutanoic acid persisting throughout the sampled duration. Analysis of freshwater inputs for hydraulic fracturing (Σ₄₀PFAS ~ 113 ng/L) and mixed fracture fluid (Σ₄₀PFAS ~ 69 ng/L) indicated much of the targeted PFAS content was derived from the input water, and not from HF additives, however samples subjected to oxidation indicated the presence of PFAS precursors that would not be detected by targeted analysis. This study highlights that while PFAS content is low in the studied PWs, the potential for redistribution of PFAS in the environment may be a consideration for reuse applications.

Released February 06, 2026 11:55 EST

2026, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026

U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction 

Each mineral commodity chapter of the 2026 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production, reserves, and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2025 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses.

Abbreviations and units of measure and definitions of selected terms used in the report are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Reserves and resources information is in Appendix C, which includes “Part A—Resource and Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is in Appendix D.

The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the 2026 MCS are welcomed.

Released February 06, 2026 09:07 EST

2026, Wind Energy (29)

Joseph Rand, Louisa Kramer, Ben Hoen, James Diffendorfer, Christopher Garrity

A growing number of wind turbines (WTs) across the globe are now reaching or exceeding their expected service lifetime; WT decommissioning is on the rise. Accordingly, questions pertaining to WT end-of-life have risen in importance in policy and practice. Yet, research on the various factors relating to WT decommissioning is relatively sparse. Moreover, the key assumptions underpinning that prior research (e.g., the lifespan of WTs, characteristics of WTs being decommissioned, and whether the site is repowered with new WTs) have never been empirically tested across a large set of decommissioned WTs. Leveraging a uniquely comprehensive and spatially explicit dataset of decommissioned WTs in the United States, this research analyzes spatial, technological, and temporal trends in WT decommissioning and develops a novel predictive model for WT decommissioning. Our analysis pinpoints more than 12,400 WTs that have been fully decommissioned in the United States., the majority of which have been relatively old (> 30 years) and small (< 200 kW). While a WT's age alone is a good predictor of the likelihood of decommissioning, other factors such as the size of the WT and recent performance are also important and significant predictors. Most sites where decommissioning has occurred have seen subsequent repowering, with repowered plants featuring substantially fewer WTs (−86 on average) and higher rated plant capacity (+62 MW on average). Many existing WTs in the U.S. are approaching the end of their expected life with roughly 7500 being 20 or more years old. Findings can help policymakers and stakeholders begin preparing for this potential wave of future decommissioning and repowering.

Released February 06, 2026 08:20 EST

2026, Data Science in Science (5)

Emil Attanasi, Bonnie McDevitt, Philip A. Freeman, Timothy Coburn

Recently, the demand for battery-grade lithium has substantially increased, largely due to electrification of the transportation sector. The search for new lithium sources has turned to produced waters (frequently brines), a large-volume wastewater by-product of oil and gas extraction. Geochemical analysis indicates the presence of varying concentrations of lithium from produced water samples collected across the United States and represented in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Produced Water Geochemical Database, as well as mixtures of Marcellus Shale produced water included in the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s Oil and Gas Well Waste Reports. We first examined whether the geochemical signature of the lithium-bearing produced waters is sufficiently distinct so that machine learning (ML) can be used to correctly classify samples to the formation of origin. The produced water sample data used to assess classification accuracy were from the Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale and Point Pleasant Formation (Utica), and Smackover Formation oil and gas wells. Further, we evaluated the potential for ML to accurately classify Marcellus Shale produced water spatially (i.e., northeast versus southwest Pennsylvania). We then investigated whether ML algorithms applied to a suite of geochemical concentration data (i.e. Ba, Br, Cl, K, Mg, Sr) may be used to predict the lithium concentration of an unknown sample. Finally, we applied an estimated economic lithium grade cutoff of 150 milligrams per liter (mg/l) and assessed the utility of ML to predict whether a produced water sample would fall above or below the grade cutoff based on the suite of geochemical parameters. Four machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT), Extreme Boosting (XGBoost), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) were assessed. This study successfully demonstrates that all four machine learning methods can precisely and accurately estimate lithium concentrations and geologic formation classification. The products of this study contribute to the growing body of knowledge aimed at expanding the lithium resource base within the United States.

Released February 06, 2026 08:03 EST

2026, Nature Ecology and Evolution

Soroor Rahmanian, Nico Eisenhauer, Yuanyuan Huang, Martin Hejda, Petr Pyšek, Hannes Feilhauer, David J. Eldridge, Nicholas Gross, Yoann Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Hugo Saiz, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Miguel Berdugo, Victoria Ochoa, Beatriz Gozalo, Sergio Asensio, Emilio Guirado, Enrique Valencia, Miguel García-Gómez, Juan J. Gaitán, Betty J. Mendoza, César Plaza, Paloma Díaz-Martínez, Jaime Martínez-Valderrama, Mehdi Abedi, Negar Ahmadian, Rodrigo J. Ahumada, Fateh Amghar, Thiago Araújo, Antonio I. Arroyo, Farah Ben Salem, Niels Blaum, Enkhjargal Boldbat, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Matthew A. Bowker, Liesbeth van den Brink, Chongfeng Bu, Rafaella Canessa, Andrea P. Castillo-Monroy, Helena Castro, Patricio Castro-Quezada, Ghassen Chaieb, Roukaya Chibani, Abel A. Conceição, Yvonne C. Davila, Balázs Deák, David A. Donoso, Andrew David Dougill, Carlos Iván Espinosa, Alex Fajardo, Mohammad Farzam, Daniela Ferrante, Jorgelina Franzese, Lauchlan H. Fraser, Erika L. Geiger, Sofia Laura Gonzalez, Elizabeth Gusman Montalván, Robert Hering, Eugene Marais, Rosa Mary Hernández, Sandra Daniela Hernández-Valdez, Norbert Hölzel, Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, Oswaldo Jadán, Anke Jentsch, Liana Kindermann, Melanie Köbel, Peter C. le Roux, Cintia V. Leder, Xinhao Li, Pierre Liancourt, Anja Linstädter, Jushan Liu, Michelle A. Louw, Gillian Maggs-Kölling, Thulani P. Makhalanyane, Oumarou Malam Issa, Antonio J. Manzaneda, Pierre Margerie, Raphaël Martin, Mitchel P. McClaran, João Vitor S. Messeder, Juan P. Mora, Gerardo Moreno, Seth M. Munson, Girish R. Nair, Alice Nunes, Gabriel Oliva, Salza Palpurina, Guadalupe Peter, Yolanda Pueyo, Emiliano Quiroga, Sasha C. Reed, Pedro J. Rey, Alexandra Rodríguez, Victor Rolo, Jan C. Ruppert, Ayman Salah, Shlomo Sarig, Brajesh K. Singh, Anthony M. Swemmer, Alberto L. Teixido, Andrew D. Thomas, Katja Tielbörger, Samantha K. Travers, Orsolya Valkó, Wanyoike Wamiti, Deli Wang, Lixin Wang, Glenda M. Wardle, Peter Wolff, Laura Yahdjian, Gastón R. Oñatibia, Reza Yari, Eli Zaady, Yuanming Zhang, Xiaobing Zhou, Fernando T. Maestre

Drivers of non-native plant success in drylands are poorly understood. Here we identify functional differences between dryland native and non-native perennial plants and assess how biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors shape the success of the latter. On the basis of plant community and functional trait data from 98 sites across 25 countries, we report a total of 41 non-native plant species at 31 sites. Non-natives tend towards faster growth strategies than natives. Non-native plant richness is higher at sites with greater grazing pressure and under environmental conditions associated with higher soil fertility, decomposition and fungal richness—conditions that tend to occur in less arid regions—and lower where native plant and herbivore richness are greater. Non-native plant cover correlates positively with grazing pressure and negatively with native plant richness. Taken together, our results suggest that non-native plant success in drylands is facilitated when high grazing pressure coincides with elevated resource availability. Such context-dependence of non-native plant success and linkages with native plant and herbivore diversity highlight the need for managing grazing and conserving biodiversity across the world’s drylands.

Released February 05, 2026 08:41 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5104

Daniel M. Wagner, David E. Ladd

In 2024, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tennessee Department of Transportation, updated the methods for predicting the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations on streams in urban areas in Tennessee. The study area included 136 streamgages in urban areas in Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina that had at least 10 percent developed imperviousness in their basins as indicated by data from the 2011 National Land Cover Database. Regression equations were developed to predict streamflows corresponding to the 50-​, 20-​, 10-​, 4-​, 2-​, 1-​, 0.5-​, and 0.2-​percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) and were incorporated into the StreamStats application. In generalized least-​squares regression, the base-​10 logarithm of drainage area, the percentages of the streamgage basins in developed land use, and the percentages of the streamgage basins in the Piedmont and Ridge and Valley Level 3 ecoregions were statistically significant in explaining the variability in annual peak streamflows in the study area. Drainage areas ranged from 0.164 to 93.4 square miles, the percentage of the streamgage basins in developed land use ranged from 26 to 100 percent, and the percentage of the streamgage basins in Piedmont and Ridge and Valley Level 3 ecoregions ranged from 0 to 100 percent. Pseudo R-​squared values for the regression equations ranged from 0.86, or 86 percent, for the 50-​ and 20-​percent AEPs (2-​ and 5-​year floods) to 0.71, or 71 percent, for the 0.2-​percent AEP (500-​year flood). The average variance of prediction (in log base-​10 units) ranged from 0.023 for the 20-​ and 10-​percent AEPs to 0.05 for the 0.2-​percent AEP. The average variance of prediction can be reported as a percentage of the predicted value, known as the standard error of prediction, which ranged from 35.8 percent for the 20-​percent AEP (5-​year flood) to 55.4 percent for the 0.2-​percent AEP (500-​year flood). Methods are presented for estimating annual peak streamflows for gaged locations, ungaged locations on gaged streams, and locations on ungaged streams.

Released February 05, 2026 07:57 EST

2026, Hydrological Processes (40)

Emily C. Palmquist, Pamela Nagler, Kiona Ogle, Claudia DiMartini, Jeffrey R. Kennedy, Joel B. Sankey

Assessing riparian ecosystem water use, particularly transpiration from vegetation and evaporation from soils (‘plant water use’, hereafter), is key to developing sound water management approaches. In western North America, a multidecadal drought is reducing water availability and increasing the use of detailed water budgets. Questions related to both removal of vegetation for water salvage and budgeting water to maintain valuable riparian areas have led to a wealth of studies on riparian plant water use across dryland river systems in North America. Towards evaluating broad patterns in riparian plant water use, we synthesise results from over two decades of research, with the goal of informing water management policies and planning. This study asks: (1) Do some riparian plant communities exhibit lower plant water use than others? (2) Do riparian plant communities have higher water use under hotter climates? (3) Can statistical models based on existing data, plant communities and climate data be used to predict water use for unmeasured locations? Using hierarchical Bayesian models to synthesise data on annual and daily-scale plant water use, we show that marshes, cottonwood-willow stands and tamarisk not impacted by biocontrol use larger amounts of water at the annual scale than other vegetation communities. All plant communities have higher annual water use in hotter climates, which is likely related to a longer growing season and higher evaporative demand. Statistical models based on existing water-use data, plant communities and climate provide bounds on plant water use that can be applied to unmeasured locations and used to evaluate the effects of plant community change on water use. This synthesis produces the most complete summary of riparian plant water use in North American drylands to date and provides water use predictions across different climate and community scenarios that can be used for current and future conditions.

Released February 04, 2026 15:25 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5112

Chad J. Ostheimer, Legna M. Torres-Garcia, Julieta M. Gomez-Fragoso

Digital flood- inundation maps for a 2.7- mile reach of Río Grande De Loíza in Caguas, Puerto Rico, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey. Water- surface profiles were computed for the stream reach by using a one- dimensional, steady- state, step- backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current (2025) stage- streamflow relation (rating curve) for the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 50055000, Río Grande De Loíza, Puerto Rico. The resulting hydraulic model was then used to compute 16 water- surface profiles for water levels (flood stages) ranging from 19.00 to 34.00 feet at the streamgage; these flood stages range from “moderate flood stage” to above “major flood stage” as defined by the National Weather Service. The 34.00- foot stage exceeds the historical maximum peak stage of 33.20 feet, recorded at the streamgage in 1945. The simulated water- surface profiles were used in combination with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data to map the inundated areas associated with each flood profile.

The flood- inundation maps and the supporting hydraulic model produced by this study can be used by emergency managers and local officials to assess flood- mitigation strategies and to define flood- hazard areas to help protect life and property, to coordinate flood- response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and to aid post- flood recovery efforts.

Released February 04, 2026 09:17 EST

2026, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Vanessa R. von Biela, Amy M. Regish, Stephen D. McCormick, Joseph Spaeder, Kevin Whitworth, Justin Leon, Daniel Gillikin, Zachary Liller, Renae Ivanoff, Jenefer Bell, Sean D. Larson, Michael P. Carey, Christian E. Zimmerman

Chinook salmon population declines span their geographic range with climate hypothesized as a major driver. Concerns of warming freshwater temperatures in their northern range gained urgency during 2019 when a heatwave coincided with premature mortality. This study examined heat stress during the 2019 heatwave compared to subsequent years and described water temperatures in western Alaska to understand the degree to which freshwater temperatures may be a stressor. Heat stress was prevalent among Chinook salmon captured in the 2019 heatwave (Kuskokwim tributaries: 90% in Kwethluk and 63% Takotna river), and variable in subsequent years (∼8% to 60% across Kuskokwim tributaries and Norton Sound rivers). A review of water temperature data indicated that potentially stressful temperatures (≥18 °C) were most common and prolonged in the Yukon River, moderately common and prolonged in the Kuskokwim River, and relatively rare in the Norton Sound region. Water temperatures in 2019 broke several records for overall maximum and frequency of temperatures ≥ 18 °C. Migration water temperatures and heat stress in northern Pacific salmon habitats vary more widely than previously recognized (up to 25 °C).

Released February 04, 2026 09:07 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5098

Darwin J. Ockerman, Namjeong Choi

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Brownsville, Texas, configured and calibrated a set of hydrologic models for a 217-square-mile study area in Cameron County in south Texas during 2022–23. The models were used for estimating runoff and quantities of water diverted from the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte (hereinafter referred to as the “Rio Grande”) to maintain water-surface elevations in the canals and resacas (former distributary channels cut off from the main channel of the Rio Grande). Resacas provide habitat to aquatic species and help reduce the effects of flooding.

Because of the large size of the study area and diversity of hydrologic conditions, the study area was divided into 11 watersheds, and separate hydrologic models were developed for 9 of the watersheds. Six of the nine modeled watersheds are drained mostly by canals (canal watersheds), and three of the modeled watersheds drain to resacas (resaca watersheds). The Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN was selected for modeling the study area watersheds because it is flexible in simulating a wide variety of watershed conditions.

The models were calibrated with streamflow data collected during 2022–23. The calibrated models were used to simulate water budgets (streamflow, evapotranspiration, water-storage volumes, and water diversions and withdrawals) during 2022–23. Model simulations showed that the resaca watersheds required more diversions from the Rio Grande and released less runoff than did the canal watersheds. Management practices maintaining resaca water levels constrained their runoff.

Released February 04, 2026 08:29 EST

2026, Quaternary Research

John R. "Jack" Wood, Shannon A. Mahan, Amy E. East, Eric Leland Bilderback, Emma Taylor Krolczyk, Brian A. Rasmussen, Karina S. Zyatitsky, Leticia (Contractor) Hallas

Understanding the local to regional history of extreme events such as debris flows and floods provides context to plan for and mitigate these hazards to life, property, and infrastructure. The Klamath Mountains of northwestern California have experienced both debris flows and devastating wildfires. Whiskeytown National Recreation Area (WHIS) is at the heart of this range and has a wealth of debris flow–related landforms. Gaining an understanding of prehistoric flows and their relationship with fire or other potential triggers can help mitigate future problems. Optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon analyses from sediment and entrained organics in undisturbed facies, including beneath partially buried boulders, establishes a chronology of paleo-events in WHIS. The levee deposits indicate a repetition of debris flows during the latest Holocene, every 125–150 years, since 850 yr. Larger flows occurred, with a record elucidated from debris-flow deposits along Clear Creek, with Middle Holocene ages, ca. 2600 to 5500 yr, most of which have sufficient concentrations of charcoal to indicate origins as postfire debris flows. Deposits at higher elevations show events from the latest Pleistocene ca. 13,000 yr. This geochronology indicates that these are not singular events but are relatively common and inherent to the geomorphic processes shaping this landscape.

Released February 04, 2026 08:23 EST

2026, Journal of the American Water Resources Association (62)

Michael N. Fienen, Andrew J. Long, Katherine H. Markovich, Adel E. Haj, Matthew Irwin Barker

History matching of large hydrologic models is challenging due to data sparsity and non-unique process combinations (and associated parameters) that can produce similar model predictions. We develop an ensemble-based history matching (and uncertainty quantification) approach using an iterative ensemble smoother (iES) method for three cutouts of the National Hydrologic Model (NHM) and qualitatively compare the results and performance to the stepwise history matching approach. In the latter approach, subsets of parameters and observations were sequentially calibrated to a diverse range of observations to mitigate non-uniqueness and local minima. In iES, localization simulates the same causal connections between parameters and observations without the need (and computational cost) of sequential history matching steps. iES uses a weighted sum-of-squared-errors objective function which allows differential weighting of multiple data sources. Formal adoption of range observation also pushes results to within ranges of observation values rather than discrete values. Overall, the ensemble approach performs similarly to the stepwise approach. Both approaches performed poorly for the cutout representing a snowmelt-dominated watershed, indicating a structural issue in the process representation of the model. The main advantage of iES is quantification of uncertainty in both the history matching and the predictions of interest.

Released February 04, 2026 08:07 EST

2026, FEBS Letters

Cheyenne R. Smith, Laura Burattin, Nuria Ruiz Iglesias, Roisin Sullivan, Charles D. Rice, Helmut Segner, Lluis Tort

Understanding how environmental changes affect the health of organisms and ecosystems is complex, but recent interdisciplinary advances and the recognition of immune function as a dynamic mediator offer exciting progress. Environmental immunotoxicology in teleost fishes is evolving beyond cataloguing stressors towards a mechanistic, integrative framework that leverages omics, in vivo tracking and cross-disciplinary modelling. However, knowledge gaps in immune mechanisms, toxicokinetics and multi-stressor interactions remain. The present work highlights these gaps, advocating for immune function as both a mechanistic lens and an integrative health indicator. Such a framework can improve predictive risk assessments, management strategies and our understanding of contaminant effects on resilience, disease susceptibility and population viability. While challenges remain, the field is poised for significant growth through collaborative innovation and advancing technology.

Released February 03, 2026 07:54 EST

2026, Animal Microbiome (8)

Sergei V. Drovetski, Brian P. Bourke, Michelle L. Hladik, Carolina F. Ferreira, Koray Ergunay, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Dana W. Kolpin, Gary Voelker

Although a few studies have focused on avian gut virome variation in response to environmental stressors, none have assessed virome in relation to the production of chemically intensive crop-based agriculture that alters food resources and detrimentally affects various aspects of avian health and fitness. In this study, we used shotgun metatranscriptomics to assess whether exposure to cotton (Gossypium spp.) production had a deleterious effect on the ileal virome of sedentary northern mockingbirds (Mimus polyglottos) sampled from two cotton-producing areas (16 birds in total) and one uncultivated area (7 birds) in Texas, USA. We recovered 43 viruses representing 13 virus families, which included two viruses that appear to be potential vertebrate pathogens. Individual sample richness varied from 25 to 33 viruses. Both virome richness (Adj. r² = 0.247, F_{(2, 20)} = 4.615, P = 0.022) and composition (r² = 0.370, F_{(2, 20)} = 5.883, P = 0.001) differed among three sampling regions. Cotton production was associated with the increase of virome richness (Adj. r² = 0.283, df = 22, P = 0.005). Pesticide occurrence data collected using silicone bands at the three sites suggest that virome compositional changes are not only associated with total pesticide exposure but are also particularly sensitive to the pesticide combinations detected at each location.

Released February 02, 2026 08:37 EST

2026, Earth System Science Data (18) 779-800

Benjamin Page, Christopher J. Crawford, Saeed Arab, Gail Schmidt, Christopher Barnes, Danika F. Wellington

In April 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center introduced a Level 2 provisional Aquatic Reflectance (AR) product for the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), marking the initial phase in developing a standardized global product for Landsat-derived surface water measurements. The goal of USGS EROS aquatic product research and development is to prepare for an operational processing architecture for Landsat Collection 3 in the late 2020s that will enable use of quality-controlled data for emerging Landsat aquatic science applications. To achieve this, we released a subset of the Landsat 8/9 provisional AR products (Crawford et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.5066/P14MBBRM) and examined its general performance through the Science Algorithms to Operations (SATO) framework alongside quantitative assessment using community made inland water data records (GLObal Reflectance community dataset for Imaging and optical sensing of Aquatic environments, GLORIA) and radiometric coastal validation platforms (NASA’s Ocean Color component of the Aerosol Robotic Network, AERONET-OC). Variability within the validation datasets indicate that the performance of the Landsat 8/9 provisional AR retrieval is highly context-dependent; errors are minimal in optically simple waters (e.g., clear to moderately turbid coastal waters) but increase considerably in optically complex waters where factors such as elevated levels of turbidity, chlorophyll (Chl a) concentrations, or colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) dominate the water column. Additionally, this paper examines key algorithmic considerations for atmospheric correction, highlighting factors that influence accuracy, scalability, and computational efficiency necessary for collection processing in the operational Landsat Product Generation System (LPGS). This paper is intended to communicate with aquatic scientists, satellite oceanographers, and the broader Earth observation community on the origins, requirements, challenges, successes, and future objectives for operationalizing global AR data products for Landsat satellite missions.

Released February 02, 2026 08:05 EST

2026, Ecosphere (17)

Calvin A. Farris, Ellis Q. Margolis, Jose Iniguez, D.A. Falk, K. Gerow, C.H. Baisan, C.D. Allen, T.W. Swetnam

Climate change, expanding human ignitions, and increased fuels from fire exclusion are driving increases in area burned and fire severity in dry conifer forests of the western United States. Increasing area burned is occurring against the backdrop of a large fire deficit caused by over a century of fire exclusion. A key land management question is whether historically frequent fire regimes can be restored. Accurate estimates of historical annual area burned (prior to circa 1900) are necessary to evaluate modern area burned (after circa 1900), but are difficult to derive, and have rarely been calibrated or validated against modern fires, leaving their accuracy uncertain. We developed new methods to use tree-ring fire scars to reconstruct historical annual area burned and compare it to modern annual area burned. We focused on two southwestern US wilderness areas—Saguaro National Park (SAGU) and the Gila Wilderness (GILA)—that have a long history of using prescribed and managed fires. The abundant modern low- and moderate-severity fires allowed us to (1) calibrate and validate the fire-scar models against mapped fires to derive the first uncertainty estimates of reconstructed annual area burned and (2) test whether active fire management can help restore annual area burned to historical levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of 10 individual member models accurately estimated area burned of mapped modern fires with no consistent biases. Each member model had distinct strengths and assumptions that made them suitable for specific applications (e.g., the synchrony model is easily applied, and Thiessen polygons provide spatially explicit area burned estimates). The accurate reconstruction of modern area burned from relatively sparse fire-scar data at GILA suggests that dense grids may not be necessary for accurate reconstructions. Our findings reveal that despite the near absence of fire in the early 20th century, both annual and 20-year sums of area burned in recent decades are back within historical levels at GILA, and trending toward historical levels at SAGU. These results demonstrate that fire management can help restore the historically prevalent, ecologically important process of widespread, frequent, low-to-moderate-severity fire in dry conifer forests.

Released February 02, 2026 07:53 EST

2026, Journal of Earthquake Engineering (JEE)

Shaghayegh Karimzadeh, S.M. Sajad Hussaini, Daniel Caicedo, Alexandra Carvalho, Sanaz Rezaeian, Paulo B. Lourenco

Building on a previously developed bedrock dataset, this study extends the Azores Plateau ground motion simulations to include soil-amplified records and introduces a comprehensive validation framework. Soil amplification is modeled using one-dimensional soil profiles. A stochastic source-based approach is employed to generate the dataset, incorporating randomization of input-model parameters to account for the aleatory uncertainty in seismic activity. The accuracy of the dataset is verified through a comprehensive validation framework, showing that the randomization effectively captures variance and inter-period correlation observed in records. This work provides a robust dataset for advancing seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Azores Plateau.

Released February 02, 2026 07:45 EST

2026, Earth-Science Reviews (275)

Kate Andrzejewski, Julia A. McIntosh, Erik L. Gulbranson, Daniel Ibarra

Fossilized soils, or paleosols, contain soil-formed phyllosilicates whose stable isotopic compositions may be used to calculate paleotemperature and thus reconstruct ancient terrestrial environments. Though paleosols are common in the geologic record, the use of phyllosilicates as paleotemperature proxies is limited in the literature owing to difficulties with selecting optimal paleosols, isolation from non-clay minerals and organic materials, mixtures of phyllosilicates in natural samples, wide variations of chemical compositions for phyllosilicates, and limited to undefined equilibrium fractionation factors between phyllosilicates-water. Here, we address these challenges by examining and comparing methods used for sample selection, mineral isolation, pretreatments, mineral identification, conventional and developing methods for oxygen and hydrogen isotopic analyses, and determination of phyllosilicate-water equilibrium fractionation factors, concluding with recommendations for best approaches for paleotemperature estimation. Additionally, we discuss how to identify and avoid detrital phyllosilicates, the impacts of diagenesis, comparison of stable isotope and non-isotope paleosol paleotemperature proxies, and challenges and opportunities for broadly using paleosols as paleoclimate archives. With ongoing efforts to refine this multi-faceted paleotemperature approach, the stable isotope geochemistry of soil-formed phyllosilicates continues to be an invaluable proxy system, enhancing our understanding of terrestrial paleoenvironments and paleoclimate.

Released February 01, 2026 09:58 EST

2026, Ecological Applications (36)

Teagan A. Hayes, Aaron N. Johnston, L. Embere Hall, Jill Randall, Matthew Kauffman, Christopher Keefe, Kevin Monteith, Tabitha A. Graves

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Released February 01, 2026 08:48 EST

2026, Remote Sensing (18)

Selena Anne-Marie Johnson, David G. Zawada, Kimberly Yates, Connor Monroe Jenkins

Coral reefs provide immense ecosystem and economic value, supporting biodiversity, fisheries, tourism, and coastal protection worth billions annually. However, widespread degradation from thermal stress, storms, disease, and human impacts has caused significant coral cover and reef structure loss, increasing coastal vulnerability and economic risks. While coral loss is well-documented, degradation of underlying reef infrastructure and surrounding seafloor changes remain poorly understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap by quantifying seafloor elevation and volume changes across 234.2 km² of the Upper Florida Keys (UFK) reef tract using historical bathymetric and modern lidar (light detection and ranging) data collected from two periods with distinctly different disturbance regimes: 1935–2002 (frequent storms and major coral loss) and 2002–2016 (few storms and persistently low coral cover). Analysis of over 25,000 data points revealed substantial elevation and volume loss during 1935–2002 (−0.1 ± 0.8 m; 13.6 × 10⁶ m³ net loss), shifting to minimal gains by 2002–2016 (0.0 ± 0.3 m; 1.6 × 10⁶ m³ net gain). Despite this shift, benthic cover data showed continued declines in stony coral, with increases in macroalgae and octocorals, indicating that limited reef accretion persists even with reduced storm activity. Spatial analyses highlighted variable accretion and erosion patterns across habitats and subregions, underscoring the limitations of localized measurements for ecosystem-wide assessments. Our findings demonstrate the value of integrating historical and modern datasets for regional reef monitoring, establishing baselines for restoration planning, and emphasizing the need for continued high-resolution monitoring to guide adaptive management amid ongoing environmental change.

Released January 31, 2026 08:03 EST

2026, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (687)

Neil Patrick Griffis, Marieke Dechesne, Tyson Michael Smith, Mark R. Hudson, Charles M. Henderson, Roland Mundil, Mikel Shinn, Justin E. Birdwell, Laura Pianowski, Brandon Michael Lutz, Cameron Mark Mercer, Leah E. Morgan, Leland Robson Spangler

Cyclothems are defined by the repeat juxtaposition of littoral and open marine successions over short stratigraphic distances (meters to 10's of meters) and are interpreted to be driven by glacioeustatic forcing of sea level during the late Paleozoic Ice Age. The concept of cyclothems was defined in the Midcontinent region of the United States. However, correlating the Midcontinent region to other cyclic successions is difficult, which is the result of no geochronologic control for the Midcontinent biostratigraphic framework. We present the first high-resolution UPb zircon CA-ID-TIMS and feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age control for the onset of Midcontinent cyclothem deposition in the Arkoma Basin, Arkansas USA. Geochronologic control is obtained from a volcaniclastic unit preserved in the newly recovered Dare Creek #1 core. We integrate these data with biostratigraphic, lithostratigraphic and trace element analyses to investigate the timing, stratigraphic and geochemical response to late Paleozoic climate forcing. The lowermost Atoka Formation is associated with the onset of five high frequency transgressive-regressive cycles, which are defined by nearshore sandstones juxtaposed on top of offshore marine mudstones and are associated with changes in salinity and redox conditions. The Trace Creek Member of the lower Atoka Formation hosts a thick, organic-rich black shale, which defines the last and maximum transgression of the lower Atoka Formation in the Arkoma Basin, in the latest Bashkirian. Base-level records from time equivalent stratigraphic successions from Arrow Canyon, Nevada, U.S.A. and the Donets Basin, Ukraine also record a maximum transgression in the latest Bashkirian. The synchroneity of maximum flooding events from multiple basins which span the low latitudes in the latest Bashkirian support that cyclothem deposition was controlled by allostratigraphic forcing mechanisms, likely glacioeustatic forcing resulting from dynamic glaciation in high-latitude Gondwana.

Released January 30, 2026 08:43 EST

2026, Biogeosciences (23) 851-865

Mona Huyzentruyt, Maarten Wens, Gregory S. Fivash, David Walters, Steven Bouillon, Joel Carr, Glenn Guntenspergen, Matt L. Kirwan, Stijn Temmerman

Tidal marshes are considered one of the world's most efficient ecosystems for belowground organic carbon sequestration and hence climate mitigation. Marsh systems are however also vulnerable to degradation due to climate-induced sea level rise, whereby marsh vegetation conversion to open water often follows distinct spatial patterns: levees (i.e. marsh zones < 10 m from tidal creeks) show lower vulnerability of vegetation conversion to open water than basins (i.e. interior marsh zones > 30 m from creeks). Here, we use sediment cores to investigate spatial variations in organic carbon accumulation rates (OCAR) in a microtidal system (Blackwater marshes, Maryland, USA): (1) across a gradient of marsh zones with increasing marsh degradation, assessed as increasing ratio of unvegetated versus vegetated marsh area and (2) by comparing levees versus basins. We show that OCAR is up to four times higher on marsh levees than in adjacent basins. The data suggest that this is caused by spatial variation in three processes: sediment accretion rate, vegetation productivity, and sediment compaction, which are all higher on levees. Additionally, OCAR was observed to increase with increasing degree of marsh degradation in response to sea level rise. We hypothesize this may be due to more soil waterlogging in more degraded marsh zones, which may decrease carbon decomposition. Our results highlight that tidal marsh levees, in a microtidal system, are among the fastest soil organic carbon sequestration systems on Earth, and that both levees and basins sustain their carbon accumulation rate along gradients of increasing marsh degradation in response to sea level rise.

Released January 29, 2026 16:30 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2026-5115

Kelli M. Palko, Cory A. Russell, Nicholas J. Pieseski

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time.

Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Released January 29, 2026 15:35 EST

2026, Ecological Applications (36)

Sarah R. Weiskopf, Toni Lyn Morelli, Tina G. Mozelewski, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Susannah B. Lerman

Ecological restoration is essential to meeting global biodiversity conservation goals. Given limited conservation budgets, deciding where to restore habitat is a key challenge for the coming decade. We developed a spatially explicit framework to optimize ecological restoration site selection by integrating land use history, species distributions, and economic costs. The framework includes the following steps: identify potential restoration area based on relevant environmental measures like land use; identify species of interest; calculate restoration benefits by modeling habitat and climate suitability and estimating reduced extinction risk associated with restoring a particular land parcel based on a modified species–area relationship; aggregate benefits across species; and compare to parcel-level land acquisition costs. We applied linear programming to maximize conservation benefit/restoration cost ratios to identify optimized restoration sites. We illustrate this approach using a case study for highly threatened grassland ecosystems in the Great Plains region of Kansas, USA. We selected five grassland animal species (greater prairie chickens [Tympanuchus cupido], lesser prairie chickens [Tympanuchus pallidicinctus], swift fox [Vulpes velox], pronghorn [Antilocapra americana], and regal fritillary [Speyeria idalia]) as indicators of restoration benefit across taxa. For the indicator species that we chose, shortgrass and mixed-grass prairies had the highest conservation benefit to cost ratio. Setting a minimum restoration threshold for each habitat type allowed us to identify high-priority tallgrass prairie sites. Despite increasing interest in ecological restoration, optimizing restoration site selection is challenging because one must consider habitat features that do not currently exist. The modeling approach described here is flexible and can be updated for different ecosystems, species, and conservation priorities. We outline potential alterations that can be made in future analyses, depending on desired restoration goals.

Released January 28, 2026 11:50 EST

2026, Fact Sheet 2026-3060

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 208 million barrels of oil and 4.1 trillion cubic feet of gas in the greater Carpathian area.

Released January 28, 2026 08:55 EST

2026, Quaternary Science Reviews (376)

Paul Henne, Susann Stolze, Natalie Kehrwald, Rebecca Lynn Brice, Craig Allen

Mountain forests and woodlands in semiarid regions of the world are threatened by climatic change and other human impacts. In the southwestern USA, climate and culturally driven changes to the structure and fire regimes of dry coniferous forests over recent centuries are well documented by tree-ring archives. However, the roles of climate and people as drivers of millennial-scale changes are less understood. We present a new record of vegetation dynamics and regional fire activity inferred from pollen, microscopic charcoal, and sediment geochemistry from Santa Fe Lake, NM (3532 m a.s.l.), the southernmost natural lake in the Rocky Mountains. Declining elemental intensities (e.g., Ti, Fe, Si) record local deglaciation after 14,000 cal yr BP followed by upslope expansion of trees indicated by increasing Pinus and Picea pollen percentages as the climate warmed during the Late Glacial. Cool, dry growing seasons probably limited the establishment of dense forests until after 12,200 cal yr BP when we hypothesize that Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine) expanded regionally (i.e., within 10–100 km) due to continued warming and a possible increase in monsoonal precipitation. Subalpine forests established near Santa Fe Lake by 10,300 cal yr BP as indicated by abundant conifer stomates and increasing Picea and Pinus aristata pollen percentages, which are highest after 5100 cal yr BP. Increasing Juniperus-type, Quercus, and Pinus edulis-type pollen record changes in vegetation belts at lower elevations after 10,300 cal yr BP. Maize pollen, an unambiguous indicator of Puebloan agriculture, first appears at 800 cal yr BP (1150 cal yr CE) and is present through 1600 cal yr CE when Spanish colonization brought cultural upheaval and population loss to local indigenous communities. Regional fire activity, inferred from microscopic charcoal influx, remained relatively constant for most of our record. However, average microscopic charcoal influx more than doubled relative to the rest of the Holocene during the last 2000 years, with the highest influx after 1550 cal yr BP (400 cal yr CE). The increased influx of microscopic charcoal coincides with archaeological evidence for dramatic regional population growth in the northern Rio Grande region and probably reflects extensive cultural burning associated with the development of an agricultural economy. Although climate was an important driver of vegetation change and fire regimes in the mountains of the southwestern USA during the Holocene, our results suggest that human impacts on regional burning during the last 2000 years far exceeded earlier climate-driven variation.

Released January 27, 2026 15:30 EST

2026, Professional Paper 1890-N

Marissa E. Mnich, Christopher D. Condit

A detailed characterization of the >3,000 square kilometer (km²) Springerville volcanic field, located on the southern tip of the Colorado Plateau in Arizona, United States, with its more than 501 volcanic units and widely distributed >420 cinder cones and lava flows, provides constraints toward an integrated petrogenetic model for the field. Large-volume effusive tholeiitic eruptions at 2–1.5 mega-annum (Ma) transitioned to more numerous, smaller volume alkali olivine basalt (AOB) events at 1.5–1.0 Ma, with increasing abundances of evolved alkalic rocks (EARs), and a final 1.0–0.3 Ma period dominated by smaller volume, more explosive alkalic eruptions.

Early large-scale melting in a relatively enriched lithospheric mantle (EM) source generated large-volume effusive tholeiitic magmas. Depths of tholeiite magma generation average about 90 kilometers (km) across the field, but depths for individual units decreased southward, consistent with lithospheric thinning toward the Colorado Plateau margin. Early and middle-stage transitional basalts, alkali olivine basalts (AOBs), and basanites originate from a progressively deeper (>100 km) region in a prevalent mantle (PREMA)-like asthenospheric source produced by increasingly smaller degrees of melting, as low as about 2 percent. The chemical signature of the basanites is consistent with small degrees of melting in a carbonated, asthenospheric source to depths of about 140 km. As heat waned, the last phase of volcanism was dominated by more explosive EARs derived at shallower lithospheric pressures but that have isotopic and trace element similarities to the deeper asthenospheric magmas. This suggests mixing between deeper basanitic and shallower tholeiitic magmas. With waning heat, eruptions became more localized along alignments, likely related to boundaries between blocks of Proterozoic crust with differing properties that affected magma ascent.

The petrogenetic patterns are consistent with a variety of processes. Basin and Range Province extension, melting, and heat-induced weakening progressively eroded the Colorado Plateau’s thicker lithosphere, giving rise to relatively high degrees of partial melting from shallower (<90 km) sources that produced the early large volumes of effusive tholeiitic magma. Possible lithosphere delamination and removal, and a resulting steep boundary step with the asthenosphere, may have given rise to mantle edge convection, resulting in the mixing of basanitic and tholeiitic magmas. With plate motion, shear-driven upwelling likely gave an eastward component to convection, affecting relative amounts of melting at the field’s western boundary and corresponding with volcanism moving eastward during times of peak vent production by eruption of alkalic lavas, giving rise to more explosive and lower volume eruptions.

Released January 27, 2026 11:56 EST

2026, Open-File Report 2025-1024

Rebecca K. Mann, Michael C. Duniway, Jo Ellen Hinck

Mining uranium from breccia-pipe deposits in the greater Grand Canyon region has occurred since the mid-1900s. However, possible ecosystem contamination with harmful levels of radionuclides may have occurred due to mining activities in the 21st century. In response, a 20-year Federal moratorium on new mining claims in the Grand Canyon watershed was initiated in 2012, to allow time to evaluate the potential effects of uranium exploration and mining on human health, wildlife, and water resources. This moratorium, nor the 2023 designation of the “Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni–Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument,” precludes operation or development of mining claims predating 2012.

Vegetation is a core ecosystem component that may be affected by uranium mining (for instance, through uptake and storage of radionuclides from the air or soil) or may act as a vector of exposure to wildlife, livestock, and humans (for instance, via their consumption of contaminated plant tissues). To provide baseline information about the plant communities associated with uranium mines in the Grand Canyon region, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed an approximately 200-meter-wide buffer surrounding four breccia-pipe deposits, each in a unique stage of mine development, and at one reference area (a livestock water tank) that underwent ground disturbance but contains no mineral deposits. We sectioned the buffer zones into 0.65–4.52 hectare plots, within which we (1) inventoried all plant species, (2) measured percent cover of plant species, plant functional groups, and ground surface types (dark cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, bedrock, rock, embedded litter, duff, plant bases, and bare soil) using line-point intercept, and (3) measured length and frequency of gaps between perennial plant canopies using canopy gap intercept. We found that plant composition at the mines and the reference area differed from one another but were all characteristic of expected regional vegetation patterns. We provide this data summary as potential baseline information for future research and management efforts.

Released January 27, 2026 08:18 EST

2026, Open-File Report 2026-1059

Md Obaidul Haque, Nahid Hasan, Ashish Shrestha, Rajagopalan Rengarajan, Mark Lubke, Daniel Steinwand, Paul Bresnahan, Jerad L. Shaw, Kathryn Ruslander, Esad Micijevic, Michael J. Choate, Cody Anderson, Jeff Clauson, Kurt Thome, Amit Angal, Raviv Levy, Jeff Miller, Leibo Ding, Cibele Teixeira Pinto

Executive Summary 

The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote- sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level.

This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 2 (April–June) of 2025. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov.

Released January 27, 2026 07:59 EST

2026, GSA Bulletin

Stephen J. Angster, Brian L. Sherrod, Jessie K. Pearl, Lydia M. Staisch, Wes Johns, Richard J. Blakely

Fault-related folds and their associated secondary faults play a critical yet often underrecognized role in accommodating strain and generating earthquakes in active fold-and-thrust belts. In the Seattle fault zone (SFZ), Washington, USA, we present new paleoseismic, geomorphic, and geophysical evidence for late Pleistocene and Holocene earthquakes on shallow, south-dipping secondary faults—the Lytle Beach and Vasa Park faults—that lie within the hanging wall of the greater SFZ and are on trend with the primary, blind Blakely Harbor fault. Our data show that these structures have ruptured independently, producing localized uplift and deformation at the surface, with the most recent event (RH2) likely occurring in the early nineteenth century. While a temporal overlap between the late Pleistocene RH1 and VP1 earthquakes raises the possibility of a ≥35 km rupture along the Blakely Harbor fault, structural and temporal evidence instead supports independent rupture on individual faults related to folding. We interpret these faults as bending-moment reverse faults that formed within a synclinal hinge zone of the main fault, reflecting mechanical and kinematic influences of the broader fault system. Combined with prior studies, our findings indicate that faulting related to folding dominates the mode of strain release within the SFZ since the late Pleistocene with more frequent earthquake recurrence (∼350 yr) over the past ∼2500 yr.

Released January 26, 2026 15:40 EST

2026, Restoration Ecology

Stella M Copeland, Jonathan D Bates, Kirk W Davies, Matthew Germino

Introduction

Restoration outcomes in cold desert ecosystems like sagebrush steppe are affected by weather variability, particularly during the spring, a critical time period for seedling establishment. Seedling emergence phenology is also highly variable among species in these ecosystems. Seed-based restoration outcomes are likely affected by the emergence timing of species in seed mixes relative to periods of favorable soil microclimate in the spring.

Objectives

This study evaluated the effects of higher spring temperatures in different periods, and species differences in seedling emergence and survival, on restoration outcomes. We also tested the indirect effects of warming treatments on outcomes via abundance of cheatgrass, a competitive, widespread invasive annual sensitive to weather variability.

Methods

We used open-sided chambers to implement early- or late-spring warming on plots seeded with a diverse set of species that differed in timing of emergence, across multiple years and variable weather conditions in sagebrush steppe, Oregon, U.S.A.

Results

Spring warming treatment effects varied with yearly weather and species emergence timing relative to the rest of the seeded species. Later-emergence timing was associated with lower emergence rates, particularly with late spring warming, and lower survival with early spring warming, but higher survival without warming or with late spring warming. Seed mix scenarios tuned to warming treatment and yearly weather outperformed early- or late-emergence timing and even proportion mixes. Early spring warming increased invasive annual grass abundance, which was associated with lower survival of seeded species.

Conclusions

Species differences and yearly precipitation affected restoration outcomes under warmer spring temperatures.

Released January 26, 2026 10:45 EST

2026, Biogeosciences (23) 751-766

Mona Huyzentruyt, Lennert Schepers, Matt L. Kirwan, Glenn Guntenspergen, Stijn Temmerman

Coastal marsh conversion into ponds, which may be triggered by sea-level rise, is considered an important driver of marsh loss and their valuable ecosystem services. Previous studies have focused on the role of wind waves in driving the expansion of interior marsh ponds, through lateral erosion of marsh edges surrounding the ponds. Here, we propose another mechanism between sea-level rise, increasing marsh inundation, and decreasing marsh soil strength (approximated here as resistance to shear and penetration stress), that further contributes to marsh erosion and pond expansion. Our field measurements in the Blackwater marshes (Maryland, USA), a microtidal marsh system with organic-rich soils, indicate that (1) an increase in tidal inundation time of the marsh surface above a certain threshold (around 50 % of the time) is associated with a substantial loss of strength of the surficial soils; and (2) this decrease in soil strength is strongly related to the amount of belowground vegetation biomass, which is also found to decrease with increasing tidal inundation at pond bottoms, where the soil has a very low strength. Our finding of decreasing marsh soil strength along a spatial gradient of increasing marsh inundation coincides with a gradient of increasing historical marsh loss by pond expansion, suggesting that feedbacks between sea-level rise, increasing marsh inundation and decreasing marsh soil strength combine to amplify marsh erosion and pond expansion.

Released January 26, 2026 08:50 EST

2026, Fact Sheet 2025-3058

Judith Z. Drexler, Jake Weltzin

Introduction 

The San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Estuary (hereafter, Bay-Delta) is the largest estuary on the West Coast of the United States. The Bay- Delta covers more than 1,600 square miles and drains a watershed of more than 75,000 square miles, which is greater than 40 percent of California. The region surrounding the Bay- Delta is home to about 10 million people, and its habitats (fig. 1) support more than 800 plant and animal species. The waterways of the Bay- Delta are the central hub of California’s extensive freshwater delivery system, supplying water to more than 27 million Californians and 4 million acres of farmland in the Central Valley.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the primary science agency of the U.S. Department of the Interior, providing a broad range of Earth, water, biological, and mapping data and expertise to inform natural resource management across the country. This fact sheet focuses on research conducted by the USGS in the Bay- Delta region, mostly within the past 5 years. The fact sheet is organized across five major themes: water flow and water quality, fish and wildlife, wetland restoration, invasive species, and hazards. In each of these areas, the USGS works closely with Federal, State, and local agencies; academia; and non- governmental organizations to provide objective, evidence-based science. The data and knowledge gained from USGS research and monitoring are publicly available and are routinely used by agencies, including the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, California Department of Water Resources, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, California State Water Resources Control Board, Delta Stewardship Council, and many additional organizations and stakeholders to inform management of the Bay- Delta region and its resources.

Released January 26, 2026 07:49 EST

2026, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Wesley A. Bickford, Kaira A. Schaefer, Spenser L. Widin, Kurt P. Kowalski

The distribution and abundance of Phragmites in the Great Lakes coastal zone has expanded in part due to its unique ventilation physiology and its ability to take advantage of changes in lake levels over the past several decades. During an extended period of low lake levels in the early 2000s, Phragmites expanded into vast shallow water areas as lake bottoms were exposed. Many of those populations were able to persist when lake levels rose several years later. Here, we investigate a management strategy, known as cut-to-drown, that takes advantage of elevated water levels to effectively control Phragmites by cutting stems underwater, thereby drowning the plant and depleting its stored resources. We tested the impacts of cut timing and frequency on the effectiveness of the cut-to-drown strategy through a multi-year manipulative field study. After two seasons of treatments, we found a 92–99 % reduction in stem density, depending on cut timing. Carbohydrate reserves in rhizomes declined 75–92 %, such that rhizome viability was reduced by 73–100 %, depending on cut timing. We found that cutting continuously (every 2–3 weeks) throughout two growing seasons was the most effective way to implement cut-to-drown but provide evidence that less frequent cutting could produce similar results. Our study provides important evidence to inform best management practices for cut-to-drown. Particularly as lake level fluctuations become more frequent and extreme in the future, cut-to-drown could serve as a useful tool for limiting Phragmites’ ability to persist in high water environments.

Released January 25, 2026 09:06 EST

2026, Groundwater

Michael N. Fienen, Aaron Pruitt, Howard W. Reeves

Regulatory agencies in humid temperate environments rely on timely evaluations of streamflow depletion and drawdown to protect aquatic ecosystems and existing water users. Numerical models offer detailed insights, but their complexity and time demands often preclude their practical use in rapid decision-making. We present pycap-dss, an open-source Python package that implements a suite of analytical solutions for estimating streamflow depletion and drawdown. The tool supports superposition of multiple wells and time-varying pumping, enabling cumulative impact assessments in situations with multiple wells and streams. The software is modular and extensible, allowing users to interchange solutions or add new analytical methods. A YAML-based configuration supports batch processing of multiple wells, and an optional AnalysisProject class facilitates integration with regulatory workflows. Rigorous unit and regression testing ensures computational reliability, and continuous integration supports ongoing development. We demonstrate deterministic examples of drawdown where multiple solutions are readily compared and streamflow depletion with multiple wells in the Central Sands region of Wisconsin. We also show the value of Monte Carlo analyses of streamflow depletion in the same Central Sands example, leveraging computational efficiency to evaluate the uncertainty of individual and cumulative streamflow depletion calculations from over 200 high-capacity wells.

Released January 24, 2026 08:46 EST

2026, Geothermics (136)

Connor P. Newman, Jeff D. Pepin

Geothermal systems are vulnerable to changes in water budget and composition, requiring science-based management. This study uses a dataset of spring water temperatures, time series of groundwater residence time tracers (tritium and carbon-14), and stable isotopes of water to understand geothermal flow in a low-temperature geothermal system in north west Colorado, United States (Steamboat Springs). The geothermal system is bisected by the Yampa River, necessitating a stream mass balance approach to quantify total discharge. Time series analysis of water temperature data provides a ranked list of features more susceptible to surficial changes, which is corroborated using time series of tritium which indicate spatially distinct patterns of mixing between modern and pre-modern groundwater. All springs contain a portion of pre-modern groundwater that is thousands to tens of thousands of years old, a period coinciding with melting of extensive Pleistocene glaciers that was likely one of the recharge sources to the geothermal system. Stream mass balance indicates that greater than 80% of the total geothermal discharge is derived from diffuse or small springs, highlighting the extensive nature of the geothermal outflow zone and the association with local geologic structures. This study provides baseline data to support management of the Steamboat Springs geothermal system and indicates the utility of these approaches in developing science-based geothermal management.

Released January 23, 2026 08:48 EST

2026, Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts

Kelly L. Smalling, Paul M. Bradley, Kristin M. Romanok, John T. Doyle, Margaret J. Eggers, Christine Martin, Elliott P. Barnhart, Picabo Binette, Eric M. Castro, Madisan Chavez, Stephanie A. Ewing, Stephanie E. Gordon, Mathew W. Fields, James L. Gray, Ashley M. Groshong, Chiachi Hwang, Leslie K. Kanagy, JoRee WClay LaFrance, Keith A. Loftin, Carrie Mae Long, R. Blaine McCleskey, Shannon M. Meppelink, Crystal L. Richards, Molly L. Schreiner, Jonathan I. Shikany, Mahelat Tesfamariam

We assessed potential exposures to a broad suite of contaminants (inorganic, organic and microbial) in culturally important surface waters from three watersheds in a northern plains Native American community (Apsáalooke [Crow Tribe of Montana]) in south-central Montana, United States, with water insecurity concerns. Inorganic (37), organic (435) and microbial (3) constituents were assessed in 12 surface water sites from the Pryor Creek (n = 2), Bighorn River (n = 2) and Little Bighorn River (n = 8) valleys. Twenty-six organics, 33 inorganics and Escherichia coli were detected. Despite relatively low concentrations in surface waters within the Crow Reservation, mixture toxicity indicated prevalent chronic ecological effects and human-health secondary contact (recreation) effects at multiple sites. Further, to address Tribal concerns over the prevalence and corresponding risks of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), we sampled water, sediment, biofilms and fish at a limited number of locations in the Little Bighorn River. Results indicated that PFAS were prevalent in fish tissues, including whole blood and filets, and to a lesser extent in biofilms, despite few detections in water and sediment samples. This is the first attempt to document environmental PFAS contamination within the reservation and the potential human-health concerns for the general population from consumption of recreational/subsistence fish. Overall, this effort provided preliminary information on the contaminant mixtures present and their potential health implications, which can support the protection of community health and culturally meaningful resources across the Crow Reservation.

Released January 23, 2026 08:36 EST

2026, GeoHealth (10)

Shams Azad, Mason O. Stahl, Melinda Erickson, Beck A. DeYoung, Craig T. Connolly, Lawrence Chillrud, Kathrin Schilling, Ana Navas-Acien, Anirban Basu, Brian Mailloux, Benjamin C. Bostick, Steven N. Chillrud

In the United States, private wells are not federally regulated, and many households do not test for Arsenic (As). Chronic exposure is linked with multiple health outcomes, and risk can change sharply over short distances and with well depth. Coarse maps or sparse sampling often miss exceedances. Most existing models operate at ∼1 km resolution and use groundwater chemistry or detailed geologic logs, which limits their use in undersampled areas where improved guidance is most needed. We overcome these limitations by developing a machine learning model for Minnesota, USA, that predicts As exposure risk using only surficial variables from remote sensing and global data sets. Variables related to surface water hydrology and geomorphology are selected based on mechanistic links that control redox conditions and As mobilization. Local training was essential, and surficial geology variables that are more sensitive to local conditions were needed to maximize model accuracy. The resulting complete model was sufficiently sensitive to generate accurate and detailed risk maps and depth profiles of As concentrations above the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level. Accuracy depended on local training data density. We identified a training data density of 0.07 wells/km² as a practical target for stable county-level performance. Maps of exceedance probabilities highlight priority areas for testing that are particularly important in rural communities that have received less sampling. These results support public health action by guiding where to install wells and where to test them, how much new sampling is needed, and where treatment outreach is most urgent.

Released January 23, 2026 07:46 EST

2026, Ecology Letters (29)

Claire Stewart Teitelbaum, Diann J. Prosser, Joshua T. Ackerman, Sakib Ahmed, A.B.M. Sarowar Alam, Kazi Zenifar Azmiri, Nyambaya Batbayar, Joël Bêty, Abigail Blake-Bradshaw, Dmitrijs Boiko, Nelleke H. Buitendijk, Jeffrey J. Buler, David Cabot, Michael L. Casazza, Bradley S. Cohen, Batmunkh Davaasuren, Sébastien Farau, Jamie Feddersen, John R. Fieberg, Wolfgang Fiedler, Peter Glazov, Larry R. Griffin, Matthieu Guillemain, Heath Hagy, Matthew J. Hardy, Cory Highway, David Hoffman, Tehan Kang, Allison Keever, Jennifer Kilburn, Andrea Kölzsch, Helmut Kruckenberg, Toni Laaksonen, Brian S. Ladman, Hansoo Lee, Siwan Lee, Josée Lefebvre, Pierre Legagneux, Hans Linssen, Jesper Madsen, Nicholas M. Masto, Scott R. McWilliams, Tori Mezebish Quinn, Carl P.J. Mitchell, Axelle Moreau, Gerhard Müskens, Scott Newman, Bart A. Nolet, Rascha J.M. Nuijten, Jay Osenkowski, Cory T. Overton, Antti Piironen, Betty Plaquin, Andrew M. Ramey, Jean Rodrigue, David Rodrigues, Kees H.T. Schreven, Yali Si, Jeffery D. Sullivan, John Takekawa, Philippe J. Thomas, Mariëlle van Toor, Jonas Waldenström, Christopher K. Williams, David W. Wolfson, Fei Xu, Ian G. Brosnan, Susan E.W. De La Cruz

Animal movements contribute to the spread of infectious diseases and are driven in part by environmental conditions. We investigated the links among the environment, animal movement, and infectious disease dynamics in waterfowl, which are among the primary wildlife hosts of avian influenza viruses. By combining telemetry data on 4606 individuals from 26 waterfowl species with data on land cover, weather, and vegetation, we found that waterfowl moved less in areas of higher land cover heterogeneity and higher human population density. Moreover, predicted waterfowl movement distances were weakly but positively correlated with distances between detections of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild waterfowl, suggesting that environmental conditions might contribute to the spread of this disease via their effects on bird movements. By considering wildlife movements alongside other drivers of infectious disease dynamics, such as livestock production and human mobility, we move closer to predicting outbreaks and informing interventions.

Released January 23, 2026 07:45 EST

2026, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

Brittany Rose Hanrahan, Matthew W. Diebel, Rebecca B. Carvin, Edward G. Dobrowolski, Matthew John Hardebeck, Andrew Jason Kowalczk, Chad A. Toussant, Matthew J. Komiskey

The Laurentian Great Lakes are a vital freshwater resource in the United States, and nonpoint source (NPS) nutrient pollution, specifically phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), from agricultural land use continues to negatively impact water quality throughout the Great Lakes basin. One focus of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), a mechanism to coordinate conservation efforts in the Great Lakes that began in 2010, is reducing NPS nutrient pollution through the implementation of conservation practices in priority watersheds (Genesee River, Fox River, Maumee River, and Saginaw River). As part of GLRI efforts, the objective of the study presented here was to evaluate the effects of conservation implementation, specifically increasing vegetative cover on fields and in primary flowpaths through perennial or cover crop planting and grassed waterways, on surface-runoff water quality at 12 agricultural fields (six paired and six unpaired) located in priority watersheds. We determined the percentage difference in mean event response variables between the periods before and after conservation implementation at individual sites, describing patterns across sites to synthesize lessons learned from these GLRI evaluations. Generally, we found that mean event flow-weighted concentration (FWC) and yield (kilograms per hectare) decreased for suspended sediment (SS) and nitrate (NO₃^–-N) across many sites. Mean event FWC and yield for total P (TP) showed mixed results across sites, while mean event FWC and yield for orthophosphate generally increased across sites. These results indicate that perennial or cover crop planting and grassed waterways effectively reduce SS and NO₃^–-N losses in surface runoff from agricultural fields, but mitigating TP and dissolved P losses remains a challenge.

Released January 22, 2026 10:11 EST

2026, Fisheries Research (294)

Greg S. Sass, Joesph T. Mrnak, Stephanie L Shaw, Zachary S. Feiner, Colin J. Dassow, Andrew L. Rypel, Holly Susan Embke

A long-held assumption in the management of exploited fisheries is that fish populations will compensate with increased recruit survival to replenish the population when adult stock size is reduced through harvest. Observations of depensatory recruitment (reduced recruit survival at low adult stock size) and critical depensatory thresholds have challenged the compensation assumption. Post et al. (2002) postulated that critical depensatory thresholds were related to fish population productivity. Walleye Sander vitreus are a culturally, economically, and recreationally important sportfish whose persistence is being challenged by natural recruitment declines throughout much of its native range. Depensation, among other abiotic and biotic stressors, has been implicated in walleye natural recruitment declines. If walleye population productivity is related to critical depensatory thresholds, then population productivity benchmarks could be established to reduce the probability of crossing them. We used empirically-derived and model predicted depensation values (q) and empirical estimates of walleye population productivity to test for relationships between these variables in northern Wisconsin lakes. We found little evidence for a relationship between q and walleye population productivity across all lakes examined. Our finding failed to support the theoretical postulation of a relationship between these variables by Post et al. (2002) for walleye. Little evidence for a relationship between q and population productivity suggests that depensatory thresholds may differ among individual walleye populations and that walleye populations may transition abruptly between compensatory and depensatory states. Given our findings, conservation efforts for walleye that solely focus on low productivity populations may miss other trends because population productivity may not be considered a broad predictor of crossing a critical depensatory threshold.

Released January 22, 2026 09:37 EST

2026, Ecosphere (17)

Tabitha A. Graves, William Michael Janousek, Michael Yarnall, Jami Belt

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site (n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Released January 22, 2026 09:04 EST

2026, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (686)

John A. Barron, Thomas J. DeVries, Jason J. Coenen

Diatom records from the East Pisco Basin (EPB) of southern Peru and offshore Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 682 A reveal stepwise increases in the primary productivity of the Humboldt Current during the middle and late Miocene. Although diatoms are present back through the late middle Eocene, successively enhanced diatom production occurs during the Miocene in four steps. The first step between 14.2 and 13.8 Ma marks the onset of diatom deposition in the Pisco-0 sequence. A second step at ∼12.9 Ma coincides with a major drop in global sea level during which diatom deposition ceased in the EPB but continued in ODP 682 A as well as in Chile, Ecuador, and Colombia. Beginning at 10.4 to 10.0 Ma, a major increase in diatom sedimentation rates in both the EPB and in ODP 682 A signals an abrupt intensification of the Humboldt Current productivity, which may be related to the closure of the Central American Seaway to deeper water circulation. A fourth step coincides with the transgressive deposition of the diatom-rich Pisco-2 sequence at 8.4 Ma and is enhanced by the onset of the global Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom (8.0–4.5 Ma). Between 7 and 6 Ma, common subtropical diatoms in ODP 682 A contrast with high diatom deposition rates in the EPB, suggesting variable El Niño-La Niña conditions. During this time, fossil vegetation evidence from southern Peru supports the presence of seasonal periods of enhanced rainfall typical of El Niño conditions. The Miocene trend of increasing sea mammal diversity in the EPB parallels these steps, further supporting stepwise enhancement of primary productivity in the Humboldt Current during the Miocene.

Released January 22, 2026 08:57 EST

2026, Environmental DNA (8)

Margaret Hunter, Adam Sepulveda, Dianne M. Gleeson, Alejandro Trujillo-Gonzalez, Caren C. Helbing, Helen C. Rees, Devin Nicole Jones-Slobodian, Rachel C. Miliano, Toshifumi Minamoto, Susanna Theroux, Cecilia Villacorta Rath, Taylor Wilcox, Hiroki Yamanaka, Katy E. Klymus

The effective use of environmental DNA (eDNA) tools is contingent on strict adherence to established and validated methods. Differences in eDNA methods and quality assurance protocols may contribute to variability in results. However, quality assurance measures such as proficiency testing can provide independent evaluation of laboratory performance against pre-established test criteria. With this commentary, we discuss how broad implementation of recurring proficiency testing in eDNA laboratories can build decision-maker confidence in eDNA results. It can also create a culture of continuous evaluation and improvement that minimizes error and meets performance requirements to inform the sustainable use or monitoring of natural resources. We provide an overview of proficiency testing across molecular disciplines, review the state of proficiency testing in eDNA applications, and draft a roadmap for the expanded application of proficiency testing informed by best practices for targeted eDNA detection. We suggest that best practice proficiency testing can be conducted by an independent, third-party sample provider. By demonstrating that laboratories are competent and capable of producing reliable results, implementation of proficiency testing best practices should foster confidence in eDNA measurements and its use in decision-making processes. Increased confidence in eDNA methods and a clear expectation of what is considered satisfactory performance are also likely to create more favorable conditions for investments in eDNA-based monitoring.

Released January 22, 2026 08:44 EST

2026, Remote Sensing (18)

Nicholas Brimhall, Kelvyn K. Bladen, Tom Kerby, Carl J. Legleiter, Cameron Swapp, Hannah Fluckiger, Julie E Bahr, Makenna Roberts, Kaden Hart, Christina L. Stegman, Brennan Bean, Kevin Moon

Remote sensing enables large-scale, image-based assessments of river dynamics, offering new opportunities for hydrological monitoring. We present a publicly available dataset consisting of 281,024 satellite and aerial images of U.S. rivers, constructed using an Application Programming Interface (API) and the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Hydrography Dataset. The dataset includes images, primary keys, and ancillary geospatial information. We use a manually labeled subset of the images to train models for detecting rapids, defined as areas where high velocity and turbulence lead to a wavy, rough, or even broken water surface visible in the imagery. To demonstrate the utility of this dataset, we develop an image segmentation model to identify rivers within images. This model achieved a mean test intersection-over-union (𝐼𝑜𝑈) of 0.57, with performance rising to an actual 𝐼𝑜𝑈 of 0.89 on the subset of predictions with high confidence (predicted 𝐼𝑜𝑈 > 0.9). Following this initial segmentation of river channels within the images, we trained several convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures to classify the presence or absence of rapids. Our selected model reached an accuracy and F1 score of 0.93, indicating strong performance for the classification of rapids that could support consistent, efficient inventory and monitoring of rapids. These data provide new resources for recreation planning, habitat assessment, and discharge estimation. Overall, the dataset and tools offer a foundation for scalable, automated identification of geomorphic features to support riverine science and resource management.

Released January 22, 2026 07:49 EST

2026, Transactions of the Royal Society of London (381)

Mark Williams, Mary L. McGann, Moriaki Yasuhara, Chhaya Chaudhary, Lisa Barber, Kerry Allen

Earth’s biosphere is in a period of rapid change, resulting from anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, habitat loss and species translocation and extinction. The extraordinary pace of change has led to the suggestion that we live in a new geological epoch of time called the Anthropocene. In this theme issue, we explore the major changes to the terrestrial and marine biospheres, from the deep oceans to the agricultural landscapes of the Anthropocene. We take a deliberately pluralistic approach that represents different viewpoints from the sciences and social sciences, examining our negative and sometimes calamitous impacts on species and ecosystems and our potential for positive interactions with the biosphere, and exploring change over millennia.

Released January 21, 2026 19:43 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Map 3542

Gregory J. Walsh, Sean P. Regan, Phillip S. Geer, Arthur J. Merschat, Kaitlyn A. Suarez, Ryan J. McAleer, Matt S. Walton, Jr., E. Allen Crider, Jr.

The bedrock geology of the 7.5-minute Eagle Lake quadrangle, Essex County, New York, consists of deformed and metamorphosed Mesoproterozoic gneisses of the Adirondack Highlands unconformably overlain by weakly deformed lower Paleozoic sedimentary rocks of the Champlain Valley. The Mesoproterozoic rocks occur on the eastern edge of the Adirondack Highlands and represent an extension of the Grenville Province of Laurentia. Granulite facies Mesoproterozoic paragneiss, marble, and amphibolite hosted the emplacement of an anorthosite-mangerite-charnockite-granite (AMCG) suite, now exposed mostly as orthogneiss, at approximately 1.18–1.15 giga-annum (Ga, billion years before present). The earliest of four phases of deformation (D1) predated AMCG magmatism and is characterized by gneissosity, rarely preserved F1 isoclinal folds, and migmatite in the paragneiss host rocks. A sample of hornblende quartz syenite from the AMCG suite, collected from an abandoned railroad cut on Old Furnace Road, yielded a U-Pb zircon age of 1,149±10 million years before present. D2 deformation produced a composite penetrative gneissosity, migmatite, and isoclinal F2 folds. Towards the end of D2, felsic magmatism (including the regionally extensive Lyon Mountain Granite Gneiss, abbreviated “LMG”) spread by penetrative migration as semiconcordant alkali feldspar granite sheets subparallel to S2 into the previously deformed lithologies. The LMG crystallized at approximately 1.15 to 1.14 Ga and displays synkinematic F2 folds thus constraining the time of D2 deformation. Exhumation of the Marcy anorthosite began during D3 along a mylonitic extensional detachment, as a type of core complex. Protracted D3 produced F3 folds exhibited in regional domes and basins, such as the Hammondville antiform, reactivation of the S2 foliation, partial melting, metamorphism, metasomatism, iron ore remobilization, and intrusion of magnetite-bearing pegmatite both as layer-parallel sills and crosscutting dikes. D4 created NE- and NW-trending boudinage, local high-grade ductile shear zones, and crosscutting granitic pegmatite dikes. Kilometer (km)-scale lineaments readily observed in lidar data are Ediacaran mafic dikes and Phanerozoic brittle faults. Lower Paleozoic rocks are part of the Early Cambrian to Late Ordovician great American carbonate bank on the ancient margin of Laurentia. The Potsdam Sandstone preserves the Cambrian stratigraphy in outliers above the Great Unconformity. The Paleozoic rocks are weakly folded and block faulted. Parts of the quadrangle are covered by undifferentiated glacial deposits, but much of the quadrangle contains only a variably thick, veneer of unmapped glacial till over significant areas of exposed bedrock. The map also shows waste rock piles and locations of historical mining operations. This study was undertaken to improve our understanding of the bedrock geology in the Adirondack Highlands, establish a modern framework for 1:24,000-scale bedrock geologic mapping in the Adirondack Mountains, and provide a modern context for historical mines. This Scientific Investigations Map of the Eagle Lake 7.5-minute quadrangle consists of a map sheet, an explanatory pamphlet, and a geographic information system database that includes bedrock geologic units, faults, outcrops, and structural geologic information. The map sheet includes a bedrock geologic map, a correlation of map units, a description of map units, an explanation of map symbols, and two cross sections. The explanatory pamphlet includes a discussion of the geology.

Released January 21, 2026 09:14 EST

2026, Ecology and Evolution (16)

C. M. Costello, L. L. Roberts, D. D. Bjornlie, M. D. Cameron, J. G. Clapp, Mark Haroldson, G. V. Hilderbrand, K. Joly, W. Kasworm, J. M. Nicholson, T. Radandt, M. S. Sorum, J. E. Teisberg, Frank T. van Manen, M. A. Vinks

Timing of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) parturition during hibernation has been explained by ancestral traits (delayed implantation, altricial young, obligate maternal denning), but the ultimate driver underlying precise timing has not been fully explored. Capitalizing on an observed latitudinal increase in denning duration among four populations in interior North America, we tested two alternative hypotheses. First, that birth timing results from a physiological cue that synchronizes implantation with the onset of hibernation, allowing females to forgo reproduction should they lack adequate fat stores. Alternatively, that parturition is optimally timed relative to den exit to balance an energetic tradeoff between minimizing lactation time to protect the mother and maximizing developmental time to increase cub survival. Using parturition dates previously predicted from accelerometer data (27 Dec–28 Feb), we classified 115 females according to apparent litter survival when first visually observed after den exit: 57% successful (with cubs), 22% unsuccessful (alone), and 21% unknown (not observed). The number of days between birth and den exit showed no association with latitude (p = 0.29). It averaged 103 days among successful females but only 77 days among unsuccessful females (p < 0.001) owing to later births and earlier exit. With each increasing degree of latitude, birth date increased by 1.0 and number of days between den entry and birth increased by 2.5 (p < 0.001). Implantation dates were not centered on den entry dates (p < 0.001). These results supported the energetic tradeoff hypothesis and suggested natural selection has favored a consistent number of days between parturition and den exit under average body conditions and shifts toward later or earlier births for females with lower or higher levels of bodily stored energy, respectively. This flexible tradeoff may support resilience to climate change and present a possible mechanism explaining reduced natality and cub survival in high-density populations.

Released January 21, 2026 07:00 EST

2026, Open-File Report 2025-1057

Suellen Lynn, Alexandra Houston, Barbara E. Kus, Shannon M. Mendia

Executive Summary 

The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with a summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California (MCBCP or Base). The report presents results of vireo surveys and monitoring in 2024 and summarizes a subset of data collected from 2020 through 2024. Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP between April 4 and July 9, 2024. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 542 territorial male vireos and 17 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 102 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 5 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). In core survey areas, 87 percent of vireo territories were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 67 percent of all territories in core areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 77 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired.

The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 3 percent from 2023. In five core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in two core survey area drainages, the Santa Margarita River and Las Flores Creek, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least nine between 2023 and 2024. The number of vireo territories at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton did not change from 2023 to 2024. The proportion of surveys during which Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) were detected decreased to 0.03 from a peak of 0.45 in 2022. Cowbirds were detected in April and June in 2024.

Most core-area vireos (58 percent, including transients) used mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 9 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores (Platanus racemosa). Riparian scrub dominated by mule fat (Baccharis salicifolia), sandbar willow (S. exigua), or blue elderberry (Sambucus mexicana) was used by 33 percent of vireos. Habitat dominated by non-native vegetation was used by 1 percent of vireos.

Since 2020, the number of vireos detected in each of the non-core survey groups was greater than expected, based on the change in vireo numbers in core survey areas. Although, the number of vireo territories on Base decreased from 2020–24, from approximately 1,224 to approximately 960, the trend in vireo territory numbers on Base since 2005 has been positive.

In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface during daylight hours starting in mid-April and ending in August each year and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited MCBCP, including the seep areas, within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the fifth year of annual monitoring and analyses summarizing all 5 years of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps.

In 2020, we established four study sites along the Santa Margarita River, two surrounding and extending downstream from existing and proposed seep pumps at the Old Treatment Ponds and along Pump Road and two Reference sites in similar habitat downstream from the Seep sites. Seep pumps began operating at the Old Treatment Ponds in 2020 and along Pump Road in 2021. In 2023, seep pumps at the Pump Road Seep site did not function, and we recategorized that study site as Intermediate. We sampled vegetation at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites to determine the effects of surface-water enhancement by seep pumps. In 2024, vegetation cover was highest near the ground and decreased with increasing height. Woody vegetation made up most of the cover at all height categories. We determined that Seep and Intermediate sites differed from each other in addition to differing from Reference sites, which likely is, in part, because seep-pump operation at the Intermediate site was inconsistent compared to the Seep site. Soil saturation in 2024 was high at the Intermediate site and was associated with high native herbaceous cover and low non-native herbaceous cover. Sites differed, with the Intermediate site having more upper canopy cover in general, the Seep site having more low woody cover, and the Reference sites having more mid-canopy non-native vegetation cover.

Soil saturation significantly increased from 2020 through 2024 at the Seep site and was significantly higher at Seep and Intermediate sites than at their paired Reference sites in all years. Soil saturation likely was increased by the supplemental surface water at the Seep site. However, soil saturation at the Intermediate site was not clearly associated with seep pumps but likely affected by soil saturation at the site before seep-pump installation and flooding from high precipitation. Canopy height increased at the Intermediate site from 2020 through 2024 and increased with increasing soil saturation at the Intermediate and Reference sites. The canopy at the Seep site was shorter than at the Intermediate and Reference sites and decreased from 2020 through 2024 because tall trees were damaged and killed by shothole borer beetles (Euwallacea spp.).

We used Redundancy Analysis to discover associations among vegetation types, plant species, and other environmental variables (soil saturation, site, precipitation, and seep operation, defined as the site and year seep pumps were operating). These associations explained less than 15 percent of the variability in the vegetation, with the remaining 85 percent of variation unexplained. Generally, as soil saturation increased, understory vegetation increased and non-native cover decreased in the mid-and upper canopy. Non-native herbaceous plant species decreased in wetter soil.

The Seep site was characterized by more understory and less canopy, contrasting with the Intermediate site, which was characterized by less understory and more higher canopy cover. The addition of surface water via seep pumps or precipitation was associated with more vegetation near the ground. Higher early winter precipitation was associated with taller canopy and more woody vegetation in the upper canopy. We also created a Redundancy Analysis model isolating the components of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher habitat, as identified by Howell and others (2018). In this model, increased soil saturation resulted in increased cover of stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) and black willow (Salix gooddingii) below 3 meters (m), total cover 3–6 m, and black willow above 6 m. Cover of poison hemlock (Conium maculatum) and stinging nettle below 3 m was higher at the Seep site and lower at the Intermediate site.

Vireo territory density among the Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. However, vireo territory density at Seep and Intermediate sites combined was significantly higher than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed.

We banded and resighted color banded vireos as part of a long-term evaluation of vireo survival, site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo return rate and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireo nestlings during the 2024 season.

In 2024, we resighted 31 Least Bell's Vireos on Base that had been banded before the 2024 breeding season, and we were able to identify 25 of them. Of the 25 that we could identify, 24 were banded on Base and 1 was originally banded on the San Luis Rey River. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 9 years old.

Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had significantly higher annual survival than females (60 percent versus 47 percent, respectively). Adults had higher annual survival than first-year vireos (61 percent versus 11 percent, respectively). The return rate of adult vireos to Seep, Intermediate, or Reference sites was not affected by the original banding site (Seep versus Intermediate versus Reference).

Most returning adult vireos, predominantly males, showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2023, 92 percent (all males) returned in 2024 to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.4±0.03 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2024 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2023 was 2.4±3.1 km.

We monitored 47 Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Breeding productivity in 2024 was similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites (2.8, 3.0, and 3.0 young fledged per pair, respectively), and the percentage of pairs that fledged at least one young was not significantly different among sites (83, 91, and 96 percent, respectively). According to the best model, daily nest survival from 2020–24 was not related to site. Other measures of breeding productivity were also similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference site pairs.

Between 2020 and 2024, the number of vireo fledglings produced per pair increased with increasing native herbaceous cover under 3 m and decreasing cover of all herbaceous vegetation under 5 m and was not affected by precipitation, site, or seep operation. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was lower at the Seep and Intermediate sites than at the Reference sites and increased with decreasing late winter precipitation, cover of poison hemlock, black mustard, non-native vegetation above 2 m, and all vegetation over 2 m. Vireo pairs at Seep and Intermediate sites were less likely to fledge young than vireo pairs at Reference sites. All vireo pairs were more likely to fledge young with less cover of poison hemlock and more cover of poison oak.

From 2020 through 2024, vireos placed their nests in 24 plant species. The most used plants in all years were willows, mostly red (S. laevigata), or arroyo (S. lasiolepis). The fate of a vireo nest (whether it successfully fledged young or not) was not affected by placement in native or non-native vegetation, by site, or by year, but nests were more likely to be successful if they were placed in woody plants than in herbaceous plants. Successful nests were placed higher in the host plant and farther from the outer edge of the nest clump than unsuccessful nests.

Released January 20, 2026 15:17 EST

2026, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5102

Kevin K. Johnson

The Cook County Precipitation Network is a set of 25 precipitation gages established within Cook County, Illinois, on approximately a 5- to 7-mile square grid and used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help account for diversions of water from Lake Michigan to the State of Illinois. The transition from the precipitation gage network operated by the Illinois State Water Survey to the precipitation gage network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was compared for periods of overlapping data. This transition took place from May through September during the 2019 water year. The USGS was able to establish replacement precipitation gages at 17 of the 25 sites by the conclusion of the overlapping operational period.

The double-mass curve method was used to compare the two networks by creating a graph of the cumulated data collected by the Illinois State Water Survey and the comparable data collected by the USGS. Breaks in the double-mass curve method are caused by a change in the relation between variables. The eight sites that were installed following the overlapping period have a gap in the recorded data; however, the slope of the line for each of the eight sites is nearly equivalent to the previous data. In general, the cumulated precipitation data from the two networks were similar. Three sites had greater than 8-percent difference in their cumulative data ratios, located at Cicero, Ping Tom Park at Chicago, and South Shore, Ill.

Released January 20, 2026 10:58 EST

2026, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (123)

Mei Nelissen, Debra A. Willard, Han Konijnenburg-van Cittert, Gabriel J. Bowen, Teuntje Hollaar, Appy Sluijs, Joost Frieling, Henk Brinkhuis

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Mya) interval was marked by massive ¹³C-depleted carbon emissions into the ocean/atmosphere system, manifested as a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) in sedimentary components, and ~5 °C global average warming. Episodes of hydrological perturbations and soil-erosion have been widely documented for the PETM but their link with vegetation- and carbon cycle changes remain poorly constrained. Here, we present organic microfossil evidence showing a strong increase in fern-dominated pioneer vegetation that replaced coniferous forests on the margin of the Norwegian Sea during the first millennia of the CIE. With the present stratigraphic constraints, the “fern spike” occurred simultaneously in terrestrial settings along the North Sea, Arctic Ocean, the US east coast and in southern Australia, indicating that pioneer vegetation persisted for several millennia following a partial collapse of previously stable terrestrial ecosystems. Both the ferns and influx of microcharcoal imply recurrent physical disturbance, including soil destabilization and erosion, potentially linked to droughts, wildfires, and strong hydrological forcing resulting from extreme climate change. Together with evidence for reworked clay minerals and ancient organic matter (kerogen), these findings show that highly disturbed terrestrial ecosystems were widespread across mid- and high-latitude regions globally. Carbon cycle model simulations suggest that a substantial loss of standing and buried biomass, along with oxidation of soil organic matter, acted as important positive feedbacks during the onset of the CIE. Additionally, enhanced kerogen weathering likely contributed as another major positive feedback throughout both the onset and main phase of the CIE.

Released January 20, 2026 09:22 EST

2026, Ecotoxciology and Environmental Safety (310)

Lillian M. Pavord, Melissa K. Driessnack, Aaron B. Shiels, Steven Volker, Barnett A. Rattner, Jenifer McIntyre

To restore native biodiversity on island ecosystems containing invasive rodents, partial- and whole-island eradications generally rely on broadcast baiting with anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs). This approach can result in bait pellets entering aquatic environments, raising concerns about effects to non-target fish. Salmonids are a dominant group of fishes on many temperate islands targeted for rodent eradication, and AR toxicity data for salmonids are limited. Our goal was to determine if coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) are susceptible to coagulopathy and death via exposure to commonly used ARs. We assessed risk of ARs to coho using dose-response curves generated through intraperitoneal injections after determining that coho would not directly ingest the AR baits. Median lethal doses (96-h LD₅₀) estimated using 100 % corn oil carrier were 85.7 µg/g for brodifacoum and 54.0 µg/g for diphacinone. Acetone (30–41 %), used to dissolve ARs in corn oil, reduced the toxicity of diphacinone (LD₅₀ = 102.3 µg/g, p < 0.001) but not brodifacoum (LD₅₀ = 73.3 µg/g, p = 0.126) indicating that solvent choice can influence toxicity outcomes. Behavioral changes and onset of mortality differed between the two ARs, with diphacinone acting more rapidly. Tissue analysis supported a difference in toxicokinetics between the two ARs, with significant decreases in liver and muscle residues for diphacinone but not brodifacoum. Sublethal brodifacoum exposure (53.9 µg/g; LD₁₃) impaired blood clotting at 72- and 96- h but returned to baseline by 120 h. No clotting impairment was observed up to 144 h after diphacinone exposure (45.5 µg/g; LD₄), suggesting a non-coagulopathy mode of action. These findings will inform risk assessments when considering use of these ARs for rodent management near streams and shorelines and clearly demonstrate that brodifacoum causes coagulopathy in coho.

Released January 19, 2026 08:59 EST

2026, Quaternary Research

Karissa Cordero, Nathan Brown, Lauren N. Harrison, Shaul Hurwitz

Hydrothermal explosions are a significant geological hazard in some active volcanic systems; however, the timing and triggering mechanisms of these explosions are poorly constrained. This study applies luminescence dating techniques to hydrothermal explosion deposits in the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field to constrain explosion chronologies and evaluate potential triggering mechanisms. We tested four luminescence dating techniques: K-feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR225), quartz blue light optically stimulated luminescence (BLOSL), quartz blue thermoluminescence (BTL), and quartz red thermoluminescence (RTL). The pIRIR225 and RTL protocols produce consistent age estimates that agree with independent radiocarbon ages and with the timing of the Pinedale deglaciation. This study focuses on two craters, Mary Bay, along the northern shore of Yellowstone Lake, and Pocket Basin in Lower Geyser Basin. The mean pIRIR225 ages from Mary Bay deposits (11.99 ± 0.68 ka) agree with previous radiocarbon constraints. The mean pIRIR225 results from Pocket Basin deposits (13.44 ± 1.06 ka) suggest a history of explosion following Pinedale deglaciation, followed by recent hydrothermal alteration. Luminescence dating techniques are a promising tool for reconstructing the timing of hydrothermal explosions in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, helping to constrain recurrence intervals of the largest hydrothermal systems, informing risk, and improving hazard assessments.

Released January 19, 2026 08:07 EST

2026, Remote Sensing (18)

Logan Steinharter, Peter Christian Ibsen, Priyanka deSouza, Melissa R. McHale

The scale and magnitude of urban heating are often assessed using Satellite-Derived Land Surface Temperature (SD-LST). Yet, discrepancies in spatial resolution limit SD-LST’s ability to reflect pedestrian thermal experience, potentially leading to ineffective mitigation strategies. Hyper-local measurements of urban heat, defined as surface temperatures (T_S) at the scale of pedestrian activity (e.g., bus stops or street segments), may provide more accurate insights into thermal comfort. This study compares hyper-local ~0.01 m resolution T_S collected via consumer-grade Forward-Looking Infrared (FLIR) thermography with resampled 30 m resolution SD-LST from Landsat 8 and 9 images to evaluate their utility in predicting thermal comfort indices across 60 bus stops in Denver, Colorado. During the summer of 2023, 270 FLIR measurements were collected over 19 dates, with a four-day subset (n = 33) coinciding with Landsat imagery. FLIR T_S averaged 25.12 ± 5.39 °C, while SD-LST averaged 35.90 ± 12.56 °C, a significant 10.77 °C difference (95% CI: 6.81–14.73; p < 0.001). FLIR T_S strongly correlated with biometeorological metrics such as air temperature and mean radiant temperature (r > 0.8; p < 0.001), while SD-LST correlations were weak (r < 0.3). Linear mixed-effects models using FLIR T_S explained 50–66% of the variance in thermal comfort indices and met ISO 7726 standards. Each 1 °C increase in FLIR TS predicted a 0.75 °C rise in mean radiant temperature. These results highlight hyper-local thermography as a reliable, low-cost tool for urban heat resilience planning.

Released January 18, 2026 09:03 EST

2026, Molecular Ecology (35)

Erik A. Beever, Elizabeth Osterhoudt, Ethan B. Linck

No abstract available.

Released January 17, 2026 07:45 EST

2026, Global and Planetary Change (259)

Harry J. Dowsett, Kevin M. Foley

Paleoclimate researchers have been comparing Pliocene environmental data to paleoclimate model results since the 1980s. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) began in 2008 with a focus on the Late Pliocene. Here we assess the availability and utility of sea surface temperature (SST) data for verification of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP3) Early Pliocene (Zanclean) experiments. We analyze published data in terms of quantity and spatial distribution. Only SST estimates derived using alkenone paleo thermometry are reported, and all estimates are based upon the same temperature calibration. Sea surface temperature data are selected from within three distinct time intervals: The early Zanclean 5.3 Ma – 4.2 Ma time slab, and two time slices within the early Zanclean, chosen by PlioMIP3 at 4.870 Ma and 4.474 Ma. Results show the early Zanclean time slab contains 2055 individual estimates. Approximately ∼ 80% of these estimates come from Sites 609, 642, 846, 847, 882, 907, and 1146. There are 17 sites with a total of 42 estimates within the 4.474 Ma ±10 kyr time slice, and 15 sites with a total of 47 data points within the 4.870 Ma ±10 kyr interval. The sparse spatial and temporal distribution of Zanclean data, relative to the data available for the mid Piacenzian, makes point-by-point data model comparison suspect. We suggest interpreting model output against lower resolution long term trends in proxy data, and comparison of models through temperature gradients, may be the most useful application of currently available data. Integrating Zanclean age coastal plain sequences within data model comparison schemes, for increased understanding of regional climate impacts, also holds great potential.