Released September 12, 2024 13:09 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3023

Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons

Introduction

National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Released September 12, 2024 08:49 EST

2024, Journal of Wildlife Management

Vincent S. Slabe, Ross H. Crandall, Todd E. Katzner, Adam E. Duerr, Tricia A. Miller

Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) face many anthropogenic risks including illegal shooting, electrocution, collision with wind turbines and vehicles, and lead poisoning. Minimizing or offsetting eagle deaths resulting from human-caused sources is often viewed as an important management objective. Despite understanding the leading anthropogenic sources of eagle fatalities, existing scientific research supports few practical solutions to mitigate these causes of death. We implemented a non-lead ammunition distribution program in southeast Wyoming, USA, and evaluated its effectiveness as a compensatory mitigation action to offset incidental take (i.e., fatalities) of golden eagles at wind energy facilities. In 2020 and 2022, we distributed non-lead ammunition to 699 hunters with big-game tags specific to our >400,000-ha study area. These hunters harvested 296 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), 14 deer (Odocoileus spp.), and 33 elk (Cervus canadensis) in the study area, which accounted for 6.9% and 6.5% of the harvest in these hunt units in 2020 and 2022, respectively. We used road surveys in 2020 to estimate a density of 0.036 (95% CI = 0.018–0.058) golden eagles/km² during the big game hunting season in our study area. Model output suggests that our non-lead ammunition distribution program offset the fatality of 3.84 (95% CI = 1.06–23.72) eagles over the course of these 2 hunting seasons. Our work illustrates the potential usefulness of non-lead ammunition distribution programs as an action to mitigate eagle fatalities caused by wind facilities or other anthropogenic causes of death.

Released September 11, 2024 11:41 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1052

Blake W. Sauey, Gavin N. Saari, Joel G. Putnam, Justine E. Nelson, James J. Wamboldt, J. Nolan Steiner, Robin D. Calfee

Invasive carp pose substantial economic and ecological damage when populations are widespread in freshwater systems within the United States. Resource managers in the United States have few chemical control tools to selectively remove nuisance fish. This study examined whether Antimycin–A (antimycin) wax encapsulated microparticles could cause selective lethality in invasive carps. The antimycin microparticles were selective toward bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) across multiple experimental scales. Microparticles applied in experimental pond studies caused approximately 50 percent lethality in invasive carp. Effluent pond studies performed at Rathbun Fish Hatchery (Moravia, Iowa) caused silver carp lethality at a lower rate than previous pond or laboratory studies (approximately 1 percent); however, minimal effects on other fish species were observed. The antimycin microparticle formulation shows the ability to cause lethality in filter-feeding invasive carp relative to other fish species and demonstrated the plausibility for delivering a typically nonselective toxicant in a selective manner to specific species based on their physiological feeding traits.

Released September 11, 2024 09:54 EST

2024, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (196)

Heather L. Walsh, Geoffrey Smith, Megan Schall, Stephanie Gordon, Vicki S. Blazer

Monitoring wild fish health and exposure effects in impacted rivers and streams with differing land use has become a valuable research tool. Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) are a sensitive, indicator species that exhibit signs of immunosuppression and endocrine disruption in response to water quality changes and contaminant exposure. To determine the impact of agriculture and development on smallmouth bass health, two sites (a developed/agriculture site and a forested site) in the Susquehanna River watershed, Pennsylvania were selected where bass and water chemistry were sampled from 2015 to 2019. Smallmouth bass were sampled for histopathology to assess parasite and macrophage aggregate density in the liver and spleen, condition factor (Ktl), hepatic gene transcript abundance, hepatosomatic index (HSI), and a health assessment index (HAI). Land use at the developed/agriculture site included greater pesticide application rates and phytoestrogen crop cover and more detections and higher concentrations of pesticides, wastewater-associated contaminants, hormones, phytoestrogens, and mycotoxins than at the forested site. Additionally, at the developed/agriculture site, indicators of molecular changes, including oxidative stress, immune/inflammation, and lipid metabolism-related hepatic gene transcripts, were associated with more contaminants and land use variables. At both sites, there were multiple associations of contaminants with liver and/or spleen macrophage aggregate density, indicating that changes at the molecular level seemed to be a better indicator of exposures unique to each site. The findings illustrate the importance of timing for land management practices, the complex mixtures aquatic animals are exposed to, and the temporal changes in contaminant concentration. Agricultural practices that affect hepatic gene transcripts associated with immune function and disease resistance were demonstrated which could negatively affect smallmouth bass populations.

Released September 11, 2024 08:55 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5075

Branden L. VonIns, G.F. Koltun

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ohio Water Development Authority and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, to compute low-flow frequency, flow-duration, and harmonic mean flow statistics for long-term streamflow gages and to develop regression equations to estimate those statistics at unregulated, ungaged stream locations in Ohio. The flow statistics were computed with data collected after the 1974 water year because upward trends and statistically significant step changes (occurring after the late 1960s but before 1975) in annual flow statistics were detected at many candidate gages in Ohio. A total of 180 continuous-record gages in Ohio and bordering States were identified as having at least 10 years of daily flow records during the analytical period (water years 1975–2020). Also identified were six low-flow partial-record gages in Ohio that had instantaneous low flows that correlated strongly with daily streamflows at one of the continuous-record gages (also referred to as index gages). For continuous-record gages, the following flow statistics were computed: annual and seasonal minimum 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day flows with 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year recurrence intervals; annual and seasonal 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 20-, and 10-percent duration flows; and the harmonic mean flow. For partial-record gages, estimates were made for annual and seasonal minimum 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day low flows with 2-, 10-, and 20-year recurrence intervals and annual and seasonal 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, and 80-percent duration flows.

The drainage basin of each gage was inspected for anthropogenic or karst features that could appreciably affect or regulate low flows. That inspection resulted in data from 53 of the 180 continuous-record gages and the 6 low-flow partial-record gages being categorized as “unregulated” and subsequently used in regression analyses to develop equations for estimating low-flow statistics. Two hundred and sixty potential explanatory variables were tested for this study. In most cases, a streamflow-variability index (SVI) was chosen as the sole explanatory variable for the regression analyses to predict the harmonic mean and annual and seasonal low-flow yields. The exceptions were for one of the September–November low-flow yield statistics and all the December–February yield statistics. Drainage area, decimal longitude, and usually SVI were chosen as the explanatory variables for those exceptions and to predict the 80-percent duration flows. The SVI values used in the model were estimated from a geospatial grid of SVI values developed for this study by using an empirical Bayesian kriging regression prediction. Observations for continuous-record gages used in the regression analyses were weighted as a function of their record length. Weights for partial-record gages were estimated based on the weights determined for their index gages.

Equations for low-flow yields were developed by using censored regressions with a censoring level of 0.00001 cubic foot per second per square mile. Numerical constraints were placed on the yield equations if they could compute yields less than the yield censoring level or if the yields did not monotonically decrease with increasing SVI. Logistic-regression equations were developed, with SVI and drainage area as explanatory variables, to estimate the probability that the low-flow statistics were greater than the flow censoring level (0.01 cubic foot per second).

The regression equations presented in this report were developed for implementation in the Ohio StreamStats application. The equations are applicable to unregulated streams in Ohio and are not applicable to streams with karst drainage features, diversions, regulation, or other anthropogenic activities that can appreciably affect low flow. The equations were developed by using observations with a range of SVI values from 0.41 to 1.23 log₁₀ cubic foot per second and a range of drainage areas from 0.21 to 540 square miles. The applicability of the equations outside these ranges is not known.

Released September 10, 2024 15:39 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1056

David A. Brandt, Aaron T. Pearse

The Aransas-Wood Buffalo population of Grus americana (Linnaeus, 1758; whooping cranes) migrates through the U.S. Great Plains, encountering places substantially altered by human activity. Using telemetry data from 2017 to 2022, we investigated whooping crane migration behavior around U.S. Air Force bases in Oklahoma. Our study focused on potential collision risks between whooping cranes and aircraft, a substantial concern for aviation safety. We determined that activity was greatest at Kegelman Air Force Auxiliary Airfield, near whooping crane critical habitat. On average, 61 percent of marked whooping cranes used locations west of Kegelman Air Force Auxiliary Airfield and Vance Air Force Base during autumn migration and 55 percent during spring migration, and few cranes approached within 5 kilometers of airfields. Flight characteristics revealed seasonal variations in altitude and timing; cranes flew at lower altitudes in autumn and had distinct flight patterns. Additionally, we assessed temporal aspects of migration, identifying average arrival and departure dates for spring and autumn migrations. Cranes indicated consistency in seasonal presence, which may aid in risk assessments. Our findings underscore the importance of monitoring potential interactions between whooping cranes and aircraft, particularly around whooping crane critical habitat like the Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge in Oklahoma. Detailed summaries of migration patterns and flight behavior can be used to assist the U.S. Air Force in assessing collision risks and developing mitigation strategies. Furthermore, these summaries can provide insights for the conservation efforts of this endangered species managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and serve as a step towards mitigating risks to aviation safety and the recovery of whooping cranes.

Released September 10, 2024 10:35 EST

2024, International Journal of Coal Geology (294)

P.A. Gonçalves, J. Kus, Paul C. Hackley, A.G. Borrego, M. Hámor-Vidó, W. Kalkreuth, J.G. Mendonça Filho, H.I. Petersen, W. Pickel, M.J. Reinhardt, I. Suárez-Ruiz, ICCP

Organic petrology developed from coal petrology, and, in the 1960s, it began to be applied to the study of dispersed organic matter (DOM) in sedimentary rocks other than coal. Over the last few decades, the petrology of DOM has been used to characterize organic matter in sedimentary basins with an emphasis on fossil fuel resource exploration. Today, due to the global research shift on topics related to climate, organic petrology has expanded into new application areas, such as geothermal exploration, biological carbon storage (biochar), disposal, and management of radioactive waste.

From the publication of the International Handbook of Coal Petrology (mid-20th century) to the present day, a large number of standards, books, and articles have been published as a result of the work of organic petrographers and petrologists around the world and efforts of the International Committee for Coal and Organic Petrology (ICCP) and The Society for Organic Petrology (TSOP) to promote the study of organic petrology. The current fundamentals and standards of organic petrology provide the international scientific community with well-informed guidance and recommendations to promote in-depth research. However, this information is currently widely scattered, leading to discrepancies in methodology and terminology. Therefore, this paper aims to present a comprehensive review of the main analytical standard test methods and techniques currently used in the petrology of DOM under reflected white light and UV and blue-light excitation, and to provide an efficient and well-defined reference guide. Furthermore, considering the important role of the ICCP in the development of organic petrology since the 1950s, a brief review of the ongoing activities of ICCP dealing with DOM is also presented.

Released September 09, 2024 11:58 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5085

Kendra M. Markland, Camille E. Buckley

Lead Belt, an area of major lead mining from the 1860s until 1972 where more than 8.5 million tons of lead were mined. After active mining ceased, the effects of mining activities persisted in the Big River system because of large mine waste pile erosion, and floodplain sediment and streambank contamination along several tributaries and the main stem of the Big River. Lead-contaminated streambed and floodplain sediments extend more than 90 miles from the Old Lead Belt to the confluence of the Big River with the Meramec River. The waste piles and mine-waste contaminated streambed and floodplain sediments have been sources of high concentrations of several trace elements, primarily cadmium, lead, and zinc. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 7 has made several efforts to prevent further erosion of contaminated sediments into the Big River including the capping of major mine waste piles, reclaiming sediment deposits along the floodplains, and monitoring soil conditions of croplands and residential properties.

A cooperative effort began in 2011 between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 7 to characterize suspended sediment quantity and quality in the Big River downstream from the Old Lead Belt as reclamation activities in the drainage basin progressed. The study was completed in two phases, and each phase included continuous stage, turbidity, and water temperature monitoring at the Big River below Bonne Terre, Missouri, streamgage and sampling station. Periodic suspended sediment samples also were collected manually (discrete samples) during base flow and selected stormflow events. Continuous streamflow, turbidity, and discrete suspended sediment data were used to develop regression models to compute daily suspended sediment concentrations and loads. During both phases, the discrete stormflow event samples were also evaluated to determine particle size distribution and concentrations of select trace elements. Phase one was completed from October 2011 through September 2013, and phase two, which is the primary focus of this report, was completed from October 2018 through September 2021. Phase two also included time-integrated suspended sediment samples collected using passive samplers. Discrete samples (collected during stormflow events) and passive samples were analyzed for concentrations of barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc in two sediment size fractions (when possible) to estimate trace element loads. Suspended sediment concentrations and loads and select trace element concentration results computed during phase one were compared to those computed during phase two to identify trends in the Big River Basin during the full study period.

The concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in nearly all discrete stormflow event suspended sediment samples and passive suspended sediment samples exceeded the threshold effect concentrations and the probable effect concentrations, which are two sediment quality guidelines. Most samples also exceeded the toxic effect threshold, the level at which sediment is considered to be heavily contaminated and problematic for sediment-dwelling organisms. Bulk cadmium concentrations (median of 7.90 milligrams per kilogram [mg/kg]) exceeded the toxic effect threshold (3.0 mg/kg) in 17 discrete stormflow event samples, and bulk lead concentrations (median of 1,070 mg/kg) exceeded the toxic effect threshold (170 mg/kg) in all 18 discrete stormflow event samples. Bulk zinc concentrations (median of 500 mg/kg) exceeded the toxic effect threshold (540 mg/kg) in eight discrete stormflow event samples. Bulk concentrations of these trace elements in passive suspended sediment samples were slightly greater, with concentrations of cadmium (median of 14.0 mg/kg) and lead (median of 1,860 mg/kg) exceeding the toxic effect threshold in all 18 samples. Bulk concentrations of zinc (median of 733 mg/kg) exceeded the toxic effect threshold in 15 passive samples. Compared to phase one (water years 2012–13), phase two (water years 2019–21) concentrations of lead and cadmium in the fine fraction of discrete suspended sediment samples collected at Big River below Bonne Terre were statistically similar; concentrations of barium and zinc were statistically smaller in samples collected during phase two (water years 2018–21).

Sediment quality data from passive samples and daily mean suspended sediment loads from the regression model were used to calculate annual oads of barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc at the Bonne Terre streamgage. Water year 2019 had the largest loads of barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc (58.6, 1.43, 194, and 76.5 tons, respectively). The total loads of barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc for phase two (water years 2019–21) were 149, 4.00, 520, and 213 tons, respectively. Less than 5 percent of the total lead load calculated for the study period was transported when daily mean streamflow was less than 455 cubic feet per second, which is the approximate flow at which the passive samplers were inundated and began sampling. This highlights that most of the lead load is transported during stormflow events and the effectiveness of using passive samplers for ongoing monitoring of the Big River.

Annual suspended sediment loads at the Bonne Terre streamgage computed using the regression model were 113,000 tons in water year 2019, 83,400 tons in water year 2020, and 96,500 tons in water year 2021. The event-based suspended sediment loads for the eight sampled stormflow events ranged from 45.3 to 32,500 tons. Although only a portion of all stormflow events during phase two were sampled, the loads accounted for during these eight stormflow events represented approximately 30.9 percent of the total suspended sediment load calculated for the study period, confirming that a large part of suspended sediments continue to be transported in the Big River during stormflow events. Event-based loads of barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc were greatest during the stormflow events sampled in January 2020 (event 4) and March 2021 (event 8). Event-based loads calculated for event 4 for barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc were 17.1, 0.206, 27.2, and 14.5 tons, respectively. During event 8, an estimated 15.6 tons of barium, 0.239 tons of cadmium, 34.0 tons of lead, and 13.6 tons of zinc were transported in suspended sediments. The continued high concentrations of lead in suspended sediments in the Big River, despite reclamation activities, is likely because of the continual transport from streambed and stream banks of lead-enriched sediment, which remain in the system from historical mining activities.

Released September 09, 2024 09:50 EST

2024, Newsletter

Kyra Harvey, Jennifer L. McKay

This Memo to All Banders (MTAB 109) was released in September 2024. Subjects in this this memo are 1. The Chief’s Chirp; 2. Alerts – Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and reminder that banders cannot submit data through Bandit, only manage data; 3. Staff updates – meeting reports; 4. News – Preserving 40+ years of legacy bird banding data and the BBL walks the walk for bird collisions; 5. A note from the permitting shelves – double check your authorizations; 6. A note from the supply room – remove rejected band transfers from the Portal, and a note on size 7A rivet bands; 7. Data management – taxa that include formerly recognize species and NABBP database species changes update; 8. Banding and encounter highlights; 9. Auxiliary marker corner – submit your data!; 10. Message to the Flyways - Gamebirds, Summer Flyways Council Meetings, and species code reminders; 11. Moments in history – a note on AOS Renaming; 12. Upcoming events; 13. Recent Publications; and 14. Request for information. 

Released September 09, 2024 09:39 EST

2024, Geosphere

Karissa B. Vermillion, Emily Renee Johnson, Jeffrey M. Amato, Matthew T. Heizler, Jenna Lente

The Cenozoic ignimbrite flare-up (40–18 Ma) generated multiple volcanic fields in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico resulting from asthenospheric mantle upwelling after removal of the Farallon slab. The correlation of tuffs to one another and to source calderas within these volcanic fields is essential for determining spatiotemporal patterns in volcanism and magma geochemistry, which have been used to deduce migration of the Farallon slab at depth and associated mantle melting. However, the correlation of Eocene–Oligocene tuffs in the southwestern U.S. is difficult because of post-emplacement erosion and faulting. This study focuses on spatiotemporal patterns of the initial episode of ignimbrite flare-up activity (ca. 36.5–33.8 Ma) in the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field in south-central New Mexico, USA. We show that alkali feldspar major and trace element geochemistry is an effective tool for correlating tuffs when combined with high-precision, single-crystal ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology and bulk-rock geochemistry. Using these data, we correlate several tuff units and differentiate other tuffs that have the same eruption age but very different geochemistry, and we conclude that there was a broadly northwestward migration in volcanism over time. The new tuff correlations are used to investigate spatiotemporal variations in magma geochemistry, erupted volumes, and recurrence intervals during the initial episode of Mogollon-Datil volcanic field volcanism. Early-erupted tuffs restricted to the eastern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field share similarities with western U.S. topaz rhyolites, which suggests that the silicic magmas were generated by partial melting of mafic lower crustal rocks. We also find differences in the compositions, crystallinities, and mineral assemblages between the early- and late-erupted tuffs. The early-erupted tuffs tend to have single-feldspar mineralogies, lower feldspar Or contents, large negative Eu anomalies, and low-whole–rock Ba concentrations. Conversely, late-erupted tuffs have two feldspar plus quartz assemblages, lesser Eu anomalies, higher whole-rock Ba concentrations, and feldspars have higher Or contents. Thus, we suggest that for some of the early eruptions, after magmas underwent crystal fractionation in the crust, the silicic melt largely separated from the crystalline mush prior to eruption, whereas late-erupted tuff magmas underwent crystal fractionation at near the eutectic minimum and were remobilized and erupted with a larger proportion of their crystalline mush. Using our new ages, correlations, and previously published data, we find that the initial phase of Mogollon-Datil volcanic field volcanism produced at least 15 eruptions between 36.5 Ma and 33.8 Ma, with a minimum total erupted volume of ~1350 km³ and an average recurrence interval of 170 k.y. However, eruptions were generally smaller in volume (most <15 km³) than in other coeval fields, and most eruptions (n = 11) occurred in the first 1.2 m.y. (ca. 36.5–35.3 Ma) of activity. Altogether, our work sheds new light on variations in the composition, timing, and migration of volcanism during the initial phase of Mogollon-Datil volcanic field activity and highlights the utility of feldspar geochemistry in both “fingerprinting” tuffs and elucidating magma evolution.

Released September 07, 2024 08:47 EST

2024, Ecosystem Services (69)

Kristin B. Byrd, Isa Woo, Laurie Anne Hall, Emily J. Pindilli, Monica Moritsch, Anthony Good, Susan E. W. De La Cruz, Melanie J. Davis, Glynnis Nakai

Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge. In an ecosystem services assessment, we used different service-appropriate methods including citizen science, statistical and geospatial models, and scenario analysis to evaluate three ecosystem services – recreational birdwatching, soil carbon accumulation and fishery production – indicated as priorities for the Refuge, Nisqually Indian Tribe, and surrounding communities. We developed a generalized additive mixed model set based on eBird mobile application birdwatching observations to understand the biological and landscape features that influence birdwatching and to project birdwatching visitation based on scenarios of Delta habitat change. We evaluated ecosystem service synergies and tradeoffs associated with habitat change for three coastal habitat types using scenario outputs from the birdwatching model and published results on Delta soil carbon accumulation and fishery production. The highest-ranked birdwatching models explained 88 % of the deviance and showed that visitation was greatest in winter months when distance to major cities was approximately 20 km. Recreational birdwatching increased with increasing area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed, open access, and total estuary. With increasing forested and emergent wetland area, recreational birdwatching, out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation all increased. With increasing aquatic vegetation bed (resulting from sea level rise), recreational birdwatching increased, but salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation decreased. We identified practical ways in which ecosystem services may be incorporated into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. This study illustrated how use of ecosystem services can help managers make decisions that have greater benefit for wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions and increase local support and participation.

Released September 06, 2024 08:00 EST

2024, Circular 1526

Tamara Wilson, Ryan P. Boyles, Nicole DeCrappeo, Judith Z. Drexler, Kevin D. Kroeger, Rachel A. Loehman, John M. Pearce, Mark P. Waldrop, Peter D. Warwick, Anne M. Wein, Sara L. Zeigler, T. Douglas Beard, Jr.

Executive Summary 

Climate is the primary driver of environmental change and is a key consideration in defining science priorities conducted across all mission areas in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Recognizing the importance of climate change to its future research agenda, the USGS’s Climate Science Steering Committee requested the development of a Climate Science Plan to identify future research directions. Subject matter experts from across the Bureau formed the USGS Climate Science Plan Writing Team, which convened in September 2022 to identify and outline the major climate science topics of future concern and develop an integrated approach to conducting climate science in support of the USGS and U.S. Department of the Interior missions.

The resulting USGS Climate Science Plan identifies three major priorities under which USGS climate science proceeds: (1) characterize climate change and associated impacts, (2) assess climate change risks and develop approaches to mitigate climate change, and (3) provide climate science tools and support. The Climate Science Plan identifies 12 specific goals to achieve the outcomes of the three priorities.

1. Conduct long-term, broad-scale, and multidisciplinary measurements and monitoring and research activities to define, quantify, and predict the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems;
2. Provide leadership to standardize measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas emissions, lateral carbon fluxes, and carbon sinks across lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI);
3. Provide science capacity, training, tools, and infrastructure to Tribal partners; support Tribal-led science initiatives;
4. Conduct climate change research in partnership with the broader climate science community;
5. Develop improved data synthesis methods through collaborative and open science across mission areas and between the USGS and agency partners;
6. Translate climate change impacts into risk assessments in support of risk management strategies;
7. Develop new and improved risk assessments, models, and approaches for mitigating climate change, adapting to its impacts, and reducing uncertainties; design early warning systems for risk mitigation;
8. Investigate climate change mitigation strategies and create decision science support tools to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation;
9. Provide a framework that facilitates knowledge co-production needed to inform policy decisions;
10. Provide access to USGS data and information through novel integration and visualization approaches;
11. Build capacity within USGS and DOI through development of scientific training curricula; and
12. Coordinate science and capacity building efforts broadly across the Federal Government.

To achieve these goals, the USGS Climate Science Plan also outlines climate science guidelines—key elements for conducting climate-based research—as well as emerging opportunities to support successful climate science. The USGS Climate Science Plan provided in this circular will guide future research priorities and science-support investments, as well as continued development of the climate workforce for decades to come, ensuring that the USGS continues to serve as one of the Nation’s leading climate science agencies.

Released September 05, 2024 11:54 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5057

M.A. Lindaman

Groundwater is heavily used for public supply and industrial uses in the Baton Rouge, Louisiana, area. Lowered water levels resulting from groundwater withdrawals have induced the movement of saltwater towards wells in East Baton Rouge and West Baton Rouge Parishes. Saltwater intrusion has the potential to affect water supply infrastructure, reduce water availability for some uses, and increase treatment costs. To document current conditions, samples were collected from 161 wells screened in 10 aquifers of the Southern Hills regional aquifer system during November 2021 through February 2022. The results were compared with historical data to identify where chloride concentrations are increasing, which could indicate that saltwater intrusion is occurring. Saltwater intrusion, to varying degrees and areal extents, was observed in most of the 10 aquifers. The limited availability of monitoring wells near or within some of the known saltwater plume areas restricts tracking of the movement or delineation of the plumes’ current extents.

Released September 05, 2024 09:39 EST

2024, Circular 1518

Seth C. Moran, Christina A. Neal, Thomas L. Murray

This publication describes the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Science Center (VSC) Response Plan for Significant Volcanic Events (hereinafter referred to as “the plan”) that has been developed for U.S volcano observatories over the past several years in consultation with the lead scientist, or Scientist-in-Charge (SIC), of each of the five U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) volcano observatories. The goal of the plan is to define a standardized management system that ensures the VSC can achieve the following during a volcanic crisis:

• maintain situational awareness and issue timely warnings and hazard assessments,
• fulfill internal and external agency requests for information as well as requests from the public,
• sustain financial and technical support, and
• gather critical scientific data.

The plan addresses situations in which the scale of a response at least temporarily eclipses the response capabilities of a single observatory. The plan features two integrated response structures for managing and carrying out operations within the VSC during a crisis: the Observatory Volcanic Event Response Team (OVERT) and the Center Volcanic Event Response Team (CVERT). The design of these structures reflects lessons learned from past volcanic responses and is influenced by the Incident Command System used by the U.S. Federal Government for managing emergency responses. The plan clarifies expectations regarding the flow of information during a response, summarizes required tasks of the responding observatory and VSC to ensure a successful response, defines response-team roles and responsibilities, and describes the internal communication practices critical for an effective and coordinated response.

Released September 05, 2024 09:22 EST

2024, Northeastern Naturalist (31) E109-E130

David Muth, Jeffrey E. Lovich, Rodrigo Macip-Rios, Doug Gomez, Kristy L. Cummings, Michele (Shellie) R. Puffer, Charles Yackulic

We studied Actinemys pallida (Southwestern Pond Turtle) in Amargosa Creek, near Palmdale, CA, from 1997 to 2023. The population in the upper creek was the focus of a mark–recapture study from 1997 to 2003 during monitoring required by a road-construction project. An estimated 193 (95% CI = 142–256) turtles were present in 1997 or recruited to the upper creek population between 1997 and 2003. Total abundance and recruitment declined after 2001, coincident with the onset of a multi-decadal megadrought. Turtles in upper Amargosa Creek are presumed to be extirpated because the creek dried up in the ensuing years. As part of a separate research project, we resurveyed the lower creek at Piute Ponds on Edwards Air Force Base from 2019 to 2023. As of 2023, there was a remnant breeding population of at least 22 turtles there. We did not find any marked turtles from the upper creek in the ponds. Only 2 populations of Southwestern Pond Turtles are known to survive in the Mojave Desert, one at Piute Ponds and another in the Mojave River.

Released September 05, 2024 09:18 EST

2024, Ecology

Bryan M. Maitland, Harvey A. Bootsma, Charles R. Bronte, David Bunnell, Zachary S. Feiner, Kari Fenske, William Fetzer, Carolyn Foley, Brandon Gerig, Austin Happell, Tomas O. Hook, Friedrich W. Keppeler, Matthew Kornis, Ryan F. Lepak, Andrew McNaught, Brian Roth, Ben Turschak, Joel C. Hoffman, Olaf P. Jensen

The landscape theory of food web architecture (LTFWA) describes relationships among body size, trophic position, mobility, and energy channels that serve to couple heterogenous habitats, which in turn promotes long-term system stability. However, empirical tests of the LTFWA are rare and support differs among terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems. Further, it is unclear whether the theory applies in highly altered ecosystems dominated by introduced species such as the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we provide an empirical test of the LTFWA by relating body size, trophic position, and the coupling of different energy channels using stable isotope data from species throughout the Lake Michigan food web. We found that body size was positively related to trophic position, but for a given trophic position, organisms predominately supported by pelagic energy had smaller body sizes than organisms predominately supported by nearshore benthic energy. We also found a hump-shaped trophic relationship in the food web where there is a gradual increase in the coupling of pelagic and nearshore energy channels with larger body sizes as well as higher trophic positions. This highlights the important role of body size and connectivity among habitats in structuring food webs. However, important deviations from expectations are suggestive of how species introductions and other anthropogenic impacts can affect food web structure in large lakes. First, native top predators appear to be flexible couplers that may provide food web resilience, whereas introduced top predators may confer less stability when they specialize on a single energy pathway. Second, some smaller bodied prey fish and invertebrates, in addition to mobile predators, coupled energy from pelagic and nearshore energy channels, which suggests that some prey species may also be important integrators of energy pathways in the system. We conclude that patterns predicted by the LTFWA are present in the face of species introductions and other anthropogenic stressors to a degree, but time-series evaluations are needed to fully understand the mechanisms that promote stability.

Released September 05, 2024 09:18 EST

2024, Conference Paper, Proceedings of 2024 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS)

Jung-Kuan (Ernie) Liu, Rongjun Qin, Shuang Song

The goal of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is to facilitate the acquisition of nationwide lidar data. Although data meet USGS lidar specifications, some point cloud tiles include noisy and incorrectly classified points. The enhanced accuracy of classified point clouds can improve support for many downstream applications such as hydrologic analysis, urban planning, and forest management. Despite noisy and incorrectly classified points, the current 3DEP classification specifications result in data that can be useful for Digital Terrain Model (DTM) extraction; however, the quality of the classification application can be improved to match state-of-the-art capabilities. Deep Learning (DL)-based approaches have been developed with outstanding performance for point cloud classification. This study will utilize the proven DL technologies to prepare for developing a user-friendly open-source toolkit that would automate classification to refine and enrich the results of existing and future 3DEP data.

Released September 04, 2024 14:30 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5038

Donald S. Sweetkind, Amy E. Galanter

As part of a U.S. Geological Survey study in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Pueblo of Acoma, New Mexico, and the Pueblo of Laguna, New Mexico, a digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed for the Rio San Jose and its surface-water drainage basin in west-central New Mexico. This three-dimensional model defines the altitude, thickness, and extent of 18 geologic units for use in a regional numerical hydrologic model. The model included an undifferentiated Proterozoic basement layer, 13 consolidated Paleozoic and Mesozoic rock units, and 4 Cenozoic units. Model input data were compiled from published cross sections, well data, structure contour maps, selected geophysical data, and data derived from geologic maps and structural features in the study area. These data were used to construct faulted surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface geologic unit boundaries. The digital three-dimensional geologic framework model combines faults, the altitude of the tops of each geologic unit, and boundary lines depicting the subsurface extent of each geologic unit. The digital three-dimensional geologic model described in this report and the corresponding data release represents the generalized geometry of the subsurface geologic units; it reproduces with reasonable accuracy the input geologic data and is consistent with previously published subsurface conceptualizations of the region. The geologic framework model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

Released September 04, 2024 12:35 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5049

David S. Armstrong

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP), began a study in 2018 to develop a water-quality monitoring strategy (WQMS) for Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary in southeastern Massachusetts. MassDEP is interested in water-quality data in Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary to characterize current water-quality conditions, assess nutrient-related effects, and capture conditions before and after planned upgrades to wastewater treatment facilities. The WQMS provides an overview of the environmental setting of Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary and of dissolved oxygen and nutrient-related water-quality issues, reviews historical and existing monitoring data, and provides recommendations for future monitoring designed to meet five MassDEP management objectives: (1) support MassDEP’s review of coastal and marine dissolved oxygen criteria, (2) assess conditions within MassDEP waterbody assessment units in Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary with respect to selected criteria in the Massachusetts Surface Water Quality Standards, (3) assess conditions along the freshwater/saltwater interface (salt wedge) of the Taunton River Estuary and delineate the boundary between the freshwater and saltwater waterbody assessment units, (4) estimate data requirements needed to determine nutrient loads flowing into Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary, and (5) evaluate data requirements needed to support hydrodynamic and water-quality models for Mount Hope Bay and the Taunton River Estuary. This WQMS may be used by MassDEP to develop a statewide approach for monitoring estuaries in Massachusetts.

Released September 04, 2024 10:08 EST

2024, Earth and Space Science (11)

Ari Koeppel, Christopher S. Edwards, Lauren A. Edgar, Scott A Nowicki, Kristen A. Bennett, Amber Gullikson, Sylvain Piqueux, Helen A. Eifert, Daphne Chapline, A. Deanne Rogers

Surface thermal inertia derived from satellite imagery offers a valuable tool for remotely mapping the physical structure and water content of planetary regolith. Efforts to quantify thermal inertia using surface temperatures on Earth, however, have consistently yielded large uncertainties and suffered from a lack of reproducibility. Unlike dry or airless bodies, Earth's abundant water and dense atmosphere lead to dynamic thermophysical conditions that are a greater challenge to model than on a world like Mars. In this work, an approach was developed using field experiments to inform and fine-tune a thermophysical model of terrestrial sediment and calculate an inherent thermal inertia value with higher precision and less initial knowledge of the sediment than has previously been achieved remotely on Earth. A thermal inertia derived for a basaltic tephra site in Northern Arizona was replicated within 1% between different field seasons, demonstrating reproducibility. Model-derived values were validated in situ by two different thermophysical field probes to within 8% of the measured mean values. Analog studies such as this hold the promise of improved interpretations of surface materials on Mars, and an accurate thermal model for Earth is the key step to enabling translation between the two worlds.

Released September 04, 2024 09:21 EST

2024, Professional Paper 1888

Cynthia Dusel-Bacon, James K. Mortensen

The tectonic evolution of and relation between the Yukon-Tanana terrane and the Lake George assemblage, as well as other associated tectonic assemblages in western Yukon and eastern Alaska, have been debated for decades. The Yukon-Tanana terrane is widely considered to be an allochthonous rifted fragment derived from the Laurentian continental margin, whereas the Lake George assemblage and associated assemblages are currently interpreted to be part of the parautochthonous continental margin of western North America (Laurentia). To address these topics, we present 40 new U-Pb zircon ages and 20 new whole-rock geochemical analyses. We incorporate these data into a new compilation of available geological mapping for a large area that straddles the Alaska-Yukon border, together with 34 previously published U-Pb age determinations and an extensive geochemical database of metaigneous rocks from Late Devonian to Early Mississippian and middle to late Permian assemblages in this area.

Magmatism in the Lake George assemblage and related assemblages occurred in two pulses from about 371 to 360 and from about 358 to 347 million years ago (Ma); geochemical discrimination diagrams indicate a large crustal component, possibly indicative of arc magmatism, for felsic metaigneous rocks and a range of tectonic environments for mafic rocks. Magmatism in the Fortymile River and related assemblages, and parts of the Nasina assemblage—all parts of the Yukon-Tanana terrane—are mainly Early Mississippian and span a crystallization age range from about 361 to 343 Ma; geochemical discrimination diagrams for these rocks indicate primarily arc geochemical signatures for both mafic and felsic rocks. Middle to late Permian crystallization ages (about 261–253 Ma) are indicated for felsic metaigneous rocks in the Klondike assemblage and some of the felsic metaigneous rocks in the Nasina assemblage. Based on our mapping, we propose the existence of a possible unconformity between the Mississippian and Permian felsic metavolcanic rocks within the Nasina assemblage that is marked by sporadic occurrences of stretched-pebble conglomerate.

Our combined database supports the well-established model of a magmatic arc comprising the Fortymile River and Finlayson assemblages of the rifted Yukon-Tanana terrane continental fragment on which a middle to late Permian arc (Klondike assemblage) was later built. The assemblages of the Yukon-Tanana terrane were subsequently intruded by Late Triassic to Early Jurassic granitoids, presumably during reaccretion of the Yukon-Tanana terrane to the continental margin. Permian and Late Triassic to Early Jurassic intrusions have not been mapped in the now structurally lower plate Lake George assemblage; their absence is one of the lines of evidence that have been used to support the parautochthonous, rather than allochthonous, origin of the Lake George assemblage and related assemblages. Our new data, together with previously published ranges of igneous crystallization ages and geochemical tectonic signatures of the Late Devonian to Early Mississippian magmatic rocks in the Lake George assemblage and associated assemblages and in the Fortymile River, Nasina, and correlated assemblages of the Yukon-Tanana terrane, indicate that the currently accepted interpretation of the Lake George assemblage and associated rocks being part of parauthochthonous North America is not the only possible interpretation of this tectonic entity. Approximately half of the dated intrusive rocks in the Lake George assemblage are contemporaneous with the metaigneous rocks of the Yukon-Tanana terrane arc (<361 Ma). We speculate that our approximately 361 Ma U-Pb age for quartz syenite in part of the North American continental margin in south-central Yukon defines the beginning of rifting of the Laurentian margin. Although the currently favored model of prolonged middle Paleozoic subduction and extension in both the Yukon-Tanana terrane and parautochthonous North America allows for simultaneous middle Paleozoic magmatism on both sides of the Slide Mountain Ocean, we now propose an alternative hypothesis in which the Lake George assemblage represents a deeper part of the rifted Yukon-Tanana terrane arc. If this is the case, the absence of Permian and Late Triassic to Early Jurassic arc rocks in the Lake George assemblage could be explained either by the arcs of these ages not being wide enough to have affected the Lake George assemblage or by tectonic displacement of these arc rocks away from the Lake George assemblage.

Our approximately 259 Ma U-Pb zircon age and geochemical analyses of metarhyolite in the Seventymile terrane in Alaska, which comprises remnants of the back-arc basin that separated the Yukon-Tanana terrane from the Laurentian continental margin, confirm the presence of a late middle Permian volcanic arc component to the terrane. Our approximately 319 Ma U-Pb zircon age from the Chicken assemblage (as redefined in this study) in eastern Alaska, combined with previously reported fossil ages and a U-Pb zircon age from this assemblage, indicate that it is a Late Mississippian to Early Pennsylvanian arc assemblage. We propose several other relatively young, locally developed arc assemblages outboard of the ancient continental margin of Laurentia that may correlate with the Chicken assemblage, but we consider its origin to remain an enigma.

Released September 04, 2024 08:30 EST

2024, Ecotoxicology

Ann Allert, Danielle M. Cleveland, Robert J. DiStefano, Mark L. Wildhaber, Leslie K. Lueckenhoff

The Little St. Francis River and its tributaries drain metals-contaminated areas of the Madison County Mines National Priority List Superfund site (MCM) which was designated in 2003 to facilitate remediation of metals contamination within the MCM. One concern for natural resource trustees in the MCM is the potential effects of elevated metals concentrations on the federally threatened St. Francis River crayfish, Faxonius quadruncus, which has a geographic range that is limited to the St. Francis River watershed. A survey of riffle-dwelling crayfish, in-situ cage study, and laboratory toxicity tests were conducted to assess the effects of mining-derived metals on F. quadruncus and other crayfish species in the MCM. Crayfish densities were significantly greater at sites upstream of metals releases from historical mining (henceforth mining releases) compared to densities at sites downstream of mining releases, and metals concentrations in whole-body crayfish, surface water, sediments, macroinvertebrates, fish, and plant material were greater at sites downstream of mining releases compared to sites upstream of mining releases. Crayfish densities were also negatively correlated with consensus-based adverse effects indices, expressed as surface-water toxic units and sediment probable effects quotients. Decreased growth and increased mortality during cage and laboratory studies were likely due to exposure to, and subsequently uptake of, elevated concentrations of metals. Crayfish in all studies were found to bioaccumulate metals, which supports their utility as bioindicators of metals contamination. Study results show that elevated metals concentrations associated with mining releases in the MCM continue to adversely affect biota, including the federally threatened F. quadruncus.

Released September 04, 2024 08:24 EST

2024, Scientific Reports (14)

Mark W. Fritts, Daniel Gibson-Reinemer, Douglas Appel, Katharine Lieder, Cody Henderson, Amanda S. Milde, Marybeth K. Brey, James T. Lamer, Dominque Turney, Zachary Witzel, Emily Szott, Grace Loppnow, Joel Stiras, Kayla Zankle, Devon Oliver, John Hoxmeier, Andrea K. Fritts

Dams commonly restrict fish movements in large rivers but can also help curtail the spread of invasive species, such as invasive bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp). To determine how dams in the upper Mississippi River (UMR) affect large-scale invasive and native fish migrations, we tracked American paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) and bigheaded carp across > 600 river km (rkm) and 16 navigation locks and dams (LD) of the UMR during 2 years with contrasting water levels. In 2022, a low-water year, both native paddlefish and invasive bigheaded carp had low passage rates (4% and 0.6% respectively) through LD15, a movement bottleneck being studied for invasive carp control. In contrast, flooding in 2023 led to open-river conditions across multiple dams simultaneously, allowing 53% of paddlefish and 46% of bigheaded carp detected in Pool 16 to move upstream through LD15. Bigheaded carp passed upstream through LD15 rapidly (μ = 32 rkm per day) a maximum of 381 rkm, whereas paddlefish moved an average of 9 upstream rkm per day (maximum of 337 rkm). Our results can inform managers examining trade-offs between actions that enhance native fish passage or deter movements of invasive species. This understanding is critical because current climate change models project increases in flooding events like that observed during 2023.

Released September 04, 2024 06:57 EST

2024, Hydrological Sciences Journal

John C. Hammond, Annie L. Putman, Theodore B. Barnhart, Graham A. Sexstone, Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock, Aaron Joseph Heldmyer, Stephanie K. Kampf

Released September 04, 2024 06:51 EST

2024, PLoS ONE (19)

Sarah Nelson Sells, Cecily M. Costello

Released September 03, 2024 09:17 EST

2024, JGR Biogeosciences (129)

Jennifer A. Rogers, Kevin M. Robertson, Todd Hawbaker, Daniel J. Sousa

The effort to map terrestrial biodiversity, in recent years limited mostly to the use of broadband multispectral remote sensing at decameter scales, can be greatly enhanced by harnessing hyperspectral imagery. Interpretation of hyperspectral imagery may be aided by the Mixture Residual (MR) spectral preprocessing transformation. MR integrates the benefits of spectral mixture analysis with the absorption peak-enhancing characteristics of continuum removal. MR characterizes each pixel as a linear combination of generic end-members estimating the spectral continuum, from which the residual of each wavelength is computed and treated as a source of additional information. Using Hyperspectral Precursor of the Application Mission (PRISMA) imagery, we tested the ability of MR-transformed reflectance as compared to untransformed surface reflectance (SR) to map plant associations and land cover using ground truthing and random forest classifications across four landscapes within the North American Coastal Plain. We used a forward stepwise selection algorithm to choose bands for each classification and subsequently compared these between SR and MR. Our MR classifications distinguished land cover with 5% greater balanced accuracy on average than the SR-based classifications across all four landscapes. The MR-based classification that integrated data from all landscapes into a unified model encompassing all 21 land cover types achieved a 76% average balanced accuracy over three iterations. Generally, MR utilized the near-infrared region to a greater degree than SR while deemphasizing the green peak. Based on our results, MR improves the accuracy of mapping terrestrial biodiversity, likely extending to other current and planned satellite hyperspectral missions.

Released September 03, 2024 06:54 EST

2024, Remote Sensing (16)

Peter L. Guth, Sebastiano Trevisani, Carlos H. Grohmann, John Lindsay, Dean B. Gesch, Laurence Hawker, Conrad Bielski

Released September 03, 2024 06:34 EST

2024, Journal of Geophysical Research Space Physics (129)

Jeffrey J. Love, Kalevi Mursula

Released September 02, 2024 10:57 EST

2024, Engineering Geology (341)

Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Federico Agliardi, Greg M. Stock, Brian D. Collins, Giovanni Crosta

Rockfall fragmentation can play an important role in hazard studies and the design of protective measures. However, the current lack of modeling tools that incorporate rock fragmentation mechanics is a limitation to enhancing studies and design. This research investigates the fragmentation patterns of rockfalls and analyzes the resulting distribution of fragment sizes within corresponding rockfall deposits. We focus on small rock fragments, which provide insights into the dynamics of the rockfall event and can be used as input for numerical modeling. We analyzed multiple rockfall events from locations worldwide, each exhibiting different degrees of fragmentation. Using image analysis techniques, we mapped all visible blocks, determined their volumes, and measured the distances they travelled from the initial point of impact. A key finding is the identification of three indicators of fragmentation. First, in cases where fragmentation was largely absent, we observed a trend of increasing block size with distance from the impact point or source area, which aligns with previously published findings. However, for energetic rockfall events characterized by intense fragmentation, we observed that small fragments exhibited longer travel distances compared to larger fragments. This distinction allowed us to differentiate blocks primarily resulting from the disaggregation process from those primarily resulting from dynamic fragmentation, with implications for rockfall mobility. Second, although the size distribution of rockfall deposits exhibits a power-law scaling for volumes larger than a minimum size threshold corresponding to a rollover of the distribution, in some case studies a deviation from power-law scaling is observed, indicating a process of larger block comminution due to fragmentation. Third, we found that rockfalls with fragmentation experience reduced mobility, indicated by higher reach angles, and higher lateral dispersion showing a wider distribution of trajectories. We interpret these findings as being directly related to the energy-consuming nature of fragmentation, which prevents farther deposition of fragmented rock blocks.

Released September 01, 2024 09:39 EST

2024, Science Report NPS/SR-2024-178

Rebecca Diehl, J. M. Friedman

The National Park Service (NPS) is charged with maintaining natural riverine resources and processes in its parks along the Yampa River and downstream along the Green River. This mission requires information on how proposed water withdrawals would affect resources. We present a methodology that quantifies the impact on natural riverine and riparian features of Dinosaur National Monument based on alternative withdrawals that vary in volume and timing. This methodology uses a reverse quantification and develops tools to enable the NPS to ensure that if withdrawals must occur, the adverse impacts would be minimized by prescribing or constraining the timing, magnitude, and duration of withdrawal. The reverse quantification, well-suited for unregulated rivers such as the Yampa, strives to protect all flows minus extractions from daily flows based on three parameters: 1) a minimum flow, below which water diversion does not occur; 2) the percentage of the flow above the minimum that is diverted; 3) the maximum daily flow that is diverted. We apply 350 flow extraction scenarios, each defined by a unique set of parameters, to the 99 historic annual hydrographs of daily flows (water year (WY) 1922–2020), and to the more recent 20 years (WY 2001–2020). We also consider how hydrologic year type (wet to dry) influences the flow volume extracted and impact to the resource. Recognizing the seasonal differences in flow and ecological and geomorphic response, we divide each year into four distinct seasonal periods and use relations from the literature between flow, channel change, riparian vegetation and fish behavior, physiology, and habitat to define hydrograph and resource metrics used to evaluate impacts to the resource. While our analysis demonstrates that all withdrawals will damage the resource, extractions during the Early Runoff Period (March 15 – April 30) are least detrimental and extractions during the Summer Baseflow Period (July 16 – October 31) are most detrimental. We find that most aspects of the resource are more sensitive to increasing extractions during drier years than during wetter years. Recent decades have seen a shift towards more frequent drier years, resulting in less water in most periods. As a result, our analysis suggests that extractions in recent decades would have had a greater impact on the resource when compared to similar extractions during the full historical record. Finally, we demonstrate how the NPS may use these results to develop limits on extractions for resource protection.

Released August 31, 2024 06:43 EST

2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (129)

Nicolas Wahde Mathews, Ben Leshchinksy, Benjamin B. Mirus, Michael J. Olsen, Adam M. Booth

Released August 31, 2024 06:38 EST

2024, Nature-Based Solutions (6)

Stephan Bitterwolf, Borja Reguero, Curt Storlazzi, Michael W. Beck

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Released August 30, 2024 12:45 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2023-1053

Phillip J. van Mantgem, Micah C. Wright, Karen M. Thorne, Jill Beckmann, Kevin Buffington, Lyndsay L. Rankin, Audrey Colley, Eamon A. Engber

The 2018 Carr Fire burned more than 90 percent of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, with much of the park burning at high severity. California yellow pine and mixed conifer forests are not well adapted to large, high-severity fires, and forest recovery after these events may be problematic. Large, high-severity fire patches pose difficulties for recruitment with interiors that are long distances from potential seed trees and may develop fuel structures that can promote further high-severity fire. This report details patterns of forest structure derived from field plots measured 2–3 years after the Carr Fire, providing a characterization of immediate fire effects. We coupled these observations with remotely sensed information, including data collected from unoccupied aircraft system surveys. The remotely sensed data were used to depict erosion after the Carr Fire as well as to create a high-resolution land cover classification map, a debris flow risk map and hazard assessment, and a post-fire canopy vegetation loss map. Results indicated high levels of tree mortality after the Carr Fire, including high-value old growth forest stands, supporting remotely sensed assessments of fire severity. The high-resolution tree mortality model also aligned well with other remotely sensed estimates of immediate burn severity. Results of the land cover classification illustrated the high percentage of dead vegetation remaining in the understory and canopy 8 months post-fire. Changes in vegetation height identified areas with canopy vegetation loss from 1- to 8-months post-fire. Pairing the post-fire debris accumulation with debris flow probabilities may identify high-risk debris flow areas. The results of this study will help inform future decisions concerning wildland fire and vegetation management strategies at Whiskeytown National Recreation Area and are broadly relevant for management in the aftermath of large, high-severity fires in mixed, dry coniferous forests in the western United States.

Released August 30, 2024 11:32 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3035

Katherine J. Chase, DeAnn Dutton, William B. Hamilton, Seth A. Siefken, Cassidy Vander Voort, Aroscott Whiteman

Extraordinary floods surged down the Yellowstone River and its tributaries in northwestern Wyoming and south-central Montana on June 13–15, 2022. During the flood, U.S. Geological Survey staff worked to maintain real-time data from streamgages by making field measurements of streamflow and repairing damaged equipment while communicating the latest streamflow information with the public and with local, State, and Federal agencies. After the flood, staff surveyed high-water marks, computed peak streamflow at streamgages unreachable during the flood, and updated flood-frequency estimates for streamgages in the Upper Yellowstone River Basin. Streamflows were the highest on record at 17 streamgages in the Upper Yellowstone River Basin. River stages were highest on record at most of those streamgages. The flood-related data and analyses are summarized in this fact sheet.

Released August 30, 2024 11:04 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3024

Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons, Jeffrey J. Danielson, W. Matthew Cushing

Introduction

National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Biscayne National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Released August 30, 2024 09:49 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1050

Ling Zhu, Hongqing Wang, Qin Chen, William Capurso, Michael Noll

The Shinnecock Indian Nation on Long Island, New York, faces challenges of shoreline retreat, saltwater intrusion, and flooding of the Tribal lands under changing climate and rising sea level. However, understanding of the dynamics of tidal circulation and waves and their impacts on the Shinnecock Indian Nation’s shoreline remains limited. This numerical study employs the integrated modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW and the spectral-wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to investigate the circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation. The results of the 1-year long simulation indicate the majority of wind waves approach the Shinnecock Nation shorelines at normal wave angles, with yearly averaged offshore wave height of around 0.2 meter, maximum wave height reaching 0.65 meter, and yearly averaged offshore wave power of approximately 50 watts per meter. Boulders, acting as natural barriers, have been placed along the shoreline to reduce erosive wave forcing. Simulation results indicate the boulders to the north end effectively attenuate wave energy and reduce annual wave power, while the boulders near the two tidal ponds adjacent to the Tribal cemetery only have a slight influence on wave energy. There are large spatial variabilities in wave attenuation and current velocity reduction by the boulders. The model framework developed in this study can be utilized for the optimal design of nature-based solutions, guiding decisions on the placement of living shoreline structures and determining their optimal size. This study further identifies data and knowledge gaps as well as future research opportunities that can enhance the performance of numerical models and contribute to the scientific understanding of coastal processes and facilitate the optimal design of hybrid living shorelines in the future to achieve the maximum protective efficacy. This research can help to inform strategies for safeguarding vulnerable coastal communities and promoting resilience and sustainability of shoreline along the Shinnecock Indian Nation.

Released August 30, 2024 09:00 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5104

Jason R. Sorenson, James M. Pease, Jeremy K. Foote, Ann T. Chalmers, David H. Ainley, Clayton J. Williams

Excess nutrient loading and other factors are driving eutrophication and other negative effects on water-quality conditions in Lake Champlain and other receiving waters in Vermont. Two common best management practices were evaluated to determine how these practices can be optimized by targeting maintenance and operation to align better with seasonally driven needs, specifically to help municipalities remove a greater proportion of seasonal leaves and organic debris, reduce nutrient loading, and achieve water-quality goals.

To characterize solid materials typically removed by the municipal BMPs of catch-basin (CB) cleaning and street cleaning (SC), subsamples of CB and SC materials were collected each month from nine participating municipalities in central and northwestern Vermont between September 2017 and November 2018. Monthly and seasonal composites of CB and SC samples were created from the subsamples of available materials from all municipalities. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (P), and separated into three particle-size fractions. Distribution of particle-size fractions was similar between CB and SC as both practices generally collect the coarser fraction of solid materials (greater than 125 micrometers in diameter). In the fall, however, the range of the coarser fraction of materials increased. This is attributed to the ability of SC to collect leaves and other light organic materials that commonly pass through a CB system designed to trap heavier materials.

Total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total P concentrations were highest in the catch-basin samples in the fall of 2017, and concentrations in the SC samples were highest in the fall of 2018. The collection of fewer samples in 2017 may account for some of the variability between fall 2017 and fall 2018 results. A subset of SC samples collected from piles representing specific street-cleaning routes in September and November 2018 were also analyzed. Materials collected in November were dominated by leaves, and the concentrations of the analyzed species of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in some samples were more than double those in samples collected on the same street-cleaning routes in September.

The Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation and the University of Vermont developed estimates of load-reduction credits for CB and SC practices based on a policy developed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources that determined the potential for credits associated with leaf-removal activities. This process also considered BMPs that were initiated during the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Lake Champlain Basin Total Maximum Daily Load monitoring period (2000 to 2009) and adapted the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policies to apply to existing SC routes in the cooperating Vermont municipalities that possessed at least 17 percent tree cover. This exercise demonstrated that applying the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policy to existing street-cleaning routes possessing 17 percent or more tree cover would result in reductions in total P loads up to 65 percent of mandated target reductions, and about a 25 percent reduction on average.

Continuous simulations of stormwater runoff volume, and of loads of suspended sediments and total P, also were created for Englesby Brook Basin, an urbanized basin in Burlington and South Burlington that drains to Lake Champlain. Although the basin is more developed than the average of the nine cooperating municipalities, streamflow and P loading data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey were available to evaluate model performance. Simulations based on a year of average climatic conditions projected potential small reductions in total P of 0.08 to 0.10 percent as a result of CB cleaning and SC practices. Simulated weekly SC practices, however, reduced street-solid loads by as much as 7 percent. When the proportion of total P seen in fall SC materials collected in Vermont was applied to these simulated street-solid loads, estimated reductions of total P were about 29 percent. The combination of analytical results, estimated load-reduction credits, and simulated reductions indicate that targeted increases of SC activities to reduce leaf loading in the fall have the potential to reduce loading to receiving waters and could help regulated communities meet their water-quality goals.

Released August 30, 2024 07:40 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1053

John C. Nelson, Richard A. Rebich, Kathi Jo Jankowski, Thea M. Edwards, James H. Larson, Dale M. Robertson, Lori A. Sprague, Sarah M. Stackpoole, Katherine M. Summers, Peter J. Cinotto, Paul H. Rydlund, Christopher J. Churchill, Wesley M. Daniel, Owen P. McKenna, Beth Middleton, Jacoby Carter, Stephen B. Hartley, Jeffrey W. Frey, Kelly L. Warner

The U.S. Geological Survey hosted a Mississippi River Science Forum with Federal agencies; Tribal, State, and local governments located in States that border the Mississippi River; academia; and other interested stakeholders. The purpose of the forum was to share current (2023) science; identify data gaps and areas of concern; and to prioritize next steps needed to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters along the Mississippi River. The forum was a directive for the U.S. Geological Survey in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 (Public Law 117—103, 136 Stat. 49).

Participants and stakeholders that attended the Mississippi River Science Forum indicated the following.

• A Mississippi River Science Committee could bring together the voices of all stakeholders, including Federal agencies; State, local, and Tribal governments; academia; nongovernmental organizations; business and industry; and other interested parties. This committee would also work with (but not replace) Mississippi River Basin entities already in place and establish effective communication to identify and address Basin-wide management needs and to develop holistic solutions for those needs.
• A Mississippi River science plan could expand on the science and data gaps identified by the Forum. This plan could guide data collection and help resource managers develop and implement restoration initiatives within the Basin, recognizing that addressing these needs will require substantial resources.
• The science committee, working with other entities in the basin, should develop data standards for the Mississippi River Basin that allow stakeholders to utilize comparable data to address their needs. These standards would include data findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability.

This report highlights data gaps and areas of concern discussed during the forum, and it identifies needs to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters with specific emphasis on data collection and measurement, and scientific investigation. The report also summarizes stakeholder input and feedback and outlines next steps identified by forum participants.

Released August 29, 2024 13:05 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5070

Taylor J. Dudunake

To assess changes in substrate conditions and the efficacy of artificially placed substrates at select sites on the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, completed repeat bathymetric, velocimetric, and underwater videography surveys. Collectively, three project sites throughout the Kootenai River make up the Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project (SEPP), an effort intended to improve spawning and egg incubation viability at locations identified to be aquatic habitat limited for the endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus). Following the placement of coarse substrates at each site, bathymetric, velocimetric, and underwater videography data were collected from 2012 to 2022 to assess the role of deposition and erosion on maintaining suitable white sturgeon spawning and incubation substrates. Minimal erosion and deposition occurred at all Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project sites, according to interannual and intra-annual net volumetric changes between bathymetric surveys. Depending on the timing of bathymetric surveys relative to the annual peak streamflow conditions, isolated locations of deposition or erosion were observed at each site and the potential for deposition or erosion was supported by measured mean depth-averaged velocities. This study concluded that variability of deposition and scour were common at each site throughout the monitoring period and may be attributed to fluctuations in streamflow. Repeat bathymetric, underwater videography, and velocity mapping surveys were used to verify the interstitial spaces and surfaces of substrates at each SEPP site remained free of fine sediments for intervals longer than a year but were susceptible to deposition between high streamflow events.

Released August 29, 2024 07:24 EST

2024, Wetlands (44)

Melinda Martinez, Robert Bordelon, Beth Middleton, Jorge A. Villa, Hojeong Kang, Inyoung Jang

Released August 29, 2024 07:12 EST

2024, Coastal Engineering (193)

Mark L. Buckley, Daniel Buscombe, Justin J. Birchler, Margaret Louise Palmsten, Eric Swanson, Jenna A. Brown, Michael Christopher Itzkin, Curt Storlazzi, Shawn R. Harrison

Released August 28, 2024 09:57 EST

2024, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (29)

Holly Susan Embke, Abigail Lynch, T. Douglas Beard, Jr.

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Released August 28, 2024 07:19 EST

2024, Forest Ecology and Management (571)

Kevin G. Willson, Ellis Margolis, Mathew D. Hurteau

Released August 28, 2024 06:45 EST

2024, Journal of Environmental Management (369)

Tamara Wilson, Paul Selmants, Ryan M Boynton, James H. Thorne, N. Van Schmidt, Timothy Thomas

Released August 27, 2024 08:12 EST

2024, Preprint

Michael Frederick Meyer, Salvatore G.P. Virdis, Xiao Yang, Mattew R. Brousil, Ryan P. McClure, Sapna Sharma, R. Iestyn Woolway, Alli N. Cramer, Jianning Ren, Stephen L. Katz, Stephanie E. Hampton, Haoran Shi

A changing climate and increasing human population necessitate understanding global freshwater availability. To enable assessment of lake water variability from local-to-global and monthly-to-decadal scales, we extended the Global Lake area, Climate, and Population (GLCP) dataset, which contains monthly lake surface area for 1.42 million lakes with paired basin-level climate and population data from 1995 through 2020. In comparison to the previous version of the GLCP, the extended version is monthly and includes information on lake ice cover as well as basin-level snow area, humidity, longwave and shortwave radiation, and cloud cover. The extended GLCP emphasizes FAIR data principles by expanding its scripting repository and maintaining unique HydroLAKES identifiers, which enables the GLCP to be joined with other HydroLAKES-derived products. Compared to the original version, the extended GLCP contains a richer suite of variables that enable disparate analyses of lake water trends at broad spatial and temporal scales.

Released August 27, 2024 07:07 EST

2024, Seismological Research Letters (95) 2722-2744

Jeremy D. Pesicek, Trond Ryberg

Released August 27, 2024 06:51 EST

2024, Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface (129)

Helen Willemien Dow, Amy E. East, Joel B. Sankey, Jonathan Warrick, Jaime Kostelnik, Donald N. Lindsay, Jason W. Kean

Released August 26, 2024 15:00 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3028

Emma I. Dietrich, Sarah K. Carter, Tait K. Rutherford, Megan A. Gilbert, Travis S. Haby, Aaron N. Johnston, Samuel E. Jordan, Nathan J. Kleist, Richard J. Lehrter, Elroy H. Masters, Claudia Mengelt, Alexandra L. Stoneburner, Elisabeth C. Teige, John C. Tull, Sarah E. Whipple, David J. A. Wood

The U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service partnered to develop a new type of science product: the structured science synthesis. Structured science syntheses are peer-reviewed reports that synthesize science information about a priority resource management issue on public lands. Structured science syntheses are developed explicitly to facilitate the application of science to decision making. Key characteristics of structured science syntheses include that they are coproduced with resource managers, developed using clear, repeatable methods and designed for ease of use. The syntheses include different types of science information needed for analyses completed under the National Environmental Policy Act.

Released August 26, 2024 13:34 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1015

Barbara E. Kus, Alexandra Houston, Kristine L. Preston

Executive Summary

The Coastal California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica californica: “gnatcatcher”) is a resident species restricted to coastal sage scrub habitat in southern California. Listed as federally threatened, the gnatcatcher is subject to multiple threats, including habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation, particularly in association with the increasing frequency of large wildfires. The California Gnatcatcher is a focal species under several habitat conservation plans and is monitored to determine population trends and evaluate the success of the plans in protecting the species.

Historically, gnatcatcher monitoring has been limited in geographic scope and has used differing methodologies, limiting the extent to which findings can be generalized across larger spatial scales and multiple populations. In 2015, we completed the first of an intended series of surveys following a standardized protocol designed to address two broad objectives. First, we sought to determine gnatcatcher occupancy at the regional scale, including habitat from throughout the species’ range in southern California, as well as in two subregions: Orange County and San Diego County, to address specific management objectives within those jurisdictions. In addition, we collected vegetation data to better understand gnatcatcher habitat associations that affect occupancy. In a parallel objective, we evaluated the effect of fire on gnatcatchers and their habitat by comparing occupancy and vegetation characteristics across sites varying in the length of time since the last fire. Data collected in 2020 allowed us to expand the study to include analyses of colonization (sites unoccupied in one year and occupied the next) and extinction (sites occupied in one year but not the next).

In 2020, we surveyed 327 regional points and 180 subregional points each in Orange and San Diego Counties. In addition, we surveyed 95–106 points within 4 postfire categories based on the year of the last fire at each point: before or during 2002 (“unburned”), 2003–06, 2007–10, and 2011–14. We surveyed for gnatcatchers during three area searches centered on each point at 2-week intervals commencing in mid-March. Vegetation data were collected during May–June using a modified point-intercept method along fixed transects.

Shrub and tree cover at our plots was dominated by California sagebrush (Artemisia californica), California buckwheat (Eriogonum fasciculatum), laurel sumac (Malosma laurina), sage (including Salvia mellifera and S. leucophylla), and sunflowers (including Encelia californica, E. farinosa, and Bahiopsis laciniata); however, most of the vegetation at plots consisted of non-native grass and herbaceous plants, indicating a high level of disturbance associated with fire. We documented vegetation differences at the subregional scale indicative of differences in fire history: in Orange County, overall shrub/tree cover was higher and herbaceous cover lower than in San Diego, where three large fires had burned within 17 years of this study. Both woody and herbaceous cover increased between 2016 and 2020 at the regional and two subregional scales, likely a response to above-average precipitation during 2 years preceding the 2020 surveys. Herbaceous vegetation also increased at postfire points; however, woody vegetation cover changed little between 2016 and 2020.

We modeled the effects of vegetation and physical (elevation, distance to Pacific coast, slope) covariates on gnatcatcher occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in the regional, subregional, and postfire datasets. Cover of California sagebrush was the strongest predictor of gnatcatcher occupancy and appeared in the top models for every dataset. California buckwheat was another strong positive predictor of gnatcatcher occupancy in all datasets. Cover of sunflowers was a positive predictor of occupancy in the Orange County subregion, and both sunflowers and sage were positive predictors of occupancy at postfire points. In contrast, laurel sumac was negatively related to gnatcatcher occupancy in postfire habitats, with occupancy unlikely when sumac exceeded 50 percent cover. Herbaceous vegetation, including invasive grass, negatively affected gnatcatcher occupancy regionwide.

Covariates that were strong positive predictors of occupancy were also positive predictors of colonization and (or) negative predictors of extinction, and vice versa. Outside of the positive effects of California sagebrush and California buckwheat, and the negative effect of total herbaceous cover, we identified few covariates influencing colonization. In contrast, we identified many more predictors of extinction, including cover of laurel sumac and grass, which increased extinction risk, and cover of California sagebrush, sunflowers, and bare ground, along with time since last fire, which reduced extinction risk.

We used our modelled estimates of colonization and extinction probabilities to derive occupancy in 2020 based on starting occupancy in 2016. Gnatcatcher occupancy increased in 2020 at regional and subregional scales and in unburned habitat, growing by 19–35 percent since 2016. Among burned sites, occupancy tripled from 2016 to 2020 at points burned during 2011–14 but was unchanged at the 2007–10 postfire points and declined by 28 percent at points burned in 2003–06. The slow recovery of the gnatcatcher population in this latter category, which makes up 16 percent of the suitable habitat in San Diego County, is a matter of conservation concern warranting further attention.

Collectively, our rangewide results reveal a widespread and long-term effect of wildfire on California Gnatcatcher habitat, particularly in San Diego County. These data provide a baseline from which future monitoring can be used to evaluate changes in habitat condition over time and to improve our understanding of the factors and processes influencing gnatcatcher occupancy.

Released August 26, 2024 13:05 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Map 3524

Michael H. Trippi, James L. Coleman, Robert T. Ryder

Introduction

Geologic cross section N–N′ is the sixth in a series of geologic cross sections constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey to document and improve understanding of the geologic framework and petroleum systems of the Appalachian basin. Cross section N–N′ provides a regional view of the structural and stratigraphic framework of the Appalachian basin in the Valley and Ridge province in western and central Alabama; it spans approximately 69 miles (mi) (111 kilometers [km]).

This geologic cross section is a companion to geologic cross sections E–E′, D–D′, C–C′, I–I′, and A–A′ that are located approximately 350 to 550 mi (563 to 885 km) to the northeast. Cross section N–N' complements earlier geologic cross sections through the Alabama part of the Appalachian basin. Although some of the other cross sections show more structural and stratigraphic detail, they are of more limited extent geographically and stratigraphically.

Cross section N–N′ contains information that is useful for evaluating energy resources in the Appalachian basin. Although the Appalachian basin petroleum systems are not shown on the cross section, many of their key elements (such as source rocks, reservoir rocks, seals, and traps) can be inferred from lithologic units, unconformities, and geologic structures shown on the cross section. Other aspects of petroleum systems (such as the timing of petroleum generation and petroleum migration pathways) may be evaluated by burial history, thermal history, and fluid flow models based on what is shown on the cross section. In addition, cross section N–N′ may be used as a reconnaissance tool to identify plausible geologic structures and strata for the subsurface storage of liquid waste or for the sequestration of carbon dioxide.

Released August 26, 2024 12:15 EST

2024, Circular 1542

Chris Poland, Jonathan D. Bray, Laurie Johnson, Sissy Nikolaou, Ellen Rathje, Brian Sherrod

Introduction

This report presents a plan supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) to coordinate domestic and international post-earthquake investigations (herein called “the Plan”). Post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations are undertaken to capture critical information to understand the causes and impacts of the event, lessons from which can substantially improve the Nation’s resilience after future earthquakes. NEHRP is the Federal Government’s coordinated nationwide program to reduce risks to life and property from earthquakes. The Plan describes the activation and coordination of the four designated NEHRP Agencies in the Federal Government: Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Plan also describes coordination between NEHRP Agencies and other organizations that may participate in pre-event and post-earthquake investigations, including non-NEHRP Federal agencies; State, regional, local, Tribal, and territorial agencies; domestic nongovernmental organizations; academic institutions and affiliated organizations; private companies; foreign governmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations; and international organizations. The Plan delineates the coordination of NEHRP post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations to document the direct, indirect, and cascading physical and societal impacts from fault rupture and ground shaking hazards and from secondary hazards such as landslides, liquefaction, and tsunamis. In addition, the Plan identifies pre-event activities necessary to ensure that post-earthquake investigations are executed effectively. The USGS is the lead NEHRP Agency for activating and coordinating NEHRP post-earthquake investigations and for implementing this Plan. The USGS also leads coordination of the NEHRP Agencies in completing the pre-event activities identified in the Plan. The Plan has new information and supersedes USGS Circular 1242, “The Plan to Coordinate NEHRP Post-Earthquake Investigations,” which was published in 2003. This second-generation Plan was developed with the assistance of the Applied Technology Council (ATC) of Redwood City, California, under USGS contract 140G0121P0309, ATC-155. A 17-member Project Review Panel provided guidance on plan development, and input was solicited from subject matter experts representing key stakeholder groups and from participants at a public workshop.

Released August 26, 2024 10:29 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5078

Thomas J. Williams, Greg S. Totzke

The Kansas River is an essential water resource that provides drinking water to more than 950,000 people in northeastern Kansas. Water suppliers that rely on the Kansas River as a water-supply source use physical and chemical water-treatment strategies to remove contaminants before distribution. Water District No. 1 of Johnson County, Kansas (WaterOne), is the largest water supplier in the State and uses the Kansas and Missouri Rivers as water-supply sources to provide drinking water to the Kansas City metropolitan area. WaterOne has been using ozone disinfection as a primary water-treatment strategy since the summer of 2020. Water suppliers that rely on ozone disinfection have become increasingly concerned with the presence of elevated dissolved bromide (the negatively charged form of bromine; hereafter referred to as “bromide”) concentrations in their water-supply source. Ozone disinfection of source water containing elevated concentrations of bromide can lead to the formation of bromate, a regulated disinfection byproduct and probable carcinogen. Real-time computations of bromide concentrations upstream from the WaterOne source-water intake in the Kansas River can be used to assist WaterOne with proactive adjustment of water-treatment strategies. These computations can also be used to advance understanding of hydrologic processes affecting ozone disinfection and formation of bromate.

This report documents the development of the surrogate-regression model that computes bromide concentrations in real time at De Soto, Kansas, and characterizes daily and monthly bromide concentrations at this location during the study period. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with WaterOne, collected specific conductance and discrete bromide sample data at the USGS streamgage Kansas River at De Soto, Kans. (06892350; hereafter referred to as “De Soto”), during January 2021 through October 2023 to develop a surrogate-regression model using ordinary least-squares regression that computes bromide concentrations at De Soto, which is about 15 miles upstream from the WaterOne source-water intake in the Kansas River. Specific conductance explained about 85 percent of the variance in bromide concentrations at De Soto during the study period. The surrogate-regression model documented in this report estimated that bromide concentrations at De Soto were likely to exceed the WaterOne water-treatment level of concern (150 micrograms per liter [μg/L]) when specific conductance was greater than or equal to about 930 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. Surrogate-regression model computations of bromide concentrations documented in this report are available at the USGS National Real-Time Water-Quality website (https://nrtwq.usgs.gov/).

Bromide concentrations in discrete samples ranged from 31.9 to 251 μg/L and exceeded the water-treatment level of concern in about 34 percent of the 41 samples collected at De Soto during January 2021 through October 2023. Computed daily bromide concentrations ranged from 38.2 to 277 μg/L and exceeded the water-treatment level of concern about 46 percent of the time during January 2021 through October 2023. Generally, an inverse relation was observed between bromide and streamflow during the study period. Higher bromide concentrations were observed during September through February, and lower bromide concentrations were observed during March through August. Seasonal median bromide concentrations were significantly different in all pairwise seasonal combinations, except for summer versus spring. Computed median bromide concentrations were highest during winter, followed by fall, then spring and summer.

Released August 26, 2024 09:01 EST

2024, Conservation Biology

Molly Bletz, Evan H. Campbell Grant, Graziella Vittoria DiRenzo

Finding effective pathogen mitigation strategies is one of the biggest challenges humans face today. In the context of wildlife, emerging infectious diseases have repeatedly caused widespread host morbidity and population declines of numerous taxa. In areas yet unaffected by a pathogen, a proactive management approach has the potential to minimize or prevent host mortality. However, typically critical information on disease dynamics in a novel host system is lacking, empirical evidence on efficacy of management interventions is limited, and there is a lack of validated predictive models. As such, quantitative support for identifying effective management interventions is largely absent, and the opportunity for proactive management is often missed. We considered the potential invasion of the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), whose expected emergence in North America poses a severe threat to hundreds of salamander species in this global salamander biodiversity hotspot. We developed and parameterized a dynamic multistate occupancy model to forecast host and pathogen occurrence, following expected emergence of the pathogen, and evaluated the response of salamander populations to different management scenarios. Our model forecasted that taking no action is expected to be catastrophic to salamander populations. Proactive action was predicted to maximize host occupancy outcomes relative to wait-and-see reactive management, thus providing quantitative support for proactive management opportunities. The eradication of Bsal was unlikely under all the evaluated management options. Contrary to our expectations, even early pathogen detection had little effect on Bsal or host occupancy outcomes. Our results provide quantitative support that proactive management is the optimal strategy for promoting persistence of disease-threatened salamander populations. Our approach fills a critical gap by defining a framework for evaluating management options prior to pathogen invasion and can thus serve as a template for addressing novel disease threats that jeopardize wildlife and human health.

Released August 26, 2024 07:01 EST

2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (129)

Jacob Bryson Woodard, Sean Richard LaHusen, Benjamin B. Mirus, Katherine R. Barnhart

Released August 25, 2024 08:25 EST

2024, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Gary N. Neuderfer, Lance E. Durfey, Michael T. Calloway, Stephen J. Smith, Justin Schueller

Previous research evaluated the toxicity of the lampricide 4-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)phenol (TFM) and the combination of TFM with 1 % niclosamide (TFM:1%Nic) to multiple non-target species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, few toxicity studies have been conducted for species of concern in Lake Champlain (NY and VT). We conducted 12-hour flow-through toxicity tests with 4 species of native mussels, 6 species of fish, and 1 amphibian species. All tests included exposure of invasive larval Petromyzon marinus (sea lamprey) and were conducted with concentrations that bracketed the predicted minimum lethal concentration required to control larval sea lamprey. Mussel species’ NOEC, LOEC, LC₂₅, and LC₅₀ values ranged from 1.33 to 2.12, 1.71–2.66, 1.75–3.05, and 2.03–4.84 times field determined LC_99.9s for sea lamprey (×SL_LC99.9) in TFM-only toxicity tests, and from 1.36 to 1.70, 1.68–2.03, 1.86–2.10, and 2.35–2.68 × SL_LC99.9 for TFM:1%Nic toxicity tests, respectively. Fish species NOEC, LOEC, LC₂₅, and LC₅₀ values ranged from 0.60 to 1.89, 0.73–2.13, 0.72–2.11, and 0.76–2.18 × SL_LC99.9 in TFM-only toxicity tests, and from 0.64 to 2.48, 0.85–3.10, 0.74–3.05, and 0.78–3.16 × SL_LC99.9 for TFM:1%Nic toxicity tests, respectively. Amphibian species NOEC, LOEC, LC₂₅, and LC₅₀ values ranged from 0.74 to 0.75, 0.85–0.95, 0.83–0.87, and 0.85–0.91 × SL_LC99.9 in TFM-only toxicity tests, and from 0.63 to 0.65, 0.80–0.88, 0.77–0.82, and 0.78–0.87 × SL_LC99.9 for TFM:1%Nic toxicity tests, respectively. Generally, mussel species were tolerant, fish sensitivities were variable, and the amphibian species was sensitive to TFM and TFM:1%Nic.

Released August 24, 2024 09:10 EST

2024, Scientific Reports (14)

Rebecca K. McKee, Paul J. Taillie, Kristen Hart, Christopher L. Lopez, Adam Sanjar, Robert A. McCleery

Mid-sized mammals (i.e., mesomammals) fulfill important ecological roles, serving as essential scavengers, predators, pollinators, and seed dispersers in the ecosystems they inhabit. Consequently, declines in mesomammal populations have the potential to alter ecological processes and fundamentally change ecosystems. However, ecosystems characterized by high functional redundancy, where multiple species can fulfil similar ecological roles, may be less impacted by the loss of mesomammals and other vertebrates. The Greater Everglades Ecosystem in southern Florida is a historically biodiverse region that has recently been impacted by multiple anthropogenic threats, most notably the introduction of the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus). Since pythons became established, mesomammal populations have become greatly reduced. To assess whether these declines in mesomammals have affected two critical ecosystem functions—scavenging and frugivory—we conducted experiments in areas where mesomammals were present and absent. We did not observe significant differences in scavenging or frugivory efficiency in areas with and without mesomammals, but we did observe significant differences in the communities responsible for scavenging and frugivory. Despite the observed evidence of redundancy, the changes in community composition could potentially lead to indirect consequences on processes like seed dispersal and disease dynamics within this ecosystem, emphasizing the need for further study.

Released August 24, 2024 08:47 EST

2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (129)

James Burkhardt Biemiller, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Dave May, Lydia M. Staisch

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Released August 24, 2024 06:47 EST

2024, Biodiversity and Conservation

Jessica E. Shyvers, Nathan D. Van Schmidt, D. Joanne Saher, Julie A. Heinrichs, Michael S. O'Donnell, Cameron L. Aldridge

Released August 23, 2024 14:10 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1006

Suellen Lynn, Michelle Treadwell, Barbara E. Kus

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 4 and July 12, 2022. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 571 territorial male vireos and 14 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 90 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 7 of the 11 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 90 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 73 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 81 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 61 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired.

The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP increased 4 percent from 2021 to 2022. In three core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in five core survey area drainages, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least two between 2021 and 2022. The increase in the number of vireo territories on MCBCP was consistent with population changes at the lower San Luis Rey River (7-percent increase), but not with Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton (10-percent decrease).

A wildfire in July 2021 burned approximately 22 hectares of vireo habitat on the Santa Margarita River. There was no difference in the number of vireo territories within the fire perimeter before the fire (three territories in 2021) and after the fire (three territories in 2022).

Most core-area vireos (52 percent, including transients) used mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 8 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores (Platanus racemosa) or Fremont cottonwoods (Populus fremontii). Riparian scrub composed of mule fat (Baccharis salicifolia), sandbar willow (S. exigua), or blue elderberry (Sambucus mexicana) was used at 37 percent of vireo territories. Upland scrub was used by 2 percent of the vireos, and 1 percent of vireo territories were in drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and sycamore.

In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the third year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps.

We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of surface water enhancement by seep pumps installed along the Santa Margarita River. Total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Conversely, there was more non-native vegetation cover above 2 m (from 2 to 4 m) at Reference sites than at Seep sites. Soil moisture was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites and decreased with increasing distance from the seep outlets. Soil moisture was positively correlated with total foliage cover and woody cover at most height categories. Soil moisture was not correlated with total herbaceous cover at any height category, although it was positively correlated with native herbaceous cover from 1 to 2 m and negatively correlated with non-native cover from 2 to 4 m. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was positively correlated with woody cover from 0 to 2 m but negatively correlated with herbaceous cover from 0 to 2 m. The number of fledglings produced per pair was negatively correlated with herbaceous and non-native vegetation cover below 2 m.

The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. By the end of 2021, 978 Least Bell’s Vireos had been color banded on Base. In 2022, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 135 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2022 season. Birds banded included 4 adult vireos and 131 juveniles. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the left leg.

There were 43 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2022 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2022. Of these vireos, 39 were banded on Base, 3 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old.

Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival for adults and first-year birds was lowest from 2020 to 2021 and highest from 2012 to 2013. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites was not affected by whether they were originally banded at a Seep versus Reference site.

Most of the returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults detected in 2021 and 2022, 89 percent (92 percent of males; 67 percent of females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2022 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2021 was 1.6±1.8 km.

Vireo territory density at the Seep and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. Although vireo territory density at Seep sites appeared greater than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed, the difference was not significant.

We monitored Least Bell’s Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. We monitored vireo nesting activity at 25 territories in 2 Seep sites and 25 territories in 2 Reference sites between March 31 and July 28. All territories except one were occupied by pairs, and all were “fully monitored,” meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (49 in Seep sites and 48 in Reference sites) were monitored.

Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep and Reference sites (2.7 and 3.3 young fledged per pair, respectively), although more pairs at Reference sites than Seep sites fledged at least one young (96 versus 76 percent, respectively). There were no other differences in breeding productivity between Seep site pairs and Reference site pairs. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2022 was not related to whether the territory was in a Seep versus a Reference site. Completed nests at the Seep sites had similar fledging success as nests at Reference sites in 2022. At Seep sites, 56 percent of nests fledged young whereas 67 percent of Reference nests successfully fledged young. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 80 percent and 73 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes.

Vireos placed their nests in 12 plant species in 2022. We detected no differences in nest placement between successful and unsuccessful vireo nests or between Seep and Reference sites.

Precipitation appeared to play a role in fluctuations in the vireo population on MCBCP; however, it could not be directly linked to annual vireo breeding productivity. One possible factor that may be confounding the relationship between vireo breeding productivity and precipitation may be nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) in the region, especially on the nearby San Luis Rey River.

Released August 23, 2024 10:32 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2023-1096

Suellen Lynn, Michelle Treadwell, Barbara E. Kus

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 5 and July 13, 2021. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed three to four times. We detected 551 territorial male vireos and 26 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 98 territorial male vireos were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 8 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 89 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 70 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 75 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired.

The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 18 percent from 2020 to 2021. The number of territories in all but two core survey area drainages decreased by one or more between 2020 and 2021. The decrease in vireo numbers on MCBCP (18 percent) was consistent with population changes in surrounding areas, including the lower San Luis Rey River (24-percent decrease) and the middle San Luis Rey River (6-percent decrease).

Most core-area vireo territories (59 percent of males) were in willow (Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 7 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores (Platanus racemosa) or Fremont cottonwoods (Populus fremontii). Of all the territories surveyed, 25 percent were in riparian scrub dominated by mule fat (Baccharis salicifolia) or sandbar willow (S. exigua). Upland scrub was used by 8 percent of vireos; 1 percent of vireo territories were in non-native vegetation, and less than 1 percent of vireo territories were in alder or drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and sycamore.

In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the second year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps.

We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of a new water diversion dam that was completed in 2019 and two seep pumps that were installed to enhance surface water along the Santa Margarita River in 2019 and 2021. We measured higher total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) at Seep sites than at Reference sites and lower total vegetation cover above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Native herbaceous cover was also higher below 4 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Woody cover was lower above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Soil moisture did not differ between Seep and Reference sites.

The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. In 2021, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2021 season. Birds banded included 3 adult vireos and 161 juvenile vireos. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the right leg.

There were 52 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2021 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2021. Of these vireos, 45 were banded on Base, 6 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old.

Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a slightly but significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival of both adults and first-year birds was high from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013 and low from 2020 to 2021. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites ranged from 45 to 57 percent.

Most returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2020 and 2021, 84 percent (94 percent of males; no females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometer (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2021 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2020 was 1.1±0.7 km.

We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Vireos were monitored at two Seep sites and two Reference sites. Early in 2021, a seep was installed in a 2020 Reference site, which changed the status of this monitoring site from Reference to Seep.

Nesting activity was monitored between April 5 and July 22 in 50 territories within the Seep and Reference sites (25 at Seep sites and 25 at Reference sites). All territories, except one, were occupied by pairs and all were fully monitored, meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (42 in Seep sites and 55 in Reference sites) were monitored.

Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep site and Reference sites (3.6 and 3.4 young per pair, respectively), with 84 percent of Seep pairs and 88 percent of Reference pairs successfully fledging at least one young in 2021. Seep sites had a higher proportion of all eggs that hatched and also a higher proportion of nests with eggs that hatched than Reference sites. Seep sites and References sites had similar proportions of hatchlings that fledged and nests with hatchlings that fledged. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2021 was higher in Seep sites than in Reference sites. Completed nests at the Seep site were more likely to be successful than nests at Reference sites in 2021. At Seep sites, 75 percent of nests fledged young, whereas 53 percent of nests at Reference successfully fledged young. Vireos at Reference sites had to expend more energy in extra nest-building and egg-laying to produce a similar number of young as vireos at Seep sites. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 100 percent and 83 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes.

There were 11 plant species used as hosts for vireo nests in 2021. Successful vireo nests at Reference sites were further from the edge of host plants (closer to the center) and further from the edge of the nest plant clump than unsuccessful nests. Vireo nests at Seep sites were further from the edge of the host plant and the nest plant clump than vireo nests at Reference sites.

Released August 23, 2024 08:15 EST

2024, Ecological Solutions and Evidence (5)

Michael Whitby, M. Teague O'Mara, Cris D. Hein, Manuela Huso, Winifred F. Frick

1. There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging.
2. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta-regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species-specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) and silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans).
3. We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms⁻¹ increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms⁻¹, 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms⁻¹, 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver-haired bats: 32% per ms⁻¹, 95% CI: 3%–53%).
4. Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms⁻¹ cut-in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter-annual differences rather than inter-site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species-specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms⁻¹ curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver-haired bats.
5. Practical implication. curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

Released August 23, 2024 06:53 EST

2024, Conservation Science and Practice

Erin L. Koen, William Barichivich, Susan Walls

Released August 22, 2024 15:06 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1045

Ramon C. Naranjo, Anjela Bubiy

Residents of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, rely on the basin-fill alluvial aquifer underlying the valley for drinking water. Since the 1980s, groundwater levels and water-quality data have been collected to monitor the status of the aquifer system and to assist in planning efforts to address current (2024) and future demand. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Douglas County, Nevada, evaluated trends in water levels, nitrate, and arsenic concentrations from a network of monitoring and domestic wells in Carson Valley. This work also assessed the monitoring well network to determine the suitability of wells for characterizing the occurrence of arsenic in the groundwater. Monitoring of constituents, such as nitrate and arsenic concentrations, is needed to assess changes in contaminant distribution and to evaluate the effect that changing land use and groundwater pumping has on their occurrence and transport.

Results of the trend analysis indicate water levels are declining (p<0.05) in 17 of 26 selected monitoring wells (65 percent). Areas with the largest change in water levels, with more than 20 feet of declines, were within the community areas of Johnson Lane, Ruhenstroth, South Agricultural, East Valley, and Fish Springs. Variations in water levels measured in wells from the Central Agricultural, Minden, Foothill, Alpine County (one well), and Gardnerville Ranchos areas show periods of increase and decrease over time, but they also maintain long-term declining trends (p<0.05).

Increases in nitrate concentrations in groundwater samples collected from 9 out of 14 selected monitoring wells (64 percent) are statistically significant (p<0.05) within the Ruhenstroth, Gardnerville Ranchos, East Valley, Genoa, and Johnson Lane community areas. Samples collected from a well in Indian Hills/Jacks Valley indicated a decreasing trend in nitrate concentration over time. Nitrate concentrations in samples collected from wells in East Valley, Genoa, Johnson Lane, and Indian Hills/Jack Valley were consistently low (less than 3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) and stable. Nitrate concentrations from selected wells in Johnson Lane and Garnerville Ranchos exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (as nitrogen) and have trends that are increasing over time. In 2022, a sample collected from Johnson Lane had a concentration (7.3 mg/L) below the MCL with an increasing trend over time.

Temporal trend analyses for groundwater arsenic concentrations in Carson Valley could not be done because of a lack of temporal data. However, using available historical data, arsenic concentrations seem to be greater in groundwater from wells located on the eastern and northern areas of the valley than in wells located on the western or southern areas. Groundwater arsenic concentrations exceed 5 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in most samples collected from wells in Johnson Lane, Airport, Central Agricultural, and East Valley areas and in many cases exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MCL of 10 μg/L. Data indicate that groundwater from domestic wells screened at deeper intervals are likely more vulnerable to elevated arsenic concentrations than shallower wells.

A groundwater network evaluation for Carson Valley identified potential modifications in the sampling locations and frequency to better understand the effect of groundwater pumping in communities where municipal and domestic demand are greatest, potentially enhancing understanding of contaminant transport in these areas. Potential modifications to the active well network include reducing the frequency of sample collection from existing network wells (6 out of 11) that have consistently shown low and stable nitrate concentrations, adding wells in areas where data are sparse, and increasing the number of wells in areas with elevated groundwater nitrate concentrations. Including the analysis of arsenic in samples from the active groundwater monitoring well network will provide more detail on the temporal and spatial variability of arsenic concentrations.

A visualization tool for the Carson River Basin was developed to provide access to discrete and near real-time hydrologic and water-quality data. The Carson River Basin Hydro Mapper (CBH; U.S. Geological Survey, 2023b) shows active and historical discrete water levels measured by the USGS and the State of Nevada Division of Water Resources, discrete groundwater nitrate and arsenic concentration data collected by the USGS, near real-time streamflow, and surface water levels for select waterbodies. The hydrologic data in the CBH provides resource managers, the public, and the scientific community with an easily accessible tool to present and communicate the most up-to-date information available about local and basin-wide water resources.

Released August 22, 2024 12:35 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1027

Leslie Hsu, Emily G. Chapin, Theodore B. Barnhart, Amanda E. Cravens, Richard A. Erickson, Jason Ferrante, Aaron Fox, Nathaniel P. Hitt, Margaret Hunter, Katharine Kolb, Jared R. Peacock, Matthew D. Petkewich, Sasha C. Reed, Terry L. Sohl, Tanja N. Williamson

The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 12 projects funded in fiscal year 2020, outlining their goals, activities, and accomplishments.

Released August 22, 2024 10:17 EST

2024, International Journal of Wildland Fire (33)

Manuel K. Lopez, Ellis Margolis, Anne C. Tillery, S. Bassett, Alan Hook

Released August 22, 2024 10:09 EST

2024, Geophysical Research Letters (51)

Caelan Simeone, John C. Hammond, Stacey A. Archfield, Dan Broman, Laura Condon, Hisham Eldardiry, Carolyn G. Olson, Jen Steyaert

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

Released August 22, 2024 09:51 EST

2024, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Martin Albert Simonson, David Bunnell, Charles P. Madenjian, Kevin Keeler, Joseph Schmitt

The cisco Coregonus artedi is a coldwater fish that is distributed throughout much of Canada and the northern United States, including the Laurentian Great Lakes. Cisco historically supported large commercial fisheries in the Great Lakes during the late 1800s and early 1900s, but many populations declined and never recovered. Restoration efforts focusing on re-establishing cisco in the Great Lakes are underway, but increasing water temperatures may hinder these efforts. Therefore, we examined aerobic scope and thermal tolerance of allopatric cisco populations from different latitudes and habitats to determine if a southern latitude population (Crooked Lake, Indiana, USA) near the southern edge of cisco distribution was better adapted to withstand warmer water temperatures than a northern latitude population (Les Cheneaux Islands, Michigan, USA; Lake Huron). As expected, both stocks demonstrated increases in metabolic rates and absolute aerobic scope with increased temperature. Northern cisco had significantly lower aerobic scope compared to southern cisco at both treatment temperatures of 10 and 13 °C. Both cisco stocks had high thermal tolerances when challenged by temperatures increased to 20 and 23 °C but low tolerances at 26 °C. Cisco thermal tolerances increased with acclimation temperature, but we did not detect a difference in thermal tolerances between northern and southern cisco. Although southern cisco had higher capacity for aerobic metabolism, both stock sources had high thermal tolerances at the upper end of their thermal limits. Therefore, either population would be likely suitable for reintroduction into Great Lakes habitats, even with expected warming in the future.

Released August 22, 2024 08:35 EST

2024, JGR Biogeosciences (129)

Vijay P. Patil, Jack McFarland, Kimberly Wickland, Kristen L. Manies, Mark Winterstein, Teresa N. Hollingsworth, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Mark Waldrop

Decadal scale lake drying in interior Alaska results in lake margin colonization by willow shrub and graminoid vegetation, but the effects of these changes on plant production, biodiversity, soil properties, and soil microbial communities are not well known. We studied changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) storage, plant and microbial community composition, and soil microbial activities in drying and non-drying lakes in the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. Historic changes in lake area were determined using Landsat imagery. Results showed that SOC storage in drying lake margins declined by 0.13 kg C m⁻² yr⁻¹ over 30 years of exposure of lake sediments, with no significant change in soil N. Lake drying resulted in an increase in graminoid and shrub aboveground net primary production (ANPP, +3% yr⁻¹) with little change in plant functional composition. Increases in ANPP were similar in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to losses in SOC over a 30-year drying trend. Potential decomposition rates and soil enzyme activities were lower in drying lake margins compared to stable lake margins, possibly due to high salinities in drying lake margin soils. Microbial communities shifted in response to changing plant communities, although they still retained a legacy of the previous plant community. Understanding how changing lake hydrology impacts the ecology and biogeochemistry of lake margin terrestrial ecosystems is an underexamined phenomenon with large impacts to landscape processes.

Released August 22, 2024 06:48 EST

2024, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Beth C. Long, Peter B. Moyle, Matthew J. Young, Patrick K. Crain

Objective

The Redeye Bass Micropterus coosae is a piscivore introduced into California, which has become a threat to the state's endemic freshwater fishes. It has eliminated native fishes from the middle reaches of the Cosumnes River, our study stream, which is the largest stream without a major dam on its main stem in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River drainage, central California, USA. We thoroughly documented its novel life history and ecology in California to shed light on why it has been such a successful invader despite its relatively small native range.

Methods

Over 4000 stable carbon and nitrogen isotope samples were utilized to refine our understanding of fish trophic position within the river food web, along with a stable isotope mixing model that accounts for uncertainty in trophic enrichment data.

Result

Growth was slow, with an adult size range of 9–25 cm standard length (SL), although few were larger than 15-cm SL (5–6 years old). Stable isotope analyses showed that Redeye Bass dominate the river ecosystem to the exclusion of most native fishes, occupying multiple trophic levels and microhabitats. Adults largely consumed non-native crayfish and large aquatic insects, while juveniles consumed aquatic insects, the size of prey increasing with Redeye Bass length. There was no evidence of cannibalism. Redeye Bass have effectively occupied the diverse trophic positions of at least four native fish species and have altered the trophic position of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in sites where they co-occur with bass.

Conclusion

The introduction of Redeye Bass poses a continuing threat to native stream fishes in California and elsewhere.

Released August 22, 2024 06:23 EST

2024, Water Resources Research (60)

Oronde Oliver Drakes, Diana Restrepo-Osorio, Kathryn Powlen, Megan Hines

Released August 21, 2024 14:09 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5026-D-E

Andrew J. Long, Elise E. Wright, Leland T. Fuhrig, Valerie A.L. Bright

Wendy B. Welch, Andrew J. Long, editor(s)

Groundwater flow in the active model area (AMA) was simulated using a groundwater-flow model. A steady-state model version of the model simulates equilibrium conditions, and a transient model version simulates monthly variability. The model corresponds to the physical and temporal dimensions of the conceptual model and groundwater budget. The steady-state model version represents average conditions for an 11-year period (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2015), and the transient model represents monthly hydrologic variability within that period. The 13-layer model was constructed using MODFLOW-NWT with a uniformly spaced grid consisting of 416 rows, 433 columns, and cells with a horizontal dimension of 500 feet (ft) on a side.

The model was calibrated to measured values of water levels in wells and lakes and estimated base flow for selected streamflow measurement stations, commonly referred to as streamgages. Model calibration was accomplished using a combination of manual and automatic methods, including the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted model input parameters with the aim of minimizing the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow.

Model boundary conditions consist of all simulated groundwater inflow to and outflow from the AMA. For example, a stream reach that simulates a gain from or loss to groundwater is a boundary condition that allows water to exit or enter, respectively, the groundwater system. Other boundary conditions include springs, seeps, precipitation recharge, groundwater exchange with lakes and Puget Sound, and groundwater pumping. A comparison of the estimated groundwater budget to that simulated by the steady-state model version indicates that the relative percentages of total inflow or total outflow for six major categories of boundary conditions are similar for the two budgets.

The model was used to simulate three suites of scenarios of potential drought and water-use changes. Scenario 1 suite consisted of the steady-state model version that was run with 0, 15, 20, and 25 percent reduction of precipitation recharge to assess the corresponding reductions in base flow with decreasing recharge. The last simulation for the scenario 1 suite consisted of the transient model version simulating 3 years of consecutive seasonal drought, defined by the months of May through September, to assess the corresponding base-flow reductions. Scenario 2 suite consisted of the steady-state model version with all simulated groundwater use removed, compared with a simulation that includes current groundwater use to evaluate changes to potentiometric surfaces and base flows. Scenario 3 suite consisted of a transient model version of the model that simulated pumping increases for four different categories of water-supply wells (compared to no pumping increases) to evaluate resulting reductions in base flow. Although, these scenarios provide examples of model applications and useful insights, many other scenarios could be simulated. A description of how to download the model is described in the body of this report.

Uncertainty is associated with most model inputs. Groundwater levels, lake levels, and land-surface altitudes are relatively certain; other model inputs are far less certain, including precipitation recharge, base flow, hydraulic properties, water use, and the three-dimensional structure of subsurface hydrogeologic units. Models are useful not because of high levels of accuracy of all model inputs, but because they combine the best information and estimates available, thereby providing the best predictions available related to physical processes.

The model described in this report simulates groundwater flow on a regional scale, which has inherent limitations for simulating hydrologic scenarios at local scales. Model structures and inputs were generalized to be consistent with this regional scale. For example, the actual groundwater system has much greater heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity than is possible within the model’s degrees of freedom. Variations in hydraulic gradients over distances less than 500 ft cannot be simulated. The distances between model features, such as a pumping well and a stream, must be placed at 500-ft intervals and are co-located if both features are within the same model cell.

Released August 21, 2024 14:04 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5026-A-C

Wendy B. Welch, Valerie A.L. Bright, Andrew S. Gendaszek, Sarah B. Dunn, Alexander O. Headman, Elisabeth T. Fasser

Wendy B. Welch, Andrew J. Long, editor(s)

More than 1 million people live within the active model area (AMA) in the southeastern part of the lowlands surrounding Puget Sound, or Puget Lowland, Washington, and groundwater is the source for approximately one-half of their public, domestic, and irrigation water demands. The 887-square-mile AMA, located in King and Pierce Counties, represents the area of analysis for the conceptual hydrogeologic framework and numerical groundwater-flow models within the study area and includes the Puyallup River and Chambers-Clover Creek watersheds. To assess the potential hydrologic and anthropogenic impacts to groundwater and the connected surface-water resources, conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of groundwater flow were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center in close cooperation with 18 water-resource agencies and stakeholders.

This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system and the development of a numerical model in the AMA. Included are descriptions of the geology and conceptual hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels and flow directions, groundwater recharge and discharge, numerical groundwater-flow model construction and results, and model limitations. The study area encompasses the western part of Pierce County and the southwestern part of King County, Washington. The study area extends south to the Nisqually River, southwest to Tanwax Creek, northeast to the Green River, and north through the valley near Auburn and adjacent uplands. It is bounded on the east by foothills of the Cascade Range, and on the northwest by Puget Sound.

Released August 21, 2024 13:40 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3033

Ellen Robertson, Jenn Malpass, Christopher Ottinger, John Griffin, Christine Densmore, Kenneth Hyer

Introduction 

The partners of the Chesapeake Bay are investing billions of dollars in the restoration of critical habitats to improve conditions for people and living resources throughout the Bay and its watershed. However, the recent proliferation of invasive Ictalurus furcatus (blue catfish) in the Chesapeake Bay’s major rivers has the potential to disrupt these restoration efforts and limit the full potential improvement of the ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey can help respond to this management challenge in the Nation’s largest estuary by leveraging its leadership and technical capabilities to work with resource managers, academics, and other stakeholders.

Released August 21, 2024 09:59 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5026

W.B. Welch, A.J. Long, editor(s)

More than 1 million people live within the active model area (AMA) in the southeastern part of the lowlands surrounding Puget Sound, or Puget Lowland, Washington, and groundwater is the source for approximately one-half of their public, domestic, and irrigation water demands. The 887-square-mile AMA, located in King and Pierce Counties, represents the area of analysis for the conceptual hydrogeologic framework and numerical groundwater-flow models within the study area and includes the Puyallup River and Chambers-Clover Creek watersheds. To assess the potential hydrologic and anthropogenic impacts to groundwater and the connected surface-water resources, conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of groundwater flow were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center in close cooperation with 18 water-resource agencies and stakeholders.

This multichapter volume documents the development of the conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of groundwater flow. Chapters A, B, and C provide an overall introduction to the multichapter volume (Chapter A), the conceptual hydrogeologic framework (Chapter B), and the groundwater budget (Chapter C). Chapters D and E describe numerical groundwater-flow model construction and calibration (Chapter D) and the numerical groundwater-flow model results (Chapter E). Collectively, these reports present a characterization and simulation tool for groundwater resources near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington.

Released August 21, 2024 09:21 EST

2024, Conservation Genetics

Sean M. Hoban, Ivan Paz-Vinas, Robyn E. Shaw, Luis Castillo-Reina, Jessica M. da Silva, J. Andrew DeWoody, Robert Ekblom, Ancuta Fedorca, Brenna R. Forester, W. Chris Funk, Julia C. Geue, Myriam Heuertz, Peter M. Hollingsworth, Alice C. Hughes, Margaret Hunter, Christina Hvilsom, Fumiko Ishihama, Rebecca Jordan, Belma Kalamujić Stroil, Francine Kershaw, Colin K. Khoury, Viktoria Köppä, Linda Laikre, Anna J. MacDonald, Alicia Mastretta-Yanes, Mariah H. Meek, Joachim Mergeay, Katie L. Millette, David O'Brien, Victor J. Rincón-Parra, M. Alejandra Rodriguez-Morales, Meredith C. Schuman, Gernot Segelbacher, Paul Sunnucks, Rebecca S. Taylor, Henrik Thurfjell, Cristiano Vernesi, Catherine E. Grueber

Genetic diversity is essential for maintaining healthy populations and ecosystems. Several approaches have recently been developed to evaluate population genetic trends without necessarily collecting new genetic data. Such “genetic diversity indicators” enable rapid, large-scale evaluation across dozens to thousands of species. Empirical genetic studies, when available, provide detailed information that is important for management, such as estimates of gene flow, inbreeding, genetic erosion and adaptation. In this article, we argue that the development and advancement of genetic diversity indicators is a complementary approach to genetic studies in conservation biology, but not a substitute. Genetic diversity indicators and empirical genetic data can provide different information for conserving genetic diversity. Genetic diversity indicators enable affordable tracking, reporting, prioritization and communication, although, being proxies, do not provide comprehensive evaluation of the genetic status of a species. Conversely, genetic methods offer detailed analysis of the genetic status of a given species or population, although they remain challenging to implement for most species globally, given current capacity and resourcing. We conclude that indicators and genetic studies are both important for genetic conservation actions and recommend they be used in combination for conserving and monitoring genetic diversity.

Released August 21, 2024 07:21 EST

2024, Ornithological Applications

Nicholas J. Van Lanen, Adrian P. Monroe, Cameron L. Aldridge

Traditionally, local-scale habitat-relationship models are developed over small spatial extents, limiting model transferability and inference outside the study area. Thus, habitat managers frequently lack fine-scale information regarding the influence of vegetation composition and structure on site suitability or species abundance. Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus (Pinyon Jay) represents one declining species for which managers have limited information regarding the influence that vegetation composition and structure have on abundance at broad scales. To address this need, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian abundance model using summertime bird and vegetation data collected under the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program to explain jay abundance as a function of local conditions. Our G. cyanocephalus abundance model allowed abundance relationships with pinyon pine (Pinus edulis and P. monophylla) and juniper (Juniperus spp.) to vary by ecoregion, thereby accounting for potential regional differences in habitat associations. We found G. cyanocephalus abundance was generally positively associated with pinyon pine and juniper cover; however, habitat relationships varied by ecoregion. Additionally, we found positive associations between jay abundance and grass cover, sagebrush cover, and percent bare ground. Our results agree with prior research suggesting mechanical removal of pinyon pine and juniper trees for sagebrush restoration or fuel treatments may negatively affect G. cyanocephalus. Managers wishing to reduce pinyon and juniper tree cover without negatively affecting G. cyanocephalus may benefit from targeting sites where both large-scale distribution models and our local habitat relationships suggest G. cyanocephalus are likely to occur in low numbers. Additionally, our modeled relationships indicate restoration that increases grass cover, sagebrush cover, and bare ground, while maintaining pinyon and (or) juniper cover, may lead to increased local densities of G. cyanocephalus.

Released August 21, 2024 06:57 EST

2024, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (14) 21

Jeffrey J. Love, E. Joshua Rigler, H. Hayakawa, Kalevi Mursula

A study is made of the intensity of the Carrington magnetic storm of September 1859 as inferred from visual measurements of horizontal-component geomagnetic disturbance made at the Colaba observatory in India. Using data from modern observatories, a lognormal statistical model of storm intensity is developed, to characterize the maximum-negative value of the storm-time disturbance index (maximum –Dst) versus geomagnetic disturbance recorded at low-latitude observatories during magnetic storms. With this model and a recently published presentation of the Colaba data, the most likely maximum –Dst of the Carrington storm and its credibility interval are estimated. A related model is used to examine individual Colaba disturbance values reported for the Carrington storm. Results indicate that only about one in a million storms with maximum –Dst like the Carrington storm would result in local disturbance greater than that reported from Colaba. This indicates that either the Colaba data were affected by magnetospheric-ionospheric current systems in addition to the ring current, or there might be something wrong with the Colaba data. If the most extreme Colaba disturbance value is included in the analysis, then, of all hypothetical storms generating the hourly average disturbance recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm, the median maximum –Dst = 964 nT, with a 68% credibility interval of [855,1087] nT. If the most extreme Colaba disturbance value is excluded from the analysis, then the median maximum –Dst = 866 nT, with a 68% credibility interval of [768,977] nT. The widths of these intervals indicate that estimates of the occurrence frequency of Carrington-class storms are very uncertain, as are related estimates of risk for modern technological systems.

Released August 20, 2024 16:19 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1036

Aparajithan Sampath, Jeff Irwin, Minsu Kim

This report presents accuracy assessment results of the light detection and ranging (lidar) data collected in Colorado during a pilot project in fall 2019. The purpose of the pilot project was to assess the accuracy of lidar and imagery data collected simultaneously for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Imagery Program and the U.S. Geological Survey National Geospatial Program 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). A multiagency group consisting of U.S. Department of the Interior agencies and USDA agencies participated in the effort. Department of the Interior agencies included Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and U.S. Geological Survey; USDA agencies included the Farm Services Agency, the Natural Resource Conservation Service, and U.S. Forest Service. This pilot project was designed to help determine if a lidar sensor system has the potential to meet future 3DEP topographic lidar collection requirements, ideally at the same altitudes and leaf-on times that National Agriculture Imagery Program is flown.

The airborne sensor system from Leica Geosystems (part of Hexagon) (hereafter referred to as dual sensor system) was used in the pilot project and can collect imagery and three-dimensional point cloud data concurrently. This report examines the characteristics of lidar data from a geometric accuracy perspective. Field surveys were performed to evaluate the three-dimensional absolute and relative accuracy of the airborne lidar data and to determine if the data met 3DEP specifications.

Released August 20, 2024 14:30 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2023-1080

Scarlett L. Howell, Barbara E. Kus

Executive Summary

Surveys for the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) were done at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”), California, between May 9 and July 20, 2022. All of MCBCP’s historically occupied riparian habitat (core survey area) was surveyed for flycatchers in 2022. None of the non-core survey area was surveyed in 2022.

Eight transient Willow Flycatchers of unknown subspecies were observed on three of the five drainages surveyed in 2022. Willow Flycatchers were not detected at Fallbrook or Pilgrim Creeks. Transients occurred in a range of habitat types, including mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian, riparian scrub, and upland scrub habitat. Exotic vegetation, primarily poison hemlock (Conium maculatum), was present in most of the flycatcher locations.

In 2022, for the second time since monitoring began in 2000, resident Southwestern Willow Flycatchers were not detected on Base. The decline was not isolated to MCBCP; similar declines have been documented across California in recent years.

The one uniquely banded adult female flycatcher present during the 2021 breeding season did not return to MCBCP in 2022. None of the transients observed during surveys were seen to carry bands.

From 2000 to 2022, adult annual survival of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers on MCBCP was 60±3 percent, whereas first-year survival was 20±3 percent.

A conspecific attraction study was initiated on Base in 2018 and repeated annually through 2022; flycatchers were not observed near automated playback units in 2022.

Released August 20, 2024 13:56 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1039

Scarlett L. Howell, Barbara E. Kus

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP). Surveys for the flycatcher were completed at MCBCP between May 5 and July 31, 2021. All of MCBCP’s historically occupied riparian habitat (core survey area) was surveyed for flycatchers in 2021. Additionally, one-fifth of the non-historically occupied riparian habitat (non-core survey area C) was surveyed for flycatchers. Twenty-four transient Willow Flycatchers of unknown subspecies were observed on five of the seven drainages surveyed in 2021. No Willow Flycatchers were detected at French or Las Flores Creeks. Transients occurred in a range of habitat types, including mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian, riparian scrub, willow-sycamore (Platanus sp.) dominated or oak (Quercus spp.) sycamore-dominated riparian, and non-native-dominated riparian habitat. Exotic vegetation, primarily poison hemlock (Conium maculatum), was present in most flycatcher locations.

The resident population of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers on MCBCP declined 50 percent, from two individuals in 2020 to one individual in 2021. In 2021, the resident Southwestern Willow Flycatcher population on MCBCP consisted of one unpaired female occupying one territory. No males were observed in 2021. The resident flycatcher population was restricted to the Santa Margarita River, and distribution was limited to the Pueblitos breeding area. The resident flycatcher territory was located in mixed willow riparian habitat.

Nesting was initiated in late May and continued into late July. Two nesting attempts were documented, neither of which were successful. Infertile eggs likely accounted for both nest failures. No instances of Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism were observed. The female flycatcher placed her nests in native sandbar willow (Salix exigua) and used the same nest location for both nesting attempts.

Of resident birds that were present at MCBCP in 2021, 100 percent were banded in previous years; no unbanded birds were detected. Of the two uniquely banded adult flycatchers (one male, one female) present during the 2020 breeding season, 50 percent (one female) returned to MCBCP in 2021. The banded female returned to the same breeding area and territory she occupied in 2020. Neither of the two nestlings banded in 2020 returned to MCBCP in 2021, and neither were detected off Base. From 2000 to 2021, adult over-winter survival of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers on MCBCP was 60±3 percent (mean±standard error [SE]), and first-year survival was 20±3 percent.

A conspecific attraction study that used automatic playback units to broadcast flycatcher vocalizations in order to encourage flycatchers to settle on MCBCP was initiated in 2018 and repeated annually through 2021. The single resident flycatcher (female) detected in 2021 settled close to an automated playback unit.

Released August 20, 2024 11:40 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5048

Frederick Stumm, Jason S. Finkelstein, John H. Williams, Andrew D. Lange

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear cooperative study with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to evaluate the sustainability of Long Island’s sole-source aquifer system through hydrogeologic mapping, compilation of groundwater chloride concentrations, and groundwater flow modeling. In the initial phase of the islandwide study, the hydrogeologic framework and extent of saltwater intrusion in aquifers in Kings, Queens, and Nassau Counties on western Long Island, N.Y., were investigated. The aquifer system underlying western Long Island has been under stress from pumping of public, irrigation (golf course), and industrial supply wells. Saltwater intrusion has occurred from surrounding embayments (East River, Long Island Sound, Jamaica Bay, and the Atlantic Ocean) due to pumping.

Eighteen boreholes were drilled and cores taken during 2019–21 to collect hydrogeologic, geochemical, and geophysical data to delineate the complex subsurface hydrogeology and extent of saltwater intrusion within the study area. Evaluation of the new cores, reexamination of legacy core descriptions, and analysis of borehole geophysical logs was used to refine the previously published hydrogeologic framework of Pleistocene and Cretaceous unconsolidated sediments in the area, including delineation of a previously undefined hydrogeologic unit between the Magothy aquifer and the Raritan confining unit, herein named the “upper Raritan aquifer.” The upper Raritan aquifer was first recognized in southeastern Nassau County from an analysis of about 50 closely spaced boreholes with high-resolution core descriptions and gamma-ray (gamma) logs. Further analysis of borehole logs across the study area indicated that the upper Raritan aquifer was also present in Kings and Queens Counties.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging was used for the first time on Long Island to provide estimates of the hydraulic properties of the major aquifer and confining units. Unlike other geophysical logs that record responses to the rock matrix and fluid properties and are strongly dependent on mineralogy, NMR logs record responses to the presence of hydrogen protons in the formation fluid to determine water fraction and pore-size distribution. NMR log analysis provided estimates of the clay-bound, capillary-bound, and mobile water fractions and hydraulic conductivity of aquifers and confining units penetrated by five wells in Nassau County.

Pumpage for public-supply and industrial wells on Long Island began in the 1870s with small, localized suppliers of populated areas in Kings and Queens Counties. By 1904–16, pumpage for public water supply in Kings County averaged 21 million gallons per day, and averaged 37 million gallons per day in Queens County, mostly from the upper glacial aquifer. Saltwater intrusion was reported as early as the beginning of the 20th century and included the upper glacial-Jameco-Magothy and Lloyd-North Shore aquifer systems. By 1936, pumping in central Kings County created a major cone of depression in the water table extending to the south shore of much of Kings County and into southwestern Queens County. Saltwater intrusion has caused the shutdown of public-supply wells in Kings, Queens, and Nassau Counties. A large saltwater intrusion wedge in the Lloyd aquifer was indicated in southern Queens County in the early part of the 20th century, and the saltwater interface may have been onshore predevelopment. Most of Kings and Queens Counties are intruded with saltwater in both the upper glacial-Jameco-Magothy and Lloyd-North Shore aquifers systems. Saltwater increased during the 20th century and continues to increase to the present (2023) in the Lloyd-North Shore aquifer system in Great Neck and Manhasset Neck in northern Nassau County. A major wedge of saltwater intrusion in the upper glacial-Jameco-Magothy aquifer in southwestern Nassau County appears to be increasing.

Released August 20, 2024 11:40 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5044

Donald A. Walter, Kalle L. Jahn, John P. Masterson, Sarken E. Dressler, Jason S. Finkelstein, Jack Monti, Jr.

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure.

The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data.

Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019.

The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions.

Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix.

Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions.

Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent.

The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

Released August 20, 2024 08:34 EST

2024, Frontiers in Veterinary Science (11)

Sarin Suwanpakdee, Nareerat Sangkachai, Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Witthawat Wiriyarat, Walasinee Sakcamduang, Peerawat Wongluechai, Choenkwan Pabutta, Ladawan Sariya, Waruja Korkijthamkul, David S. Blehert, C. LeAnn White, Daniel P. Walsh, Craig Stephen, Parntep Ratanakorn, Jonathan M. Sleeman

There is an increasing need for robust wildlife health programs that provide surveillance and management for diseases in wildlife and wild aquatic populations to manage associated risks. This paper illustrates the value of a systematic method to enhancing wildlife health programs. The U.S. Geological Survey and Mahidol University, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Thailand National Wildlife Health Center formally twinned under the auspices of the World Organisation for Animal Health to enhance wildlife health capacity in Thailand and the Southeast Asia Region. We used a system-wide approach to holistically and interdependently enhance capacity. The project commenced with a wildlife health program needs assessment, and capacity enhancement focused on strengthening the general wildlife health surveillance network and improving wildlife health information management. Activities included partner surveys, interactive and didactic workshops, and individual personnel training. Topics included development of wildlife health information management systems, analysis of the current surveillance network, development of a Theory of Change for a strengthened surveillance network, planning workshops to create a wildlife health network, training on wildlife disease outbreak investigation and field sample collection, leading networks, and individual training on bioinformatics and laboratory techniques. Engagement of stakeholders at all levels, continuous communication throughout the project, use of both strategic planning tools and pedagogical methods, and using iterative and adaptive approaches, were key factors to the success of this project.

Released August 20, 2024 06:57 EST

2024, The Seismic Record (3) 194-203

William L. Yeck, Adam T. Ringler, David R. Shelly, Paul S. Earle, Harley M. Benz, David C. Wilson

The body‐wave magnitude (⁠⁠) is a long‐standing network‐averaged, amplitude‐based magnitude used to estimate the magnitude of seismic sources from teleseismic observations. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) relies on in its global real‐time earthquake monitoring mission. Although waveform modeling‐based moment magnitudes are the modern standard to characterize earthquake size, is important because (1) in many cases, waveform modeling is not possible (e.g., low signal‐to‐noise events), (2) is applicable over a broad range of magnitudes, ∼M 4–7, and (3) there is a many decades‐long history of estimating magnitudes. We use the NEIC Preliminary Determination of Epicenters earthquake catalog to investigate the uncertainty in NEIC station measurements. We show that measurements are spatially correlated, which can bias event ⁠, and we describe an empirical relation between this spatial correlation and station‐to‐station distance. We further describe an approach to mitigate bias from the spatial correlation. Accounting for the spatial covariance of observations can change the event from −0.15 to 0.07 units (10th to 90th percentile) for smaller events (⁠⁠). These smaller events have the largest standard deviations ranging from 0.05 to 0.15 units (10th to 90th percentile).

Released August 20, 2024 06:17 EST

2024, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (81) 1292-1304

Paul W. Fedorowicz, Yu-Chun Kao, Amanda Susanne Ackiss, Katie Victoria Anweiler, Andrew Edgar Honsey

Released August 19, 2024 17:15 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5094

Suzanne S. Paschke, M. Alisa Mast, Philip M. Gardner, Connor P. Newman, Kenneth R. Watts

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River is a major concern in the southwestern United States where the river provides water to about 40 million people for municipal and industrial use and is used to irrigate about 5.5 million acres of land. Much of the salinity in the Colorado River Basin is derived from natural interactions of surface water and groundwater with various geologic materials (rocks, soils, and alluvial deposits). The Dolores River in southwest Colorado is a major tributary of the Colorado River that historically accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Upper Colorado River Basin with the Paradox Valley being the primary source of salinity to the Dolores River. The Paradox Valley, one of several salt-anticline valleys in the region, is a fault-bounded topographic basin aligned with and exposing an underlying salt-anticline core. Salt deposits in the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation of the Hermosa Group form an elongated salt diapir oriented northwest to southeast that is up to 12,000 feet (ft) thick beneath the present valley floor. Surface erosion, groundwater circulation, and weathering during Tertiary and Quaternary valley formation contributed to development of a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and brine at the top of the exposed salt diapir. Today (2023), brine occurring in the brecciated cap rock and underlying salt deposits is in hydraulic connection with an overlying freshwater alluvial aquifer, and depending on seasonal river stage and hydrologic conditions, the brine discharges to the Dolores River causing the observed increase in salinity as the river crosses the Paradox Valley.

To reduce salinity concentrations in the Dolores River, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU). The PVU project consists of nine shallow brine pumping wells near the Dolores River and one deep disposal well where the brine is injected for disposal. When operational, the PVU pumping wells extract brine from the base of the alluvial aquifer that is piped and injected into a deep disposal well about 3 miles southwest of the PVU. The PVU became fully operational July 1, 1996, and by 2015, operation of the PVU had reduced salinity concentrations in the Dolores River by as much as 70 percent compared to pre-PVU conditions. In response to a 4.5 magnitude earthquake, injection operations, and thus PVU pumping, were ceased from March 2019 to June 2022. A trial period of PVU operation began in June 2022 with a reduced injection rate, and thus PVU pumping rate, of about two-thirds capacity to gather additional information and guide future operational decisions.

In cooperation with Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this report to present the current (2023) understanding of groundwater and brine occurrence and discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley. Results from the compilation of spatial datasets, groundwater sampling and age dating, and aquifer tests are presented to provide improved understanding of the Paradox Valley hydrogeology, to supply datasets for a numerical groundwater-flow and brine-transport model, and to support future operations of the PVU. The hydrogeologic data provided herein, along with the most recent loading analysis for the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, and a previous conceptual model for brine discharge to the river are used to present a conceptual understanding of groundwater occurrence in the Paradox Valley.

Released August 19, 2024 17:15 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5038

Charles E. Heywood, Suzanne S. Paschke, M. Alisa Mast, Kenneth R Watts

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU.

In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET).

Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells.

The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate.

Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought.

The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Released August 19, 2024 09:53 EST

2024, Global Ecology and Conservation (54)

Matthew J. Gould, Justin Clapp, Mark A. Haroldson, Cecily M. Costello, J. Joshua Nowak, Hans Martin, Michael Ebinger, Daniel D. Bjornlie, Daniel Thompson, Justin A. Dellinger, Matthew Mumma, Paul Lukacs, Frank T. van Manen

Long-term wildlife research and monitoring programs strive to maintain consistent data collections and analytical methods. Incorporating new techniques is important but can render data sets incongruent and limit their potential to discern trends in demographic parameters. Integrated population models (IPMs) can address these limitations by combining data sources that may span different periods into a unified statistical framework while providing a holistic view of population dynamics. We developed an IPM in a Bayesian framework for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We coupled demographic data with multiple, independent population count data to link annual changes in abundance with vital rates over 4 decades (1983–2023). Abundance increased threefold from an estimated 270 individuals in 1984 to 1030 individuals in 2023. Parameter estimates indicated survival of bears ≥2 years of age was high, contributing to robust population growth during the 1980s (λ = 1.023 [50 % interquartile range = 0.993–1.082]) and 1990s (λ = 1.064 [1.023–1.103]). A slowing of population growth started around 2000 (2000s: λ = 1.030 [0.989–1.068]) and continued into the 2010s (λ = 1.021 [0.985–1.057]), due primarily to reductions in survival of bears <2 years of age. These findings corroborate previous research that identified density-dependent effects as a likely cause. The IPM framework provided greater certainty and understanding regarding the dynamic demographic characteristics of the population and serves as a powerful monitoring tool for this long-lived species. Implementation of the IPM allows timely dissemination of demographic data to help inform adaptive management strategies and policy decisions necessary for the continued management and conservation of this population. This robust and flexible monitoring system allows scientists to investigate the effects of a changing ecosystem on population dynamics, incorporate new data sources and statistical models, and respond to changes in monitoring needs for the population. We highlight the efficacy of the IPM in estimating and tracking demographic parameters for a long-lived species, while accommodating shifts in monitoring techniques and data collections typical of long-term wildlife conservation programs worldwide.

Released August 17, 2024 09:46 EST

2024, Biological Invasions

Judith Z. Drexler, Michael Gross, Michelle Hladik, Bailey Morrison, Erin Hestir

Broad infestations of invasive, non-native vegetation have transformed wetlands around the world. Ludwigia hexapetala is a widespread, amphibious invasive plant with a creeping growth habit in open water and an erect growth habit in terrestrial habitats. In the upper San Francisco Estuary of California, L. hexapetala is increasingly terrestrializing into marshes and this expansion may be facilitated by allelopathy. We conducted the first field-based study on L. hexapetala allelopathy to determine whether (1) three allelochemicals known to be exuded by L. hexapetala are expressed in situ, (2) the allelochemicals are detectable in leaves, soil, and water, and (3) allelopathic expression varies by season, salinity, and growth habit (open water “patch” vs. terrestrial marsh “interface” locations). Water, soil, and L. hexapetala leaves were collected in two freshwater sites and two oligohaline sites in the upper San Francisco Estuary in summer 2021, fall 2021, and spring 2022. Myricitrin and quercitrin, known allelochemicals, and salipurposid, a newly identified polyphenol, were detected in water, soil, and leaves. There were significant differences in allelochemical concentrations under fresh versus oligohaline conditions in water and soil, but not leaves. All three allelochemicals generally had higher concentrations in patch versus interface locations, suggesting that L. hexapetala allelopathy plays a greater competitive role in open water than terrestrial habitats. Leaf concentrations of each allelochemical varied seasonally; however, both myricitrin and salipurposid had heightened concentrations in spring. These results suggest that herbicide application in early spring may be most effective in controlling L. hexapetala terrestrialization from open water to marshes.

Released August 16, 2024 14:20 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1022

Kendra L. Russell, William J. Andrews, Vincent J. DiFrenna, J. Michael Norris, Robert R. Mason, Jr.

Executive Summary

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States, entered June 7, 1954 (New Jersey v. New York, 347 U.S. 995), established the position of Delaware River Master within the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, the Decree authorizes the diversion of water from the Delaware River Basin and requires compensating releases from certain reservoirs owned by New York City be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. The Decree stipulates that the River Master provide reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually. This report is the 64th annual report of the River Master of the Delaware River. The report covers the 2017 River Master report year, from December 1, 2016, to November 30, 2017.

During the report year, precipitation in the upper Delaware River Basin was 47.85 inches or 108 percent of the long-term average. On December 1, 2016, combined useable storage in the New York City reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin was 110.115 billion gallons or 40.7 percent of combined storage capacity, the lowest combined storage of the 2017 report year. The reservoirs were at about 100 percent of useable capacity on May 31, 2017. Combined storage remained above 80 percent of combined capacity until September 2017.

A lower basin drought watch issued by the Delaware River Basin Commission in 2016 extended from the beginning of this report year to January 18, 2017. The drought watch was ended on January 18, 2017, due to increased precipitation in December 2016. River Master operations during the year were conducted as stipulated by the Decree and the Flexible Flow Management Programs.

Diversions from the Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey fully complied with the Decree. Reservoir releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the flow objective for the Delaware River at Montague, New Jersey (N.J.), on 52 days during the report year. Interim Excess Release Quantity and conservation releases, designed to relieve thermal stress and protect the fishery and aquatic habitat in the tailwaters of the reservoirs, were made during the report year. Excess Release Quantity and Interim Excess Release Quantity Bank releases were also made during the report year.

The water quality in the Delaware River estuary between the streamgages at Trenton, N.J., and Reedy Island Jetty, Delaware, was monitored at various locations. The data on water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and pH were collected continuously by electronic instruments at four sites.

Released August 16, 2024 10:22 EST

2024, Preprint

Andrew Gendaszek, Anya Clare Leach, Kristin Jaeger

Water temperature is a primary control on the occurrence and distribution of cold-water species. Rivers draining Mount Rainier in western Washington, including the White River along its northern flank, support several cold-water fish populations, but the spatial distribution of water temperatures, particularly during late-summer base flow between August and September, and the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes regulating this temperature distribution are not well understood. Spatial stream network (SSN) models, which are generalized linear models that incorporate streamwise spatial autocovariance structures, were fit to mean and seven-day average daily maximum water temperature for August and September for the White River basin located with Mount Rainier National Park. The SSN models were calibrated using water temperature measurements collected between 2010 and 2020. Significant covariates within the best-fit models included the proportion of ice cover and forest cover within the basin, mean August air temperature, the proportion of consolidated geologic units, and snow water equivalent. Statistical models that included spatial autocovariance structures had better predictive performance than those that did not. In addition, models of mean August and September water temperature had better predictive performance than those of seven-day average daily maximum temperature in August and September. Predictions of the spatial distribution of water temperature were similar between August and September with a general warming in the downstream part of main-stem White River compared to cooler water temperatures in the high-elevation headwater streams. Estimated water temperatures for the upper White River model are three to four degrees Celsius warmer for tributaries but one to two degrees cooler for the main stem compared to the regional-scale model. Differences between the upper White River SSN model and the regional-scale SSN model are attributed the upper White River SSN including water temperature observations specific to the upper White River, whereas water temperature observations from lower elevation streams and downstream of the Mount Rainer National Park boundary were used in the regional-scale model.

Released August 16, 2024 08:36 EST

2024, ACS Earth and Space Chemistry

Bryce A. Cook, Benjamin D. Peterson, Jacob M. Ogorek, Sarah E. Janssen, Brett A. Poulin

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to sea level rise with unknown consequences for mercury (Hg) cycling, particularly the potential for exacerbating neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) production and bioaccumulation in food webs. Here, the effect of sea level rise on MeHg formation in the Florida Everglades was evaluated by incubating peat cores from a freshwater wetland for 0–20 days in the laboratory at five salinity conditions (0.16–6.0 parts-per-thousand; 0.20–454 mg L^–1 sulfate (SO₄^2–)) to simulate the onset of sea level rise within coastal margins. Isotopically enriched inorganic mercury (²⁰¹Hg(II)) was used to track MeHg formation and peat-porewater partitioning. In all five salinity treatments, porewaters became anoxic within 1 day and became progressively enriched in dissolved organic matter (DOM) of greater aromatic composition over the 20 days compared to ambient conditions. In the four highest salinity treatments, SO₄^2– concentrations decreased and sulfide concentrations increased over time due to microbial dissimilatory SO₄^2– reduction that was concurrent with ²⁰¹Hg(II) methylation. Importantly, elevated salinity resulted in a greater proportion of produced Me²⁰¹Hg observed in porewaters as opposed to bound to peat, interpreted to be due to the complexation of MeHg with aromatic DOM released from peat. The findings highlight the potential for enhanced production and mobilization of MeHg in coastal wetlands of the Florida Everglades due to the onset of saltwater intrusion.

Released August 16, 2024 06:59 EST

2024, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism (47)

Jeffrey L. Marion, Emily J. Wilkins

Released August 16, 2024 06:51 EST

2024, The Cryosphere (18) 3195-3230

Livia Piermattei, Michael Zemp, Christian Sommer, Fanny Brun, Matthias H. Braun, Liss M. Andreassen, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Amaury Dehecq, Inés Dussaillant, Daniel Falaschi, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Christian Ginzler, Gregoire Guillet, Romain Hugonnet, Andreas Kääb, Owen King, Christoph Klug, Friedrich Knuth, Lukas Krieger, Jeff La Frenierre, Robert McNabb, Christopher Mcneil, Rainer Prinz, Louis C. Sass, Thorsten Seehaus, David Shean, Désirée Treichler, Anja Wendt, Ruitang Yang

Released August 16, 2024 06:37 EST

2024, Journal of Biogeography

Remi Bardou, Michael Osland, Jahson B. Alemu I, Laura Colleen Feher, David P. Harlan, Steven B. Scyphers, Christine C. Shepard, Savannah H. Swinea, Kalaina Thorne, Jill E. Andrew, A. Randall Hughes

Aim

The climate change-induced transition from grass-dominated marshes to woody-plant-dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of future changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structural properties due to warming winters.

Location

Southeastern United States.

Time Period

Recent (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100).

Major Taxa Studied

Coastal wetland vegetation.

Methods

We estimated changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structure using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981–2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071–2100. We quantified potential changes in mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenarios (SSPs; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively.

Results

Our analyses indicate that mangrove presence and relative abundance will dramatically increase in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States, particularly under the high emissions scenario. Because of the higher stature of mangroves relative to salt marsh vegetation, this expansion will cause a transformative change in coastal wetland vegetation height and aboveground biomass in many areas. However, along the arid southern Texas coast, low precipitation and high salinities are expected to constrain mangrove expansion and growth.

Main Conclusions

Our results show where and to what extent climate change, in the form of winter temperature warming, is projected to enable the transition from shorter, grass-dominated salt marshes to taller, woody plant-dominated mangrove forests in the southeastern United States, with consequent impacts on ecosystem goods and services.

Released August 15, 2024 13:48 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1040

Alexandra Houston, Lisa D. Allen, Shannon M. Mendia, Barbara E. Kus

Executive Summary

We completed four protocol surveys for Least Bell’s Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus; hereinafter vireo) during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits between April 6 and July 20 at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area (hereinafter Project Area). We identified a total of 136 territorial male vireos; 121 were confirmed as paired, and 4 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining 11 territories, we were unable to confirm breeding status. In 2023, two transient vireos were detected. The vireo population in the Project Area increased by 2 percent from 2022 to 2023. Populations in southern San Diego County also increased (by 6 percent on the Otay River) or were stable (Salt Creek/Wolf Canyon). In contrast, the vireo population at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP) and at Marine Corps Air Station decreased by 2 and 10 percent, respectively.

We used an index of treatment (hereinafter Treatment Index) to evaluate the effect of ongoing vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory by using the percentage area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We determined that the Treatment Index for an unoccupied habitat was more than four times higher than that of an occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected habitats that were less treated in which to settle.

We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (hereinafter Channel), (2) three sites near the flood channel where limited non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred (hereinafter Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (hereinafter Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 84 territories, 4 of which were occupied by single males. Overall, 46 percent of completed nests were successful, and nest success did not differ among the three sites. In 2023, we found that territories in the Channel had greater hatching success per egg compared to Off-channel, but there were no other differences with regard to clutch size, hatching, or fledging success among Channel, Off-channel, and Restoration sites. Overall breeding success and productivity were slightly higher in 2023 than in 2022, with pairs fledging an average±standard deviation of 3.1±2.1 young and 79 percent of pairs fledging at least 1 young.

To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an effect on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort (the number of nest attempts) or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2023. Similarly, we did not detect an effect of Treatment Index on the daily survival rate (DSR) of nests.

Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2023 did not reveal an effect of vegetation cover at the nest on DSR. We did find, however, that Channel nests were placed higher in and farther from the edge of the host plant than Off-channel nests. Within sites, we did not detect any differences in vegetation cover between successful and unsuccessful nests.

Red/arroyo willow (Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis) and mule fat (Baccharis salicifolia) were the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow (Salix gooddingii) and sandbar willow (Salix exigua) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (10 and 13 species, respectively) compared to Restoration sites (2 species), although there was limited nesting in Restoration sites in 2023.

There were 51 vireos banded before the 2023 breeding season that were resighted and identified at the Project Area in 2023. Two of these vireos were originally banded outside of the Project Area, at the Santa Margarita River on MCBCP. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 7 years old. Between 2006 and 2023, survival of males (66±11 percent) was consistently higher than that of females (60±12 percent). First-year birds from 2006 to 2022 had an average annual survival of 15±5 percent.

First-year dispersal in 2023 averaged 20.2±31.3 kilometers (km), with the longest dispersal (76.3 km) by a female that was recaptured at Wolf Canyon, a tributary to Otay River. From 2007 to 2012, most returning first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, whereas from 2014 to 2016, a greater proportion of returning birds dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area. From 2018 to 2022, the trend shifted, and more first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, except for 2022 when only one out of five first-year vireos returned to the Project Area. This trend continued in 2023: 71 percent of all first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, and 29 percent dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area (San Diego River and Wolf Canyon).

Most of the returning adult male vireos showed strong between-year fidelity to their previous territories. In 2023, 94 percent of males (34/36) occupied a territory that they had defended in 2022 (within 100 meters [m]). In 2023, 33 percent of females (1/3) detected returned to a territory they occupied in 2022. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.2±0.9 km. The amount of treatment at adults’ 2022 territories did not affect the distance adults moved to their 2023 territories.

We completed four protocol surveys for the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus; hereinafter flycatcher) at the Project Area between May 15 and July 21, 2023. In 2023, four transient Willow Flycatchers were detected in the Project Area. Two transients were detected in Reach 1, one in Reach 3a, and one in Whelan Mitigation. No resident flycatchers were documented in the Project Area in 2023.

A total of 46 vegetation transects (516 points) were sampled in the Project Area in 2023. There were 71 percent (368/516) of points located in the Channel, and 22 percent (113/516) were in Upper Pond. The remaining 7 percent (35/516) of points were at the Whelan Restoration site. Foliage cover below 1 m was higher at the Channel points and Upper Pond compared to Whelan Restoration. From 1 to 3 m, foliage cover was similar at all 3 sites; however, above 3 m foliage cover was higher in the Channel compared to the Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration sites. Average canopy height was higher in the Channel (5.6±3.8 m) compared to Upper Pond (4.7±2.7 m) and Whelan Restoration (4.0±2.0 m). From 2006 to 2023, total foliage cover declined from 2 to 3 m and above 6 m in the Channel, in contrast to Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration, where little directional change in vegetation cover has occurred and where vegetation cover has largely recovered to 2006 levels. Within the Channel, the steepest declines occurred between 2009 and 2013 and between 2014 and 2016. Since 2016, we observed an increase in foliage cover, largely herbaceous, between 0 and 2 m within the Channel. Although increases were observed at all height classes after 2016, percentage cover has remained below levels measured before 2009.

We sampled vegetation at 45 vireo nests and 45 random plots (territory plots) within territories in the Channel and Upper Pond after the 2023 breeding season. Vireos in the Channel established territories in areas with significantly more cover from 3 to 7 m but less cover below 1 m relative to the available habitat. Within territories, Channel vireos selected nest sites largely at random, but with significantly less foliage cover from 4 to 5 m. Vireos at Upper Pond established territories in areas with significantly more foliage cover below 4 m and from 5 to 6 m relative to available habitat. Within territories, Upper Pond vireos also selected nest sites at random except for a preference for sites with significantly less foliage cover below 1 m.

Released August 15, 2024 10:03 EST

2024, International Journal of Wildland Fire (33)

Jon Keeley, Michael Flannigan, Tim J. Brown, Tom Rolinski, Daniel Cayan, Alexandra D. Syphard, Janin Guzman-Morales, Alexander Gershunov

Background. Autumn and winter Santa Ana Winds (SAW) are responsible for the largest and most destructive wildfires in southern California. Aims. 1) To contrast fires ignited on SAW days vs non-SAW days, 2) evaluate the predictive ability of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI) for these two fire types, and 3) determine climate and weather factors responsible for the largest wildfires. Methods. Cal Fire FRAP fire data were coupled with hourly climate data from 4 stations, and with regional indices of SAW wind speed, and with seasonal drought from the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Key results. Fires on non-SAW days were more numerous and burned more area, and were significant May to October. CFWI indices were tied to fire occurrence and size for both non-SAW and SAW days, and in the days following ignition. Multiple regression models for months with greatest area burned explained up to a quarter of variation in area burned. Conclusions. The drivers of fire size differ between non-SAW and SAW fires. The best predictor of fire size for non-SAW fires was drought during the prior five years, followed by current-year vapor pressure deficit. For SAW fires, wind speed followed by drought were most important.

Released August 15, 2024 09:34 EST

2024, Environmental Science & Technology

Ying-Jie He, Haolin Liao, Ge Yang, Wenhui Qui, Rongrong Xuan, Guomao Zheng, Bentuo Xu, Xin Yang, Jason Tyler Magnuson, Daniel Schlenk, Chunmiao Zheng

Perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), an emerging short-chain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance, has been frequently detected in aquatic environments. Adverse outcome pathway studies have shown that perfluorinated compounds impair lipid homeostasis through peroxisome proliferator activated receptors (PPARs). However, many of these studies were performed at high concentrations and may thus be a result of overt toxicity. To better characterize the molecular and key events of PFHxS to biota, early life-stage zebrafish (Danio rerio) were exposed to concentrations detected in the environment (0.01, 0.1, 1, and 10 μg/L). Lipidomic and transcriptomic evaluations were integrated to predict potential molecular targets. PFHxS significantly impaired lipid homeostasis by the dysregulation of glycerophospholipids, fatty acyls, glycerolipids, sphingolipids, prenol lipids, and sterol lipids. Informatic analyses of the lipidome and transcriptome indicated alterations of the PPAR signaling pathway, with downstream changes to retinol, linoleic acid, and glycerophospholipid metabolism. To assess the role of PPARs, potential binding of PFHxS to PPARs was predicted and animals were coexposed to a PPAR antagonist (GW6471). Molecular simulation indicated PFHxS had a 27.1% better binding affinity than oleic acid, an endogenous agonist of PPARα. Antagonist coexposures rescued impaired glycerophosphocholine concentrations altered by PFHxS. These data indicate PPARα activation may be an important molecular initiating event for PFHxS.

Released August 15, 2024 08:38 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Map 3523

A.R. Whaling, W.J. Bolton

Rockdale County Department of Water Resources has a directive to update estimates of the reservoir storage capacity of Randy Poynter Lake, located in northern Georgia, and to assess recent sedimentation and associated storage capacity loss. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a multibeam bathymetric survey of Randy Poynter Lake to update storage capacity estimates and to quantify storage capacity change since the first multibeam bathymetric survey in 2012 in consideration of estimated errors inherent to bathymetric surveys. Data from the 2022 survey were used to generate contours of the reservoir as well as compute storage capacity at regular increments of water-surface elevation. Storage capacity comparisons between 2012 and 2022 at Randy Poynter Lake show minimal changes that are within the estimated uncertainties, with consistent or slightly increased storage capacities observed at most water-surface elevations and reductions observed at the remaining few elevations. Comparison of the multibeam bathymetric data collected in 2012 with data collected in 2022 further allowed for a formal geomorphic change detection analysis to map, quantify, and infer causation of morphological change over time with respect to a level of detectable change. The volume change in Randy Poynter Lake for the decade between 2012 and 2022 was slightly net-depositional and within the estimated uncertainty. The spatial distribution of sediment deposition was primarily concentrated in the northern portion of the lake, where the principal tributary flows into Randy Poynter Lake. The results of the geomorphic change analysis were used to further understand the future implications to storage capacity change. Despite the challenges of confirming systematic biases because of uncertainties exceeding the observed changes, insights from the study help predict long-term reservoir sediment accumulation, indicating a reservoir half-life extending about 650 years from 2022 on the basis of the current sediment yield estimates.

Released August 15, 2024 07:19 EST

2024, Endangered Species Research (54) 383-394

Sophia N. Lyon, Joseph A. Tomoleoni, Julie L. Yee, Jessica Fujii, Nicole M. Thometz

Sea otters Enhydra lutris are vital keystone predators throughout the North Pacific that were nearly extirpated during the maritime fur trade. Recovery of southern sea otters E. l. nereis has proceeded slowly, with much of their historical range remaining unoccupied, resulting in reduced ecosystem functioning. Numerous studies have used foraging metrics to assess the population status of southern sea otters throughout their current range, but little is known about the northern range extent, where a stall in expansion has limited recovery. Thus, we collected census and foraging data of sea otters at Año Nuevo State Park, California, from 2019 to 2021 to determine sea otter abundance, diet composition, diet diversity, and average energy intake rate at the northern range edge. We then assessed regional population status by comparing values from Año Nuevo with previously collected data from other locations in California, including high-density, range center sites and low-density, range periphery sites. We found that sea otter density at Año Nuevo was greater than surrounding areas at the northern range periphery, and the average (±95% CI) energy intake (9.51 ± 0.91 kcal min^-1) more closely resembled values observed at high-density sites. Further, dietary diversity (using the Shannon-Wiener index, H) was intermediate between previously studied high- and low-density populations (H = 1.81), with crabs making up the largest proportion of the diet (~56%). Overall, this study highlights possible effects of occupation time and range stagnation, identifies unique aspects of the prey resource base at Año Nuevo, and provides insight into the ongoing lack of northern range expansion.

Released August 15, 2024 07:02 EST

2024, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Thomas M. Evans, Lars G. Rudstam, Suresh A Sethi, Daniel Yule, David Warner, Steve A. Farha, Andrew R. Barnard, Mark Richard Dufour, Timothy P. O'Brien, Kayden Nasworthy, Ian Harding, Bradley A. Ray, Edmund J. Isaac, Joshua Blankenheim, Hannah B. Blair, James M. Watkins, Steven A. Senczyszyn, James Roberts, Peter C. Esselman

Released August 15, 2024 06:48 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5072

Ariele R. Kramer, Justin R. Abel

Milford Lake, the largest reservoir by surface area in Kansas, has had confirmed harmful algal blooms every summer since reporting began in 2011, except 2018–19. Milford Lake has been listed as impaired and designated hypereutrophic under section 303(d) of the 1972 Clean Water Act. In 2014, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment established a total maximum daily load for eutrophication and dissolved oxygen impairments. In 2018, the Natural Resources Conservation Service funded the Regional Conservation Partnership Program for the Milford Lake Watershed to focus on best management practices in the Lower Republican River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, completed this study to assess and quantify water-quality constituent concentrations and loads for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended sediment (SS) using previously published models for the Republican River near Clay Center, Kansas (U.S. Geological Survey station 06856600), about 15 miles upstream from Milford Lake, during August 1, 2018, through July 31, 2023. TN, TP, and SS concentrations and loads were monitored because of their relation to water supply and water-quality issues in Milford Lake, including nutrient and sediment transport, taste-and-odor events, potentially toxic cyano-harmful algal bloom events, and subsequent downstream transport of contaminants. Data from this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements.

The study mean annual loads for TN and TP were greater than the reported mean annual total maximum daily load and exceeded the watershed reduction goals as well as Kansas nonpoint source reduction goals defined by the Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategy for the Lower Republican watershed. TN and TP annual loads during 2019–20 were greater than the defined mean annual total maximum daily load. During 2022, TN and TP annual loads were less than the Kansas nonpoint source reduction goal and during 2023 were less than the watershed reduction goal. SS loads were less than the mean annual sedimentation rate computed from the total maximum daily load for the entirety of the study period, and the study mean annual load was 72 percent less than the designed annual reservoir sedimentation rate for Milford Lake.

Data collected during the study period represented a wide range of streamflow and water-quality conditions at the Clay Center site, ranging from low-flow with less frequent runoff during 2023 to high-flow with frequent runoff during 2018. Nutrient reduction goals were only met in the final 2 years of the study period when annual mean flow conditions were lower than normal, indicating that goals may be unattainable during average or high-flow conditions. In all years except 2019, the annual mean SS load was less than the 20-year sediment load reduction target. Although annual SS loads at the Clay Center site generally decreased over time, corresponding reductions in annual streamflow indicated that these reductions may primarily be related to less frequent runoff from the upstream basin. Continued water-quality monitoring and tracking of best management practices are necessary to understand the success of Regional Conservation Partnership Program efforts to reduce nutrient transport in the Milford Lake Watershed.