Released December 19, 2025 15:32 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5073

Christina L. Stamos, Allen H. Christensen, Geoffrey Cromwell, Meghan C. Dick, Christopher P. Ely, Elizabeth R. Jachens, Sarah E. Ogle, Mackenzie M. Shepherd

The relation between the groundwater and the amount of natural recharge to the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins is not well understood. During the 20th century, the reliance on groundwater near Anza, California, used for agricultural, domestic, and municipal reasons has increased, and there is the potential for changes in groundwater availability related to climate change. Several types of existing data were evaluated, and new data were collected for this study, with the goal of characterizing the region’s hydrogeology. The study’s scope included constructing a geologic framework model to show where the groundwater-bearing units are present and their relation to each other, estimating the major components of the groundwater budget, and understanding local short-term and regional long-term groundwater flow and how that has changed since the early 1900s.

Two electrical resistivity tomography surveys were done in the Durasno Valley about 2,150 feet apart to identify the thickness of the alluvium, its horizontal extent, and the depth-to-basement along two profiles perpendicular to Cahuilla Creek. The subsurface sediments were mostly horizontally layered and the transitional boundary between the alluvium and basement was thinner and shallower along the upgradient profile where the depth-to-basement was about 70 feet below land surface; the depth-to-basement at the downgradient profile was more than about 140 feet below land surface. The results from the surveys were used to place four monitoring wells at two sites along the survey profiles. Artesian flow from the deepest well at the downgradient site indicated that the decomposed and competent basement likely contributed some groundwater to the overlying alluvium, laterally, from below, or both.

A digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed using EarthVision software to represent the subsurface geometry of the alluvium, decomposed basement, and competent basement. Maps and cross sections of the modeled thicknesses of the alluvium and decomposed basement, and the modeled elevation of the top of the competent basement, were made to show the subsurface geometry of vertical faults, selected wells, and the groundwater-bearing units.

Because natural recharge is related to the variable cycles of precipitation, estimates are difficult to quantify. Recharge and runoff have extreme interannual variability in the study area; recharge and runoff can be sporadic, and a substantive amount may not occur in some years. Estimates of recharge from a previous study and the regional-scale Basin Characterization Model for California for four different periods ranged from 3,800 acre-feet/year for 1897–1947 to 5,900 acre-feet/year for 1971–2000. Potential recharge from the disposal of domestic septic systems may have been as much as 500 acre-feet in 2020. It was estimated that between about 400 and 2,400 acre-feet/year of groundwater is lost through evapotranspiration by vegetation and evaporation from open water bodies, but the main source of discharge is through pumpage, mainly used for agriculture from the alluvium in the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins. The estimated total pumpage for 1991–2021 ranged from about 1,140 acre-feet in 2019 to about 3,450 acre-feet in 1994. When summed, the cumulative amount of estimated pumpage between 1991 and 2021 was about 81,400 acre-feet.

The general direction of groundwater flow is from the northeast along the San Jacinto fault zone at the headwaters of Cahuilla and Hamilton Creeks, to the surface-water outlets at the west and southeast parts of the study area. Groundwater-level data from the 1950s and earlier indicate that there was a natural groundwater divide between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins, but the changing magnitude and extent of the groundwater depressions caused by pumping since about 1950 indicate that the location of the natural groundwater boundary between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins has migrated over time.

Flow from the upper to the lower parts of the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin roughly follows the course of Cahuilla Creek through the narrow Durasno Valley where an estimated volume of flow in April 2019 was about 10–150 acre-feet/year. Short-term trends in groundwater levels, particularly in wells where groundwater is shallow and in the basement unit, show how some areas respond quickly to recharge and discharge. Wells located further to the east within the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin in the alluvium show much less of a response to recharge events; areas of sustained pumpage from the alluvium, primarily for agriculture, show long-term declines in groundwater levels and generally do not show the effects of storm events or recent runoff. Groundwater levels in wells that are farthest from where most of the recharge occurs and where pumping has been the greatest, had some of the largest long-term groundwater-level declines at a rate of about 0.8 foot/year between 1971 and 2021.

Released December 19, 2025 12:37 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Map 3539

David A. Crown, Ellen R. Stofan, Leslie F. Bleamaster III

James A. Skinner, editor(s)

This 1:5,000,000-scale geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle divides the region into 15 geologic material units, defined using Magellan synthetic aperture radar (12.6-centimeter-wavelength radar system; 75 meters per pixel) datasets and including upland terrain units (2.4 percent of the surface area), plains materials units (59 percent), flow materials associated with named and unnamed eruptive centers (37.2 percent), small volcanic edifices, and impact crater materials (1.4 percent). Upland terrain units consist of tessera and lineated upland material, plains materials consist of Guinevere regional plains and Guinevere lineated and mottled plains, and flow materials consist of lobate flow material and plains-forming flow material. Specific lobate flows associated with Atanua Mons, Tuli Mons, Var Mons, and Uilata Fluctus are mapped separately. Other mapped units are impact crater material and small volcanic edifice. In addition to geologic units, we mapped linear features that show patterns of deformation or flow across the quadrangle. These consist of faults, wrinkle ridges, broad arches, channels, troughs, and flow direction indicators. The map region also contains several small volcanic features: shields, depressions, and craters. These, in combination with the plains, large volcanoes, and coronae, show the pervasive influence of volcanism across Venusian lowlands. The rims of nine identified impact features are delineated; large bright and dark haloes, which in some cases are associated with individual impact craters, are mapped as surficial mantling deposits.

We documented spatial relationships using the stratigraphic and cross-cutting relationships of the quadrangle’s geologic units and features to provide a synthesis of the region’s geologic history. The upland terrain of the quadrangle indicates intense tectonic deformation and uplift. It is exposed as embayed remnants, typically within the plains, and represents the oldest geologic materials locally and across the region. Guinevere plains and the plains-forming flow unit appear to be assemblages of volcanic flows from multiple sources, including distinct coronae and corona-like structures. The temporal evolution of Guinevere lineated and mottled plains was likely protracted, with continued formation of small volcanic edifices over a long period. The morphologic and radar brightness characteristics of volcanoes in the region indicate their growth may have involved (1) multiple large-scale eruptive centers with recognizable spatial and temporal sequences, (2) extensive lava flow fields with a multitude of flows producing complex, overlapping patterns, and (3) numerous small volcanic edifices, including shields, domes, and cones. Although geologic patterns common to other regions of Venus are evident in the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle, local relative age relationships are inconsistent or unclear, preventing robust stratigraphic correlation. The mapping results do, however, indicate complicated local sequences of volcanic and tectonic activity.

Released December 19, 2025 11:15 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5108

Marc L. Buursink, Ashton M. Wiens, Matthew M. Jones, Brian A. Varela, Philip A. Freeman, Sean T. Brennan, Matthew D. Merrill, Peter D. Warwick

The need for energy storage, particularly underground, where capacity and duration may far exceed battery storage technologies, is especially relevant given the increasing demands for reliable power alongside the development of intermittent renewable electricity sources. Geologic energy storage facilities already exist, and expanded use would enable storing gases such as methane and hydrogen. In 2018, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, “Future Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program,” recommended that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prioritize assessing underground energy storage in geologic formations in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has since developed a methodology for assessing natural gas storage capacities in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs on a national scale. The methodology introduced in this report prescribes three approaches for calculating gas storage capacity. This methodology relies on the availability of input data, including cumulative hydrocarbon production records, reservoir petrophysical properties, and reservoir pressure data. Assessment inputs can be obtained from public, State-level databases and propriety national-scale databases, although the use of analogs could be warranted for estimating input parameters. Probabilistic assessment results are aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. The steps defined in this report are demonstrated on the Michigan Basin Province, which includes the Mississippian Sandstone Gas Play and the Clinton Structural Play. This methodology could be used to systematically and consistently assess hydrocarbon plays and provinces for natural gas storage capacity across the United States.

Released December 18, 2025 06:12 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5100

James Flocks, Arnell Forde

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Released December 17, 2025 12:40 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5109

Katherine Walton-Day, Natalie K. Day, M. Alisa Mast, Rachel G. Gidley, Evan J. Gohring, Tyler V. King, Warren C. Day, Nicole D. Gibney, Nancy J. Bauch

Blue Mesa Reservoir, in the Curecanti National Recreation Area, is the largest storage reservoir in Colorado and consists of three distinct basins: Iola (the shallowest), Cebolla, and Sapinero. After algal toxins were first documented in Iola basin in 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study in cooperation with the National Park Service, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, Gunnison County, Project 7 Water Authority, and Uncompahgre Valley Water Users Association to better understand occurrence of toxic cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) and identify possible causal mechanisms to potentially inform management strategies.

Toxic cyanoHABS occurred when the algal toxin microcystin exceeded a concentration of 8 micrograms per liter primarily in Iola basin in 2018 and 2020–22, years having some of the lowest reservoir water-level elevations (reservoir levels) since 1984. The toxic cyanoHABs started in mid-September and continued through the fall months. Algal abundance was greatest in Iola basin compared to Cebolla and Sapinero basins, with Aphanizomenon, a toxin-producing cyanobacterium, being the most abundant. During blooms, enhanced algal photosynthesis caused elevated pH and dissolved oxygen concentrations especially in Iola basin. Continuous monitor data in Iola basin indicated peaks in phycocyanin fluorescence, pH, and dissolved oxygen concentration that preceded the onset of toxic cyanoHABs by about 2 weeks potentially indicating a useful early warning monitoring strategy for future response to toxic cyanoHABs. Long-term trends showed increases in mean air and surface-water temperatures and chlorophyll-a concentrations in the reservoir but no change in nutrient inputs from major tributaries. In Iola basin, reservoir level was positively correlated with Secchi disk depth and inversely correlated with total phosphorus concentration. Because of its shallow depth, the effect of low reservoir levels may disproportionately affect Iola basin compared to other basins, resulting in algal blooms and toxin production especially at reservoir levels below about 7,470 feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988. Elevated phosphorus at low reservoir level likely was primarily phosphorus contained in algal tissue.

This report indicates that the main driver for recent toxic cyanoHABs in Iola basin is low reservoir level that likely causes favorable conditions (shallow and warm) for algal growth and increased recruitment of algae from bottom sediments such as during wind-driven turbulence. Control of external nutrients to the reservoir is unlikely to help control algal blooms because Aphanizomenon fixes nitrogen from the atmosphere, and there is an abundant geogenic source of phosphorus. Maintenance of reservoir levels greater than about 7,470 feet might help minimize the occurrence of toxic cyanoHABs. Additional data could help better understand how the timing and duration of reservoir levels below 7,470 feet contribute to toxic cyanoHABs.

Released December 17, 2025 11:55 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3054

Rand Gardner, Jason A. Flaum, Justin E. Birdwell, Scott A. Kinney, Janet K. Pitman, Stanley T. Paxton, Katherine L. French, Tracey J. Mercier, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Christopher J. Schenk

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 152 million barrels of oil and 47.9 trillion cubic feet of gas in reservoirs of the Haynesville Formation within the onshore United States and State waters of the Gulf Coast Basin.

Released December 17, 2025 11:00 EST

2025, Water, Air, & Soil Pollution (237)

Collin Klaubauf, Anita Thompson, William R. Selbig, Laxmir Prasad

Urban runoff containing high amounts of nutrients like phosphorus (P) is a well-established driver of surface water eutrophication. In residential areas, a primary source of nutrients is derived from leaf litter. P contained in leaves is leached and transported by stormwater from source to stream. The majority of P leached from leaf litter is in the dissolved phase, which can be difficult to remove using conventional treatment practices, leaving source control as the most viable option. Additional tools are needed to help forecast how different tree species may improve or hinder contributions of nutrients to runoff. For this reason, ten street tree species that are common throughout the contiguous U.S. were chosen to evaluate the effect of species on leachable P from tree leaves using laboratory experiments. After 48 h of exposure to water, the amount of P released ranged from 2.16 mg P g⁻¹ leaf for Silver Maple to 0.03 mg P g⁻¹ leaf for Hackberry. More than half of the P was lost in the first 12 h for eight of the ten tree species, making guided source control important to reduce inputs to surface water from key locations. Results were used to identify ‘hotspots’ of P leaching in Madison, WI and can be used to assess current street tree inventories that can then guide management to areas with the highest nutrient reduction potential and inform urban foresters who may wish to tailor future planting scenarios that minimize nutrients in runoff.

Released December 16, 2025 16:33 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3056

Kelly O. Maloney, Rosemary M. Fanelli, Matthew J. Cashman, Lindsey J. Boyle, Stephanie E. Gordon, Benjamin P. Gressler, Michelle P. Katoski, Alexander H. Kiser, Marina J. Metes, Gregory E. Noe, Andrew J. Sekellick, Allison Sussman, John A. Young

Freshwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are home to numerous aquatic organisms (like fish, amphibians, mussels, and insects) and provide drinking water and recreational opportunities to people living in or visiting the watershed. Land-use changes, such as urban development and increased activities in certain agricultural sectors, have degraded water quality and altered conditions in these streams, thereby affecting their health and function. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with Federal, State, and local partners to develop modeled assessments of stream health in freshwater streams and rivers within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The USGS compiled large datasets for multiple stream health indicators, including instream stressors (salinity, water temperature, physical habitat, and streambank erosion) and living resources (macroinvertebrates and fish communities; fig. 1). These datasets were used by USGS scientists to develop models to predict stream health conditions across the entire region, including areas with little or no monitoring data. Collectively, these stream health assessments provide critical information to natural resource managers who implement restoration and conservation activities in the region.

Released December 16, 2025 13:55 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5106

Jon W. Wilson, Boris Poff, Christopher C. Fuller

An evaluation of sediment deposition rates and volume of impounded sediments in Pahranagat Wash behind Arrow Canyon dam in southeastern Nevada was done between 2016 and 2022. Data were collected and interpreted to address concerns by the Moapa Band of Paiutes and local historical preservation groups regarding the burial of culturally important sites by the impounded sediment deposited behind the dam. Sediment cores from two wells, drilled to depths that reflect the original stream-channel profile, and a third site drilled and sampled at a finer resolution, were analyzed radiometrically for lead-210 (²¹⁰Pb) and cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) isotopes. The analysis of the ²¹⁰Pb data yielded an overall estimated sediment deposition rate of 2.4 inches per year (in/yr). Using the ¹³⁷Cs data, the sediment deposition rate declined from 9.4 in/yr from 1934 to 1951 to 4.2 in/yr from 1951 to 1964 to 1.0 in/yr between 1964 and 2019.

Sediment volume was determined by defining boundaries using a 1-foot contour map generated using Unmanned Aerial Survey datasets and field observations. The volume calculation involved segmenting the study area based on the availability of sediment thickness data. The average sediment thickness in each segment was multiplied by the surface area of each segment to obtain the total sediment volume of 4.3×10⁷ cubic feet.

Released December 16, 2025 12:13 EST

2025, Circular 1554

Elizabeth M. Powers, Dee M. Williams, editor(s)

Introduction

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mission—The USGS national mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict the current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision makers. Consistent with the national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five interconnected focus areas:

• Energy and Minerals;
• Geospatial Mapping;
• Natural Hazards;
• Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and
• Ecosystems.

The USGS in Alaska consists of approximately 350 scientists and support staff working in 3 Alaska-based science centers. USGS science activities are also initiated by the Cooperative Research Unit and USGS centers outside Alaska. In the last 5 years, USGS research in Alaska has produced many scientific benefits resulting from more than 900 publications. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/.

Released December 16, 2025 11:37 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5103

Amanda E. Cravens, Zachary B. Hough Solomon, Julia B. Goolsby, Heather M. Yocum, Stefan Tangen, Wylie Carr

Executive Summary

Climate change is causing a range of changes that can affect the natural, cultural, and built resources of the Nation’s protected areas and affect opportunities to visit and recreate in these spaces. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns also affect species and habitats, leading to ecological transformation. This report describes findings from pilot research conducted in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah (hereinafter referred to as “Capitol Reef” or “the Park”) as part of a larger interagency study of how National Park Service (NPS) staff are considering management of transforming ecosystems.

Semi-structured interviews were used to assess how Capitol Reef employees (n=9) understand the challenge of ecological transformation, including their perceptions of how climate change is affecting the Park’s natural and cultural resources, the multiple timeframes over which employees respond to climate change impacts, and their awareness and understanding of ecological transformation and the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework, which was developed to address ecological transformation, that is, ecosystems changing in response to changes in climate conditions (Schuurman and others, 2020, 2022). The interviews also solicited employee perceptions about constraints and enabling factors that allow Capitol Reef to effectively respond to ecological transformation. The report uses a conceptual framework that has been used by the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program (Clifford and others, 2022) to structure the reporting of the data about constraints and enabling factors, with sections describing the role of factors internal to an individual employee (culture, worldviews, and understanding of an ecological system) and contextual factors external to an individual (institutional context, social feasibility and scientific uncertainty as influenced by available scientific information).

Participating Capitol Reef staff perceived the most pressing climate impacts in the Park as increasing air temperatures, aridity, and flash floods, which are impacting natural and cultural resources, public safety, and infrastructure. Staff mostly agreed on what the future landscape (approximately 50 years into the future) may look like at Capitol Reef in terms of changes in vegetation and future temperature and precipitation conditions. However, staff had more divergent views or were uncertain about how specific species will adapt to future conditions (for example, how endemic plants might shift their ranges) and are grappling with which management strategies to take at which times. Staff also had differing opinions about how much data is needed to prompt action.

Interviewees agreed that leadership in the Park had made climate change a priority and created a climate-attuned culture among staff. Participating employees described the park culture at Capitol Reef as collaborative, with frequent communication and work across divisions, which, as an example, shapes responses to flash floods and other events (for example, working across divisions on search and rescue, or repairing fencing that is washed out by storms). This collaborative, climate-attuned culture may help Capitol Reef in future problem-solving as it grapples with how to respond to climate change and ecological transformation in the Park.

Released December 16, 2025 08:37 EST

2025, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences (53) 567-594

Seth D. Burgess, Benjamin A. Black

Emplacement of the Siberian Traps large igneous province (LIP) around 252 Ma coincided with the most profound environmental disruption of the past 500 million years. The enormous volume of the Siberian Traps, its ability to generate greenhouse gases and other volatiles, and a temporal coincidence with extinction all suggest a causal link. Patterns of marine and terrestrial extinction/recovery are consistent with environmental stresses potentially triggered by the Siberian Traps. However, the nature of causal links between the LIP and mass extinction remains enigmatic. Understanding the origins, anatomy, and forcing potential of the Siberian Traps LIP and the spatiotemporal patterns of resulting stresses represents a critical counterpart to high-resolution fossil and proxy records of Permian–Triassic environmental and biotic shifts. This review provides a summary of recent advances and key questions regarding the Siberian Traps in an effort to illuminate what combination of factors made the Siberian Traps a uniquely deadly LIP.

•  Large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps are capable of triggering global environmental destabilization.
•  Greenhouse gases generated by Siberian Traps magmatism played a major role in driving the climate changes that triggered the end-Permian mass extinction.
•  The end-Permian extinction fundamentally altered the evolutionary trajectory of Earth's biosphere, creating ecological space for many of the organisms seen today.
•  Determining the timing and patterns of end-Permian marine and terrestrial mortality and recovery and the timing and character of Siberian Traps magmatism is key in understanding the causal link between magmatism and extinction.
•  Understanding the cause(s) of past extinction events informs hypotheses about current and future environmental destabilization.

Released December 15, 2025 16:09 EST

2026, Book chapter, Understanding recreational fishers: Disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches for fisheries management

Abigail Lynch, Len M. Hunt, A. Ben Beardmore, Brett T. van Poorten, Kevin L. Pope, Robert Arlinghaus

Recreational fisheries are interconnected, complex, adaptive systems characterized by multiple direct and indirect interactions among ecological and human subsystems. This is important for many reasons, including that feedbacks between the social and ecological dimensions lead to difficult-to-predict, often entirely unexpected, outcomes and because many management and governance systems have multiple objectives that can involve social (e.g. fisher satisfaction), economic (e.g. license revenue), and ecological (e.g. fish conservation) dimensions. Embracing a social-ecological-system perspective can usher in an improved era of recreational fisheries science and management. Interdisciplinary approaches that unite experts across disciplines (e.g. social and ecological sciences) to create a unique theoretical, conceptual, and methodological identity are needed to gather crucial information from recreational fishers, quantify and predict fisher behaviours and outcomes from these behaviours, and integrate these findings into fisheries management. In this chapter, we lay the conceptual foundation for recreational fisheries as coupled social-ecological systems that are also complex and adaptive, and discuss the interdisciplinary approach to operationalize this book’s vision.

Released December 15, 2025 16:03 EST

2026, Book chapter, Understanding recreational fishers: Disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches for fisheries management

Brett van Poorten, Len M. Hunt, E. Arlo Richardson, Abigail Lynch, Kevin L. Pope

In this closing chapter of our edited book, we summarize what we believe are best practices for understanding recreational fishers. Fishers are an integral part of the recreational fishery social-ecological system, and we emphasize the importance of placing them in that context. We begin with an overview of the process of developing a project and conclude with some broad suggestions for standardising approaches to gather data from and about fishers, mainly focusing on social science methods. Throughout, we emphasize tactics to promote the development of inter- and transdisciplinary tools and processes, as a means of more fully understanding the full social-ecological system. This chapter draws from methodological details and suggestions developed throughout this book; we describe how they work together but point the reader to these specific chapters to further understand how to build interdisciplinarity into research and management.

Released December 15, 2025 11:09 EST

2025, Frontiers in Microbiology (16)

Joanna Mankiewicz-Boczek, Arnoldo Font Nájera, Karina Yew_Hoong Gin, Jennifer L. Graham, Dominik Strapagiel, Rebecca Michelle Gorney, Jerome Wai Kok, Shu Harn Te, Magdalena Kluska, Milena Skóra, Michał Seweryn, Francisco Josue Hun

Cyanobacterial toxicity, cyanotoxins, and their impact on aquatic ecosystems and human health are well documented. In comparison, less is known about bloom-associated bacterial communities. Co-occurring bacteria can influence bloom development, physiology and collapse, and may also provide a niche for pathogenic bacteria. Existing research focuses on the cyanosphere of Microcystis-dominated blooms, despite the increasing prevalence of filamentous genera (Aphanizomenon and Planktothrix). This pilot study aimed to broaden our understanding of the bacterial consortia attached to morphologically distinct cyanobacteria (coccoid and filamentous) dominating phytoplankton communities and to explore their potential roles in amplifying the impacts of cyanobacterial blooms. We investigated four shallow freshwater bodies across three continents and two climate zones: an urban pond in the USA, a dammed reservoir and a natural lake in Poland, and an urban water body in Singapore. Amplicon sequencing (16S rRNA gene) was used to characterize bacterial communities, while shotgun metagenomics identified nitrogen- and phosphorus-cycling genes to infer potential eco-physiological functions. Cyanobacteria dominated bacterioplankton assemblages at all sites (>35.6%), with bloom composition influencing toxigenic profiles. A mixed bloom of Microcystis, Snowella, and Aphanizomenon had the broadest range of cyanotoxin synthetase genes (mcyE, cyrJ, anaF and sxtA). Microcystis blooms correlated with increased Roseomonas, while Planktothrix co-occurred with Flavobacterium – both bacteria likely contribute to nutrient-cycling within blooms and represent potential opportunistic pathogens for aquatic organisms and humans. The Microcystis cyanosphere exhibited the highest number of significant positive correlations with bacteria (19 relations), compared to Planktothrix and Aphanizomenon (11 and 2 relations, respectively). Non-diazotrophic blooms of Microcystis and Planktothrix showed greater abundances of nitrogen – (ureB, glnA, narB, and narHZ) and phosphorus-cycling genes (phoBHPR and ppk1), indicating a strong dependence on associated bacteria for nutrient acquisition compared to diazotrophic Aphanizomenon. These findings suggest that Aphanizomenon-dominated blooms may be sustained by simpler microbiomes. Our results provide preliminary evidence of cyanosphere heterogeneity potentially shaped by the dominance or coexistence of three morphologically and eco-physiologically distinct genera of cyanobacteria. A comprehensive knowledge of the taxonomy and functional roles of bloom-associated microbiomes is therefore essential to understand bloom activity, evaluate the environmental threat, and develop effective strategies for prevention and mitigation.

Released December 15, 2025 10:57 EST

2026, Book chapter, Understanding recreational fishers: Disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches for fisheries management

Kevin L. Pope, Robert Arlinghaus, Len M. Hunt, Abigail Lynch, Brett T. van Poorten

Despite more than 50 years of research into the human dimensions of recreational f isheries, there is no textbook to present the theoretical grounding, operationalisation, and interpretation of the most elemental social components involved in fisheries management – namely, outcomes and trade-offs, behaviours (and antecedents or predictors of it), and the relationships among actors (fishers, f isher groups, managers, and management organisations). The objective of this edited volume is to reduce this knowledge gap. The book comprises four parts: (I) recreational fisheries as social-ecological systems, (II) disciplinary views of f ishers’ behaviours and outcomes, (III) engagement of fishers to support effective social science, and (IV) interdisciplinary integration for recreational fisheries management. Part I provides the general motivation for an interdisciplinary approach to understand recreational fisheries as coupled systems. Part II provides the foundations of various social science disciplines and highlights linkages and differences in the underlying theories and concepts used. Part III describes various qualitative and quantitative methods to study the social aspects of recreational fisheries in more detail, and Part IV suggests approaches to achieve standardisation and integration of different data streams, including how to link social and ecological data. The book chapters have been written by leading scholars of recreational fisheries science, involving social and economic scientists, political ecologists, and fisheries ecologists with a tradition in either applying human dimensions or working towards integration.

Released December 15, 2025 10:49 EST

2025, Environmental Science and Technology

Meredith Brehob, Michael Pennino, Jana Compton, Qian Zhang, Marc H. Weber, Ryan A. Hill, Selia Markley, Brian Pickard, Maddie Keefer, Sarah M. Stackpoole, Lauren A Knose, Gerardo J. Ruiz-Mercado, Christopher M. Clark, Anne W. Rea, James N. Carleton, Jiajia Lin, Jesse O. Bash, Kristen M. Foley, Christian Hogrefe, Robert D. Sabo

Efforts to constrain the negative environmental impacts of excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are costly and challenging, due in part to inconsistent reporting of nutrient sources at temporal and spatial scales relevant for local decision making. To meet this challenge, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Nutrient Inventory provides estimates of major agricultural, urban, atmospheric, and natural nutrient fluxes for the contiguous United States at county and HUC12 scales annually from 1987 (from 1950 for agriculture) to 2017. Since the late 1980s, total N emissions and atmospheric N deposition have declined 22% and 15%, respectively, despite increased agricultural emissions. Over the same period, municipal wastewater N and P loads remained largely stable, despite population increases, through wastewater treatment upgrades and the phaseout of phosphorus-containing detergents. Improved agricultural efficiency allowed for dramatic increases in agricultural production and crop harvest since 1987 (∼25% for N and P), with little change in surplus nutrients left on fields. Overall, a combination of innovative technologies and management has stemmed or even decreased major sources of nutrient pollution to the environment over the last several decades, representing an important shift that, if continued, may contribute to improved air, land, and water quality and human health.

Released December 15, 2025 09:51 EST

2025, Journal of Applied Volcanology (14)

Heather M. Wright, J. D. Pesicek, Stephen A. Spiller

Modern operational eruption forecasting methods rely heavily on human judgment in the face of uncertainty and are thus susceptible to myriad cognitive biases and errors by the scientist-forecasters. Recent developments in the behavioral sciences have elucidated cognitive biases across a wide spectrum of human behaviors and found ways to mitigate them. These insights have led to significant gains in human forecast accuracy across a range of disciplines. However, such gains have yet to widely penetrate volcanic eruption forecasting efforts. In this study, we review recent progress in these fields as relevant to improving current eruption forecasting methods as practiced by volcano observatories worldwide. We group cognitive biases into 1) information and selection biases, 2) group effects and social-emotional biases, and 3) framing and decision biases and highlight the numerous places in which these biases may permeate eruption forecasts. We present a framework for improving group discussion and forecasting processes at volcano observatories, considering recent gains from behavioral sciences along with a mitigation checklist to effectively reduce bias in operational eruption forecasts. Finally, we present an updated forecasting methodology for use in our own group, the US Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, based on previous “multiple datasets” methods, that includes clear and deliberate efforts to minimize cognitive biases and thus improve eruption forecasting accuracy.

Released December 15, 2025 09:13 EST

2025, PNAS (122)

Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Miranda H. Mockrin, Volker C. Radeloff, Lucas Bair, Mike Caggiano, James Meldrum, Patricia Alexandre, H. Anu Kramer, Paul F. Steblein

Many regions of the world have seen an increase in highly destructive wildfires, driven by well-documented increases in burned area and growth of housing in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which exposes more homes to fire. However, it is unclear whether wildfires are also becoming more destructive due to changes in wildfire behavior or in the development patterns of exposed communities. Here, we assessed trends in wildfire building exposure and destruction rates in the conterminous United States from 2002 to 2022. We mapped destroyed and surviving buildings within 100 m of all wildfires that destroyed 10 or more buildings (n = 362) and assessed trends relative to major ecoregions and vegetation types. We used logistic regression to assess relationships between destruction rates and landscape factors. We found that 10% of exposed buildings were destroyed in 2002–2012, but this percentage increased to 32% in 2013–2022. This increase was largely due to greater building exposure in evergreen forests in the northwestern United States, where exposed buildings were more than 3.4 times as likely to be destroyed as those in grass and shrublands. However, annual destruction rates also significantly increased in all other vegetation types and were correlated with development type, weather, and burn severity. These results indicate that increasing wildfire destruction in the United States has resulted not only from increased exposure but from rising rates of building destruction, potentially indicating more extreme wildfire behavior. This finding underscores the need to better understand how fuel management, community planning, and hardening buildings can reduce vulnerability.

Released December 15, 2025 08:21 EST

2026, Book chapter, Understanding recreational fishers: Disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches for fisheries management

Nicholas Allen Sievert, Rebecca M. Krogman, Holly Susan Embke

Bringing data related to recreational fishers and fisheries together across large scales can provide tremendous insight. Methods for collecting, analysing, and storing data can vary dramatically, which can have significant implications for the use of these data. Efforts to standardise data within organisations often increase the ability to compare datasets from different areas, monitor changes over time, and increase the utility of the data for management and research. Though employing standardised methodology and data architecture results in the most straightforward and robust opportunities for data integration, doing so may not be possible due to variation in data collection objectives, continuity with historical programs, and resource limitations. Additionally, managing data according to FAIR principles (findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability) helps support data sharing and large-scale research efforts. Key elements of integrable data include appropriate data structures, adequate documentation of methodology, interpretable and complete metadata, and accessible storage formats. We document the potential benefits of standardising data and offer example approaches. We also explore best practices regarding the formatting, storage, and transmission of recreational fisher data. Efforts to increase the level of standardisation and integrability of recreational fisher data can create opportunities to better understand fisher behaviour, needs, and fulfilment.

Released December 13, 2025 09:55 EST

2025, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (26)

Nathan Lee Andersen, Annika E. Dechert, Dawn Catherine Sweeney Ruth, May (Mai) Sas, Julie Chouinard, Josef Dufek

South Sister volcano, Oregon Cascade Range, USA, has repeatedly erupted rhyolite since ca. 40 ka. The youngest such eruptions are the ca. 2 ka Rock Mesa and Devils Chain rhyolites, erupted several hundred years apart from two multi-vent complexes separated by 3–6 km. Fe-Mg interdiffusion models of orthopyroxene rims from both rhyolites produce timescales up to several-thousand years, but dominantly decades-to-centuries. Notably, the timescales of step-normal zoned orthopyroxene rims (i.e., normally zoned with a steep chemical gradient) from the Rock Mesa rhyolite are longer than those of reversely zoned crystals, whereas the Devils Chain produced mostly decadal timescales for both zoning types. Despite the proximity and broadly similar products of these episodes, their respective timescales indicate distinct sequences of events leading up to each eruption. The Rock Mesa timescales record centuries of magma chamber growth followed by decades of predominantly magma rejuvenation, reorganization, and destabilization. In contrast, the Devils Chain episode was preceded by a single episode of coupled rhyolite extraction, rejuvenation, and hybridization. Rare, high-An plagioclase cores and evidence of reheating implicate cryptic emplacement of mafic magma at the base of the rhyolite reservoirs. However, the diffusion timescales do not unequivocally support a single magma recharge event that affected both. Fluid fluxing and the reorganization of melt into buoyant magma chambers likely provided the source of increasing pressurization that initiated each eruption after several decades. Geodetic models of ongoing deformation west of South Sister could consider these processes in addition to magma emplacement.

Released December 13, 2025 09:18 EST

2025, Water Resources Research (61)

Vindhyawasini Prasad, Juan Martin Andrade Ramos, Cory Suski, P. Ryan Jackson, Amy E. George, Duane C. Chapman, Jesse Robert Fischer, Benjamin H. Stahlschmidt, Rafael O. Tinoco

Invasive carp have severely damaged aquatic ecosystems in the USA, particularly in the Mississippi River Basin. Behavioral deterrents have been developed in the last few decades to control population expansion into new ecosystems. However, none of these deterrents are capable of controlling early-life stage carp, which have limited or no mobility during their drifting stage in rivers. Capturing eggs and larvae in large numbers warrants new methods due to their distinct physical and biological properties as well as their lack of behavioral response. We tested a novel method to redirect downstream drifting eggs and larvae for their efficient removal in streams using an oblique bubble screen (OBS) deterrent. We investigated the effects of mean water velocity and airflow rate on redirection of eggs, pre-gas bladder inflation (GBI) larvae, near-GBI larvae, and dead larvae. Although similar OBS configurations had shown high efficacy redirecting plastic spheres (egg surrogates) in previous studies, they underperform redirecting live eggs and larvae. However, distinct patterns were identified for eggs, pre-GBI, near-GBI, and dead larvae. A detailed hydrodynamic analysis showed that eggs closely follow the larger scales of motions created by the OBS, and that larvae can actively respond to turbulence cues. This study yielded new insights into the movement of early-life stage grass carp in a turbulent flow with strong recirculation, and provided important data to improve the design of bubble screen dispersal barriers for invasive carp management and population control.

Released December 12, 2025 11:15 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1042

Anya Metcalfe, Morgan Ford, Lawrence E. Stevens, Theodore Kennedy

Management practices that enhance habitat complexity in dam tailwaters often aim to increase biodiversity and improve ecosystem health. However, in other instances, management practices may simplify habitat features to help minimize the establishment of invasive species. These tradeoffs are complex, particularly in the face of drought and warming water temperatures. In Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, a backwater known as −12 Mile Slough (henceforth the Slough), located 5-kilometers downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, is being considered for removal to reduce breeding habitat for warmwater nonnative fishes. In this report, the habitat suitability for and occupancy of dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata) at the Slough are assessed. U.S. Geological Survey staff conducted three site visits to the Colorado River in Glen Canyon, the Slough, and another backwater (“Frogwater”) on September 11–13, and 26, 2024. The physical habitat of the sampling sites was characterized by recording water temperatures, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, flow, depth, and benthic substratum size distribution. We sampled aquatic macroinvertebrates and riparian macroinvertebrates using benthic and aerial collection methods, respectively. We describe three distinct benthic aquatic invertebrate communities in and around the Slough, two of which contained Odonata. We found no Odonata larvae in the mainstem, at Frogwater, or in the Lower Slough. Using historic specimen data from the Museum of Northern Arizona, we report 8 species of damselflies from one family (Coenagrionidae) and 8 species of dragonflies from three families (Aeshnidae, Gomphidae, and Libellulidae) in Glen Canyon between 1985 and 2024. We discuss the habitat requirements of Odonata larvae known to occur in the Slough, as well as their cultural and recreational values. We conclude that channelization of the Slough to cool water temperatures may reduce larval Odonata habitat locally but is unlikely to affect their diversity and abundance on a regional scale.

Released December 12, 2025 09:17 EST

2025, Seismological Research Letters

Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Allison Shumway, Julie A. Herrick

Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded seismicity models for use in the 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The previous PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and our new models incorporate updates to both data and methodology. We utilize an updated earthquake catalog based on improved Puerto Rico Seismic Network data with newly characterized completeness epochs. The catalog is divided into crustal, subduction interface, and intraslab seismicity using new methods and Slab2 subduction zone geometries. To forecast the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquakes, we use an updated methodology developed for the 2023 U.S. 50‐state NSHM, considering three declustering methods and two spatial smoothing methods based on 2D Gaussian kernels. To adapt it for the complex seismotectonics of the region, we also adopt probabilistic methods to account for events with unknown depths and uncertainties in tectonic classification, and develop a new method for spatial scaling to counteract the effects of spatial variability in network coverage while maintaining the use of smaller events. Finally, we test the performance of these spatial models in forecasting the location of M_w ≥ 5earthquakes in the region. Our updated methodology improves the representation of epistemic uncertainty relative to the 2003 model, and our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new measures we have introduced to address heterogeneities in network detection and systematically evaluate forecast performance.

Released December 12, 2025 09:03 EST

2025, Mineralium Deposita

George N.D. Case

Increasing demand for graphite in energy storage systems warrants review of graphite ore genesis in a mineral systems framework. Orogenic graphite encompasses the metamorphic and orogenic mineral systems that produce flake graphite and hydrothermal vein (lump and chip) graphite deposits, respectively. A common feature of orogenic graphite deposits is an association with upper amphibolite- to granulite-facies metasedimentary rocks in continent-continent or continent-island arc collisional orogens. Orogenic flake graphite deposits form primarily through graphitization of organic carbon during regional metamorphism, but strain localization and partial melting of pelitic protoliths are likely important processes for graphite grade and quality enrichment. Orogenic vein graphite deposits precipitate from hydrothermal fluids, possibly derived from metamorphism or anatexis at depth. Decarbonation reactions in mixed calcareous-carbonaceous metasedimentary sequences are the most likely carbon sources for the veins. In contrast, intrusion-related graphite includes magmatic-hydrothermal and metamorphic mineral systems that form primarily in continental arc settings via the interaction of magmas with carbonaceous sedimentary packages. Magmatic-hydrothermal flake graphite deposits are hosted in plutonic and volcanic rocks, and result from the exsolution of CO₂-CH₄-rich fluids from melts contaminated by such packages. Contact metamorphism of carbonaceous sedimentary rocks by plutons produces some microcrystalline (amorphous) graphite deposits, including many in China. Compilation of geologic data from known graphite deposits globally suggests that pulses of carbon deposition in the Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic provided source carbon material. Subsequent supercontinent orogenesis at ca. 2,100 to 1,700 Ma (Columbia), ca. 1,300 to 1,000 Ma (Rodinia), and ca. 650 to 500 Ma (Gondwana) resulted in the genesis of orogenic flake and vein graphite deposits, where favorable geologic components overlapped with organic ± carbonate carbon-rich strata. Cryogenian deposition of graphite protoliths and Cryogenian – Cambrian metamorphic mineralization account for nearly 75% of all known resources globally and coincide with profound carbon isotope excursions and climate variability, implying a link with the global carbon budget. Comparatively few graphite deposits are associated with Pangea-forming orogens, attributed to less exhumation and/or denudation. High-temperature metasedimentary belts containing organic carbon-rich protoliths are most favorable for hosting orogenic flake graphite deposits, whereas sequences that also contain carbonate protoliths are favorable for orogenic graphite veins. Continent-scale orogenic belts may host both deposit types along with vanadium deposits. Use of a time-space mineral systems framework for graphite deposits can improve exploration models needed to ensure future supply of this critical mineral and provide insights into Earth’s long-term carbon cycle.

Released December 11, 2025 09:41 EST

2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Ian P. Stone, Erin A. Wirth, Alex R. Grant, Arthur D. Frankel

We simulate ground shaking in western Washington State from hypothetical  M_w7.0–7.5 earthquakes on the southern Whidbey Island fault (SWIF). Ground motions are modeled considering kinematic source distributions on a complex fault plane, a 3D seismic velocity model, and region‐specific soil velocity models. We run simulations with varying model resolutions, including regional‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼1 Hz and local‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼2.5 Hz. Additional local‐scale simulations are run considering high‐resolution surface topography. We explore how source parameters (i.e., magnitude, hypocenter location, and dip direction) and 3D velocity structure impact peak shaking intensity and its variability. In particular, we find that earthquakes on the SWIF would likely produce strong shaking throughout the populated Puget Lowland, including in the cities of Everett, Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma, Washington. Simulated short‐period (T ≤ 2 s) spectral accelerations are strong throughout the Puget Lowland, and long‐period shaking (T ≥ 5 s) is strong in the deep regional sedimentary basins, especially the Everett and Seattle basins. Source parameters strongly influence intra‐ and interevent variability in response, primarily through changes in source and site geometry, as well as rupture directivity. We also note a potential coupling between rupture directivity and basin effects, wherein directivity pulses are seemingly guided through the region’s deep, interconnected sedimentary basins. Overall, this work highlights the impacts of 3D source, path, and site effects on seismic hazard in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and substantially expands the catalog of simulated ground motions for Puget Sound area crustal faults.

Released December 11, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, International Journal of Wildland Fire (34)

Casey Elizabeth Menick, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Joshua J. Picotte, Alicia L. Reiner, Robert A. Chastain

Phenological correction of pre- and post-fire imagery is used to improve remotely sensed burn severity evaluations. Unburned offset values standardize greenness between image pairs; however, efficacy across diverse scenarios remains underexplored.

We evaluated the impact of phenological offset correction methods to support analyst decision-making across fire-prone environments.

We generated burn severity spectral index values for a dataset of Composite Burn Index (CBI) field plots across the conterminous US. The effectiveness of offset corrections was tested across image selection techniques, spectral indices, offset generation methods and burn perimeter sources. We assessed the influence of offset corrections on the modeled relationship with CBI, agreement between burn severity thresholds and potential bias.

Applying offset corrections consistently improved the modeled relationship with CBI by addressing extreme outlier severity values. However, automated offset corrections had the potential to introduce bias, systematically lowering severity values and reducing correspondence with observed burn severity categories.

Offset corrections offer benefits but also present trade-offs to accurately representing remotely sensed burn severity.

The utility of offset corrections depends on the environment, methods and scale of analysis. We propose a decision-tree framework for analysts to consider when employing offset corrections given their study scope.

Released December 11, 2025 09:01 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Graziella Vittoria DiRenzo, Rebecca McCaffery, Ana V. Longo, Kelly R. Zamudio, Karen R. Lips

Emerging infectious diseases can cause rapid, widespread host mortality, and the lack of demographic data before and after pathogen emergence complicates understanding mechanisms of host persistence. This challenge is further compounded by environmental conditions that influence host behavior, while driving pathogen growth and virulence. These interactions create complex disease outcomes that hinder predictions of when and how hosts endure pathogen outbreaks. Here, we analyzed 10 years of capture-mark-recapture data (2000–2014) spanning wet and dry seasons for male Espadarana prosoblepon in El Copé, Panama, encompassing a period before (2000–2004) and after (2010–2014) a Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) outbreak using Jolly-Seber models. We found that post-Bd male E. prosoblepon population size (range in mean population size among primary periods = 136–225 individuals) was similar to pre-Bd population size (range in mean population size among primary periods = 201–242 individuals). Pre-Bd, average monthly survival probability in the wet season was 0.93 (95% credible interval [CI] = 0.90–0.96). Post-Bd, uninfected individuals had survival probability higher in the wet season (mean = 0.97; [95% CI = 0.95–0.98]) than the dry season (mean = 0.90 [95% CI = 0.84–0.94]), while survival probability for infected individuals decreased as a function of Bd infection intensity. Pre-Bd, mean monthly per-capita entry probability was 0.07 (95% CI = 0.05–0.10), and post-Bd, mean monthly per-capita entry probability was 0.06 (95% CI = 0.00–0.10). Lastly, infection probability during the wet season was lower (mean = 0.04 [95% CI = 0.03–0.05]) than the dry season (mean = 0.10 [95% CI = 0.05–0.15]), and recovery probability during the wet season was lower (mean = 0.19 [95% CI = 0.11–0.28]) than the dry season (mean = 0.54 [95% CI = 0.20–0.88]). Our findings suggest that survival probabilities of uninfected individuals, as well as per-capita entry probabilities, are similar pre- and post-Bd, leading to a stable and similar sized pre-Bd population. These results contribute to understanding disease dynamics and tropical amphibian ecology.

Released December 11, 2025 08:50 EST

2025, Stacks Journal (2025)

Erin K. Buchholtz, Andrew Jamison, Greg Yarrow

Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) pose considerable ecological and economic challenges across their introduced range, and understanding their spatial ecology is critical for management. This research and accompanying dataset represents adult wild pig movement in South Carolina, United States based on 16 individuals collared in 2023-2024. Using hourly GPS collar data for 6 males and 5 females, we calculated autocorrelated kernel density estimates (AKDEs) and monthly kernel density estimates (KDEs) to characterize space use. Individual pigs had an average hourly step length of 83 m and average net displacement of 930 m. On average, pigs used 2.32 km² monthly, while they used 2.95 km² over their entire tracked period (mean = 111 days). This work aims to support management actions and future research on invasive wild pigs.

Released December 10, 2025 13:40 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1056

Deborah Bergfeld, Jennifer L. Lewicki, Sara Peek, Andrew Hunt

This report presents chemical and isotopic compositions of volcanic gases collected from thermal areas within Lassen Volcanic National Park in northern California from 1974 through 2019. As the southernmost volcano in the Cascade Range and designated a very-high-threat volcano by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC) requires consistent monitoring to assess potential volcanic hazards. In 2014, the California Volcano Observatory established a gas geochemical monitoring program at LVC to provide baseline data to evaluate future changes. Results demonstrate consistent spatial patterns in bulk gas chemistry that support a two-circulation-cell hydrothermal model previously established for LVC. Gas samples from circulation cell 1 thermal areas have higher helium isotope ratios (6.59–7.50 times the air value) than those from circulation cell 2 (5.86–6.52 times the air value), indicating a stronger magmatic signature. The Sulphur Works and Pilot Pinnacle thermal areas within circulation cell 1 consistently emit gases with the highest magmatic helium contents, suggesting gas at these areas best represents conditions in the underlying volcanic system. A slight decrease in helium isotope values since 1974 may indicate progressive dilution of magmatic helium-3 (3He) by radiogenic helium-4 (4He) in the absence of recent magma intrusion. Carbon isotope compositions of carbon dioxide across all thermal areas are relatively uniform (−9.7–−7.3 per mil), falling within the range observed at other Cascade Range volcanoes. Based on gas geochemical characteristics and site accessibility, the Sulphur Works and Pilot Pinnacle thermal areas represent optimal targets for continued monitoring of the LVC magmatic-hydrothermal system. This study includes the most comprehensive helium isotope dataset collected at LVC currently available and establishes critical baseline data for future volcanic monitoring efforts.

Released December 10, 2025 09:50 EST

2025, Mineralium Deposita

Allen K. Andersen, Michael Jenkins

Exploration continues for contact-style Ni-Cu sulfide and chromitite-associated PGE mineralization in ultramafic rocks of the Stillwater Complex. At the Iron and Chrome Mountain areas, massive sulfides occur along the complex’s footwall contact and anomalous concentrations of PGE+Au are associated with the three lowermost chromitite seams. Southeast of Chrome Mountain, magmatic layering is highly disrupted by the presence of faults, magmatic breccias, serpentinized discordant dunites, pyroxenite pegmatoids, and disaggregated chromitite seams. The bulk rock chemistry, sulfide chemistry, and noble metal mineralogy of samples from this area were examined to determine the deportment of PGE and processes that led to enrichments in PGE, Au, Cu, Co and Ni. Results show that a sulfide liquid was the principal collector of PGE. If sulfide liquid was initially deposited with chromite, it was disaggregated or redistributed by subsequent melt or fluid infiltration, which may have resulted in the offset of peak PGE(+Cu, Ni) from peak Cr₂O₃ concentrations, and upgraded PGE tenors. Upon cooling, PGE exsolved from sulfides to form discrete bismuth tellurides, arsenides, arsenic sulfides, antimonides, and alloys, commonly along the margins of sulfide globules. Calculated metal tenors are highest in the disseminated sulfides southwest of Chrome Mountain, whereas massive and net-textured sulfides near the Iron Mountain-Camp zone represent monosulfide solid solution cumulates. At progressively shallower levels, higher metal tenors combined with lower S/Se ratios are consistent with increasing R-factors from 100 to 100,000. Serpentinization and talc-tremolite alteration resulted in S loss through partial replacement of sulfides by secondary silicate+carbonate+magnetite+sulfide assemblages, further upgrading Ni-Cu-PGE tenors. The present work shows that processes responsible for the disruption of magmatic layering and post-magmatic fluid alteration along the intrusion’s lower contact led to noble and base metal enrichments.

Released December 10, 2025 09:35 EST

2025, npj Artificial Intelligence (1)

David Kohler, David Rügamer, Lindsey J. Boyle, Kelly O. Maloney, Matthias Schmid

Machine learning (ML) models are often based on complex black-box architectures that are difficult to interpret. This interpretability problem can hinder the use of ML in fields like medicine, ecology, and insurance, and has boosted research in interpretable machine learning (IML). Here, we propose a novel approach for the functional decomposition of black-box predictions, which is a core concept of IML. This approach replaces the prediction function with a surrogate model consisting of simpler subfunctions, providing insights into the direction and strength of the main feature contributions and their interactions. Our method is based on a concept termed “stacked orthogonality”, which ensures that the main effects capture as much functional behavior as possible. To compute the subfunctions, we combine neural additive modeling with an efficient post-hoc orthogonalization procedure. Our method yielded plausible results in an analysis of stream biological condition in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (United States).

Released December 10, 2025 09:34 EST

2025, Conservation Physiology (13)

Amy M. Regish, Matthew O’Donnell, Benjamin Letcher, Timothy Lambert, Daniel J. Hall, Stephen D. McCormick

Climate change has resulted in increased incidence and variability of warming episodes in cold-water streams that support salmonids. The capacity to acclimate to warm temperatures may allow cold-water fish to persist in spite of changing thermal regimes, but accurately predicting fish performance under fluctuating stream temperatures also requires understanding re-acclimation to cool water, which is less well understood. We tested how thermal acclimation to warm temperatures and re-acclimation to cool water affected thermal tolerance and physiological endpoints in juvenile brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We show that an initial thermal exposure (22°C, ΔT = 7°C) of 3, 7 and 14 days (but not 1 day) improved critical thermal maximum (CT_max) after a 14-day re-acclimation to cooler temperatures (15°C). Fish growth during the re-acclimation period decreased with increasing duration of initial thermal exposure (22°C). Physiological parameters associated with thermal acclimation (cortisol, glucose, haematocrit and haemoglobin) were lower at 15°C re-acclimation temperature than at the initial thermal treatment (22°C) and in some cases, lower than the 15°C control. Muscle HSP70 protein increased early (1 day) as part of the warm acclimation process and remained elevated at lower levels for up to 14 days. During re-acclimation to 15°C, HSP70 decreased relative to initial measures at 22°C. Fish exposed to the longest thermal treatment (22°C for 14 days) maintained elevated CT_max after 30 days of re-acclimation to 15°C without observed differences in the measured physiological endpoints but returned to control levels after 42 days at 15°C. This work shows that high-temperature acclimation effects in brook trout are retained for up to 30 days following re-acclimation to cool temperatures, and that isolated warming events may be expected to temporarily enhance thermal tolerance in subsequent thermal challenges.

Released December 10, 2025 09:14 EST

2026, Bulletin of Volcanology (88)

Steven P. Lundblad, Peter R. Mills, Kendra J. Lynn, Elisabeth Gallant, Cheryl Gansecki, Meghann Decker, Drew T. Downs

Syn-eruption geochemical monitoring during volcanic activity is an important component of integrated volcanic monitoring. Volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i are primarily monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory using instrumental networks, field surveys, satellite observations, and petrologic monitoring. In collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo, an important component of this monitoring is near-real-time (generally within 24 h of sample collection) bulk-rock geochemistry using benchtop energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF). Bulk-rock geochemistry, coupled with additional petrologic and geophysical analyses, are used to track eruption dynamics to help facilitate identification and understanding of changes that signal the onset of potentially hazardous activity. In this paper, we present EDXRF methodology for bulk-rock analysis used to evaluate the 2018 Kīlauea and 2022 Mauna Loa eruptions and compare this technique to other geochemical methods. Syn-eruption geochemical monitoring using EDXRF provides reliable quantitative data that is important for understanding eruption dynamics. Critical to this process are calibrating the instrument for analysis over the same range of compositions expected during volcanic activity, compiling a relevant database from past eruptions on the same instrument for comparison, and having the physical infrastructure and trained personnel to complete the analyses in a timely fashion. In addition to the scientific goals of petrologic monitoring, near-real-time geochemical analysis in Hawaii provides important information about the nature of on-going eruptions and informs decision-makers and the public about associated evolving hazards.

Released December 10, 2025 08:31 EST

2026, Marine Pollution Bulletin

Bria Bleil, Elise F. Granek, Nathan L. Kirk, Michelle Hladik

Widespread pesticide and herbicide use paired with frequent transport away from application sites has led to pesticide presence in nearly all terrestrial and aquatic environments globally. Pesticides have unintentional toxic effects on non-target organisms by interfering with cellular processes, behavior, feeding, reproduction, and disrupting endocrine processes. The aggregating anemone, Anthopleura elegantissima, is an important species along the North American Pacific coast due to its symbiotic relationships that contribute to high productivity, and its clonal abundance that structures the rocky intertidal habitat. Commonly used pesticides, atrazine, diuron, and carbendazim were previously detected in coastal waters of Oregon, U.S.A. This study examined the potential effects of these pesticides at environmentally relevant concentrations on reproduction, symbionts, and behavior of A. elegantissima over an eight-week period. Pesticides significantly decreased gonad development in all treatments, having the most significant effect in individual treatments of atrazine (p = 0.003), carbendazim (p = 0.003), and the mixture of all three pesticides (p = 0.008). All pesticide treatments significantly increased cloning behavior compared to the control, suggesting that cloning could be a stress response. Pesticide exposure also significantly increased tentacle retraction movement, suggesting possible metabolic or energy impairments. While other studies have previously found behavioral changes in anemones due to pollutants, our study is the first to document behavioral changes in anemones from pesticide exposure. All three pesticides significantly impacted a non-target marine invertebrate at environmentally relevant concentrations, which underscores the value of studies that focus on effects on marine invertebrates, paired with comprehensive pesticide monitoring in coastal areas.

Released December 09, 2025 16:20 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1055

Brian D. Healy, Corey C. Phillis, Brian Mahardja, Cameron Koizumi, Catarina Pien, Nancy Parker, J. Louise Conrad, Julie Ekstrom, Julie Leimbach, Rafael Silberblatt, Tom Fischer, Chase Ehlo

Managers of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Projects (SWP) in California are confronted with difficult tradeoffs between water uses and associated values affected by water management decisions. These decisions involve altering the timing and magnitude of water releases from dams and reservoirs, which can affect habitats for economically important and Federally and State-listed endangered fish species, water deliveries for agriculture or municipalities, and water quality. In this report, we describe the results of a rapid structured decision-making process used to assist management agencies in evaluating tradeoffs while gathering input from cooperating agencies, rightsholders, or interested parties (hereafter participants) through facilitated workshops in spring 2025. Consideration of alternative water management actions was initiated by the continued decline of Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) populations and the issuance of a new biological opinion for the CVP and SWP long-term operations on the effects on delta smelt and other Endangered Species Act-listed species in November 2024. An Executive Order was also issued in January 2025, directing the Bureau of Reclamation to maximize water deliveries. Participants, led by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating agencies, identified 8 fundamental values (hereafter objectives) and 11 alternative water management scenarios (or “alternative management actions” based on the PrOACT model). Using multicriteria decision analysis, we evaluated performance (or “consequences” based on a consequence table analysis) and analyzed tradeoffs of alternative water management actions to the fundamental objectives. We ranked the alternative water management actions based on four participants’ objective weights and composite utility scores calculated using a linear value function. The three highest ranking alternative water management actions had the poorest performance for delta smelt but performed best for CVP and SWP water exports and objectives related to coldwater pool operations for salmonids. An optimum strategy that could prevent the extinction of delta smelt was not determined for this study. However, insights gained from our rapid decision analysis suggested nonflow scenarios could benefit the delta smelt population, including in drier years, and could be considered to avoid curtailment of water exports.

Released December 09, 2025 16:10 EST

2025, General Information Product 263

Shonte Jenkins, Emily Pindilli, David Applegate, Rachel E. Reagan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy.¹

Mapping the Nation

$21B
     Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B.
$25.6B
     is the annual value to users of key Earth observation platforms like Landsat, which is managed by the USGS.
$13.5B
     in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program.

Securing America’s Energy Independence

44%
     USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation.
29.4B
     barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments.

Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety

$424B
     in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk.
     USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption.
$4.5B
     is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property.

Supporting National Security

$3.1B
     The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list.

Enhancing Our Lands and Waters

$21B
     in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation.
     USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone.
$45B
     USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy.

Fostering American Prosperity

$4.1T
     Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued.
45,000 metric tons
     Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply.

Guarding American Food Security

$70.2B
     USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production.
$11.8B
     USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry.

¹Values are given in billions (B) and millions (M) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

Released December 09, 2025 10:07 EST

2025, Communications Earth & Environment (6)

Jhardel Dasent, Vashan Wright, Katherine M. Scharer, Michael Manga, Richard Kilburn

Many subsurface processes involve transitions in granular material states, from arrested to creeping to flowing. Experiments and frameworks for idealized systems reveal that granular fabrics develop during shearing, co-evolve with applied stress, and govern such transitions. We use microtomography to test whether fabrics at two San Andreas fault sites reflect slip history and whether idealized frameworks extend to nature. Near-surface sediments within the fault zone transition between deformation patterns over the seismic cycle, including bulk/localized grain re-arrangements, individual grain fracturing, and localized zones of fracturing. Aseismic and co-seismic shearing produce distinct preferred grain orientations. Co-seismic fabrics can be preserved after centuries of aseismic strain, aseismic fabrics may be overprinted, and grain size and coordination number influence the fabrics. Idealized frameworks, namely anisotropic critical state theory, frictional jamming, and material memory, can explain our observations, and fault zone sediments likely undergo cycles of memory creation and erasure that influence rigidity spatiotemporally.

Released December 09, 2025 08:42 EST

2026, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (198)

Wilson Barg Salls, Robert J. Welk, Tyler V. King, Natasha Scavotto, Rebecca Michelle Gorney, Sabina R. Gifford, Michael D.W. Stouder, Elizabeth A. Nystrom, Jennifer L. Graham

Monitoring cyanobacteria and other nuisance phytoplankton in the Hudson River is of great interest given its societal and ecological importance. Satellite remote sensing provides a cost-effective method to monitor chlorophyll-a (chl-a), a common proxy for algal biomass; however, the dynamic nature of rivers complicates approaches traditionally applied to lakes and oceans. During 2021–2023, we collected discrete samples for laboratory measurement of chl-a and measured in situ chl-a fluorescence during a series of longitudinal boat surveys along a 220-km reach of the lower Hudson River. Surveys were timed to coincide with Sentinel-2 satellite overpasses. We first investigated relations between laboratory-measured chl-a concentration and field-measured chl-a fluorescence, observing a weak correlation (r² = 0.25) that improved substantially after splitting data by day (mean r² = 0.53). Separately, to estimate chl-a fluorescence using satellite data, we developed a series of random forest models leveraging the rich fluorescence dataset collected. We tested three model types: individual day models, leave-one-out models trained on all days except a holdout test day, and a single pooled model trained on all days. Generally, individual day models exhibited lowest error (mean of mean absolute error [MAE] = 0.16 relative fluorescence units [RFU]), followed by the single pooled model (MAE = 0.22 RFU). Daily holdout models showed highest error (mean MAE = 0.40 RFU); this approach was intended to represent model performance on a day unseen in the training set, providing a more conservative estimate of performance than the more traditional pooled approach. Findings from both analyses emphasize the importance of considering temporal variability when modeling riverine systems.

Released December 08, 2025 13:13 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5086

Kendall M.F. Goldstein, Kyle W. Davis

The Iowa River alluvial aquifer is an important source of water on the Meskwaki Settlement in Tama County, Iowa, which is land owned by the Sac & Fox Tribe of the Mississippi in Iowa (commonly known as the Meskwaki Nation). The U.S. Geological Survey constructed a groundwater flow model, including a conceptual and numerical model, of the Iowa River alluvial aquifer and underlying hydrogeologic units near the Meskwaki Settlement in Tama County, Iowa, for the period of January 1980–August 2022 to estimate the fraction of water pumped from the Iowa River alluvial aquifer by Meskwaki Settlement wells that is derived from streamflow depletion in the Iowa River and its tributaries. Streamflow depletion is a reduction in streamflow caused by groundwater pumping and includes the interception by groundwater production wells of water that otherwise would have been discharged to streams (called “captured groundwater discharge”) and induced infiltration of streamflow to the production wells. Calibrated model runs were performed with no simulated pumping and simulated pumping only at Meskwaki Settlement wells, and the change in simulated flow rates between the groundwater system and streams for the two model runs represents the amount of streamflow depletion in the Iowa River and tributary streams resulting from pumping at the Meskwaki Settlement wells. Streamflow depletion in the Iowa River and its tributaries as a percentage of simulated pumping at the Meskwaki Settlement wells was calculated by dividing this difference by the total simulated pumping rate for the Meskwaki Settlement wells. The model results demonstrate that the mean monthly streamflow depletion, including induced infiltration and captured discharge, in the Iowa River and its tributary streams as a percentage of mean monthly pumping at the Meskwaki Settlement wells was 97.4 percent and ranged from 65.4 to 112 percent. Of the total streamflow depletion, mean monthly induced recharge was 20.9 percent and ranged from 4.9 to 37.2 percent. Mean monthly captured discharge was 76.5 percent and ranged from 57.1 to 97.1 percent. These results indicate that most of the water pumped from the Meskwaki Settlement wells is the result of streamflow depletion, in the form of both induced infiltration and captured discharge.

Released December 08, 2025 10:38 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Map 3541

Jade Ziqiu Zhang, Corinne Renshaw

Miami-Dade County is part of a densely populated urban corridor in southeastern Florida. The Biscayne aquifer serves as Miami-Dade County’s primary drinking water source and is characterized by highly permeable karstic limestone and carbonate sand. The aquifer’s coastal location and permeable nature make it susceptible to saltwater intrusion. Monitoring the current inland extent and the rate of movement of the saltwater front in the aquifer can inform management strategies for conserving the long-term sustainability of the county’s water supply. In the 1950s, the U.S. Geological Survey published a map of the inland extent of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer and has continued to update this map to monitor changes over time, with the most recent update published in 2018. An updated map has been created showing the approximate inland extent of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer in eastern Miami-Dade County in 2022, with the 2018 extent shown for comparison. The inland extent of saltwater intrusion was mapped through the interpretation of borehole electromagnetic induction logs and measurements of chloride and specific conductance in groundwater samples. The location of the saltwater interface at the base of the Biscayne aquifer was represented by the 1,000-milligram-per-liter isochlor. This report describes changes in the location of the saltwater interface from 2018 to 2022. By 2022, the saltwater interface had moved farther inland in both the northern and southern parts of the county, advancing by as much as 0.3 kilometer in the north and up to 0.8 kilometer in the Model Land Area to the south. However, it remained relatively unchanged from its 2018 position in the east-central part of the county.

Released December 08, 2025 10:06 EST

2025, Ecological Applications (35)

Jonathan P. Rose, Allison M. Nguyen, Anna Jordan, Daniel Antonio Macias, Elliot James Schoenig, Giancarlo Ray Napolitano, Richard Kim, Julia S.M. Ersan, Alexandria M. Fulton, Brian Halstead

Integration of agroecosystems and other working landscapes with protected lands and waters is critical to the conservation of Earth's biodiversity. Rice agroecosystems support many species by providing aquatic habitat where natural wetlands have been altered or drained. In regions with long dry seasons, rice fields and associated irrigation canals provide essential habitat for wetland-dependent species. We quantified the spatial scale and magnitude of the effect of rice growing on the growth and survival of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species that persists primarily in areas of rice agriculture in the Central Valley of California, USA. We used structural causal models to identify drought condition as a key confounder to adjust for when estimating the total effect of rice growing on demographic rates. We analyzed capture-mark-recapture data from 19 populations of giant gartersnakes with an integrated growth–survival model and used distance-weighted covariates to account for the decline in influence of rice with increasing distance from our study sites. We found strong support for a positive effect of rice grown within 1.9 km of a canal on giant gartersnake growth. There was also support for a positive effect of rice on giant gartersnake survival, although the spatial scale extended out to 5 km or more. Our results demonstrate how active rice growing benefits giant gartersnakes inhabiting irrigation canals and demonstrate an approach for studying landscape effects on wildlife in agroecosystems.

Released December 08, 2025 10:04 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Andrea N. Casey, Matthew A. Mensinger, Joseph D. Zydlewski

Released December 08, 2025 09:01 EST

2025, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science (23)

Samantha C. McGill, Jessica R. Lacy

Sediment bulk density (ρ-dry) and particle size are two important parameters for predicting sediment bed erosion. ρ-dry, however, is difficult to measure accurately. The units of ρdry have not been consistently reported in the literature, leading to confusion, particularly in the calculation of sediment budgets that typically require integrating mass-based and volumetric components. Relationships between ρdry and sediment composition have been developed for multiple regions and differ between systems. Developing a system-specific predictive model for ρdry can help fill data gaps and improve sediment budgets, model accuracy, and estimates of quantities of sediment needed for restoration. In this study, we investigate whether ρdry in San Francisco Estuary can be predicted from organic carbon content or percent of fines, which are more easily or frequently measured than ρdry. We compiled sediment properties from samples collected over the past decade throughout the intertidal and subtidal regions of San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta to examine this relationship. Sample composition ranged from 2.18 to 99.97% fines (particles < 0.0625 mm), ρ-dry ranged from 0.22 to 1.60 g cm-3, and organic carbon ranged from 0.06 to 7.98%. Regression analysis indicates that the percent of fines explains 93% of the variation of ρ-dry (p-value < 0.05, N = 81). The coefficient of determination decreased by ~1% when organic carbon was incorporated in the regression analysis. Comparison of this predictive ρ-dry model to four published models based on samples from other regions supports previous findings that the relationship between ρdry and grain size may vary by system. We also examined additional factors that may affect sediment erodibility, such as hydrographic and oceanographic conditions. Classification of sample sites as intertidal vs. subtidal or wavy vs. non-wavy each significantly explained the residuals from the ρdry model, and both intertidal and wavy conditions were associated with higher ρ-dry values.

Released December 08, 2025 06:36 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5091

Erin L. Gray, Christina L. Ferguson

The Lee Acres Landfill and Giant Bloomfield Refinery are adjacent properties near the City of Farmington, New Mexico, each having undergone monitoring and remediation related to historical site activities. At the landfill, site cleanup has included the installation of a capillary barrier over former liquid waste lagoons and periodic monitoring of groundwater elevations and groundwater quality. At the refinery, remediation has focused on several petrochemical and crude oil release areas and included soil excavation, groundwater treatment, and regular monitoring of groundwater elevations and quality. Groundwater at both sites has higher concentrations of volatile organic compounds and trace metals than background aquifer concentrations. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey compiled the Lee Acres-Giant Bloomfield Refinery Database (LAGBRD), which contains publicly available groundwater-elevation data and organic and inorganic groundwater-quality data from both sites, spanning from 1985 to 2020. Data from the LAGBRD and precipitation data from other sources were used to better understand the cause of relatively high manganese concentrations observed in some groundwater wells at the site through comparison of groundwater chemistry to chemical end members, interpretation of spatial and temporal patterns in the groundwater chemistry, and interpretation of groundwater flow properties. In this study, elevated chloride concentrations in groundwater downgradient from the landfill have been attributed to landfill leachate based on the temporal and spatial variability of chloride concentrations and chloride-to-bromide ratios. Installation of a capillary barrier and surface-water runoff controls at the landfill in 2005 appears to have altered infiltration patterns at that site, resulting in a decrease in chloride at some wells but an increase in chloride and dissolved manganese at others. The timing and relation among groundwater elevation, chloride concentration, and manganese concentration suggest that leachate stored in the vadose zone provides a continued source of contamination to groundwater.

Released December 05, 2025 10:12 EST

2025, Frontiers in Marine Science (12)

Kristen Hart, Connor F. White, Donna J. Shaver, Margaret Lamont, Michael Cherkiss, Andrew G. Crowder, Nicholas M. Whitney

Quantifying sea turtle nesting behavior is essential for recovery planning and evaluating management actions. Traditional monitoring approaches, based on nest counts from beach surveys, can misclassify non-nesting emergences, obscure true fecundity, and underestimate clutch frequency, metrics that directly influence population models and regulatory decisions. Here, we demonstrate that high-resolution acceleration data loggers (ADLs) can reliably discriminate nesting from non-nesting emergences across four imperiled species of sea turtles at sites in the Gulf of America, southeast USA, and Caribbean. From 60 recovered ADL deployments on green (Chelonia mydas; N = 10), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata; N = 7), Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii; N = 21), and loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta; N = 22) lasting on average 17.5 ± 8.7 days (range 2–43 days), we identified 54 nesting events and 76 non-nesting emergences, with >97% accuracy when compared to direct observations. These data provide the first observer-validated, species-specific behavioral signatures of nesting phases and reveal correlations between egg-laying duration and clutch size. All non-nesting emergences occurred within 72 hours of subsequent nesting, allowing managers to anticipate nest deposition windows. By refining inter-nesting intervals and fecundity estimates, ADLs offer a practical path to reduce error in clutch frequency estimates. The integration of ADL-derived algorithms with satellite-transmitting tags would enable the remote, real-time monitoring of nesting activity, creating a system for the remote monitoring of inter-nesting intervals and nest fecundity that are crucial to quantify the impacts of climate change and other threats to sea turtle nesting habitat.

Released December 05, 2025 10:01 EST

2026, Bulletin of Volcanology (88)

Brett B. Carr, Matthew R. Patrick, Hannah R. Dietterich, Michael H. Zoeller, Carolyn Parcheta, Drew T. Downs, Patricia A. Nadeau, Christoper Hamilton

We investigate the growth of a passive lava lake in Halemaʻumaʻu crater during the December 2020 to May 2021 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii. Fed by vents above their surfaces, the formation of passive lava lakes in topographic lows is an important process in the growth of basaltic volcanoes. We captured visible and thermal images during 17 helicopter overflights and applied structure-from-motion photogrammetry to create digital elevation models and orthomosaics of Halemaʻumaʻu. These data products allowed us to track eruptive activity and processes. The bulk time-averaged discharge rate (TADR) in December 2020 initially exceeded 100 m³ s^–1 but decreased to < 10 m³ s^–1 within seven days. By February 2021, TADR was < 2 m³ s^–1 and continued to decrease until the eruption ended in May 2021. A total volume of 40.6 ± 0.5 × 10⁶ m³ of lava filled Halemaʻumaʻu to a depth of 225 m. As TADR decreased, the lake progressively developed an immobile, solidified crust, beginning with surfaces farthest from the vent. This immobile surface rose endogenously, whereas exogenous surface rise occurred near the vent. Eruptive activity at a vent ended when the level of the lake surface exceeded that of the vent, which we attribute to the effects of lava sitting above the vent on ascending magma. Regular helicopter overflights, combined with field observations and the extensive monitoring network at Kīlauea, generated an unprecedented density of observations that provide insights into the emplacement of passive lava lakes and how these eruptions wane and end.

Released December 05, 2025 09:59 EST

2026, Ecological Engineering (224)

Aaron J. Porter, Christopher M. Ruck, Spencer John Tassone

Regulatory mandates to improve water quality and stream health have driven substantial investment in stream restoration. Most projects aim to improve channel-floodplain connectivity, reduce sediment erosion, and enhance habitat for aquatic organisms, yet few include adequate pre- and post-restoration monitoring to assess outcomes. Since 2007, Fairfax County, Virginia, and the U.S. Geological Survey have partnered to monitor and evaluate water-quality conditions in Flatlick Branch. In 2018, a 1.72-km reach of stream above the monitoring station was restored using a Natural Channel Design approach. This study applied the Stream Functions Pyramid (SFP) framework to evaluate restoration tradeoffs. Post-restoration, watershed hydrology remained largely unchanged, but channel modifications increased flow capacity, reduced velocity, and further disconnected the channel from the floodplain. Nutrient and sediment reductions exceeded expected amounts, but the removal of over 20 % of riparian tree canopy increased physicochemical variability and the frequency and magnitude of water temperature heatwaves. Post-restoration, state standards for low dissolved oxygen and elevated pH were exceeded 2.5 and 7.5 times more often, respectively. Gross primary production and ecosystem respiration increased and organic matter sources supporting metabolism shifted from allochthonous to autochthonous. Trends in several benthic macroinvertebrate metrics, which were improving prior to construction, have since plateaued or declined, and the fish assemblage shifted from a native minnow dominated community to non-native, warmwater tolerant taxa. This study highlights the need for comprehensive assessments of stream restoration and benefits of using the SFP to understand the consequences and possible tradeoffs of different ecosystem management decisions.

Released December 05, 2025 09:43 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3041

Ryan C. McCammon, Noel A. Deyette, Gregory A. Wetherbee

The National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) collects atmospheric data to monitor air pollution effects on the quality of United States water supplies and ecosystems. The NADP requires consistent data collection at fixed locations and is governed by a committee with participation by many Federal and State agencies, universities, Tribes, and private companies. NADP conducts a spring business meeting where the Network Operations, Education and Outreach, and multiple science subcommittees adjourn to discuss all aspects of NADP. Similar to the spring meeting, a fall meeting occurs with the addition of a two-day scientific symposium where scientists present their research using NADP data.

Released December 05, 2025 09:35 EST

2025, Report

Cecily M. Costello, Justin A. Dellinger, Jennifer K. Fortin-Noreus, Mark Haroldson, Bryn Karabensh, Wayne F. Kasworm, Lori L. Roberts, Justin E. Teisberg, Frank T. van Manen, Tyler J. Vent

Understanding the distribution of grizzly bear populations in the lower-48 states, is important for their conservation and management, and for public safety. Previously, our research teams working in grizzly bear ecosystems in the lower-48 states used varying methods to estimate distribution of grizzly bear populations. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) and Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), zonal analysis and ordinary kriging were applied to an array of grid cells with or without verified presence of grizzly bears, however the parameters of the methods varied between the two ecosystems. In the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) and the Selkirk Ecosystem (SE), population distribution was mapped as the Recovery Zone plus “bears outside of Recovery Zone” areas (Allen 2011). Additionally, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service developed a method for estimating areas where grizzly bears “may be present” to help agencies or prospective applicants evaluate whether or not proposed actions may affect grizzly bears (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2020). Since the mid 2010s, cooperating agencies have collaborated in documenting and maintaining a database of verified outlier observations that occur between or well outside of grizzly bear Recovery Zones and these data inform the “may be present” mapping.

Released December 05, 2025 09:22 EST

2025, Gulf and Caribbean Research (36) 38-48

Theodore J. Zenzal Jr., Amanda Nicole Anderson, Brock Geary, Jessica Schulz, Robert C. Dobbs, Wylie C. Barrow, Hardin Waddle

Animal populations often experience acute natural disturbances, most of which are connected to short—term weather events. Occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones during the peak of the avian breeding season are likely to increase with climate change, which can substantially impact populations of coastal breeding birds at multiple scales. To understand the acute impacts of severe tropical cyclones, we investigated how abundances of breeding birds changed before and after 4 early season named tropical cyclones on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico. We detected a change in pre— versus post—storm numbers of breeding birds after 2 out of 4 storms between 2015–2020. Following Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Barry, significant declines in breeding adults ranged from a reduction of 32 Willets (Tringa semipalmata) to 105 Wilson’s Plover (Anarhynchus wilsonia) and 18 Willets to 1,794 Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), respectively. The lack of response following 2 storms was likely due to the location of the storms relative to the island. Following the 2 storms that did elicit a response by breeding birds, we observed lower abundances in the majority of species after the storm passed. Species life histories and habitat restoration might explain the species—specific responses we observed. Our study documents occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones negatively affecting coastal breeding birds, which could be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, our findings may provide insights regarding island design and nest susceptibility to flooding events, which may aid land managers as well as conservation and restoration planners.

Released December 04, 2025 10:27 EST

2025, Ecosphere (16)

Steven N. Winter, Glen A. Sargeant, Margaret A. Wild, Erin Clancey, Kathryn P. Huyvaert, Kyle Garrison, Pilar Fernandez

Environments can shape the occurrence and extent of disease outbreaks in wildlife. We studied the effects of environmental features on the occurrence of treponeme-associated hoof disease (TAHD), an emerging infectious disease of free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis), in southwestern Washington, USA. During the 2016–2022 harvest seasons, successful elk hunters returned mandatory harvest reports and noted the presence or absence of hoof abnormalities indicative of TAHD. We used generalized linear models and an information-theoretic approach to model selection to relate (1) the spatial distribution of hoof abnormalities to features of landscapes (land cover, topography, and soil characteristics) and (2) the temporal distribution of hoof abnormalities to precipitation during the year preceding the harvest season. The probability of hoof disease increased with soil clay content and proportion of agricultural land (88% of model weight). We found no conclusive evidence for an effect of precipitation on the occurrence of TAHD, but this could relate to relatively high annual precipitation (>140 cm) in the study area. Nevertheless, disease cases may have been negatively associated with precipitation during February–June (55% of model weight). Soils and land management practices may increase the risk of hoof disease by promoting the survival of pathogens that cause TAHD, the susceptibility of elk to infection, or the intensity of pathogen transmission among elk when congregated. Focusing on areas where the risk of disease is greatest may facilitate the detection of TAHD during surveillance. Likewise, removing infected elk and dispersing uninfected elk from areas with the greatest risk of disease may enhance the effectiveness of efforts to reduce transmission. Basing this work on the knowledge that disease risk is modified by factors of hosts, pathogens, and environments, this study serves as an application of the epidemiological triad framework to better understand the ecology and epidemiology of an emerging infectious disease in wildlife.

Released December 04, 2025 10:10 EST

2025, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (380)

Jeremy S. Brooks, Rebecca Koomen, Peter Søgaard-Jørgensen, Richard Eugene Waggaman Berl, Wendy Chavez-Paez, Dustin Eirdosh, Moh Abdul Hakim, Susan Hanisch, Christine Lindell, James Liu, Minh Hiếu Nguyễn, Anne Pisor, Douglas Rogers, Rainer Romero-Canyas, Erik Thulin, Tim Waring

Addressing sustainability challenges requires an integrative approach that bridges scientific research with practical application. The field of cultural evolution (CE) offers a perspective that may guide transitions and cultural transformations for a sustainable future. However, there have been few efforts to apply this field to sustainability challenges. This study explores how CE can inform sustainability practices through mechanisms of social learning, processes of cultural adaptation and conditions that promote cooperative governance. Through a two-phase research design—comprising online discussions with professionals from six domains, and an international workshop—we examined the perceived benefits, challenges and opportunities for applying CE in real-world contexts. Our findings indicate that professionals recognize CE’s potential to enhance knowledge dissemination, foster adaptation to social–ecological changes, improve governance structures and generate cooperation. However, barriers such as complex terminology, unfamiliarity with CE, the lack of clear, context-specific evidence of added value and competition with existing frameworks hinder its application. To overcome these challenges, we propose simplifying CE concepts, demonstrating its unique contributions, and continuing to foster co-production with practitioners to refine its applicability. This study is an initial step in building an applied science of CE that can support sustainability transformations across diverse domains.

Released December 04, 2025 09:28 EST

2025, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (380)

Richard Eugene Waggaman Berl, Jonathan J. Fisk, Lily M. van Eeden, Jonathan Salerno, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Kirsten Leong, Jonathan W. Long, G. Scott Boomer, Christopher K. Williams, Ugo Arbieu, Lisa Lehnen, Adam Landon, Erle C. Ellis, Bas Verschuuren, Lincoln R. Larson, Michael C. Gavin

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Released December 04, 2025 09:11 EST

2025, AGU Advances (6)

Yifan Cheng, Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Andrew J. Newman, Keith Musselman, Cleo Woelfle-Hazard, Dylan Blaskey, Cassandra M. Brooks, Tvetene Carlson, Joshua C. Koch, Monica Morrison, Edda A. Mutter, Daniel Sarna-Wojcicki, Peyton Thomas, Jenessa Tlen, Ryan C. Toohey

Earth System Models (ESM) are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth's interconnected systems and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end-users, especially decision-makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision-making. While the ESM community increasingly values broad community engagement, end-users may not initially perceive models as useful for local planning. Co-designing models with end-users fosters two-way learning: users better understand models and their outputs, while modelers gain insights into fine-scale local processes like monitoring practices and management priorities. Higher-level co-design can lead to more customized, priority-driven, and useful modeling products. Despite these benefits, modelers often struggle to initiate meaningful partnerships with local communities. Therefore, this paper explores model co-design from the perspective of modelers. This study presents two case studies where modelers and social scientists collaborated with Indigenous communities' decision-makers to reflect their priorities in model design and application. In the Arctic Rivers Project, high-resolution climate and hydrology data sets for Alaska were developed with guidance from an Indigenous Advisory Council, using optimized, coupled land-atmosphere models. In the Mid-Klamath Project, we partnered with the Karuk Tribe's Department of Natural Resources to assess climate change and prescribed burning impacts on terrestrial hydrology in the Klamath River Basin. Drawing from these studies, we introduce a four-level framework: (a) Co-design Configuration; (b) Model Tuning; (c) Incorporate Contextual Knowledge; (d) Co-develop New Model Functions. We aim to help researchers consider and compare co-design across diverse modeling projects systematically and coherently.

Released December 04, 2025 08:33 EST

2025, Environmental Science & Technology (5) 7219-7230

Samuel Adam Miller, Travis S. Schmidt, Larry B. Barber, Michelle L. Hladik, Dana W. Kolpin, Megan E. Shoda, Sarah M. Stackpoole

Imidacloprid, a neonicotinoid insecticide, is used for agricultural and nonagricultural purposes and is toxic to nontarget organisms at low concentrations in aquatic ecosystems. A total of 12,547 water samples were collected from 2013 to 2022 from 77 rivers across the United States (U.S.) and were analyzed to evaluate detections and temporal trends in imidacloprid concentrations. Imidacloprid was detected in 44% of all samples, and the mean concentration, adjusted for nondetect samples, of 24.9 ng/L (median = 11.9 ng/L) was more than twice the chronic benchmark for freshwater invertebrates (10 ng/L). This potential hazard to aquatic life was persistent, with 44% of the sites having a median concentration exceeding the chronic benchmark. Half of the sites (n = 38) had increasing trends, including large river sites along the Mississippi River. The mean increase was 10.6 ng/L over the past decade, while only six sites indicated decreasing trends. The estimated total loading of imidacloprid delivered to the Gulf of America from 2013 to 2022 was 129,489 kg (142.7 U.S. ton). The extensive presence of imidacloprid in U.S. waterways, the high percentage of sites with trends of increasing concentrations, and the prevalence of concentrations exceeding chronic benchmarks suggest widespread persistent risks to ecosystem health.

Released December 04, 2025 07:52 EST

2025, Journal of Avian Biology (2025)

Emily L. Weiser, Richard Lanctot, Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Lee Tibbitts, José Abad-Gómez, Joaquin Aldabe, Juliana Bose de Almeida, José A. Alves, Guy Anderson, Phil F. Battley, Heinrich Belting, Joël Bêty, Kristin Bianchini, Mary Anne Bishop, Roeland A. Bom, Katharine Bowgen, Glen S. Brown, Stephen C. Brown, Leandro Bugoni, Niall Burton, David R. Bybee, Camilo Carneiro, Gabriel Castresana, Ying-Chi Chan, Chi-Yeung Choi, Katherine Christie, Nigel A. Clark, Jesse R. Conklin, Medardo Cruz-López, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Steve Dodd, David C. Douglas, Luke Eberhart-Hertel, Willow B. English, Harry Ewing, Fernando A. Faria, Samantha E. Franks, Richard A. Fuller, Robert E. Gill Jr., Marie-Andrée Giroux, Cheri L Gratto-Trevor, David Green, Rhys E. Green, Ros Green, Tómas Gunnarsson, Jorge S. Gutiérrez, Autumn-Lynn Harrison, C. Alex Hartman, Chris J. Hassell, Sarah Hoepfner, Jos C. E. W. Hooijmeijer, James Johnson, Oscar W. Johnson, Bart Kempenaers, Marcel Klaassen, Eva Kok, Johannes Krietsch, Clemens Küpper, Andy Kwarteng, Eunbi Kwon, Jean-Francois Lamarre, Christopher Latty, Nicolas Lecomte, A.H. Loonstra, Zhijun Ma, Lucas Mander, Christopher Marlow, Peter P. Marra, Jose A. Masero, Laura Anne McDuffie, Rebecca L McGuire, Johannes Melter, David S. Melville, Verónica Méndez, Tyler Michels, Christy Morrissey, Tong Mu, David Newstead, Gary W. Page, Allison K. Pierce, Theunis Piersma, Márcio Repenning, Brian H. Robinson, Afonso Rocha, Danny I. Rogers, Amy L. Scarpignato, Shiloh Schulte, Emily Scragg, Nathan R. Senner, Paul Smith, Audrey R. Taylor, Rachel C. Taylor, Böðvar Þórisson, Mihai Valcu, Mo A. Verhoeven, Lena Ware, Nils Warnock, Michael Weber, Lucy J. Wright, Michael B. Wunder

Animal-borne trackers are commonly used to study bird movements, including in long-distance migrants such as shorebirds. Selecting a tracker and attachment method can be daunting, and methodological advancements often have been made by trial and error and conveyed by word of mouth. We synthesized tracking outcomes across 2745 dorsally mounted trackers on 37 shorebird species around the world. We evaluated how attachment method, power source, data retrieval method, relative tracker mass, and biological traits affected success, where success was defined as whether or not each tag deployment reached its expected tracking duration (i.e. all aspects succeeded for the intended duration of the study: attachment, tracking, data acquisition, and bird survival). We conducted separate analyses for tag deployments with remote data retrieval (‘remote-upload tag deployments') and those that archived data and had to be recovered (‘archival tag deployments'). Among remote-upload tag deployments, those that were a lighter mass relative to the bird, were beyond their first year of production, transmitted data via satellite, or were attached with a leg-loop harness were most often successful at reaching their expected tracking duration. Archival tag deployments were most successful when applied at breeding areas, or when applied to males in any season. Remote-upload tag deployments with solar power, satellite data retrieval, or leg-loop harnesses continued tracking for longer than those with battery power, other types of data retrieval, or glue attachments. However, the majority of tag deployments failed to reach their expected tracking duration (71% of remote-upload, 83% of archival), which could have been due to tracker failure, attachment failure, or bird mortality. Our findings highlight that many tag deployments may fail to meet the goals of a study if tracking duration is crucial. Using our results, we provide guidelines for selecting a tracker and attachment to improve success at meeting study goals.

Released December 04, 2025 07:44 EST

2025, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (675)

O. Beyssac, E. Clave, O. Forni, A. Udry, A.C. Pascuzzo, E. Dehouck, P.S.A. Beck, L. Mandon, C. Quantin-Nataf, N. Mangold, G. Lopez-Reyes, C. Royer, O. Gasnault, Travis S.J. Gabriel, L.C. Kah, S. Schroder, J.R. Johnson, T. Bertrand, B. Chide, T. Fouchet, J.I. Simon, F. Montmessin, A. Fau, S. Maurice, R.C. Wiens, A. Cousin

Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet, we do not have any direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock to confirm this assumption. NASA’s Perseverance rover found olivine-rich boulder-sized float rocks on the upper Jezero fan (Mars). These boulders have an ultramafic composition and their mineralogy is dominantly composed of Fo_73±3 olivine with high-Mg orthopyroxene, Cr-rich Ti-Fe oxides and minor plagioclase and high-Ca pyroxene. Microtextural and petrological analysis reveals that these minerals crystallized at equilibrium. In addition, these boulders are different from all the bedrocks analyzed by Perseverance along its traverse which are crustal igneous rocks and sediments. Comparing our data to Martian meteorites and available Mars bulk silicate models (BSM), we discuss that these boulders could represent primitive melts and/or lower crustal material, and we specifically hypothesize that they could be mantle peridotites. We propose that these putative mantle rocks could have been excavated by the succession of impacts from the shallow mantle or lower crust in the Isidis region where Jezero crater is located. These olivine-rich boulders could thereby constitute the first direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock.

Released December 03, 2025 15:00 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5087

Dominick J. Antolino, Gerard J. Gonthier, Georgina M. Sanchez

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and Wake County Environmental Services began a collaborative study to evaluate groundwater resources and long-term groundwater availability in the county’s fractured-rock groundwater system. Wake County, in central North Carolina, is experiencing rapid population growth, associated land development, and changing water use. Hydrogeologic data including groundwater levels, aquifer testing, borehole fracture flow measurements, water-quality samples, and groundwater age-dating tracers were collected, along with findings from previous investigations, to help inform a conceptual model of the flow system used to develop a modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW) for simulating historical and future groundwater conditions from 2000 to 2070.

Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity ranges were estimated from 17 slug tests and 21 borehole-flow measurements. Groundwater-quality analytical results from 19 sampling sites indicate that oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions varied within the regolith and bedrock and that minimal evaporation occurred before recharge entered the groundwater system. Age dating revealed mixtures of older and younger water, ranging from the 1940s to the 1990s—indicating variable flow pathways of recharge within permeable bedrock fracture zones.

To simplify the complex fractured-rock groundwater system, two layers representing the regolith and the fractured bedrock were used in the MODFLOW model. Model calibration included parameter estimation and provided a reasonable fit to observed groundwater levels and estimated stream base flows. The model forecast scenarios incorporated future climate-model data for two emissions scenarios with land cover change projections to simulate potential impacts to future groundwater levels, recharge, and base flows. Recharge and base flow projections were largely within historical ranges, with no apparent long-term trends, but did indicate a slight downward shift in median values—likely, in part, because of differences in spatial resolution of input climate datasets. Seasonal patterns were consistent with historical data, with projections of possible increases in future winter recharge. Model limitations are discussed, and additional monitoring and model refinement needs are highlighted to support decision making for local groundwater management.

Released December 03, 2025 11:50 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3048

Jenny H. Lagesse, Christopher J. Schenk, Jane S. Hearon, Sarah E. Gelman, Thomas M. Finn, Benjamin G. Johnson, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional and continuous resources of 4.7 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Mesaverde Group and Lance Formation in the Southwestern Wyoming Province, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

Released December 03, 2025 10:31 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Jared E. Krebs, Robert J. Sheffer, Daniel J. Dembkowski, Ryan Eastman, Steven R. Holger, Joshua K. Raabe, Daniel A. Isermann

Released December 03, 2025 09:39 EST

2025, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (50)

J Arcuri, Irina Overeem, Marisa Repasch, R. S. Anderson, S. P. Anderson, Joshua C. Koch, Frank Urban

Bank erosion in Arctic rivers helps shape channel geometry, mobilizes carbon from permafrost and influences sediment delivery to the Arctic Ocean. On Alaska's Arctic coastal plain, rivers begin flowing during snowmelt in late spring while extensive river ice persists in channels, such that hydraulics are altered and water is kept cool. The effects of river ice on permafrost bank erosion are poorly understood, primarily due to a dearth of field observations and a lack of river ice in existing models.

To address this knowledge gap, we developed a numerical model to simulate the melt of substrate interstitial ice and bank collapse along individual permafrost river banks. We parameterize the model with field observations from riverbanks in three different channels on the Canning River delta, which are disparately impacted by river ice during snowmelt. We explore the bank erosion produced without river ice in the model and with modern river ice model scenarios that we drive with different stages and water temperature boundary conditions. We also compare predicted erosion rates to observations from satellite imagery to validate this approach.

In the model, banks are idealized as vertical profiles that rise 1–2 m above the river bed and are comprised of silt- to sand-sized sediment with dense roots in the active layer. Underneath, we generalize bank ice content underneath the active layer to represent ice-rich permafrost on the river corridor boundaries. The model predicts that these ice-rich river banks can erode by 2–6 m/yr. Scenarios without ice underpredict erosion in the distributary channels. Scenarios with varying river ice for different deltaic channels produce erosion rates similar to observations.

Our results suggest that the prolonged melt of thick river ice in a delta nonlinearly impacts permafrost bank erosion by blocking river discharge to certain branches, heightening stage across the distributary network and locally limiting river water warming. Given expected changes in air temperature and hydrology, future estimates of Arctic river bank erosion could be improved by considering river ice.

Released December 02, 2025 10:03 EST

2025, Preprint

Salme Ellen Cook, Liv M. Herdman

Coastal flooding and the associated damages due to storms are increasing with sea level rise around the world, with regional variability in the severity of impacts., Researchers and resource managers need to better understand and predict the future shifts in coastal flooding due to these processes to plan for resilient and sustainable communities. Here we present an analysis of long-term historical records of water levels, tides, and modeled present-day wave climatologies, to characterize the present-day inundation extent in Long Island Sound and Long Island, NY. To understand the potential future changes in inundation extent, we provide a similar analysis of future climate projections of non-tidal residuals (storm surge) for the year 2050 and compare these projections with our present-day results. We examine both the magnitude of relatively frequent events with a 0.99 annual exceedance probability to more extreme events with a 0.01 annual exceedance probability (or the 1 in 100-year event). This range of events is relevant for local managers to understand the spatial variability in coastal inundation, in addition to planning for larger more catastrophic events.

Released December 02, 2025 09:59 EST

2025, Geoscientific Model Development (18) 9319-9348

Ian Robert Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina Passeri, Sara Zeigler

Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time steps. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA. Simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework's utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Released December 02, 2025 09:35 EST

2026, Environmental Management (76)

Stephanie Castellano, Mysha Clarke, Laura D’Acunto, Stephanie Romanach, Stephanie Cadaval

Although coastal ecosystems are impacted by climate change and sea-level rise, many ecological and hydrological models do not yet incorporate sea-level rise projections in their modeling outputs. Therefore, this research examined the various challenges that may prevent sea-level rise from being effectively incorporated in modeling and decision-support tools. We conducted semi-structured interviews with twenty-six professionals involved in Florida’s Everglades restoration. We applied the Diffusions of Innovations Theory to better understand factors that can impact practitioners’ adoption of newly designed decision-support tools that examine sea-level rise in the freshwater Everglades. The Diffusions of Innovations Theory provided insights into practitioners’ perceptions of these tools. We found that these practitioners have a strong interest in using dynamic decision-support tools to plan for sea-level rise impacts on Everglades restoration, particularly when they receive information at appropriate geographic and temporal scales and are given hands-on tools and training. However, challenges that prevent developing these tools include outdated data, limited organizational capacity and funding, limited use of long-term indicators, uncertainty about climate change impacts on local ecosystems, and lack of integration between hydrological and ecological models. Our research also highlights that greater availability of different types of tools can help to meet the needs of the scientific and non-scientific audiences involved in Everglades restoration.

Released December 02, 2025 08:49 EST

2025, Fisheries

James M. Long, Richard A. Snow

Daily ring counts in young-of-the-year fishes are important for estimating important vital rates, such as growth, mortality, and timing of hatch. To accurately estimate some of these rates, the timing of the first daily ring must be estimated accurately. Variation in the timing of the first daily ring can be attributed to many factors, including biology of the species and experience of laboratory personnel. The amount of variation and the degree of differences, however, have not been quantified, hindering the utility of daily ring information to provide accurate estimates of spawning and hatching times. We conducted a review of studies for freshwater fishes in the continental United States to quantify variation in daily ring validation studies as it relates to timing of the first ring. We found 40 studies representing 12 orders, 15 families, and 35 species. Most studies investigated rings in the sagittae, although the lapilli and asterisci were also used for a few species. Variation in the timing of the first ring formation was evident, but not consistent among otolith types or groups of fishes. The first daily ring in sagittae varied from 31 d before hatch to 150 d after hatch. First daily ring formation in lapilli was consistent within families but formed before hatch in some families of fish and after hatch in other families. The first daily ring in asterisci were near universally formed after hatch, with the exception of one species of sturgeon (family Acipenseridae). Only three of the nine species where replicate studies existed were found to exhibit consistent first ring formation timing. Such findings suggest that differences among laboratories and personnel may play a larger role than differences among species or populations when inconsistent first ring formation timing results occur. For most species, error surrounding differences in timing formation is about 1 week, except for Salmoniformes, where error was up to a 150-d difference. Incorporating species biology along with uncertainty in temporal estimates based on otolith chronology would aid interpretation of results in field situations.

Released December 02, 2025 08:46 EST

2025, Book chapter, Applied spatiotemporal data analytics and machine learning

E. D. Attanasi, Timothy Coburn, Philip A. Freeman

Marko Maucec, Jeffrey M. Yarus, Timothy C. Coburn, Michael Pyrcz, editor(s)

Over the last 30 years, a substantial literature has evolved on the use of machine learning (ML) to assess, predict, and improve the efficiency of coalbed methane (CBM) recovery. In the United States, the production of CBM declined as shale gas production matured, but CBM continues to be an important energy resource in other parts of the world. ML applications that have the potential to improve CBM reservoir management and production forecasts, and to increase exploration and operational efficiency, are still of significant interest. The integration of geostatistical techniques into the CBM ML applications has been largely absent but represents an opportunity for improvement. The literature demonstrates the widespread interest in, and applicability of, ML algorithms applied to CBM problems, and that they continue to result in improvements in predictive performance. However, (1) much of the research is more academic than operational, (2) many results are based on simulations, or small or proprietary datasets, (3) ML performance information can be inconsistent and sometimes entirely omitted, (4) most methodologies are unique to the specific CBM situation and likely not generalizable, (5) no standard data repositories are available to directly compare the performance of competing algorithms, and (6) the spatial component is often omitted. Finally, relatively new ML protocols involving causality analysis and reinforced learning, as well as hybrid workflows combining both supervised and unsupervised learning, are anticipated to dominate the future investigations. Integration of geostatistical and geospatial analysis with ML should enhance performance.

Released December 01, 2025 14:45 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1051

Kendra L. Russell, William J. Andrews, Amy R. McHugh

Executive Summary 

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States entered June 7, 1954 (New Jersey v. New York, 347 U.S. 995), established the position of Delaware River Master within the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, the Decree authorizes the diversion of water from the Delaware River Basin and requires that compensating releases from certain reservoirs owned by New York City be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. The Decree stipulates that the River Master provide reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually. This report is the 65th annual report of the River Master of the Delaware River. The report covers the 2018 River Master report year, from December 1, 2017, to November 30, 2018.

During the report year, precipitation in the upper Delaware River Basin was 60.39 inches or 136 percent of the long-term average. On December 1, 2017, combined useable storage in the New York City reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin was 193.230 billion gallons or 71.3 percent of the combined useable storage capacity of 270.837 billion gallons. The reservoirs had a usable capacity of 99.5 percent on May 31, 2018. Combined storage remained high (above 80 percent combined capacity) and did not decline below 80 percent of combined capacity through November 30, 2018. River Master operations during the year were conducted as stipulated by the Decree and the Flexible Flow Management Program.

Diversions from the Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey fully complied with the Decree. Reservoir releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the flow objective for the Delaware River at Montague, New Jersey, on 42 days during the report year. Interim Excess Release Quantity banks and conservation releases, designed to relieve thermal stress and protect the fishery and aquatic habitat in the tailwaters of the reservoirs, were also made during the report year.

Released December 01, 2025 11:06 EST

2025, Society and Natural Resources

Roger Faust, Lauren A. Bernstein, David C. Fulton, Kelly Applegate, Austin Ayres, Pam May, Austin Vig, Adam C. Landon, Sarah Ruffing, Madeline Struck, Colin Yoder, Marc D. Schwabenlander, Tiffany M. Wolf

Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a fatal and contagious neurological disease of cervid populations across North America. Collaborative efforts between government agencies, researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders are necessary to minimize CWD prevalence, spread, and impacts on animal and human health and well-being. However, critical information related to CWD epidemiology, management, and animal and human health risks was not effectively reaching Tribal Nations and their members. To understand these gaps and specific information needs and ensure meaningful participation in CWD management and control efforts, university researchers and Tribal members partnered to conduct semi-structured interviews that focused on deer hunting and the perceived impacts of CWD on Tribal communities. Interviews provided insights into information preferences, knowledge gaps, and perspectives on CWD, revealing a strong sense of responsibility toward deer and the environment. From this collaborative approach, we can create culturally tailored educational resources that address CWD concerns and align with Tribal values.

Released December 01, 2025 10:37 EST

2025, Nature Microbiology (10) 3059-3068

Julia Kelliher, Chloe Mirzayi, Sarah R. Bordenstein, Aaron Oliver, Christina A. Kellogg, Eneida L. Hatcher, Maureen Berg, Petr Baldrian, Mashael Aljumaah, Cassandra Maria Miller, Christopher Mungall, Vlastimil Novak, Alexis Palucki, Ethan Smith, Nazifa Tabassum, Gregory Bonito, J. Rodney Brister, Patrick S. Chain, Jose Pablo Dundore-Arias, Joanne B. Emerson, Vanessa Moreira Fernandes, Roberto Flores, Antonio Gonzalez, Zoe A. Hansen, Scott A. Jackson, Ahmed M. Moustafa, Trent R. Northen, Nonia Pariente, Jennifer Pett-Ridge, Sydne Record, Linta Reji, Anna-Louise Reysenbach, Virginia I. Rich, Lorna Richardson, Simon Roux, Lynn M. Schriml, Reed S. Shabman, Maria A. Sierra, Matthew B. Sullivan, Punithavathi Sundaramurthy, Katherine M. Thibault, Luke R. Thompson, Scott W. Tighe, Ethell Vereen, STREAMS Consortium, Emiley A. Eloe-Fadrosh

The interdisciplinary nature of microbiome research, coupled with the generation of complex multi-omics data, makes knowledge sharing challenging. The Strengthening the Organization and Reporting of Microbiome Studies (STORMS) guidelines provide a checklist for the reporting of study information, experimental design and analytical methods within a scientific manuscript on human microbiome research. Here, in this Consensus Statement, we present the standards for technical reporting in environmental and host-associated microbiome studies (STREAMS) guidelines. The guidelines expand on STORMS and include 67 items to support the reporting and review of environmental (for example, terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric and engineered), synthetic and non-human host-associated microbiome studies in a standardized and machine-actionable manner. Based on input from 248 researchers spanning 28 countries, we provide detailed guidance, including comparisons with STORMS, and case studies that demonstrate the usage of the STREAMS guidelines. STREAMS, like STORMS, will be a living community resource updated by the Consortium with consensus-building input of the broader community.

Released December 01, 2025 10:13 EST

2025, Frontiers in Earth Science (13)

Michelle R. Plampin, Steven T. Anderson, Stefan Finsterle, Ashton M. Wiens

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO₂ storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO₂ injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO₂ storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO₂ storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO₂ injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO₂ or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO₂-water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO₂ injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO₂ in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO₂ in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO₂ injectivities and enhancement of CO₂ injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO₂ injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO₂ into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO₂ injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO₂ into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO₂ storage resource.

Released December 01, 2025 09:37 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5097

Kirsten E. Faulkner, Bryant C. Jurgens

More than 2 million Californians rely on groundwater from domestic wells for drinking-water supply. This report summarizes a 2022 California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP) water-quality survey of 33 domestic and small-system drinking-water supply wells in the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin and the surrounding areas, where more than 20,000 residents are estimated to utilize privately owned domestic wells. The study area includes the Llagas subbasin in the north, the North San Benito subbasin in the south, and the surrounding uplands. The study was focused on groundwater resources used for domestic drinking-water supply, which are mostly drawn from shallower parts of aquifer systems rather than those of groundwater resources used for public drinking-water supply in the same area. This assessment characterized the quality of ambient groundwater in the aquifer before filtration or treatment, rather than the quality of drinking water delivered to the tap.

To provide context, the measured concentrations of constituents in groundwater were compared to Federal and California State regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A grid-based method was used to estimate the areal proportions of groundwater resources used for domestic drinking wells that have water-quality constituents present at high concentrations (above the benchmark), moderate concentrations (between one-half of the benchmark and the benchmark for inorganic constituents, or between one-tenth of the benchmark and the benchmark for organic constituents), and low concentrations (less than one-half or one-tenth the benchmark for inorganic and organic constituents, respectively). This method provides statistically representative results at the study-area scale and permits comparisons to other GAMA-PBP study areas. In the study area, inorganic constituents in groundwater were greater than regulatory benchmarks (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] or State of California maximum contaminant levels [MCLs]) for public drinking-water quality in 24 percent of domestic groundwater resources. The inorganic constituents present at concentrations greater than MCLs for drinking water were nitrate (as nitrogen), barium, chromium, and selenium. Total dissolved solids (TDS) or manganese were present at concentrations greater than the secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) that the State of California uses as aesthetic-based benchmarks in 48 percent of domestic groundwater resources. No volatile organic compounds or pesticide constituents were present at concentrations greater than regulatory benchmarks. Total coliform bacteria and enterococci were detected in 4 percent of domestic groundwater resources. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were detected in 19 percent of domestic groundwater resources, and 10 percent had concentrations greater than recently enacted (April 2024) EPA MCLs.

Physical and chemical factors from natural and anthropogenic sources that could affect the groundwater quality were evaluated using results from statistical testing of associations between constituent concentrations and potential explanatory variables. In this study, relevant physical factors include well construction characteristics, groundwater age, site proximity to groundwater recharge or discharge zones, and potential sources of contamination. Relevant chemical factors include the initial chemistry of the recharge water, the mineralogy of the aquifer sediments, and the subsequent shifts in chemistry as biologic and geologic reactions alter groundwater in the subsurface.

Nitrate concentrations were correlated to agricultural land use, distance from the boundary of the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin, and the proportion of modern (post-1950s) water captured by the well. Denitrification under anoxic redox conditions can mitigate some nitrate derived from fertilizer application. Total dissolved solids primarily were derived from water-rock interactions with soils and aquifer materials in the study area, but there were high concentrations where agricultural practices contributed additional TDS. Mineralogy of aquifer sediments and rocks also affect barium, selenium, boron, and chromium concentrations in the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin. PFAS were positively correlated with urban land use and the proportion of modern water captured by the well.

Released December 01, 2025 09:31 EST

2025, American Mineralogist (110) 1898-1918

Celestine N. Mercer, Julie Roberge, Regina Marie Khoury, Albert H. Hofstra

World-class Carlin-type Au deposits hosted in sedimentary rock were formed when profuse Eocene silicic magmatism swept across northern Nevada in response to arc migration. Carlin-type Au deposits formed along with porphyry/skarn Cu-Mo-W-Au deposits, epithermal Ag-Au deposits, and distal disseminated Ag-Au deposits. But unlike these other Au-bearing deposits that have clear associations with igneous intrusions, Carlin-type ore deposits appear to have formed distant from concealed plutons, and their origin remains controversial. Despite decades of abundant geophysical, geochronological, and geochemical studies suggesting the involvement of magmas, concrete evidence for magmatic involvement is still lacking. Consequently, the involvement of contemporaneous igneous systems remains inferred based on age, proximity, and variable isotopic, geochemical, and geophysical clues. A recent synthesis of deposit models postulates that Carlin-type Au deposits are intrusion-related, but that the causative magmas reside deeper (∼6–12 km) than in typical porphyry and peripheral systems (∼3–5 km), meaning that Carlin-type deposits are perhaps more distal expressions of igneous intrusions. We investigate a collection of “suspect” magmatic systems over a ∼7 m.y. timespan (∼41–34 Ma) that are contemporaneous with and near known Carlin-type ore deposits. We report results of a multifaceted array of in situ geochemical analyses (FTIR, EMP, SHRIMP-RG, LA-ICP-MS) of quartz-hosted melt inclusions, biotite, and quartz to better characterize the pre-eruptive characteristics of these magmas. We also report results of thermobarometry and thermodynamic phase equilibria modeling to help place constraints on magmatic reservoir depths and processes. Rather than a single “flavor” of silicic magma, we observe a surprisingly broad compositional spectrum of rhyolites, with one end of the spectrum exhibiting more arc-like (I-type) characteristics and the other end displaying more post-subduction, thick-crust extensional (A-type) characteristics. This broad compositional spectrum suggests a more complex picture of silicic crustal magmatism operating over a narrow span of time during slab rollback. Despite this spectrum, magmatic systems in this study are consistently ferroan and generally peraluminous, which we interpret as an expression of the relatively elevated geotherm at the time and incorporation of variable amounts of highly peraluminous metasedimentary crustal components. The silicic magma spectrum encompasses a range of mineralization associations, including subduction-related Cu-Mo-W-Au-Ag and post-subduction, thick-crust extensional rare-metal Mo-Sn-W-F-Be-Ag-Au, consistent with the prolific and diverse array of ore deposits that formed during this time. Carlin-type Au deposition appears to be associated with nearly the entire magmatic spectrum. This apparent indifference to silicic magma “flavor” would seem to imply that if magmas are involved in Carlin-type Au deposit genesis, they perhaps do not need to be compositionally specialized and/or possibly are only relevant as heat sources driving circulation to remobilize and redistribute metals.

Released December 01, 2025 09:08 EST

2025, Journal of Mammalogy

Sally B. Martinez, Laura D’Acunto, Bradford J. Westrich, Scott M. Bergeson, Patrick A. Zollner

Observations of the Evening Bat (Nycticeius humeralis), a species historically distributed abundantly throughout the southeastern United States, are speculated to have increased in the Midwest. One hypothesis for this expansion in geographic distribution is that local extirpations of other bat species resulted in the expanded realized niche spaces for evening bats. In Indiana, such niche spaces may have been created by declines in populations of the Northern Long-eared Bat (Myotis septentrionalis), Indiana Bat (M. sodalis), Little Brown Bat (M. lucifugus), Big Brown Bat (Eptesicus fuscus), and the Tri-colored Bat (Perimyotis subflavus) due to white-nose syndrome (WNS). Our goal was to estimate the occupancy of Evening Bat in Indiana post-WNS establishment relative to the occupancy of other bat species before significant population declines caused by WNS. We expected that indices of occupancy of nearly extirpated species pre-WNS establishment would best predict current Evening Bat observations, and this would elucidate the niche space evening bats are now filling. We hypothesized that Evening Bat populations may be expanding their geographic range due to compensatory community dynamics, and that their realized niche space may be expanding in part due to losses of other bat species from WNS. We constructed multi-season Bayesian occupancy models using informative priors and integrative prior knowledge to test our predictions. We found that evening bats are occupying the niche space they were already occupying pre-WNS establishment. Furthermore, our results indicate that evening bats may be filling the niche space left behind by Myotis spp. (M. sodalis and M. lucifigus). These results can help us understand the dynamics of bat communities in a post-WNS establishment landscape and may also help to inform conservation of imperiled Myotis species.

Released December 01, 2025 08:41 EST

2025, Annals of Applied Statistics (19) 2957-2980

Jacob Oram, Katharine M. Banner, Christian Stratton, Andrew Hoegh, Kathryn Irvine

Classification of massive datasets by machine learning (ML) algorithms is promising for many scientific domains, especially wildlife monitoring programs that rely on passive acoustic surveys for detecting species. However, treating ML-predicted class labels (e.g., species identity) as truth biases inferences of focal parameters within common modeling frameworks. One solution is to model the misclassification process explicitly using human-validated true-class labels for a subset of observations. Validation by experts can present a substantial bottleneck in otherwise efficient workflows that use ML predictions. Bioacoustics practitioners seek guidance on both the quantity and process for selecting ML-labeled data to validate by an expert. We derive an alternative model formulation that jointly models human-validated and ML-predicted class labels with an observed-data likelihood (ODL) and use empirically informed simulations motivated by a real-data application to explore different probability designs for selecting class labels for validation. Simulation results suggest that with smaller validation sets the ODL formulation increases computational speed and reduces estimation error compared to a default MCMC data augmentation routine. Our methodology is transferable to applications that treat predictions from classification algorithms as the response variable of interest.

Released December 01, 2025 07:18 EST

2025, Data Report 1217

Brian G. Prochazka, Peter S. Coates, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O’Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Adrian P. Monroe, Steve E. Hanser, Lief A. Wiechman, Michael P. Chenaille

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefiting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated a 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide in Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively.

Released November 30, 2025 10:04 EST

2025, Wildlife Society Bulletin (49)

Duane R. Diefenbach, Frances E. Buderman, Mary Jo Casalena, Michael Dye, Robert Gates, Laura Christine Gigliotti, C. Robert Long, Katherine Martin, Michael Muthersbaugh, Michael L. Peters, James Sloan, Joshua Stiller, Mark Wiley

Wildlife agencies collect data on productivity (e.g., proportion of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) to monitor population status and trends. However, sampling protocols to collect productivity data rely on opportunistic observations reported by wildlife agency personnel and the public and have changed over time and differed among agencies. A protocol to standardize data collection was adopted by most state wildlife agencies in 2019, but long-term historical datasets exist that cannot be analyzed readily to make inferences about spatial and temporal patterns in wild turkey productivity. We developed statistical models to allow comparisons and model trends in productivity among and within states even though data collection protocols changed over time and differed among states. We found greater spatial variation in the proportion of hens with poults than the number of poults per brood, which may reflect how environmental factors influence wild turkey productivity. Our models can also provide inferences about productivity when data are limited or temporally discontinuous for some spatial units. Additionally, we found that temporal and spatial variation in data collection, even under the new protocol, can affect inferences about trends in productivity. The statistical models we developed address the uncontrolled nature of when and where data are collected and offer the ability to investigate long-term patterns of productivity in relation to factors such as changing climate or habitat conditions.

Released November 28, 2025 09:05 EST

2025, Scientific Data (12)

Brady W. Allred, Sarah E. McCord, Timothy J. Assal, Brandon T. Bestelmeyer, Chad S. Boyd, Alexander C. Brooks, Samantha M. Cady, Michael C. Duniway, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Shane A. Green, Georgia R. Harrison, Eric R. Jensen, Emily J. Kachergis, Anna C. Knight, Chloe M. Mattilio, Brian A. Mealor, David E. Naugle, Dylan O’Leary, Peter J. Olsoy, Erika S. Peirce, Jason R. Reinhardt, Robert K. Shriver, Joseph T. Smith, Jason D. Tack, Ashley M. Tanner, Evan P. Tanner, Dirac Twidwell, Nicholas P. Webb, Scott L. Morford

Rangelands are extensive ecosystems, providing important ecosystem services while undergoing continuous change. As a result, improved monitoring technologies can help better characterize vegetation change. Satellite remote sensing has proven effective in this regard, tracking vegetation dynamics at broad and fine scales. We leveraged the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellites to estimate fractional cover and canopy gap across rangelands of the western United States. We produced annual, 10 m spatial resolution estimates of fractional cover and canopy gap size class for years 2018 to 2024. Fractional cover estimates include that of common plant functional types (annual forb and grass, bareground, littler, perennial forb and grass, shrub, tree) and select genera (including invasive annual grass species, pinyon-juniper species, and sagebrush species); canopy gap size classes include gap sizes 25 to 50, 51 to 100, 101 to 200, and greater than 200 cm. We make these data available as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs, organized as 75 × 75 km tiles covering the 17 western states of the United States.

Released November 28, 2025 08:34 EST

2025, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (50)

Jong Cho, J. William Lund, Grady Ball, Jeb E. Brown, Allen C. Gellis, Laura N. Gurley, Scott Douglas Hamshaw, Jeffrey Stephen Kwang, Andrew Roy Laws, Gregory E. Noe, Gretchen P. Oelsner, Francis Parchaso, Cara L. Peterman-Phipps, Katherine Skalak, Nicholas Alan Sutfin

Sources, transport mechanisms and pathways of fine sediment in river systems are dependent on a multitude of climatic, geomorphic and anthropogenic factors, resulting in geomorphic equifinality, in which it is difficult to parse how different landscape processes affect sediment transport across different spatiotemporal scales. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide a conceptual model to consider how differing spatial distributions and hydrologic timing of sediment sources, both upland and in-channel, can result in equifinal sediment transport outcomes, and 2) utilize analytical methods with widely available environmental datasets to infer sediment processes from stream gaging data. Hysteretic patterns of observed storm events were classified based on their direction and timing of peak sediment concentration, relative to streamflow, using records from 35 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages in the period between 2007 and 2023 within two different physiographic regions: the Mid-Atlantic Delaware River Basin (DRB) and the Midwestern Illinois River Basin (IRB). The DRB contains mixed forest, urban, suburban and agricultural watersheds over diverse topography, and the IRB is primarily an intensively managed agricultural watershed on flat terrain. We use principal component analysis and linear discriminant analysis to infer regional hydrologic relations with turbidity dynamics, and to identify the primary hydrologic and land surface characteristics most effective at distinguishing between hysteretic classes in each region. These analyses reveal underlying regional relations in storm event hydrodynamics and landscape characteristics that contribute to varying patterns in sediment dynamics. Incorporating these sediment dynamic relations with spatial distributions and hydrologic timing of sediment sources could help to improve process understanding and predictive capability of fine sediment transport in watersheds.

Released November 27, 2025 09:18 EST

2025, Oecologia (208)

Anthony M. Pagano, Karyn D. Rode, Kerry L. Nicholson, William B. Leacock, Craig A. Stricker, Charles T. Robbins

Omnivores often face tradeoffs between selecting for spatially dispersed energy-dense vertebrate prey versus densely distributed herbivorous resources that have limited energetic value per unit intake. Arctic grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are large omnivores within a resource-limited ecosystem that are known to exhibit smaller body masses and occur at lower densities than grizzly bears in other regions of North America. We evaluated the energy balance of Arctic grizzly bears during a portion of the fall hyperphagic period in two ecologically differing regions on Alaska’s northern Arctic coast by monitoring mass change, food intake, activity, and energy expenditure of 12 individuals over 17–22 days. Bears in coastal areas were more carnivorous than bears in the foothills that were predominantly herbivorous and frugivorous. Carnivory was associated with greater movement, body fat, and energy expenditure and two of four carnivorous bears lost mass. Overall, the mean body fat of the bears in this study was 34% lower than other grizzly bear populations in North America in the fall. Furthermore, the bears in this study exhibited relatively small changes in body mass (x̄= 3%, range =−2 to 11%) that were 60% lower than other grizzly bear populations which typically gain substantial mass in the fall in preparation for denning. Our results, while representing a snapshot from a small number of bears during the fall hyperphagic period, are consistent with previous studies and indicate limited availability of energy-dense food resources during this time for grizzly bears in this region of the Arctic.

Released November 27, 2025 09:10 EST

2025, Antarctic Science

C. P. McKay, M. Marinova, Kaj E. Williams, M. Mellon

Dry permafrost underlain by ice-cemented permafrost has been reported in several locations in Antarctica. Initially thought to be relic ice, it is now understood that this subsurface ice is in equilibrium with the surface conditions, although it is not in equilibrium with the atmosphere. We use year-round data from University Valley in the Dry Valleys and Elephant Head in the Ellsworth Mountains to investigate the seasonal variations in water vapour flux that control the depth to the ice table under dry permafrost. Our analysis shows that the mean annual water vapour density of the soil surface exceeds the atmospheric value by a factor of up to ~2 due to summer snow. The attenuation and phase shift of the annual temperature cycle with depth result in colder temperatures at the ice table than at the surface of the soil in summer. We conclude that this temperature gradient, combined with the summer snow, provides the flux of water to the ice table necessary to maintain the ice. In University Valley, reducing the snow days by 40% moves the stability depth of the ice table from 42 to 66 cm. Increasing the snow days by 60% shifts the ice table to 17 cm. These variations can explain the observed gradient in the depth to the ice table in University Valley.

Released November 26, 2025 12:05 EST

2025, Open-File Report 2025-1054

Andrea C. O'Neill, Sharon F. Batiste, Daniel D. Buscombe, Joseph Burgess, Kara S. Doran, Ann E. Gibbs, Rachel E. Henderson, Julia L. Heslin, Catherine N. Janda, Mark A. Lundine, Joseph F. Terrano, Jonathan A. Warrick, Kathryn M. Weber

Satellite-derived shorelines (SDS) have the potential to help researchers answer critical coastal science questions and support work to predict coastal change by filling in the spatial and temporal gaps present in current field-based and remote-sensing data collection methods. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comparison analyses of traditionally sourced shorelines and SDS in diverse coastal landscapes to determine how SDS could be used in ongoing and future work across varied coastal environments and provided some initial findings that could be used for implementation. Using CoastSeg, a browser-based program for SDS detection and mapping, SDS for the period 1984–2023 for multiple locations across the United States were compared to shoreline positions from traditionally sourced shoreline data. In this report, the authors present these comparisons alongside lessons learned and challenges encountered when building SDS workflows in different coastal locations. Results show that individual SDS have larger uncertainty and yet produced similar linear trends to sparser, traditionally sourced shoreline data; because SDS methods provide orders of magnitude more data than traditional shoreline-detection methods, they can be used to evaluate shoreline behaviors. Refining average scalar slopes used in tidal corrections did not result in substantial decreases in uncertainty. Using lessons from this work to outline needs for regional implementation, initial setup time would be considerable, being on the order of weeks. However, once complete, shoreline detections and analyses are fast (on the order of minutes to hours) and achievable using a desktop computer.

Released November 26, 2025 11:01 EST

2025, Advances in Water Resources (206)

Gábor Fleit, Marian Muste, Sándor Baranya, Dongsu Kim, Amanda Whaling, Tate McAlpin, Hojun You

This paper introduces the use of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements as input for the Acoustic Mapping Velocimetry (AMV) method, a technique for characterizing the dynamics of riverine bedforms. The performance of this new approach, ADCP-AMV, is compared with input from a multibeam echosounder through a field study conducted on the Mississippi River (USA). A virtual ADCP tool has been created to support the ADCP-AMV measurements with optimal data density predictions. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time ADCP measurements have been used in conjunction with the AMV dune-tracking method. Subsequently, the paper discusses the coupling of ADCP-AMV measurements with ancillary data extracted from the ADCP. These ancillary data are processed using previously developed protocols to characterize hydrodynamics and the suspended sediment distribution in the water column. This paper emphasizes the capability of ADCPs to characterize open-channel river hydromorphodynamic parameters with high spatiotemporal resolution. Recommendations to accurately and efficiently acquire these multi-variable measurements and derived datasets are discussed.

Released November 26, 2025 10:21 EST

2025, Freshwater Biology (70)

Freya Elizabeth Rowland, Michael J. Vanni, Nicole M. Hayes, Clifford E. Kraft

1. Although nitrogen and phosphorus deficiency of algal blooms have been the focus of substantial attention, organic nutrients can limit algal growth in aquatic systems. Growing evidence indicates thiamine (vitamin B₁) can influence the community of primary producers in marine systems, but comparatively little is known about the effect of thiamine on freshwater algal productivity.
2. We conducted 106 nutrient deficiency experiments with water from 39 Ohio lakes of varying trophic status during the growing seasons (April–October) of 2008–2009. Specifically, we tested the response of phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll a, chl-a) relative to controls to added nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), thiamine (Th), or combinations of N + P and N + P + Th. Next, we compared the chl-a growth response of treatment/control to published thresholds based on frequentist approaches and compared the conclusions with Bayesian model results that focused on probability of a response.
3. Although N + P addition was consistently associated with the largest chl-a response, we found evidence of a thiamine influence on phytoplankton growth in some experiments. The Bayesian approach suggested thiamine may become more limiting as the growing season progresses. By late in the growing season, there was an 85% probability of a positive algal growth response to thiamine addition.
4. Understanding the role of thiamine or other overlooked nutrients is not likely to alter the prevailing understanding of nutrient deficiency in freshwater ecosystems. However, we present evidence that freshwater phytoplankton may experience thiamine deficiency and suggest limnologists consider thiamine when exploring resource deficiencies.

Released November 26, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, Economic Geology

Andreas Audétat, Jia Chang, Sean Patrick Gaynor

The depth level at which porphyry Cu–forming magmas fractionated and exsolved mineralizing fluids is actively debated. In the classic model, extensive magma fractionation occurs in large, upper crustal magma chambers, and concomitant fluid exsolution leads to forceful expulsion of residual magmas in the form of porphyry dikes, stocks, and breccia pipes, which subsequently serve as pathways for the mineralizing fluids. In contrast, some recent studies highlighting the role of deep crustal magma fractionation in the production of fertile magmas essentially deny the existence of upper crustal magma chambers at the time of mineralization. To address this, we conducted a detailed thermobarometric investigation of 13 intermediate to felsic, porphyritic intrusive rocks related to porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization at Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro, New Mexico, United States, representing two premineralization magmas (61–60 Ma), seven synmineralization magmas (60–58 Ma), and four late- to postmineralization magmas (58–57 Ma).

For each sample, the pressure of last magma crystallization before final magma ascent to the current exposure level was reconstructed based on Al-in-hornblende barometry of small hornblende inclusions trapped within quartz phenocrysts and through titanium-in-quartz (TitaniQ) thermobarometry of the host quartz phenocrysts themselves. Since quartz is one of the last crystallizing magmatic minerals, and no significant phenocryst growth could have occurred in small dikes and stocks after final magma emplacement, quartz phenocrysts and their contained hornblende inclusions record the depth of last magma crystallization before final magma ascent. When present, hornblende phenocrysts and hornblende inclusions within other major phenocrysts were also analyzed. Both quartz and hornblende barometers return consistent average pressures of 3.2 ± 0.4 kbar for the entire suite of pre- to postmineralization magmas, corresponding to depths of 11 to 14 km. The synmineralization magmas return even more consistent average pressures of 3.1 ± 0.2 kbar, corresponding to a depth of 12 ± 1 km.

The volume of the mineralizing porphyry dikes and stocks at the emplacement level is far too small to have provided all the fluids and metals required to form the observed ore deposits. Therefore, the majority of the ore-forming fluids must have originated from the magmas that crystallized at 12 ± 1 km depth. The ore deposits, conversely, formed at ~5-km paleodepth. This implies that most of the mineralizing fluids traveled an average vertical distance of ~7 km from their magmatic source to the eventual site of ore precipitation. The relatively unaltered nature and low veining degree of deeper parts of mineralized porphyry dikes and stocks suggest that the fluid transport through these intrusive bodies occurred mostly at near-solidus conditions by means of fluid percolation along grain boundaries.

In summary, our results suggest that (1) a large, upper crustal pluton exists ~7 km beneath the Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro deposits; (2) abundant phenocryst crystallization occurred at this depth level; and (3) this pluton was the main source for the exsolution of ore-forming fluids. However, the investigated rocks have elevated whole-rock Sr/Y ratios, indicating magma fractionation at deep crustal levels. As a result, our preferred model is a combination of the two end-member models introduced above, with most magma fractionation having occurred in the deep crust and with residual, intermediate to felsic melts having ascended and accumulated at 11 to 14 km paleodepth, where they continued to crystallize with comparatively little crystal-liquid separation, before some of these magmas ascended further to shallow levels and quenched to porphyries.

Released November 26, 2025 08:39 EST

2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management

J. Wesley Neal, Jacob A. Moreland, Corey Garland Dunn, Peter J. Allen

Objective 

Several species of New World cichlids have recently invaded reservoirs in Puerto Rico, potentially jeopardizing established recreationally important, albeit nonnative, sport fish populations. Interactions between invasive species and important sport fish must be understood so that they can be mitigated when feasible. This study compared monthly prey consumption between three invasive cichlids (Jaguar Guapote Parachromis managuensis and two species of Amphilophus) and two principal sport fishes (Largemouth Bass Micropterus nigricans and Butterfly Peacock Bass Cichla ocellaris) to understand potential for competitive interactions.

Methods

Stomach contents were evaluated quarterly using gastric lavage for sport fish and destructive sampling techniques for invasive species. Prey proportion by mass was calculated for each individual, and mean prey proportion by mass was calculated for each species by reservoir, month, and overall. Multivariate hypothesis testing using permutational multivariate analysis of variance and visualization of potential diet overlap were performed via analysis of variance and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), respectively.

Results

Fish were the most common prey type, and Threadfin Shad Dorosoma petenense was the most prevalent prey species. Although there were significant differences in diets of invasive cichlids and sport fishes (P < 0.01), there also was considerable overlap based on low percentages of variation in diets explained by species (3–19% < pseudo-R²) and NMDS visualizations. Diets varied little across reservoirs and months (≤4% pseudo-R²; high overlap in NMDS space).

Conclusion

These data indicate that the diet of Jaguar Guapote and Amphilophus spp. may overlap with that of sport fish populations in Puerto Rico. Jaguar Guapote relied on Threadfin Shad more than other species, with Amphilophus spp. relying more on detritus and noncrayfish invertebrates. Thus, if prey are limited, Jaguar Guapote may have a more direct effect via competition for prey. Finally, we report evidence of Largemouth Bass recruitment failure and local extirpations that support a hypothesis that invasive cichlids are having negative effects on at least Largemouth Bass, although the mechanism is unclear.

Released November 26, 2025 08:25 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5099

Brock J.W. Kamrath, Courtney N. Lauderback, Jennifer C. Murphy

This report describes a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and Missouri Department of Natural Resources that evaluated temporal changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the Lower Grand River hydrologic unit. The study focused on trends since 2010, when the basin was designated as a priority drainage basin of the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative (MRBI). At three local drainage basins within the Lower Grand hydrological unit (MRBI sites), stream nutrient trends were evaluated using flow-adjusted (FA) TN and TP concentrations for water years 2011 through 2023. FATN concentration trends were not statistically significant for any MRBI site. One site (site 2) showed a statistically significant increasing trend in FATP concentration, indicating a possible increase in phosphorus sources in parts of the basin. Overall, streamflow variability appeared to be the dominant factor affecting nutrient concentrations at MRBI sites. At five regional drainage basins, including the Grand River and nearby rivers with data from 1994 through 2023 (long-term sites), annual flow-normalized (FN) TN and TP concentrations were evaluated for trends before (water years 2000–10) and during (water years 2010–23) the MRBI. For water years 2010 through 2023, annual FNTN and FNTP concentrations decreased in the Grand River, as well as in the Nodaway and Chariton Rivers, which were not targeted by the MRBI. The Grand River (site 9) reversed from increasing to decreasing FNTP concentrations after 2010, with a 26-percent reduction. Annual FNTN and FNTP concentrations also decreased at the Missouri River sites. While nutrient reductions in the Grand River may reflect the effects of implemented conservation practices, similar trends in nearby, nontargeted rivers and the absence of strong decreasing trends at MRBI sites suggest that broader regional factors, instead of or in addition to MRBI efforts, may have contributed to nutrient reductions in the Grand River.

Released November 25, 2025 15:50 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5062

Kristina Gutchess, Natasha Scavotto, Amanda Dondero, Joshua Woda, Neil Terry, Kirk Smith, John Williams

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, evaluated the effects of different deicing salt application rates on surface water, groundwater, and highway runoff quality near State highways in northern New York. Three reaches of State highways were tested with different deicing treatments between October 2019 and November 2022: a salt-sand mixture (Treatment A), a salt mixture applied at a lower rate (Treatment B), and a control mixture consistent with typical deicing salt amounts and application rates. Data on pavement conditions and the quality of surface water, highway runoff, and groundwater were collected. Surface electromagnetic data were also collected. Surface-water and groundwater quality downgradient from the State highways were compared with water quality at upgradient locations. The percentage of snow or ice coverage was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the salt applications.

This report provides an overview of the transport of deicing salt. The Treatment B watershed had deicing mixture applied more frequently than other highway reaches, which caused it to have the highest annual total chloride application. Despite differences in chloride application, flow-weighted mean chloride concentrations in highway runoff were comparable across treatments. Chloride concentrations were elevated in surface water and groundwater downgradient from highways relative to chloride concentrations upgradient from highways. A chloride mass balance, calculated for one treatment watershed, indicated that groundwater affected by legacy deicing practices may be contributing additional chloride to surface water. Spatial patterns from electromagnetic surveys show a shallow saline plume alongside the highway in that area.

Differences in winter severity and pavement-surface conditions drove deicing salt applications in the treatment areas. This study found that several factors affect chloride loads in the watersheds, including variable winter conditions, adaptive snow and ice management, legacy management practices, and area-specific aquifer and groundwater conditions.

Released November 25, 2025 09:50 EST

2025, Molecular Ecology

Jesse B. Parker, Sean Hoban, Laura Thompson, Scott E. Schlarbaum

The central–marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts reduced genetic diversity and increased differentiation in range-edge populations due to ecological marginality and limited gene flow. Deviations from this pattern, however, can result from historical demographic processes, variation in reproductive strategies or interspecific hybridization. The genus Quercus, known for hybridization and long-distance pollination, offers an excellent model to examine the spatial patterns of genetic diversity, structure and introgression across species distributions. Here, we investigate these dynamics in Quercus bicolor Willd., a widespread eastern North American oak. Using RADseq, we genotyped 142 individuals from 12 sites at the fragmented trailing range edge and nine sites from the range core. To detect introgression, we incorporated reference data from six sympatric white oak species. We reveal extensive introgression, particularly from Q. lyrata Walt., in nearly all southern edge populations, but none in core populations despite sympatry with closely related congeners. Southern populations also showed increased genetic structure and differentiation, but not reduced diversity or increased inbreeding, even when only examining non-admixed individuals. Regression analyses reveal relationships between introgressed ancestry and heterozygosity, inbreeding and differentiation, indicating that introgression may buffer range-edge populations against genetic erosion by introducing novel alleles. Hindcast, current and forecast ecological niche models demonstrate temporally changing degrees of overlap between the geographic range of Q. lyrata and Q. bicolor and suggest higher hybridization potential in the future. These findings offer mixed support for the CMH while underscoring the evolutionary relevance of introgression in shaping genetic landscapes at range margins with significant implications for conservation.

Released November 25, 2025 09:30 EST

2025, Diversity and Distributions (31)

Jesse L De La Cruz, Sabrina M. Deeley, Elizabeth Ann Hunter, W. Mark Ford

Aim

White-nose syndrome has caused severe declines in eastern North American cave bats, leading to the federal listing of the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) as endangered in the United States and Canada. This has heightened the importance of long-term monitoring to inform species status assessments. We employed a combination of long-term repeated and single-season acoustic survey data to assess the regional presence, spatial distribution, occupancy, and detection probability of northern long-eared bats.

Location

New England, United States.

Methods

We analysed acoustic data from 2357 detector sites, aggregated by year, using Bayesian single-species occupancy models. We investigated the influence of habitat characteristics, climatic variables, and year (2015–2022) on occupancy and the effects of weather conditions and survey month (May to August) on detection probability. Spatial random effects were included to address residual spatial autocorrelation, with a 1-km resolution chosen based on significant positive autocorrelation observed in a non-spatial model.

Results

Occupancy was highest on steep, forested hillsides with minimal anthropogenic development, higher in warmer regions, particularly along coastlines and on offshore islands, and declined across survey years. Including a 1-km spatial random effect reduced residual autocorrelation and suggests northern long-eared bats utilise resources at small to medium landscape scales. Detection probability was highest earlier in the maternity season, but declined when monthly precipitation or temperature exceeded average conditions.

Conclusions

Conservation efforts that focus on steep, forested hillsides in warmer regions with low anthropogenic development could be beneficial. Our analysis supports the use of spatial random effects at a 1-km² scale, highlighting the importance of survey designs that capture ecological variation at species-specific resolutions. Additionally, early-season acoustic surveys conducted during favourable weather conditions may improve monitoring effectiveness. Acoustic sampling and spatial occupancy modelling offer powerful tools for monitoring remnant populations of northern long-eared bats and guiding conservation practices.

Released November 25, 2025 07:58 EST

2025, ES&T Water

Joe Heffron, Joel P. Stokdyk, Aaron D. Firnstahl, Rachel M. Cook, Claire E. Hruby, Mark A. Borchardt

When sampling for waterborne microbes, researchers may need to diverge from recommended sample volumes due to logistical constraints, novel targets, or challenging matrices, with little guidance about the potential impact on results. In field studies, we measured bacteria, viruses, and protozoa (15 quantitative polymerase chain reaction assays) in paired large- and small-volume samples to evaluate method performance and relevant factors. Concordance between methods was low. Large-volume ultrafiltration yielded more detections than small-volume sampling, especially for pathogens in groundwater. Greater microbial concentrations were associated with more frequent detections in small-volume samples and greater concordance between paired samples. Large-volume samples appeared to be more susceptible to diminished sensitivity from complex sample matrices. In laboratory studies, recovery of microbes was poorer for large- than small-volume methods, although large-volume methods more reliably detected low-concentration targets. Large-volume samples were less stable than small-volume samples during storage. Overall, large-volume sampling was superior for detecting pathogens but may underestimate concentrations; small-volume sampling was more prone to false negatives but was adequate when concentrations were relatively high, like we observed for microbial source tracking in surface waters.

Released November 24, 2025 13:01 EST

2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5088

Scott A. Olson

This report provides estimates of flood discharge at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont with drainage areas between 0.47 and 851 square miles. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 156 streamgages. Flood-frequency analyses were completed using data through the 2023 water year. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations are drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction used to estimate flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 37.1, 38.2, 41.6, 43.8, 46.0, 49.1, and 53.2 percent, respectively.

Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed using the Expected Moments Algorithm. Techniques used to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations and to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment are both described. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is an internet-based application that provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Released November 24, 2025 09:39 EST

2025, Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit Technical Report HCSU-119

Seth Judge, Christopher C Warren, Amanda K Navine, Richard J. Camp, Lisa H. Crampton, Hanna L Mounce, John Vetter, Lauren K. Smith, Patrick J. Hart, Mona Renee Bellinger, Katherine Maria McClure

The Birds, Not Mosquitoes Monitoring and Support Science Working Group detailed methods for monitoring the population response of Hawaiian forest birds during implementation of the Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) on the islands of Maui and Kauaʻi. The group prioritized methods for measuring the influence of mosquito suppression on populations within IIT treatment and control areas and identified focal species for IIT efficacy monitoring in birds. Three primary metrics were established to assess the impact of IIT on vulnerable species: population demography, density, and geographic range. Each metric can be evaluated using multiple methods. This report reviews those methods, with emphasis on approaches supported by pre-IIT baseline data and compatible with a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design for evaluating population responses over time. Focal avian species were selected based on population size estimates, fecundity, and disease susceptibility. We identified ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei), ʻiʻiwi (Drepanis coccinea), Maui ʻalauahio (Paroreomyza montana), Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens), Kauaʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), and ʻanianiau (Magumma parva) as focal species for monitoring population level response to disease suppression.

Populations of kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), ʻakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), akekeʻe (Loxops caeruleirostris), and the ʻiʻiwi population on Kauaʻi may be too small (e.g., <100 individuals) to effectively monitor, and it is unlikely that sufficient data can be collected from these birds to show IIT efficacy in a relatively short time frame (i.e., 5–10 years). Despite the logistical challenges to IIT implementation, there is potential to maintain disease-free status in individual populations of birds. Indeed, the continued existence of these critically endangered species in the wild within or near IIT treatment areas could be considered an accomplishment of IIT, given the current predictions for their extinction in the wild within 5–10 years. Demographic monitoring methods, including territory mapping, nest monitoring, mist-netting, and mark-recapture studies, provide direct evidence of survivorship and reproductive output.

When combined with disease surveillance, these approaches could provide the most robust evidence of increased survivorship and productivity resulting from avian malaria suppression via IIT. However, demographic studies require several years of monitoring to achieve statistically robust BACI comparisons of survivorship and are more difficult to implement relative to other approaches. Given that these field efforts are labor-intensive and heavily reliant on personnel availability and funding, demographic monitoring could be conducted when adequate resources permit.

On both Maui and Kauaʻi, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was identified as a priority method for monitoring the range, occupancy, and relative abundance of focal species. Autonomous recording units (ARUs) can record bird vocalizations in remote areas for several months.

Innovative machine learning techniques permit rapid and semi-autonomous identification of most endemic honeycreepers on each island, maximizing sampling efficiencies and minimizing data processing costs. We predict mosquito suppression could support expansion of focal species into areas where disease transmission is currently excluding these species and expect acoustic monitoring data of focal species to reflect these spatial patterns. Additionally, the relative occupancy and call densities can be monitored temporally and spatially to assess the efficacy of IIT for supporting positive growth in vulnerable bird species. It is not yet clear if PAM is more effective than other methods, such as distance sampling, for detecting trends in the densities of rare species. However, the increased detections resulting from the larger sample size per observation point using ARUs will likely improve accuracy in detecting changes in species’ ranges. Collection of during and after treatment data within the BACI design could help to provide critical information to track avian population response, recovery, and potential range expansion related to IIT efforts. Point-transect distance sampling (point-counts) was prioritized as a method for monitoring population densities of focal species. Extensive historical sampling across focal species’ ranges provides a robust baseline for detecting change. These counts provide updated population densities and can be used to assess the distribution of focal species within IIT treatment areas.

However, detecting subtle population changes with traditional distance sampling requires intensive spatial and temporal effort and may be less effective for rare species. To improve resolution, density surface modeling can integrate multiple data sources (e.g., point-counts, PAM, spot-mapping, and resightings) to estimate species-specific densities at finer spatial scales, including within and outside IIT treatment areas. This integrated modeling approach allows for detailed comparisons and may reveal early signs of recovery, including recolonization of formerly occupied sites. A coordinated monitoring strategy can allow managers to evaluate the success of mosquito suppression as a conservation intervention and support adaptive management in the face of emerging challenges.

Released November 24, 2025 08:27 EST

2025, Oikos

Brendan K Hobart, Daniel A. Grear, Megan Winzeler, Travis Mcdevitt-Galles, Timothy M Korpita, Erin L. Muths, Valerie J McKenzie

Temperature is a primary driver of heterogeneity in host–pathogen dynamics and understanding how patch-scale temperature affects landscape-scale patterns of pathogen infection is key to effective monitoring and management. In field studies, both temperature variability and mean temperature are often related to infection of ectothermic animals by fungal pathogens, and although these factors vary spatiotemporally, their contributions to infection outcomes are rarely decomposed into spatial and temporal components. We studied how patch-scale thermal conditions (mean and variability) affect infection of eastern newts Notophthalmus viridescens by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), with a special focus on disentangling spatial versus temporal contributions of thermal conditions to infection outcomes. We measured in situtemperature and Bd infection across 20 ponds in two years in southeastern Wisconsin, USA to 1) understand thermal mediation of infection and 2) quantify whether seasonal and/or among-site variation in thermal conditions drive heterogeneity in host–pathogen interactions. In our system, thermal mean and variability covaried tightly, necessitating the creation of a single index to capture both components. We found that 1) this index of thermal mean and variability was strongly and nonlinearly related to Bd infection and 2) differences among patches in thermal conditions drove this relationship, highlighting that variation in patch-level conditions can drive heterogenous host–pathogen outcomes across landscapes. Our research collectively reveals insights about the importance of local, patch-level conditions for mediating disease risk at broader scales.

Released November 24, 2025 07:58 EST

2025, Restoration Ecology

Emily N. Fromenthal, Camille L. Stagg, Jena A. Moon, Taylor Abshier, Omar Alawneh, Jack A. Cadigan, Daniel A. Gallegos, Brian D. Harris, Nia R. Hurst, Navid H. Jafari, Todd Merendino, Matthew R. Nelson, Michael J. Osland, Philip Pauling, Michael Rezsutek, Colt R. Sanspree, Rachel Katherine Villani

Introduction

Coastal marshes are highly valuable ecosystems facing threats from rising sea levels and intensifying storm events. To elevate marsh surfaces and prevent loss of ecosystem services, the beneficial use of dredged material (BUDM) is increasingly being implemented across the United States.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to aid decision-makers and restoration practitioners by identifying elevation thresholds that control the optimal function of Spartina patens-dominated marshes along the Texas Coast.

Methods

This study was conducted in the coastal marshes of the J.D. Murphree Wildlife Management Area (Texas). We collected elevation and vegetation cover data along ecological transition zones in marshes nourished with BUDM to identify elevation thresholds that define zones of optimal plant survivorship and growth.

Results

We identified lower (−0.05 m mean high water, MHW) and upper (0.26 m MHW) elevation thresholds that defined transitions to open water and unvegetated bare ground, respectively. Elevation targets (T) and elevation target zones, which defined areas with the greatest vegetation cover, were determined for S. patens (T: 0.11 m, target zone: −0.06 to 0.26 m MHW), S. alterniflora (T: 0.00 m, target zone: −0.12 to 0.10 m MHW), and Distichlis spicata (T: 0.17 m, target zone: 0.07–0.25 m MHW).

Conclusions

Our analyses provide species-specific elevation targets for coastal marsh restoration through BUDM, which can improve restoration outcomes for coastal wetlands.

Released November 23, 2025 08:59 EST

2025, Freshwater Biology (70)

Jeffrey R. Baldock, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Annika W. Walters

1. Landscapes are composed of habitat patches and conditions that vary across space and time. While habitat variability and complexity can support important ecological processes and ecosystem services, the dynamic nature of habitats can also constrain organismal growth and production as optimal conditions are fleeting. In riverine ecosystems, groundwater discharge to streams stabilises water temperature and flow regimes, thus mediating how habitat complexity is expressed. Yet, how stable habitats structure growth and production within the broader landscape matrix is not well understood.
2. In this study, we explored the effects of groundwater on spatiotemporal variation in growth and production for juvenile Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri) across the upper Snake River catchment, Wyoming, USA. We combined machine learning techniques and remotely sensed landscape data to estimate groundwater availability across the river network, which we linked to stream temperature regimes and conspecific density. We then used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of temperature, density and groundwater on spatiotemporal variation in fish growth and production in 52 focal reaches. Finally, we predicted body size trajectories and trends in total production continuously over both space and time to understand the effect of groundwater at the riverscape scale.
3. Groundwater discharged to streams where topography changes abruptly in valley-bottom areas underlain by coarse glacial deposits. Groundwater stabilised temperature regimes and was associated with high trout densities. Temperature and density, in turn, interacted to influence growth rates: growth increased strongly with temperature, but this effect was reduced when density was high. Accordingly, variation in groundwater availability among stream reaches diversified growth and production regimes. In reaches with low groundwater availability, growth and production declined over time from summer maxima. In contrast, in reaches with high groundwater availability, temporal trends in growth and production were hump-shaped—peaking in autumn—and mean production was greater. At the riverscape scale, temporal asynchrony in growth rates generated convergent spatial variation in growth capacity, but—when combined with density—led to the formation of distinct hotspots of production.
4. Our results demonstrate how groundwater, an important driver of aquatic ecosystem heterogeneity, structures trout growth and production across space and time. Importantly, rare, but stable habitats may disproportionately affect ecological processes and serve as key sources of population diversity at larger spatial scales.

Released November 23, 2025 08:22 EST

2025, Ecology and Evolution (15)

Gavin G. Cotterill, Douglas A. Keinath, Tabitha A. Graves

Occupancy models have become increasingly popular for species monitoring and assessment, in part, because detection/non-detection data are readily obtained using a variety of methods. Multispecies occupancy models (MSOMs) can yield more accurate parameter estimates than single-species models (SSOMs) with less data through their hierarchical structure, making MSOMs an attractive option when species are hard to detect or when data collection is constrained, leading to sparse datasets. Such constraints may arise from limited sampling resources, but also occur in rare species monitoring or where preliminary results are desired to inform adaptive management. Further, experimental habitat treatments often impose spatial constraints on sampling based on the scale of their implementation. Whether a MSOM outperforms SSOMs depends on the volume of data, characteristics of the ecological community, research goals of a study and how these factors align with modeling assumptions. We performed a simulation study of hypothetical pollinator communities under varying sampling intensities for scenarios in which experimental habitat treatments produced different community-level effects. We fit occupancy models to simulated datasets and assessed model performance. At lower sampling intensities (< 20 spatial replicates and < 4 temporal replicates), MSOM community-level treatment effect estimates were biased. Even at twice this sampling intensity, SSOMs yielded more accurate species-specific effect estimates in treatment effect scenarios with high variance. In some cases, MSOMs can pull species in the tails of distributions too far toward the community mean effect, which risks incorrect conclusions concerning whether treatments help or harm individual species. When quantifying species-specific effects is the main objective, particularly for rarely observed species, SSOMs are more robust to outliers across a range of community response scenarios. Researchers can use this information to inform study design, guide simulation studies and decide whether the higher precision of MSOMs outweighs risks of improperly estimated effects for some species.

Released November 22, 2025 08:43 EST

2025, International Journal of Photoenergy (2025)

K. Sydny Fujita, Ben Hoen, Dana Robson, Joesph Rand, Zachary H. Ancona, James Diffendorfer, Louisa Kramer, Christopher Garrity, Jianyu Gu, Jordan Macknick

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

Released November 22, 2025 08:02 EST

2025, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Ralph W. Tingley III, Darryl W. Hondorp, Benjamin A. Turschak, Steven A. Pothoven, Amanda Susanne Ackiss, Jory Jonas, William W. Fetzer, Benjamin Scott Leonhardt, Andrew Edgar Honsey, Jeff Elliott, Lindsie Ann Egedy, Cory Brant, Lynn Benes, Kendra Kozlauskos, Renee Renauer-Bova, Ann J. Ropp

Characterizing fish movements is required for understanding habitat use, energy flow, and trophic structure and can inform fisheries management. Drowned river mouth (DRM) lakes are productive inland habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin used by migratory fishes. Despite recognition of their ecological connections to the Great Lakes, the value of DRM lakes as seasonal habitats is not well understood for many fishes. One such species, cisco Coregonus artedi, has recently expanded in Lake Michigan from near extirpation to higher relative abundances in the northeastern portion of the lake. Cisco are recreationally harvested in some DRM lakes during winter, but little is known about cisco movement patterns and ecology. In winter 2022 and 2023, we collected cisco from three DRM lakes along the eastern shores of Lake Michigan (Lake Charlevoix, Portage Lake, Muskegon Lake) to characterize genetics, morphometrics, and diets. We also implanted telemetry tags in 20 cisco collected in Lake Charlevoix to examine movement patterns and determine DRM lake residency (i.e., seasonal vs. year-round). We found no consistent genetic or morphometric differentiation across DRM lakes, suggesting that recolonization began from a single stock. Fish were the only diet item found in cisco guts collected during winter months. Movement patterns from Lake Charlevoix indicated strong spawning site fidelity to Grand Traverse Bay as well as non-spawning site fidelity. However, given the presence of cisco in southern DRM lakes and some site-specific differences in morphometrics, managers could benefit from further research to determine whether spawning occurs in southern Lake Michigan.

Released November 21, 2025 11:55 EST

2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3052

Christopher J. Schenk, Marilyn E. Tennyson, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional resources of 67 million barrels of oil and 56 billion cubic feet of gas in the Santa Maria Basin Province of California.  

Released November 21, 2025 11:02 EST

2025, Preprint

Derek W. Ryter, Joseph A. Hevesi, Linda R. Woolfenden

The Strawberry Creek watershed, situated in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the impact of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this watershed. In this study we constructed the Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model (SCIHM) to increase this understanding. The SCIHM is an integrated surface runoff and groundwater model that uses the coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model (GSFLOW), which is based on the integration of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the modular groundwater flow model commonly called MODFLOW, version MODFLOW-2005 software to simulate surface runoff and infiltration and groundwater flow. The model has three layers, 263 rows, and 176 columns. The model area includes the Strawberry Creek and four adjacent watersheds. The PRMS model was calibrated using two streamflow gaging stations and the GSFLOW model was calibrated to reported spring diversion discharge and a sparse number of groundwater-level measurements. The SCIHM was run with and without diversions active and simulated streamflow was compared, finding that in the headwaters of Strawberry Creek about 35 percent of the diversion flow was captured from base flow.

Released November 21, 2025 09:23 EST

2025, Seismological Research Letters

Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall, Grace Alexandra Parker, Evan Tyler Hirakawa

he Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults in the San Francisco Bay region of California have a high probability of producing a large earthquake in the next decades. Although these faults creep, the creep is insufficient to keep up with their relatively rapid slip rates on their deepest sections, so they have been storing tectonic strain since their last large earthquakes, with the Hayward’s and Rodgers Creek’s more than 150 yr ago. We do not know what the next large Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek earthquakes will look like or how strongly they will shake the San Francisco Bay region. Harris et al. (2021) used the 3D dynamic (spontaneous) rupture method to simulate large earthquakes on these creeping faults. In this article, we examine the resulting simulated long‐period (T > 1 s) ground shaking from 0 to 50 km distance, for earthquakes nucleating on the Hayward fault and earthquakes nucleating on the Rodgers Creek fault. We compare these simulated long‐period ground motions with the Boore et al. (2014) well‐established empirically based ground‐motion model suitable for the slowest material velocity in our 3D velocity structure. We find that the simulated long‐period ground motions from the creeping‐fault earthquake scenarios produce a reasonable agreement with the empirical expectations if frictional cohesion is included only where it is appropriate.