Uncertainty in climate change and drought
Edited by: Shane Richard M.
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Abstract
A series of projections of climate change were applied to a watershed model of the Delaware River basin to identify sources of uncertainty in predicting effects of climate change on drought in the basin as defined by New York City reservoir contents. The watershed model is a calibrated, monthly time-step water-balance model that incorporates the operation of reservoirs and diversion canals, and accounts for all inflows to and outflows from the basin at several key nodes. The model assesses the effects of projected climate change on reservoir contents by calculating the frequency with which the basin enters drought conditions under a range of climate-change conditions. Two primary sources of uncertainty that affect predictions of drought frequency in the Delaware River basin were considered: (1) uncertainty in the amount of change in mean air temperature and precipitation, and (2) uncertainty in the effects of natural climate variability on future temperature and precipitation. Model results indicate that changes in drought frequency in the Delaware River basin are highly sensitive to changes in mean precipitation; therefore, the uncertainty associated with predictions of future precipitation has a large effect on the prediction of future drought frequency in the basin.
Suggested Citation
McCabe, G., Wolock, D.M., Tasker, G.D., Ayers, M.A., 1991, Uncertainty in climate change and drought, in Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering, Nashville, TN, USA, 29 July 1991 through 2 August 1991, p. 1-6.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Uncertainty in climate change and drought |
| ISBN | 0872628167 |
| Year Published | 1991 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Publ by ASCE |
| Publisher location | New York, NY, United States |
| Larger Work Title | Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering |
| First page | 1 |
| Last page | 6 |
| Conference Title | Proceedings of the 1991 National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering |
| Conference Location | Nashville, TN, USA |
| Conference Date | 29 July 1991 through 2 August 1991 |