Estimating debris-flow probability using fan stratigraphy, historic records, and drainage-basin morphology, Interstate 70 highway corridor, central Colorado, U.S.A
By: J. A. Coe, J. W. Godt, M. Parise, and A. Moscariello
Edited by: Rickenmann D.Chen C.L.
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Abstract
We have used stratigraphic and historic records of debris-flows to estimate mean recurrence intervals of past debris-flow events on 19 fans along the Interstate 70 highway corridor in the Front Range of Colorado. Estimated mean recurrence intervals were used in the Poisson probability model to estimate the probability of future debris-flow events on the fans. Mean recurrence intervals range from 7 to about 2900 years. Annual probabilities range from less than 0.1% to about 13%. A regression analysis of mean recurrence interval data and drainage-basin morphometry yields a regression model that may be suitable to estimate mean recurrence intervals on fans with no stratigraphic or historic records. Additional work is needed to verify this model. ?? 2003 Millpress.
Suggested Citation
Coe, J.A., Godt, J., Parise, M., Moscariello, A., 2003, Estimating debris-flow probability using fan stratigraphy, historic records, and drainage-basin morphology, Interstate 70 highway corridor, central Colorado, U.S.A, in International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment, Proceedings, v. 2, Davos, 10 September 2003 through 12 September 2003, p. 1085-1096.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Estimating debris-flow probability using fan stratigraphy, historic records, and drainage-basin morphology, Interstate 70 highway corridor, central Colorado, U.S.A |
| Volume | 2 |
| Year Published | 2003 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Title | International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment, Proceedings |
| First page | 1085 |
| Last page | 1096 |
| Conference Title | 3rd International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment |
| Conference Location | Davos |
| Conference Date | 10 September 2003 through 12 September 2003 |