Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault step-over, San Francisco Bay, California

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Abstract

A dilatational step-over between the right-lateral Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults lies beneath San Pablo Bay in the San Francisco Bay area. A key seismic hazard issue is whether an earthquake on one of the faults could rupture through the step-over, enhancing its maximum possible magnitude. If ruptures are terminated at the step-over, then another important issue is how strain transfers through the step. We developed a combined seismic reflection and refraction cross section across south San Pablo Bay and found that the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults converge to within 4 km of one another near the surface, about 2 km closer than previously thought. Interpretation of potential field data from San Pablo Bay indicated a low likelihood of strike-slip transfer faults connecting the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. Numerical simulations suggest that it is possible for a rupture to jump across a 4-km fault gap, although special stressing conditions are probably required (e.g., Harris and Day, 1993, 1999). Slip on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults is building an extensional pull-apart basin that could contain hazardous normal faults. We investigated strain in the pull-apart using a finite-element model and calculated a ∼0.02-MPa/yr differential stressing rate in the step-over on a least-principal-stress orientation nearly parallel to the strike-slip faults where they overlap. A 1- to 10-MPa stress-drop extensional earthquake is expected on normal faults oriented perpendicular to the strike-slip faults every 50-500 years. The last such earthquake might have been the 1898 M 6.0-6.5 shock in San Pablo Bay that apparently produced a small tsunami. Historical hydrographic surveys gathered before and after 1898 indicate abnormal subsidence of the bay floor within the step-over, possibly related to the earthquake. We used a hydrodynamic model to show that a dip-slip mechanism in north San Pablo Bay is the most likely 1898 rupture scenario to have caused the tsunami. While we find no strike-slip transfer fault between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults, a normal-fault link could enable through-going segmented rupture of both strike-slip faults and may pose an independent hazard of M ∼6 earthquakes like the 1898 event.

Suggested Citation

Parsons, T., Sliter, R., Geist, E., Jachens, R., Jaffe, B.E., Foxgrover, A., Hart, P., and McCarthy, J., 2003, Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault step-over, San Francisco Bay, California: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 93, no. 5, p. 2187-2200, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120020228.

ISSN: 1943-3573 (online)

ISSN: 0037-1106 (print)

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault step-over, San Francisco Bay, California
Series title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI 10.1785/0120020228
Volume 93
Issue 5
Year Published 2003
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) San Francisco Bay-Delta, Pacific Regional Director's Office
Description 14 p.
First page 2187
Last page 2200
Country United States
State California
City San Francisco
Other Geospatial San Francisco Bay
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
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