Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
By: T. Cao, M.D. Petersen, and A.D. Frankel
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Abstract
In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1-0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2-0.3). High COV values (0.4-0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California.
Suggested Citation
Cao, T., Petersen, M., and Frankel, A., 2005, Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 95, no. 6, p. 2040-2057, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050017.
ISSN: 1943-3573 (online)
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps |
| Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| DOI | 10.1785/0120050017 |
| Volume | 95 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Year Published | 2005 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| First page | 2040 |
| Last page | 2057 |