Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

Climatic Change
By: , and 



Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario
Series title Climatic Change
DOI 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013702.22656.e8
Volume 62
Issue 1-3
Year Published 2004
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) California Water Science Center, San Francisco Bay-Delta, Toxic Substances Hydrology Program, Pacific Regional Director's Office
Description 16 p.
First page 217
Last page 232
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details