Cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) of surficial geologic units were used to define the liquefaction hazard in a 140-km2 area along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. LPI values were computed for 202 cone penetration tests conducted in surficial geologic units in the study area. The hazard of each unit was defined by the cumulative frequency at LPI = 5. The distributions predict that 73% and 3%, respectively, of the area underlain by artificial fill and Holocene alluvial fan deposits will show surface manifestations of liquefaction during a M7.1 earthquake on the nearby Hayward Fault. The predictions are consistent with recent earthquakes in other areas where similar types of deposits experienced near-field ground motion. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.