Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO 2 levels?

Hydrological Sciences Journal
By:  and 



Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85-127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO 2 levels?
Series title Hydrological Sciences Journal
DOI 10.1080/02626667.2011.621895
Volume 57
Issue 1
Year Published 2012
Language English
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques
First page 1
Last page 9
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