Probabilistic fault displacement hazards for the southern san andreas fault using scenarios and empirical slips
Earthquake Spectra
By: R. Chen and M.D. Petersen
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Abstract
We apply a probabilistic method to develop fault displacement hazard maps and profiles for the southern San Andreas Fault. Two slip models are applied: (1) scenario slip, defined by the ShakeOut rupture model, and (2) empirical slip, calculated using regression equations relating global slip to earthquake magnitude and distance along the fault. The hazard is assessed using a range of magnitudes defined by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast and the ShakeOut. For hazard mapping we develop a methodology to partition displacement among multiple fault branches basedon geological observations. Estimated displacement hazard extends a few kilometers wide in areas of multiple mapped fault branches and poor mapping accuracy. Scenario and empirical displacement hazard differs by a factor of two or three, particularly along the southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault. We recommend the empirical slip model with site-specific geological data to constrain uncertainties for engineering applications. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Suggested Citation
Chen, R., Petersen, M., 2011, Probabilistic fault displacement hazards for the southern san andreas fault using scenarios and empirical slips: Earthquake Spectra, v. 27, no. 2, p. 293-313, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3574226.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Probabilistic fault displacement hazards for the southern san andreas fault using scenarios and empirical slips |
| Series title | Earthquake Spectra |
| DOI | 10.1193/1.3574226 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication Date | May 01, 2011 |
| Year Published | 2011 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Earthquake Spectra |
| First page | 293 |
| Last page | 313 |