The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

K. Porter; L. Jones; D. Cox; J. Goltz; K. Hudnut; D. Mileti; S. Perry; D. Ponti; M. Reichle; A.Z. Rose; C.R. Scawthorn; H.A. Seligson; K.I. Shoaf; J. Treiman; A. Wein

doi:10.1193/1.3563624

The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Earthquake Spectra

By: K. Porter, L. Jones, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, M. Reichle, A.Z. Rose, C.R. Scawthorn, H.A. Seligson, K.I. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein

https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3563624

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Abstract

In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a M_w7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km². A custom HAZUS^®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes ^$87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total ^$191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage (^$46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages (^$24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
Series title	Earthquake Spectra
DOI	10.1193/1.3563624
Volume	27
Issue	2
Year Published	2011
Language	English
Publisher	Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Description	23 p.
First page	239
Last page	261
Country	United States
State	Calfornia
Other Geospatial	San Andreas Fault
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page