Seismic hazard and risk assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area

Pure and Applied Geophysics
By: , and 



Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity–frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Seismic hazard and risk assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area
Series title Pure and Applied Geophysics
DOI 10.1007/s00024-010-0115-z
Volume 168
Issue 3-4
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher Springer
Description 8 p.
First page 731
Last page 738
Country China
Other Geospatial North China Plain
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