Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

A. Park Williams; Craig D. Allen; Alison K. Macalady; Daniel Griffin; Connie A. Woodhouse; David M. Meko; Thomas W. Swetnam; Sara A. Rauscher; Richard Seager; Henri D. Grissino-Mayer; Jeffrey S. Dean; Edward R. Cook; Chandana Gangodagamage; Michael Cai; Nathan G. McDowell

doi:10.1038/nclimate1693

Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

Nature Climate Change

By: A. Park Williams, Craig D. Allen, Alison K. Macalady, Daniel Griffin, Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko, Thomas W. Swetnam, Sara A. Rauscher, Richard Seager, Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, Jeffrey S. Dean, Edward R. Cook, Chandana Gangodagamage, Michael Cai, and Nathan G. McDowell

https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693

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Abstract

s the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000-2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

Suggested Citation

Williams, A.P., Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C.A., Meko, D.M., Swetnam, T.W., Rauscher, S.A., Seager, R., Grissino-Mayer, H.D., Dean, J.S., Cook, E.R., Gangodagamage, C., Cai, M., McDowell, N., 2012, Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality: Nature Climate Change, v. 3, p. 292-297, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693.

ISSN: 1758-6798 (online)

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality
Series title	Nature Climate Change
DOI	10.1038/nclimate1693
Volume	3
Publication Date	September 30, 2012
Year Published	2012
Language	English
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
Contributing office(s)	Fort Collins Science Center
Description	6 p.
First page	292
Last page	297
Country	United States